March 5, 2021

"Early on, some likened the public health crisis to a blizzard, imagining that people would stay home, cozy up with their romantic partners and make babies."

"These playful visions have given way to a more sobering reality: The pandemic’s serious disruption of people’s lives is likely to cause 'missing births' — potentially a lot of them. Add these missing births to the country’s decade-long downward trend in annual births and we can expect consequential changes to our economy and society in the years to come.... Millions of parents are dealing with the stress of combining their work responsibilities with the need to supervise and teach their children who no longer attend school five days a week. This raises the 'cost' of rearing children and can be expected to lead to fewer siblings being conceived this year. Moreover, restrictions on social activities also mean some relationships that would have started in 2020 (and might have led to babies someday) never took root. We have no precedent to estimate changes in birthrates from these disruptions, but they will undoubtedly also contribute to a large reduction in overall births.... Some women and couples will have fewer children than they hoped, and some kids will grow up without the younger sibling they would have had otherwise. This could contribute to what some have referred to as America’s loneliness epidemic.... But the real societal challenge of a Covid baby bust will be a smaller work force.... In the absence of effective policies to meaningfully increase births, the most reliable and immediate way to shore up the U.S. population is through immigration, which brings its own political and social challenges...."

From "We Expect 300,000 Fewer Births Than Usual This Year/Signs are pointing to a sizable pandemic baby bust in the United States, with implications that will be with us for years to come" by economics professors Melissa S. Kearney and Phillip B. Levine (NYT).

60 comments:

I'm Not Sure said...

There are unintended consequences to government mandates? Who knew?

Nonapod said...

Not to worry, there's tens of millions of illegal immigrants from Mexico and Central America who will be pouring in over the next few years to "replace" all those pandemic non-babies.

Dave Begley said...

Yes, this was a giant mistake driven by the Fake News, Dems and Deep State.

I'd add in the giant spending that has been added to our debt. And with interest rates going up, the cost to service that debt will only get more expensive.

We should have quarantined the sick and the old people. For the rest of us, move on and live as normal.

The actual death rate was not much more than a normal flu season.

This was the biggest FUCK UP since we missed the intelligence that Japan was going to bomb Pearl Harbor.

But the Dems will never admit their mistake. And, of course, China Joe will never get any money from China.

Chris said...

Be locked in your own home! It will be fun!

Mattman26 said...

Oh goody, now we can be "less white."

Amexpat said...

On the one hand you hear about how AI is going to put a lot of people out of work causing large scale unemployment in the future. On the other about how we won't have enough workers in the future because of declining birthrates.

The only thing that is certain is that most predictions about the future are wrong.

Can Of Cheese for Hunter said...

That's OK - Biden and Kamala and their deep state puppeteers are letting in as many illegal entrants without covid screening as possible.

Gospace said...

Gee, a lowered birthrate. Who could have foreseen that? Well, aside from me, people in my Facebook groups, and just about everyone with a firm basis in reality.

And if they looked a little harder, do you know what else is down? Marriage rates, and with that, cohabitation rates. Last years graduating HS seniors- all missed their proms. Hundreds of thousands of first dates didn't happen. Long term close relationships didn't develop. Social life was completely stifles. And now that's been going on for a year. It's March. No proms going on this year. No dating. No groups of teens out bowling. No one was out cheering the school football and basketball teams. AN entire year of life- wasted- to stop a virus that cannot be stopped=- because it's a damn virus, and viruses are going to do what viruses are going to do. Figure for the entire age group from 15-25, their social life has been completely and totally disrupted. That disruption will have long term effects.

For the younger groups? Even worse. Depending on their parents, they've either adopted a worldview of "OMG, the world is a frightening place! We all need to cower when ordered! And those anti-maskers are dangerous lunatics!" Or, the adults in their life are like me and my kids, and they've been listening to "You've got tp wear the mask because of the damn Karens and the Communists in government. We can't celebrate your birthday because of them. And those people forcing us to wear mask are power hungry politicians and dangerous fools!"

You think the political divide is bad now? Wait 12 years...

Joe Smith said...

It's not too late to fix it...

Maybe each vaccination should include a goody-bag full of sexy lotions and oils, and a Barry White CD : )

gilbar said...

as i said yesterday; IF women aren't going into work...
HOW are they going to get pregnant? Who's going to Get them pregnant?
Their Husbands? Now who's being naive ?

DanTheMan said...

>>The only thing that is certain is that most predictions about the future are wrong.

Including that one? :)

Anita said...

My sister is a labor and delivery nurse, and she commented the other day that they had 38 births over 3 days at the hospital, about double their usual rate.

I wonder where the economists are looking for their signs.

Yancey Ward said...

Fertility Passports are the answer!

Yancey Ward said...

The look at numbers of issued birth certificates, Anita. All of this data is public. While I hold economists in some contempt, they aren't that stupid.

narciso said...

remember we are the contagion, human contact is, (see david cullens broadcasts from the emerald isle,)joy is (see dr. seuss) except those approved methods like burning a police car, (see the molotov bearing attys) hence throwing out the constitution, whole sale,

Nonapod said...

As Gospace says, there will almost certainly be long term effects from this that are hard to see now. Basically an entire generation has been changed fairly significantly.

There's always big events that shape generations. These can be singular events (like 911, the fall of the Berlin wall, the Moon landing, the assassination of JFK) or events that slowly happen over much longer periods of time, like wars and pandemics. But either way it's practically impossible to guess what the long term effects of an event will be on the younger generation while in the midst of one. And not everyone of those effects may necessarilly be bad, but it's difficult to see how the lockdown culture of the Covid-19 era will translate to anything postive at this point.

I'm Not Sure said...

"but it's difficult to see how the lockdown culture of the Covid-19 era will translate to anything postive at this point."

Unless you're a twisted, sick fuck like so many power-mad politicians. Then it's all good.

Joe Smith said...

"as i said yesterday; IF women aren't going into work...
HOW are they going to get pregnant? Who's going to Get them pregnant?
Their Husbands? Now who's being naive ?"


And Andrew Cuomo sure as hell isn't going to do it now that everybody's on to him.

Just think about all the bosses who aren't screwing their secretaries during those 3-hour 'lunches.'

Or all the rock stars who are reduced to having pathetic foursomes instead of the obligatory orgies.

The world is a mess...balance must be restored.

I'm Full of Soup said...

Our leaders really have an inability to look ahead. Now, the big push is to get teachers vaccinated so schools can open - when in April or May? What's the point of that? Open them now or just scrap the school year. Fuck the teachers and their unions. I say that as a former member of Teamsters Local 628 when I was in college and for a few years afterward.

Big Mike said...

And if they looked a little harder, do yo And if they looked a little harder, do you know what else is down? Marriage rates u know what else is down? Marriage rates

My younger son got married during the pandemic. The lovely old stone church was mostly empty, but filled to the absolute limit of COVID rules in their state. Bride and groom and guests wore masks, but the couple were allowed to unmask briefly for the kiss. Only one attendant allowed apiece. Ceremony was supposed to be live-streamed but network connection was lost. No reception due to the COVID rules, so no DJ, no dances, no celebration. No honeymoon trip. But two people in love pushing through, regardless. However both son and daughter-in-law know couples their age cohort who are holding off because they want a wedding with friends and family, a reception, and a real honeymoon.

Rosalyn C. said...

I don't automatically trust everything I read from experts especially when the information appears to be timed coincidentally to some political agenda, in this case the massive influx of immigration.

(Think about all the experts who predicted that the world will end if we in the US aren't carbon neutral in twelve years, and yet they have no problem with China waiting until 2060 to cut back on their carbon emissions. And how long it took before any authorities mentioned that China is the world's biggest polluter?)

When I think about the effects of Covid I do think about all the people who were told to stay within their family unit and who didn't go out and meet new people, and all the people who didn't travel which is another great way to meet new people. It's almost like what happened during WWII which then resulted in the Baby Boomers once things got back to normal. I'm not really too worried that we are going to run out of people.

Hey Skipper said...

If there was ever a case when "Keep Calm and Carry On" would have been the perfect government policy, Winnie Xi Flu is it.

NB: the Fainting Nellies that did exactly the opposite are *all* Dems.


Fun fact. Today I read that the Soopersreader Event that was the post Superbowl parties in Tampa yielded 57 cases attributable to it. Or, given the number in attendance, 1 in 4200.

In Idaho, a week after the Superbowl (giving time for incubation), the statewide infection rate was ... wait for it ... 1 in 4217.

Maskers, over to you.

rhhardin said...

I've predicted that abortion will be made illegal for population growth reasons eventually. Think of it as drafting women, doing their part for the country.

Every non-third world country has the problem.

stlcdr said...

Captain oblivious becomes captain obvious. Welcome to what normal people knew 9 months ago.

Mike said...

"We have no precedent to estimate changes in birthrates from these disruptions..."

Not even WWI Britain and the huge loss of young men?

wildswan said...

"Anita said...
My sister is a labor and delivery nurse, and she commented the other day that they had 38 births over 3 days at the hospital, about double their usual rate."

I wonder whether Anita lives in a relatively relaxed red state or in a rural part of a blue state. In the overall birth crash there are pockets of fertility right now. Most areas dominated by a traditional religion are holding their own on births. But such areas are shrinking. And areas such as Russia and China now dominated or formerly dominated socialism birth-crashed years ago but it takes awhile for the consequences to work through society. For it to become apparent that there are fewer twenty-year-olds, takes twenty years. The loss of girl babies in China is only now becoming consequential with 70 million men unable to marry.
The united States population is not shrinking but growing due to growth in the Hispanic population - and the Asian (Asians are the largest minority group in Madison, Wisconsin.) In absolute terms and as a share of population, the white, black and First Nation populations are shrinking. But these racial demographics hide as much as they reveal. Hispanics are of a European Christian background. They share and do not share in black and First Nation culture. In Cuba AOC would be of the Spanish oppressor culture in relation to the Taino and the descendants of kidnapped Africans. Here she can pretend to have been oppressed. But she wants the schools closed in NYC and she is of Cuomo's party, The Granny-Killers.
Where's it going?
"Everyone is going through changes
No one knows what's going on."
I'd know better if I knew whether birth rates in black communities have fallen disastrously in Dem big cities. But I've been looking for awhile and can't find that information. So many live there that, if rates fall disastrously there, the black community will die as a significant force in this country over the next twenty years.

Readering said...

The paper underlying the reporting was published last May, based on looking at historical precedents.

n.n said...

Abstention? The first choice.

n.n said...

NYT pleads the 5th. Can they abort the baby... Fetal-American, cannibalize her profitable parts, sequester her carbon pollutants, and have her, too?

I'm Full of Soup said...

Readering:

If the paper was published in May, how could it possibly have foreseen the effects of the pandemic?

Browndog said...

Not possible to talk about this subject without talking about the plummeting sperm counts in western societies, is it?

Geoff M said...

If you are worried about ecological matters, this should be good.
But let's ruin that by allowing anyone into the country.

Howard said...

I started pond swimming during covid-19 and met a dozen new friends. We still get together and exercise 5 to 7 days per week.

I guess me and my friends didn't get the pity party memo.

Dust Bunny Queen said...

There is a HUGE difference between being locked down for several days by a blizzard, natural occurrence, which will be over at some point.....versus......an unending never let up of Government lock down that has lasted for year and is seemingly going to go for another year.

You can survive and even enjoy a small forced 'staycation' from life knowing that it will be over. It can be a cozy change for a short period

Being forced by the government to lose your job, your business and to be permanently locked away from everyone and everything forever is NOT FUN and not a staycation.

People are losing not only their income, security, their minds/mental health...they are losing their patience.

You can get angry at the weather, but you can't do anything about it. It is a dangerous thing when you get angry at the Government for inflicting this pain on you. You can do something about that. Ugly things are about to happen if the Government doesn't get off of our backs and doesn't take the boot stomping out of our faces.

Browndog said...

Robby Starbuck
@robbystarbuck

There’s a not insignificant number of people now whose worst fears include breathing, sunlight, handshakes, air, kisses and hugs. If I’m crazy for thinking that’s crazy then so be it. I’m crazy.

JaimeRoberto said...

There's going to be a lot of promiscuous sex when things open up, so to speak, so maybe this baby bust will be followed by a boom.

Yancey Ward said...

The dependency ratio, the number of people your work supports, family members and complete strangers, is fairly stable over long periods of time. The problem with the 1st world is that children have to be sacrificed to support the strangers on what is basically the dole- this dole is all social welfare programs. I imagine the pandemic has probably significantly shifted this balance towards paying even more for the social welfare net. I don't see this balance going the other way for at least the next several generations.

What will the US look like in 75 years? Probably a lot like Mexico looks today. Europe will look a lot like Turkey or Egypt.

Yancey Ward said...

Cultural assimilation of immigrants only works if the native population is growing equally. If not, then the assimilation works in the other direction.

Michael K said...

What will the US look like in 75 years? Probably a lot like Mexico looks today. Europe will look a lot like Turkey or Egypt.

Especially if the left continues to rule. Fantasy is not a good rule for civilization.

Openidname said...

Why is a smaller labor force a bad thing -- so bad that we must resort to more immigration? It should raise the price of labor, i.e., individual income.

Last I heard, the left was screaming that we needed to turn our population growth negative to save the planet.

Mattman26 said...

"There's going to be a lot of promiscuous sex when things open up, so to speak, so maybe this baby bust will be followed by a boom."

Back when I was in my 20s and 30s I suspect that would have been the case following a prolonged lockdown. (Even if I had to see to it myself!)

But today, with the basement dorks, and gender fluidity, and incels, and diminishing testosterone levels and sperm counts, and the Covid-sparked phobias, I'm not so sure that the fundamental rules apply any more.

More likely our world will end with a whimper, not a bang.

Mattman26 said...

"Why is a smaller labor force a bad thing?"

Perhaps among other reasons, the one Mark Steyn was banging on about decades ago: first-world countries rely on today's work force to subsidize yesterday's work force (i.e., Social Security). Shrinking today's work force puts further shakiness into an already shaky arrangement.

Scott said...

15 days to flatten the curve. The lie of the century. And they knew it when they lied.

BUMBLE BEE said...

Rosalyn C... Well said. I've mentioned in another thread some time ago about my annoyance with the "Discarded Plastic Island" In the Pacific commercials. To that end I contribute this link https://www.ventusky.com/?p=34;176;1&l=rain-3h Now, tell me where that plastic comes from. Most don't know, (or care), That the Japanese firebombed the U.S. during WWII, one of the bombs having made it as far as Michigan. Such are the Trade Winds, that debris from Fukushima was found washed up in Oregon.

Sebastian said...

"The pandemic’s serious disruption of people’s lives is likely to cause 'missing births'"

The governmental serious disruption in the panicked response to the pandemic.

gbarto said...

AmexPat: They don't need workers to make stuff. They need workers to pay taxes to support Social Security. But not really, they'll just print money till Social Security is worthless.

What they're really concerned about is a lack of consumers (on UBI if necessary) to buy stuff from Amazon and click on Google ads.

We are headed for a new version of the old joke about the Soviet Union: We pretend to work and they pretend to pay us.

Bob Smith said...

Worst of all? Fewer taxpayers to fund those six figure public sector pensions.

ALP said...

Been reading for years about how bad population growth is..."too many people...yada yada bad for the environment...too many people..."

Now a declining birth rate is bad?

In the Seattle area we've been hearing for years how bad the traffic is on I-5 and other highways - I think the region has earned some 'worst commutes in the US' honors in past years. Now the local press is wringing its hands over the fate of downtown Seattle "what WILL we do if so many work from home and *gasp* move out to the suburbs - oh whatever will happen to downtown?"

Something comes along to fix the traffic issue and now that's a bad thing. For once - the traffic in and out of Seattle isn't quite as beastly as it once was.

Lurker21 said...

When the shutdowns started a year ago people were saying that the 15 day shutdown to flatten the curve "was not a snow day." I guess they meant it was serious and angst-filled. It wasn't folks chilling on the sofa with wine and Netflix. O, that it had been!

n.n said...

Imagine there are no "burdens". And only ethics too. Where diversity reigns. Living for today.

Matt Sablan said...

Yeah. I expected nothing of the sort. You get that maybe after a long blizzard... not when this started with dire warnings of millions dead in the street.

I'm Not Sure said...

"not when this started with dire warnings of millions dead in the street."

That would surely please the progressives who think that millions of fewer people is just what the planet needs. So there's that.

MadisonMan said...

My younger son got married during the pandemic.
It's too late now to get a venue in Madison in 2022 for a wedding.

RigelDog said...

Well, for the first time in my life I don't have a lot of hope for the future. Congress just passed an anything-goes voting bill that will guarantee nothing but Democrat, populist, progressivist rule as long as it is in force. America is over. I wouldn't want to have kids now either.

Hammond X. Gritzkofe said...

Meh. Make up for it with pregnant women coming across the southern border.

walter said...

So...disrupting social norms, education and the economy aren't aphrodisiacs/family expansion triggers?

Bunkypotatohead said...

The good news is there will be fewer New Yorkers in our midst.

Hercules, not that one though said...

There was no health crisis. Corona tests were wildly inaccurate. The 'case' numbers were hyper-inflated. The death toll was also hyper-inflated.

It served a purpose. If you thought Democrats would never stoop so low...you haven't been paying attention. You won't grok it, because you wore a mask. You obeyed. You have to protect that.

We have an Occupant in the White House, and we have Chris Wray's FBI hunting Americans.

FIDO said...

Well, there is finally something else to blame for plummeting reproduction rates other than Feminism and their Death Cult Obsession of Abortion.

Unknown said...

Who gives a crap about those people. We only care about people who shake, cower and tremble behind a mask per their masters. And virtue signal everyone to death.