June 5, 2020

I think they're hoping!

I'm seeing "Why the Shockingly Good Jobs Report Might Be Bad News" (New York Magazine).

What godawful talking points did they come up with?

[J]ob growth was wholly attributable to temporarily sidelined workers returning to their old jobs.... But the number of Americans who were outright fired last month — as opposed to being furloughed — is actually 295,000 higher than in April, with 2.3 million workers suffering permanent job losses....

Last month, personal income in the U.S. actually rose by a record high of 10.5 percent, thanks entirely to massive government transfers. But enhanced unemployment benefits are set to expire in July.... [I]t is possible that the administration’s supply-siders will gain the upper hand, and opposition to further relief measures will harden....

104 comments:

Nonapod said...

Noted economic nincompoop Paul Krugman is spinning conspiracy theories that Trump "got to" the BLS.

Tyrone Slothrop said...

Good news for DJT is bad news for NYT. SMH.

DanTheMan said...

Don't you people recognize a Russian plot when you see one?

BADuBois said...

They really, really, really hate America, don't they.

Not a particularly winning platform for November, eh?

hstad said...

Not surprised that everything President Trump says or does is subject to ridicule. I lived in Florida and experienced several Hurricanes (like the article mentions) and yes the economy came back quickly. Moreover, construction further juiced Florida's economy after each hurricane. Any additional boost now coming from D.C. to further juice the economy will help us - and President Trump's chances come November.

I just think anyone who attacks President Trump have lost all of their creditability - if they had any. We are way past 'the boy cried wolf' when it comes to the 'Orange Man Bad' crowd.

Valentine Smith said...

Is that kiddie porn Krugman you’re talking about?

Chris of Rights said...

I'm impressed with the media's continued ability to spin a narrative, but I think this one is out of reach.

Now, it could be an outlier. It could be that the economic chaos has caused the BLS surveys and methods to be unreliable. It could be that next month we'll see 17%. I don't know. I doubt it, but it is possible. Almost anything is possible.

However, this report is remarkably good news. There's just no other way to spin it. Trying to isn't going to fool anyone who doesn't already want to be fooled.

D.D. Driver said...

The big astrix for me is that employers who received Paycheck Protection money are required to keep workers on the payroll for 2 months to receive the full benefit of the subsidy. In effect, the U.S. taxpayers have been paying these workers. When we stop, will their employers still have need for them? For many employers will run out at the end of June/early July. What happens then? It's a big unknown.

NorthOfTheOneOhOne said...

Nonapod said...

Noted economic nincompoop Paul Krugman is spinning conspiracy theories that Trump "got to" the BLS.

Per Insty: Krugman got his ass handed to him by the Obama appointed head of the BLS over that allegation.

Tomcc said...

I've been pondering this question: the federal stimulus package provides an additional $600 per week on top of one's regular benefit. That's quite a bit of "walking around money". What's the overall effect of that additional income on the demonstrations? I suspect it is giving demonstrators more mobility and increasing the duration of the protests.
(So, yeah, there's a downside.)

JohnAnnArbor said...

Of course they're hoping.

It's sick. People are hurting.

bagoh20 said...

The extra $600 a week for unemployment was dumb, counterproductive, and frankly, immoral.

I know people who could and should be working, but will not until that ends, which means we are paying people specifically not to contribute to their community and nation. We are practically forcing sloth on people. If there is stimulus to be paid, I like it going directly to the people rather than to government projects or government employees and the graft inherent in those, but if we are going to pay people more than they usually make, it should go to people working, not those sitting on their asses. Unemployment should never pay more the working. That's so incredibly obvious that only government would have a hard time understanding it. People were forced to stay home which reduced their living expenses, and the unemployed didn't have the commuting expenses of the working people who held it all together while they were gone.

Richard said...

I swore,and cowered from the inflation I was sure would follow that "shovel-ready" debt and deficit ditch. Where is the inflation now? How is it possible a blowout hasn't happened yet? Obviously I don't get it. Am I Krugman stupid? I am really worried. Help!

Gahrie said...

Noted economic nincompoop Paul Krugman is spinning conspiracy theories that Trump "got to" the BLS.

Even better. Someone dug up a tweet where he blasted people suggesting that the BLS was cooking numbers under Obama.

bagoh20 said...

Oh, and they spelled "hopping" wrong. As in hopping mad that Americans might do so well.

What a group. They practically salivated at the higher death and infection numbers without any skepticism, and even got angry at the suggestion. Now they are angry that those who survived might recover, succeed, and be happy. What a bunch of hideous people. I've gone from disagreement to disgust, to hate for many of my fellow Americans. An evil level of partisanship. Yet, still I can smile and celebrate the rest of you.
.

TreeJoe said...

So a forced government shutdown with massive furlough/layoffs should, upon re-opening and re-hiring, come with a strong incentive to not work?

I went out to eat last night with my wife for the first time in 3 months. Open conversation at the restaurant and by local owners about:

1. Many places won't hire back staff who are paid mostly on tips but would lose $1k a week in unemployment benefits until they can FULLY re-open.

2. Many workers, including those speaking to us, talked about getting a 2 month paid vacation by the government.

3. Owners talking about how they would rather work 3 of their employees jobs right now to keep the business going than hire back 2 people who don't want to return yet for fear of a"2nd wave" and losing and not regaining benefits.

....

I think this is bad news because Coronavirus and the Protests/Riots were the first things that actually hurt Trump politically in 3 years. To be fair he actually really did not handle the protests/riots well (IMHO).

Jersey Fled said...

Sooo...

Temporarily laid off workers returning to work is a bad thing?

The stock market seems to think this is good news, but we haven't heard from Inga yet.

RMc said...

Noted economic nincompoop Paul Krugman is spinning conspiracy theories that Trump "got to" the BLS.

Unemployment dropped under Obama, as well. Did he "get to" the BLS, too?

Readering said...

Krugman may have gotten the notion about BLS numbers from noted economic nincompoop Donald Trump, who pushed conspiracy theories about BLS numbers for the course of the prior adminisration. At least Krugman backed off within hours after being called on his admitted speculation.

Leland said...

Blue cities and states hardest hit, especially their racial minorities, LGBTQ community, women, and children.

Sebastian said...

Nice juxtaposition of WaPo headlines at RedState: "grim milestone" vs. "rate drops." Changed within hours.

Bob Smith said...

Paul knows how team “D” works. He thinks everybody does it.

daskol said...

I don’t much care for the GOP, but this is how Dems get out the vote: provoke racial animus, promote violence and destruction, talk down the economy and when that doesn’t work straight up try to kill it. They all suck, but the Dems have really descended to despicableness, irredeemably perhaps, and at least 10-15% are just bad people. That’s another incredibly annoying Dem habit, accusing their opponents of the perfidy they are in the midst of committing.

Quaestor said...

Noted economic nincompoop Paul Krugman is spinning conspiracy theories that Trump "got to" the BLS.

It's that hypnotic hair-do. A mere jostle of the Presidential locks and WHAMO! -- Bureaucrats queue up to do his every bidding. Why the entire viticulture branch of the Ag Department are doing nothing but feeding Melania peeled grapes.

cubanbob said...

One of customers is Outdoor World. All their stores are open except in Michigan and New York. What do those two states have in common?

We are not going to get a near full recovery until the Leftists running a number of states get kicked out of office. The virus which caused the sudden contraction is no one's fault. The excessive reaction and hysteria is the fault of the politicians but mostly of the Left and their media scaring the hell out of the country. Where is the social distancing among the vandals, looters and arsonists? That simply proves the panic was a sham from the jump. There was no need to kneecap the economy.

Temujin said...

Just for the record, the Democrat Party, and by that I mean the entirety of the media complex, academia, union leaders, non-governmental organizations, and of course Democrat politicians have had a very strong year so far. Let's review just some recent moves:

1) The desire to make all voting, mail-in, with no ID required and enhanced ballot harvesting nationally.
2) Continue the open border process to further the results of #1 above.
3) Stoke the fires of emotions around the country to get people so riled up they take to the streets coast to coast
4) Allow Antifa to spend years destroying property and beating up people, so that when this big event happens, they're fully trained and ready to go with a national presence.
5) Claim the riots are by white supremacists
6) Pretend you see no destruction of our cities, businesses and peoples lives, while you broadcast about how peaceful the riots are (for riots).
7) Egg on the destruction of black communities from coast to coast, then blame it on Trump or white supremacists, or police.
8) Start a defund the police movement nationally.
9) Restrict the police and national guard from doing their job, then tell the National Guard to leave.
10) Delight at the tanking of our economy after closing the entire country down, requiring people to stay indoors and lose their jobs, businesses, and lives, because...?
11) Arrest barbers in Michigan for cutting hair. Arrest Jews in Brooklyn for going to Synagogue. Make special plaza signs on the streets of Washington DC to welcome the rioters and protestors into the city- by the thousands, shoulder to shoulder.
12) Watch as thugs (yes...there's that word) drive up to stores around the country and just steal shit. Blame it on Trump.
13) Get their popcorn out this morning to hear the awaited disastrous economic news, almost gleeful in anticipation. Only to be disappointed at the good news- albeit a small bit of good news, for the masses who actually make this country work.

There should not be another Democrat elected for any office for 2 generations. I cannot say this too often. It'll take 2 generations to clean out this mess.

tim maguire said...

Obviously, what’s good for America is good for Trump. And therefore bad. All good Americans are rooting for more pain and suffering by Americans. The destruction of America is the only way to really make America great again.

MikeR said...

I'm a little surprised that so many found this astonishing. Obviously when you reopen, some jobs will reopen too. Eventually some more businesses will reopen. We'll see.

Wince said...

"Why the Shockingly Good Jobs Report Might Be Bad News" (New York Magazine).

The '10 to 15 percent' of Americans who are 'just not very good people' are revealing themselves.

[I]t is possible that the administration’s supply-siders will gain the upper hand, and opposition to further relief measures will harden....

Translation, ay further "stimulus" will go directly to the people in a payroll tax cut for workers, and not bailouts for Blue states and big cities.

Rick said...

Readering said...
Krugman may have gotten the notion about BLS numbers from noted economic nincompoop Donald Trump,


Right! Hyper-partisan Nobel economist follows the lead of opposite party. You know, when you put it like that maybe the takeaway here is that Readering is an idiot.

Drago said...

Jersey Fled: "Sooo...

Temporarily laid off workers returning to work is a bad thing?

The stock market seems to think this is good news, but we haven't heard from Inga yet."

We wont know what to make of this economic report until every BLS member has had their home searched for evidence of Hawaiian shirts and possibly Don Ho records.

It would probably be most efficient if we appointed a Special Counsel to look into this.

I hear Bullet Bob Mueller and Andrew Weissman are available.

bagoh20 said...

"Krugman may have gotten the notion about BLS numbers from noted economic nincompoop Donald Trump..."

So where is Trump's Nobel Prize? He reduced war more than Peace Prize winner Obama, and he taught Krugman about economics. Maybe one in medicine after we find out that Hydroxychloroquine does in fact work on Covid. Then, after he cures cancer and gets blamed for Oncologist unemployment, how can they possibly pass him over again?

iowan2 said...

I don't track the BLM number regularly. During Obama, those times I did pay attention, every time the "good" numbers were release,later they would be adjusted toward not so good, 2 weeks later. So if unemployment went from 7% to 5.9%, two weeks later would be "adjusted" to 6.2%. That was a pretty consistent occurrence. I have no idea if the same thing has happened during President Trump.

rehajm said...

Don't forget there were a multitude of positive factors for continued strong economic growth before the hibernation, most of which still exist. Coming out the other side we still have high consumer savings, pent up spending demand, high disposable incomes, and now personal income growth. Demographic trends favorable to household formation and guess what? Housing demand never wavered while inventory is low.

Doesn't sound like the leftie dreams of a great depression are coming true.

Gk1 said...

"Wrong way Krugman" strikes again. I know it gives me great cheer whenever he sings gloom and doom as the exact opposite will always happen.

Gahrie said...

I know people who could and should be working, but will not until that ends, which means we are paying people specifically not to contribute to their community and nation.

And the Democratic Party is committed to making such payments permanent (UBI).

GingerBeer said...

Fingers crossed!

Michael K said...

I think this is bad news because Coronavirus and the Protests/Riots were the first things that actually hurt Trump politically in 3 years. To be fair he actually really did not handle the protests/riots well (IMHO).

Well, he did lack that magic wand Obama said he would need to get jobs back.

If Trump walked on water, you'd accuse him of not being able to swim.

alanc709 said...

The $600 Unemployment stimulus was a preview of guaranteed income. All those people who don't want to go back to work for fear of losing that? They wouldn't work with a guaranteed income, either. Bet they'd have plenty of free time to protest.

narciso said...

Tom wolfe just sighs as does clay felker, after the curse sally quinn put on him,

Drago said...

Meanwhile, MSNBC completes their LLR-approved obama-gate coverage team by hiring Lisa Page to join the Andrew Weissman, John Brennan and former Crowdstrike CEO Shawn Henry.

All bases covered there with already proven liars under oath from Crowdstrike, CIA, FBI and Mueller team for "balanced" coverage of just what the obama-gaters pulled.

The Cracker Emcee Refulgent said...

“I suspect it is giving demonstrators more mobility and increasing the duration of the protests”

Keeping bars, clubs, and theaters closed has increased the duration of the riots. Had they been open, this would have been a one-night inner-city fest.

wendybar said...

Do you get it yet??? They WANT to bring down America, because they know Trump has them by the balls...and they are losing!

Quaestor said...

Is that kiddie porn Krugman you’re talking about?

The very one.

When first caught he tried to blame it on a hacked IP address. On the universal list of feeble excuses that one is near the top. If Kruggie were any more emasculated he'd be a walking vagina, which must be frustrating for a boy-butt paedophile. On 8 January he stentoriously tweeted "the Times is on the case". (queue the Dragnet Dum-dee-Dum-Dum)

Strange that the Newspaper of Record hasn't yet found the real perverts.

Maybe they should team up with OJ?

Left Bank of the Charles said...

I am more concerned about how fast we bring down the new infection curve. The only country in the top ten that we are beating at that is Sweden.

narciso said...

meanwhile I'm sure they went along when pelosi declared 'funemployment' was the the name of the game,

Unknown said...

Tyrone Slothrop said...

Good news for DJT is bad news for NYT. SMH.
6/5/20, 2:50 PM

Good news for America is bad news for NYT.

West Texas Intermediate Crude said...

The worse, the better.
The better, the worse.

Half the country is f'ed up
The other half is fed up.

West Texas Intermediate Crude said...

The worse, the better.
The better, the worse.

Half the country is f'ed up
The other half is fed up.

traditionalguy said...

The culture changing big boom times in mercantile economies have always followed a deadly pandemic that left behind it traumatized alive people suddenly cash flush from easy come wealth of family inheritance. So get ready for happy times to be here again.

MAJMike said...

Remember, kids, Krugman was a financial advisor to Enron.

Bay Area Guy said...

It's almost as if the Dems circulated a memo:

"Look, guys, any tidbit of good news is actually bad news, because anything good will help Trump get reelected. So, shut down everything. Viruses, lockdown, rioting, no baseball, no movies, schools by zoom, no barbershops, close the churches, and squash all glimmers of hope!"

It'll be a long 5 mo months til Nov, but hang tough. It's a big country and the markets are big too. Outside of NYC & LA, the rest of the country is marching forward.

I'm Not Sure said...

"Moreover, construction further juiced Florida's economy after each hurricane."

I'll bet the businesses that would have gotten the money that was spent on rebuilding might use a different word than "juiced" to describe what happened to the economy.

Just sayin'.

Drago said...

Left Bank of the Charles: "I am more concerned about how fast we bring down the new infection curve."

Uh oh! The economy is showing signs of improvement. Egads! All dems: Back to ChiCom Flu!!!

Wince said...

Even if Trump didn't "get" to the BLS, I do wonder if somebody from the administration "leaked" the "grim milestone" story to WaPo in advance of the announcement.

A two-fer: Make the result seem better by comparison when the actually good result comes out, and make fools of the fake news.

If so, Trump, you beautiful bastard!

Yancey Ward said...

MikeR had the same thought I expressed in a comment at MarginalRevolution earlier today- today's jobs report probably should have been expected given the nature of the shutdown and its timing. The shutdowns ended in a lot of states, with about half the population, the first week of May. Most of the furloughs happened in the first 5 weeks of the shutdown, and we should have expected that you would see net job growth from that April bottom. I mean, I hate to break it to the 8 year olds that write for The New Yorker, but in past recessions, almost all the job growth coming out of a recession is the return to work of people laid off in the recession, and in their old jobs- this is especially true in retail and manufacturing, and also a broad swath of services. Whatever 2nd and 3rd order job losses the shutdown will cause are still likely in the future, and quite possibly well beyond the election itself.

On another note, I was apparently correct- the BLS leadership was trying to count people still on their companies' payrolls but not actually working as unemployed, but the field workers either actively disregarded these directives, or were just following the old guidelines that treated anyone on a payroll as employed. Shocking, I know, that being paid counts as being employed.

wildswan said...

It may be that the big Dem-run cities will have high unemployment in their centers for a long time as that is what their mayors want but the small "villages" - villages of truckers, food chain people, drugstore chain people, hardware store chain people, bankers, gas station people - that are keeping everything going are apparently expanding and can go on expanding for quite some time. Then farming and ranching has to start and keep going. Drilling and mining are going, The garden supply chain bursting with sales and therefore jobs. Barbers and hair stylists have work for weeks to come. Hospitality and travel will not boom except in places they have stopped treating guests like Typhoid Mary but I expect that to happen. I can see social distancing becoming a more elegant way of eating out - outdoors, patios with flower pots between tables. Then schools and work going online is economic opportunity for IT people and great savings for parents next year. Real estate in the burbs in booming. Companies are really seeing that China is a dangerous investment. Lastly, these reports about people refusing to work - those have to be very short-sighted workers not to see that someone will take their place and get the promotions if they don't go back.

All these swirling changes! and amid them middle class members of the black community have new opportunities while the return of manufacturing is opportunity for those with a high school education or less.

I can't see Slow-Joe handling change of this magnitude, I doubt if he is even aware of it, crouched in a basement and surrounded by hard-left handlers intent on bewildering and swindling their way to power on his confusion. And replacing him means putting forward a hard-left candidate, someone already rejected by the Democratic voters themselves in the primaries or in the last election. I see Trump, magnificent in difficulties, striding to victory.

Drago said...

The left isn't joking about anything.

And I mean anything.....


CNN guest Tim Wise- “White kids don’t deserve innocence, childhood, to feel they won’t be killed because black kids don’t.”


That was just today. Its amazing what these lefty marxist psychos have in store for our children.

Spiros Pappas said...

We need more stimulus.

wholelottasplainin' said...

Left Bank of the Charles said...
I am more concerned about how fast we bring down the new infection curve. The only country in the top ten that we are beating at that is Sweden.
****************

pls cite your source

buwaya said...

The "number" being reported is, as mentioned above, somewhat in the way of an early report, subject to adjustment and etc., it depends on whats happened to labor force participation which is a lagging number, and not necessarily a guide to conditions four months from now, as there is a great deal of lockdown-suppressed demand for labor that is being released, but it remains to be seen whether there is much more of that that will manifest beyond the initial rush.

But it is indisputably good news in that it did not go the other way, which would have forecast a disaster.

gadfly said...

If full-time and part-time unemployed workers are drawing $600 per week plus normal average unemployment pay of $372 per week, that works out to $24/hr full-time and and $39/hr half-time. Until job offers exceed these pay rates, workers can stay on enhanced UC through week ending July 25 - and perhaps longer. Why would they do otherwise?

I can only conclude that Trump demands that the rate drop from April resulted in unbelievablely "doctored" numbers.

According to Reuters:

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast payrolls falling by 8 million jobs. They had expected the survey of households to show the unemployment rate jumping to 19.8%.

Johnathan Birks said...

Trump says the media are enemies of the American people. They seem determined to prove him right.

Maybe any tactic that diverts attention to the ongoing train wreck that is the Biden campaign is a net plus?

rehajm said...

https://mobile.twitter.com/jasonfurman/status/1268893499560206338

On Krugman's latest epic fail: One lefty economist calls out another

Drago said...

gadfly: "I can only conclude that Trump demands that the rate drop from April resulted in unbelievablely "doctored" numbers."

And right on cue gadfly pops in with another Inga/Howard-like lunatic conspiracy.

Howard is still running around saying tear gas was used in Lafayette park even though not a single police officer or park police officer was wearing a mask.

Too funny.

wholelottasplainin' said...

hstad said...
Not surprised that everything President Trump says or does is subject to ridicule. I lived in Florida and experienced several Hurricanes (like the article mentions) and yes the economy came back quickly. Moreover, construction further juiced Florida's economy after each hurricane. Any additional boost now coming from D.C. to further juice the economy will help us - and President Trump's chances come November.
***************

someone ought to introduce you to the economic concept called "Bastiat's window."

Look it up.

Yancey Ward said...

Ah, poor gadfly. I feel your pain, my friend. Your tears are like manna from heaven.

Guildofcannonballs said...

I came up with "you didn't build that" before I clicked to unfold the context.

Trump didn't build this. Trump will rebuild us from this, alone with God if need be.

gilbar said...

WHY is it up to poor old ignorant me, to point out that:
Employers who follow federal, state and local safety measures and call employees back to their former jobs will likely be recognized as providing “suitable work.” Workers cannot refuse suitable work and get any kind of unemployment benefits, says Michele Evermore, a senior policy analyst with the National Employment Law Project. They also can’t remain on unemployment simply because benefits pay them more than what they’d earn after returning to work.

Guildofcannonballs said...

"but it remains to be seen whether there is much more of that that will manifest beyond the initial rush."

So you're dumb?

Or can you relate to any time ever where what you said above isn't true? Because it has always been true, even in war-time shitholes like the Philappes has seen.

Blah blah buwaya "Yogi Bera is better than me you see because..."

Us Americans have figured out things before you were born, we again will Sir. Thank you for all the tax revenue. Hate or not is irrelevant.

Guildofcannonballs said...

Tupac matters.

Rick said...

Drago said...
Meanwhile, MSNBC completes their LLR-approved obama-gate coverage team by hiring Lisa Page to join the Andrew Weissman, John Brennan and former Crowdstrike CEO Shawn Henry.


Like academia the media sees part of its role as ensuring those who suffer loss advancing leftism are made whole. This is why leftists support financial retribution: they know it will never apply to them.

Birkel said...

Leftist Collectivists *want* failure.
Cloward-Piven FTW

Even a strong left-leaner like Althouse sees it.

narciso said...

Pay a little respect, guild, buwaya is an authority that should be listened to. The prog project has been in effect as much in the phillipines as anywhere else.

Howard said...

Drago has the nagging perseverance of a soon to be ex-wife. You go girl.

Howard said...

That was the most cogent Buwaya Puti post in a long time. However he is still in violation of the all happy talk all the time rule of trump. Just win baby

narciso said...


Oh never mind then


https://dailycaller.com/2020/06/05/poll-police-behaving-appropriately-aggressive-protests/

narciso said...

He is rarely not coherent, now the story isnt always reassuring we arent fighting individuals we are fighting constellations of corporate media governmemt sysgy.

Drago said...

Howard: "Drago has the nagging perseverance of a soon to be ex-wife. You go girl."

Tell us more about imaginary tear gas dragons and russian spies.

Drago said...

Howard: "Drago has the nagging perseverance of a soon to be ex-wife."

Well, David Dorn and Dave Patrick Underwood remain dead at the hands of your Heroes, so, yeah, I guess that's not going to change.

Drago said...

Here's a fun video showing Trump hunkered down in his bunker, according to Howard and Inga:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q0CRtC7M-58

Enjoy.

Achilles said...

Howard said...
That was the most cogent Buwaya Puti post in a long time. However he is still in violation of the all happy talk all the time rule of trump. Just win baby


His posts are only hard for stupid people to understand.

Paul said...

Hope is all the Democrats have. They hope the country fails so they can become lords of the junk pile. They hope Biden can keep two sentences coherent during the debates to come.

I expect next month another round of new jobs... 1-2 million... Stock market will be in the 28,000 or more.

In fact all summer I expect very good economic news. The virus was "U" shaped. 3 months we were at the bottom of the "U". We are now heading upwards.

And the Democrats hate that. Hence the ginning up of the race baiting protest/vandalism/looting with the help of Antifa.

ken in tx said...

"I swore,and cowered from the inflation I was sure would follow that "shovel-ready" debt and deficit ditch. Where is the inflation now? How is it possible a blowout hasn't happened yet? Obviously I don't get it. Am I Krugman stupid? I am really worried. Help!"

Me too, but here's what I have figured. Nobody knows anymore how much debt and fiat money the US can issue without triggering run-away inflation. That's because the US dollar is a world-wide currency. It's value is not based on just the economic production of the US, but on the production of most of the whole world. Inflation is cause by too much money chasing too few goods. There's no shortage of goods in the world and people everywhere are willing to take US dollars for them--even among themselves. As long as this holds up, inflation will remain in check.

Gahrie said...

They hope Biden can keep two sentences coherent during the debates to come.

If Biden ends up being the actual candidate (I still think it will be Hillary), he will refuse to debate Trump, and claim it's because he doesn't want to give Trump the air of legitimacy.

Guildofcannonballs said...

I said vicious scrutiny ought be the standard, based on the power.

I asked Althouse Why haven't the trillions our Universitys have spent resulted in anything but riots and looters as of today.

We know, we told, it didn't matter, now Trump is to blame.

wholelottasplainin' said...

Paul said...
Hope is all the Democrats have. They hope the country fails so they can become lords of the junk pile.
****************

As Milton said in "Paradise Lost", there are those who would rather rule in Hell than serve in Heaven.

That attitude sums up the radical left, including modern-day Democrats.

Lords of the Flies.

Michael K said...

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast payrolls falling by 8 million jobs. They had expected the survey of households to show the unemployment rate jumping to 19.8%.

gadfly, I feel your pain. Here you were 100% with Krugman and the disaster team.

Then, god damn it, Trump pulls another rabbit out of the hat. What is a Marxist boy to do but wail and rend his clothing? The coyote understands. That tunnel on the rock has to be real ! Nobody would do that to poor old gadfly again !

Michael K said...

there is a great deal of lockdown-suppressed demand for labor that is being released, but it remains to be seen whether there is much more of that that will manifest beyond the initial rush.

Watch blue states vs red states. Sort of Catalonia vs Extremadura

Lurker21 said...

There was talk that Bill Clinton cooked the unemployment numbers when he was president. I wouldn't be surprised if every administration had somebody to massage the statistics until they were acceptable. When you consider that the statistics don't take those who've left the labor market into account, it seems like a certain amount of fudging was always built into the statistics.

Ditto for coronavirus statistics. How large a country is, how much they test, and how much governments want to reveal can affect the numbers. The US is following the same curve as Europe, but as a larger country and one that was hit by the virus later than the European countries, we are a bit behind them in the curve. The number of new cases in the developing world is still growing.

Quaestor said...

Gow are Democrats, Antifa, and their safely anonymous myrmidons who comment on this and other influential blogs just like Hitler?

Well, many, many ways. Their vile tactics employed to silence dissenting voices are National Socialist playbook tactics of long-standing. However, at this moment, their Hitler playbook tactic is wanton destruction of one's own city, state, and country. Just like dear old Adolf in April of '45, the "progressives" would rather destroy everything than be defeated

Drago said...

Joe Biden, once again really nailing it................not.

"Despite a litany of public appeals from many people including me back in January not to let American lives and the U.S. economy on the world hang on his confidence quote the Chinese word"
--Joe Biden, 6/5/20

Not only lying and lying in a most pathetic fashion, but tossing it into a jumbled word salad.

Poor slow gropey Joe.

It will be a miracle if he even makes it to August 1.

Lewis Wetzel said...

Our "experts" haven't been doing too well, lately, have they?
Kind of makes you doubt that the experts can predict the average global temperature and the sea level fifty years from now doesn't it?
Am I allowed to say that in a public forum? I'm not sure that this is still a free country.

readering said...

So instead of just expressing his instinct that there was something off about the BLS numbers Krugman should have waited until he had studied the fine print. From WaPo:

"When the U.S. government’s official jobs report for May came out on Friday, it included a note at the bottom saying there had been a major “error” indicating that the unemployment rate likely should be higher than the widely reported 13.3 percent rate.

"The special note said that if this “misclassification error” had not occurred, the “overall unemployment rate would have been about 3 percentage points higher than reported,” meaning the unemployment rate would be about 16.3 percent for May.

"The Bureau of Labor Statistics, the agency that puts out the monthly jobs reports, said it was working to fix the problem."

gadfly said...

The Journal’s Josh Mitchell . . . interviewed a saloon keeper named Mike Brand and reports:

Many of his servers and bartenders have declined offers to come back to work, he said. Some are fearful of catching the virus; others don’t want to give up their unemployment benefits, which currently pay them more than they would earn at the restaurant. He believes that as enhanced unemployment benefits expire he will have an easier time finding workers...

The Congressional Budget Office, in a Thursday letter to members of Congress, said it estimated expanding enhanced jobless benefits through January 2021 would mean five in every six claimants would make more money from unemployment insurance than from work. The program pays workers an extra $600 a week and is currently set to expire in July.

buwaya said...

The confusion is mainly over workers who were being paid by their employers but are (or were) not officially at work at the time they were surveyed.

The circumstances are unprecedented and the statistics and data collection will take some time to return to a normal state. The headline number, of "new" jobs, is the more telling takeaway.

buwaya said...

There is an economic value in forgoing an unemployment payment or two for the sake of a job, because in most cases there is some assurance of an ongoing relationship and consequent income security. A net $600 is not a good offset for even six months or a years employment.

Everybody will come to a different answer depending on their situation. "Gig" workers like restaurant waiters that have an inherently unstable outlook are just a subset of the workforce.

iowan2 said...

Buwaya@8:03

This is so simple and basic. That some would choose to tether themselves to short term 'feeling' of security, explains a lot of persons choice to live paycheck to paycheck. I stopped having empathy for people that insist on making choices not in their best interest.

Jeff said...

"I swore,and cowered from the inflation I was sure would follow that "shovel-ready" debt and deficit ditch. Where is the inflation now? How is it possible a blowout hasn't happened yet? Obviously I don't get it. Am I Krugman stupid? I am really worried. Help!"

The classic monetarist view is that inflation results from having too much money chasing too few goods and services. But this time really is different, because since 2008 the Fed has been paying interest on excess reserves. What economists used to call "high-powered money" is now just another form of short term Treasury debt. It only becomes "money" in the classic sense when a bank withdraws it from their Fed account and lends it to someone.

But you can still have inflation if the Fed creates too much money. If they suddenly stopped paying interest on excess reserves and did not reduce those reserves by selling much of the Fed's portfolio of government debt instruments, banks would start lending those reserves out left and right, expanding money and eventually creating inflation. But there's no sign of that happening.

If you don't want to be so surprised by the inflation numbers, take a look at the Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) market. Implicit in the market prices for those securities are break-even inflation rates. These are effectively market-based forecasts of inflation over the life of the bond. As such, they incorporate all publicly available information, and they are at least as accurate as any other forecasts you can find. Five and ten-year breakeven rates can be found with Google.

Sam L. said...

New York seems to me to be nuts.

Yancey Ward said...

Buwaya is among the best commenters all time on this site. Provocative, thoughtful, educated, erudite, profoundly knowledgeable about fundamental human nature, and experienced in life. You have to have all three characteristics to be a top commenter.

Yancey Ward said...

Damned automobile- "all these characteristics".

Birkel said...

Keep hoping, readering.
Prepare yourself for the re-election of Trump.

Readering said...

Prepare yourself Birkel.