December 14, 2020

"Maybe New Yorkers have a little PTSD, but what we went through in the spring with all these experts giving us advice and the advice turned out to be wrong..."

"... all this anecdotal information. We invested very heavily in doing COVID testing and we do more testing than any state in the nation, but that gives us actual facts that we can base our actions upon. And we’ve now done 21 million tests.... On the facts, what we’re seeing, schools are almost without exception, safer than local communities, in terms of infection rate. This was not what was initially expected. Initially, some of the experts said, 'Well, schools are like mass gatherings, and if you get a lot of students together, there’s going to be a spread.' That is not what has happened. That’s not what the facts say. The facts say, that the schools are actually following the rules and following the guidance, the children are following the guidance.... Now, this is a decision that has been left to the local school districts.... City of Buffalo recently announced they’re going to keep their schools closed. I respect local governments, I respect the prerogative of local governments with education. I understand the balance, but my advice, and if you look across the nation, and you look across the world, most informed experts will say test in the schools, but if the schools are safer, then leave the schools open."

Said Governor Andrew Cuomo yesterday (transcript). Not sure what he means to say about "experts" — "all these experts giving us advice and the advice turned out to be wrong" and "most informed experts will say test in the schools, but if the schools are safer, then leave the schools open." I think he means, we've got to listen to the experts and follow their advice, but I understand your "PTSD" about expert advice. There's a limit to how much people are going to accept being told to listen to the experts — especially as the experts themselves change as they get more data — but what else are you going to do? 

78 comments:

Curious George said...

Did the "experts" tell you to put Covid infected elders back into nursing homes Governor Nipple Piercing?

One family. Two Fredos. What a POS.

Expat(ish) said...

“Mistakes were made.

Remember to give to my re-election campaign and vote early and often. “

-XC

David Begley said...

If he was a real leader he would force Buffalo to open their schools.

Gahrie said...

but what else are you going to do?

Stop living in hysterical fear of an overblown threat.

gilbar said...

Not sure what he means to say about "experts"

he MEANS,
now that the electoral college has met... Trump's over, we No Longer have to pretend covid is a problem

exhelodrvr1 said...

"We didn't let the crisis go to waste. But now it's time to be realistic."

Gahrie said...

now that the electoral college has met... Trump's over, we No Longer have to pretend covid is a problem

That's what I thought they were going to do. Instead they're talking about imposing another three month long near total lockdown. The question is...will the American people submit?

Kevin said...

There's a limit to how much people are going to accept being told to listen to the experts — especially as the experts themselves change as they get more data — but what else are you going to do?

The people also have data. They are just told to ignore it.

stevew said...

Experts who are advising without data are giving opinions, that these opinions are often proved incorrect should not be a surprise. And we are continuously told to focus on the data that doesn't tell us much about how the virus spreads (cases). By testing only the ill and those that request a test we will never get closer to understanding how the virus operates.

The PTSD comes from the knowledge that our political leaders are, at best, just rummaging around in the dark for answers. MA governor Charlie Baker is reported to have the support of 72% of the people in the state for his handling of the virus crisis (down 10 points). Who cares what the people think? MA has some of the highest case rates and total deaths in the country. That's handling the crisis well? Cuomo is worse. His comments about cases and transmission rates being low in schools applies to bars and restaurants too, yet he's shut all that down again.

mockturtle said...

There's a limit to how much people are going to accept being told to listen to the experts — especially as the experts themselves change as they get more data — but what else are you going to do?

Try using common sense?

Shouting Thomas said...

Trump has been the only sane, intelligent political actor of the past 4 years, Althouse, and you keep insisting that he’s weird.

Cuomo is the Nazi dictator of our nightmares. Everything is upside down. Cuomo went after the churches and synagogues with a vengeance.

Trump delivered a vaccine in 6 months.

I haven’t been able to make any sense out of your commentary on Trump, prof. Really, you’ve been dense as a brick here.

You asked a while ago how the Jacobin left could be restrained. The answer was obviously Trump. How in the fuck did you fail to see this?

Leland said...

There were a lot of commenters to this blog in March that gave better advice than what Cuomo relied upon, and nobody is calling them experts. If they had listened to us, schools would have never closed.

wendybar said...

Killer Cuomo is arresting innocent people who are trying to open their businesses that are going to close for good because they can't afford to keep them open, yet he is letting criminals out of prison, slapping the wrists of looters and rioters, patting himself on the back because the left is in love with him....and yet people still listen to this goober. He is killing NYC one day at a time. I know I have no desire to EVER step foot there again since his little brown shirts have made it a 3rd world slum....

jaydub said...

Don't know about NY but in NC school age kids (17 and under) account for about 8% of positive tests(which does not necessarily equate to cases!), less than 1% of hospitalizations and zero percent of the deaths. Listen the the experts my ass. Analyze the data, recognize that it's more dangerous for a school age kid to stay home than be in class and then OPEN THE EFFING SCHOOLS! Screw the teachers' unions. If they had their way they would never reopen the schools so long as they were getting paid anyway.

Gahrie said...

OPEN THE EFFING SCHOOLS! Screw the teachers' unions. If they had their way they would never reopen the schools so long as they were getting paid anyway.

It's harder to teach online than in person.

The reason the schools are closed is because the profession is dominated by middle class White women who have been terrified by the media and the political left. Facts and reason don't matter.

mezzrow said...

what else are you going to do?

Move to Florida?

cacimbo said...

On 12/11/20 Cuomo said that there was no evidence hair salons were a significant source of spread; therefore, hair salons in orange zones could open on 12/14/20.

Cuomo gave no explanation why hair salons should continue to lose business for three additional days.Perhaps reasoning like this is why so many in the public have lost faith in "experts".

Mr Wibble said...

Trump has been the only sane, intelligent political actor of the past 4 years, Althouse, and you keep insisting that he’s weird.

Cuomo is the Nazi dictator of our nightmares. Everything is upside down. Cuomo went after the churches and synagogues with a vengeance.

Trump delivered a vaccine in 6 months.

I haven’t been able to make any sense out of your commentary on Trump, prof. Really, you’ve been dense as a brick here.


They hated Trump not because he was some sort of incompetent buffoon, but because they were. Trump exposed them as such.

Shouting Thomas said...

I really appreciate your blog, Althouse, but your performance in respect to Trump in the past year has convinced me that you simply don’t understand performance, competence and pragmatism in the real world.

Your intelligence exists in another academic, theoretical universe, and it’s pretty impressive there.

Trump almost always does the right thing out of decades of managerial experience.

And you don’t comprehend. It’s been amazing to observe this total gap in your understanding.

I think that this is the case with most of our experts.

Jersey Fled said...

Schools are closed because teachers like getting paid for staying home and pretending to teach. And their unions give lots of money to Democrats.

stlcdr said...

Leland said...
There were a lot of commenters to this blog in March that gave better advice than what Cuomo relied upon, and nobody is calling them experts. If they had listened to us, schools would have never closed.

12/14/20, 7:02 AM


It’s galled educated guesses from people who live in the real world which has to function. This is what managers and leaders (sic) are supposed to do. You never have all the information, but you know enough about everything - generally through experience and educating yourself - to make the best, or least wrong, decision. You take responsibility for that decision.

Too many people are relying on what experts (google, by any other name) say what should be done.

I’m an expert in my field, but you would never use my decision alone on what should be done at a higher level - I can only advise what can and can’t be done, or what will or may happen under certain conditions.

Bob Boyd said...

Saying, "Listen to the experts" is just politics. There are always experts on both sides. There are always experts on both sides of any contentious issue. Experts aren't possessed of the truth, they aren't wizards. They are making best guesses and they're subject to every human foible, same as the rest of us.
It would be nice if we could just "Listen to the experts", but judgement calls have to be made and you have to be able to change course sometimes.
A guy in Cuomo's position is there because he has sold himself as an expert, an expert at judging which experts to listen to, an expert at making judgement calls. Sometimes he's going to be wrong. When he is, how about taking responsibility? What's this "we" shit? How about a little humility?
Nobody really knew what to do back in March, not Cuomo, not Biden, not Trump, but Cuomo never stopped playing party politics with the pandemic. He loved the attention he was getting as the media cast him in the role of true national leader on Covid, the alternative President. Now he's a victim of those darn experts? Please.
Closing schools made sense at the time. Sending Covid patients to nursing homes was a disaster. He did it out of fear hospitals were going to be overwhelmed. That never happened. Meanwhile the hospitals set up by the Feds and the hospital ship were never used. Was that a political decision? I wonder.

Lucien said...

When “listen to the experts” means “listen to epidemiologists and people with‘Public Health’ degrees” it is question-begging.

The covert premise is that you have decided that maximizing the epidemiological outcome trumps consideration of social, economic, psychological and other medical costs, plus the cost to our republic when citizens become inured to obeying unconstitutional government edicts.

If you can convince me that there are experts in balancing all of these costs and benefits, then maybe I’ll listen to them.

Breezy said...

The experts do not all agree. How are we supposed to follow them? Instead, we need to use our critical thinking skills and common sense to guide our families and communities through safely. We need to use the actual transmission data, and not insert a worst case guess for the transmission rates for bars and restaurants!

Sebastian said...

"especially as the experts themselves change as they get more data"

Especially as many experts turn out to have had no data at all, or to have ignored data, or to have substituted their political judgment for data.

I Have Misplaced My Pants said...

The teacher problem is not that they are lazy - the ones where I live* are working very very hard indeed to teach under weird hybrid schedules - but that many of them are so, so stupid and so immature. They are panicky emotion driven animals with no reasoning ability who feed off each others’ hysteria.

*Texas, though. Your results may vary in states with strong teachers’ unions.

Mike Sylwester said...

Ivor Cummins' new video:

Understanding ICU and Mortality Trends

Kate said...

Luckily you blog on the fly. #googledown

The Gipper Lives said...

China has ordered their Democrat politician-militias to flatten our economy. This is Viceroy-Elect Joe Biden's job assignment.

"We shall nobly save, or meanly lose, the last best hope of earth."

This one is for all the marbles, people.

Temujin said...

The 'experts' have no clothes. They've been clearly exposed over the past 20 years, very badly so in the past 12.

I keep thinking back to the quote from William Buckley, "I Would Rather Be Governed By the First 2,000 People in the Telephone Directory than by the Harvard University Faculty." He said that in 1961.

I would expand it to include our entire media/academia/government complex. Give me 2000 random people in the street over any of them and their pronouncements.

Cuomo was one of those experts who was wrong. Thousands died because he was so wrong. So he wrote a book about leadership in times of crisis. There is your expert behavior.

Kevin said...

Schools cannot reopen until they are paid their demanded ransom to do so.

To do otherwise exposes the shakedown.

mockturtle said...

Trump went to phenomenal lengths to provide NYC with medical relief [which, it turns out, they didn't even use because they didn't really need]. Cuomo kept a large stash of ventilators stored in a warehouse while crying that he didn't have enough. Cuomo is the epitome of sleazy politician.

MayBee said...

One problem is...we listen to some "experts"- the medical experts- but then don't do anything about other aspects of our lives. For example, the owner of my yoga studio is one of the few kinds of businesses shut down for in-person business. And there's no help! It's theft in my opinion, to shut down a business and not give that business anything in return. If the government wants property to build on, it has to compensate the owner. But not if it shuts a business down, apparently!
So....what do the experts say about people who can't operate their business for months on end? Do they say those businesses stay healthy? OR do they say those businesses struggle?

In my state, the experts that said they could get our unemployment system running were apparently wrong. My husband never got his because of a problem at the beginning they later fixed, but apparently have no motivation to go back and relieve the people who got stuck in their problem bin.

There are too many people who are telling us what to do while having no business running things. So yeah, I don't trust the "experts".

jaydub said...

"The reason the schools are closed is because the profession is dominated by middle class White women who have been terrified by the media and the political left. Facts and reason don't matter."

If it is not a union factor maybe you can explain why almost all the states that are not majority unionized have open schools and/or offer both in person and online classes. My two (White) daughters are school teachers, both nationally board certified and non unionized, and they are teaching in person in a district that offers both in person and on-line instruction. All three of my grand kids are attending in person, and because 80% of the parents have elected on line classes for their kids, two of them are in classes of about 1/4 normal size and doing great. My oldest grandson who is in a high school international baccalaureate program has one-on-one instruction in his physics, chemistry, German and calculus classes because the other IB program students (ALL Asian or SW Asian) are all on line because their "non White" parents are the ones who are scared to death of Wuflu. The teachers are not making the decisions regarding open or closed schools except in the unionized districts. If schools are closed in the non union districts it's because of timid administrators or government edict.

Shouting Thomas said...

Professional dispassionate competence has almost disappeared in the U.S.

I could see this coming way back in the mid 95, when the HR departments were flooded with feminists and gay activists.

The quota system, renamed Diversity, became the only allowable principle. And, somehow, rich white brats with degrees from Ivy League colleges were the most egregiously oppressed.

The Chinese still believe in competence and practice it. Every day we learn that another key member of the Democratic Party is on the CCP pad. The incoming administration, and the Cuomo administration, have farmed out all work that demands basic competence to the CCP, leaving us with great “experts” in theories.

Todd said...

Now that enough of the voters (and fraud) have put the Dems back in the White House, the beatings will ease up some. We all still need to be punished [of course] for our transgressions AND Dem pols love them some fascism so we are not out of the woods yet. On the bright side, they may be feeling magnanimous come the new year and allow everyone out of their houses for a couple of hours every day. Are you not relieved?

iowan2 said...

re, schools, Its cute people think govt decided to shut down schools. That whole shit show rests on teachers unions.

Gusty Winds said...

These "experts" don't even exist.

Browndog said...

The Chinese communist propaganda is so strong, so pervasive in America, people still refer to these hacks as "experts"...even on Althouse.

henge2243 said...

If you do a little reading about COVID and its reporting, i.e.:

https://www.justfacts.com/news_covid-19_crucial_facts

You'll learn that it wasn't that the experts were wrong. it was that their findings were written about by people who couldn't pass English Literature, majored in journalism instead and had no ability to understand what they were reporting about. That was further compounded by douchebags like Governor Cuomo using the reporting of 'journalists' rather than the work of experts on which to base their policies.

Peggtea said...

King Andrew has, as other commentators noted, killed a lot of nursing home residents, who are still--7 months in--not allowed to see their loved ones, while he opens gyms because of threatened lawsuits and suddenly discovered "science." House of worship are still strictly controlled, restaurants are opened and closed weekly, etc. A national policy on closings tied to some sort of metric would have been nice, but failing that, state "leaders" like Cuomo should stay out of the edict business and state legislators should person up and call him out.

gilbar said...

Jersey Fled said...
Schools are closed because teachers like getting paid for staying home and pretending to teach


which, raises a Serious Question
IF instead of Paying teachers to stay home, and Not teach;
we treated them like we did hair stylists and bartenders.... And just cut them off...
How Many Seconds, would it take, before the teachers were DEMANDING their return to class?

I'm guessing 26 seconds; not 10... on account of because teachers are SLOW

Wince said...

I was watching Glengarry Glen Ross last night and realized Andrew Cuomo models himself stylistically after Pacino's character Ricky Roma, down the the accentuated letter "t"s at the ends of words/sentences.

"Did you ever take a dump that made you feel like you slept for 12 hours?"

Explains what Cuomo was thinking when he said to Fauci they were Pacino and De Niro.

Oso Negro said...

"Blogger I Have Misplaced My Pants said...
The teacher problem is not that they are lazy - the ones where I live* are working very very hard indeed to teach under weird hybrid schedules - but that many of them are so, so stupid and so immature. They are panicky emotion driven animals with no reasoning ability who feed off each others’ hysteria.

*Texas, though. Your results may vary in states with strong teachers’ unions.


An unintended consequence of second wave feminism was the great dumbing down of public school teachers and administrators. I have long thought that there must be nearly a full standard deviation in IQ difference between that average public school teacher in 1960 and those of the 21st century.

Oso Negro said...

Blogger Shouting Thomas said...
The Chinese still believe in competence and practice it.


In my experience, they like competence, but avoid accountability. Chinese rig bosses have what they call "dead men". These are workers who are so incompetent that the rig boss is sure they will die on the rig. What can the rig boss do about it? Nothing. No accountability for poor performance, just continued employment. Americans, while not as good as the game we talk, are a bit better about that.

mockturtle said...

No accountability for poor performance, just continued employment. Americans, while not as good as the game we talk, are a bit better about that.

Unless they are in the public sector.

ga6 said...

Well, he played the race/Italian card first so I am free to state he has embraced his inner Benito..

alan markus said...

Anyone on this board from Madison who follows local media or school district issues?

Two weeks ago, there was a media blast about a 17 year old Madison East High School student dying of COVID. Our local paper picked up the AP version with this headline: Madison high school student dies of COVID-19 complications

Madison East High School student may be youngest yet to die of COVID-related illness in Wisconsin

Not sure who the "experts" are that made this determination - perhaps a "Dr." at the Metro Madison School District? The media?

As of yesterday, the Dane County COVID dashboard and the State of Wisconsin COVID page shows 0 deaths of anyone under the age of 20. Maybe the kid did indeed die of COVID, but it is irresponsible to report it as such until the "experts" (health department) has confirmed that.

Glad I live in a city where the school superintendent or local paper would get roasted on a pike if they pulled something like this.

narciso said...

cuomo is doing to his constituents, what ferguson did with his girlfriend who was supposed to be in quarantine,

Oso Negro said...

Blogger mockturtle said...
No accountability for poor performance, just continued employment. Americans, while not as good as the game we talk, are a bit better about that.

Unless they are in the public sector.

Excellent correction, MT! At Instapundit I sometimes label the "we've really got them this time" articles about Democrat politicians as "accountability porn".

Ingachuck'stoothlessARM said...

"Covidius Maximus" dare speak?

"experts" and "settled science" du Jour he used as cudgels

Chris N said...

Has Dr. Jill weighed in?

James K said...

That data Cuomo refers to has shown that restaurants are responsible for ~1% of cases, versus 74% from household gatherings. But he's shutting down indoor dining. Why? Because he can. And I think he enjoys it.

Nonapod said...

Cuomo is an insufferable, incompetent hypocrite who is reasonsible for the deaths of thousands. Of course it's unlikely he'll ever be held to account for it since the bulk of the downstate electorate is deluded and derranged. Instead he's given pointless awards by Hollywood and plenty of air time to spew nonsense like this. I expect he'll be voted back in to office in 2022.

Mary Beth said...

I have long thought that there must be nearly a full standard deviation in IQ difference between that average public school teacher in 1960 and those of the 21st century.

I got my education certification in the '80s. (Didn't end up teaching.) Among my classmates, there were some very bright ones and also the dumbest people I have ever met in my life. The smart ones were majoring in something else but just taking the education classes to get certified so they could teach. The dumbest were majoring in education. The classes we had to take (from my memory) seemed to be a lot of lessons in common sense which some of my fellow students seemed to struggle with greatly. They still all passed.

I suspect it's only gotten worse.

LYNNDH said...

Past my sell date to listen to the "experts".

MadisonMan said...

I was reading the quote, not knowing who said it, and thought it might be Trump.

Achilles said...

Shouting Thomas said...

I really appreciate your blog, Althouse, but your performance in respect to Trump in the past year has convinced me that you simply don’t understand performance, competence and pragmatism in the real world.

Your intelligence exists in another academic, theoretical universe, and it’s pretty impressive there.

Trump almost always does the right thing out of decades of managerial experience.

And you don’t comprehend. It’s been amazing to observe this total gap in your understanding.

I think that this is the case with most of our experts.



We should never elect another lawyer or politician president again.

It is clear that Business executives are far superior.

Sadly the next leader we have will be of a more military persuasion.

hombre said...

Killer Cuomo blames the experts now that Trump may be gone. Thanks, Killer.

Big Mike said...

There are experts and there are experts. When you cherry pick which experts to listen to based on whose expert testimony you find most congenial, then in the end it’s not on “the experts,” it’s on you.

BarrySanders20 said...

Re: Expert advice and what else are you going to do?

1. Not freak out.
2. Be skeptical.
3. Use it as one data point among many.
4. Examine the bias the expert has (who has hired him/her and why are they giving me this unsolicited opinion?)
5. Determine if the expert is actually addressing my situation.
6. Check my own confirmation bias.

And then make my own decision.

Joe Smith said...

Fredo Sr. is an expert at killing old folks, but is a moron in all other fields.

Birkel said...

Well, you could have read the comments at the Althouse blog and gotten better advice.
The main page gave us "wash your shoes".
The comments gave us "protect the vulnerable and don't ruin the whole God damned economy, plus the mental health of the elderly, plus the mental health of the you g, plus cause mass starvation in the Third World".

Read the comments.

AZ Bob said...

Experts exist on both sides of every issue. And if you can't afford to hire one, the court will appoint your expert free of charge.

Joe Smith said...

"One family. Two Fredos. What a POS."

Curious George for the win first out of the chute...

mockturtle said...

Achilles notes: Sadly the next leader we have will be of a more military persuasion.

Um, yes, but let us hope he's not from the current Pentagon tribe.

Skeptical Voter said...

i think Governor Cuomo's meaning is "It's not my fault".

To govern is to choose; and in choosing one should consider all of the information. Governor Cuomo listened to just one set of "experts' and chose--badly.

But he's got competition for the title of the "Biggest Clown" among current state governors. Governors Inslee and Newsom out on the Left Coast are running very close behind and may pip him at the post as it were.

Skeptical Voter said...

i think Governor Cuomo's meaning is "It's not my fault".

To govern is to choose; and in choosing one should consider all of the information. Governor Cuomo listened to just one set of "experts' and chose--badly.

But he's got competition for the title of the "Biggest Clown" among current state governors. Governors Inslee and Newsom out on the Left Coast are running very close behind and may pip him at the post as it were.

Todd said...

AZ Bob said...

Experts exist on both sides of every issue. And if you can't afford to hire one, the court will appoint your expert free of charge.

12/14/20, 11:09 AM


As with most things, you get what you pay for...

Jupiter said...

'Not sure what he means to say about "experts" — "all these experts giving us advice and the advice turned out to be wrong"'

What he means to say is, "Don't blame me for all the people my idiotic mistakes killed. Blamed the experts I relied upon, and continue to rely upon."

Pretty simple, really.

bagoh20 said...

What makes an "expert" have a better opinion? Do we actually know that they looked at the data. I know they all say "the data tells us", but I don't think they look at all that much of it. It seems to me that they just do what everybody else does with confirmation bias, and laziness, and distraction, and most importantly covering their ass, which most of the rest of us are not burdened with. That's why I think a regular informed person or someone in the field with no official capacity or connections can be a more reliable source. They don't have to say things that they don't really believe just to keep their job or to avoid public attack.

Lets face it. A public official simply can't tell you truth even when they know it. It's the fallacy of authority, but it's worse than just undue weight to their opinions. Their opinion should be extra suspect. They have other motives beyond telling you what they know. In reality, they don't even need any facts or data, and I think they spend less time on the data than a real expert would. They have a narrative that overrides that, and it's what they discuss, practice and deliver. The truth can be leaked out later when it has no value left.

Banjo said...

Given everything, it's clear that Governor Cuomo is an outstanding choice for Biden's cabinet, as Joe's minders will explain to the foot-kissing media.

Martin said...

And, all those dead people in nursing homes?

Banjo said...

C'mon, man. What's the deal, you dog-faced pony soldier.

DEEBEE said...

Aiming for another Emmy we wonder!

Joanne Jacobs said...

I've followed this closely and I can't remember a single expert who thought schools -- especially elementary schools -- would be centers of infection. It was clear early on that pre-teen children were very low risk, and that teens were lower risk than adults.
Experts were saying in spring that elementary schools could reopen as long as adults took precautions to not infect each other.

RichAndSceptical said...

Listen to "government approved" experts.

Ambrose said...

New Yorkers - and I am one - always seem to think that whatever is happening to them is uniquely happening to them.