CNN reports.
November 16, 2020
"US stocks rose sharply Monday, and the Dow was closing in on 30,000, after Moderna said its experimental Covid-19 vaccine was 94.5% effective against the coronavirus."
"Last week, Pfizer (PFE) said that a vaccine it developed with German drugmaker BioNTech was more than 90% effective against Covid-19."
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People on Scott Adams’ Twitter timeline arguing about how we need to continue wearing masks even after vaccine “for the good of the country” and also because we can save “thousands of lives” from flu and TB.
Fauci being quoted as saying we need to continue distancing even after vaccine.
It’s an insane purity cult now and needs to be called out as such. Not that I expect any help doing so.
What timing!
As always, beware of media outlets ascribing causation to coincident current events.
Trump and his push to get a vaccine fast will get no credit.
The Moderna vaccine is also easier to distribute than the Pfizer vaccine. The former requires -20 degrees F storage and is refrigerator stable for 30 days. The latter requires -70 degrees F storage and is refrigerator stable for only 5 days.
When can we go back to eating bats?
I do believe that Pfizer, and the FDA, delayed their vaccine announcement until after the Presidential election to help Biden.
Anybody who wants to wear a mask and social distance can do so on their own, can they not? Who's going to stop them?
Oh- but they mean "force other people to do what I want" because reasons. Well.
Bob Boyd's comments wins the thread!
Even a good mask is fourth best option after 1) wash your hands, 2) don’t touch your face, 3) maintain social distancing. And really it’s only applicable for real N95 masks, not the covidtheatre-type mask I and most people wear. [fixed typo]
Thanks Cambridge Massachusetts
I'm not impressed with these numbers considering the infection rate is about 20% to begin with. It is almost like these vaccines have about as much success, maybe less, than your odds of getting the disease and successfully treating it.
Do what I do. To subtly remind folks to maintain social distancing even when out of doors, whenever out in public smoke a cigar.
This rise in the stock market will be remembered by the press as the "Biden Bump." Just watch. Pretty sure I saw new stories last week that tried to give credit to Biden being projected as the winner.
And if you point out it's because of the vaccine news, they'll just say, "well, sure, and the market is showing its confidence in Biden being more capable than Trump of distributing the vaccine."
No matter the political result, the vaccine news would boost stocks in entertainment, energy, air travel, etc., because of hopes of a return to business as usual.
If you care about the stock market, you should be very happy the Democrats did not also win the Senate and expand their majority in the House. Among their other disastrous policy proposals, Democrats have said they wish to raise the capital gains rate so that capital gains are treated the same as ordinary income. That dumb idea would likely lead to a massive sell-off of long-term holdings.
I'm sure it's entirely coincidental that *both* pharma companies released this news after the election.
Coupled with reports that AG John Durham is going to slide away without any action... why, it's so refreshing to see the Swamp regain control!
@Leland
Two words: control group
Night chicken. So good. Got a craving now.
I catch 'em with a flyrod during the season.
Out of season I use a porch light and a tennis racket...which is not strictly legal, but it's hard to prove intent.
And that sell-off would have happened before January 1 as investors lock in their gains and the lower pre-Biden tax rate. Thank God the GOP appears to have kept control of the Senate.
Another thing to be thankful for: Democrats would almost certainly have bailed out the (mostly blue) states that inflicted huge economic harm on themselves through prolonged, too-extreme lockdowns. The cynic in me believes these state governments gambled on a Democratic sweep and hoped that they could get a bailout package from the feds that covered them even for their pre-Covid budgetary failures.
I've been watching Freddy Mercury videos this weekend and started trying to imagine how today's extremely risk averse would handle the uncertainty we all dealt with in the 80s over HIV. We were hysterical then, I cannot imagine a 2020 response.
Here's hoping Pfizer comes up with a COVID-ED magic pill.
Leland, it’s a mystery where your “20% infection rate” comes from but I’ll play along:
No. Apply the roughly 94% effectiveness of Moderna’s vaccine to the all of the 20% vulnerable in your example, so
0.06 * 0.2 = 0.012 and you’ve now protected 98.8% of the potential exposures. Should be even better in the real world.
"This rise in the stock market will be remembered by the press as the "Biden Bump." Just watch. Pretty sure I saw new stories last week that tried to give credit to Biden being projected as the winner."
If I were Biden, and I were taking office, I would prefer a down market.
Kind of like taking over as manger for the '27 Yankees...nowhere to go but down.
Why do you cite CNN for market news. Go to the WSJ or CNBC or something putatively authoritative. Stocks that were in the tank in march are up today. Lockdown stocks are down.
I will begin referring to the vaccines as the "Trump vaccine" just so people don't forget how and why these were developed so quickly.
Also, the market rose not because Biden was elected, but that Republicans held the Senate so the potential damage from the alleged winner of the Presidential election can hopefully be mitigated. Not a "Biden Bump" by any means.
Don't worry Joe---Biden will give you a down market whether you want it or not.
Go to the WSJ or CNBC or something
LOL. I suspect Ann goes where the fuck she wants.
This rise in the stock market will be remembered by the press as the "Biden Bump." Just watch. Pretty sure I saw new stories last week that tried to give credit to Biden being projected as the winner.
WSJ said this very thing election morning- markets are strongly positive BECAUSE markets are expecting a sweep by Democrats and a likelihood of further stimulus. Never mind there were positive phase III results already stirring about...
as I mentioned As always, beware of media outlets ascribing causation to coincident current events
Also- WSJ is still dead! (...to me)
Man, Biden is good. His response to the 'Rona is so much faster and more effective than President Trump.
Hopefully this holds up, I'll be a lot more comfortable retiring sooner with this boost to my retirement fund.
Trump: "If he's elected, the stock market will crash."
https://www.nbcnews.com/video/trump-if-biden-is-elected-the-stock-market-will-crash-94451269581
Promises Made.
Promises Kept.
Trump: "If he's elected, the stock market will crash."
One point of fact: 'he's' not elected yet...
All vaccines carry some risk. So what is the risk of death from this vaccine and how does it compare with the risk of death from Covid?
"LOL. I suspect Ann goes where the fuck she wants."
Unless there are people there without a mask, or some government official says it's unsafe. When was the last time a health official said it was safe to do anything that involves fun, other than maybe Toobin in your closet with a mask on?
The MHRA in the UK is looking for A.I. software to process the EXPECTED high volume of Covid-19 vaccine Adverse Drug Reaction (ADR) cases.
Keep that in mind when someone bigfoots you into getting vaccinated. Recall the idiots want people to carry an electronic "passport" to prove your viral status and vaccination record. Lack of a passport or vaccination could prevent your travel and even result in your termination at work.
Haha. This Dr Anthony is trolling us. This is the virus of all viruses. Get the vaccine but behave like it doesn’t work because maybe it doesn’t. You might have the virus and not know it or have it and feel terrible or you might have it and barely feel it but can give it to others who might die. Or not. And once you have had it you can get it again. And again. Or not.
we need to continue wearing masks even after vaccine “for the good of the country”
They ignore the science and fallback to their intuition. Masks, in the best circumstances, with proper construction and fit, with trained individuals following protocol, have been demonstrated to be either unproductive or counterproductive beyond limited use and no reuse.
Setting aside Planned Parent deaths, we reached peak exponential mortality and hospitalization before restrictive mandates. It is estimated that a large minority and perhaps a majority have preexisting immunity. The recurring spikes follow with restrictive mandates and measures (e.g. masks) that are either unproductive or counterproductive (e.g. viral collectors, bacterial petri dishes).
It is known through global outcomes (i.e. signal diversity) with early treatment (e.g. HCQ cocktail), mortality and hospitalization are reduced by 80 to 90%. The evidence from the ship, in lockdowns, in military centers, from constructions sites, also supports that the primary asymptomatic transmission mode is fecal (or contact). The mortality rate is at most 1 to 2% in older individuals with comorbidities. The result of "flatten the curve" was to prolong exposure of individuals at risk and to delay exposure to a period with elevated viral and bacterial activity, and environmental factors that favor disease progression.
This is a huge breakthrough. I note that it worked with the elderly. I was afraid we were going to get vaccines that only worked with young people or people who are barely at risk from the virus anyway.
But note, there's no reason to think the antibodies that people will get from this will last any longer than what people get from being infected by Covid-19. On the other hand, the T cells generated may last for a lifetime.
Ideally this would mean that after getting this vaccine, you will reduce your odds of getting Covid-19 by 90% for six months and by 99% the odds of getting a severe Covid-19 infection that would put you in the hospital for not just six months, but the rest of your life.
Just wait until it goes in free fall when the O'Bidens take over.
There's one number that's trending, but the other, more serious ones are ... ???
But FREAK OUT! DEATH IS AT YOUR DOOR! SHUTDOWN! LOCKDOWN! PUNISH THE PLEBES!
re: masks
If you believe in the efficacy of masks, then you must also wear goggles to complete the ensemble. Anything less is further evidence (e.g. protests, neighborhood incursions, election celebrations, etc.) of ulterior motives. In addition to open wounds and black holes, the eyes are a window to contagion. Perhaps a full body condom. It would have reduced the excess deaths attributed to the other fecal virus: HIV.
Biden somehow being credited for an impact on the successful delivery of a COVID vaccine before he even left his basement is akin to Obama's being awarded a Nobel Prize before he found out where the White House bathroom was.
How many people wear a mask and never touch it? If you touch your eyes, mouth or nose afterward, do you think that is more risky than not wearing the warm moist virus collection on your face? I'd say it's a toss up or possibly an increased risk. It sure seems that way from the results in the real world. I wear a face shield at work, but I need eye protection anyway. If you pass someone who is infected and they breath into your air stream, you may inhale the virus, but it only gets one disperse shot at you, and then you leave it behind. With a mask you collect it, and save it for hours on your face, touch it, and spread it around multiple times, lay the mask down, and thereby dispense it onto surfaces around you and yours where you hang out.
Trump: "If he's elected, the stock market will crash."
One point of fact: 'he's' not elected yet...
. . .
The markets aren't delusional. They know Biden won.
I can't decide what to do with my portfolio until I hear from Paul Krugman.
The markets aren't delusional. They know Biden won.
After thirty years in financial services I can say 'what markets know' is still a hot topic of debate...
Go back and read how the rise of the stock market under Trump was explained and characterized by the left media. I'm sure they'll make the same arguments now, right?
Trump and his push to get a vaccine fast will get no credit.
Of course not. Why would he? No credit for ending Obama's wars ("social justice adventures") and its associated catastrophic anthropogenic immigration reform (e.g. "refugee crises"). No credit for emigration reform to the mitigate progress of collateral damage from immigration reform at both ends of the bride and throughout. No credit to sentencing and prison reform carried out by ambitious prosecutors (e.g. Harris). No credit for ending funding to the Iranian regime's sponsorship of terrorism in the Middle East. No credit for neutralizing Obamcares for the subsidized few, and addressing progressive prices and availabity for all. No credit for Revitalization, Rehabilitation, Reconciliation in Democrat-controlled urban spaces. No credit for standing against the progress of diversity (e.g. racism, color blocs, affirmative discrimination) and exclusion. No credit for standing up to the Progressive Church and its special and peculiar rites. No credit for standing up for a science-based response to a viral contagion, and normalization of early treatments that would has reduced mortality and hospitalization by 80 to 90% globally (i.e. signal diversity).
Japan did not have a lockdown. It did not force its citizens to follow mandates of dubious value. Tokyo, for one, has a high infection rate (around 50%), and a low death rate (several thousand). I don't recall if they took steps to prevent (i.e. protect their elderly) a Planned Parent selection.
No credit for conserving the American dream: Pro-Life, Liberty, and the pursuit of Happiness.
No thanks to HR trash.
Just the fact that it is so highly effective strongly implies that they have long known that it was effective. Not to mention the fact that they stopped testing testing samples in mid-October when they had previously set a number of positive COVID cases before announcing, an number they reached as soon as they started testing again the day after the election.
"Japan did not have a lockdown.”
Japan “suggested” that certain types of businesses close, and in Japan, that is enough to shut them down. Lockdown is as lockdown does.
Using anonymized data that represented about 2% of the population, we could compute human movement and contact rates at a 100-meter grid-cell scale," study first author Takahiro Yabe says. "We found that 1 week into the state of emergency, human mobility reduced by 50%, which led to a 70% drop in social contacts."
Japan declared its state of emergency on April 7, followed by a gradual series of requests to close businesses and work from home, along with aggressive travel entry restrictions. However, under Japanese law, a mandatory lockdown could not be implemented or enforced.
The data spanned from January to April. A look at the major hub train stations around central Tokyo, including Shinjuku Station, the world's busiest, finds April 14 in Tokyo had 76%-87% fewer visits compared with pre-crisis January.
https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2020-11/iois-tvs110520.php
Lockdown is as lockdown does.
Tokyo has 38K infections TOTALl, for a city with a population of 11 million, not 5.5 million infections. Tokyo is on the scale of New York City with concomitant mass transit requirements, and yet they kept it under control.
In Japan mask compliance is near universal.
I have no idea why a mask phobe like n.n. would bring up Japan, If I were him, I would stop trusting whatever website he got those erroneous facts from.
I am not advocating lockdowns, I think they work if effectively enforced, but I don’t think that they are worth it, because as soon as you lift it, the virus will rage right back. That’s why I have advocated masks as a less intrusive, lower cost alternative to lockdowns. It seems though that there are a lot of people who have serious emotional problems with masks, so I guess every man is an island, separate from the continent, split from the main in this pandemic.
Mask wearing is also far more economically sustainable than lockdowns, but like I said, a lot of people have serious emotional problems with masks, so it’s every man for himself, and the power freaks in the Democrat Party are going to take the opportunity to shut down the economy again, as part of a Cloward Piven style attack on capitalism, is my guess.
A lot of people, and an increasing number, reject the notion that governors and unelected experts possess the power to make them wear masks, stay indoors, quarantine, stay away from family and friends, stop working and earning a living. What will these bureaucrats do in response, arrest people, issue fines? Could get interesting.
Leland, it’s a mystery where your “20% infection rate” comes from but I’ll play along:
Diamond Princess data at the beginning of the outbreak. Initial data from Iceland showed similar studies, but then they are now having a second wave. If you want more information, then here is CNN and RealClearScience. I prefer to look at studies with a high probability that the entire population was exposed. If I only looked at positives to number of tests or uncontained population sizes, then the infection rate looks much less, but that's silly.
vaccine to the all of the 20% vulnerable
So the control group is only vulnerable people? What are those characteristics? Just vitamin D deficiency? Age? I ask, because if you can define a control group to vulnerable people; then why are we having lockdowns of entire populations? Speaking of potential vulnerable people, one more data point.
Don't worry; I know how these games go. Just claim you disagree, provide no evidence, yet claim the information I provided is bogus and meaningless.
Oh: 0.06 * 0.2 = 0.012 and you’ve now protected 98.8% of the potential exposures It doesn't bother you that your answer is right about the rate of survival for exposures without a vaccine? I'm not against vaccination. I just see how much these companies are gaining financially and politically by these well times announcement. Pfizer CEO sold off his stock just after the announcement. Did he know Moderna would one up Pfizer? In the real world before Covid; we analyzed the success of flu seasons (and vaccinations of them), not on the count of infection, but by the number of deaths. Do you think Pfizer and Moderna would look bad if we continued that kind of analysis in the coming years?
Since the markets are all due to Trump greatness, Wall Street must believe that he will prevail in the Courts and give us four more years of Don and Jarvanka.
I don't expect a Biden admin to shut down the economy. It only makes sense when Trump is President. They can't afford to see the economy crash with Biden in there after the great improvements that have been made under Trump. A far more likely scenario if that media will begin telling the truth about the numbers and the real risks of the infection so that Biden can claim success. That's just the second part of the plan. First, make it sound as bad as possible under Trump, because all we have to do is stop that to make it look like a great improvement under our guy. An easy plan if you are the media. It's just words and attention you need to work with. That's their whole world.
tim in vermont said...
Mask wearing is also far more economically sustainable than lockdowns, but like I said, a lot of people have serious emotional problems with masks, so it’s every man for himself, and the power freaks in the Democrat Party are going to take the opportunity to shut down the economy again, as part of a Cloward Piven style attack on capitalism, is my guess.
11/16/20, 1:10 PM
Some people have health reasons to now like wearing masks. I have sinus issues, three surgeries to date, total scrape outs. After 10 minutes in a mask, I can't breath through my nose. I also wear glasses which also fog up so that I can't see much. I am otherwise healthy. I prefer to NOT wear a mask and generally don't unless I have to go into a store that requests it, IF avoiding the store completely is too inconvenient. I do visit mask requiring places less frequently than mask optional places. I do NOT wear one out of doors at all. Also not much good at following lock-downs though I did enjoy working from home for a spell, was one of the luckier ones.
"What will these bureaucrats do in response, arrest people, issue fines?"
They have and they will, but their real power comes from licensing, which is why so many things unnecessarily need a license. As they have already done, they will threaten people's licenses, and thus their livelihood, and the rest of us not wanting innocent people punished will fall in line to protect them from their own government. Remember this the next time you have a chance to vote for more government or less.
Explaining why the Market did what it did today is easy. Post hoc ergo propter hoc. Predicting what it will do tomorrow, less so.
their real power comes from licensing
Indeed. A local bar owner had her liquor license threatened. According to the bureaucrat making the threat, while her bar met every standard required of her original license, and every new standard required by the Covid pandemic; she would lose her license to sell liquor if she didn't buy a new license, despite her old one not being expired. For those that are slow; her facility was deemed as safe as required to operate. She was being threatened not for being an unsafe facility, but simply because the pandemic was being used to force businesses to repurchase the licenses they already had.
Covid was delivered on purpose. From the world order,,, to the world order. a gift.
Fraudci is such a fucking fraud. Will Trump fire his ass already.
A vaccine that's 90+% (two of them even) and we still have to wear masks, you fucking mini hitler.
The MEASLES vaccine is "only" 93% effective. Measles WILL infect 90+% of a group of unvaccinated people. The 'Rona barely gets above 20%.
Why haven't we been wearing masks for MEASLES?
Fucking idiot asshole. Tar and feather that fucking fraud.
Tim:
In Japan mask compliance is near universal.
...
So what.
Japan DOES NOT TEST.
The testing rate in Japan doesn't even register.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104645/covid19-testing-rate-select-countries-worldwide/
Not even above Bangladesh.
do not use japanese statistics about this to show anything.
Leland said...
She was being threatened not for being an unsafe facility, but simply because the pandemic was being used to force businesses to repurchase the licenses they already had.
11/16/20, 2:12 PM
Got to make up those revenue shortfalls somehow...
Behold the power of President Joe Biden! All you had to do was elect the guy and COVID vaccines start falling off of trucks everywhere.
"Got to make up those revenue shortfalls somehow..."
No kidding. If the checks stop going out to those public sector employees "working" from home, there'll be real trouble.
"Japan DOES NOT TEST.”
LOL. Maybe they only test symptomatic people, of which their have been very few. Why should Japan go on a mass testing binge when they have the virus contained to such low levels? The base rate fallacy means that if they tested lots of people, they would almost certainly be over 99% false positives.
I know math is hard for you guys, but come on, at least try.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Base_rate_fallacy
bagoh20
I can't decide what to do with my portfolio until I hear from Paul Krugman.
Krugman opined a few days back that as long as Mitch O'Connell is alive, we are living in a "failed state." So I'd say your options are (a) assassinate Mitch McConnell; or (b) move to a nice un-failed state. I hear there are some openings in Venezuela.
It almost seems like there is some blogger putting info out there on this issue who can’t keep more than one or two facts in his head at the same time while forming a thought. “Japan DOES NOT TEST” is one of those cases of stupidity on parade.
Japan does something called retrospective contact tracing, on the theory that if somebody tests positive, and they do test, that person caught it from somebody who is spreading it, since 80% of Japanese do not seem to spread the disease, it’s more important to find these spreaders by looking backwards. There is no way for the US to implement that, since Japan already had a large force of contact tracers prior to the pandemic based on past pandemics. If you are trying to throw out Japan as an outlier due to your hatred and or fear of masks, this might be a more plausible line of attack.
The 20% number is bullshit. Where left unchecked, it seems to have infected 66% of people before slowing down.
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-09-amazon-city-manaus-herd-immunity.html
Boy, I'm liking the Biden presidency more and more! (I'll like it even more if it winds up not actually happening!)
Suicides and drug overdoses are up significantly.
So people like tim in vermont can feel good about supporting those predicted results.
Which is nice.
Now we are going to see if we can starve a few billion people in the third world.
That will reduce the excess stock (Margaret Sanger) and the number of Winnie Xi Flu cases (tim in vermont) and make everybody happy.
"Community immunity via natural infection is not a strategy, it's a sign that a government failed to control an outbreak and is paying for that in lives lost," tweeted Florian Krammer, professor of microbiology at the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai Hospital in New York.
Count on Tim to panic as usual. Calm down Tim and put your comfort mask on. Manaus has a population of 2.1 million and about 4,500 deaths (source google). The total number of cases is 162,000 or about 8%. You can decide if the fatality rate is 3% based on deaths/total cases or .3% based on deaths/66% of total population. One is bad and the other is about on par with Pfizer. If 66% population has antibodies and that’s not good enough to prevent a second wave, then vaccines are useless because they provide immunity by helping the body develop antibodies. Maybe instead of just believing what the media tells you, try challenging it and see if it makes sense.
BTW, my estimates on the death toll of COVID back in April based on the cruise ship data has been much closer to reality than the UK’s Imperial College numbers that started the panic.
Tim,
Japan has run fewer tests than Iraq, for goodness' sake. 3 million tests in 8 months is fewer tests than the state of Louisiana has run.
Do you really think Japan has had only 3 million people with the symptoms of a cold during the last 8 months? I think it is pretty obvious that they only test people with symptoms severe enough to show up in an ER or a doctor's office plus those people's closest 10 contacts. Now, I am not saying this is a bad use of testing- I think it is the right use of testing, but there is almost no doubt that if they had tested 10 times as much, they would have found ten times the number of positives, and 20 times as much if they had test 20 times as many people.
Yes, there are lots of false positives- probably pretty much half or more of the so-called asymptomatic cases. We are basically testing anyone who wants a test at this point, plus forcing a lot of the young people to take a test just to go to their college classes.
And, of course, this isn't mentioning the wide-spread sero-positive ab tests found in Tokyo. It is quite possible that the Japanese aren't doing anything to stop COVID other than being less prone to die of it. Maybe we need to take The Vapors literally.
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