November 7, 2021

"I have argued for years that the conservative-populist coalition was born in 2008 when John McCain became the Republican nominee."

"These voters either stayed home or voted against their interests for Barack Obama because of his candidacy's historic and aspirational nature. By 2009, their breakaway began, and the anti-establishment Tea Party movement was born. The 2010 midterm elections demonstrated the coalition’s strength, but it felt the same way toward Mitt Romney as it had for McCain — nice guy but didn’t inspire them.... Democrats shed their blue-collar and rural voters that had been part of their coalition and went full elite progressive. The 2014 election was the result, an even worse bloodbath for Democrats than 2010. Two things were missed in the coverage of 2016. First, Trump was never the cause of that election — he was the result of a coalition that had been building for a decade, made up of suburban-educated voters, blue-collar and rural voters, and a growing number of middle-class Hispanic voters.... Now, Biden and the Democrats have been caught once again failing to appreciate why they were sent to Washington, D.C. They underestimated just how toxic their intersection with the cultural curators would be for them — with those constantly telling voters they are insurrectionists and racists and lying about voting laws in Georgia and Texas and Pennsylvania or smearing them because they don't want idiotic ideas driven into their children's skulls..."

Writes Salena Zito in "The voters revolt against our cultural curators, again" (Washington Examiner)."

43 comments:

Sebastian said...

"a coalition that had been building for a decade, made up of suburban-educated voters"

Except that many of those also despise the deplorables in general and Trump in particular. So GOP candidates have to tread carefully. Don't want the nice reasonable Althouses to abstain again.

"they don't want idiotic ideas driven into their children's skulls"

True. Nor do they want the country to be invaded. On the other hand, they are are happy to get some more of other people's money, so the Dem vote-buying scheme always will have some appeal. But it seems culture war plus crime plus immigration balance out give-aways and pandering for now.

tim in vermont said...

Trump did the same thing Durr did, he saw that the Democrats were sitting ducks after they kicked their FDR coalition to the curb. I say this because my dad came from FDR country, an upland dirt farm in PA, and right now, you could step across the muddy countryside without getting your shoes dirty, just jumping from Trump sign to Trump sign.

But whatever, there is nothing in this column that anybody reading the comment sections on blogs hasn't known for a long time. The whole need to co-opt the New York Times as a propaganda bullhorn was to prevent people from seeing this obvious truth.

Krumhorn said...

anti-establishment Tea Party??

There has probably never been a more main stream, regular Joe and Joann movement in America than the Tea Party. People who had never taken a political in their entire lives….including actual voting in many cases…got off their BarcaLoungers and told Our Dear Leader that we lull keep our dollars and he could keep the change. Then they picked up after themselves leaving the place cleaner than they found it.

- Krumhorn

Temujin said...

When I used to run my own business, I would teach my employees that the answer to any problem tends to lie right in front of us: Shut up and listen to your customers. They will tell you what they want, what they need. They answers are always out there presented to you. We need only to respond to what they want, not what we want, and they will be happy. When they are happy, we are happy.

We often talk here about the disconnect between, on one side, our Manhattan and DC media and politicos, Hollywood and academia, and on the other side, the rank and file Americans. It's as if we all live on different planets entirely. And it's often stated that so and so (fill in the blank) lives in a bubble. Lefties claim that people like me live in a bubble. I insist that they live in a bubble. The difference is that I rub elbows with real people of all walks of life.

Salena Zito is one of the few reporters who actually goes out into the countryside of middle America. The small and medium sized towns, some that surround large cities, some that are just out there away from the crowds. She talks to people, she does not do drive-by reporting. She sits down, looks around, gets some history of an area, a feel for the people in the area, and reports.

As she states, the answers for all of this are out there. One only has to listen. Can you imagine Nancy Pelosi, Kamala Harris, or anyone named Biden listening to random America? And if they do, will they think of them as honest opinions from real people or will they just consider them all racist, misogynist, trans-phobic white people? I think we know the answer.

Our current crop of cultural curators has no clue what they talk about. They are the least informed among us. And their effectiveness at carrying the narrative is waning quickly. It's almost to the point of people just not listening to them at all anymore.

I call that progress.

Mark said...

Nothing was born in 2008, when more people voted for Sarah Palin than John McCain (or 2012, when more than a few told anyone who would listen what a disaster Romney would be, only to be told by too many "conservative" people here who great he was (people who now mock a certain person who shall go unnamed)).

The people who traditionally vote Republican have been more conservative than the party Establishment for more than 40 years.

Critter said...

‘Trump was never the cause of that election.”

When has it not been true that a politician only represents the interests of the voters that existed before a campaign begins? The writer is stretching to take a gratuitous shot at Trump. BTW, that quote applies in spades to Biden, who was only a placeholder for the various interests in the Democrat party who wanted back in power, even if it required voting procedure changes to maximize the number of votes despite a lack of sufficient voters.

His broader point about the political realignment is true and has been commented on for a number of years. I started pointing it out to friends in the 2016 campaign. As the Democrats left their blue collar historic base behind it is obvious the it would provide opportunities to the Republicans to expand its base. We’re seeing a continuation of this realignment in the shift of up to 50% of Hispanics to politicians who serve their interests in the economy, education, and community security.

David Begley said...

With the vax mandates, the Dems have completely lost the blue collar union voter Teachers will always vote Dem but that’s not enough. Unless, of course, there is massive cheating.

Michael said...

It will be interesting to see how the addition of high inflation will drive those middle class suburban voters in 2022 & 2024

Mike of Snoqualmie said...

The curators of the Lie-Stream Media insist that Republicans are using "wedge" issues to divide Americans. These same Lie-Stream Media personalities have no problem throwing out the White Supremacy charge against Republicans, especially Black Republicans who won't stay on the Democrat Plantations. Black Republicans like Winsome Sears.

The culture of America is based upon European 17th-18th Century values, specifically British values. We have absorbed other cultures, including Chinese, Japanese, Mexican, West Indian island to enrich the original culture. But saying that arriving on time, working hard, writing clearly is regarded as White Supremacist by our "betters." Those same "betters" slander us as evil for appreciating those foreign cultures and stamp and holler about "cultural appropriation" when in fact it is cultural appreciation.

Bring back Western Civics and Western Culture. Appreciate them and appreciate the richness of foreign cultures, but always remember we are Westerners not Marxists, Fascists, Communists nor Supremacists of any stripe.

gilbar said...

the ONLY reason i voted for McCain was Sarah Palin.
the ONLY reason i voted for Bush was my disgust for Clinton

Trump was surfing on the populist wave; but the sharks got him

Someday a real rain will come and wipe this scum off the streets.
Come the revolution...It won't be pretty

Big Mike said...

Salena Zito does what journalists used to do but stopped bothering with years ago — she does real research with real people where they live. After the election of 2016 David Brooks wrote that he was going to get out into the country and find out who these Trump voters were. Did he ever get west of Newark?

When journalists get their information not from real people out where they live, but from talking to other journalists and throwing out opinions over shared joints or lines of coke at parties with like-minded friends, then they’re going to get shocked. Regularly.

WWIII Joe Biden, Husk-Puppet + America's Putin said...

People are sick of the hack-D propaganda press.

Joe Smith said...

If there was a RINO Hall of Fame, McCain would be the patron saint.

What a weeny...

Mike (MJB Wolf) said...

Progressives have to personalize politics. They can’t admit Trump is the result of the way both parties have governed. He was critical of Swamp Creatures in general not just Democrats. Of course Democrats are the Globetrotters of the monoparty game and DC Republicans are the Washington Generals, so most bad ideas with “bipartisan support” are for the furtherance of the dominant party not the subservient one. Trump wouldn’t bow down to Nancy and the Turtle. He obviously took the measures of both. Who among us really thinks Nancy or Chuck or the Turtle are worthy of the high offices they hold? These are despicable petty mean people. The Swamp fears and gangs up on outsiders. Someone as energetic and competent as Trump proved their lies hollow: unemployment and oil dependence were easily improved. And Joe is still proving how quick it all goes to hell when that is the Swamp’s goal.

Drago said...

Salena Zito nicely sums up what has been clear to those who have been paying even the slightest bit of attention over these last 2 decades.

And the truth of what Zito has been saying is demonstrated by how viciously she has been attacked by the legacy media/NeverTrump automatons over the last several years for the "sin" of understanding what reality looks like on the ground across the nation.

doctrev said...

If the reasonable moderates were a major part of the electorate, they wouldn't have needed to steal the election. For that matter, Terry McAuliffe was obviously crazy, but also obviously a centrist. It's not impossible that MAGA turned out, thanks to President Trump, and the tankies stayed home.

Played out across the nation, that only stands to enhance Donald Trump's dominant coalition. And it's why nominating a Romney-friendly candidate would make Michigan and Pennsylvania much tougher than they had to be, all in the vain hope of maybe getting re-elected in Virginia.

Amexpat said...

These voters either stayed home or voted against their interests for Barack Obama because of his candidacy's historic and aspirational nature

There was a whiff of the anti-establishment in Obama's 2008 campaign. His candidacy started out as a long shot run against the Clinton machine and it appeared to challenge the established order.

I remember thinking that the first thing he should do when he was elected was to pick a fight against Congress on a populist issue in order to mark that he was interested in change. Instead he made major appointments from the limited circle of senators he knew and Clinton veterans and it was business as usual.

He didn't really understand his mandate. He was derisive of the Tea Party and didn't understand that they were part of the anti-establishment wave that got him elected. Unlike Bill Clinton, he had no inner Bubba to understand and connect to them.

Drago said...

Big Mike: "Salena Zito does what journalists used to do but stopped bothering with years ago — she does real research with real people where they live. After the election of 2016 David Brooks wrote that he was going to get out into the country and find out who these Trump voters were. Did he ever get west of Newark?"

LOL

David Brooks never got west of 11th Avenue, or, as David Brooks might call it, "the wilderness".

tim maguire said...

Blogger Temujin said... Lefties claim that people like me live in a bubble. I insist that they live in a bubble.

Because the left controls the media, it is nearly impossible for a right-wing person to live in a bubble that is anywhere near the airtight seal that left-wingers have to actively work to avoid living in. That they think you live in a bubble is just an artifact of how ensconced they are in their own bubble. Like a fish not knowing they are wet.

narciso said...

his job was to destroy the country, sadly he succeeded too well, and shambling man is tearing down what's left,

doctrev said...

Plus, there is substantial evidence that Obama is an affirmative-action empty suit who couldn't float a life jacket, while Donald Trump has considerably more sway with the MAGA base. Simply put, GOP candidates without the Don's blessing are never going to prosper- they may as well go home now. By contrast, not even Obama, the alphabet networks, the CIA, and Katy Perry handing out post-voting hummers were sufficient to get slimy cretins like Terry McAuliffe over the line, and Murphy in NEW JERSEY only won after "discovered" ballots (vote fraud)!

Drago said...

tim maguire: "Because the left controls the media, it is nearly impossible for a right-wing person to live in a bubble that is anywhere near the airtight seal that left-wingers have to actively work to avoid living in. That they think you live in a bubble is just an artifact of how ensconced they are in their own bubble. Like a fish not knowing they are wet."

There are still large numbers of lefties/NeverTrump-lefties who STILL believe that the hoax Clinton/Steele "dossier" was completely/mostly "verified" (literally) and that Mueller "proved" Trump/Russia coordination/collusion which stole the election from Hillary.

Some of those idiots post at Althouse quite frequently.

Yancey Ward said...

I like Zito, but she minimizes Trump's actual accomplishment in winning in 2016, and she misses it because she is forgetting Trump's path. He beat the GOP elite before beating Shelob. Whoever follows Trump's path in 2024 (if that isn't Trump himself) will have to replicate that beating of the GOP elite in the primaries. Right now, I think the GOP is trying to groom Mike Pence for that role of GOP elite candidate- I am starting to see all kinds of complimentary stories in the mainstream media about Pence or something he has said in recent weeks on various topics, so I think Pence is the guy the DC Republicans want as the candidate- he is the Jeb Bush candidate for 2024.

Yancey Ward said...

And Zito's bit here:

"These voters either stayed home or voted against their interests for Barack Obama because of his candidacy's historic and aspirational nature"

Is almost looking into a mirror for myself- I voted for Obama in 2008, and a large part of that is that I didn't like McCain at all, and Palin wasn't enough to pull me along. Of course, a good part of my vote was also the fact that by election day, it was obvious McCain was going to lose in a landslide, so I decided to at least vote for the first half-black president as a token.

Michael K said...

I can't add anything to the comments above. For a brief moment Peggy Noonan seemed to get it but that moment passed. I hope the 2022 election can get us back on a sane path but I am not optimistic.

Drago said...

Yancey Ward: "I like Zito, but she minimizes Trump's actual accomplishment in winning in 2016, and she misses it because she is forgetting Trump's path. He beat the GOP elite before beating Shelob. Whoever follows Trump's path in 2024 (if that isn't Trump himself) will have to replicate that beating of the GOP elite in the primaries"

It is no longer a "mountain to climb" to defeat the GOP Establishment-Dem wing of the party in the primary of a candidate is of the populist/culture warrior bent.

More of a rugged little hill with a couple of tricky paths to negotiate.

doctrev said...

Yancey Ward said...
I like Zito, but she minimizes Trump's actual accomplishment in winning in 2016, and she misses it because she is forgetting Trump's path. He beat the GOP elite before beating Shelob. Whoever follows Trump's path in 2024 (if that isn't Trump himself) will have to replicate that beating of the GOP elite in the primaries. Right now, I think the GOP is trying to groom Mike Pence for that role of GOP elite candidate- I am starting to see all kinds of complimentary stories in the mainstream media about Pence or something he has said in recent weeks on various topics, so I think Pence is the guy the DC Republicans want as the candidate- he is the Jeb Bush candidate for 2024.

11/7/21, 10:42 AM'

I suspect Ron DeSantis for this role, but then again Trump might anoint him as the one to win. It doesn't matter- the idea Pence could replace Trump is completely laughable, and DeSantis doing so is merely doubtful. Backing from PowerLine and National Review can't erase the fact that Donald Trump defeated a whole crowd of accomplished governors with far less of an executive record backing him. No one with a viable national career will challenge him- that includes Mike Pence.

Greg The Class Traitor said...

Will the curators continue to underestimate and insult the electorate? Look to 2022, an inside-out midterm election. It will not be about Trump — oh, how the Democrats misunderstood that on Tuesday. It will not be about spending more money and passing bills people never requested. It will be about their lives, their children, their communities, and their future.

Just ask the voters and listen to their answers.


They can't do that. Because teh whole point of their pursuit of power is to be able to bully the rest of us.

No one actually wants their wedding photographed by someone who doesn't want to be there. Same for flowers, cakes, catering, websites, etc.

The fight isn't about "getting the best wedding", the fight is abotu using political power to bully the people who disagree with you, and to force them to be silent.

That's how people on the Left get their rocks off.

Listen to the voters, and give them what they want? Not going to happen

Greg The Class Traitor said...

Yancey Ward said...
I like Zito, but she minimizes Trump's actual accomplishment in winning in 2016, and she misses it because she is forgetting Trump's path. He beat the GOP elite before beating Shelob

The reason why Trump was able to "beat teh GOP elite" was because Cruz was #2. So the GOP "elite" decide "I'd rather lose with Trump, than win with Cruz."

Trump won the primary because Rubio stayed in to split the anti-Trump vote well after it was clear he wasn't going to win. He did taht to make sure that Cruz didn't win.

Because of course Trump would lose, and thus not be able to put his stamp on the Party they way Cruz would after he beat Clinton.

Now, I don't know that Cruz would have won against Clinton. I didn't see Trump's victory coming, at all. But I was well aware of what the GOP Establishment was thinking and doing in 2016, and their main goal was to stop Cruz, not Trump.

So they got what they wanted, good and hard.

Greg The Class Traitor said...

Yancey Ward said...
Whoever follows Trump's path in 2024 (if that isn't Trump himself) will have to replicate that beating of the GOP elite in the primaries.

Biden became the Democrat nominee because:
1: There was no one competent out there to oppose him
2: Black Democrat voters in South Carolina did what they were told

On the GOP side:
1: Both Trump and DeSantis are capable of running a good primary campaign. Pence has never accomplished anything outside of Indiana, a mostly GOP State. He's given no indication that he can actually connect with national GOP voters
2: There's no early GOP primary State where the voters will fall in line the way they did in SC for Biden.

Cruz (who the GOP Establishment still loathes), DeSantis, or Trump will be the GOP nominee in 2024. There's not enough "oxygen" left for anyone else to earn their way to being a competitor, and there's not enough money in the world for a GOP Establishment candidate to buy his way to the top

Ralph L said...

If anyone once believed McCain or Romney was a nice guy, Trump proved him wrong. He revealed so many frauds and cranks.

Drago said...

Michael K: "For a brief moment Peggy Noonan seemed to get it but that moment passed."

Correct. That lasted about 4 weeks until she reverted to NeverTrump/Conventional "Wisdom"/"received "truth"' mode under pressure from her liberal NYC amigas.

Lurker21 said...

McCain didn't have much to do with it. Nixon and Reagan both had their own versions of a conservative-populist alliance, and plenty of Reagan voters defected to Perot or Clinton in 1992. McCain (and Romney) don't seem that significant in retrospect. Republicans still voted for them. Independents and swing voters defected or stayed home. It's hard to understand now why they ran (apart from vanity), how they expected to win, or what they would have done with the victory.

What did happen in 2008 is that Republicans got very sick of the Bushes. The wars, the dreams of democratizing the Middle East, the economic slump, the lack of concern about illegal immigration or Chinese imports, the growing deficit. Bushism went out of favor and with it so did the conservative movement. I mean the seminar and cruise types, the bowtie boys, the neocons, the enthusiasts for a borderless world. Voters don't trust movement conservatism anymore.

People who love Trump praise him for being more conservative than other Republican presidents and candidates. Those who hate him attack him for being more right-wing and extreme than his opponents. I think there's something to be said for Trump as a moderate. He didn't try to remake the world. He didn't get us into any more foreign crusades. He wasn't gushing and drooling about a borderless world and unrestricted flow of people, capital and goods. He was for law and order, but reformed sentencing guidelines. He was a businessman who believed in competition, but couldn't be accused of being a heartless, uncaring "Social Darwinist." Instead of complaining about welfare loafers, he created jobs. He cut regulations but wasn't claiming he could slash programs or abolish agencies. The deficit and the debt grew under his administration (not a good thing), but he didn't promise to fix that. He ridiculed the media, but didn't try to suppress it.

Trump did direct much (well-deserved) scorn at the media and the Democrats, but I didn't hear him attacking large segments of the population. If you loved Pelosi or the Times or CNN so much that you couldn't stand hearing someone speak ill of them, that was your problem. Other politicians in both parties use cultural issues and culture wars and internal hatreds in order to distract from economic problems that they can't or won't fix. Trump's talk about the media took the focus off those cultural issues and internal divisions (a good thing, I think), but he was still able to have respectable successes dealing with economic issues (before the pandemic).

doctrev said...

Greg The Class Traitor said...
Because of course Trump would lose, and thus not be able to put his stamp on the Party they way Cruz would after he beat Clinton.

Now, I don't know that Cruz would have won against Clinton. I didn't see Trump's victory coming, at all. But I was well aware of what the GOP Establishment was thinking and doing in 2016, and their main goal was to stop Cruz, not Trump.

11/7/21, 12:45 PM

Ted Cruz isn't even the dominant force in Texas, so I doubt he could permanently rebrand the party any more than Reagan did. At least, considering how completely the Bush family subverted him. And the "Against Trump" issue of National Review came out before the primaries even got going. Cruz himself was very grudging in support of Trump at the convention, even more so than Ryan and McConnell, but that's not the same thing as meaningful establishment support.

It is of no importance: Ted Cruz is very unlikely to ever be President, and National Review is intensely hostile to both Cruz and Trump alike. That's good enough for the future, even if elections don't really matter anymore.

Gahrie said...

I suspect Ron DeSantis for this role, but then again Trump might anoint him as the one to win.

I was about to type: "My dream at this point is that Trump endorses James Woods." and then I realized that Woods is 74. Shit.

Rogan? I'd prefer Mike Rowe.

Michelle Dulak Thomson said...

May I just comment that I heartily approve Yancey Ward's use of "Shelob"? I haven't actually heard anyone do that before.

Big Mike said...

Cruz (who the GOP Establishment still loathes), DeSantis, or Trump will be the GOP nominee in 2024.

Let's not forget about Rand Paul. He has two things going for him: the degree of hate that the Democrats have for him (he was on that baseball field when Bernie Bro James Hodgkinson, as well as being attacked by a neighbor and menaced by a lefty mob), and the fact that he stood up to Fauci. Can he turn that into primary wins? Maybe.

Big Mike said...

I didn't see Trump's victory coming, at all.

You overlooked the "I would crawl five miles over broken glass with broken kneecaps to vote against Hillary" voters.

Robert Cook said...

"You overlooked the 'I would crawl five miles over broken glass with broken kneecaps to vote against Hillary' voters."

Well...I voted against Hillary, as well, but I sure as fuck didn't vote for Donald Trump. If I'm going to refuse to vote for an intolerable asshole put forth by one major party, why would I vote for an equally intolerable asshole from the other major party?

Greg The Class Traitor said...

Robert Cook said...
"You overlooked the 'I would crawl five miles over broken glass with broken kneecaps to vote against Hillary' voters."

Well...I voted against Hillary, as well, but I sure as fuck didn't vote for Donald Trump. If I'm going to refuse to vote for an intolerable asshole put forth by one major party, why would I vote for an equally intolerable asshole from the other major party?


1: I didn't vote for either Trump or Hillary in 2016. So I didn't vote "against" Hillary any more than you did. Because the only options with an actual chance to win were Trump and Hillary

2: Trump made America a better place, which is why I voted for him in 2020. If you still found Trump an "intolerable asshole" by 2020, it's because you didn't give a sh!t about any American citizens who don't have college "degrees".

Which, to my mind, is a very shameful thing on your part

Greg The Class Traitor said...

doctrev said...
Ted Cruz isn't even the dominant force in Texas, so I doubt he could permanently rebrand the party any more than Reagan did. At least, considering how completely the Bush family subverted him.

Ted Cruz had a large pool of farming at the mouth right-wingers (like me) eager to work for his general election campaign, then get into the Party / government and rip things up.

Trump didn't. Which is why he was constantly being subverted by the people he appointed.

And the "Against Trump" issue of National Review came out before the primaries even got going.

Yep, but post Iowa caucuses, and definite post NH Primary, I started seeing a lot of articles where "senior Republican officials" were being quoted as saying "I'd rather lose with Trump than win with Cruz". With he President's ability to take over the Party apparatus as the reason why.

Since the GOP Establishment then spent the next several months working harder to block Cruz than Trump, the quotes appeared accurate at the time, and I've never seen anything since then to refute them.

Cruz himself was very grudging in support of Trump at the convention, even more so than Ryan and McConnell, but that's not the same thing as meaningful establishment support.

And rightfully so. But Cruz did back Trump to win the general before the election.

Robert Cook said...

"2: Trump made America a better place, which is why I voted for him in 2020. If you still found Trump an 'intolerable asshole' by 2020, it's because you didn't give a sh!t about any American citizens who don't have college 'degrees.'"

"Which, to my mind, is a very shameful thing on your part."


I utterly disagree with your statement that "Trump made America a better place," and with your implied belief that Trump truly cares for or about anyone other than himself. And, in fact, I came to see Trump as an even bigger and more intolerable asshole than I had prior to his election.

Greg The Class Traitor said...

Robert Cook said...
I utterly disagree with your statement that "Trump made America a better place,"

Fine, Trump made America a better place for Americans, especially those who are not in the top 20% income bracket, and even more so for those not in the top 50%.

Because unlike Obama, Biden, Bush (either) and Clinton, Trump pushed policies that made it easier for Americans to get jobs, and more likely that competent work would get them raises.

It's rather sad and disgusting that you don't care about the Americans Trump's policies helped.

and with your implied belief that Trump truly cares for or about anyone other than himself.
Bzzt, thank you for playing, have some Rice-a-roni

I have no idea whether or not Trump cares about anyone other than himself. I really couldn't care less either way.

Because I don't give a sh!t about your inner monologue, I mainly care about your outward results.

Trump's results were greatly increased employment for Americans, with better wages, and better lives.

Which meant the rich didn't have as many illegal alien nannies, gardeners, and bus boys to keep their costs down. Oh boo hoo!

And, in fact, I came to see Trump as an even bigger and more intolerable asshole than I had prior to his election.

That's because you hate the truth? Or because you hate Americans w/o college degrees?