May 18, 2020

"Stocks climbed after encouraging data about the first coronavirus vaccine tested in people."

"The drug maker Moderna said Monday that the first coronavirus vaccine to be tested in people appears to be safe and able to stimulate an immune response against the virus," the NYT reports.

So good to get good news!

The Dow Jones is up 800+ points.

61 comments:

Big Mike said...

You still trust things written in the New York Times? Why? Used to be you could trust only box scores, but now there are no box scores.

tcrosse said...

Let's hope Trump doesn't "tout" it.

narciso said...

as one of our commenters, anne I am, have noted they aren't using the largest possible dose of the vaccine, they are using a very small sample, is it a randomized double blind test, like they insist with the hcq zpak cocktail, why not,

Ken B said...

Cue Bernie to rant about evil pharma companies.

Ken B said...

Seriously, the Sanders AOC crowd have wanted to destroy the pharma industry for a long time now. Could there be a worse policy?

Temujin said...

If and when a vaccine is shown to be fully effective, you will see a boom in this country. Like a rocket ship. Even though it'll take time to get clearance for the general public, and time to test for side effects, time to produce, distribute, and inject into the mass of the population, even with all that, you will see people walking with a spring in their step, a bounce in their walk, smiling, even taking off their masks. Going out to restaurants. Soon after that...going to games, plays, air flights, hotels....

We will be back in bidness. It'll happen.

And the media will still be slinging downer stories. About who got left behind. Why some get the vaccine first and others do not. Why it's still Trump's fault that the virus happened at all. Journos have loved this downer period. It fits their world view.

Owen said...

Fingers crossed. Where is the antibody test so we can all learn that we’ve already had this damn thing?

roesch/voltaire said...

I mentioned MRNA on this blog when I was buying it at$25; I thought it along, with INO,it showed promise-- since retiring I have time to do a small amount of day trading-- and sold today on the news, which we must remember is a trial of only 8 people but promising. There are more small companies that are also in the development process-a hopeful sign.

Yancey Ward said...

It isn't a big hurdle to generate an "immune response" to an artificial antigen- it is basically trivial to do. The big hurdle is to generate an immune response that then makes one immune to the actual virus- this is a harder thing to do than is widely believed.

The good news here is that Moderna's approach is the one that is most likely to generate a broadly available vaccine quickly (as in by the end of the year). So, you need the next phase results to really get excited here- or, at least, I do need to see them. The things you are looking for is does this convey immunity to the virus and what percentage of people do develop such useful immunity? I will just warn you that the typical results for such trials are "no" and "less than 30%, at least in the first innoculation".

Inga said...

That IS good news! As I said the other day, this WILL be over one day, probably sooner rather than later and all the angst about the social distancing was probably overblown. It saved countless lives and gave scientists and the medical world time to understand this virus better and develop treatments and a vaccine. People need to be patient and trust that things will get better.

I'm Not Sure said...

"The Dow Jones is up 800+ points."

Women and Democrats hardest hit.

Francisco D said...

Hope springs eternal for a V-shaped economic recovery, but be patient.

I was expecting a stock market correction in early 2021, but the WuFlu brought it on earlier and far stronger. Now I expect another Trump election boom like in 2016.

Dow 35,000 by 2022!

DanTheMan said...

>>If and when a vaccine is shown to be fully effective, you will see a boom in this country.

And the plaintiff's bar will be ready to sue them into bankruptcy if *anybody* who takes the vaccine dies (no matter how tenuous the relationship to the vaccine, if any).



narciso said...

it seems an awfully small sample, one can't draw conclusions from, one hopes more openings will ameliorate the 30 million plus unemployed,

Lucien said...

Won't all of our petty tyrants now argue that a vaccine is closer, and double down on their ukases ordering people not to exercise their rights: "We're almost there, if we can just blindly obey orders for a little longer"?

Bay Area Guy said...

NYT: "Stocks climbed after encouraging data about the first coronavirus vaccine tested in people."


Better headline:

"Stocks climbed -- we're not sure why and won't speculate"

Tomorrow or the next day, or the next, the stock market may decline, and, of course, the NYT won't blame the decline on the vaccine.

They know who the gullible morons are to push a narrative:

If bad news, blame Trump!

If good news, take credit with stuff we like!

narciso said...

some news about insole in there as well


https://legalinsurrection.com/2020/05/wuhan-virus-watch-now-gov-cuomo-is-complaining-there-are-too-many-unused-tests/#comments

Yancey Ward said...

If you want to read more, Derek Lowe is always my go-to suggestion for anything pharmaceutical. I have been reading him for going on two decades.

bagoh20 said...

I have a lot invested, but since it went south I have refused to even look into where it's at. I will never sell during a correction again. The money is just fine. I doesn't bet bored or hungry for companionship. It can just sit there until it grows up, just like a lot of people.

stevew said...

Good news. Is anyone seizing on this news for nefarious purposes? I will take this opportunity to hope that our nanny statists don't use this news to justify continuing the lockdown until a vaccine is widely available. Some will, of course.

Howard said...

Another batch of elitist prog coastal libbers to the rescue.

Can Of Cheese for Hunter said...

Democratics, the on-air talent at MSDNC, Maddow, Drudge, and Wuhan Hillary hardest hit.

Original Mike said...

Yesterday, I started going through my pile of Wall Street Journals that collected while we were in New Zealand and, when we got home, I just tossed them on the pile unread because the news was so depressing. Started in late January and got through to March 1. It's fascinating reading the news this way with hind sight. February was all, 'no real risk to the U.S. from the virus' and 'Bernie is the nominee'. Last week of February the shit hit the fan and the Dow dropped 12%.

Kai Akker said...

"I mentioned MRNA on this blog when I was buying it at$25; ... and sold today on the news" --R/V

In the 80s or 90s, then. Very nice going!

A possible virus vaccine -- good news, to whatever extent it's real -- but also exactly the kind of news that can top a rally in these circumstances. The back-to-normal rally the market has been having.

DJIA up +820 = +3.48% at 12:45 pm

But that's not even back to its rally peak of 3 weeks ago.

Fwiw:

AMGN red, - 1.40%
AMZN + 0.42%
CAT + 5.02%
MRK red, - 0.41%
MCD + 3.14%
NFLX red, - 0.41%
PG + 1.27%

Tomcc said...

It is an encouraging development, but way too soon to celebrate. "Sell on the news" seems like a good strategy.

mandrewa said...

So why isn't the good news about hydroxychloroquine plus zinc plus azithromycin being reported?

traditionalguy said...

Hey guys. What will stop the Wuhan Bio-weapon Lab from attacking us again with a new and improved flu? Asking for a friend.

Tomcc said...

In fact, if you scratch at the report, you'll see some shakiness at its foundation.
(Restating Yancey Ward above)

cubanbob said...

Assuming this or other vaccines in the works actually do work it will be a boon in across the board vaccinations. I suspect the corona virus will mutate and hence there will be either yearly or every several years a new vaccine needed. If that is the case then perhaps it can be coupled with the flu vaccine as well. Wonder what the anti-vaxers will claim once the corona vaccine comes out.

DavidUW said...

Ignore the grade 3 adverse events.

RNB said...

"Stocks fell on the announcement that Saturn has 81 moons, instead of 82, as previously thought."

William said...

Some Moderna scientist named Ji (not to be confused with President Xi of China) announced on CNBC that the therapeutic might be able to be put into production and use within three months....If so, this will be incredibly bad news for our republic. It's possible that if an effective treatment or vaccine becomes available and the economy recovers that Trump will be re-elected. Who can even fathom the damage Trump will do to our country if he is able to institute another four years of peace and prosperity. Let's hope that this doesn't pan out. More death and unemployment is what our country needs at this juncture.

Leland said...

It's Monday. We get three days of good to ok news. By Thursday, CNN/MSNBC/NPR will make sure you are in despair for the weekend.

Eric said...

But Dr. Fauci says that there is a chance that there won't be a vaccine, so we should plan for that.

TreeJoe said...

I can't stand news like this becauase it's written about my industry. Let's clarify:

- Moderna, who has yet to develop or commercialize any successful new therapies in it's 10 year history (but has done alot of promising stuff!), is working on an mRNA Covid-19 vaccine

- To date, no vaccines have been successfully developed for any coronavirus

- Moderna's news is that in a trial of many more than 8 patients they tested 8 patients and found all 8 developed sufficient antibody response similar to a recovered COVID-19 subject. And their side effects in the low and medium dose arms of the study were similar to normal vaccination (how they determined that sufficiently on 8 patients is unclear).

- They are now moving into a 600 patient trial

.....Don't get me wrong, good news, but like one of the earliest stages of good news.

William said...

The mere allegation that Pompeo may have used a subordinate to pick up his dry cleaning is a chilling example of the creeping fascism that we are currently living in. It's hard to imagine Hillary asking Huma to do anything for her outside of Huma's official duties. Let's hope that this treatment doesn't pan out. If we don't elect Biden, who knows where this creeping fascism will stop. Pretty soon Pompeo will be making you or your children to pick up his dog doo doo and you won't be allowed to wear a face mask during this procedure.

daskol said...

With this kind of volatility in the market, I wish I were day trading. So many stocks in play. OTOH, it does not feel comfortable just owning stocks in this market, which seems more animal spirit-motivated even than usual.

Drago said...

Howard: "Another batch of elitist prog coastal libbers to the rescue."

The same "batch" that in 2014 funded the Wuhan lab in China in its corona virus testing.......and the same "batch" that developed the epidemic "model" that is now proven to have been and be galactically inaccurate over decades.

Uh, hmm, gee, thanks?

LA_Bob said...

Leland said, "It's Monday. We get three days of good to ok news. By Thursday, CNN/MSNBC/NPR will make sure you are in despair for the weekend."

So true. As others have said, the "good news" about the "promising vaccine" will fade into the "bad news" that it's very early, Moderna's poor track record, no successful anti-coronavirus vaccine ever, etc, etc....

And the DJIA will tank 1000pts on the despair.

I'm thinking about buying some hedges especially as we're finally close to the 200 day moving average on the S&P.

Gusty Winds said...

I'm certainly not and anti-vaxer. I appreciate the lives saved. But have we ever hurriedly developed a vaccine based on this much false data and propaganda while holding people's freedom and financial well being hostage?

How do you know they're not going to just order 300 Million doses of sugar pills?

Louie the Looper said...

Maybe the Dow is up because it’s Monday. Maybe it’s up because more businesses are opening without bad effects. Maybe there is no good reason.

Here is CNN’s take:

So what has investors so giddy?

Two things: 1) A promising vaccine trial and 2) Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said the Fed would take more action to stimulate the economy.

OK. Fine. But let's get real. A vaccine is still a long way away, and there's a big difference between a promising trial and getting the disease under control.

And Powell didn't actually say anything on "60 Minutes" that he hasn't said before. The Fed will do what it can to keep the economy afloat. But the economic destruction is real and long lasting, Powell said. We could be in this mess for years.

Sorry to be a downer. Go take some more Investors Have Lost Their Minds and buy, buy, buy!

Original Mike said...

Blogger bagoh20 said..."I have a lot invested, but since it went south I have refused to even look into where it's at. I will never sell during a correction again. The money is just fine. I doesn't bet bored or hungry for companionship. It can just sit there until it grows up, just like a lot of people."

I agree. I never have and never will sell into a correction.

daskol said...

Hedges: going long volatility via call options on the VIX or buying puts on the S&P ETFs is going to be a lot cheaper this week than it's been in a while. Not cheap enough to easily profit off the smaller drops, but cheap enough that you can get yourself decent tail risk protection for a few hundred basis points of your equity portfolio. If you buy VIX around $40 you will have very valuable positions if the market drops in the 5-10% over a few days. The VIX options are tied to the futures so you need to ladder them to maintain such "insurance" over the next few months. This is the type of position that cost almost nothing back in February because of how long we'd gone with low volatility.

320Busdriver said...

Well day trading the airlines might be profitable today with UAL and SAVE up 21 & 24% respectively. All are up double digits.

320Busdriver said...

Maybe the news that Covid death rate for 60 and under is at or below the flu @.1. That’s good news.

William said...

As I understand the Moderna's rep on CNBC this morning, this is not a vaccine but rather some kind of antibody that prevents the host from being infected for three months or more. It is isn't a vaccine except that it works as one for a while and if shown to be effective, can be put into production in short order without the legnthy prep time required for a vaccine. If it pans out, this is good news....Old saying: The stock market can afford to be wrong longer than you can afford to be right. Maybe this won't pan out, but something will and the market will go up. Or not.

Kai Akker said...

No? No selling into a correction? OK then. When Apple makes a new high, sell. Sell AAPL, sell tech, sell the DJIA. This was the most overvalued market in our history. It is a selling opportunity like most of us will never see again. Maybe that rains on the parade today? Or maybe not. But the most overvalued market in our history, and the most wrenching dislocation in our economy, do not combine into a prescription for stock profits.

I personally think waiting for AAPL could make you too late on the other sales. But I'm fitting the advice into the preferences. You're welcome!! ; )

Bay Area Guy said...

"Go take some more Investors Have Lost Their Minds and buy, buy, buy!"

Heh! My favorite all-time stock broker - Frank T - was an ex-Marine, who would call me up with high volume excitable pitch about the day's market and then end with "buy! buy! buy! - I mean sell!"

I like my new guy, but I wish I still had Frank T.

Original Mike said...

I realize there is an exception to my belief in not selling into a correction. In 2008 and converted a lot of IRA assets to a Roth. That was lucrative.

Original Mike said...

If the market really takes it on the chin this year, I'll do more IRA-to-Roth conversions.

Titus said...

Cambridge company, natch.

bagoh20 said...

I don't do much political donating, but I will be donating to a number of campaigns to challenge some current Democrat governors. Michigan's for one. She is a horrid creature unfit for power, but she is not the only one.

Yancey Ward said...

Back in late March through the first two weeks of April, I sold over $62,000 worth of out of the money puts that expire between July and October. I had sold them with the idea that they were at strike prices I wouldn't mind owning the underlying securities if the market tanked into that kind of territory. I just closed out the positions on those that expire in July and August for 7% of what I sold them for just a month ago. I could close out the rest of them for about 40% of what I sold those for, but am going to let them ride for now. This is about the easiest $50K I have ever made.

narciso said...

you ask for a miracle, theo,

https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2020/05/18/absolutely-nuts-court-appointed-amicus-prosecutor-requests-briefing-schedule-oral-arguments-and-possible-witness-fact-finding-in-flynn-case/

narciso said...

re the afore mentioned zombie health director,


https://theothermccain.com/2020/05/18/trust-the-health-experts/#disqus_thread

Andrew said...

Lol. The President just announced that he is taking HCQ regularly. The news media is going nuts. Good times.

walter said...

Sadly, it's lower than end of April.

I'm Not Sure said...

He could tell them he bathes regularly and the news media would go nuts.

Original Mike said...

"Sadly, it's lower than end of April."

Sad only if you need to sell. Which speaks to perhaps the most important principle of investing: hold the next three years of necessary spending in cash.

DavidUW said...

It's not an antibody.

It's a mRNA-based vaccine.
mRNA is what cells use to code for protein. (DNA makes RNA makes protein).
The goal is to "trick" some cells into making viral proteins that will generate neutralizing antibodies to the virus in people.

Not only has this been tested in a few people, but the entire approach has never successfully created a vaccine to date. Usually vaccines use live or dead viruses to generate the immune response.

Could it work now? sure. or not.

Tomcc said...

5/19
"...stocks took a leg lower on Tuesday after a report late in the trading day questioned the significance of the data...
Such a fickle institution!