February 22, 2021

"In his first post-presidential appearance, Donald Trump plans to send the message next weekend that he is Republicans' 'presumptive 2024 nominee' with a vise grip on the party's base..."

"... top Trump allies tell Axios.... A longtime adviser called Trump's speech a 'show of force,' and said the message will be: 'I may not have Twitter or the Oval Office, but I'm still in charge.' Payback is his chief obsession.... Trump is expected to stoke primary challenges [in 2022] for some of those who have crossed him, and shower money and endorsements on the Trumpiest candidates.... Many Trump confidants think he'll pretend to run but ultimately pass. He knows the possibility — or threat — gives him leverage and attention.... Trump plans to argue in the CPAC speech that many of his predictions about President Biden have already come true. Look for Trump to lay into 'the swamp' and Beltway insiders in a big way. The Trump source said: 'Much like 2016, we’re taking on Washington again.'"  

Axios reports.

142 comments:

Rick.T. said...

Too old. I can't imagine working up enough enthusiasm to get to the polls for any Republican candidate except maybe DeSantis.

Big Mike said...

Three years is a long time. We don't even have the luxury of knowing who will be in the Oval Office in February of 2024.

But, yeah. Going forward he has the support of more than 50% of the Republican voters, and any one else will have to figure out how to beat that.

Mark said...

Axios, a Washington Post production. Utilizing the same Washington Post reporting methods of "someone familiar with the situation" sourcing.

Dave Begley said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Dave Begley said...

"Many Trump confidants think he'll pretend to run but ultimately pass."

We were constantly told Trump would never run and then, after he entered the race, that he would withdraw and that the whole thing was a publicity stunt. He was hyping himself for a TV show or the Trump Network.

If he's healthy, he's running.

Biden has been in office for over a month now and not a single leak. How is that?

Gahrie said...

I think he should run with the Speaker of the House idea. (By the way, he doesn't even have to run for the House personally for this to happen. There is nothing that says the Speaker of the House has to be a member of Congress. The Speaker can be anybody a majority of the House votes for.)

Could you imagine the sight of Pelosi handing over the gavel to Trump? She'd stroke out on the spot!

Sebastian said...

"presumptive 2024 nominee"

No. He's a loser.

"with a vise grip on the party's base..."

No. The base is itself divided.

TeaBagHag said...

Honest question: Does Trump like being the center of attention MORE than he likes governing?
Is he much better at creating a spectacle, than he is at thinking soberly about a subject?

alfromchgo said...

" We don't even have the luxury of knowing who will be in the Oval Office"

It is safe to assume that what ever it is in reality it will be nothing but an Obama sock puppet.

Gahrie said...

Too old.

I agree.

I can't imagine working up enough enthusiasm to get to the polls for any Republican candidate except maybe DeSantis.

DeSantis is certainly the current front runner, but I don't know if I can be enthusiastic about him. The worst part about the last four years was seeing people I thought highly of take cheap shots against Trump.

I've got two longshot predictions:

A) Richard Grenell (20%?)

or

B) James Woods (2%)

iowan2 said...

President Trump will do whatever President Trump does. It falls the the challengers to....challenge. Who has what it takes to challenge President Trump?

If you think you have what it takes to be the President of the United States, and you stumble at President Trump, you have already shown your lack leadership.

Mark said...

Will Trump run?

Who knows. But one thing we can be certain of is that NOTHING in Axios is trustworthy, so it is pointless to give any of this any credence.

Big Mike said...

But one thing we can be certain of is that NOTHING in Axios is trustworthy, so it is pointless to give any of this any credence.

+ 1

deepelemblues said...

His people are going to be the balance of power in both houses of Congress in two years. I don't see him taking that as anything but a clarion call to run again.

Charlie said...

"When I want an un-biased, down-the-middle political analysis, I always turn to Axios!"- No one, ever.

Kate said...

What @Gahrie said.

I've stepped off the Trump Train. I have little enthusiasm for politics at this point, but Ric piques my interest.

chuck said...

IMHO, Trump hasn't shown skill picking state candidates. It is tricky because the elections are local and the Republican Party varies by state. The Georgia Republican party isn't the Utah Republican party. I think Palin did a pretty good job of it, but Trump will need to spend time talking to people and get good advice from people more knowledgeable than himself. The party also needs a platform, anti DC isn't enough. I would suggest supporting the first and second amendments as a good starting point together with anti-racism to counter the Democrats' devotion to racism. The anti-racism platform is where some intellectuals could be useful.

Can Trump pull it off? I don't know, but I hope someone out there has the skills.

NorthOfTheOneOhOne said...

Big Mike said...

Three years is a long time. We don't even have the luxury of knowing who will be in the Oval Office in February of 2024.

I'm expecting we'll be in such a mess as a country by then it probably won't matter.

Bill589 said...

I'll vote for anyone the Swamp hates including DJT for President.
I've come to hate the backstabbing, undermining GOP, but I will vote for someone, not because they have an 'R' after their name, but in spite of it as long as the GOP establishment opposes them like they did DJT and SP.

Leland said...

Payback is his chief obsession

I don't buy much of what Axios is selling, but I am sure that payback seems to be Pelosi's chief obsession.

Mike of Snoqualmie said...

The base wants a can-do candidate, one who will actually fulfill his promises. That why Trump was so popular. He laid out an conservative agenda and worked to complete it. He said he'd build the wall and did so, even if Mexico didn't fund it. But, Mexico finally enforced immigration controls on its southern border, which it had neve done before.

I'm skeptical that Trump will actually run in 2024. He'll be the power behind the actual candidate. A GOPe need not apply. The last thing we want id s Paul Ryan type candidate, "full of sound and fury, but signifying nothing." That's from Shakespeare's Macbeth, not Faulkner. Don't tell the MSM that, they'll say you're lying.

The Vault Dweller said...

It would be in the Republicans' Interest to get this sorted out sooner rather than later. I know the Never Trumpers probably thought this love affair with Trump was done and over and they could get back to business as usual. However, while that might end up being the case, I do not think that is certain, and if anything I think the majority of people who vote Republican to still support Trump and favor him over any other candidate now.

From Trump's view this makes sense. There is no one else that can compete with his stature in the Republican party currently. And this gives him plenty of opportunities to set up comparisons with himself and Joe Biden. And Joe Biden like most life long politicians is going to seem fake to most people. And I don't think he can reinvent himself into a 'genuine' politician. You can't teach a dog with low to moderate cognitive decline new tricks.

James K said...

“DeSantis is certainly the current front runner, but I don't know if I can be enthusiastic about him. The worst part about the last four years was seeing people I thought highly of take cheap shots against Trump.”

Did DeSantis take a cheap shot against Trump? If so, I missed it.


Yancey Ward said...

I think it likely that Trump decides not to run again simply due to age. However, if he does run, the nomination is his because the base voters are his. He can probably pick the nominee, though his power to so will not be overwhelming- that candidate would still face a fight from contenders.

Jeff Weimer said...

Three years is an eternity. One year ago we were looking at an actual comfortable Trump win.

Yancey Ward said...

For me, the nominee had better not be anyone who served any time in Congress, and I don't even want a governor at this point. Only outsiders to D.C. politics need apply for my vote. I could vote for DeSantis- he stood up strong against the Cookoo Clucks Karens, so he has that going for him.

Mr Wibble said...

I would guess that at least 40% of this is an attempt to keep the establishment candidates from trying to run. Trump sucks all the air out of the room.

pacwest said...

Is he much better at creating a spectacle, than he is at thinking soberly about a subject?

I don't know. Ask China, Russia, Mexico, Israel, or the common working man. They are probably better positioned to answer that question.

rcocean said...

Thank God Trump is back. The cruz hate was getting a little boring. Hopefully, Vance can find something in those tax returns and put Trump on trial and we can run him out of the USA! Nothing is too horrible for an Authoritarian who goes after his enemies without mercy!

rcocean said...

Its so boring talking about 2024. I'm more interested in 2028. Will kamala harris run? I think she has a chance.

rcocean said...

Off topic: it just struck me that Megan McCain is Jonah Goldberg without a penis. I assume.

rhhardin said...

Payback is his chief obsession

Trump derangement guys are not the best readers of Trump.

Mark said...

Rather than wondering about Trump, the better course of action would be to refrain from attacking potential candidates who are even arguably conservative, like Noem, Cotton, Hawley, Cruz, etc.

The squishes and frauds are fair game, like Sassy and Hogan.

Pence isn't going to run.

Skeptical Voter said...

Trump is a sort of force of nature; he's going to do what he's going to do until he decides to do something else--at which point he does something else.

Axio is hardly an accurate reader of the tea leaves in the GOP---but if it amuses Asio to play the game it's okay. It's also okay a four year old boy to sit in a mud puddle and play with his little thing---and means about as much as an Axio report.

I'll wait until 2024 to see what the Donald does--if anything.

independent said...

He's back to being a powerless clown. Prob will talk for over two hours. Bring your sleeping bag.

Mr Wibble said...

Is he much better at creating a spectacle, than he is at thinking soberly about a subject?

He can do both, and judging by his performance on issues like foreign policy and immigration over his administration, he did. The spectacle was how he built up support, and gave him room to maneuver, I think. He's the complete opposite of the establishment pukes on both sides, who like to play at being serious, sober statesmen while in reality are utterly incapable of any original or critical thought on the important issues.

Mark said...

it just struck me that Megan McCain is Jonah Goldberg without a penis

Isn't Jonah Goldberg also Jonah Goldberg without a penis?

Mr Wibble said...

Off topic: it just struck me that Megan McCain is Jonah Goldberg without a penis. I assume.

I'm not so sure Jonah has much of a penis either.

Although he certainly has bigger tits.

Mikey NTH said...

Reports say that the speech to be delivered...

I think I'll wait for the speech to be delivered first before commenting on it's impact.

Howard said...

I can feel the love

Tank said...

Payback is his chief obsession

More projection.

daskol said...

Wouldn’t it be awesome if we had a presidential election in 2024, and the outcome was actually mysterious now? Like what if the number of people who actually voted for a candidate determined the winner?

It’s a fucking fantasy. Maybe Trump is playing into that fantasy. I guess we’ll see when he gives his speech.

But you don’t blatantly and brazenly steal an election and then just let the voters choose the next president. That definitely doesn’t happen.

daskol said...

We’re a post-electoral democracy now. We are wise beyond the crowds. We can have a demented old coot in charge and still swagger bigger than those sad-ass Chinese, who still think in terms of taking names and kicking ass. We are past all of that. We are beyond it, better than it.

daskol said...

We are fucking awesome, and don’t let anyone pointing out that our drooling demented so-called President is illegitimate and our deep state more incompetent than they are scary, and they are scary, get you down. We’re fucking awesome.

rehajm said...

Without him they're lost like Jim Carey...

daskol said...

We have sailed right through the era of psephological improbability into the era of it’s fucking awesome to have a demented drooling old coot for President. We’re in the era of isn’t this fucking awesome?

Clayton Hennesey said...

SCOTUS would have to develop some interest in the Constitution for us to call 2024 an election, no?

Renee said...

I'm miss Trump, but he's too old.

Joe Smith said...

Kickin' ass and takin' names since 2015.

As many people have said...'What's the use of being able to say "Fuck you" if you never actually say "Fuck you."'

Probably too little too late but never a dull moment.

And the lefty media loooove it. Great for ratings.

rcocean said...

From reading that, I'd say Trump has lost Axios. when did that happen? I thought they were his biggest boosters. Guess when Trump has lost Axios - he's almost lost chuck schumer.

Gosh, was that too sarcastic?

Joe Smith said...

"I've got two longshot predictions:"

DeSantis, Noem, Grenell...any and all combinations would get my full support.

Put in Haley or Cotton or God forbid Sasse and I will be done with the party forever.

Joe Smith said...

"Off topic: it just struck me that Megan McCain is Jonah Goldberg without a penis. I assume."

Mighty big assumption to think that Goldberg has a cock or balls.

But he's always the first in line on the Lido deck for the midnight buffet : )

Browndog said...

Unless something drastically changes, and I don't see how it possibly can, I voted in my last Presidential election.

I get it. It's not raining.

Jamie said...

Honest question:

Is it, though?

Does Trump like being the center of attention MORE than he likes governing?
Is he much better at creating a spectacle, than he is at thinking soberly about a subject?


So what I hear you saying is, is Trump more of an egomaniac, or more of a show-off?

The "honest question" gambit. There are certainly ways to ask an actual honest question of your interlocutors, but this isn't one of them.

FWIW, though - I don't care if a politician is an egomaniac or a show-off as long as s/x/he does what s/x/he says s/x/he'll do, if I agree with those policies. Politicians are generally one or the other or both. That or they're colorless bureaucrats with a secret lust for power, as we're seeing now.

Spiros said...

Clarence Thomas is getting blasted today! Mr. Thomas claims that public confidence in the electoral process is extremely low. His problems are two fold: electoral malpractice and the degree to which ballot secrecy is being compromised. There is no denying that virtually all convictions for electoral fraud involve mail in ballots. And Biden would not have won without 50 million unsolicited mail in ballots. Moreover, there is the phenomenon of "carousel voting." In Russia (!!!), people send in their mail in ballots and then show up at the polling stations to vote again. This is called "carousel voting" and it virtually impossible for monitors to prove such voters cast ballots several times. I wonder if that happened here? The second issue is privacy. A significant number of mail in voters were bullied or somehow put under duress to cast their ballot for Biden. This is not right! Too bad it's too late for a random audit of votes.

Anyways, it kind of sucks that this election was so dirty. I would have preferred if Biden won fair and square because Trump is a miserable punk.

Robert Cook said...

"Honest question: Does Trump like being the center of attention MORE than he likes governing?"

Being the center of attention is ALL that interests Trump. Governing? What is that?

"Is he much better at creating a spectacle, than he is at thinking soberly about a subject?"

Hahaha! To ask the question is to answer it.

Balfegor said...

Re: Gahrie:

DeSantis is certainly the current front runner, but I don't know if I can be enthusiastic about him.

DeSantis, on the governance merits, should be a strong contender, but I think he has two fatal disadvantages.

First, the media has it out for him, and has skewed coverage of Florida's coronavirus response to a ridiculous extent (while running cover for Cuomo, whose response to coronavirus has been by turns inept, vacillating, and abhorrent). The fact that Cuomo enjoyed some of the highest coronavirus approval ratings, even compared to Democratic governors who did a far, far better job (e.g. Newsom, for one) demonstrates just how depressingly effective that kind of "journalism" has been at distorting peoples' perceptions of the relative performance of various officials.

Second -- and this is going to seem really shallow, because it absolutely is. But he has a kind of weak chin, and just doesn't look presidential. Maybe if he could sport an enormous moustache like Cleveland or Taft, or a big beard like Harrison, it could work (see how a beard has improved Ted Cruz's appearance -- not saying he looks good, just that he looks much more authoritative then when he was cleanshaven). But not in the 21st century. I wouldn't consider this, standing alone, fatal, but I think appearances are extremely important in presidential contests, and DeSantis starts out at a disadvantage as a result.

Gahrie said...

“DeSantis is certainly the current front runner, but I don't know if I can be enthusiastic about him. The worst part about the last four years was seeing people I thought highly of take cheap shots against Trump.”

Did DeSantis take a cheap shot against Trump? If so, I missed it.


Those were meant to be two different ideas. DeSantis doesn't excite me, and the people who used to excite me have pissed me off.

gadfly said...

If Axios is only half-right, how can anyone want such a person in charge of the country - ever again? He did nothing worthwhile in four years and claimed credit for every positive happening while denying responsibility for most major faux pas such as the SARS-CoV-2 virus spread resulting in half a million deaths. And while Trumpists cannot see the signs on the wall, he lied, cheated and broke the law in almost every imaginable way, culminating with his January 6 insurrection/coup attempt.

But not to worry, he will be in jail before 2022 has ended. His income taxes are now available to Cy Vance and the investigation into his business practices is heating up in the New York AG's office. Fulton County Prosecutor Fani Willis is assembling a Grand Jury to literally hear the evidence in Trump's attempt to illegally change Georgia votes. No Resolute Desk to hide under any more and he is being sued by lots of people and organizations according to WIKI.

God of the Sea People said...

Biden has been in office for over a month now and not a single leak. How is that?

Depends.

NCMoss said...

gadfly said ...

Many things without evidence; show your work next time.

J. Farmer said...

Republican Stockholm Syndrome. They've been fucked six ways from Sunday for so long all they have left are the emotional attachments to their abusers. I thought the support for Bush and McCain was dismaying, but the embarrassing lovefest for Sarah Palin was a harbinger of doom, an expression of the Republican id. I think the cultural left has made white identity politics inevitable, but what we have is southern white evangelical identity politics.

Joe Smith said...

"He did nothing worthwhile in four years..."

Not getting into wars and not droning American citizens used to be a good thing.

Most sane people want as little 'governing' as possible.

And speak more clearly next time...hard to understand you with that cock in your mouth.

Rt41Rebel said...

"DeSantis is certainly the current front runner, but I don't know if I can be enthusiastic about him. "

I'm not, and he's my Gov. The state of FL needs him. There is no upside to him being the sacrificial lamb in the next fortified POTUS election.

Jupiter said...

What "top Trump allies" would tell Axios, if they told Axios anything, would be "Go eat a plate of shit".

Temujin said...

Trump is not going to run in 2024, but he can still keep his position known only to himself. Those who would be king will have to think twice and make sure they're up for a real scrap potentially having to go up against Trump. What Trump can do is:

a) Be a Kingmaker. He does hold the power by virtue of 75 million people who just voted for him after the media, Big Tech, and the Government itself spent four years throwing everything they had at him. By comparison, Mitt Romney couldn't handle a story about his dog on his car. Whomever Trump blesses will be the next President.

b) Trump could run for Congress as a rep from Florida in 2022. We've discussed that here and it would prove to be highly entertaining.

c) He could simply focus back on his businesses and enjoy his life again.

gilbar said...

as we All know,
Jo Biden REPEATEDLY said Pres Trump was PERSONALLY responsible for the "400,000" covid deaths
Today, we've reached 500,000 deaths.... a 20% increase since President Biden TOOK office

Serious Question.... WHO is responsible for THOSE deaths?
A HUNDRED THOUSAND PEOPLE are DEAD; WHO besides President Biden COULD be responsible?

Browndog said...

Remember, DeSantis won his election by the narrowest of margins...to a crack head.

Mark said...

If Trump shows his face anywhere, for good or bad, he is going to suck all the oxygen out of the room.

And, sorry, despite what some think about support for him, people really do not like hangers-on. He had his time.

Now its time to move on.

Rick.T. said...

I've got two longshot predictions:

A) Richard Grenell (20%?)
——————
I’m good with that. He fights. Which makes DeSantis somewhat attractive as well as governing experience.

Rusty said...

Trump IS the Republican party. Get used to the idea.

gilbar said...

in 2024 former President Trump would be 78 years old...
OMG!
just Think how F*cked Up are country would be if we were STUPID Enough to vote in a 78 year old

Browndog said...

Trump IS the Republican party. Get used to the idea.

The Republican party has no power.

Laughing Fox said...

J. Farmer, somehow that "southern white evangelical identity politics" got a nice increase in votes from urban blacks and Latinos. What Trump offered was greater concern for the well-being of the nation as a whole--less war, less illegal immigration, more fair commerce, more employment up and down the scale. Oh, and also more rational foreign policy, with our allies holding up their ends, and with the US encouraging peace efforts that could actually result in countries cooperating.
I hope to see junior Republicans following that lead--and maybe even some Democrats.

gadfly said...

@Mark said...
Axios, a Washington Post production. Utilizing the same Washington Post reporting methods of "someone familiar with the situation" sourcing.

Axios Media Inc. was founded by Jim VandeHei, Mike Allen, and Roy Schwartz. VandeHei was a reporter for WaPo, Allen formerly worked as a journalist at Politico and Schwartz was a Politico financial guy. Axios' minimalist writing format is nothing like the overlong Washington Post articles.

As for sourcing, a quick google search got me this quote from Fox News:

"Sen. Bryce Marlatt, R-Woodward, is accused of forcefully grabbing an Uber driver and kissing her neck on June 26 while she drove him to a hotel, according to a law enforcement official."

Inga said...

“Trump IS the Republican party.”

The party of the Big Lie.

Jim at said...

He's back to being a powerless clown.

People without any power are ignored. Yet, you shitheads can't seem to stop talking about him.

Mark said...

Politico was founded by Washington Post guys.

Jim at said...

The party of the Big Lie.

A fucking leftist just wrote that. Without a hint of irony.

wild chicken said...

1. Trump does not want to be just another schmuck in the House of Representatives.

2. See #1.

Mark said...

Axios was founded by guys who used to hack for the Washington Post.

Their methods are Washington Post methods.

Yeah, but go ahead and argue. Whatever.

Andrew said...

After four years of Biden pounding the middle and working classes in the ass a Republican will run. Trump's real power will be the 2022 mid-terms. He will be a power broker in the party.

Who will be 2024 Repub candiddate? Who knows. AXios sucks dick.

Big Mike said...

Inga calls the Republicans the "party of the Big Lie".

readering said...

I've heard Orlando has some fine golf courses. Doubt Trump is planning much beyond that.

Meanwhile, Biden has had approval ratings his first month that Trump could only dream of.

Big Mike said...

Meanwhile, Biden has had approval ratings his first month that Trump could only dream of.

Really? Rasmussen gives Biden 50% approval, Trump's last Rasmussen poll gave him 51%.

BUMBLE BEE said...

Joe got caught with the n-word today. He and Kam are fuck ups and they'll be getting deeper. They can't help themselves. Trump, well, I like a man who grins when he fights. He does!

3john2 said...

Look for the "authorities" to surround CPAC and arrest attendees for conspiracy and insurrection.

Inga said...

Rasmussen, ha.

President Biden Job Approval Real Clear Politics

Inga said...

“Joe got caught with the n-word today.”

No he didn’t. Liar.

Francisco D said...

Howard said...I can feel the love

Please wash your hands afterwards Howard.

Francisco D said...



Blogger Inga said...
“Joe got caught with the n-word today.”

No he didn’t. Liar.


go to Breitbart and listen for yourselves.

Inga said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Inga said...


“go to Breitbart and listen for yourselves.”

I’ve seen the YouTube video, if you think you hear the n-word, you are drunker than usual.

lb said...

Joe Smith at 6:35....ditto. Thanks :))

I'm Full of Soup said...

I’d like to see a ticket with happy warrior types like Rick Grennell and Tucker Carlson.

Gahrie said...

1. Trump does not want to be just another schmuck in the House of Representatives.

2. See #1.


He doesn't have to be. As I said earlier you can Be Speaker of the House without being a member of the House.

Drago said...

“Trump IS the Republican party.”

Russia Collusion Dead Ender Truther Inga: "The party of the Big Lie."

Carter Page, russian spy or no?

LOL

Gunner said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Drago said...

Remember, Inga is a self-declared mind reader extraordinaire so if she claims something did or dud not happen, we should all probably pay attention.

Mind reading is how Inga knew Kavanaugh was a rape gang leader and also how she knows (to this day) the hoax dossier was verified.

Just ask her!

MadisonMan said...

And why should I believe Axios? (crickets)

Trump will be pretty old. He'll be Biden's age.

Gunner said...

I really don't feel like hearing about Stormy Daniels etc. for the next three and a half years.

Besides, if he let them steal a victory from him this time, how is he going to stop them from doing the same thing next time with less resources?

Gahrie said...

I've got two longshot predictions:

A) Richard Grenell (20%?)

——————
I’m good with that. He fights. Which makes DeSantis somewhat attractive as well as governing experience.


There is a really good chance that identity politics is going to be a big issue in 2024. Grenell is best positioned for that fight. Condoleezza Rice as his VP?

iowan2 said...


Inga said...
“Joe got caught with the n-word today.”

No he didn’t. Liar.


Technically Dementia Joe did not utter the word. He wanted to though. Its the thought that counts. (we are still operating under the rules you applied to President Trump)

Big Mike said...

@Inga, Rasmussen is the honest poll. The one not run directly or indirectly by Democrats.

iowan2 said...

wild chicken said...
1. Trump does not want to be just another schmuck in the House of Representatives.

2. See #1.


Congress critters have absolute immunity to say anything they wish from the floor of Congress

I could see Trump elected to the House. Freedom to roam, not required to do any actual work, unless he wants to. Lots of time to schmooze.

pacwest said...

What "top Trump allies" would tell Axios, if they told Axios anything, would be "Go eat a plate of shit".

Yes, I'm sure Axios would be the first choice of "top Trump allies" to leak to. LOL.

It really doesn't have any thing to do with good governance anymore does it? Biden? is in the process of lowering the wages of the bottom quintile, undoing ME peace deals, making sure the US is going to wind up on the bad side of trade deals, and lowering the standard of living for half the country, but...Hooray for our side! Nanananana. Weird.

Iman said...

Blogger Howard said...
I can feel the love!


Howard cries out for a reacharound... film at 11...

J. Farmer said...

@Laughing Fox:

J. Farmer, somehow that "southern white evangelical identity politics" got a nice increase in votes from urban blacks and Latinos.

The Republican Party is not just the president, and Trump is very atypical, to say the least. Yes, he improved on his performance with blacks and Latinos in 2016, but he still lost both groups by wide margins.

I hope to see junior Republicans following that lead--and maybe even some Democrats.

I hope so, too. I wish Trump had followed it. Even if he did, the president alone cannot enact such an agenda. He needs legislative support, and what he got was Ryanism.


On a more fundamental level, while I support showing "greater concern for the well-being of the nation as a whole," it's not clear that such a nation exists. The last expression of an Anglo-American nationalist agenda was the so called New Deal coalition that broke apart over racial issues in the 1960s. The race issue has divided and polarized white America ever since. The US operates much more like a multi-national empire than a nation-state.

Francisco D said...

Inga said...I’ve seen the YouTube video, if you think you hear the n-word, you are drunker than usual.

I am worried about you sweetie. You often confuse me with your Tinder dates who obviously have to be shit faced drunk to bump uglies with you.

Joe Smith said...

"Condoleezza Rice as his VP?"

Please God, no.

She is a total country club neocon, nation-building, go along to get along republican.

She is not conservative.

narciso said...

So tariffs were ryanism, so was the wall right, so was detente or whatever the korean variant is, youre just so full of it.

Curious George said...

"Could you imagine the sight of Pelosi handing over the gavel to Trump? She'd stroke out on the spot!"

Do strokes hurt? Like excruciating pain? Because I'm for that. Especially if it's a long drawn out excruciating pain. The longer and more excruciating the better.

J. Farmer said...

@Andrew:

After four years of Biden pounding the middle and working classes in the ass a Republican will run. Trump's real power will be the 2022 mid-terms. He will be a power broker in the party.

I think there's a couple of problems with this perspective. One, it relies on an excessively econometric kind of evaluation. GDP growth and market index prices are poor proxies for degerming the health of a nation. Two, it assumes that socio-economic conditions are a result of something the president has done or hasn't done. There are huge structural problems in the global economy that cannot be solved by the occupant of the White House, regardless of who it is.

stevew said...

Good.

Joe Smith said...

"There are huge structural problems in the global economy that cannot be solved by the occupant of the White House, regardless of who it is."

It doesn't matter who is responsible, it only matters who people want to blame.

That's what advertising is for...

Iman said...

There are huge structural problems in the global economy that cannot be solved by the occupant of the White House, regardless of who it is.

Perhaps not as far as the “global economy”, but the problems can certainly be mitigated to an appreciable extent. And they can be made much worse, as we will soon find out.

Kirk Parker said...

Big Mike, way back at comment #2:

Somehow you misspelled "2022".

Mark said...

There are huge structural problems in the global economy that cannot be solved by the occupant of the White House, regardless of who it is.

Sure some occupant can solve the problems. They can stop creating and exacerbating those problems. They can stop effing everything up and making things worse. Of course, none of the current regime of Democrats can do that, but others can.

J. Farmer said...

@Mark:

Sure some occupant can solve the problems. They can stop creating and exacerbating those problems. They can stop effing everything up and making things worse. Of course, none of the current regime of Democrats can do that, but others can.

That assumes that the "huge structural problems" are a consequence of the individual choices made by the president. Macroeconomic trends over the last several decades don't show much of a relationship with the political ideology of the president or Congress.

Ken B said...

Well so far pay-back is the principal concern of the Biden administration. Just look at Garland's priority for example.

I supported confirming Garland. I now think that was a misjudgment. He seems willing to embrace woke lies in the pursuit of vengeance. Not the kind of man to put on the Supreme Court.

Greg The Class Traitor said...

J. Farmer said...
There are huge structural problems in the global economy that cannot be solved by the occupant of the White House, regardless of who it is.

Wrong, as usual.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/trump-economy-mainstream-media-andy-puzder
Released two weeks ago, the Census Bureau’s report on “Income and Poverty in the United States” for 2019 clearly shows that, pre-pandemic, President Trump’s economic success blew past that of any other presidency.

First, the Census Bureau reported that real median household income grew to $68,703 in 2019, an impressive 6.8% increase over 2018. It was the largest one-year increase in median income on record going back to 1967. It was also 45 percent more growth in a single year ($4,379) than Obama/Biden produced in their entire 8 years in office ($3,021).

As was the case throughout Trump’s first three years, the economic benefits were widespread. While the overall growth rate was 6.8%, real median income grew by an even greater 7.9% for Black Americans, 7.1% for Hispanic Americans, and 10.6% for Asian Americans. All record highs as were the new income levels for each of these groups.
https://www.foxbusiness.com/money/wages-low-earning-americans-rising-fastest-pace-decade
Wages for rank-and-file workers are rising at the fastest pace in more than a decade, a sign that one of the tightest labor markets in recent history is beginning to incentivize employers to increase pay.

Pay for the bottom 25 percent of wage earners, who account for 82 percent of the population, rose 4.5 percent in November from the year-ago period, according to data published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. That’s the highest since July 2008. Wages for top earners, meanwhile, rose just 2.9 percent last month.

Good policies have good results.

Trump's the GOP frontrunner because he earned it. And Biden / Harris are just going to spend the next 4 years making Trump look better

Greg The Class Traitor said...

Jeff Weimer said...
Three years is an eternity. One year ago we were looking at an actual comfortable Trump win.

November 3 2020 we were looking at a comfortable Trump win

It was only when the Democrat vote fraud machines cranked up on Nov 4 that that changed

Daniel Jackson said...

He's Back?

He never went away.

It's going to get interesting just when I was convinced the opposition would be silent.

Interested Bystander said...

If he can get rid of some RINO senators and congressmen and scare the shit out the others then God bless him. Hope he does run again tho’. He would be 78. It’s time for new blood.

Balfegor said...

Re: readering:

Meanwhile, Biden has had approval ratings his first month that Trump could only dream of.

The polls were such garbage during the election -- overestimating Biden's margin in some states by double digits -- that trusting approval polls today seems a bit foolish. Certainly, election polls have to deal with a likely voter screen, so approval polls shouldn't be quite as bad, but I think you still have to assume some degree of systemic error (What degree? Who knows!) They're the only data we have, I guess, but it's garbage in garbage out.

J. Farmer said...

@Greg The Class Traitor:

Good policies have good results.

Trump's the GOP frontrunner because he earned it. And Biden / Harris are just going to spend the next 4 years making Trump look better
.

Puzder, a big Trump donor and former nominee for Labor Secretary, is being ridiculously over-the-top when he says "President Trump’s economic success blew past that of any other presidency."

What Puzder describes as "Trump's economic success" are a set of econometric measures on "income and poverty" published by the Census Bureau for 2019. But these numbers need to be taken with a grain of salt. They were derived from the CPS ASEC conducted during 2020 and was affected by the covid response. That's why the Census notes: "For 2020, the estimates are 2% to 4% lower than the survey estimates, reflecting the unique pattern of nonresponse in the 2020 CPS ASEC. In 2020, median household income is 2.8% lower and poverty is about a half a percentage point higher with the alternative weights...We estimate that real median household income increased by 4.1% from 2019 to 2020 (compared to 6.8% estimated from the survey data), and poverty declined by 0.9 percentage points (compared to 1.3 percentage points from the survey data)."

Also, "We redesigned income questions in the 2014 CPS ASEC for data year 2013, and updated the processing system in the 2019 CPS ASEC for data year 2018. That means some of the differences over time could be due to these recent survey improvements."

Now, even without Puzder's hyperbole, it's quite legitimate to say that income increased and poverty decreased in 2019, particularly for lowest quintile of wage earners. Part of that is undoubtedly the result of a tight labor market, but part of it is also due to the fact that numerous states have increased minimum wages over the last several years.

Speaking of states, does this same correlation to econometrics and "good policies" hold? In terms of median household income and poverty rates, New England performs much better than the South or the Midwest. Is that a result of those states having better economic policies?

Even ignoring the methodological issues, it's a basic fallacy to say that economic growth during the a president's time in office is a result of the president's "policies." It's hard to attribute the economic trends of 2017 to Trump's "policies" since most of them hadn't been implemented yet, and fiscal decisions for part of the year had been decided in the previous year. The tax cut was not passed until the end of 2017. The same is true for attributing 2009's trends to Obama's policies. Never mind whatever rolehuge fiscal deficits have played in all of this.

More fundamentally, econometric data does not tell you everything you need to know about the health of a society. Heath insurance rates have declined for the last several years, and inequality has worsened. Despite 40 years of economic growth, white middle-aged Americans without college degrees have experienced rising mortality due in part to alcohol, drug abuse, and suicide.

If economic growth is evidence of "good policies," then we've had "good policies" for decades.

Terry di Tufo said...

I think that’s a typo. Should be “vice grip”

Rusty said...

"and inequality has worsened." Inequality of what?
" Despite 40 years of economic growth, white middle-aged Americans without college degrees have experienced rising mortality due in part to alcohol, drug abuse, and suicide."
Poor life choices? They can afford alcohol and drugs? What a country. Less acohol and drugs would probably fix that suicide rate.
Everyone I know with a blue collar job is doing very well. My SIL is turning down jobs. He does a lot of store build outs. He's from Lebanon. His English is shit.

jim said...

If this keeps up there will be no Republican party in 2024.

jim said...

Agree with Rusty for once: my blue collar neighbors, and they are predominant here in central PA, are doing OK or better. And typically they have post high school training.

But, there are LOADS of people who fit the description: "white middle-aged Americans without college degrees have experienced rising mortality due in part to alcohol, drug abuse, and suicide." Many did not finish high school and drinking/drugs and whatever sex they can manage is just about all they've got, besides the kids they can't support.

jim said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
jim said...

From what I see around me, those hopeless people are about 50% of Trump's base. The rest of us, in my area, are about evenly split. Thus non-urban Pennsylvania's lean toward Trump.

How that split holds up over the next 4 years, with TrumpyQ madness still rampant and whatever Biden does is beyond me. My guess or hope is Republicans finally realize they hit an iceberg and start getting their act back together, while Biden plods along.

Achilles said...

Gahrie said...
I've got two longshot predictions:

A) Richard Grenell (20%?)
——————
I’m good with that. He fights. Which makes DeSantis somewhat attractive as well as governing experience.

“There is a really good chance that identity politics is going to be a big issue in 2024. Grenell is best positioned for that fight. Condoleezza Rice as his VP?“

Grenell yes.

Rice No.

Not as bad as Haley but close.

Achilles said...

“Everyone I know with a blue collar job is doing very well. My SIL is turning down jobs. He does a lot of store build outs. He's from Lebanon. His English is shit.“

People who do stuff will always be in demand.

The issue is how many people like hunter biden they will willingly support with their hard work.

Paddy O said...

Trump is the pyrrhic candidate. He won, gets a crazy amount of support, but in the long run seems to be opening the door to a lot more problems as he becomes a handy excuse for unethical responses. He's the candidate the Left needed to justify all their frantic responses.

Greg The Class Traitor said...

J. Farmer said...
@Greg The Class Traitor:
Me: Good policies have good results.
Me: Trump's the GOP frontrunner because he earned it. And Biden / Harris are just going to spend the next 4 years making Trump look better.

Now, even without Puzder's hyperbole, it's quite legitimate to say that income increased and poverty decreased in 2019, particularly for lowest quintile of wage earners. Part of that is undoubtedly the result of a tight labor market, but part of it is also due to the fact that numerous states have increased minimum wages over the last several years.


Really? So, which are the States that increased their minimum wages, and what was their growth compared to similarly situated States that didn't?

Speaking of states, does this same correlation to econometrics and "good policies" hold? In terms of median household income and poverty rates, New England performs much better than the South or the Midwest. Is that a result of those states having better economic policies?

Even ignoring the methodological issues, it's a basic fallacy to say that economic growth during the a president's time in office is a result of the president's "policies." It's hard to attribute the economic trends of 2017 to Trump's "policies" since most of them hadn't been implemented yet,


Wrong.

Trump inaugurated into office was immediately followed by a sharp drop in illegal "immigration" into the US, as people just stopped coming because they expected the US Government to no longer give them the free ride they got under Obama.

And wages immediately started going up for Americans without a college indoctrination.

Trump "built the wall" on day 1, simply by letting people know that the US Gov't was no longer on their side when they violated US Immigration law.

Trump announced early in his term is policy that Agencies had to nuke two regulations for every one they added.

The decrease in regulations took time. But the message to American business that the Federal Government was no longer working to screw them over had an immediate effect on businessmen trying to decide whether or not to expand.

Seeing better wage growth in "sanctuary States" would be an argument for Trump's impact: those are the places where the illegals were going to, when the Feds let them in. So those are the States where Americans would see the most benefit, since the Feds were no longer letting the illegals in

Jerry said...

TBH, I don't know if I want Trump to run. I feel like he's getting up to an age where it's... iffy.

On the other hand - if he picks a good VP (And again TBH I don't think Pence was a great choice, I think that DeSantis would be a lot better) I'd feel a lot better about it.

Because the DC swamp doesn't need to just be drained at this point - it needs to be nuked, and a whole lot of the 'Business as usual' crowd need to be fired no matter what the media may say about it.

Lurker21 said...

Vise grip bad. Republicans bad.

If Trump has an edge on the nomination he kind of earned it.

Biden had a "vise grip" on his party's nomination in 2020, but that was because he wasn't Bernie Sanders.

If there was more to it than that -- something that explained how everybody else dropped out almost overnight -- nobody really looked into it.

Actually, though, Trump doesn't have a "vise grip" on the nomination. He just has the inside track now. That could certainly change over the next four years.

PM said...

Everything he does, says, suggests, just eliminates any possible scrutiny of KamalJoe.

Gahrie said...

“There is a really good chance that identity politics is going to be a big issue in 2024. Grenell is best positioned for that fight. Condoleezza Rice as his VP?“

Grenell yes.

Rice No.

Not as bad as Haley but close.


If we plan on winning any elections anytime soon, the two wings of the Republican Party are going to have to learn to play together nicely. Rice as VP gives more cover against identity politics, appeases the GOP Establishment, and she can be put to good use internationally while Grenell concentrates on the domestic front. She has valuable contacts and relationships internationally, and I have never seen her as a never Trumper.

Achilles said...

Gahrie said...

If we plan on winning any elections anytime soon, the two wings of the Republican Party are going to have to learn to play together nicely. Rice as VP gives more cover against identity politics, appeases the GOP Establishment, and she can be put to good use internationally while Grenell concentrates on the domestic front. She has valuable contacts and relationships internationally, and I have never seen her as a never Trumper.

I am not trying to be overly combative. Just pointing some things out:

“The call is murky, it is really murky. I don’t like for the President of the United States to mention an American citizen for investigation to a foreign leader. I think that is out of bounds,” Rice told CNN’s Becky Anderson during a conference in Abu Dhabi, referring to Trump’s July 25 phone call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. "

-Condoleeza Rice

Rice is a swamp critter. She lived in DC for decades. Her entire life was built around the swamp.

I don't trust her. I don't trust anyone who opposes investigations into corruption. I think she would be a mole inside the administration leaking shit and causing disruption and undermining the will of the people.

She fed at the same trough as Biden.

Hercules, not that one though said...

People want to have a team. They want their team to win. At the beginning of this thing, we were warned about parties, factions.

It was supposed to be about governance. People lust after the trophy. We devolve back to the mean. King of the Hill. It was a beautiful dream.