Althouse: "Today's temperature is forecast to be WARMER than yesterday."

February 15, 2021

"Today's temperature is forecast to be WARMER than yesterday."

But right now...

And I need to get to an appointment soon!

115 comments:

Jersey Fled said...: Yikes; 2/15/21, 7:25 AM
Rusty said...: -1 here this morning in the Fox Valley area. Not your Fox Valley, Ann. Mine.; 2/15/21, 7:27 AM
walter said...: Heat wave of 39 degrees a week from now.; 2/15/21, 7:31 AM
David Begley said...: -11 in Omaha.

Can the Left finally admit that Global Warming is a scam?; 2/15/21, 7:32 AM
Harsh Pencil said...: -20 here.; 2/15/21, 7:37 AM
Bob Boyd said...: You're lucky. Some people just have regular old appointments. They don't even need a jacket. So boring.
You have an appointment/arctic adventure.; 2/15/21, 7:39 AM
Leland said...: 16 in Houston and snowing. It feels like the past.; 2/15/21, 7:44 AM
Humperdink said...: Al Gore scheduled to visit Madison? Frigid temperatures generally precede a visit by the former climate crank.; 2/15/21, 7:47 AM
iowan2 said...: Yesterday, our high was -5. We made a trip from north central Iowa to the Mississippi River. 180 miles round trip. Friday I was out and about the high was single digits, and I could do errands and put gas in, with just a light sweatshirt. But yesterday was definitely parka, and gloves weather. Wind was a factor at around 10mph. Standard winter gear in the vehicles, blankets, mittens, boots, shovel, protein bars, water.; 2/15/21, 7:49 AM
Captain BillieBob said...: I went to college in Minnesota. The coldest I recall was a high for the day of -20 not counting the wind chill. Temporary residence was tolerable but I still can't believe people want to live there enduring that brutal cold for half the year.; 2/15/21, 7:51 AM
rhhardin said...: Nobody's heat pump works when it gets noticeably below freezing. It runs but doesn't do anything.; 2/15/21, 7:51 AM
Tina848 said...: 30 here in Philly, celebrating Presidents day. Come visit the Constitution Center and Independence Hall. No Jacket required for hardy Midwestern folks.; 2/15/21, 8:02 AM
mtrobertslaw said...: Ann, don't you have a down parka?; 2/15/21, 8:02 AM
Oh Yea said...: rhhardin said...
Nobody's heat pump works when it gets noticeably below freezing. It runs but doesn't do anything.

My natural gas furnace is running great. Not super efficient being over 20 year old. I believe gas prices are up a little but much better deal than electricity for a heat pump. I would turn the thermostat down a little to save a few dollars but it better to keep it at 70 degrees to keep the wife happy.; 2/15/21, 8:04 AM
rhhardin said...: A heat pump beats gas for a while - a smart system would use the heat pump and then when it gets cold enough switch to the gas furnace. Except the heat pump has maintenance costs; and gas hookup costs per month regardless, so maybe having both doesn't really work.; 2/15/21, 8:08 AM
Jeff Brokaw said...: February in the Upper Midwest ... fortunately it’s a short month! I always say it feels like the longest, LOL.; 2/15/21, 8:10 AM
I'm Full of Soup said...: Yeah it warmed up to almost 38 yesterday in Philly burbs, melted the ice on the roads and sidewalks, and felt almost like summer after a couple weeks of below freezing temps and snow and sleet.; 2/15/21, 8:10 AM
iowan2 said...: Temporary residence was tolerable but I still can't believe people want to live there enduring that brutal cold for half the year.

I posted this last week, but I find it interesting.
The dental assistant helping in doing a new crown for me, spent 16 years in Alaska. But she has had enough of this crap!; 2/15/21, 8:11 AM
Jeff Brokaw said...: It’s all the way up to -2 here in DuPage County IL so yay for us I guess ...; 2/15/21, 8:11 AM
Lewis Wetzel said...: -28 here in Western Wisconsin.; 2/15/21, 8:12 AM
Dan from Madison said...: "Nobody's heat pump works when it gets noticeably below freezing. It runs but doesn't do anything."

Physics is a bitch.; 2/15/21, 8:14 AM
Narayanan said...: David Begley said...
-11 in Omaha.

Can the Left finally admit that Global Warming is a scam?
-----------============
from left side on my mouth >>>> natural proof that Joe Biden won and GAIA is cool with it.; 2/15/21, 8:17 AM
Greg Hlatky said...: I hope this makes us rethink our irresponsible addiction to fossil fuels.; 2/15/21, 8:21 AM
m stone said...: Hair appointment?

m; 2/15/21, 8:21 AM
Greg Hlatky said...: Cold: weather

Hot: climate; 2/15/21, 8:22 AM
Krumhorn said...: I went to Beloit. Even Kevlar could not stop the cold from slicing through your chest.

- Krumhorn; 2/15/21, 8:23 AM
Freder Frederson said...: Can the Left finally admit that Global Warming is a scam?

That it is cold in Wisconsin in February does not mean global warming is not real. BTW the record for today is -14.; 2/15/21, 8:25 AM
Greg Hlatky said...: 14 degrees south of Houston. It was 48 in the kennel when I went there at 6:30 to let the dogs out. Weatherproofing and body heat worked well.; 2/15/21, 8:28 AM
tcrosse said...: Global warming is an article of faith, therefore not susceptible to disproof.; 2/15/21, 8:30 AM
Dave Begley said...: Freder:

It is way more than that. The CAGW scam will deindustrialize America. John Kerry *admitted* that even if the US went to ZERO carbon emissions, it wouldn't make a difference. That's the definition of a SCAM.; 2/15/21, 8:33 AM
Dave Begley said...: Ann:

After you get your vaccination shot, it is your duty as a Madison citizen to patronize all the places you used to visit.

Have you ever been to The Cottage Cafe? Other than the parking lot, super great breakfast place. Reminds me of the 11Worth Cafe in Omaha, now closed due to BLM.; 2/15/21, 8:34 AM
John henry said...: +82 here.

It was 6 at O'Hare Saturday morning.

Sounds like I got out of Flatlandia just in time.

There's no place like home, there's no place like home there's no...

John Henry; 2/15/21, 8:36 AM
exhelodrvr1 said...: -13 in Lincoln. Donated platelets - recommend everyone check with your local bloodbank for donation opportunities.; 2/15/21, 8:38 AM
Humperdink said...: "We've only got 12 years left" says every climate kook ..... every year.; 2/15/21, 8:44 AM
mezzrow said...: 60F on the banks of the St. Johns and foggy. I get the second jab tomorrow.

Don't move to Florida, folks. It's a hellhole. Save yourselves. Florida Man lives here.; 2/15/21, 8:46 AM
Lewis Wetzel said...: I believe the sequence of the argument is:
"The world is getting warmer."
"No it isn't! We had record cold temperature."
"Yes it is. It is simplistic to say that because the world is getting warmer, your weather will always be warmer."
"So it is a complicated issue. Okay, show me that you completely all the elements that contribute to climate."
"It's simple, really. The world is getting warmer."; 2/15/21, 8:48 AM
Roughcoat said...: Those of us who grew up in the Midwest in the 50s and 60s think of this as a normal winter -- winter as it always was and should be.

The ground freezes at the end of November and thaws out in March. Snow drifts and snowplow mountains that last four months. Temperatures regularly in the teens and single digits. Frost on the windows.

Normal.; 2/15/21, 8:51 AM
Captain BillieBob said...: Re the global warming scam. If the temps in Minn were -20 fifty years ago when I was in college and temps today get to -20 (or even lower) exactly how much has the planet warmed in almost 50 years?
Also there's 2'+ or - of snow on the ground here in NJ with more ice and snow on the way.; 2/15/21, 8:53 AM
Dave Begley said...: Next to identity politics, I consider the CAGW scam to be the biggest internal threat to America.; 2/15/21, 9:05 AM
Freder Frederson said...: If the temps in Minn were -20 fifty years ago when I was in college and temps today get to -20 (or even lower) exactly how much has the planet warmed in almost 50 years?

You have to look at average temps, not the extremes.; 2/15/21, 9:06 AM
Owen said...: Temperature is a scalar. Without a really dense field (over space and time) of temperature values, you only have a weak guess at what T “really” is. The argument should be about energy (heat: the integral of T) and the flux of energy between the earth and its surroundings (deep space). That flux is remarkably stable and the predicted increased height in the atmosphere of a given radiative flux level has not happened. Just as the predicted runaway rise in sea level and the runaway melting of Antarctica have not happened. The alarmist models consistently fail. They can’t even hind-cast.

But that doesn’t deter the Freders; not in the least. This is about pagan faith, not science.; 2/15/21, 9:09 AM
Lewis Wetzel said...: Blogger Freder Frederson said...

If the temps in Minn were -20 fifty years ago when I was in college and temps today get to -20 (or even lower) exactly how much has the planet warmed in almost 50 years?

You have to look at average temps, not the extremes.

And of that don't make it seem warmer, use median temps. And if that doesn't make it appear warmer, than ignore the dataset.; 2/15/21, 9:10 AM
Tommy Duncan said...: Blogger BillieBob Thorton said...

"I went to college in Minnesota. The coldest I recall was a high for the day of -20 not counting the wind chill. Temporary residence was tolerable but I still can't believe people want to live there enduring that brutal cold for half the year."

The good thing about the cold Minnesota weather is that temperatures in the -20 range kill off most of the remaining mosquitos.

-19 here this morning.; 2/15/21, 9:20 AM
Owen said...: Lewis Wetzel @ 9:10: what you said. Maybe we can ask Freder to explain the urban heat island effect. We settle a place and build stuff and it produces and retains heat —and then we read the thermometer (that used to be in the meadow; which got turned into a parking lot next to the AC exhaust for the mall) and we freak out over how hot it’s gotten. And Al Gore gets rich by appearing at tent meetings for the Gaia-worshippers.

This is a sociological phenomenon; a pathological one. Makes me want to read up on the history of religious revivals, the gimlet-eyed pinch-mouthed Temperance zealots, all of that fury and folly...; 2/15/21, 9:21 AM
Dave Begley said...: Owen is so, so right. Alarmist models consistently fail. The laugher is that they *never* concede they were wrong.

And never forget we are dealing with models here. Models are predictions about future events. in the case of CAGW, the modelers have a financial bias to come with the results that are wanted. The models are deeply flawed and depend on corrupt data.

Right now, Tesla is priced with the assumption that by 2040 nearly everyone will be driving a Tesla. GM and F have a say in that. So do consumers.; 2/15/21, 9:21 AM
Temujin said...: It's 76° right now in Sarasota, After 2 days of full clouds (which is a horror here and why it's known as the 'Suncoast') the sun has finally come out. Getting up to 80 today. The humidity, which had been on a 2 month sabbatical, is coming back and that signals about 45 more days of nice weather temps before we enter the Heat Zone of the summer months (which stretch deep into the autumn).

So- I'm not gloating. Your winter is our summer. But, I'd still rather be hot than freakin freezing. And after a few years, I've actually gotten used to the heat. Plus, it's not hard to drive in the heat. You don't need special tires or chains. And you don't have to shovel the heat off the drive or scrape it off of your car. In fact, it gets so hot you don't want to touch the exterior of your car, lest you burn your arm.

Every place has it's stuff. You just gotta choose that stuff which you like better, or are more willing to put up with.; 2/15/21, 9:23 AM
alan markus said...: I am getting my 1st shot today. Kind of having 2nd thoughts about doing it. 68 years old, feel quite healthy, anyone I know who caught the bug recovered just fine, was going to let the frail and elderly "oldsters" in on the first rounds. The rate of daily spread (in WI) seems to have collapsed. The downward trend started in mid-November. I passed on the first round at my provider - when they started taking appointments, 2 days in, there were 400 slots available.

Now my liberal boomer friends on Facebook are apoplectic that they can not get their shots scheduled, as in RIGHT.NOW.DAMMIT! All Trump's fault, he did not have a "plan" to distribute the shots. I guess he is some kind of idiot - fast tracked the development of several vaccines, but did not anticipate that his personal guidance was necessary in designing the logistics for a distribution network covering 50 states. But those boomers are all happy Biden has ordered plenty of shots - they may not have yet noticed that most doses will be on back order, so it still will not satisfy the boomer entitlement mentality of we want "RIGHT.NOW.DAMMIT."

So, I noticed that despite the on line health charts saying no shots available, every few days a few scattered appointments were available - I assume due to cancellations. So, I signed up for one. Hopefully nobody's boomer maw-maw or paw-paw will die on my behalf.

I think Inga got hers early on!

Embarrassed to be in the boomer cohort - as usual, we are sort of like the pig being swallowed by a python.; 2/15/21, 9:25 AM
John henry said...: Actually, it is 447 degrees R.

Doesn't that make you feel warmer?

John Henry; 2/15/21, 9:33 AM
Clyde said...: 82 degrees in southwest Florida right now, going up to 88 this afternoon according to my phone app. It's supposed to get cold on Friday night, down to 43 and a high of only 66 on Saturday. That's Florida winter. I'll have to wear jeans instead of shorts on Saturday morning.; 2/15/21, 9:34 AM
jrem said...: -34F in Deer Park, Wi this morning.; 2/15/21, 9:36 AM
mikee said...: I, for one, told a person from Chicago, who recently bought a half million dollar home from me here in Austin, that I blamed our current cold weather and snow here in Austin on all the northerners moving here, who bring it with them. She was not amused.; 2/15/21, 9:40 AM
John henry said...: Blogger Freder Frederson said...

You have to look at average temps, not the extremes.

True, freder.

the problem is that the temperatures record, even for the US which has the most accurate records for the past 100 years or so, is absolute shit. It might be accurate to within +/- 4-5 degrees F or so. Maybe. uncalibrated thermometers, untrained readers, relocation of stations and more.

Data for most of the rest of the world is even worse. Ever look at data sets for the African continent? China? Even Australia outside the cities?

On top of that, we have virtually no data for about 50% of the world (Oceans outside the sea lanes).

Maybe the world is warming. Maybe it is cooling. We have no way to tell because we have no usable records or data.

And carbon, though a pollutant in the air, is certainly not affecting it.

John "Trust me I am a double scientist" Henry; 2/15/21, 9:42 AM
Freder Frederson said...: Maybe the world is warming. Maybe it is cooling. We have no way to tell because we have no usable records or data.

Actually we do. You can look at data like the retreat of glaciers, icing and thawing of lakes. A; 2/15/21, 9:53 AM
Joe Smith said...: The good new is, the vaccine can be shipped to you without artificial refrigeration : ); 2/15/21, 9:58 AM
iowan2 said...: feder is doing his best. Ignoring the facts with the standard leftist "paying attention to facts is not science"

Past historic high temps have been adjusted. Always down. Never has a single scientist shared the science being used to make those adjustments.

Not a single bit of science has produced exactly what will happen to temperatures 30 years from now if the United States hit zero carbon emissions. Put another way, there is no science to support the cure. The have started with a goal, and created a scenario to do what they want to do.

We know this is all a scam, because the scientists have said so. See University of East Anglia e-mails

The pause has never been scienced to explain why temperatures do not follow the models.

Models have never been able to match actual temperatures, after the fact, but somehow we must destroy the economy using the models for the future.; 2/15/21, 10:01 AM
Joe Smith said...: "Can the Left finally admit that Global Warming is a scam?"

It was revised to 'Global Climate Change' for this very reason...they had to find a term for too hot and too cold.

There will always be weird weather patterns, but this is a great way to transfer wealth and monetize it.; 2/15/21, 10:02 AM
walter said...: Krumhorn said...I went to Beloit. Even Kevlar could not stop the cold
--
Still a wise choice...; 2/15/21, 10:06 AM
Joe Smith said...: As a bonus, climate change is racist too...you know, it affects the people of color more than the white folk.

It's two scams in one!®; 2/15/21, 10:10 AM
iowan2 said...: I'll have to wear jeans instead of shorts on Saturday morning.

I see guys in gym sorts and sandals (they have added socks) about once a week. The last time, I looked at my dashboard thermometer, and it was +2f; 2/15/21, 10:10 AM
Howard said...: If it's 90 at 80% rh, how do you dress to be cool outdoors? You can't. In freezing winter, you can be toasty warm outside all day with the right kit. Fortunately, New England has the moderating Atlantic buffering the polar bear vortex.; 2/15/21, 10:11 AM
Howard said...: I predict global warming will accelerate the coming ice age. We will freeze in the North while the equatorial countries will become intolerably hot and humid. That's how globowarmerung is racis; 2/15/21, 10:14 AM
rhhardin said...: So far it's the great snowstorm hype in central Ohio. It's been looking spotty on radar for a few days but they didn't give up yet. Still more eyeballs to sell to advertisers.; 2/15/21, 10:14 AM
Lucien said...: There is no bad weather, only bad clothing (they say in Norway). So if you’re dreading going out, that may prompt some introspection about your clothing choices.; 2/15/21, 10:15 AM
rhhardin said...: Kodak film guides would call our weather "hazy sun."; 2/15/21, 10:16 AM
rhhardin said...: You get cool outdoors the way I do. Ride a bike.; 2/15/21, 10:17 AM
John henry said...: Blogger iowan2 said...

zero carbon emissions.

Carbon emissions are not the problem. They are not even the claimed problem. Carbon emissions are solid particles that settle out of the air pretty quickly. They are a pollutant, causing smog and other stuff but they are not the source of so-called global whatsit.

The claim is that carbon dioxide is the problem.

Carbon dioxide is related to carbon in the same way water is related to hydrogen. Two completely different characteristics.

Carbon dioxide is friendly. We use it to make bread rise, bubbles in beer champagne and soft drinks, put out fires, grow plants and other friendly uses. Nobody doesn't like CO2.

So they talk about "carbon" pollutions, footprints, emissions and the like. Carbon is coal, graphite, when burned it can make smoke and so on. Lots of people don't like carbon. It's seen as dirty.

(It is also diamonds, so there's that)

So instead of talking about CO2 pollution, the propagandists talk about "carbon" pollution which is not even a thing. For global whatsit, anyway.

Iowan, when you speak of carbon footprints, you are helping the propagandists. I suspect you are doing it inadvertently but you should stop doing it. Everyone should stop doing it.

Except folks like Freder who do it on purpose for propaganda reasons. They should stop too but they won't because they think it is useful propaganda.

John Henry; 2/15/21, 10:19 AM
John henry said...: Question for Freder:

Is there any scientist, anywhere, claiming that carbon causes global warming/cooling/change/disaster/whatsit or whatever the word of the day is?

John Henry; 2/15/21, 10:21 AM
Hey Skipper said...: @Freder Ferderson: Actually we do. You can look at data like the retreat of glaciers, icing and thawing of lakes.

Let's have some Google fun. This search will track down NYT articles that include "sea level" rise spanning 1985 to 1995.

Funny how wildly wrong all those articles are.

Of course, 2020 is one of those decadal years that climate "scientists" loved to hang predictions on. How is that working out?

Closer to home, warming is certain to significantly lower the level of the Great Lakes, and greatly reduce ice cover.. How is that working out?

And enquiring minds want to know:

Remember those climate model ensemble spaghetti graphs? Why don't we see them anymore?

The Hockey Stick. It's been a long time since we've been continually clubbed with it. Why?

The branding has changed. Global Warming. Climate Change. Climate Disruption. Climate Chaos. Climate Emergency. (I'm sure there are more, those are just the ones I can remember off the top of my head.). Why?

Why is weather not climate, but the inevitable clustering of random events is (i.e., last year's hurricanes)?

Compare the predictions from around 1990 to what actually happened. Who has been closer to reality, the IPCC, or those who claimed that CO2 increases within predicted ranges would have no effect whatsoever on climate?; 2/15/21, 10:23 AM
Owen said...: Freder @ 9:53: "...You can look at data like the retreat of glaciers,..." Glad you opened that door, Freder. Because in the Alps and Scandinavia they are now finding prehistoric human artifacts and settlements under the now-retreating ice.

So, Freder, here's the puzzler. How did that stuff get in there under the ice? Hmmm. Hmmm.

Stumped, Freder? Here's a hint. Because the Earth was warmer back then and the glaciers had not come that far south or down from the mountain tops.

But that simply cannot be, can it, Freder? Because until we began stinking up the planet with fossil fuels in the 1800's (but really since the mid-1900's) there was no natural cause for the Earth to warm. You've got that all figured out.; 2/15/21, 10:26 AM
Dave Begley said...: John henry:

I like your style and precision. I won't concede a thing to the warmists.

I note that in a 5-4 vote (JP Stevens writing for the majority) SCOTUS said that the EPA could regulate carbon dioxide under the Clean Air Act. Massachusetts v. EPA is in the top ten of wrongly decided SCOTUS cases.; 2/15/21, 10:32 AM
Owen said...: John Henry @ 10:19: what you said; you obviously have some science chops and it's great to hear your comments. ...I use "carbon pollution" sarcastically but I suspect you're right to press us all not to use it at all; because sarcasm only works if the audience is "in on the joke" and when it comes Climate Hysteria I don't think enough people are, in fact, in on the joke. Which is pretty depressing. I'm no physicist but I know how to read a graph and follow an argument; and for the past decade-plus it has been clear to me that what is being fed to the public is a scam. It began when the UN set up the IPCC and framed the whole debate as "human-caused warming" rather than "science about climate," which would have avoided the obvious rigging to ignore natural causes of the changes observed over millennia rather than last week.

Basic information theory says you can't identify a signal in the noise unless you have sampled it for at least 2 cycles. The climate clearly has multiple elements that cycle at different rates, but a 60-year cycle does seem to exist; which would require us to sample things (on a consistent basis; not with retroactively cooked data) for about 120 years. That would mean 1900: merely to see if we can find regularities in the trajectory of T. But then we'd have to go back much farther to see what T was doing "before" we began messing it up with our horrible fossil fuels. Have we done that? Could we do it?

/rant; 2/15/21, 10:38 AM
Temujin said...: iowan2: Thank you for bringing up the East Anglia emails. It amazes me how the media and hence, the masses always simply choose to ignore reality, even when it's laying on the ground in front of them.

It's best to take people at their own word. When they tell you they are frauds, best believe it.

Freder Frederson said: "Actually we do. You can look at data like the retreat of glaciers, icing and thawing of lakes."

Also the movement of entire populations or parts of populations, the demise of entire civilizations. Some of this we now know was caused by changes in the environment. Unfortunately for The Cause, it had nothing to do with carbon emissions and much of this occurred long before there were horseless carriages or indoor air conditioning. The climate has always and will always continue to change. We adapt to it as the earth adapts to us. If we get too out of line, the earth will simply shake us off. We are as a gnat on a cows behind to this planet and it's systems which we still do not understand. Anyone know when and why the magnetic poles are shifting? I suspect it's not because of my car. Anyone understand the reaction of the earths environment to the Sun's solar activity? No? But you're sure that my Volvo is a problem.

Well...to paraphrase John Kerry: It's the only way for a person like me who is traveling the countryside to make a living.; 2/15/21, 10:41 AM
Owen said...: David Begley @ 10:32. "Massachusetts v. EPA is in the top ten..." Disagree: top 5.

That really was a turning point. The two sides tanked the case to produce that result where the Supremes (all Nobel-winning atmospheric physicists) told us that CO2 was a pollutant. C Oh effing two. AYFKM. ...But at least it wasn't H2O --by far the biggest greenhouse gas out there. /sarc.; 2/15/21, 10:43 AM
Hey Skipper said...: @Owen: Basic information theory says you can't identify a signal in the noise unless you have sampled it for at least 2 cycles.

Same goes for "extreme weather events", a la the 2019 hurricanes, which were labeled a harbinger of Climate Chaos, because a warming planet means more, and more severe, hurricanes. Missing completely were facts, like what percentage increase in hurricanes or their severity.

5%, 10%? Who knows.

Let's assume 10%. How many years would it take to separate that signal from randomly distributed events? Can't remember where I read it, but 150 years springs to mind.

It is worth noting that temperatures have increased 3º F since the end of the Little Ice Age. Surely that is enough of an increase, and enough time, to measure the effect of climate change on hurricanes, right?; 2/15/21, 10:50 AM
mikee said...: What we are seeing here is weather, not climate. Stop the arguing, kids, or I'm turning this clown car around and taking us all straight home!; 2/15/21, 10:54 AM
Captain BillieBob said...: My geological history is a little spotty but from what I can recall we are in still in a glacial period, one of many glacial periods. As I am sure you all know Cape Cod was formed by a glacier as well as many other geologic formations. Also, planet Earth has been ice free for longer periods of time than it has been glaciated. You might conclude from that that there have been periods when it was much warmer. Warmer than when humans first appeared. But don't take my word for you can look it up. It's on the internets.; 2/15/21, 10:58 AM
Owen said...: Hey Skipper @ 10:50: "...hurricanes..." Hurricanes are Nature's way of moving energy through (and out of) the Earth climate system. They run on heat; and instead of the heat in the tropical ocean moving gently north (e.g. Gulf Stream) to the polar regions where it radiates/convects away to the top of the atmosphere, it (the heat) takes a hellacious short-cut: spins up surface winds to crazy velocities (thanks to vertical shear and convective processes) and throws a tantrum for a week or so. ...If you look at ocean surface temperature patterns after a hurricane, you can pretty well follow its track --of markedly cooler water. All that heat has gone straight up into the stratosphere and into space.

But we are told this is going to get worse? When the effect is to restore the system to its long-term equilibrium? Look at the record of hurricanes (ALL hurricanes, not just landfalling ones) over the past 50-80 years. Does it show increasing frequency and severity? Only in the insurance price tags: because we build more stuff in harm's way.

/rant; 2/15/21, 11:07 AM
MadisonMan said...: Days like today: I'm glad we have a (detached) garage. Car isn't sitting out in the cold all the time.; 2/15/21, 11:22 AM
Owen said...: This seems relevant. The Sustainable Energy Revolution is hitting Texas at full strength!

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2021/02/15/texas-frozen-wind-power-outages-ensue-electricity-now-at-unheard-of-9000-per-megawatt-hour/

We're going to see a lot more grid failures as we go "forward." Partly because there are more of us and we all want more electricity; partly because stuff gets old and breaks; partly because the Green Energy sources are unstable and (what is different) DESTABILIZING; partly because policy and programs have enormous inertia/momentum; partly because the system depends on investment and engineering and construction and zoning decisions with enormous inertia/momentum. Just my quick guess at why the future is not pretty.

Plus with Biden we are gonna double down and double down again. He and his people are on the bridge of the Titanic ordering more steam.

/rant; 2/15/21, 11:34 AM
Tomcc said...: I've been pretty much housebound for the last three days. Nasty ice and snow storm in the PNW (and a lot of other places). It's 36 degrees and thawing now, but the streets in my development are still deep with snow and ice. Not sure about the secondary and main roads. I do need to get out today; had my last beer yesterday.; 2/15/21, 11:40 AM
Owen said...: Tomcc @ 11:40: "...had my last beer yesterday." Definitely an emergency! ;-) Stay safe.; 2/15/21, 11:49 AM
Skippy Tisdale said...: I worked for a Minneapolis-based utility company whose jurisdiction covered a good bit of North Dakota. A couple of times a year we met with the North Dakota Public Service Commission (NDPSC) in what were called Periodic Information Exchange (PIE) meetings. Invariably one would be scheduled for the dead of winter. Who in their right mind want to go to Bismarck on a day like today? Why PIE meetings weren't schedule in the spring and fall instead is a mystery to me. Perhaps hit was a NDPSC leverage thing.

On a related note, a Delta Airlines plane ticket from Minneapolis to Bismarck, ND runs about $500. A Delta Airlines plane ticket from Minneapolis to Bismarck, Germany runs about $500. Talk about price-gouging.; 2/15/21, 11:52 AM
rcocean said...: How does -31 feel? I assume once you past ZERO, its just too damn Cold.; 2/15/21, 12:04 PM
Rusty said...: "Freder Frederson said: "Actually we do. You can look at data like the retreat of glaciers, icing and thawing of lakes.""
Well, we can't because Dr. Mann won't release how he got his data. I suspect it's fabricated. And then you have all this evidence that is falling out of retreating glaciers. All of it, so far, indicates the climate was much warmer than now before the last ice age. As a scientist the data is secondary to how the data was collected.; 2/15/21, 12:30 PM
Skippy Tisdale said...: Next to identity politics, I consider the CAGW scam to be the biggest internal threat to America.

Next to identity politics, I consider the CAGW scam to be the biggest plank in the Biden platform.; 2/15/21, 12:34 PM
Skippy Tisdale said...: The good thing about the cold Minnesota weather is that temperatures in the -20 range kill off most of the remaining mosquitos.

Fortunately, it's a dry cold.; 2/15/21, 12:36 PM
Skippy Tisdale said...: This is a sociological phenomenon; a pathological one. Makes me want to read up on the history of religious revivals, the gimlet-eyed pinch-mouthed Temperance zealots, all of that fury and folly...

I believe it's known as the Nongqawuse Effect.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nongqawuse; 2/15/21, 12:39 PM
Lars Porsena said...: "You have to look at average temps, not the extremes."

If you have your head in a freezer and your ass in an oven your average temperature should be okay.; 2/15/21, 12:42 PM
Skippy Tisdale said...: Actually we do. You can look at data like the retreat of glaciers, icing and thawing of lakes. A

Lake Superior freezes at least in part every year and less frequently in its entirety. The last year that it froze completely was in February 1994.

https://www.lakesuperiorstreams.org/understanding/ice.html#:~:text=Lake%20Superior%20freezes%20at%20least,completely%20was%20in%20February%201994.; 2/15/21, 12:53 PM
rcocean said...: Global Warming is the go-to discussion for the politcal bore. How can you make -12 degrees boring? Talk about global warming.

I guess its no worse then Evoluation debate no. 5,432, 123. But not by much.; 2/15/21, 12:59 PM
Owen said...: Skippy Tisdale @ 12:39: thanks for the link, gonna check that out. Just as soon as I ingest some mood brighteners.

People, gotta tell you. I grew up in the Yukon Territory. Not denigrating the current cold snap but you really ought to check out Whitehorse or Dawson (or particularly Snag) in mid-winter, if you wanna know about cold.

One thing I took away from my time in the North, was a decent respect for the opinion of the cosmos. And the fact is, the cosmos is very, very, very cold. As in: absolute zero. Or near enough.

For us to be worrying about a degree C here or there is like dowagers fighting over the seating order at the head table of the Titanic .; 2/15/21, 1:04 PM
Whiskeybum said...: Just checked a weather map (temperature). The temp in southern part of the Canadian Northwester Territories was 3F. I looked down into the US to see how far I could go and still find only 3F.

Tulsa, OK.; 2/15/21, 1:18 PM
Owen said...: rcocean @ 12:59: "...for the political bore..."

Thanks for that little snark. Yeah, it's very boring to get into science and, you know, facts. Whereas in your middle-school nirvana, you can just talk about who was mean to whom.

At a minimum, this makes you trivial. More likely, it makes you deliberately obtuse.

Sad.; 2/15/21, 1:26 PM
Jim at said...: That it is cold in Wisconsin in February does not mean global warming is not real.

If you leftists can scream about global warming every time there's a heat wave, we can call bullshit on your claims every time it's cold.

The Earth's climate has been changing for 4.5 billion years. STFU and deal with it.; 2/15/21, 1:34 PM
BUMBLE BEE said...: IIRC Prof Mann's stake in the climate game was $10 million in grant money for his school to "study" the matter. No incentive to hockey stick it there as far as I can see. I may be wrong.; 2/15/21, 1:48 PM
DavidUW said...: 1) You believe thermometers from 150 years ago?
2) You don't believe in historical records of the planet being so warm the Romans were growing wine in London and the Vikings were farming sheep in Greenland.
3) You ignore that maybe, just maybe, the world might be in a long term warming cycle after emerging from the cooling (culminating in the "little Ice Age" in the mid 1700's) period from around 1350-1750?

Then you might believe in global warming caused by human actions now!; 2/15/21, 1:53 PM
walter said...: You think YOU got problems!
Breaking911
@Breaking911
·
5m
Honduran Woman Crosses Border Into Texas, Gives Birth In Frigid Temperatures https://breaking911.com/honduran-woman-crosses-border-into-texas-gives-birth-in-frigid-temperatures/; 2/15/21, 1:54 PM
Freeman Hunt said...: It's so cold that it froze the drain line from one of our furnaces and made it stop. Fortunately the other closet with a furnace is indoors, so that furnace is still running.; 2/15/21, 1:55 PM
Owen said...: BUMBLE BEE @ 1:48: "...I may be wrong." Or not.

McKittrick and McIntryre pretty well demolished the hockey stick, IMHO. IIRC they showed that you could feed any data at all into the climate model and it would generate the hockey stick.; 2/15/21, 1:57 PM
Bobber Fleck said...: Blogger rcocean said...

"How does -31 feel? I assume once you past ZERO, its just too damn Cold."

There is a big difference between zero and -31. At -31 the wind makes your eyeballs water and hurt and a new car battery struggles. Wet hair freezes stiff between the locker room and the parking lot. Your exposed ears burn and turn rigid.; 2/15/21, 2:03 PM
Howard said...: John Henry: Black Carbon emissions are responsible for ~1/3 of AGW forcings according to the IPCC.; 2/15/21, 2:15 PM
tcrosse said...: Cue Ed McMahon saying "How cold was it?"; 2/15/21, 2:18 PM
rcocean said...: "At a minimum, this makes you trivial. More likely, it makes you deliberately obtuse."

Making the same ol' damn arguments about "Climate change" and "Global warming" is boring as fuck. Its like people always chiming in and saying how much they hate "Nazis" or talking about Evolution. Some topics have been beaten to fucking death. And this is one of them.

But go ahead talk about it. I'd rather put a bucket on my head and run naked when its -31 degrees. At least that would be NEW.; 2/15/21, 2:24 PM
Dave Begley said...: Rolling blackouts in Lincoln, NE. Lincoln gets 34% of its power from renewables. Same deal in Texas.; 2/15/21, 2:35 PM
tcrosse said...: Even if we were to stipulate that AGW is a thing, there's still room for debate about what to do about it. This makes it an engineering question.; 2/15/21, 2:56 PM
MadisonMan said...: Lincoln gets 34% of its power from renewables
I would say that much of that percentage is wind driven, at least in Nebraska. There is no shortage of wind with this airmass.; 2/15/21, 3:02 PM
MadisonMan said...: Lake Superior freezes at least in part every year and less frequently in its entirety. The last year that it froze completely was in February 1994.
I recall the cold air of 1994 with some antipathy. That was a cold winter.
Anyway, one does not track changes by looking at Lakes that rarely freeze over; rather, one looks at lakes that almost always freeze over, such as Mendota here in Madison, one of the most heavily studied lakes in the world.
So you get charts like this one, available at this website.
Or, you look at Nenana Ice Classic dates (I made a bet once, was off by a week).
I am unaware of a Lake Ice dataset that shows a longer lake ice season now than back in the 1800s. If someone knows of one, please post it.; 2/15/21, 3:14 PM
rhhardin said...: It can get so hot that it goes into negative absolute temperatures. #physics; 2/15/21, 3:30 PM
Clyde said...: Freder Frederson said...
Maybe the world is warming. Maybe it is cooling. We have no way to tell because we have no usable records or data.

Actually we do. You can look at data like the retreat of glaciers, icing and thawing of lakes.

And whenever those glaciers retreat, what do they usually find? Frozen bodies and human artifacts. In other words, it was warmer than it is now before those glaciers advanced.; 2/15/21, 3:44 PM
Meade said...: Lincoln gets 34% of its power from renewables
I would say that much of that percentage is wind driven, at least in Nebraska. There is no shortage of wind with this airmass.
----------------------------------------------

"Over 2 million Texans had to start their cold Monday mornings without power and a plethora of frozen wind turbines is a large reason why. The turbines, many of which are located on wind farms in the western and northern portions of the state, ground to a halt this weekend by the unseasonably cold and moist winter conditions from the storm. "
http://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-weather/live-news/live-updates-millions-without-power-amid-deep-freeze-major-winter-storm-in-central-us/900760?entry=frozen-wind-turbines-contribute-to-massive-power-outages-in-texas; 2/15/21, 4:12 PM
I'm Not Sure said...: "The turbines, many of which are located on wind farms in the western and northern portions of the state, ground to a halt this weekend by the unseasonably cold and moist winter conditions from the storm."

Pity there weren't some gas fired power plants nearby to help keep the windmills warm and turning. And shredding birds and bats.; 2/15/21, 4:40 PM
Tomcc said...: Here in Oregon they are decommissioning 12 coal fired plants over 8 years without a plan to (fully) replace the power they produce. Here's a quote from one of our local news sites: "Experts say we will have a one in four chance of blackouts by the year 2026."
The people that support these policies see that as a feature, not a bug.; 2/15/21, 6:10 PM
ken in tx said...: Congress needs to do something about consent decree abuse. The EPA sometimes foments and conspires to a suit by environmental activists against itself. It then consents to actions to settle the suit, that it did not have the legal authority to do otherwise. It's a backdoor way to change the law.; 2/15/21, 8:54 PM
Anonymous said...: I was born in 1952. The winters were cold. The trees were crowned with ice. To me, that was normal. I had nothing with which to compare it. A few years passed, Spring came and...
I jumped into the Shark River to relish the glory of the renewal of Spring. Young and stupid.

Mom was not pleased. Dad stayed silent.

Dad had done the same thing, but I was a boy, and Mom had to handle the colds, and the flus, and the abrasions. Dad handled the splinters from the rough handling of wood, in this world.

If I got a splinter, I went to Dad, and I knew it would be painful because he would take one of Mom's needles and he would dig it out. Mom couldn't do it. Then Dad would paint my hand with Mercurochrome for some reason.

Dad liked Mercurochrome and Iodine.

To a new soul in this world, everything was normal.

Whatever you grow up with...it's normal to you.; 2/15/21, 9:17 PM
Narayanan said...: while you have frozen lake you can still enjoy biking

next project for Meade?; 2/19/21, 12:01 AM