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April 19, 2020
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503 comments:
1 – 200 of 503 Newer› Newest»Thanks for returning to your normal skepticism, sarcasm, humor and disrespect for authority, professor.
I thought we’d completely lost you to the panic for a while.
The check is in the mail!
That's funny shouting Thomas. I've noticed that with people in my life who will be completely normal one day and then next time I see them they've been absorbed into the Borg and are telling me 'we're all in this together' and 'stay safe' through some piece of old cloth they have wrapped around their face. I did start thinking Althouse had been absorbed into the Borg a while back. I'll keep an eye out to see if your right and she really has escaped
Chalk or paint?
if you are 'not of the body' they will treat you, as such.
Today’s gospel is the story of Doubting Thomas.
I hope you read it or heard it at church.
It’s a great one.
What if someone identifies as a Smurf?
Suddenly it’s all panic politics all of the time. Commander in Chief Trump has flushed them out. Who is that masked man?
Trippy!
On Wisconsin: Derrick Van Orden
"I thought we’d completely lost you to the panic for a while."
And Meade, which was odder.
Now, will they become part of honest retrospective rethinking, a thorough mea culpa for the alarmists' part in supporting the most devastating catastrophe in recent American history, and help to resist any further insanity?
If so, I will even refrain from calling it The Reckoning and urge John Henry to postpone his retribution.
... don't be blue.
"Just ring the fucking bell, you pansy."
Little Jesse was a gambler, night and day
He used crooked cards and dice
Sinful guy, good hearted but had no soul
Heart was hard and cold like ice
Jesse was a wild reckless gambler
Won a gang of change
...
Come here mama with that can of booze
The dying crapshooter's loosing me
He's got the dying crapshooters blues
Well gamblin Jesse is going to see
The dying crapshooter is leaving me and the world
Dying crapshooters blues
Word on the street is that my daughter’s college may not open for in-person classes in the fall .... but will still want full tuition. lol
Many of us thought that higher education would collapse, but not like this!
For man holds in his mortal hands the power to abolish all forms of human poverty and all forms of human life. And yet the same revolutionary beliefs for which our forebears fought are still at issue around the globe—the belief that the rights of man come not from the generosity of the state but from the hand of God.
John F. Kennedy, Inaugural Address 1961
Now that is pretty.
Handel, Theodora
His last great oratorio. Lots of choruses, few solos.
Happy Divine Mercy Sunday to all!
Praise the LORD, for he is good; for his mercy endures forever;
Praise the God of gods; for his mercy endures forever;
Praise the Lord of lords; for his mercy endures forever;
Who alone has done great wonders, for his mercy endures forever . . .
The Lord remembered us in our low estate, for his mercy endures forever;
Freed us from our foes, for his mercy endures forever;
And gives bread to all flesh, for his mercy endures forever.
Give thanks to the LORD, for he is good, his mercy endures forever. . .
In danger I called on the LORD; the LORD answered me and set me free.
The LORD is with me; I am not afraid; what can mortals do against me?
The LORD is with me as my helper; I shall look in triumph on my foes.
Better to take refuge in the LORD than to put one’s trust in mortals.
Better to take refuge in the LORD than to put one’s trust in princes. . .
I was hard pressed and falling, but the LORD came to my help.
The LORD, my strength and might, has become my savior. . . .
Give thanks to the LORD, for he is good, his mercy endures forever.
(Ps 136 and 118)
Just so I am clear on this: Trump is not responsible for promulgating the 100,000 to 200,000 deaths estimate and Trump is not responsible for the bat-shit crazy $2 trillion bailout. No panic there.
Trump said, "So we have between 100,000 and 200,000, and we altogether have done a very good job".
The end of NYC post Pandemic: Quite the contrary. I think it will be wonderful without crowds. I must be crazy, because I don't go to NYC for crowds, concerts or (rip-off) Broadway shows. All the great things about NYC are still there: over 17 different species of trees in Central Park, the endless period architecture and mouldings, the wonderful paths along the Hudson and East Rivers. The NY birds & wildlife, which are free to roam now that the crowds have gone, hopefully for good. All the best things about NYC are free and don't involve restaurants, crowds, or spending money.
Some movies are like comfort food. The other day North by Northwest was on TCM. I was following the news but could switch over during the commercials....Random thoughts: It's extremely inefficient to try to use a crop duster plane to kill someone. There are easier ways....When an actor creates a persona as fabulous as that of Cary Grant isn't that a greater artistic achievement than playing Hamlet? Hamlet is Shakespeare's achievement but Cary Grant was Archibald Leach's creation. I don't know if Cary Grant was a great actor but he played Cary Grant to perfection.
"A cyclops took down this tree"
No, ARM- he isn't responsible for either.
Trump bought into the 240,000 death prediction because it was first not-completely-ludicrous prediction any of the "experts" offerred up. The reasoning is quite simple- that is now the bar for judging success- but I get it, you do know this, and you know that there are not going to even 100,000 deaths from this by the time people vote in November, so you change tactics and try to pin alarmist on Trump instead.
As for the bailout- that became the only political path forward after we got stampeded into shutting every "non-essential" business down. Trump did try to stop the stampede (and got criticized for it by the likes you), but no one was listening. I don't like it, and I think it was needlessly broad in scope, and it wouldn't have been so bad if we just had behaved less like lemmings in the first place.
You have to beat Trump with someone who would have done things much different, ARM, and you Democrats don't have that. Lacking that, you need to be hoping for a big take off in COVID-19 cases this Summer, which I know you will be hoping for- you simply won't be able to stop yourself for wishing it.
Blogger Shouting Thomas said...
"Thanks for returning to your normal skepticism, sarcasm, humor and disrespect for authority, professor.
I thought we’d completely lost you to the panic for a while."
The mob mentality combined with misinformation/disinformation can be very powerful. We are now in possession of enough facts that we are gaining some perspective on COVID-19. We have enough facts that we are able to ask meaningful questions. Granted, government is involved so we'll never know the full truth. But soon the actions of government will belie their pronouncements. We are shifting to "face saving".
Comment by Insty:
Top Ten Surprising Consequences of Covid-19 Hysteria:
1: Democrat governors rediscover federalism.
2: Wanna-be totalitarians can’t help but unmask themselves.
3: Trump gets a daily platform to smack the media around (watched by millions).
4: The CDC is exposed as just another dysfunctional gov. agency.
5: FDA, same as above.
6: WHO, same as FDA, CDC.
7: The US media is in China’s pocket.
8: “Models” completely useless except to frighten citizens.
9: We now know Nancy Pelosi has a $24,000.00 fridge.
And the 10th most surprising consequence of the Covid-19 hysteria? Donald Trump was right about China the whole time, and everybody who didn’t know it before knows it now.
Yeah, pretty much. To be honest, I’m kinda jealous of the fridge.
18Posted at 12:11 pm by Glenn Reynolds
Yeah, I wish it was me, but, alas, twas not. They got a few commentators over there, on par with this crowd.
Carry on, comrades.
I have a saying: If I could do it, it isn't art. I have zero artistic talent, so have a reliable gauge.
I could do that. I never would, but I could.
I'm putting out my hummingbird feeder today. Only 3 sitings in MI so far, but spring is here.
When this first started, I wondered how companies were going to change their advertising.
This is creepy:
Every Covid-19 Commercial is Exactly the Same
we seem to doing all the wrong things> we don't protect the most vulnerable, we are inflicting grievous economic pain, the remedies are pitiful.
"And the 10th most surprising consequence of the Covid-19 hysteria? Donald Trump was right about China the whole time, and everybody who didn’t know it before knows it now."
This just sunk in for me today. When this virus appeared in China they isolated Wuhan from the rest of the country. They shut down road travel and domestic air travel out of Wuhan but did not shutdown international travel and also didn't let the rest of the world know they had this virus. That is really shocking. That's right up there with the Democrats nominating a dementia patient for president of the United States. It used to be hard to shock me and this year is proving to be very shocking
"The US media is in China's pocket"
This explains China News Network's continued existence.
Money for nothin'
Checks for free..
https://www.forbes.com/sites/ryanguina/2020/04/18/proposed-2000-monthly-stimulus-checks-and-canceled-rent-and-mortgage-payments-for-1-year/
lesssons learned
I guess the NYTimes didn't find this story from the right-wing Boston Globe newsworthy since I didn't see a link come up for the NYTimes in Google just now.
In short, Chelsea, MA- a Boston suburb with 712 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 39 confirmed deaths- was found by serological tests on the street by Mass General Hospital to have an actual infection rate of 32 percent. The researchers tested 200 people and found 64 of them were positive for IgM and IgG antibodies to COVID-19. The suburb has around 40,000 residents, so you can do the math for yourself.
"You have to beat Trump with someone who would have done things much different, ARM, and you Democrats don't have that."
Yeah, but they'll just lie about it (see Pelosi) and the media will report it as fact.
Here's Dr. Tony "Roundabout" Fauci discussing testing. Notice how he careens all the over the place, but never cites any numbers? He's like Trump -- but with a fancy medical degree, but no political skills or appeal or any connection whatsoever to the common man.
Tony on testing:
So please don’t anyone interpret it that I’m downplaying testing, but the emphasis that we’ve been hearing is essentially, “testing is everything,” and it isn’t. It’s the kinds of things that we’ve been doing — the mitigation strategies — that are an important part of that.
Now, just a couple of things before I hand it over to my colleagues. No doubt — no doubt that, early on, we had a problem. I had publicly said that we had a problem early on. There was a problem that had to be corrected, and it was corrected. It was a problem that was a technical problem from within that was corrected. And it was an issue of embracing — the way we have now, and should have — the private sector, who clearly has the capability of making and providing tests at the level that we will need them for any of the things that I’ve just spoken about.
This is how you end up, if you never face a tough question from dipshit reporters or scientists who are afraid if they cross your path, you'll withdraw their funding.
Carry on, Comrades.
The Link to Tony's talk above is here.
32% infection rate is exactly in line with the sampling done in Chicago and Washington.
You want a definition of stupid? Here you go.
Yancey Ward said...
he isn't responsible for either.
If he isn't responsible for assessing the threat level and isn't responsible for calibrating the response then he should be fired, because that was his job.
Subterranean Home-bound Blues
We're out on the pavement
Thinking about the government
The man in the trench coat
Badge out, laid off
Says he's got a bad cough
Wants to get paid off
...
Damn, Wisconsin has some people I really like! After the two Co-hosts of this blog, here's my next favorite Badger -- Derrick Van Orden, ex-Navy Seal running for Congress in Wisconsin.
Today, Van Orden lives in Hager City, Wisconsin, with his wife Sara on a small farm, is retired from the military, pursuing a law degree — because why not? — and is running for the Republican nomination for Congress in the state's 3rd District to try to take on Democrat Ron Kind in the fall.
But first he has to win the primary.
Kind has represented the sprawling district in the House since 1997; in 2016, Donald Trump won the district by 4.5 percentage points.
Van Orden’s announcement came in the early days of the pandemic crisis. “I told my team we have to stop everything we are doing, like sending drafts of fundraising letters,” he said. "We're not doing any of that. We're just not going to do this; what we're going to do is we're going to start something called Neighbors Helping Neighbors of the Wisconsin 3rd District."
@Misplaced Pants, a few cafe threads ago you mentioned purchasing an 870. Have you had a chance to try it on the range yet? Which of the approximately 3.5 million versions do you have? I like the short-barreled (18.5 inches) version with front and rear sights. It weighs 7 pounds 9 ounces empty, which is only a pound or so heavier than an AR or a Winchester '92.
If you're new to shotguns the following video might be of interest: bird shot for home defense. If you bought your 870 for home defense but live in a rural area you might not care about overpenetration, but if you live in an urban environment or a suburban-type development you might worry about missing a home intruder and blasting through your walls and into a neighbor's bedroom. Also, generally speaking, bird shot has less recoil than buck shot.
If you're new to guns, period, I recomment this video, where Paul introduces you to types of guns and pros and cons of each, and also tells you something about himself (and his speech issues).
There is potential for a landslide @JoeBiden victory in Wisconsin, and that should worry @realdonaldtrump.
Biden's support in the state has quadrupled since February.
-Washington Examiner
What the hell is going on over there?
Give me back my wig
Honey now let your head go bald
Give me back my wig
Honey now let your head go bald
Really didn't have no business
Honey buyin' you no wig at all
some day someone with unearth that park, and they'll wonder what were they thinking, it's like in Clarke's 2010, when some archaeologists uncover the original star wars in Tunisia,
ARM, what exactly was he supposed to do when the governors shut down the country's economy? Quit- try to over-rule them with force? Exactly what was he supposed to do in that circumstance? I realize what your goal is here, but are really so blind that you don't see how stupid and insipid you appear to others?
If he had fought back strongly against the shutdowns, you would have been in these same threads condemning him for that. If he hadn't pushed for and signed the "relief" packages passed by Congress, you would have been here criticizing him for that. In short, nothing he did or could have done would have received any praise from you, so your critiques are basically you wasting your time. Take them somewhere they might actually fool some people. I hate to see someone flail around uselessly like you do, even if I don't like them.
From that Boston Globe article --
Mass. General researcher says the results point to a ‘raging epidemic,’ but may also indicate the city is further along the disease curve than some other municipalities
So they are still trying to portray this as alarming news, when it is in fact the opposite. The real crisis is not in lots of people being infected, it is in lots of people needing intensive treatment and/or dying. If the antibody tests show that this is a "raging epidemic," then it is relatively not as deadly as the angry alarmists demand that you believe.
Chickelit said
This explains China News Network's continued existence.
... Eloi Musk finds this puzzling
'What I find most surprising is that CNN still exists'
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/apr/16/elon-musk-what-i-find-most-surprising-is-that-cnn-/
ST: Today’s gospel is the story of Doubting Thomas.
Spoiler alert!
Mass starts in 30 minutes.
Dr. John Lee -- There's no direct evidence that the lockdowns are working"
Spiked: What problems do you see in the way figures are currently being recorded and reported?
Lee: The figures are just so unreliable. It’s very difficult to understand when you are looking at figures from different countries, and figures in isolation about things like death, what they really mean. And obviously, if we can’t understand what the figures mean, it is quite difficult to then know what we should do about them.
These figures are then fed into models of the disease and the epidemic which are being used to influence and inform public policy. But those models are only as good as their input data and the assumptions they make. And there are so many unknowns which means the models’ outputs are really quite questionable. And given that we have now got ourselves into this situation, for a variety of reasons, getting ourselves out of it using the same models and predictions is even more questionable. So we are in a very difficult situation.
For example, we are currently in lockdown for two reasons. One is that the initial figures suggested that we were dealing with a very highly virulent disease. The World Health Organisation initially suggested that the case-fatality rate – the proportion of people diagnosed with the disease who die – would be 3.4 per cent. This is a very high number which would have caused a huge number of deaths. But as we have had gradually more and more data coming in, those percentages have been falling. In many examples, more complete data are now suggesting case-fatality rates of 0.4 per cent. My guess is that it will end up between 0.5 and 0.1 per cent, and probably nearer to the lower end of that. So if the disease isn’t as virulent as was originally thought, the number of deaths will be correspondingly lower.
The second reason that we were then put into lockdown is that it was assumed that this new virus was going to rip through the population, and a very high percentage of people were going to be infected quickly. This would cause a big surge or peak of cases which healthcare systems wouldn’t be able to deal with. The lockdown is supposed to reduce that peak, to enable health systems to cope with it. We had various pictures from Italy, Spain, New York and other places showing that health systems weren’t able to cope. But of course, in lots of other places, health systems have been able to cope with it.
The real point is that there isn’t any direct evidence that what we are doing is actually affecting the peak. It is possible to make arguments that sound reasonable that a lockdown should affect the peak. And yet other places which are doing different things seem to have similarly shaped graphs. It is only an assumption that the lockdown is having a big effect on the virus spread, but this is not a known scientific fact.
Browndog: "What the hell is going on over there?"
Phil Anschutz owns the Washington Examiner.
Anschutz you may recall was the key benefactor of the Weekly Standard when they went over the edge.
"we don't protect the most vulnerable, we are inflicting grievous economic pain"
That the insanity right there.
But some of the vulnerable can't be fully protected: bad bugs are gonna get into nursing homes, as they do all the damn time, and old, sick people are gonna die, as they do all the damn time, being old and sick and all. And of course, shutting down K-12 does nothing to protect people in nursing homes anyway.
The best way to protect the most vulnerable is to surround them with immune people. We need more cases.
I forgot why i unfollwed Cernovich on twitter.
Hate when that happens.
Yes, Browndog, I noticed the same thing- every ad starts out the same. I also am getting annoyed by the phrase "We're all in this together." Everytime I hear it, it grates on me- I think about the Robert DeNiro line in "Brazil"- there the phrase had a completely different connotation- utterly pointless hope- here it just seems Borg-like and oppressive.
"There's no direct evidence that the lockdowns are working"
Nor was there any evidence to think that they would "work." As Johan Giesecke already pointed out in his critique of the panic. Which is the point of the panic: evidence and rationality out the door.
But it is good to see the Wittkowskis, Gieseckes, and Lees getting a hearing now, belatedly, to challenge disastrous alarmism.
"I realize what your goal is here"
Then why are you talking to him? That's what we have Drago for.
I mean, it's a free country (was a free country) but damn…
A recent Johns Hopkins study claims
more than 250,000 people in the U.S. die every year from medical errors.
Other reports claim the numbers to be as high as 440,000.
Medical errors are the third-leading cause of death after heart disease and cancer.
if Covid dont kill ya, this irony will
sometimes he can be a jerk,
Yes, Mark, they did try to play it down as bad news- they can't help it- they are The Boston Globe after all.
My opinion is this- the safest places to be next Winter in regards to COVID-19 are likely to be the places suffering right now- New York City, Boston- or basically the entire Acela Corridor. A lot of the places in the South might also be pretty safe- there not as much herd immunity is needed to keep the virus at bay, and most of the lockdowns have been very, very soft ones- we don't actually stay locked in our houses and avoid other people, and a lot of the businesses are still open, just not personal services kinds.
OM: "Then why are you talking to him? That's what we have Drago for."
Its really all about division of labor and overall group efficiency and effectiveness.
Working together I know we can achieve great things.
Original Mike,
My bad- you are, of course, correct. It is just that particularly intellectually dishonest things set me off.
Yancey Ward said...
you appear to others
The majority of the country agrees with me. Not with you. With me.
That's the first painted stump I've seen its beautiful.
"It is just that particularly intellectually dishonest things set me off."
And that's why he does it.
Shooting advice on TV cop show, "Aim for the center of mass."
There may not be any mass at the center of mass. High-jumpers' center of mass goes under the bar, not over. That's how they jump so high.
Somebody should dig into the old thesaurus and find another word for "tout" when referring to Trump and hydroxychloroquine.
Be Happy ARM - your side gets Biden-Hillary and all the wonderful deep state corruption and political D-party family enrichment that goes along with it.
Rejoice.
Worth repeating, since "what if we hadn't" will be one of the favorite alarmist backtracking tropes:
"The real point is that there isn’t any direct evidence that what we are doing is actually affecting the peak. It is possible to make arguments that sound reasonable that a lockdown should affect the peak. And yet other places which are doing different things seem to have similarly shaped graphs. It is only an assumption that the lockdown is having a big effect on the virus spread, but this is not a known scientific fact."
Yancey Ward said...
particularly intellectually dishonest things set me off
Then you should be appalled by the claim that Trump is not currently president of this country.
About Thomas, he gets a bad rap sometimes.
Remember --
Jesus said to them clearly, “Lazarus has died. And I am glad for you that I was not there, that you may believe. Let us go to him.”
So Thomas, called Didymus,* said to his fellow disciples, “Let us also go to die with him.”
Thomas had plenty of faith in Jesus.
@Yancey Ward: ARM is for anything to take down Trump. Reasoning with him/her is futile, because his goal cannot be changed. So in a sense you look foolish to argue with him/her. I stopped quite a while ago. It's better to just snark and ridicule him/her. There are characters here at Althouse who exist merely to inject opposition. ARM is a good example. But you knew that already. Carry on.
I mean, unlike with Robert Cook -- who makes you stop and think sometimes -- ARM just asks you to stop thinking.
@Yancey Ward:
there not as much herd immunity is needed to keep the virus at bay
What is the evidence that "herd immunity" will keep the virus at bay given that we do not yet fully understand the human immune response to the infection? We don't know how strong any such immunity may be be conferred or for how long it may last. Preliminary indication of reinfections in South Korea are worrying, but the cases are still too new to draw much conclusions from.
Chuck Todd had Whitmer on today and asked if she had any regrets: she said no.
So I figured the next question would be along the lines of “you don’t even regret ordering that stores can sell lottery tickets but not seeds or paint?” But no, he didn’t ask. And he didn’t grapple with the fact that this is the kind of abuse that people are protesting. Instead Todd framed it as “protests against social distancing” in a question to Dewine. And of course MTP footage of protesters in Ohio found a pickup with a confederate flag (among others).
I hope the tree stump belongs to the artist.
If it does, it’s beautiful.
If it doesn’t, I hope it’s chalk.
If it is, it’s beautiful.
If it isn’t, it is graffiti.
If it is graffiti the beauty is lost.
Lovely. A treasure finding this on a tree stump on a wooded path.
Beijing Boy: "The majority of the country agrees with me. Not with you. With me."
Yes, I can see where you would believe that.
But then again, you believe everything out of Beijing as well.
So there's that.
"What is the evidence that "herd immunity" will keep the virus at bay given that we do not yet fully understand the human immune response to the infection?"
The same evidence we have of most other viruses. Sure, it is possible that we will not be able to develop herd immunity regardless of what we do, but then that leaves us nowhere, doesn't it? We won't be stop an asteroid the size of Montana from destroying the Earth, either.
Chickelit,
I am not reasoning with ARM- I am highlighting him is all. It isn't worth my time since it doesn't actually need to be done- ARM convinces no one.
The same evidence we have of most other viruses.
The immune response to different viruses varies widely. This virus has not been around long enough for us to have evidence for what the long-term human immune response will be.
In other news:
Bjorn Lomborg Twitter:
The Oxford University Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine has updated its estimates of the fatality of corona:
- Case Fatality Rate is likely between 0.1-0.36%
https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global-covid-19-case-fatality-rates/
And this will be on top of decreased annual deaths in the US during 2020 when compared with previous years.
This has been my general attitude toward's Ioannidis' critique that we are "making decisions without reliable data." By the end of February, there was very little "reliable data" on which we could base any decision. Even as late as February 27th, Trump said, "I don’t think it’s going to come to that, especially with the fact that we’re going down, not up. We’re going very substantially down, not up."
Farmer, I have written it before, but here it is again- the only chance to eradicate the virus through shutdowns was lost when the first infected person flew out of China, and that person flew out of China before anyone even knew the virus existed. The experts tell us that a vaccine won't be widely available for at least a year, and that such a vaccine might not be available at all. We will make the best of a bad situation, even if we think we won't, or if we don't want to.
Yancey Ward said...
convinces no one.
No really necessary when more than half the country already agrees. This site used to encompass a plurality of views, but at some point it got invaded by ditto heads from Instapundit and has degenerated into a mono-culture, out of touch with much of the rest of the country.
And now this, the UK delivers a body blow to ARM and the rest of the ChiCom defenders:
"UK moves to drop Huawei as 5G vendor, citing China coronavirus transparency"
But don't worry ARM! Your Beijing pals are busy threatening the UK and France as well over their decisions to reject ChiCom hardware in their 5G networks.
"Huawei says U-turn on 5G decision would be a 'disservice' to Britain"
"This virus has not been around long enough for us to have evidence"
Sigh......no new strain of a virus has been around long enough the first time, Farmer. There new viruses expanding in the population right now that we have no idea are there. What, exactly, are we supposed to do differently about this particular one?
ARM: " This site used to encompass a plurality of views, but at some point it got invaded by ditto heads from Instapundit and has degenerated into a mono-culture, out of touch with much of the rest of the country."
The Russian Collusion/hoax dossier/Kavanaugh hoax rape charge/Ukraine phone call hoax crew would like to spend a bit of time lecturing others on being out of touch and being part of a degenerative mono-culture.
Let's all make sure to give this point of view all the respect it deserves........
Trump's critics are boring. Its same dull crap over and over and over again. We all know that if Trump did the opposite of what he's done, or is doing, his critics would find a way to attack that.
I'm also getting tired of self-appointed corona virus "experts" in the MSM attacking Trump. We don't have enough of this, we're doing too much of that, Trump is completely wrong, Trump should've done that.
Sorry, your Journalist degree of twitter blue check doesn't make you an expert on anything or smarter than trump. And that's goes double for Democrat partisan hacks.
BTW, according to the MSM, Pelosi and the R's are close to a deal. Its be nice to know what SPECIFICALLY has been the hold up, and what SPECIFICALLY is in the bill, but don't depend on the NYT or WaPo to tell us.
Tell me honestly, Farmer- where did your exhausting sense of hopelessness come from? It isn't just this one issue I have noted this persistent gloom- it permeates most of the topics you choose to address here. Given the way you seem to latch onto every potential bad outcome to any offerred option, it is wonder to me that you make it out of bed in the morning- and I write that as someone who is generally described, by the people who know me best, as a worrywart.
When did "most people disagree with you" become an insult? I thought everyone was clear on mob mentality and the madness of crowds and understood that to be in the majority means you're in the company of fools
It's going to be hard for the Pelosi press posse to successfully channel their inner Country Joe and The Fish this year. Country Joe famously sang "Waist Deep In The Big Muddy And The Big Fool Says Press On" about LBJ in the middle of the Viet Nam war.
The press posse's problem is that Trump is a much more nimble target than was old Jug Eared Lyndon. That said Pelosi has a much larger press posse than did Country Joe. We'll see how it all plays out over the summer and early fall.
@Yancey Ward:
Tell me honestly, Farmer- where did your exhausting sense of hopelessness come from?
Hopefulness is a highly overrated virtue. Expect the worst, and you'll never be disappointed. Whatever we end up learning about the virus over the long-term is completely independent of how I feel about it.
According to ARM and the rest of The Revisionists, Althouseblog began to go downhill when Trump voters refused to accept the "Truth" of Trump/Russia collusion, which was followed by the Trump voters at Althouseblog refusing to accept the next 4,592 hoaxes pushed by the dems/LLR's.
It's just unfortunate, in ARM's view, that there are so many people wandering around free that refuse to accept guidance and direction from their political betters who attempted to foist those hoaxes on the people.
This upsets ARM very greatly.
Sigh......no new strain of a virus has been around long enough the first time, Farmer. There new viruses expanding in the population right now that we have no idea are there. What, exactly, are we supposed to do differently about this particular one?
Your first point is irrelevant. There is a reason we know more about the immune response to influenza or herpes than this one. We have more data. The emergence of a novel virus that is highly contagious in humans and can lead to serious illness or death is not a frequent occurrence.
Non-disappointment is also over-rated, in my not so humble opinion.
But this virus isn't really all that novel, Farmer- we do know a lot about the Coronaviridae family- humans have been co-existing with them for millenia. In short, there is no reason at the moment to believe the immune response to this particular one will be atypical to other coronaviruses, or to even influenza virues in regards to immune response. Until shown otherwise, the best thing really is to expect the usual- to not do so is more likely to be counter-productive, all else being equal. If you don't follow that process, psychological paralysis is the outcome.
whitney said...
4/19/20, 11:41 AM
...They shut down road travel and domestic air travel out of Wuhan but did not shutdown international travel ...
Whitney,
Do you have a source for the claim that they did not shut down international travel from the Wuhan airport? A friend of mine said the same thing to me a few days ago. I did some searching on the internet and, as far as I can tell, the Wuhan Tianhe airport was closed at the same time as the trains and buses.
I did a lot of searches, but the one that was most useful was "wuhan tianhe airport closed"
DOI
@Yancey Ward:
But this virus isn't really all that novel, Farmer- we do know a lot about the Coronaviridae family- humans have been co-existing with them for millenia.
This virus is novel even if the family isn't. Coronaviruses that infect humans have historically only resulted in mild respiratory illness. The SARs-Cov and MERS-CoV viruses are only recently known.
In short, there is no reason at the moment to believe the immune response to this particular one will be atypical to other coronaviruses, or to even influenza virues in regards to immune response.
I don't believe it will be atypical or typical. I have no opinion on the matter, because there isn't enough data to be confident one way or the other. And given that the presentation of the virus in humans is already different than the presentation of other coronaviruses, that is at least a reason to suspect the immune response may be atypical.
So what does the rest of the world think about China’s culpability for this pandemic? Will they be too scared to say anything unless the US leads the way?
In other late breaking news, it now appears the "nazi" flag supposedly flown by Trump supporters at the protest rally in Michigan on April 15, 2020 which was actually displayed by a Bernie bro on Feb 29, 2020 in Boise Idaho for a Bernie rally.
ARM will be very very upset to see that once again, many of the Althouse Deplorables refused to accept at face value the lies the lefty/LLR media was pushing about this transparent frame-up job again.
I suspect that after the exposure of this latest set of lefty/LLR-lefty lies we Deplorables are in for a quite a few more lectures from ARM. Let's hope this next set of lectures from ARM contains far fewer clunky ill-formed Beijing talking points......though I suspect they will.
"when Trump voters refused to accept the "Truth" of Trump/Russia collusion, "
This virus was the best thing that could have happened to Comey and crew.
The majority of the country agrees with me.
Letter to the London Times protesting the awarding of an honorary degree to Derrida
"When the effort is made to penetrate [Derrida's writings], however, it becomes clear, to us at least, that, where coherent assertions are being made at all, these are either false or trivial."
http://ontology.buffalo.edu/smith/varia/Derrida_Letter.htm
Signed by most philosophers.
Despair is a self-fulfilling prophecy. I would not recommend it for anyone.
It is also a major characteristic of that state some people call hell. Again, not something that I would recommend for anyone.
Big Mike said...
If you're new to guns, period, I recomment this video, where Paul introduces you to types of guns and pros and cons of each, and also tells you something about himself (and his speech issues).
Holy shito! Paul Harrell meets the Althouse blog! Can the Eschaton be far behind?!
Everybody Dance Now!
Lucien: "So what does the rest of the world think about China’s culpability for this pandemic? Will they be too scared to say anything unless the US leads the way?"
This is a very good question and thus, a question ARM desperately seeks to avoid.
Yet, avoidance is no longer an option as there has been a Great Awakening to what the democrat allied ChiCom's have been up to and what the potential ramifications for continuing down this path might lead.
Even the lefty media is being forced, kicking and screaming, into talking about it:
"China’s bid to repair its coronavirus-hit image is backfiring in the West"
"As China in March became the first major country to recover from the coronavirus outbreak that spread from the central city of Wuhan, its officials kicked off another campaign: to heal its tattered international image.
.....
One month later, that campaign has yielded mixed results. In many cases, it has outright backfired.
In Britain, a parliamentary committee on foreign relations urged the government to fight a surge in Chinese disinformation. Officials in Germany and at least one U.S. state — Wisconsin — exposed quiet outreach attempts from Chinese officials hoping to persuade them to publicly praise China.
In Spain, the Czech Republic and the Netherlands, governments announced recalls of Chinese masks and testing kits after large batches were found to be defective, undercutting what China sought to portray as goodwill gestures. In Nigeria, the country’s professional medical association slammed a government decision to invite a team of Chinese doctors, going as far as claiming that they might carry the disease with them."
In other words, the ChiCom liars have been working hard behind the scenes to get public officials and others across the globe to push ChiCom disinformation......all of which ARM was doing here for absolutely free.
Heckuva job ARM.
Mark: "Despair is a self-fulfilling prophecy. I would not recommend it for anyone."
Farmer does not always despair.
Bernie's campaign seemed to cheer him up greatly, so much so that entertaining thoughts of voting him into office sort of became a Farmer thing.
An island of rhetorical contentment in an otherwise bleak outlook ocean.
“But this virus isn't really all that novel, Farmer- we do know a lot about the Coronaviridae family- humans have been co-existing with them for millenia. In short, there is no reason at the moment to believe the immune response to this particular one will be atypical to other coronaviruses, or to even influenza virues in regards to immune response.”
Aren’t you the one who predicted that Covid wouldn’t kill any more than 7,500 people in the US?
Yancey: "Sigh"
I feel your pain. Why bother?
Anyway, doesn't look like the virus is cooperating with the alarmists:
"Bjorn Lomborg Twitter:
The Oxford University Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine has updated its estimates of the fatality of corona:
- Case Fatality Rate is likely between 0.1-0.36%"
Evidence-based! What?
And I suspect they still have to adjust for actual life expectancy (to keep it simple) of the "fatalities."
The Great Decoupling would be the silver lining.
Trump should listen to the experts!!!
Trump listened to the experts!!!!
"he should be fired,"
Inga- A lot of predictions were made - even by your wonderful D-hacks in the press. And many of the predictions were wrong. Fauci was even wrong early on. Wuhan-Covid deaths are still a moving target.
I know one thing is for sure. If Obama were president, (and he gets a lot of info from the "news"), he would have watched all the incoming flights from China on an AP on his phone, while out on the golf course. He would have KNOWN! when the first virus carrying human arrived on that plane. Like a super-hero. I certainly know that to be true.
A very nice picture to start the thread. Thanks.
So the weather is cooperating here in the greater pugetopolis, and the veggie garden is taking shape for the coming growing season. Wife's new strawberry planter box constructed and in place with the strawberries transplanted and happy for the space. I got the garden boxes for the deck done with some cherry 100 plants.
All in all shaping up top be a decent day.
For all of you arguing, carry on - you do make the days interesting, if only to see how many poor souls are so trapped in their hate and depression.
"J. Farmer said...
"The immune response to different viruses varies widely. This virus has not been around long enough for us to have evidence for what the long-term human immune response will be."
Bad news: Immunity to coronaviruses in general "wanes within a year or two."
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK7782/
Good news: A vaccine seems likely within 12 to 18 months.
So cheer up!
Now that's creepy. Beautiful, but creepy.
We may become backyard box gardeners, or rather, we'd supply the latest low tech and the nice sunny space, and the neighbors who actually like getting their hands dirty will do most of the work. Sharecropping!
Narr
Talk about Southern
"J. Farmer said...
"And given that the presentation of the virus in humans is already different than the presentation of other coronaviruses, that is at least a reason to suspect the immune response may be atypical."
Precisely because it's atypical, it's likely to confer longer-lasting, not shorter-lasting immunity:
"Broadly speaking, the more severe the disease, the more resources the body will dedicate to memorizing that pathogen’s features, and the stronger and longer lasting the immune response will be . . . . "
https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/can-you-become-immune-sars-cov-2-180974532/
"China’s bid to repair its coronavirus-hit image is backfiring in the West"
Good God, Drago. Despite the title even that article was WaPo kissing China's ass. Sorry I turned off my ad blocker to read it.
@Drago:
Bernie's campaign seemed to cheer him up greatly, so much so that entertaining thoughts of voting him into office sort of became a Farmer thing.
This topic seems to be a perennial obsession of yours. Alas, presidential campaigns neither cheer me up nor get me down. Fortunately, the need to cheerlead politicians has never bee something I've possessed. Unfortunately, I can't say the same about others.
OM: "Good God, Drago. Despite the title even that article was WaPo kissing China's ass. Sorry I turned off my ad blocker to read it."
My point was that even the lefty pro-ChiCom media had to start addressing this.
Of course WaPo is a Beijing buddy, as are many in the UK and the EU and Africa and the US and elsewhere. What we are seeing however is that even those morons know that business as usual cannot continue and there will have to be changes.
So, that's sort of the entire point.
No different than XiNN dipping their delicate pro-dem toes into the Biden sexual assault allegations this weekend. Did they want to do it? No. Did they still suck up to Team Biden in how they did it? Yes.
But its the first of many unavoidable circumstances to come for these hacks.
@Openidname:
Precisely because it's atypical, it's likely to confer longer-lasting, not shorter-lasting immunity:
Also from that link: "But this trend is not a sure thing, and scientists don’t know yet whether SARS-CoV-2 will fall in line."
That is the entirety of my point. We don't know.
Farmer: "This topic seems to be a perennial obsession of yours."
"perennial"
Your positive reaction towards Bernie and what kind of a President he would make in your opinion (generally favorable I'd say) occurred during the campaign which for Bernie only ended within the last several weeks.
I was addressing your clear negativity towards pretty much everything that has gone on, is going on and likely will go on with your clear positivity you expressed quite recently regarding Bernie and his campaign.
I found that noteworthy.
For future reference, please provide a Shelf-life date beyond which things you've written should no longer be referenced for any reason and I'll try to work with you on that.
Farmer: "Fortunately, the need to cheerlead politicians has never bee something I've possessed."
When you make claims asserting you've never felt the need to cheerlead politicians, it would be wise to make sure you haven't just recently been cheerleading a politician as you were doing with Bernie.
I mean, just as a general rule or something.
@Sebastian:
"Bjorn Lomborg Twitter:
The Oxford University Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine has updated its estimates of the fatality of corona:
- Case Fatality Rate is likely between 0.1-0.36%"
Evidence-based! What?
First, Lomborg says "case fatality rate" when the paper was estimating infection fatality rate. Second, despite the fact that he says "is likely between 0.1-0.36%," the actual paper says, "Taking account of historical experience, trends in the data, increased number of infections in the population at largest, and potential impact of misclassification of deaths gives a presumed estimate for the COVID-19 IFR somewhere between 0.1% and 0.36%.*"
There are a whole lot of assumptions compacted in that sentence. And notice the asterisk? "*Demographic changes in the population could vary the IFR significantly. If younger populations are infected more the IFR will be lower. Comorbidities will have a significant impact to increase the IFR: the elderly and those with ≥ 3 comorbidities are at much higher risk."
The problem in the early stages of an outbreak is not a lack "evidence-based" decisions, it's a lack of "evidence."
@Drago:
When you make claims asserting you've never felt the need to cheerlead politicians, it would be wise to make sure you haven't just recently been cheerleading a politician as you were doing with Bernie.
Except I never did cheerlead Bernie. That conclusion, as best I can tell, is a consequence of your lack of comprehension.
I don't think WaPo even cared if I read it, what with the screen-robbing ads and the insistent pop-ups. It's just an ad delivery system. I wonder how many cookies they infected me with?
Your positive reaction towards Bernie and what kind of a President he would make in your opinion (generally favorable I'd say) occurred during the campaign which for Bernie only ended within the last several weeks.
Making an argument against claims that Bernie would turn the US into Venezuela or Cuba or the USSR is not a "positive reaction." Again, I don't have "feelings" about politician. I don't care about politicians. I only care about the decisions they make and the consequences of those decisions. I have no interest in having a beer with any of the lot.
p.s. While I accept that likability is an irrevocable component of electoral politics, it's never been an issue I've cared much about. Frankly, we shouldn't "like" our rulers. We should treat them with skepticism and suspicion.
@Northofthe101, one can always hope.
"But this virus isn't really all that novel, Farmer- we do know a lot about the Coronaviridae family- humans have been co-existing with them for millenia. In short, there is no reason at the moment to believe the immune response to this particular one will be atypical to other coronaviruses, or to even influenza virues in regards to immune response. Until shown otherwise, the best thing really is to expect the usual- to not do so is more likely to be counter-productive, all else being equal. If you don't follow that process, psychological paralysis is the outcome."
When you hear hoofbeats, don't immediately assume zebras?
Farmer: "Except I never did cheerlead Bernie. That conclusion, as best I can tell, is a consequence of your lack of comprehension."
That's not a bad fallback.
rcocean said...
BTW, according to the MSM, Pelosi and the R's are close to a deal. Its be nice to know what SPECIFICALLY has been the hold up, and what SPECIFICALLY is in the bill, but don't depend on the NYT or WaPo to tell us
I'm reading she wants a bunch of money for police, fire, teachers. None of which are businesses with payroll, all of which are public union member, all of which are getting paid, and in the case of teachers, getting paid not to work.
Trump will cave again, which is why she keeps doing this. Trump starting to piss me off.
Farmer
You are debating people who insist that only point estimates count. You are talking range estimates. You understand uncertainty matters for planning. They truly do not.
Ken B: "Farmer
You are debating people who insist that only point estimates count. You are talking range estimates. You understand uncertainty matters for planning."
I guess you missed this upthread:
In other news:
Bjorn Lomborg Twitter:
The Oxford University Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine has updated its estimates of the fatality of corona:
- Case Fatality Rate is likely between 0.1-0.36%
https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global-covid-19-case-fatality-rates/
And this will be on top of decreased annual deaths in the US during 2020 when compared with previous years.
4/19/20, 1:06 PM
But I get it.
That's a range estimate that kind of hurts your Permanent Depression recommendations, so it doesn't count.
Here's another range estimate Ken B had zero interest in discussing:
"U.N. warns economic downturn could kill hundreds of thousands of children in 2020"
"UNITED NATIONS (Reuters) - Hundreds of thousands of children could die this year due to the global economic downturn sparked by the coronavirus pandemic and tens of millions more could fall into extreme poverty as a result of the crisis, the United Nations warned on Thursday."
Yeah, Ken B couldn't be bothered with that one. He was far too busy accusing those concerned about economic consequences of being racist again....because he felt he was getting a tad low on the Virtue Signalling Gauge.
It’s cute Drago that in your response you show you don’t understand the uncertainty, despite Farmer pointing it out upthread.
@Drago:
But I get it.
That's a range estimate that kind of hurts your Permanent Depression recommendations, so it doesn't count.
Read the paper. There are quite a bit of caveats and qualifiers not captured by Lomborg's claim that "Case Fatality Rate is likely between 0.1-0.36%"
And a couple of other things: (1) fatality rate was and is not the only concern with the virus; (2) there is no reason to believe that there is a universal rate that can be applied across space and time, some places may experience a higher rate and some a lower rate depending on the confounding variables with; (3) As the paper itself states, "Estimating CFR and IFR in the early stage of outbreaks is subject to considerable uncertainties, the estimates are likely to change as more data emerges."
So here's an interesting question: How many tens of thousands of poor children would have to die from the severe economic conditions imposed by governments addressing the ChiCom Wuhan Lab virus before Ken B would start putting their interests above his needs for posturing advantage on blog sites?
Farmer: "Read the paper. There are quite a bit of caveats and qualifiers not captured by Lomborg's claim that "Case Fatality Rate is likely between 0.1-0.36%""
Got it.
That estimate range is crap and we should just throw it out.
Would it help if I got Ken B to say he thought it was okay?
Drago : I'm with you on this one. Farmer's endorsement Of Crazy Bernie, along with his inability to recognize how good a president Donald Trump has been, is massively wrong.
And I would say typical for him:
All too often too clever by half
Precious little wisdom
And this despite Farmers' superior erudition and fund of knowledge. I really think he should take a step back, post less, think more about the big picture, and stop the obsessive rote disputations with anybody who disagrees with him. His early posts are frequently quite good.
Ken B: "It’s cute Drago that in your response you show you don’t understand the uncertainty, despite Farmer pointing it out upthread."
That's an interesting gambit to try and throw off those questioning your hilarious "racist!" accusations.
@rightguy:
And this despite Farmers' superior erudition and fund of knowledge. I really think he should take a step back, post less, think more about the big picture, and stop the obsessive rote disputations with anybody who disagrees with him. His early posts are frequently quite good.
Thank you for the complimentary words and the advice. For what it's worth, my intentions have never changed. I say what I think and why I think it. And I am interested in knowing what others think and why they think it. Whether people agree or disagree with me has never really mattered much.
@Drago:
That estimate range is crap and we should just throw it out.
This is a good demonstration of where you and I diverge in our style. I don't believe the "estimate range is crap" or should be thrown out. My point is that in a highly fluid situation where there are big gaps in knowledge, we cannot draw big conclusions on any of the outstanding questions. The very paper that is references makes this same point.
Speaking "racist" accusations, and with Ken B around that sums up the totality of what remains of his "arguments", here's some interesting takes of the African nations assessment of ChiCom and Chinese people reaction to African citizens in China at the time of this outbreak:
"Complaints of racism mar China's global image"
"African nations are expressing concern about abusive and discriminatory treatment of Nigerians, Kenyans and other African citizens living and working in the southern Chinese city of Guangzhou.
Why it matters: This is the latest public relations disaster for China amid its widespread propaganda campaign to recast itself as a global health leader, rather than as the origin of a global pandemic."
"Is the China-Africa ‘all-weather’ relationship in the midst of a coronavirus storm?"
"The much touted “all-weather friendship” between China and Africa has been under strain recently, with Africans living in southern China complaining of mistreatment amid the coronavirus pandemic."
Sort of a real world racism problem, as opposed to Ken B's desperate tossing about of the charge because he has nothing else to fall back upon.
"I'm reading she wants a bunch of money for police, fire, teachers. None of which are businesses with payroll, all of which are public union member, all of which are getting paid, and in the case of teachers, getting paid not to work."
There's a small town here in Texas that has a budget surplus. The council voted to approve hazard pay for first responders.
Farmer: "My point is that in a highly fluid situation where there are big gaps in knowledge, we cannot draw big conclusions on any of the outstanding questions."
Nonsense.
Many here, whom you seem to align with, used "data" that was every bit as inconclusive with big gaps in knowledge to shove our economy into a depression with tens of millions out of work.
But whatever. Some data that is inconclusive with big gaps in knowledge will always be preferred and actionable over other data that is inconclusive with big gaps in knowledge.
Cliff, I mean Farmer, why don't you sit the next few plays? Take a knee and rest. You're tired.
"Thank you for the complimentary words and the advice. For what it's worth, my intentions have never changed. I say what I think and why I think it. And I am interested in knowing what others think and why they think it. Whether people agree or disagree with me has never really mattered much."
Totally honest, and reasonable position to take, Farmer.
My only modest and uninformed response is that I don't think you delve into the scientific literature too much -- except for the "soft" IQ stuff by Charles Murray.
Here was my simple question to daskol, which I pose to you: In California, should Governor Newsom reopen the economy, regardless of the imperfect information we all face?
IF yes, we are Pals.
IF no, I will have to defer a flood of choice comments....
Since the sun is shining, and Ioanndis's Santa Clara paper has been published, I'm in a very good mood:)
@Drago:
Many here, whom you seem to align with, used "data" that was every bit as inconclusive with big gaps in knowledge to shove our economy into a depression with tens of millions out of work.
I can be held to account for the things I say not for the things other people say, regardless of how much you believe I "seem to align with" them.
My reason for supporting a temporary period of mass social distancing was precisely because we lacked data. We did not have the capacity to mass test and isolate the sick and we had no way of knowing where spikes would occur. And what data we did have suggested a relatively long incubation period and the possibility of spread among asymptomatic and presymptomatic people. That left few available options for attempting to slow the spread.
@Roughcoat:
Cliff, I mean Farmer, why don't you sit the next few plays? Take a knee and rest. You're tired.
Nobody has to read anything I write, and nobody has to reply to anything I write. Yourself included.
Bay Area Guy: "Since the sun is shining, and Ioanndis's Santa Clara paper has been published, I'm in a very good mood:)"
I'm not surprised, given this from that report:
"These prevalence estimates represent a range between 48,000 and 81,000 people infected in Santa Clara County by early April, 50-85-fold more than the number of confirmed cases. Conclusions The population prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in Santa Clara County implies that the infection is much more widespread than indicated by the number of confirmed cases. Population prevalence estimates can now be used to calibrate epidemic and mortality projections."
I sure hope those researchers are ready for what will be coming their way as these results will certainly not be welcome in certain quarters as The Ability To Virtue Signal is inversely related to decreasing estimated mortality rates.
“Shooting advice on TV cop show, "Aim for the center of mass."”
“There may not be any mass at the center of mass. High-jumpers' center of mass goes under the bar, not over. That's how they jump so high.”
A distinction without a real difference. When you are trying to stop someone you aim at the center of their trunk. It doesn’t matter if they have wide shoulders and a narrow waist or massive hips and thighs. You aim for the center of the torso. Ok maybe compensate a little up or down, because of weight distribution. But don’t overthink it. Center of torso is good because it is a big target, which means that you are less likely, in a time of extreme stress, to completely miss, and there are a lot of important organs there too. Too high, and you just hit lungs. You have two of them, which means that someone can often survive for awhile if one is punctured. Too low, and you are likely to hit something that won’t incapacitate quickly enough. I was taught to aim essentially at the bottom of the sternum, or at least where it would normally be (for example, my partner has a short one, which is why she could never do much weight lifting). If you aim at limbs, you are liable to miss them, and if you don’t, it is still unlikely that you will incapacitate. And good head shots are hard because of the angles of the skull, and that the head tends to move around a lot more than the torso.
Bret Baier Investigates: "More And More Dots" Point To Wuhan Lab As Origin Of Coronavirus Pandemic ,
Have people even heard of the Wuhan Laboratory of Virology? It's not hard to find.
The WIV was founded in 1956 as the Wuhan Microbiology Laboratory under the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS). In 1961, it became the South China Institute of Microbiology, and in 1962 was renamed Wuhan Microbiology Institute. In 1970, it became the Microbiology Institute of Hubei Province when the Hubei Commission of Science and Technology took over the administration. In June 1978, it was returned to the CAS and renamed Wuhan Institute of Virology.
In 2015, the WIV's National Bio-safety Laboratory was completed at a cost of 300 million yuan ($44 million) in collaboration with the French government's CIRI lab, and was the first biosafety level 4 (BSL–4) laboratory to be built in mainland China.[2][14] The establishment of the laboratory was partially funded by the U.S. government[12] and took over a decade to complete from its conception in 2003.
It's pretty darn close to that dastardly wet batfood/seafood market those ChiComs have allowed to operate,too.
Just brainstormin' here. No grand conspiracies....
“ Nobody has to read anything I write,”
Nor think about it, evidently.
Farmer: "My reason for supporting a temporary period of mass social distancing was precisely because we lacked data."
Then perhaps the lack of data regarding potential worldwide deaths for our poorest societal members due to the economic shutdown requires us to open up our economies in order to "be safe" regarding those most at risk.
BC ARM @ 12:20 PM
The majority of the country agrees with me. Not with you. With me.
I don't know whats being argued about here and I don't care. The thing that got me was, lacking any idea what ARM sounds like, I can't read this with hearing Charles Emerson Winchester III. ARM I don't mean this as an insult it's just how that post comes across.
Carry On
@Bay Area Guy:
Here was my simple question to daskol, which I pose to you: In California, should Governor Newsom reopen the economy, regardless of the imperfect information we all face?
In all honesty, I have not followed the specifics of California's response and am not entirely sure what you refer to when you say "reopen the economy." In a general, I think a staggered easing of restrictions is probably a rational approach while people in higher risk groups continue to practice social distancing. Restrictions on large gatherings in confined spaces or requiring wearing face masks in crowded enclosed areas does not seem out of line to me.
Since the sun is shining, and Ioanndis's Santa Clara paper has been published, I'm in a very good mood:)
Beware of confirmation bias. Liking a paper because it reaches a preferred conclusion is not helpful. That study also has limitations because of the nature of how participants were chosen, demographic correlations, and the reliability of the antibody tests used. We do not know the exact reliability of the tests regarding their potential to give either false positive or false negative results. The results also don't really explain what we see in places like New York or Madrid. So even if the results were entirely accurate (a big if), we still don't know how applicable they are other across different groups.
Ken B: "Nor think about it, evidently."
Correct. The easiest course of action is to simply label them racists, right Ken?
BTW, did I miss it, or did Ken B address the potential global deaths of children in poverty and the impacts of massively increasing poverty globally due to the economic shutdowns?
I mean, Ken B, being the most virtuous of all (just ask him), would never purposely avoid that discussion? Would he?
@Farmer, are the most effective leaders the ones of whom people are most suspicious and skeptical?
The Santa Clara paper has been pretty effectively dismantled. Their selection criteria is wonky, their calculations were in error, and their effect falls within the range you could reasonably get from the false positives. Very weak evidence on its own terms, and a bad basis for extrapolation.
Farmer: "We do not know the exact reliability of the tests regarding their potential to give either false positive or false negative results."
That's right Farmer.
It's just an estimate with a range of possibilities.
I'm reminded of something someone wrote on this thread today....oh yes, here it is:
Ken B: "Farmer
You are debating people who insist that only point estimates count. You are talking range estimates. You understand uncertainty matters for planning. They truly do not."
4/19/20, 2:51 PM
Rather timely.
Kyjo asks “ @Farmer, are the most effective leaders the ones of whom people are most suspicious and skeptical?”
Ever see the things people said about Churchill, Lincoln, or Reagan before their moments arrived?
WI DHS covid stats
Ken B: "The Santa Clara paper has been pretty effectively dismantled. Their selection criteria is wonky, their calculations were in error, and their effect falls within the range you could reasonably get from the false positives. Very weak evidence on its own terms, and a bad basis for extrapolation."
The 2.2 million americans will die crowd checks in.
We'll just throw out the UN study as well.
Nothing will get in the way of Virtue Signalling requirements.
Nice artwork on that tree stump, it improves the stump IMO. None of that syrupy sweet nonsense such as was written on that stone the other day either. Which is nice.
We have begun our journey down the long and winding road to full re-opening. Many people I speak with are skeptical that we will ever return to what was normal behaviors pre-shutdown. I'm not so sure. It will take awhile but eventually people will forget all the panic. It will happen faster if the data show this was the equivalent of a bad flu season.
What a glorious day today in northeastern MA. Low 60s, sunshine. Many, many people out and about walking, cycling, biking, driving. Where I am there is no issue with maintaining a safe distance while doing these things.
@Misplaced Pants, a few cafe threads ago you mentioned purchasing an 870. Have you had a chance to try it on the range yet? Which of the approximately 3.5 million versions do you have? I like the short-barreled (18.5 inches) version with front and rear sights. It weighs 7 pounds 9 ounces empty, which is only a pound or so heavier than an AR or a Winchester '92.
If you're new to shotguns the following video might be of interest: bird shot for home defense. If you bought your 870 for home defense but live in a rural area you might not care about overpenetration, but if you live in an urban environment or a suburban-type development you might worry about missing a home intruder and blasting through your walls and into a neighbor's bedroom. Also, generally speaking, bird shot has less recoil than buck shot.
If you're new to guns, period, I recomment this video, where Paul introduces you to types of guns and pros and cons of each, and also tells you something about himself (and his speech issues).
Howdy and thank you for the excellent links! I have not yet been able to try it out on the range yet, as they are closed in our county. Hope to get out there as soon as we're able. It's an Express with the 28 inch barrel. Husband is looking for the 18 inch barrel to swap out for me and also the shorter stock. I'm 5'3" so it's a bit long for me out of the box. And agree re the bird shot-Mr. Pants explained as he was ordering shells that, God forbid, were I to use it inside the house with anything else I'd be taking out the neighbor's garage door also.
I don't have tons of personal experience with guns and none with shotguns so I do have a lot to learn. I've never had a gun of my own and have just shot others' under close supervision so it's definitely time for me to take responsibility for learning the firearm. I've received the ten commandments of gun safety briefing many times (every time someone took me shooting) but need to refresh that and learn to take it apart and put it back together myself. I do look forward to shooting it and I like how it feels in my hands. Husband already watched the videos you shared and said they are great and to thank you.
I think we might be getting close to Ken B lobbing out another racism accusation.
Nothing says "just going by the numbers" than making racism accusations.
Let's see what happens.....
@Drago:
Then perhaps the lack of data regarding potential worldwide deaths for our poorest societal members due to the economic shutdown requires us to open up our economies in order to "be safe" regarding those most at risk.
Quote anything I've said that you consider in opposition to this point of view.
"Paul Harrell"
Paul Harrell mentions in the wild! How pleasing!
Rhhardin, have you read Ellul? Any thoughts? I would be interested.
"The Santa Clara paper has been pretty effectively dismantled. Their selection criteria is wonky, their calculations were in error, and their effect falls within the range you could reasonably get from the false positives. Very weak evidence on its own terms, and a bad basis for extrapolation."
You certainly didn't dismantle it. You're incapable of doing that. So, show us the published paper that dismantled it. It was published today. So, I won't be waiting for you to produce it.
Valid criticism is always fair game. Yes, some geeks on the internet will try to critique it. But false claims of "dismantling" by Canadian concern trolls who want American lockdowns to continue, not so hot....
Ken B, of course. But how effective would Churchill have been if the large majority of the British maintained a stance of skepticism and suspicion toward him in the face of the Axis threat? Or how effective would Reagan have been facing down the Soviets if the large majority of Americans regarded him with skepticism and suspicion?
@Kyjo:
@Farmer, are the most effective leaders the ones of whom people are most suspicious and skeptical?
Well, "the most effective leaders" is a pretty amorphous phrase. Someone can be effective at accomplishing very bad things.
Think of all the millions of tax payer dollars wasted by government "workers" and their attempted coup against Trump. Now add to that full-salaried efforts of stay-at-home government "workers" getting paid to do essentially nothing. Which is worse?
Churchill, Lincoln, or Reagan
These are also three examples of historical figures who have received a huge amount of hagiography, which obscures a more nuanced assessment of their lives, the decisions they made, and the consequences of those decisions.
Farmer: "Quote anything I've said that you consider in opposition to this point of view."
Hmmm, interesting formulation.
You are in the never yes never said no camp on this.
Very safe indeed...and sets you up perfectly to have been "right all along" once we know how it all shakes out.
Well played.
@Drago:
You are in the never yes never said no camp on this.
If you care to wade through previous threads from over a month ago in which I give my opinion on such matters, feel free. But just to recap a couple of things I've written on this thread:
"My reason for supporting a temporary period of mass social distancing was..."
"In general, I think a staggered easing of restrictions is probably a rational approach while people in higher risk groups continue to practice social distancing. Restrictions on large gatherings in confined spaces or requiring wearing face masks in crowded enclosed areas does not seem out of line to me."
@Farmer, you’ve dodged my question rather than answer it. So, find a few leaders who effectively accomplished what are, in your view, good things. Then answer my question. I’ll add that I don’t expect that the most effective leaders are the ones of whom people have been the least skeptical and suspicious, to dispose of a potential strawman in advance.
Farmer:
"My reason for supporting a temporary period of mass social distancing was..."
"In general, I think a staggered easing of restrictions is probably a rational approach while people in higher risk groups continue to practice social distancing. Restrictions on large gatherings in confined spaces or requiring wearing face masks in crowded enclosed areas does not seem out of line to me."
Not exactly setting the world on fire with specificity there, are you?
"temporary" (not defined), "in general", "probably".....impressive.
I can almost hear Eisenhower giving orders for his troops to go when a small break in the weather appeared.....
Kyjo: "@Farmer, you’ve dodged my question rather than answer it."
A modus operandi is a modus operandi for a reason.
This hour-long interview with hedge fund manager Kyle Bass is a must watch, if only to feel his level of anger, and if he is this angry at the fix we have allowed ourselves to get into, imagine how many other top finance guys, business leaders, and members of Congress must feel the same way.
Keep hope alive. Keep despair alive. Keep panic alive.
Thanks, our eyes are opened.
@Drago:
Not exactly setting the world on fire with specificity there, are you?
Well, your demand that we "open up our economies" is not exactly an example of exhaustive specificity.
PHYS.ORG reports on a Drexel study tracking virus mutations for SARS02.
Our preliminary analysis, using publicly available data from across the world, is showing that the combination of subtypes of virus found in New York is most similar to those found in Austria, France and Central Europe, but not Italy.
also
And the subtype from Asia, that was detected here early in the pandemic has not spread very much, instead we are seeing a new subtype that only exists in America as the one most prevalent in Washington state and on the west coast."
Farmer: "Well, your demand that we "open up our economies" is not exactly an example of exhaustive specificity."
LOL
Fair enough.
Full open with protected subpopulations kept more isolated (this will depend on locale/scenario/capabilities) and as much social distancing as companies/organizations/individuals want to employ.
Your turn. (I won't hold my breath).
Yancy Ward said,
"In short, Chelsea, MA- a Boston suburb with 712 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 39 confirmed deaths- was found by serological tests on the street by Mass General Hospital to have an actual infection rate of 32 percent. The researchers tested 200 people and found 64 of them were positive for IgM and IgG antibodies to COVID-19. The suburb has around 40,000 residents, so you can do the math for yourself."
39 / (0.32 x 40,000) = 0.003
That would be the infection fatality rate for Chelsea, MA. In contrast an average flu epidemic has an infection fatality rate of 0.010, which is 3 times higher.
One might object they may have missed some of the Covid-19 deaths, which is of course possible. But by the same logic, they surely would have missed counting flu deaths since the standards for attributing death to the flu are much more rigorous than the standard applied to Covid-19. So in reality an average flu epidemic is likely to be a good deal more than 3 times more deadly than this epidemic.
The confounding fact is that the impact of this Wuhan Lab Bat Coronavirus epidemic seems to be very uneven, with some regions hit very hard while at the same time other areas, and in fact many other regions, are only marginally effected.
What a weird way to spend a beautiful day! Arguing here.
What a weird thing, this demand that we have to prove that we have the right to once again exercise our most basic civil rights.
The panic failed. The casualty rates are less than 10% of the model predictions. Not a single patient denied a bed or vent. The hospitals are having no difficulties. Outside of a few hot spots, the epidemic is having little affect.
The panic was another Get Trump gambit by the Democrats and their press allies. Stop falling for these panics. Stop allowing these panics to convince you to curtail the civil liberties and freedom of your fellow citizens.
The panic failed. Accept it. Everybody’s going to tell the government to go fuck itself soon and go back to their businesses and lives.
I just hope that people are learning to ignore these media induced panics. Stop giving these panics any credence. They are just political bullshit.
Farmer
I have posted several pretty detailed proposals for discussion. No discussion ensued. The closest thing to a cogent response was Ward insisting testing is not an effective tool.
@kyro:
@Farmer, you’ve dodged my question rather than answer it. So, find a few leaders who effectively accomplished what are, in your view, good things. Then answer my question. I’ll add that I don’t expect that the most effective leaders are the ones of whom people have been the least skeptical and suspicious, to dispose of a potential strawman in advance.
I did more than just dodge it. I rejected it completely.
But for the sake argument, let me just say that no, the most effective leaders are not the ones of whom people have been most suspicious and skeptical.
I'll grant you that. But that does not in any way refute my assertion that politicians should be treated "with skepticism and suspicion." That's not a far departure from an adage popularized by Ronald Reagan: "trust but verify." The presence of skepticism and suspicion is what makes the "verify" important.
@Ken B, the Santa Clara County antibody study has certainly been criticized for some very real limitations. But effectively dismantled? Like the Imperial College of London’s earlier models, which served as part of the justification for the most extreme peacetime measures we’ve ever seen in this county, were dashed to pieces on the rocky shore of reality? Do you think it’s likely that the overall prevalence of SARS2 infection in Santa Clara County is substantially less than the estimated 2.49%–4.16%?
you mentioned purchasing an 870
Remington 870?
I bought one with the naive thought that it would be a Swiss Army knife of shotguns. Fully loaded, It was much too heavy for clay pigeons. I couldn't understand the way the gun operated. I'm selling it for a simple double barrel.
@Drago:
Full open with protected subpopulations kept more isolated (this will depend on locale/scenario/capabilities) and as much social distancing as companies/organizations/individuals want to employ.
I don't have a problem with this generally. I support decisions being made at the local level as much as possible, since national directives don't make much sense. I also think we need to ramp up testing, quarantining, and contact tracing. Continued antibody testing of random groups where we are seeing clustering should be done too. I also think places will need to be prepared to potentially do another lockdown if a spike occurs.
As more and more studies emerge proving the mortality rate is more in line with what had been expected by the "racists" (I guess), I can guarantee that the rhetoric of the Virtue Signalling Brigade will need to become ever more dire and extreme.
We are already seeing the complete arsenal of the AGW rhetorical tactics being deployed to shut down studies and researchers that don't conform with political requirements.
It will be interesting to see who within the medical research community will have the ethics to stand up to this and who doesn't. Which is difficult given that the folks running this community are fully aligned with the WHO/ChiCom/GlobalBelievers.
By the time we are done, we'll have all the masks off across all boards, which should, in a free society, lead to some reform results.
Farmer: " I also think we need to ramp up testing, quarantining, and contact tracing. Continued antibody testing of random groups where we are seeing clustering should be done too. I also think places will need to be prepared to potentially do another lockdown if a spike occurs."
Everyone is okay with all of that.
What I'm not okay with is saying we need to stay hunkered down for months until everything is perfect.
We need to get moving economically now before we consign ourselves to a 3 to 5 year period of depression-like economic conditions.
Of course, I realize that even mentioning the economy will cause the Ken B's to perhaps label me a Quadruple Racist. I'm okay with that.
The confounding fact is that the impact of this Wuhan Lab Bat Coronavirus epidemic seems to be very uneven, with some regions hit very hard while at the same time other areas, and in fact many other regions, are only marginally effected.
What is also interesting is that different strains can now be identified genetically and they infect different areas.
"The types of SARS-CoV-2 viruses that we see in tests from Asia and Europe is different than the types we're seeing in America," said Gail Rosen, Ph.D., a professor in Drexel's College of Engineering, who led the development of the tool. "Identifying the variations allows us to see how the virus has changed as it has traveled from population to population. It can also show us the areas where social distancing has been successful at isolating COVID-19."
These appear to be mutations that may be related to the passages through different populations.
Whitney said,
"This just sunk in for me today. When this virus appeared in China they isolated Wuhan from the rest of the country. They shut down road travel and domestic air travel out of Wuhan but did not shutdown international travel and also didn't let the rest of the world know they had this virus. That is really shocking."
Yes, that is what happened. It has been bothering me for many weeks now.
Michael K,
Take a look at WI
WI DHS covid stats
Evers (his handlers) just extended SAH to May 26th
But we have golf now...
mandrel: "Whitney said,
"This just sunk in for me today. When this virus appeared in China they isolated Wuhan from the rest of the country. They shut down road travel and domestic air travel out of Wuhan but did not shutdown international travel and also didn't let the rest of the world know they had this virus. That is really shocking."
Yes, that is what happened. It has been bothering me for many weeks now"
True, but that also raises the question why the spread was not worse--or was it?
For example, question I've asked before, has any one tracked Chinese students getting back to the U.S. after Christmas, a percentage of whom must have been infected? Did they infect others on campus -- and if so, did the absence of any negative effects confirm what we are already seeing, namely, that WuFlu presents negligible risk to the young and healthy?
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