November 23, 2021

"Trump’s shadow campaign... recently polled Trump-Biden matchups in the five states, all of which were decided in 2020 by fewer than 3 percentage points."

"According to the poll, a memo of which was obtained by POLITICO, the former president led Biden in Arizona by 8 percentage points, Georgia by 3 points, Michigan by 12 points, Pennsylvania by 6 points and Wisconsin by 10 points.... On 10 different issues ranging from immigration to gun control to the economy, Trump bests Biden in the swing states, often by double digits, according to the poll...."

56 comments:

Gahrie said...

Trump is too old to run for president again. While Trump is capable now, Biden has shown us how quickly the drop off can be.

JRoberts said...

This kind of polling must cause Biden to poop his pants. Oh wait, he's already doing that on a regular basis...

Seriously, while I'm glad to see the polling reflects the lousy job Biden/Harris are doing, I really hope Trump does not run again.

Wince said...

Crowd Lays Down Path Of MyPillows As Trump Triumphantly Rides Donkey Into D.C.

...thus fulfilling the prophecy, “Behold, thy Orange King cometh unto thee, meek, meeker than all others, the meekest maybe, and sitting upon an ass, that he kicketh ass and draineth swamps.”

Can Of Cheese for Hunter said...

WOW - WHAT A SWITCH. iT'S AS IF THE LEFT CHEATED IN TARGETED PRECINCTS IN TARGETED STATES in 2020. but it's illegal to say so.

OR DID EVERYONE JUST WAKE UP?

sorry for all-caps.

tim maguire said...

Based on those numbers, Trump wind Michigan and Wisconsin, Biden wins Georgia, and Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are a toss up.

Michael K said...

Did that poll include the millions of fake mail-in ballots ?

Vance said...

Certain posters here hardest hit.

I would genuinely expect Chucky Cheese to eat a bullet if Trump were to be elected again, Grover Cleveland style.

Whether that is a bad thing or not... well, I'll let each of us decide that one.

BarrySanders20 said...

Lots of possibilities here. Could be true and accurate polling that accurately captures the current mood of those states. But why assume accuracy for any poll or no agenda for the pollster?

Maybe it's misinformation intended to
1. lure Trump into the race?
2. force Biden out?
3. induce the Senate to act on the Hey Big Spender bill?

Gunner said...

Won't the Arizonans still have their fee fees hurt by the way he didn't bow down and admit that McCain was a bigger war hero than Rambo and every John Wayne character combined?

Big Mike said...

Wisconsin is a bit of a surprise. Perhaps some of the voters in 2020 thought that electing Joe Biden would mean peace and prosperity and no more riots, and therefore they feel disappointed. The dawning realization that Tony Evers could have done much more to stop the riots (“fiery but mostly peaceful protests”) in Kenosha probably doesn’t help Joe Biden.

And note that this is Biden vs. Trump. My sense is that there are many, many voters who approve of Trump’s economic policies and the Abraham Accords (especially after seeing the impact of Biden’s and Pelosi’s policies), but who cannot stomach Donald Trump the person. Running someone less abrasive (who will nevertheless be the second coming of Adolph Hitler, because all Republicans running for President are the second coming of Adolph Hitler) but who pledges to restore energy independence, fight inflation, and restore Trump’s economic policies might create an election that looks like Reagan ‘84.

Lem said...

you won't see this in network news broadcasts.

rehajm said...

I don’t think there should be that much of a shift. Something else must have happened…

Chris Lopes said...

The poll just shows what a shit show Biden has turned out to be. A significant portion of the American public is willing (with good reason) to bring back Orange the Clown if it means sending Grampa Simpson to a nursing home. I don't think anyone predicted this amount of failure on so many levels. Amazing.

John henry said...

President Trump will be ineligible to run in 2024.

He will have served 7 years as president, resuming the office by the end of this year.

Kamala quits, pedjt us confirmed as veep. T by then Brandon quits and it's president trump.

LGBTQBNY

John Henry

tim in vermont said...

As my handle betrays, I live in Vermont, and it sort of has a MAGA vibe, right now anyway. Three years from now, who knows?

tim in vermont said...

I won't vote for Trump in the primaries, but if he wins the nomination, it's broken glass time. I think he is too old, and Father Time is undefeated, as the sports scribes oft aver.

Gabriel said...

@Big Mike:Running someone less abrasive (who will nevertheless be the second coming of Adolph Hitler, because all Republicans running for President are the second coming of Adolph Hitler) but who pledges to restore energy independence, fight inflation, and restore Trump’s economic policies might create an election that looks like Reagan ‘84.

The only reason Trump was elected is because every voter already knew who he was and who Hillary Clinton was, and the media narratives that attempted to define the candidates didn't work.

Any non-Trump Republican will be unknown to most voters before the media sets out to demonize him.

The only chance a non-Trump has is that everyone is seeing how things are now and knows which party is in charge now.

Greg The Class Traitor said...

The GA numbers look low, but the rest seem right

tim in vermont said...

He's not gonna run against Biden, whose approval is currently 36% or Harris, who, last check, was at 28%. Not sure who he will run at, but if the Democrats can avoid stepping on a rake,(unlikely, I know) it will be somebody better than either of those two.

Bender said...

If that is all the support Trump has over Brandon NOW, then forget it.

Trump is the past in any event. But just like 2015-16, it is mainly the media that is obsessed with Trump. Most of America, including Trump voters, have moved on.

tim in vermont said...

Oh, shit. Nancy Pelosi is gonna be living up the beach from Donald Trump. I am thinking she is retiring, away from California.

Big Mike said...

@Gabriel, point taken.

gilbar said...

Wince said...
Crowd Lays Down Path Of MyPillows As Trump Triumphantly Rides Donkey Into D.C.
...thus fulfilling the prophecy


Hosanna hey sanna sanna sanna ho Sanna hey sanna hosanna
[CROWD]
Hey DT, DT, won't you fight for me?
Sanna hosanna hey superstar

{the Donald]
Sing me your songs, but not for me alone
Sing out for yourselves, for you are blessed
There is not one of you who cannot win the kingdom
The slow, the suffering, the quick, the dead

[CROWD]
Hey DT, DT, won't you die for me?
Sanna hosanna hey superstar

Every time I look at you
I don't understand
Why you let the things you did
Get so out of hand
You'd have managed better
If you'd had it planned
Now why'd you choose such a backward time
And such a strange land?

(Don't you get me wrong, now)
(Only want to know, now)

Donald Trump, Donald Trump
Who are you? What have you come to Bump?
Donald Trump Superstar
Do you think you're what they say you are

Drago said...

Bender: "If that is all the support Trump has over Brandon NOW, then forget it.

Trump is the past in any event. But just like 2015-16, it is mainly the media that is obsessed with Trump. Most of America, including Trump voters, have moved on."

The republican primary electorate has not moved on from Trump. Anyone who says otherwise is delusional.

In the republican primary in 2024, barring something cataclysmic between now and then, if Trump wants the nomination then it is his.

Even against DeSantis, whom I like very much.

Drago said...

Chris Lopes: "I don't think anyone predicted this amount of failure on so many levels. Amazing."

This is not "failure". This is precisely what the dems had planned all along.

I suspect they simply thought they could brazenly burn it all down while blaming everyone else and the build the New Utopia on top of the ashes

Cloward Piven x 1000.

gadfly said...

Politico reported on 11/15/17 that Biden would beat Trump by 11 points and the final 2020 result was A 4.4% win for Biden.

So margin of error is at play in the November 2021 Politico poll with Trump leading Biden by 3 points for 2024.

gadfly said...

Politico reported on 11/15/17 that Biden would beat Trump by 11 points and the final 2020 result was A 4.4% win for Biden.

So margin of error is at play in the November 2021 Politico poll with Trump leading Biden by 3 points for 2024.

Jersey Fled said...

Way too early to be worrying about polls for an election almost three years from now.

On a related note, Biden once again seems to be trying to tank his approval ratings by requiring all non-resident essential workers crossing into the United States be fully vaccinated for Wuhan coronavirus. Like truck drivers. Thus tanking the economy further. Illegals of course are encouraged to cross without being vaccinated or tested.

Who in the world is advising this man?

Rollo said...

Biden will be gone by 2024 (and Pelosi and maybe Harris will be gone too). All the failures will become Biden's fault, or turned into triumphs. The Dems will pretend to have a clean slate. Suburbanites will still turn up their noses at Trump, and the most diverse and extensive voter fraud team will still be on the job. Will it work again? Who knows?

Drago said...

The Poor Man's *** ***** gadfly: "So margin of error is at play in the November 2021 Politico poll with Trump leading Biden by 3 points for 2024."

Variable change is clearly a concept that eludes you.

Its as if you were a child.

Drago said...

Jersey Fled: "Who in the world is advising this man?"

See my Cloward-Piven comment above.

They know exactly what they are doing and why. They require a total system collapse to shove thru all their permanent "temporary" self-inflicted crisis measures.

Sebastian said...

"if Trump wants the nomination then it is his"

Probably. But it would still be a mistake. He failed as president to beat the deep state. He failed as a candidate to deal with the other side's dirty tricks. He failed as a politician to broaden his base to include essential constituencies. He is a loser. The GOP needs a winner.

DeSantis has a better sense of what he is up against, and can articulate it. Youngkin shows you can hold on to the deplorables and still reach some of the nice women.

Achilles said...

Drago said...

In the republican primary in 2024, barring something cataclysmic between now and then, if Trump wants the nomination then it is his.

Even against DeSantis, whom I like very much.


Desantis will make a great VP for 4 years.

Put him in charge of election reform.

Greg The Class Traitor said...

tim in vermont said...
He's not gonna run against Biden, whose approval is currently 36% or Harris, who, last check, was at 28%. Not sure who he will run at, but if the Democrats can avoid stepping on a rake,(unlikely, I know) it will be somebody better than either of those two.

Who?

Bernie Sanders?

Elizabeth Warren, who promised to take away suburban mom's private health insurance?

For that matter, when's the last time Lieawatha even made it into the news?

Mayor Pete, the Transportation Sec who completely fucked up the supply chain crisis?

Oh, oh, I know! Beto! After all, getting your ass kicked in the TX gov race is a great way to start your Presidential campaign!

Some Democrats already took out Cuomo. Other than the Democrat Gov of North Carolina, exactly who do the Dems have "on the bench" who's not a complete socialist nut?

I agree, Biden won't be running in 2024. But I don't believe that the Democrats have anyone better waiting in the wings.

Obama slaughtered the Democrat "bench" in 2010 and 2014. Biden is going to re-slaughter any new Democrat "bench" in 2022.

Name on Democrat Governor, anywhere in the US, who is actually accomplishing things of a positive nature.

I can't

Rt41Rebel said...

"Who?"

As I posted in a recent cafe thread, DR Jill is the best that they have. She's a DOCTOR, she's a WOMAN, and she is already doing the job.

Drago said...

Sebastian: "Probably. But it would still be a mistake. He failed as president to beat the deep state. He failed as a candidate to deal with the other side's dirty tricks. He failed as a politician to broaden his base to include essential constituencies. He is a loser. The GOP needs a winner.
DeSantis has a better sense of what he is up against, and can articulate it. Youngkin shows you can hold on to the deplorables and still reach some of the nice women."

All irrelevant.

If Trump wants the nomination, its his. No one else on the R side will beat him. Including DeSantis. You need to internalize that factoid as reality.

And then proceed from there.

And if you think the deep staters weaponized fully by the DOJ/FBI and big tech and big media and Big Election Tech won't do the exact same thing to any republican nominee, you are sadly mistaken.

What happened to Trump in 2020, the massive corruption and the "in your face" gaslighting denials by the dems & NeverTrumpers/AlwaysDemocraticals, is now the baseline of what we are up against for every future Presidential election.

Jim said...

the obamas are waiting in the wings. Michelle is the most electable democrat at this point. the media, hollywood, middle class and upper class white women, social media et al. will be on board.
Both of the obamas are, to me, disgusting individuals. Fake, phony, and willing to say and do anything for power.
no one would beat her or her spouse in 2024. and the fools who voted for him the first time have yet to make a connection between the race war we are in now, and obamas policies.
But hey, hes funny, cleans up nice, and his wife will be the first black female president. thats worth destroying this country for, isn't it?

Rollo said...

I saw the crummy horror picture where the characters cringe in terror and keep saying to themselves over and over again, "Don't think it. Don't say it."

I'm not sure what "it" was, but I think it might have been, "Hey, Trump wasn't really such a bad president after all."

walter said...

What was the oversampling %?
Big Mike said...
Wisconsin is a bit of a surprise.
--
Yeah. Election here was clean as a (rape) whistle.

walter said...

Oh my..the Michelle Obama running notion is still alive.
Way too much effort involved.

Sebastian said...

"If Trump wants the nomination, its his"

As I said, probably. But then let's also internalize the sheer scope of his failure, and the likely repeat. Perhaps there will be enough rational voters who want to win the general election instead, and accomplish something.

Big Mike said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Gahrie said...

2024 is going to be Stacy Abrams V Nikki Haley.

BUMBLE BEE said...

Drago @5:30 Just so. This was foreseen by Buwaya. It's why he bugged out. Miss that guy. I'm surprised so many ignore Cloward/Piven. It is the lens of today's dems.

tim in vermont said...

"Obama slaughtered the Democrat "bench" in 2010 and 2014."

Hillary was the Lady MacBeth to that murder rampage. Not to mention the Democrat Red Guards are there to make sure no moderate has a chance.

My I think that they have piled their chips on the crypto commie, Pete Buttigieg, for this spin of the wheel.

AMDG said...

The only thing lying between Republican sweeps,of the next two elections is Donald Trump.

If he does actually love the country he will conduct himself as he did in the Virginia this year.


Critter said...

This is one time when the polling is more accurate than the results at the polls in 2020.

Gospace said...

Bender said...
If that is all the support Trump has over Brandon NOW, then forget it.

Trump is the past in any event. But just like 2015-16, it is mainly the media that is obsessed with Trump. Most of America, including Trump voters, have moved on.


In the Wallyworld parking lot yesterday saw two pickups, new models, with brand new "Trump 2024" stickers.

At least 4 houses on my 36 mile to work commute have "Trump 2024" flags up. And there a lot of faded "Trump 2020" flags still waving.

The evidence say people haven't moved on. Mine's been replaced by a historic flag. 3 poles- the Bennington 76 Flag, Navy Flag, generic Christian flag, the Gadsden Flag or the original Navy jack. Right now the two others are the Gonzalez Flag anf the Bedford Flag.

Lots more Gadsden Flags around then ever in the past. if you start observing while you drive instead of just staring at the road you'll notice that too.

Big Mike said...

The fact that Joe Biden is addled doesn’t mean that everyone in their late 70’s is addle-brained.

Bruce Hayden said...

I think that Sec Beta is going to get wiped out pretty good in the TX Gov race next year, and Sec Buttplug was on extended maternity leave when the container ship situation blew up. Neither has the heft to run successfully against either Trump, DeSantis, or several other Republicans. Both are unserious lightweights. When Trump was President, he was always the center of any group, including of foreign heads of state. Biden wanders off to the side. I think that we are all looking for some gravitas and presence there. Many of feel that it is our right to be at the center of the world, not, as now, wandering off, and soiling our diapers. No wonder no one was standing next to Biden.

That’s the problem with almost every Dem candidate - lack of presence and gravitas. The Dems have their retreads: Michelle, Crooked Hillary, and maybe Lurch, the Catsup King. The pressure may become strong enough to draft Michelle, despite her complete lack of any relevant experience.

But the thing that isn’t being taken into account is that the Biden Administration is doing horribly, and there is no evidence that the Dems have woken to their problems. Their inflation is just starting to hit. It is going to be brutal. But I think just as bad are going to be the after effects of their COVID-19 policies. They just keep doubling down, again and again. They are essentially destroying our economy demanding that everyone be “vaccinated” again, and again, by these minimally tested experimental gene therapies. They are now apparently killing babies with it, and probably reducing fertility for a generation. At 71, I probably know more people killed by the vaccines, than the virus, and that just increases as you get younger and younger age cohorts. There is no rational reason to be requiring anyone to be vaccinated, since the people who really can benefit from it, are mostly retired. Yet, as I said, they keep doubling down. We are losing the crème of our military, with vaccination mandates, where total COVID-19 deaths have been on the order of magnitude of some training accidents. They are talking now about long haul truck drivers, who sit in their cabs, alone, except for their spouses. Etc. as for masking - besides it’s complete ineffectiveness in preventing spread of the disease, it is now being used to hide the identity of their growing organized looting parties. In three years, this will all be old news, and the party that forced it on us will be tainted by that malfeasance for a generation.

Drago said...

AMDG: "The only thing lying between Republican sweeps,of the next two elections is Donald Trump.
If he does actually love the country he will conduct himself as he did in the Virginia this year."

This is so very 1 dimensional and so very very dumb. And only someone who hasn't been paying close enough attention for the last 20 years could possibly write it.

Go back to the "beginning", 2015. Why did Donald Trump even think he could jump into a crowded rep primary and win?

Because the entirety of the rep leadership class showed themselves to be feckless idiots who didn't believe much if any of what they sold to the rep base and gave us Failure Theatre moments one after another whereby the democrat policy ratchet kept getting cranked further to the left.

Trump was the guy who walked up and said, well, why don't we just fight for the rep base the way democrats fight for their base?

And that was all it took. That was it. AMDG had an army of his/her "dream" non-Trump candidates in 2016 and everyone of them would have been ground up by the Clinton Machine...and Jeb would have thanked Clinton for pounding his skull into submission.

So, what is the ONLY thing that could keep the reps from winning sweeps in the next 2 elections? The same thing that had stopped them multiple times in recent decades: republican party leadership Weakness and cowardice and strong desire to be liked within the beltway and the inability to resist the siren call of free cash which purchases their principles.

McConnell and the Senate squishes worked with Schumer to deny Trump any kind of a staff that would carry out the more populist rep policies that got Trump elected. Weak tea Ryan sold out reps in the House...because he wanted to be loved more by Lachlan Murdoch than the rep base. Talk to us about McCarthy letting Frank Luntz drive his decision-making. Romney marched with BLM!

If any of the other reps had put in half the effort to fight for the rep base in the way Trump had, and fought back against the dems half as hard as Trump did, and pushed back on the "enemy of the people" fake media half as much as Trump did, then Trump never would have been the nominee at all.

No, Trump is the ONLY thing keeping fire to the feet of the republicans to fight back hard against the media, democraticals, national security state, etc though DeSantis is doing pretty well on this point.

Those "rep" cats who signed off on Biden's bill in the House, Cheney/Kinzinger acting as throw pillows for Nancy, etc., and the republicans who defend that behavior? Those are the types who could cost republicans sweeps in coming elections.

The republican party base has returned to its interesting and compelling 1920's-like populist, working class (of all races), anti-failed/inept establishment and anti-corruption roots and ANY republican who can harness that and ride it like a whirlwhind against the encroaching fascism of our national security state and astonishing DC corruption can win and it sure doesn't have to be Trump. But do you see many other volunteers?

So get your analysis on track here: The dems are expanding their Cloward-Piven strategy at a super-nova pace across all sectors of our society and no "standard issue republican" is ever going to be able to withstand the heat from those coming political confrontations.

None of them.

You really think the democraticals aren't going to "fortify" more elections with their big tech allies? Create more hoax dossiers? Have the DOJ/FBI send in agent provocateurs into more rallies/gatherings? Initiate more cross-agency spying groups on republicans?

You better have someone with alot more than just "fire in the belly", because in the future, the democraticals are going to be in Full And Complete Destruction Of Opponents Entire Family Mode.

This is where we are. Let me guess AMDG, we should nominate Ben Sasse....

Bruce Hayden said...

I don’t see Transportation Secretary Buttplug going anywhere. Just show a bunch of container ships sitting at anchor off the ports of LA or Long Beach, and ask where he was then? Then counterpose that with a picture of him on maternity leave wearing his nursing harness, nursing his new babies. Two months of maternity leave, to pretend to nurse babies that they bought, and therefore could have been acquired at a more convenient time. All while all those container ships backed up more and more offshore. How many Americans really want the head of our government, of our military, to be someone who prioritized pretending to nurse babies over the American people to have Christmas this year (or me to get the fans that were supposed to show up over a month ago)? If he runs, he will be the national laughingstock by mid summer of 2024.

Greg The Class Traitor said...

Jim said...
the obamas are waiting in the wings. Michelle is the most electable democrat at this point. the media, hollywood, middle class and upper class white women, social media et al. will be on board.

Not going to happen. Let me tell you why:

How rich are the Obamas right now? How did they get that money?

In a word: payoffs

The Clinton's set up the Clinton Foundation to be their money laundering organization. So far as I know, the Obamas didn't bother, they just have the money flowing straight to them.

If you want to have 80 -90% of the WWC voting Republicans, plus a majority of hispanics and asians voting Republicans, get hundred millionaire "Michelle!", who's never accomplished anything in her life other than riding her husband's coat tails, as the Dem Presidential nominee.

Oh, and while back females and AWFLs (angry white female leftists) will vote for "Michelle" in droves, I expect she'll have a relatively hard time getting black male votes. Because she's got nothing to offer them

BobReisner said...

Never and not and no Trump people on this comment thread maybe correct but likely also horribly wrong. Trump is, IMHO, the only viable candidate for 2024.

I live in Florida and love the job DeSantis is doing. He would be a great president. He likely won't get elected in 2024 if he ran. And no other Trump alternative either.

We have seen this story before. A good person with a great history and a god plan gets defeated ... look at Romney in 2012. Romney lost because he wasn't as well known as he needed to be in the run up to the actual election campaign period. Prior to his nomination and post nomination he was defined by democrats as something bad. Advertising works. Dog on roof, high school fights, binders of women, lack of support for cancer patients, rich guy bad, etc. A good person by all objective accounts was trashed and it had enough effect to give Obama his second term.

Trump is so widely known and already so widely defined that these kind of attacks really don't work. No one has explained why it will be different this time for Trump or different this time for any other Republican candidate.

DeSantis is even less well known to the country. Ditto for every other candidate. And all of the prospective candidates couldn't get 10,000+ people to dozens of rallies. They all lack the energy that busts through media 'blackout' that is inevitable.

Bad Trump got more votes than any other Republican candidate in history. And more votes than any other Democrat except one.

The 2020 election shows the raw power of the democrat party approach of candidate destruction, base vote generation, election process control and media control. Obama was a real candidate for the Democratic party ... first Black president, solid orator and campaigner, and communicated a program to the base. Biden is just another old white guy who put in his time, with no charisma, unable to communicate in speeches, and generates no enthusiasm. I get why Obama won in 2008 but not why Biden won in 2020.

Biden's win was a machine win and 2024 could be an easy repeat against an unknown and undefined Republican candidate. Trump, today, seems like the only available option.

Lurker21 said...

To win, Trump has to become New Trump, more focused and presidential. I don't think he wants to do that or that he can do that. If he could, he should have done so last year and saved us a lot of trouble. I'm not sure DJT's biggest fans want New Trump either. His popularity was based on not being a typical politician. If he tries to be more conventional and "responsible" he may lose as many votes as he gains. De Santis might do alright, but I don't see any Republican doing better than Trump. I don't see any of the Democrats doing very well either.

Tyrone Slothrop said...

Listen, foax, 2024 is a long way away. I'll bet my bottom dollar the race will be DeSantis vs. Buttigieg, with DeSantis winning easily.