Althouse: At the Monday Lunch Café...

April 13, 2020

At the Monday Lunch Café...

63921D70-64FA-41D4-816C-9B26E6085156_1_201_a

... flow wherever you like.

522 comments:

1 – 200 of 522 Newer› Newest»

Maillard Reactionary said...: Color and ripples. Very minimal. I like it.; 4/13/20, 10:30 AM
tcrosse said...: Monet!; 4/13/20, 10:31 AM
mockturtle said...: Very nice!!! :-D Frame it and sell it.; 4/13/20, 10:42 AM
madAsHell said...: There’s blood in the water.; 4/13/20, 10:46 AM
Temujin said...: Beautiful!; 4/13/20, 10:47 AM
Professional lady said...: Looks like an impressionistic painting.; 4/13/20, 10:55 AM
Anne-I-Am said...: Mmmm. I like the interplay of color and light.; 4/13/20, 10:55 AM
Achilles said...: 1. 30-50% of people tested in Chicago had anti-bodies for COVID-19. This pattern matches studies in California and other places.

2. Fauci is a lying weasel. His skin should adorn furniture in the CDC to remind people that come after him of the price of failure.

3. They are now admitting COVID-19 was spreading in December and January while China was lying and the Democrats were trying to impeach Trump.

4. The death statistics being released are a complete fraud.

5. The coming famine and suicide rate spike is blood on the hands of you freakers. You all helped millions of people die. We will remember your sanctimonious bullshit and bad faith attacks.

I wont go so far as to say that you all wanted those people to die like you accused us of wanting people to die.

But you are definitely a causal factor in the billions of dollars worth of food being dumped and plowed under right now.; 4/13/20, 11:07 AM
Howard said...: Red Meat for You People. Enjoy!

Dr. SHIVA Ayyadurai, MIT PhD Crushes Dr. Fauci Exposes Birx, Clintons, Bill Gates, And The W.H.O; 4/13/20, 11:09 AM
Howard said...: Good to see you posting Achilles. I hope you and your family are doing well.; 4/13/20, 11:10 AM
Lincolntf said...: Woke up this morning at 5:30 to the sound of my phone buzzing and beeping with a Tornado Warning and then promptly realized that we had lost power. 6 hours later, it came back. If that had been a long blackout, where food spoils, etc., shit might have turned nasty at the grocery stores with everyone restocking their currently loaded fridges and freezers. Fortunately for us the tornadoes skipped our County, but there was at least one fatality in a neighboring County.; 4/13/20, 11:13 AM
Sebastian said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; 4/13/20, 11:13 AM
Sebastian said...: Meanwhile, out in the real world:

"Gannett, the publisher of USA Today, The Detroit Free Press and more than 250 other daily newspapers, has ordered the majority of its 24,000 employees to take five days off per month without pay in April, May and June, staff memos revealed, and executives will take a 25 percent pay cut. Paul Bascobert, the chief executive, said he would not take his salary until the crisis was over.

Then there’s Lee Enterprises and McClatchy:

With more than 70 papers, including The Buffalo News and The St. Louis Post-Dispatch, this national chain has instituted pay cuts and furloughs for its employees, according to a staff memo from Kevin Mowbray, the chief executive. Executives have taken a 20 percent pay cut"

Oh, well, more "marginal businesses," as we've been told here. Serves people right for going into journalism.

At some point, even the MSM might have a question or two about the disastrous consequences of the alarmism they fueled. As remaining journalists begin to fear for their jobs, we can expect a battle of the tropes: "What if we hadn't" will soon have to compete with "Did we have to?"; 4/13/20, 11:14 AM
tim in vermont said...: "30-50% of people tested in Chicago had anti-bodies for COVID-19. This pattern matches studies in California and other places.”

That sounds great! Do you have a link?

Here are the deaths for the Chicago area for the past couple weeks, not including a few in nearby Wisconsin or Gary.

0
2
1
1
2
3
4
3
8
10
13
27
15
29
69
76
70

Tell me what that is if not “exponential”?

Actually, don’t bother. I am done with this shit show. It seems like pointing out uncomfortable facts means that I want to destroy America rather than inform decisions, like I thought I was doing. I should get back to my writing my epic. I really dislike being on opposite sides from narcisco.; 4/13/20, 11:17 AM
Lewis Wetzel said...: Tell me what that is if not “exponential”?
Half a bell curve?
What good does it do to describe something as exponential? You aren't seeing all of the curve, just the part of it that looks exponential. Exponential growth is unstable, at some point it ends and flattens. If you look at the graph for March1 through April 1, it looks exponential, and everyone on earth should be dead sometime in July.
From November 1st to January 1st, the curve showing ordinary, annual deaths from flu is exponential.; 4/13/20, 11:25 AM
Mark said...: Tell me what that is if not “exponential”?

There is growth to be sure, but the unevenness of some of it suggests some lag in testing results.; 4/13/20, 11:25 AM
gilbar said...: 76
70
Tell me what that is if not “exponential”?

ommm; the word that comes most readily to mind, is: DECREASE
dumbass; 4/13/20, 11:27 AM
wild chicken said...: It's cases that are supposed to increase exponentially.; 4/13/20, 11:32 AM
tim in vermont said...: "You aren't seeing all of the curve, “

That’s the data we have. It fits nicely to an exponential curve. Aparently gilbar thinks that real world data should fit curves perfectly, just like the data the Chicoms are giving us fit the curves exactly.

But I hope that the one day means a lot, I hope that a single swallow makes a summer. That would be great.

"It's cases that are supposed to increase exponentially.”

Deaths are some percentage of cases. You can’t trust cases because the testing is done or not done for lots of reasons.

This is what I mean by what a waste posting on this site is.; 4/13/20, 11:34 AM
David53 said...: I currently have an Alaska cruise of out Seattle booked for the end of July. What's your best guess on whether it will be canceled or not?; 4/13/20, 11:34 AM
David53 said...: Out of*; 4/13/20, 11:36 AM
JPS said...: Achilles,

Fauci's with the NIH, not the CDC.

Howard,

Ayyadurai claims to have invented the question mark.

No, sorry! (What's that from?) But I was Googling to remind myself what his Ph.D. is in (computational systems biology), and I see that he claims in court to be the inventor of e-mail. Which certainly brightens a dull day.; 4/13/20, 11:39 AM
Anthony said...: Window installers came over today and I shook their hands. So there.; 4/13/20, 11:44 AM
tim in vermont said...: The “dumbass” was pretty funny. I am going to give gilbar credit for being sarcastic, and take back any comment I aimed at him.; 4/13/20, 11:44 AM
wild chicken said...: If cases are still doubling every 6 days then the US will be over a million next week, right on schedule.; 4/13/20, 11:48 AM
hawkeyedjb said...: @David53, I have a transatlantic voyage, i.e. "cruise of a lifetime" scheduled for departure on June 14 out of NY. I'm not even sure there will be any hotels available in NY at that time, let alone ocean departures. I put my chances at 1%. Hope yours turns out better.; 4/13/20, 11:49 AM
hawkeyedjb said...: "Window installers came over today and I shook their hands. So there."

You rebel, you! Do you live in Michigan? That might be a jailing offense.; 4/13/20, 11:50 AM
Achilles said...: Howard said...
Good to see you posting Achilles. I hope you and your family are doing well.

We are doing well. We are relatively wealthy just like all Americans.

But this is all bullshit and I am even more angry than usual.

I am stuck with a bunch of people that do not know how good they have it here and also have no idea why they have it so good.

They will also largely be spared from the consequences of the COVID-19 hoax. Millions around the world will not be so lucky.; 4/13/20, 11:51 AM
Arashi said...: Beautiful day here in the greater pugetopolis. Roof guys are here cleaning the roof, putting down moss killer and then will clean the windows.

Oh, and here in the greater pugetopolis, if you go look at our numbers that are being reported, we are still flat and have been for about two weeks.

But I am sure we will go up exponentially and all die by July. Damn - looks like I miss my next birthday. But at least I won't have to get my fancy RealID drivers license required by the state becasue they give licenses to illegals, making the rest of us pay extra to have a license we can use to fly, get in federal buildings, etc. (or carry our passport all of the time); 4/13/20, 11:56 AM
MadisonMan said...: I'd hate to install windows today. Too much wind for windows.; 4/13/20, 11:56 AM
Howard said...: Well Achilles if you weren't pissed off then I would know something was wrong with you. I'm glad you and your family are doing well, it look like early on you guys were going to get hammered up there in Seattle.; 4/13/20, 12:02 PM
tim in vermont said...: Here are the same kinds of numbers for Des Moines.

0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
4
0
0
0
0
0
1

It seems like with travel restrictions most of America could get back to work, but those restrictions are likely unconstitutional.; 4/13/20, 12:03 PM
Bay Area Guy said...: Better than the MIT guy above, is Dr. John Ioannidis - the famed epidemiologist from Stanford

He is an unusual beast. He has published a ton in the literature, his most famous paper is, "Why Most Published Research Findings are False"

Doc Ioannidis is not Superman, though. If he gets too far out on a limb, even he can get his funding cut off by the powers that be.

But at least he is taking a fresh, genuinely scientific look at the issue.

And, he has provided the best analogy ever:

“A population-wide case fatality rate of 0.05% is lower than seasonal influenza. If that is the true rate, locking down the world with potentially tremendous social and financial consequences may be totally irrational. It’s like an elephant being attacked by a house cat. Frustrated and trying to avoid the cat, the elephant accidentally jumps off a cliff and dies.”; 4/13/20, 12:04 PM
Lewis Wetzel said...: Blogger wild chicken said...
If cases are still doubling every 6 days then the US will be over a million next week, right on schedule.
4/13/20, 11:48 AM

The important word is "if."
If cases in the US double every six days, between weeks 8 & 9 every single American will be infected. Can we end the shutdown, then?; 4/13/20, 12:04 PM
Big Mike said...: @tim, curve-fitting is exactly how not to build a model. I tried getting people to see this by pointing out that curve-fitting leads to 800 million Americans catching the disease in short order, but that was apparently too subtle for most. (Ah, guys, there are only 336 million Americans, give or take.); 4/13/20, 12:08 PM
daskol said...: Be careful with Ioannidas, he's a slippery one. We may be overreacting, we may not be, there's not enough data, etc. He's splitting it down the middle, saying provocative sounding things but really measuring his statements so that he can't be found too far out on a limb no matter how things shake down. That's a sign of a fraud.; 4/13/20, 12:10 PM
Dust Bunny Queen said...: Well.....a bit of good news from small town rural America

While the restaurants are taking a major hit and may never recover....our local retail stores (hardware, grocery,farm/garden supply, appliances, auto parts, general like Dollar General) are doing a bang up business.

Because it is far to "big city" and big box retailers people are shopping locally. They figure the distance, the crowds and potential for infection not worth it. People are paying MORE for the local products. Shopping locally.

In the olden days, before big box stores and before the roads were improved going to "big town" was often a two day trip due to time, weather and overall PITA to get there. This small area was a hubbub of mercantile activity. Even had an auto dealership,craft fabric store, multiple grocery stores, meat market, clothing, shoes, you name it.

Every cloud/silver lining; 4/13/20, 12:11 PM
David Begley said...: Nebraska has had 17 deaths; 6 being in Douglas County (Omaha). Nebraska has 93 counties.; 4/13/20, 12:11 PM
West Texas Intermediate Crude said...: I’m so old I remember when the President’s Top Men and Women were selling the concept of Flattening the Curve. We were told that sacrificing our liberties and economy were essential to prevent bodies piling up outside our ICUs as doctors and nurses considered suicide to keep them from having to make the Sophie’s Choice of who was to get the precious, life-saving ventilator, which we were short of by the tens of thousands.
None of that came to pass, and it wasn’t because we all behaved like scared sheep. It was because the models were wrong. We have just passed through what was subsequently sold to us as a Week of Hell. Several thousand people died, possibly over the normal death rate, but we can’t know because the Death Certification rules were changed to allow dying with the virus to equal dying due to the virus. Maybe because if the virus is involved, hospitals and doctors are guaranteed payment. Too cynical, I’m sure. Now we have an actual, ongoing economic disaster to deal with. My county of >300,000 has had zero deaths, ~70 positive virus tests, less than 10 people hospitalized due to or maybe just with the virus. Thousands of shuttered shops, tens of thousands suddenly unemployed. All to Flatten the Curve, that did not need flattening.
Time to admit that they were wrong, and beg forgiveness. Maybe by November, the people will be in a forgiving mood. I’m wouldn’t count on it.; 4/13/20, 12:13 PM
Charlie Currie said...: Lincolntf said:
"Woke up this morning at 5:30 to the sound of my phone buzzing and beeping with a Tornado Warning and then promptly realized that we had lost power. 6 hours later, it came back. If that had been a long blackout, where food spoils, etc., shit might have turned nasty at the grocery stores with everyone restocking their currently loaded fridges and freezers. Fortunately for us the tornadoes skipped our County, but there was at least one fatality in a neighboring County."

My daughter and grandkids live just north of Austin and this describes her Easter morning.

Glad you're well and still fully stocked.; 4/13/20, 12:16 PM
Achilles said...: JPS said...
Achilles,

Fauci's with the NIH, not the CDC.

Ok.

He is still a lying weasel. Just wait. He will do irreparable harm to the country soon.

What does the CDC actual do?.

We have at least 5 federal agencies that seem to think they should be calling the shots and telling us we are all going to die.; 4/13/20, 12:16 PM
Bay Area Guy said...: @daskol,

Be careful with Ioannidas, he's a slippery one.

Compared to what? Fauci? Birx? (asked by Henny Youngman).

That video was mid-March. There's political pressure involved. There's grant money involved.

Go read his papers and other follow-up videos, and judge it on the merits.

If he's wrong, point out how he's wrong on the merits.

There's another Doc at Stanford, who is leading the ramdomized testing studies in California.; 4/13/20, 12:17 PM
Original Mike said...: "Gannett, the publisher of USA Today, The Detroit Free Press and more than 250 other daily newspapers, has ordered the majority of its 24,000 employees to take five days off per month without pay in April, May and June, staff memos revealed, and executives will take a 25 percent pay cut. Paul Bascobert, the chief executive, said he would not take his salary until the crisis was over."

Until the crisis is over? If you can't sell papers in the middle of a pandemic, maybe you're doing it wrong.; 4/13/20, 12:17 PM
Sebastian said...: West Texas: "None of that came to pass, and it wasn’t because we all behaved like scared sheep. It was because the models were wrong . . . My county of >300,000 has had zero deaths, ~70 positive virus tests, less than 10 people hospitalized due to or maybe just with the virus. Thousands of shuttered shops, tens of thousands suddenly unemployed. All to Flatten the Curve, that did not need flattening."

That will have to be part of The Reckoning. John H called for retribution. What say you?; 4/13/20, 12:18 PM
I Callahan said...: Tell me what that is if not “exponential”?

Here would be "exponential":

2
4
8
16
32
64
128
256
512
1024
2048
4096
8192

That's the lowest exponent you can use (2). Using any higher number would send those numbers through the roof.

Those are slightly increasing numbers, but certainly not "exponential".; 4/13/20, 12:19 PM
tim in vermont said...: It’s still simmering in Seattle, but under control

15
22
11
9
13
2
22
11
13
20
12
25
13
17
17
24
8 <<- April 11

"curve-fitting is exactly how not to build a model. “

Right, and you are a retired engineer, I believe, so you understand that the model behaves one way in an environment where there is no immunity. It’s exponential, like rabbits without predators, like tribbles, but once you get some level of herd immunity it’s like rabbits with predators eating more and more of the baby bunnies before they can grow up. That’s a different term in the equation that moderates the results. Right now that second term is negligible, and it sure looks like the exponential model is working fine in Chicago. Of course it can’t go forever, victims run out, but it’s green fields right now for it. There are millions of people to infect before it starts running into any real resistance.

That data is not from a “model” it’s observed in Chicago.; 4/13/20, 12:19 PM
tim in vermont said...: "If you can't sell papers in the middle of a pandemic, maybe you're doing it wrong.”

LOL; 4/13/20, 12:20 PM
Bay Area Guy said...: Fauci on Feb 17, regarding masks:

The only people who need masks are those who are already infected to keep from exposing others. The masks sold at drugstores aren't even good enough to truly protect anyone, Fauci said.

"If you look at the masks that you buy in a drug store, the leakage around that doesn't really do much to protect you," he said. "People start saying, 'Should I start wearing a mask?' Now, in the United States, there is absolutely no reason whatsoever to wear a mask."

Lost down the Fauci memory hole.

The guy sounds articulate and sounds knowledable, and all these dimwitted, incurious souls listen with bated breath on every proclamation he makes. And, yet, he reverses himself, regularly, without a care in the world.; 4/13/20, 12:22 PM
Churchy LaFemme: said...: Paul Bascobert, the chief executive, said he would not take his salary until the crisis was over."

Until the crisis is over? If you can't sell papers in the middle of a pandemic, maybe you're doing it wrong.

Or it can't be done. If they can't sell news now, they can't do it, and need to accept there is no way to survive this with anything like the current format and level of staffing.; 4/13/20, 12:22 PM
daskol said...: I read Ioannidis' lay publications on COVID-19 and watched several of his television appearances. I'm aware he was central to publicizing the replication crisis in the social sciences, and that he's among the most widely cited epidemiologists. I'm still going to say he speaks and behaves like a fraud: he's casting doubt that the measures we've taken were necessary, but if you listen closely, he's also saying that perhaps they were necessary and will prove to have been helpful. He's laying the groundwork for a big I told you so later on without actually taking a strong position now. That particular area in which he's showing skill, call it the political side of being a scientific public intellectual, may account for his renown as much as any major contribution he's made to science (for example, what exactly has he done to improve the science since getting famous over popularizing the replication crisis?). He's good at being a famous scientist, but that doesn't mean that he's saying anything worthwhile. I think he's full of shit, based on a careful parsing of his weak position.; 4/13/20, 12:24 PM
Escu Design said...: Nice pictures. Beautifull peisage.; 4/13/20, 12:24 PM
West Texas Intermediate Crude said...: Sebastian-
Ballot Box retribution, at the very least.
I wish I could participate in the defenestration of Michigan Gov Whitmire, but fortunately I live in a less crazy state. Our Gov Abbot has stated that he wants to loosen things up a bit, so I'm willing to cut him some slack. For now. I did notice that our city opened a local park on my morning walk. I did not see any publicity. Maybe that is a good way to do it.; 4/13/20, 12:24 PM
tim in vermont said...: "Those are slightly increasing numbers, but certainly not "exponential”.”

People don’t understand the terms being used, so they misunderstand what is being said. It’s doubling every three or four days in Chicago, is that fast enough for you? Or was three weeks ago, there is a lag between infections and deaths.

Here is a nice little explanation with simple examples of exponential growth.

https://www.mathsisfun.com/algebra/exponential-growth.html

It will even explain to you how to figure out the growth rate from data.; 4/13/20, 12:25 PM
tim in vermont said...: Actually, I Callahan, take the first six values in your little example and imagine three days between them and look at the Chicago data. Then ask yourself where it would have gone without intervention.

I will do it for you

1 1
1
2. 2
3
4. 4
3
8. 8
10
13. 16
27.
15
29. 32
69
76. 64; 4/13/20, 12:30 PM
Lincolntf said...: Thanks, Charlie, I trust that your daughter also weathered the storm(s).; 4/13/20, 12:32 PM
Bay Area Guy said...: @daskol,

So, tell me which scientist -- on this issue -- has got the answer right.

If you don't have one, you are just being a curmudgeon.; 4/13/20, 12:33 PM
Achilles said...: You freakers should stop using exponential. It makes you look dumb.

What you are trying to describe is more like compounding to be honest.

But the fact you are accepting numbers from obvious fraud's is problematic from the start.

Who said this in March?:

“Speaking at a White House press conference tonight to provide updates on the COVID-19 Coronavirus situation, Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergies and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), told reporters if you are healthy, there is no reason to eschew cruise vacations. ‘If you are a healthy young person, there is no reason if you want to go on a cruise ship, go on a cruise ship.'”; 4/13/20, 12:36 PM
Arashi said...: Achilles - everybody knows it was that xenophobic nazi DJT. /sarc

Dr. Fauci waffles so much, I wonder if he used to be a cook for Waffle House.; 4/13/20, 12:37 PM
Bay Area Guy said...: First, Chris Cuomo -- and now George Stephy.

It'd be nice if they told us what the symptoms they had, why they got tested, what treatments they are using, and How's their current health?

We'd maybe learn some stuff.; 4/13/20, 12:37 PM
Original Mike said...: "Actually, don’t bother. I am done with this shit show."

I knew this wasn't going to happen.; 4/13/20, 12:38 PM
tim in vermont said...: "You freakers should stop using exponential. It makes you look dumb.

What you are trying to describe is more like compounding to be honest. “

There’s another one. Compounding and exponential growth are pretty much the same thing. The math is the same. You can’t compound forever at a high rate or there won’t be enough money in the world. It’s just that you guys hear it as “explodential” or something, which is not what it means.; 4/13/20, 12:40 PM
tim in vermont said...: “I knew this wasn't going to happen”

Sorry I won’t go away. It’s gotten fun again.; 4/13/20, 12:42 PM
daskol said...: Bay Area Guy, I don't think "evidence based" scientists or even most physicians are particularly well trained or situated to "get this right." Mostly they're a bunch of nerds sitting around waiting for data--and, like Ioannidis--warning us about the risk of taking action without data (at a time when swift action could be imperative to saving lives), or they're modelers putting shitty data into complex models developed for other diseases and scaring the living shit out of everyone with doomsday predictions. Nerds are not useful at this time. Data is still unavailable, and the models are still as a result pretty useless. This remains more of a risk mgmt matter than a scientific or even medical matter at the moment, so I would seek info not from nerds in lab coats but from those who think about risk in complex interdependent systems and imagine long tailed distributions in which very low probability events can have severe consequences--who understand the asymmetry of risk in doing nothing vs. doing something, and don't need to wait for the data to recommend a course of action (and can continuously adapt as information comes in).; 4/13/20, 12:44 PM
Bay Area Guy said...: You guys are getting lost among exponential growth, logarithmic growth, and geometric growth.

It's to get lost in that dense egg-headed jungle. So, no worries.

Start with deaths per million population. It's cleaner.

Every state with less than 800 deaths (after 3 months) ain't experiencing exponential, logarithmic or geometric growth in the death rate. That's just mostly flu-related noise.

So, except for NY, NJ, Mich, Louisiana -- I'd reopen the remaining 46 states for work. Provided, of course, that elderly, sick, and symptomatic folks still stay at home.

Have a good Monday!; 4/13/20, 12:46 PM
Original Mike said...: "Sorry I won’t go away. It’s gotten fun again."

Fine, but when you lament about becoming a pariah (which I think was an overstatement) on a site from which you have drawn comfort, recognize your own hand in the matter.; 4/13/20, 12:47 PM
Bay Area Guy said...: @daskol,

You are revealing yourself to be a theoretician, concern troll. Pick a current scientist or doctor or someone else who you think has it right on this issue and share his paper or video.; 4/13/20, 12:49 PM
Arashi said...: Bay Area Guy - I think I agree with you one the other46 states, unfortunatley for mine - Washington - our 'esteemed' governor Inslee is thinking real hard about extending the stay-in-place orders past the current May 4th. I am sure if DJT recommends opening up gradually during May with restrictions\guidance, Inslee will keep pushing us out furhter.

At least we can buy seeds, paint and American flags at Home Depot, so we have that going for us.; 4/13/20, 12:54 PM
daskol said...: I think Yaneer Bar Yam has been consistently on point, as has Joe Norman and of course Nassim Taleb and probabilistic stats guy Harry Crane, who published a very strong criticism of Ioannidis' "more data" position, and more generally has an outstanding bullshit detector. Very readable and now peer-reviewed paper here.

In general, I think commentary from these philosophers of risk and probabilistic statisticians has been more valuable than conventional scientific output given this is an ongoing situation and a novel virus.; 4/13/20, 12:54 PM
tim in vermont said...: "Every state with less than 800 deaths (after 3 months) ain't experiencing exponential, logarithmic or geometric growth in the death rate. That's just mostly flu-related noise.”

That’s just the quickest way to throw away everything we have gained against the virus at the cost of trillions of dollars and follow Italy and NYC through this the hard way. But you and Mayor DeBlasio agree on a lot, or he did agree with you a couple months ago.; 4/13/20, 12:57 PM
daskol said...: We are making decisions under conditions of such uncertainty that conventional science or "evidence based" approaches, whether they are used to cast doubt on the extraordinary measures being taken to flatten the curve or whether they say we're all doomed unless we take still more extraordinary measures, are useless. We're managing risk, not doing science or medical experiments.; 4/13/20, 12:58 PM
Original Mike said...: If I learned anything in my 4 decades as a scientist, it's that to take a few data points and then extrapolate well past the supported region doesn't teach you very much.; 4/13/20, 12:59 PM
sam said...: The important word is "if."
If cases in the US double every six days, between weeks 8 & 9 every single American will be infected. Can we end the shutdown, then?.; 4/13/20, 1:00 PM
tim in vermont said...: "recognize your own hand in the matter.”

I am the same as I always was. I never really did care if people listened to me or not. I always said what I thought. I always thought about what I said. I never posted anything I didn’t believe about anything important.; 4/13/20, 1:00 PM
Bay Area Guy said...: @daskol,

I think Yaneer Bar Yam has been consistently on point, as has Joe Norman and of course Nassim Taleb and probabilistic stats guy Harry Crane,..

Ok, well, I appreciate it, will read these 3 guys and give you my assessment.; 4/13/20, 1:03 PM
daskol said...: The fact that the Javits center field hospital is mostly empty and that only a few of the thousands of beds on the USS Mercy are occupied: is that a failure in planning, or is that successful risk mgmt? It's the latter: it would have been unthinkably awful to need those beds and not have them, and needing them was a possibility: we couldn't know what the actual odds were, but we can take action to put those fail safes into place because the cost of not having them and needing them is appallingly high.; 4/13/20, 1:04 PM
Drago said...: Tim in Vermont: "That’s just the quickest way to throw away everything we have gained against the virus at the cost of trillions of dollars and follow Italy and NYC through this the hard way."

We have probably already exceeded a cost of 5 to 8 $Trillion dollars, so unless you address that sunk cost already reached by your preferred and implemented course of action, why should anyone listen to you expressing "concern" over potentially other $Trillions of dollars potentially sacrificed over a different potential course of action?; 4/13/20, 1:04 PM
CStanley said...: Looks like a lot of folks need this review:

https://www.khanacademy.org/math/algebra/x2f8bb11595b61c86:exponential-growth-decay/x2f8bb11595b61c86:exponential-vs-linear-growth/v/exponential-vs-linear-growth

It will come in handy while your kids are getting homeschooled and need help with their math, too.; 4/13/20, 1:05 PM
Bay Area Guy said...: "I always thought about what I said. I never posted anything I didn’t believe about anything important."

I sincerely believe that you believe in the senseless twaddle you post here:)

Lighten up, Francis....; 4/13/20, 1:05 PM
Drago said...: The idea that whatever we do in terms of reducing restrictions on operations in the US will mean that rest of country will look like Italy and NYC is beyond stupid.

Yeah Tim in Vermont, the same conditions/factors involved in the Italy and NYC outbreaks are totally representative of the rest of our nation.

Uh huh.

Sure they are.; 4/13/20, 1:06 PM
daskol said...: Nassim Taleb's central insight regarding our inability to model and plan for tail risk using our conventional statistical models, whether the domain is finance and pricing options or dealing with a pandemic, is about as fresh now as it seems every 10-15 years when some utterly unanticipated thing manifests and knocks us on our asses. His hedge fund returned 3600% in March, btw. Wish I had taken to heart not just his philosophy of life but also in terms of capital allocation.; 4/13/20, 1:06 PM
gilbar said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; 4/13/20, 1:07 PM
tim in vermont said...: "If I learned anything in my 4 decades as a scientist, “

Really? I only looked at Chicago because Achilles brought it up, and sure as shootin’ there was the same exponential pattern that epidemiologists would predict. It’s not some sample from a small city with a lot of statistical noise. It’s from a huge metropolitan area.

Do you think that the data from Chicago is some kind of white noise? What would you, as a scientist, calculate the odds that that exponential sequence of deaths would appear as random noise?; 4/13/20, 1:07 PM
Arashi said...: One of the problems with the data we are getting from the states and other countries is the lack of consistancy. Everybody is not using the same methodology for determining deaths, infected, tested, etc. And as a software engineer with a fair bit of database design and use behind me - if the data isn't consistant, then it isn't worth much and making broad based decisions on it is even more suspect.

Also, if the 5 week bit were real, then here in Washington we are past that number this week (last two weeks of March and all of April)- so can we stop the freakout? Well of course not, as we have not derived the maximum political gain yet.; 4/13/20, 1:08 PM
gilbar said...: serious question
does ANYBODY still pretend, that there will be more total deaths this year, than were predicted last year?
Sure, there will be a LOT More deaths this year, than last year;
['cause there will be a LOT more people than last year]
But when you add the 200,000 or 86,000 or 40,000 people that die from Covid-19...
to ALL THE OTHER people that die this year....
Will that be more or less than total number this year was "supposed to have"?

Thousands of people are NOT going to die of the flu this year ('cause they're already dead)
Thousands of people are NOT going to die from 'under laying conditions' ('cause they're already dead)
Thousands of people aren't going to die in traffic accidents, 'cause they aren't driving
[unfortunately, Thousands of people will die from suicides/drug ODs/etc]

When you add it all up.... More, or Less Total Deaths??
If it IS more; they'll say: SEE? it was NECESSARY to eliminate civil rights!!!
If it is LESS; they'll say: SEE? it was GOOD! that we eliminated civil rights!!!; 4/13/20, 1:08 PM
MadisonMan said...: If I learned anything in my 4 decades as a scientist, it's that to take a few data points and then extrapolate well past the supported region doesn't teach you very much.

Likewise, if you use a forecast model that is wrong, and then use it again after tweaking it (to "correct" things), you're likely still using a bad forecast model.

I don't have much faith in Evers recognizing the idiocy of his decisions however -- he is surrounded by too many Yes Men. And just today I read in the paper how the crowding on the Madison bike paths is "untenable". How unfortunate that the Democratic Party in Wisconsin feels it needs to save people. One should be able to trust the citizenry to do the right thing, if you give them facts.; 4/13/20, 1:09 PM
Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...: Drago said...
The idea that whatever we do in terms of reducing restrictions on operations in the US will mean that rest of country will look like Italy and NYC is beyond stupid.

I largely agree with this, with the caveat that it requires constant and extensive testing to ensure that it is in fact correct.; 4/13/20, 1:10 PM
Drago said...: Arashi: "One of the problems with the data we are getting from the states and other countries is the lack of consistancy. Everybody is not using the same methodology for determining deaths, infected, tested, etc. And as a software engineer with a fair bit of database design and use behind me - if the data isn't consistant, then it isn't worth much and making broad based decisions on it is even more suspect."

shhhh!

You're going to drive Tim in Vermont into therapy. There is no time for rigorous analysis. Now is the time to crater all civil rights, keep the country shut down for as long as it takes, drive the nation into long-term depression.

If it saves just one life it will make it all worthwhile. Plus, some people get to virtue signal from not until kingdom come, which is really a benefit beyond valuation.; 4/13/20, 1:10 PM
tim in vermont said...: First you have to say something interesting before I will play, Drago.; 4/13/20, 1:11 PM
William said...: Booking a cruise is the triumph of hope over experience.; 4/13/20, 1:12 PM
Original Mike said...: "Do you think that the data from Chicago is some kind of white noise? What would you, as a scientist, calculate the odds that that exponential sequence of deaths would appear as random noise?"

I wouldn't waste my time, because it's not going to tell me what to expect going forward.; 4/13/20, 1:13 PM
Howard said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; 4/13/20, 1:13 PM
tim in vermont said...: "if you use a forecast model that is wrong, and then use it again after tweaking it "

You should have seen all of my posts on back test overfitting when I was arguing with the peak oil people. Whatever happened to those guys?; 4/13/20, 1:14 PM
Bay Area Guy said...: @daskol,

Re Bar Yam. Good guy, physicist, lotta published papers in the literature. Wrote:

Any size community that isolates from travelers can use a 5-week lockdown strategy. Note: Lockdowns include testing, mild case isolation, quarantine of contacts. masks, and allows for transport of essential goods. Then return to normal.

The best thing - he makes a testable hypothesis (Did the 5 week lockdown work or not?). Also, I love the fact that he has a fixed end date (5th week).

He's off on a buncha other stuff, mostly just missing important stuff, but, Yes, thumbs up on this guy. Not as good as Ioannidis, though.; 4/13/20, 1:14 PM
Achilles said...: tim in vermont said...
"You freakers should stop using exponential. It makes you look dumb.

What you are trying to describe is more like compounding to be honest. “

There’s another one. Compounding and exponential growth are pretty much the same thing. The math is the same. You can’t compound forever at a high rate or there won’t be enough money in the world. It’s just that you guys hear it as “explodential” or something, which is not what it means.

No they aren't. They are not the same thing.

Exponential growth by definition means growth of the exponent.

In this situation it is a time series. The exponent doesn't grow. N grows. R sub i where R is constant and i grows. You factor out i-1 and put it in N. As N grows R necessarily shrinks.

That is not exponential growth.

Nothing about COVID-19 is exponential. It is a complete fraud.

This outbreak is behaving exactly like you would expect if it had been spreading since December with a flu like mortality rate outside of specific groups with known risk factors.

There was never any reason to give up our freedom and let tyrants take over the country.; 4/13/20, 1:15 PM
Drago said...: ARM: "I largely agree with this, with the caveat that it requires constant and extensive testing to ensure that it is in fact correct."

I agree.

I do think this episode will require something we've never done before and something we might never do again: widespread testing for anti-body presence in the population at large.

It doesn't have to be overnight but over weeks and months as people engage health care providers and kids ramp up to return to school in the fall and businesses start bringing back employees to keep us out of a depression, there should be testing of as many people as possible.

I suspect we will find a death rate commensurate with a serious flu (not saying this is the flu, but it doesn't have to be to have a death rate commensurate with one) and of course there will be never-to-be-resolved arguments for the next decade over what the basis for that death rate outcome.

But for now, Sham-peachment III is already in full swing so there is no way to avoid the political arguments that are coming.

ARM, did you actually read the BBC article I posted a few nights ago in one of our typical back and forths where the EU commissioners were very fearful of the ChiCom PR/propaganda effort to make China look like the bad buy and transfer guilt to Western nations and undermine western nations relations with other countries?; 4/13/20, 1:15 PM
Howard said...: Drago has gotten weak battling Chuck over the last few years. It's like that scene in Seinfeld where Kramer is dominating his karate class of elementary school kids; 4/13/20, 1:15 PM
CStanley said...: That's the lowest exponent you can use (2).

What happened to all the numbers between 1 and 2?; 4/13/20, 1:16 PM
Drago said...: tim in vermont: "First you have to say something interesting before I will play, Drago."

I don't need you to "play" to bludgeon your stupidity on this subject.; 4/13/20, 1:17 PM
William said...: On the news this morning, a transit worker posted a video of the passengers on his night shift subway run: car after car of the homeless stretched out in the subway cars. The homeless have found a home on the MTA.....I saw this video just once and no more. My guess is that news of this is being suppressed. The subway is a dangerous place, but if essential workers realize just how dangerous, they might not show up for work......I live in NYC. I doubt if I will ever use the subway again.; 4/13/20, 1:17 PM
Drago said...: Come on Howard. Surely by now you've cribbed some notes from one of your kids that you can pawn off as an original thought.; 4/13/20, 1:18 PM
tim in vermont said...: "I wouldn't waste my time, because it's not going to tell me what to expect going forward.”

It’s not going to tell you what you want to hear, is what you mean. We have to open the economy, but with our eyes open, and there are going to have to be responses to hotspots, which are going to happen, the comforting assurances of people who reject all thinking about it notwithstanding. To see them coming, you have to look for them.; 4/13/20, 1:19 PM
Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...: Howard said...
Drago has gotten weak battling Chuck over the last few years. It's like that scene in Seinfeld where Kramer is dominating his karate class of elementary school kids

This is great, but remember that Kramer lost at the end.; 4/13/20, 1:20 PM
Drago said...: Shorter Tim in Vermont: How dare you guys not be concerned about potential $Trillions in lost dollars!

Others: We've already blown thru 5 to 8 $Trillion dollars, what about that?

Tim: ??????....Okay, I'm not playing.; 4/13/20, 1:20 PM
Original Mike said...: "It’s not going to tell you what you want to hear, is what you mean."

No, it's not what I mean. I said what I meant.; 4/13/20, 1:20 PM
Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...: CStanley said...
What happened to all the numbers between 1 and 2?

Or between 1 and -∞ ?; 4/13/20, 1:21 PM
tim in vermont said...: A lot of you guys are trying to fit me out with your favorite straw man suits. It’s fine.; 4/13/20, 1:22 PM
tim in vermont said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; 4/13/20, 1:23 PM
Drago said...: tim in vermont: "A lot of you guys are trying to fit me out with your favorite straw man suits. It’s fine."

There is nothing "straw man"-ish about your refusal to address the 5 to 8 $Trillion that has already been lost while arguing about potentially other trillions being lost following a potentially different course of action.

So, yeah, I don't blame you for wanting to make it about something else.; 4/13/20, 1:23 PM
tim in vermont said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; 4/13/20, 1:25 PM
Drago said...: tim in vermont: "I used to know a guy who wore a lab coat and eye protection at work. He tested the grape jelly for bacteria levels at the factory."

He's probably not working anymore either.; 4/13/20, 1:26 PM
Original Mike said...: "I’m sure you were a scientist for 4 decades too. It shows."

I did quite well, thank you.; 4/13/20, 1:27 PM
Inga said...: It’s interesting and sort of sad to see the same technique used on anyone with a divergent opinion from the majority here. They do it even to each other. Conservatives are an odd bunch, but you do get a few that sound like rational humans.; 4/13/20, 1:27 PM
Bay Area Guy said...: @daskol,

Really liked Harry Crane -- on statistics, Yes, he is a genius. He would run circles around most mortal folks with the numbers.

He's too cocky, though. On this medical/epidemiological issue, he is useless and dangerous. His criticisms of Ioannidis are scattered-brained and weak.

Crane is a sideline critic, opining safely from Rutgers faculty lounge. Knows the theoretical numbers backwards and forwards, but has ZERO understanding of how hard the lockdown will hurt low income folks. Has ZERO professional judgment on infectious disease mortality, either historically or via standard epidemiological methods.

On this issue, thumbs down.

I'd have a beer with him though. Quite a personality.; 4/13/20, 1:28 PM
Drago said...: Inga: "...but you do get a few that sound like rational humans."

Speaking of "rational", any russia collusion/hoax dossier/Kavanaugh rapist/Carter Page spy updates?; 4/13/20, 1:29 PM
Inga said...: “Speaking of "rational", any russia collusion/hoax dossier/Kavanaugh rapist/Carter Page spy updates?”

So boring and predictable. Yawn.; 4/13/20, 1:30 PM
daskol said...: Bay Area Guy, how can you compare what Bar Yam is doing to Ioannidis? Ioannidis is just raising the rather obvious point that we are making decisions without the data to support those decisions. That positions him to be on the right side of this thing if it turns out better than the worst predictions or if it turns out worse. That's a bunch of bullshit. It's a weak position, and it's just posturing. Bar Yam takes a strong position: he will be right or he will be wrong, but he says what we should do and how we should measure it's success or failure. Bar Yam is about managing risk, while Ioannidis is about managing his career as a celebrity scientist. Two different ballgames.; 4/13/20, 1:30 PM
Drago said...: Inga: "So boring and predictable. Yawn."

Indeed you have been, for 4 years. Then you moved through the Ukraine phone call hoax and now you guys are kicking off Sham-peachment III/virus hoax.

So boring and predictable.

Yawn.; 4/13/20, 1:31 PM
Drago said...: Inga: "So boring and predictable. Yawn."

Dems going all out to excuse sexual assault charges against their dementia-riddled candidate.

So boring and predictable. Yawn.; 4/13/20, 1:32 PM
Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...: Inga said...
They do it even to each other.

Yes this has been interesting to watch. For some, it seems, that coping with divergent opinions lies outside their emotional range.; 4/13/20, 1:32 PM
Drago said...: Inga: "So boring and predictable. Yawn."

Dr Fauci hitting all the talk shows to try and rewrite the history of his own public remarks in order to attack Trump.

So boring and predictable. Yawn.

Democrats wanting to use this shutdown as the basis to implement nationwide vote harvesting, increased abortion funding, green new deal, etc.

So boring and predictable. Yawn.; 4/13/20, 1:33 PM
daskol said...: Crane doesn't comment on the medical stuff. He criticizes naive empiricism (Ioannidis' implied position, implied by the "we need more data") as well as poor statistical modeling approaches (and data handling) underlying a lot of epidemiology and other scientific use cases. His critique is on point. He maybe spends too much online time with Nassim Taleb, hence the swagger.; 4/13/20, 1:33 PM
Drago said...: ARM: "Yes this has been interesting to watch. For some, it seems, that coping with divergent opinions lies outside their emotional range."

When you simply parrot the official narratives for the Chinese Communist Party, you don't even consider divergent opinions.; 4/13/20, 1:34 PM
Original Mike said...: "They do it even to each other."

Maybe your categories reside only in your mind.; 4/13/20, 1:34 PM
Inga said...: “They do it even to each other.”

“Yes this has been interesting to watch. For some, it seems, that coping with divergent opinions lies outside their emotional range.”

It’s like watching some psychology experiment.; 4/13/20, 1:35 PM
Drago said...: OM: "Maybe your categories reside only in your mind."

Like all their hoaxes....which continue to this day.; 4/13/20, 1:35 PM
Drago said...: Inga: "It’s like watching some psychology experiment."

Russia collusion, hoax dossier, kavanaugh rapist, Carter Page spy, emoluments!, 25th amendment, Ukraine phone call hoax, now Sham-peachment III.

It's like watching some psychology experiment.; 4/13/20, 1:36 PM
Francisco D said...: Howard said...Drago has gotten weak battling Chuck over the last few years. It's like that scene in Seinfeld where Kramer is dominating his karate class of elementary school kids

I don't think that is the case, Howard. His last zinger (aimed at you) seemed to hit the mark. He just needs new challenges. Chuckles and Inga are too easy and ARM is not worth the time.

While you often have good insights, your zingers seem weak, like calling people cucks and snowflakes. You need to up your game, dude.; 4/13/20, 1:38 PM
Bay Area Guy said...: @daskol,

Nassim Taleb -- he is merely "ok". Here's an early paper with 2 other of your buddies.

It's not bad, but way too superficial. He doesn't cite to any infectious disease mortality data in the US.

Basically, he simply assumes the new Coronavirus is dangerous, assumes it will spread and talks generally about risk management. Ok, great.

The Bar Yam fellow is clearly the best, but not as good as Ioannidis.

But you get credit for bringing these folks to the table. They are smart, interesting people.; 4/13/20, 1:38 PM
Arashi said...: Do you ever wonder if Inga, ARM and others have a book that they keep with them at all times that they keep the names of all the wrong thinkers in, so that when they take over they can hand out some good old fashioned retribution to them all? Make sure all the wrong thinkers go to the proper re-education facilities? Board the correct train, use the correct shower?; 4/13/20, 1:41 PM
daskol said...: This is a perfect criticism of Ioannidis, and others like him who can't take a position or recommend action beyond the collection of data: the basis for action is a precautionary principle, where an asymmetry of risk--potential catastrophe is possible, but odds are impossible to calculate--that drives effective action, not a careful calculation of the probabilities (which would, I suppose, be more scientific, but isn't possible except perhaps in hindsight).; 4/13/20, 1:41 PM
tim in vermont said...: ""I wouldn't waste my time, because it's not going to tell me what to expect going forward.”

A scientist who actually worked with statistics would know that the odds that it arose by random chance in white noise are essentially zero, BTW. He wouldn’t have to calculate it.; 4/13/20, 1:42 PM
Ken B said...: “ I currently have an Alaska cruise of out Seattle booked for the end of July. What's your best guess on whether it will be canceled or not?”

Wrong question. Better to ask, what are the chances it will be allowed to dock without a quarantine period.; 4/13/20, 1:45 PM
Inga said...: “Do you ever wonder if Inga, ARM and others have a book that they keep with them at all times that they keep the names of all the wrong thinkers in, so that when they take over they can hand out some good old fashioned retribution to them all? Make sure all the wrong thinkers go to the proper re-education facilities? Board the correct train, use the correct shower?”

This is pure projection. I just commented on how YOU folks are doing just this to the few dissenters in your midst, even if they are your fellow conservatives. The “wrong thinkers” here even if they are conservatives are receiving the treatment you describe. It’s apparent you don’t see what is in front of your own face in real time. This sort of blindness is a common feature among many conservatives.; 4/13/20, 1:47 PM
daskol said...: Glad you found them interesting. (Dr.) Joe Norman is also a fascinating guy, a former student of Bar Yam's. What these guys all have in common is an approach to risk mgmt best summed up by Crane:

When gambling, think about what's probable.
When hedging, think about what's plausible.
When preparing, think about what's possible.

Real-world risk mgmt. Act early to prevent catastrophic possible consequences of a pandemic of a novel virus. Do what is possible to protect against what is possible, even if you don't have much data, and certainly not enough data to take an evidence-based, scientific approach. Take stock of how things are going and adapt, making decisions under uncertainty but according to sound principles. Within that framework there is room for disagreement about how much longer to continue the nationwide shutdown, or how to proceed from that into something like normalcy, but it provides a guide to action when "evidence-based" people are paralyzed either by uncertainty (lack of data) or fear.; 4/13/20, 1:47 PM
Original Mike said...: "A scientist who actually worked with statistics would know that the odds that it arose by random chance in white noise are essentially zero, BTW. He wouldn’t have to calculate it."

Yes. So?; 4/13/20, 1:48 PM
Lewis Wetzel said...: beloved Commenter AReasonableMan unreasonably said...

Inga said...
They do it even to each other.

Yes this has been interesting to watch. For some, it seems, that coping with divergent opinions lies outside their emotional range.

There is far more intellectual diversity on the right than there is on the Left. Don't believe me? Point to figure on the Left who is pro-Trump.; 4/13/20, 1:49 PM
tim in vermont said...: "It’s interesting and sort of sad to see the same technique used on anyone with a divergent opinion from the majority here.”

I would be lying if I said it wasn’t disappointing and hasn’t opened my eyes to a lot of things. But there are good people here, whom I won’t name check either, because it wouldn’t be doing them any favors.

I would read this blog regardless for rhhardin’s comments alone.; 4/13/20, 1:49 PM
daskol said...: BTW, according to Nassim Taleb, it was a memo from him, Norman and Bar Yam that made it to senior Trump advisors that triggered the late January China travel ban.; 4/13/20, 1:49 PM
Ken B said...: Big Mike said...
@tim, curve-fitting is exactly how not to build a model.
——-

I made the same point about the IHMC models. They cannot properly model changes in underlying conditions like behavior without a serious lag.; 4/13/20, 1:49 PM
MayBee said...: Bay Area Guy said...
First, Chris Cuomo -- and now George Stephy.

It'd be nice if they told us what the symptoms they had, why they got tested, what treatments they are using, and How's their current health?

We'd maybe learn some stuff.

Yes!!

Every story about COVID should have some useful information. Why were you tested? How did you get the test? What were your symptoms and what are they now?
In some ways it seems silly that our whole nation is shut down for a virus that news people work right through even when they have it. So maybe they should share some thoughts on that,

Then I want to know when people are supposed to get a test, and where they go if they are uninsured or don't have their own doctors.; 4/13/20, 1:52 PM
Arashi said...: Inga - I have learned from reading this blog that you in particular are a bomb thrower. When called on it, you get personal. Or use your daughter as a foil.

You are TWANLOC.; 4/13/20, 1:52 PM
Nonapod said...: One trend I greatly dislike around here is posters who accuse other posters of wanting to destroy the country simply because they may disagree one way or the other. Especially when you have posters who have historically tended to agree and now are suddenly at each others metaphorical throats. It all seems a bit over the top to imply that you're right and therefore anyone who happens to disagree with your assessment of the situation can only be some sort of monster who either doesn't care if loads of people die from this virus or wants America to become some kind of police state/authoritarian regime.

Whether you think the current situation was an overreaction, the reaction was correct, or it was an underreaction (though in fairness, I can't recall anyone around here who has argued that we should shut down even more than we already have, but I'm sure someone will correct me if I'm wrong), people's egos seem to get tangled up in this more than ever. Does insulting people make you feel better? I guess is does.; 4/13/20, 1:54 PM
Ken B said...: “ That's the lowest exponent you can use (2).”

This is rank mathematical ignorance. You teachers owe you a refund.; 4/13/20, 1:54 PM
Inga said...: “Inga - I have learned from reading this blog that you in particular are a bomb thrower. When called on it, you get personal. Or use your daughter as a foil.”

Again, projection. You threw a bomb, I reacted. Then you accuse me of getting personal by YOU bringing up my daughter. Are you really this stupid? I have to think, yes you are.; 4/13/20, 1:55 PM
MayBee said...: I just commented on how YOU folks are doing just this to the few dissenters in your midst

I mean....I guess I'm not even sure who the dissenters are in this case? Because ISTM people who think the lockdown is too much have been accused of not caring if people die. So are they the dissenters?

IMHO, there's no reason anyone has to agree with anything. It doesn't surprise me at all that people her disagree with each other, and it seems kind of weird to point that out as weird.; 4/13/20, 1:55 PM
daskol said...: The thing about the economic catastrophe we have brought on ourselves is that it wasn't really a choice of avoiding economic catastrophe or bringing it on: there were, perhaps still are, plausible pandemic outcomes that could have caused catastrophic damage if we hadn't shut things down. It's not a trade off between our economic wellbeing and public health. The public health outcome could have been so bad as to have created a deeper and longer lasting economic catastrophe than what we've wrought. We just don't know: we didn't know a few weeks ago, and don't know now how things might have gone. The shutdown may be economically beneficial compared to the alternative in the long run, even if the virus is not as virulent as many people thought.; 4/13/20, 1:56 PM
Inga said...: “One trend I greatly dislike around here is posters who accuse other posters of wanting to destroy the country simply because they may disagree one way or the other. Especially when you have posters who have historically tended to agree and now are suddenly at each others metaphorical throats. It all seems a bit over the top to imply that you're right and therefore anyone who happens to disagree with your assessment of the situation can only be some sort of monster who either doesn't care if loads of people die from this virus or wants America to become some kind of police state/authoritarian regime.”

Ah, a rational observation!; 4/13/20, 1:56 PM
Bay Area Guy said...: Boris Johnson - tests negative.

So, what ordinary, garden-variety illness did he have before he was admitted to the hospital?

Or, I reckon, what magical treatment did UK doctors provide to transform his "infected" status to "uninfected" status?

Inquiring minds wanna know....; 4/13/20, 1:57 PM
walter said...: Vegans rejoice! (just don't hi-5)
Smithfield shutting U.S. pork plant indefinitely, warns of meat shortages during pandemic; 4/13/20, 1:58 PM
Freeman Hunt said...: "I would read this blog regardless for rhhardin’s comments alone.

Hear, hear!; 4/13/20, 1:59 PM
Drago said...: You know, I really can't fault the dem leaders for believing they can simply rewrite history each day.

Simply look at Inga's and ARM's "contributions" here. Each day they flip and flop and spin around at the whim of whatever that day's dem talking points happen to be. That's what makes Biden's candidacy so pitch perfect in exposing that.

The dem leaders are quite correct to assume that their party members are cultish morons who will literally go with anything handed to them.

Because they do. There are almost too many examples of this over the last 4 years to list.

Sham-peachment III will be no different as we have already seen.; 4/13/20, 2:00 PM
daskol said...: BAG, they weren't testing serum antibodies. Johnson tested negative as my parents did about three weeks after testing positive, because they had beat the virus.; 4/13/20, 2:00 PM
Freeman Hunt said...: "It doesn't surprise me at all that people her disagree with each other, and it seems kind of weird to point that out as weird."

It's not the disagreement. It's the way people have disagreed. I think it has been weird.; 4/13/20, 2:01 PM
Arashi said...: Inga, your very first commnet here today was a thrown bomb. You insinuated that those of us who disagree with you and few other 'correct' thinkers were essentially bad people, commenting in bad faith and being mean to yourself and others. Your lack of introspection is amazing. Why not tell us all again about your work in health care?; 4/13/20, 2:01 PM
Mark said...: I have a question for you all --

I've heard in the past people talking about some guy named "Joe Biden" or something like that.

Who is he? Does he really exist? Where is he? I've looked and not been able to find any evidence of him.; 4/13/20, 2:01 PM
Drago said...: walter: "Vegans rejoice! (just don't hi-5)
Smithfield shutting U.S. pork plant indefinitely, warns of meat shortages during pandemic"

Sorry walter.

That's not important since its a natural outcome of Tim in Vermont's perferred course of action.

The ONLY things that matter in terms of economic impact are hypothetical economic outcomes which might come from hypothetical economic choices not yet implemented.

We are not supposed to discuss current, actual economic impacts from current policies.; 4/13/20, 2:02 PM
tim in vermont said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; 4/13/20, 2:02 PM
Inga said...: “...there were, perhaps still are, plausible pandemic outcomes that could have caused catastrophic damage if we hadn't shut things down. It's not a trade off between our economic wellbeing and public health. The public health outcome could have been so bad as to have created a deeper and longer lasting economic catastrophe than what we've wrought.”

You are correct, we don’t know. Some of the problems are that people are demanding to know the future with laser sharp accuracy from the scientists in a time of pandemic with a virus never seen before.; 4/13/20, 2:03 PM
Original Mike said...: Hey MayBee - I got my telescope back a few days ago. It was shipped in two cases, the mirror, which sailed through in 2 days after it was shipped, and the rest of it in the second case which took 10 days and was held up by both NZ and US customs on the way.

I've become friends with the Pack & Send crew in Christchurch. Apparently, one of the last things they shipped out their door the afternoon they were forced to close by the NZ government's lockdown was my telescope. Guess they appreciated that bottle of Scotch.; 4/13/20, 2:03 PM
Kevin said...: A non-endorsement endorsement of Biden by Sanders:

"Today I'm asking all Americans ... to come together in this campaign to support your candidacy, which I endorse," Sanders said to Biden.

Sanders added: "We've got to make Trump a one-term president and we need you in the White House. So I will do all that I can to see that that happens."

The words "Joe" and "Biden" do not even appear.; 4/13/20, 2:03 PM
Drago said...: Arashi: "Inga, your very first commnet here today was a thrown bomb. You insinuated that those of us who disagree with you and few other 'correct' thinkers were essentially bad people, commenting in bad faith and being mean to yourself and others."

Inga called all Trump voters nazi's and has stated repeatedly over the years that Trump and his supporters were destroying the country.

That is, when she wasn't super busy pushing literally every single conspiracy hoax launched by the dems.; 4/13/20, 2:03 PM
MayBee said...: It's not the disagreement. It's the way people have disagreed. I think it has been weird.

Maybe...but I'm still not sure which side we are calling the dissenters, and which "side" we think has been so kind in their disagreement.; 4/13/20, 2:03 PM
walter said...: So..unpostmarked absentee ballots being counted in WI.; 4/13/20, 2:03 PM
Drago said...: Inga: "You are correct, we don’t know. Some of the problems are that people are demanding to know the future with laser sharp accuracy from the scientists in a time of pandemic with a virus never seen before."

LOL

This is the very basis for the democrats Sham-peachment III effort!; 4/13/20, 2:04 PM
Drago said...: walter: "So..unpostmarked absentee ballots being counted in WI."

Yep.

Our democrats have been very busy little beavers exploiting this crisis so as to not let it go to waste.; 4/13/20, 2:05 PM
Original Mike said...: Tim, your question about white noise was dumb.; 4/13/20, 2:05 PM
Bay Area Guy said...: @daskol,

BAG, they weren't testing serum antibodies. Johnson tested negative as my parents did about three weeks after testing positive, because they had beat the virus.

You have a cite for this? Not your parents, of course, but for BoJo.; 4/13/20, 2:06 PM
MayBee said...: Original Mike! I've been thinking about your telescope. How much I love hearing you've been in touch with the shippers. Life is full of little delights, isn't it?; 4/13/20, 2:06 PM
Inga said...: “It's not the disagreement. It's the way people have disagreed. I think it has been weird.”

Indeed, so weird that I commented on it’s weirdness to be seeing conservatives turning on each other with the ferocity usually saved for liberals.; 4/13/20, 2:06 PM
Bay Area Guy said...: "BTW, according to Nassim Taleb, it was a memo from him, Norman and Bar Yam that made it to senior Trump advisors that triggered the late January China travel ban."

If true, outstanding. The China travel ban was totally reasonable and necessary.; 4/13/20, 2:07 PM
Drago said...: Maybee: "Maybe...but I'm still not sure which side we are calling the dissenters, and which "side" we think has been so kind in their disagreement."

It was just weeks ago that Inga and Ken B went insane when they were asked to provide additional details about that report that stated 3% of NYC hospital coronavirus patients had died.....with no other contextual information.

I made the mistake of saying I would like to know more about that 3%, which is when Inga and Ken B went ballistic and claimed lives meant nothing to me. I believe Ken B even mentioned that I didn't care because NYC for some reason = jews.

Yep. He went that far.

Similar to Inga's repeated labeling of Trump and his supporters Nazi's.

Par for the course really.; 4/13/20, 2:08 PM
Ken B said...: Achilles at 1:15 is a really egregious example of mathematical ignorance and confusion.
Of course compound interest is an example of exponential growth and of course what Tim said is right.

https://www.expii.com/t/compound-interest-gives-exponential-growth-4467

Jeez Louise. But this is the guy who couldn’t get a death count from a population, an infection rate, and a deaths per infection rate so no big surprise.; 4/13/20, 2:08 PM
tim in vermont said...: "Tim, your question about white noise was dumb.”

You are making it harder and harder to take you seriously.; 4/13/20, 2:08 PM
daskol said...: BAG, that's the protocol for returning COVID-19 patients to society: a certain number of days in quarantine being symptom-free OR a negative test (swab test). That's what they're doing with medical professionals who get the disease, in order to expedite their return to work: a swab test after a few days being symptom free. I'm guessing that's how they treated the PM in UK, as someone who needed to return to work ASAP.; 4/13/20, 2:09 PM
Joe Biden, America's Putin said...: Drago@ 1:15 -
I'd be interested in that BBC article, Drago. If you've got it handy.; 4/13/20, 2:11 PM
Kevin said...: Shorter Sanders endorsement:

When you yahoos lose, you're not pinning it on me!

Sanders out!; 4/13/20, 2:11 PM
Narr said...: gilbar, JFarmer, I acted like an ass and I'm sorry. I appreciate your comments . . . eventually.

Narr
There are some very very very smart people here; 4/13/20, 2:12 PM
Drago said...: BleachBit-and-Hammers: "Drago@ 1:15 -
I'd be interested in that BBC article, Drago. If you've got it handy."

I'll see if I can grab it.

It explained perfectly what the ChiCom's were doing internationally in attempting to undermine western nations belief and trust in each other...and the very talking points called out by the Europeans were precisely the ones being pushed by ARM on this blog.

I would have thought having EU representatives would get ARM to slow down his Xi cuckhosterism....but no such luck.

I linked to it several nights ago.; 4/13/20, 2:15 PM
Bay Area Guy said...: The reason this issue gets heated is because unemployment causes suicides, and some of us, are trying to evaluate BOTH the risks we face: (1) the risk of the virus and (2) risk of economic damage from the national lockdown.

Discussions over Risk 1 can get contentious, but some folks are totally clueless about risk 2. Not naming names:); 4/13/20, 2:17 PM
Joe Biden, America's Putin said...: Drago -thanks...

In essence: Chi-Coms build/spread the disease, then blame others.

Who does that remind us of?; 4/13/20, 2:18 PM
Original Mike said...: "Do you think that the data from Chicago is some kind of white noise? What would you, as a scientist, calculate the odds that that exponential sequence of deaths would appear as random noise?"

Tim, it's obviously not white noise. I don't understand your point. I guess you think you've proven that I am a liar.

"You are making it harder and harder to take you seriously."

That's fine by me.; 4/13/20, 2:18 PM
Joe Biden, America's Putin said...: For COVID-19, the average reproduction number (R0) has been estimated at 2.5. This means that during the incubation period, each infected person can infect 2.5 more people.

I hear that R-O number is as low as 2 and as high as 4-5.; 4/13/20, 2:19 PM
daskol said...: This is not my opinion at all, and I don't like this utilitarian line of reasoning because I think it misses the point: but couldn't one say, taking Sebastien's QALY style analysis, that suicides increase only among the suicidal, who don't put much value on their lives, so really, in terms of QALYs, what are you losing with all these suicides?; 4/13/20, 2:20 PM
Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...: Lewis Wetzel said...
Point to figure on the Left who is pro-Trump.

It is getting harder and harder to point to figures on the right who are pro-Trump. When you've lost the WSJ editorial board ...

A feel a great awakening is upon us.; 4/13/20, 2:20 PM
bagoh20 said...: I mostly stopped watching the news since this began. The hyperbole and flat out lies disgusted me, and was scaring the hell out of my family for no good reason, and that's from all sources, not just the lefties, so I ask:

Has anyone been reporting the incredible and very important flattening and even regression of this epidemic over the last week. It's been incredible, and very good news for those frightened.; 4/13/20, 2:21 PM
Mark said...: Interesting that Maryland's governor was quick on the draw with restrictions. Virginia's Coonman was rather lax.

Looking at the numbers, Maryland is significantly ahead of Virginia in positives and deaths, and is pulling away more and more.

Of course, that could be testing/reporting shortfalls by Virginia.; 4/13/20, 2:21 PM
traditionalguy said...: When Pharaoh saw the Nile River turn blood red he was warned by Big Mo that more plagues were coming. But that was a long time ago. Has any guy with a staff been demanding that the Governor “Let my people go out of their homes.”; 4/13/20, 2:22 PM
Ken B said...: Original Mike
Re white noise. Why is it obviously not white noise? Because there is a pattern of growth, and it’s nearly unbroken. What kind of growth! It’s looks exponential. Considering that we have other reasons to expect exponential growth, I’d say that pattern becomes important.

Tim was highlighting how silly the denials of that pattern are, with a little hyperbole. His point is a good one: you need to make an effort to miss what is happening there.; 4/13/20, 2:23 PM
Original Mike said...: @MayBee - It was interesting. In the past the two cases would go on very different routes. For example, last time one went from the US to NZ by way of Hong Kong while the other by way of Singapore. This time, while they separated in time they both traveled the same route home; directly from NZ to the US. Shipping routes appear to have simplified under current conditions. Wonder if Hey Skipper would have any insights on this.; 4/13/20, 2:23 PM
Drago said...: BleachBit-and-Hammers: "Drago -thanks...

In essence: Chi-Coms build/spread the disease, then blame others.

Who does that remind us of?"

Indeed. In fact, the ChiCom's then sold (not gave away like ARM mindlessly parroted) purposely defective equipment (more ChiCom profit that way) to western nations (primarily Europe) and then all that equipment was found to be absolute ChiCom crap and kicked back.

Worse, during that same period of time (last several weeks), the ChiCom's in Australia literally went into the warehouse where previously sold non-defective ChiCom gear was stored and then sent it all back to China!!

It was during this time that ARM's praise of the ChiCom's was continuous, passionate, over the top and really quite revealing. There was not a single ChiCom talking point that was not advanced by ARM here.

Including the thoroughly debunked ChiCom intel generated lies that there was a US medical Intel report that was given to Trump in November which laid this all out. This was pushed hard by ARM even though the Colonel in charge of that Medical branch of the US intel crew put out TWO public statements debunking it.

But hey, the ChiCom's needed their propaganda out there and ARM is always at the ready to serve.

The good news? After all this not even the Europeans are buying what the ChiCom's and ARM are selling.'

There has indeed been a Great Awakening, and there will be a reckoning for China when this is all over...assuming Trump wins in Nov.

Otherwise ARM and his allies are simply going to hand every single thing the ChiComs want to them. No questions asked.; 4/13/20, 2:27 PM
CStanley said...: Blogger daskol said...
This is not my opinion at all, and I don't like this utilitarian line of reasoning because I think it misses the point: but couldn't one say, taking Sebastien's QALY style analysis, that suicides increase only among the suicidal, who don't put much value on their lives, so really, in terms of QALYs, what are you losing with all these suicides?

I agree with you, daskol, and I think someone got hammered a few days ago here for making a similar observation about economic loss....something like, “Why worry about small businesses shutting down, it will affect businesses that are undercapitalized and they would have gone out of business before long anyway.”

I, too, find that utilitarian thinking distasteful and wrong, but the analogies are helpful for pointing out the flawed reasoning IMO.; 4/13/20, 2:29 PM
Sebastian said...: Nonapod: "posters who accuse other posters of wanting to destroy the country"

I appreciate there sentiment, but, to be polite about it, I do not recall anyone on the pro-sanity side saying that the alarmists wanted any such thing. Nor do I in fact think that, about the commenters here (about actual bad-faith politicians, I am less sure).

We did point out that the course of action they proposed had the reasonably foreseeable effect of causing such destruction. To this we got several kinds of responses--most people hurt were in "marginal businesses," you must want old people to get on with it and die already (earlier today), targeted measures were too "ideal," whatever we did would have tanked the economy anyway, things were very "uncertain" so why not, and so on.

Of course, on our side we gauged the uncertainties differently. We called BS on the 11M without "mitigation," we noted the questionable assumptions about likely hospitalization and death rates, we did not think that the virus presented as big a threat to most healthy people as initially projected, and so on -- and as real numbers came in, they mostly cut our way.

That's where we stand now.

The alarmism of the last several weeks now complicates the reopening. Since we had to go all out "if we only save one life," and could not rationally discuss trade-offs, it will now be more difficult to justify measures that can be seen as posing any major risk to anyone. What, do we want any vulnerable person to just get on with it and die already?

Most commenters here, I sense, are coming around to the position that the rationale for flattening the curve was grossly overstated, and that measures that were somehow impossible these last two months, like targeted isolation of actual risk groups, have to be part of the economic rescue to come.; 4/13/20, 2:32 PM
Freeman Hunt said...: I am amused that many of our American reporters are more trusting of the Chinese government than the people who actually live in China.; 4/13/20, 2:33 PM
Ingachuck'stoothlessARM said...: Can't wait til this all blows over, though we've all done
our part to help "Flatten the Economy".

I miss 'Climate Change'. And LGBTQ.

Will we ever get back to normal?; 4/13/20, 2:34 PM
Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...: Drago said...
Chi-Coms

I actually work for one of his employer's competitors. If I can keep his blood pressure above 140/90 mm Hg for more than 1 hour I get a bonus.

Did I mention that I think a great Trump awakening is upon us?; 4/13/20, 2:35 PM
bagoh20 said...: I've come to the realization that I have virtually no fear of this virus at all. That's based on the data that's out there for everyone to see, and the relative risk it shows for those under 65 or otherwise healthy.

I do most of the mitigation theater anyway, becuase although I'm not scared of the virus personally or getting sick from it, I am terrified of the fear in others, and how that makes them think and act. I'm scared that I will be blamed if someone near me gets it, even if they do not get sick. I'll be blamed because I'm not a believer, not sufficiently scared of it, and kind of a heretic. It feels like being the girl you know everyone is going to call the witch if something bad happens, even if I do all the recommended things, and in some cases take more precautions than they do. It's pretty scary, becuase I'll be blamed for terrible things like not caring about people who are close to me, even though airing my skepticism and the facts that inform it is an attempt to ease their fear, and make them happy, which clearly is not working. I can't wait till this is over. I think the stress of being in this sucky situation is what gave me the shingles.; 4/13/20, 2:36 PM
walter said...: New emphasis/requirement on masks?

Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
·
21h
Governors, get your states testing programs & apparatus perfected. Be ready, big things are happening. No excuses! The Federal Government is there to help. We are testing more than any country in the World. Also, gear up with Face Masks!; 4/13/20, 2:37 PM
Bay Area Guy said...: Not to add to fuel to @Drago's fire, but....

Here's an article from the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists on March 30, 2020.

They say, No, bioweapon.

But, they do say, possible lab fuck-up.

Money Quote:

Yanzhong Huang, a senior fellow for Global Health at the Council on Foreign Relations, recently wrote an article for Foreign Affairs that is dismissive of conspiracy theories about the origins of the pandemic but also mentions circumstantial evidence that supports the possibility that a lab release was involved. That evidence includes a study “conducted by the South China University of Technology, [that] concluded that the coronavirus ‘probably’ originated in the Wuhan Center for Disease Control and Prevention,” located just 280 meters from the Hunan Seafood Market often cited as the source of the original outbreak.

Did y'all know that the nefarious little bat-soup wet market in Wuhan was 280 meters (in English, that's about 900 feet) from the Wuhan Center for Disease Control and Prevention.

That seems quite coincidental and a little too close for comfort.

Carry on.; 4/13/20, 2:38 PM
Inga said...: ‘...we did not think that the virus presented as big a threat to most healthy people as initially projected, and so on -- and as real numbers came in, they mostly cut our way.’

The numbers that are coming in now are BECAUSE of mitigation. With the way this virus spreads and it’s deadliness, it’s not unrealistic to assume the numbers would be VERY much higher without mitigation.

Why isn’t this obvious?; 4/13/20, 2:38 PM
walter said...: Biden needs a great awakening.; 4/13/20, 2:39 PM