From "How Kyiv Has Withstood Russia’s Attacks" (NYT). The internal quote is from Scott Boston, senior defense analyst at RAND Corporation.
At the link, the text is accompanied by excellent graphics — including "street view" maps. Highly informative.
Some excerpts:
Russian leadership was deluded that Ukraine would collapse at the first sign of fighting, and that President Volodymyr Zelensky would flee, said Nick Reynolds, a military analyst at the Royal United Services Institute....
“You need to be good at this,” said Scott Boston, an analyst at RAND who studies the Russian military and land warfare. “And I don’t think I have any real evidence that Russia has trained to do large-scale urban warfare.”...
Even in places where Russians got closer, they had few major routes to enter the city. That predictability is part of what makes a well-defended city so difficult to capture.... In a fight outside of Brovary last month, seen in footage released by Ukrainian forces, Russian tanks were sitting ducks, ambushed and destroyed by the Ukrainian artillery fire and anti-tank missiles....
Ukrainians appeared to further constrain the Russian advance by blowing up bridges and dams, flooding areas north of Kyiv.
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56 comments:
Not all unsuccessful strategies are dumb but “the other guy will just fold” is fundamentally dumb. It’s commonly used by divorcing spouses in litigation.
I very rarely compliment the New York Times, but that was an amazing media presentation. They do this kind of thing (blending factual summaries, maps, and videos) very well. If they could only take this approach to other topics. Stick to reporting information, rather than manipulating public opinion.
"Never believe your own press." Somebody once said.
I guess nobody told the oligarchical generals that the enemy also gets a vote.
If your plan depends on your opponent not being very good, you need a new plan. Even if your opponent isn’t very good.
Cdrsalamander Twitter is the best source for info on the war.
Hopefully we learn the right lessons from this
Reposting from the other thread...
I have to suspect that when this is over a key moment will be Zelanskyy's refusal to leave Kiev. The Russians and the West both probably figured that the Ukrainians would get steamrolled and that he'd run. Hell, I think that the Biden admin was counting on it, hoping that they could set him up in a puppet government in Lviv or Poland while the US quietly negotiated with the Russians. Putin gets his goals in Eastern Ukraine, while the US got a compliant Ukrainian government and a quick end to the war.
Instead, he stayed in the city, the Ukrainian government and military did not collapse, and NATO has been forced to commit to supporting the Ukraining war effort with sanctions and military supplies, exposing its own internal tensions and weaknesses. Even if Ukraine is eventually forced to concede eastern portions of its country to the Russians, the Ukrainians will still come out of this as the ones who bloodied the Russians' nose, and Zelanskyy comes out as a hero and likely a major player in Europe.
Putin believed all the blue sky and sunshine Trump was selling. The failed dream of two enabling narrsassistic personally disorders.
From what I've read elsewhere, the Russians brought together military elements from disparate locations from all over Russia -- elements that never trained together, had at best a weak understanding of overall tactics and objectives, and were armed with a wide range of equipment, from modern to nearly obsolete, further complicating supply issues.
How many times have stupid leftist, belittled those that correctly claimed the only purpose to the 2cnd amendment was to protect citizens against the Government? Hurrumphing about taking down an army of tanks, fighter jets, and Nukes. With little pea shooters.
It seems to be widely acknowledged that Ukraine will no longer contest Russia's claim to Crimea. That is a win for Putin--a win that events since Feb. 24 have solidified. Next: the two areas, right on the border with Russia, that are collectively known as Donbass. There has been continuous violence there since 2014, with Ukraine not accepting Russia's claims. Zelensky is saying it was a mistake for Russia to fight for Mariupol, down on the Sea of Azov; is he implying that he will accept Russian claims to Donbass?
In Georgia in 2008, Putin took much of the country and then retreated to the two "most Russian" areas. Is it possible that something similar was always his plan for Ukraine? Of course the Georgian fighting was over in a few weeks, and substantial Russian withdrawals took a couple more months. If Russian troops have suffered high casualties, this may be an indication that Putin is to some degree restraining himself from killing Ukrainian civilians. Of course, he may also have under-estimated Zelensky, or the oligarchs who back Zelensky as opposed to the oligarchs who back Putin. Abramovich is somehow an oligarch who is loved by both sides.
An alternative view, that this was mostly expected, with Putin was going almost gently at first in hopes of a surrender, even though he did not expect it, and is now ramping up to the brutality he was always prepared for, was put out by Samo Burja on Razib Khan's podcast. The evidence he marshals for this is considerable. I don't know if Burja is right, but he's clearly smarter and more knowledgeable than I am.
That the Ukrainians were able to tactically “enhance” the usual spring mud season by limited, precise releases of water is probably one of the more underreported stories of this war.
"War is a democracy. The enemy gets a vote."
Or, more likely, mischaracterized objectives brayed to support a handmade tale, discriminate use of force, isolation of military and paramilitary agitators, identification of Wuhan-style labs, probably other illicit activities, too, since the Biden/Maidan/Slavic Spring, eight years, then two years, in progress. Now the empathetic international community cares? Not likely.
Let's see...we've got the Afghan's fighting off Alexander the Great, the English, the Russians, and then the Americans. We've got the Ukrainians fighting off the Russians. The Vietnamese fighting off the Americans. There are more examples of the smaller country or region holding off invading large armies throughout history.
Maybe there are a lot of unfounded, overly optimistic expectations by the super powers when entering these conflicts. Maybe there's a wide gap between what we (super powers) actually know about those lands and people we're moving on and what they know about us. Like, super powers are super because of the weaponry they hold. But if they're not willing to use all of their hardest weaponry then they are keeping themselves below super power level. And, hence, they become beatable. Or, at least vulnerable enough to bring to a draw.
And importantly, maybe there's a lot more serious heart and soul involved in defending your own country, village, neighborhood than there is in taking a bullet while in some foreign land you have no feeling for whatsoever. Add to that the prospect that if the leadership is not believed, liked, loved, or respected, it makes a conquering army very vulnerable. Any setback can create chaos in the invaders.
“I don’t need a ride. I need more ammunition.”
The definitive line from Zelensky. Leadership matters. Same deal in the US.
F the NY Times. I don't know why you pay attention to it. They've been so wrong and dishonest that nothing they write should be given any credence or time.
Howard, I always wonder how some crazed mind is going to tie any topic to Trump.
You need a new hobby.
Howard - "Putin believed all the blue sky and sunshine Trump was selling."
So in the lefties idiot view, Trump finally caused that world war they've been predicting for 5 years. Okay.
Also completely ignoring the fact that it was Trump that finally sent Javelins, which is probably the number one reason Russia was not able to win quickly.
The Russian military doctrine has not changed since the Battle of Berlin. The only problem is that success was dependent on. 4 to 1 numerical advantage in men and equipment.
The Russians were not so delusional as to believe they could capture Kyiv and control Ukraine with 200k troops. Their move towards Kyiv was a feint designed to occupy Ukraine's army while the Russians attacked Ukraine's east coast from Crimea to Donbas. Ukraine's east is both mostly Russian and the most valuable territory to Russia strategically. The Russian military's mission with respect to Europe hasn't really evolved in seventy years. Their mission is to break things, not take things, and that's what they did to Ukraine's major cities in the east. If Russia can't have it, well then no one else can have it either.
'It’s really been kind of astonishing, in the sort of the cynicism, the stupidity with which the operation was carried out.'"
It’s really been kind of astonishing, the stupidity with which Western so-called "experts" were terrified of the Russian army and urging Ukraine to simply surrender.
Putin got more flexible, Howie. He pushed that reset button.
Now go get yer shine box…
"Russian leadership was deluded that Ukraine would collapse at the first sign of fighting, and that President Volodymyr Zelensky would flee"
Hey, remember when Biden did his part by offering Zelensky a ride and encouraging him to flee...at the first sign of fighting?
So in the lefties idiot view, Trump finally caused that world war they've been predicting for 5 years.
I think it is unkind to confront the delusions of the clinically insane. It is better to just ignore them.
As to the Russians "failure" in Ukraine. They will get what they want, but at a far greater cost than what they imagined. It is mostly a boon for the global military-industrial complex.
Let's see...we've got the Afghan's fighting off Alexander the Great, the English, the Russians, and then the Americans. We've got the Ukrainians fighting off the Russians. The Vietnamese fighting off the Americans. There are more examples of the smaller country or region holding off invading large armies throughout history.
In almost every case the "little guy" has had the backing of a major power. The Vietnamese wouldn't have lasted had they not had Russian equipment and supplies, and safe haven in North Vietnam. Ditto the Afghans with northwest Pakistan, and now the Ukrainians.
Insurgents don't win wars on their own. They're fodder in great power conflicts.
Howard said...
Putin believed all the blue sky and sunshine Trump was selling. The failed dream of two enabling narrsassistic personally disorders.
Howard has a Trump worm in his brain. He and Inga are the last two Russia hoax believers.
Cdrsalamander Twitter is the best source for info on the war.
Google "Kyiv has fallen", and behold all the conflicting reports. You can find any outcome you want.
One of the interesting things about this kabuki is what it says about a potential insurrection in the US.
Yes, as one of our 10 watt pols said, the US does have F-15s and nuclear weapons.
On the other hand, it can't use either in an internal insurrection. Not in any way that would be helpful to the non-insurrectionists anyway.
Seems like some pretty low tech stuff is keeping the Russian's stopped. And I would bet that the US citizenry is much better armed than the Ukraine citizenry.
John Henry
Mr Wibble,
How do we know Zelensky is in Kiev?
At least a few of the videos he has done that purportedly show him outside walking around are greenscreen, shot in a studio somewhere. Most of the indoor stuff could have been shot anywhere.
He may have stayed in Kiev. Or not. Neither you or I have any way of knowing.
But kudos to Z for at least pretending to be in Kiev. (Whether he was or was not)
John LGBTQBNY Henry
I wonder if Putin's advisors told him, "We'll be greeted as liberators"
The Second World War experience on the Eastern Front sank deep into the Russian psyche. However one fights in mountains or forests or jungles or swamps, the assumption seemed to be that on the vast plains of Ukraine, fighting is going to be more or less what it was in 1941-1945. But changing technologies made WWII different from WWI, and they have made this conflict different from the Great Patriotic War of 70 years ago. Changing demographics, too. A more crowded Europe means more urban fighting and less room for maneuver. Or so it looks to me writing about the war from the other side of the world.
JK Brown said...
Hey, remember when Biden did his part by offering Zelensky a ride and encouraging him to flee...at the first sign of fighting?
Yes. This underscores my point about the instincts of non-politicians like Zelensky and Trump compared to a life-long politicians like Biden.
The instinct of a life-long politician like Biden is for personal, political survival as the key to holding power, or at minimum retaining a golden parachute for oneself at the end.
Someone coming from outside politics to service of country understands the more complex reality that actually holding a real movement of people together requires leadership exemplified by self sacrifice and risk.
(CNN) Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has turned down an offer from the United States of evacuation from the capital city Kyiv, the Ukraine embassy in Britain said Saturday on Twitter.
“The fight is here; I need ammunition, not a ride,” Zelensky told the US, according to the embassy.
madAsHell said...
Cdrsalamander Twitter is the best source for info on the war.
Google "Kyiv has fallen", and behold all the conflicting reports. You can find any outcome you want.
Twitter, Instagram, etc. are about the only places you will find the truth. And lies. You have to figure out which is which.
Where you will not find the truth:
Anything affiliated with the U.S. government
Anything affiliated with the Russian government
Anything affiliated with the Ukrainian government.
The LAST place to find the truth is....Google.
Howard writes, "Putin believed all the blue sky and sunshine Trump was selling."
Howard must be as bald as an egg, otherwise, he'd wonder about those fast-moving objects that keep ruffling his hair as they whiz over his head.
Michael K. writes, "Howard has a Trump worm in his brain. He and Inga are the last two Russia hoax believers."
Acolytes of a threadbare religion.
Milo Minderbinder said...
"The Russians were not so delusional as to believe they could capture Kyiv and control Ukraine with 200k troops. Their move towards Kyiv was a feint designed to occupy Ukraine's army while the Russians attacked Ukraine's east coast from Crimea to Donbas. Ukraine's east is both mostly Russian and the most valuable territory to Russia strategically. The Russian military's mission with respect to Europe hasn't really evolved in seventy years. Their mission is to break things, not take things, and that's what they did to Ukraine's major cities in the east. If Russia can't have it, well then no one else can have it either."
4/3/22, 9:03 AM
No.
The idea was to split Ukraine from Kiev to Odessa. That way they could control all of Ukraines black sea coast. The Kremlin thought it could achieve it's major goals in 24 hours. If they just wanted the Donbas and Lugansk then that's where they would have concentrated all their forces to begin with. As long as Mariopol holds out they won't even hold eastern Ukraine.
There is a rumor going around that the US is going to send Ukraine some of our obsolete Abrams tanks. That would be a game changer.
Almost certainly we are looking at some kind of regrouping and redefinition of objectives by Russian military. People who declare Ukrainian victory now are not any different than people declaring Russian victory a month ago.
Talk about battle for Kiev is nonsense. Just look at the map, north of Kiev is city called Vyshgorod and north of Vyshgorod is a huge body of water kept by Vyshgorod dam. Whoever controls this dam, controls Kiev. As long as Ukranians kept this dam it made no sense to try to take Kiev, because the other side would blow up the dam and flood the whole city. Kiev is city on hills, so those hills would instantly become islands and lower areas would become lakes.
I think the real surprise happened west of the city of Donetsk. That is where the front hardly moved at all since the beginning. Ukranian forces are still shelling Donetsk suburbs. Some reports say that Russians are moving troops to crash Ukranian resistance there and Ukranians are not liberating Kiev but also moving troops from Kiev to Donbass to prevent Russians from doing that. We may be looking at the possibility of major field battle in west Donbass, just like WW2. Each side is about 100,000 strong.
I, for one, am glad Trump's disrespect to the leaders of NATO, over their failure to maintain adequate funding levels for the organization, led them to be a bit more ready now for this problem than they all otherwise would have been. If only he could have accomplished this without mean tweets, I guess.
Howard - Putin decided to go to war on YOUR crook's watch.
So - F U
Putin knows The US has a useless feckless old decrepit dim-witting corrupt Potemkin Crook in office.
Putin knows what he is doing.
Can Of Cheese for Hunter said...
"Howard - Putin decided to go to war on YOUR crook's watch.
So - F U"
He and others like him are desperate for you to forget that they voted for this. This is all on them. In November the grown ups will be back in charge and we'll somehow have to clean up this mess.
Report:
Bucha. Russian tanks were smashing civilian cars with people inside. in some of them, dead bodies are still inside. - video by Ukrainian journalist and blogger Denys Kazanskyi
It's not just Putin. It's a lot of psychopaths in the Russian military. When they are not indiscriminately killing or raping for the thrill of it, they are looting homes to send frying pans and shoes off the feet of dead kids back home.
"Let not any one pacify his conscience by the delusion that he can do no harm if he takes no part, and forms no opinion. Bad men need nothing more to compass their ends, than that good men should look on and do nothing"
-John Stuart Mill
I have no idea how this is going to end but I do agree with Richard Fernandez that Putin was winning until he actually invaded Ukraine.
If Putin had followed the advice offered in the Belmont Club just before the Ukraine War, Russia might still be a first-rank power. On Feb 21, 2022, I argued that he had no chance of conquering Ukraine and would be crazy to try. “Fears over Vladimir Putin’s threatened invasion of Ukraine continue to grow despite the fact that the effort would burst both Russia’s military and economy, not to mention ruining its foreign relations.
My own conclusion was that Biden was using Ukraine in a wag the dog routine to hide his own failures.
The Biden regime, which has no interest in the US southern border, has expressed alarming determination to stop a Russian invasion of Ukraine. Why are they so interested in a corrupt country that has no strategic importance to us ? Certainly the Biden family has profited from Ukraine.
Putin fooled us all by doing something foolish.
Mark said...
Report:
Bucha. Russian tanks were smashing civilian cars with people inside. in some of them, dead bodies are still inside. - video by Ukrainian journalist and blogger Denys Kazanskyi
This source has CIA written all over it-
The UkraineWorld project emerged from a volunteer initiative helping international journalists during the Euromaidan Revolution of 2013-2014. Today it operates thanks to the support by Internews Network (programme U-Media funded by USAID), the International Renaissance Foundation, the Ukrainian Institute, the Ukrainian Cultural Foundation, the NATO Centre in Ukraine, and other donors.
Howard--at 715--the King of the Non Sequitors--got a lot of attention with his tweet. So maybe he's trolling us.
That said, it's a military truism that no battle plan survives contact with the enemy. Putin expected a cakewalk. He got a cockup. The spring mud on the Ukrainian plain didn't help.
I'm so happy to help April cough up a hair ball.
Rusty said...
No.
The idea was to split Ukraine from Kiev to Odessa. That way they could control all of Ukraines black sea coast.
And...Eastern Ukraine is where the majority of their natural gas reserves(second largest in Europe) are located. Crimea has quite a but of natural gas, too.
Darkisland,
You're correct that it's entirely possible he isn't in Kiev. The key point is that he doesn't appear to have taken the US invitation to flee. He isn't giving press conferences from some government in exile in Warsaw.
"Howard--at 715--the King of the Non Sequitors--got a lot of attention with his tweet. So maybe he's trolling us."
That is all he is ever doing. Again, maybe I am giving him too much credit, but I don't think he's stupid enough to believe even a small percentage of the shit he writes. No one could be that stupid.
In a reasonable world, one would begin to question the intelligence of all these subject experts paid for by the news channels to feed us opinions as if they were fact. But we don't live in a reasonable world, we live in this one where we've been trained to believe an opinion from the right expert is a fact. (e.g. Intelligence experts all attest to Hunter Biden's laptop is just Russian misinformation).
Highly improbable, but not impossible, Chris Lopes @6:27pm.
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