October 27, 2020

"Polls show Mr. Biden leading by five to 13 points, but I grew up around here and am dubious. This place — the land of hoagies and Bradley Cooper and Rocky Balboa worship..."

"... and Tina Fey’s 'Cousin Karen' accent — has transmogrified into Trumplandia. 'He has so much more support than in 2016, because it’s been four years of accomplishments,' said Darinna Thompson, 49, a homemaker who was talking with a group of women outside the Trump Store. They were part of a caravan that had just encircled the Democrats’ rally 'to say bye-bye to Biden' and let his supporters know they were outnumbered.... Pollsters say that suburban women are President Trump’s kryptonite, that they’ve turned on him.... 'I feel like that’s wrong — we’re the majority,' said Jennifer Girard, 41, a single mother working in consumer goods.... My mom says many of her girlfriends will go for Mr. Trump, and she hasn’t been able to match with any man on Bumble who isn’t a Trump voter.... The front yards of the houses flanking my mom’s, the one across the street and three more on the block feature Trump signs. There is one Biden sign on the street. One of my mom’s acquaintances recently held a Trump-themed birthday party for her child. Icing on each cookie read, 'Make ninth birthdays great again.'... Lochel’s bakery in Hatboro has become an overnight Oracle of (Phila) Delphi, selling red 'Trump 2020” and blue 'Biden 2020' sugar cookies. Whichever cookie sells the most will predict how this area, and thus the state, and therefore the election, will turn. Supposedly.... So far, the count stands at 3,367 blue cookies, 18,241 red. 'I do think that Trump supporters are more competitive,' said Dan Rutledge, standing in line outside of the bakery in the spitting rain on Sunday."


ADDED: At FiveThirtyEight: "Is Joe Biden Toast If He Loses Pennsylvania?" Answer to the question: "No, not quite. It is close to being a must-win for Trump, who has only a 2 percent chance of winning the Electoral College if he loses Pennsylvania. Biden, however, has a bit more margin for error. He’d have a 30 percent chance if he lost Pennsylvania.... The reason losing Pennsylvania wouldn’t necessarily doom Biden is because he could still hold those other Midwestern/Rust Belt states. Pennsylvania is fairly similar to Michigan and Wisconsin, but not that similar."

104 comments:

TRISTRAM said...

Philly burb dweller. I don’t tell no one nothing about voting. Have a “Hail Megatron” campaign sign in the yard. Wife is looking for a Cobra Commander sign.

Gov wolf has and his angel of death health director have given Trump PA on a sliver platter. Biden’s fracking / petroleum jihad is simply gilding the lily.

tim in vermont said...

The thing that I saw driving through PA was that businesses were quite happy to have large Trump signs displayed, which tells me that they know their customers are alright with it. I also noticed that in 2016. It’s pretty ballsy move if Trump is so unpopular.

It does seem like the media, including disgusting secret Biden operators like Frank Luntz which we know from Hunter’s laptop, are trying to suppress Trump’s turnout by declaring the race over due to Trump’s epic stupidity in assigning any importance to the laptop, which just happened to have emails from Frank Luntz on it.

It probably is over, we just don’t know how it’s going to turn out.

Mike of Snoqualmie said...

No, we cannot trust the polls. The pollsters are just guessing what the likely voter distribution is going to be. Also, many people do not trust the pollsters to keep their responses confidential. I don't.

tim in vermont said...

Trump suporters are a-prancing and a-dancing to the polls, Biden voters are trudging. Be interesting if the weather gets bad, and you know, Biden’s up by 13 points and all. What’s the point in voting? He’s got it covered.

tim maguire said...

Make ninth birthdays great again. I love that sort of thing and it pleases me to imagine that most Biden voters would find it charming as well. Also love the cookie competition, but that guy is right--Trump voters are more likely to buy cookies to show their support. Still, 18-3, that's quite a margin.

MikeR said...

I know polls work, but I've never known why. Who talks to pollsters? I never would. Maybe this'll be the time when a critical mass of Americans decided they don't feel like cooperating.
Or maybe the polls will turn out to work as they have in the past.

BidenFamilyTaxPayerFundedCrackPipe said...

Penn is the cheat to win state for the D's.

3 extra days of counting!

The Cracker Emcee Refulgent said...

Win or lose, Trump has poisoned the ground for Biden. Remember all those hardcore Bob Dole partisans? Those never-say-die Romneyites? Me neither...

Assistant Village Idiot said...

Because the voting in Philadelphia has been crooked for years and will be again this time.

dhagood said...

i can't speak to pennsylvania at all, but i recently took a road trip from eastern colorado through utah and nevada and into california via almost exclusively rural areas. i saw exactly 6 biden signs and an uncountably large number of trump signs.

i am making no predictions but i thought my experience interesting enough to share.

Tom said...

Can 538 be wrong two presidential elections in a row and claim any level of public confidence?

Michael K said...

Keeping hope alive. Just like 2016.

tim maguire said...

It's certainly looking like Biden will take Wisconsin. Michigan is more of a crap shoot, though. I'd like to see James win in Michigan, but that seems unlikely if Trump loses.

Qwinn said...

This was the first time in decades that I found anything in the NYT a fun read, but only because I just bought a house less than 10 minutes from the Trump Store mentioned in this article (and yes, I bought stuff tbere). And it is absolutely true, this is Trump country. Trump signs outnunber Biden signs around here at least 10-1.

Somebody did steal my Trump sign 2 days ago (it was up about 2 weeks). So my wife ran out almost immediately to the Trump Store and ran our new Trump 2020 flag (far bigger than the stolen sign) up our flagpole.

The bias in that article is so repulsive. Still pushing the Charlottesville hoax. Still calling opposition to riots racist. I pray these people get everything they deserve, and I'm agnostic.

tim maguire said...

Blogger BleachBit-and-Hammers said...
Penn is the cheat to win state for the D's.

3 extra days of counting!


It sounds worse then it is. The extra days are only for letters with no post mark. That's not a common occurrence and people will notice if Trump wins by 240,000 and suddenly there are 500,000 of them and it just happens that 75% are for Biden

Bill Peschel said...

Today we had a Trump supporter going door to door in Hershey. First one I've seen from a national campaign in a long time.

Driving around PA, we have seen tons of Trump signs. The few Bidens signs are all the basic mass-produced standard models.

traditionalguy said...

Actor Bradley Cooper was the perfect Scots Irish warrior in American Sniper. Deplorables still tear up over that movie.

stevew said...

For anyone that wants to influence the election in Biden's direction they would downplay any lead he is reported to have. If you want to influence in Trump's direction you would play the underdog and amp up Biden's lead.

Here's what I know for sure: no one knows what next Tuesday will bring.

Kate said...

Gawd, Trump must really be leading if the NYT has to start to soften the blow to their readers.

gilbar said...

sure, President Trump is ahead with LIVING VOTERS; but how is he doing with Dead Voters?
Since the courts have ruled that:
a) a ballot can come in up to 13 weeks after election day
b) a ballot does NOT need a post mark
c) a vote doesn't need to be on a ballot; can be a piece of paper with Biden written on it
d) a ballot does not need to be signed, or even have a person's name with it

it seems like President Trump will have a tough row to hoe

doctrev said...

That's a lot of doubt for a state which Joe Biden considers "hometown." Uh, Joe- they know when you're patronizing them for votes. You famously live in Wilmington, Delaware, until it's time for a national election.

Pennsylvania is probably going to be what pushes Trump over the top, especially if ACB and the Supreme Court strike down the recount (an injunction was denied, but an expedited ruling is not out of the question). That's the end of the election, and probably of the Democrats entirely.

Achilles said...

It is embarrassing to vote for Biden.

There just aren't any people that want to be associated with an obviously corrupt pedophile who also happens to be a traitor.

Achilles said...

Biden being a rapist does not inspire anyone but people like Readering.

And there just aren't that many stupid women around.

wildswan said...

If Biden wins those on the right will be Nazis and those on the left will get to choose whether to be a Stasi or a Nazi. If Trump wins both the right and the left can be conservative, liberal, green, red, pink, blue, Black Lives Matter, Monty Python's Flying Circus or indifferent to politicians.

Lord Clanfiddle said...

Surely the combination of promising the destruction of the oil & gas industry and riots in Philly makes a difference for Biden's chances?


Drago said...

Mike of Snoqualmie: "No, we cannot trust the polls. The pollsters are just guessing what the likely voter distribution is going to be."

False.

Nate Silver is leading the charge of the fraudulent "pollsters" who are simply driving a policy of deception in order to create a post-election narrative that Trump only won due to cheating/russians/whatever and is therefore illegitimate.

Just 2 days ago Silver, who was a complete failure as a sports stats-based prognosticator (ask any Vegas better about Silver, they all know Silver is a joke), moved over to politics and piggy-backed onto obama's 2008 win (gee, that one was really hard, wasn't it), starting smearing pollsters who are outliers from the lying pollsters.

Silver has spent the last week smearing those pollsters who are showing Trump's real poll numbers and literally threatening them to "herd" their numbers to the bulls*** narrative numbers which are designed to buck up the democratical/LLR-lefty post-election talking points.

Silver is sliming Trafalgar, Susquehanna, etc.

And that's for a reason.

The message is clear: any pollster who deviates from the party line will be an outcast from here on out.

Remember, Silver is the fake statistician who has long advocated for and has bragged about how he NEVER looks at the crosstabs!

LOL

What a fraud.

Back to Althouse's post, Trump did fairly well with the Italian neighborhood areas of Philadelphia (real white working class voters, not the fake democrat idea of "white working class" voter who is really an antifa-supporting community college starbucks barista!) in 2016 and is really crushing it now with the real/actual white working class who are traditionally completely missed by the idiot legacy/mainstream media "pollsters". There are entire swaths of Pennsylvania's "T" and Wisconsin/Minnesota/Pennsylvania Dutch/Norwegians etc who are really drawn to Trump for his anti-war positions.

All of that is why Trump will expand greatly his % of the ex-urban/far-suburban/rural white working class vote.

BTW, it appears that just about the entire gain Trump is making with black voters is amongst the millenial black working class, 18-29. Which makes alot of sense since older black voters are locked into the democraticals and black women are as well.

BTW, I'm including the hack Chris Stirewalt of Fox News in that crew of herd-mentality gutless pollsters as well.

rcocean said...

Silver is so full of crap. Hillary got 232 EV. If Biden gets everything Hillary did AND Pennsylvania he's have 252. If Biden loses Michigan and wins Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, he'll have only have 262. That's 8 short.

Or put another way. Trump got 306 EV in 2016. He only has to win what he did in 2016, and one of three states: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin or Michigan.

So, its Biden who's behind the 8 ball. Not Trump.

Drago said...

BTW, Nate Silver has been hilariously wrong and way off Florida predictions for the last 3 election cycles.

That idiot had Gillum and Nelson up by 6!! And that's not even the worst of his moronic electoral predictions over the last 6 years.

LOL

Kate Coe said...

Why does the NYT have an assn’t writing anything?

Doug said...

Figures lie, and liars figure.

Bill, Republic of Texas said...

I don't do the poll guessing game. In 2012, many times Republicans spent hours obsessing over the "tabs" to prove the polls are wrong. Obama won anyway.

In 2016, the polls were off in the swing states and Trump won.

2018 the polls were right about the House but wrong about the Senate.

We'll see next week.

Bill, Republic of Texas said...

I will predict turnout is going to be huge.

I live in a red area in a blue county. Early voting has been huge. Our local early voting place has had 3-5 hour waits all day everyday. When I drive by places in the blue area they have huge lines too. I wonder who will be left to vote on election day.

Achilles said...

Philadelphia is on fire. There are riots there after a knife wielding democrat charge police officers and was promptly shot.

Democrats ran over a cop and have injured dozens more.

Of course this is only a local story. The media is strangely incurious about democrats burning down another city in a violent tantrum.

I am sure that this is helping to get out the vote.

Big Mike said...

Democrats have spent 8+ years throwing working people out of their coalition and Silver thinks Biden can win any of the Rust Belt states. The fact that Democrats call them the “Rust Belt” is why they’ll lose them.

Sally327 said...

I'm reminded of William Goldman's comment, which was about the film business but seems applicable here, "Nobody knows anything".

In 2004, I read about the polls and listened to the reporting and figured John Kerry was going to win. I remember watching Fox News back then and how it delayed making certain calls on election night, like Georgia I think it was or maybe Alabama, because supposedly the exit polls showed it was in play for Kerry. This turned out to be inaccurate. But I remember thinking, geesh if John Kerry wins THAT state this is going to be a 1984-like rout.

Well, Donald Trump is no George W. Bush (sorry, Joe) and Joe Biden is easier to tolerate than John Kerry, probably, yes? But as I said, nobody knows anything.

D. said...

let the preference cascade begin.

tcrosse said...

What does Biden win if he “wins”?

Yancey Ward said...

Frank Luntz did write something smart the other day- he wrote that if Trump wins again, the lefty political polling industry is toast- no one will pay attention to them ever again (and I don't think they pay much attention now). Two missed presidential elections in a row is basically lights out for most of the industry. Even worse is that they also botched most of the Senate races in 2018.

Are the polls wrong? I hope so. I am dead certain Biden won't win by more than 5% nationally if he does win, and he will likely win by the method I thought Clinton was going to win by- by winning WI, PA, and MI. I think Silver is wrong about one thing- if Biden loses PA, he loses the election almost 100% certain. It is Trump that has a higher chance of winning if he loses PA by a percent or two.

The thing to look for over the next 5 days is if the national polls start to pullin the margins. For the longest time Biden was predicted to win by a landslide- if his margin is down to 4%, then this looks a lot like 2016 to me.

John Lynch said...

PA is close. Final RCP average last time was Clinton +3.4%. Right now, it's Biden +3.8% with the two latest polls being a time and Trump winning.

I got skeptical about the polls this time around when NBC decided TX is a "tossup."

We'll see.

TRISTRAM said...

It sounds worse then it is. The extra days are only for letters with no post mark. That's not a common occurrence and people will notice if Trump wins by 240,000 and suddenly there are 500,000 of them and it just happens that 75% are for Biden
Point of order, a lot of the ballots are postage paid. I don’t think they ever have post marks.

Bay Area Guy said...

NYT late to the party again. May our enemies stay
confused.

mikee said...

Trump wins at least 300 electoral votes. He might take everywhere except Illinois, California and New York. And had he campaigned in New York, I think he would have had a chance there.

Achilles said...

At this point in 2016 Wapo had the race at 50-38 for Hillary.

Trump's personal approval rating is 7 points higher in 2020 than in 2016.

It is a safe bet that Trump gets far more votes in 2020 than he did in 2016.

The only question is how many mail in ballots democrats can forge.

I'm Full of Soup said...

I live in the Philly burb of Lower Merion and nothing but Biden signs around me. I put out 3 Trump signs so far and not a one has lasted 36 hours before someone took it down. I do hope this story is accurate. I hated Biden even way back when I was a Democrat.

tim in vermont said...

" think Silver is wrong about one thing- if Biden loses PA, he loses the election almost 100% certain.”

Right, because the demographic that would lead Trump to win PA is not strictly confined by state borders. It’s the exact same mistake they made last time thinking that the states were like independent coin tosses. If Trump wins in PA because of that demographic, you can bet that his vote will be stronger in Upstate New York, but still overwhelmed by NYC, but also in Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, even Rural Minnesota. By the same token, if that demographic turns out big in PA, but the Democrats steal the state by cheating out of Philadelphia, it will also be turning out big in other states, so stealing PA isn’t necessarily going to seal the deal the way Silver seems to think. There are not just “national winds” in elections, but regional winds too.

I made almost this same comment before 2016, but I still went to bed thinking that Hillary was going to win because I believed that they knew what they were talking about, even though I could see with my own lying eyes that they didn't.

Clark said...

I attended his rally in Blair County, PA. Very enthusiastic crowd in what is a Republican stronghold. I think he’s got the blue collar vote and our major cities have more blue collar people than most other large cities. That could be what clinches it. Wolf really screwed up with his shutdowns.

Birkel said...

Biden is currently losing in all three states and Republicans will dominate Election Day.
Trump adds states and all the gaslighting in the world won't change that truth.

I'm Full of Soup said...

I predict chaos counting votes in a few states. I doubt our elected Govt asswipes have thought out and prepared for all contingencies.

Michael K said...

Somebody did steal my Trump sign 2 days ago (it was up about 2 weeks). So my wife ran out almost immediately to the Trump Store and ran our new Trump 2020 flag (far bigger than the stolen sign) up our flagpole.

I saw a Trump sign in Tucson today that underneath had a smaller yellow sign n that said "Smile. You're on camera."

I have no idea if there was a camera but I laughed.

DavidUW said...

Uh Joe IS toast if he loses PA. Another way to look at is, all Trump has to do is keep 1 of the 3 states, WI/MI/PA that he flipped in 2016.
Joe has to win all 3.

daskol said...

The problem with predicting this election is it’s hard enough to reliably project the electorate. The other forces at work are entirely unpredictable. Nate Silver has some creative ideas about measuring baseball and even political polling, but he’s better at buttering up industry people than predictions, and that’s becoming harder to ignore. He’s all in like the rest of them, so he’s at least got skin in the game this time: it would be to his credit to admit it, but he can’t.

Dragon’s analysis/opinion looks right on. We could all be wrong, but how the fuck could he have won in 2016 then lose now? Besides fraud/coup stuff, I mean.

Kai Akker said...

The political drift over the past four years has been towards Trump, 90% of it. His rallies draw amazing crowds. No one goes to Joe and Kamala rallies. How much more do you have to see? Now the unique, independently organized auto parades. Only cheating will keep Trump from a 60% type of voting margin in a big reelection win. He wins Pennsylvania more easily this time than last. And

55 - 43 - 2

Nationwide.

Wince said...

Hopefully voters know they’ll be voting for a Harris presidency.

Biden in his mental state can’t withstand the revelations now unfurling on Tucker Carlson.

Birkel said...

The polling firms do not care if they fail.
Democraticals have thrown everything into this election push for presidential hopeful Harris.

They MUST throw caution to the wind.

Trump wins more total votes in the completely meaningless "popular vote" that Democraticals invented so they could throw a tantrum.

Trump expands his electoral college vote total.

Birkel said...

https://mobile.twitter.com/Barnes_Law/status/1321200930121871360

Apparently Biden has fallen behind in early voting.
In Michigan.
In Wisconsin.
In Pennsylvania.

And behind Hillary's pace in AZ, Florida, NC...
While Trump is ahead of his 2016 pace.

Epic.

New Mexico, Nevada, New Hampshire, Maine and Minnesota are in play.
Virginia appears within reach.
Oregon?

Leftist tears are sweet.

Ingachuck'stoothlessARM said...

why do you think they call him "Nate ̶S̶i̶l̶v̶e̶r̶ Bronze"

tim in vermont said...

It will be something if Joe Biden’s “Ask me no questions and I will tell no lies” campaign works. He only allows donors at his rallies, voters don’t deserve to attend, I guess.

tim in vermont said...

"nothing but Biden signs around me. I put out 3 Trump signs so far and not a one has lasted 36 hours before someone took it down.“

Do you suppose there is a correlation between these two observations?

tim in vermont said...

"Biden in his mental state can’t withstand the revelations now unfurling on Tucker Carlson.”

Biden has to deal with the fact that there is an internet video of his son sexually abusing a 14 year old girl known to Joe. Of course he seems like a sociopath to me, so maybe that doesn’t bother him.

tim in vermont said...

The Dems brought the brass knuckles to this fight with the bullshit impeachment as a coverup of Biden’s corruption. They have nothing to complain about.

BUMBLE BEE said...

Check out that line!
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/10/27/watch-party-atmosphere-dominates-massive-trump-rally-line-lansing-michigan/

Kevin said...

Shorter NYT: The cat’s on the roof.

Bill Peschel said...

Good to those that those police officers were injured and run over in "peaceful protests," according to our idiot governor:

""Well first of all I'm, I mean I'm, as everyone is really sad by the, the death of the victim. And and I think I share in mourning with the family. Anytime that happens is a tragedy, for whatever reason, and I think we need to make sure that that we follow up, find out what happened I'm, and my staff have been in constant communication since last night with the folks in Philadelphia. And the hope is that that doesn't escalate into anything more than, than the peaceful protests that I think this kind of situation brings out.""

Night said...

By 2024 there will be a Stanford fueled AI polling service in place that outperforms Nate.

Nanobot flies will be released to eavesdrop to make sure you tell the correct truth to the pollster or else.

DavidUW said...

Lower Merion vote for Clinton: 26,984 to Trump's 7,715.

I mean, I guess Trump could lose lower merion by a bigger margin but it seems like it was already in the bag for Biden.

gspencer said...

Some cheering news,

https://thenewamerican.com/pollster-who-called-2016-for-trump-says-hell-repeat-in-2020/

Quote,

Trump’s coattails will be broad enough to take back the House and expand the Republican advantage in the Senate:

And we will get back the House easily (almost every seat held by a blue wave 2018 freshman Dem that voted for impeachment) and expand in the Senate by a couple of seats — picking up MI AL definitively and possibly MN while defending IA NC AZ ME easily and only likely failing to defend in CO.

cubanbob said...

Democrats rioting in Philly. I wonder if the moms in the nearby burbs are having an Oh Shit moment regarding voting Democrat.

Bushman of the Kohlrabi said...

I think Wisconsin is lost for Trump. He pulled advertising here weeks ago. Nothing but wall to wall Biden ads day after day on TV. Biden signs leading by about 4 to 1 in my red county. I'm afraid suburban Wisconsin women are going big for Slow Joe.

I had faith in the Wisconsin electorate until the election of Tony Evers, easily one of the most feckless, incompetent governors in the country. I no longer assume common sense will prevail here.

That said, I hope the good things I hear about Trump in the other must win states are true.


Gospace said...

tim in vermont said...
The thing that I saw driving through PA was that businesses were quite happy to have large Trump signs displayed, which tells me that they know their customers are alright with it. I also noticed that in 2016. It’s pretty ballsy move if Trump is so unpopular.


I spotted at least 3 PA businesses with Trump signs posed or Trump flags flying driving from NY to Hanover PA to attend an out of state wedding (Shhh- don't tell Dictator Cuomo!) And- in NY, one agricultural supply company with a huge outside wall covered in a pro-Trump message. Not mass produced- painted on. I wonder who NY farmers are voting for....

And as Bill Peschel said, all the Biden signs are mass produced, and the little lawn signs that people running for town council or school board elections. The basic Trump flag is 3' X 5'. Some small mass produced Trump-Pence signs, but most are larger. And a large number of homemade signs on 4' x 8' plywood sheets. And a few F--K Cuomo homemade sigs just as large in the countryside. Haven't seen any in towns. And as has been mentioned before in comment threads- if you see a Gadsden Flag, or a Bennington 76 Flag, or any other historical flag flying without any political signs- they are the political signs. And they're not voting for Biden.

One thing, BTW, that supporters of the NPVC don't realize is, if enough states sign on, and the courts don't rule it unconstitutional, which it is, it changes the voter turnout. In NY, NJ, CT, MA, CT, and IL there's often no point in Republicans showing up to the polls. That changes if the popular vote is what counts.

BTW, at the reception, none of us were wearing masks, and it's now been 3 weeks with no covid cases among the attendees. Remarkable, isn't it? I went to a viewing this last Saturday in NY. Didn't stay for the service because they were already at Dictator Cuomo's max service attendance of 70. The funeral home was mandating masks- but they didn't stop the hugging of the bereaved and total disregard for social distancing. Only been 3 days now- but no covid outbreak.

The wedding was my second out of state to PA visit during the covidiocy. The first one I had to wear the stupid mask anytime I walked through the hotel I was in for 3 days. I attribute my sinus infection to the constant rebreathing of bacteria caught on the mask as I exhaled then breathed back in, increasing the bacterial load so my immune system was overwhelmed. I took zinc along with the prescribed azithromycin that was prescribed.

I'm Full of Soup said...

Nah Tim no correlation. Per David’s comment at 9:20pm, my area is 75% far left liberal intolerant beta boys and girls.

Fritz said...

We drove to #2 sons house in rural PA near Pittsburgh this weekend. Lots of Trump banners and signs, a few for Biden. But I don't think there's much doubt that Trump will get the most votes in rural PA. But will it be enough to exceed the margin of fraud in Philadelphia (and Scranton)?

Birkel said...

Bushman,
And yet the early voting plus VBM shows Trump with a lead.
In Wisconsin.
In Michigan.
In Pennsylvania.

Biden is performing below Hillary's 2016 pace.
All you pansies need to stop with the Gell-Mann crap.

Birkel said...

Biden is down 10% to Hillary's pace -- in Philly.
Trump is up 9% to his own 2016 pace -- in Philly.

The American people are good and decent.
The Democraticals are not good.
The Democraticals are not decent.

Mr. Forward said...

"Trump voters are more likely to buy cookies..."
As if I needed another reason to vote for Trump.

AllenS said...

Bushman of the Kohlrabi said...
I think Wisconsin is lost for Trump. He pulled advertising here weeks ago. Nothing but wall to wall Biden ads day after day on TV. Biden signs leading by about 4 to 1 in my red county. I'm afraid suburban Wisconsin women are going big for Slow Joe.

What county do you live in? I'm in Polk County, one mile north of St Croix County, and there are more Trump ads than Biden ads on the radio. There are far, far more Trump signs. We don't have any local tv here.

wendybar said...

And the Propagandists continue to ignore the gorilla in the room. The Biden family corruption selling us out to China. You wonder WHY the media won't blame China for the virus??? Ask Joe Biden.

Rusty said...

BofK said'
"I had faith in the Wisconsin electorate until the election of Tony Evers, easily one of the most feckless, incompetent governors in the country."
I give you Governor Pritzker. Yet another Illinois governor under investigation.

Doug said...

Achilles said:And there just aren't that many stupid women around.

I assume you have statistical proof that will counter all my anecdotal evidence?

RMc said...

"Is Joe Biden Toast If He Loses Pennsylvania?"

I think Joe Biden might be toast no matter what. At this rate, he'll either be (a) jailed or (b) impeached, removed and then jailed.

Leland said...

Nate Silver has gone full on editorialist rather than statistician. He's claiming the only way Trump wins is either a massive polling error (greater than last time) or the election is stolen. Of course, he believes the election was stolen last time. Silver also claims Biden has an over 80% chance of winning, but that will climb to 95% by election day. Why Silver? Well he claims that's the case unless polls tighten. Guess what, polls are tightening. But then Silver is out there criticizing the tightening polls (because he doesn't believe Trump will flip that many voters) or explaining how Trump could win Pennsylvania, but that Biden will win everything else (because he does believe Biden will flip that many voters).

MadisonMan said...

I had faith in the Wisconsin electorate until the election of Tony Evers, easily one of the most feckless, incompetent governors in the country
He's dull. I think some portion of the electorate was tired of fireworks and opted for dull. The Democratic Party took notice of this, and nominated someone dull after creating fireworks/chaos for 4 years of Trump. We'll see if it works.
I was not surprised when Trump was elected. I have no clue what will happen on Tuesday.

Dan from Madison said...

I find it interesting that nobody is talking about Ohio. Guess that one is totally in the bag for Trump.

Bushman of the Kohlrabi said...

AllenS, I live in Ozaukee Co., one of the WOW counties that typically votes 65% red. I've never seen more that a few scattered Dem signs in any previous election. This time is different. Even seeing Biden signs in the most rural areas. If Trump doesn't get huge numbers in the WOW counties, he's done.

As for radio, WISN, the most conservative station in the state, has been bombarded with Biden ads for at least the last month. I rarely hear a Trump ad. They reported this morning that Dems are pouring unheard of sums of cash in races that were previously believed to be out of reach due to Trump's poor numbers.

I stream television via HULU. I continually see commercial breaks consisting of multiple back-to-back Biden ads. Maybe I'll see 1 pro-Trump PAC ad a week. I don't recall the last official Trump campaign TV ad I've seen.

Maybe the Trump campaign is really playing 5th level chess in Wisconsin with this strategy but I'm skeptical.

Gusty Winds said...

ABC / Washington Post has a poll out this morning with Biden up 57-40 in Wisconsin. Anyone who lives here and knows how tight the gubernatorial races, Supreme Court races and others know it’s all bullshit.

Gusty Winds said...

Bushman of the Kohlrabi said... “I'm afraid suburban Wisconsin women are going big for Slow Joe.” The Bushman may be right. It will go down in Wisconsin political history as The Great Betrayal of 2020. And if true, it will be Generation X women leading the charge. I think part of it is that the Suburban mom is conditioned to kiss ass to the local public school teachers thinking it benefits their children. I would expect divorce rates to increase.

Rusty said...

Leland.
The dems have been prepping the battle space with "stolen election" since January.
Project Veritas has uncovered vote buying by democrat operatives in Texas. It will be interesting to see if any one id prosecuted but I wont hold my breath.

Jersey Fled said...

Many believe that the polls will tighten in the remaining days as pollsters seek to regain credibility. I don't think so. The pollsters are all in for Biden (or should I say Harris) and credibility be damned.

On a related note, Hugh Hewitt interviewed Chuck Todd a few days ago and questioned him about how polls work. Todd said that the polling companies handle the "logistics" of the polls (making the calls, tabulation the data, etc) but the sponsoring partner, i.e. ABC News in this case, is responsible for all "editorial" aspects. This includes drafting the questions that are asked, how they are worded, and the order in which they are asked.

Anyone who knows anything about polling knows that you can get significantly different results by manipulating those factors. I won't go into detail here. Most of you are very smart people.

Todd went on to say that the sponsor and polling firm "collaborate" on weighting issues. These include turnout models, party weighting, and so on. Again, more room for mischief.

Don't be surprised if after a Trump win, the polls are used as proof that the election results were invalid. Remember how some on the Left tried to make that case in the Bush/Kerry election in the 2004? In that case the issue was between the voting results and the exit polling.

Stay tuned.

Kai Akker said...

A shellacking is what the Democrats are in for, partly from Trump's leadership positives, but as much from their own destructive stupidity. Question is, will that shellacking teach any of them any lessons about their huge cognitive dissonance?

For most, no. The howling, screaming Mizzou picture will capture the reaction; then the rioting. But at the margin, some who are already dubious about the leftist swing will speak out. It will start to erode the Party as now constituted from the edge inward. The Pelosians and aoc's will be on their asses and it will be instructive to see how the DNC attempts to rebuild.

The open question is: will Trump be the right President for the next four years. In financial ways, the answer is already clearly NO, IMO. He will be profligate as the markets face up to the Covid and cyclical damages already inflicted. In liberties and constitutionalism, the answer is unmistakable and that is why he will win again.

Static Ping said...

Let me put it this way.

For the past four years, the main stream media has been lying to me. I know they have been lying to me. I can prove they have been lying to me. I always knew they were biased, but I hadn't realized how biased. This year it has gotten so overt that it resembles propaganda from a communist country.

Am I supposed to believe their polls? What kind of fool would I be to trust a liar? They lie about everything else but I am supposed to trust them in this one specific area because they would never ever ever lie about the polls? I will admit that I can be slow on the uptake, but golly I've never been that stupid.

Anyway, the public polls are for the rubes. The internal polling of the campaigns is what the campaigns believe. You may have noticed that the Biden campaign itself said the polls with Biden +20 are nonsense, so even they are calling the polls out as garbage. They are not admitting they are losing - why would they - but the lying has gotten so ridiculous that it was actually counterproductive and had the risk of suppressing their own vote.

Who's going to win? Don't know. The reality of the situation is I am starved of reliable information and parsing propaganda is a fool's game. What I am seeing from the campaigns is neither side is acting as if this is a done deal and that the Biden campaign thinks this is a lot closer than than any of the public polls would indicate.

Birkel said...

Bushman ignores the numbers.
The numbers show more Republicans have voted in Wisconsin than have Democraticals.
But feels or some shit.

Just quit it.
Track the numbers not the feels.

exiledonmainstreet, green-eyed devil said...

"Who's going to win? Don't know. The reality of the situation is I am starved of reliable information and parsing propaganda is a fool's game."

While I caution against accepting any one source of information as Gospel, I find Robert Barnes and Rich Baris of The People's Pundit Daily to be quite informative. Barnes made $500,000 betting that Trump would win in 2016 and he gives Trump a 75 percent shot now.

They break down swing state demographics at the county level and explain common polling errors and they don't sugar coat it when they think specific candidates are doing poorly. They believe the white male blue collar voter is greatly underrepresented in polling numbers and urban whites with post-graduation education are greatly oversampled. Why? Because white liberals are willing to talk to others about their politics. Blue collar males not so much.

https://www.youtube.com/c/PeoplesPunditDaily%20

DavidUW said...

The Wisconsin numbers are very puzzling.
Polls say what they say, but then
TargetSmart says a disproportionate number of rural votes have come in already. Unless rural areas switched to Biden, this would seem positive for Trump.
Furthermore, the proportion of urban votes (i.e. Milwaukee and Madison) is the same as 4 years ago. That's how Hilary lost, not turning out another 100,000 votes in Milwaukee.

All I know is anyone who thinks Biden is going to get Reagan-like landslides is smoking what Hunter's got. He could still win, but if we had the bets going, I'll take the under on that 57% BS.

Greg The Class Traitor said...

Birkel said...
The numbers show more Republicans have voted in Wisconsin than have Democraticals.

I desperately want Trump to win.

But I don't want to lie to myself.

So, where are you getting that information, since WI doesn't track voter Party affiliation.

Greg The Class Traitor said...

Jersey Fled said...
Many believe that the polls will tighten in the remaining days as pollsters seek to regain credibility. I don't think so. The pollsters are all in for Biden (or should I say Harris) and credibility be damned.

Ted Frank was on Twitter last night pointing out that the behavior of the 538 reported "polling results" is not following "normal behavior".

Which is to say:
If 50 people each flip a coin 50 times and report the results, you'll get a "Normal Distribution" of results.
"Polling error" is supposed to follow a Normal Distribution.
538's "polling average" is essentially unchanged from last week.
So if follows that the changes in the individual polls should follow a Normal Distribution.

They don't. There's enough results there that we should be seeing some > 1 SD changes in poll results, but we aren't.

Which is a strong indication that the people reporting the "polling results" are massaging the data in order to make sure it matches their beliefs.

Which is to say that trusting those polls is roughly equivalent to the drunk searching for his keys by a lightpost "because the light's better here."

Greg The Class Traitor said...

Bushman of the Kohlrabi said...
As for radio, WISN, the most conservative station in the state, has been bombarded with Biden ads for at least the last month

There was one election where, after hearing one too many ad for the Democrat House member, I ended up actually donating to his opponent's campaign.

Which got me an invitation to go to that candidate's "victory party" (Election Night results watching / party).

The GOP challenger won. It was a really fun night.

I don't know. Maybe the Biden campaign is running really great ads on WISN. But I would bet $5, on general principles, that those ads are acting as Trump GoTV, not Biden support

hstad said...

LOL - NY Times own poll shows that Trump is doing significantly better than 2016. "...According to the Times/Siena poll, Mr. Trump was supported by 24 percent of Philadelphians, nine points ahead of his exit poll numbers in 2016...” If this poll is correct Biden is toast in PA.

loudogblog said...

The last time I heard someone use the word, transmogrified, was in Eric Idle's brilliant mocumentary: The Rutles - All You Need is Cash. He played Dr. Stanley J. Krammerhead III who was a professor of music at the university of Please Yourself California. They asked him to explain just how good, musically, the Rutles were. His answer was a completely incomprehensible word salad.

loudogblog said...

Here's the youtube video clip of it. (I was wrong about his job title. He is actually a professor of Applied Narcotics, not Music.) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2jdujUF0was

Birkel said...

Greg,
Those are estimates based on available data, laid over geography, and voting rates from 2016 in those same geographies applied to current voting numbers.

Imprecise but better than a poll that assume 37-28 D/R splits in a country Gallup tells us is 27-28 D/R.
Also, Gallup quit doing presidential polling because they said it could no longer reliably be done.

Kai Akker said...

---According to the Times/Siena poll, Mr. Trump was supported by 24 percent of Philadelphians, nine points ahead of his exit poll numbers in 2016 [hstad]

Sweet.

Every other lighting pole on Germantown Avenue, a major artery that traverses two-thirds of Philadelphia through the poorest and the richest neighborhoods, now has a huge banner that looks like it reads VOTE TRUMP. I was astounded but willing to believe the Trump team had been so bold. The banner material is sufficiently large that it flags, and it was only later that I saw the word STOP in front of TRUMP.

Only a city crew could have done this, I would wager. I was only on a few blocks of the street, so I don't know if it carries all 150 or so blocks. It might be the work of the Democratic Party, but that and city government are so synonymous there is not really any distinction. Yet they used to pretend there was a distinction. All those pretenses, as many have observed about the media reporting, have been dropped.

That's one of the reasons it will hurt them worse and do serious and lasting damage to the Establishment this time, I believe.

If the NYTimes poll is correct (so hard to believe!), there must be a lot of black support here for Trump. The white liberals won't change their minds even after they invite BLM inside for tea.

Greg The Class Traitor said...

Thanks Birkel

Churchy LaFemme: said...

The last time I heard someone use the word, transmogrified, was in Eric Idle's brilliant mocumentary

Possibly you haven't read enough Calvin & Hobbes..

Static Ping said...

To go into why the polls are questionable at best, the polls have Biden winning Michigan easily. Also, Biden and Obama are campaigning there on Saturday. These two facts are not compatible.

TheOne Who Is Not Obeyed said...

Very odd behavior for Trump if he thinks he's lost Wisconsin - he and his surrogates have been on the ground, in person, repeatedly for the last few weeks. Even Sleepy Joe is making (made? I think I lost track) a visit here, as have some of his less interesting surrogates (Warren, "Dr" Jill). That would be odd if Biden is walking away with the state. I mean, the dude barely gets out of his basement and one of the few times he does he comes to Wisconsin?

One thing I did note is Trump gets a ton of free press when he comes here - every pet Doctor of the local media screams about his rallies being 'superspreader' events and how everyone there is surely going to die of the Wuhan Lung Rot. (I may be exaggerating, but only slightly.)

I think no one has a clue what Wisconsin is doing. I do suspect it's not as important to Trump's strategy as it was in 2016, which is why it may feel he's pulled out of it. But all the signs say it's truly a toss-up and it's too close to call. OTOH, I am a-fearin' it's going to go blue next week. Sad!