June 23, 2022

"If a political candidate for office says they believe the 2020 presidential election was stolen from Donald Trump, are you more likely to vote for that candidate, or less likely to vote for that candidate, or doesn’t it make a difference?"

That's a question asked on a new Quinnipiac poll of registered voters. The word "stolen" skews the question. You're not asked about a political candidate who merely questions the results of the election, worries about fraud, thinks there were problems, or thinks the investigations and legal proceedings were cut short. You're only asked about a candidate who believes the election was stolen

Anyway, with respect to that hypothetical and extreme candidate, only 45% of registered voters said they were less likely to vote for him/her — not that they'd definitely refuse to vote for him, but only they were less likely to vote for him. That is, the belief alone would not cancel him. He is not by virtue of that one belief a crazy/evil person. 

And 54% of people did not count the belief — the extreme belief — against the candidate at all. Of this group, 35% said it would make no difference, 4% didn't know or didn't answer, and 15% said they'd be more likely to vote for the person. 

What if the question had posited the belief in a less extreme form? For example: What if a political candidate questions the accuracy of the vote counts in the 2020 presidential election....? Or: What if a political candidate says there should have been more extensive investigations into the vote counts in the 2020 presidential election....? 

Elsewhere in the poll, there's this question: "Which comes closer to your point of view regarding former President Trump and the 2020 presidential election: he truly believed that there was widespread voter fraud or he deliberately spread false information that there was widespread voter fraud?"

That's less extremely stated, since there could be "widespread voter fraud" in an election that Trump still lost or that was not "stolen."

But the question is about Trump's state of mind, and the words "truly" and "deliberately" intensify the distinction. Then you're asked which side of this distinction is "closer to your point of view." 

What are you supposed to say if you think Trump was in fighting mode and grasping at hopes, subject to some wishful thinking, and not scrupulous about his factual statements? The poll shows 43% feel closer to the idea that he truly believed, and 48% feel closer to the idea that he deliberately spread false information.

There's also a question about how much responsibility Trump has for the "storming of the U.S. Capitol." Only 41% say "a lot." The rest say "some" (18%), "not much" (14%), "none at all" (25%), or they don't know (2%). 

Finally, there's a question, "Have you learned any new information about the attack on the U.S. Capitol from the January 6 hearings, or not?" Only 36% say "yes."

I'd sum all that up by saying January 6 isn't going to work to distract us from pressing ongoing problems as we go into the election season. 

43 comments:

StoughtonSconnie said...

Believing that the election was stolen and believing that election processes were skewed in ways that favored on side over the other (deliberately or not) are two completely different questions tgat the media and the left desperately want to conflate. One has no actionable outcome (Trump will never be president before Jan 20 2025 if ever again), and one has actionable outcomes that will be utterly unacceptable to the Dems, regardless of need.

Can Of Cheese for Hunter said...

Hack d- press wording that amounts to mining for thought-crime.

Buying into the Hillary-Maddow lie that Russia stole the election from it's rightful owner in 2016, well, that's OK.

Bruce Hayden said...

I for one, would be more likely to vote for a candidate who claims the election was stolen from Trump. The gutless position for Republicans is to agree with elite opinion/disinformation that it wasn’t. Of course, Democrats say that it wasn’t stolen - they are the ones who did it, and benefitted from it. But for Republicans, it is both intentionally naive and gutless.

michaele said...

Sadly for our country, Joe Biden is the president. I would not let a candidate's stance on the election being "stolen" or not deter me from voting for them if I felt good about their ideas and solutions for the mess our country is in. I do fall into the camp of thinking that "funny business" took place with how the voting rules got changed because of Covid. The door for cheating and collusion opened wider than I feel comfortable with.

Mr Wibble said...

The problem for the establishment is that as the whole world crashes and burns around us, questioning their legitimacy becomes less the act of a crazy man and more the act of a sane one. Hell, it becomes a means of defiance.

RideSpaceMountain said...

Now ask the same question about Hillary...

rhhardin said...

Trump thought that if the courts won't check the validity of the election then the Constitution must think that the electoral college acceptance was the place it contemplated for it. It certainly looked like it, from the complicated procedures it puts in place.

The modern view though is that if you steal an election, you stole it fair and square. Trump got outsmarted.

rehajm said...

January 6 isn't going to work to distract us from pressing ongoing problems a we go into the election season.

...but of course The January 6 Show is not for distraction into the 2022 election, it is the premise for the disqualification of Trump for 2024. Between no Trump on 2024 blue state ballots and the upcoming 2024 Pandemic 2, Election Boogaloo Democrats know they already have things wrapped up...

Dave Begley said...

I personally sick of Trump's drama and bad judgment. I don't want his baggage.

In a primary, I'd vote for DeSantis or Pompeo. Smarter guys. No baggage. And much, much younger.

Enigma said...

"Stolen" and extreme language would constitute a bad poll (aka "push polling") if this was a general political attitude survey. However, the relevant debate does center on whether the election was indeed stolen. More than a few Trump supporters believe this, as did more than a few Al Gore supporters believe about the year 2000 election. A soft and fuzzy gray question doesn't match the debate, nor Democrats multiple attempts to impeach.

If 4 years of Trump and 1+ year of Biden hasn't set your political opinion about 2020 then nothing will. I remain surprised that Democrats continue to focus on Trump with the revelations about Hillary 2016/Durham investigation coming out. But then, passionate zealots will not stop until they die.

tim maguire said...

If a candidate said the election was stolen, that would be a factor against them--in that when I size them up and try to decide whether they are a loose cannon, potentially crazy, this claim would count as one piece of evidence that, maybe, they are. It would go in the "no" column to be weighed against a dozen other things I'm considering.

If a candidate said that it was a lie that the election was stolen, that would count much more heavily against them. It might even be a deal breaker.

The candidate I want to vote for will recognize that our election system is a mess that allows for a large amount of unprovable fraud and they support reforms, including voter ID, paper ballots, and a return to in-person voting absent a good reason for an absentee ballot. Whether or not they think the election was stolen is much less important than their recognition that it might have been.

Owen said...

Prof A: you may be right that J6 revelations may not be enough to distract us from other pressing problems as we stagger toward the midterms. But if so, the Democrats will just find new and better distractions. The FBI appears to be quite adept at false-flag ops.

Hyphenated American said...

I wonder if there are or were similar polls about the 2016 elections.

MayBee said...

I agree with your summary.

Also, were other years' stolen elections beliefs questioned? Like, is it ok to still question GWB's first election? Or second, for that matter. Would a Democrat vote or not vote for a Democrat based on whether they support Stacy Abrahams and her accusations?
Is the discussion of the stealing of the 2020 election the only one of importance?

Levi Starks said...

What about the candidates who believe the Russians hacked the 2016 Trump win? And spent the next 4 years denying him the presidency with a slow walk investigation into all the things he “might” have done wrong, and will undoubtedly find if only we turn over enough rocks. With the allegations of Trump misdeeds there was never the disclaimer “without evidence” it was always assumed that we just haven’t looked hard enough yet. While with our current administration we’re discouraged from even reaching for the proverbial rock we wish to look under.

Carol said...

I haven't watched the hearings but heard Raffensberger said there were 28,000 undervotes for president in Georgia...oof.

Usually you get a bunch of dopes who want to vote for president but leave downticket unvoted because they don't know nuthin about all those other names.

But no 28,000 passed on Trump and Biden and any thirds. Lol

gilbar said...

Serious (non hypothetical) Question

* Do you, personally, know of ANY people MORE inclined to vote "D" after the airing of the Jan 6th show?
That is, of the people that think Trump is a criminal (or what ever); weren't they all "D"s anyway?

which leads to This Serious (non hypothetical) Question
* Do you, personally, know of ANY people MORE inclined to vote "D" after scotus abortion leak?
That is, of the people that think Abortion is a RIGHT (or what ever); weren't they all "D"s anyway?

FINALLY all this leads to THIS Serious (non hypothetical) Question
* Do you, personally, know of ANY people MORE inclined to vote "D" after the inflation/recession/gas prices/afghanistan/covid/etc of the Biden show?
That is, Ain't this election going to NOT be about Trump or Abortion; and WILL be about Biden?

wendybar said...

Trumps 4 years IN office were stolen by Progressive lies about Russian Collusion that Hillary paid for. 2 fake impeachments...and fighting for his life every second of it, and he STILL got more done than any of the Politicals in office for 50 years. It was stolen, because they can't have THAT. How would they make their families richer??

wendybar said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Heywood Rice said...

I haven't watched the hearings but heard Raffensberger said there were 28,000 undervotes for president in Georgia...oof.

Bullshit

Greg The Class Traitor said...

I'd sum all that up by saying January 6 isn't going to work to distract us from pressing ongoing problems a we go into the election season.

Yep.

If Antifa didn't exist, if the George Floyd riots didn't happen with Democrat connivence, if protesters weren't currently trying to intimidate SCOTUS members WRT an ongoing opinion, the Democrats MIGHT be able to make some hay on J6

But as the Democrats have been the American Party of political violence since the 60s, complaining about it is just not something they can successfully do with anyone not already on their side

Narayanan said...

Q: is any candidate likely to have good ideas [including for good election process] if he does not believe 2020 was stolen from Trump [= election was conducted badly]

Mike (MJB Wolf) said...

Seems to me Abrams and Clinton were more likely to say stolen than Trump, or used it as often. I resent the obligation to forget their sins just because Trump.

Rollo said...

If local party machines arranged that every ballot sent out was filled out and returned, they probably don't think of it as cheating, just diligent election work with some party workers more zealous than others. That is the future. If you live in a key Democrat precinct your ballot will be filled out, even if party workers have to come over and help you, or maybe just fill it out themselves.

john mosby said...

"the Democrats have been the American Party of political violence since the 60s"

...the 1860's, right?

JSM

Buckwheathikes said...

The Deep State isn't going to let Donald Trump be president again, even if they have to kill him. Which they're going to have to do. And they're going to do it.

Lloyd W. Robertson said...

To me as a Canadian who has taught some of this stuff, it seems clear the Constitution should be amended in order to set out conditions that must be met in order for a state's Electoral College results to be considered fair. Since Congress has a role in certifying election results, maybe Congress could set up an agency to monitor all these matters, propose things like mail-in voting but with due deliberation, etc. Almost all states are now winner take all, which usually exaggerates a victory in the Electoral College. Should this be mandatory? There could be rules about chain of custody of ballots, ID, etc.

In 1787 it was expected that the new federal government would do very little other than maintain the military, the Postal Service, and some limited law enforcement (Treasury, Coast Guard). The distribution and counting of ballots had to be done at the local level, with a lot of logistics involved. Why not let a State certify results for that State? Today there is often, but not always a Secretary of State. Can a state legislature take back this authority, even if a Secretary of State has relevant legislated powers?

The Schiff assholes are not coming within a million miles of investigating any of these questions.

Kevin said...

If you're 100% sure the election was stolen, you're an idiot.

If you're 100% sure the election was not stolen, you're also an idiot.

Michael K said...

Of course, Democrats say that it wasn’t stolen - they are the ones who did it, and benefitted from it.

They even bragged about it in Time magazine. Of course it was stolen. However, Trump really annoyed me when he switched his endorsement from Mo Brooks to the RINO because Brooks said, "It's time to move on." It is time to move on. If Trump thinks the 2024 election will be contested on cheating in 2020, I'm out. The trouble is that GOP voters have been traumatized by years of politicians promising things they had no intention of doing. Of those 14 Senators who voted with the Democrats on the gun bill, more than half had A ratings from the NRA. Maybe the NRA blew it but I suspect those Senators are liars. Every GOP voter is watching DeSantis like a hawk to see if he is for real or just a politician. Trump is the gold standard now of keeping promises. We'll see.

Lem said...

Stealing an election in not a crime. The crime is crying foul because those tear leaves are the cries of an insurrectionist… or something.

I can’t decide if it’s a tragedy or a comedy.

Rollo said...

It's not so much what you think as how you say it. Politicians playing to their base can make even rational beliefs sound nutty.

Rollo said...

It's not so much what you think as how you say it. Politicians playing to their base can make even rational beliefs sound nutty.

Zev said...

Depends who he/she is running against, obviously.

wendybar said...

12 Minutes of Every Single Prominent Democrat You Know Repeatedly Denying Election Results

https://youtu.be/XX2Ejqjz6TA

Seamus said...

Maybe the 2020 election wasn't stolen, but up until Election Day, the Dems were telling us that Trump's reelection would likely mean the end of democracy as we knew it. If they really believed that, why wouldn't they be willing to engage in as much voting fraud as necessary (and as could be pulled off without getting caught, of course) to prevent that from happening? Wouldn't it almost be obligatory?

Jamie said...

The door for cheating and collusion opened wider than I feel comfortable with.

Well stated, and matches the starting point of my own opinion about 2020 election shenanigans. My end point is that I think it's likely that those shenanigans, with the prior four-plus years of "Trump is a crook! Just wait, we'll find something that will convince everybody", were a heavy enough thumb on the D side of the scale to make a difference in some critical states.

And that said, man, I hope and pray Trump can be satisfied with endorsing someone (such as DeSantis). He's so old, so vulnerable to both taunts and his own ego, and - especially - so likely to get out the anti-Trump-because-of-decorum vote.

BUMBLE BEE said...

I would say that perhaps they watched the poll watchers cleared out of the voting precinct and the whiteboard applied over the windows in violation of election laws. To which I'd say they were widely versed and aware.

BUMBLE BEE said...

What exactly did Barr have to do with Dominion voting systems?

Clyde said...

From what I observed at the time, I believed the 2020 election was decided by fraud. Nothing that has happened since then has dissuaded me from that belief. However, I don't want to see future candidates relitigate the 2020 election, because it's a dead letter. We've had 18 disastrous months of Biden*, and we have many more to go. We don't have a parliamentary system where someone so catastrophically incompetent can be removed from office by a vote of no-confidence. We are stuck with him and his cackling, equally catastrophically incompetent understudy. So, I want to see opposition candidates who will work to undo all of the horrifically bad decisions and policies that Biden* and his henchmen have inflicted on America. I don't want uniparty Quislings who will say that we are stuck with his bad policies. I also want to see the next President be someone who understands that the permanent Washington bureaucracy is also the enemy, and will take a figurative flamethrower to it, purging it of those who would obstruct making America great again. I don't know if that's even possible, but I don't want to have someone who thinks that the Swampers are on his side.

Greg The Class Traitor said...

Kevin said...
If you're 100% sure the election was stolen, you're an idiot.

I am 100% certain that Fulton County Democrat "vote counter" kicked out all poll watchers and press, then resumed counting votes.

I am 100% certain that Trump was ahead before they did that.
Because these are both clear matters of public record.

I am further 100% certain that the proper response to partisan "vote counters" violating election law is that none of the votes they counted count, and any change their "votes" make to the election are by definition fraud.

So, for all intents and purposes, I am 100% certain the election was stolen in GA.

And I'm right

realestateacct said...

Democrats and violence go back at least to Tammany brawls during Aaron Burr's lifetime.

Kevin said...

So, for all intents and purposes, I am 100% certain the election was stolen in GA.

All those things can be true and Trump still could have lost.

We don’t have a system that allows us to know the actual vote count.

And until we do arguing about the antics surrounding the election isn’t going to change anything.

Greg The Class Traitor said...

Kevin said...
All those things can be true and Trump still could have lost.

Yes. But "that which is rewarded is repeated."
Once a side engages in vote fraud, either you automatically give the victory to the other side, or you destroy people's trust in the election process

We don’t have a system that allows us to know the actual vote count.
Tie goes to the not cheater

And until we do arguing about the antics surrounding the election isn’t going to change anything.
No, pointing out that Biden's "victory" was fraudulent, and that therefore his Administration and everything it does is illegitimate, imposes a cost on the cheaters.

This is a good thing