"The probability that such a shift may occur during this particular Congress may well be even higher than that. At the moment, no fewer than six Democratic senators over the age of 70 represent states where a Republican governor would be free to replace them with a Republican, should a vacancy occur. Five other Democratic senators represent states for which a vacancy would go unfilled for months, until a special election to fill the seat was held — which would hand the G.O.P. control of the Senate at least until that election and likely for the rest of the current Congress if a Republican wins that contest. (In the case of Wisconsin, such a vacancy might not be filled until 2023.) All things considered, the odds that Democrats will lose control of the Senate in the next 22 months are probably close to a coin flip."
From "Justice Breyer Should Retire Right Now/If he doesn’t, Democrats run the very real risk that they would be unable to replace him" by lawprof Paul Campos (NYT).
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59 comments:
What is Campos worried bout? If HR 1 passes there will never be a R administration and Congress again.
Why don't they forcibly retire him since politics trumps all.
But don't the Democrats have a MANDATE that justifies all the bullshit they're laying on us?
Unless, of course, it was all a lie and this election was unforgivably stolen by wretched goons working for a pedo cabal.
Losing control of the Supreme Court nominating process was a catastrophe.
alfromchgo said...What is Campos worried bout? If HR 1 passes there will never be a R administration and Congress again
Exactly. The Californication of national politics will be complete and there will be no effective opposition party. Competition will be at the primary level only.
What sort of law professor expertise qualified him to write this evergreen political opinion? Isn't this same opinion written every time a Democrat is in office?
Let me note that Biden “picking” Merrick Garland for his AG (and his confirmation hearing) gives the lie to the claim that he was a moderate, when Obama nominated him for the Supreme Court. The Republican Senate was right to reject his nomination.
According to news reports earlier this month all nine justices have received their COVID-19 vaccinations. And none of them croaked.
Yet.
Campos is of the left, otherwise he'd be accused of giving "insurrectionists" ideas.
What's with this "over 70" nonsense. I thought 80 was the new 50. Just look at Pelosi and Hoyer and Di Fi. As someone who'll be 78 come November, I have to ask who this young punk is!
Seriously I can't get too excited about the possibility of someone in their 70s keeling over. Now in their 80s maybe. But longevity and or life spans are an individual thing. Consider the vigor of the dreaded Orange Man and the wan fragility of our current Commander in Chief. Both are in their 70s--and they are quite different from a physical and mental point of view.
This is interesting because Campos is known to be highly partisan. More so than even most law professors.
"(In the case of Wisconsin, such a vacancy might not be filled until 2023.)"
Unlikely since Baldwin is only 59. Unless she eats a bad clam.
They urged RBG to retire, too.
Blogger Bruce Hayden said...
This is interesting because Campos is known to be highly partisan. More so than even most law professors.
Yes, he was the subject of a big flap a few years ago.
An example of his wild partisanship.
More of his partisanship.
The democrat cheering squad masquerading as a journalist.
Fingers crossed.
Talking about future elections. It’s cute.
Inside fantasy baseball.
I hear the Democrats might not be able to pass any more legislation... since they have just a very thin hold on Congress, and midterms are coming, they are scared... they are afraid they will screw the pooch and a huge flip of congress will come in 2022.
And considering Biden's new 'tax the rich' proposal (which he means to tax everyone), the anti-gun gun bill, the ballot box stuffing bill, etc...
They see a very rocky road coming.. and it takes just 6-7 Democrats in the house to fold and ... nothing passes.
We will see!!! I bet a lot of Trump haters and fence sitters who didn't vote, or voted for Biden, now wish they had picked Trump.
An awful lot is dependent on the 2022 election. Whether we have a country, for example.
It's Democrats' job to ensure majority is on hand when a justice retires, not a justice's job to retire when Dems have majority. Lazy folks with excuses.
Gee, Prof Campos, are you saying that for the Left the Supreme Court is only about partisan politics, and not about following the US Constitution?
Say it's not so!
https://justthenews.com/government/security/retired-army-sgt-arrested-fbi-home-searched-charged-conspiracy-connection-dc
There was a cult of RBG
How wise and spry was she
She died like a ferret
We got Amy Barret
That’s how it’s done you see
There was an old lady named Ruth
Who got too long in the tooth
None could convince her
Ignored all the hints were
But time was up was the truth
Losing control of the Supreme Court nominating process was a catastrophe.
Yeah, Crack, it was. But that happened over two centuries ago. Since then, the vast majority of justices have been mediocrities, including those who have served over the last 50 years, with a very few exceptions.
The last decent Democrat-nominated justice was Byron White.
Trivia question:
Who succeeded Whizzer White?
The Money Honey is back co-hosting Martha's time slot.
what's a 'money honey' and what is a "martha's time slot"?
When politics trumps logic, you become a law professor
what's a 'money honey' and what is a "martha's time slot"?
OK. So you play for the other team. "Not that there's anything wrong with that."
These people are pathetic. The entire focus of their lives appears to be on politics and political considerations. I'd say 'Sad' but this is all self-inflicted. What a terrible life they live if thinking about this stuff takes up most of it.
The composition of the USSC has been a Republican obsession since Earl Warren. It has been R controlled by appointees of Republican presidents for over 50 years straight.
That said this is a very dumb article. Give the info to a Breyer intimate if you must, but this article must have been the brainchild of FedSoc.
Mark said...
Trivia question:
Who succeeded Whizzer White?
i had to cheat, and look it up (after i made a WAG)... Have to say, the answer made me realize i have NOT been paying attention (or, much more correctly: WAS NOT paying attention)
"The composition of the USSC has been a Republican obsession since Earl Warren. It has been R controlled by appointees of Republican presidents for over 50 years straight."
True, it is an obsession. Now do Democrats.
It's interesting to see that sort of handwringing from Campos, especially given that the GOP is facing a challenging map in the 2022 Senate races.
Twenty seats held by the GOP will be at stake in 2022, versus fourteen seats held by Democrats. So far, no Democrats have announced plans to retire, while at least five GOP senators will be retiring.
Biff, of course, is correct. The Democrats will pick up, at a bare minimum, two seats (PA and WI), and likely four or more.
Blogger Readering said...
The composition of the USSC has been a Republican obsession since Earl Warren. It has been R controlled by appointees of Republican presidents for over 50 years straight.
Yes, if only LBJ had been able to get his fixer, Abe Fortas, as Chief Justice. Abe got Justice Hugo Black (KKK) to throw out the appeals by Coke Stevenson and the fix was in.
Imagine being a Supreme Court Justice who neither cared to retire early for partisan political reasons nor to cling to the job long after you were to old or sick to do it well, for partisan political reasons. Quaint, huh?
They've got a President who thinks he's a box of Wheaties, and they're worried about moving out a Supreme Court Justice who can still think, for political expedience?
Nice people, Democrats. Glad they're running our country. Into the ground.
If God has a sense of humor no justice will retire or croak before Trump gets re-elected.
cubanbob said...
If God has a sense of humor no justice will retire or croak before Trump gets re-elected.
Breyer will retire in 2022, the GOP will win back the Senate, and the Wise Latina will keel over from an OD of Little Debbies in the summer of 2024.
Something tells me that Breyer is going to resent being asked to leave. Either way if it is about shoring up the "Left" they would be best served if they could convince Sotomayor to seek an early retirement. She is fairly young, but she seems like the weakest link. How you vote matters but the rationale for a decision also matters.
alfromchgo @ 3:53: Word. After HR1, no more worries for the Dems. No need to vote, ever again!
Readering,
[T]this is a very dumb article. Give the info to a Breyer intimate if you must, but this article must have been the brainchild of FedSoc.
You think Paul Campos is ghosting for the Federalist Society? I mean, quite apart from the FedSoc not being at all the bogey you imply (people do get nutty about it, to the point where you start to wonder whether it's reserved to those who like to wear their white robes under their black ones -- NB am not implying that you yourself reason like this), he's the last man in the world to put himself to such use.
He's just making the usual argument. Usual to both sides, but obviously more common on the Left, insofar as, as you point out, Republicans have gotten the bulk of the nominations. But, as you also say, Earl Warren, a Republican nominee and subsequent CJ, and author or co-begetter of everything conservatives hate about the modern SCOTUS, began the whole mess. Campos is more virulent about it than most, that's all. But I must say it sucks to see a perfectly decent legal reasoner arguing straight-out that a Justice should resign -- will no longer be needed, thank you very much, sorry -- b/c otherwise his successor might have trouble getting confirmed.
Because that's all it would be, a confirmation battle. It has been a very, very long time since either party has actually lost one of those. But the Justice confirmed might not be the far-Lefty that Campos would prefer, so a perfectly sensible, perfectly acute Justice's career must be stuffed down the toilet so that Campos may have his choice. That sucks. Whoever writes it.
C,mon, man. Here's the deal.
Next SCJ will be appointed by first African American Woman President.
Breyer following RBG playbook, with better odds.
I wonder what Manchin's position on a nominee would be. He voted for Kavanaugh but voted against Barret. His reasoning for voting against Barret was more to do with the Senate procedure used to get her nomination through rather than her judicial philosophy. I wonder if he would be a moderating force on who the Democrats could get through if there was a vacancy.
What makes anyone think the republicans will be allowed to win any more elections?
I'm just saying, no way Breyer turns around and announces his retirement shortly because he reads with the rest of us that data shows that a Democratic Senator might leave from a state where a Democratic Governor won't instantly fill the vacancy, and then Breyer himself might have to leave the Court. Pure vanity piece, if not an outright right-wing plant. Maybe he needs to wait for the reverse, with a Republican Senator, to give Biden a greater margin. Hey, I sense an article there.
Maybe Guam invading the House office building will help.
The military has enlisted in the DNC.
Readering,
So you're saying that Breyer won't do this because a Left-wing legal scholar has said what everyone already knows? I don't understand you. "Pure vanity piece, if not an outright right-wing plant"? Again, Campos would not make himself a "right-wing plant." Not even if you gave him his own private Caribbean island. "Vanity piece" makes little more sense. Campos can already write for the Times whenever he wants (OK, maybe not literally; La Greenhouse might get miffed).
You seem to be arguing that, now that this has been said -- in the pages of the sainted NYT, no less! -- Breyer will not feel free actually to act on it. You are, I'm afraid, crediting most American pols with far more subtlety than they actually have.
I suspect Breyer of possessing his own mind, which is to say that he will not care what's in Campos's Op-Ed, even if he does read it.
Breyer seems very vital for his age
https://youtu.be/dqGDBQPy1wo?t=232
I don't see him stepping down any time soon
Mr Breyer should retire right now because he lacks the wisdom and talent needed for the job he has; however, his replacement will probably be worse than he has been, if he retires now. The poor man is wasting what should be the golden years of reflection and appreciation - those last few wonderful years of life that elderly gents and ladies sometimes are gifted with, that decade or two (if one is lucky) when one is old, but an old person who has not yet experienced dementia or worse - the poor old fool is spending those years of life doing what? inserting his foolish views of the law into one tome after another of soon to be forgotten "Supreme Court decisions" ---- and for what? years from now, all the quibbles with which he quibbles in his incompetent way will be without meaning to anyone, except to the historians of the future, and even they won't care much.
So I say, with the best of intentions, to old Steven - RETIRE NOW. THAT IS WHAT YOU SHOULD DO.
On the other hand, guys like Breyer (think Castro or poor Bergoglio or Brezhnev) can go on an awful long time as sad old men clinging to power ---- and it would be sweet to see Breyer hold on for a couple more years and then be replaced by a younger Amy Barrett, the way poor Mrs Ginsburg was, in a judicious plot twist, fittingly replaced after holding on too long to the sort of power old folks sometimes love too much.
“ I hear the Democrats might not be able to pass any more legislation... since they have just a very thin hold on Congress, and midterms are coming, they are scared... they are afraid they will screw the pooch and a huge flip of congress will come in 2022.
“And considering Biden's new 'tax the rich' proposal (which he means to tax everyone), the anti-gun gun bill, the ballot box stuffing bill, etc..”
I think that the Democrats know that they have one chance. They lose control when either one Dem Senator doesn’t show up to work, or the 2022 election, whichever comes first. They are guaranteeing it by crashing the economy with their rape of it with their 1.9 Trillion COVID-19 “relief” bill, plus planned tax increases, plus additional even larger “infrastructure” rape of the economy, losing our energy independence, shifting to more expensive less reliable “renewable” energy, both based on junk science, plus their attempt to make the most popular rifles and carbines in the country illegal, etc. Heck, the Biden EPA is even trying to institute a national masking requirement, supported by theories that do not even rise to the level of junk science.
Keynesian stimulus is counterproductive economically, and esp when so much of it is going into the pockets of Dem politicians, their families, and their cronies. $1.9 trillion would be bad for the economy. More than doubling it would be horrific. Trump’s tax cuts were one of the reasons that he was able to get to below 4% unemployment before COVID-19 hit. So, of course, the Dems are going to repeal them, trading raising corporate rates for a reinstatement of the unlimited SALT deduction, which mostly just benefits their richest patrons. The rest of the country is going to be paying higher taxes on less income. We likely would be in a recession by the 2022 elections, regardless, but they are guaranteeing that the recession is going to be deeper and longer than necessary. With probably $4 Trillion of fiscal rape of the economy planned, it’s going to be bad. I think real bad, if they get their wish list enacted.
Right now, I don’t see HR-1 being nearly enough to save their sorry asses next year in the mid-term elections. It can Constitutionally only affect Congressional elections, not Presidential elections, nor local or state level elections. Sure, it attempts to give Congress and the Dems control over decennial reapportionment, but that won’t likely go nearly as far as they would like. Gerrymandering still has to conform to decades of judicial restrictions. But worse for them, is that it doesn’t really matter over much of the country. About the best that they can expect is to slightly reduce the number of seats that they will lose next year due to the decennial reapportionment, as people flee Blue states, moving to freer Red states with more economic opportunities. Indeed, without their heavy hand on reapportionment, it is very possible that they would lose their tiny House majority even before they crash the economy, etc. Historically, the Dems tend to get slaughtered in House elections after gaining control over the Presidency and both Houses of Congress. Then, over the next 6-8 or so years, they gradually build back up their numbers until Palsi can regain her oversized gavel. And don’t forget all of the Red State Senators voting for their radical legislation, including taking Modern Sporting Rifles out of the hands of the citizenry of their states.
My prediction right now is that if the Democrats enact their radical gun grabbing legislation, we will see open carry of putatively illegal Modern Sporting Rifles, along with other firearms, at political rallies throughout Red America, and esp in Red States. These states will likely have declared themselves to be 2nd Amdt Sanctuary States, meaning in part that their LEOs won’t be participating in trying to arrest the armed rally goers, esp under Feinstein’s new improved AWB. That leaves the feds. Who then have to identify the miscreants, arrest them, and try to convict them, with gun owning juries of their peers. But before they get that far, they are going to have to overcome 2nd and now 1st Amdt attacks on the legislation.
One of the things that Trump gave us was massive peaceful conservative campaign rallies. All the Democrats can do is violent mobs of rioters. Add a bunch of very visible AR-15s to the Republican rallies, and the Democrats are going to go totally unhinged. There are tens of millions of these guns, and mere low tens of thousands of sworn federal LEOs that could arrest the owners. Plus not nearly enough jail cells to hold them, federal courts to try them, or federal prosecutors to prosecute them. After one or two of these rallies, they would likely become a thing. Like the big Trump rallies.
The thing that got me started thinking about it was our senior Senator, Jon Tester. He won last time by massively outspending his opponent, and running a lot of slick ads, paid for by out of state money, showing him driving the family combine (after winching him up there, due to his greatly expanded girth due to his time in DC). I don’t remember any rallies for him - he mostly ran his campaign from DC. And he definitely won’t have any rallies this time, remembering the few Biden rallies in Red and Purple states, where Trump supporters massively outnumbered the Biden supporters. But his opponent will, no doubt, hold rallies, and they are likely, thanks to the MAGA rallies, be large. The natural response by the MSM would be to suppress that news. But they won’t be able to keep them out of the news, if those massive rallies are armed, and esp with putatively illegal AR-15s. They won’t be able to help themselves. I also think that this would be successful against Gabby Gifford’s husband, who was just elected a Senator in AZ, through massively outspending his opponent (with out of state money - by last fall, he had the largest war chest of anyone running for Senate, almost twice as large as the runner up, then Senate Majority Leader, Mitch McConnell). It would be very hard to show that gun carrying at those rallies wasn’t politically symbolic, with all the pictures of Kelly standing next to Giffords, his wife, at gun grabbing rallies over the years.
It should be interesting.
I hear the Democrats might not be able to pass any more legislation... since they have just a very thin hold on Congress, and midterms are coming, they are scared... they are afraid they will screw the pooch and a huge flip of congress will come in 2022.
Nope. Not a chance. They'll ram through everything they can while they can. They always do.
So now Biden has to figure out whether to throw the Justice into the Breyer patch?
It could be too taxing for Old Joe.
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