Althouse: At the Monday Lunch Café...

April 13, 2020

At the Monday Lunch Café...

63921D70-64FA-41D4-816C-9B26E6085156_1_201_a

... flow wherever you like.

522 comments:

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daskol said...: Interesting bagoh20: there's definitely significant social pressure in NYC to wear a mask. I put one on before I go into stores, along with latex gloves, even though I'm 95% sure I already had this virus 6 weeks ago. But now walking around town, my wife feels compelled to wear a mask and put them on my children, because of how uncomfortable people seem when they see a group of people walking around without a mask. Masks are the newest way to signal virtue.; 4/13/20, 2:39 PM
Mark said...: Biden needs a great awakening.

See?? That's what I mean.

Who is this "Biden"? Has anyone ever actually seen him?

I don't think he is real.; 4/13/20, 2:41 PM
bagoh20 said...: A fact like the risk of getting killed driving to and from work is TWICE the risk of dying from COVID-19 should be pretty helpful to those scared, but it has no effect. I don't quite understand that other than just pure hysteria. You normally take that much higher risk every day without a thought, but you are hiding in your house from something half as dangerous?; 4/13/20, 2:42 PM
walter said...: 3/29
DR. BIRX: Thank you. I mean, we have grave concerns when you look at the model. As I told you, look at the Chris Murray model, where he shows rapid escalation. And you can see it happening with the people we’re losing every day throughout the — throughout America. And you can see it going up, just like cases. And we’re starting to lose people at the same rate. And we have deep concerns about that.
<
So in the model — and there’s a — there’s a large confidence interval, and so it’s anywhere in the model between 80,000 and 160,000, maybe even potentially 200,000 people succumbing to this. That’s with mitigation. In that model, they make full assumption that we continue doing exactly what we’re doing, but even better, in every metro area with a level of intensity.
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-vice-president-pence-members-coronavirus-task-force-press-briefing-14/; 4/13/20, 2:42 PM
Mark said...: What I have seen as far as masking in public goes is that a lot of people's chins are very well protected. Nose and mouth, not so much.; 4/13/20, 2:43 PM
rcocean said...: Here are the CV deaths so far:

NY/NJ/Conn - 12,200

Calf - 676
Ill - 727
Florida - 460
Texas - 289
Penn - 525
Mass - 727
Wash - 511

This has been a mostly NYC-Metro disease and we've shut down the whole country for it. Calf and Texas have less than 20 deaths per MILLION!; 4/13/20, 2:44 PM
bagoh20 said...: Daskol,
I'd feel and act differently if I was in New York City. The risk there is many times what it is for most of the country, but in Nevada, and most other places, it makes no sense.; 4/13/20, 2:44 PM
Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...: bagoh20 said...
A fact like the risk of getting killed driving to and from work is TWICE the risk of dying from COVID-19

Not sure you are really helping here. Wouldn't this just be another reason to stay home?; 4/13/20, 2:45 PM
MayBee said...: The numbers that are coming in now are BECAUSE of mitigation. With the way this virus spreads and it’s deadliness, it’s not unrealistic to assume the numbers would be VERY much higher without mitigation.

Why isn’t this obvious?

I told the sun to rise this morning, and it did. It would have come up much later had I not told it to rise.; 4/13/20, 2:47 PM
MayBee said...: I'm with Bagoh20 here.; 4/13/20, 2:48 PM
daskol said...: I don't think it makes sense to wear a mask just walking down nearly empty streets, assuming you're not ill. People are very good now at giving distance to other pedestrians. However, it's probably good training for the protocols under which NYC will reopen for business. As crowded as this place is, and as reliant on public transport, good mask coverage and continued focus on hand washing and avoiding face touching are probably the only things that will prevent another outbreak. But I noticed the virtue signaling aspect because of the way a few people who were talking about it are saying it's a part of the social contract now. I guess they're right about that, and it's important to use virtue signaling, or its book-end shame, to encourage compliance.; 4/13/20, 2:48 PM
Inga said...: In one way I’d like to see what would happen if things were opened up in the way people here would like to see. It would be interesting to see if there would be a second wave...or not. I think the folks who want to go back to pre-Covid social distancing right NOW should be the canaries and the rest of us will watch to see what happens. Unfortunately a lot of innocent people may die.; 4/13/20, 2:49 PM
MayBee said...: Who wants to go to pre-Covid social distancing right now?

As for me, I would happily go about all the things I was doing 4 weeks ago. I would probably not visit my parents or the new baby in my family for a little bit longer.; 4/13/20, 2:51 PM
walter said...: Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...
bagoh20 said...
A fact like the risk of getting killed driving to and from work is TWICE the risk of dying from COVID-19"

Not sure you are really helping here. Wouldn't this just be another reason to stay home?
--
Really going all out today there ARM. This one worthy of a repeat.; 4/13/20, 2:52 PM
Mark said...: I was going to make today the baked ham that I didn't make yesterday. But I went and got a Popeye's chicken sandwich, and now I'm full.; 4/13/20, 2:52 PM
daskol said...: Just as we have no idea of the fatality rate of this bug, we have no idea of the effectiveness of the mitigation measures we've taken. Anyone speaking with certainty or even undue confidence about any of those things is blowing hot air. We did what we did to try to prevent a terrible outcome, and it appears that some of the scariest outcomes are now very unlikely. But we don't know how likely they were to begin with, only that they were possible and potentially preventable. And we have common sense so we know things like masks and good hygiene help prevent the spread of germs including viruses, despite the bullshit our high officials of public health, global and national, were saying early on.; 4/13/20, 2:54 PM
Sebastian said...: "Blogger daskol said...
This is not my opinion at all, and I don't like this utilitarian line of reasoning"

It doesn't matter whether anyone likes it or not. We are making decisions that involve tradeoffs. The fact that some people don't want to state their preferences clearly, or assess all the consequences of their choices, doesn't change that.

"but couldn't one say, taking Sebastien's QALY style analysis, that suicides increase only among the suicidal, who don't put much value on their lives, so really, in terms of QALYs, what are you losing with all these suicides?"

One could, and it would be a step forward at least to consider the health costs of the economic decisions made, even if to discount the value of the lives of suicidal people. But it's not "my style," it simply is one way of describing medical decision-making under constraints. You can do it deliberately, or leave it implicit, but your are doing something like it in any case. The point of hammering the point was that, in terms of ordinary decision-making, as best I could tell, the approach taken across much of the country in effect valued a QALY at a much, much higher level than the system normally does. I did and do not think that was reasonable.

"I, too, find that utilitarian thinking distasteful and wrong"

Clearly, you are not alone. But however distasteful the exercise, something like it is done anyway, whether carefully and explicitly, as I prefer, or obliquely and implicitly, to cater to the feelings of a portion of the public. Of course, this says nothing about what our actual presences are and should be -- that's a separate argument, also relevant. One could argue, for example, in light of the body acceptance moment, that we have been too cavalier about not spending millions to assist obese people in the last years of life, and that they now deserve care and protection equivalent to tens of millions of dollars per person.; 4/13/20, 2:55 PM
Mark said...: At 195,000, NY has had more positives than any other country in the world. Their cases per million, 9941, is more than three times that as Italy or France, and more than twice that of Spain.; 4/13/20, 2:57 PM
Nonapod said...: @BAG Yeah, I tend to think it's very possible that it was some kind of lab screwup, specifically some kind of containment screwup. It's possible that there may even have been an arguably somewhat innocent reason that the Chinese were studying the SARs family of coronaviruses that are found in bats. That is, they weren't necessarily trying to make some kind of bioweapon or anything quite so nefarious. Rather they were merely trying to better understand how novel strains of viruses come into existance (their so called "virogenesis") in hopes of avoiding future outbreaks of these killers. They already had the SARs outbreak obviously. Now, if that is indeed the case that doesn't mean that they weren't epically stupid.

Of course, it's still possible they were trying to create a bioweapon (which would be even stupider).; 4/13/20, 2:58 PM
Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...: Mark said...
I was going to make today the baked ham that I didn't make yesterday. But I went and got a Popeye's chicken sandwich, and now I'm full.

Thanks for the update. I was wondering what happened to that ham.; 4/13/20, 2:58 PM
mandrewa said...: I Callahan said,

"That's the lowest exponent you can use (2). Using any higher number would send those numbers through the roof.

An exponential doesn't have to be a whole number. It can be any number. For instance suppose the key number is 1.1 instead of 2.0, then here is the resulting sequence:

1.1
1.21
1.331
1.464
1.6105
.
.
.

It grows kind of slowly but that is an exponential sequence.

Or suppose the base number was 0.9:

0.9
0.81
0.729
0.6561
0.5905
.
.
.

That is also an exponential sequence. It just happens to be decreasing.

And in fact there are a huge number of functions that are not exponential that could more accurately describe the real epidemic, assuming we had God-like knowledge, which we don't. The real reason mathematicians use exponentials in this context is that they are simple functions and easier to manipulate than many others.; 4/13/20, 2:58 PM
Drago said...: walter: "Really going all out today there ARM. This one worthy of a repeat."

I'm just waiting for ARM to revisit his earlier defense of the ChiCom's and their treatment of the Uyghur's.

Tiananmen ARM was in high dundgeon over how anyone could possibly know the ChiCom's were mistreating hundreds of thousands (millions) of Uyghurs.

This was right at about the same time ARM was pushing the ChiCom propaganda narrative that US intel sources had given Trump info about the virus in November of last year.

BTW, it looks like the Sham-peachment III hearings Adam Schiff has called, while the administration is still engaged in dealing with this pandemic, will include just that very ChiCom/US deep state hoax narrative.

As conspiracy loonie Inga would say: how boring and predictable.; 4/13/20, 2:58 PM
bagoh20 said...: "... it’s not unrealistic to assume the numbers would be VERY much higher without mitigation.

Why isn’t this obvious?"

Because it's not the real question. It's a straw man you've been burning down all along. We have data showing otherwise in places where mitigation took a very different form. And in some places you are mitigating something that never was a substantial risk to begin with.

Think of it this way: It's tornado season. Should the whole country get in storm shelters? If people in Baltimore don't think that makes sense for them, it doesn't mean they don't think there is a risk that needs addressed, nor that they don't care about people in Kansas.; 4/13/20, 2:59 PM
Mark said...: Ham is still there. I pre-nuked the potatoes, but they will last a day or two for me to skin and re-heat and mash.; 4/13/20, 3:00 PM
Sebastian said...: "Blogger daskol said...
This is not my opinion at all, and I don't like this utilitarian line of reasoning"

It doesn't matter whether anyone likes it or not. We are making decisions that involve tradeoffs. The fact that some people don't want to state their preferences clearly, or assess all the consequences of their choices, doesn't change that.

"but couldn't one say, taking Sebastien's QALY style analysis, that suicides increase only among the suicidal, who don't put much value on their lives, so really, in terms of QALYs, what are you losing with all these suicides?"

One could, and it would be a step forward at least to consider the health costs of the economic decisions made, even if to discount the value of the lives of suicidal people. But it's not "my style," it simply is one way of describing medical decision-making under constraints. You can do it deliberately, or leave it implicit, but your are doing something like it in any case. The point of hammering the point was that, in terms of ordinary decision-making, as best I could tell, the approach taken across much of the country in effect valued a QALY at a much, much higher level than the system normally does. I did and do not think that was reasonable.

"I, too, find that utilitarian thinking distasteful and wrong"

Clearly, you are not alone. But however distasteful the exercise, something like it is done anyway, whether carefully and explicitly, as I prefer, or obliquely and implicitly, to cater to the feelings of a portion of the public. Of course, this says nothing about what our actual preferences are and should be -- that's a separate argument, also relevant. One could argue, for example, in light of the body acceptance moment, that we have been too cavalier about not spending millions to assist obese people in the last years of life, and that they now deserve care and protection equivalent to tens of millions of dollars per person.; 4/13/20, 3:00 PM
Drago said...: Mark: "At 195,000, NY has had more positives than any other country in the world. Their cases per million, 9941, is more than three times that as Italy or France, and more than twice that of Spain"

Maybe Inga and ARM's beloved dems shouldn't have been calling for everyone to get on out there and party in NYC's Chinatown Chinese New Year celebration and other events in late February and early March.

You know. Just maybe.; 4/13/20, 3:00 PM
daskol said...: The trade off between economic and public health is a false trade off. You can't have the former without a strong measure of the latter. And we still don't know near enough about the virus to evaluate the risk of letting it run wild. That's all you need to take action, and also to devise an approach to measuring such action's effects, and to direct future action. The QALY stuff can come later, as it is not a framework for managing risk under conditions of extreme uncertainty. It presumes that much is known, much more than is known, under the best of circumstances, which is hindsight. It is not a useful tool for evaluating trade offs for future actions under conditions of uncertainty and risk asymmetry. It also appears ghoulish when used incorrectly, but that does not mean that trade offs aren't to be evaluated and that reason has no place in the conversation.; 4/13/20, 3:01 PM
bagoh20 said...: "Not sure you are really helping here. Wouldn't this just be another reason to stay home?"

That's the whole the point. Neither is a good reason. Even combined they aren't a good reason.; 4/13/20, 3:01 PM
Ken B said...: Is there a worse regular at Insty than Charles Martin? I don’t take Hoyt seriously enough to consider her real competition.; 4/13/20, 3:01 PM
daskol said...: Charlie Martin is a nerd. He's occasionally interesting in a nerd way.; 4/13/20, 3:03 PM
Anne-I-Am said...: @Sebastian,

My sister and I were just discussing the dilemma our leaders now find themselves in. ICUs nowhere near to full; health workers not falling like flies (despite sub-par PPE); whole swathes of the country with no real wave of illness...

But what can they do now? If they open back up as quickly as seems to be warranted, we will rightly suspect that they overreacted and will be angry (if we aren’t already) at the destruction their ill-considered decisions caused. We will see that they really make these decisions without understanding the data, without knowing the parameters of the problem, and without a clear plan for mitigation. So we will suffer on, with some of the little despots ratcheting the cuffs ever tighter.

My sister just said that her husband (pulmonologist/critical care MD) has noted that despite less-than-desirable PPE (no face shields, one N95 mask per day, etc.), the staff at his hospitals are not falling ill at the rate the Panic! Would have predicted. This leads him to question the assertions about the virulence of the Lung Pox.

I don’t think having these questions indicates that we skeptics are murderous assholes. I think it means that we understand risk, human mortality, and the natural progression of worldwide illnesses that cause much death and suffering but do not rise to the level of a plague needing the immediate cessation of all meaningful activity.; 4/13/20, 3:03 PM
Bay Area Guy said...: Some of the folks who I like very much still get lost on tangents.

1. Shutting down the economy causes many different hardships. Full stop.

2. The hardships include lost jobs and unemployment. Full stop.

3. The hardships include big haircuts in 401K and investment portfolio. Full stop.

4. The hardships may include increased suicides, but, Yes, no need to argue --see 1 if confusion persists.

5. Finally, there is a political angle. If you are a Trump supporter, but cannot see that the Dems are hoping to wreck the economy, then blame Trump for the bad economy, in hopes of electing Figurehead Biden, well, then, you are a tad naive to continue meaningful dialogues.

Happy Monday!; 4/13/20, 3:04 PM
Ken B said...: Inga said “ t. I think the folks who want to go back to pre-Covid social distancing right NOW should be the canaries and the rest of us will watch to see what happens. ”

Brave Pants says she's raring to go. Surely she must be in a trial by now. I linked to trials you can enter via email.

The sad truth Inga is that if they get their way and if/when outbreaks happen most of them will deny the connection.; 4/13/20, 3:05 PM
Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...: Drago said...
defense ... ChiCom's ... Uyghur's ... Tiananmen ... ChiCom's ... Uyghurs ... ChiCom propaganda ... Sham-peachment ... Schiff ... ChiCom ... deep state ... hoax ... conspiracy ... loonie ... boring and predictable

Only half an hour until that bonus kicks in.

I forget, did I mention that I think a great Trump awakening is upon us?; 4/13/20, 3:05 PM
Nonapod said...: An exponential doesn't have to be a whole number. It can be any number.

This is of course true. But generally, when laypeople/journalists use the term "exponential" they are refering to integers (meaning numbers without a fractional component) and usually they're thinking of the number 2. Maybe laypeople/journalist shouldn't use a term like "exponential" so cavalierly without fully groking what it means since it seems to lead to a lot of confusion and disagreement. But here we are.; 4/13/20, 3:07 PM
Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...: Mark said...
Ham is still there.

Good to hear.; 4/13/20, 3:07 PM
Francisco D said...: MayBee said...I told the sun to rise this morning, and it did. It would have come up much later had I not told it to rise.

Excellent analogy!; 4/13/20, 3:09 PM
bagoh20 said...: "Inga said “ t. I think the folks who want to go back to pre-Covid social distancing right NOW should be the canaries and the rest of us will watch to see what happens. ”

I down with that. And all the rest can give back their income (wherever it came from) starting in mid-march until you feel safe, which I bet will suddenly much get easier to feel. Deal?; 4/13/20, 3:09 PM
Kevin said...: When you've lost the WSJ editorial board ...

It's funny that ARM thinks the WSJ ever supported Trump.; 4/13/20, 3:09 PM
Anne-I-Am said...: @Nonapod, @Bay Area Guy,

Read a bit that says Fauci’s institute sent a couple million to the Wuhan people to study SARS in bats...somewhere in the mid-late 00s.

The usual suspects are all tangled up in each other, aren’t they?

I shall go in search of the citation....Luddite though I am...narciso! I need you!; 4/13/20, 3:10 PM
Joan said...: “ That's the lowest exponent you can use (2).”

This is rank mathematical ignorance. You teachers owe you a refund.

This ...situation is emphasizing exactly how innumerate the vast majority of people are. “Math is hard!” And apps will now math for you with great efficiency, so now very few people understand topics slightly more complex than multiplication, like exponents don’t have to be integers or that not every exponential function looks the same when graphed. Most people don’t understand that you can plot the exact same data with different units on the axes and use it to tell a completely different story.

Innumeracy is intentional, though. Dumbing down our academic standards is the kind thing to do because math is hard and really, who needs it? Plus this way the population is more easily convinced to panic when they’re presented with policy decisions based on models. Trust the models! Math is hard, but the experts are smart, smarter than you!

We’ve been digging ourselves into this whole for 60 years now. Maybe one upside of this disruption will be an overhaul of the education system, but I’m not holding my breath.; 4/13/20, 3:11 PM
Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...: They have definitely supported Trump pretty consistently for the last three years. That they are starting to back away now is interesting.; 4/13/20, 3:11 PM
walter said...: Scarf reveal at 5:00 Eastern.; 4/13/20, 3:12 PM
traditionalguy said...: Went to Publix today. Masks were on most shoppers. But I had forgotten mine. Funny thing was the looks from the ladies with masks on. Their eyes communicated with me while I smiled back at them. People are lonely.; 4/13/20, 3:12 PM
traditionalguy said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; 4/13/20, 3:12 PM
Mark said...: Regardless of what should or should not happen, the country ain't re-opening before the end of April/early May.; 4/13/20, 3:13 PM
Drago said...: ARM: "They have definitely supported Trump pretty consistently for the last three years."

LOLOLOLOL

Yeah, the COC/establishment republican/Koch brothers WSJ has "pretty consistently" supported Trump...........(insert infinite LOL's here); 4/13/20, 3:14 PM
Mark said...: It's a Smithfield ham, though.

(cue ominous music); 4/13/20, 3:15 PM
bagoh20 said...: "The sad truth Inga is that if they get their way and if/when outbreaks happen most of them will deny the connection."

There may or may not be another outbreak. Expanding immunity makes that less likely every day, but there will definitely be an extreme cost to our society from this sloppy unfocused response, which is not a possibility, but a certainty. When the data eventually shows a epidemic less severe than a bad flu, some will deny the connection between their overreaction and that cost. This is also a certainty.; 4/13/20, 3:15 PM
daskol said...: This seems right to me. The economic hardship we are experiencing is largely because we waited to act on the key variable--transportation. If we had acted quickly to close all international travel around when Trump stopped China travel, and had used common sense regarding masks, we may not have needed the far more costly shutdown measures we've taken since. It was waiting to act when it was cheap and effective that caused us to act in more expensive ways to get even less of an effect than might have been had by a strong act of sovereignty early on--lack of exercising our sovereignty lead to empowerment of authoritarians and economic destruction. I hope we heed that lesson as we consider how to reopen the economy, and think about who (WHO) and what prevented us from taking early decisive actions (e.g. political and public health officials, the media). This seems right to me.; 4/13/20, 3:15 PM
Kevin said...: Summary of newspaper and magazine endorsements in the 2016 United States presidential election

Candidate Daily Weekly Magazines College International Total
Hillary Clinton 243 148 15 77 17 500
No endorsement 64 13 0 5 0 82
Not Donald Trump 8 2 4 12 4 30
Donald Trump 20 6 0 0 2 28
Gary Johnson 9 0 0 0 0 9
Split endorsement 2 0 0 0 0 2
Evan McMullin 1 0 0 0 0 1
Not Hillary Clinton 1 0 0 0 0 1; 4/13/20, 3:16 PM
Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...: Mark said...
It's a Smithfield ham, though.

Might not have been so concerned if I had known this.; 4/13/20, 3:17 PM
Jessica said...: https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/04/11/why-a-study-showing-that-covid-19-is-everywhere-is-good-news

"The paper reckons that 7m Americans were infected from March 8th to 14th, and official data show 7,000 deaths three weeks later. The resulting fatality rate is 0.1%, similar to that of flu. That is amazingly low, just a tenth of some other estimates. Perhaps it is just wrong, possibly because the death toll has been under-reported. Perhaps, though, New York’s hospitals are overflowing because the virus is so contagious that it has crammed the equivalent of a year’s worth of flu cases into one week."; 4/13/20, 3:17 PM
Anne-I-Am said...: Mark!

Put down the Ham! Back away slowly and with your hands in the air!!! Do not go near the Ham of Doom!!!; 4/13/20, 3:18 PM
Lewis Wetzel said...: Blogger Kevin said...

When you've lost the WSJ editorial board ...

It's funny that ARM thinks the WSJ ever supported Trump.

4/13/20, 3:09 PM

The reasoning process Lefties use to inform themselves of the world around them is astonishing. It's like one of those cults where your information is filtered by the cult leaders. If you are a liberal, When you want to find out what the editorial board of the WSJ thinks, you don't go to the WSJ and read its editorials, or read conservative opinion on the WSJ editorial board, instead you go to HuffPo and read what some 22 year old journalism major thinks about the WSJ editorial board.
Witness the thousands of articles and comments on Limbaugh & Hannity, written by Lefties who have never watched Hannity or Limbaugh, but learn about them from stories pushed by MMfA.; 4/13/20, 3:19 PM
Mark said...: If we had acted quickly to close all international travel around when Trump stopped China travel, and had used common sense . . .

Sorry, but what is "common" and what is "sense" has changed drastically in the last 6-8 weeks.

Back then, "common sense" was to basically do what we did.

You cannot ever say that the unprecedented is common.; 4/13/20, 3:19 PM
Drago said...: In some of the latest ARM-approved ChiCom threats against western nations, the ChiCom's have issued an open letter threatening the UK government over rumblings out of Downing Street that the UK govt finally, after all this time, is reconsidering its use of ARM's beloved Huawei gear for the UK 5G network.

The ChiCom's open letter pulled a "nice telecom infrastructure you've got there, it would be a shame if anything happened to it" maneuver with a statement that threatens current UK infrastructure via needed China supplied spare parts.

Well well well.

Isn't that interesting. And that is just 1 week after China directly and openly threatened current medical equipment contract fulfillment with France by saying if France did not immediately sign a long term agreement with Huawei for the French 5G network that the medical gear contracts would be in jeopardy.

And these are the cats ARM is shilling for 24/7.

Unexpectedly.; 4/13/20, 3:20 PM
Bay Area Guy said...: The circle is complete!

"I think the folks who want to go back to pre-Covid social distancing right NOW should be the canaries and the rest of us will watch to see what happens."

Yes, I think healthy people should return to work (with reasonable precautions) and those who can work from home, are elderly, are sick, have symptoms or are scaredy-cats, should stay home.

In fact, I think every state except for NY, NJ, Mich, and Louisiana, should adopt this immediately -- based on the numbers.; 4/13/20, 3:21 PM
Anne-I-Am said...: Bay Area Guy,

Will miracles never cease? I think we have reached a consensus.; 4/13/20, 3:23 PM
daskol said...: Mark, it's common sense that masks and other barriers prevent transmission of infectious agents. It's common sense that free travel abroad and domestically will accelerate the spread of a contagious disease. Nothing that's happened in the last couple of months has affected such common sense, despite our global public health officials telling us to ignore them for a while--no need for masks, stopping air travel to China is racist--with the mainstream media blaring it all, until finally relenting to common sense, with the media now blaring the "new" common sense like it wasn't just saying the opposite a few weeks ago.; 4/13/20, 3:24 PM
walter said...: Save the ham for barter currency.; 4/13/20, 3:25 PM
Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...: Drago said...
ChiCom threats ... ChiCom's ... threatening ... Huawei ... ChiCom's ... Huawei ... 24/7 ... Unexpectedly.

I can sense that blood pressure dropping. Let's see what's on the front page of that leftist rag the Daily Mail

CDC director says he recommended some states lock down in February as reports indicate White House knew of coronavirus threat before they let on; 4/13/20, 3:27 PM
Mark said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; 4/13/20, 3:28 PM
Inga said...: “The sad truth Inga is that if they get their way and if/when outbreaks happen most of them will deny the connection.”

Oh yes, I know. I’ve seen it happen time after time.; 4/13/20, 3:28 PM
Original Mike said...: I have a WSJ subscription. The WSJ has never been shy of criticizing Trump.; 4/13/20, 3:29 PM
Mark said...: Anne-I-am does not like Springfield ham.

She will not eat it here or there. She will not eat it anywhere.
She would not like it in a house, she would not like it with a mouse. Not in a box, not with a fox.

Anne-I-am does not like Springfield ham.

Would she, could she, eat it in a car or in a tree? No, no, just let her be!; 4/13/20, 3:29 PM
Bay Area Guy said...: @Anne,

Will miracles never cease? I think we have reached a consensus.

It's an Easter miracle, Anne!

However, Dem Governors and Dem Congressional critters are gonna fight a reopening tooth and nail. Because they like shutting things down.

Hopefully, Texas stands tall.; 4/13/20, 3:31 PM
Ken B said...: The worry https://twitter.com/Farzad_MD/status/1249337825843167232; 4/13/20, 3:37 PM
Drago said...: Inga: "Oh yes, I know. I’ve seen it happen time after time."

LOL

Inga must have read that in a dossier somewhere. I've seen that happen time after time.; 4/13/20, 3:37 PM
Drago said...: OM: "I have a WSJ subscription. The WSJ has never been shy of criticizing Trump."

ARM and Inga have been operating under their own reality for quite some time.; 4/13/20, 3:38 PM
Tomcc said...: It seems to me that we now have 3 to 4 weeks of data. Not enough to make an accurate assessment of the overall infection rate or death rate, but enough to suggest that the worst case scenario has not been realized (the exception being- so far- New York).
We have had a real-life experiment going on at the same time: grocery stores have been open. Lot's of people going to and fro, lots of employees stocking shelves and running registers.
Personally, I'd love to know whether those of us who are asymptomatic could or would infect others at this late stage, after being semi-isolated for almost a month.
Even with that risk, I'm more than willing to go back to work (in retail) with appropriate PPE until we know more.; 4/13/20, 3:39 PM
Drago said...: Tiananmen ARM: "CDC director says he recommended some states lock down in February as reports indicate White House knew of coronavirus threat before they let on"

LOL

Gee, all those public statements by the WHO and Fauci are about to become really, really inconvenient in the the dems next hoax Sham-peachment effort.

And I mean, really inconvenient.; 4/13/20, 3:40 PM
Drago said...: ARM seems very interested in miminizing the ChiCom threats against western european nations.

I wonder why that would be?; 4/13/20, 3:41 PM
Temujin said...: Mark said: "At 195,000, NY has had more positives than any other country in the world. Their cases per million, 9941, is more than three times that as Italy or France, and more than twice that of Spain.

Noted. I also note that as I speak with friends around the country, they always manage to get a comment in 'about that stupid Governor of yours'- meaning mine. Meaning the Gov of Florida, Ron DeSantis. I've posted here previously that I like DeSantis, love what he was getting done- with both parties- prior to the virus hitting. And my only question since then is why he did not demand the beaches in the state be closed for spring break. He did not get that done. But aside from that, the most populous and traveled area of the state is the Miami/Ft. Lauderdale/Palm Beach corridor. Those areas had shelter at home edicts prior to the state edict. He knew that was done. And other parts of the state are not in a bad way. Some not at all.

But I've noticed that nationally- the Democrat press has been working overtime to slam Ron DeSantis at every turn, without knowing a thing about what he has done- other than he is a Republican. At the same time these folks are treating Andrew Cuomo and Gavin Newsom like some junior Gods because....because...well- I'm seriously not sure. Outside of Wuhan itself, New York has been handled worse than any major area. They reacted too slowly, were unprepared for any of it, and watched as Trump corraled the entire Federal effort away from the rest of the country to supply New York first and only. Yes- they needed it. But there's a reason they needed so much of it. Cuomo- before you all boost him for Veep or even Pres, has a long and not good history in New York. He made corrupt fashionable in Albany.

California has done a nice job with it. But Gavin already has a history in destroying San Francisco as Mayor and was well on his way to doing the same thing for his entire state before this thing came along and made everyone focus on a virus instead of a slug.

The two states losing the most population over the last few years are California and New York. You want a guide as to how a state is doing and how a Governor governs? There's your indicator.

Meanwhile- down in Florida- we have fewer cases than California and about 1/10 the cases of New York. And Florida is among the fastest growing states in the Union. So, while the national press plays games with the reputation of Gov. DeSantis, and keeps propping up Cuomo and Newsom, they have it exactly backwards. Not surprisingly.; 4/13/20, 3:43 PM
Original Mike said...: "[The WSJ has] has definitely supported Trump pretty consistently for the last three years. That they are starting to back away now is interesting."

You read a comment on some subject you know well…; 4/13/20, 3:45 PM
narciso said...: I can do this all day; 4/13/20, 3:47 PM
Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...: Drago said...
Inga ... LOL ... Inga ... dossier ... WSJ ... Trump ... ARM ... Inga ... Tiananmen ... ARM ... CDC ... LOL ... WHO ... Fauci ... dems ... hoax ... Sham-peachment ... ARM ... ChiCom threats ... I wonder ... ?

I can taste that bonus now.

The country is in good hands, small but good. Who couldn't feel reassured knowing that Jared and Ivanka are in charge?

I will decide when to re-open the country - and Javanka will help me: Trump says HE is in charge of ending shutdown as he unveils ANOTHER 'taskforce' with Ivanka and Jared and says governors will have to follow his lead; 4/13/20, 3:48 PM
Drago said...: Temujin: "But I've noticed that nationally- the Democrat press has been working overtime to slam Ron DeSantis at every turn,..."

Remember, from a few weeks back it became clear that one of the dems primary Sham-peachment III narratives was going to be that Trump was denying democrat governors needed equipment and only supplying it to republican governors who were his buddies.

Lots of the media's questions at the briefings were focused on establishing that narrative.

Lately Cuomo and Newsom have thrown a bit of a monkey wrench into that but the dems will be using it, along with the hoaxed up HHS Inspector General obama-ites who crafted a BS "report" which they didn't give to their leadership and sat on it for several weeks before releasing it into the press. This was on top of the 3rd narrative prong involving the now hoaxed up medical intel report supposedly given to Trump in November.

If all 3 of those fail the dems will fall back on their "W"-Katrina strategy of Trump doesn't care about people and just let them die for economic reasons. That has been a pretty consistent line from the beginning.; 4/13/20, 3:49 PM
narciso said...: the problem is the denizens of those states, then flee their states, and settle like replicators in red or reddish states,; 4/13/20, 3:51 PM
Michael K said...: ARM and Inga show. Lots of uninformed opinions. Actually, I think ARM's are informed but by the CCP daily memo.; 4/13/20, 3:52 PM
Drago said...: Its going to be a lot harder for ARM and his pals to explain how Trump is responsible for the ChiCom threats against the UK and France, but I think we will all enjoy watching how those excuses and blame-shifting-to-Trump unfolds in the coming days and weeks.

I suspect Adam Schiff will announce publicly that he has seen "evidence that is beyond circumstantial" of some nefarious Trump actions. That would be a tipoff that Nancy has been pushed to commence impeachment hearings sooner rather than later this summer.; 4/13/20, 3:53 PM
Drago said...: Michael K: "ARM and Inga show. Lots of uninformed opinions. Actually, I think ARM's are informed but by the CCP daily memo."

Oh, I'm quite certain that ARM's pitch perfect alignment with Beijings propaganda is simply a coincidence.; 4/13/20, 3:53 PM
narciso said...: btw Christopher murray has revised the death count up to 68k, not down, it's like the dreadnought in that old six million dollar man episode,; 4/13/20, 3:54 PM
Ken B said...: Joan
Good point.
One bright spot. There’s a lot of good stuff like Khan Academy and other folks on YouTube. Not a full replacement for bad schools, but a start.
There will be more!

Worse IMO than the ignorance is the ignorance of the ignorance. That innumerate poster is extremely dogmatic and certain about math he doesn’t understand, and doesn’t imagine he doesn’t understand. Lots of them here, too.; 4/13/20, 3:55 PM
Drago said...: I'm still waiting for Ken B to explain how massive tariff imbalances between trading nations is a requirement for "open markets" and how calling for tariff balance between trading nations makes one a Bernie socialist.

Must be some higher order thinking on Ken B's part.; 4/13/20, 3:58 PM
Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...: Maybe we could start a game of Drago Bingo.

Each person starts with 5x5 cards filled with words from the following selection:

Inga ... LOL ... Inga ... dossier ... WSJ ... Trump ... ARM ... Inga ... Tiananmen ... ARM ... CDC ... LOL ... WHO ... Fauci ... dems ... hoax ... Sham-peachment ... ARM ... ChiCom ... ChiCom threats ... ChiCom's ... threatening ... Huawei ... ChiCom's ... Huawei ... 24/7 ... Unexpectedly ... defense ... ChiCom's ... Uyghur's ... Tiananmen ... ChiCom's ... Uyghurs ... ChiCom propaganda ... Sham-peachment ... Schiff ... ChiCom ... deep state ... hoax ... conspiracy ... loonie ... boring and predictable

Then, first to fill out their card wins. Maybe Meade could provide a prize, perhaps a 'Get out of Banning Free Card' or a dispensation on extra white lines.; 4/13/20, 4:00 PM
Ken B said...: Fuck you ARM for leaving “Ken B” out of Drago Bingo!!

😉; 4/13/20, 4:01 PM
Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...: Sorry, my memory is not what it was.

Did I mention ...; 4/13/20, 4:07 PM
Drago said...: Certainly, playing Drago Bingo would be much more fun for a Ken B than having to provide an explanation for how calling for tariff balance between trading nations makes one a Bernie socialist.

I don't blame him for going that route.; 4/13/20, 4:09 PM
I Have Misplaced My Pants said...: lol, ARM linking the Daily Mail

Brave Pants says she's raring to go. Surely she must be in a trial by now. I linked to trials you can enter via email.

I've said it once and I'll say it again, fuck off, you petty, obsessive, obnoxious little Canadian.; 4/13/20, 4:09 PM
I Have Misplaced My Pants said...: “The sad truth Inga is that if they get their way and if/when outbreaks happen most of them will deny the connection.”

Oh yes, I know. I’ve seen it happen time after time.

The rubbing.....it feels sooooooo goooooooood

Do you two have any idea what clowns you sound like?; 4/13/20, 4:11 PM
Mark said...: The University of Virginia model used by Governor Coonman appears to be GIGO in calling for a lock-down until August. If restrictions are lifted before then, it says, new cases will skyrocket and hospitals will be overwhelmed, yada . . . yada . . . oh, you know the rest.; 4/13/20, 4:12 PM
Sebastian said...: Anne: "I think it means that we understand risk, human mortality, and the natural progression of worldwide illnesses that cause much death and suffering but do not rise to the level of a plague needing the immediate cessation of all meaningful activity."

Exactly.

So, since the risks of complications and death among young people and athletes are near zero, let's reopen K-12 and colleges (exempting the sick, perhaps teachers over 65. etc.) and all of sports.

Besides one amateur lacrosse player I saw reported a few weeks ago, have any athletes suffered any harm from the Wuhan virus, anywhere? If not, what in the world are we doing?; 4/13/20, 4:13 PM
narciso said...: the outbreaks seem to expanding in states like Michigan where the most restrictive measures are being applied, if causation has any significance,; 4/13/20, 4:14 PM
Bay Area Guy said...: @Temujin,

Meanwhile- down in Florida- we have fewer cases than California and about 1/10 the cases of New York. And Florida is among the fastest growing states in the Union. So, while the national press plays games with the reputation of Gov. DeSantis, and keeps propping up Cuomo and Newsom, they have it exactly backwards. Not surprisingly.

Bingo!

I am reminded of the great Dr. Michael Crichton (my second favorite doc, after Doc K!)

Media carries with it a credibility that is totally undeserved. You have all experienced this, in what I call the Murray Gell-Mann Amnesia effect. (I refer to it by this name because I once discussed it with Murray Gell-Mann, and by dropping a famous name I imply greater importance to myself, and to the effect, than it would otherwise have.)

Briefly stated, the Gell-Mann Amnesia effect is as follows. You open the newspaper to an article on some subject you know well. In Murray’s case, physics. In mine, show business. You read the article and see the journalist has absolutely no understanding of either the facts or the issues. Often, the article is so wrong it actually presents the story backward—reversing cause and effect. I call these the “wet streets cause rain” stories. Paper’s full of them.; 4/13/20, 4:14 PM
Drago said...: Pants: "I've said it once and I'll say it again, fuck off, you petty, obsessive, obnoxious little Canadian."

Quick correction: Ken B is the Canadian who wants the US to always be at a massive tariff imbalance.

ARM is the guy who likes pushing ChiCom propaganda.; 4/13/20, 4:14 PM
Mark said...: For the record, although the MSM will not say it, the model used by the White House that the MSM likes to sneer at and malign is funded and overseen by lefty Bill Gates.; 4/13/20, 4:14 PM
Ken B said...: My gift to the readers of this blog: an evisceration of Jennifer Rubin

https://jonathanturley.org/2020/04/13/crackpotish-washington-post-columnist-attacks-turley-for-post-written-by-someone-else/#more-154688; 4/13/20, 4:17 PM
Inga said...: “ARM and Inga show.”

Drago who has 34 comments gets no acknowledgement from Michel K. How neglectful.; 4/13/20, 4:17 PM
Inga said...: Update... 36 comments!; 4/13/20, 4:18 PM
Mark said...: What result would you expect when the big arm of THE LAW tells you, "No, you cannot go ride it out in your isolated cabin in the middle of nowhere, but must stay in your dense neighborhood"?; 4/13/20, 4:18 PM
Anne-I-Am said...: Sebastian,

Sports, sure. And schools. And colleges. ....AND THE REST OF THE FREAKING ECONOMY!

Sorry for yelling. I was overcome by my evil twin for a moment.

Far easier to decide who should stay isolated, since their numbers are far fewer, than to try to identify all of those who are safe to return to work and play.

Careful about asking the “have any athletes” question. So what if one or two got sick? Do athletes never suffer from the flu or pneumonia? Athletes play with risk all the time. We all know that every time we embark upon our chosen endeavor, we risk activity-ending injury. (I include myself in the athletic crowd—ran 8 miles up 2500 feet yesterday.

@Mark,

Anne-I-Am! I love it! Can I adopt that as my new name? I was thinking to change my handle to “A Spherical Cow of Uniform Density,” but Anne-I-Am is shorter.

Green Eggs and Ham was the first book I ever read.; 4/13/20, 4:19 PM
narciso said...: add more cowbell; 4/13/20, 4:19 PM
Drago said...: Inga: "Update... 36 comments!"

Alternate Inga: its embarrassing having all my previous hoax/conspiracy narratives pointed out.; 4/13/20, 4:21 PM
Inga said...: Pants, still incensed about her little girl missing her ballet lessons. Or cranky because she can’t stand having all her kids at home at the same time. Maybe you should’ve kept your pants on.; 4/13/20, 4:21 PM
Anne-I-Am said...: Narciso,

Dammit. I can’t get my iPad not to capitalize the n.

You must give me a tutorial. Is it just HTML stuff? Sheesh. I haven’t done any of that since the Free Republic days many, many years ago.; 4/13/20, 4:25 PM
narciso said...: truth in labeling; 4/13/20, 4:25 PM
I Have Misplaced My Pants said...: Pants, still incensed about her little girl missing her ballet lessons. Or cranky because she can’t stand having all her kids at home at the same time. Maybe you should’ve kept your pants on.

They're coming to visit Auntie Inga. Get out the puzzles and cookie recipes!; 4/13/20, 4:26 PM
narciso said...: it's fine, even people who known me a long time, have mangled it on occasion, also the software is very parochial, so it often autocucumbers foreign names, as error,; 4/13/20, 4:27 PM
Ken B said...: ARM
Not half an hour and I’m already close to a Bingo.; 4/13/20, 4:28 PM
MayBee said...: Inga said...
Pants, still incensed about her little girl missing her ballet lessons. Or cranky because she can’t stand having all her kids at home at the same time. Maybe you should’ve kept your pants on.

This in the same thread where you earlier lamented how awfully people who embraced the shut down were being treated! In the very same thread!; 4/13/20, 4:28 PM
Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...: I Have Misplaced My Pants said...
Get out the puzzles and cookie recipes!

Might I suggest Drago Bingo? They can play all day.; 4/13/20, 4:29 PM
Original Mike said...: Anne - Turn off auto-capitalization.; 4/13/20, 4:29 PM
Inga said...: “They're coming to visit Auntie Inga. Get out the puzzles and cookie recipes!”

I’d be happy to help you cope if I could.; 4/13/20, 4:29 PM
narciso said...: even valuable info was discarded; 4/13/20, 4:30 PM
I'm Not Sure said...: From Calafia Beach Pundit:

"Chart #2 compares private sector jobs (blue) with public sector jobs (red). Wow: almost overnight we have wiped out all the net job gains of the past 14 years, and the losses aren't over yet. Private sector jobs have dropped more than 13% to date. Here's a thought: to my knowledge not a single public sector employee has lost his or her job. Some or many may have been sent home, but have any been forced to endure a visit to the unemployment office? Would politicians have been so quick to decree a shutdown if that meant that 13% of public sector employees were fired along with 13% of private employees? Doesn't fairness demand that the public sector share in the pain of the shutdown? There is potential for great anger here."

Link to Chart #2:

http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2020/04/the-crisis-is-over-but-at-terrible-cost.html; 4/13/20, 4:31 PM
Inga said...: “This in the same thread where you earlier lamented how awfully people who embraced the shut down were being treated! In the very same thread!”

I wasn’t exactly lamenting it, I was interested in the dynamic at play when conservatives attack each other.; 4/13/20, 4:31 PM
tim in vermont said...: This isn’t ChiCom data, so it doesn’t match the predicted exponential pattern perfectly, it’s data as reported by Detroit.

Detroit-Warren-Dearborn

0
0
0
1
2
1
1
2
7
6
19
16
23
18
16
59
64
63
76
52
50
69
91
100
95
95
175
89. <-- April 11; 4/13/20, 4:31 PM
I'm Not Sure said...: "Link to" should say "URL to" above. Sorry.; 4/13/20, 4:32 PM
Drago said...: Ken B has found his natural allies.

And its exactly what you would expect.; 4/13/20, 4:33 PM
MayBee said...: I wasn’t exactly lamenting it, I was interested in the dynamic at play when conservatives attack each other.

Well then, you agree and love and participate in the attacking. So you've got that going for you.

As for the rest, of course conservatives disagree with each other. Just like democrats disagree with each other.; 4/13/20, 4:34 PM
WWIII Joe Biden, Husk-Puppet + America's Putin said...: Inga - sometimes conservatives (or free thinkers) (or classical liberals) (or libertarians) argue with each other because that's just how we are. We don't do the lock-step/hivemind/close ranks garbage.

Progressive democratics and neo-Marxist socialists rarely step outside of the herd or the hive.; 4/13/20, 4:36 PM
I Have Misplaced My Pants said...: I wasn’t exactly lamenting it, I was interested in the dynamic at play when conservatives attack each other.

Here's the thing though: everyone, even people you attach the same label to, are individuals with unique worldviews and opinions.

I don't know how things go on your side of the aisle, but there are no secret meetings where all the "conservatives" decide not to "attack" each other. There's no "dynamic" here at all, other than in your particular mind.; 4/13/20, 4:36 PM
Inga said...: “Ken B has found his natural allies.

And its exactly what you would expect.”

Drago sees himself as the ring master, it irritates him when some of the ponies run outside the ring a bit. He’s going to use that whip to get the naughty ponies back in the circle running prettily.; 4/13/20, 4:36 PM
Anne-I-Am said...: Original Mike,

You keep suggesting easy fixes to my technical problems. What good are you? ;-)

And you didn’t get the memo! I am now Anne-I-Am!; 4/13/20, 4:37 PM
walter said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; 4/13/20, 4:37 PM
I Have Misplaced My Pants said...: I’d be happy to help you cope if I could.

To repeat this point again, since you are a little slow in grasping it, kids and I doing really great, thanks for your concern, but sadly the people I pay money to for things like ballet lessons and housecleaning and play therapy and preschool are decidedly not.; 4/13/20, 4:38 PM
tim in vermont said...: I don't get why the fabled California herd immunity never kicked in there.; 4/13/20, 4:39 PM
Ken B said...: Inga said “I was interested in the dynamic at play when conservatives attack each other.”

There is nothing a Trump Republican hates more than a Reagan Republican.; 4/13/20, 4:39 PM
Original Mike said...: My apologies, Anne-U-R!; 4/13/20, 4:40 PM
Drago said...: Inga: "Drago sees himself as the ring master, it irritates him when some of the ponies run outside the ring a bit. He’s going to use that whip to get the naughty ponies back in the circle running prettily."

It's like you've made it a personal goal to be fundamentally wrong on just about every single observation or issue.

If so, you're doing great.; 4/13/20, 4:40 PM
Anne-I-Am said...: Original Mike!!!!!!

Success!!!! no more auto-caps! look, i can be e e cummings. narciso! no more autocucumbering your name.

IF TYPING IN ALL CAPS IS YELLING, is typing with no caps whispering?

Anne-I-Am, aka the Spherical Cow of Uniform Density; 4/13/20, 4:40 PM
CStanley said...: I’ve noticed most everyone hear being testy, as others have noted. It’s understandable on the basis of emotions running high- fear and anger and mixes of both.

But what’s disappointing is that I’ve always felt that conservatives were better at persuasive argument, yet in this situation I don’t see many people even trying to demonstrate that.

Even if you believe that this virus was never as dangerous as we’ve been told, the best way to persuade people that the government ordered restrictions can be lifted would be to treat the virus as though it actually might be a significant public health risk, and advocate for people taking stringent voluntary precautions. Show some humility, that maybe you don’t understand virology and epidemiology as much as you think you do (even if you don’t trust the experts either.)

But instead, most everyone who opposes government restrictions has been on these boards every day presenting their opinions that this was all a nothingburger, based on cherry-picked (and improperly interpreted) data at best or sometimes just based on the idea that if Democrats believe it it must be the opposite of the truth.

In other words, many of you are acting like the mirror image of leftists.; 4/13/20, 4:40 PM
walter said...: Whiney Pritzker talking about selectively allowing businesses to open end of month?
Smithfield prospect scared him. The man likes his ham.; 4/13/20, 4:40 PM
WWIII Joe Biden, Husk-Puppet + America's Putin said...: Not Sure @ 4:31,

Yeah - government employees are granted immunity from financial ruin. We pay their salaries with our tax dollars.

yippee!; 4/13/20, 4:40 PM
narciso said...: Smithfield comes from virginia, where does the iowa plant figure into it,; 4/13/20, 4:41 PM
WWIII Joe Biden, Husk-Puppet + America's Putin said...: The hivemind is found on maddow and at huffpoo. Deadly virus.; 4/13/20, 4:41 PM
Inga said...: I am so proud of raising daughters that turned out to be strong, capable, caring adult women. I’ve heard no whiny entitled mewling from them.; 4/13/20, 4:42 PM
Shouting Thomas said...: I always seek scientific and medical advice from people who sit on internet message boards for 15 hours a day.

Here’s looking at you ARM!; 4/13/20, 4:43 PM
WWIII Joe Biden, Husk-Puppet + America's Putin said...: government bureaucrats cannot get fired AND they can continue to rule and micro-manage our lives.

I'm heading into a permit situation. oh if I could bitch about it. oh oh oh.
Someday I will. But right now our local government is closed - with full pay.; 4/13/20, 4:43 PM
Anne-I-Am said...: @Drago,

SMDH. My sister and I have an agreement whenever we hear a petulant child (of any age). Ignore-ignore-ignore-ignore.

The decibel level goes up for awhile, then the silence is lovely.; 4/13/20, 4:43 PM
Shouting Thomas said...: Not to mention Inga, the fake nurse who obviously has absolutely nothing to do to occupy her time.

This is a condition known to confer deep expertise on its practitioners.; 4/13/20, 4:44 PM
Original Mike said...: Hope your selection is stable, anne-u-r.; 4/13/20, 4:46 PM
tim in vermont said...: "Drago sees himself as the ring master, it irritates him when some of the ponies run outside the ring a bit. He’s going to use that whip to get the naughty ponies back in the circle running prettily.”

I never used to read his comments. Now I remember why. But yeah, I think he sees himself as some kind of mind guard.

I am thinking that my biggest disappointment is to realize that so many of the global warming skeptics here never actually understood the arguments that people like Steve McIntyre were making. They aren’t “skeptics,” they simply deny stuff they don’t like. It’s a lot less work! I started out believing in global warming, because the "scientists said so” but it didn’t take too many actual ass kickings by skeptics, not the kind of corn cobbing that goes on in this thread, for me to take a close look at what we were being fed.

The white noise thing was a big issue, for example, in the whole hockey stick argument, where Mann was trying to prove what he saw there was a signal from CO2 and that it couldn’t have been spurious. Of course Mann had his arguments all wrong and the data he was looking at was autocorrolated, a fact he assumed away, which meant that .... why am I explaining this to you guys. No idea.; 4/13/20, 4:46 PM
narciso said...: I have posted all sorts of samizdat links that challenge the conventional wisdom, I think data is better than polemic, but there has been so much obfuscation by interested parties of the actual facts, and as with the Ukraine sham that wasted so much time and money, there is a Wurlitzer of trash data,; 4/13/20, 4:47 PM
I Have Misplaced My Pants said...: would be to treat the virus as though it actually might be a significant public health risk, and advocate for people taking stringent voluntary precautions.

I feel as though every single skeptic here has at one point or another argued for quarantining the at risk, keeping hotspots on shutdown, going easy on the large gatherings, masking, testing where available, gloves, ample PPE for health care workers. Has anyone argued against those things?

I think people get defensive because many in the pro-shutdown faction has dug in their heels so hard against acknowledging the other half of the catastrophe. Calling people 'sociopaths,' etc. I mean, I don't call someone a sociopath because I point out the nearly certain coming rise in child abuse, divorce, partner abuse, financial ruin of families, untreated medical conditions and they respond with a shrug or not at all.

But it could very well be my own bias and my annoyance at the smug and condescending personal potshots, day after day after day, from certain posters, coloring my impression of this.; 4/13/20, 4:47 PM
CStanley said...: I should add to my 4:40 post...

If you really truly are convinced that SARS2 poses no real threat, and can argue with evidence that that’s the case (that, absent the measures that have been taken, we wouldn’t now be seeing NYC like conditions in most mid to large size cities across the US and orders of magnitudes more deaths and hospitalizations)....to the point that you can’t in good conscience go along with saying even that stringent cautions should be voluntarily employed....

Then show your work and convince me. The arguments to date have been faulty and the technical discussions have been far outweighed by ad hominem attacks.; 4/13/20, 4:47 PM
Inga said...: Regarding Screeching Thomas,
Ah, what could be more fun, the entrance of the swineherd singer. What beautiful hymns has he ruined today?; 4/13/20, 4:48 PM
Shouting Thomas said...: Have a drink, Inga.

What else do you have to do?; 4/13/20, 4:48 PM
I Have Misplaced My Pants said...: I am so proud of raising daughters that turned out to be strong, capable, caring adult women. I’ve heard no whiny entitled mewling from them.

It's almost like you're a teenage girl who wants to argue just to argue, and miss the point on purpose. I mean, why?; 4/13/20, 4:48 PM
Paco Wové said...: Suggest our hostess consider renaming her blog to "Strawmanhouse" or maybe "Fallacy-of-the-excluded-middle-house".; 4/13/20, 4:49 PM
Drago said...: Pants: "I feel as though every single skeptic here has at one point or another argued for quarantining the at risk, keeping hotspots on shutdown, going easy on the large gatherings, masking, testing where available, gloves, ample PPE for health care workers. Has anyone argued against those things?"

Nope.; 4/13/20, 4:50 PM
CStanley said...: I think people get defensive because many in the pro-shutdown faction has dug in their heels so hard against acknowledging the other half of the catastrophe

Looking at it from the other side of the divide, i didn’t see anyone digging in their heels against acknowledging that. I saw in the early days of this, people angrily coming here and asserting that no one cared about the economic losses.; 4/13/20, 4:51 PM
Shouting Thomas said...: Have you ever done anything active at all, Inga?; 4/13/20, 4:51 PM
narciso said...: speaking of McIntyre; 4/13/20, 4:51 PM
Anne-I-Am said...: @tim in vermont,

Steve McIntyre’s work was masterful. I am not sure your assertion about persuasion is accurate. I have gone through, ad nauseum, the data that lead me to conclude that AGW is not a threat. All the way down to the single larch tree that Michael Mann relied on. They don’t miss a beat.

Perhaps some of the conservatives here, like me, have decided to bypass the bullshit and just make our assertions, to save a bit of oxygen.; 4/13/20, 4:51 PM
walter said...: True narc',
I saw the Chicago dateline. FWIW There is a Chicago location.; 4/13/20, 4:52 PM
Shouting Thomas said...: This is your life, Inga, and it has been for years.

Drinking and sitting on your ass all day and looking for an argument.

I've seen slugs with a deeper intellectual and spiritual life.; 4/13/20, 4:52 PM
Michael K said...: But instead, most everyone who opposes government restrictions has been on these boards every day presenting their opinions that this was all a nothingburger, based on cherry-picked (and improperly interpreted) data at best or sometimes just based on the idea that if Democrats believe it it must be the opposite of the truth.

I have not seen that but I pretty much avoid Inga/ARM threads.; 4/13/20, 4:53 PM
tim in vermont said...: "Perhaps some of the conservatives here, like me, have decided to bypass the bullshit and just make our assertions, to save a bit of oxygen.”

So the stakes aren’t high enough to be worth doing a little extra typing?; 4/13/20, 4:53 PM
narciso said...: there's more than enough failure to go around, now considering that, have they undercalculated the economic impact of this flatline, magic eightball says probably,; 4/13/20, 4:53 PM
Anne-I-Am said...: @ You Who has Misplaced Her Pants,

Ignore-ignore-ignore-ignore! It eventually goes away.

Pleased to make your acquaintance, by the way.

Anne-I-Am aka the Spherical Cow of Uniform Density; 4/13/20, 4:54 PM
I Have Misplaced My Pants said...: Looking at it from the other side of the divide, i didn’t see anyone digging in their heels against acknowledging that. I saw in the early days of this, people angrily coming here and asserting that no one cared about the economic losses.

One personal example: I said I was less that delighted that my kids' happy and busy lives have come to a screeching halt, and that I am worried about the people whom my household supports in exchange for their services, and Inga called this 'entitled whiny mewling.' This is not exactly winning people to your side.; 4/13/20, 4:55 PM
Michael K said...: Good link narciso; 4/13/20, 4:55 PM
Mark said...: Just NOW -- Fauci is disabusing people from this idea that he said that Trump dropped the ball.; 4/13/20, 4:55 PM
Ken B said...: As to CStanley's point, I have several times raised the issue of asymptomatic spreaders. I posted a link today in fact.
This is a serious challenge to any re opening plan, but especially to those not based on testing. And I have never had a coherent, much less cogent, response. Instead I see posts about employers getting waivers against lawsuits, or suggestions that you go out if you have no fever.

I have outlined testing plans. Only Yancey Ward has responded to the substance, but his response was basically just that we couldn’t do it in time for early opening. (Likely true, which is why my expectation is opening a bit later.) I did see “testing is useless” responses which are exactly what CStanley is talking about: a refusal to take the threat seriously.; 4/13/20, 4:55 PM
Inga said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; 4/13/20, 4:55 PM
Inga said...: Dr. Fauci speaking now, saying if mitigation were to have been instituted earlier, more lives would’ve been saved. He is a brave man.; 4/13/20, 4:56 PM
I Have Misplaced My Pants said...: Anne, hello, and you're right, of course, but, sometimes I can't help a bewildered why, though?!.

By the way, you remind me very much of a recently departed poster, who called herself Angle-Dyne. I liked her and I like you. :); 4/13/20, 4:56 PM
tim in vermont said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; 4/13/20, 4:56 PM
Drago said...: Inga:"Dr. Fauci speaking now, saying if mitigation were to have been instituted earlier, more lives would’ve been saved. He is a brave man."

LOLOLOLOLOL

Until you actually review his public statements from January thru March!!

Too funny.; 4/13/20, 4:57 PM
MayBee said...: But instead, most everyone who opposes government restrictions has been on these boards every day presenting their opinions that this was all a nothingburger, based on cherry-picked (and improperly interpreted) data at best or sometimes just based on the idea that if Democrats believe it it must be the opposite of the truth.

I adore you, CStanley. I have spent a lot of time here and can't think of who you are referring to when you say they see this as a nothing burger.; 4/13/20, 4:57 PM
Mark said...: Fauci pushing back against reporter with disgust in his voice, "Don't even imply that."; 4/13/20, 4:58 PM
Shouting Thomas said...: Who's ass gives out first... Inga or ARM?; 4/13/20, 4:59 PM
MayBee said...: Inga said...

Dr. Fauci speaking now, saying if mitigation were to have been instituted earlier, more lives would’ve been saved. He is a brave man.

Yes, but he went on from there.

If we don't allow people to drive, there will be no traffic accidents. Lives will be saved! Right?
Please, this idea that the choice is simply save people vs kill people is so simplistic!; 4/13/20, 4:59 PM
WWIII Joe Biden, Husk-Puppet + America's Putin said...: I'm not sure what good it does to hand-wring about what we should have done sooner?
Or why, if Trump is such a fuck-up, every other leader in Europe is superior and gets a pass.
Did anyone say "shut the world down" fast enough?; 4/13/20, 5:00 PM
Inga said...: “By the way, you remind me very much of a recently departed poster, who called herself Angle-Dyne.”

Angle-Dyne took this virus seriously and actually pushed back at the deniers.; 4/13/20, 5:00 PM
tim in vermont said...: Watch the press conference. So many of your issues get addressed there. You can accuse me of taking DJT’s positions if you want, but not some of these crazy positions you are ascribing to me, such as I don’t care about the dislocations that are going on, or I think that perfect safety is required to re-open the economy. I don’t. It’s not on offer. What else was not on offer was a way through this without trillions of dollars of damage to our economy. That’s my opinion. You may not like it, but nobody here has really made an honest effort to change my mind based on data and then addressed my objections to their statements.; 4/13/20, 5:01 PM
Drago said...: Mark: "Just NOW -- Fauci is disabusing people from this idea that he said that Trump dropped the ball."

You have to put it in a dossier to get Inga to believe it.; 4/13/20, 5:02 PM
Mark said...: Dr. Fauci speaking now, saying if mitigation were to have been instituted earlier, more lives would’ve been saved. He is a brave man.

Even as Fauci is in the midst of saying the narrative is BS, some continue to push the narrative.; 4/13/20, 5:02 PM
Shouting Thomas said...: I'd think the hemorrhoids and anal fissures would have just about made it impossible for you to sit by now, Inga.

Do you have one of those donut pillows to take the pressure off your rectum?; 4/13/20, 5:02 PM
I Have Misplaced My Pants said...: If we don't allow people to drive, there will be no traffic accidents. Lives will be saved! Right?
Please, this idea that the choice is simply save people vs kill people is so simplistic!

Drunk driving in Texas killed 3 times as many people in 2017 as CV has so far, but I am getting no takers on FB when I ask people if they are ready to permanently close bars. I mean, if we can insist that the threat from CV is so great that people must work, educate their kids, worship, and shop at home, why can't we insist that they drink at home?; 4/13/20, 5:03 PM
Anne-I-Am said...: @Tim,

No, the stakes are certainly worth it. Having taken the time and made the efforts, many times, to show my work and having been shouted down (no attempt to present other data, etc), in the AGW arena, I no longer engage in the argument.

As far as this board goes, I have presented the perspective of a pulmonologist/critical care physician, among other things based on my experience and training. The ad hom attacks were unpleasant. Didn’t bother me, I just don’t care to engage with harridans and sanctimonious scolds.; 4/13/20, 5:03 PM
I Have Misplaced My Pants said...: Angle-Dyne took this virus seriously and actually pushed back at the deniers.

I wasn't talking to you, and I wasn't referring to her position on the virus.; 4/13/20, 5:04 PM
narciso said...: the eu were magnitudes worse, consider how they treated Italy, their brethren, fauci realizes he's writing checks he can't cash' to refer to a line from top gun,; 4/13/20, 5:04 PM
tim in vermont said...: What was really helpful was Biden’s suggestion that we need a vaccine! Genius! Nobody thought of that!; 4/13/20, 5:04 PM
Bay Area Guy said...: I have a meeting tonight with my money guy. Here comes the bloodbath!

Please explain again to me why we bought all that fucking Disney stock at Christmas, you poltroon!:)

Commentator X - "Then show your work and convince me"

Um, didn't work for the OJ jury, won't work for you. Too dense:)

Carry on.; 4/13/20, 5:06 PM
WWIII Joe Biden, Husk-Puppet + America's Putin said...: The local press are thrilled to pimp Biden's fresh ideas as if he is the real president right now.; 4/13/20, 5:09 PM
Inga said...: “Angle-Dyne took this virus seriously and actually pushed back at the deniers.”

“I wasn't talking to you, and I wasn't referring to her position on the virus.”

I don’t care who you were talking to. I had a point to make and I made it.; 4/13/20, 5:09 PM
bagoh20 said...: "I don't get why the fabled California herd immunity never kicked in there."

Maybe your being sarcastic, but CA has only 18 deaths per million, one of the lowest in the country, and probably the first state to have the virus. Maybe it's something else beside immunity, but I haven't heard any other reasonable explanation for why they are doing so well even in big cities. When this started, CA was expected to be the worst state for death and infection, but something happened. I know a lot of people in CA, and have many business connections there, and they tell me that yes, they had a lock down, but it's not all that well-followed, nor enforced.

CA....18/million
NY...513/million
WI....27/million; 4/13/20, 5:11 PM
I Have Misplaced My Pants said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; 4/13/20, 5:11 PM
bagoh20 said...: There is another explanation for CA that makes sense to me, which is that they were hit with another variant of the virus that was less lethal, but still proved immunity.; 4/13/20, 5:12 PM
Anne-I-Am said...: @Tim,

Also, I don’t believe there is adequate data—either in quality or quantity.

What we do have is a number of intriguing case studies right here in the US. (I prefer to look at the US because we know what kind of health care we have; we know how we count the numbers, for the most part). We have NY—a singularity, really. Louisiana is closer to NY than other places. Chicago. Detroit.

I have personal knowledge of Indianapolis, and frank input from my BIL.

I live in NoCal—which i would have expected to be far worse than it is. Santa Clara county has been badly affected—not surprisingly. The county has a majority Asian population. And Asian in NoCal means Chinese or Korean. (I can’t figure out why there are so few Japanese.)

Even SC county is starting to ease off. Their leadership is opening stores and encouraging activity.

So I let logic and reason guide my conclusions. This is a dangerous disease for a certain, well-defined group of people. For the rest of us, it can range in effect from nothing to a bad flu. The ICU crush we feared never happened, not even in NYC, with the exception of a few poorly-run public hospitals.

I was not against slowing things way down in the beginning—I took a wait and see attitude. The thing is, I think we have waited and seen.

If the goal of the shutdown was to ease the pressure on hospitals and ICUs, we have accomplished our goal. And that is what we are told the goal was.

This isn’t Calvinball. Those of us who see the rules changing in front of us are rightfully outraged, I think.; 4/13/20, 5:14 PM
Shouting Thomas said...: The answer to your question, Inga the slug, is that I just deposited a check for $1,000 for singing and playing hymns last week.

Oddly, this matters more than the opinion of a lazy, drunk with nothing to do.

I generally attribute the hostility of lazy slugs like you to jealousy.

Do something for Christ's sake. And I mean that in both senses. Shut the fuck up, and go outdoors and do something. Anything.

Since you never do anything, and appear absolutely incapable of actually doing anything (like ARM), why do you think your opinions are of such importance?

I've be doing a virtual concert soon. This will be an opportunity for your to do the only thing you're really good at... back stabbing.

In a way ARM is worse. He figures he should be sleeping with Melania.; 4/13/20, 5:14 PM
Inga said...: “There is another explanation for CA that makes sense to me, which is that they were hit with another variant of the virus that was less lethal, but still proved immunity.”

This actually makes sense.; 4/13/20, 5:14 PM
Bay Area Guy said...: NYU scientists: Largest US study of COVID-19 finds obesity the single biggest 'chronic' factor in New York City's hospitalizations

"Doctors at NYU Langone Health center conducted the largest study so far of US hospital admissions for COVID-19, focused on New York City. They found obesity, along with age, was the biggest deciding factor in hospital admissions, which may suggest the role of hyper-inflammatory reactions that can happen in those with the disease."

Old and obese - lotta problems independent from the Kung Flu. Co-Morbidities. There's that word again.; 4/13/20, 5:15 PM
Shouting Thomas said...: Inga, for the sake of God, shut up and go doing something.

Your anus is crying out for relief!; 4/13/20, 5:15 PM
tim in vermont said...: "Maybe your being sarcastic, but CA has only 18 deaths per million, “

I was talking about New Orleans. I don’t understand what is going on in California and I am happy to admit it. But I am not willing to see decisions made based on hunches. Especially when NCY, Detroit, Chicago, New Orleans seem to be following an entirely different path. It’s being studied now by the CDC. Hopefully they will hurry it along. We probably can’t wait for the results from that study though.; 4/13/20, 5:16 PM
Inga said...: “Your anus is crying out for relief!”

Your concern for my anus is heartwarming.; 4/13/20, 5:17 PM
MayBee said...: So the stakes aren’t high enough to be worth doing a little extra typing?

I get what you're saying, but IMHO if the governors want to make it illegal run your own business, to go to your own home, to visit another person in a private home, or to buy plants at store....I think it's up to the governors to make their cases with data. These are unprecendented steps and we aren't getting unprecedented explanations and data from the people with the power.; 4/13/20, 5:18 PM