September 18, 2020

What just happened?

Trump just leapt 7 points in one day in the "strongly approve" column at Rasmussen.



Click to enlarge and clarify.

The change in the approve column was only 2 points. It's the strongly approved that jumped. In one day. Some of that is just the usual imprecision of polls, but that's a huge jump. Did something specific happen? There was the signing of the Middle East agreement. That was 3 days ago.

There was the news that Trump got nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize — for 2 different peace agreements. I see — also at Rasmussen — that "A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 45% of American Adults think Trump should be given the Nobel Peace Prize for the new peace deals and keeping America out of new wars, among other things." 46% say he doesn't, so Biden backers can hold tight to that.

Can it be the 1776 project, designed to go counter the 1619 Project?
The [1776 Unites] curriculum, developed by civil rights leader Bob Woodson and American Enterprise Institute scholar Ian Rowe... "maintains a special focus on stories that celebrate black excellence, reject victimhood culture, and showcase African-Americans who have prospered by embracing America’s founding ideals"....

The New York Times Magazine launched the 1619 Project last year on the 400th anniversary of the beginning of slavery in America. It aims to "reframe the country’s history by placing the consequences of slavery and the contributions of black Americans at the very center of our national narrative." The Times' project has since expanded into a full-fledged curriculum, with tens of thousands of students in all 50 states using the materials....

A group of historians led by Princeton professor Sean Wilentz wrote a letter to the New York Times that cites multiple factual errors in the project. "On the American Revolution, pivotal to any account of our history, the project asserts that the founders declared the colonies’ independence of Britain 'in order to ensure slavery would continue.' This is not true," said the letter, which the Times published in December 2019....

President Trump has been a vocal critic of the 1619 Project, arguing Thursday that it "rewrites American history to teach our children that we were founded on the principle of oppression, not freedom." The president said he is creating a "1776 Commission" to "promote patriotic education."
I think Trump's statement yesterday is too recent to have affected today's poll, but I would like to hear Biden challenged to answer a question like: Do you support the viewpoint expressed in the 1619 Project and do you think it should be taught in the schools, or would it be better to teach schoolchildren something more like the 1776 Unites curriculum?

117 comments:

Craig Howard said...

Preference cascade starting.

exhelodrvr1 said...

Covid decreasing, economy improving, opposition to rioting increasing as more people become aware of how severe it has been, comparisons to Biden's mental capacity favors Trump,

tcrosse said...

Is there a movement in Biden-Harris numbers, equal in force and opposite in direction?

Greg The Class Traitor said...

The usual guess is that he got a weird sample one day

Come back in a week, if the strong approve is still that high, then Ras caught a real change

Nonapod said...

Let preface this by saying I still don't trust any of these polls.

But since these are generally people who hypothetically moved from the "approved" to the "strongly approved" category (as opposed to people who moved all the way from "dissapprove" to "strongly approve" which seems far less likely) I just assume that they're really liking Trump's activity, specifically things like the ME peace agreement and his recent public statements about things like the police killings and the like.

Wilbur said...

I got a whole lot of questions I'd like to see asked of Joe Biden.

C'mon, man.

Mike Sylwester said...

On which day did "strongly approve" go up 7 points?

Unknown said...

I think it might be more likely to be the "Quartermaster video".

TelfordWork said...

Probably best to wait a few days before thinking too hard about it.

doctrev said...

Wrong, Professor. 5% strongly approve of the President. Another 2% moved out of the disapprove pile- including 2% out of Strongly Disapprove.

Honestly, I'm surprised the numbers aren't higher, but be real. The President of the United States has started a path to an official, enduring peace between the Arab states and Israel. And his name is Donald Trump.

bbear said...

Maybe it's dawning on the minority of Americans not narcotized by saturated fat and network programing that they're about to install Willie Brown's Boo as President of the United States.

Fernandinande said...

"The margin of sampling error for the full sample of 1,500 Likely Voters is +/- 2.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence." Daily Presidential Tracking Poll, September 18.

That means that in 1 out of 20 polls the error is probably > +/- 2.5%. That doesn't mean that the 7 point increase is due to an error.

Sebastian said...

"I would like to hear Biden challenged"

Why? What's the point? What would it tell you about Biden that you don't already know? What would it tell us about a Biden administration that would depend in any way on his answer?

Bob Boyd said...

Does Rasmussen identify itself to those they contact for a poll?

I wonder if Trump supporters are more willing to be honest with Rasmussen than other polling outfits because they read Rasmussen polls quoted by conservative and non anti-Trump news sources and they've seen Rasmussen numbers have tended to be higher for Trump than other pollsters.


Temujin said...

This goes to my earlier comment today in the Joe Rogan post. The public no longer uses the mainstream media for it's source of information. If they had, no one would know that there were peace agreements drawn up and signed by Israel, UAE, and Bahrain. Further, no one would have known about a peace agreement Trump's team put together between Kosovo and Serbia.

These are BIG deals. The press either ignored them, or minimized them, or threw crap on them. Instead, the media focused on people not wearing masks to attend a Trump campaign stop. The question isn't why the strongly approved jumped up by 7 points in one day. The question should be, "Why only 7?"

wendybar said...

Because people aren't being silent anymore. We've had enough of the Propaganda left and their lies, and their hate and violence.

Expat(ish) said...

Conspiracy theorists might says that "some" of "these" people are hoping to dampen the enthusiasm of Trump voters.

You know, the ones that pounce.

-XC

Achilles said...

7 points is within the margin of error for most numbers of participants below 1000.

If you are talking about poll results you have to include confidence intervals.

You also have to discuss poll weighting.

The error you are making is that you think the polls actually reflect anything other than what the pollster wants people to think.

Rasmussen purports to be trying to get an accurate read of what Americans think. All he has to do to get that 7% jump is to shift party registration weighting.

He is guessing like everyone else.

J. Farmer said...

A few thoughts...

(1) The Nobel Peace Prize is a bad joke. Obama and the EU were two of the more recently absurd recipients.

(2) As best I can tell, there has pretty much been near-unanimity to use the government's bogus term "peace agreement." Lack of bilateral relations and a state of ware are fundamentally different dynamics. No state is obligated to extend bilateral relations to any other state. The Egyptian peace treaty settled hostilities from the Yom Kippur War, and the Jordanian peace treaty settled hostilities from the 1948 war.

(3) No new wars is undoubtedly good news, but it is a pathetically low bar and demonstrates just how over reliant on a hyper-militaristic posture we've been. Nonetheless, the "endless wars" remain endless. We have troops in Iraq and Syria with no real purpose, and the Afghanistan troop levels will remain for now about where they were when Obama left office. We've also added 14,000 more troops to the region, including stationing 3,000 in Saudi Arabia. Unsurprisingly, Mohammed bin Salman has Kushner and Trump wrapped around his finger.

Churchy LaFemme: said...

It's not all on Trump.

I suspect that the more people see of Biden, the more that unease grows.

Michael K said...

Joe will really need his teleprompter to answer that one.

Achilles said...

The polls do not matter.

The democrat party has given up on convincing legitimate voters.

They are banking completely on election fraud and dragging the election out to the point where the House votes who is president.

Guess who the House will vote for to be president.

Original Mike said...

"46% say he doesn't, so Biden backers can hold tight to that."

Those are the Biden backers.

Fernandinande said...

Do you support the viewpoint expressed in the 1619 Project and do you think it should be taught in the schools,

It's mostly fictional, so of course it should not be "taught" anywhere.

JohnAnnArbor said...

I would like to hear Biden challenged to answer a question like: Do you support the viewpoint expressed in the 1619 Project and do you think it should be taught in the schools, or would it be better to teach schoolchildren something more like the 1776 Unites curriculum?

You're right, that would be a good and fair question for Biden, especially with some introduction about how 1619 is deliberately wrong in many places and seeks to teach a fragmentary history, leaving out anything politically inconvenient to the "curriculum" developers.

Such questions will NEVER be asked, of course.

daskol said...

The 1776 project, and Trump's surprisingly articulate and even eloquent critique of 1619 Project/BLM/Antifa and praise of America, were pleasant surprises to me this week. Not only does he fight hard, but can he can actually "go high" as progressives like to say, but rarely achieve. He's grown in office, and yet he looks invigorated by the last several years. Like fracking and the discovery of huge carbon fuel deposits underneath her, America just keeps getting lucky: when it seems like despair is in order because all is lost, we just get crazy fucking lucky. Bismarck nailed: God's got time for fools, drunks and good ole US of A. It's not exactly a plan, but it's worked so far.

Craig said...

Measurement error. Nothing to see here. The public is still brainwashed.

If Biden gets through the debates OK, he will be President.

tim in vermont said...

"46% say he doesn't, so Biden backers can hold tight to that.”

It’s amazing how politics defines their reality. They could have done a pro-Trump push poll simply by reading the standards for the Nobel Peace Prize, which Trump should have already won at least once for his efforts with the Norks.

“To those who have "done the most or the best work for fraternity between nations, for the abolition or reduction of standing armies and for the holding and promotion of peace congresses".[4]” - Wikipedia

I would be interested to hear the case against Trump given these are the standards, I mean besides his short fingers and orange hair.

BTW, what has happened to Kim? There was a second report that he was dead, and that his earlier appearence was faked.

Big Mike said...

Maybe the “shy Trump voters” are becoming bolder? I’m going to look at Rasmussen and see whether there’s an approval rating for Handsy Joe Biden.

danoso said...

Personally I'd like to hear Trump ask Biden at the first debate - "Joe, I think All Lives Matter. How about you?"

The race will be over within 30 seconds.

mjg235 said...

Trump investigating Princeton for racism due to the virtue signaling of its moron President is Mt Rushmore-worthy.

Heartless Aztec said...

Biden get a real question? Hahaha. From you and who's media?

Dave Begley said...

Althouse blog is the second mention I've seen of the 1776 Unites Project.

How brilliant is that?

The first mention was by NYC novelist and Omaha native Kurt Anderson. He compared it to some type of Hitler Youth thing. What a fucking idiot. And I should note that he did NOT attend Creighton Prep, my alma mater.

FryingPanHead said...

Click to enlarge and clarify.

Click to embiggen, lady. Click to embiggen.

WisRich said...

Ann said:

"I would like to hear Biden challenged to answer a question like: Do you support the viewpoint expressed in the 1619 Project and do you think it should be taught in the schools, or would it be better to teach schoolchildren something more like the 1776 Unites curriculum?"

Great question Ann therefore it will never be asked.

Can Of Cheese for Hunter said...

Gotta keep blacks down, uneducated, angry and on the democrat party plantation.

Why do you think Obama nixed the school choice in black DC neighborhoods as his first order of business back in 2009? Obama knows where his bread is buttered.
Obama is wealthy. He does not care about anything but keeping his party in power.


gerry said...

I would like to hear Biden challenged to answer a question like: Do you support the viewpoint expressed in the 1619 Project and do you think it should be taught in the schools, or would it be better to teach schoolchildren something more like the 1776 Unites curriculum?

That ain't gonna happen.

clint said...

@Achilles-

"Guess who the House will vote for to be president."

Trump.

If it gets to the House, it's a weird one-vote-per-state voting system, and the GOP wins that.

Of course, if it gets to that point, I'd imagine Nancy Pelosi might refuse to hold the vote at all (see: refusing to transmit articles of impeachment to the Senate...), so we might well end up with President Pence, or if the Senate doesn't vote either, President Pelosi.

rwnutjob said...

Not Rasmussen I don't think, but others who had had Trump way down, started right sizing their polls as the election came closer in 2016, so they didn't look like the total hacks they really were.

Amy said...

As a boomer who was raised with a strong message of the promise and possibilities in our country, I would prefer a strong 1776-type message to be taught to kids today. A message of victimization helps no one.

My husband and I reflect back on the messaging imparted in our elementary school years and how much it shaped us. I feel that we (now in our mid-60's) grew up in the best years of America.

I clearly remember our (public) elementary school principal shouting drill-sergeant style as we walked down the hall "Heads up. You are proud young Americans!" Those were wonderful years.

Robert Cook said...

As the Althouse Reg'lars always assert, the polls are fixed!

J. Farmer said...

"I would like to hear Biden challenged to answer a question like: Do you support the viewpoint expressed in the 1619 Project and do you think it should be taught in the schools, or would it be better to teach schoolchildren something more like the 1776 Unites curriculum?"

Why is it either/or? You can't understand American history without understanding the role the institution of slavery played in it and continues to play today. The Republic that was brought into existence in 1787 failed in 1861 and was replaced by an empire, complete with occupation and nation-building. An economically devastated south had to accommodate freed black slaves and quickly began erecting barriers to black integration and enfranchisement. From that we get the Great Migration and the Civil Rights movement that in the 1960s would completely reorient southern politics and society. A huge civil rights bureaucracy with tentacles stretching throughout the court system, housing, employment, and education. Meanwhile, race riots have continued to be a regular feature of the American landscape.

Rabel said...

Rasmussen uses a three day rolling average. The gap should grow over the next day or two if there has been a genuine shift in public opinion.

rehajm said...

Keep in mind this is a tracking poll with a rolling average. Trump has been over 50 percent approval for almost a week, I believe.

...and Rasmussen polls differently than the school and network polls- internet, no live calls, I believe. Ras claims greater accuracy, capturing the shy voters,etc. Also they have been using a D +2 sample vs the networks that are D +6 or higher.

You can tell the networks are doing this when they hide the methodology- which is very common this cycle. It's propaganda, not polling...

J. Farmer said...

@BleachBit-and-Hammers:

Gotta keep blacks down, uneducated, angry and on the democrat party plantation.

I used to be quite sympathetic to this argument, and it is the classic conservative critique of post-60's black dysfunction. The pathologies in the black community are not primarily driven by welfare dependency, a democratic plantation, systemic racism, or a lack of moral agency. They're driven by ]cognitive and behavioral differences between blacks and non-blacks that are grounded in biology.

Rory said...

Biden's been getting out more.

NorthOfTheOneOhOne said...

Why is it something Trump did? Why couldn't it be something Trump didn't do? Or why couldn't it be something Biden did or didn't do?

Mysteries abound!

Bay Area Guy said...

In the summer of 1976, Carter lead Ford by 33 points. . Carter ended up winning only 50 - 48.

In the summer of 1988, Michael Dukakis lead Poppa Bush by 17 points. Poppa Bush won by 8

The media narrative is that Ford and Poppa closed the gap -- they made a big run down the home stretch!

No, I say. The polling was exaggerated. It was never that big a lead.

Look at all the bad polling in 2016. Florida Senator, Fla Governor, Missouri Senate, the Presidential states Wis, Mich, Ohio, & Penn.

The pollsters are quacks. They fudge the grey areas to appease their leftwing paymasters. But there are a few polling exceptions. Rasmussen, Trafalgar, Democracy Institute, Zogby and Big Data Polling.

The Betting Odds have it Biden 52-47 -- slightly more than 50-50 for Biden. But I think the actual odds are Trump slightly greater than 50-50. Ordinary people don't want riots, looting, arson, murdering cops or high taxes. And they certainly don't want a doddering figurehead like Slow Joe to let the radical violent left run wild.

Let's see if I'm right in November.

Fernandinande said...

The pathologies in the black community are not primarily driven by welfare dependency, a democratic plantation, systemic racism, or a lack of moral agency. They're driven by ]cognitive and behavioral differences between blacks and non-blacks that are grounded in biology.

Which is why the pathologies (crime/murder/poverty, the last to a lesser extent) are essentially the same, relative to the rest of the US, as they were 100 years ago.

Narayanan said...

Sebastian said...
"I would like to hear Biden challenged"

Why? What's the point? What would it tell you about Biden that you don't already know? What would it tell us about a Biden administration that would depend in any way on his answer?
----------==========
think about it this way >>>> challenging Biden is a self-challenging task for the Media >>> scaring them shitless?.

Mike Sylwester said...

On which day did "strongly approve" go up 7 points?

Vance said...

I don’t believe the polls showing Biden ahead, so I am suspect of this one as well.

Michael K said...

They're driven by ]cognitive and behavioral differences between blacks and non-blacks that are grounded in biology.

Half right. There are jobs that could be filled by the blacks that are culturally lost. I am old enough to remember when that was true and it isn't just the loss of manufacturing assembly line jobs. That makes it harder but it's cultural.

rcocean said...

The declaration of independence attacks the slave trade. In fact, almost all of the colonies wanted the slave trade abolished in 1788, but SC & GA refused to go along, so it was deferred till 1807 or 1808. State laws in VA/NC/MD/DEL outlawed the slave trade in the 1790s. The British didn't get around to outlawing the slave trade till 1808, mostly because we were going to do it, and the Brits didn't want to feel morally inferior.

The British Empire didn't outlaw slavery till 1833, even though they had few slaves except for small numbers in the Caribbean and Cape-town. So, no we didn't need 1776 Independence to keep slavery.

jnseward said...

A lot of people must have watched Biden's Townhall event.

rcocean said...

trump's approval rating is going up, but his poll numbers aren't. Just remember Bush had a high approval rating and got 38% in Nov 1992.

Craig said...

I do believe the polls. Sorry, guys. It's over. We're a one-party country forever starting in 2021.

Freeman Hunt said...

Here's a question: If Trump *doesn't* win the Nobel Peace Prize, what does the Peace Prize mean? Love him or hate him, if the prize has any meaning, shouldn't he receive it?

rcocean said...

Bad polls and Exit Polls:

Romney winning in 2012.
Bush winning in a landslide in 2004, then early exit polls showed him losing.
Reagan and Carter neck and neck late October 1980.
Carter leading Ford by 6% in October
Bush leading Gore 49-43 in late October

Rusty said...

Robert Cook said...
"As the Althouse Reg'lars always assert, the polls are fixed!"
No. We assert that they are wrong and then give reasons why they are wrong.
How you can conclude that we somehow assume they are "fixed" is a puzzlement.

Greg The Class Traitor said...

J. Farmer said...
"I would like to hear Biden challenged to answer a question like: Do you support the viewpoint expressed in the 1619 Project and do you think it should be taught in the schools, or would it be better to teach schoolchildren something more like the 1776 Unites curriculum?"

Why is it either/or?


Well, J Farmer, supposed American patriot, it's because the 1619 is a complete farrago of lies, from beginning to end, written by people who hate America.

So why would any sane person who doesn't hate America want to include it?

gspencer said...

Nothing "just happened." Trump's support is there. Was always there.

Readering said...

no one has changed their vote based on an israeli embassy in abu dhabi.

Hannio said...

"On which day did "strongly approve" go up 7 points?"

On no day did "strongly approve" go up 7 points.

It was the approval index that went up 7 points from 9/17 to 9/18.

Texan99 said...

"What would it tell you about Biden that you don't already know?"

I wouldn't be the target. There are LIVs just beginning to pay attention as we approach the election. Early voting here starts Oct. 13.

Joe-mentia needs to step on some banana peels on prime-time TV.

John Borell said...

As others said, the press will never, never, never ask Biden that question.

Maybe Joe Rogan would.

But it's a great fucking question.

buwaya said...

The most relevant date, I think, to the current version of the US, that which became a world power, that which developed a culture that prevailed when it was at its height, the golden age that has just passed, is 1889.

US steel production started leading the world that year. In the economic-tech mix of the time steel was the crucial substance, and it was a very high-tech system that was the gateway to all manner of other high tech. That was the US of real riches, of mass industrial employment, of huge productivity. And all the ancilliary industries to support those rich workers and downstream industries. Its no accident, also, that the first massive waves of (not British, Irish, German) non-traditional immigrants began around then, the opening of Ellis Island shortly followed, etc.

The glorious ornate architecture of your great cities started around then, and the wealthy bourgeoise inner suburbs also.

In those years the black population was almost entirely resident in poor low productivity Southern states, and had no part in the creation of this industrial America, a foreign America. When the blacks started moving, immigrating really, to this new America, much later, they were like foreigners in it, like people who had come through Ellis Island.

1619, or 1776 even, had little to do with 1889. Your remaining cultural capital that you still enjoy today comes mainly from 1889, not 1776.

Big Mike said...

This morning I saw a commercial by Joe Biden calling Donald Trump a liar for saying that he (Biden) would raise taxes. Elsewhere I saw something by Biden saying that his tax plan would raise $1.5 trillion dollars.

Then I see a report that last night within a space of minutes Biden was both for and against fracking.

Ah, Democrats, that's not how you do it in the age of the Internet. If you say opposite things to different people, it's going to be recorded.

Wince said...

Robert Cook said...
As the Althouse Reg'lars always assert, the polls are fixed!

As imprecise and biased polls are as outcome predictors for a given sampling, what they can do a better job of is detecting trends and changes in momentum over time.

rehajm said...

Also they have been using a D +2 sample vs the networks that are D +6 or higher.

I need to correct: their sample is D+4. For perspective Hillary won the popular vote by about 2 percent. So despite the outrage from the left about Rasmussen they're technically a left leaning pollster, as they often say....

Greg The Class Traitor said...

rcocean said...
trump's approval rating is going up, but his poll numbers aren't. Just remember Bush had a high approval rating and got 38% in Nov 1992.

Wow, digging deep, there

What did Bill Clinton get, 43%?

And, what, exactly, does "Bush had a high approval rating" mean? Numbers, not words.

IIRC, Obama's approval rating was under water, but he got re-elected over the pitiful Romney. At least in part because "business genius" Romney got suckered by "campaign consultants" who sold his campaign on band new software called "ORCA" on which to do their get out the vote operation.

ORCA was an utter failure, and Obama's GoTV wasn't, so Obama won.

This year, Trump's apparently got really got GoTC, and Biden's team doesn't have a clue. (See MI: "what do you mean, 'on the ground?'")

rcocean said...

The United States Began in 1789, not 1619. And Jamestown was first settled in 1607, not 1619. Those are the first problems with the 1619 project. And you can throw in the fact that New England, and the middle states (excepting MD) had no significant slaves at all, so why is 1619, some special date?

1619 is distorting the history of the USA through the lens of slavery and the experiences of 10% of the population.

bagoh20 said...

Craig Howard nailed it in the first comment: "preference cascade", which is happening in a lot of areas right now:

1) Middle East nations feeling safe in being civil to Israel
2) Covid skeptics feeling safe demanding the truth and an end to tyranny and lies.
3) Athletes and others starting to push back against the BLM fraud that has sucked in so many cowards, signalers, and fools.
4) People feeling safe to be honest about Trump, his performance, and his pro American stand's normalcy and rejection of bigotry.
5) Skepticism of experts, politicians, and the media is flowering like a warm spring day.
6) Realization of the depths of deceit, exploitation, incoherence and incompetence of the Democrats, along with the very real murderous danger of the radical left.

Narayanan said...

Instead, a couple of weeks later, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel, Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan of the United Arab Emirates, and Foreign Minister Abdullatif Al Zayani of Bahrain all came to Washington to sign the Abraham Accords, in which all three promised to “to take the necessary steps to prevent any terrorist or hostile activities against each other on or from their respective territories, as well as deny any support for such activities abroad or allowing such support on or from their respective territories.”
----------===========
more like mutual non-aggression/defense >>>>> if not PEACE AGREEMENTS

Robert Cook said...

"I do believe the polls. Sorry, guys. It's over. We're a one-party country forever starting in 2021."

Ahem...we have been a one-party country for quite some time. There are merely two factions of this uni-party that the slower among our citizenry mistake for two radically different and discrete parties. Presumably, they are believers in political rhetoric, no more true or authentic as indicators of reality than the grunting threats and imprecations spat back and forth by the hypertrophied, colorfully-costumed opponents in professional wrestling matches.

Robert Cook said...

"'Gotta keep blacks down, uneducated, angry and on the democrat party plantation.'

"I used to be quite sympathetic to this argument, and it is the classic conservative critique of post-60's black dysfunction. The pathologies in the black community are not primarily driven by welfare dependency, a democratic plantation, systemic racism, or a lack of moral agency. They're driven by ]cognitive and behavioral differences between blacks and non-blacks that are grounded in biology."


I nearly always enjoy reading J. Farmer's posts. He is informative, rational, logical and measured, a respite from the drearily predictable nonsense offered by the majority of the other commenters here--especially those who disagree with him and "argue" back with infantile taunts and insults which they mistakenly think are clever and are adequate ripostes to Farmer's arguments. It is quite obvious they are too dumb to realize how ridiculous they appear.

However, astonishing comments like this remind me that even the most apparently rational and informed people are human and fallible, and can hold wack-a-doo ideas that seem entirely contrary to everything else one perceives about that person. Such comments raise questions about how presumably rational minds can convince themselves of the craziest things.

Pookie Number 2 said...

As the Althouse Reg'lars always assert, the polls are fixed!

It’s always adorable when a miseducated leftist mocks the deplorable hillbillies. Easier than actually understanding things, that’s for sure.

Drago said...

Greg: "IIRC, Obama's approval rating was under water, but he got re-elected over the pitiful Romney. At least in part because "business genius" Romney got suckered by "campaign consultants" who sold his campaign on band new software called "ORCA" on which to do their get out the vote operation.

ORCA was an utter failure, and Obama's GoTV wasn't, so Obama won."

I was one of those Romney volunteers in 2012 and the Verge article I link to at the bottom explains very well what happened.

A complete failure at all levels from concept and understanding users to architecture to development to testing to deployment to adaptability.

What we found out was Romney and his team of Bain "geniuses" proved once again that they could buy companies and break them up into little pieces and sell off the company parts for an aggregate total greater than the purchase price (at the correct multiples) but couldn't actually manage and operate anything in the real world better than 4 year olds.

Drago said...

https://www.theverge.com/2012/11/9/3624636/killer-fail-how-romneys-broken-orca-app-cost-him-thousands-of-votes

Drago said...

Readering: "no one has changed their vote based on an israeli embassy in abu dhabi."

Everything readering knows about the middle east he/she/xe learned from this "expert" "elite" "insider":

https://twitter.com/yhazony/status/1306476169626374150

Just listen to it........and then laugh and laugh and laugh.

Note how emphatic Kerry is. How certain. How sure. How perfectly......."readering".

Drago said...

Greg: "This year, Trump's apparently got really got GoTC, and Biden's team doesn't have a clue. (See MI: "what do you mean, 'on the ground?'")"

With the now open vote stealing/fraud in play with the PA and MI hack democrat activist judiciary decisions delivering massive ballot harvesting corruption, it may not be enough.

It will be interesting to see how the MI and PA republican parties working with the RNC deal with what will be 3,000% turnout in democrat precincts.

Greg The Class Traitor said...

Readering said...
no one has changed their vote based on an israeli embassy in abu dhabi.

Says the guy who hopes that Israel gets destroyed and all teh jews there murdered in a second Holocaust

Michael K said...

buwaya has a good point about the 1889 peak. That was denigrated by the gliterati as "The Gilded Age" and "Robber Barons." There were panics and depressions, like that of 1893 and then 1907.

Still there was a lot of material progress that drew immigrants. My mother was born in 1898 and her father died in 1899, leaving her mother in poverty but they made it and had good lives.

Jupiter said...

"What would it tell you about Biden that you don't already know?"

What Sebastian said, Althouse. What is it with you, you think this is all a big entertainment, an extravaganza being staged for your amusement, and when it's over we'll all go back to living in America? Evil monsters have hijacked the Democratic Party, and they are planning to hijack the country. They have strapped Biden's moldering corpse to the front of their hatemobile. So what? If Biden's new owners manage to steal this election, they will prop him in front of a teleprompter and a webcam in the basement of the White house and have him read inane speeches until he finally expires. He won't even notice the election is over.

Paul said...

Things are getting better all around. More jobs, chance to cure COVID-19 coming up, economy, Middle East Peace and meanwhile liberal Antifa/BLM is self destructing themselves and the liberal Democrats.

Plus Ensign Fu*kup (Biden) keeps sticking his foot in his mouth. Pelosi isn't helping either!

Still folks.. DON'T GET COCKY. Over a month and a half to go!

Nancy Reyes said...

the silent Trump supporter is now telling pollsters what they think now that a few positive stories about Trump have managed to leak through the negative headlines.
I also think that the "woke" red Guards and riots have finally made people mad, especially when they see the "demonstrators" are affluent white kids who want to bully them, not poor black kids who want justice.

J. Farmer said...

@Greg the Class Traitor:

Well, J Farmer, supposed American patriot, it's because the 1619 is a complete farrago of lies, from beginning to end, written by people who hate America.

So why would any sane person who doesn't hate America want to include it?


I am not talking about any of the particulars of the NYT project, I am talking about the notion that slavery as an institution is one of the central dynamics in understanding US history. You can't understand US history if you don't understand the role of slavery in shaping that history. Consequently, racial problems persist, as they have always persisted and will always persist.

The appeal of the partisan worldview is that you have identifiable enemy history on which all blame can be placed and who theoretically can be bested in democratic competition. It's a complete fairy tale, but it's useful. It's similar to the appeal of conspiracy theories. Many times, what we are actually seeing is the emergent behavior of discrete entities acting self-interestedly.

J. Farmer said...

@Michael K:

Half right. There are jobs that could be filled by the blacks that are culturally lost. I am old enough to remember when that was true and it isn't just the loss of manufacturing assembly line jobs. That makes it harder but it's cultural.

Black men tend to be the worst hit economically by mass low-skilled immigration, as well. The move to a "post-industrial economy" over the last 40 years or so has tended to increase the relative worth of high IQ's and decrease the relative worth of low IQ's.

J. Farmer said...

@buwaya:

1619, or 1776 even, had little to do with 1889. Your remaining cultural capital that you still enjoy today comes mainly from 1889, not 1776.

Like in French historiography, you could make a case that post-Reconstruction was really the beginning of the Second American Republic, after the Civil War ended First. The Spanish-American War was also the real beginning of incorporating the South back into the national identity. Four former Confederate Generals served in the US Army. The Panic of 1893 had subsided, and the US experienced a huge amount of growth until 1929.

Drago said...

According to John Kerry, who is universally recognized by all our leftist/democratical/LLR-lefty betters as an "elite" "expert" who totally gets the "deep nuances" of the middle east and has a "full understanding of the history of the region and all key players involved" as well as a "full understanding of the dreams and desires of the competing parties", Donald Trump has literally delivered The Impossible.

Literally.

The Trump campaign really ought to make that into a commercial for specific locales.

Stu Grimshaw said...

rcocean said...
trump's approval rating is going up, but his poll numbers aren't. Just remember Bush had a high approval rating and got 38% in Nov 1992.

Huh? Bush’s approval rating in Sep/Oct 1992 hovered around 35%. Which is about the same as what his vote share ended up being.

tim in vermont said...

Nancy Pelosi, granddaughter of a Boston mobster knows!

The internal polls must be bad. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) did a complete 180 on Thursday and called for rioters to be prosecuted. We support peaceful demonstrations. We participate in them. They are part of the essence of our democracy. That does not include looting, starting fires, or rioting. They should be prosecuted. That is lawlessness,” Pelosi said

Strange it took this long.

Matthew Heintz said...

J. Farmer, what I have enjoyed most about your comments recently is the lack of them.

I Callahan said...

and continues to play today

It plays no role today. That some grievance mongers are USING slavery as an excuse doesn’t change that.

Doug said...

It is beside the point to ask Biden questions. He's a decoy. I don't think Jill Biden knows how to throw elbows with the DNC - Slow Joe is out. Prepare to battle Harris's handlers.

Matt Sablan said...

A combination of things, I think. Not the least of which is that people are seeing that supporting Trump is safe, and I think it helps that Trump has now had several weeks against a real person, not Generic Democrat, so people are deciding between two obviously flawed individuals instead of Orange Man, who is Bad, and Generic Democrat, who will be exactly what I want.

wholelottasplainin' said...

rcocean said...
The British Empire didn't outlaw slavery till 1833, even though they had few slaves except for small numbers in the Caribbean and Cape-town. So, no we didn't need 1776 Independence to keep slavery.
****************

read this:

https://spartacus-educational.com/USASafrica.htm

Over the next 20 years the company exported over 90,000 slaves to the Americas. In the 18th century Britain was mainly interested in Africa as a source of slaves. After a large number of petitions from merchants and manufacturers, the RAC lost its monopoly to provide slaves to the British Empire in 1698. They now opened up the business to independent companies but had to pay high taxes to the British government. This gave them rights to the infrastructure of the RAC. This included the coastal forts where they kept the captured Africans until the arrival of the slave-ships. Between 1698 and 1797, the new companies carried 75,000 slaves, compared to the 18,000 carried by the RAC. (5)

It was estimated in 1796 that "every year about 72,000 slaves are carried from Africa to the West Indies... the Danes carry away about 3,0000, the Dutch 7,000, the French 18,000, the Portuguese 8,000, the English have all the rest." Over 85% of the Africans exported were carried in British ships.

https://www.britannica.com/topic/Slavery-Abolition-Act

Slavery Abolition Act, (1833), in British history, act of Parliament that abolished slavery in most British colonies, freeing more than 800,000 enslaved Africans in the Caribbean and South Africa as well as a small number in Canada.

*********

800,000 is no "small number".

Josephbleau said...

" An economically devastated south had to accommodate freed black slaves and quickly began erecting barriers to black integration and enfranchisement."

Has Farmer finally become a Lost Cause Southern Democrat?

stevew said...

Joe has come out of his basement, Trump's numbers improve. Coincidence? I think not.

mockturtle said...

Nothing 'happened'. These polls are meaningless.

Michael K said...

Black men tend to be the worst hit economically by mass low-skilled immigration, as well. The move to a "post-industrial economy" over the last 40 years or so has tended to increase the relative worth of high IQ's and decrease the relative worth of low IQ's.

I agree, rare as that is. Still, there are jobs that blacks could fill and did in the 1950s. The culture has changed. How many black plumbers do you see?

Drago said...

Cookie: "However, astonishing comments like this remind me that even the most apparently rational and informed people are human and fallible, and can hold wack-a-doo ideas that seem entirely contrary to everything else one perceives about that person. Such comments raise questions about how presumably rational minds can convince themselves of the craziest things."

Yes.

A communist wrote that.

Just now.

As if the last 100 years never happened at all.

rcocean said...

Slavery is NOT the dynamic that explains America. It had no effect on this country after 1865. It had no effect on the settling of the west, or the industrialization of the USA, or life above the Mason-Dixon Line. Even in some slave states the impact wasn't major. Missouri was 90% free citizens in 1860, Kentucky was almost the same. Arkansas had less slaves then people suppose, and west Virginia had almost none. The number of slave owners in 1860? Probably no more than 20% of the Old South which had 25% of the white people.

All this "we need to talk about Slavery" has happened in the last 20 years. Its driven by politics - not historical fact.

Leora said...

I think it was the attack on Critical Race Theory. That's something that worries a lot of people who support him who weren't sure he understood that it was important to take it on.

wbfjrr2 said...

Hmmmmmm

Nothing at all went up 7 points in one day. Strong approve went up 5 points in the latest numbers. 9/10-9/18 is +7.

What’s interesting is he’s 51 or higher in total approval the we current work week.

I don’t trust any polls either, but Rasmussen does poll only “likely voters”, and publishes a rolling 3 day average.

The total garbage one is the RCP average, which just adds up all the garbage polling and averages GIGO.

Guess math isn’t part of the constitutional law program at UW?

wbfjrr2 said...

Hmmmmmm

Nothing at all went up 7 points in one day. Strong approve went up 5 points in the latest numbers. 9/10-9/18 is +7.

What’s interesting is he’s 51 or higher in total approval the we current work week.

I don’t trust any polls either, but Rasmussen does poll only “likely voters”, and publishes a rolling 3 day average.

The total garbage one is the RCP average, which just adds up all the garbage polling and averages GIGO.

Guess math isn’t part of the constitutional law program at UW?

Leora said...

I suspect the idea that blacks are biologically driven to be low status is ridiculous given the high incomes of African immigrants. There's a serious cultural problem which has been fed by a two or three of generations of leftists "helping."

J. Farmer said...

@Matthew Heintz:

J. Farmer, what I have enjoyed most about your comments recently is the lack of them.

To be fair, this is the first thing of yours I've ever read, and it's already too much. Thirty years online, and people's petty childishness still amuses me. If only there was a way to get your eyeballs from above comment to below my comment without reading what's in between. You seem like a smart guy, though. Keep at it, and I'm sure you'll stumble upon a solution.

J. Farmer said...

@Michael K:

I agree, rare as that is. Still, there are jobs that blacks could fill and did in the 1950s. The culture has changed. How many black plumbers do you see?

True. Skilled trades is a whole other can of worms. I've been hearing since the mid-90's that we don't value trade enough, that too many kids are being shuffled into colleges, that blue collar work is looked down on. I used to preach it myself in my early days on the job. Seems the problem has gotten worse in the intervening 20 years.

J. Farmer said...

@Josephbleau:

Has Farmer finally become a Lost Cause Southern Democrat?

No. The cause of slavery was unjust, and slavery was clearly the primary cause of the war. But I do support secession. I'm a nationalist, and I believe people can "dissolve the political bonds which have connected them with another." Regardless, I'm just describing how central to US history slavery was.

Leora said...

Michael K, of the last 5 plumbers who were sent to my house by the large firm I;ve used for the last 8 years, 3 were black, 1 a polish immigrant and 1 a young white guy. The dispatcher also is probably black.

Anonymous said...

However, astonishing comments like this remind me that even the most apparently rational and informed people are human and fallible, and can hold wack-a-doo ideas that seem entirely contrary to everything else one perceives about that person. Such comments raise questions about how presumably rational minds can convince themselves of the craziest things.

I feel the same way about you RC. And I am definitely pro-Robert Cook.

J. Farmer said...

@Robert Cook:

However, astonishing comments like this remind me that even the most apparently rational and informed people are human and fallible, and can hold wack-a-doo ideas that seem entirely contrary to everything else one perceives about that person. Such comments raise questions about how presumably rational minds can convince themselves of the craziest things.

First, thank you for the kind paragraph that preceded this one. Second, your attitude is not one I am unfamiliar with.

The argument is fairly simple so long as you accept that human being are biological organisms subject to evolutionary change. If so, it is basic ecology. As human beings spready across the globe, they became geographically isolated from one another, and began producing offspring in environments with different selective pressures. This resulted in the phenotypic differences present among humans today.

Black males are more active as infants, more hyperactive as children, begin puberty earlier, have higher levels of testosterone, and disproportionately present behavior problems in school settings, including preschool. It is not much of a leap from this to black representation in professional athletics or violent crime statistics.

Cognitive testing repeatedly demonstrates that on average northeast Eurasians outperform northwest Eurasians, and both outperform sub-Saharan Africans. Despite Western Europe's domination of the globe in the 19th century, look how quickly the Japanese were able to modernize, challenge Russia in the Pacific, and emerge as a world power. Similarly, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Singapore all quickly achieved modernization. The Chinese diaspora in Malaysia and Thailand outperform Malays and Thais. On international tests, Japanese-Americans tend to score closer to Japanese students, and white students to tend score closer to European students. Meanwhile, Haiti is much closer to a sub-Saharan African country than it is to an American country. And sub-Saharan Africa remains far behind advanced nations.

J. Farmer said...

@Leora:

I suspect the idea that blacks are biologically driven to be low status is ridiculous given the high incomes of African immigrants. There's a serious cultural problem which has been fed by a two or three of generations of leftists "helping."

Driven is not the correct word. We are talking about differences in means between groups, not something that is essential about any member of that group. But African immigrants are not a good comparison, because they are self-selected and thus much more likely to be in the upper end than the lower end. Nonetheless, black Americans as a whole are smarter and wealthier than the overwhelming majority of sub-Saharan Africans.

Ralph L said...

the idea that blacks are biologically driven to be low status is ridiculous given the high incomes of African immigrants.

Aren't we getting the cream of the Africans and African-Caribbeans, if we can use that word?

Greg The Class Traitor said...

J. Farmer said...
I am not talking about any of the particulars of the NYT project, I am talking about the notion that slavery as an institution is one of the central dynamics in understanding US history. You can't understand US history if you don't understand the role of slavery in shaping that history. Consequently, racial problems persist, as they have always persisted and will always persist.

You also can't get any honest information from the 1619 Project

Of course an honest look at American history includes slavery, what it doesn't include is anything from the New York Times

Terry Ott said...

Craig said…
"Measurement error. Nothing to see here. The public is still brainwashed. If Biden gets through the debates OK, he will be President.”

I might even agree with you, Craig, but within that “if” statement lies the rub. Huge rub. Rub a dub flub.

Biden is world-class cringe-worthy, even with his prepared Qs & As and notes and teleprompter. If he does not mess up in the debates and comes across as arguably P0TUS-worthy competent it will be as consequential as … well, anything ever.