January 11, 2022

Who wins and who loses if the political divide on Covid breaks down — as it seems to be breaking down because of Omicron?

I'm reading "Why More Americans Are Saying They’re ‘Vaxxed and Done’/COVID has always divided Americans. The Omicron wave is even dividing the vaccinated" (The Atlantic).
Some 2022 Democrats are sounding like 2020 Republicans. In spring 2020, many Republicans, including President Donald Trump, insisted that COVID was hardly worse than the flu; that its fatality risk was comparable to an everyday activity, like driving in a car; and that an obsessive focus on cases wouldn’t give an accurate picture of what was going on in the pandemic.

That's not exactly how I remember it (and I watched Trump's Covid show every day). I accept the use of "comparable" but not "hardly worse." But those who loathed Trump agonized over every comparison to the flu because it seemed he wasn't taking things seriously enough. I think he was trying to steel us for the fight and avert panic, but anti-Trump people were already in a panic over Trump and — in that election year — they wanted Trump to fail. So I see why people split politically over something that wasn't inherently political.

In the current Omicron wave, these Republican talking points seem to have mostly come true—for most vaccinated non-senior adults, who are disproportionately Democrats....

You can see right there that the Atlantic writer — Derek Thompson — is going to say that the Democrats have changed their beliefs because the facts have changed. But the political landscape also has changed: The Democrats are in power, they're in charge of the long hard fight, and they're the ones who stand to lose in elections coming up later in the year. That's reason to act like we'll be fine, we can make it. Keep calm and tough it out.

The messiness of Omicron data—record-high cases! but much milder illness!—has deepened our COVID Rashomon, in which different communities are telling themselves different stories about what’s going on, and coming to different conclusions about how to lead their lives. That’s true even within populations that, a year ago, were united in their desire to take the pandemic seriously and were outraged by those who refused to do so....

The article-writer doesn't go anywhere with the political analysis he sets up. He doesn't even see the political question I put in my post title, which I wrote when I was a quarter of the way through his piece. So let me try to answer my own question. 

Here's why the breakdown of the political divide could help Democrats. If fighting Omicron is a losing game, the perception that it's not a fight anymore keeps the Democrats, who are in charge, from looking like losers. If Omicron is accepted — relatively benign, unstoppably fast-moving — then there's less expectation that the government will take forcible actions and displace private decision-making. 

You might think, that's what Democrats do — take forcible actions and displace private decision-making — that's their brand. But they could take forcible actions and displace private decision-making about something other than Covid, something where their failures won't rack up so quickly and obviously.

Enough about politicians. What about ordinary people? What should you do about Omicron and should it have a damned thing to do with politics? Should you keep making demands of other people, or should you look to your own health and the health of your family? If the answer to that question is political — and I'm afraid it is! — then it's time for me to type the last word of this post and hit publish.

157 comments:

Anne in Rockwall, TX said...

I will keep doing what I have been doing. Keeping me and my family safe, not masking, not hiding, and thanking God every day that I live in Texas.

Bob Boyd said...

Don't worry, the sky will not stop falling.
Look for another crisis, that only further empowering the federal government can save us from, to materialize.

exhelodrvr1 said...

Take Covid out of the picture (and the false, but media-supported pretending that they have handled it better than the Republicans would), and then they get to run on the achievements of the Biden administration!!

Kevin said...

You can see right there that the Atlantic writer — Derek Thompson — is going to say that the Democrats have changed their beliefs because the facts have changed.

Have they?

If the “facts” are changing it’s from the lies and distortions being removed.

The big lie — that if everyone were vaccinated Covid would be defeated — is being destroyed.

But it was never true.

Achilles said...

If people vote in person and mass mail in "voting" is not allowed Democrats just lose.

Mike (MJB Wolf) said...

Biden does not have the political skills to turn Omicron into a “win” and I failed to follow your assertion that the D party in general could do so. The current administration has gone all-in on mandates and vaccinations and even more boosters. That’s after his very strong statements as candidate Biden where his outrageous lies about having a plan to “shut down the virus” have proved hollow and do nothing more than reinforce the public perception that he is a demagogue-braggart with a history of fabulous falsehoods accumulating around the carcass of his failed policies. That mainstream DNC-Media is now noting the congruence of what Trump and Cotton were saying then and what practical Dems are admitting now speaks clearly to the momentum building to move on from emergency mode. Add to this turning the flood of recent stories detailing how trillions of Fed funding to fight COVID has been futile and wasted and the public resistance to further restrictions will keep waning if not go poof sooner than expected.

farmgirl said...

These vaxxed and done people may be even more susceptible to Covid now. I remember we vaccinated heifers against pinkeye one year- the next we didn’t. The previously vaccinated came down w/pinkeye and those not vaccinated at all were healthy.

I’m peeved over the firing of the unvaxxed while letting positive tested medical staff continue to work. Wtf sense does that make??

I also believe The Atlantic cannot be fair and balanced… just my opinion.

Earnest Prole said...

That's not exactly how I remember it (and I watched Trump's Covid show every day).

As I remember it Trump promised the virus would simply vanish.

wendybar said...

Got vaxxed. Won't be getting the booster. Done.

TreeJoe said...

My answer to that question is political in the sense that it's POLICY based, not political in the sense that it's R/D based.

This pandemic has seen an embarrassment of leadership as defined by clear vision, clear planning, clear communication, and adaptation to changes. No sector has more defined these lacks then public health communicators.

There is very simple data here to drive policy. We are a nation of states. Some states insrumented draconian restrictions on personal and public life; other states did not. How has each state faired within common goal posts: percent of population infected, % of those hospitalized, deaths from those, and % of weeks operating within hospital capacity (which can include surge capacity). Ignore economic outcomes for a minute and just look at those types of measures. You'll see then that the most restrictive states faired similarly to the least restrictive states at overall outcomes. Oh, sure, they may have slowed spread within a given timeframe - but the ULTIMATE OUTCOMES ARE THE SAME.

So then why are public health officials advocating the restrictions? Why are we calling it a pandemic of the unvaccinated when the vaccinated are getting and spreading the disease? Why have we put so much focus on those at the least risk - kids and younger, healthy adults?

I'm not proud of Republicans in handling this pandemic. They've been poor communicators and they haven't trumpeted their successes and failures effectively. But I am happy at least that Republicans, and a few democrats, took personal and community freedom more seriously.

If I was running for a national office, I'd run on a platform of removing the current major health policy personnel to be replaced by those who have shown more appropriate balance of the protection of human life with freedom as well as the ability to put in place effective logistical handling for future pandemics. Perhaps the elimination of the CDC and the formation of a new group, given the CDC's track record here.



Steven said...

Part of what has made this political is that the objectives keep changing. The vaccines were supposed to be the end of it and I think they still should be. Once you have the vaccine, Covid is just a cold. Why should vaccinated people continue to wear masks, quarantine, test, and so on?

I don't even blame the unvaccinated. I do argue with the anti-vax people about the vaccines being safe and effective, but only because I'd like them to be healthy too and I think some loud misinformed people are having a bad influence on others who are paying less attention. But if people want to take their chances with the virus, that's their business.

BillieBob Thorton said...

What should you do about Omicron and should it have a damned thing to do with politics? Should you keep making demands of other people, or should you look to your own health and the health of your family?

I'm going to continue doing what I have been doing all along. Living my life, ignoring the hysteria, enjoying the the things I have always enjoyed. I don't make demands on other people and I deeply despise people thinking they can make demands on me. Just leave me alone. Go bother someone else.

farmgirl said...

I guess that didn’t answer your question: sorry.

We’re in Annie C’s boat. We don’t socialize much- but I do sing in an unmasked choir at church. I’m probably the youngest there. One lady masks up. I heard something about passing a masking law for VT but think the gov will veto.

Achilles said...

Some 2022 Democrats are sounding like 2020 Republicans. In spring 2020, many Republicans, including President Donald Trump, insisted that COVID was hardly worse than the flu; that its fatality risk was comparable to an everyday activity, like driving in a car; and that an obsessive focus on cases wouldn’t give an accurate picture of what was going on in the pandemic.


I get it Ann. You really want to be one of the beautiful people.

But this is pure trash. This is trashy trash that reflects poorly on the people that support it.

The Atlantic is a completely dishonest publication. The peop0le in the democrat tribe are just terrible people.

Everyone knows that at the beginning Trump tried to institute travel bans to China.

And everyone knows that large numbers of Democrats called him Xenophobic and Racist for doing that.

They can pretend all they want. There are many reasons they are polling around 35% approval in polls that over sample democrats.

Temujin said...

Of course it's all political. That's why so many of the doctors and researchers with information that would help people, have been censored, banished, silenced. They have not followed the Official Narrative.

But people have still had access to their information, even with all the censoring (Joe Rogan, various websites, Rumble, and some news outlets) so the info has been there. And it has not matched The Narrative. Couple that with the loss of respect of our 'experts' (i.e. Fauci, CDC) and the trends have moved from waiting for our Government to tell us what to do, to we'd better figure this out for ourselves now.

And so we are. In some states it's been a cooperative system in which we've been figuring this out on our own, with the advice and help of our state government, what to do. In other states it's been a top-down command center approach with Governors acting as The Voice of Science. And who would you trust with your life: Gavin Newsom or your own lying eyes?

Democrats see the writing on the wall and hence, we have a quickly changing Official Narrative that spread, almost at once, at a preset time- from our media, our political class, and our 'experts'. It's comical to watch them chase their tails.

MikeR said...

Doing what everyone is doing. We may all catch it, vaccination doesn't seem to stop that. Probably won't hurt us, except for a few. We do the best we can.
I know people who are in hiding, though.

What's emanating from your penumbra said...

Omicron has changed everything, libs say.

Also, unvaccinated people encourage variants.

So, thanks anti-vaxxers?

Achilles said...

Remember that the first thing Democrats tried to do to stop COVID was to Impeach Trump over complete lies and fabrications.

And they called his initial efforts to stop COVID a DISTRACTION from IMPEACHMENT.

tim in vermont said...

Fauci told Trump that the virus that Fauci had a hand in creating was going to vanish like SARS did, and Trump believed him.

PB said...

The Dems clearly are positioning themselves to claim they've been correct all along, and most loyal followers will echo whatever transition rhetoric is chosen. Unfortunately the truth is much different, but winners get to write history and they definitely want to win.

Why has all this happened? Why to get Trump of course. More than just domestic progressive/liberal/democrats were interested in this scheme from even before Trump was elected. They tried everything they could think of but SARS-Cov2 had legs, and they were willing to screw up economies and societies the world over in their effort.

Don't underestimate that the world "elite" enlisted in the common cause to drive Trump from office or previously to usher in progressive/liberalism. Russia and China were on-board as was most of Europe, egged on by global ne'er-do-wells like Clinton and Kerry, let alone the billionaire-elite seeking to further enrich themselves by further government-capture or build edifices to themselves as gobal saviors.

Saving lives was the canard similar to the constant "what about the children?" we are constantly pummeled with.

Don't underestimate the joint interests of the pharma companies spreading billions about the world into key pockets and the stock gains of political actors who got in at the low.

Why do you think Obama was given a Nobel Prize before he'd done anything? Before then, why do you think Krugman was given a Nobel? Hint his work was good, but not Nobel-worthy. It sure was handy to have a reliable NYTimes columnist singing every democrat position augmented with the Nobel imprimatur.

There doesn't have to be a grand coordinated conspiracy, just an ecosystem of aligned, self-reinforcing interests.

Trump was a boat rocker, the bull in the china shop. He had to go. By any means necessary.

Dave Begley said...

Global warming is the Dems’ next play. The fate of the planet is at stake! Bear any burden. No price is too high.

Howard said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Howard said...

Very informative summary of the state of the pandemic. Mask and vaccine mandates slammed by these liberal elites using science. You people will like it. Not all of it, but the major points.

Peter Atria on Omicron

Maynard said...

Also, unvaccinated people encourage variants.

It seems more likely that this so-called vaccination encourages variants as the virus evolves in order to survive.

Please remember that the "Vaccine" is not really a vaccine, but an immunity booster. You can and should do everything to boost your ability to fight the virus.

tim in vermont said...

The biggest revelation to me is that confident assertion carries so much more weight in public discussion than logic and evidence. But then it is the whole platform of woke, so I should not be surprised.

Howard said...

The variants came from unvaxxed shit hole countries, not from partially vaxxed shit hole red states.

Heartless Aztec said...

The sig other and I were doubled vaxed in March of 2021 with no follow up booster. Because we live in the Free State of Florida and do not watch local or national news on television our Year of the Covid Scaredemics was done and it has hardly intruded into our lives since in any meaningful way since.

tim in vermont said...

Masking, in my humble opinion, is past its usefulness, as people are going to want to experience subclinical infection frequently to keep up immunity

Iman said...

“You might think, that's what Democrats do — take forcible actions and displace private decision-making — that's their brand.”

Democrats place more value on the good - heroic in their eyes? - intentions they desperately need to feel they had when taking “forcible actions” than the usual horrible results that would chasten normal citizens.

Howard said...

The Republicans traded Dick Cheney to the Democrats for RFK Jr and a douchebag to be named later.

tds said...

Side note: going through the impressive trajectory of certain segment of the US population:

Trump's an idiot for saying we'll have vaccine quickly --> I won't take Trump vaccine --> everybody has to take the vaccine! Bloody rednecks! --> boosters! Mandates! --> Covid is not such a big deal

must be bad for a person's mental health

What's emanating from your penumbra said...

It seems more likely that this so-called vaccination encourages variants

Oh, I'm sure that talking point is being poll-tested. First the unvaxxed are endangering us all!!!! by letting variants develop. Now the variants are here to save us and it's all thanks to the vaccinated people.

Bob Boyd said...

It's not just the relative mildness of the Omicron variant that has people reconsidering more vaccine. They are also seeing that the vax doesn't work as advertised.
When it first came out we were told Pfizer and Moderna were over 90% effective at preventing Covid infection. That is clearly not the case. Everybody knows people who have gotten Covid after vaccination.
The story changed from, "the vax prevents the disease" to "the vax reduces the severity of the disease". Is that even meet the definition of a vaccine?

Now the CEO of Pfizer says this on national TV, “Two doses of the vaccine offers very limited protection, if any. 3 doses with a booster offer reasonable protection against hospitalization and deaths."

It's also increasingly clear the vaccine is not without risks.

And none of this is happening in a vacuum.

gilbar said...

this raises a Serious Question
Can anyone (anyone at All?) think of ANY Way that the last two years would have been worse, if Dr Fraudci had retired at 65?
Any one? Any way?

Anything USEFUL that the old coot has done, in the last two years?

Ann Althouse said...

"Have they? If the “facts” are changing it’s from the lies and distortions being removed."

The Omicron variant is a big fact change.

Darkisland said...

I'm with Annie. Spiritually if not physically. We have been infected with the the kung flu madness here on our Emerald Isle for almost 2 years now. I believed it at first but in a month or two saw that it was 95% fear porn and 98% bullshit.

I comply with the law. I avoid situations where I have to but comply when I can't.

Otherwise I ignore kung flu and it ignores me.

John LGBTQBNY Henry

iowan2 said...

I'm with Kevin@7:31

The facts are not changing. Facts can't change. Only the narrative changes. Facts do not Change.
Facts do not change.

We knew before it all blew up March 2019, that the old and infirm were the most likely to suffer from contracting the virus. That was the clear facts coming from Italy. The Experts determined from that fact. We should close schools, churches, gyms athletics (surfers arrested in California), shoe stores, etc. The experts determined gardening had to stop. (Home Depot was open, but the gardening aisles roped off)
We could have identified and worked to protect the vulnerable. The vulnerable were ignored in favor of the administrative state, seeing how far they could push their power.
Did I mention? Facts don't change.

Sebastian said...

"anti-Trump people were already in a panic over Trump and — in that election year — they wanted Trump to fail."

Yes, but not panic-panic: trumped up and cultivated anxiety.

"So I see why people split politically over something that wasn't inherently political."

Yes, but not split-split: the left deliberately widened the divide for political advantage.

Anyway, the flu comparison remains relevant to highlight a key fact about Covid: more dangerous to the old and sick, less dangerous to the young and healthy.

Meade said...

“We knew before it all blew up March 2019, “

Same facts, changed narrative.

Leon said...

What am I going to do... Nothing I've already got it and got better. A 100.1f fever for 2 days. I did take an aspirin a day since it seems to be a blood disease and I don't want clots which I may have had the first time. Also this time I didn't lose my sense of smell which is good....18 months in I'm not sure it's totally good from the first round.

Leland said...

Count me as one thinking covid is now endemic and we will deal with it like the flu. Back in April 2020, I felt that way about it after studying the cruise ship data. At the time, I do think politics (policies) need to be involved to help stop pandemics. It is what we do for stuff like Ebola, or did before Obama, such as limiting travel to highly infected areas. I disagreed with the strategy, but I understood 2 weeks to quarantine as a reasonable policy (that quickly became unreasonable when it became months).

The interesting thing isn't that the Omicron variant is proving my sense of things as fairly accurate. It is that the Delta variant really was bad, and it was then that flattening the curve would have been a good measure. But since quarantine was abused previously, it wasn't used for Delta, and while Delta would make for a horrible flu season in comparison, we survived. So let's bring politics back to the border and have citizens in our country make health choices on their own.

Darkisland said...

Dr Malone is one of the co-inventors of MRNA. He was once a hero. Now he is an "unperson" to revive one of the great Stalinist words.

We've read about the great and extremely severe lockdown that started 2-3 weeks ago in one large chinese region. I thought it was more kung flu kabuki. That is what the Chinese are claiming.

Malone is claiming it is ebola like hemoragic fever.

Ebola seems to be like a political herpes. It just keeps coming back and coming back and coming back. It scares the shit out of everyone but never seems to amount to much.

Really nasty for those who get it, but it kills so quickly that it doesn't spread too much.

It might be an opportunity for us, though. Perhaps we can put the fear mongering to good use.

"You know, you can catch this Chinese Ebola by contact. Say by touching a toaster made my an infected person. Probably low risk but why take a chance? Don't buy anything from China and tell stores you shop at not to stock stuff made in China. If it saves just one life...."

Achilles said...

Howard said...

The Republicans traded Dick Cheney to the Democrats for RFK Jr and a douchebag to be named later.

There is Howard calling people who have been vaccinated multiple times... Anti-Vaxxers.

Because you are a dishonest piece of shit.

You can't actually discuss the issue because I and others here have and will continue to embarrass you on the facts.

They changed the definition of vaccine to include this garbage.

There were cheap and existing treatments that work better than these treatments they are trying to call a vaccine.

And Howard and all of the other Democrats were trashing the vaccine while Trump was president.

But keep up the dishonest jokes Howard.

Make yourself feel better about being completely wrong about everything.

iowan2 said...

The Omicron variant is a big fact change.

We watched omicron move through Africa. Knew it was very contagious, very fast, far less lethal That got us exactly the same response. See Chicago Schools.

The facts aren't changing, the leftist narrative is changing because it has been exposed. Covid protocols never moved the needle. Only spread the results over time. The only honest think that comes to mind was "2 weeks to flatten the curve". The day that little ditty was written, statisticians accurately informed us, the area under the line is exactly the same over time, with and without the protocols.

Achilles said...

Meade said...

“We knew before it all blew up March 2019, “

Same facts, changed narrative.

"Facts."

Not the right word in this situation.

When the CDC comes out and drastically revises the death toll from COVID will all be forgiven?

tim in vermont said...

"Why do liberals believe so much crap about COVID? Who is telling them this?" - Bill Maher [Not a precise transcript, but close enough.]

https://twitter.com/philthatremains/status/1480893841075052548

Darkisland said...

Since about May 2020 I've been sayng here and elsewhere that the kung flu stats are bullshit.

I've been pointing out how they combine people hospitalized and dead with and those hospitalized and dead because of kung flu are two differennt group.

In summer 2020 there was reporting that 93% of all kung flu classified deaths had at least 3 comorbidities. I talked about here on ALthouse comments.

CDC has finally paid attention.

John LGBTQBNY Henry

Bob Boyd said...

"The Omicron variant is a big fact change."

Is it? It's a variant. What will the next variant do?

I think the big "fact changes" are the relative ineffectiveness of the vax and the increasing realization that the vax has more risk than we first were led to believe.
It's true people are less scared of the virus at the moment, but they know another, more deadly variant could show up and they know, even with Omicron, you can never tell who might be the one who gets really sick.
If people thought the vax was safe and effective, they'd happily take it just like they take other vaccines. They no longer think that.
They also are starting to realize the risk of severe Covid is lower than they were led to believe for most people.

Howard said...

Glad you are feeling better. My unvaxxed unmasked Trumper brother is enjoying long haul Covid pneumonia courtesy of Delta he picked up at a crowded Trumper Christmas party. Too bad he didn't make the bridge to Omicron.

Birches said...

I'm not sure how political families' actions to Covid are. Initially, I was pretty careful. But for us we were forced to lighten up in the summer of 2020 because of our kids. I have teenagers and the weight of non interaction began to really affect them negatively. So we as parents allowed some interaction and when we didn't die, we had some more. By the time September 2020 came around, we were pretty much back to normal.

If I had only small children, the calculation would have probably been different. I don't think my younger kids will even have distinct memories of the pandemic because we have made sure to keep things as normal as possible. They've always been free to play with the neighborhood kids outside. It seemed cruel to do anything different.

gilbar said...

Military Documents About Gain of Function Contradict Fauci Testimony Under Oath

The report states that EcoHealth Alliance approached DARPA in March 2018, seeking funding to conduct gain of function research of bat borne coronaviruses. The proposal, named Project Defuse, was rejected by DARPA over safety concerns and the notion that it violates the basis gain of function research moratorium.

According to the documents, NIAID, under the direction of Dr. Fauci, went ahead with the research in Wuhan, China and at several sites across the U.S.

Browndog said...

Democrats didn't initially take covid seriously because Trump did. That, and they were busy Impeaching him after Pelosi waited two months.

By the late summer, half of the country knew for a fact only democrats cared about covid, Trump didn't. Trump touted cheap, effective therapeutics, democrat governors responded by banning them in their States.

The Science became a diety, Fauci the demigod. Only through the sacrifices set forth by Fauci can you appease The Science; the only hope for salvation.

Now, the government is trying to wrestle some of the power back from The Science by admitting all the things were knew were bullshit in May 2020, careful not to offend The Science worshipers. The Science has bestowed upon them new divine enlightenment,
sparing them from being banished as heretics.

tim in vermont said...

"Facts do not Change.
Facts do not change. "

Isn't it pretty to think so. It might be, but it is utter nonsense. At the time of Pearl Harbor, it was a 'fact' that the Japanese were winning battle after battle in the Pacific, and by 1945, it was a 'fact' that the Japanese were losing battle after battle.

Omicron is different than Delta, there is such a thing as the arrow of time, and stuff that was true two years ago is no longer true as variants die out under pressure from new variants.

What's the use arguing about it, if you want to pretend that nothing changed the day that omicron infected the first human, you go ahead.

tim in vermont said...

"That was the clear facts coming from Italy."

More evidence for my theory that when somebody says "clearly" it really means "I am not going to provide any evidence for this because I clearly don't have any."

Left Bank of the Charles said...

For me, until the number of daily deaths from covid in the U.S. comes down, it’s back to masks and social distancing as the principal line of defense. More people I know are getting covid in this Omicron wave, and while it may be milder, another 50-something person I went to school with has died.

Mike of Snoqualmie said...

Democrats and the press, but I repeat myself, demonized any kind of therapeutic treatment. HQC showed some success, but they said it was "dangerous." A drug that had been used for 70 years and all side effects were well known and who should take it also well understood. Same for intermectin, a.k.a. horse paste.

Democrats are barbarians. Always trying to tear down civil society with their screams of racism, January 6, Hitlerism, and panic.

Danno said...

Blogger Howard said...The variants came from unvaxxed shit hole countries, not from partially vaxxed shit hole red states. AND The Republicans traded Dick Cheney to the Democrats for RFK Jr and a douchebag to be named later.

Howard, are you mocking the esteemed Kennedys from Masshole? Masshole is too small to even be considered a shithole. Maybe all of those so-called states between Maine and New York should be merged into one called New England.

rcocean said...

Here's why the breakdown of the political divide could help Democrats. If fighting Omicron is a losing game, the perception that it's not a fight anymore keeps the Democrats, who are in charge, from looking like losers. If Omicron is accepted — relatively benign, unstoppably fast-moving — then there's less expectation that the government will take forcible actions and displace private decision-making.

Exactly! Under Trump it was all clear cut in the MSM. THe POTUS was in charge, and Trump had to save us or he was to blame. It was: Trump lied, People died. Now Joey Biden is POTUS, so its all grey and complex. Who's to blame? Everyone and no one. Its so full of nuance and unknonwns. And Biden's just one man. trying his best.

Browndog said...

Leon said...

I did take an aspirin a day since it seems to be a blood disease..


Smart man.

Steven said...

Someone mentioned global warming.

That seems to me an interesting subject. How has the pandemic changed the politics of global warming?

Over the past 10 years I'd seen some movement, even among conservatives, toward the environmentalist position. I suspect that Covid will reverse that trend. The polarization of science now seems much worse than during the arguments over global warming. Before the pandemic, the Right liked science especially the physical sciences, and dismissed environmentalists as just one group of lefties among an otherwise respectable institution. But now, it seems the Right has rejected science entirely. Science as an institution is controlled by bunch of elitists who put their politics above truth. (Of course, the Right is doing the same thing with nonsense about "Malone is a co-inventor of mRNA", he is not. But no one cares about a few kooks on the Right.) I think scientists really destroyed their own credibility last summer during the BLM protests/riots. It seems like a consensus solution to global warming is becoming harder now.

On the other hand, I see more and more people talking about nuclear power and carbon capture technology, which are really the only viable solutions. So, it could be the success of the vaccines has also lead the left to embrace technology as a solution.

If global warming goes the same way that Covid has: Leftists will adopt nuclear power and carbon capture as solutions (ideas previously championed by the Right). But the Right, increasingly skeptical of science, will declare those technologies dangerous and oppose them in favor of allowing "natural" global warming.

TJ said...

I'm seeing the "rightish media" doing all the same things I hated about the MSM in 2020:

1. Treating masks as if they actually work (as the public wears them, not some laboratory study)
2. They AREN'T cases...they are positive tests...STOP CALLING THEM CASES
3. Keeping track of the deaths as if the numbers are actually real (as in not flawed) and assigning them to politicians

This is how the power wielded by the politicians will continue. When we keep propping up bad science and data so we can dump on the politician you don't like. It has to stop...

I understand that people are frustrated with the hypocrisy, I am too, but this is not productive or sustainable if you value small government.

Browndog said...

Things that didn’t stop the virus:

- lockdowns
- closing businesses
- masks
- plastic shields
- social distancing
- closing schools
- the vaccine.

-Sebastian Gorka DrG


One could argue this is a list of things that made it worse.

farmgirl said...

Dark island:0)
Now bring back Rusty- I miss the brim of his hat!

Bilwick said...

Never fear: statists will never run out of excuses to wield the Mailed Fist.

Darkisland said...

The Atlantic is owned by Laurene Jobs, Steve's widow. It reflects her political viewpoint.

And nobody elses.

It operates at a loss.

John LGBTQBNY Henry

Mike of Snoqualmie said...

The death count in Washington State is steadily declining. Case counts and hospitalizations are increasing and the r0-infection rate has increased to 2.0. What matters most is the death rate, everything else is just color commentary.

mezzrow said...

It's tougher when you're the team in charge. Wiser heads might have thought about what to do when the initial consensus started failing.

We've seen what happens when they continue to double down on authority to achieve compliance. The price for the getting the last 35% to compliance is higher than they could have imagined, but when you are eradicating pestilence the only solution is a complete solution. My guess is that the narrative says that the only people who will mind the process are those they could never win over. Hence, 'I am the science.' The mindset is like telling your rebellious five year old that we have to do it because "the doctor says so." Ask me how I know how that five year old feels.

When an unwise narrative is the driver and there is no plan B, the destination looks a lot like the spot we're standing on now.

Joe Biden, America's Putin said...

I think of it as - How many shots per year. for one disease

WE are up to 3-4 per year. forced by the government, if they could. I'm not an anti-vaxxer - but I am skeptical of a government who bans free speech regarding after-market drug therapies that have shown promise at the early stages of Covid.

Plus - Pfizer advertises on CNN(D). How creepy is that?

Mike (MJB Wolf) said...

Oh Bob: “… they know another, more deadly variant could show up.”

Not likely outside of a laboratory. That’s just not what 100 years of studying SARS-type respiratory viruses has taught us. I’m sorry the “experts” have so misled you about how these things work. Where does one go now to learn the truth. I’m “lucky” that I live with a brilliant science loving person with years of experience in medical field who shared my interest in the Spanish Flu pandemic and specifically in podcaster Bryan Suits who did many episodes about Spanish Flu and how various cities and states reacted at the time. SARS viruses haven’t changed their game book since then and nothing I knew before February 2020 has changed. My belief is that the shutdowns actually lengthened the time it took for alpha and beta waves to peak. Omicron has overcome that with a faster transmission ability but less ability to infect severely. Look back at Hong Kong flu and Spanish flu. Each successive wave is lower amplitude and steeper down slope, so each wave has less area “under the curve.”

Mike (MJB Wolf) said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Mike (MJB Wolf) said...

I don’t believe you Left Bank. Daily death toll has been dropping and continues to do so yet you’re still saying “if” it happens. When do you acknowledge reality?

JustOneMinute said...

Cam the Democrats really treat COVID the way Biden treated Afghanistan and declare that enough is enough?

That gets VERY awkward because demonizing likely 2024 frontrunner DeSantis for not taking COVID seriously enough has been a key part of their messaging.

Well. As they say, virtue-signalling is its own reward.

Iman said...

Calls for a Venn diagram: Left Bank <-> Reality

Scotty, beam me up... said...

We now have had about 1 year of the pandemic under Trump and 1 year under Biden. It took Trump some time to get going but his administration delivered a vaccine in 8 or so months, which is unheard of in our government bureaucracy. Biden took over and all we get is crossed wires and mixed messages between Biden / Harris /Psaki, Fauci, and the CDC’s Wallensky and falling behind on fighting the virus. Meanwhile, in 2020, the left took advantage the virus situation and we got loosened voting rules with ballot harvesting, super early voting, mailing out of ballots and ballot applications to anybody and everybody, even if not requested, people going into nursing homes to “help” the residents vote and other irregularities that have not happened in the past. With this Keystone Kops drama currently playing out, the Dems saw how this helped their side and decided to go for broke with HR1 by putting all of their effort into getting this passed before they potentially lose power in Congress. HR1 is misnamed about being about voting rights. Instead, it was written to consolidate the Dems’ power in the White House (which, after several presidential elections will permanently stack the SCOTUS with liberal justices without court packing), legally gerrymander representative districts in the Dems’ favor, and have all elections controlled by a DC-based commission controlled by the Dems. Hell, the Dems want non-citizens to vote in elections. Our country will become, in essence, controlled by the Dems and thus a virtual dictatorship with only political infighting and jockeying for power occurring on the left, similar to what happened in the USSR, Nazi Germany, and currently in China. The Constitution will become a museum relic worth only the paper it is written on, assuming it is not physically destroyed so that future generations won’t get any ideas on how our country used to be to be run. Senators Manchin and Sinema are the only known roadblocks standing in way of this massive power play, short of SCOTUS ruling HR1 as being unconstitutional.

Night Owl said...

"The vulnerable were ignored in favor of the administrative state, seeing how far they could push their power."

Worse than that. Leftist hero and Emmy award winner Cuomo sent covid sick people back to the nursing homes, back to the most vulnerable and killed thousands of them. The bad orange man had sent him ships and beds to hold them.

There should be a day of reckoning for the harm these political leaders and bureaucrats have done but I won't hold my breath waiting for it.

Amadeus 48 said...

Item: the normal course of a respiratory virus is that over time it becomes more contagious and less virulent. There are evolutionary reasons for this.
Item: At no time has Covid19 presented a serious threat to the population under the age of 50.
Item: Covid 19 does present a serious threat to the population over 65 for various reasons.
Item: Covid 19 is practically harmless to people under 20, who do not transmit it very well.
Item: suffering a Covid 19 infection conveys a high degree of immunity against serious future infections.

If one accepts the above statements (all of which are well supported by observations) as facts, would one follow the path adopted by Western governments to deal with Covid 19?

This episode illustrates the suicide of expertise. Public health officials have shamed themselves in this episode. The Dems are scrambling like rats to save themselves from their own rhetoric.

Achilles said...

What is a fact is that Anthony Fauci and the United States Government funded development of the COVID-19 virus.

They have been caught lying about it.

The evidence is undeniable and unequivocal.

And the leftists want to shame people for not trusting Anthony Fauci?

You are idiots for trusting Anthony Fauci. You are despicable for helping him cover up the government's role in development of COVID-19.

Amadeus 48 said...

Omicron is new, but it was completely predictable. That’s how respiratory viruses evolve.

The development and distribution of the vaccines was a boon to dealing with the threat to the population over 65, but they were oversold as to their effect and are being over-distributed to the population under 40, who have never been at great risk from Covid 19.

Joe Biden, America's Putin said...

The Collective LEFT summed on in one tweet

Yancey Ward said...

The answer to the question depends on how well people remember things, like what prominent people said in order to get elected. I wrote well over 1 1/2 years ago in these very threads that a day would come when no one will remember having personally supported lockdowns, mandated masking, and school closures. We aren't quite there yet- the major block to ending this utter insanity we find ourselves trapped in is the testing regime- as long as that continues, the Democrats in power can't declare victory and move on. You keep testing 1-2 million tests/day, you can't ever fall below 10-20K positives/day, and over a years' time, you will almost certainly average 100K+ "new cases"/day, and 500-1000 "Covid deaths"/day.

This seems to only end if testing for it ends. Who is going to make the decision to cut that Gordian Knot?

Yancey Ward said...

And take a good, hard look at the tweet CanofCheese put a link to at 9:50 a.m. It demonstrates the willingness to openly lie about ones past positions, even when the lie is easily demonstrated with conclusive evidence, and I am giving Hiltzik the credit of actually remembering his own past tweets (and perhaps I shouldn't).

Michael K said...

Howard said...

The variants came from unvaxxed shit hole countries, not from partially vaxxed shit hole red states.


It's a bit early to be drinking but that's Howard.

Viruses are parasites. Efficient parasites do not kill their hosts. Any evolution they experience is to increase infectivity and reduce lethality. Hence Omicron.

The "vaccine" is unique in medical history so far. It affects one protein of the virus. Evolution of viruses like influenza occurs mostly in surface proteins. This was all predictable.

Real American said...

Everything they're "learning" and admitting to now - masks don't work, distancing is ridiculous, lockdowns cause more harm than good, forcing children to stay home and stare at screens is bad for them, serious risks from Covid is extremely low for the vast majority of people, wiping down all surfaces isn't necessary, forcing people to isolate at home reduces natural immunity - all of this was plain old common sense to many of us by April 2020.

Instead what happened was that the pandemic turned into one of those "never let a crisis go to waste" moments for statists. First, it provided an opportunity to get rid of Trump (and he didn't exactly cover himself in glory). Secondly, it is a chance to interpose themselves into every mundane aspect of our lives. We don't know how to live the right way, so we need to be "nudged" by "experts". Lastly, it gave the statists a grand opportunity to censor alternative political views or "misinformation" as they call it. They had been going down that path for awhile, but now they could convince themselves that they were saving lives. It's all bullshit, of course, but that doesn't mean they don't think of themselves as heroes.

Bruce Hayden said...

“So let me try to answer my own question. Here's why the breakdown of the political divide could help Democrats. If fighting Omicron is a losing game, the perception that it's not a fight anymore keeps the Democrats, who are in charge, from looking like losers. If Omicron is accepted — relatively benign, unstoppably fast-moving — then there's less expectation that the government will take forcible actions and displace private decision-making.”

What I hear you saying there is that if the Democrats would just quit digging their holes, they might recover somewhat in popularity by the election later this year. And, if restated like that, it makes sense.

But it isn’t going to deal them a winning hand this year. They have already picked up too many bad cards. Yes, we are almost 10 months out, and that is a long time, but… two things: they are having troubles turning their ship fast enough, as it runs into the shoals, and their draconian COVID-19 responses have screwed up the country bad enough that they won’t be able to cover up the damage by election time.

First, a lot of people died over the last year because of the response to the virus. Not directly from it, but because of it. Insurance company underwriters have found substantial numbers of excess deaths over the last year. Some died from lack of medical care that they should have received, but didn’t, because hospitals froze “elective” surgeries and procedures. It’s not getting better anytime soon, after they were forced to fire their staff who refused to accept their novel gene therapy “vaccine”. Some even from these “vaccines”. I personally know more people killed probably by the vaccines, than from the virus itself. The masking very likely increased bacterial infections along the way, some resulting in deaths. No doubt, there are plenty of other reasons for the huge number of excess deaths this last year. The thing that their survivors are going to have a hard time forgetting is that it was that these deaths were during the year when (mostly) Democrats grossly overreacted to the pandemic.

Another factor is that our distribution system is a shambles. My partner needs her RediWhip every morning for her coffee. Regular, and not heavy. Finally found it last night at Safeway, $1 higher than at Fry’s and Walmart, that have both been out for a week. Meanwhile, my kid’s spouse’s family is having to sell their fifth generation dairy farm, due to quotas and other artificial constraints. Restaurants (the ones who have managed to survive so far) are panicking because Sysco has announced that it cannot complete many of their orders, due to scarcities.

The military is going through a purge right now, eliminating anyone to the right of Kirsten Sinema, under the guise of vaccination mandates. Significant high skilled service members, esp pilots and special operations people, are being forced out.

The list goes on.

Meanwhile, the COVID-19 crisis gave politicians and bureaucrats a lot of power. We have seen that they don’t want to give it up. Heck, the Dems in Congress are using COVID-19 to push their HR-1 vote theft, along with Build Back Bankrupt bills. The one thing that we shouldn’t expect is for the top public health bureaucrats (Fauci, etc) to fully admit that the crisis is over. Too much loss of power. This isn’t just at the top of the federal govt, but also at the state and local level. The Chicago teachers are on strike, simply because they can. If Trump were still in office, he would probably just declare victory, and have a celebration. But he isn’t. Biden is tokenly in charge, but doesn’t really have the power himself (being stage managed by a committee), even if he were capable of understanding the problem, which he clearly is not. Making things worse, power at the Cabinet level has been devolved to various interest groups, each with their own departments and agencies. Trump could have cracked the whip over them. Biden can’t find the whip, and wouldn’t know what to do with it if he found it.

Yancey Ward said...

"The Omicron variant is a big fact change."

Delta had already established this new fact by September of last year. Omicron was simply the confirmation.

Kevin said...

The Omicron variant is a big fact change.

That's what the narrative changers want you to think.

We're dealing with a Coronavirus, which was destined to mutate exactly as it did. And yet, Fauci et al kept telling us we could "end" the virus if **only** everyone would get everyone vaccinated.

They told us this so many times and so forcefully, that people believed the unvaccinated were solely responsible for the virus still being here.

That was always a lie, and Omicron simply exposed it for the lie it is.

gilbar said...

Left Bank of the Charles said...
For me, until the number of daily deaths from covid in the U.S. comes down, it’s back to masks and social distancing

Leftie, i realize that you are a liar, but don't Facts kinda hurt your ability to lie effectively?
seven day rolling averages are not only Down, from last October...
they are HALF of what they were last year...HALF
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

JK Brown said...

Omicron is likely to peak in the US in a week. Were are about 2 weeks behind the UK and they peaked 6 days ago. That will really break the narrative.

But now we know who will support tyrannical government, who will lobby to throw you out of society, send your family to camps, who despises any individual liberty but their own. Never forget who these people are. And forgotten are the millions of people whose lives were destroyed in their current zeal. Small businesses crushed by emotionally compromised professors tweeting from the laptops that only large corporations should be allowed to do business (in the current crisis). Millions will not forget because the mandaters brought them economic sabotage and destruction.

And remember, Biden and his minions still have people getting fired on Friday. Even if not forced off the job, all those workers now know the true face of their employer and Democrats. And children are still be denied schooling, though one hopes this abuse by "educators" is providing them with a learning experience.

"True reconciliation does not consist in merely forgetting the past" - Nelson Mandela

Joe Smith said...

'Some 2022 Democrats are sounding like 2020 Republicans.'

Realizing you totally fucked up with the mid-term elections coming down the pike will change your outlook.

MadTownGuy said...

This Person said...

"Omicron has changed everything, libs say.

Also, unvaccinated people encourage variants.

So, thanks anti-vaxxers?
"

What's your source for the highlighted statement?

John henry said...

Left Bank of the Charles said...

another 50-something person I went to school with has died.

Sorry about your friend bt what did they die of?

Did the die OF kung flu? Did they die OF omicron? If they died of omicron, how does anyone know? We're they specifically tested for omicron? Next to nobody is, you know.

Or did they die with kung flu? That is tested positive but cancer, diabetes, stroke, heart attack, run over by a car, fell off a roof.

Or maybe they weren't tested but looked like they might have been positive.

It is sad but all the bullshit I've heard (not from you) makes me question every time I hear of someone dying of kung flu. Maybe they did but absent info, I take all these claims skeptically.

Everybody else should to.

John LGBTQBNY Henry

Bruce Hayden said...

“The report states that EcoHealth Alliance approached DARPA in March 2018, seeking funding to conduct gain of function research of bat borne coronaviruses. The proposal, named Project Defuse, was rejected by DARPA over safety concerns and the notion that it violates the basis gain of function research moratorium.”

This makes fascinating reading. DARPA turned them down for their Gain Of Function research in Spring of 2018. Fauci hired them. One interesting question raised was the toxicity of the spike proteins. Most important though, was probably that there didn’t seem to be adequate ethical controls, etc, built into the project. The author also questioned the involvement of the WIV (Wuhan Institute of Virology - an arm of the PRC government, our mortal enemy) as well as a couple of the researchers, and possibly even the leadership of Dr Peter Daszik.

The usual Project Veritas bombshell.

Military Documents About Gain of Function Contradict Fauci Testimony Under Oath
Executive Summary: DIFUSE (by Dr Peter Daszik, of Ecohealth Alliance)
REJECTION OF DEFUSE PROJECT PROPOSAL.
U.S. Marine Corp Major Joseph Murphy's Report to Inspector General of DoD

William said...

My RINO congressperson—who I know personally—has just contracted COVID for the SECOND time, this despite being vax'ed and being pro-vax.

What does that tell you? It's all B.S.

Yancey Ward said...

What does that tell you?

Maybe he is dating AOC?

hombre said...

Alt house: “… they wanted Trump to fail. So I see why people split politically over something that wasn't inherently political.”

I guess the controlling word here is “inherently.” However, it’s important to remember that to Democrats EVERYTHING is political. Grifters who can’t govern competently need lots of smoke screens

exhelodrvr1 said...

"The one thing that we shouldn’t expect is for the top public health bureaucrats (Fauci, etc) to fully admit that the crisis is over. Too much loss of power"

The primary goal of any bureaucracy is not to provide service to those it was created to serve; the primary goal is to protect, and if possible grow, the bureaucracy. You see this everywhere, in bureaucracies as a whole, and in the sub-groups within a bureaucracy. This is especially true with government/government-related entities that don't need to show a profit. Teachers unions, CDC, etc.

Bruce Hayden said...

“Also, unvaccinated people encourage variants.”

Actually, no. Or probably not as much as the vaccinated. This is the problem with leaky vaccines like the ones we have - they provide evolutionary pressure to mutate around them. Their job was, maybe, simplified this time, because the vaccines consisted of mRNA or DNA to generate a couple of spike proteins. Mutate around them, and, voilà, you have Omicron, which apparently tweaked the relevant spike proteins.

My theory is that the Gain Of Function in creating the SARS-CoV-2 virus involved tweaking spike proteins to bind tightly with Human ACE2 receptors. Essentially optimizing the original bat virus to be human specific. But being a respiratory virus, it easily jumped to another species (that’s part of why we can’t wipe out flu viruses, and it has been found in domestic cats and dogs). When in another species, it probably detuned (through mutation) to being so human optimized. Then maybe a year and a half later, it jumped back to humans and took off (explaining the year and a half genetic gap). By detuning the human ACE2 receptor optimization, the virus essentially mutated around the vaccines. Not probably completely, but enough that the vaccines appear to work much less effectively against Omicron, than they did against previous variants.

Just a theory, but consistent with the facts I have so far. We shall see.

Wilbur said...

TJ said...
2. They AREN'T cases...they are positive tests...STOP CALLING THEM CASES


Wilbur is intrigued. Why can't they properly be called cases?

BUMBLE BEE said...

Late in 2019my neighborhood pharmacies were out of vitamin D and zinc in all of their forms. So, I assume someone was listening to Trump, who was suggesting alternatives as well as vaccination. Our local population, as well as the country's is heavily older folks. We now are told %75 of the dead were old and had FOUR or more comorbidities. As Michael K and others have said all along. Virus is gonna take the old and infirm. Dems are now saying "the science is evolving". The MDs locally were threatened by our Soros AG for recommending Hydroxy and Ivermectin, which %25 of the world take daily without calamity. Those two have proven themselves. We are truly governed by fools.

BUMBLE BEE said...

Cases are bullshit. Plain, flat out bullshit.

What's emanating from your penumbra said...

MadTownGuy said...

This Person said...

"Omicron has changed everything, libs say.

Also, unvaccinated people encourage variants.

So, thanks anti-vaxxers?"

What's your source for the highlighted statement?


It wasn't intended as a statement of fact. It was intended as a reminder of what we've been told by leftists who want to exercise control over everyone.

IIRC, you seem to follow the pandemic relatively closely, so I'm surprised you need to ask for a source on this one. But here you go:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/more-covid-19-variants-could-come-if-people-remain-unvaccinated/ar-AASCnhI

Bruce Hayden said...

“Wilbur is intrigued. Why can't they properly be called cases?”

Because many were false positives. One of the reasons for that was that, for quite some time, a PCR test was being used, with a cycle count often cranked up so high that it was misidentifying a lot of non COVID-19 cases as positive. There was also apparently a problem with how the test had been initially calibrated. Keep in mind that hospitals were getting bonuses for every positive COVID-19 test they had, regardless of why the patient was in the hospital. So, it wouldn’t be all that surprising that many of them cranked up their PCR cycle counts in order to not lose a single COVID-19 reimbursement.

TJ said...

Wilbur,

In my view, and feel free to disagree, a case requires a healthcare response or impact. I think this is a reasonable view since the initial "2 weeks to flatten the curve" was to keep from overwhelming our healthcare capacity.

Simply put, not all positive tests require hospitalization but a "case" would. Oh, and some of the positive tests weren't even truly positive because of the degree of cycling on the PCR test in 2020.

The changing definition of words is very concerning to me. Case, safety, vaccine, anti-vaxx...just don't mean the things they used to mean.

TJ

Bruce Hayden said...

“ We are truly governed by fools.”

I am not as bothered by the fools, as those who should have known better, but closed their eyes for personal, bureaucratic, or partisan advantage.

tim in vermont said...

Rupa Subramanya@rupasubramanya
· Jan 10
My analysis of official Ontario data, not all of which publicly available, shows ICU bed occupancy rate has been safely below the 85% threshold for the past week, and median ICU stays down to about 6 days from 90 back in the summer. Time to move beyond panic and into the endgame. twitter.com/nationalpost/s…


https://mobile.twitter.com/ClimateAudit/status/1480742621014339584

Facts change.

tim in vermont said...

" When in another species, it probably detuned (through mutation) to being so human optimized. Then maybe a year and a half later, it jumped back to humans and took off (explaining the year and a half genetic gap). "

I think a better explanation is a lab leak from a lab studying COVID in mice. But it's still just hypothetical. I read where there is a lab in South Africa which deleted its virus database, the same way Wuhan did, but I would like to see that confirmed by our incurious press.

tim in vermont said...

We should have fought the Japanese in 1942 as if we had a working nuke in a hangar on some Pacific island, because the fact of the existence of a nuclear weapon could not possible change, could not change, so our early strategy that imagined that conditions were different in 1942 were boneheaded.

Left Bank of the Charles said...

“seven day rolling averages are not only Down, from last October...they are HALF of what they were last year...HALF”

Half of a very high rate of death is still too high. In terms of precautions, I’m looking forward to the day when the death rate gets down to the level it was in June 2021 and stays there. As I recall, Althouse said the pandemic was over then too. I’ll wait until it is over.

Narayanan said...

iowan2 said...
I'm with Kevin@7:31

The facts are not changing. Facts can't change. Only the narrative changes. Facts do not Change.
Facts do not change.
------------
facts remain facts including the fact that a narrative was advanced and maintainedd but everyday brings new facts to factor in decision making

is there a different way to phrase what you want to say?

Ayn Rand used distinction between Metaphysical v Man-made

LA_Bob said...

"CDC has finally paid attention."

Mmmmmm, are you sure? I think perhaps the process of "walking back" the pandemic has begun.

"The Omicron variant is a big fact change."

Omicron is a gift to the administration. It is forecast to burnout quickly and lead to a pleasant spring and summer period, a time when we can begin to put the pandemic behind us. Biden may actually dare to claim (a thoroughly undeserved) victory. It may not be enough to save the Democrats this November, but it should temper the outcome.

Check out these notes from Edward Ryan MD, Director of International Infectious Disease at Massachusetts General Hospital

https://boriquagato.substack.com/p/is-omicron-mild

wendybar said...

Night Owl said...
Worse than that. Leftist hero and Emmy award winner Cuomo sent covid sick people back to the nursing homes, back to the most vulnerable and killed thousands of them. The bad orange man had sent him ships and beds to hold them.
1/11/22, 9:33 AM

As did Governor Murphy and Governor Whitmer. Connecticut Governor Lamont is joining the club. He is trying to keep up with who on the left can kill the most nursing home patients.

Narayanan said...

they are having troubles turning their ship fast enough,
-----------
why can't D abandon the push for vaccine mandate in the name of new fresh improved science data discovery etc. - that should turn the ship on dime

rehajm said...

Yah, by SCOTUS Thursday the eternal flame of covid panic will begin to flicker. We'll have CDC revised death toll 'facts' to 'prove' Democrats had a better strategy than Trump to combat the pandemic.

...then the lefties hoist the Mission Accomplished banner live on CNN prime time.

(...hey, it mat not happen exactly like that but they gotta try something...)

rehajm said...

Cases are bullshit. Plain, flat out bullshit.

Testing is bullshit. We've known that since early on. Somehow we forgot that. Somehow...

Browndog said...

Mayor Muriel Bowser

Remember that starting Saturday you will need these three things before heading out:

1. Proof of Vaccination (12 years +)
2. Proof of Vaccination and Photo ID (18 years +)
3. Mask


12:36 PM · Jan 11, 2022·

Darkisland said...

Blogger LA_Bob said...

"CDC has finally paid attention."

Mmmmmm, are you sure? I think perhaps the process of "walking back" the pandemic has begun.

+++++++

No, not sure, I was being facaetious. But I am sure that the CDC is now saying that the "OF" population is a rather small fraction from the (reported) "WITH population.

I would go along with your statement that they are starting to walk the pandemic back.

John LGBTQBNY Henry

TJ said...

“When religion and politics travel in the same cart, the riders believe nothing can stand in their way. Their movements become headlong - faster and faster and faster. They put aside all thoughts of obstacles and forget the precipice does not show itself to the man in a blind rush until it's too late.”

― Frank Herbert, Dune

Need to update this for the more current issue, that is, when politics becomes religion...

ngtrains said...

An interesting discussion set.

In the beginning, I wondered swghy everyone was goin to die since there were a lot of people on the cruise ship and not everyone tested positive. Have you been on a cruise whip. Social distancing - Ha. quarters are so close, I was surprised that 90% did not test positive.

What happened to the pandemic procedure that was 'codified; by CDC and other agencies during the last years of the Obama administration. Why didn't the CDC bring this forth as the way to minimize the affect of the virus? My understanding is that this procedures did not provide for lockdowns as they were too drastic of a process.

What did Sweden do? Not a lot except protect the old folks. How does their incidence rate compare to ours? Only 6 US states had a better record than Sweden, and yet we forced our economy into a recessions.

Right now, there are about 1,700 deaths on a 7 day average. There are about 775,000 average 'cases' on a 7 day average.
In October the 7 day average 'cases' were about 75,000 and the 7 day average deaths were around 1,675.

In October the deaths were about 2% of the cases reported. Now It's about 0.2% and this does not even consider the 'with' vs 'from' difference. Over a year ago, it was reported that maybe 5-6% pf the deaths were "from' deaths. Now the CDC is aim,itting they do know the 'real' number of deaths.

The administration is just trying to minimize the affect os they can say they have done a good job.



TJ said...

“When religion and politics travel in the same cart, the riders believe nothing can stand in their way. Their movements become headlong - faster and faster and faster. They put aside all thoughts of obstacles and forget the precipice does not show itself to the man in a blind rush until it's too late.”

― Frank Herbert, Dune

What about when politics BECOMES religion, does anything change...or is it worse? Seems the same at best.

ngtrains said...

12:10 left bank says:

Half of a very high rate of death is still too high. In terms of precautions, I’m looking forward to the day when the death rate gets down to the level it was in June 2021

that death rate to cases in june 2021 was 2%

Now it's 0.2%

It's over

Night Owl said...

@wendybar 12:43

Yes. Why did they do that, and why are they continuing to do it? What is the "science" behind exposing the most vulnerable To this disease?

Such actions are so inexplicable and seemingly evil that they give rise to all sorts of conspiracy theories. Such as the idea that govt bureaucrats purposely drove up covid death numbers to instill panic and justify their push for vaccine mandates.

Here's more lunacy: covid "vaccines" for children. Given that the normal flu kills more children than covid, and riding in cars kills more children than covid, should we mandate annual flu shots for children? Should we mandate that parents never drive their children anywhere?

Do we have no leaders brave enough to push back against the stupidity?

Critter said...

Over Christmas, my 98 year old mother, my wife and I contracted and were test positive for Omicron (we believe, but the per tests do not differentiate between Alpha/Delta and Omicron). I had one bad stretch of headaches/body aches/low-grade fever/fatigue) for 36 hours but then felt fine. The day after I tested positive, I felt good enough to take a long walk. I took another long walk the following day, and long bike rides (24 miles) on subsequent days. My mother was very fatigued for one day and then felt normal. My wife had the worst of it due to an autoimmune disease and took about a week to feel better, and then had lingering cold symptoms for another week or so.

So unless your immune system is compromised I would not worry about Omicron. It will help you build the natural immunity that is required to end the epidemic. We will never not have a reaction to COVID just like we get colds and annual flu. When death rates from Omicron are similar to or less than annual flu, we are back to normal. So at least for now, the deadly phase of COVID is over unless you contract Delta.

Night Owl said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
gilbar said...

tim in vermont said...
We should have fought the Japanese in 1942 as if we had a working nuke in a hangar on some Pacific

actually, i'm reading yet another book on midway right now ) The Battle of Midway (Pivotal Moments in American History)By: Craig L. Symonds )...
And the Author, like MOST authors, mentions that the pacific war plan in 1942 was:
Germany First; because Defeating Japan after, would be a Cake Walk
So, We DID fight the Japanese in 1942 as if we had a working nuke in a hangar

(I wouldn't expect You to understand what the author was saying... I know you too well)

gilbar said...

Left Bank of the Charles said...
I’m looking forward to the day when the death rate gets down to the level it was in June 2021 and stays there
in Iowa it's been below the June,2021 levels (3/day) for quite some time (since December)

Not My Fault, that you live in a place that has been encouraging covid with masks/mandates/etc. It's OVER, HERE

Tom Grey said...

Ann thinks breaking down the Covid political divide could help Dems- to avoid "looking like losers."
I'm sure they will be lying and half-truthing, with lying Dem media support - and lots of Dems will continue to believe Dem lies.
But I don't see how any Reps or those independents who lean Rep will instead lean Dem if the political divide breaks down over Covid.
Of course, Ann doesn't quite say "dividing the vaccinated" means. Most Reps support voluntary vaxxing, oppose vax mandates, want schools to stay open, want businesses to have a choice to stay open or not.

The Rep policies, like what DeSantis did, seems to be optimal, with opinions & analysis converging on those policies. This will help more Reps vote Rep, and even more Dems vote Rep.

The Atlantic and soon other Dem media will be trying to minimize the cross-overs from more dishonest communication & bad/ costly policy from the Dems, to less dishonest comm & less costly policy from the Reps.

Of course, it's very unlikely in Jan that there won't be more excuses, and some even true, for Dems who want to, to vote Dem. But as the "Covid Truth", or at least "Covid Optimal Policy", increasingly looks like the Reps were better, they'll naturally get more relative votes from Dems who are tired of the Dem lies.

Tom Grey said...

It would be nice if more leaders were clear about the end of the pandemic:
" When death rates from Omicron are similar to or less than annual flu,"

I'd even say, flatly, when death rates from Covid are no longer the biggest daily/ weekly killers.
And we're already there.

tim in vermont said...
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tim in vermont said...

Had we a nuke ready to go, we would have ended the Pacific War, not leave the bomb in the hanger, and sacrifice thousands of lives while we fought the Germans in another theatre. What you are saying is that victory was probably inevitable, when we got around to fighting 'for realz,' once we were freed from fighting the Germans and could bring our full war machine to bear, which is a different thing than having a nuke ready to go as soon as we got the plane fueled up.

So I guess you are right, I don't understand your point.

tim in vermont said...

Oh look, we have a new political officer at our blog, complete with a working gaslight.

wendybar said...

Browndog said...
Mayor Muriel Bowser

Remember that starting Saturday you will need these three things before heading out:

1. Proof of Vaccination (12 years +)
2. Proof of Vaccination and Photo ID (18 years +)
3. Mask

12:36 PM · Jan 11, 2022·

1/11/22, 1:02 PM

But ensuring that you have an ID to vote is voter suppression.

rehajm said...

Get the rest of your covid related gripes in quick because based on the signals today even the Democrats are abandoning it as an issue. By next month it may not even exist as a topic of conversation (there will still be masks in blue places but no matter…)

Lefties are more interested in lining up the ducks for the November messaging. Early observations are the pitch could be something along the lines of ‘stick with us and we’ll do something about the big guy. We’ll talk more about (name of fantasy leftie President) after November…

Lem the artificially intelligent said...

Is this column a preemptive narrative twist?

Achilles said...

Browndog said...

Mayor Muriel Bowser

Remember that starting Saturday you will need these three things before heading out:

1. Proof of Vaccination (12 years +)
2. Proof of Vaccination and Photo ID (18 years +)
3. Mask

12:36 PM · Jan 11, 2022·


You need photo ID to leave your house.

But not to vote.

Anthony said...

I'm ignoring it altogether, as I largely did all along because I'm decidedly not in a high risk group. And yes, depending on your risk factors, it can be either much worse than or much better than a typical or bad flu.

Drago said...

Mike (MJB Wolf): "I don’t believe you Left Bank. Daily death toll has been dropping and continues to do so yet you’re still saying “if” it happens. When do you acknowledge reality?"

Left Bank still believes deeply in the hoax Russia Collusion narrative AND he is still on board with the hoax Hillary dossier.

Given that, the answer to the question "when will Left Bank acknowledge reality?" answer itself: Never.

Anthony said...

Just a note on 'cases': Literally (not figuratively-literally, literally no one knows what cases are. Case counts can be ignored. They are positive tests of some sort, but know one differentiates them. Are they PCR tests? False positives? Active illnesses? How many are multiple tests on the same person? No one knows.

I interviewed for a data manager position with my state's Covid group and when they asked if I had research ideas we might pursue, I suggested looking into what all these cases actually were, and one of them told me flat-out that no one reports what they are (at least in this state, most likely everywhere). I also then said "Well, if you don't even know what it is you're counting, how the f*** do you even know what's going on?"

Didn't get it. Probably wouldn't have taken it either, we would have been at odds.

Browndog said...
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wildswan said...

Nice list, Amadeus 9:38
But I question: "Item: Covid 19 does present a serious threat to the population over 65 for various reasons."
As I see it more people over sixty die from Covid because more people over sixty have accumulated two or more systemic diseases and gotten fat. It isn't age per se. I think Covid - from Original through Delta to Omicron - is better classified as killing members of two groups: those of whatever age with two or more systemic diseases such as diabetes, heart diseases, renal failure, cirrhosis; those of whatever age with one major systemic disease. Being vaxxed helps members of these groups resist; obesity makes death more likely. And then Covid also kills some healthy people but far, far fewer than are in the other two groups. It's the deaths in the other two groups that is causing pandemic panic. (Maybe people of all ages should think of losing weight as a really practical action against death from Covid.)
It is now evident that Biden is disregarding the presence of these diseases in those who die while continuing to issue and maintain mask and vax mandates for political reasons. The political problem is that changing Biden's mandates immediately creates a credibility problem for his supporters who were recently ordering anti-maskers and non-vaxxers about. They find themselves incredible to themselves, whereas if Biden waits a few months to change they can quietly move on and forget what they said. Yet AOC and other prominent fully vaxxed and boosted Dems have gotten Covid, thus rendering Biden and and his statements about how the unvaxxed were going to be sick and die all winter long while the vaxxed would be OK. And yet, AOC. Moreover, people are being fired because of Biden's mandates. They'll never forgive Biden for causing them to be fired just to keep his supporters from having to admit they were wrong. And the schools, closed by teacher's unions? That's on Biden and his silly science which his big city Dem allies are using.

wildswan said...

Nice list, Amadeus 9:38
But I question: "Item: Covid 19 does present a serious threat to the population over 65 for various reasons."
As I see it more people over sixty die from Covid because more people over sixty have accumulated two or more systemic diseases and gotten fat. It isn't age per se. I think Covid - from Original through Delta to Omicron - is better classified as killing members of two groups: those of whatever age with two or more systemic diseases such as diabetes, heart diseases, renal failure, cirrhosis; those of whatever age with one major systemic disease. Being vaxxed helps members of these groups resist; obesity makes death more likely. And then Covid also kills some healthy people but far, far fewer than are in the other two groups. It's the deaths in the other two groups that is causing pandemic panic. (Maybe people of all ages should think of losing weight as a really practical action against death from Covid.)
It is now evident that Biden is disregarding the presence of these diseases in those who die while continuing to issue and maintain mask and vax mandates for political reasons. The political problem is that changing Biden's mandates immediately creates a credibility problem for his supporters who were recently ordering anti-maskers and non-vaxxers about. They find themselves incredible to themselves, whereas if Biden waits a few months to change they can quietly move on and forget what they said. Yet AOC and other prominent fully vaxxed and boosted Dems have gotten Covid, thus rendering Biden and and his statements about how the unvaxxed were going to be sick and die all winter long while the vaxxed would be OK. And yet, AOC. Moreover, people are being fired because of Biden's mandates. They'll never forgive Biden for causing them to be fired just to keep his supporters from having to admit they were wrong. And the schools, closed by teacher's unions? That's on Biden and his silly science which his big city Dem allies are using.

Left Bank of the Charles said...

gilbar - “in Iowa it's been below the June,2021 levels (3/day) for quite some time (since December) Not My Fault, that you live in a place that has been encouraging covid with masks/mandates/etc. It's OVER, HERE”

That would be wonderful if it were true as I have lots of family and friends in Iowa. But when I look at the Daily Deaths chart for Iowa that you cite, the area under the line for the last month looks a whole lot higher than for June. Overall, the state I live in has a per capita death rate that is 41% less than Iowa.

When the pandemic is over, and I’m confident it will end and perhaps sooner than later, a great many of us who survive are going to feel that our personal survival strategy on social distancing, masking, and vaccines was the best strategy. But those who have lost loved ones are going to be entitled to ask what we could have done better to save more lives.

LA_Bob said...

Darkisland said, "No, not sure, I was being facaetious."

Not always easy to tell this sort of thing. Somebody, maybe on Twitter, maybe on one of the substacks I read, suggested Walensky was being set up to "take the fall" for COVID mismanagement. I'm skeptical. I don't think the tribe eats its own unless they absolutely, positively, unquestionably have to.

It was a substack, from one of your "countrymen"...

https://boriquagato.substack.com/p/kitten-corner-old-enough-to-remember/comments

That "dark island" has some bright people.

Iman said...

“We knew before it all blew up March 2019,”

Off by one year? March of 2020

Michelle Dulak Thomson said...

I called a friend today, hoping that she could take me to Trader Joe's. (We have a standing agreement that also involves me picking up whatever her family needs and paying for it.) She tells me that half of her family has Covid, including herself. So, no go.

My husband teaches in a public high school, and tells me that the No. 2 worry is how many kids will be missing today. (The No. 1 worry is, will there be anyone there to teach the kids who do show up? Or enough bus drivers to get them to school? There is zero margin on both of these.)

Incidentally, my friend tells me that her doctor told her that, of the many people presenting with flu-like symptoms, about half have . . . garden-variety flu, not Covid. I suppose I ought to have expected that. Last year, it was as if the flu disappeared, but that's implausible in the extreme. I think last year's flu infections were merely relabeled Covid, but now doctors are actually testing rather than assuming. Which is awkward now that the Fauci/CDC position is that testing doesn't do anyone much good, just as Biden has ordered a gazillion more tests . . .

Big Mike said...

@Left Bank, and perhaps the people who lost loved ones to suicide or to drug overdoses during the lockdowns can ask whether we did more than we needed to, and for unnecessary reasons. People who died because hospitals were turning away patients who needed exploratory surgery, their friends and loved ones might ask similar questions.

Gospace said...

Yancey Ward said...
...I wrote well over 1 1/2 years ago in these very threads that a day would come when no one will remember having personally supported lockdowns, mandated masking, and school closures.


Ah, but the internet is forever. You'll be hard put to find where I ever supported lockdowns, masking at all- mandated or voluntary, and school closures. Because- I didn't/And I think the next Republican POTUS ought fire immediately all flag and general officers responsible for ordering our military to mask and vaccinate. Pretty much by definition from the very beginning we knew that young healthy people weren't at risk- and 60% of the military is <26, less than 10% over 40, and- they're healthier than the general population.

From rumblings I hear, the FOGOS had better hope and pray that the vaxxes don't cause an increase in death rates among the 18-26 year old cohort.

Big Mike said...

Who wins and who loses if the political divide on Covid breaks down — as it seems to be breaking down because of Omicron?

@Althouse, the way you phrased this question has been bothering me since I got up this morning. Wouldn’t it be great if we worried less about the fate of political parties and more about what it means for the people to come out ahead?

John henry said...

 LA_Bob said...

It was a substack, from one of your "countrymen"...

https://boriquagato.substack.com/p/kitten-corner-old-enough-to-remember/comments

That "dark island" has some bright people.

Thanks for the link, Bob. Interesting.

And we do have some very bright people. Many of the nonbright emigrated to NYC in the 40 and 50s.

We were initially proud of Justice Sotomayor for becoming a Supreme even if she is a nyorican (like AOC) rather than Puerto Rican. Now we are happy THAT she is usually identified as just Latina rather than giving us all a bad name.



I'm Not Sure said...

"Wouldn’t it be great if we worried less about the fate of political parties and more about what it means for the people to come out ahead?"

Democrats, nearly in unison, say "Wut"?

Narayanan said...

Big Mike said...
Who wins and who loses if the political divide on Covid breaks down — as it seems to be breaking down because of Omicron?

@Althouse, the way you phrased this question has been bothering me since I got up this morning. Wouldn’t it be great if we worried less about the fate of political parties and more about what it means for the people to come out ahead?
-----
Name the last President who was worried enough to want for for the people to come out ahead?

and you have your answer when it became a zerosum game with blood and ruin as forfeit

Narayanan said...

Iman said...
“You might think, that's what Democrats do — take forcible actions and displace private decision-making — that's their brand.”

Democrats place more value on the good - heroic in their eyes? - intentions they desperately need to feel they had when taking “forcible actions” than the usual horrible results that would chasten normal citizens.
------
so in real life practice

>>>> good intentions but why not take credit ? sincere Ooops should do it!

Aformer DARPA official claimed in a letter to the Inspector General of the Department of Defense last summer that “a synthetic spike protein chimera” was created at the Wuhan Institute of Virology to inoculate bats in caves, but it escaped from the lab before it was ready, causing the COVID-19 pandemic instead.....

The research was conducted at the Wuhan Lab in China and at several sites other across the US, according to the whistleblower.....

In its March 2018 proposal, EcoHealth described in detail how it planned to inoculate bats with the coronavirus spike proteins “to enhance their immune memory against specific, high risk viruses.” ...

The Godfather said...

As a policy matter, I agree with those who say we shouldn't shut down the country to protect people for whom Covid isn't a serious threat. On the other hand, my wife and I are in our (very) late 70's, with serious medical issues. Folks who say, "Covid is only a threat to old people with medical problems" are referring to us. You'd do better in selling your argument to our demographic if you recognized the need to treat us differently from younger, healthier people.

Greg The Class Traitor said...

The messiness of Omicron data—record-high cases! but much milder illness!—has deepened our COVID Rashomon, in which different communities are telling themselves different stories about what’s going on, and coming to different conclusions about how to lead their lives. That’s true even within populations that, a year ago, were united in their desire to take the pandemic seriously and were outraged by those who refused to do so....

Derek would have had a lot more credibility if he put "take the pandemic seriously" in quotes, indicating that it was a claim, rather than a reality.

I Take Covid seriously. NY Democrat Governor Andrew Cuomo, and several other Democrat Governors, killed a lot of old people by forcing LTCFs to take in Covid positive residents, as a payoff to hospital executives.

What I don't do is run around scream that the world will end, and we must all hide at home, because of a disease that mainly is seriously only in the elderly

The article-writer doesn't go anywhere with the political analysis he sets up. He doesn't even see the political question I put in my post title, which I wrote when I was a quarter of the way through his piece. So let me try to answer my own question.

Here's why the breakdown of the political divide could help Democrats. If fighting Omicron is a losing game, the perception that it's not a fight anymore keeps the Democrats, who are in charge, from looking like losers. If Omicron is accepted — relatively benign, unstoppably fast-moving — then there's less expectation that the government will take forcible actions and displace private decision-making.


I think it's simpler than that:
The lockdown effects are possing off voters. Be it "remote learning" schools that force parents to stay at home with their kids rather than go to their jobs, the supply chain issue, the inflation, teh costs of Covid are pissing off voters.

As the "people in charge" are Democrats, this means the voters are getting pissed at the Democrats.
See VA and NJ elections, with 12 pt shifts to the GOP, and a sweep of statewide elective offices for teh GOP in VA

The people running the Democrat Party are now trying to reverse the hype, because they don't want to get crushed in Nov

Sadly for them, their base has believed the "we're all going to die" bullshit that teh Dems have been putting out for the last two years, and isn't willing to give up their fears.

Enough about politicians. What about ordinary people? What should you do about Omicron and should it have a damned thing to do with politics? Should you keep making demands of other people, or should you look to your own health and the health of your family? If the answer to that question is political — and I'm afraid it is! — then it's time for me to type the last word of this post and hit publish.
What should ordinary people do? Well, if you're a significant risk from Covid, which is to say at least over 50, more likely over 70, and have multiple co-morbidities, get teh Covid shots.

If not? Do what you place.

But, in any case, STFU about it. We don't care how many shots you've had, we don't care how happy you are with your mask. Other people getting the shots isn't going to make you better off, so just STFU about it

Bunkypotatohead said...

The dems can see that covid is not gonna get the votes they need. So they are anxious to switch to their favorite campaign theme...the hated Trump and his white supremacist insurrectionists.
Maybe they'll find some way to impeach him again before November.

What's emanating from your penumbra said...

Folks who say, "Covid is only a threat to old people with medical problems" are referring to us. You'd do better in selling your argument to our demographic if you recognized the need to treat us differently from younger, healthier people.

I'm not sure I've seen people say that as a way of making the point that the danger to your demographic isn't important. It's usually part of the argument that if only certain people are in danger by leaving their house, perhaps a more targeted policy is for those people to stay home instead of making everyone stay home.

Greg The Class Traitor said...

The Godfather said...
As a policy matter, I agree with those who say we shouldn't shut down the country to protect people for whom Covid isn't a serious threat. On the other hand, my wife and I are in our (very) late 70's, with serious medical issues. Folks who say, "Covid is only a threat to old people with medical problems" are referring to us. You'd do better in selling your argument to our demographic if you recognized the need to treat us differently from younger, healthier people.

We did, and always have.

it's the pro-lockdown fruitcakes who haven't done that. See Democrat Governors and LTCFs

rcommal said...

FWIW:

We have a house in New Castle County, Delaware, and also we have a house in Lake County, Florida. I am in Florida.

We’ve also spent lots of time in Midwestern states over our lives.

LOTS.

How come y’all think there’s only one way to consider things?