May 25, 2020

The NYT calls the pandemic "the greatest existential threat in our lifetimes" — presumably greater than nuclear annihilation and anthropogenic climate change.

Maybe whatever is going on right now seems bigger than everything else, but the pandemic, at its worst, was only set to wipe out 5% of us, and nuclear war was going to kill us all. As for climate change, if it's not worse than killing 5% of us — mostly the old — then it's not as bad as it's been portrayed in the press.

I'm reading "The Most Patriotic Thing You Can Do Right Now/Our nation is rising, however imperfectly, to meet the challenge posed by the coronavirus pandemic. That needs to be said more often" by the NYT Editorial Board.

Ah, it seems that only a few weeks ago, there were mainstream media voices who would have called Donald Trump "the greatest existential threat in our lifetimes."

But the pandemic is the "existential threat" that we've done the most about — taken so seriously and changed so much of what we are doing. Maybe we need to call it the "the greatest existential threat in our lifetimes" to make sense out of how much we've done. We haven't been willing to sacrifice so much to deal with climate change — to radically shrink economic activity and to stay home or very near home. Much of what we've done for the pandemic is also what we could do for climate change if we took it deadly seriously.

Why did we do it? Deaths were happening before our eyes, and experts told us this is what we all need to do, and the whole world was doing it at once, and we understood that it needed to be done right away. That is what's greatest about the pandemic: The way We the People of the World acted in response to the thing — not the thing itself.

Now, to read the editorial. It begins with a "thank you," and it advises us not to look only at the failures but to look at all the good "the vast majority of Americans have done." Why limit it to Americans? Because it's Memorial Day?
This weekend, as we honor those who made the ultimate sacrifice in defense of our country, it’s worth pausing to acknowledge the smaller but essential patriotic sacrifices we are all making today, for one another...
We've done a lot of "smaller" things. Whether they were and are "essential," we'll never know, and we'll analyze and politicize for as long as our lifetime lasts.
You’re doing great, my fellow Americans. What you have been asked to do is not easy...
But it is much easier than giving your life in battle.
... but you’re doing it. And you’ve already made a big difference. People are alive today who might otherwise not be, thanks to the sacrifices you have made and are continuing to make....
The editors call on us to continue. It's a thanks in advance:
Until there is a vaccine, which could be years from now, the simple acts of wearing a mask and practicing social distancing may be the most reliable ways to stem the spread of the disease and save more lives.
And if you don't believe in the cause, don't protest:
The most patriotic thing that Americans can do right now is not to carry military-style rifles to a protest that shuts down their state legislature, or to spread baseless conspiracy theories online, or to pick fights in a supermarket over reasonable public health measures....
Or at least, don't do the sorts of protests that are never a good idea, whether they're about a pandemic or anything else. The editors don't go so far as to tell Americans that it's not "patriotic" to have protests about our disagreement with what the government tries to force us to do.

As Hillary Clinton famously said: "I'm sick and tired of people who say that if you debate and disagree with this administration, somehow you're not patriotic. We need to stand up and say we're Americans, and we have the right to debate and disagree with any administration."

117 comments:

narciso said...

And yet they say little about the emmanuel houses.

Danno said...

Never rely on the NYT for information on the dem-panic, much less any real news. An informed person can detect their progtard slant almost immediately.

Temujin said...

I'm pretty sure the NY Times is the greatest existential threat to the US.

mesquito said...

Did they ever close the subways?

gspencer said...

"[E]xistential threat?"

Try Islam.

Mr Wibble said...

At this point my attitude is "Screw them all." Everyone. On both sides. The idiot governors and fascist thugs who want us locked in our houses until a vaccine is discovered, the meddling Karens who can't shut up and leave people alone for walking by themselves outside, the right-wing nutters who think any sort of behavioral change to try and mitigate the spread of a disease is somehow a sign of cowardice, the "if it saves just one life" crowd, the "it's only old people dying" crowd, etc. They can all eat a bag of fermented dog crap.

exhelodrvr1 said...

The problem is with the "greatest existential threat" crap. When they try and sell an exaggeration like that, people push back much more than they would if they were honest about the threat level. And we've known for months now that it wasn't as severe as initially thought.

Inga said...

“”We need to stand up and say we're Americans, and we have the right to debate and disagree with any administration."”

Yes, even the Trump administration.

Andrew said...

That editorial reads like it was written by a "board" of high school kids. Are there any adults working over there?

MayBee said...

Thanks for this, Althouse. The OpEd seems shameless to me.

And I can never stop feeling they'd never write the same thing if New York was just fine and Tulsa had a health crisis ravaging its city. Or if it was the kind of pandemic where somehow you weren't stuck at home reading news online or watching cable tv and finally- finally- boosting their revenues.

Karga said...

I do not know about Hillary Clinton but I am also sick and tired. Simple reasons for this. First "save lives", did we forget the rules of the nature? We are born and after some time we are bound to die. I find the "save lives" stupid. I am not an American and I live in a country, once a jewel, now practically and economically destroyed with my business bankrupt and no income just in two months. They are saving my life from the virus preparing it to die from hunger. Yes our president continues to enforce the lockdown but graciously will allow me to buy a beer soon but no tobacco.

David Begley said...

The greatest existential threat of our lifetimes? That’s fucked. Did those New Yorkers forget about 9-11?

There was a pandemic going on in America when Woodstock happened, but people didn’t panic because the Fake News didn’t play it up.

And it is mostly old and sick people who have died. The median age of the dead in Minnesota is 83.

David Begley said...

And CAGW is a total scam. It is premised on models even worse than the covid19 models.

The NYT needs to cover the news. Current events. Stop speculating about what MIGHT happen in the future.

h said...

Here's one message I wish would be more widely understood: "Conversely, there are no documented cases of someone acquiring covid-19 by passing a stranger while walking outdoors." That's from a reasonable (IMO) article in Washington Post about how to reduce your own personal risk, as well as acting for the communal good. https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/05/21/four-concepts-assess-your-personal-risk-us-reopens/#comments-wrapper

tim maguire said...

Logical consistency is for non-partisans.

For partisans (like the editorial board of the NYT), truths are divided into 2 categories--objective truth and revolutionary truth. Conservatives aspire to embrace objective truth--things are right or wrong on their own, regardless of our interests. Liberals embrace revolutionary truth--truth is that which furthers the revolution.

Another way of looking at it is that words have not just factual content, but emotional content. To partisans (like the editorial board of the NYT), emotional content is superior to factual content. Words are true if they inspire the intended emotional reaction. In this case, the Times wants you to be afraid of the corona virus. If their words inspire fear (which they want to manipulate to serve their own ends), then their words are true.

Sebastian said...

"Why did we do it?"

1. Fear and panic. 2. Sheer coercion.

"Deaths were happening before our eyes"

Sorry: not a single death happened "before my eyes." In my state, a big chunk happened in nursing homes.

"experts told us this is what we all need to do"

11 million! "real calculations"! They had no clue. Their followers had no clue. As the pro-sanity faction pointed out for the start.

"and the whole world was doing it at once, and we understood that it needed to be done right away."

"it" : part of the insanity. The issue was always whether to protect people who were actually at risk vs. shutting down whole economies.

"That is what's greatest about the pandemic: The way We the People of the World acted in response to the thing — not the thing itself."

The response was the disaster, insofar as it went beyond the isolation of the old and sick.

"People are alive today who might otherwise not be, thanks to the sacrifices you have made and are continuing to make...."

Whether the "sacrifices" made any difference to complications for the old and sick is debatable. But the question was always whether the same result could have been achieved at much lower cost. The pro-sanity faction said yes, now backed up by Acemoglu et al. Closing K-12 didn't save a single life in any case.

"the simple acts of wearing a mask and practicing social distancing may be the most reliable ways to stem the spread of the disease and save more lives."

That simply means the insanity epidemic continues: for most people Covid-19 is harmless and stemming the spread doesn't benefit them. Delaying herd immunity is bad for the vulnerable.

stevew said...

"We" didn't voluntarily do anything, our government forced us to isolate and, if not that, social distance. Under threat of punishment. The government forces me to wear a mask to do routine activities such as grocery shopping. If a thank you is due it is for not engaging in open, violent rebellion.

The CDC has now updated it's assessment of the infection fatality rate (IFR) and it is much lower than predicted early on.

CDC New Best Estimate

Government shut down their states based on those early predictions. It is also clear now that the difference in IFR among the states has nothing to do with social distancing (on a broad scale) and economic shut down. The difference in fatalities is explained by the difference in the actions of states toward infected elderly patients. Compare the approaches and outcomes of Florida and New York. The other difference is clearly the age and underlying health of the individual: if you are under 65 years old and in general good health you are very, very unlikely to die.

As for a vaccine, there is growing concern that there may not be one coming any time soon. Why? "From the U.K. comes the extraordinary news that vaccine manufacturers may not be able to test their vaccines successfully because hardly anyone is getting the Wuhan virus"
- Powerline -

Is Covid Dying Out?

So the justification for the social distancing regime, mask wearing, economy shuttering acts is evaporating. As people get out and about, and don't get sick and people they know don't either, the compliance with the orders will erode - rapidly.

If those writers at the NYT are smart, and informed, and honest, and well-intentioned, then what is their reason and motivation for this piece, today?



John Borell said...

Love this sentence:

“Today, nearly two-thirds of Americans agree that masking is a matter of public health. (The science, while still evolving, backs that up.)”

So, maybe the science backs it up. Maybe not. But we must virtue signal.

michaele said...

Such a truly memorable quote from Hillary...I can literally hear her voice raising to a screeching crescendo as she yelled it at us.

Darrell said...

Well--it IS bigger than anthropogenic climate change. A bug's dick is.

David Begley said...

The 1968 flu killed around 150K Americans when adjusted for total population, but about 265K when adjusted for the size of the 65+ population.

Scott said...

"Existential" is vying for dominance over "sustainable" as the new "bullshit."

How is an "existential threat" qualitatively different from a "threat?" Unless you mean it in the sense that the pandemic will wipe humans off the planet (which it won't, according to science), then "existential threat" is either hysterical or tautological in a muzzy sort of way.

Why do they write like that? The NYT Editorial Board must be smoking crack again. I can't think of a better explanation.

RNB said...

The NYT glamorizes anti-pandemic measures and delegitimizes any protests against them or unflattering evaluations of their effectiveness, all in the service of Democrat politicians everywhere in this great land.

Dust Bunny Queen said...

The greatest threat right NOW and probably in our lifetimes is the Democrats hysterical and politically calculated overreaction to a normal Flu Season.

Everything they have done, forced upon the population, has made things worse. Worse not just for this current Flu Season but for decades after.

By destroying the economy and seizing power from the people to themselves in order to turn us into a replica of George Orwell's 1984....they are destroying the United States and much of the World in a way that will be hard if impossible to change.

I'm glad I'm old and won't live to see the end result. I am sad for the children and my Grandchildren who will never know what freedoms we had and which we so cavalierly let slip away from us.

William said...

The greatest existential threat I have faced during my lifetime was a philosophy professor who tried to assign Sartre's Being and Nothingness as required reading. Fortunately I was able to change classes, but the sense of dread and impending doom stayed with me for years. It was a close run thing.

MacMacConnell said...

It's the greatest existential threat to the elderly living in assisted living facilities in Democratically controlled jurisdictions. People who still get paychecks keep telling me we are all in this together. What bullshit.

wendybar said...

And if you go through the names on the front page, many did not die of Corona virus. One was murdered, but his obituary said there would be no funeral due to the corona virus. I don't know why you keep on reading and believing the tabloids Ann. They lie to you daily, and are hoping people will forward and spew the lies and keep them going. When you have to fact check everything they write...it's time to give them up.

wendybar said...

On top of it...MOST of the deaths are really the fault of the Governors (Cuomo and Murphy...talking about you!!) who forced the nursing homes to take infected people making their counts climb higher and higher. Notice Governor De Santis DIDN'T do that?? Who are the press praising?? Killer Cuomo!!!

Fernandinande said...

You’re doing great, my fellow Americans. What you have been asked to do is not easy...

On the contrary, hasn't been difficult at all, plus $1200 free money and cheap gas.

But we, meaning you, should all spare a thought for the millions of government employees who have to live with the guilt of getting paid to stay home.

Fritz said...

Trump need to start counting "saved lives" from 328.2 million backwards, the way Obama did in counting "jobs saved" during his stimulus.

Dear corrupt left, go F yourselves said...

Democrats want open borders and sanctuary cities. I'm sure that will be great for virus spreading.
Hillary wants a total breakdown of everything so she can swoop in and re-take her international money-whore power station back.

tim maguire said...

Andrew said...
That editorial reads like it was written by a "board" of high school kids.


That fairly describes most NYT editorials.

Are there any adults working over there?

Sadly, no.

Lloyd W. Robertson said...

What a long strange trip it has been for the boomers. When they were young: demanding immediate withdrawal from Vietnam because there was nothing to fear from Communists, spending days or weeks in a farmer's field with limited facilities, kissing and, er, kissing strangers, and saying the existential threats were the U.S. government, especially the Pentagon, FBI, and CIA, and capitalism. Now: Trump-Russia and accusing loyal Americans of treason; distancing out of fear of, what's it called again, oh yes, death, and worshipping at the feet of partisan hacks who lead the FBI and CIA. No real problem with China selling us the rope with which we will hang ourselves. Way too many existential threats--the noise of fear-mongering makes it difficult to relax, but for most us, the terrible fears cancel each other out. Sheeplike submissiveness to governments which claim to be mothering us, because we are so afraid of erratic, supposedly Mussolini-like leaders.

I like John Borrell's comment: the science is "evolving," but it must be accepted obediently if not blindly as if it were "settled." Anything to keep saying Trump is stupid.

Tina Trent said...

Sebastian: most people with eyes in their heads and even those without can "see" the deaths -- of fellow humans -- in nursing homes.

Note the Times is giving ANTIFA a pass, as usual. Millions in property damage, lives threatened, guest speakers sent to emergency rooms, free speech suppressed, security guards injured, cops injured, cops killed at their protests. On the conservative side: no property damage, extremely rare fisty-cuffies started by leftist counter-protesters, no cops injured, ever.

But at least they wear masks!

Bay Area Guy said...

The NYT is the chief bullhorn for the claque of statists who continually exaggerate the risk of the virus, and continually minimize the actual damage caused by the lockdown.

Yet, according to the CDC - the science - the CFR is 0.26 and at least 35% of infected people have no symptoms..

What a cruel joke to shut down the restaurant industry, the hotel industry, the casino industry, the airline industry, and the rental car business and countless other businesses over such a paltry risk.

Bruce Hayden said...

“ The most patriotic thing that Americans can do right now is not to carry military-style rifles to a protest that shuts down their state legislature, or to spread baseless conspiracy theories online, or to pick fights in a supermarket over reasonable public health measures....”

Why are those not patriotic? Absolute nonsense. The NYT appears to be defining “patriotic” as buying into the nonsense that Democrats are peddling. But from my point of view, showing up to a protest carrying an AR-15, that looks l8je (but doesn’t operate like) the guns our military have been carrying for almost sixty years now is patriotic because it supports them, but also supports our 1st and 2nd Amdt rights. They are the non patriots by opposing all of the above - our military, and our 1st and 2nd Amdt rights. Our country was founded by its people rising up with their guns, and defeating the foreign tyrant ruling them. Without that, we would still be essentially second class British subjects. Why is being proud that we aren’t not considered patriotic?

The answer, of course, that the NYT, with its largest stockholder now a Mexican billionaire, has no stake in our continued independence from the world order. I expect that they know that they are the unpatriotic ones, and are perfectly happy that way. Their goal is to convince as many people as possible to give up their freedoms in favor of rule by international elites. But that will only happen if Americans give up the independence, rooted in those two Amendments, that makes us unique, and this country so great.

Fernandinande said...

"That is what's greatest about the pandemic: The way We the People of the World acted in response to the thing — not the thing itself."

The response was the disaster, insofar as it went beyond the isolation of the old and sick.


Yes, the grotesquely hysterical overreaction was the worst thing about it.

I don't know why you keep on reading and believing the tabloids Ann.

Almost the entire NYT front page is about the cooties, followed by anti-white racism.

Laslo Spatula said...

"That is what's greatest about the pandemic: The way We the People of the World acted in response to the thing — not the thing itself."

Let's all pat ourselves on the back.

WALNUT CREEK, Calif. -- Doctors at John Muir Medical Center in Walnut Creek say they have seen more deaths by suicide during this quarantine period than deaths from the COVID-19 virus..

"Personally I think it's time," said Dr. Mike deBoisblanc. "I think, originally, this (the shelter-in-place order) was put in place to flatten the curve and to make sure hospitals have the resources to take care of COVID patients.We have the current resources to do that and our other community health is suffering."

The numbers are unprecedented, he said.

"We've never seen numbers like this, in such a short period of time," he said. "I mean we've seen a year's worth of suicide attempts in the last four weeks."

Kacey Hansen has worked as a trauma nurse at John Muir Medical Center in Walnut Creek for almost 33 years. She is worried because not only are they seeing more suicide attempts, she says they are not able to save as many patients as usual.

"What I have seen recently, I have never seen before," Hansen said. "I have never seen so much intentional injury."

Victory Laps all around.

I am Laslo.

hawkeyedjb said...

Inga said...
“”We need to stand up and say we're Americans, and we have the right to debate and disagree with any administration."

Yes, even the Trump administration."

Once again dissent is patriotic. Probably won't be next year when the Biden administration takes office.

Rory said...

Once the facts about the Diamond Princess - a captive population, with people from all over the world of diverse ages (though weighted to the aged) - were known, it was obvious that this was not a magic virus, and we should have been assured of that.

Kevin said...

”We need to stand up and say we're Americans, and we have the right to debate and disagree with any administration."

Unless it’s headed by a black person.

That just makes you racist.

Matt Sablan said...

“”We need to stand up and say we're Americans, and we have the right to debate and disagree with any administration."”

Yes, even the Trump administration.

-- This is kind of madness, don't you think? No one has suffered any consequences for disagreeing with Trump; Trump has not tried to stop any protests. In fact, even before Trump was president, he willingly closed his own rallies so that protestors didn't threaten the lives of their fellow citizens with their protests and gave them space to demonstrate, even if it meant surrendering to the heckler's veto.

The fact people think that there's some sort of need to say "Yes, even the Trump administration," when it is the most protested against and accepted to protest against modern government is perplexing. Trump isn't silencing journalists, nor did he have Congress and "enemy" journalists spied on like Obama. Disagreeing with Trump is a surefire way to public acceptance, if not advancement in many positions.

So, why do you feel the need to pretend that anyone needs to be told it is OK to protest the Trump administration?

Money Manger said...

Per their policy, the Times disables comments on the most egregiously moronic articles. They are afraid of what they might hear from their few intelligent readers.

Darkisland said...

5% of335mm is 16mm people.

That seems way high for us deaths. Highest estimate I remember was the laugh out loud ridiculous 2mm by thay limey.

2mm would be 0.6%.kind of a big difference

Some people really have trouble with simple math.

John Henry

TrespassersW said...

A quick web search reveals that the following things are "existential threats" (in the eyes of some pants-wetters, anyway):
- Donald Trump
- Climate change
- Terrorism
- Radical Islam
- Genetic modification of humans
- Nuclear warfare
- An "earth destroyer" asteroid

I know I didn't get them all.

narciso said...

I call them the blank pages, because they obfuscate where and how the infection spread, when they argue against opening, because skydragons

Darkisland said...

I also don't think nuclear war was ever going to kill "all of us"

I don't think anyone ever expected it to kill more than 50%.

Of course if by "all of us" one means the coastal elites in ny,DC, sf and so on, not counting us untermenschen out in flyover country. Perhaps the "all of us" is accurate

John Henry

Oso Negro said...

A more honest Memorial Day would recognize the sacrifices made in each conflict and list the freedoms subsequently lost by government action after each one. I am the father and son of veterans, BOTH of whom still suffer for their service. What was accomplished? Preserving the wealth and advantages of the most influential in our society. That’s all.

h said...

Rory's comment: What we should have been able to figure out in March from the Diamond Princess experience -- in which every single person on the ship was tested and monitored. Less than 7% of passengers under age 50 caught the virus -- even though no measures like masks or distancing were imposed, and where people had repeated contact with one another for 2 weeks. Can we put Rory in charge of the CDC?

Oso Negro said...

The virus is not an existential threat for most Americans. The government response threatens a much larger number. 43,000,000 unemployed and I am sure it will pass 50,000,000. The economic horror will take many more lives.

Laslo Spatula said...

"...The way We the People of the World acted in response to the thing..."

I think I heard this before...

We are the world
We are the children
We are the ones who make a brighter day, so let's start giving
There's a choice we're making
We're saving our own lives
It's true we'll make a better day, just you and me...

I am Laslo.

Big Mike said...

Whether they were and are "essential," we'll never know, and we'll analyze and politicize for as long as our lifetime lasts.

Actually we certainly will know, and the latest numbers from CDC suggests that we already do know. The mortality rate is not 5% , as the Times states,that’s a very old estimate that has long been overtaken by more extensive testing and more experience treating the disease. The mortality rate, based on the latest numbers, is around 0.5%, perhaps lower. We overdid it, and except for Georgia, Texas, and Florida we are still overdoing it.

In retrospect, where we “underdid” it In many states was in nursing homes, particularly New York. We already knew, from the way that COVID-19 raced through that first nursing home in Washington state, that what we mostly needed to do was protect elderly patients in nursing homes. Instead, various governors — Cuomo most infamously — forced nursing homes to accept patients ill with coronavirus. This was so obviously wrong as to suggest a deliberate effort to kill people.

Bruce Hayden said...

The pandemic is an existential crisis, but not for the reasons they believe. It is an existential crisis for the continued existence, or at least rise, of globalism, urbanism, statism, socialism, bureaucracies, etc. They don’t work. They kill economies, and they kill people. Most here know it, but many forget it long enough to vote for Democrats in this country.

The epidemic quickly became a pandemic when China, the epitome of socialist central control, let it escape its laboratories, then exported it around the world in short order, pretending nothing was happening. That’s globalism as practiced by an autocratic socialist country practices it. The problem was compounded by their having purchased the head of WHO, the organization whose primary purpose is preventing epidemics from becoming pandemics. They didn’t, having allowed their mission to be cooped by the interests of one country, that autocratic socialist behemoth China. One of the major perils of globalism.

Then, in this country, the response was entrusted to bureaucracies, again created to combat just this sort of threat. The bureaucracies, having long been coopted by the left, failed miserably. They failed the way that bureaucracies often do, by slowly broadening their missions, until they have lost sight of why they existed in the first place. They were worse than unprepared - the CDC had seized complete control of testing, then failed to provide it when most needed. What they did provide was inaccurate, and woefully inadequate in volume. Moreover bureaucrats, being entrusted to make the right decisions, often made the wrong ones. Often it was through the tunnel vision inherent to bureaucracies. Esp government bureaucracies. Much of their action was overreaction and overcaution based on their worst case wild eyed guessing. And being narrowly focused bureaucracies, they were incapable of seeing, or taking consideration of the big picture, that included the economic devastation that their wild eyed predictions caused. The bureaucracies, statism, and our movement towards centralized control failed miserably.

Compounding this, in this country, Democrat politicians failed miserably in this country, when compared to Republican ones. Their autocratic, statist, decisions were often counterproductive. Why would they require that those with COVID-19 be sent back to assisted living facilities. Apparently because the bureaucrats demanded it. One big factor appears to have been Medicaid reimbursement rates that only covered understaffed lower quality assisted living facilities, and not the hospitals they should have been in. Trillions lost in the entire country over millions saved because of micromanagement by bureaucrats. The trillions lost to the economy weren’t their problems. Their budgets were.

So, test, this was very much an existential threat to the left - because it proved to much of this country, and much of the world, that the policies pushed by the left kill people as well as economies.

Lurker21 said...

Netanyahu is going on trial again. Maybe they can add making "existential threat" the catch phrase of the century to the indictment.

Matt Sablan said...

"The mortality rate, based on the latest numbers, is around 0.5%, perhaps lower. "

-- Considering the large amount of asymptomatic people, I feel that believing it is below that threshold isn't exactly crazy.

MD Greene said...

The spouse, a Democrat, banned the NYT from the house last month.

"The Times wants the coronavirus to destroy the world because that will be bad for Trump."

Francisco D said...

I'm glad I'm old and won't live to see the end result. I am sad for the children and my Grandchildren who will never know what freedoms we had and which we so cavalierly let slip away from us.

I am afraid that you are right, DBQ.

Trump's election has caused the Left to take off their moderate masks and show the world that they are the same deranged leftists that you find on today's college campuses.

Dear corrupt left, go F yourselves said...

Australian researchers see virus design manipulation



Yancey Ward said...

I wrote it right at the beginning of the COVID-19 panic 3 million Americans were going to die in 2020, and that over 90% of them would be over the age of 65- even without the coronavirus. 3 million more will die next year, even if the coronavirus is gone by 2021, and then 3 million more will die in 2022. Each year, pneumonia and influenza kill around 45,000 people- literally each year on average. All of the data we have from the mortality rates of COVID-19 suggests that it is barely a blip in the mortality rates of the people over the age of 65, and not even a blip on the mortality rates of those under the age of 65.

What we are going to see is that there will be an excess of deaths this year of maybe a couple of hundred thousand, but a statitistically significant decrease in deaths over the next two years. How do I know this? Because of the high proportions of deaths in nursing homes- that alone tells you that the disease is mainly killing those who are dying anyway some time in the next two years.

Additionally, if the economic depression continues into 2021, you will start to see mortality rates rise significantly for all age demographics starting around next year, plus you will see births decline significantly. These are the sorts of things us "covidiots" warned against when the panic was at its most intense- that the panickers were over-reacting, and that they would end up causing more deaths in the long run.

narciso said...

it's the berlusconi treatment, they subjected him to that for 20 years,

JAORE said...

Yeah, don't carry guns. That would be bad, even if there are zero shootings.

Instead:
Break windows.
Camp out in streets.
Block all commerce in the area.
Assault any reporters that expose your tactics.
Crap on cop cars.
Wear black masks to hide your identity.
Mix up cement milkshakes.

Ann Althouse said...

"I don't think anyone ever expected it to kill more than 50%."

Remember "nuclear winter."

Consider all the radiation. And the inability to grow crops.

Josephbleau said...

"That is what's greatest about the pandemic“

Conan, what is best in the pandemic? To kill old conservative voters, to drive Death statistics before the public, and to hear the lamentations of the deplorables.

Josephbleau said...

The only half way good part about total nuclear war was that you got to tell your girlfriend you did not want to die a virgin. Granted, just a small plus.

Howard said...

Although helping to justify the Trump country anti-distancing anti-mask freedom march. it really is a horrible dirty trick that the Democrats are playing on you people, but somebody has to do it. It just needs to kill enough of you to turn off the senior citizen vote and throw the election to Biden.

I'm surprised she is not running a flag pole up Tommy Tuberville (Roy Moore v2.0) in Alabama. Perhaps her plate is already full of democrat projects.

Hey Skipper said...

“ Rory's comment: What we should have been able to figure out in March from the Diamond Princess experience -- in which every single person on the ship was tested and monitored. Less than 7% of passengers under age 50 caught the virus -- even though no measures like masks or distancing were imposed, and where people had repeated contact with one another for 2 weeks.

Can we put Rory in charge of the CDC?”

The USS Roosevelt says yes.

Dear corrupt left, go F yourselves said...

Yay Hillary wuhan scientist revenge virus! yay!

Timing is merely a happy coincidence.

Fritz said...

Matt Sablan said...
"The mortality rate, based on the latest numbers, is around 0.5%, perhaps lower. "

-- Considering the large amount of asymptomatic people, I feel that believing it is below that threshold isn't exactly crazy.


Latest numbers from the CDC is about 0.3% of symptomatic cases. They estimate 35% asymptomatic. Do the math. My guess is asymptomatic is closer to 50%, but we'll find out only when serological testing becomes widespread and accurate.

Did the NYT celebrate similarly when H1N1 killed 100,000 under Obama? That's a rhetorical question.

Yancey Ward said...

Even here in Tennessee, half of the COVID-19 deaths are in nursing homes, it is just that the state has a low case load that the deaths are only around 150 in such facilities.

In state after state, when you take a look, over half the deaths are in nursing homes- same in Europe. And most of the other deaths are in a similar sort of health demographic, but just living in a private residence.

Two huge errors were made- not doing more to protect those in nursing homes and hospitals and assuming that the entire population was even susceptible to catching and spreading the virus.

The latter mistake is one of the major problems with the early models. I suggested two months ago that less than half the population was even able to catch the disease with no changes in behavior- this argument was based on the Diamond Princess data. We aren't that susceptible to viruses of any kind, especially to those from families of viruses we have evolved with for thousands of years. If we were, we would literally be sick all the time.

Iman said...

Words from the NYT carry little weight. The extensive damage has been self-inflicted.

Lurker21 said...

The most patriotic thing that Americans can do right now is not to carry military-style rifles to a protest that shuts down their state legislature, or to spread baseless conspiracy theories online, or to pick fights in a supermarket over reasonable public health measures....

Yes, Karen.

I will leave spreading baseless conspiracy theories to the professional journalists from now on.

Francisco D said...

Yancey Ward said...3 million Americans were going to die in 2020, and that over 90% of them would be over the age of 65- even without the coronavirus. 3 million more will die next year, even if the coronavirus is gone

Good Lord! Don't tell Little Kenny B or Inga. They will have meltdowns.

CDC reported that 2.8 million Americans died in 2018. Wanna bet that just about 2.8 million Americans will die in 2020?

Thanks to the hysterics, idiots and agenda-driven media, this whole pandemic is an absolute joke.

Anthony said...

Two items of note this morning:

CDC Report: CFR not anywhere near the 3.5% they ran with. More like around 0.26%.

Oxford epidemiologist: ""I think the epidemic has largely come and is on its way out in this country so I think it would definitely be less than 1 in 1,000 (0.1%) and probably closer to 1 in 10,000 (0.01%)," Gupta said."

What a giant clusterf***.

Wisconsin Republican Alliance said...

As Hillary Clinton famously said: "I'm sick and tired of people who say that if you debate and disagree with this administration, somehow you're not patriotic. We need to stand up and say we're Americans, and we have the right to debate and disagree with any administration."

That's true.

Little known fact: She also said we had to do it in person, in large groups, during a pandemic and with long guns at our side just in case our dissent was not considered to be intimidating enough.

Larvell said...

When was this ever going to kill 5% of us? That’s like 17 million Americans. I must have missed that prediction.

LA_Bob said...

It is the panic over the "pandemic" that is the "greatest existential threat in our lifetimes".

Steven said...

Calling COVID-19 an "existential threat" in any degree is hysterical nonsense. Serious people will from now on refuse to take the New York Times seriously.

Sam L. said...

I despise, detest, and distrust the NYT. The WaPoo, too.

Iman said...

Democracy Dies in Dempanic...

Mr. T. said...

Wait why is the NYT calling us to honor this weekend those who have fallen when it just previously told us not to because Memorial Day weekend is a celebration of "white supremacy? "

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/23/opinion/sunday/army-base-names-confederacy-racism.html&ved=2ahUKEwj675nrrs_pAhVdhXIEHQZBB9AQFjAHegQIARAB&usg=AOvVaw2FMrJjRozG71o74Lr61rEm

LA_Bob said...

The 1957 flu pandemic killed some 116,000 Americans. In a nation of 172 million people. If you remove only the nursing home deaths from the current statistics, it's clear that real COVID-19 deaths are more of an irritant than a crisis in the great scheme of things.

And that's not counting deaths due to the lockdowns: the suicides and the neglected medical conditions set aside for the "COVID crisis". Fewer of these deaths would occur in a rational world.

And finally, if you follow this line of thinking, you can blame the dietary guidelines of the last half-century which led to more sugar and vegetable oil consumption vs less animal protein and fat. The rise in diabetes and (mostly) pre-diabetes has weakened the most effective defense we have against any pathogen, the human innate immune system, against which SARS-COV-2 is a 98-pound weakling.

n.n said...

It's possible. There may have been more than one strain. They may have been weaponized (e.g. virulence, aerosolization). What does the NYT know?

Jaq said...

Clearly we are at the “Every man for himself” phase of this. You can’t pretend that other people are going to try to stop the spread of something they think is no worse than a common cold. I resisted this because I know that there are people who don’t have the resources to isolate themselves and depend on herd hygiene to protect their lives. Too late to worry about that. We are in “Days of death without mourning” as they called it in the Black Plague. I can discard a $5 N95 mask I used to go into the supermarket once without worrying about the monthly budget, I can manage my own risk. That’s where we are.

“Existential threat” is way overblown. But since they raise the concept of climate change to an existential threat and this is worse probably than climate change, they are kind of stuck.

“panic is 'greatest existential threat in our lifetimes’.”

Panic is an existential threat? Then you better stop your bedwetting about what other people think and get to work taking care of your own future since it’s “every man’s an expert on infectious disease” and “Every man is responsible for himself” now.

Darkisland said...

Ann,

I don't think anyone really took nuclear winter seriously, did they? It was always just an existential hoax to frighten the rubes.

A quick look just now shows that, if it happened per the models, it was expected to kill "hundreds of millions or billions"

1990 population was 5.3 billion. So nuclear winter could have killed 2,5b and still not reached the 50%.

Not saying we wouldn't get our hair mussed. But not an existential threat to the human race. It would go on, seriously set back but humans would continue to exist.

John Henry

Ingachuck'stoothlessARM said...

Trump is an existential treat

... because there is no "H->" in 'treat'

Darkisland said...

In 1991 we ran a major, global, experiment on the nuclear winter model.

The experiment proved the model to be shit. As so oftn happens. As is happening now in the ChiVi scam.

John Henry

tcrosse said...

Well, if you're 26 years old maybe the pandemic is the greatest existential threat of your lifetime.

wendybar said...

The NYT's has an article out TODAY about how the military is White Supremacy. WHY does anybody read this trash. You may as well watch the ABC's News division show.....The View. Then they wonder why we are laughing at them. Talk about disrespectful Poor little activists have hurt feelings because of Trump.

CWJ said...

"And I can never stop feeling they'd never write the same thing if New York was just fine and Tulsa had a health crisis ravaging its city."

You're correct, MayBee. Despite their pretentions, the NYT and the network news are at heart local outlets.

wendybar said...

And Hillary, like clockwork comes out with a tweet today being Thankful for Killer Cuomo killing thousands of Nursing home patients!!! Progressives are on a roll!! To get more and more Americans to hate them.

Ingachuck'stoothlessARM said...

the Left's
constant, broad, facile usage of terms of absolute dire situations
( rape, racism, X-threats, etc )

has undermined the believability and potency of their complaint,

...and thus the urgency for rectification/ reparation

mandrewa said...

The media has almost never discussed the CO2 emissions issue honestly. One of the bigger deceits is that they pretend to present the views of scientists, where in fact all they are presenting is the politically correct viewpoint of a relatively small number of scientists, who coincidently are politically correct in the same manner as the journalists, and even for this small group of approved scientists if they wander away from politically correctness they immediately get dropped as news sources.

Of course the reality is that scientists disagree on many things and even if you think that global warming is predominately driven by human activity, which I think most do, then that still leaves enormous room for dispute about what exactly is happening and what is the pace of it. And somehow none of those disputes, or almost none, about this allegedly existential threat ever make it into the popular media.

Here's another prediction failure, by the politically correct, that the media is refusing to report on:

Tough times for arctic alarmists

J Severs said...

I sense displacement. The NYT perceives the re-election of President Trump as the true existential threat.

Rick said...

Maybe whatever is going on right now seems bigger than everything else, but the pandemic, at its worst, was only set to wipe out 5% of us,

Or less than 10% of that even if literally everyone contracts it:


The CDC also says its "best estimate" is that 0.4% of people who show symptoms and have Covid-19 will die,

Current CDC Estimates

I'm so old I remember when people putting made up numbers in a graph pretended they were facts and claimed anyone who deviated from their hysteria in any way was anti-science. I wonder how they will pretend they were right all along.

So how is that idiot Ken?

narciso said...

Tretyalov admitted as much

Bay Area Guy said...

Is it just me, or is anyone else sick of Fauci? The dude is so detached from realty. Very dangerous to have that charlatan setting or influencing national policy.

Highly intelligent, but dead wrong on critical questions.

Yancey Ward said...

Days of Death without mourning is the normal situation, Tim- the last two months are what is extraordinary.

Nichevo said...


Ann Althouse said...
"I don't think anyone ever expected it to kill more than 50%."

Remember "nuclear winter."

Consider all the radiation. And the inability to grow crops.

Consider that melons were grown in the soil at Hiroshima in 1946.


Darkisland said...
Ann,

I don't think anyone really took nuclear winter seriously, did they? It was always just an existential hoax to frighten the rubes.

JH, don't you get it? Ann is the rube!

She can't do (be bothered with, fer shurr, fer shurr) all that sciency stuff, so she believes what she's told, and she gets told what she's told in the high quality art media like the NYT. When they tell Ann to take off her clothes, she strips in a serious way.

Quaestor said...

As Hillary Clinton famously said...

Was that before or after her Uranium One check was cashed?

MadTownGuy said...

This raises the question: what exactly is an "existential threat" (or crisis)? I caught myself using it the other day and started trying to figure out what it is, other than a buzzword. There's a psychological definition of "existential crisis" but it would seem to fit the panic more so than the virus.

Tomcc said...

Things I did voluntarily in early March: stopped shaking hands, kept a minimum 3' distance from customers, used hand sanitizer frequently.
Things my employer did voluntarily in mid-March: reduced store hours and then closed all their locations a day later.
Then the governor decided to put a "stay at home" order into effect. Our state has fewer than 150 deaths. The county in which I live has 9 deaths. The county got permission to re-open (phase 1) as of a few days ago.
Instead of insisting on following the lock-down protocols that most states were implementing, we should have been more attuned to actual risks. I was and am supportive of the initial restrictions; but I think it's clear that they could have been loosened after the first 4-6 weeks. Will there be a reckoning? Not here, not ever.

bagoh20 said...

Any attempt at living a normal life in pursuit if happiness is an existential threat to everyone according to the media.

I was watching TV this morning with my woman, and I told her that the TV is nothing but women and women oriented content. I was only half serious. Over the next couple hours we watched a couple different networks as commercial after commercial featured no men in any role other than listening to women tell them things for their own good, or just being minor props in the background. Some commercials had numerous women and no men present at all, even though they were selling non-gender specific items. Every TV show advertised was a show by and for women. It got to be hilarious as each new example came on making my point in ever increasing ridiculousness. It was as if men had gone extinct. We both found it pretty funny and instructive about what they put out in the trough we feed from.

walter said...

The New York Times Tops 6 Million Subscribers as Ad Revenue Plummets
"In the first three months of the year, The New York Times Company added more digital subscribers than it had gained during any quarter since it started charging readers for online content in 2011. But that increase was driven by widespread interest in news of the coronavirus pandemic, which has ravaged the U.S. economy and cut deeply into The Times’s advertising revenue."
<
"Subscription revenue in the first quarter was aided by pricing changes. In February, some long-tenured digital subscribers experienced the first increase in the cost of a subscription to the core news product — to $17 from $15 every four weeks — since the establishment of the paywall nine years ago.

The number of Times readers surged in March. Ms. Levien said The Times had 240 million unique visitors internationally and 2.5 billion page views that month. According to Comscore, a measurement company, it had 153 million unique visitors that month in the United States — more than half of all adults. In January, before the World Health Organization had proposed the official name Covid-19 for the disease caused by the coronavirus, that number was 101 million."

bagoh20 said...



It's actually much lower as about half the deaths are people in nursing homes, and if you take them out, the fatality rate for all people not in nursing homes comes out to about 0.2%. When you know that, the last two months become a travesty of lies, fear mongering, egos, and rampant stupidity. Was that helping?

RigelDog said...

Five percent excess mortality?? It's irresponsible to even float that number. Latest figures nationwide show a .044 percent overall, and less than half of that figure for those who are not in very high risk categories. Over FIFTY PERCENT of all deaths have been suffered by those in Long Term Medical Facilities. Of the remaining deaths, very very few (@1-2%) have been suffered by those who don't have serious underlying health problems. Think morbid obesity, COPD, immuno-compromised, uncontrolled diabetes, heart failure. Put it together: We have broken the world over a disease that affects (except for about 2% of the total fatalities) only those who are vulnerable every year to a bad influenza outbreak. Think of the reduced number of deaths if/when we harden protections for those trapped in long-term medical care facilites.

RigelDog said...

Bagoh20 said: "It's actually much lower as about half the deaths are people in nursing homes, and if you take them out, the fatality rate for all people not in nursing homes comes out to about 0.2%. When you know that, the last two months become a travesty of lies, fear mongering, egos, and rampant stupidity."

I just posted the same basic figures. Over half of deaths are nursing home residents. Of the remaining, say, 46% of deaths, all but one or two percent of THOSE have been suffered by people with very obvious underlying health problems such as morbid obesity, serious heart and lung conditions, frail immune systems, profound genetic handicaps. So the .2% of those deaths outside of nursing homes actually translates, for the average person, to such a small number that it's literally more dangerous to drive to the grocery store than it is to contract Covid at the grocery store. And we broke America for this?

walter said...

Now imagine if nursing home residents weren't stupidly mismanaged.

Birkel said...

I am doing nothing but taking victory laps at this point.
All of the effort should have been toward protecting the vulnerable.
That includes people in nursing homes, of course.

The opposite of what Dem-Panic governors did.

And the rest of us should have (and should continue to) reduce our personal risk.

Karen B and Inga can hope for my death and call me names.
Reciprocated, as always.

Birkel said...

Tomcc,
What you are describing, RE: your behavioral changes, is why government lockdowns were unnecessary.

You were already reducing risk. You were appropriately cautious. So were your customers. So were the company and its bosses.

And then government added what value?

ANSWER:
Fuck all.

Steven said...

This raises the question: what exactly is an "existential threat" (or crisis)

Well, the usual definition is something that will end humanity's existence, thus "existential".

So, large celestial body impacts, a la the Chicxulub impact that caused the K-T mass extinction. A particularly large supervolcano eruption. A near-Earth gamma-ray burst, though we don't think we're near enough any candidate stars for it to happen any time soon. Climate change of a type and degree that sets off the theorized "clathrate gun", which may have been involved in past mass extinction events. An ahistorically-virulent plague, whether natural or manmade. Potentially, a smarter-than-human AI that realizes whatever goals are implicit in its programming are more easily achieved by wiping out humanity first.

Global thermonuclear war at least vaguely gestures in the right direction, though there's no real scenario for actually exterminating humanity with it. You can at best manage a major collapse of civilization, if you assume deliberate use of nuclear arsenals for the purpose of killing as many people as possible (instead of more plausible war plans).

A disease that doesn't manage to kill 10% of the people it manages to infect? That's an existential threat like snow is black.

wbfjrr2 said...

Bay Area Guy, why do you think Fauci is highly intelligent? I think he’s a tunnel vision government bureaucrat hack. For one thing he’s had the same job for 35 or so years. Who does that in the private sector, other than business owners? In my headhunting days, the government department clients I had were led by mediocrities, and Fauci is a good example.

I also find him duplicitous and perverse in his pronouncements and the wording he uses. He’s vague at best if not openly negative on any possible good news or ideas worth trying and apocalyptic on anything he wants to make damaging, such as proclaiming wuhan is “10 times more deadly than the flu!” Based on bullshit numbers.

Ever hear him tell the governors it was/is (some are still doing it) lethal to send wuhan diseased into LTC facilities? I haven’t either.

He’s a deep stater relentlessly trying to drag this disastrous policy he recommended out for as long as possible to to as much damage as possible. I consider him an enemy of the American people, or just a dumb shit. Maybe both.

Birx isn’t much better.

Iman said...

The NYT is not fit even to line a birdcage. A dogshit publication with a selective inbred readership...

https://www.wibc.com/blogs/tony-katz/a-virus-worse-than-covid-19/

John henry said...

Fauci's name is on about 100 vaccine patents.

If any of them hit the market he makes bank.

Not saying he is against a ChiVi cure or, if he is, this is the reason.

Just pointing out that a cure (like hydroxychloroquine, if it is a cure) costs him money.

He has a conflict. Is that influencing his "science"?

I can't read his mind. Only he knows. And even he may not know. It may be a subconscious influence.

John Henry

Tomcc said...

One of (and maybe the only) reason that I was in favor of the initial "stay home" restrictions was because we have so little knowledge of how this virus spreads. Specifically, whether asymptomatic people are likely to infect others. I've not seen any definitive information on this question. Today, I came across this from the NIH by way of captainsjournal.com: Asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 Carriers Are Not Very Contagious

Norpois said...

Could someone explain why the NYT is allowed to publish the names and ages of Covid victims without their families consent, and without violation of the HIPPAA thing? is it because they are dead? is it because this is the NYT? I understand they are replicating the famous "death roll" the 3 networks used at the end of the evening news broadcast, during the Vietnam war. Where did the Times get these names? From state records? Is that legal Just asking....

Birkel said...

Tomcc,
You supported a policy that could not be sustained. How would the end game play out? Would we stay at home forever? I have never heard anybody give any answer for what would come after.

Also, it was guaranteed to impoverish people.

I cannot understand the thought process.

SensibleCitizen said...

An existential threat is a threat to our existence. As in depopulating the planet of human beings. It has at worst put a minuscule dent in the population of elderly humans.

C19 is not an existential threat. The NYT needs to reexamine its sense of proportion on that one.