February 26, 2022

"Ukrainian forces are holding on to their capital even after hours of overnight street fighting that included explosions and bursts of gunfire...."

"Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said the fate of the nation was 'being decided right now,' and at daybreak, he posted a video of himself, unshaven, on the capital’s streets — proof of his apparent commitment to remain in Kyiv, even as Western officials warn about the possibility of his being captured or killed.... While some Ukrainians have picked up arms and created improvised weaponry, more than 50,000 others have fled, and 100,000 have been internally displaced. Ukraine has accused Russia of targeting civilian infrastructure, which the Kremlin denies...."

WaPo reports.

42 comments:

gilbar said...

apparently, Russian KIA's are about 2% of their force already
I have a HARD Time believing that, but that's what "they" are saying
(maybe 2% causalities? not KIA's? If they Really have had 2 thousand deaths.. how Many wounded?)

gilbar said...

What does Russia do, if this falls apart? Go Nuclear?

Howard said...

Gilbar: Hopefully Putin gets the Romanov treatment.

JAB5ORS said...

I need ammunition, not a ride. Zelensky

RoseAnne said...

A comparison of Trudeau and Zelensky leadership styles would be interesting.

Trudeau claimed an emergency and nearly crippled (and may still) the Canadian banking system because of horns(????). Zelensky is doing everything he can to retain control of his capital city one more day to save lives - including his own.

I recognize that Zelensky is running his own propaganda campaign, but even under actual physical assault he is doing a better job of communicating than Trudeau.

BUMBLE BEE said...

But... what really happened?

Rusty said...

RoseAnne.
For one thing Zelenski hasn't gone into hiding and incommunicado for a week. He's doing what a real leader does. Lead by example.
Notice how the usual suspect are all of a sudden bloodthirsty hawks who voted for Biden. Without which this would have never happened.


dbp said...

If the Ukrainians decide to fight, then there is a stand-off: It's not in either country's interest for 10s of thousands of deaths on each side. This make it in the interest of both sides to reach a negotiated settlement: I envision something like Ukraine agrees to never join NATO or host Western forces. They further agree to give greater autonomy to the Russian speaking provinces in Eastern Ukraine. Russia, in turn, agrees to respect the current borders of Ukraine. The only way Ukraine gets to "yes" is that they have to show a willingness to engage in a war of attrition and then they have to be willing to give Putin a face-saving agreement. It will be a delicate balance: If casualties get too high, both sides will feel that their sunk costs have risen to the point where they cannot accept anything other than complete victory.

NorthOfTheOneOhOne said...

gilbar said...

What does Russia do, if this falls apart? Go Nuclear?

Go get some more Russians (there's plenty) and run them into the fray. That's how Russians fight and why the Red Army took so many casualties at Stalingrad and during the Winter War.

JK Brown said...

"Explosions and bursts of gunfire"? In street fighting? Well, thankfully there has been no honking or we'd know it's serious.

Achilles said...

Zelensky seems like an actual leader.

If he dies now he is a martyr.

Achilles said...

gilbar said...

apparently, Russian KIA's are about 2% of their force already
I have a HARD Time believing that, but that's what "they" are saying
(maybe 2% causalities? not KIA's? If they Really have had 2 thousand deaths.. how Many wounded?)


Putin invaded a country of 41 million people with ~150,000 troops.

And those 41 million were armed fairly well.

This is not going to end well for Russia either way. Now they have to choose defeat or mass casualty.

This was a really dumb move. That is why I didn't expect it.

Maynard said...

I do not believe any of the early reports of casualties.

It is propaganda warfare.

Michael K said...

The Ukrainians are finding those "assault rifles" useful. Thousands of them passed out to the people. My kind of people.

gilbar said...

North of the 101 said something like...
Go get some more Russians (there's plenty) and run them into the fray. That's how Russians fight and why the Red Army took so many casualties at Stalingrad and during the Winter War.


Stalingrad and Finland were what? 80 (EIGHTY!) years ago. Those were different Russians
a closer Russia would be the one that lost less than 10,000 in Afghanstan in More than 10 years
That's (apparently) HALF as much a year, as they've already (apparently) lost in THREE Days

And those 9,500 Afghanstan loses SO Freaked them out; that they turned tail and RAN...
After only TEN years! Imagine what a much of skirt waist-ed panty boys you'd have to be,
to run out of Afghanstan after only TEN YEARS!!! jeeze!

Bender said...

The Ukrainians HAVE decided to fight, dbp, and they reject your advice. As Ukrainians, they believe that THEY know what is in their best interests rather than people who tell them to capitulate or compromise on their freedom and sovereignty.

That's what a freedom loving, brave people do.

Slava Ukraini.

Big Mike said...

Remembering my time in the Pentagon in 1969-1970, I think it would be foolish to believe any statements about casualties, especially estimates of enemy casualties. But we do need to send the Ukrainians antitank missiles and lots more 7.62x39 mm ammo.

The Drill SGT said...

Javelins, AT mines and claymores

In this drama the Russians want to be Manteuffel.

The Ukrainians want to play the Finns

Yancey Ward said...

We won't know the truth of what is happening on the ground for weeks, probably. You really can't trust the reporting from anyone any longer. Like Achilles above- I didn't think Putin was stupid enough to try to take the entire country, but was wrong apparently. Multi-millions againt 100-200K isn't really tenable if those multi-millions want to make it hurt, and the Ukrainians look to be up to the fight.

Still, it was the US's idiotic policies over the last 30 years that led to this debacle. Even if it costs Putin and the Russians a lot of blood and treasure, it wasn't moral, it wasn't smart, and it isn't getting better.

John henry said...

Achilles,

How will armed are the Ukrainian citizenry in general? Before they started passing out rifles wholesale last week.

The Wikipedia article on "gun law in Ukraine" says it is hard to get a license to own a gun and they are 88 in gun ownership.

So it will be interesting to see how they do against the Russians. It sounds like they may be giving them a run for their money.

It makes me wonder about the implications for the us should the shit hit the fan.

In the us we have 120 privately owned guns per citizen. I'd be willing to bet that there are at least 100 rounds per gun ready for use.

John LGBTQBNY Henry

Browndog said...

It looks like Putin lost the propaganda war. Shelling schools and apartment buildings was a tactic mistake. Even Germany is forced to publicly pretend to denounce Putin and offer aid to Ukraine.

At this point, the only thing keeping Russian in SWIFT is Biden.

Browndog said...

Achilles said...

This is not going to end well for Russia either way. Now they have to choose defeat or mass casualty.

This was a really dumb move. That is why I didn't expect it.


Same here.

I don't think even the Russians thought this was going to go down the way it is.

rcocean said...

Someone was talking about Putin killing the Ukrainian President. Absurd. Putin wants him to negotiate a peace.

And The President claiming he was in Kiev, cause me through free assocation, to remember the head of the French Communist party during WW II. He constantly sent out radio messages, documents and flyers to his "Troops" throughout the German Occupation (after June 22, 1941 naturally) claiming he was "somewhere in France" and "Heading the Resisance".

In fact he was Moscow the whole time. LOL!

Bender said...

From AFP -

The Kremlin has accused Ukraine of prolonging the military conflict by refusing to negotiate as Russia pressed on with its invasion of the pro-Western country
https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1497578447614349312

Bender said...

Apparently it is back to Soviet Tass and Pravda with all the false propaganda being reported to the Russian people on Russian media. But truth is leaking through with the demonstrations in Moscow and St. Petersburg.

Maynard said...

We have friends who work for Raytheon. They are going at it 24/7 because of the invasion. Their missile prices are going up as well.

Bender said...

Commentary is now starting to float the possibility that, the longer this goes on, the more disenchanted the military leadership becomes, leadership that might not have wanted this action anyway, and the more impatient that Putin's inner circle becomes.

If he REALLY wants to go back the USSR, Putin might find himself getting the Soviet treatment with it being announced that he has suffered a sudden and unexpected fatal heart attack, like the old days. Or, to regain world respect, they might instead openly depose him and parade him out like a criminal.

Narr said...

There is no deception without self-deception, and Putin is proving it.

He has painted himself a picture, as an honest-to-god warlord put it. He may have an iron will (I think he's sick and knows it) but even with all his advantages the question is the will of Ukrainians.

The idea that modern military-grade small arms and ammo are hard to find in those notoriously corrupt regions is laughable IMO. And it only takes a few determined natives to wreak havoc on a regular force--as has been shown repeatedly in our lifetimes.

The American Civil War About Between Among and Within the States resulted in the Lieber Code regulating who could be considered a legal combatant or not--a mere armed civilian without proper military uniform and affiliation (what would be dubbed 'francs-tireurs' in the War of German Unification a few years later) can be considered legally a criminal or terrorist and dealt with accordingly. (And I don't mean with decades of court proceedings.)

Under international law (I know, but hear me out) the Russians can treat free-lance civilian snipers as illegal combatants. We did in Iraq and Afghanistan--of course in our case the teenage hick who didn't like the infidel perverts taking over his country and got caught taking potshots could end up in Gitmo for the rest of his natural life.

Much will be revealed and clarified as both sides start taking some prisoners, whether they are legal combatants or not.

Bender said...

Apparently Biden has blithered on today with some weak and uninspiring statement about sanctions taking time. Thankfully, he's not the only card in the deck. Europe is stepping forward.

The real sanction that needs to be taken up at this point is the covert one. The sanction of not removing Putin from some financial program, etc., but removing Putin, period.

Bender said...

And not only punitive action against Russia, but against Belarus.

tim in vermont said...

The very last place I would look for information about the current war. would be the Washington Post, which is nothing more than a CIA, FBI, and "Interagency Consensus" megaphone. They are way too deep into this.

tim in vermont said...

Bender, were you around and following politics in the lead up to the Iraq war? You seem to have zero awareness of how war fever is ginned up. I fell for it back then, and have had a lot of time to reflect on my sins. The Washington Post sits on a throne of lies. It did then, it did during Russiagate, and it does now.

Chris Lopes said...

" The sanction of not removing Putin from some financial program, etc., but removing Putin, period."

If the war is going as badly for him as reported (a big "if"), the oligarchs that support him may do it for us. A losing war that produces nothing but dead soldiers and crippling sanctions is bad for business. Vlad may have seriously miscalculated here.

Readering said...

Remember, Ukraine is not even a country. Biden's CIA mercenaries can only hold out for so long.


n.n said...

They had 32 trimesters to reconcile and offer remediation to the people who were dispossessed in the violent Western-backed coup in 2014... from Tripoli to Cairo to Damascus to Kiev. Jerusalem, their attempt to indoctrinate and abort democracy in darkness was unsuccessful.

Bender said...

You mistake me for someone else if you think I have ever read the Washington Post or the New York Times.

I did, however, watch TV on September 11, 2001, and had to evacuate a government building earlier that morning when the plane that crashed into the Pentagon a couple miles away was approaching, and I watched the stream of government employees walking out of DC because the Metro was shut down.

I realized that the world changed that day. And that what was arguably an acceptable risk in Saddam Hussein before, with the possibility in the 1990s that I might see a flash in the sky one day and then be evaporated because he had given some nuke to some terrorist group with a truck, was no longer an acceptable risk. He had to go. I didn't need to look to some MSM to tell me that, it was obvious to anyone with reason.

And, whatever your point was in bringing this up, I didn't need the Washington Post to tell me that the Ukraine people are putting this country to shame with their standing firm and resisting the invaders. Slava Ukraini.

Bender said...

And I didn't/don't need the Washington Post to tell me why the EVIL of the Soviet Union needed to be -- and still needs to be -- utterly destroyed, whether they are trying to subjugate a free and sovereign Ukraine or threatening Poland, or Hungary, or Czechoslovakia or Estonia, Latvia or Lithuania or anywhere else in the world.

Bender said...

olexander scherba🇺🇦@olex_scherba·1h

Less shooting in the last hour in Kyiv. But reports of Putin’s heavy bombers heading to Kyiv from Crimea. Sirens wailing. All go to the shelters.


https://twitter.com/olex_scherba/status/1497675435580305413

Bender said...

After Biden refused, kicking and screaming, to back removal of Russia from SWIFT, the EU has allowed the U.S. to attach its name to a joint statement announcing the imposition of that sanction.

Bender said...

Elon Musk's Starlink satellite system providing internet access is now active in Ukraine.
Satellite terminals are on the way to Ukraine. This could be useful if Russia’s attacks destabilize Ukraine’s internet.

Column of Russian special forces defeated near Hostomel "Kadyrovites," named so for the Head of the Chechen Republic Ramzan Kadyrov.
According to Channel 24 sources, the Ukrainian military blew up an echelon of 56 tanks that included General Magomed Tushayev, who was killed.

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent

Bender said...

@olgatokariuk
·
33m
I was asked today by a foreign TV presenter what is my biggest fear in the current situation. Frankly, I was irritated at this question. We, Ukrainian adults, do not have time to fear and think of dark scenarios. We feel anger and determination to defend our children and our land


https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1497709093796126722

Rusty said...

"What does Russia do, if this falls apart? Go Nuclear?"
The longer this goes on the greater the pressure will be to remove Putin by his own people. That is my read on it anyway.
The object of this exercise is to gain territory for the glory of Russia. At some point Putins ego won't be worth the cost of Russian lives.

" Readering said...
Remember, Ukraine is not even a country. Biden's CIA mercenaries can only hold out for so long."
Look at you! Such a big boy! Can you find your way home? Do you have your address stitched in your clothes?