Unsurprising email received this morning. This is the second time my scheduled appointment has been changed. Originally, I had a February 14th appointment. I had to reschedule and got March 1st, and now, today, I see I am bumped to March 29th.
I don't like this, but I do think I'm in a better position to weather the delay than a lot of other people. I only have priority because of age, and I'm not that old. I'm 70. I don't have any conditions that are causing me to worry, and I'm retired and easily able to avoid contact with other people. I want us all to get vaccinated, and my getting the vaccination is important to me, but it's also important to me that other people get vaccinated.
I'd like to see the world get going again, and that has more to do with people other than me getting their protection.
ADDED: Here's Anthony Fauci: "It may take until June, July and August to finally get everybody vaccinated. So when you hear about how long it’s going to take to get the overwhelming proportion of the population vaccinated, I don’t think anybody disagrees that that’s going to be well to the end of the summer and we get into the early fall."
They're managing our expectations with something approaching double talk. It may take until June... but everyone agrees that it won't be until the end of the summer and let me just float the phrase early fall.
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Airport conditions in Memphis, Fed Ex’s hub, are causing a lot of clinics to be rescheduled.
They dont want you to though
http://invisibleserfscollar.com/
I wonder if we could receive our vaccines from places other than the state if it would be going better. Honestly, this early in distribution, maybe not.
Still, I'm also healthy, not yet 40, and I already survived a first brush with COVID in December, so I'm fine being so far low in priority I'm not even on a waiting list here.
I'm retired and live on my own. My life won't change significantly until the economy reopens in a substantial way. I'd like to be vaccinated before that happens, but it doesn't really matter to me whether I get vaccinated 8 months before reopening or 8 days before reopening.
My physician pointed out immunity reaches about 80% 2-3 weeks after the first shot. As you point out you are in a better position to withstand the delay than others, especially those who've not had their first shot and are at risk for underlying medical conditions.
Did they give you any explanation for those "shortfalls in supply"?
Or are you expected to mentally put the blame on the vaccine companies.
Open house is the way to go, not by priority. Because it gets it out without bureaucrat friction.
about 60% of covid fatalities are to people OVER 80 years old
looks like about 12% of americans are Over 80 years old
if (IF!) we Really wanted to cut down deaths, we would have done THESE people FIRST
(we had MORE than enough vaccines to do that in January)
instead, we did nurses, pot store workers, stippers, news casters and politicians first
i wonder why?
"Did they give you any explanation for those "shortfalls in supply"?"
Here's the email message in full:
Dear UW Health Patient,
Due to shortfalls in the vaccine supply we received from the state this week, your COVID-19 vaccine appointment has been rescheduled to a different date. To view your new appointment details, cancel or reschedule, please log into your MyChart account.
To view your appointment details in MyChart, you can click on the Visits tab, or the Appointments icon in your MyChart mobile app. If you are not able to reschedule in MyChart, you can call (608) 720-5055 for assistance.
The supply of vaccine we have received from the state so far is just a small fraction of what we need to reach the patients we care for in our community. Because of that, we need to reschedule over 2,000 appointments this week. We know how frustrating and disappointing this news is. Like you, we are eager to get everyone vaccinated.
We are in daily contact with our state Department of Health Services to request an increase in our vaccine supply. While we are optimistic that the supply of vaccine will eventually increase, we have been told that non-health system vaccinators like pharmacies, local businesses, community organizations and pop-up vaccine clinics should play an increasingly large role in providing vaccinations.
At UW Health, our goal is to get our patients the COVID-19 vaccine as quickly as possible. Given the direction we have received from the state, we encourage patients to explore all options available for vaccination in our community. In addition to the available vaccination appointments at UW Health, we will provide you information on other local vaccinators as it becomes available.
If you do receive your vaccine from another vaccinator, please cancel your appointment with UW Health so we can schedule others in this time slot.
For the time being, however, please help us slow the spread of COVID-19 by:
Staying home as much as possible
Wearing a mask
Keeping a safe distance from others
Washing your hands frequently
Quarantining if you feel ill
We greatly appreciate your understanding and continued patience.
The Mequon drugstore is a small vaccine distribution point way out in the Milwaukee suburbs. People eligible to be vaccinated who signed up there two weeks ago are getting calls to come in and be vaccinated. Is it possible that increments from the whole government and bureaucracy of Wisconsin and their friends and relations plus all the teachers in Dane County and their friends and relations plus all the UWM faculty and staff and their friends and relations + (assorted people from Chicago) keep butting into your line? As far as I know, it isn't wrong for eligible people to sign up way out in the suburbs.
Washington isn't any better. Overlake Medical Center in Bellevue has no appointments scheduled after April 2nd. Trying pharmacies at Costco and Fred Meyer yields zero appointments. Same for other clinics. King Jay I has really screwed the pouch on this.
I, age 68, got my first shot last Monday.
The claims about the mind-control micro-chips are somewhat exaggerated, just keep your eyes a little wide and blank; show no interest or excitement, and you'll be fine.
The trend lines look very good. But the first rule of crisis management is that, just when you think you’ve got the problem under control, the really bad news starts to arrive.
One of the truly amazing things is how quickly the vaccine got from idea to arm.
Normally, once a company decides to produce a drug, it takes 3-5 years to get it up and running in commercial production.
Pfizer did it in 3-5 months, depending on when they started preparing for production.
As for delays in getting people vaccinated, if they were to produce a million doses a day, it will still take 2 years to produce enough to vaccinate the entire US. (2 doses X 335mm pop = 670 days). That assumes that there are no problems with anything in the production process and supply chain.
For those who don't know, a million doses a day would be a lot for any product of this type.
President Trump called it "warp speed" It is actually a lot faster than warp speed.
John Henry
I looked at my county's COVID statistics. 1/3 of deaths are those over 80. Nearly 75% are those 65+.
"As far as I know, it isn't wrong for eligible people to sign up way out in the suburbs."
Yes. You see what your directive says:
" we encourage patients to explore all options available for vaccination in our community. In addition to the available vaccination appointments at UW Health, we will provide you information on other local vaccinators as it becomes available.
If you do receive your vaccine from another vaccinator, please cancel your appointment with UW Health so we can schedule others in this time slot."
So maybe you are being a white traitor if you allow yourself to be put through what the black community is going through in terms of actual vaccine availability.
Almost 4 million vaccinations in Florida so far. That's pretty impressive.
rhhardin is TOTALLY RIGHT!
we should do an 'open house', where the vaccines go first come first served
That way, the people most able to go to the store will get it first
OF COURSE,
the people for whom covid is anything more than a cold, ARE SLOW and NOT able to go to the store
if we do it rhhardin's way, we'll be able to vaccinate 80% of the population without lowering fatalities AT ALL
wait a minute...
WHY WAS IT that we wanted a vaccine? oh yeah, it kills old people stuck in their houses
hmmm
I got my 2 vaccinations through Kaiser Permanente (HMO), no problem. Total time about 30 minutes each shot.
Which brings up the question, who else is getting bumped and do they need it right now due to chronic health conditions?
It has the smell of “bungled rollout” on it, eh?
Sounds like UW Health's allocation from the state was reallocated to other providers and you are being told to go find some yourself. If you can. Or wait.
What happened to keeping your old promises before making new ones to somebody else.
"Put that vaccine down! Vaccines are for wokesters only... I'm from downtown, I'm here from Joe and Kamala."
Gilbar:
I think you’re reading that graph wrong — the numbers are in millions, not percentages. So you need to divide by about 3.3.
First shot at UCSF.
Second shot at CVS
Why?
The university kept giving me the run around about when I could schedule the second dose.
As always, the private sector distributes better than idiot bureaucrats, and that most definitely includes universities.
And I agree with the above, the university is certainly vaccinating friends & family, politicians, bureaucrats before any "other" people.
Fuck them all.
Now I see the email you posted — so “yes” on the bungled rollout, it would appear.
All these pharmacies etc give flu shots to many many people every year — whose genius plan was it to *not* use them for this vaccine?
All these pharmacies etc give flu shots to many many people every year — whose genius plan was it to *not* use them for this vaccine?
>>
Roughly 2M/day for about 8 weeks during the prime time for fluvaxx.
Granted there actually are supply limitations on the RonaVax, but I've said from the beginning, use the pharmacies for distribution.
My CVS appt was easy, online, and run with precision.
My UCSF appt was not easy, not online and I was in line for 1.5 hours.
So..you could also get it (a)vaccine at one of these Madison Walgreens:
Madison, 2121 S. Park St.
Madison, 3700 University Ave.
Madison, 3710 E. Washington Ave.
Madison, 4518 Cottage Grove Road
Madison, 6601 McKee Road
Madison, 1725 Northport Drive
Madison, 2909 E. Washington Ave.
Madison, 606 S. Whitney Way
Madison, 7810 Mineral Point Road
Madison, 108 Cottage Grove Road
"Anyone who is eligible for the vaccine in Wisconsin can register at the Walgreens website, www.walgreens.com/findcare/vaccination/covid-19. Walgreens also plans to launch a call center for people who can't access a computer.
Those eligible groups include health care workers, nursing home and assisted living residents and staff, police, firefighters, corrections workers and people 65 and older.
The shipment is part of a federal program sending about a million doses to 6,500 retail pharmacies across the U.S. As supply ramps up, that number of participating pharmacies could reach 40,000, White House COVID-19 response coordinator Jeff Zients told the Journal Sentinel last week.
These doses are coming directly from the federal government and will not be taken out of Wisconsin's weekly allocation, according to a news release from the state health department. During the first week, Wisconsin will receive 17,800 doses of the Moderna vaccine, shipped directly to the Walgreens locations"
https://www.postcrescent.com/story/news/2021/02/11/wisconsin-walgreens-offer-covid-19-vaccine-appointments-list/6723929002/
Scott Adams has been talking a lot the past couple days about how rapidly India's kung flu cases are declining. I have seen some other reports as well. One of the things he and other reports don't mention is how low India's rates were to start with.
Deaths/mm US-1,513 India-114
Cases/mm US-85,647 India-7,886
From worldometers.info as of today
One would think that India would be a hotbed for the spread of any disease. How is India different from the US?
They take a lot of hydroxychloroquine. Like massive amounts since forever to protect against malaria.
They also take a lot of ivermectin to ward off river blindness, roundworm and other parasites.
It might be pure coincidence, of course.
Nigeria has very high consumption of hydroxychloroquine. Almost all the population takes it every Sunday. I didn't find specific info Ivermectin for Nigeria but Merck donates billions of doses to African countries and it seems widely used across the continent for river blindness and various parasitic infections.
Nigeria has 714 cases/mm and 9 deaths/mm
There would be good reasons to be skeptical about accuracy of both statistics, particularly Nigeria. But I think they are indicative that both countries are doing far better than the US.
John Henry
A bad flu year. We have ruined our economy and education system by overreacting to a bad flu bug. UPI (motto surprise we are still in business) reports you are 1.5 times as likely to be hospitalized for C-19 as for the average seasonal flu, which we recorded zero cases of last year. Are we really going to be so risk-intolerant in the future? Life is full of risks so much greater than C-19. This was all just a dry run to practice their “emergency” powers and we all fell in line like trained seals. This “emergency” will simply be superseded by Joe’s next trick. Will it be the “climate emergency” or the “whiteness emergency” or some new shiny object of fear to mesmerize us? Who knows? But it will BE. You can count on it.
Matt,
Do you have "comorbidities"?
Hard to see why you would need a vaccine after already having it.
I get my second shot next Monday. There doesn't seem to be as much demand for the second shot as the first and the location has been moved. I'm not sure what is going on there, inadequate publicity?
The cities and hospitals of Clay County Missouri pooled their vaccine allocations and hold massive vaccination events at the Cerner headquarters in North Kansas City which is currently mostly empty due to its associates working remotely. This smoothed out availability from place to place, minimizing registration shopping for appointments.
In turn, maximizing getting through each priority level uniformly so that we can move on to lower levels sooner without missing too many higher priority people stuck registered at sites with fewer shots available than elsewhere. My wife and I were bowled over by how well organized and smoothly run the whole process has been.
I'd like to see the world get going again, and that has more to do with people other than me getting their protection.
Some people are going to be shocked when it turns out this vaccine does not lead to a return to normal.
I got my first dose of the vaccine at a county vaccination site which was being coordinated and managed by a large hospital organization. I get my second dose in three weeks.
To say that I was impressed would be an understatement. They were doing hundreds of shots every hour and I was in and out in 30 minutes. That included the 15 minutes I had to wait to see if I had any serious reaction.
It was a well oiled machine. They had me checked in by the time I got out of my car in the parking lot.
I've gotten my annual flu shot before at CVS and there was no comparison. CVS was like going to the Motor Vehicle Bureau. My county site was like a modern motor vehicle assembly plant.
If government could run everything like they did this center, I might consider voting for a Democrat.
Lucien said...
Gilbar: I think you’re reading that graph wrong — the numbers are in millions, not percentages. So you need to divide by about 3.3.
Lucien is Right, there are EVEN less people in the country over 80 ...
which means that there's EVEN LESS excuse for us not to vaccinate them
if there are only 12.8 million people IN THE WHOLE COUNTRY that are over 80,
and MOST of the fatalities are people over 80
And we've Already vaccinated tens of millions of people... WHY haven't we vaccinated all the people over 80 already?
Of course scheduling your appointments online and getting email updates is white privilege. Just ask Biden who basically said the other day that BIPOCs are too ignorant to do this for themselves.
Go with the pharmacies. We are UWHealth patients and our appointments got rescheduled so we got our first vaccine last week at a pharmacy within 20 miles of our home. The pharmacies get their vaccines directly from the federal government, but the states control the other vaccines.
"I want us all to get vaccinated"
You can't always get want you want.
The rna vaccine requires supercold temperatures, florida has vaccinated 4 million people whats wisconsins excuse, you have william hickeys zombie corpse as l governor.
Some places are finding people missing appointments, so they're overbooking appointments like airlines do. In return people are getting more than one appointment.
I used to be a believer in the flexibility, adaptability, and resilience of modern society, but I now realize if this were a really dangerous virus we’d all be dead.
Florida has ramped up considerably with various county health departments, the VA, Publix Markets, and soon Walmarts giving shots. The principal problem in my area of FL has been the availability of people to give the shots and empty parking lots that are large enough. That's smoothing out now and vaccine availability seems to be ramping up. My second shot is scheduled for 1 March at a county health department drive up clinic that is very efficient moving large numbers of cars through the parking lot of an empty Amazon distribution center using National Guard to control traffic. Took all of 30 minutes for the first shot. VA is using American Legion lots, etc. Regular hospitals and clinics do not have room or staff to deal with the extra patient load, so other organizations are adlibing and it seems to be working well now. Florida's problem is exacerbated by the large number of people over 65, plus snow birds from up north.
Thats stupid why are they missing appointments its not on their calendar.
Tough to get in Madison, because all the virtual teachers are jumping in line to get their shots despite no contact with kids.
My wife and I received my second COVID jab (Moderna) on schedule on February 16th, exactly four weeks after the first jab. Our program was administered by the State of Florida.
We are both in the 65 - 70 age cohort. Don't move here though.
Alligators. Florida Man. Save yourselves.
More of that civility
https://dailycaller.com/2021/02/17/tim-miller-nicolle-wallace-donald-trump-blow-up-buildings-erase-memory-casino/
I want to see vaccinations stepped up where I live and I want to see as many people get it as possible as soon as possible. Not because I fear the illness (I don't--if immune people as individuals got special treatment, I would have deliberately infected myself last spring), but because I want to live in a functioning society again and, whether you or I may think it is necessary to beat COVID to accomplish that, our system believes it is necessary.
Why hasn't the Biden Adm approved the JNJ vaccine? Only one dose. No heavy duty refrigeration required.
Pure incompetence. Impeach!!!
We should have the vulnerable population by april 1. After that, exactly what is the goal?
Look at the people they put in chargevapparatchiks like levine and palm. They dont want to fix anything
Were any young, healthy Wisconsin teachers vaccinated?
Oh, and you can thank Andrea Palm for Wisconsin's rocky vaccination start. I was on an early call where she tried to blame chain pharmacies for not doing their part and was met vociferously from the pharmacy reps explaining how they had been requesting doses for weeks from Palm without response. Rollout improved dramatically once she was PROMOTED to the Biden Administration. Isn't government anti-meritocracy swell?
What I said then, was that it was nice that a vaccine had gotten emergency approval, but it would not be until mid-2021 that most working-age Americans could get vaccinated. Just as the experts had predicted. The experts who were sneered at by the Trumpists.
No, "the experts" were predicting that developing a vaccine would take at least 12-18 months. Given that the project started last spring, it would likely, according to expert Dr. Fauci. be completed this spring or fall. Look outside. It's not spring yet, let alone fall.
If anything goes wrong with the vaccine you can still blame Trump.
California is still working out diversity equity inclusion so half the vaccines are in warehouses while they fine tune the details.
Trump left Biden with no vaccines. And busy no doses I mean 50 million doses.
And Trump had no plan. Under Trump one million a day we’re getting vaccinated; Biden realized it was better to vaccinate one hundred million in one hundred days. (Even as production capacity increases)
Fauci is asshole. Biden is suggesting mask wearing, sorry double mask wearing, into next year. They rather like the virus especially the “variants” each with their own name.
My first shot was at the end of a very long line at Mercedes Benz stadium in Atlanta. Three or four hundred people in the queue. I counted 15 African Americans. In a city more than half black in a location close to the center of town. This is a very bad sign for herd immunity.
I'd like to see the world get going again, and that has more to do with people other than me getting their protection.
Maybe I am being incredibly dense - and that has been known to happen - but as there is a significant portion of the populace that has no intention of getting vaccinated, does it therefore follow the world will not get going again?
I have taken a laissez faire approach to this pandemic without adverse consequences. I will get my vaccine because my wife will make life intolerable if I don't. Otherwise, I have already 'gotten going' and the rest of the world is free to catch up when and if it cares to.
Don't let perfect become the enemy of good.
Althouse
Here in Ga the pharmacies as well as Niversity hospitals offer the vaccine. You may be waiting in the wrong line.
Biden is barely aware of what day it is, you wouldnt put those hacks in charge of a lunch line.
Hell of a "system". This hunger games model is so American. Just like apple pie.
Chuck @ 8:21: “....Thank you very little.” Not sure why you feel compelled to relitigate this point. But it looks to me as if you’re moving the goal posts. By “mid-2021” I think what people want is completion of vaccination for pretty much the whole population. Which, knock wood, may happen. But that is only possible because the vaccines were designed, tested, approved, produced in bulk and distributed across the population: most of those steps occurring months and months and months before “mid-2021.” The criticism of Trump’s work was that those steps mostly won’t even have started until mid-2021: which is obviously not correct.
How about being less sour grapes and more grateful for all the hard work by a lot of people we’ve never even heard of?
Ken B said..."Were any young, healthy Wisconsin teachers vaccinated?"
Short answer, yes. Confirming what I said at 8:27 -- "... the second and third highest portion of the vaccines delivered have gone to those 35-44 and 25-34, who have received 13 percent and 12.5 percent of vaccinations, respectively."
Biden wakes up everyday and asks Jill "Where are we??". You really expect THAT to run this country??
Hey, Joe Biden... wise up with Ami Horowitz here...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yW2LpFkVfYk
Might, just might catch a clue.
I note that one of the coffee shops I use is letting the almost-next-door pharmacy user their floor space (not used at present because of County Rules) as a waiting space after shots.
I wonder if you could get a shot at Neuhauser's. I have a physical next month. I wonder what the doc will say to me re: COVID.
"It may take until June, July and August to finally get everybody vaccinated . . . that’s going to be well to the end of the summer and we get into the early fall"
So says Dr. Fauci, scientist. June, early fall, what difference, at this point, does it make?
It's been stated multiple times in this thread, but...my wife and I are 3 weeks past our 2nd vaccine now- in Florida. It's getting done here, steadily. And, unlike the rest of the country, our businesses are still operating, kids are in school. And it's so warm today I'm back in shorts. I'll send photos later. Ocean blue shorts. I'm sure Althouse would approve.
Open house is the way to go, not by priority. Because it gets it out without bureaucrat friction.
I agree with this concept. first come first serve no appointments. Triage the line. Those with comorbidities get a Doctors script, move to the front of the line. Then its raw date of birth. the 40 year old shows up at 2AM and no one is there, he gets a shot.
I’ve asked a few Lyft riders I felt comfortable with “let me ask you something” introduction. “Are you going to get the shot?” to guys and “are you going to get the vaccine” to women. The unanimous response has been “undecided” “wait and see”, “I’m healthy”, ”I get the flu shot every year and I still get the flu sometimes”, “I don’t know, I’m not rushing to be first in line, I know that much”. “They say there’s another stronger virus coming is the vaccine going to be good for that one too?”
They seem to have more questions than answers. Getting the vaccine should be the final answer. But it doesn’t seem that way when they say that even after you get vaccinated you still have to mask up wash your hands and keep your distance.
As for me, I’m going to wait until I’m compelled to get it, with the threat of losing my ability to earn my living.
I just got rescheduling from Feb 25 to Mar 25.
Heck of a job, Joe.
"My foot is a size 7. But size 8 shoes are so comfortable, I buy myself 9s"
If POCs don’t want the shot, that’s their choice. Yes, the resulting tragedy will be blamed on White Medicine, and POCs’ reluctance will be justified as Reverse Tuskegee, deep pagan distrust of racism-suffused technology. It’s a loser attitude but what can you do? Sauve qui peut.
Dementia Joe is already floating the idea of no return to normal until 2022. This despite the crashing rate of new cases. I’m guessing they will try to keep this going at least through the midterm elections.
My parents got both shots. I drove across state and through winter storms in the dark three times to get them both their two shots. I felt incredibly powerful and happy the whole time I was driving, and it took a lot of the stress of the horrible roads off my mind.
My mom and dad do go out, but my dad thought people who "do important things in the world" should get their shots ahead of him. I explained to him that if he got it, his illness would likely be so much worse and that would be hard on the medical system and on the family. So he got his shot.
Go get your shot, Althouse. You aren't so old, but if you or Meade got it, it would be hard on all of us.
MayBee @ 9:00: Well done.
I’m the same age as Ann, and have an underlying health condition, but in Oregon no 65-75-year-olds are being vaccinated because our idiot Governor decided to give first priority to the members of the teachers unions. Does that at least mean that the schools are open? Of course not.
First vaccine shot 3 weeks ago. Second shot this weekend at CSUN mega pod 3. This was a drive through site. Very quick and efficient.Impressive. Got the appointments through the LA county public health department web site. I hope that AA gets her shots soon
I feel like I've made a mistake by calmly relying on my clinic appointment.
Biden and harris were pushing vaccine denialism not that long ago, you think it didnt stick among a cohort of the population?
It's hard to manage expectations when people are demanding and immature and the issue has a high degree of uncertainty.
You Can't Handle the Truth
"Triage the line. Those with comorbidities get a Doctors script, move to the front of the line. Then its raw date of birth. the 40 year old shows up at 2AM and no one is there, he gets a shot."
Males first. For some reason, we are nearly twice as vulnerable.
Doug said…Maybe I am being incredibly dense - and that has been known to happen - but as there is a significant portion of the populace that has no intention of getting vaccinated, does it therefore follow the world will not get going again?
The world could get going again right now, with no adverse effect. I work in manufacturing in the energy, construction, and steel supply chain. So we had exemptions since the first lock down. Other than hand sanitizer by the time clock for hourly people, we’ve really done NOTHING. We had one person “get it” outside of work…no one else.
Point is, there is a huge portion of the population that has been “getting going” this whole time. If they didn’t your lights would go out and you would be able to have things shipped to your house by Amazon. It’s a political pandemic, and a political vaccine.
Meade said...Males first. For some reason, we are nearly twice as vulnerable.
By all means dude, you can have my dose. Get four shots. Just trying to help. Altruism you know. I'll take my chances with beer and cigarettes.
Fauci's his name, double talking is his game.
Facts and circumstances change as this thing evolves, so you can expect different stories.
Fauci has survived a long time as government bureaucrat---I can't think of many senior government administrators other than Hyman Rickover who lasted to 80. So a certain amount of wily weaseling is expected from those who survive.
But the difficulty with Saint Anthony is that he believes his words are written on stone tablets--until they are not. Tough to erase the memory of those tablets. He's just another party hack. And he's as fond of the camera as is David Hogg.
I feel like I've made a mistake by calmly relying on my clinic appointment
Don't sweat the petty stuff and don't pet the sweaty stuff.
You made the best decision with the information available.
We aren't yet 65 so we are down the list a bit. But I already had covid once, no big shakes. Some say (no proof) that immunity only lasts 3 to 6 months so I'm at the 3+ month mark. I have rarely been knocked back by respiratory infections, and covid was no different, so I go about my day as usual. I'm going to be OK, everyday more of the vulnerable are protected. Case rates are crashing, epidemiologist are silent. That silence is deafening.
Blogger Douglas B. Levene said...
I’m the same age as Ann, and have an underlying health condition, but in Oregon no 65-75-year-olds are being vaccinated because our idiot Governor decided to give first priority to the members of the teachers unions
I am 100% in favor of sticking mRNA in the ass of every singe member of the teachers unions as many times as possible.
But leave the kiddies alone. The mRNA is still experimental, and injecting it into children is immoral.
How's Joe doing again?
I thought he was 'following the science'?
There's a phrase that needs to die faster than granny in a Brooklyn nursing home.
P.S. Unemployment is shit. How is Joe fixing it?
The trend lines look very good. But the first rule of crisis management is that, just when you think you’ve got the problem under control, the really bad news starts to arrive.
The really bad news was installed in the White House. Trends indicate America will now get it Good n’ Hard.
"Calypso Facto said...
Tough to get in Madison, because all the virtual teachers are jumping in line to get their shots despite no contact with kids."
But plenty of contact with friends according to my facebook feed. Them and state workers. Party city.
Blogger Jersey Fled said...
To say that I was impressed would be an understatement. They were doing hundreds of shots every hour and I was in and out in 30 minutes. That included the 15 minutes I had to wait to see if I had any serious reaction.
The military knows how to do this.
I got perhaps 75 vaccinations in Basic training 1967. We and our sister company, perhaps 150-200 guys would be marched to the vaccination station and basically walk through getting asked about allergies, checked on a list and get a shot, or two, sometimes in each arm at the same time, pausing only momentarily at each station. Probably didn't take 15 minutes.
It took longer for the few shots in the ass. Form up, open ranks, drop trou and skivvies, bend over. Then three peckercheckers would walk down the rows. First would hand a syringe to the second who would plant it and hand it to a third. Still probably took no more than 20-30 minutes.
John Henry
Althouse wrote: "I want us all to get vaccinated"
Thoughts and prayers. Hope you can get it as fast as possible.
But...what about the people who know COVID is all political bullshit and don’t want to march in this mRNA parade? Force them? Punish via exclusion from commerce, travel, public events?
Show us your papers….
How far does this want go? A year from now are we injecting mRNA in infants? If you're elderly and want to get it…go ahead. That's great. But ethically we should wait until more long term observation and data are available to mRNA the kids.
The top men
https://townhall.com/tipsheet/cortneyobrien/2021/02/18/rich-azzopardi-ron-kim-n2584912
But...what about the people who know COVID is all political bullshit and don’t want to march in this mRNA parade? Force them? Punish via exclusion from commerce, travel, public events?
I'm not getting the vaccine until I'm frog marched up to the needle.
Next question?
https://computingforever.com/
I've been checking the CDC site daily to keep track of the vaccination rate. So far nationally we've been averaging well under a million first doses a day (see the little chart below).
As of yesterday, we're at around 40 million people who have recieved at least 1 dose, 72 million have been produced and 56 million doses have been delivered (meaning that around 16 million people have recieved 2 doses). Simple math indicates that there's 72 - 56 = 16 million doses still waiting to be delievered. That's a pretty huge number, yet I keep hearing about vaccination sites running out of doses all over the country. Obviously there's something going on with distribution. Clearly somewhere there's a bottleneck or bottlenecks in terms of allocation and logistics in general but it's not clear to me where.
Date,One-or-More-Doses,Increase from Previous Day
02/01/2021,26023153,0
02/02/2021,26440836,417683
02/03/2021,27154956,714120
02/04/2021,27905197,750241
02/05/2021,29078080,1172883
02/06/2021,30250964,1172884
02/07/2021,31579100,1328136
02/08/2021,32340146,761046
02/09/2021,32867213,527067
02/10/2021,33783384,916171
02/11/2021,34723964,940580
02/12/2021,35834855,1110891
02/13/2021,37056122,1221267
02/14/2021,38292270,1236148
02/15/2021,38981410,689140
02/16/2021,39670551,689141
02/17/2021,40268009,597458
the issue has a high degree of uncertainty
What is uncertain? This virus has responded exactly like all of them.
We knew in March 2020 the most vulnerable were those with a short, defined list of comorbidities. In response to that science, we closed playgrounds, churches, state parks and schools. And we moved elderly covid positive patients into nursing home.
As if today, I still have no idea of what the stated goal is. Oooops! Fauci did tell me. paraphrase. 'I have no opinion about the science of opening schools, but my medical advice is we must pass the Biden covid recovery package.'
Nice statement from Bidens lead science officer.
Blogger Ken B said...
Trump left Biden with no vaccines. And busy no doses I mean 50 million doses.
When did Pfizer start manufacturing the vaccine, Ken? December? Once manufactured, how long does it take for the release testing process? I hear 3-4 weeks. Not because of lab delays, that is how long you have to wait for it to incubate or something.
How many doses a day are Moderna and Pfizer producing between them? I have 40 years of experience working with designing, building and operating sterile manufacturing facilities. You think it is quick and easy. Typically it takes years from the time the decision is mad till the facility is up and running. Assuming you already have a suitable building to put it in.
And how many doses have any of Her Majesty's Canadian Subjects produced? You want to complain about American vaccines? Go make your own.
I think we should make 750mm doses for Americans before we send any anywhere else.
John Henry
The Johnson and Johnson vaccine will be available soon, albeit in short supply. It is a non-mRNA one-shot vaccine. They [experts] are already saying that these new vaccines will be obsolete by the end of the year and new ones will be issued. :-( I'll just take my chances without one.
Kamala was lamenting that there was no federal distribution plan beyond getting the vaccine doses to the states, and that it was left to the states to apportion out efficiently from there. She actually thinks the federal govt would be able to reach into the states and distribute the doses more efficiently than the governors of those states. Some governors are not so great as it turns out, but my guess is the not so great cases are what we’d all be coping with, if it were federally executed. I like hearing about the innovative and efficient ways the states are getting it done. Surprised to hear there’s an empty Amazon distribution center somewhere, though!
"Tough to get in Madison, because all the virtual teachers are jumping in line to get their shots despite no contact with kids."
Yes. It is a bit irritating. But pretty soon all the teachers will be vaccinated and we can get back to vaccinating the people who are at greater risk. I checked, just now, what groups are being vaccinated in three different states, WI, WV, and MD.
WI: Teachers are not on the list of those who are supposed to be vaccinated in Wisconsin at this point in time.
MD: "Residents and staff of nursing homes and assisted living facilities, health care workers, first responders, teachers and people with developmental disabilities and high-risk incarcerated people."
WV: "Teachers and other school workers age 50 and over."
All three states are currently vaccinating everyone 65 years and older. This implies that everyone 70 and older, that was willing to get the vaccine, should have already been vaccinated in all three of these states.
From what I understand of the relative risks for different groups, the only people other than those who are 65 and older that should be vaccinated at this point in time are:
a) nursing home workers;
b) health care workers;
c) the "clinically extremely vulnerable" (this should be less than 2% of the population).
I wonder how many people who fill orders and stuff boxes via the Amazon Portal have been vaccinated? I'll bet it's a chicken shit number.
But...there's money to be made and revenue to generate. Smart bulbs to deliver...
It really is white privilege to be able to isolate, quarantine, and afford food.
Stay safe everyone. Godspeed. Thoughts and prayers....
Very convenient
https://www.breitbart.com/clips/2021/02/16/fauci-i-prefer-not-to-comment-on-gov-cuomo-mishandling-coronavirus/
My original prediction (I'm sure I posted it here last spring or summer) was that there would be a vaccine but it would arrive too late to really make a difference. Thanks to Operation Warp Speed, I was so wrong. But, like a Twilight Zone twist, the vaccine got here in time to actually make a difference but our Top Men couldn't figure out how to poke people in the arm. So now I am back to believing that for most of the normies not in a protected class (like teachers and cops) the vaccine will still arrive to late to really make a difference.
It's also important to understand how it happened and to hold those responsible accountable. Last Summer the Trump Administration announce: "The vaccines are coming. Get the ready to vaccinate your citizens! We do not have time to fiddlefuck."
So then what happened, the left, lead by Kamala Harris and supported by the media went on a anti-vaxx conspiracy campaign. Instead of getting ready, the democrats were peddling conspiracy theories and stoking paranoia. Guess what? No one was ready to vaccine their citizens. People died. Shrug.
Did we have another 9/11 yesterday on Joe's watch?
Where are the counters on the news networks showing all the deaths in real-time?
Ann:
I feel like I've made a mistake by calmly relying on my clinic appointment
Let's do a little math here.
Over the last year plus fewer than 8% of the population has tested positive for Covid.
In your cohort, fewer than 5% who caught the disease succumbed to it.
Soooo... 8% x 5% = 0.4% chance over a time period of one year.
But you only have to wait about 2 months, so in order to keep it simple let's just divide that by 6.
0.4 ÷ 6 = 0.07%
That puts your odds of dying of covid before you get vaccinated at less than 1 in 1000.
Feel better?
Of course, I could be wrong.
Blogger Nonapod said...
72 million have been produced
If they started in early December, that is about a million doses a day. That is one hell of an impressive number for an industry that is still in ramp up mode. It's a hell of a number for even a mature product.
John Henry
There have been effective, inexpensive, low-risk treatments since the beginning of the pandemic that would reduce hospitalizations, reduce deaths, and deny safe sactuaries for viral spread and disease progression. Vaccines are part of a risk management protocol, not magical elixirs without side-effects and with perfect performance. Inoculation through natural infection is more likely to produce viable, broad-based immunity.
>>Ann Althouse said...
I feel like I've made a mistake by calmly relying on my clinic appointment.<<
You did indeed. Proactive is the name of the CovVax game, believe me.
My friend in Dallas was among the first to get vaccinated there. They were just doing health care workers, nursing homes, etc at first. He went to the pharmacy and told them he was a bookkeeper at a nursing home (he's a retired dentist); they asked no questions and he got his shots immediately.
I started aggressively pursuing this months ago. I called up two hospitals where I have had procedures (which now consider me one of their patients) to inquire and to remind them that I exist. I signed up for VA medical system for the first time in 45 years since my discharge. I hounded the county with inquiries and they signed me up. I hounded Walgreens. As soon as the vax arrived in the state I received solicitations to schedule shots from all of them but Walgreens. Got my second shot last week. One more week and I come out of my cave. (BTW, I live in California - which cannot possibly be less FUBAR than Wisconsin.)
Blogger D.D. Driver said...
the vaccine got here in time to actually make a difference but our Top Men couldn't figure out how to poke people in the arm.
The producing was done by private industry. The poking (and distribution) is done by govt.
The disparity in efficiency is probably just a coincidence.
John Henry
Some governors are not so great as it turns out, but my guess is the not so great cases are what we’d all be coping with, if it were federally executed.
Yeah, the problem is clearly distribution rather than production. And certain states are far better than others in terms of getting the doses out. But I strongly suspect a Federal distribution system would be far worse overall.
Alaska, New Mexico, Connecticut, and West Virgina are all doing quite well with something like 14 - 18% of their populations have reicieved at least 1 dose. Conversely Rhode Island, Georga, Utah, and Tennessee are all below 10%.
We would be in a better position if they hadn’t delayed approval as part of their “election fortification” efforts.
Here in Center Mass, the poking is a volunteer effort run by the medical community. Since I volunteered to help out, they pay me with a jab.
Quit bitching and become part of the solution.
why do we need to get EVERYONE vaccinated? The only people who need it are (1) old people (2) people with special conditions and (3) healthcare workers.
We don't need 100% vaccination. We don't need 50% or even 25%. but then, what is the point of even trying to discuss it? You got liberals, and women, who just want to do whatever the "ex-burts" tell them, no matter how stupid and obviously wrong it is.
Political correctness is slowing it down for sure. We'd have better results doing first come first serve and incentives for high throughput.
Notice how the CV-19 death count disappeared the minute Biden got inserted into the Presidency? How many people died of CV19 last week. Its hard to find. Before it was EVERYWHERE.
Vaccination in norther AZ is shockingly well run. It's all coordinated by a drug rehab organization, and they are beyond competent.
I wonder how many people who fill orders and stuff boxes via the Amazon Portal have been vaccinated? I'll bet it's a chicken shit number.
It is still unknown if the vaccine prevents transmission.
John Henry: "The producing was done by private industry. The poking (and distribution) is done by govt.
The disparity in efficiency is probably just a coincidence."
Bears repeating.
"As of yesterday, we're at around 40 million people who have received at least 1 dose, 72 million have been produced and 56 million doses have been delivered (meaning that around 16 million people have received 2 doses)."
So in other words 12% of the US population has already been vaccinated. And if we can just complete the delivery of the number of vaccines that are just waiting to be delivered that percentage will rise to 22%.
To put that in context, the EU, which is similar to the US in size and technical abilities is at about 4%.
Twelve percent versus four percent, we are actually doing pretty well.
The reason for the difference would seem to be Trump's Operation Warp Speed, and the EU's apparently irresistible tendency to centralize everything in the hands of an all-powerful and incompetent bureaucracy.
“Anyone who is eligible for the vaccine in Wisconsin can register at the Walgreens website, www.walgreens.com/findcare/vaccination/covid-19. Walgreens also plans to launch a call center for people who can't access a computer.”
Except that Walgreens only has a limited amount of vaccine that it gets from week to week , same as the health care providers. In my area in Waukesha County Walgreens website which I sign onto daily always comes up with the message “No vaccines available for the next two weeks”. My healthcare provider says to wait until they give you an “invitation” to schedule the vaccine on your My Chart page. There just isn’t enough vaccine to give to everyone who is lucky enough to get scheduled. There are no sign up lists or waiting lists.
While I want to see my grandkids face to face again, I’ll wait with thousands of others my age. I do know of a couple who are 77 years old and the husband has diabetes who got their first shot a couple of weeks ago. Those are the only people I know in Waukesha County who have gotten their “invitation” through their health care provider. No one I know anywhere has gotten through to Walgreens to schedule, yet. Meijer’s is also offering the vaccine, but is in the same boat as Walgreens.
"The Johnson and Johnson vaccine will be available soon...”
It’s less effective, but if it were widely distributed to those with less risk, saving the more effective ones for people at greater risk of hospitalization and death, it would knock the pandemic on the head. Once R0 is below one, the thing inevitably fades to background levels.
"Over the last year plus fewer than 8% of the population has tested positive for Covid.”
That’s with people hunkered down, the idea is to be freed of the lockdowns, not to mention to avoid being part of the hospitalization problem. But if you only take the self centered point of view, and don’t mind remaining mostly locked down, sure, your logic is great.
Here in Center Mass, the poking is a volunteer effort run by the medical community. Since I volunteered to help out, they pay me with a jab.
Quit bitching and become part of the solution.
LOL. You think the bottleneck is that there aren't enough volunteers?
Oh, sweet child. Stay gold.
Wisconsin is tough on 65 and over. Here in Northern California, all of the 65s and up who I know who have tried have been able to get at least their first shot, and many their second. A relatively privileged group, to be sure, but in many ways comparable to Althouse.
The double talk claim is complete BS. The feds don't know how long it will take, and its not wholly in their control, because states make the final decisions and do most of the delivery and because vaccine rejection is going to be a thing. So they hedge their bets--clear on supply, which they can effectively control and where they have taken major steps, less clear on timing and extent, where they can have a positive influence, particularly if Congress passes renewed relief, but not final control. And all subject to the impact of variant strains. There is still much more transparency than we had during 2020. And not overpromising is a big thing, and much better than "it will be gone by Easter" and similar false claims.
Conversely Rhode Island, Georga, Utah, and Tennessee are all below 10%.
Utah is over 17% vaccinated with at least one dose. About 551K doses have been administered out of 628K delivered, which it pretty good. There is about a 1 week delay between delivery and administration. Where did you get your statistics?
"Twelve percent versus four percent, we are actually doing pretty well.”
Trump’s plans have left us wildly successful compared almost every other country. LIke I said, if they hadn’t delayed the approval to avoid helping Trump, this thing would be so much closer to in the rear view mirror.
But it was more important that Joe Biden’s family could get in the business of collecting on those 747s loaded with cash James Biden talked about than that the crisis phase of the pandemic be brought to a close
Unknown said...
Vaccination in norther AZ is shockingly well run. It's all coordinated by a drug rehab organization, and they are beyond competent.
They are on the ground there and know what kind of population they're dealing with. The two biggest vaccine success stories on a state level are Alaska and West Virginia. Same reasons. They aren't like some states that put up a web site and tell everyone to check it and/or sign up to get vaccinated without realizing that they're not reaching a lot of people.
""it will be gone by Easter"
That was Fauci’s opinion at the time. Trump fucked up, he trusted. Fauci.
“I feel like I've made a mistake by calmly relying on my clinic appointment.”
I’ve called several different healthcare providers in my area and they all say you must be a patient of theirs to get the vaccine through them. Pharmacies, at least in my area, are also at the mercy of their weekly allotment of vaccine and are no easier to get the vaccine through in my experience over the last two weeks.
"There is still much more transparency than we had during 2020. “
Should I link the clip of Biden claiming that Trump left us with no vaccine supply? Is bald faced lying transparency? What about a clip of Harris warning people not to take a vaccine developed during the Trump Administration, would you like to see that?
What about Cuomo obstruction justice by lying to the DOJ in 2020, you are right, that wasn’t very transparent.
"Experts" were skeptical when Fauci said it would take 12 to 18 months to develop a vaccine.
It is still unknown if the vaccine prevents transmission.
I keep hearing that phrase and I have no idea what message you are attempting to convey.
First a question. Does natural immunity prevent transmission?
After that is answered we get to the vaccine.
The vaccine nudges the body to produce specific protein(s) that shut down the reproduction of the virus. So I am going to assume, you mean if I am vaccinated, and I come into close contact with a person shedding the virus, even with the vaccine, I will still transmit the virus I recieved, to someone else?
But the contagion is dependent on viral load. If I am vaccinated, the virus does not reproduce, so what little I, a vaccinated individual passes on, would be such a light viral load to be moot.
I am 100% open to get educated on this subject.
Arlington, Virginia has been sending similar messages. States were blaming the federal government for lack of vaccine availability a few weeks ago back when most had administered only 50-60% of the vaccine they had been supplied. So my first instinct was that this was just more local bureaucracies trying to deflect blame for their own disorganisation and incompetence (that public health bureaucracy incompetence being one reason the Biden administration is probably right to redirect vaccines directly to private pharmacies like CVS and Walgreens). But at last, states really do seem to have worked through most of the vaccine they have been allocated, so it really does seem like states have no more than a couple days or a week of vaccines left. But it's not like the federal government is sitting on a huge vaccine stockpile that hasn't been released. Our production capacity is just limited.
"I’ve called several different healthcare providers in my area and they all say you must be a patient of theirs to get the vaccine through them.”
Make an appointment to get a PCP with a clinic that has vaccine, get your prescription and your vaccine. In Florida it happened that my clinic had vaccine and that’s how I got it, but I would certainly sign up for a new PCP if only for a month, to get a vaccine.
"The Johnson and Johnson vaccine will be available soon...”
It’s less effective, but if it were widely distributed to those with less risk, saving the more effective ones for people at greater risk of hospitalization and death, it would knock the pandemic on the head. Once R0 is below one, the thing inevitably fades to background levels.
The interesting thing about the Johnson and Johnson vaccine is that its effectiveness increases with time. By 49 days after one dose of this vaccine, it's effectiveness rises to 100%.
See MedCram: Coronavirus Update 121: Johnson and Johnson Vaccine - Efficacy and Safety vs. Pfizer & Moderna
"t is still unknown if the vaccine prevents transmission.”
Technically true. But it is also true that very few vaccinated people develop symptoms and that people who never develop symptoms rarely spread the virus. Which is different than pre-symptomatic people who spread it all the time.
I am going back to my normal life, while I will wear masks where required as a courtesy to others, I am going to plug myself back into the economy and start living again.
rcocean said...
why do we need to get EVERYONE vaccinated? The only people who need it are (1) old people (2) people with special conditions and (3) healthcare workers.
We don't need 100% vaccination. We don't need 50% or even 25%. but then, what is the point of even trying to discuss it? You got liberals, and women, who just want to do whatever the "ex-burts" tell them, no matter how stupid and obviously wrong it is.
So right, it needs to me posted twice
Volunteers not the bottleneck now, but is anticipated as the gen pop starts getting jabbed. Bitching about the problem is never in short supply.
why do we need to get EVERYONE vaccinated?
We don't. We need something like 60% - 85% (depending on which "expert" you ask) of the population to have immunity, whether it comes from the vaccine or an infection/recovery.
Currently we have 40 million people vaccinated and 27 million positive tests, so (40 + 27 /330) * 100 = 17%.
Obviously there's a ton of error with those numbers.
There's some unknowable number (likely large) of people who have had the virus and recovered beyond that 27 million. There's some error in terms of false positives and false negative tests. And there's always errors with data collection. There's intentional errors with overreporting or underreporting of cases for political reasons (Cuomo). And there's the issue of the vaccines themselves not being a 100% guaranteed immunity (more like 95% for people who recieve 2 doses) and the question of how long immunity lasts. Is in 9 months? 12 months? 18 months? If someone had the virus last spring will they still immune today? It most likely differs from person to person. And of course the worry about new virus varients circumventing immunity.
The point I'm trying to make is that there's so many unknowns here, so much in the way of untrustable information, that I don't think it's worth arguing over percentages too much.
The magic age is 50. I don’t know how many people there are in the US over 50 (more every day), but below that age the risk of dying from this is very low, with or without vaccination. Also, we have once again the Baby Boom to contend with. Those born from 1946 to 1964 are a huge cohort.
That is the challenge.
We should all implement the George Costanza rule when either Fauci or Gates is recommending anything. Do the opposite. Order the chicken salad on wheat.
That’s interesting mandrewa, but I wish there were a link to something other than YouTube, which tends to be the province of quacks. None of my text links seem to support the 99% number. Neither Google, BIng, nor DDG seem to find a different link to support the claim.
Re:Lurker21:
"Experts" were skeptical when Fauci said it would take 12 to 18 months to develop a vaccine.
I think as we look back on the pandemic response so far, one thing that stands out to me is that the Pfizer and Moderna vaccine candidates were developed in a matter of months. Their Phase 1 trials started in something like March 2020. In responding to future pandemics, there's easy low hanging fruit like, don't trust the WHO, don't let the CDC monopolise testing, don't listen to public health experts when they say masks don't work with a respiratory disease, etc.
But a more difficult question is whether there's more efficiencies we can squeeze out of the vaccine development and deployment process. We already cut an FDA approval process from years to months, but if Phase 3 trials could be compressed with larger samples (e.g. 150,000 people rather than 50,000 people), so that rather than taking 4 months (July-November), it took like 1.5 months (i.e. effectiveness verified by the start of September), what would that have done to infections and deaths? If vaccinations started in the start of October and second doses administered for the first cohort before Thanksgiving, would we have been able to reduce the Winter surge we saw in December? What if we could have shaved down the month between the initial Phase 3 trial results and FDA approval? There's a tradeoff between regulatory process and human lives that I hope we push even further in favour of human lives, in the next pandemic.
Vaccine distribution should be privatized like the Texas electric grid.
Utah is over 17% vaccinated with at least one dose. About 551K doses have been administered out of 628K delivered, which it pretty good. There is about a 1 week delay between delivery and administration. Where did you get your statistics?
Here. According to that CDC site, Utah has administered 532k doses with 314k recieving at least one dose, which translates to 9800 per 100k or 9.8%.
And what are you going to do if it turns out the vaccine has limited efficacy versus mutations? Continue to hide in the house waiting for the vaccine updates. Rinse and repeat.
rcocean said...
why do we need to get EVERYONE vaccinated?
Like others have said; we don't. But like rhhardin would say; you try telling the soap opera ladies they don't need to be vaccinated. Give us a heads up before you do, so we can have an ambulance standing by.
When looking at the stats, also remember that some doses are held back for the second jab that follows 21 +/- 4 days after the first for the Pfizer vaccine. One dose is actually pretty effective from a public health perspective, 80% isn't that different from 95%. About 10% of the Utah population has recovered from the covid and together with the 17% who have been vaccinated with one dose and those who are naturally immune, I think we will do pretty well.
These people are clueless and only the utter cluelessness of the rest of the elite class - media especially - prevents them from understanding the complete and total ignorance tehy claim is competence.
One of the beauties of being a Democrat is that you can say things that fly in the face of reason while virtually no one in the national media bats an eye.
Vice President Kamala Harris took full advantage of that reality during an interview on Sunday on HBO.
Longtime Washington journalist Mike Allen hurled a fast one at Harris when he asked her what she had found "harder" than expected in dealing with the pandemic.
"There was no stockpile … of vaccines, right?"
We're supposed to delay the vaccines from reaching people in order to create a more easily controlled central inventory? These people have no understanding of how things work and thus no concept of what needs to be done.
And sometime between now and then you'll realize you're likely better off getting the dreaded covid than the vaccination- which doesn't actually keep you from getting the dreaded covid.
Doug said…Maybe I am being incredibly dense - and that has been known to happen - but as there is a significant portion of the populace that has no intention of getting vaccinated, does it therefore follow the world will not get going again?
Gusty, I was questioning the blog hostess's statement:I'd like to see the world get going again, and that has more to do with people other than me getting their protection.
Personally, I got going once we had given it fifteen days to slow the curve.
Re: Joe Smith:
Did we have another 9/11 yesterday on Joe's watch?
We did (looks like 2,537 deaths, down from a January peak of 4,502), although I think the site I'm pulling from just aggregates data reported by states, so some of yesterday's deaths may not have been counted, and some of those 2,537 deaths may have taken place days ago.
But journalists' use of the statistic to attack Trump was mostly BS and bad faith before; for those same journalists to use it against Biden in the same way would be consistent, I suppose, and less obviously bad faith, but it wouldn't make it any less BS.
That’s interesting mandrewa, but I wish there were a link to something other than YouTube, which tends to be the province of quacks.
They are not exactly quacks. MedCram does continuing education for doctors. Of course there are many organizations that do that. But really you can learn a lot by watching MedCram's videos. These doctors have literally thousands of videos on different medical procedures and topics, aimed at doctors, on their website.
But I don't mean to say that I've been linking to this because of their authority, whatever that may be. I've been linking to it because of the self-evident intelligence.
Iowan2: This is from Johns-Hopkins.
"Also, while the vaccine may prevent you from getting sick, it is unknown at this time if you can still carry and transmit the virus to others. That is why, until more is understood about how well the vaccine works, continuing with precautions such as mask-wearing and physical distancing will be important."
Re: Yancey Ward:
And what are you going to do if it turns out the vaccine has limited efficacy versus mutations? Continue to hide in the house waiting for the vaccine updates.
Efficacy seems to be lower but not zero (although the South Africa strain may be the exception). But even so, it sounds like it's quite easy to develop a new vaccine for each variant, taking maybe a month. Existing corona vaccine production facilities could probably be switched over too. The problem is really the regulators. If the FDA requires 9 months of tests and administrative process from the development of the vaccine to deployment, we'll never keep pace. Condensing that regulatory time frame further is critical, especially if new variants really are more infectious.
Here in California, the seriously obese will get priority treatment
because they're more likely to succumb....
Howard said...
Volunteers not the bottleneck now, but is anticipated as the gen pop starts getting jabbed. Bitching about the problem is never in short supply.
It's interesting the Trump faced these same problems with left wingers criticizing everything. Only now that he's gone do the left wing White Knights emerge to protect Biden-Harris from having the standard they judged Trump by applied to themselves in turn. Even the left wingers who pose as reasonable only exercise that judgement when it serves to protect the left.
I didn’t say he was a quack, I just said that I couldn’t find any other references to his claim.
"Vaccine distribution should be privatized like the Texas electric grid.”
It seems to be working in Florida.
I have read that the efficacy of the big two vaccines drops to close to 50% on the “South African” variant. That’s too bad, but it’s enough to knock the pandemic on the head. I know math is hard for some people, but that’s the math.
NorthoftheOneOhOne said:you try telling the soap opera ladies they don't need to be vaccinated.
Try telling those same soap opera ladies and blog hostesses that they don't need to wear their masks after they get the vaccine. Good luck.
Yancy Ward said, "And what are you going to do if it turns out the vaccine has limited efficacy versus mutations? Continue to hide in the house waiting for the vaccine updates. Rinse and repeat."
By chance, one of the clinical trials for the Johnson and Johnson vaccine was done in South Africa at a time and a place when the majority of the people were infected with one of the new variants. The efficacy in the short-term, 57%, was lower than the 64% or so for the standard virus, but by day 49 after the vaccination, the efficacy against the new variants had risen to 100%.
Now it's important to understand how Johnson and Johnson defined efficacy. They define efficacy as not dying and not needing to be hospitalized. So people can still get the coronavirus and as long as the symptoms are modest that will count as a success for the vaccine.
See MedCram: Coronavirus Update 121: Johnson and Johnson Vaccine - Efficacy and Safety vs. Pfizer & Moderna
Utah has administered 532k doses with 314k recieving at least one dose
Hmm, I see the problem, I assumed it was only one dose and added the two together. OTOH, 87% of delivered doses have been administered, which puts the state near the top (#5). The bottleneck seems to be the number of doses delivered to the state, which is likely a production problem. I do seem to recall that the state ran out of vaccines back in Jan.
I got my first jab on Jan 27. I qualified by age and am affiliated with a medical organization that arranged vaccinations for patients and employees. I got number two yesterday.
My wife went through Northwestern Memorial, where we both got invitations because we are patients. They started with their oldest patients and worked down the list. She got shot number one last week. She did have to watch the computer for a few hours. She grabbed an appointment at Northwestern DuPage Hospital. She had to drive 35 miles out there, but it was very efficient in the clinic She got Moderna, so she is going back in three weeks.
Obviously, it helps to be independent and flexible. If you are passive, it is going to take a while.
Somebody at our local Public Health Service and OES got their finger out and scheduled vaccination clinics for the first group. If grandma showed up with a caregiver the caregiver got vaccinated. Important folks who didn’t get engraved invitations got s**t in their pompous necks. It’s been fun to watch.
"They define efficacy as not dying and not needing to be hospitalized. “
Yeah, that was kind of an important point you might have mentioned earlier.
I'm one of the 50% of the USA population who will not get a vaccine (got notice of eligibility yesterday due to age) because I don't trust this vaccine to be the panacea the Drug companies claim. Moreover, if history of new drugs is any guide we won't know for 5 years the efficacy of this rushed vaccine. The side effects are not encouraging to me so I'll pass until I see the % rates of side effects drop.
My 83 year old father got his first dose 8 days ago in upstate New York. He was originally scheduled for April 1st, but he kept re-applying on the SUNY website several times until he got the better date. It took several weeks of attempts. He was finally able to get the more recent appointment once New York state started to distribute the Moderna vaccine to some of the larger grocery store chains with pharmacies. He and I had to drive an hour to Albany to go to the Hannaford there.
The lesson I took away from it is that you have to be willing to work the system a bit if you want to get vaccinated in a more timely fashion. He had to keep trying, reapplying online, filling out the silly form over and over again. Most people either aren't aware or aren't willing to go through that rigmarole though.
Let me put it this way- we have been vaccinating against influenza A and B for decades now, with updated vaccines every single year. People still die from influenza A and B, even those who get the updated vaccines. The simple fact is that influenza and coronaviruses continue to circulate in the population despite the fact that we develop antibodies vs them all the time, either naturally or via vaccination. What are you going to do if, let's say, 100K die next year from COVID despite everyone getting vaccinated Summer? And the year after? And the year after?
You need to have a plan for how to live your life in such a world.
If he tinkers with the vaccine plan, you can give Tony Evers a chance.
By chance, one of the clinical trials for the Johnson and Johnson vaccine was done in South Africa at a time and a place when the majority of the people were infected with one of the new variants. The efficacy in the short-term, 57%, was lower than the 64% or so for the standard virus, but by day 49 after the vaccination, the efficacy against the new variants had risen to 100%.
Now it's important to understand how Johnson and Johnson defined efficacy. They define efficacy as not dying and not needing to be hospitalized. So people can still get the coronavirus and as long as the symptoms are modest that will count as a success for the vaccine.
My explanation would be that on average the poplation being followed is exposed to the virus within the first 49 days. When exposed, one of two things happen: they get sick or they don't. But those that get sick recover, so by around day 49 they, too, are immune.
Also, I would expect those that get sick and recover to have better and stonger protection than those vaccinated (especially re: the mRNA vaccines).
Trump has no plan. I do. -- Jo Biden
This is the plan.
You need challenge trials with new variants, not passive monitoring of vaccine recipients- see D.D. Driver's comment just above- a comment I was going to right in response to Mandrewa before I realized it had been done already.
Sigh....that should have been "write".
People I know of, but not know personally got the vaccine through clinics run by the Fire Department in Oconomowoc, WI for the last 6 weeks. The clinic offerings are done now. It was fire fighters and employees, health care workers (and it seems relatives of firefighter and cops). I’m not sure how many of these “clinics” are still being offered to cops and firefighters (and in some cases their relatives?) but it was luck and word of mouth in those cases. Health care provider’s administrative staff are also getting priority, I’m not sure how I feel about that. I know of two healthcare administrative people who have had both shots already.
Plus parents of disabled children are getting offered the vaccine as unpaid caregivers to their children. I’m fine with that, they need to stay healthy for their disabled children.
Dear Known Unknown,
We have Mets the enemy, and he is us.
Howard: "Vaccine distribution should be privatized like the Texas electric grid."
LOL
Howard thinks "independent" (ISO) means "privatized"!
Too funny.
The American Soviets really can tell you anything and have you embrace it, cant they?
You should look up the role of the Twxas State Legislature as well as the Texas PUC.
If the Texas grid leadership was free of political oversight there wouldnt be any windmills in Texas at all.
That should have been your first clue but it would require you to execute at least 3 logic steps to understand....so, you know, you were out of luck.
Yancey Ward: Let me put it this way- we have been vaccinating against influenza A and B for decades now, with updated vaccines every single year. People still die from influenza A and B, even those who get the updated vaccines. The simple fact is that influenza and coronaviruses continue to circulate in the population despite the fact that we develop antibodies vs them all the time, either naturally or via vaccination. What are you going to do if, let's say, 100K die next year from COVID despite everyone getting vaccinated Summer? And the year after? And the year after?"
I will make a prediction. It's not a new prediction because I have said this before and in fact I think I said this last spring -- or around the time I saw the data in the paper written about cold viruses from a long-term study in The Netherlands.
I believe that by two years from now the Covid-19 virus will have become a cold virus with no greater impact on people than the already existing endemic four coronavirus strains that are responsible for about 15% of the colds that people experience.
I believe that the risk of death and the risk of hospitalization are mostly confined to those who are getting the Covid-19 virus for the first time. By the second time it will feel just like a cold.
There is one exception. If you are seriously ill and close to death -- that is likely to die within the year anyway -- then getting Covid-19 for a second or third time might kill you. But then the same can be said for almost anything, including the viruses that cause colds.
And it won't be a problem for new generations because they will be first exposed to Covid-19 when they are children, and at the time when it is almost risk-free to get infected.
In the longer term I believe the viruses that commonly cause the flu are more dangerous.
“My 83 year old father got his first dose 8 days ago in upstate New York. He was originally scheduled for April 1st, but he kept re-applying on the SUNY website several times until he got the better date. It took several weeks of attempts.”
Lucky him that he was allowed to even schedule the vaccine. Here in my area of WI some people in their 80’s are still not even being offered a schedule to vaccinate. No waiting lists, no scheduling until they contact you. My healthcare provider has a running statement on Facebook and you should read the hundreds and hundreds of comments of irate people over age 65 who are not getting those “invitations to schedule”. No amount of hounding or calling the hotline helped any one of those people complaining. It’s the same story with friends who use different healthcare providers in this area. There just isn’t enough vaccine from week to week do any healthcare provider or pharmacy.
"They define efficacy as not dying and not needing to be hospitalized. “
Yeah, that was kind of an important point you might have mentioned earlier.
What is the goal, if not to save lives?
Let me put it this way- we have been vaccinating against influenza A and B for decades now, with updated vaccines every single year. People still die from influenza A and B, even those who get the updated vaccines.
This is apples and oranges because you are comparing a seasonal virus to a pandemic virus.
For the flu vaccines, scientists are trying to predict what variants of flu will be circulating the next year. It takes months to delevop these vaccines and they are trying to predict future events. It's a sloppy imperfect process of trying to fight an unknown, future enemy.
But if there was a deadly flu--like 1918--it would be insanity to not develop and take a strain specific flu shot (if it could be done in time). 1918 flu killed 100 million people around the globe in less time than COVID has been circulating.
As an aside: I'm a weirdo who views the new "mutant" strains as a positive development. COVID-19 is atypically infectious and deadly (among some people). I believe it is a "perfect storm." Thus, I also believe that probablity likely favors mutations leading to an imperfect storm rather than a more perfecter storm.
I think that is a perfectly reasonable prediction, Mandrewa, but with the way we are measuring things with RT-PCR tests, it is very likely that COVID "kills" 100K+ people every year going forward.
I guess the question for me is this- when do we stop testing for it?
My wife (67 last September) and I (67 in 4 weeks) were vaccinated on Monday 15th. Our second dose is booked for Tuesday 4th May. Went on line on Friday 12th mid afternoon, and were booked in around 5 minutes later. Very smooth process on line and very well organised in person. We had choices of venues based on our post code and were offered mornings/afternoons for next 5 days. We both had Oxford vaccine. Had the option of declining. Warned about possible side effects (one in ten), efficacy (62% after the first jab, but no hospitalisations or deaths). My wife had a bad headache and bit feverish for 24 hours. She's fine now.
In the bigger picture, the US is doing pretty well in per capita jabs. Hope you all on your side of the pond keep safe and well and get jabbed soon.
If you want some perspective on the overselling of Covid-19, check out Ivor Cummins.
https://onedrive.live.com/?authkey=%21AOdkE5ddmo3gfUo&cid=FD1CEFF1664DAE51&id=FD1CEFF1664DAE51%2124566&parId=root&o=OneUp
Yes Inga, but it's a separate allocation that the UW Health notice should be spelling out.
Can you check for Walgreens availability outside your county?
What are you going to do if, let's say, 100K die next year from COVID despite everyone getting vaccinated Summer? And the year after? And the year after?
>>
This is why the only way life returns to normal is through mass (un)civil disobedience. The tyrants & clerics of their new holyfacemasklockdown religion will never voluntarily relinquish their "powers."
>>I believe that by two years from now the Covid-19 virus will have become a cold virus with no greater impact on people than the already existing endemic four coronavirus strains that are responsible for about 15% of the colds that people experience.>>
>>
That is certainly possible, even likely, however, the tyrants will still behave as above.
>>So people can still get the coronavirus and as long as the symptoms are modest that will count as a success for the vaccine.
>>
I don't have the JNJ paper in front of me, but Pfizer and Moderna tested patients with the usual RT-PCR test.
And infections were reduced by 95%, hospitalization etc by 100%.
By they way, the above testing in the PFE/MRNA trials is why the idea that after those vaccinations (unless you're in the unlucky 5%), you won't be transmitting the virus, no matter what the fucking fraudulent dago dwarf mumbles.
No active virus in your upper respiratory tract, no transmission. Period.
Thanks to Operation Warp Speed, I was so wrong.
Careful, D.D., you may be forced to say something nice about Trump.
mockturtle said...
Iowan2: This is from Johns-Hopkins.
"Also, while the vaccine may prevent you from getting sick, it is unknown at this time if you can still carry and transmit the virus to others. That is why, until more is understood about how well the vaccine works, continuing with precautions such as mask-wearing and physical distancing will be important."
But I am not going to transmit a viral load large enough to do any harm.
If I misunderstand the mode of action of the vaccine please educate. Also, the question about natural immunity vs vaccine is still not addressed.
Yes I keep hearing the "experts" making statements but zero basis for the statement.
The success of this vaccine really does depend on COVID-19 moderating over time as it mutates. We will end up, surely, in the same position with regards to COVID as we are with influenza, and for the same reasons. Constant updated vaccinations with 50K-250K (US) dead each year from either COVID directly or indirectly, most of whom will be the elderly and/or infirm whose immune systems are hard to enhance.
I'm not convinced that I'd get the vaccine, if offered. I'm 62, retired and healthy. If I were still working, I'd probably do it. On the other hand, in Oregon the eligible population are those 80 years old and up, so it would be some time before they get to my age group.
(They have been vaccinating "at-risk", care providers, etc.)
What do you think would be different today, disease progression, if Moderna, Pfizer, and J&J vaccines had failed?
Shouldn’t the message be: “Due to a shortfall in the vaccine resulting from inoculation of politically connected Democrats and the Deep State those of you who are actually high risk for Covid will have to be rescheduled.”
I haven't posted the links for a while, but I continue to keep them updated.
US COVID Data
Individual States COVID Data
As usual, the US data charts are in the tabs at the bottom. The individual states I have been updating only every third day- they will get an update this evening.
Just a note about test #s. The COVID tracking project stopped getting "negative" test results from all the states, so the total test results data had to take the place of what had been positive plus negative tests that my columns had previously tracked. I decided to just update all the historical data to "total test results" to get rid of the discontinuity. For most of the states, the two numbers are still identical, but several states have also stopped listing negative results for whatever reason. It doesn' effect case numbers and deaths, but it does effect the percent positive rate columns.
The success of this vaccine really does depend on COVID-19 moderating over time as it mutates. We will end up, surely, in the same position with regards to COVID as we are with influenza, and for the same reasons. Constant updated vaccinations with 50K-250K (US) dead each year from either COVID directly or indirectly, most of whom will be the elderly and/or infirm whose immune systems are hard to enhance
I view this as a "worst case scenario." In certain ways, COVID is not nearly as bad as flu. I've never heard of anyone who caught influenza but didn't know about it. When you get the flu: you know. And so there is benefit in avoiding infleunza that goes beyond "I don't want to die."
If an attenuated COVID causes a lot of asymptomatic and cold-like illness, we may not care.
What do you think would be different today, disease progression, [etc].
Not a great deal, but next fall may be a different matter. I'm also happy to see new vaccine technologies come online, the vaccine development took weeks, it was the testing and production that took time. There is a risk in all new technologies and the current vaccines are not perfect, but I think there will be major benefits going forward. The improvement in treatment during the pandemic is also a big step, the current fatality rate is much better than it was at the start. The widespread use of monoclonal antibodies and cheap drugs like ivermectin may also help with future pandemics, perhaps even the flu.
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