February 19, 2021

"A single shot of the [Pfizer] vaccine is 85% effective in preventing symptomatic disease 15 to 28 days after being administered..."

"... according to a peer-reviewed study conducted by the Israeli government-owned Sheba Medical Center and published in the Lancet medical journal. Pfizer and BioNTech recommend that a second dose is administered 21 days after the first. The finding is a vindication of the approach taken by the U.K. government to delay a second dose by up to 12 weeks so it could use limited supplies to deliver a single dose to more people, and could encourage others to follow suit.... "

The Wall Street Journal reports.

254 comments:

1 – 200 of 254   Newer›   Newest»
tim maguire said...

This also goes to that "you're not protected for 6 weeks" canard, based on the fact that you don't get full protection for about 6 weeks. Protection starts to kick in at 10-14 days and by the time you get the 2nd shot, you already have most of the protection you're ever going to get. Something that's been known for at least a month.

mockturtle said...

"symptomatic disease". What I was trying to explain yesterday. Even with the vaccine, transmission is possible. So they'll still insist on masks, distancing, etc.

Tom T. said...

Hasn't the 85% figure been known from the outset? The second shot was deemed necessary because a 15% risk of the disease was considered still too high. Now it's not anymore?

DavidUW said...

That was also clear from the clinical trial

Achilles said...

Stupid theatre for sheep.

Remember there was no vaccine when Biden took office. He said so in unambiguous language.

Everything in the media right now is a lie.

stevew said...

Science, what can't it do!

A bit off topic, but why in the US is the government handling the distribution, including the appointment registrations? Why aren't the hospitals and clinics dealing with all that? There may be good reasons but I've not heard them. All I've heard is how the local governor either is doing a good job or, in the case of Charlie Baker in MA, has completely effed it up.

DavidUW said...

Even with the vaccine, transmission is possible. So they'll still insist on masks, distancing, etc.
>>

NO IT IS NOT.

"they" will insist on it because everyone in the bureaucracy from the dumb dago dwarf on down are fucking tyrants, but not because of "science."

YOU NEED AN ACTIVE VIRUS REPLICATING IN YOUR BODY TO TRANSMIT IT.

THIS IS A RESPIRATORY VIRUS.

ERGO YOU NEED ACTIVE VIRUS IN YOUR UPPER RESPIRATORY TRACT.

THERE IS NO ACTIVE VIRUS IN VACCINATED PEOPLE'S RESPIRATORY TRACT.

THIS WAS TESTED FOR IN THE CLINICAL TRIALS.

For fuck's sake stop with the stupid.

Temujin said...

I was told, while getting my 2nd Moderna shot, that the first shot gave me 92% immunity after 2-3 weeks. The second shot, given 4 weeks later, added another 2-3% immunity after another 2 weeks. So that first shot is the key.

Of course, I won't know how truly effective it is until I start moving around, flying to other cities, etc. again.

Ficta said...

In Maryland, the individual clinics (various pharmacies and hospitals mostly) are all handling their own appointment scheduling.

mockturtle said...

Good grief, DavidUW, back off! I'm merely making observations about the spin they'll put on it based on their own 'scientific news'. Too early in the morning to get your knickers in such a twist.

DavidUW said...

Good grief, DavidUW, back off! I'm merely making observations about the spin they'll put on it based on their own 'scientific news'.
>
The stupid is so strong it hurts my brain to even see that in print.
I agree the fucking dumbass dago dwarf will attempt to state that lie as long as possible.

He should be swinging from a lamppost.

mccullough said...

History is now and England.

tim maguire said...

mockturtle said..."symptomatic disease". What I was trying to explain yesterday. Even with the vaccine, transmission is possible.

They claim that transmission is theoretically possible. There's no evidence that it is actually possible and if you hear the theory of how it might happen, you'll realize it's ludicrous. Basically, there is a brief window where a vaccinated carrier can transmit the virus to another person if they blow their nose directly into the susceptible person's mouth. There's no accounting for kinks, but I don't see it happening too often.

Tommy Duncan said...

The science is always what's convenient and useful to the narrative. When we follow the science we serve our betters.

DavidUW said...

They claim that transmission is theoretically possible. There's no evidence that it is actually possible and if you hear the theory of how it might happen, you'll realize it's ludicrous. Basically, there is a brief window where a vaccinated carrier can transmit the virus to another person if they blow their nose directly into the susceptible person's mouth. There's no accounting for kinks, but I don't see it happening too often.
>>

Yes, in theory, a person would have to lick the infected snot off a vaccinated person's face/body after the vaccinated person was sneezed/coughed on by an infected person.

These are our "science" tyrants.

Fuck the dago dwarf and his fucking crew of crapweasels.

Sebastian said...

"A single shot of the [Pfizer] vaccine is 85% effective"

Well, tell it to the teachers' unions.

rehajm said...

They had to go to Israel for that. I find myself discounting anything US 'medicine' reports. Anything outside the regime immediately seems more credible..

Breezy said...

To me, 92% means I am pretty well protected. The 2-3% additional protection from a second shot seems superfluous. Maybe its advised for elderly and otherwise vulnerable, but it seems they could give just the one shot to most people, and do a second for a smaller subset. This would get more people protected more quickly, and reduce any backlog in the appt system.

gilbar said...

Remember there was no vaccine when Biden took office. He said so in unambiguous language.

That is SO TRUE!
Remember how Jo Biden couldn't get vaccinated, even though he was a politician (AND old)?
Remember how Jo Biden had to walk 17,000 miles; just to get his first dose?
Remember?

Dust Bunny Queen said...

A bit off topic, but why in the US is the government handling the distribution, including the appointment registrations?

Putting on my tinfoil hat (sort of):

Because that is how they can create a national data base of people who will be tagged for future camps to readjust our attitudes. Also to keep "certain" types of people from traveling, working or mingling with the right minded approved citizens.

If you just let everyone regionally and individually deal act on their own and deal with local agencies...how are you possibly going to be able to control them?

Big Brother can't control you if you aren't completely watched at every turn.

Gusty Winds said...

Great Britain and Australia are worse than Blue State USA and even Madison, WI when it comes to COVID totalitarianism. Pierce Morgan should be transferred out of the country to spend some quality time with the Uighurs.

DavidUW said...

To me, 92% means I am pretty well protected. The 2-3% additional protection from a second shot seems superfluous. Maybe its advised for elderly and otherwise vulnerable, but it seems they could give just the one shot to most people, and do a second for a smaller subset. This would get more people protected more quickly, and reduce any backlog in the appt system.
>>
That is the UK's strategy.

Michael said...

David UW
Unfortunately you are not at the National microphone and Fauci is. And so our president opines that we will be wearing a mask(s) until next year. And wonderfully useful “variants” crop up all over the world with scary names making for good press. And note well: all variants are more contagious or more deadly or, best of all, both. You might get one. You likely will maybe get one. Can’t be too careful. Fauci will never give the all clear. The public will in due course stop wearing masks but it will not be because of “science.”

Gusty Winds said...

How long till the black market on COVID Vaccine Papers starts up? Maybe the uber-liberal rich will start paying homeless people to go in and get the vaccine for them, just like how they would take handicapped kids to Disney World to avoid the lines.

Breezy said...

@DavidUW - thanks for that info - perfectly sensible - more doses for the world at large, too. I won’t be eligible until April, but I am going to check with my PCP about getting just one dose. Perhaps by then more data will be known/trusted about the longer term efficacy of each vaccine.

Original Mike said...

"Great Britain and Australia are worse than Blue State USA and even Madison, WI when it comes to COVID totalitarianism."

I'm really surprised at how Australia has responded to this. The Aussies I know must not be typical.

Gusty Winds said...

Dust Bunny Queen said… Because that is how they can create a national data base of people who will be tagged for future camps to readjust our attitudes. Also to keep "certain" types of people from traveling, working or mingling with the right minded approved citizens.

That’s not tinfoil hat. At this point parchment paper at best. When Madison, WI and all their liberal virtue signalers start wearing the “I got vaccinated” stickers they will insist upon exclusion from everything for people that have not been, or avoid being mRNA vaccinated.

Trust me…Madison, WI and Dane County are filled with “right minded approved citizens”. They thrive on the circle jerk.

The real fight is going to be when the "I want everyone to get vaccinated" crowd starts reaching down for the little kids.

Owen said...

Even if transmission is theoretically possible after you’ve been vaccinated (and DavidUW I think you’re correct that it almost certainly is not) my question is: so what? Once enough people have been vaccinated, they will be transmitting viral particles from their mild/meaningless infection to others who have been vaccinated and who therefore are about 95% unlikely to suffer any illness. Bottom line, 1000 people get vaccinated and so only 50 of them later get infected; of those only a few (5%?) can transmit it to the next 1000, of whom only 50 are vulnerable; so the virus rapidly runs out of fuel. If it doesn’t keep R0 over 1, it starves in a hurry.

Someone better informed, please correct this reasoning.

IMHO the REALLY big news is the change in the “cold chain” requirements for the vx. The logistics just got a LOT easier.

stevew said...

Note that the annual flu shot runs about 50% effective as a vaccine.

Gusty Winds said...

The mRNA vaccination crap reminds me of a funny Marmaduke cartoon.

Marmaduke (the dog, if you’re not familiar) is leaning out the car window and says to the neighbor dog mockingly, “HA. HA. I’m going to get tutored.”

Achilles said...

mockturtle said...
"symptomatic disease". What I was trying to explain yesterday. Even with the vaccine, transmission is possible. So they'll still insist on masks, distancing, etc.

I am going to assume you don’t believe transmission by people who don’t have a critical mass of virus in their system happens in any repeatable numbers. So I am not directing my ire at you personally.

If we allow this stupidity to continue we do not deserve our freedom.

Really anyone who pushes this notion is so stupid that the IQ bell curve no longer contains you or you are evil.

iowan2 said...

Herd immunity is what? 65-70%

Get as many shots in arms and call it good.

As usual, nobody will tell me what the goal is.

At this point, evidence is pointing to perfection as a goal, will accomplish wide spread mediocrity.

LYNNDH said...

Just trying to stop a second shot so THEY can vaccinate more people with a single shot.
If that happens it may well come back and bite them.

Joe Smith said...

So 2 shots is 170% effective?

Good to know.

Can I get a job at WHO now? Or be one of Biden's Science® advisors?

Achilles said...

Thank you DavidUW for pointing that out.

The entire COVID 19 episode has been a lie and a sham.

There is not one useful thing said about this in the media and the fascists are stomping on any rational discussion about the virus.

This is being done with malice and the goal is to destroy our freedom.

And look at how quickly we kneeled.

mockturtle said...

And look at how quickly we kneeled.

Who is 'we', Achilles? Apparently you're the one wearing the knee pads.

Owen said...

Achilles @9:04: Wish I could disagree. The real virus is unreasoning fear. (Wait: that’s redundant.)

I would say that we have been unmanned by fear, but that would be sexist.

rehajm said...

Kim Strasel- Opinion WSJ: We’ll Have Herd Immunity by April: Covid cases have dropped 77% in six weeks. Experts should level with the public about the good news...

tim maguire said...

iowan2 said...Herd immunity is what? 65-70%

It's whatever the government needs it to be to make whatever argument they are making today. Numbers as high as 95% have been bandied about, but when you think about what needs to happen for the virus to thrive--currently, each person who has it transmits it to fewer than one other person and during our "waves," it has been only sightly more than one other person)--you find that adding 20% or 30% to whatever protection level we currently have is all you need. So, probably, about 50% total will be enough to make sure we never have another wave.

We need maybe 75% or 80% if we want the virus to die out altogether.

Darkisland said...

A client required me to be tested for a job next week. Just got the results. I'm negative.

Even better, I seem to have had kungflu at some point in the past so no need for the vaccine! I have never even had so much as a cold that I know of in the past year.

I wish this news about the single shot had come out last week. My wife is at a circus today getting her second shot. She goes back to school Monday and it is required by the state dept of education.

Yippee! We're gonna live!

John Henry

Darkisland said...

So now that I am negative and can't spread the virus, and positive for antibodies so can't catch the virus, I guess I can stop wearing my mask.

Right?

Wrong. According to state law.

Silly me, thinking the masks were ever about controlling spread.

John Henry

DavidUW said...

If we allow this stupidity to continue we do not deserve our freedom.

Really anyone who pushes this notion is so stupid that the IQ bell curve no longer contains you or you are evil.
>>
They are evil. For example, the "immunologist" at GWU who had been propagating the lie that post-vaccination you could still transmit the virus: Jeffrey Bethony, for one example, is not stupid, therefore, he is evil. The entire department at Johns Hopkins who supported the CDC's lies is another group. Not stupid. Evil.

Which is why I gladly advocate the public hanging of a certain dago dwarf and his cronies.
I do not exaggerate. I would gladly be a part of that mob. He richly deserves a painful torture (preferably administered by parents whose children have committed suicide during this miserable episode) followed by a horrible death. and if there's a god, an eternity in hell. His rotting head should be put on a pike in front of the CDC building, prior to its burning and salting of the earth.





Howard said...

Mask pussies.

Owen said...

DavidUW @ 9:18: “...burning and salting of the earth.”

You forgot “and the lamentations of their women,” but otherwise I like the cut of your jib.

Charlie Currie said...

85% effective is way better than a normal flu vaccine. Some years it's less than 60% effective. They just guess at what strains and mutations are coming - some years their guess is better than others and I'm sure they would be thrilled at getting an 85% effective rate.

First time I got the flu was after getting a flu shot in basic training - 1966.

mockturtle said...

Bottom line: The 'science' will follow the narrative every time. Get used to it. My advice is to ignore it all and ignore the narrators.

An editorial by Marwan Bishara in Al Jazera today, "The Feats, Fiats and Failures of American News Networks", has the following observation:
CNN and other networks have brought in the pundits to reaffirm or refute whatever is said in Washington, instead of investigating factualness and implications for the general public. Doing so, of course, would be costlier, as it would require extensive reporting from various parts of the country and the world.

It is journalism by opinion and conviction, not by inquiry.


We know this very well, do we not? Frothing at the mouth will get us nowhere. Resistance to the mandates will.

Ray - SoCal said...

Many people that had the Wuhan flu are also getting vaccinated, delaying herd immunity.

Plus the tests may be less sensitive now, with fewer false positives.

Plus how the death rate is calculated may go back to historically used methods. It seems the death rate was deliberately increased during the Trump administration.

My parents in Los Angeles County are still waiting to get vs consternation, they are over 75.

Darkisland said...

Blogger rehajm said...

Covid cases have dropped 77% in six weeks.

And it is pure coincidence that the govt dropped the recommended number of cycles in the PCR test to 33 (it's the magic number!)from about 40. Some labs were running as many as 45.

The more cycles you run, the more minute traces you pick up and the higher you can claim the kung flu rate is.

It was increased last summer at the height of campaign season. It was reduced in January.

But that is just pure coincidence. Nothing at all to do with orange man bad.

Right?

John Henry

Darkisland said...

Blogger gilbar said...

Remember how Jo Biden had to walk 17,000 miles; just to get his first dose?
Remember?


I remember. But you left out the part about uphill both ways and in snow.

John Henry

Jersey Fled said...

They had to go to Israel for that. I find myself discounting anything US 'medicine' reports.

Israel is my go to source for vaccine data. Aside from the fact that they have vaccinated close to 50% of their population and lead the world in that regard, their research is top notch and seems to be politics free. Meanwhile, Fauci is telling us to wear two masks. Or is it three now.

Ray - SoCal said...

And no deaths among those vaccinated.

And they are at 90% over 60 adults received one shot.

80% two shots over 60:
https://ourworldindata.org/vaccination-israel-impact

Around half total adults.

US is at 12.5% vaccinated.

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/

iowan2 said...

LYNNDH said...
Just trying to stop a second shot so THEY can vaccinate more people with a single shot.
If that happens it may well come back and bite them.


Bite them HOW? This is the kind of idiocy we are talking about.

1st, We should have those of the highest risk category for death vaccinated by March 1st, with at least the 1st dose.

2cnd, what is the R number now? Gee we don't know. Because? Shut up and put your mask on.

So what is the downside to using the one dose protocol....assuming all the vulneralable get the follow up shot.

Dust Bunny Queen said...

Gusty Winds .....avoid being mRNA vaccinated.

THIS is the real reason that I do not consider getting this "vaccination". It isn't a vaccination,

DNA and RNA vaccines have the same goal as traditional vaccines, but they work slightly differently.

Instead of injecting a weakened form of a virus or bacteria into the body as with a traditional vaccine, DNA and RNA vaccines use part of the virus’ own genetic code to stimulate an immune response.


RNA vaccines make your genes create the disease in you so that you can build antibodies. Instead of injecting a weakened form of a virus or bacteria into the body, DNA and RNA vaccines use part of the virus’ own genes to stimulate an immune response. In other words, they carry the genetic instructions for the host’s cells to make antigens. By making you actually HAVE the disease.

Genetic engineering. People freak out about GMO corn and other foods, but don't blink and eye at allowing the government to genetically engineer our own bodies with an RNA vaccine that has been rushed and hasn't really been tested thoroughly and which has unknown long term side effects?

No thanks. I'll take my chances on catching the Covid Flu on my own.

iowan2 said...

Dr Marky on FOX now.
Herd immunity by April 1st.
All the vulnerable vaccinated before April 1st.

This is OVER

But that's just the science.

Marky observes cases are down 70+ % Marky says as a scientist, he can see no factors to explain the rapid decrease...except herd immunity. =R <1.0

mockturtle said...

Darkisland observes: And it is pure coincidence that the govt dropped the recommended number of cycles in the PCR test to 33 (it's the magic number!)from about 40. Some labs were running as many as 45.

The more cycles you run, the more minute traces you pick up and the higher you can claim the kung flu rate is.


BINGO!

mockturtle said...

Dust Bunny, I totally agree. And if for some reason I HAD to get vaccinated, I would choose a non-mRNA version, like J&J.

iowan2 said...

RNA vaccines make your genes create the disease in you so that you can build antibodies.

Holy Hell, thats wrong!

The rna signals cells to create a specific protein that prevents the virus from replicating.

This is the same process used in Crops to offer insect protection. The plant makes a specific protein toxic to a specific biological process in a narrow category of lepidoptera.

Give a huge shoutout and thankyou to agriculture being a proving ground of this technology over the last 2 decades.

MikeR said...

According to some really top doctors in Pathology at my hospital, these vaccines are far more effective than they are saying. 90% effective, 95% effective... No, they are virtually 100% effective at keeping the person himself from getting seriously ill. The questions are on getting a very mild case and being able to pass it on.
That means if you vaccinate a high-risk person, you are saving one life for sure.
That means that (for example) Israel made absolutely the right choice by vaccinating all the old and high-risk people first. And as a result, their hospitalizations and seriously ill people from COVID are decreasing rapidly.
Once you take care of the high-risk people, what's left is a bad flu. You could follow the Swedish model after that with little consequence.

Jersey Fled said...

Is it just me, or is it impossible to find a rate of transmission number anymore. I can find a few state numbers, but no national numbers.

Owen said...

Dust Bunny Queen @ 9:36: I am no scientist but this explanation strikes me as mistaken in at least one key respect. The mRNA from the vaccine does not contain the entire sequence for the virus: only for the epitope or other features that the designers want to replicate and present to the vaccinee's immune system. I think that replicated piece is part of the viral envelope's spike protein but I defer to the experts. The point is, what is injected is not the potent virus, able to replicate and destroy the host cells in full Disease Mode. It's the antigenic piece, similar to what a "traditional" vaccine would present to the body, except manufactured in situ by the vaccinee's own cells.

The "genetic engineering" here does not enter the nucleus, does not get incorporated into the host DNA. It goes to the ribosome and directs it to make copies of the desired proteins.

If I am correct (and I do think I am), then while you are right to say the vaccines "carry the genetic instructions for the host's cells to make antigens" you are wrong to then say "By making you actually HAVE the disease." The "disease" you are having is merely a fragment of the real thing, deliberately so.

rcocean said...

So why are huge states like NY, Wisconsin, Mass, etc. still Locked down? Vaccinate the health workers, the oldsters and lets get back to work! Go look at the statistics, all the people dying are the oldsters and the already sick. Once we protected them, there's no more crisis.

tim in vermont said...

Full disclosure, I have had both shots, but even before I had, I felt that it would be maybe better to give just one to people, since the exponential nature of the law of growth [They have called it the *LAW* of growth for a long time for good reason] suggests that cutting cases by even a small percentage has a very large knock on effect. But since I took the second dose rather than declining it, I guess I didn’t really have the courage of my convictions.

The more cycles you run, the more minute traces you pick up and the higher you can claim the kung flu rate is.

An actual trace of the virus is not a false positive. Even if the virus load is very low. Anybody who has taken calculus knows that a single sample of a curve that changes over time doesn’t tell you much except for the presence or absence of the virus, it doesn’t tell you whether it is currently rising or currently falling. It certainly doesn’t tell you whether this is the peak viral load you are going to experience. If they caught you very early in an infection, the viral load could well be on the upswing and you could be contagious within a day or two, and symptomatic in four.

It’s well that they set a standard, but there were patients’ best interest reasons for doing a more sensitive test. The real problem with false positives comes from testing people at random with no reason to test them, which has always been known as a recipe for false positives, unless the test is perfect.

False Positive Paradox. - Wikipedia

You don’t have to assume a conspiracy to understand a lot of what happened regarding false positives. Which I have been pointing out since day one of this pandemic. The real problem is that the Democrats politicized this pandemic from the start, starting with impeaching Trump during the earliest days of the outbreak.

Oh yean, and imagine where we would be if the FDA hadn’t paused the approval process for the vaccine until the day after the election.

rcocean said...

if vaccinate 12 million, and 5% can still get CV-19 so what? The idea is not to eradicate CV-19, that is impossible. The idea is reduce it from a Killer disease to something like the regular flu.

rcocean said...

WHen we first started this clown show, it was;

we need to flatten the curve

Then it was:

We need a vaccine

And now its what?

tim in vermont said...

"Once we protected them, there's no more crisis.”

One would think....

Also the seasonality is soon to kick in, if it hasn’t already. Next season, most people will be vaccinated and the refuseniks are on their own. Supposedly a novel coronavirus hit late in the 19th century, and did a lot of killing for four years, then became a seasonal cold. Maybe we have cut that time in half for this one.

Owen said...

tim in Vermont @ 9:56: "...did a lot of killing for four years." We may now be in the end stages of beating (well, managing) the virus, but where do we go to get our country back?

What makes us think these "leaders" will ever ever relinquish the extraordinary power they've arrogated?

It will be double masks until Judgement Day. And those who question it will be easily identified and pulled aside.

roesch/voltaire said...

I had my first shot and the next is scheduled for March while my wife who still teaches has not received any shots and does not want to return to the classroom until she has at least one-- which seems reasonable to me. In the mean time we both wear double masks when in public. We know too many people who have suffered greatly from the virus not to be careful.

Jersey Fled said...

I think the recommended number of cycles was always in the low to mid 30's. I remember Fauci accidentally saying that anything over 35 cycles was unreliable close to a year ago. Yet the labs were "voluntarily" running the test at 42 to 45 cycles.

I thought at the time the labs were trying to keep the fear porn meter turned up to generate more business.

Now I suspect that they were in on the campaign to get Biden elected.

Jersey Fled said...

And now its what?

Now it is variants.

We are all going to die.

tim in vermont said...

This study on asymptomatic spread, not “pre-symptomatic” spread which we know happens, but true asymptomatic spread suggests to me that that the risks of spreading the virus after you have been vaccinated is low enough that in my personal life, I am not going to worry about it. Of course there is the chance that I am wrong about this, that’s why I said “my personal life” but I have been alone in my home isolated, due to co-morbidities, long enough that I am not willing to flush any more of my remaining years on such a small chance. Of course it will be the choice of anybody I am in social contact to make, and I will still wear masks in indoor public spaces.

https://www.aier.org/article/asymptomatic-spread-revisited/

tim in vermont said...

"but where do we go to get our country back?”

I think that when Newsom gets recalled in CA and the way Cuomo’s numbers have cratered, that the political consensus that allowed these lockdowns is collapsing. We should be working on ensuring election integrity and if they think that they are facing an honest test from the voters, they will drop this nonsense sooner than quicker.

Cuomo is locking down counties where bears outnumber humans, I am sure Newsom is doing the same. It can’t last.

Michael McNeil said...

Owen at 9:52 I believe is correct. The vaccines do not insert even an entire gene, much less the entire Covid viral genome — just enough fragments of gene(s) to trigger building antibodies that can latch onto those particular segments of viral genome when later encountered.

way beyond that, traditional vaccines based on “weakened” virus do inject acual live virus particles that have been known in some cases to cause that particular disease — rather than immunizing against it. Because it includes actual, complete (though “weakened”) virus particles. The present vaccine(s) do not.

tim in vermont said...

"Now it is variants.”

There was a great deal of pushback from people here when I talked about exponential growth of the pandemic, but really the exponential growth part is just a phase of logistical growth, and even if there are variants, unless the vaccines are completely ineffective against them, the curve is gong to bend down.

Anybody who pays attention to the science of it and the well established math, knows that this pandemic is coming under control and the variants are little more than a bump in the road. Of course that doesn’t rule out politicians misusing them for their own purposes.

mockturtle said...

Iowan two suggests: Give a huge shoutout and thankyou to agriculture being a proving ground of this technology over the last 2 decades.

Um, no thank you.

tim in vermont said...

"I'm really surprised at how Australia has responded to this”

They imported a new electorate. Same as Biden and Pelosi want to do. Howard could never get elected there now.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

The death curve is bending down more steeply and earlier than it did last year.

Owen said...

Regarding variants: I reiterate the disclaimer that I am no scientist and didn't even play one on TV; but it's my understanding that (1) all living things (and a virus is, for this purpose, "living") evolve under selection pressure (2) the rate of evolution is a function of the selection pressure, the rate of reproduction, and the error rate in reproducing the code in the next generation (3) an organism that runs on RNA rather than DNA has a (much?) higher error rate which (4) means that an RNA organism like Covid is a hot mess of mutation. Therefore: variants are not just likely, they are constantly happening and probably within a single host: the "average" RNA of the particles that infect your nose on Day 1 may be supplanted by those with an importantly different "average" RNA in your lungs on Day 15. And that's just you: what you then shed and gets picked up by the next person will continue to evolve.

That said: the important thing is selection pressure. The virus doesn't "want" to kill us, it wants to domesticate us. It wants to become the common cold, and wear that little bumper sticker you see on the Priuses: "Coexist."

Therefore, we should see variants which tend --TEND to be-- less lethal. That doesn't mean that the vaccines will catch them, but insofar as the vaccines do not, the reduced lethality should give us some comfort. But this is all probabilistic speculation by an amateur.

Tommy Duncan said...

Blogger iowan2 said...

"Marky observes cases are down 70+ % Marky says as a scientist, he can see no factors to explain the rapid decrease...except herd immunity. =R <1.0"

It's also the end of the normal flu season.

chuck said...

I would choose a non-mRNA version, like J&J.

If I understand the J&J vaccine, it also hijacks the mitochondria to produce a spike protein, the main difference is that it uses a modified virus (Adenovirus 26) to inject a DNA strand that is incorporated into the nucleus and codes for the RNA used by the mitochondria. If you are concerned about invasiveness, it is arguably more invasive. See here for a longer explanation.

mockturtle said...

chuck: No, it's not the 'invasiveness' but the novelty of the mRNA vaccines. I'm not saying they're not safe but I'm not one to try new things first. We really don't know what, if any, long term effects there might be. The Adenovirus technique has been successfully used in the past.

Original Mike said...

"way beyond that, traditional vaccines based on “weakened” virus do inject acual live virus particles that have been known in some cases to cause that particular disease — rather than immunizing against it. Because it includes actual, complete (though “weakened”) virus particles. The present vaccine(s) do not."

Because of this, I'd much prefer to get the mRNA one.

Owen said...

chuck @ 10:30: Thanks for the update on J&J and the link to the article describing how it works. Some impressive science.

mockturtle said...

Owen @10:27, what you say makes sense. But has HIV [an RNA virus] become less lethal, or is the decline in deaths due to treatment?

Gusty Winds said...

Two women, age 34 and 44 get busted in FL pretending to be grannies to move up in the vaccine line. They got busted trying to get the second dose.

How fear programmed can you possibly be? It’s so stupid and sad, it’s actually funny.

I propose we vaccinate all of Dane County, WI first. Get the crazy people out of the way. Once they figure they are protected from fake certain death, maybe they will leave the rest of us alone.

Owen said...

mock turtle @ 10:40: Good question. I don't know the answer. At some general level, I would argue that HIV, like every other organism, "wants" to survive. And when you kill your host (by rendering it defenseless against infection by other organisms), you die: unless you've already infected lots of new hosts. Over time I would expect HIV to be less lethal, but that's no reason to be complacent or fatalistic. Our species has survived only because it is unhappy with natural processes and decides to use science and technology to screw with them for its own benefit. So an HIV vaccine would be a pure blessing.

Dust Bunny Queen said...

To those who corrected me, Yes. I am not a scientist. So I undoubtedly have some of the details wrong.

However, the skeptic in me refuses to accept that the Government really knows what it is doing;in this and in everything else. I am skeptical that the other non scientists, non elected bureaucrats, who are making these decisions know what they are doing OR that they really have MY best interests at heart. Past history is a clue to current events.

All this hoohah [vaccines for Covid] may be totally innocuous. Probably is and probably will save some lives....probably. That is good.

BUT...given the rank politicization and government power grabs made in the name of Covid. I remain a skeptic.

Since I am in a geographical area with almost zero cases of Covid. Low density population. Live a lifestyle that keeps me from geographic areas of infection..... I'm taking a wait and see attitude before getting any vaccine for this virus. Other people can make their own decisions and that is fine with me.

I mask up when I go shopping, banking etc... or if it is asked and required of an establishment. I wash my hands and sanitize objects that I am touching. I see no harm in being proactive.

If it is that I cannot fly on an airplane..BFD. There is no where I want to or need to go that requires flying or even taking any public transportation. {if there were even such a thing where I live}.




Gusty Winds said...

Blogger roesch/voltaire said...
I had my first shot and the next is scheduled for March while my wife who still teaches has not received any shots and does not want to return to the classroom until she has at least one-- which seems reasonable to me. In the mean time we both wear double masks when in public. We know too many people who have suffered greatly from the virus not to be careful.

1) Your wife should immediately quit her job. For her own piece of mind and safety of course. But...the rest of us are working to keep your lights on. I'm sure that's completely lost on such woke couple. It would be better for the kids. The sooner the better for everyone. There are enough hyperventilating idiots in education and it is destroying the country and our youth.

2) You should wear five masks at least. Two is never enough. See if you can get ten around your thick skull. If not, full hazmat suit is a must.

You say you know many people who “suffered greatly". You mean they’re still alive??? What are the odds??? 99%. Whew.

Lewis Wetzel said...

Covid positive cases and deaths in the US, the UK, Sweden, and a few other countries have dropped off a cliff since mid January.
This was too soon after the introduction of the vaccine for it have have had any effect. It was also three weeks after Christmas and two weeks after New Years, when we were warned by all the experts that we could expect to see the case load rise, not fall.
They know nothing. Their biggest fear is that they will be found out.

Gusty Winds said...

At this point, people put on a mask at the grocery store to avoid having their balls busted by some freaked out Teachers Union Karen and their Voltaire husbands . They don’t give a shit about COVID, and they know they’re not going to die from it, nor kill anyone like Democrat Governors did.

Soon, many will comply with the mRNA, and waltz their children to the Fauci/Gates chemical compound so they can get on a plane again someday.

“YOU’RE ALL A BUNCH OF FUCKING SLAVES!!!” – Jim Morrison. Miami, FL - 1969. He was absolutely right. Then he showed everyone his penis.

rcocean said...

we can know criticize the Great Doctor Facuci because Trump is gone. Before, he had to be worshipped so, the MSM could pit him against Trump. "Look Trump is going against SCIENCE, Dr. Facui says..."

Now we can see what a clown he is. A medical weathervane and drama queen. Now we're up to double masks. Before it was NO masks. HCQ is now helpful. Before it was no it isn't, or "maybe". The curve got flattened, and then we got MORE lockdowns. The vaccines were in the far distant future, now they're here, but we still need lockdowns because blah.blah. Does anyone else remember when faccui was worried we'd have a massive killer CV-19 "second wave"?

rcocean said...

QUIT WRITING EVERYTHING IN BOLD

Original Mike said...

"1) Your wife should immediately quit her job."

That would be the honorable thing to do.

LA_Bob said...

DaviddUW,

My understanding is that the available anti-COVID vaccines produce serum antibodies. But they don't necessarily produce mucosal antibodies (secretory IgA) that prevent infection of the respiratory tract.

So a vaccinated person could still become infected, perhaps asymptomatically, in their nose / throat / windpipe. They would be protected from serious systemic disease. But they could still transmit active, replicating virus from their respiratory tracts. This is supposed to be the basis for continued restrictions and masking in the "vaccine era".

Now, go ahead, tear your hair out and scream and shout and tell me how this is wrong. And please provide a reference.

Speaking of which, here are mine.

https://www.drugtargetreview.com/news/78045/triggering-an-iga-antibody-response-could-increase-covid-19-vaccine-efficacy/

https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fimmu.2020.611337/full

https://high-fat-nutrition.blogspot.com/2020/12/igg-iga-and-sniffing-virus.html

Inga said...

“My understanding is that the available anti-COVID vaccines produce serum antibodies. But they don't necessarily produce mucosal antibodies (secretory IgA) that prevent infection of the respiratory tract.

So a vaccinated person could still become infected, perhaps asymptomatically, in their nose / throat / windpipe. They would be protected from serious systemic disease. But they could still transmit active, replicating virus from their respiratory tracts. This is supposed to be the basis for continued restrictions and masking in the "vaccine era".”

Good explanation, thank you.

Gusty Winds said...

We currently have NY Gov Cuomo going down in flames for lying about people he killed, and Fauci praised the guy “for doing it right”. Dozens of fear pushing Democrats have been caught braking their own rules.

We know the guy that invented the PRC test was against its current usage for positive detection. You have a political virus where NOBODY in normal, open, red areas is suffering from COVID to any greater degree than Madison, San Francisco, or crazy ass Chicago.

All this pseudo-scientific pontification about vaccine effectiveness etc… is bullshit. Consider the sources. These people pushing vaccination are the same people who fought any form of treatment. They vilified HCQ for no other reason that Trump Derangement Syndrome.

ANTHONY FAUCI. Why would anybody at this point believe anything that guy says? Why would we believe that a vaccine is going to save our lives, when we don’t have any REAL or TRUSTWORTHY data on any aspect of COVID.

They won’t even admit it came from the WUHAN lab and now Biden just funded the lab while the Wuhan Market thrives, and American kids are STILL locked out of school by our evil Teachers Unions.

We’ve been lied to for a year, and now the lie has just settled in to the norm. Mission accomplished.

God Bless RFK Jr.

Gusty Winds said...

Blogger Dust Bunny Queen said...
To those who corrected me, Yes. I am not a scientist. So I undoubtedly have some of the details wrong.

NOBODY here knows any more about mRNA effectiveness, need, or distribution prioritization than you do. Our "scientists" have LIED to us for a year now. They hold no more expertise than the average American with a keen bullshit detector.

The censorship of any alternative scientific or medical opinion outside that contradicts St. Gates and St. Fauci is all you need to know. This isn't "science".

You are absolutely correct to be skeptical. Hopefully many more become skeptical before the Teachers Unions demands this experimental vaccine gets pumped into every four year old before they go to kindergarten.

iowan2 said...

So a vaccinated person could still become infected, perhaps asymptomatically, in their nose / throat / windpipe. They would be protected from serious systemic disease. But they could still transmit active, replicating virus from their respiratory tracts. This is supposed to be the basis for continued restrictions and masking in the "vaccine era".

Why do we care? What harm befalls who? We have vaccinated all the vulnerable, TODAY numbers tell us we are below R1, We are at the point of having what my parents did...hold a chickenpox party. get this behind us...Dems can't let the pandemic end so soon. (see teachers unions)
Anything else is political posturing and using fear to implement policies that would never breath air without a fabricated narrative, like this.

Joe Smith said...

"“YOU’RE ALL A BUNCH OF FUCKING SLAVES!!!” – Jim Morrison. Miami, FL - 1969. He was absolutely right. Then he showed everyone his penis."

The Doors...the most overrated band in the history of overrated bands, with the most overrated singer in the history of overrated singers.

If I hear 'Riders on the sto-ormmmm' one more time I will stab myself in the eye with any sharp object at hand.

Good thing he died young of an overdose or nobody would remember him...

Owen said...

Bob @ 11:11: "...But they could still transmit active, replicating virus from their respiratory tracts. This is supposed to be the basis for continued restrictions and masking in the 'vaccine era'." Thanks, very useful. But it prompts (for me) a next question, which is that infectivity has a qualitative and a quantitative aspect. If a viral particle is really good at hooking on to a host cell and entering and hijacking it, then only a few of those bad boys would suffice to cause real trouble. But if it is only mediocre at that job, more of them would be needed to overwhelm the host immune system before it ramps up.

D Day analogy: if Rommel's panzers are tricked or intimidated not to leave their reserve and attack the Allies on the beach, even a few Allies can consolidate the invasion site and drive for success. Whereas if the tanks show up early, even a large invading force will be defeated.

So does the IgA "blindness" mean that the virus gets a strong beach-head and replicates enough to produce a lot of infectivity? Or does it just mean that the host gets a cold and then shakes it off as the vaccine-induced IgG and IgM troops show up before massive replication occurs (and, e.g., overwhelming the immune system with lower respiratory tract complications)?

Howard said...

If you believe and actively participate in in Pandemic Theatre, you broadcast the placebo effect to your fellow man.

Gusty Winds said...

I’m starting to sympathize with the Millennials and Generation Z when they say “OK BOOMER”.
Here we have a generation who in their youth lived through the 1968/1969 Hong Kong Flu and didn’t even know it was going on. They don’t even remember it. Nobody locked them down. Cancelled concerts and sporting events, or closed their schools. They were busy getting stoned, burning bras, waiting to become 80’s yuppies, and enjoying the fruits of a post WWII economy their parents left them.

Now here we are 50 years later, and the BOOMERS, insist that young people take their false fear seriously. The freedom of today’s youth should be sacrificed for the common good. They want everyone to get vaccinated. It’s just a nice thing to want. They want everyone to double mask. It’s just common courtesy.

They want schools closed until they can be sterilized like the Wildfire underground laboratory in the “Andromeda Strain”. And these are all their prerequisites to go back to a normal they were never forced to leave in their youth.

OK Boomer.

Mark said...

a 15% risk of the disease was considered still too high.

To be clear, without a vaccine, over the last year, there has been less than a 9 percent chance of getting the virus (28 million cases / 331 million people). So that is 15 percent of 9 percent, or about a one percent chance.

Howard said...

Paul McCartney and Wings is the most overrated band of all eternaty. I'm sorry you don't like the Doors, Joe. Your missing out.

Inga said...

So much hysteria on this thread. What are people so afraid of? Get your damn shot/shots and go about your lives. If the scientific info doesn't comport with your ideas, ignore them and do the minimum, just get your vaccine/vaccines.

Mark said...

My understanding is that the available anti-COVID vaccines produce serum antibodies. But they don't necessarily produce mucosal antibodies (secretory IgA) that prevent infection of the respiratory tract.
So a vaccinated person could still become infected, perhaps asymptomatically, in their nose / throat / windpipe. They would be protected from serious systemic disease.


Yeah, so they might still theoretically be carriers and thus still require the masking and distancing. WHICH MAKES THE "VACCINE" RATHER BESIDE THE POINT, doesn't it? Because there is already a low risk of getting the virus without the vaccine (a low risk, not a zero risk), and because of those that do get it, most will be asymptomatic or otherwise have only mild symptoms, meaning that the vaccine really doesn't do better than nothing.

The whole point of the vaccine is to end the lockdowns and reopen society. If they don't do that, then they are a failure.

Unknown said...

Apparently, the Moderna vaccine has 80% efficacy two to three weeks after the first dose.

"Our results show that for Moderna vaccines with 80% efficacy following the first dose, a delay of 9-12 weeks could enhance the program effectiveness and prevent additional infections, hospitalizations, and deaths, compared to a 4-week interval between the doses."

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.27.21250619v1

I think we should delay the second jab so that more people can get the first dose ASAP.

Yancey Ward said...

"The death curve is bending down more steeply and earlier than it did last year."

The reason is the country is more homogenous with regards to the virus. Last Spring/Summer, you were seeing the first wave staggered geographically as the virus spread out from the coasts and the cities with big international airports, but this Winter it was the entire country (for the most part) uniformly in wave 2. The entire curve will be steeper and more narrow for wave 2. Wave 3 will happen next Winter with the new mutations.

Joe Smith said...

"Paul McCartney and Wings is the most overrated band of all eternaty. I'm sorry you don't like the Doors, Joe. Your missing out."

I'm not a huge Beatles fan but I appreciate their talent.

Compare Paul McCartney as a singer, songwriter, musician (bass, guitar (electric, acoustic), piano (any keyboard), drums, harmonica, violin, etc.) with Jim Morrison (maracas, tambourine).

'Come on baby light my fire.' Sublime.

Joe Smith said...

"The death curve is bending down..."

Isn't that a Bill Clinton thing?

Inga said...

“Because there is already a low risk of getting the virus without the vaccine (a low risk, not a zero risk), and because of those that do get it, most will be asymptomatic or otherwise have only mild symptoms, meaning that the vaccine really doesn't do better than nothing.”

So much obsessing and guessing. As the cases and hospitalizations and deaths fall, social distancing restrictions can be done away with. The sooner we get to herd immunity, so to speak, the sooner the virus has nowhere to replicate. Vaccinating 80% of the population will be a quicker route to herd immunity than waiting for the majority to become infected. The longer the virus is out in the population, the more chances it has to mutate into something even worse than the variants circulating in the population now. Plus people are still dying of Covid in large numbers, despite some people here wanting to deny it. Yesterday alone there were more than 2,700 deaths. Vaccinating the population with a vaccine with a 95% efficacy is sensible.

stevew said...

I'm not allowed to get the vaccine, probably until late summer based on current rates. If I am judged to be at such low risk of contracting a deadly case of the virus that vaccinating me can wait another six months, then I see no need to stay inside, social distance, etc.

Yancey Ward said...

"We need maybe 75% or 80% if we want the virus to die out altogether."

This will never happen- the virus dying out part. This particular strain will die out, but long after it has spawned its mutations. Its family will likely just become another one of the coronaviruses we all catch and transmit regularly year after year. The question I have is,"When do we stop testing for COVID and its mutations?" As long as we continue to run 1.5 million tests/day, we will continue to rack up at least 15,000 "positives"/day, and of those 15,000, 150 will die within a year- that is 50K dead from/with COVID per year from now on. Sure, we might be able to detect the true mortality via excess deaths, but those statistics have lots of noise in them.

Basically, what I am saying is that this pandemic attitude will be with us until we stop testing for it, and I don't know who has the courage to say enough is enough.

Yancey Ward said...

Even worse, the next time we have a modestly worse influenza strain appear, the political pressure to run highly sensitive PCR tests on the general population to detect it will be immense and hard for politicians to resist. We will find ourselves naval gazing 100K cases/day of "Insert City Name" Influenza, along with 1500 deaths/day on a regular basis, with the schools closed and everybody trying to work from home again. When will the madness end? I am not particularly optimistic about it.

LA_Bob said...

Hi, Owen,

You seem to be asking both about viral "competence" and viral load. Some people use the viral load idea to support mask-wearing. The masks don't eliminate exposure but they reduce the amount of virus (viral load) and this slows the spread. That's the thinking.

Here's a podcast from last April by a UK ICU doctor. He dismissed the "viral load" concept because "this virus multiplies so quickly".

https://backtracks.fm/discover/s/what-does-good-look-like/b7152cb4aaf51e65/e/23-covid-19-icu-care-long-term-effects-and-immunity-with-dr-richard-breeze/ea3b1e421308e122

I have no idea who's right on this, but you see how complicated things can be.

As an aside, about ten minutes into the podcast, Dr Breeze describes how he tested positive for antibodies early on even though he never had symptoms. After that he did his rounds without any personal protective equipment. No mask. He wanted to keep his immunity strong. Interesting guy.

"So does the IgA "blindness" mean that the virus gets a strong beach-head and replicates enough to produce a lot of infectivity?"

I take it to mean you can still get a respiratory infection with or without symptoms. How bad it is probably depends on the strength of your innate immune system, which provides protection before antibodies are made.

The vaccine-stimulated IgG antibodies should protect against serious illness in the lower respiratory tract and other internal organs. We'll know how well this works out over the coming months and years.

Also, check out this possible scenario.

https://high-fat-nutrition.blogspot.com/2020/12/igg-iga-and-sniffing-virus-which-stinks.html

Gusty Winds said...

Inga said... If the scientific info doesn't comport with your ideas, ignore them and do the minimum, just get your vaccine/vaccines.just get your vaccine/vaccines.

The is NO trustworthy "scientific" info. NONE.

By bending over for Fauci and Gates you are participating in the biggest medical lie / scandal of our lifetime. A lie used to wreck a thriving economy for political gain. A lie used to commit massive voter fraud and eliminate the voting franchise in America. A lie which was used to destroy small businesses to the benefit of Wal-Mart, Amazon, and Costco. A lie that had put today's children in Democrat run areas years behind everyone else.

You should get ten vaccines Inga. She how much the body can take of the mRNA. Report back and tell us all how you're doing. Two-masks are better than one. Three are better than two. People like you and Voltaire and his pretend to be a teacher wife should wear at least five. Quit your jobs and never leave the house again.

Inga said...

“The is NO trustworthy "scientific" info. NONE.”

What an ignorant comment.

Gusty Winds said...

The ONLY piece of trustworthy "scientific" analysis is that COVID has been all bullshit. The biggest, corrupt manipulation of the American population in our short history.

It has eliminated the land of the free, and helped totalitarians re-define freedom as "selfish".

Congratulations China. You did it with the help and cooperation of so many "intelligent" Americans.

Mark said...

I don't know who has the courage to say enough is enough.

HELLO?? Can you hear us now??

Yeah, I know. We and you and the other shlubs don't count for anything. People smarter than us, like the governors of New York and California and Minister of Truth Jen Psaki know better.

DavidUW said...

My understanding is that the available anti-COVID vaccines produce serum antibodies. But they don't necessarily produce mucosal antibodies (secretory IgA) that prevent infection of the respiratory tract.

So a vaccinated person could still become infected, perhaps asymptomatically, in their nose / throat / windpipe. They would be protected from serious systemic disease. But they could still transmit active, replicating virus from their respiratory tracts. This is supposed to be the basis for continued restrictions and masking in the "vaccine era".

Now, go ahead, tear your hair out and scream and shout and tell me how this is wrong. And please provide a reference.
>>
Disproved by the actual clinical trials of the vaccines. They are both in New England Journal of Medicine articles you can google and get the full article & supplementary data.

If there were virus, even dead virus in the vaccinated groups' nasopharynx/upper respiratory, that would have been detected by the RT-PCR RonaVirus tests conducted on samples collected from those areas (as are all RT-PCR swab tests). This was not the case. As those people would have been counted as "infected" and a "failure" to vaccinate.

THEREFORE THERE IS NO TRANSMISSION FROM SUCCESSFULLY VACCINATED PEOPLE. i.e. 95% of those about 2 weeks after the second dose. Or 85-90% of those 2 weeks out from the first dose.

Repeat after me
THERE IS NO TRANSMISSION OF CORONAVIRUS POSSIBLE FROM 95% OF THE PEOPLE WHO GET VACCINATED.

DavidUW said...

Just going to repeat the earlier comment

THERE IS NO ACTIVE VIRUS IN VACCINATED PEOPLE'S RESPIRATORY TRACT.

THIS WAS TESTED FOR IN THE CLINICAL TRIALS.

This is the standard Rona test, you know the q tip to the back of your nose/throat.
If there's no virus in your nose/throat after vaccination and exposure (and these people were exposed in the clinical trials, as demonstrated by the control group) then you are not transmitting virus. Because the virus is not present.

Any idiot asshole evil "scientist" who says that vaccinated people are capable to infecting others is lying or is opining about two massive, double blind controlled studies that he clearly read nothing of the primary literature. (outside of the 5% who aren't successfully vaccinated).

hstad said...

Blogger stevew said...
"...but why in the US is the government handling the distribution, including the appointment registrations?..." 2/19/21, 8:27 AM

Not sure what you mean by this? Physically the distribution is done by the drug companies via commercial shippers to local hospitals and health providers. If you mean paying for the drugs yeah I agree. But that's similar to past emergencies of major drug pushes.

gadfly said...

Also from the WSJ:

Amid the dire Covid warnings, one crucial fact has been largely ignored: Cases are down 77% over the past six weeks. If a medication slashed cases by 77%, we’d call it a miracle pill. Why is the number of cases plummeting much faster than experts predicted?

In large part because natural immunity from prior infection is far more common than can be measured by testing. Testing has been capturing only from 10% to 25% of infections, depending on when during the pandemic someone got the virus. Applying a time-weighted case capture average of 1 in 6.5 to the cumulative 28 million confirmed cases would mean about 55% of Americans have natural immunity.

Now add people getting vaccinated. As of this week, 15% of Americans have received the vaccine, and the figure is rising fast. Former Food and Drug Commissioner Scott Gottlieb estimates 250 million doses will have been delivered to some 150 million people by the end of March.

Inga said...

There IS some evidence that the vaccines reduce transmisability.

“6. What have they found?

Results so far are preliminary. The most extensive data released concern the vaccine made by AstraZeneca Plc. In a study in the U.K., volunteers are checked for SARS-CoV-2 infections using weekly self-administered nose and throat swabs. According to results as of Dec. 7, after a single dose, the group that received the vaccine had 67% fewer positive swabs than the placebo group, suggesting the vaccine cuts down on infections as well as disease. Earlier, Moderna Inc. reported similar results from people who had received a single dose of its vaccine as of November.
7.

What other evidence do we have?

Data from Israel, which has inoculated a higher percentage of its population than any other country, provide clues that the vaccine in use there, from Pfizer Inc. and BioNTech SE, may reduce transmission even if it doesn’t protect against infection. After more than 75% of people age 60 or older had received one vaccine dose and only 25% of those between the ages of 40 and 60 had, researchers from Israel’s biggest coronavirus testing lab looked at their data. For those who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2, there was a notable difference between the two age groups in the average amount of virus found in test swabs. The researchers estimated that vaccination reduces the viral load by 1.6 to 20 times in individuals who become infected despite the shot. Another study in Israel, following people who became infected after inoculation, found the vaccine reduced their viral load fourfold. Also, a study of Moderna’s Covid vaccine in monkeys suggested that it will reduce, if not completely prevent, onward transmission of the virus.“

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/can-a-vaccinated-person-still-spread-the-coronavirus/2021/02/18/508ab598-71af-11eb-8651-6d3091eac63f_story.html

tim in vermont said...

"The reason is the country is more homogenous with regards to the virus. Last Spring/Summer, you were seeing the first wave staggered geographically as the virus spread out from the coasts and the cities with big international airports, but this Winter it was the entire country (for the most part) uniformly in wave 2. The entire curve will be steeper and more narrow for wave 2. Wave 3 will happen next Winter with the new mutations.”

Assuming that all of your so far unsupported assumptions all play out, it stands to reason that the hypothesis you posit here is correct. I will give you that. Now show your work.

I guess I will bookmark this thread because I am going to bet here that next winter there will be a mild wave of little significance unless 40% or more of people are vaccine refuseniks. But even then, I am betting that those refusing will tend to be among the healthier people at lower risk.

These are bets based on assumptions, yours and mine. Mine is the assumption that the vaccine of the most vulnerable and the naturally building immunity will bring R0 far enough below 1 even in the coronavirus peak season next winter to reduce this to an issue that mostly concerns the medical community.

If the treatments that India claims have worked pan out, then it will be completely over.

Howard said...

Also, numbers dropped because people got social distancing religion during the recent peak deathly spike.

Howard said...

CAN YOU TELL I'M DESPERATE FOR YOU TO BUY MY BULLSHIT?

tim in vermont said...

Nobody knows about transmissibility in the vaccinated for sure, but if this were a “preponderance of the evidence” case, I am thinking the jury would say “no.”

Still that is not a definite no, so I am not going to expose people who haven’t consented, to my indoors unmasked breathings.

stevew said...

@hstad: my bad, when I wrote distribution I meant vaccination, as in arranging for and the giving of the shots, not the manufacturing and logistics of delivering to the states. The state of MA had a huge snafu this week with an appointment application that failed under load. I've since read that some states are buying and coordinating but allowing the healthcare providers to manage the appointment making and shot giving.

Gusty Winds said...

David UW said… Any idiot asshole evil "scientist" who says that vaccinated people are capable to infecting others is lying or is opining about two massive, double blind controlled studies that he clearly read nothing of the primary literature

We’ll here our resident American Evil “Scientist” Anthony Fauci on CNN yesterday saying exactly that with Anderson Cooper taking him completely seriously.

I’m not saying David UW is wrong. He seems well read on this. But this is why I claim there is NO trustworthy data. Seems everyone with some fame to gain via COVID is lying out their ass. To me, Anthony Fauci’s lack of honesty is further proof it’s all bullshit. Fauci is such an asshole. That's the only available truth.

And here is an article from Smithsonian Magazine. Title and subtitle: “Yes, You Should Still Wear a Mask After Covid-19 Vaccination. Experts don’t yet know if Covid-19 vaccines prevent the virus’ spread—and it may take months to find out”

Inga said...

“When will we know more?

As vaccination becomes more widespread, researchers should be able to discern the effect on infection and transmission patterns, although it can be difficult to distinguish the impact of inoculations from that of measures such as lockdowns and mask mandates. The completion of the vaccine trials testing for asymptomatic infections will bring additional information. Two trials are expected to finish in April. However, one is of a vaccine from China’s Sinovac Biotech Ltd., which has a reported efficacy rate as low as 50% against symptomatic disease. The other tests the Russian Gamaleya Research Institute’s shot, whose efficacy rate against symptoms was 92% in clinical trials, but it’s a small study. September should bring the completion of sizable trials of highly efficacious vaccines. Results for the shots that have proved most effective at preventing disease (95%), from Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech, aren’t expected until October 2022 and January 2023, respectively.”

People need to stop with the hysterical overreactions and be patient. The notion that Covid is/was not a world wide threat and “not worse than seasonal flu” has kept people believing in the fantasy that Covid isn’t real. Don’t be ignorant.

DavidUW said...

We’ll here our resident American Evil “Scientist” Anthony Fauci on CNN yesterday saying exactly that with Anderson Cooper taking him completely seriously.
>>
Exactly. Fraudci is neither a scientist, nor a doctor. He is a bureaucrat.

Buried in that Smithsonian speculation piece is the commentary that yes, if there is no virus in the mucosa, there is no transmission.

Which, of course, is precisely what the clinical trials measured to determine if you were infected with the Rona or not.

DavidUW said...

People need to stop with the hysterical overreactions and be patient
>>
No

You idiots/tyrants need to accept the science.

The science has clearly demonstrated both in clinical trials and continued real world data that transmission is reduced to negligible levels after vaccination.

Gusty Winds said...

Gadfly said… Cases are down 77% over the past six weeks. If a medication slashed cases by 77%, we’d call it a miracle pill. Why is the number of cases plummeting much faster than experts predicted?....In large part because natural immunity from prior infection is far more common than can be measured by testing. Testing has been capturing only from 10% to 25% of infections… Now add people getting vaccinated

Six weeks after the installation of America’s first unelected, senile ruler, the COVID numbers which were manipulated, exaggerated, hidden, and distorted throughout 2020 to for political gain start to plummet and people actually believe there is a “scientific” explanation.

No wonder America is flushing itself down the toilet. We’re morons.

Inga said...

Get your vaccines, stop obsessing over theories that aren’t proven or disproven yet. Live your lives. Even if not perfect, a vaccinated population is a far better option than an unvaccinated one in which Covid is still killing people in large numbers.

Inga said...

“No wonder America is flushing itself down the toilet. We’re morons.”

Speak for yourself.

Mark said...

Why is the number of cases plummeting much faster than experts predicted?

The anti-Trump pressure to hype and sensationalize has decreased. There will still be some of that in their continued lust for power over people's lives to justify the lockdowns, but it will be a bit less.

DavidUW said...

>>
may reduce transmission even if it doesn’t protect against infection. After more than 75% of people age 60 or older had received one vaccine dose and only 25% of those between the ages of 40 and 60 had, researchers from Israel’s biggest coronavirus testing lab looked at their data. For those who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2, there was a notable difference between the two age groups in the average amount of virus found in test swabs. The researchers estimated that vaccination reduces the viral load by 1.6 to 20 times in individuals who become infected despite the shot.
>>

Yes, inga, you moron.
EVEN IN VACCINE FAILURES, transmission is reduced.
THERE IS NO TRANSMISSION FROM THE 95% OF PEOPLE WHO ARE SUCCESSFULLY VACCINATED.

get it through your fucking sub moronic skull

tim in vermont said...

How irresponsible of Trump to focus on getting shots in people’s arms instead of holding the vaccine back in a large stockpile to hand over to Biden so he could take all of the credit. That’s what Harris the pre-election anti-vaxxer is complaining about. I think that between the two of them, they still don’t have enough IQ to toast white bread.

Inga said...

Less hysteria would be a better way to proceed.

tim in vermont said...

I always find it more convincing when somebody writes in all caps. It suggests that their response comes from carefully weighed evidence and well considered arguments, and not just some emotional outburst.

Inga said...

“Yes, inga, you moron.
EVEN IN VACCINE FAILURES, transmission is reduced.
THERE IS NO TRANSMISSION FROM THE 95% OF PEOPLE WHO ARE SUCCESSFULLY VACCINATED.

get it through your fucking sub moronic skull”

I’m agreeing that there is LESS transmissibility after the vaccine. That’s why I posted the article from WaPo, DUH. What are you so fucking upset over?

Yancey Ward said...

Tim, there will not be a third wave if we don't test for it. If we continue to offer free COVID testing, and especially test designed specifically for the mutant strains of the virus, then we will get a third wave. It is Schroedinger's Virus.

Yancey Ward said...

The virus is endemic now- its progeny will circulate forever in the same seasonal pattern all other respiratory viruses have. If our goal becomes eradication, we are fucked.

Yancey Ward said...

You have a choice- you either believe the vaccine is effective or you don't. I personally think the vaccine is effective enough to do away with the mandated masking and distancing guidelines at all levels by this Summer (I think they can be eliminated now, but the politics say otherwise).

What isn't tenable is believing the vaccine works and still mandating the top down NPIs. This policy isn't going to coexist with a free society on any level. We will eventually get a violent backlash and/or continued degradation in the respect for our moronic elites. Our mandated policies were sheer idiocy a year ago and even moreso today.

Yancey Ward said...

I realize a lot of you can't give up the on the ineffective policy measures- this is why there is such resistance to both accepting the vaccine and accepting that the policy measures have to end.

The way it looks to me right now, a lot of you will be wearing masks for the rest of your lives. I don't have a problem with that as long as you don't try to force me to follow your preferences.

tim in vermont said...

I ignore cases and tests and only look at deaths associated with COVID. That’s my metric for a third way. I think that the official COVID death count probably is highly correlated to the actual COVID death count so trends are probable accurate. Tests are problematic for a lot of reasons, not all having to do with conspiracies. Tests and cases and “positivity” are distractions.

tim in vermont said...

By the metric of COVID deaths, I feel like (words chosen carefully) we will be well out of the woods by summer and next winter will not be so bad. Of course if cases keep leaking over the Mexican border, which is Biden policy, who knows?

Gusty Winds said...

I'm trying to decide who is a bigger fraud. Fauci or Inga.... It's close....

But...I'm sure she considers herself in good company.

Yancey Ward said...

The way we are counting deaths, Tim, is directly linked to the way we are testing. COVID was deadly enough to give a signal that could be seen in all cause mortality, but that won't always be the case. If we continue to test for COVID at 1.5 million/day, we will find 15,000 positives/day and 1% of those 15,000 each day will be dead by the end of the year from some cause. Using the present guidelines, at 1.5 million test/day, COVID will be linked to 50,000+ deaths/year.

The testing regime has to end at some point, or the pandemic never really will. Worse is that we will start doing this for influenza now that we have the infrastructure to do PCR tests on this kind of scale. And we clearly don't have the emotional intelligence any longer to put risks into their proper perspective. I feel like we are in a cul de sac we won't easily escape now.

Yancey Ward said...

Just read Inga's comments here. She is representative of at least half the country.

Yancey Ward said...

Who is going to stand up and say, "We will no longer pay for unrestricted RT-PCR testing?" Can you imagine this being said by Anthony Fauci, the weirdo from PA Biden hired, or Biden/Harris themselves? Such testing is likely to be a permanent feature of medical surveillance and will spread out to include other viruses, and the results will used to shut down businesses, schools, etc. on a recurring basis.

Mark said...

If our goal becomes eradication

Two days after Ash Wednesday - remember you are dust and unto dust you shall return - that is exactly what the goal is for many: the vain attempt at the eradication of death itself.

"If the lockdowns save just one life, they are worth it!"

Inga said...

“Just read Inga's comments here. She is representative of at least half the country.”

Yancey Ward, the guy who said there would be no more than 7,500 Covid deaths in the US, tops.

“The testing regime has to end at some point, or the pandemic never really will.”

Another brilliant comment from Yancey.

My metric is hospitalizations and death, I’m not fixated on testing, but testing still has a place. Those who think that because there is less testing there are less cases...well, not impressive. The virus exists in human bodies, testing or no testing.

Gusty Winds said...

Yancey Ward said...Who is going to stand up and say, "We will no longer pay for unrestricted RT-PCR testing?" Can you imagine this being said by Anthony Fauci, the weirdo from PA Biden hired, or Biden/Harris themselves? Such testing is likely to be a permanent feature of medical surveillance and will spread out to include other viruses, and the results will used to shut down businesses, schools, etc. on a recurring basis.

Yup. You’re right on the money. Remember when Michael Jackson would wear a surgical mask in public and everyone thought he was nuts and a hypochondriac?

Now were all Michael Jackson. Except…we wear two masks and two gloves.

Yancey Ward said...

But you only know a hospitalized patient has COVID because.....wait for it......he was tested for COVID.

If the regime is to test every hospital patient for COVID using RT-PCR, then you are guaranteed to find that 1 to 5% of the admitted patients test positive for COVID depending on how competent the lab running the test is.

What are you going to do if excess deaths returns to baseline next year, but COVID is still linked to 50K deaths? What are going to do if influenza A and B get their own tests to keep the testing labs and all their new staff employed running tests and they show 50-100K deaths every year in that same all-cause mortality? Will you then be clamoring for distancing, mandating masking, closing schools, restaurants, and barber shops when "spikes" are found?

Curious George said...

"Our species has survived only because it is unhappy with natural processes and decides to use science and technology to screw with them for its own benefit. So an HIV vaccine would be a pure blessing."

LOL. "While our ancestors have been around for about six million years, the modern form of humans only evolved about 200,000 years ago. Civilization as we know it is only about 6,000 years old, and industrialization started in the earnest only in the 1800s.Jan 19, 2015"


Seems we survived without it for quite some time.

Jim at said...

In the mean time we both wear double masks when in public.

Why only two? Why not 10?

Stupid, fucking sheep.

DavidUW said...

I’m agreeing that there is LESS transmissibility after the vaccine. That’s why I posted the article from WaPo, DUH. What are you so fucking upset over?
>>
Because, Inga, you lying sack of shit, in the prior post, you write of "having to wait."

The data are available RIGHT NOW and have been for MONTHS.

You, Fraudci, the teachers' unions and the entire collection of morons running this shit are putting off everyone else's lives while you collect your paychecks on vacation.

Fuck all of them.

Open. Now.

Spiros Pappas said...

Serological surveys indicate that at most only around a fifth of the population have antibodies. Even if you couple that figure with 5% of the population getting vaccines (great job Joe!), we should be nowhere near herd immunity. But something is happening. We have a lot less cases and deaths.

At some point, we have to accept that there is pre-existing immunity in the population (as the T cell studies may be indicating) and that the herd immunity threshold is much lower than that based on R0 alone.

Next up, how many of the Covid deaths were caused by the lockdown and not the disease...

DavidUW said...

>>
always find it more convincing when somebody writes in all caps. It suggests that their response comes from carefully weighed evidence and well considered arguments, and not just some emotional outburst.>>>
>>
well, timmy, you little crapweasel in Vermont, you're too stupid for normal words.

Jim at said...

and do the minimum, just get your vaccine/vaccines.

No.

How 'bout that?

And it's you people screaming in fear. You've been doing it for 12, fucking months.
Do the minimum and go to hell.

I'm Not Sure said...

"If our goal becomes eradication, we are fucked."

Wait for it...

DavidUW said...

At some point, we have to accept that there is pre-existing immunity in the population (as the T cell studies may be indicating) and that the herd immunity threshold is much lower than that based on R0 alone.
>>
This is demonstrated by the fact that in an average household of 4, only 1-2 gets infected, and that's in a group of people LIVING TOGETHER. (the average infection percent ranges in studies from 25-50%, averaging around 36%).

It's hard to imagine "herd immunity" requires a much higher infection rate than that.


Inga said...

“Because, Inga, you lying sack of shit, in the prior post, you write of "having to wait."”

You idiot. We will have to wait before we know for sure. We don’t have to wait to live our lives until we know for sure. No you can keep yelling in ALL CAPS until the cows come home, you don’t know for sure about transmission after vaccination, you just THINK you do. The research is ongoing despite your hysteria.

I'm Not Sure said...

"This is demonstrated by the fact that in an average household of 4, only 1-2 gets infected, and that's in a group of people LIVING TOGETHER. (the average infection percent ranges in studies from 25-50%, averaging around 36%)."

Diamond Princess cruise ship.

3,711 passengers and crew.

712 infections.

TheOne Who Is Not Obeyed said...

Inga is being sexist by using the sexist term "hysteria".

She just wants everyone to just wear the yellow star. Things will be fine if we all line up nicely for the box cars. Our betters in the government bureaucracy have told her so.

She's also in favor of those nice camps the Chinese give the Uighurs to demonstrate their cultural differences from the nasty, racist US.

DavidUW said...

3,711 passengers and crew.

712 infections.
>>
Exactly

Night said...

What are the long term effects of the vaccine on reproductive cycles? Where is the mouse study?

Yancey Ward said...

Serological tests for antibodies are usually quite specific. Coronaviruses are nothing unique to the human experience- we have been circulating them among ourselves for thousands of years at a minimum. Pretty much all of us have developed specific immunities against several of them by the time we are adults. There is cross immunity across viral families. It is quite likely that half or less of the population could even get sick with COVID if exposed to it. This is probably true for just about any new strain of coronavirus or influenza. If this weren't true, we would be sick all the time, and we wouldn't even have been born because our ancestors died before reproducing.

Inga said...

“She just wants everyone to just wear the yellow star. Things will be fine if we all line up nicely for the box cars. Our betters in the government bureaucracy have told her so.

She's also in favor of those nice camps the Chinese give the Uighurs to demonstrate their cultural differences from the nasty, racist US.”
—————————————————
You can take the Trumpist out of QAnon, but you can’t take the QAnon out of the Trumpist.

Night said...

Public health official and federal leaders miss the point of the pandemic.

This is an easy pandemic so far compared to the history of pandemics.

Instead of using fear as an excuse to control populations maybe be resilient and collect pandemic best practices.

These state and local governments all have pandemic plans and emergency plans that they roll up to FEMA. Why am I not seeing a council of 50 governors sharing what works and what doesn't? That is the best way to manage the risk.

Why are we playing CNN roulette with public health?

Yancey Ward said...

We know what policies worked best overall. Sweden showed the way early on, and still does.

Jersey Fled said...

I'm getting a kick out of watching those who want this panic to go on forever argue about how many angels can dance on the head of a pin, when the clear evidence is that cases, hospitalizations, and deaths are dropping like a rock.

They give us hypotheticals, maybes, and theoreticals, but never seem to actually quantify the risk. Or back it up with real, double blind randomized studies. You know, the kind they demand from the rest of us. Like why we should wear not one but two masks forever.

I worked with a guy who survived two fatal airline crashes. In the second, he was one of only 15 people who survived. Yes, it can happen. But do we ban air travel forever because of this once in a billion happenstance?

Give me hard data, quantify the risk and the benefits, and maybe I'll begin to listen to you.

DavidUW said...

you don’t know for sure about transmission after vaccination, you just THINK you do.
>>
No. I know.

The data is right there in the fucking studies.

tim in vermont said...

"We know what policies worked best overall. “

You have been using pretzel logic on Swdeden the whole time, you can come up with a hundred reasons, I am guessing if pressed, why we don’t have any way of knowing why they did so much worse than their nearest and most similar neighbors, but when it comes to pretending to prove your opinions are right, you “know.” You are just projecting your political fears into the future and hammering the table with your prejudices. Right now we are just guessing.

We can assess next January who was right.

3,711 passengers and crew.

712 infections.


After everybody locked themselves in their cabins once it became known that the virus was on board. Now use your model to explain Italy.

tim in vermont said...

"well, timmy, you little crapweasel in Vermont”

And I thought that all caps were convincing...

DavidUW said...

Gee Timmy. It’s interesting that on a ship about 20-30% got infected and in households 36% get infected or in the same ballpark.

Now tell us how locking into cabins made a difference.

tim in vermont said...

I asked you to explain how if the virus was so hard to transmit, Italy and NYC happened, and yet you keep fucking that same chicken, to use a phrase you guys seem to like.

Inga said...

It would seem it’s the people who are anti every single mitigation practice including vaccines are the ones who want this pandemic to go on indefinitely.

jaydub said...

"712 infections."

TIV: You forgot to mention that the average age of the passengers was 69 yet 410 of those cases were asymptomatic, and only 13 of the passengers died. All the fatalities, and most of the hospital admissions were people in their 70's and 80's, all with co-morbidities. And, by the way, they were not locked in their cabins until 2 weeks after the infection started, the ventilation system was always on but had no significant filtration system, Plus, they were tended by and interacted the crew (average age 36), 145 of whom were also infected but most asymptomatic. In other words, this event was like a norovirus outbreak on a cruise ship, only more deadly for a dozen elderly with comorbidities. Ten years from now when the politics have been forgotten people are going to remember 2020 and ask "Why the fuck did we do what we did?"

LA_Bob said...

From the World Health Organization:

https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/media-resources/science-in-5/episode-23---i-am-vaccinated-what-next?gclid=Cj0KCQiA4L2BBhCvARIsAO0SBdauT7ylmhdNlOq8cYm3gm4pDN2yQPk4oAHZOnIlYEKSgzfPJ5aNuZkaAqhwEALw_wcB

"...
Vismita Gupta-Smith

Kate, after one has been vaccinated, can one still catch COVID-19 and can one also infect others?

Dr. Katherine O'Brien

That's a great question. The clinical trials demonstrated that these vaccines protect people against disease. What we don't know yet from the clinical trials is whether or not the vaccines also protect people from just getting infected with the SARS-CoV-2 virus and whether or not it protects against transmitting to somebody else. So, this is a really important part of our understanding about what these vaccines do. Do they only protect against disease or do they also protect against getting infected and being able to transmit to somebody else, even if you're not having any symptoms?
..."

DavidUW is a little too sure of his position on this.

My concern has been that "cases" and deaths after vaccination will sour public confidence. There's already a rash of "medical professionals" who don't want the vaccine. This kind of thing just perpetuates the "lockdown" mentality gripping the government.

Of course, reducing the PCR cycle threshold will do wonders to make the vaccine look good.

jaydub said...

"Of course, reducing the PCR cycle threshold will do wonders to make the vaccine look good."

And raising it to 40 will make the disease look really frightening. Oops, we already did that.

Jersey Fled said...

Inga:

Just to be clear, I received my first dose of the Moderna vaccine on February 11th. I'm scheduled for my second dose on March 11th.

I respect everyone's right to either get the vaccine or not get it. Thats what freedom of choice is. You don't give up that right lightly.

So I guess you can't be talking about me.

DavidUW said...

“Dr” O’Brian is a piece of shit Mick, who like all Irish should be drowned in the ocean.

Perhaps the idiot “dr” would like to explain how people who have no virus in their respiratory tract can spread that nonexistent virus.

Inga said...

“Just to be clear, I received my first dose of the Moderna vaccine on February 11th. I'm scheduled for my second dose on March 11th.”

Good! No one forced you to get the vaccine, now did they?

“I respect everyone's right to either get the vaccine or not get it. Thats what freedom of choice is. You don't give up that right lightly.”

That’s fine. I’m hoping the more intelligent people will see the benefit of getting the vaccine. What made you decide to get it? Just curious.

BillieBob Thorton said...

DavidUW said...

At some point, we have to accept that there is pre-existing immunity in the population (as the T cell studies may be indicating) and that the herd immunity threshold is much lower than that based on R0 alone.
>>
This is demonstrated by the fact that in an average household of 4, only 1-2 gets infected, and that's in a group of people LIVING TOGETHER. (the average infection percent ranges in studies from 25-50%, averaging around 36%).

There are six in our household, four adults and two children under the age of ten. My wife contracted covid but no one else in the household was infected. So, 1 out of four adults became infected and neither of the kids. My wife experienced symptoms similar to a mild cold. I am 71 and the wife is 69 the other adults are under 40.

DavidUW said...

Timmy you chicken fucker I never said it was hard to transmit.

The actual real world data show somewhere between 20-40% of a contained population gets infected.

I also stated, and the data show, that those vaccinated do not have the virus in the nasopharyngeal region from which samples are taken and tested for virus. This means there will be no transmission from the 95% of people who, when vaccinated, mount an effective immune response.

Now put the poor chicken down

Jersey Fled said...

Simple. I reviewed the evidence and found it compelling.

I find the evidence for other mitigation efforts, like two wearing masks or keeping schools locked down indefinitely, less so.

As for asymptomatic spread, I agree with the CDC that it is possible but rare. I don't agree that it should be the basis for public policies that may in and of themselves may be destructive.

Jersey Fled said...

BTW my post above was a response to Inga's question.

Inga said...

‘...and the data show, that those vaccinated do not have the virus in the nasopharyngeal region from which samples are taken and tested for virus. This means there will be no transmission from the 95% of people who, when vaccinated, mount an effective immune response.”

How about a link to the studies you keep yelling about? Are you getting confused between immunity from having had natural Covid and immunity from the vaccine? If one has had natural Covid one DOES 100% get nasopharyngeal immunity as well as serum immunity. BUT that is not the case with the vaccine.

tolkein said...

The evidence so far is that first shot cuts transmission by around 67% from the first dose (Israel re Pfizer, and Oxford/Lancet for Astra Zeneca). Pfizer efficacy one shot is c92% and at least 62% (I've seen higher c73%for Astra Zeneca in recent studies, which are coming daily as there are real live studies with millions of participants now),BUT, even with first shot NO hospitalisations, NO deaths. So what if I'm not 100% protected, if I'm not going to die or be ill enough to go to hospital, then job done.

Which makes giving people a second Pfizer/Moderna jab after 3/4 weeks, when it barely increases efficacy almost criminal if it means someone is left with no protection. The UK JCVI made a good call, and many lives will be saved because of it.

Jersey Fled said...

Inga:

I'm confused. Didn't you just say that that "there will be no transmission from the 95% of people who, when vaccinated, mount an effective immune response.”

Inga said...

“I'm confused. Didn't you just say that that "there will be no transmission from the 95% of people who, when vaccinated, mount an effective immune response.””

No, I didn’t say that. That is a quote from David UW at 4:59 PM.

Jersey Fled said...

Inga:

So let's keep this simple.

What exactly is it that you are arguing with me about?

Inga said...

“What exactly is it that you are arguing with me about?”

Huh? Hahahaha, I was going to ask you the same thing. You directed the first comment to me, I responded to you, I’m not disagreeing with you on getting the vaccine.

My 5:11 comment was directed at DavidUW, not you in case you’re thinking I was talking to you.

Peace and love, I have no argument with you.

DavidUW said...

Inga. The studies for both vaccines have been published in the New England journal of medicine.

Freely available.

Go fuck yourself.

Inga said...

“The studies for both vaccines have been published in the New England journal of medicine.”

So then how hard is it for you to prove your loudmouth yelling that you’ve been doing all day. Provide the link that proves what you assert it says. The onus is on you to prove your assertions. I knew that once someone asked for the link you’d fall apart.

DavidUW said...

Inga,
I am not confused about the idiotic distinction you are now parroting from an "expert" or 2 who have been quoted by the usual fear mongers.

>>
If one has had natural Covid one DOES 100% get nasopharyngeal immunity as well as serum immunity. BUT that is not the case with the vaccine.
>>
The vaccine gives nasopharyngeal "immunity" you fucking moron. That's what I've been writing from the beginning.

How do you test for the 'Rona? Both in "real life" and in these clinical studies?
You stick a swab in the person's nose/throat and collect a sample. Run the RT-PCR process and see if there is viral genetic material.

The viral genetic material was NOT detected in samples from VACCINATED people in the CLINICAL studies.
What does this mean?
That vaccinated people, who were assuredly exposed to the virus as were the unvaccinated people, did not get infected.
They were not infected, and the virus did not hang out in the nasopharyngeal region from which virus is expelled during a sneeze or cough or heavy breathing to infect others.

Therefore, vaccinated people WILL NOT transmit the 'Rona.


Josephbleau said...

"and yet you keep fucking that same chicken, to use a phrase you guys seem to like."

I certainly would not do that to the same chicken, it is un-hygenic.

DavidUW said...

Inga, Fuck you.
I don't do orders from idiots like you who can't even google.
Moderna's study was published February 4, 2021. NEJM

Pfizer's was published on 12-31-2020.

New England Journal of Medicine for both.

Inga said...

“I don't do orders from idiots like you who can't even google.
Moderna's study was published February 4, 2021. NEJM

Pfizer's was published on 12-31-2020.”

So prove quotes that proves what you THINK they are saying. Why should wade through when I’ve already provided links, as well as Bob provided you with quotes and links. When you yell assertions all day, the onus is on you to prove them. You not being willing to do so doesn’t reflect well on you credibility. I’m not ordering you, I’m challenging you and I see you’re unable to rise to the challenge.

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