October 21, 2020
"Two new peer-reviewed studies are showing a sharp drop in mortality among hospitalized COVID-19 patients. The drop is seen in all groups..."
"... including older patients and those with underlying conditions, suggesting that physicians are getting better at helping patients survive their illness.... Patients in the study had a 25.6% chance of dying at the start of the pandemic; they now have a 7.6% chance.... Doctors around the country say that they're doing a lot of things differently in the fight against COVID-19 and that treatment is improving.... Doctors have gotten better at quickly recognizing when COVID-19 patients are at risk of experiencing blood clots or debilitating 'cytokine storms,' where the body's immune system turns on itself...."
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I guess the right question then is, How should this affect our political response? If it is less deadly, that means the economic side of the equation has become more important, and should win more of the arguments.
Ah yes, but we must all stay locked down and masked up for ever!
Good news.
I also wonder how much the virus itself has changed over time. The selective pressure on the virus is most likely towards a more contagious but less lethal variety. It seems to me that in order to maximize transmission hosts have to be more ambulatory. Sicker people are less likely to move around and interact with other people.
The cat is on the roof...
By the end of November our politicians will be saying "Covid? What's that? Oh, you mean that particularly nasty cold that was going around in China? I'm sure glad we didn't get it here. And what's up with that fad for everyone to cover their faces last year? Boy, fashion sure can be weird at times, can't it."
John Henry
tim in vermont and Karen B hardest hit.
This is great news.
This is good news for all of us. it should go along with the best protection yet is to wear a mask. Unfortunately we still don’t know about the long term affects of the virus and why some people more than others suffer from the long haul.
"Two new peer-reviewed studies are showing a sharp drop in mortality among hospitalized COVID-19 patients. The drop is seen in all groups..."
"As is the long-standing custom, and as had been promised by the Commission on Presidential Debates, we had expected that foreign policy would be the central focus of the October 22 debate" ... Trump campaign manager Bill Stepien wrote in his letter dated Monday...
NBC News’ Kristen Welker, who will moderate the next debate, announced on Monday the topics would cover Covid-19, American families, race in America, climate change, national security, and leadership.
So, now I'm guessing maybe not so much Covid-19 (as well as national security and leadership)?
But maintain control the Dictators still demand Shutdowns. Will they be lifted when Biden is declared the winner?
Perhaps the story on masks will become that it was a spontaneous to heightened awareness of the need for social equality. Beautiful people and ugly people look the same with masks. They symbolize the need to fight lookism. I credit BLM for the heightened awareness.
They have already officially destroyed half the myth of masks last week with the CDC statement "We never said masks provide any benefit to the wearer. Wherever did you get that idea? Masks only provide protection to others. Silly citizens."
Which is why now, after 6 months of not saying anything, they are just starting to tell us not to wear masks without valves.
Pretty soon they will start telling us that masks provide no protection to others, either.
Show's over, folks. Kung flu didn't work. Donald Trump is STILL our president and will continue to be so after November.
Of course, masks do provide one important protection to the wearer. They prevent being tracked by cameras. I may continue wearing my mesh balaclava next year just for that reason.
John Henry
This isn't really news to anyone paying attention. While progressives crowed on about Texas and Florida getting what they deserved for [supporting Trump and] opening early; neither state had death tolls that came close to New York or New Jersey. And while Democrats talk about a vaccine and whether they will use it; it is becoming clear that their are treatments that work in reducing the severity of covid-19. Of course, treatments is what Trump has been talking about for months, so they can't be discussed in public without derision.
What has changed that would cause NPR to report what was readily apparent for months?
mortality has dropped among hospitalized patients by 18 percentage points since the pandemic began. Patients in the study had a 25.6% chance of dying at the start of the pandemic; they now have a 7.6% chance.
So...
what? 80% of people with Covid Have NO SYMPTOMS ?
of the 20% of people with Covid, how many get Hospitalized?
of THOSE 7.6% are dying
This disease Just KEEPS getting Worse, and Worse; we MUST suspend ALL civil liberties!
right? i mean, right?
I'm glad to read this. I wonder if anyone important is reading this. I see the Paper here is still in All Alarm Mode.
The Governors of New York and New Jersey killed off the most vulnerable population early, so those now getting infected are the low risk population.
Great! This is what following the science actually means.
I also wonder how much the virus itself has changed over time. The selective pressure on the virus is most likely towards a more contagious but less lethal variety.
The health authorities here in Norway recently said that they have seen some cases with a mutated strain of Covid that is less lethal.
of course, even though (even if) masks don't help (much)
it's Not Too Much to ask All people, to wear them, at ALL times
It's just a matter of politeness (that's WHY it's THE LAW)
Just like we wear pants, when we go shopping; POLITENESS and MANNERS say: Wear a Mask
No one is asking (yet) for more intrusive coverings; so QUIT COMPLAINING!
i have that right? right? i mean, that's the argument; isn't it?
NOW, for fun, let's play: Switch The Words!
of course, even though (even if) hair coverings don't help (much)
it's Not Too Much to ask All women, to wear them, at ALL times
It's just a matter of politeness (that's WHY it's THE LAW)
Just like we wear pants, when we go shopping; POLITENESS and MANNERS say: Cover your Hair!
No one is asking (yet) for more intrusive coverings; so QUIT COMPLAINING!
What Leland said at 9:09AM! Especially his 1st and 2nd and last sentences.
Deaths per 100,000 residents as of 10/16/20:
NJ 182
NY 171
MA 139
Conn 127
RI 108
DC 90
FL 73
Texas 60
USA 66
Sweden 58
"it should go along with the best protection yet is to wear a mask.”
I think hand washing is more important.
" Birkel said...
tim in vermont and Karen B hardest hit”
Be honest Birkel, are you writing these posts from your homeroom in junior high?
Or is everybody against hand washing too?
But seriously this is great news. The data sort of hinted at this, but it’s nice to see it rigorously examined. I think that by Thanksgiving we will have a solid idea of whether we have entered the “now let’s live with it and get back to normal” state.
About that high American death rate: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/does-america-have-covid-problem-or-obesity-problem
I suspect a lot is people seeking treatment earlier.
It’s kind of amazing how cases are climbing steadily in Sweden but deaths remain flat. I hope it keeps up. In a couple of weeks, if deaths don’t start to climb there, they follow cases by about a month, I think maybe some celebrations may be in order.
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa/page/page_0/
What a strange way to end an article.
"I do think this is good news," Horwitz says of her research findings, "but it does not make the coronavirus a benign illness."
Some people play down its severity but I don't remember anyone saying it is a benign illness, not a threat to health or life.
I fully expect that people will stop dying of COVID the minute Biden is elected.
After all, soldiers stopped dying in Iraq after Obama was elected, right?
I suppose it’s possible that Sweden has encouraged the evolution of a less deadly strain. But the virus went wild in Italy too, and cases and deaths are climbing exponentially there again.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/
And if Biden wins instead of it being labeled an 18% drop in the death rate it will be called a 350% improvement in your odds of survival once hospitalized now that Trump is out office.
Look for the CV-19 good news to break after Biden get elected. Suddenly, all those dark clouds will part, and Happy days will be here again. what was terrible under Trump will be great under Biden. I kid you not.
Wearing a mask outside, and most of inside, makes as much sense as wearing a motorcycle helmet inside. (Masking can prevent spread in circumstances of close proximity for prolonged periods of time).
You might fall and hit your head!
Question: if herd immunity does not work, how will a vaccine work?
Deaths per 100,000 in our county little of California 16
Deaths in the immediate 1000 square miles where I live Zero
Yet...we are all being treated the same. As if we live in NYC or LA. No wonder people have Covid Fatigue. No wonder we don't trust anything the government says. It is all BS
Also, Vermont has not reported even one new Covid death in 8-9 weeks which I find unlikely.
This is why flattening the curve was so important. Tim in VT and Kanada Ken B were proven right.
This is great to see in print and said out loud by people in the media and authority, but it is hardly news. Anyone that was paying attention noticed this when the states and media stopped reporting hospitalizations and downplayed deaths in favor of ramping up the panic over increased testing and cases, aka: burying the important statistics and emphasizing the statistics that don't matter.
They report it now, slightly less than two weeks from the election, so that when Joe wins they can justify an end to the economic shutdown and return society to the old normal.
There has certainly been a learning curve- but I have to wonder whether the improvement is really been that steep. More likely is that the disease just took out the most vulnerable in the first wave, and the subsequent waves were sending less vulnerable people to the hospital. In short, the limited hospital space in the Spring was reserved for the most deathly ill with COVID, many of whom then died. By Summer, there were just fewer deathly ill patients, so the hospitals, many of which were still not doing non-elective procedures, just fill up with less deathly ill patients.
NPR is finally waking up too?? The Democrat talking points must not have gone out yet.
They stopped mass-ventilating and over-inflating patients lungs because enough have died to unseat Trump. It’s now close enough to Election Day that the number of new cases, without deaths, is sufficient to elect Harris.
SEE? IT'S GOING TO KILL US ALL!
Narr
Oh. Never mind.
Leland said...
What has changed that would cause NPR to report what was readily apparent for months?
Saw a clip from Sky News Australia last week reporting that the same thing is happening in Europe; surge of infection without a high death toll. NPR broadcasts a lot of BBC news, so perhaps it was becoming nearly impossible to lie about the situation in the US any more.
Wonderful article, thanks so much for blogging it. I've shared to my Facebook because it's hopeful news that all my Lefty friends and acquaintances can't trash, because it's NPR.
Speaking of which, does anyone doubt that any hopeful news about Covid is being squelched, and all negative news and opinions forwarded?
As many doctors have said on MSM and in journals they are learning as they go along how to treat the disease with existent therapies based on empirical evidence and statics. Most of these therapies were not touted by Trump until he was treated by the current science for his Covid infection.
"I suspect a lot is people seeking treatment earlier.”
I am asking, I don’t know, but can your family doctor prescribe zinc and a Z-pac as soon as you know you are sick? Before you go near a hospital?
DBQ: I heard on Varney this morning that Gov. Newsom has forbidden indoor Thanksgiving dinners and even if outside must adhere to severe restrictions. I hope no one--NO ONE--pays any attention to this idiot.
Now back to Schweddy Balls...
This is not news. Real people (me) have been talking about this since at least August. I dont bring it up. But I might start a conversation with " why is it the morning news casts always put up the chart about the entire covid cases and deaths. Mention that now, new cases daily(aside: daily cases is about reporting, not contraction 14day sliding average would be useful, so that's impounded data) but no comparison of deaths.
Much like political polling the media is starting to edge toward truth, so people dont notice they have been setting a narrative(Trump incompetent) instead of WOW deaths are way down, Trumps doing a hell of a job. "almost perfect" according to Dr Birx.
It's actually more than a 70% decrease in the death rate when it falls from 25% to 7.5%.
I am waiting for NPR to discuss the difference between dying OF COVID versus dying WITH COVID.
I suspect we will hear about that after the election.
This is good news for all of us. it should go along with the best protection yet is to wear a mask.
Broad general statements like this are raw stupidity. Meaningless.(unless virtue signalling is meaningful)
The best protection is for those with multiple co-morbidities. Isolate themselves. They are the population that is at risk.
Then:
Never touch your face
Wash/sanitize hands often
Always maintain distance.
Wearing a mask is like farting in public. It's bad form, but not deadly
Birkel is not worth responding to, because he is never honest, but his snark in this case is particularly foolish. The improvements are not the result of magic. They are the result of *time*. Time allowed research and the dissemination of techniques, and the identification of appropriate equipment. That time was bought by flattening the curve.
Birkel will now pivot to another lie or misrepresentation. Because Birkel. But if you get covid now, be thankful you didn’t get it back in May.
Hand washing and Vitamin D.
That is the list of known, effective strategies.
Face masks create trade-offs with other equally bad bacterial infections.
tim in vermont don't do trade-offs.
Tim in Vermont
Remember, Birkel is the guy who went on a tear,shit posting about me for weeks, because I asked him about the Berlin airlift!
Howard supports the two week solution eight months on.
Howard does propaganda for stupid people, by stupid people.
So why aren't physicians being criticized for botching the corona virus response? It's a real question (said no one in the main stream media).
tim in vermont said...
I suppose it’s possible that Sweden has encouraged the evolution of a less deadly strain. But the virus went wild in Italy too, and cases and deaths are climbing exponentially there again.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/
**************
Can you frickin read a graph? Scroll down to the Daily Deaths and you will dee that the death rates during the last few months are much, much LOWER than they were a few months ago, DESPITE a large rise in new cases.
The great majority (i.e. 70 to 80%) of deaths could have been avoided through prevention of Planned Parent, notably in New Jersey and New York; and through ignoring the press, media, and social influencers, mitigating the spread of social contagion, and destigmatizing early treatments.
We reached exponential suppression (i.e. "herd immunity") in most areas several weeks before the mitigation strategies to "flatten the curve" were enforced.
A drop of 18 percentage points - duh. It’s a drop of 70.3 percent from 25.6 to 7.6. The math wizards at National Propaganda Radio certainly are showing their illiteracy - or more probably trying to make it sound less bad.
Same as the CDC saying covid “caused” 299,000 extra deaths this year - but then you read it and it includes those missing medical care as well as suicides. 799 excess deaths a day - out of 8800 normal. And since most of those were on the edge anyway - will we see a DROP in the future when those “excess” don’t show up?
Dying OF covid isn’t dying WITH covid, a subtlety most ignore. And the disaster to kids in schools is a crime no one will pay for.
The silly, ineffective masks will be cast aside on Nov. 3.
This is how it starts.
If masks actually work at protecting you from getting or transmitting the virus, then wearing a mask should protect you from getting the virus, right? Then quit complaining about people who don't wear a mask. They won't infect you if you're wearing your mask and they either infect or be infected by someone else not wearing a mask, or not, and that's their personal choice. And, we're all for a person's right to chose, right?
Scientists Develop New Method To Block Coronavirus Replication
here article
corona virus
NPR is finally waking up too?? The Democrat talking points must not have gone out yet.
One has to lay the groundwork in case Biden is elected to scale back the economy-destroying restrictions.
Birkel: you forgot neti-pot sinus flush with J&J baby shampoo.
"And the disaster to kids in schools is a crime no one will pay for."
Are you kidding? We'll be asked [taxed more] for this for many many years. Hell, I bet they'll come up with some cute little tagline to describe the generation of kids "damaged" by the dumbass lockdowns.
No, Ken B.
You lied about me as you are now.
And I called you a liar because of your lies.
Your goal of killing an economy for no discernible gain was avoided, thank goodness.
Republican governors saw to that.
But you will always have Connecticut, NY, California, and Michigan.
Better luck next time.
In my COVID graphs in the US COVID Data, I added a graph three weeks ago that is a sort of "daily case fatality rate"- it is the graph that is called New Deaths/New Cases, and its 7 Day moving average. The 7 day average has been bound between 0.89% and 2.28% since early July (at 1.22% yesterday). It rises when testing dips down, and falls when testing ticks up, almost in lockstep. It was at a peak back twice in mid April and again in mid May at 7.24%.
Again, as I have pointed out before- you have to account for the increase in testing rates before making broad conclusion about falls in mortality. This applies to Europe as well- they ran far fewer tests in all of the European countries during the Spring and Summer- since then their testing levels are reaching US levels, and correspondingly are reaching US new cases levels. When I have time later today, I will do the same US graph, but using the normalized new cases- it will probably show a flatter curve of daily case fatality bound between 2% and 4%.
This is good news for all of us. it should go along with the best protection yet is to wear a mask.
Nah, the best protection is to put paranoid people in padded rooms for their own safety and the safety of others. Tell me how I'm wrong without mentioning Epstein.
And I was right- the curve using normalized cases is flatter- range was lower on the top and higher at the troughs, just not quite as much as I expected (4.28% to 1.22% after the front end ramp up) and at 2.22% today. I would guess we are better at treating the disease, but that the most vulnerable portion of the population is just quite a bit smaller today.
I have also added a "second derivative" column and graph for new cases for the math nerds in the audience. Will add one for new deaths later tonight.
This is why flattening the curve was so important. Tim in VT and Kanada Ken B were proven right.
We flattened the damn curve in March, dumas. It's now the third week in October and we're still under a mask mandate.
It's bullshit. All of it.
Its been obvious since July that while cases were going up rapidly, hospitalizations and deaths were declining. Yet even now the media breathlessly reports the "new cases" number daily, the implicit assumption being that increased deaths would soon follow. By August it should have obvious that this was not going to happen.
No, we are not all going to die. Big government liberals hardest hit.
We are no where close to achieving herd immunity, thanks to the idiotic lockdowns.
But seriously this is great news. The data sort of hinted at this, but it’s nice to see it rigorously examined. I think that by Thanksgiving we will have a solid idea of whether we have entered the “now let’s live with it and get back to normal” state.
@tim in vermont, I had been trying to tell you (and Ken B.) the same thing for weeks now. Glad it’s finally penetrated. But, no, we aren’t waiting another six weeks or so until Thanksgiving. We’ve lost too many small businesses and too many jobs already. Time to turn the economy back over to Trump.
Most of these therapies were not touted by Trump until he was treated by the current science for his Covid infection.
Lying again. What do you know about what was "touted" in the commission considering treatment. I mentioned remdesivir here last spring. Immune serum has been discussed for months.
"Can you frickin read a graph?”
Yeah, death rates are falling slowly and deaths are climbing exponentially. I don’t give a lot of credence to the beginning part of the graph when there were so many undetected cases that the death rate was through the roof. Once it settled down it started falling slowly.
You guys hate having facts pointed out to you that go against your pet theories. For instance the fact that it is more contagious than the flu means that if the death rate were identical, it would still kill some multiple more people, not the same number. I know math is hard. On the flip side, SARS was far more deadly than the flu, but because it was only contagious after people became so symptomatic they were hospitalized, it killed many fewer people, it couldn’t spread. You guys keep focusing on one number. This is why I sometimes express lack of respect for the reasoning skills of some of you.
Yep a drop in Covit numbers? Or is it a drop in categorizing deaths as Covit? Don't forget the higher funding available for Covit reported deaths. Of course people of good principle don't ever make such decisions. Sure believe that and I'll sell you a bridge in Brooklyn real cheap!
tim in vermont said...
"I suspect a lot is people seeking treatment earlier.”
I am asking, I don’t know, but can your family doctor prescribe zinc and a Z-pac as soon as you know you are sick? Before you go near a hospital?
Certainly. But heaven forbid, no HCQ. You should already be taking a multi with an MDR of zinc, extra Vitamin D, and quercetin. And- walk into a lab and pay to have your Vitamin D blood level checked. Unless you live in a nanny state like NY where the government has decided us peasants are too stupid to monitor our own health and you have to insist to your doctor or other health professional they order a test, then make another appointment so they can tell you what it was.
Wisconsin's death rate is less than 1%, even with the surge. It's too bad that bad beginning in New York set the policy for the country on this.
Wisconsin's death rate is less than 1%, even with the surge. It's too bad that bad beginning in New York set the policy for the country on this.
There is a lot emphasis being put on "cases". Just what is a "case". If one doesn't have symptoms yet tests positive with a highly fallible "test", how is that a catastrophe? Hospitalizations are down, deaths are down, but cases are "exploding". We're all gonna get it, it has to happen, that is what happens with virus in a population. And as Yancey points out, the herd is most likely culled. That is also what viruses do. War of the worlds effect. Let the young live their lives, quarantine the vulnerable. The lockdown has the effect of "teeth are ok, gums gotta go". A poor choice that has "experts" scrambling to cover their asses.
Yancy, can you track the Influenza data. I'll wager Covid "pulled ahead" a lot of the vulnerable.
madAsHell said...
The silly, ineffective masks will be cast aside on Nov. 3.
------------================
is it possible to put your masks in ballot boxes (= support Trump) instead of marked ballot?
>>>>>>>>>> fewer masks on the street after.
An estimate of 7500 dead counts as right? Welcome to Woke math, from an unexpected source.
“ This is why flattening the curve was so important. Tim in VT and Kanada Ken B were proven right.”
Snow brings wisdom.
There's another experiment going on right now in San Francisco, and other cities I probably don't know about.
Private schools are open for in-person schooling. Public schools are closed.
Where's the outbreak? Where are all the teachers dropping dead?
This is 100% bullshit.
100%.
Open schools. Open the economy and give the fuck up on the flumonia. (contagious like the flu, only kills old people like pneumonia).
"Yancy, can you track the Influenza data. I'll wager Covid "pulled ahead" a lot of the vulnerable."
You will see the effect going forward- people who died this Spring and Summer can't die next Summer and Winter.
I will point out something else- we are starting to see significant extra all causes deaths non-COVID-related. Up to 100K already, just 7 months into lockdowns in the US. This number will grow and will certainly be larger than COVID related deaths by this coming Spring if we don't relent on the remaining lockdown measures.
Yes, KarenB, that was a bad prediction, but at least my suggested policies haven't killed 100,000 people like yours did. Your positions really did kill some grandmas, and not with COVID.
"Certainly. But heaven forbid, no HCQ.”
I got nothing against HCQ, I am pretty sure that it reduces deaths. I saw a graph were there was an immediate drop in the death rate for hospitalized patiens that could be matched with the day they started using HCQ in some contry. I know that in Michigan you could see. the death rate rise on Cruella’s order to ban it, and fall again when she rescinded it. I just don’t know if that is something you can give people outside of a hospital setting. If you can, that’s great.
Where's the outbreak? Where are all the teachers dropping dead?
Based on the evidence (e.g. spread in warm, humid climates; closed, isolated structures; outhouses), it is likely that they mischaracterized transmission modes. For example, the masks are viral and bacterial collectors, concentrators. The former, if the submicron pathogen did not pass through the porous mesh on contact, were ingested once a droplet evaporated. The case numbers track past, probable, possible, confirmed, and false identification. The deaths are counted with a conflation of causes. One thing we do know, is that a large number could have been prevented through policies avoiding planned parent, containing the social contagion spread that drove people to medical centers, and ignoring the ostensibly "peer reviewed" reports that supported denying and stigmatizing early treatments that have reduced deaths from Covid-19 by 80 to 90% around the world, and reduced the medical load with a great majority of people being treated on an out-patient basis (further reducing the risk of cross-contamination).
"And as Yancey points out, the herd is most likely culled.”
That’s certainly a possible take. Just remember that this is a democracy and the “dry tinder” can vote. Another possibility is that the vulnerable, like myself, are simply self isolating and being extremely careful when we do go out, and that the less vulnerable are taking more risks, which is right, I suppose, but I don’t like them deliberately putting the risk on the people who have to work in supermarket checkout lines for example, exposed to dozens to hundreds of people every day, just because those self appointed epidemiologists have decided that the experts are wrong feel safe themselves. “Herd immunity” is never going to be a real thing short of an effective vaccine, because people can catch it over and over and it is so contagious that it only needs a small crack in “herd immunity” to seek out vulnerable people again. If nothing changes, hypothetically, a young fit man today is going to work his whole life to retire, maybe have two or three cases of the Wuhan Flu or five or six, during his working life, then catch a case of COVID at a local restaurant when he’s 65 and die early. It’s diabolical.
You guys like reading military history a lot of you. I like reading the history of civilization, and pandemics are as consequential as asteroid strikes or mega volcanos as far as changing the course of history. In the next town from mine is an archeological site that had been occupied for thousands of years until 400 years ago, Cartier sailed a ship up the St Lawrence River and somehow let some germs get into the native population with a few interactions 100 miles away, population wiped out. It isn’t written in any book that a pandemic has to be well behaved and like other pandemics. I am not saying this one is that bad, just that you have to take every pandemic on it’s own, not compare it to others, like a flu epidemic where it’s one and done and herd immunity eventually kills it off.
So NPR actually broadcasts something with a lick of truth in it. I have a teacher friend and a teacher sister who are crazy with the fear they are going to die here in FL due to schools being open. I ignore both of them.
THEOLDMAN
"This is good news for all of us. it should go along with the best protection yet is to wear a mask."
No. A mask is very poor protection, since million of infections happen to people who do wear them. The best protection is the same now as before, and the same as it will be in the future. Exposure is the best protection. Now via natural means as millions have done, and hopefully in the future via vaccination. Both methods are effective, although the vaccine may provide a lower risk and less effectiveness. Natural exposure is near 100% effective and the risk is extremely low for healthy people, and if you are not healthy, depending on a mask is kinda crazy. Personally I would prefer to get the virus and get the higher effectiveness for the risk, just like 99.9+% of those exposed do. I wonder what the risk is of death from the vaccine due to complications?
Big Mike, I have been supporting lifting the lockdowns here since April. It’s sad that you can’t distinguish support for mask wearing for example to protect the supermarket cashier who is exposed to many dozens of people face to face every day just to do her job when she has very few options, from support for lockdowns. It suggests that you are reasoning emotionally.
Even if CFR is improving, people are still dying in significant numbers. The cold weather, with it’s runny noses and sneezing and coughing just from cold air is going to be the real test. People wiping their sniffles with their hand and touching surfaces, for example. We haven’t really had much cold weather in any major cities. If cases don’t skyrocket then, and deaths don’t climb significantly, we will have turned a corner. That’s impossible to know now. But yeah, businesses should be open. I don’t know about sporting events or concerts. The Czech Republic allowed hockey games and concerts and now they are dealing with serious issues.
You guys remind me of Pickett’s Charge. "Keep sending men, the Yankees can’t have that much ammunition!"
When did we flatten the curve? I prefer Sweden's curve. At the peak in the spring they were 7th in deaths per million, but have steady moved down the list to 16th as others including the US have risen. Sweden didn't treat their citizens like children, kept most things open, and weren't arresting and fining citizens for making their own choices. They now have almost no deaths happening. It's been over for months there, and the economic and human cost was minimized with intelligence and science over politics and fear mongering.
Because of the effect of increased testing on cases, deaths is the only number that can be useful compared over time. If there even was a flattening, our deaths curve didn't start it until May when we started opening back up. Go look at the daily deaths graph and see.
The purpose of the lock down was to keep hospital loads manageable and that happened pretty early. The rest after that was a huge mistake that will cost more lives that the virus, which directly has killed less than 20,000.
tim in vermont said...
"And as Yancey points out, the herd is most likely culled.”
That’s certainly a possible take. Just remember that this is a democracy and the “dry tinder” can vote. Another possibility is that the vulnerable, like myself, are simply self isolating and being extremely careful when we do go out, and that the less vulnerable are taking more risks, which is right, I suppose, but I don’t like them deliberately putting the risk on the people who have to work in supermarket checkout lines for example, exposed to dozens to hundreds of people every day, just because those self appointed epidemiologists have decided that the experts are wrong feel safe themselves. “Herd immunity” is never going to be a real thing short of an effective vaccine, because people can catch it over and over and it is so contagious that it only needs a small crack in “herd immunity” to seek out vulnerable people again
Wrong on many points. Let's start with- it's superduper incredibly contagious. If so- explain why <20% of those onboard the Diamond Princess got it. I've been shipboard- many many times. And the start of every 72 day SSBN deterrent patrol or SSN specop was the same. The first two weeks everyone got what everyone else had. Then the rest of the run- nothing. And the first two weeks back ashore- we all got whatever was going around that we hadn't been exposed to. And personal anecdote- which isn't data- 2 of my sons have been diagnosed with it. One got it at college apparently, and the other maybe at work, maybe in his hotel or at a restaurant, no way to tell. And they were here at home with 65 year old me and my two year younger wife. And they didn't wear masks. And we didn't wear masks. We took no special precautions. And didn't get it. Remarkable, isn't it?
Getting it multiple times? There's a few, as in handful, reported cases- and medical authorities aren't even sure about them. But then the question arises- did they get the SAME covid strain- or a subtle mutation that made it different enough to fool the bodies defense mechanisms? Last I read the powers that be were aware of 7 different strains- and I know it's gone up by now. So- if you get strain 1- are you immune to 2-7? Or only 1? Or maybe 1,4 and 5 but not 2,3,6 and 7? Which is why the idea that a vaccine will save is incredibly naïve. It's a virus, it mutates. That's why we have a different flu vaccine every year. Just had my flu shot the other day. Corona type viruses aren't all that uncommon. In fact, from my goto website webmd.com on the common cold:
"You know the drill. Your throat feels scratchy, you start sneezing and coughing, and pretty soon you're in the grip of a nasty cold. To add insult to injury, all that big-time misery is from a tiny invader -- a living thing called a virus.
And it's not just one you need to dodge. There are more than 200 that can lay you low.
It's likely that someday you'll have a close encounter with one of these types:
Rhinovirus
Coronavirus
RSV and parainfluenza
There are also a lot of viruses that doctors haven't identified. About 20%-30% of colds in adults are caused by these "unknown" bugs.
How and When They Strike
Cold viruses have a lot in common, but each type has its own style, too.
Rhinovirus. This bunch is most active in early fall, spring, and summer. They cause 10%-40% of colds. You'll feel plenty miserable when you catch one, but the good news is they rarely make you seriously sick.
Coronavirus. These tend to do their dirty work in the winter and early spring. The coronavirus is the cause of about 20% of colds. There are more than 30 kinds, but only three or four affect people.
RSV and parainfluenza. These viruses cause 20% of colds. They sometimes lead to severe infections, like pneumonia, in young children.
Right now there's research going on about a few things that might be magic bullets. I'm not holding my breath.
Oh, NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!! It's NOT the killer we were promised?
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