Althouse: "According to a CNN poll released this week, nearly three-quarters of Democrats said the worst of the crisis is still ahead of us..."

May 15, 2020

"According to a CNN poll released this week, nearly three-quarters of Democrats said the worst of the crisis is still ahead of us..."

"... while only about a quarter of Republicans said the same. This marked a 15 percentage-point drop among Democrats since CNN last asked the question in April, and a 44-point drop among Republicans. A YouGov/Economist poll also found a similar divide this week; 58 percent of Democrats said the pandemic is going to get worse compared with only 20 percent of Republicans...."

FiveThirtyEight reports.

Why should predictions about what a virus will do have so much to do with political orientation? I might be missing something, but I see 2 types of reasoning:

1. Optimism or pessimism is a psychological orientation that is more fundamental than political affiliation. It affects which party you feel drawn to and how you see the virus going in the future. Pessimists picture things going wrong, so they want more help from the government, and the Democrats are there to offer to help. Optimists think they can make good things happen and the Republicans offer to get government out of the way.

2. A Republican is in the White House, and Democrats don't trust him and assume he's screwing things up, so they're more likely to picture bad things happening in the future. There's also wishful thinking: They want him to fail, and more death and sickness is something that — in a perverse and unacknowledged way — they want. Republicans are the opposite. They're more able to trust Trump, and the ordinary wishful thinking that the virus will go away aligns nicely with the hope that Trump will triumph.

214 comments:

1 – 200 of 214 Newer› Newest»

Shouting Thomas said...: Let me repeat.

This panic (not the pandemic) was fabricated by the Democratic Party and the media to bring down the economy to damage Trump.

So, the Democrats favor a campaign of protracted economic sabotage.

Supporters of President Trump oppose this campaign of economic sabotage because we want Trump to be re-elected.

It’s simple.; 5/15/20, 11:24 AM
DanTheMan said...: >>They want him to fail, and more death and sickness is something that — in a perverse and unacknowledged way — they want.

Perverse, yes.
Unacknowledged, no.; 5/15/20, 11:25 AM
Left Bank of the Charles said...: Could just be the difference between living in a city and living outside a city.; 5/15/20, 11:26 AM
Achilles said...: So most democrats are stupid and immune to information.; 5/15/20, 11:26 AM
Matt Harris said...: I am pretty sure the crisis has passed, if it was even a crisis in the first place.; 5/15/20, 11:28 AM
Achilles said...: Why should predictions about what a virus will do have so much to do with political orientation? I might be missing something, but I see 2 types of reasoning:

It had nothing to do with political reasoning. It had everything to do with the types of people that vote for democrats vs. the types of people that vote for republicans.

The types of people that vote for democrats care nothing about actual numbers or facts. They use "models" that confirm their biases. Their biases are that they should have power over everyone else.

The people that vote for republicans want to make their own decisions and inform themselves.

One of these POV's is conducive to a free society and the other is not.; 5/15/20, 11:29 AM
TheOne Who Is Not Obeyed said...: It's simple, really - the Dems are the feminist, "mommy" party where being neurotically frightened of possible scary things is now expected and inculcated. The GOP remains the "daddy" party where neurotic, easily frightened feminism is less welcome and bravery and bravado are expected.

This whole virus episode shows how deeply the feminist weakening of the US population has progressed. This weakening is especially evident in government institutions from health departments to universities.; 5/15/20, 11:31 AM
William said...: I'm not famous for my sunny outlook, but what with the coming of sunny weather I'm pretty sure things will get better. We will no for certain sometime soon.....Not that it will matter. I live in NYC, the epicenter of the virus. DeBlasio and Cuomo were slow and wrong footed in their responses, but in these precincts Trump takes the fall. If and when things get better it will be due to the inspiring leadership of Cuomo. (I don't think even the Dems here take much comfort in DeBlasio.); 5/15/20, 11:31 AM
wild chicken said...: Yeah the spouse is still all gloomy doomer
Still. Says he's worried about his daughter the RN. And Trump's nOt DoInG aNyThInG!!

She doesn't seem worried though.

I keep wondering if it's really me he hated.; 5/15/20, 11:31 AM
Amexpat said...: Why should predictions about what a virus will do have so much to do with political orientation?

Could be where people get their information.; 5/15/20, 11:32 AM
rehajm said...: Althousinas did a good job with this yesterday. To review: Democrats believe and trust that government is the solution to the problem. Disobeying government orders will lead to catastrophic outcomes. For Republicans, government is the problem.

Think a wise old man said something like that once...; 5/15/20, 11:33 AM
Achilles said...: Cuomo killed my mom."

The panic nazi's have a lot to answer for.; 5/15/20, 11:35 AM
Big Mike said...: They want him to fail, and more death and sickness is something that — in a perverse and unacknowledged way — they want.

And if it helps to generate more death and sickness by forcing elderly care centers to take in people testing positive for coronavirus, that’s okay too.; 5/15/20, 11:37 AM
Dave Begley said...: CNN posts a poll about predictions about future events. Based on what?

I predict that Creighton will be in the Final Four next season. How's that for a prediction?

We will all burn up from climate change in 2100. How's that?; 5/15/20, 11:38 AM
n.n said...: A liberal orientation and a conservative response. That said, Americans are prudent and bold: conservative orientation and a liberal response. Life is an exercise in risk management. Live.; 5/15/20, 11:38 AM
Tim said...: Democrats WANT to continue the infections/lockdown as it is their only chance to drag Senile Joe across the finish line.; 5/15/20, 11:38 AM
The Bergall said...: A poll on unknowns?.................sheesh.

No one knows.....; 5/15/20, 11:38 AM
Richard Dolan said...: You don't take into account the geographical distribution of Dems and Reps. NYC, for example, is heavily Dem; so is CA. North Dakota, not so much. Dems are concentrated in urban areas; Reps are not. SO the differing attitudes are not only (perhaps not entirely) based on irrational partisanship. May just reflect what each team is seeing in its own backyard.; 5/15/20, 11:41 AM
Mike (MJB Wolf) said...: We are only halfway to the number of deaths from the Hong Kong Flu of 1969. You old(er) timers can compare and contrast current events with that memorable year. Why do we have to kill the economy for what amounts to a severe flu year? Were all the schools shut that year? Did all events cancel? Was the media setting there hair on fire?; 5/15/20, 11:41 AM
Anne in Rockwall, TX said...: " They want him to fail, and more death and sickness is something that — in a perverse and unacknowledged way — they want."

Quoted for truth.; 5/15/20, 11:42 AM
Big Mike said...: @Althouse, during the eight years of the Obama administration are you aware of any times where Republicans deliberately set out to set the President up for failure? Much less set him up for failure at the cost of American lives? I’m aware of numerous instances where we expected the nincompoop to fail, and some perhaps wished it on him, but did anybody set out to sabotage him at the cost of American lives?

Contrast with the Trump administration.; 5/15/20, 11:45 AM
Drago said...: "...while only about a quarter of Republicans said the same. This marked a 15 percentage-point drop among Democrats since CNN last asked the question in April, and a 44-point drop among Republicans."

As the Karen's Of Althouse will tell you, 15% of democrats have now decided to join the republican mass murderers and should suffer the same fate.; 5/15/20, 11:46 AM
Bay Area Guy said...: These delusional fuckheads want to continue the lockdown. It's that simple. Their govt jobs are safe (for now), and they give no thought to the blue collar folks who have to show up to work, not in their pajamas on the laptop, but at real work sites to do real work.

Big mistake to let Dems control your public health and/or your livelihoods.; 5/15/20, 11:46 AM
Big Mike said...: And I might add, if the poll is correct then 3/4 of the Democrat rank and file are going to be disappointed that more Americans aren’t dying as they really supposed to.; 5/15/20, 11:47 AM
Original Mike said...: "Pessimists picture things going wrong, so they want more help from the government, and the Democrats are there to offer to help."

When do they figure out that Democrats actually make things worse?; 5/15/20, 11:50 AM
Mark said...: Hope vs. nihilism.

Traditional belief vs. atheistic exhistentialism.; 5/15/20, 11:52 AM
doctrev said...: 3. They're probably right. Republicans live in "flyover" states with low population density and few liberals in power. Most of them can get back to work producing with little effort, and never really needed to fear mass outbreaks. They might need bailouts, but they're the least endangered by the notion of gridlock in Congress.

Meanwhile, Democrats live in urban shitholes with high population density and a governing class that will happily sacrifice them if it means weakening Orange Man. White, minority, it doesn't matter. If you're not part of the elite, you're collateral damage at best. Even if the lockdowns are relaxed, these populations have reason to fear new outbreaks and the lockdowns snapping back into place. They needed bailouts even before this, and their states will collapse into anarchy without them. Just look at Cuomo trying to extort tax money out of the dumb bastards who tried to volunteer in New York!

It's a rare case where liberals and conservatives are both right. Enjoy it, Professor!; 5/15/20, 11:52 AM
I Have Misplaced My Pants said...: Leftists = emotional thinkers and drama addicts who are animated by seeing danger drama and injustice everywhere.

Someone, maybe Instapundit, linked to a BBC article about five ways the world is screwed other than the CV.

Amazingly I thought here we were at the pinnacle of human achievement with the best yet to be. A broken and fallen world full of pain but mostly a creative and innovative world that gets better with every generation.

Habits of mind determine perceived reality.; 5/15/20, 11:56 AM
Kirk Parker said...: Don't know if this should be #3, or just a further elaboration of #1 and #2:

Democrats are more easily led, and perhaps rightly so because they aren't as competent... so they feel unable to cope with the vicissitudes of life relying on their own abilities, and gravitate toward Big Nanny to protect them.

(Gee isn't this fun?); 5/15/20, 11:58 AM
YoungHegelian said...: There's another gap here: gender.

Among women, they say almost two to one that the worst is yet to come.

This agrees with my anecdotal experience. It's almost been fun watching a whole suburb full of upper-middle class liberal white women turn into preppers overnight. Buying out all the flour & even the dried beans! C'mon!; 5/15/20, 11:58 AM
Wa St Blogger said...: My 2 reasons:

1. Those who lean right are more inclined to self-reliance. Those who lean left are more inclined to safety. Those on the right don't fear life, those on the left want to be protected. If there is a risk, the ones on the left will support a defensive stance.

2. It might also just be a reflection on where one gets his or her news.; 5/15/20, 11:59 AM
Bilwick said...: It's the corollary to "Never Let a Crisis Go to Waste"--"Keep the crisis going to keep the statism going." If "War is the Health of the State," the War on the Coronavirus has become the health of the 21st Century State.

That said, I admit I know about as much about biomedical science as your average "liberal" knows about economics, or Inga knows about Aristotelian logic. So I could wake up tomorrow and find everyone dead from the Kung Flu--just before I expire, too. But if you expect me to trust
"liberals" (i.e., "tax-happy, coercion-addicted, power-tripping government humpers and State fellators") on pretty much anything . . . well, a first step to trust might be to take their hands off my wallet and stop trying to disarm me. I tend not to trust people who are threatening me. I'm funny that way.; 5/15/20, 11:59 AM
tim maguire said...: I want to see other metrics--are most of the Democrats academics and white collar workers who haven't suffered much? Have more Republicans lost earnings? Do more Democrats live in high-impact areas like NYC while more Republicans live in more rural spaces?

I can think of lots of non-political reasons for a poll to show a political divide.; 5/15/20, 12:00 PM
Bob Boyd said...: I feel much better about the future since I started my Lysol injections. Feels like I'm more in control, you know? More proactive. And I don't even have the fucking virus yet. But when it does show up, it ain't gonna feel welcome, not my chest, not if I have anything to say about it. Those viruses are going to take one look at my lungs and say, "Hell no!" and just turn around and leave. That's why I don't wear a mask. I don't wanna slow 'em down on their way to go find something a little pinker.
And don't fuck around trying to find an arm vein either. Go right between the ribs, straight into the lungs! Feel the burn, right? It's like one of those Jane Fonda ass workouts only in your chest. Highly recommend!; 5/15/20, 12:01 PM
Lyssa said...: The funny thing about this is that it should be falsifiable in a few weeks or months, but it won’t be.; 5/15/20, 12:02 PM
rcocean said...: Your reason (2) *Should* make no sense, since Dr. Fuaci and the top level CDC employees are NOT trump appointees and its the big State Democrat Governors who are running the show now. Almost every state with large CV Deaths is Democrat run. Michigan, Illinois, CA, NY, Mass, DC, NJ, Conn, etc. So, if you don't "trust Trump" - it doesn't really matter.

BUT we're talking Democrats here. The stupidest people in the USA. So, I think Althouse is overthinking it. Your typical Democrat just believes whatever ABC/NBC/CBS/PBS/CNN/WaPo or "the View" tells him. He follows the party line. And that party line is now "gloom and doom". So, he says the expected thing, its all black and things will get worse.

BTW, if Biden get elected in November 2020, miraculously the skies will clear, the birds will sing, and all the CV-19 problems will be A-OK. Trust me, that's how the MSM will react.; 5/15/20, 12:07 PM
rcocean said...: I'll never forget how the homeless crisis and the ethics in Government problem disappeared from the nightly news in Jan 1993. Clinton performed miracles his first day in office!; 5/15/20, 12:08 PM
RMc said...: Die, deplorables, die!; 5/15/20, 12:09 PM
SeanF said...: So 17% of Democrats and %5 of Republicans think the crisis is going to get worse but don't think the pandemic is going to get worse.

That's interesting.; 5/15/20, 12:10 PM
Kevin said...: Are these the same people who said Trump was definitely, positively, unquestionably a Russian Agent?

Because I think we can take their grasp on reality with a dump truck load of salt.; 5/15/20, 12:11 PM
Oso Negro said...: I don't think the pandemic is going to get worse. But I have the terrible fear that the hysteria-fueled response to the pandemic is going to continue to cause economic damage for years to come. So are lives are changed. Plus, a number of people are permanently infused with anxiety from the non-stop fear-mongering and they will permanently change their behavior. Sordid details following.; 5/15/20, 12:11 PM
Retail Lawyer said...: I'm optimistic, but not where government is concerned. We are deep into the government incompetence era. Obamacare, High Speed Rail, The Bay Bridge, Wuhan Virus response at all levels. . .; 5/15/20, 12:14 PM
traditionalguy said...: The only crisis going on is DJT putting Americans first, ahead of ChiComs and the works of the Global first with no national borders guys that DJT is now wiping out. The Chinese bio-weapon is those America haters last ditch bombing of the USA to stop their certain demise if DJT gets another 4 years. So the Trump voters see a victory over the Chinese bio-weapon as a sure thing. The Dems see disaster by virus as their last hope.; 5/15/20, 12:18 PM
Sebastian said...: "They want him to fail, and more death and sickness is something that — in a perverse and unacknowledged way — they want. Republicans are the opposite."

When did Republicans ever want "more death and sickness," at the expense of the country and their fellow Americans, just because they wanted a Dem president to fail?; 5/15/20, 12:21 PM
Leora said...: I have a friend who went to visit her son in another state and was terrified of the Maryland $5,000 fine for unnecessary travel (since rescinded). Making rules you couldn't possibly enforce brings government into disrepute.; 5/15/20, 12:23 PM
JAORE said...: How could it possibly get worse? All Wisconsin voters and their families are dead. All the residents of Georgia are dead! All those in the Sunshine State of Florida are DEAD!!!!! *

How many more states must be sacrificed?

* Science is uncharacteristically silent on why there are no deaths in Colorado (for one).; 5/15/20, 12:23 PM
Tom T. said...: Trump is going to get reelected based on his successful handling of the virus. That's what these people see as "the worst is yet to come."; 5/15/20, 12:26 PM
Original Mike said...: "According to a CNN poll released this week, nearly three-quarters of Democrats said the worst of the crisis is still ahead of us..."
"... while only about a quarter of Republicans said the same."

What always surprises me on polls is that 80% don't answer "I don't know", because that would be the proper answer.; 5/15/20, 12:28 PM
Michael K said...: As the blue state lockdown continues into summer, I wonder what it will do to U-Haul rates ?

CA to TX are already high. Pretty soon all the U Hauls will be in red states.; 5/15/20, 12:30 PM
chuck said...: Democrats are wish casting. They want things to get worse because Orange Man bad.; 5/15/20, 12:30 PM
CJinPA said...: Can't add anything to points 1 and 2 in the post. Except to note that I can't add anything.; 5/15/20, 12:31 PM
Lucien said...: The poll question seems to have been about whether the worst of the pandemic was yet to come (in the US, I presume) not about resulting economic issues; but I cannot be sure none of the respondents included both as part of the “crisis”.; 5/15/20, 12:32 PM
gspencer said...: Democrats have too many screws rattling around inside their skulls. Their willingness to swallow all the big-government-has-to-help/save-us is pathetic.; 5/15/20, 12:33 PM
RichardJohnson said...: One reason is that Democrats are much more likely to believe the innumerate MSM. The MSM is more concerned w whipping up hysteria than giving an impartial, honest assessment. Consider Brian Stelter.

Republicans are more skeptical- shall we say much more skeptical- of the MSM. I also suspect that Republicans also more likely to analyze numbers by themselves than Democrats are. The numbers on COVID-19, a.k.a. Winnie the Flu, definitely indicate the worst is behind us. The 7-day average for COVID-19 deaths peaked at 2207 deaths for 15-21 April. Since then the 7-day average for deaths has fallen 35.4%, to 1425 deaths. Most of this fall has been in the last week from 1867 deaths for the 1-7 May average, to 1425 deaths for the 1-47 May average.

The numbers definitely indicate the worst is behind us. A fall

7-Day Average Daily COVID-19 Deaths ( a.k.a. Winnie the Flu Deaths)
15-21 April 2207
22-28 April 1961
29 April-5 May 1858
6-12 May 1593
7-13 May 1485
8-14 May 1425

Corona virus USA; 5/15/20, 12:35 PM
exhelodrvr1 said...: Conservatives are practical, liberals are emotional; 5/15/20, 12:44 PM
Kathryn51 said...: From the CNN poll:
Worst behind us: 44%
Worst to Come: 52%
Undecided: 4%
Sample Error: +/- 3.7%

Independents: Behind 44%/to Come 51% (almost identical to the totals above)
Also in the poll re: trustworthy source for Covid-19 news:
CNN: 58%
FOX: 35%
So, the poll is already skewed if it has a preponderance of people who trust CNN over FOX (since CNN’s viewership is miniscule compared to FOX) and to the extent they are watching CNN they hear: (1) Trump is doing a terrible job, (2) people are dying and (3) Gov. Cuomo is going a great job and Gob DeSantis is doing a terrible job. And they are not hearing about promising cures or encouraging news in the Red states.; 5/15/20, 12:44 PM
exhelodrvr1 said...: Wormer, he's a dead man! Marmalard, dead! Niedermeyer... dead!; 5/15/20, 12:45 PM
Stephen said...: How about different sources of information and different levels of trust in those sources. NYT and WAPO vs. Fox News?

Also different locations--Republicans are disproportionately rural, Democrats disproportionately urban. Covid obviously poses lesser problems for the former than for the latter.

Obviously folks differ in their perception of how effective Trump is, or will be, based on party affiliation. Would make sense, then, that Dems are more pessimistic than Republicans on that ground.

The idea that Dems are natural pessimists and Republicans natural optimists seems too simple. Dems optimistic about the capacity of government to deal with some kinds of problems, like disease and economic catastrophe. Republicans are optimistic about the capacity of private enterprise to solve almost any problem. Both positions can be understood as examples of motivated reasoning.

The idea that Dems want the economy to crater so that Biden can win has a lot less overall credibility, given the much greater impact of shutdowns on Democratic voters, and given the Democrats much greater willingness to stimulate the economy, than does the idea that Trump and his Republicans want the governors of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania to fail so that Trump can win another minority presidency. There's already a lot of good evidence for the latter.; 5/15/20, 12:46 PM
Stephen said...: JAORE: Colorado has over 1,000 deaths.; 5/15/20, 12:49 PM
Gusty Winds said...: Democrats are enlightened totalitarians. Educated but not intelligent. Thinking is one dimensional. They believe in 'science' and own it as their own religion. They also swallow MSM propaganda as truth, and don't question any of it. The believe what they are told to believe.

I would imagine many rank and file Dem voters understand the opportunity at a huge money and power grab. They are all in. No doubt.

Wait till the State budget cuts hit the public employment sector. There'll be a lot of tears shed by our 'heroes'.; 5/15/20, 12:49 PM
Francisco D said...: SeanF said...
So 17% of Democrats and %5 of Republicans think the crisis is going to get worse but don't think the pandemic is going to get worse.

I guess it depends on what "crisis" the respondents have on their minds.

With the usual lefties, the primary crisis is Trump as POTUS.; 5/15/20, 12:49 PM
Nonapod said...: I'm a conservative and my baseline emotional state is always optimism. I've always just defaulted to optimism in absense of any other stimuli. I can get depressed from time to time but it's usually very temporary. And I can look at depressing and negative information and be saddened by it, but it's always a transitory feeling.

I consider myself very lucky to have such an emotional baseline. I know a lot of people have much different baselines and they have trouble being happy in their lives without a lot of therapy and medication and the like.

I've known many people who are pessimists, glass half empty sorts. I always feel a bit sorry for them. I don't know if there's a strong correlation between being a pessimist and being a person who suffers from depression, but I assume that there is.

All that said, I don't know if what's going on here is a result of liberals wishing for bad outcomes or if they're all just pessimists or if there's some combination of the two. But it seems to me that for liberalism/progressivism/socialism and a other left leaning 'isms seem to be predicated on the notion that humans need the sheparding of a strong central authority.

Certainly most left leaning mentalities seem to subscribe to the notion that this country is on some level founded in evil. They look at the history of this country and they seem to focus only the negatives. They feel that the current state of afairs is largely unjust, that since this country is evil it needs to repent. Reperations need to be made. The wealth needs to be redistributed. The wicked wealth holders need to be punished. Until those things are done this country will forever live in sin. Clearly this is a hugely pessimistic view of people. But, more importantly, it's also an unrealistic way of looking at the state of affairs.; 5/15/20, 12:49 PM
Howard said...: Answer= both sides are pretty shitty at risk assessment.; 5/15/20, 12:50 PM
Gusty Winds said...: "They want him to fail, and more death and sickness is something that — in a perverse and unacknowledged way"

What do you mean unacknowledged? Perverse, yes. Unacknowledged, no.

The resistance to Hydroxychlorquine and UV as life saving symptom remedies are acknowledgement enough. How about padding the death toll. Or stuffing COVID infected residents in nursing homes to infect and kill the rest. Unacknowledged. Come on.; 5/15/20, 12:53 PM
exiledonmainstreet, green-eyed devil said...: Althouse wrote of conservatives: "They're more able to trust Trump, and the ordinary wishful thinking that the virus will go away aligns nicely with the hope that Trump will triumph."

No. I don't think the virus will "go away" any more than the flu or common colds will disappear. Viruses don't disappear. I think we have to protect the most vulnerable (something Cuomo and Wolf disastrously failed to do), while getting on with our lives as best we can.

It's liberals who expect the government experts to magically make Wuhan flu vanish from the earth and want to hide away until it happens.

Pants wrote:

"Amazingly I thought here we were at the pinnacle of human achievement with the best yet to be"

Human nature doesn't change, though. Humans might be technologically sophisticated, but masses of people can still be driven by fear and hysteria. The left understands that quite well. Conservatives have been under the mistaken impression that reason and logic eventually win the day. But the Enlightenment was followed by the Reign of Terror.; 5/15/20, 12:59 PM
Drago said...: traditionalguy: "The only crisis going on is DJT putting Americans first, ahead of ChiComs and the works of the Global first with no national borders guys that DJT is now wiping out. The Chinese bio-weapon is those America haters last ditch bombing of the USA to stop their certain demise if DJT gets another 4 years. So the Trump voters see a victory over the Chinese bio-weapon as a sure thing. The Dems see disaster by virus as their last hope."

Just today Operation Warp Speed was announced which is essentially a modern version of the Manhattan Project for bio-war. Trump's revamping of the government total controlled, calcified, horrific, 1 shot to get it right vaccine development/treatment development programs Trump inherited from Stasi obama and Gropey Joe has been detonated and will be replaced by a the most advanced, robust, American-based juggernaut for Bio-development and yanking away our supply chains from ARM's Beloved and Heroic People's Republic of China ChiCom's is an additional massive strategic win.; 5/15/20, 1:03 PM
Mark said...: It's no secret. The two worldviews were expressed here quite often and extensively -- although we did so more a few weeks ago than lately.

It should not be a mystery.; 5/15/20, 1:11 PM
bagoh20 said...: It's actually the optimism/pessimism thing, but reversed. The Democrats are optimistic that things will get worse.; 5/15/20, 1:11 PM
Freder Frederson said...: We are only halfway to the number of deaths from the Hong Kong Flu of 1969.

Where are you getting your numbers. The Hong Kong Flu killed a million world wide and 100,000 in the U.S., and that was over two flu seasons. COVID-19 has killed 84,000 in the U.S. in just over 3 months, worldwide the number is 292,000 (and that is most likely low).; 5/15/20, 1:24 PM
Tyrone Slothrop said...: No conundrum here. Republicans-- conservatives-- are self sufficient people who have confidence in their own ability to take care of themselves. Democrats-- liberals-- need a big government to resolve their problems for them. Simple.; 5/15/20, 1:25 PM
Temujin said...: I repeat myself. Conservatives by nature are more optimistic people. Optimistic about our country, our neighbors, and our ability to overcome problems and rise above them despite our government.

Liberals are depressed, hand-wringing, worrisome Karens and Jakes who demand capitulation on all thought and actions. They view America as inherently evil and see no way out unless government run by the smartest people in the room can help us find our way.

If you had to depend on your government for everything, you'd be less optimistic, too.; 5/15/20, 1:27 PM
bagoh20 said...: A Thursday report says that police found 35-year-old Sebastian Yellow dead earlier in May. Colorado's Montezuma County coroner, George Deavers, determined that the man died due to acute alcohol poisoning — his blood alcohol content level was measured at .55, which is nearly twice the lethal limit, KCNC-TV reports.

After Yellow's death, state health officials reportedly categorized the 35-year-old's sudden death as being due to coronavirus.

Deavers took issue with the determination,... Deavers added that Yellow later tested positive for COVID-19, but it had nothing to do with his death.

"It wasn't COVID, it was alcohol toxicity," Deavers said. "Yes, he did have COVID, but that is not what took his life."

In a statement, the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment said that the organization classifies a COVID-19 death based on circumstances surrounding each individual death.

"We classify a death as confirmed when there was a case who had positive SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) laboratory test and then died," the statement read. "We also classify some deaths as probable."

The reported numbers make this crisis a fraud. Imagine how bad that fraud is if we knew the real numbers. So much damage done by the lies of bureaucrats and "experts". It's really a horrible that we have let them do this to this great nation just for partisanship. Endless lies for four years, and now they finally got the destruction they wanted so bad. I hope you guys are satisfied, and I hope the voters find out and never forgive or forget.; 5/15/20, 1:28 PM
Shouting Thomas said...: Speculation about why the Democrats, led by Obama, set out to destroy the Trump presidency are beginning to center on a massive cash laundering scheme of sending foreign aid to countries like Ukraine, which then kick back massive bribes to members of the Obama administration.

Obamagate, according to this theory, is ultimately intended to cover up this scheme.

This virus panic is another chapter of Obamagate.; 5/15/20, 1:29 PM
mccullough said...: The Dems in New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts should worry.

They have incompetent politicians. Cuomo might just as well have ordered drone strikes on nursing homes. His biological warfare strategy of forcing seniors afflicted with The Virus back into nursing homes was Soviet-level stupidity.; 5/15/20, 1:30 PM
Kevin said...: "According to a CNN poll released this week, nearly three-quarters of Democrats said the worst of the crisis is still ahead of us while only about a quarter of Republicans said the same.

I think this is generally true and has nothing to do with the Coronavirus.; 5/15/20, 1:32 PM
bagoh20 said...: Conservatives don't just wish the virus would go away. That's the Democrat's whole plan. We expect it will not and just don't agree we should let that completely control our lives.

I can't overstate the misreading of that opinion. You have so many conservative commenters and still don't get how they think.; 5/15/20, 1:34 PM
bagoh20 said...: Oh, and moderation sucks. I'd rather have the Covid.; 5/15/20, 1:35 PM
I Callahan said...: First of all, it's CNN doing the polling. Take it for what it's worth.

That said, the death and hospitalization numbers are going down. Even though the amount of testing has increased. Neither of those statements are refutable. That alone should be enough to tell you what's actually going on. Yet 75% of an entire political party's polling believes the absolute opposite of what's happening.

Tell me again why anyone trusts Democrats for anything? A major percentage of one of the two political parties in the US is certifiably insane.; 5/15/20, 1:37 PM
I Callahan said...: First of all, it's CNN doing the polling. Take it for what it's worth.

That said, the death and hospitalization numbers are going down. Even though the amount of testing has increased. Neither of those statements are refutable. That alone should be enough to tell you what's actually going on. Yet 75% of an entire political party's polling believes the absolute opposite of what's happening.

Tell me again why anyone trusts Democrats for anything? A major percentage of one of the two political parties in the US is certifiably insane.; 5/15/20, 1:38 PM
Night Owl said...: "Why should predictions about what a virus will do have so much to do with political orientation?"

"Could be where people get their information."

This makes a lot of sense.; 5/15/20, 1:38 PM
Leland said...: I looked at my county (Harris/Houston) COVID data today. I quit following it regularly at the start of this month. Since 1 May, there has been 2 deaths of residents in the reporting area (more may have occurred at our hospitals, but they apparently count deaths by residence).

My interest in going out, seeing my extended family and friends, and spending money at local businesses has nothing to do with who is in the White House. It never has. I don't think "Trump's in the White House, now may be a good time to visit mom." I know some do think that way, mostly the opposite, but I'm not one of those people.

I'm evaluating the risk and the risk is extremely low. Just two months ago, this was live prime time television on Disney's ABC network. Going to dinner at a restaurant today is not comparable. More importantly, if you watch the clip, no one was thinking that activity was some political statement.; 5/15/20, 1:39 PM
Maillard Reactionary said...: Very good, Professor. Your reasoning was refreshingly parsimonious for once. Like CJinPA, I have nothing else to add except that I agree.; 5/15/20, 1:42 PM
320Busdriver said...: Oh yeah, at first sight I thought they might be referring to the Obamagate/FBI soft coup attempt. That seems about right.; 5/15/20, 1:43 PM
Tomcc said...: Kathryn51: that's a very interesting point (Re: CNN as a trustworthy source). Thanks for bringing it to light. I watch very little national news, but for the few times that I've tried to watch CNN, it sure paints a dismal picture of...everything!; 5/15/20, 1:47 PM
320Busdriver said...: Well SARS cov numba wun did in fact just disappear. So there's that. If an "expert" tells us that that is impossible with Covid19 it means it is sure to happen.; 5/15/20, 1:48 PM
I'm Full of Soup said...: Jeez they did not need to do a poll to determine this. They just could have read the comments here and learned that the Ingas and Howards and Cookies of the world are doom and gloom unless the Dems are in charge.; 5/15/20, 1:48 PM
Maillard Reactionary said...: exiledonmainstreet is correct: Viruses rarely "go away" completely, nor are they typically exactly the same virus from one generation (infection) to another. They evolve continuously, "trying" to stay one step ahead of the host species' immune response.

Fortunately, as more and more hosts become immune or resistant to the virus, the virus itself often evolves into a less dangerous form, in which it can eke by without provoking a furious immune response that wipes it out completely. Bits and pieces of its genome survive here and there in a less lethal form. Sometimes they recombine (occasionally with human help) to create a dangerous and highly transmissible form. It's pandemic time again!

Something to look forward to once the current hysteria burns itself out.; 5/15/20, 1:51 PM
Big Mike said...: With the usual lefties, the primary crisis is Trump as POTUS.

@Francisco D., I agree. Over at Ace of Spades HQ he put it succinctly: they weren’t trying to flatten the curve; they were trying to flatten Trumpism.; 5/15/20, 1:53 PM
DanTheMan said...: >>All the residents of Georgia are dead! All those in the Sunshine State of Florida are DEAD!!!!! *

But we still be voting for Democrats. By mail, apparently.; 5/15/20, 1:55 PM
Shouting Thomas said...: Glenn Reynolds of Instapundit actually suggests Trump may be forced to invoke the Insurrection Act against governors of blue states.; 5/15/20, 1:55 PM
narciso said...: where they screwed up the most, that's where they don't blame their local satraps,; 5/15/20, 1:57 PM
PhilD said...: "nearly three-quarters of Democrats said the worst of the crisis is still ahead of us"

Completely understandable. Most democrats live in democrat run states after all. I too would be pessimistic if I was under the power of a 'lets put the sick and healthy old people together and see what happen' Cuomo.

Ps. about that. Seeing how the Americans seem to love litigation surely mr. Cuomo has some coming to him?; 5/15/20, 1:58 PM
Original Mike said...: I'm a conservative and a pessimist. I am especially pessimistic of large government making things better. People are not smart enough to manage other people's lives (not that they have a right to in any case).; 5/15/20, 2:01 PM
Michael K said...: Howard said...
Answer= both sides are pretty shitty at risk assessment.

The naked meth head that was your party's candidate for Governor of Florida was a bit worse, I'd say.; 5/15/20, 2:02 PM
Roger Sweeny said...: Ironically, "liberals" or "progressives" are often considered more optimistic. The world is full of problems BUT WE CAN FIX THEM (if you give the right people enough money and power--which, again ironically, could be the generals in World War II). "Conservatives" are often considered the pessimists. We will never create a heaven on earth. Things that seem out of date or pointless may have good reasons so we should be hesitant to change them to try to improve things. All schemes of improvement have "unintended consequences". Etc.

So, yeah, it's 2.; 5/15/20, 2:02 PM
Michael K said...: The idea that Dems want the economy to crater so that Biden can win has a lot less overall credibility, given the much greater impact of shutdowns on Democratic voters,

The Democrat voters that matter to the DNC are home collecting government paychecks.; 5/15/20, 2:03 PM
D.D. Driver said...: What's notable is that both ends of the political spectrum are moving in the same direction, its just that Republicans are moving faster. If you do the math. In April 90% of Democrats believed the worst is yet to come and 69% of Republicans thought the worst is yet to come.

Another possibility that maybe Republicans are more open minded and adaptable that the stereotypes suggests. In this case, Republicans have been much more willing to take in new information and change their minds than Democrats.; 5/15/20, 2:04 PM
Jim at said...: If the left's non-stop panic impacted only them, I'd be all for it. They deserve it.

Unfortunately, they're screwing the rest of us, too.; 5/15/20, 2:08 PM
Mr. O. Possum said...: spiked: Is Covid-19 dangerous?

Knut Wittkowski: No, unless you have age-related severe comorbidities. So if you are in a nursing home because you cannot live by yourself anymore, then getting infected is dangerous.

Epidemiologist Wittkowski was head of Biostatistics, Epidemiology, and Research Design at The Rockefeller University’s Center for Clinical and Translational Science.

Interview here.

He basically says everything that has been done--except for isolating nursing home patients--has been a catastrophic waste.; 5/15/20, 2:09 PM
hstad said...: AA states "...but I see 2 types of reasoning...Optimism or pessimism.." In items 1 & 2.

AA right on finally - you've overcome the MSM's propoganda.

AA - try this word 'Tribalism' - it keeps your discussion short and succinct!; 5/15/20, 2:09 PM
Roger Sweeny said...: Ann, Robert Charles 5/15/20, 12:25 PM is spam. You might want to delete it (and then this).; 5/15/20, 2:10 PM
iowan2 said...: Richard at 12:35, Those numbers cant be right because the number of new cases keeps going up.
(shhh... I know the testing is going up exponentially)

Here in Iowa they are doing something called, Test Iowa. You go on line and answer some questions, and if you qualify, they send you to a test sight. We did the on line survey, we are not in the likely group of exposed individuals. The point is, the media says the positive results (~14%) is unchanged. implying cases are not going down. But if you keep testing the likelys, you will keep getting the same results.; 5/15/20, 2:11 PM
PresbyPoet said...: Who do you trust?

Two words. Confirmation bias. We tend to see what we expect to see. The assumptions of the models included a much higher death rate than reality. This is why rest home deaths are important. They increase the number of dead. Increase the death rate.

People in rest homes are vulnerable. Every year a flu virus visits, people die. A norovirus visits, people die. This virus is dangerous, because it is infectious without symptoms. That makes it a perfect killer in rest homes. For the rest of us, included old guys not in rest homes, it is much less of a risk. So you end up with an elevated death rate in rest homes that makes the average death rate higher, and you are told to panic, and stay home.

Facilities are rewarded for people who "die" with Wuhan virus. As the old saying goes, you reward something, you get more of it. You pay more for Wuhan, lets go back and put everything we can think into that box, so we get paid. The problem is that we can no longer trust the data. That is the worst killer.

Do we trust China? The answer is NO. This is the question: Is China faking data intentionally? Or do they truly not know, because no one in China provides data you can trust. That is a major problem with Chinese companies listed on the American stock markets. You can't trust their data. Perhaps we would do both us and China a favor if we delisted all their companies, until their info could be verified.

The Chernobyl video has the scene where they ask a West German firm for help. Then realize equipment they get doesn't work, because they gave them fake radiation readings, not actual levels. So how do we know what we can trust? This is the reason for the split in worry, we are watching two different movies.

I suggest this as a possible solution for trusting China. Anything that comes from China must have 10% tested to destruction to insure it both actually does what it is supposed to do, that it has no dangerous additives, and is what it claims to be. The sample would be random. This would provide a large number of American jobs, insure we were getting what we paid for, and level the playing field. For any medical equipment there would be a 30% tariff, 20% would be tested, and the owner of any supply company agrees to swallow anything he ships to prove it is safe.

Who do you trust?; 5/15/20, 2:14 PM
clint said...: Democrats and Republicans don't just have different political orientations. Democrats and Republicans get basic factual information about what's going on in the world from different sources.

It shouldn't be surprising that people who watch CNN are more likely to reach the conclusions that CNN pushes.

I'd be more interested to see how Democrats and Republicans do on stating basic facts about coronavirus and what's happened so far. I'd predict, for example, that Democrats would be more likely to overstate how many coronavirus deaths occurred in people under 45, while Republicans would be more likely to overstate the fraction of U.S. deaths that occurred in New York City.; 5/15/20, 2:16 PM
iowan2 said...: The difference in, the polls? Narrative setting. Where do people get their narrative?

I don't watch or listen to FOX much. Broadcast stuff is probably 80% CNN,msnbc, abc, etal. Mostly lefty stuff. It is clear to me exactly why the difference exists.

For the same reason these exact same people are wholly aware of Obama spying on political opponents. Politicizing the IRS, FBL, DoJ, Intel community, and State Dept.

Narrative setting; 5/15/20, 2:20 PM
Michael said...: As often stated, the pandemic has become a Dem panic.; 5/15/20, 2:21 PM
Lurker21 said...: Attitudes probably reflect a mixture of where you live and where you get your news.

There are social scientists who are always trying to explain away political views by reducing them to a straightforward result of psychological traits.

The interesting people are the ones you can't reduce to a stereotype.; 5/15/20, 2:22 PM
ALP said...: I'm repeating myself here but - I think how much experience a person has with death and disease factors in much more than politics. People that have had tramatic experience with death/disease - losing a child, losing a family member to something else that 'they thought wasn't serious', car accident. The threat of disease and possible death may be more of a trigger to negative thinking and fear for these folks.; 5/15/20, 2:26 PM
Birkel said...: https://disrn.com/news/county-supervisor-says-san-diego-has-only-had-6-pure-solely-coronavirus-deaths-out-of-194-listed-as-such

So about 3% of listed Winnie Xi Flu deaths were caused by Winnie Xi Flu.
The rest were caused by confounding factors, a combination of co-morbidities.

Defeating Donald Trump will be easy.; 5/15/20, 2:31 PM
Mark said...: masses of people can still be driven by fear and hysteria

With Dem government leaders and the media, there is a combination of a natural/ideological alarmism with the knee-jerk political response of being the opposite of Trump, who every day is projecting positivity.

And they have done quite well in instilling that fear into their constituencies. Already in those populations there is a learned helplessness, a learned expectation/entitlement from and dependence on others, and a resignation that the system will not allow them to rise above their station in life. These people have been well convinced that coming within a mile of COVID is a death sentence.

Look at Katrina, when people were saying to get the hell out of New Orleans, that they had to find a way to get out themselves, that government wasn't going to come save them. And others made excuses for why they would/could not. And so many just stood there. Paralyzed.; 5/15/20, 2:32 PM
Bilwick said...: Howard wrote: "Answer= both sides are pretty shitty at risk assessment." And worst of all at risk assessment are "liberals," "porogressives" and other State-fellators. History shows us what the risks of statism are, so much so that they're not so much "risks" as "near certainties." But the little Eloi obediently march onward, dropping trou and bending over and asking, "Please, sir, may I have another?"; 5/15/20, 2:34 PM
Amadeus 48 said...: I would say that it is number 2 of your choices. That is certainly what I see among our acquaintances. The people that oppose Trump are confident that he will mess up everything.; 5/15/20, 2:35 PM
Known Unknown said...: What is the use of polling people by party identification at all?; 5/15/20, 2:35 PM
elkh1 said...: 3. Democrats are getting pay working from home or pay for not working, like college administrators and staff, or they make more collecting unemployment and federal checks. Republicans are likely small business owners who are watching their life time efforts down the drains, they need to open up.

4. Democrats want to take us hostage unless we pay them trillions of dollars for their pet projects, and pass their cheat-by-mail scheme.; 5/15/20, 2:36 PM
effinayright said...: I keep thinking that small business owners, no matter what their political persuasion, are still desperate to open up again, lest they lose everything.

Such folk just HAVE to be optimistic, as they've put their money and sweat into making their ventures profitable. So I imagine that pessimistic Dems do not start small businesses, by and large, while the optimistic Dem business owners hope that Trump does not fail.; 5/15/20, 2:38 PM
Amadeus 48 said...: Confirmation bias is so hard to sort out because I am always right, and the people that agree with me are really smart and are right, too.

The people that don't agree with me are not as smart as I thought they were, and I am disappointed that they are not as smart as I am, or for that matter, they are not as smart as people who agree with me. Why listen to them?

Any questions?; 5/15/20, 2:45 PM
CStanley said...: 3. The Democrats are all watching CNN, MSNBC, and reading NYT and WaPo.

My mom, wh9 is not very political, unfortunately watches a lot of MSM and there’s been an uptick recently in her anxiety level. I’m wondering if those networks are turning up the volume on pandemic coverage because they’re trying so hard to ignore the Obama scandals.; 5/15/20, 2:52 PM
Iman said...: Weren’t researchers just reporting that low testosterone levels boost the level of fear males have?

Science!; 5/15/20, 2:53 PM
Drago said...: PresbyPoet: "Do we trust China? The answer is NO."

Uh, have you seen ARM's posts over the last 3 months?; 5/15/20, 2:58 PM
Jersey Fled said...: Chuck said:

Another example; even as the economy improved under Obama in 2011-2016, as diverse metrics clearly prove (GDP, unemployment, equity markets, etc), Republicans still claimed it was a Bearish, failing economy.

No, Chuck. We said it was a weak recovery. Which it was.; 5/15/20, 2:58 PM
dbp said...: It is an interesting psychological experiment: The trends are really very clear, as you can see at the below link:

Cases have been declining since the first third of April and deaths since the middle of April. There is a weekly cycle superimposed on the gentle downward trend, but the trend is clearly there.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

So, why the difference?

1. People on the left trust the news media and so they don't go looking for sources like the one at my link.
2. People on the left live where the pandemic is hitting hardest, so it seems more real to them.
3. Motivated reasoning: They think if things are bad, this will make Trump lose.
4. People on the left are the kind of people who are still drawing a paycheck because they can work from home or work in the public sector.
4a. People on the left (some of them anyway) like the idea of the yokels (who can't work during the shutdown) suffering.; 5/15/20, 3:05 PM
Inga said...: Every time I hear how Republicans are optimists and Democrats are pessimists, I think back to the theme of Trump’s inauguration speech “American Carnage” and how he ran on the worst fears of conservatives during the presidential campaign. Republicans want to appear optimistic because they want to believe they didn’t make a huge mistake putting their trust in Trump. Also, Republicans are very good at self deception.

I have absolutely NO DOUBT that Covid will be behind us one day, probably sooner, rather than later. All the angst and overreaction from those on the right regarding their “freedom” and social distancing encouraged by Trump, who ignored his OWN guidelines, will one day be viewed as mass hysteria in the history books.; 5/15/20, 3:08 PM
exhelodrvr1 said...: Over-reporting of deaths as Covid:
Only 6 of 194 in San Diego County were due solely to Covid

https://disrn.com/news/county-supervisor-says-san-diego-has-only-had-6-pure-solely-coronavirus-deaths-out-of-194-listed-as-such; 5/15/20, 3:14 PM
ga6 said...: The bell curve strikes again...Dems to the left of me ..repubs to the right.; 5/15/20, 3:15 PM
Francisco D said...: Are we actually discussing a CNN poll as if reflects any level of reality?; 5/15/20, 3:19 PM
Johnathan Birks said...: Of course Democrats want the devastation to last at least until November. Misery is all they've got left.; 5/15/20, 3:26 PM
Hey Skipper said...: Here in Idaho, cases, serious illness and deaths are — at most — 4% of what was predicted under the best case scenario as of March 23rd.

Cases have been at 10% of the peak for nearly a month.

So of course the worst is to come.

Obviously.; 5/15/20, 3:28 PM
n.n said...: It could also reflect people... persons' concern about prospects for political progress (PP) and political contagion (PC).; 5/15/20, 3:29 PM
Michael K said...: Republicans want to appear optimistic because they want to believe they didn’t make a huge mistake putting their trust in Trump.

We are optimistic because we know better and are watching Democrat governors and mayors destroy their communities.; 5/15/20, 3:33 PM
john said...: Blogger Known Unknown said...
What is the use of polling people by party identification at all?

Exactly. Nate at 538, not exactly a conservative blog, has been running a continuous graph of polls which asked are you more concerned about the economy or the virus. It constantly polls around 60% economy over 30% virus.; 5/15/20, 3:39 PM
Mr. T. said...: This is supposed to be Trump's hurricane Katrina, so naturally the democrats want us to be as miserable and doom and gloom as possible to turn to them. And it's the leftist media's job to keep us this way. Shocking that Brian Williams isn't making up stories about how he was shot at while in a helicopter foraging rats for food in suburban highrise Manhattan.; 5/15/20, 3:39 PM
Ken B said...: Mostly 2 but also

3. Democrats see yahoos with guns squeezing together at protests, and extrapolate. Republicans watch the same scene and see freedom fighters standing tall, and extrapolate.

Time will tell. I'm voting with the donkeys on this point: clueless yahoos.; 5/15/20, 3:39 PM
Michael McNeil said...: “We are only halfway to the number of deaths from the Hong Kong Flu of 1969.”

Where are you getting your numbers. The Hong Kong Flu killed a million world wide and 100,000 in the U.S., and that was over two flu seasons. COVID-19 has killed 84,000 in the U.S. in just over 3 months, worldwide the number is 292,000 (and that is most likely low).

I'm not the original poster, the the answer is obvious. Hong Kong Flu struck in 1968; COVID-2019 (basically) in 2020. The U.S. population in 1968 was 205 million; the American population in 2020 is now some 331 million: a ratio of 161%. 100,000 deaths in the U.S., adjusted for the population difference then and now, would be some 161,000 deaths — which is just about twice the Covid-19 total in the U.S. thus far.; 5/15/20, 3:43 PM
I Callahan said...: Glenn Reynolds of Instapundit actually suggests Trump may be forced to invoke the Insurrection Act against governors of blue states.

Although there is some deliciousness in that possibility, it throws the whole "consent of the governed" thing right out the window. And a number of states run by lefty governors were states that Trump carried - Pennsylvania, Michigan, for example. He can't afford to lose those in the election.; 5/15/20, 3:45 PM
Bob Smith said...: Unacknowledged? One or another Dem says so every day. Some of them, take a bow Andrew Cuomo, are imposing policies that make the situation worse.; 5/15/20, 3:46 PM
Drago said...: Inga: "Every time I hear how Republicans are optimists and Democrats are pessimists, I think back to the theme of Trump’s inauguration speech “American Carnage” and how he ran on the worst fears of conservatives during the presidential campaign."

Its so funny that a russian collusion truther could never pick up on Trump's indefatigable optimism which all normal people have no trouble seeing.; 5/15/20, 3:54 PM
Sebastian said...: "According to a CNN poll released this week, nearly three-quarters of Democrats said the worst of the crisis is still ahead of us..."

So, if they are wrong, they'll consider their hypothesis refuted, and vote GOP, right?; 5/15/20, 3:57 PM
Drago said...: LLR-lefty and Whitmer Reelection Team Member Chuck: "Another example; even as the economy improved under Obama in 2011-2016, as diverse metrics clearly prove (GDP, unemployment, equity markets, etc), Republicans still claimed it was a Bearish, failing economy."

LOL

These are my favorite LLR-lefty Chuck posts. The ones where he forgets he is supposed to at least pretend to be a "lifelong" "principled" "conservative" "republican" and speaks about republicans and conservatives as if they are alien creatures.

The best.

Really.

I chalk it up to LLR-lefty Chuck's banning and inability to post frequently so he's a bit off his game.; 5/15/20, 3:57 PM
Drago said...: Jersey Fled: "No, Chuck. We said it was a weak recovery. Which it was."

There is no point in engaging lefties like LLR-lefty Chuck on any issue because he will just come back with another set of democrat/Media Matters/DNC talking points.; 5/15/20, 3:59 PM
Jeff Brokaw said...: It seems pretty clear that Democrats -- especially the Trump haters — pay more attention to the news cycle and believe it without hesitation at much higher rates than Repubs.

Which works out well for them since CNN, MSNBC etc are only too happy to tell them everything they are so desperate to hear.

It might be something as simple as that. In fact I would bet that is the bulk of the difference.

Trump haters *want* it to go on for-freaking-ever so they can win an election.; 5/15/20, 4:00 PM
Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...: Drago Mental Stability Index (DMSI™)

DMSI 5: McDonalds on a typical day
DMSI 4: Republican National Convention
DMSI 3: Bedlam Level ***
DMSI 2: Arkham Level
DMSI 1 : Dark Side of the Moon

It's not looking good.; 5/15/20, 4:19 PM
Pookie Number 2 said...: Jersey Fled: No, Chuck. We said it was a weak recovery. Which it was.

Why are you bringing up facts? There’s smearing to be done.; 5/15/20, 4:22 PM
Bay Area Guy said...: The Dems are a delusional lot. There's only a handful who comment here, because there are too many lucid thinkers from a variety of backgrounds who can pierce the fog of delusion wth logic, history, evidence and wit.

Rich folks line Bill Gates, and govt workers want to continue the lockdown because it doesn't impact them. The junk science and fear-mongering engulfed much of the country, but after 2 months common sense is returning to form and even fighting back.

We've had numerous outbreaks since the Spanish Flu of 1918. SARS, Ebola, West Nile, Avian Bird Flu, Swine Flu, Zika - they all fade away, despite the hysteria and research dollars, without a national lockdown. That's the only new thing, here. And leftwing Dem Governors are clinging to it, like a security blanket. Thankfully, Texas and Florida - with far greater populations than NY - are leading the way out.; 5/15/20, 4:27 PM
Danno said...: Ken B said.."Time will tell. I'm voting with the donkeys on this point: "

Does that mean you are an ass?; 5/15/20, 4:28 PM
Paul said...: Well since Biden has to go against Trump in the debates, I guess the Democrats are right from their point of view.... the worst has yet to come!; 5/15/20, 4:30 PM
Hey Skipper said...: Michael McNeil said...
“We are only halfway to the number of deaths from the Hong Kong Flu of 1969.”

Where are you getting your numbers. The Hong Kong Flu killed a million world wide and 100,000 in the U.S., and that was over two flu seasons. COVID-19 has killed 84,000 in the U.S. in just over 3 months, worldwide the number is 292,000 (and that is most likely low).

I'm not the original poster, the the answer is obvious.

✅Eleventy

I have to admit, that fundamental ratio was 35,000 feet above me.; 5/15/20, 4:33 PM
Spiros said...: Bad news. Republicans may be much more likely to die as a result of Covid 19! Some scientists like Suzanne Segerstrom believe that optimists have poorer immune responses when stress levels are very severe.; 5/15/20, 4:40 PM
Drago said...: ARM: "It's not looking good."

What's not looking good is your Beloved and Heroic People's Republic of China ChiComs talking points now that the UK, France, Italy, Germany, Australia and half of Africa calling out the ChiComs for tge lies ARM pushed at Althouse.

And to think, just yesterday CNN's own anti-Trump poll showed Trump winning the top 15 battleground states by 52-45 over Rapey Joe when in 2016 Trunp only won those states by 48-47....and that was enough.

Egads! That means ARM's ChiCom lies have been matched by his political prognostications!

Unexpectedly.; 5/15/20, 4:40 PM
narciso said...: You're riding with Zoolander, there's a certain logic, in the states who screwed up the worst, have the most panic ridden voters,; 5/15/20, 4:56 PM
Mike (MJB Wolf) said...: Yes, population-adjusted it is equivalent roughly to halfway through the Hong King Flu. Thanks for the assist. The point stands, regardless of source (we don’t keep records of flu deaths annually), the point is we did not quarantine the healthy and freak out when facing essentially similar novel flu viruses. It is close in time to the present and close enough in effect that I doubt you’ll find a better example for comparison and contrast. But quibble about numbers. That’ll help solve things, Genius.; 5/15/20, 4:57 PM
Drago said...: In other completely unexpected news, the ChiComs have extended their direct threats against western nations to US republicans in the House and Senate with the full support of democrats.

Again, unexpectedly.; 5/15/20, 4:58 PM
dreams said...: "Why should predictions about what a virus will do have so much to do with political orientation? I might be missing something, but I see 2 types of reasoning:"

No, It's not that hard, Democrats get their news from liberal TV which wants to shut down the economy to hurt Trump. A lot of Democrats are young, still immature people so they are more impressible. Republicans are more experienced and informed because they've read more, have had more life experiences and so they have a better perspective of the news. And the Republican party has more people who work in the real world, they know how the real world works. Republicans know that unemployment (hard times) causes suicides, for every one percent increase in unemployment, it's estimated that there is an increase of 10,000 suicides. The virus is just another hazard to our health that we all have to deal with.; 5/15/20, 4:58 PM
Andy said...: #2 is the closest. I think most people are just pulling for their team. The people who have actual principles are the ones who often find themselves alone or with a few others when the team abandons its so called principles.
Wittness Matt Taibbi

My family is in quarantine, I worry about a premature return to work, and sure, I laughed at that Shaun of the Dead photo of Ohio protesters protesting state lockdown laws. But I also recognize the crisis is also raising serious civil liberties issues, from prisoners trapped in deadly conditions to profound questions about speech and assembly, the limits to surveillance and snitching, etc. If this disease is going to be in our lives for the foreseeable future, that makes it more urgent that we talk about what these rules will be, not less — yet the party I grew up supporting seems to have lost the ability to do so, and I don’t understand why.; 5/15/20, 5:16 PM
Drago said...: Also as expected, the ChiCom govt openly declaring they will meddle on behalf of their allies: the democratics.

Not that we didnt already know that.; 5/15/20, 5:29 PM
The Godfather said...: I have/had lots of Democrat friends, and I would not say that they are more fearful or negative, etc. I do think that they tend to think they are smarter and more knowledgeable than conservatives are. "Smart" people tend to see more problems and challeges ahead than duller people do. That doesn't mean they're right. In fact I often think they don't even THINK they're right.; 5/15/20, 5:34 PM
Nichevo said...: Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan...'s not looking good.

Must be the eyeballs.; 5/15/20, 5:34 PM
Drago said...: In more news which is likely to drive ARM back into therapy, is the TSMC announcement of their expanding advance microchip production into Arizona and bringing at least 8 of their key suppliers into AZ as well.

Again, this is ANOTHER example of supply chain and manufacturing expansion in the US that ARM told us was impossible and that we simply had to accept that only his beloved ChiComs could compete like this.

ARM should learn to code.; 5/15/20, 5:43 PM
Francisco D said...: Ken B said... Time will tell. I'm voting with the donkeys on this point: clueless yahoos.

I am shocked that Little Kenny B has morphed into Li'l Chuckles.

Shocked, I tell you.; 5/15/20, 5:49 PM
Bilwick said...: "I do think that they ["liberals"*] tend to think they are smarter and more knowledgeable than conservatives are."

Of course, in reality, if you really believe in the junk economics, magical thinking and State-cultism that constitutes modern "liberalism," their presumption of smartness is mere illusion.

*i.e., tax-happy. coercion-addicted, power-trippimg government humpers and State fellators.; 5/15/20, 6:02 PM
Bilwick said...: "I do think that they ["liberals"*] tend to think they are smarter and more knowledgeable than conservatives are."

Of course, in reality, if you really believe in the junk economics, magical thinking and State-cultism that constitutes modern "liberalism," their presumption of smartness is mere illusion.

*i.e., tax-happy. coercion-addicted, power-trippimg government humpers and State fellators.; 5/15/20, 6:02 PM
narciso said...: Major Renault level shock, now about Cuomo killing 3500 in nursing homes,; 5/15/20, 6:06 PM
narciso said...: I included in the earlier link, the nature of this tracking bill proposed by former panther bobby rush, it is tied to the gates foundation, the who, and a researcher who worked in Wuhan, jonathan Epstein,; 5/15/20, 6:15 PM
Michael K said...: "Every time I hear how Republicans are optimists and Democrats are pessimists, I think back to the theme of Trump’s inauguration speech “American Carnage” and how he ran on the worst fears of conservatives during the presidential campaign."

No, he was talking about the Obama years. Funny you should miss that. Along with most else.; 5/15/20, 6:16 PM
bagoh20 said...: Pretty simple explanation: It's demonstrably true that we are well past the peak of the epidemic, so Democrats are just dumb. Who doesn't know what a bell curve looks like and which part of the bell is the peak?; 5/15/20, 6:20 PM
Howard said...: Ironically, the Coronavirus pandemic is improving in the panicked libber blue States while the new case and corpse rates are increasing in the cocksure Trumpian red States.

Like I implied before... neither ideology can avoid motivated reasoning as the foundation of their risk assessment framework.; 5/15/20, 6:23 PM
bananarepublic2020 said...: Republicans are anti-science whenever the scientist’s view might hurt the economy. Same with global warming. Scientists are simply part of the deep state. And most of them are dems to boot; 5/15/20, 6:27 PM
Yancey Ward said...: The Democrats have rushed headlong into a political cul de sac. Some of them can see it coming, but are helpless to do anything about it. At this point, to win the election, they need the coronavirus to send us a big second wave during the Summer or early Fall- this is the ground they, the Democrats, have chosen to fight on, not the Republicans, but Trump quite happily took public and full ownership of the 240,000 dead number as the metric by which success/failure will be judged. Also, by putting the onus on the governors to open/reopen, Trump has fully washed his hands of responsibility for the economic results in the lockdowned states- and I can tell you what those results are going to be- those continuing to lock down into June and July are going to perform far worse than those that have opened in the last two weeks. The differences between the states locked down and not locked down will be noticeable by August and September- so noticeable that I think the Democratic governors will have protesters from the left to lift the lockdowns if they haven't done so by that time.; 5/15/20, 6:28 PM
Josephbleau said...: I hope moderation is saving us from a great evil, because it is a negative coefficient in my concept of this blog, specifically my battlefield awareness of what I said on each post. I love this blog, but fear that it is waning. An old boomer knows when to pack up.; 5/15/20, 6:30 PM
h said...: Richard Johnson: Yes, and it's even more dramatic when you look at % increase:

7-Day % increase in COVID-19 Deaths
15-21 April 70% increase
22-28 April 1961 24% increase
29 April-5 May 1858 19% increase
6-12 May 1593 14% increase
7-13 May 1485 12% increase
8-14 May 1425 11% increase

(I'm using CDC data); 5/15/20, 6:32 PM
Yancey Ward said...: "Ironically, the Coronavirus pandemic is improving in the panicked libber blue States while the new case and corpse rates are increasing in the cocksure Trumpian red States."

Completely untrue. Deaths/day aren't increasing in any of the states as of last week.; 5/15/20, 6:33 PM
Freeman Hunt said...: I'm a Republican, and if I had to guess, I'd guess that the worst is still ahead of us, but that has nothing to do with politics. It has to do with seasons and the fact that we don't have a feasible way to do contact tracing.; 5/15/20, 6:34 PM
Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...: Drago Mental Stability Index (DMSI™)

DMSI 5: McDonalds on a typical day
DMSI 4: Republican National Convention
DMSI 3: Bedlam Level
DMSI 2: Arkham Level ***
DMSI 1 : Dark Side of the Moon

Unfortunately we are going to have to downgrade Drago's status. Things are now quite clearly deteriorating between Drago's ears. His robotic use of the word 'ChiComs', a word he only learnt a few months ago, now exceeds his former record repetitive usage of the word 'Venezuela'. Although his ability to form coherent thoughts left long ago he does seem to be attempting to signal his displeasure at Mitch McConnell's sellout of US manufacturing to the ChiComs. There is some argument about this in our team since it is uncertain whether Drago is still capable of recognizing a quisling when he sees one.; 5/15/20, 6:35 PM
Howard said...: NewYork is bending the US curve, bagoh2o; 5/15/20, 6:40 PM
Drago said...: Howard: "Ironically, the Coronavirus pandemic is improving in the panicked libber blue States while the new case and corpse rates are increasing in the cocksure Trumpian red States."

LOL

Sure they are.

Keep telling yourself that.; 5/15/20, 6:40 PM
Yancey Ward said...: The 7 day moving average over the entire country has dropped from about 2200 to just 1450/day in the last two weeks. New York's has dropped by 800/day from the peak a month ago, but that was made up for and more by the rise in deaths in, specifically, Massachussetts, Illinois, Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Connecticut. All of those states have declining 7-day averages now- joining all the other states in the country.; 5/15/20, 6:42 PM
Shouting Thomas said...: @Howard

That’s a flat out lie. The fatalities are overwhelmingly in Democratic controlled cities.

The Mountain West and Deep South have opened up and the predicted catastrophe has not happened.

Ideology is what this is all about. You’ve got TDS. This panic is a Get Trump scheme, and it’s failing, like all the rest.

Even economic sabotage hasn’t worked. As the Mountain West and Deep South states prosper and unemployment falls, the blue state governors will have a lot of explaining to do.; 5/15/20, 6:42 PM
Drago said...: Francisco D: "I am shocked that Little Kenny B has morphed into Li'l Chuckles.

Shocked, I tell you."

Who could have guessed that Karen B, who jumped into Inga's purse long long ago, would "emerge" as a moron dem?

Besides everyone I mean.; 5/15/20, 6:43 PM
Yancey Ward said...: Howard is just flat out lying- no other explanation.; 5/15/20, 6:44 PM
steve uhr said...: So why are republicans much less likely to wear a mask in public. Pick all that apply:

A Trump is their role model in all things
B. Vanity
C. Don't believe all the scientists who say that wearing a mask keeps others safe if you are infected and don't know. Deep state conspiracy. They're all dems.
D. Don't give a shit about strangers. Not my problem.

What am I missing?; 5/15/20, 6:45 PM
Josephbleau said...: "Ironically, the Coronavirus pandemic is improving in the panicked libber blue States while the new case and corpse rates are increasing in the cocksure Trumpian red States.

Like I implied before... neither ideology can avoid motivated reasoning as the foundation of their risk assessment framework."

Yes, in the Trumpian states an increase in deaths from 10 to 11 is a 10% increase yet an 11,000 to 12,000 increase in Democrat strongholds is only 9%. Democrats are better! Damned death dealing Republicans!

Howard knows not of second derivatives.; 5/15/20, 6:46 PM
narciso said...: they are waging a war on math, as per the 2012 democratic convention,; 5/15/20, 6:46 PM
Yancey Ward said...: NewYork is bending the US curve, bagoh2o

Again, no. New York's decline was initially more than compensated by the rise in deaths in New Jersey, Illinois, Massachusetts, Connecticut, and Pennsylvania. Those latter states have since dropped by an aggregate of about 400/day. It is the drop in states like Louisiana, Georgia, Indiana, Ohio, Colorado that make up the bulk of the rest. The rest of the other states peaked a couple of weeks ago, but since their peaks were already much lower, they don't contribute very much to the overall decline from the peak in mid April. Howard is just flat out lying in this thread.; 5/15/20, 6:48 PM
Yancey Ward said...: The only state that might still be in the peak death/day range is Ohio, but even their 7-day average was higher last Friday than it is now, but not by a lot.; 5/15/20, 6:50 PM
Yancey Ward said...: And Maryland might still be at a peak since their decline is more recent like Ohio's- deep red state, though.; 5/15/20, 6:53 PM
PluralThumb said...: Perverse ? Perverse ?
If the Democrats are @ 50 %, goodness knows that is perverse !

But why are Republicans taking a vacation of non perverse, at 17% percent ?

If we get the demon's and the rep's equally @ 99.9% we may have a donkey/ elephant mutant.

That is not 100 % !

We are are human !

We deserve percent in any choice !

- I do not have or own a gun.
Nor am I a licensed Priest, University invested and patient enough career leader, or an individual that can sense bullshit of lies from a cobra. I am just a punk who supports Robert the friendly ghost that is a retrobushion for theft and lies to blame white supremacy. Besides a heartbreaking separation from a love that was not his fault, yet a warning not a mock for future generations.

What is the Khardashians up to now ?

- No hops, just beer. Ty.; 5/15/20, 7:00 PM
Drago said...: In other news: Hunter Biden remains safely ensconced in his ChiCom funded "investment company" "venture".

But only to the tune of $1.5 Billion.

Again, as always, "unexpectedly".; 5/15/20, 7:04 PM
Howard said...: Dance, bitches.; 5/15/20, 7:06 PM
Drago said...: Yancey Ward: "Howard is just flat out lying- no other explanation."

These are the same guys that told us Cuomo was some sort of superhero virus response guy....right up until the moment the lefties could no longer hide the fact that the dem governors of NY, NJ, PA and CA were shoving infected elderly back into nursing homes in order to kill off the old people to "own" Trump.; 5/15/20, 7:06 PM
Drago said...: Howard: "NewYork is bending the US curve, bagoh2o"

When you've already killed off many of your at risk elderly, your numbers are likely to decrease.; 5/15/20, 7:07 PM
Howard said...: https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.usatoday.com/amp/111695368; 5/15/20, 7:13 PM
Michael K said...: Howard: "Ironically, the Coronavirus pandemic is improving in the panicked libber blue States while the new case and corpse rates are increasing in the cocksure Trumpian red States."

Howard, even you know better. Buggery is not good for you.; 5/15/20, 7:15 PM
Inga said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; 5/15/20, 7:17 PM
Shouting Thomas said...: @steve

You’re missing “freedom.”

“Scientists” at first said masks were no benefit, changed their mind, and seem to b e changing their minds again.

Risk is part of life. If you’re afraid, you say home and cower. I’m not responsible for you being easily frightened.; 5/15/20, 7:19 PM
Inga said...: Wrong again Yancy.
“Completely untrue. Deaths/day aren't increasing in any of the states as of last week.”
—————————————————
“On Thursday, Texas reported its largest number of single-day coronavirus fatalities, but the state is just days away from more businesses opening their doors in phase two of its reopening plan.

According to the Texas Department of Health and Human Services, there were at least 58 newly reported coronavirus deaths on Thursday, topping the state's previous one-day high of 50 on May 30. The 58 deaths bring the state's total number of coronavirus-related fatalities to at least 1,216.

Additionally, Thursday also marked a new one-day high in the number of coronavirus cases reported in Texas. According to the state's department of health, there were 1,448 newly cases and the state has seen over 8,000 new cases over the past seven days, bringing the total to at least 43,851.”

https://www.newsweek.com/texas-sets-record-most-coronavirus-fatalities-state-reopening-gets-underway-1504397?fbclid=IwAR37NxyupQyZAReGZQISJLYMMfoOzRYdJZP6h6QSZyKBLx7sApikcOSKRwU; 5/15/20, 7:19 PM
Meade said...: "What am I missing?"

E. Less depressive, more optimistic
therefore,
F. Smile more, make more eye contact
G. Have less to hide
H. More extroverted, like people
therefore
I. Enjoy being around others, communicating, smiling and expressing positive feelings
therefore,
E. are less depressive, more optimistic; 5/15/20, 7:22 PM
narciso said...: https://www.lifenews.com/2020/04/30/new-york-allowed-coronavirus-infected-nurses-to-work-in-nursing-home/; 5/15/20, 7:32 PM
I'm Not Sure said...: "What am I missing?"

Re: D. Don't give a shit about strangers. Not my problem.

I care about strangers about as much as they care about me, I'd guess. If they're worried about someone without a mask getting close to them, I'd say it's on them to keep away, not on me to read their mind about what they consider to be a safe distance.; 5/15/20, 7:41 PM
Mark said...: What am I missing?

A clue.

And a good faith response to the question, instead of spouting strawman snark.; 5/15/20, 7:50 PM
Shouting Thomas said...: The 58 deaths bring the state's total number of coronavirus-related fatalities to at least 1,216.

The population of Texas is about 29 million.

Keep hoping, Inga.

How does it feel to cheer for mass fatalities as your primary political objective?

A little creepy?; 5/15/20, 7:56 PM
Shouting Thomas said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; 5/15/20, 8:02 PM