Althouse: "A week after finding that Trump closed a 10-point gap with Biden to just 3 points, Rasmussen Reports today revealed that Trump has edged up another point as Biden hits a ceiling."

July 23, 2020

"A week after finding that Trump closed a 10-point gap with Biden to just 3 points, Rasmussen Reports today revealed that Trump has edged up another point as Biden hits a ceiling."

"On Wednesday, the race stood at 45% for Trump and 47% for Biden, well within the poll’s margin of error.... Separately, Rasmussen said that Trump has boosted his approval rating to 49%, with 50% of respondents disapproving. What’s more, at this stage of his presidency, former President Barack Obama also had a 49% approval rating and went on to win reelection with 51% of the vote."

Says The Washington Examiner.

125 comments:

Howard said...: Huzzah; 7/23/20, 1:15 PM
Dear corrupt left, go F yourselves said...: We need another Russia BS media-FBI coordinated Maddow BS Schitt show of lies.
What's next?; 7/23/20, 1:15 PM
rehajm said...: It's funny how independents dominate polling this cycle. The implication is usually that these are the squishy middle of the electorate but in reality they are often highly partisan voters unenrolled for open primaries.

For a favorable DNC result, poll independents in MA. GOP can try TX...; 7/23/20, 1:19 PM
West Texas Intermediate Crude said...: Pollsters would have some credibility if they were transparent about their methods. How are they adjusting for the shy voter, essentially all on the President's side? How many calls do they have to make before finding someone bored enough to spend 20 minutes on the phone with a stranger, answering personal questions? How do they adjust for the people, also mostly R's, who purposefully mislead the pollster?
If the polls stay anything like they are now, it will be 60/40, or more, for the President.; 7/23/20, 1:22 PM
Beach Brutus said...: "45% for Trump and 47% for Biden" ---- that's not many undecideds for July -- not many undecideds if this was October.; 7/23/20, 1:22 PM
AllenS said...: One more Trump lawn sign went up in my neck of the woods. The only Biden sign is 30 miles away. How about everyone else, have you seen any Biden lawn signs where you live?; 7/23/20, 1:25 PM
Mike Sylwester said...: Trump will win at least 40 states.; 7/23/20, 1:25 PM
Dave Begley said...: The only way to rationalize a vote for Biden is to think he will be totally controlled by other people telling him what to do. Mentally and physically, he can't do the job.

I'm sticking with my 40 state Trump win.

Headline today speculating that a vaccine will be released in October as an October surprise. That's a bad thing?; 7/23/20, 1:25 PM
Dave Begley said...: And, of course, it is a state-by-state election. Who cares how many votes Joe gets in NY, CA and MA. He could win 70/30 in those states and it makes no difference.; 7/23/20, 1:27 PM
PM said...: Trump closes and John Muir's a racist.
Whatta day.; 7/23/20, 1:27 PM
Mike Sylwester said...: Practically everyone who voted for Trump in 2016 will vote for him again in 2020.

Plus, many people who did not vote for him in 2016 will vote for him in 2020.

Vote harvesting will help the Democrats to compel a lot of votes from people who did not vote in 2016 or who voted for third-party candidates. However, vote harvesting will not suffice to prevent Trump from winning at least 40 states in 2020.; 7/23/20, 1:29 PM
madAsHell said...: "Why aren't I up by 50 points, you might ask!!"; 7/23/20, 1:31 PM
Blackbeard said...: Golly, I wonder if all these riots might be having some effect on the polls?; 7/23/20, 1:31 PM
madAsHell said...: People are still signaling their virtue with Obama/Biden 2008 stickers.

The Biden 2020 stickers just are virtuous enough!!; 7/23/20, 1:33 PM
effinayright said...: At Breitbart:

Revealed: Christopher Steele’s Own Source Debunked ‘Pee Tape’ Claim in FBI Interview
*******************************

"ARM aka President Pee-Pee Tape hardest hit."; 7/23/20, 1:35 PM
The Cracker Emcee Refulgent said...: Meh, it is just one poll. And, to either side's advantage, the race as it exists today probably is grossly different than the race as it will exist in October.

I'd love to see some mayoral and gubernatorial contest polling from some of the saner Blue states and cities. Therein lies the tale.; 7/23/20, 1:37 PM
traditionalguy said...: Realistic poll readers add another 10 points to Trump's poll number to account for Deplorables who want their secret ballot kept secret from the stranger taking the poll, or just ornery enough to lie about it.But it is still close when you take into account the 20 points on forged mail ballots handled by the Post Office and the mailroom in Mexifornia.; 7/23/20, 1:39 PM
doctrev said...: Good God, even Hillary kept her "lead" open until October.

This thing is over, the sudden surge is probably to explain why replacing Biden is so critical before the "convention" lands.; 7/23/20, 1:40 PM
Virgil Hilts said...: If Dems start believing that Trump could win, then don't they have to stop playing weekend at Bernie's and drop Biden at the convention for someone like Michelle Obama?
Biden does seem to be slipping faster and faster. He is going to need someone to blow up his nostrils on a fairly regular basis just to stay partially coherent.; 7/23/20, 1:40 PM
Birkel said...: Trump is going to win all of the states he won in 2016, plus several more.

And I will stay drunk on Leftist Collectivist tears for weeks.
I will try to sober up for Christmas.
But if the supply of tears is large enough, I might lose that particular battle.; 7/23/20, 1:40 PM
gadfly said...: Rasmussen's outlier poll results are far from the norm. Even with Rasmussen included in the RCP national average poll through 7/21, Biden remains up by 8.7 points. Exclude Rasmussen from this average compilation and the lead increases to 9.7 ... Fake news from the Trump-supporting Examiner. Biden has lost only three-tenths of one percentage point.; 7/23/20, 1:41 PM
Anonymous said...: "Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?"

Yeah, lots of fluidity out there.

Anyway you slice it, this election is gonna be *epic*!; 7/23/20, 1:42 PM
Drago said...: This post completely and totally explains why LLR-lefty Chuck felt compelled to jump onto Althouse today to push his now transparent far left/dem/marxist talking points.

It's panic time in the Biden basement. It's possible Biden will not last into September.

Thus, its panic time at Antifa Chuck's.; 7/23/20, 1:43 PM
Churchy LaFemme: said...: "A week after finding that Trump closed a 10-point gap with Biden to just 3 points, Rasmussen Reports today revealed that Trump has edged up another point as Biden hits a ceiling."

The basement ceiling.; 7/23/20, 1:44 PM
jpg said...: 'Bout time for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to strike with another crash the markets speech. What's it been, six weeks sine his last one?; 7/23/20, 1:50 PM
DanTheMan said...: Have we already forgotten how completely wrong the polls were last time?; 7/23/20, 1:55 PM
daskol said...: Closing and opening gaps of 10 points suggest a sampling problem rather than flighty public opinion.; 7/23/20, 1:56 PM
Skeptical Voter said...: Only poll that counts is the one on election day. You'll have the folks who are quietly biding their time, and keeping their heads low and mouth shut--waiting to vote for Trump.

On the other hand you'll have folks who genuinely loathe Trump, either for good reason, or because the New York Times and Nancy Pelosi tell them to--and they are waiting to vote for Biden or at least "Not Trump".

Heck I'll admit that I voted "Not Hillary" in 2016---and I wasn't alone. Some of those who voted "Not Hillary" have come to like what the Orange Man Bad has actually done.

We'll see how it all shakes out.; 7/23/20, 1:56 PM
Gahrie said...: So despite three and a half years of constant attacks by the MSM and popular culture in support of the Democrats, Trump is exactly as popular as Obama was at this point in his presidency after the MSM and popular culture fellated him for three and a half years.; 7/23/20, 2:01 PM
Tommy Duncan said...: The BLM/Antifa base has been pushing Biden to the far left. He has already provided Trump with the quotes that position him with the fringe of the Democrat party. Trump's advertisements will make certain that center-left voters realize that Biden does not represent them. The polls will only move in one direction now.

Even worse for Biden is the fact he can't campaign his way back toward the middle. Once he's been fully exposed as having caved to the radical left there is no way to swing back. He has to pander to the far left to get through the DNC convention without a repeat of the 1968 Democrat convention. He's stuck with the BLM albatross around his neck. Worst of all for Biden, he is no longer intellectually capable of formulating palatable bull shit to cover his tracks.

If I were Trump I'd insist that Joe Biden deliver his own messages. When the media cover for Biden, Trump should insist that Biden articulate the message himself.; 7/23/20, 2:02 PM
bagoh20 said...: They said all it took to beat Trump was for the Democrats to not go insane. That was an unrealistically high goal for them.; 7/23/20, 2:03 PM
Lucid-Ideas said...: Polls. Haven't these people figured out that the half of the country that doesn't answer them anyway won't answer them truthfully if they do? No. They haven't.; 7/23/20, 2:04 PM
Western Civ is worth defending said...: I hear footsteps...; 7/23/20, 2:07 PM
Western Civ is worth defending said...: I hear footsteps...; 7/23/20, 2:08 PM
Leland said...: Texas is passing the peak in the post protest coronavirus spike, while at the same time not really spiking the death count and especially nothing close to New York state or other blue states in the northeast. Meanwhile; California has handed off its beer and is ready to show Cuomo how its done. Biden went against counsel and came out in public.

Overall, Trump's opponents have made it a good week for Trump, but I give credit to Trump for throwing out Chinese spies.; 7/23/20, 2:08 PM
Inga said...: Exciting news, almost as exciting as Madison’s anti mask rally today.; 7/23/20, 2:24 PM
tim maguire said...: I think it's cute the way every poll talks about it's results as though that's reality and we all have to live with t. Never mind that there is eroding trust in polls and that every other poll still has Biden leading by around 10 points, just like they have for months.; 7/23/20, 2:28 PM
TickTock said...: Yabba Dabba Doo!; 7/23/20, 2:34 PM
Kevin said...: Will Biden and his supporters be constantly asked why he's falling so fast and so far in the polls?

Because the press couldn't stop asking Trump and his people every chance they got.; 7/23/20, 2:44 PM
Mattman26 said...: So I know Rasmussen tends to run a bit more pro-Republican, but whether that should call into question its results or the other guys' is an open question.

Rasmussen screens for likely voters, and I'm pretty sure the other big pollsters, for whatever reason, traditionally poll all adults or all registered voters (until closer to election day), which for sure favors Dems; and I think it's widely accepted that likely voter screens are better predictors of election-day voting.; 7/23/20, 2:47 PM
Susan said...: This is what happens when you encourage your children to have their own opinions.

At some point they will start thinking for themselves and, before you know it, they won't swallow the codswallop that the MSM provides and telling people that you are the party of "No Malarkey" will not suffice.; 7/23/20, 2:48 PM
Vance said...: Meh. Polls are just politics at this point. I don't believe the ones saying only dung beetles support Trump while everyone else wants Mao, Stalin, and Lucifer as president instead, and I don't believe this one either.

I mean, it's not bad news, certainly, but I'm not ready to throw a party of invincibility yet.; 7/23/20, 2:50 PM
Nonapod said...: I still don't trust the polls in the slightest, I don't care what they say. There's just too many reasons for people not to want to talk to pollsters or not take the time to, too many reasons for doubt in their methods, too many reasons for the pollsters themselves to massage the numbers with oversampling one group and undersampling another, and too many things that could happen between now and election day.; 7/23/20, 2:57 PM
Ambrose said...: Watch for the "Trump is a Racist" deluge coming in response to these numbers.; 7/23/20, 2:58 PM
MikeR said...: Sigh. Until I see other polls follow, I will assume that Rasmussen is not going to be that reliable by itself. And I don't know what's happened to reverse Biden's lead.; 7/23/20, 3:00 PM
rcocean said...: Do your realize why need to keep talking about polling data? Its because morons won't for vote for someone they think is going to lose. that's how stupid the American Public is. That's why the Press keeps giving us anti-Trump polls that were wrong in 2016 and are probably wrong in 2020.; 7/23/20, 3:01 PM
wendybar said...: Keep on praising the rioters!!!; 7/23/20, 3:02 PM
JPS said...: I just can't see Biden winning. Trump, flaws and all, is out there saying what's on his mind. He is a huge personality and he dominates the political conversation.

Biden is saying very little, relatively. He speaks in either carefully scripted banalities or in off-the-cuff word salads that leave Republicans laughing, Democrats saying, Oh yeah? What about Trump? and the uncommitted saying, What the f-?

The Democrats are trying to beat Trump with "Put us back in charge." No one's really making a positive case for Biden as chief executive, least of all Biden. I don't see it working.; 7/23/20, 3:10 PM
Nonapod said...: One more Trump lawn sign went up in my neck of the woods. The only Biden sign is 30 miles away. How about everyone else, have you seen any Biden lawn signs where you live?

I live in a fairly rural area in upstate NY that's fairly conservative. I've exactly seen 1 Biden lawn sign and probably a dozen or so Trump signs. I know the Biden sign couple, they're lifelong Dems. Generally overall it sems like I've seen fewer political signs this presidential election season than previous ones, but it coule be my imagination.; 7/23/20, 3:19 PM
Birkel said...: Is Trump's lead outside the margin of fraud?

https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politics/stephen-green/2020/07/23/ozzie-myers-corrupt-former-abscam-congressman-busted-for-vote-fraud-n675353

Democratics do plan to cheat.; 7/23/20, 3:20 PM
MadisonMan said...: Poll numbers for Biden have to collapse so the Democratic Powers-that-be narrative arc can be "We replaced him because he wasn't popular"; 7/23/20, 3:22 PM
Francisco D said...: madAsHell said...People are still signaling their virtue with Obama/Biden 2008 stickers.

And here I thought they were signaling their frugality by driving 12 year old cars. Hopefully, those cars are Toyotas or Hondas because most of the others don't last that long. As Scotty Kilmer says, "They become endless money pits."; 7/23/20, 3:23 PM
Jim at said...: But, but I was assured by the very smartest minds on this blog that the race was over.
That Trump was D-U-N done.

Maybe those simpletons aren't half as smart as they think they are.; 7/23/20, 3:25 PM
rehajm said...: At RCP, a Biden +1 in Texas doesn't pass the sniff test. Dug into that Quinnipiac poll I couldn't find the political assumptions - D+?.

Waaay doesn't pass the sniff test...; 7/23/20, 3:26 PM
gerry said...: Have we already forgotten how completely wrong the polls were last time?

Rasmussen was within a point of the election in 2016.; 7/23/20, 3:26 PM
NotWhoIUsedtoBe said...: Rasmussen... not the most reliable of the polls.

Last election was 50/50. It could have gone the other way just as easily. This one is the same. If you can't believe that the other guy could win you are living in an echo chamber.; 7/23/20, 3:29 PM
Peaceful warrior said...: I think Rasmussen doesn't necessarily favor Republicans but is still overly reliant on landlines by current practices within the polling industry. Therefore, their polls skew older.; 7/23/20, 3:30 PM
Sam L. said...: Cooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooool!!; 7/23/20, 3:31 PM
Drago said...: Inga the Mindreading Conspiracy Theorist: "Exciting news, almost as exciting as Madison’s anti mask rally today."

Was it as exciting as the news this week that the russia collusion hoax "primary sub source" (Igor Danchenko) is the long time Brookings Institute associate, pal, joint presenter and former student of the ukraine hoax impeachment star Fiona Hill?

Hill, of course, is also a long time Soros Open Society alumni.........

"Unexpectedly".

No wonder Schiff-ty Schiff kept the relationships between hoaxer Vindman, fake whistleblower Eric Ciaramella, Danchenko, Hill and all of Schiff-ty Schiff's staffers secret for so long.; 7/23/20, 3:32 PM
Drago said...: JPS: "I just can't see Biden winning."

LLR-lefty Chuck's marxist allies will continue pushing for no-ID verification-Mail in voting in key states in order to "Al Franken" biden across the finish line.; 7/23/20, 3:33 PM
StephenFearby said...: The Presidential election result could well depend on how many people dislike being told they have to be woke compared to the number of voters who enthusiastically embrace wokeness.

That's not the only variable, of course. When I was on Wall Street, I used to evaluate (using Computstat data) which stocks out of thousands merited further scrutiny from the results of a 14-variable factor analysis program of my own design. Called it the Multi-Factor F...ker.

The results depended on the variables selected and the weights assigned to each variable.

In the upcoming Presidential Election, stupid voters will assign the wrong weights.; 7/23/20, 3:34 PM
Drago said...: Mattman26: "So I know Rasmussen tends to run a bit more pro-Republican...."

The extent of Rasmussen's "pro-Republican"-ism boils down to his refusal to only poll 24% or 25% republicans in his samples like all of gadfly's favorite moron lefty pollsters who are simply generating disinformation ops polls to attempt to demoralize Trump voters.

Nothing more, nothing less.

The other polls are routinely polling 40% or more dems with only 25% republicans while also over-sampling CA and NY. This is often in addition to using "Adults" or "registered voters" instead of "likely voters".

But other than that, gadfly's "hillary has a 98% probability to win"/"Trump has no path to 270" crew is doing just "fine"......; 7/23/20, 3:37 PM
Jupiter said...: "Even worse for Biden is the fact he can't campaign his way back toward the middle. Once he's been fully exposed as having caved to the radical left there is no way to swing back."

He didn't just cave, he abased himself. There's no coming back from abasement.; 7/23/20, 3:39 PM
Jersey Fled said...: One Biden lawn sign in my neighborhood and zero Trump signs. But given my theory that Trump voters think it's none of your business who they are voting for, while Democrats want to screan it in your ear whether you want to hear it or not, I take this as a good sign for Trump.; 7/23/20, 3:40 PM
Ken B said...: That’s without the lying to pollsters effect.; 7/23/20, 3:41 PM
Francisco D said...: JPS said...I just can't see Biden winning.

Right now, Biden is just the "generic Democrat." Once he selects a VP running mate, he will lose votes because it will be an AA woman. (I mean AA both ways).

That is why the "Trumps is a racist" is being played so heavily. They need to fire up the morons who believe that bullshit.

Their desperation is obvious. They are throwing everything at the wall in order to see what sticks. Hell, they have even unleashed the insane Chuckles the Clown again. I guess ARM was not up to the job and Howard is too busy thinking up phallic imagery.; 7/23/20, 3:44 PM
lgv said...: We found out how bad the polls were during the last election cycle. I have even less confidence now than ever before. It't not even about the results of the poll (e.g. under-polling of Trump supporters, but that polls are just completely worthless. We just keep doing them and reporting them because it is all we got and its always been the way. Polling companies aren't going to announce, "We suck. We are closing our doors."; 7/23/20, 3:51 PM
n.n said...: because morons won't for vote for someone they think is going to lose

It's expert opinion, statistics, charts, and stuff, the holy grail of secular religion, so it must be true. Now, kneel before the one you serve. You're going to get...; 7/23/20, 4:06 PM
Matthew Heintz said...: Trump wins 40 states minimum. That's how I read every poll.; 7/23/20, 4:06 PM
Ingachuck'stoothlessARM said...: AllenS said...
have you seen any Biden lawn signs where you live?

do "VACANCY" signs count?; 7/23/20, 4:12 PM
rhhardin said...: Nurses breathed air into Joe Biden's nostrils, according to Biden.

He's channeling Genesis, remembering it as happening to him.

When there was as yet no shrub of the field upon earth, and as yet no grasses of the field had sprouted, because Yahweh had not sent rain upon the earth, and there was no man to till the soil, but a flow welled up from the ground and watered the whole surface of the earth, then Yahweh molded Adam from the earth's dust (adamah), and blew into the nostrils the breath of life, and Adam became a living being.; 7/23/20, 4:31 PM
Static Ping said...: Polls in July typically do not mean much of anything.

One point changes in polls never mean anything at any time ever.

Polls of adults with 50% Democrats (or Republicans) are useless beyond words.; 7/23/20, 4:41 PM
Gk1 said...: Living in NorCal and I don't think I have seen one single Biden poster or bumpersticker but more than a few Trump bumper stickers on oversized Ford trucks with a flag for good measure. I live in the rural part of the Bay area. That really doesn't mean much as I saw the same thing in 2012 & 2016 and Obama and Hillary carried the state handily even though I saw very few overt signs of support.

The problem that I had with the "Biden up by 10" polls was the Texas polling saying Slow Joe was up +1. That's just silly. A gun grabbing, taxaholic who is fatuously open immigration, is not going to win Texas much less bother to campaign there. They are welcome to put money down a sinkhole like Hillary did while losing Minnesota or New Mexico this time. They still haven't mastered this whole electoral college thing, have they?; 7/23/20, 4:51 PM
exiledonmainstreet, green-eyed devil said...: AllenS said...
One more Trump lawn sign went up in my neck of the woods."

When I see American flags or "Back the Blue" signs in yards in Milwaukee County, I assume the owners are Trump voters. They won't put Trump signs in their yards because there are too many hateful, intolerant leftists around who might key their cars or vandalize their homes.

Rainbow flags and "Hate Has No Home Here" mean hateful, intolerant leftists live there. Oh, and of course, Biden signs (or "I'm voting for the senile guy" signs) can be placed on lawns because the leftists know the conservatives will leave them alone.; 7/23/20, 4:52 PM
exiledonmainstreet, green-eyed devil said...: I don't trust the polls one way or the other.; 7/23/20, 4:53 PM
DavidUW said...: Zero Biden signs. Several BLM signs.

Shockingly in the Bay Area, and inviting slashed tires, more than zero trump bumper stickers.; 7/23/20, 5:06 PM
Ingachuck'stoothlessARM said...: Sloe Joe Fizzle

Ingredients
2 oz. sloe joe
1/2 oz. donepezil
1 tsp. Aricept
2 oz. HairClub soda
Strain thru a small, chilled Foley catheter
Serve with hindered ICE with a chilled cocktail waitress.
Shame well!; 7/23/20, 5:12 PM
Tommy Duncan said...: "That is why the "Trumps is a racist" is being played so heavily. They need to fire up the morons who believe that bullshit."

They play the "Trump is a racist" card because that's all they have. Their BLM platform is a non-starter. They've wrapped up the stupid/hater vote, and in so doing have alienated everyone else.; 7/23/20, 5:19 PM
Static Ping said...: Lawn signs don't mean much of anything. Unless you are running for a municipal post, they exist merely to make donors happy, to signal their virtue as you will. However, they sometimes make an interesting study.

In three nearby towns the difference is quite stark. In the town that has the voting habits of Vermont, there are a few Biden signs and lots and lots of BLM signs of various types ranging from the "SILENCE IS VIOLENCE" version to the vapid progressive creed versions that end with the "SCIENCE IS REAL" and "WATER IS LIFE" for some reason. One house has about a dozen of the BLM signs, filling up the windows. I'm guessing the inhabitants are not the happiest. There is also the sign that was put right in front of a bush, which has since been half swallowed by said bush with the sign slowly disappearing into oblivion. In the bordering town, which is probably more 60/40 Dem, there are no Biden signs and a handful of BLM signs, but not really enough that you would notice. One house has both a BLM sign a "POLICE LIVES MATTERS" sign, which proves that non-monolithic voters still exist. In the other town, which is probably closer to parity and probably leans R in the area I frequent, there are no Biden signs or BLM signs at all, though there are a few for the local house races supporting the D.

My hypothesis is recent events have really riled up the progressives to ridiculous lengths but have had significantly less impact on everyone else, at least as far as their lawns go.; 7/23/20, 5:29 PM
Static Ping said...: Also, there are a couple of "ANY FUNCTIONING ADULT 2020" signs present, which apparently has replaced SMOD as the candidate of choice in certain circles.

There are also some paradoxical arrangements of "WE ARE ALL IN THIS TOGETHER" signs next to BLM signs. The more extreme example is the "THANK YOU FIRST RESPONDERS" signs with a police logo on it next to the BLM signs. The BLM motte-and-baily is strong.; 7/23/20, 5:33 PM
gilbar said...: Allen asked ...
How about everyone else, have you seen any Biden lawn signs where you live?

saw my FIRST jo biden sign in northeast iowa late last week (and, it was here in West Union). I don't see many Trump signs in town; but it seems like most farms have Trump flags (actually, i'm sure it's less than 25%). They are LITERALLY ALL AROUND UP HERE
Like i say, i never saw a single biden sign until last week; and it is STILL the only one

The Fayette county fair started this week, and the (little) jo biden sign is on the way to the fairgrounds. Since the fair is rolling (Stockcar racing last night, School Bus races tonight); you'd think that the Iowa Democratic party would be doing EVERYTHING they can to get signs up; 7/23/20, 5:39 PM
Banjo said...: Look, pollsters have to make a living. They know it's bullshit, but they have to put food on the table.; 7/23/20, 5:39 PM
Drago said...: rehajm: "At RCP, a Biden +1 in Texas doesn't pass the sniff test. Dug into that Quinnipiac poll I couldn't find the political assumptions - D+?."

In July of 1988 gallup had Dukakis up by 10%......in Texas....the adopted and long time home state of HW Bush........; 7/23/20, 5:40 PM
Drago said...: "Even worse for Biden is the fact he can't campaign his way back toward the middle. Once he's been fully exposed as having caved to the radical left there is no way to swing back."

Jupiter: "He didn't just cave, he abased himself. There's no coming back from abasement."

In Biden's defense, though he has completely and utterly abased himself, he has abased himself only half as much as LLR-lefty Chuck and the Poor Man's LLR-lefty Chuck-gadfly.; 7/23/20, 5:42 PM
Susan said...: Which candidate is mostly likely to outlaw letting parents decide whether to allow children to have chocolate sprinkles on their toast?

Unlike 2016, there are Trump banners and signs everywhere you look in the rural area where I live. I haven't seen a single new Biden sign although there are some Obama/Biden bumper stickers from back in the day.; 7/23/20, 5:43 PM
Sprezzatura said...: Presumably I’ll see less begging for donations from DJT. There have been several every day for weeks.

Maybe they’ve been more desperate as low polling made some donors hold back.

Don’t worry cons, send yur money to DJT.

BTW, what happened to being self-funded to avoid owing debts to swamp-money influences? It’s like the federal debt issue?; 7/23/20, 5:55 PM
Kai Akker said...: ---Rasmussen's outlier poll results are far from the norm. Even with Rasmussen included in the RCP national average poll through 7/21, Biden remains up by 8.7 points. Exclude Rasmussen from this average compilation and the lead increases to 9.7 ... Fake news from the Trump-supporting Examiner. Biden has lost only three-tenths of one percentage point. [Gadfly]

Except Trump has 10% more who won't talk to the polltakers. And 10% or more of the Biden "support" are people speaking bravely on the phone, who know in their heart of hearts there is no way they can put that demented man in the White House to lead this country.

Your .03 is great, though!; 7/23/20, 6:05 PM
Ken B said...: Look at the reaction from people like the house democrats, or Anne Applebaum, or Kristof to Portland. In short: the riots are nothing, and are good anyway.

Have the Democrats decided Portland is the hill to die on?

It looks like that might be the case. And some Democrats are unhappy https://twitter.com/BretWeinstein/status/1286406672932433920; 7/23/20, 6:13 PM
bagoh20 said...: Who here thinks there will ever be a poll that overestimates Trump's strength? Whatever he wins by, it will be "unexpected".; 7/23/20, 6:25 PM
narciso said...: applebaum is a good historian, applying those lessons to the current day not so much; 7/23/20, 6:25 PM
Dear corrupt left, go F yourselves said...: Biden didn't win the nomination just yet. Isn't that odd?

also - he hasn't selected his running mate yet - isn't that odd?

When will he roll out Hillary?; 7/23/20, 6:42 PM
Michael K said...: anjo said...
Look, pollsters have to make a living. They know it's bullshit, but they have to put food on the table.

And no pollster is going to sell a poll to Democrats that shows Trump even close.; 7/23/20, 6:46 PM
PB said...: The Dems will become even more crazed and angry now. If that's possible.; 7/23/20, 6:56 PM
Interested Bystander said...: In my deeply left part of the world I don’t recall ever seeing a Republican sign for president. We’re about 89-90% Democrat here sadly.; 7/23/20, 6:59 PM
Dear corrupt left, go F yourselves said...: Antifa brownshirts for Biden!; 7/23/20, 6:59 PM
Drago said...: anti-de Sitter space: "Presumably I’ll see less begging for donations from DJT. There have been several every day for weeks."

Breaking news....in a heretofore unheard of and unprecedented action, a Presidential Campaign is attempting to aggressively raise campaign funds.

Democrats already hinting at possible impeachment hearings.; 7/23/20, 7:10 PM
minnesota farm guy said...: Anecdotal sign survey on the way to the skeet field. Trump and Republicans 10, Biden 0. All prior Trump supporters had signs out today with a few new guys. Some Republican is working in the Winona MN area.; 7/23/20, 7:11 PM
Mike said...: Rasmussen is off 14 points from everybody else on approval rating. 7 points on the election. After their disastrous performance in 2018, I don't trust them anymore.; 7/23/20, 7:25 PM
Uniblogger said...: Put a Trump sign in your yard and get tire tracks as it is knocked down.
Put a Trump bumper sticker on your car and get it keyed or torched.
Put a MAGA hat on and get blindsided with a baseball bat.
…and I wonder why people won’t respond to Telephone polls?; 7/23/20, 7:31 PM
Stu Grimshaw said...: Signs in July, before the convention, are never a good indicator of enthusiasm. The few Biden signs are mostly party regulars. Once Biden has a running mate and is official then we’ll see if there’s any real enthusiasm.

If we’re still seeing 10 to 1 Trump to Biden signs in October then I’ll believe. Until then it’s wishful thinking.; 7/23/20, 7:53 PM
Paul said...: Wait till Buffoon Biden actually leaves his basement and, you know, speaks his mind without a teleprompter..... it's gonna be downhill all the way for Slow Joe.; 7/23/20, 8:12 PM
CapitalistRoader said...: Rasmussen polled Hillary up 2 points in the week before the election. She won the popular vote by 1.9%. Real Clear Politics' average was Clinton +3.3 in the week before so Rasmussen was the most accurate of the bunch.; 7/23/20, 8:30 PM
DanTheMan said...: >>Rasmussen was within a point of the election in 2016.

Rasmussen predicted a Hillary win. Trump won. Other than that they were right on.

They were within 1% on the completely irrelevant popular vote.; 7/23/20, 8:34 PM
Sydney said...: Re: lawn signs.
My next door neighbor has two Biden signs in her yard. I think she is active in the teacher’s union. The neighbor across the street has an obnoxiously huge Biden sign that faces my driveway and says “Truth over lies.” I have to look at it every time I leave my house. And every time I look at, I think of that phrase “lying dog faced pony soldier.” The neighbor on the other side, removed by one house has a “hate has no home here” sign and a “love matters most” sign. The family in the house between ours and that one is Black. They don’t put political signs in their yard. I have been trying to figure out why I am so annoyed by those hate has no home here signs. I judge the people who have them to be hypocrites. Not sure why I do, but I do.; 7/23/20, 8:34 PM
madAsHell said...: I've exactly seen 1 Biden lawn sign

I think I've said before, but......I'm in the Soviet of Seattle, and there are exactly NO, NADA, ZIPPO, ZILCH bumper stickers for anyone.

The Spinal Tap of Stupid* Jay Inslee is up for re-election, but you wouldn't know that from the newspapers. You must leave the Seattle bubble before you realize there's an election.

*Spinal Tap of Stupid = he can turn the stupid up to 11.

Yeah, yeah....I know that's probably the third time I've used that analogy, but that fucker needs to be vilified. He was laundering state Unemployment Insurance through Nigeria to fund his presidential campaign.

Slow Joe.
Crooked Hillary.
Spinal Tap Stupid Inslee.; 7/23/20, 8:39 PM
DanTheMan said...: >>Who here thinks there will ever be a poll that overestimates Trump's strength? Whatever he wins by, it will be "unexpected".

Polls don't measure fraud. This election will be determined by non-existent voters, who vote very heavily in favor of Democrats.

Whoever Joe picks as his running mate is very likely president a year or so from now.; 7/23/20, 8:40 PM
Stu Grimshaw said...: An interesting ( to me) observation on those “these things I believe” laundry list signs that Static Ping mentioned above (Black Lives Matter, Love is Love, Science!, etc). I find they are clustered within neighborhoods. The way these signs are distributed points more to peer pressure than to actual conviction.

I’ve done a lot of walking since the lockdowns started and gotten a good feel for the houses and their inhabitants. Plus my wife fills in the blanks for me. I’ll walk past houses with lefty cause bumper stickers on the cars and see no signs in the yard. A few blocks down and I’ll walk through a section in which every yard has that stupid sign. A lot of these clustered “sign” houses also have kids toys and play sets in their yards. My guess? There’s a Queen Bee mom in one of these houses who has decided that in order to belong you must have one of these signs.; 7/23/20, 8:40 PM
CapitalistRoader said...: They were within 1% on the completely irrelevant popular vote.

They were within one-tenth of 1% of the completely irrelevant popular vote. But then again, all national polls for the presidency are by design irrelevant although they make for some revenue-generating headlines.; 7/23/20, 9:13 PM
boatbuilder said...: The Washington Examiner poll says what I want to believe. Other polls say what I don't want to believe.

They are polls of a few thousand people.

And yet, the television ratings of millions showing that Fox and Tucker Carlson are twice as popular as whatever or whoever (whomever? Sounds pretentious) MSNBC or CNN puts up are meaningless.

The News is fake.; 7/23/20, 9:33 PM
madAsHell said...: There’s a Queen Bee mom in one of these houses who has decided that in order to belong you must have one of these signs.

Hey, man!! You really can't use the house brand!! You really need to use the Reynold's Wrap. I always use a two-ply arrangement with a 3mm resonant gap between each layer of the cap.; 7/23/20, 9:35 PM
gilbar said...: Isn't the fact that Trump 'won' the election, PROOF that democracy is a failed concept?
Isn't the fact the President Trump will 'win' reelection, Confirmation of that Proof?

Our Only Option, is to follow the Chucks and George Wills and embrace Socialism
Democracy does not pick the people we want; therefore it is a fallacy
LONG LIVE SOVIET THOUGHT!! LONG LIVE SOVIET CONTROL!!! LONG LIVE BIG BROTHER!!!; 7/23/20, 9:45 PM
Bunkypotatohead said...: Maybe the pollsters are oversampling the deceased. They almost always vote for the Dem.; 7/23/20, 9:53 PM
n.n said...: That's a great opening to a Babylon Bee satirical essay.; 7/23/20, 10:01 PM
Bilwick said...: Asked to comment on this, Sen. Biden blew a string of saliva bubbles, began to recite Rudyard Kipling's inspirational poem "If" but kept getting the words confused with the lyrics to the theme song "The Facts of Life," from the 1970s/1980s sitcom of the same name. Then he said, "Damn, wasn't that Tootie cute?" and did a vaudeville glide off the podium. The press immediately wrote how brilliantly Biden had answered the question, while Stephen Colbert and Seth Meyers did monologues mocking Trump while never mentioning Biden's bizarre performance.; 7/23/20, 10:14 PM
MD Greene said...: I haven't participated in a poll for at least 10 years, and I don't think I'm the only one.

Did we learn nothing from 2016?; 7/23/20, 10:16 PM
The Cracker Emcee Refulgent said...: “The Spinal Tap of Stupid* Jay Inslee is up for re-election, but you wouldn't know that from the newspapers. You must leave the Seattle bubble before you realize there's an election.”

Culp doesn’t stand a snowball’s chance in this sadly declining state, but I’ve never seen so many signs for any candidate in the rural areas as I’ve seen for him. I’ve only seen one Biden sign anywhere and they took it down about a week ago. Perhaps they realized “I’m for Senile” didn’t reflect well on their judgement.; 7/23/20, 10:25 PM
rightguy said...: Rasmussen is the only poll that I know of that doesn't do what the dems tell them to do. Right now, as in 2016, the pollsters are being told to flood the zone and make it look like Hidin' Biden is way ahead. I've seen this before more than once and it is total BS. The dem leadership has internal (accurate) polls that reflect more what Rasmussen reports. Currently, Rasmussen has Trump/Biden at 49/49% approval. The dem leadership is (and should be) concerned.; 7/23/20, 10:38 PM
Tyrone Slothrop said...: This thread has decided me. I'm putting up a 20-foot flagpole and flying a Trump flag. Since Democrats are angry toddlers who can only respond to disagreement with destruction and violence, I will have two security cameras trained on it.; 7/23/20, 10:56 PM
Bay Area Guy said...: Biden and the Democrat Party are an absolute disgrace. A vote for senile buffoon Biden is a vote for anarchy, violence and socialism.

Choose wisely....and Have a Good Day!; 7/23/20, 11:37 PM
mikee said...: Trump can win New York if he campaigns aggressively against Cuomo's and DeBlasio's pandemic activities. Trump in a landslide. Biden - or whoever takes over - is this year's Mondale.; 7/24/20, 8:25 AM
Nichevo said...: mikee said...
Trump can win New York if he campaigns aggressively against Cuomo's and DeBlasio's pandemic activities. Trump in a landslide. Biden - or whoever takes over - is this year's Mondale.

Possibly he can. If resources are available they are worth spending. This has follow-on effects; assuming R resource superiority, it sucks D resources out of battlefield states.

It also helps R-NY candidates across the board, for Congress now, and in the future for Mayor and Governor. Warren Wuhan Wilhelm Jr and Fredo Corleone Cuomo (or is Andrew Sonny) will be easier to defeat in the wake of some actual political bloodletting now.; 7/24/20, 9:55 AM
Sam L. said...: How many Trump voters will talk to a pollster? And not lie to them? All I can say is nobody asks me, and I'm not volunteering to do so.; 7/24/20, 9:58 AM
hstad said...: AA - did I miss your reporting on this regarding Wisconsin?

"...This Sunday, one of the only pollsters [Trafalgar Group] to predict a Trump win in 2016 reports that President Trump is up on Biden in Wisconsin - a Democratic state."; 7/24/20, 6:00 PM
ken in tx said...: Only one Biden yard sign in my Austin, TX neighborhood. We are usually covered over in Democrat signs. No Trump signs of course. Austin is not Trump friendly. A woman wrote in a magazine that she saw a Trump sticker on a pick up on I-35, and it made her feel unsafe. She was a NYC refugee to Austin. I tell people I believe in the secret ballot, if asked. Otherwise, I would feel unsafe here.; 7/24/20, 9:28 PM
Kirk Parker said...: Tyrone,

Two cameras and a Ma Deuce, right?; 7/25/20, 10:52 AM