Althouse: At the Midday Café...

April 19, 2020

At the Midday Café...

0B876773-8C06-46FE-86AE-EB6DFA6984D5_1_201_a

... don't be blue.

503 comments:

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Ken B said...: Mandrewa
Yes the disparate impact is an important question. It just highlights how uncertain we are. Is it that few initial cases arrived? Lower viral load compared to subways? Earlier distancing? Different strain? Variable immunity? All open questions. If it’s a different strain or lower viral load those point to possible strategies for building immunity, so it would be nice to know.; 4/19/20, 4:35 PM
narciso said...: all right, I'm back from the walk, what's new at the argument clinic,; 4/19/20, 4:36 PM
Kyjo said...: @Farmer, the way you replied, though it wasn’t really an answer, implied an interest in dialogue. And your answer now indicates that you haven’t, after all, rejected my question completely. I was seeking better to understand the practical implications of your position, and I think I have gained some understanding from this exchange. I don’t think I fundamentally disagree with you.; 4/19/20, 4:36 PM
Ken B said...: Kyjo
I picked three leaders I knew Farmer wasn’t a big fan of 😉; 4/19/20, 4:38 PM
Kyjo said...: @Ken B, it makes no difference to question I was asking.; 4/19/20, 4:39 PM
Andy said...: BAG @ 3:46PM

<a href="https://medium.com/@balajis/peer-review-of-covid-19-antibody-seroprevalence-in-santa-clara-county-california-1f6382258c25>This</a> is what I think Ken B. is referring to. While the author does raise some concerns, some of them are mutually exclusive in a way. So for example his first objection is that it is possible that every positive result is a false one. Later another objection the population sample was enriched so that you would be more likely to get positives skewing the results. Taken on their own ok but you can't hold both objections as being likely at the same time.; 4/19/20, 4:40 PM
J. Farmer said...: @Kyjo:

@Farmer, the way you replied, though it wasn’t really an answer, implied an interest in dialogue. And your answer now indicates that you haven’t, after all, rejected my question completely. I was seeking better to understand the practical implications of your position, and I think I have gained some understanding from this exchange. I don’t think I fundamentally disagree with you.

My apologies. I thought it was rhetorical question meant to advance opposition to my point. I have a general preference for being disagreed with, and it occasionally leads me to jump to conclusions.; 4/19/20, 4:41 PM
Inga said...: “Take a look at WI
WI DHS covid stats

Evers (his handlers) just extended SAH to May 26th
But we have golf now...”

https://wkow.com/2020/04/19/over-4000-confirmed-covid-19-cases-in-wisconsin-205-killed-2-2/

“MADISON (WKOW) -- The number of confirmed COVID-19 cases rose again in Wisconsin Sunday.

The number of positive tests for the disease is 4,346, this is a 147 increase from yesterday.

The number of Wisconsinites killed by the illness so far is 220. Fatalities rose by nine since Saturday.

More than 45,000 test results have come back negative since the outbreak began.

Around 27 percent of those who have tested positive for COVID-19 have been hospitalized, which is roughly 1,190 people.

The Department of Health Services posted the new statistics on its website. Health officials update the figures each day around 2 p.m.“; 4/19/20, 4:45 PM
Drago said...: I found it quite interesting that the ChiComs made specific entreaties to the dems in WI to talk up how great China is, according to multiple reports, one of which I linked to earlier in this thread.

I wonder why it was the ChiCom's just instinctively knew that they might have success in getting democrat politicians in WI to sing China's praises.

Very telling.; 4/19/20, 4:52 PM
Mark said...: Evers (his handlers) just extended SAH to May 26th

It would seem that some places will not be allowed to "flatten the curve" or "go over the hump" or recognize any decline. There is no shortage of reasons for some to keep extending and extending the shut down. For many, the only reason they need is spite.; 4/19/20, 4:52 PM
Mark said...: Some places are determined to reject model after model after model until they find the worst most pessimistic one possible.; 4/19/20, 4:53 PM
Andy said...: Express

Germany has sparked outrage in China after a major newspaper put together a £130bn invoice that Beijing "owes" Berlin following the impact of the coronavirus pandemic. Germany has followed France, the UK and the US in directing its coronavirus anger at China, where the virus originated. Recent attacks come amid findings that Beijing appeared to cover up the true scale of the crisis, as the source of the outbreak remains a mystery.; 4/19/20, 4:54 PM
walter said...: Almost 6 million people in WI. Look at the "curve" (see light blue lines) in DHS data, Inga. Not a "news" story.
More here where MK lives:
https://chicagoboyz.net/archives/62459.html
A Fresh Perspective on the Covid-19 Numbers” – Part 2; 4/19/20, 4:54 PM
Fritz said...: Bay Area Guy said...
Bret Baier Investigates: "More And More Dots" Point To Wuhan Lab As Origin Of Coronavirus Pandemic ,

Have people even heard of the Wuhan Laboratory of Virology? It's not hard to find.

The WIV was founded in 1956 as the Wuhan Microbiology Laboratory under the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS). In 1961, it became the South China Institute of Microbiology, and in 1962 was renamed Wuhan Microbiology Institute. In 1970, it became the Microbiology Institute of Hubei Province when the Hubei Commission of Science and Technology took over the administration. In June 1978, it was returned to the CAS and renamed Wuhan Institute of Virology.

In 2015, the WIV's National Bio-safety Laboratory was completed at a cost of 300 million yuan ($44 million) in collaboration with the French government's CIRI lab, and was the first biosafety level 4 (BSL–4) laboratory to be built in mainland China.[2][14] The establishment of the laboratory was partially funded by the U.S. government[12] and took over a decade to complete from its conception in 2003.

It's pretty darn close to that dastardly wet batfood/seafood market those ChiComs have allowed to operate,too.

Imagine the conspiracy theories that would come if a world killing zombie apocalypse broke out in Frederick Maryland, home of Fort Dietrick.; 4/19/20, 4:55 PM
Original Mike said...: "The number of confirmed COVID-19 cases rose again in Wisconsin Sunday."

Well, it's never going to go down.; 4/19/20, 4:55 PM
Kyjo said...: @Farmer, my question wasn’t meant as rhetorical, but it was meant to be pointed—the way you expressed your position seemed too strong. In any case, I think I can understand your contrarian impulse. Whereas a good number of Althouse’s commenters are contrarian against certain controlling narratives, you’re contrarian even against contrarian narratives. At least, that’s what it seems to me.; 4/19/20, 4:56 PM
gilbar said...: J Farmer said I have a general preference for being disagreed with

This is the thing i don't understand; people go and argue with Farmer,
i can only assume thinking they'll piss him off; they don't seem to see that he LIKES being dissed

That's why I try to ALWAYS be agreeable in my comments about/towards Farmer...
I assume that THAT (probably) irks him :); 4/19/20, 4:56 PM
J. Farmer said...: @Whitney:

When this virus appeared in China they isolated Wuhan from the rest of the country. They shut down road travel and domestic air travel out of Wuhan but did not shutdown international travel and also didn't let the rest of the world know they had this virus.

The Wuhan locked down began January 23rd, well after the existence of the virus was well known.

Ironically, given my long criticism of the US-China relationship, as I have thought about this issue more, I have backed away somewhat from the "blame China" narrative. Based on the information we have and granting we may learn more later, it's hard to make a realistic case for how China could have contained this. To do so, they would had to have taken the most aggressive actions with the lead amount of risk-aversion. I am not sure how we can reasonably have expected them to do this given how every other country has responded with more time and more information to make decisions.

The only country that acted early and aggressive to contain the virus was Taiwan. Part of this seems to be a result of systems they put in place after the SARS outbreak there in 2003.; 4/19/20, 4:57 PM
Ken B said...: Andy
That and three other discussions I have seen online. For one thing, they miscalculated a number.

But of course both of Balaji's objections can apply at the same time. Say you are testing for bad drivers. You draw your sample disproportionately from people who lost their licence, and your test calls someone a bad driver if they play the radio loudly when driving. You can have both too many legitimate bad drivers from the skewed sample and some radio false positives, both inflating your final count.; 4/19/20, 4:58 PM
Ken B said...: Farmer
They let 5mm fly from Wuhan after they knew the truth and the problem. They actively suppressed warnings and the truth. They ignored warnings about the lab from which it might have escaped. The CCP is absolutely to blame. (Unless you are Dragoachillesshoutingthomas when you think the virus is milder than the flu, and so they aren’t guilty of much at all. ); 4/19/20, 5:05 PM
J. Farmer said...: @Kyjo:

@Farmer, my question wasn’t meant as rhetorical, but it was meant to be pointed—the way you expressed your position seemed too strong. In any case, I think I can understand your contrarian impulse. Whereas a good number of Althouse’s commenters are contrarian against certain controlling narratives, you’re contrarian even against contrarian narratives. At least, that’s what it seems to me.

That's probably a fair description. My entire professional life has basically been investigative. Go out and gather as much information as possible from as many sources, interview the relevant parties, digest it, and distill it and my opinion about it into a written report. It's a process I enjoy and have some facility for.

Also, I am a gay atheist white nationalists who cast his first presidential vote for Pat Buchanan. So I'm obviously comfortable with not fitting into any prevailing narratives ;); 4/19/20, 5:05 PM
walter said...: "They ignored warnings"
iirc, there was some disappearing.; 4/19/20, 5:06 PM
Openidname said...: "Sebastian said...

"Has any one tracked Chinese students getting back to the U.S. after Christmas, a percentage of whom must have been infected? Did they infect others on campus?"

Beware. Professor Bainbridge of UCLA has been sent to reeducation camp just for asking this question. He tweeted that he was not feeling well earlier in the year and he wondered if he could have caught the disease from some Chinese student just back from visiting China for the holidays. And this was the result:

https://www.professorbainbridge.com/professorbainbridgecom/2020/04/ucla-dean-mnookins-response.html; 4/19/20, 5:07 PM
Original Mike said...: "i can only assume thinking they'll piss him off; they don't seem to see that he LIKES being dissed"

Like ARM.; 4/19/20, 5:08 PM
Ken B said...: Walter
Fair point. It was much worse than ignoring in some instances.; 4/19/20, 5:08 PM
J. Farmer said...: @Ken B:

They let 5mm fly from Wuhan after they knew the truth and the problem. They actively suppressed warnings and the truth. They ignored warnings about the lab from which it might have escaped. The CCP is absolutely to blame. (Unless you are Dragoachillesshoutingthomas when you think the virus is milder than the flu, and so they aren’t guilty of much at all. )

I don't doubt that mistakes were made at any number of points, and I think systemic problems with how China is organized contribute to this. But it it is easy to say now that they should have locked down Wuhan earlier. It is also not clear what information was available at what levels of authority and when it was available. Look at the difficulty we are having reaching consensus about the nature of the virus and the threat it poses, and we have had much more time and a lot more data.; 4/19/20, 5:13 PM
Inga said...: https://www.greenbaypressgazette.com/story/news/2020/04/17/brown-county-coronavirus-spike-cdc-wisconsin-investigate-cases/5156523002/

“GREEN BAY - Investigators from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention are expected to arrive in Brown County this weekend to look into a recent explosion in COVID-19 cases in the Green Bay area.

The number of cases has increased more than fourfold in just 10 days.

The Wisconsin Department of Emergency Management will join the CDC in sending people to Brown County to help identify the source or sources of recent coronavirus cases, county officials said.

Other northeastern Wisconsin county health departments may also participate.

County officials requested help after becoming worried earlier this week about the magnitude of the spread of the virus. Besides the speed at which it was spreading, they fear the virus is being transported to nearby counties by people who come into Brown County to work or conduct business, then return home.

Brown County's increase in confirmed cases is the most pronounced in the state since the spring election. The state Department of Health Services reported the county had seen 41 positive tests by April 7. By April 17, that number had more than quadrupled, to 180.

That's a 340% increase. In that period, statewide totals increased by 57%.; 4/19/20, 5:16 PM
AtmoGuy said...: Evers (his handlers) just extended SAH to May 26th
But we have golf now...

If we can have golf, why can't we have tennis?; 4/19/20, 5:18 PM
Original Mike said...: "They let 5mm fly from Wuhan after they knew the truth and the problem. They actively suppressed warnings and the truth. They ignored warnings about the lab from which it might have escaped."

I'd like to know more about this. Too bad we don't have a responsible media.; 4/19/20, 5:25 PM
Drago said...: Ken B: "(Unless you are Dragoachillesshoutingthomas when you think the virus is milder than the flu, and so they aren’t guilty of much at all. )"

Once you jump down the lying hole, its difficult to come back.

Case in point: Ken B.

This is why I expect Ken B to start tripling and quadrupling down on hoax racism charges when the fantastical and insane numbers of dead he predicted do not materialize.

It's pretty clear now that Birkel had Ken B pegged early on.; 4/19/20, 5:26 PM
Ken B said...: Farmer
I wasn’t aware I said they should have locked down Wuhan earlier. Can you find a quote?
I would say that question is one we cannot really answer yet, since we don’t know what they really knew yet. If it came from a lab leak then yes we can say that. If it was spontaneous maybe we cannot. But I listed more than enough crimes.; 4/19/20, 5:28 PM
Inga said...: The Green Bay area in Wisconsin is very conservative/ red/ Republican. I wonder if they were lackadaisical about social distancing.

The county's concerns about the increase, Shove said, include the role "a non-governmental organization with multiple locations countywide" might be playing in the spread of the virus. He said the county suspects a connection between "a cluster of cases" and a location where "operations are not accessible to the public.

Shove would not identify the organization, or divulge any specific locations that concern health officials.”

https://www.greenbaypressgazette.com/story/news/2020/04/17/brown-county-coronavirus-spike-cdc-wisconsin-investigate-cases/5156523002/; 4/19/20, 5:29 PM
RMc said...: Hopefulness is a highly overrated virtue. Expect the worst, and you'll never be disappointed.

Sure you can be disappointed, since sometimes things are even worse than you thought they were.

But at least you can look at the mountain of corpses and say, "This will make Orange Man look bad! Yea...!"; 4/19/20, 5:29 PM
Ken B said...: Drago
I didn’t predict any number dead, except negatively, that Ward's 7500 for the whole course of the epidemic was low. And of course I was right.

Michael K did make a prediction. He said the final total would be around 20k. I think we can call that one wrong too.; 4/19/20, 5:32 PM
MadisonMan said...: This weekend had specTACular days. Sure it was a little windy yesterday. But the combination of yesterday and today: unbeatable (sorry to you in Milwaukee for today's lake breeze though). Dare I hope for no more frost in the back yard? Forecast is promising. Seedlings coming up.

This is the best time of year.; 4/19/20, 5:32 PM
stevew said...: The thread is being pulled and the tapestry is unraveling.

COVID-19 Model Uses Flawed Uses Flawed Methods and Shouldn't Guide Policy; 4/19/20, 5:34 PM
iowan2 said...: There are quite a bit of caveats and qualifiers not captured by Lomborg's claim that "Case Fatality Rate is likely between 0.1-0.36%"

Isn't that the essence of modeling that pushed the US into a recession. Caveats, and Qualifiers?
I had a field agronomist that was constantly delaying a decision for better information. Often their were at the most 3 options, and time being a qualifier, waiting long enough only left one option. Not the best. Decisions need to be made, move forward, adjust as you go. The only danger is leaving yourself open to criticism by experts that point out not enough data existed to make the decision, when the decision was made. But that's why experts aren't leaders.; 4/19/20, 5:35 PM
J. Farmer said...: @Ken B:

Farmer
I wasn’t aware I said they should have locked down Wuhan earlier. Can you find a quote?

"They let 5mm fly from Wuhan after they knew the truth and the problem."; 4/19/20, 5:35 PM
Howard said...: Jane you ignorant slut; 4/19/20, 5:35 PM
Howard said...: I'm not sayin' we won't get our hair mussed.; 4/19/20, 5:37 PM
Inga said...: “...Ward's 7500 for the whole course of the epidemic was low. And of course I was right.

Michael K did make a prediction. He said the final total would be around 20k. I think we can call that one wrong too.’”

Yes, we can.; 4/19/20, 5:38 PM
Original Mike said...: "Forecast is promising."

Yesterday, they had rain for days, starting Tuesday. Now they don't.
Yesterday, they predicted high for Tuesday of 65. Now it's 48.

Grrrrr…; 4/19/20, 5:39 PM
Ingachuck'stoothlessARM said...: Lawyers, Guns & Money

when this all settles down, will it be "affidavit swirling time"?

Rights violations, medical malpractice suits galore??; 4/19/20, 5:39 PM
Drago said...: Ken B: "Drago
I didn’t predict any number dead, except negatively, that Ward's 7500 for the whole course of the epidemic was low. And of course I was right."

Weak.

Your vision was apocalyptic. Global shutdown required for as long as it takes. All other considerations secondary. Hundreds of thousands of children consigned to death over the global shutdown? Disparage the analysis. Hundreds of millions plunged into desperate poverty due to the global shutdown? Doesn't even merit a response.

I don't blame you for hedging now.; 4/19/20, 5:39 PM
J. Farmer said...: @iowan2:

Isn't that the essence of modeling that pushed the US into a recession. Caveats, and Qualifiers?

Basically yes, though modeling is fundamentally different than the study Lomborg cited. But there is a reason for the aphorism "all models are wrong."

Decisions need to be made, move forward, adjust as you go. The only danger is leaving yourself open to criticism by experts that point out not enough data existed to make the decision, when the decision was made. But that's why experts aren't leaders.

I definitely agree with the first sentence. But criticism can come from both sides. One of the more prominent critics of the response has been John Ioannidis, who complained that "we are making decisions without reliable data." My response is that we did not have reliable data on which to base any decision.; 4/19/20, 5:40 PM
Original Mike said...: Maybe we should have the Covid modelers and the weather forecasters swap places. Why not?; 4/19/20, 5:41 PM
Inga said...: “Your vision was apocalyptic.”

Oh baloney. Ken B was very careful in his citations and he made no predictions.; 4/19/20, 5:41 PM
J. Farmer said...: As long as we're piling on people for getting predictions wrong, let me say that my favorite was Achilles' assertion that the whole thing would be "memory holed by April."; 4/19/20, 5:42 PM
Drago said...: Inga the Russian Collusion Truther: "Oh baloney. Ken B was very careful in his citations and he made no predictions."

LOL

His vision was apocalyptic. Global shutdown required for as long as it takes. All other considerations secondary. Hundreds of thousands of children consigned to death over the global shutdown? Disparage the analysis. Hundreds of millions plunged into desperate poverty due to the global shutdown? Doesn't even merit a response.; 4/19/20, 5:42 PM
J. Farmer said...: Maybe we should have the Covid modelers and the weather forecasters swap places. Why not?

Either are preferable to economists.; 4/19/20, 5:43 PM
Drago said...: I'll grant this much: Ken B was as careful in his predictions as Inga was with her Russia Collusion accusations.

Every bit as careful.; 4/19/20, 5:44 PM
Inga said...: “As long as we're piling on people for getting predictions wrong, let me say that my favorite was Achilles' assertion that the whole thing would be "memory holed by April."

Yeah, but that was Achilles. I wouldn’t expect anything less from him.; 4/19/20, 5:44 PM
Jon Ericson said...: Marvin, Pee Wee, Maude and Bluto.
The gang's all here.; 4/19/20, 5:44 PM
narciso said...: they are about as useful as hurricane forecasters,; 4/19/20, 5:45 PM
Drago said...: According to Inga and Ken B, there are no negative economic considerations worth a second thought.

None at all.

You know how many people in India are not social distancing? About a billion.; 4/19/20, 5:48 PM
Inga said...: “According to Inga and Ken B, there are no negative economic considerations worth a second thought.”

Drago always resorts to outright lying when he’s scrambling for a foothold.; 4/19/20, 5:49 PM
Ken B said...: Farmer
If that's the basis of your statement you are quite wrong. Those flights were for the Jan 25 holiday, and there certainly should have been a prohibition on flights out by then. The only arguable question is if they could reasonably have locked down in December or very early January.; 4/19/20, 5:49 PM
Shouting Thomas said...: I have no idea why you guys are wasting your time on this.

The pandemic is a bust. Only a tiny fraction of infections lead to fatalities.

You’re arguing over absolutely nothing. Why can’t you stop yourselves?

Our problem is you. The Ingas, especially, because her motives are pure evil, but the J. Farmers, too, because he’s making a mountain out of a molehill out of boredom. There there are idiots like ARM, who’s bonkers with TDS.

Your idiot arguing is convincing you that there’s some reason to infringe on the rights of fellow citizens. You don’t have that right. You never did. No matter how much energy you expend convincing yourself you should, our constitution doesn’t allow you to infringe the rights of your fellow citizens.

It’s over guys. Shut up about this. The panic is a Get Trump gambit. Stop feeding the panic. The way to do that is to STFU. Do it now!

I feel like a daddy talking to fucking stupid, misbehaving kids. Find something else to do. Stop doing this. Stop doing this now.

I won’t waste any more breathe on your stupid fuckers. I’ve got better things to do. What you’re doing here is destructive, stupid and evil. Shut up and stop trying to fabricate a reasons to fuck with your fellow citizens.; 4/19/20, 5:49 PM
narciso said...: they don't mind a depression, if it suppressed further growth,; 4/19/20, 5:51 PM
Howard said...: Someone needs a hug; 4/19/20, 5:51 PM
Ken B said...: Inga observes “ Drago always resorts to outright lying when he’s scrambling for a foothold.”

Indeed. Most of the denialists do. I have not seen anyone slight the economic costs for example, but they pretend it happens, over and over. And the only person I have seen hope for economic disaster is Birkel, a denialist.; 4/19/20, 5:51 PM
J. Farmer said...: @Ken B:

If that's the basis of your statement you are quite wrong. Those flights were for the Jan 25 holiday, and there certainly should have been a prohibition on flights out by then

Wuhan Tianhe International Airport was closed January 23rd.; 4/19/20, 5:52 PM
Inga said...: “The pandemic is a bust.”

And then you have Shouting Thomas, he’s in a class all of his own.; 4/19/20, 5:53 PM
J. Farmer said...: @narciso:

they are about as useful as hurricane forecasters,

"It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future."; 4/19/20, 5:54 PM
Original Mike said...: "Either are preferable to economists."

The economists should be shot.; 4/19/20, 5:54 PM
Inga said...: “Someone needs a hug”

Don’t look at me, I’m not hugging Cooty Thomas.; 4/19/20, 5:54 PM
Meade said...: Original Mike said...
"Forecast is promising."

Yesterday, they had rain for days, starting Tuesday. Now they don't.
Yesterday, they predicted high for Tuesday of 65. Now it's 48.

Grrrrr…
----------

But it's April. By Tuesday it'll be none of those. Or more likely — all of them.; 4/19/20, 5:54 PM
Kyjo said...: @Farmer, I’m also homosexual. I’m not an atheist, and not exactly agnostic, though I’m not a “believer” any more either. I grew up as an evangelical Christian of the tongues-speaking variety in California, which is in some ways like being an atheist in the Bible Belt. A subsequent turn toward conservative Presbyterianism for many years made me even more an anomaly. And, while my closest friends have always been a racially diverse group, I was a white nationalist (I think it’s no longer feasible in the US, hence “was,” though I remain sympathetic to ethnonationalism generally). So I’m familiar with not fitting into prevailing narratives, though you perhaps enjoy it more than I. :); 4/19/20, 5:56 PM
Drago said...: Inga: "Drago always resorts to outright lying when he’s scrambling for a foothold."

Russia collusion
Hoax dossier
Kavanaugh rape charges
Ukraine phone call hoax
Emoluments
Trump is Putins asset
Trump laundered russian cash

Some of Inga's Greatest Hits.

Not a surprise she and Ken B are best buds.; 4/19/20, 6:00 PM
mandrewa said...: Sebastian said,

"For example, question I've asked before, has any one tracked Chinese students getting back to the U.S. after Christmas, a percentage of whom must have been infected?"

Chinese New Year, or from January 25th to February 4th, is a far bigger holiday in China and should have involved far more infected travelers. If you'll recall it was shortly after the Chinese New Year that it became impossible to deny that something was going on in Wuhan.

We don't know when the epidemic started in other places, but we know for certain that it had become quite large in Wuhan by the point, and as it happens this was the time when an awful lot of people from the rest of the world were going to and from Wuhan.; 4/19/20, 6:06 PM
Bay Area Guy said...: @ST,

"It’s over guys. Shut up about this. The panic is a Get Trump gambit. Stop feeding the panic. The way to do that is to STFU. Do it now!"

I have taken your sage advice. I've been sunbathing on my back deck, drinking light rum, strumming my guitar (amateur status), and enjoying the late Sunday afternoon. It's 75 degrees in NorCal and the sky is blue.

I just worry a lot about my fellow citizens/friends who lost their jobs, due to the Lockdown. That's all. It gets my dander up.

Carry on, Comrades.; 4/19/20, 6:07 PM
J. Farmer said...: @Kyjo:

So I’m familiar with not fitting into prevailing narratives, though you perhaps enjoy it more than I. :)

Our similarities are interesting. Thanks for sharing. I should also mention that given my political preferences, I have never fit well into either of the prevailing political parties/ideologies. Also, areas that I am interested like foreign policy and trade, has a lot of overlap between the right and the left, so I have never found partisanship an especially useful lens.; 4/19/20, 6:08 PM
Inga said...: “Not a surprise she and Ken B are best buds.”

I guess it’s a surprise to Drago that people whose politics differ can agree in non political areas. Covid 19 is not a political ideology.; 4/19/20, 6:09 PM
Drago said...: As we emerge from this unnecessary forced economic depression and set about repairing the economic damage, it will be interesting to see what the next wave of democrat/LLR sham-peachment lies get pushed and parroted by Inga and her pals.

We have already seen democrats floating accusations of murder so we can expect no limit to the extremism.; 4/19/20, 6:09 PM
Drago said...: Inga: "I guess it’s a surprise to Drago that people whose politics differ can agree in non political areas. Covid 19 is not a political ideology."

That's not what the ChiCom's/WHO and your dems believe, as they have proven from Day 1 of this.; 4/19/20, 6:10 PM
Inga said...: “That's not what the ChiCom's/WHO and your dems believe, as they have proven from Day 1 of this.”

LIBERATE Drago! He needs to be freed of his toxic partisanship.; 4/19/20, 6:12 PM
Drago said...: Inga: "LIBERATE Drago! He needs to be freed of his toxic partisanship"

Shorter Inga: Drago keeps noticing what my dems are up to!; 4/19/20, 6:13 PM
Drago said...: If I recall, a few years back Inga questioned the patriotism of those who refused to buy into her collusion hoax. She claimed Trump being a russian asset should be beyond partisanship.

She lied then. She's lying now. She'll be lying tomorrow.; 4/19/20, 6:14 PM
Inga said...: Drago is so predictable. Wouldn’t it be fun to hear him express opinions that aren’t spoken from underneath a red face mask?; 4/19/20, 6:16 PM
Drago said...: Inga: "Drago is so predictable."

Russia collusion
Hoax dossier
Kavanaugh rape charges
Ukraine phone call hoax
Emoluments
Trump is Putins asset
Trump laundered russian cash

Some of Inga's Greatest Hits.

How much more predictable can it get?; 4/19/20, 6:17 PM
Dear corrupt left, go F yourselves said...: Russia Russia Inga lectures us on predictability.

*Maddow fish smack*; 4/19/20, 6:19 PM
rightguy said...: ST :"The pandemic is a bust. Only a tiny fraction of infections lead to fatalities.

You’re arguing over absolutely nothing. Why can’t you stop yourselves?"

Amen, bro !

I will now return to reading some Faulkner, listening to Bruckner, and playing some piano. Later, a pleasant walk, in the spring desert air, up the hill at dusk. I imagine Farmer will still be compulsively disputating after all that.; 4/19/20, 6:20 PM
Drago said...: BleachBit-and-Hammers: "Russia Russia Inga lectures us on predictability."

She thinks we've already forgotten her lies about Trump being responsible for the ventilator and testing shortages/delays.

The reports that have come out in the last month demonstrate conclusively how evil those lies were.

New York City/State refusing to stock up as per their own plans, failing to maintain the few ventilators they had, auctioning off most of the ventilators.

The CDC, post 2009, devising a high risk, one chance to get it right testing protocol which the CDC then produced in their own lab instead of a qualified manufacturing center, causing a 4 to 6 week delay in getting test kits out in the numbers needed.

As we speak, the entire democrat party/media at all levels is out pushing these charges against Trump, but don't you dare push back.

That would be "partisan".; 4/19/20, 6:24 PM
Maillard Reactionary said...: Fernandistein @11:59 AM: I know the version by Luther Allison. Not to be missed, if you love the blues. He was greatness.

Bay Area Guy @6:07 PM: Well lucky you with the 75F. But I agree. We had a sunny day here for once in the DPRNJ and I planted a number of perennials. Later while preparing dinner, with the slider open to the nice fresh air and sunshine, I enjoyed a couple of gin and tonics.

Next week, a little civil disobedience is envisioned with my camera in a part of the woods that I'm fairly sure that the Statz Polizei rarely visit.

I refuse to take this crap seriously. Every day is a gift, always has been true, and it still is.

Cheers!; 4/19/20, 6:27 PM
mandrewa said...: J. Farmer said,

"But it is easy to say now that they should have locked down Wuhan earlier. It is also not clear what information was available at what levels of authority and when it was available."

I'm puzzled by this because that is not what is being said here. The persons you are responding to, right here, right now, did not say I condemn China because they did not lock down Wuhan earlier!

What they said, and I am one of them so I know exactly what was said and meant, is that China took some extraordinary, almost unbelievable measures to suppress an epidemic in Wuhan (and then later in the rest of China), while at the very same time putting huge pressure on foreign governments to not shut down travel to Wuhan, and, to expand the argument a little, through their puppet organizations around the world (like the World Health Organization) denied that there was a serious problem.

Now I have two questions here.

First, what is your reaction to the actual observation, or argument, being made?

And second -- and I kind of hesitate to wander into this -- but you are a smart guy, and you're pretty articulate. I am asking for a little introspection here -- and I'm not imputing that your evil! -- but why do you think you missed the argument that was being made? And responded as if something else were said, that would be a lot easier to argue against.; 4/19/20, 6:28 PM
Bay Area Guy said...: Other stuff - Yahoo News is throwing some good kidney shots on Grandpa Simpson.

Seven women have now accused Joe Biden of inappropriate touching

Money Graf:

"The gestures the women recalled include inhaling the hair of former Nevada lawmaker Lucy Flores and kissing the back of her head; rubbing noses with former political aide Amy Lappos; resting his hand on the thigh of sexual assault survivor Caitlyn Caruso during an event on sexual assault at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, and hugging her “just a little bit too long”; and, last but most likely not least, dropping his hand down the back of writer D. J. Hill at a fundraising event in Minneapolis."

With apologies to Black Lives Matter: "Hands Up - Don't Grope!"

Ok, back to sunbathing.

Carry on, Comrades.; 4/19/20, 6:29 PM
Drago said...: The Democrats✔@TheDemocrats
"In this time of crisis, we must come together as Americans. Donald Trump has instead stoked the flames of racism by calling #COVID19 the “Chinese virus” and equating Chinatowns in the United States with China. Words have consequences. And Trump’s words are dangerous."
April 18, 2020

That sums up the politics of this pretty succinctly.; 4/19/20, 6:29 PM
J. Farmer said...: I will now return to reading some Faulkner, listening to Bruckner, and playing some piano. Later, a pleasant walk, in the spring desert air, up the hill at dusk. I imagine Farmer will still be compulsively disputating after all that.

I'll grant you it isn't as interesting as coming here to give your itinerary.; 4/19/20, 6:29 PM
Inga said...: “She thinks we've already forgotten her lies about Trump being responsible for the ventilator and testing shortages/delays.

The reports that have come out in the last month demonstrate conclusively how evil those lies were.”

Over the last month, until a few days ago, I haven’t opined on Trump and how he handled ventilators and testing except to say he was doing better than I thought. I did that on purpose. Now go try to find me criticizing Trump on how he handled ventilators and testing. Why do you lie so much?; 4/19/20, 6:31 PM
Known Unknown said...: Currently, the mortality rate in Ohio is 0.004%. In my county, it is 0.00035%. Yet, I cannot get my haircut or my dog groomed.; 4/19/20, 6:38 PM
Inga said...: “I'll grant you it isn't as interesting as coming here to give your itinerary.”

I wonder why there are people who come into these threads merely to tell others what to talk about or to tell them to stop talking amongst themselves and think it’s in the least bit interesting to hear what they are doing instead of commenting here? Why is it even worth commenting on to them?; 4/19/20, 6:39 PM
Known Unknown said...: The Democrats✔@TheDemocrats
"In this time of crisis, we must come together as Americans. Donald Trump has instead stoked the flames of racism by calling #COVID19 the “Chinese virus” and equating Chinatowns in the United States with China. Words have consequences. And Trump’s words are dangerous."
April 18, 2020

This is what chirping from the sidelines looks like. Idiotic. And I didn't even vote for Trump.; 4/19/20, 6:39 PM
Francisco D said...: In 2018, approximately 235,000 people died every month in the U.S., according to CDC statistics.

So if we go back three month to mid-January, 800, 000 people are likely have died in the U.S. during the coronavirus pandemic. About 40,000 people have died of COVID-19 (assuming the stats are not inflated such as is the case in NY) since mid-January.

I know Kenny B isn't very good at math because he still does not seem to understand what "rate" means and what a denominator does. (I blame the education system in Canada). Whoever, let me give him another chance.

What percentage of US deaths over the last three months have been attributed to COVID-19 that "devastating catastrophe" that scares the piss out of you?; 4/19/20, 6:40 PM
J. Farmer said...: @mandrewa:

China took some extraordinary, almost unbelievable measures to suppress an epidemic in Wuhan (and then later in the rest of China), while at the very same time putting huge pressure on foreign governments to not shut down travel to Wuhan, and, to expand the argument a little, through their puppet organizations around the world (like the World Health Organization) denied that there was a serious problem.

Your quote of mine was in response to Ken B's comment, which says nothing about "putting huge pressure on foreign governments to not shut down travel to Wuhan." And frankly, that doesn't even make sense. The airport, railway, and metro were closed and all public transport suspended. What was the "pressure on foreign governments to not shut down travel to Wuhan"?

but why do you think you missed the argument that was being made? And responded as if something else were said, that would be a lot easier to argue against.

I submit that that question is better directed to yourself.; 4/19/20, 6:41 PM
Drago said...: Inga: "Over the last month, until a few days ago, I haven’t opined on Trump and how he handled ventilators and testing except to say he was doing better than I thought"

Congratulations. But your "work" prior to that deserves to be called out when you make calls for "partisanship" civility BS.

Of course, if you meant even one iota of what you claim to mean, you would have at least once called out the continuous lefty ChiCom propaganda-driven lies against Trump on this blog.

But we all know that was never going to happen, don't we?

So you know precisely what you can do with your trademark one-way calls for stopping "partisanship".; 4/19/20, 6:41 PM
Inga said...: Not Like the Flu, Not Like Car Crashes, Not Like...
It’s about the spike.

How deadly is Covid-19 compared to seasonal flu, past pandemics, or car crashes?

To offer context, we have produced two charts showing coronavirus deaths along with deaths from other common causes in the past to which the disease has recently been compared. One chart shows deaths for the United States, the other for New York, the state hardest hit.

Note that the data sets begin at different points in the year (as marked on the left). Also note that the figures shown here are for new deaths each week, not for cumulative deaths.; 4/19/20, 6:44 PM
Drago said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; 4/19/20, 6:44 PM
walter said...: Yes Inga,
When the numbers are so low, a spike % can be quite impressive. If Brown county has another death, their total will double!
We better extend to July, just in case.
(You can see in that article they are struggling to tie it to election)
Btw, perhaps tied to a meat processing plant.
https://wtaq.com/news/articles/2020/apr/15/workers-at-denmark-meat-processor-that-reported-covid-19-cases-faced-threats-officials-say/1007142/; 4/19/20, 6:46 PM
Bay Area Guy said...: Dr. Fallacy is yapping about China now.

"Fauci said he didn’t “feel confident at all” that China's “low number” of cases and deaths were accurate.

He told Fox News: “I think any of us who have been dealing with this now for the last few months don't feel confident at all that we have all of the data of the originally infected individuals, how long there were people in the circulation or even now, how many deaths there really are in China.”

Keen grasp of the obvious, Tony.

My favorite Graf:

"He said a study by a group of evolutionary virologists examined the genome sequences of the coronavirus and other bat viruses that evolved."

Why can't we now call it the ChiCom Bat Virus? The geneticists have spoken!; 4/19/20, 6:47 PM
walter said...: "inhaling the hair of former Nevada lawmaker Lucy Flores"
Maybe he knows Spanish and was curious.; 4/19/20, 6:50 PM
Meade said...: When Trump walks off after his pressers I wish they’d play “You Can’t Always Get What You Want”; 4/19/20, 6:51 PM
Drago said...: Bay Area Guy: "Why can't we now call it the ChiCom Bat Virus? The geneticists have spoken!"

Because just yesterday, just yesterday, Inga's totally non-partisan democrats party, via their twitter, were still calling Trump a racist for daring to say the virus comes from China.

Just. Yesterday.; 4/19/20, 6:52 PM
Bay Area Guy said...: I like "ChiCom Bat Virus". It's catchy and accurate.

However, I don't wanna run afoul of Althouse or Meade, although we're not talking about geese.; 4/19/20, 6:56 PM
Anne-I-Am said...: Bay Area Guy,

Just came in off the back porch. Not 75 anymore--and a cool breeze--but nice sun.

Ran in Wildcat Canyon today. Amazed at a crazy woman, coming up a narrow trail with poison oak on either side, who screamed at me, "Stay back!". I just laughed at her and told her I was going to run by her whether she liked it or not. And another guy who yelled, "Six feet! Six feet!". For the most part, the people outside are not acting like crazed possums.

Here is an inexplicable (to me) Bay Area phenomenon: young woman, running, wearing heavy cloth mask, and full length tights, and A FREAKING DOWN JACKET. I was so hot I had taken off my shirt and was in only my running bra and shorts. And still dying.

I think people in NoCal have weather PTSD, from the weather changing so drastically from one hour to the next.; 4/19/20, 7:00 PM
Bay Area Guy said...: Hey Anne--I-Am,

Hello Comrade!

I was walking on a trail in Tilden Park last week with my teenage son, and some idiotic jogger yelled, "Single File!" as he passed me slowly.

"Hey Usain Bolt - there's plenty of room on your left," I yelled back.
These little fascists have no manners.

Still blue skies, but yes a nice breeze in early evening. I'm going to SF tomorrow for lunch. The Presidio is always nice.; 4/19/20, 7:08 PM
Mark said...: I think this is a new Dr. Blake. Or, at least, newish.; 4/19/20, 7:15 PM
Kyjo said...: mandrewa @4:12pm:

39 / (0.32 x 40,000) = 0.003

That would be the infection fatality rate for Chelsea, MA. In contrast an average flu epidemic has an infection fatality rate of 0.010, which is 3 times higher.

I believe the IFR for seasonal flu is typically said to be 0.1%, i.e., 0.001. So an IFR of 0.003 would make SARS2 3 times as deadly as your average seasonal flu. Still well below the CFRs we’ve been seeing, and less than 1/10th of what WHO was saying a month ago.; 4/19/20, 7:17 PM
brylun said...: Farmer said that Tianhe International Airport was closed on January 23rd. Apparently, that is not correct.

According to this story, [b]etween January 23rd and January 28th, the number of flights not flown totalled 9,807 with only domestic services affected at that stage.

Farmer, what is your source that international flights from Tianhe Airport were halted on January 23rd?; 4/19/20, 7:17 PM
rcocean said...: Trump is so refreshingly honest, one good thing about being a businessman, not a professional politician. Someone from the Salt Lake City tribune (?) asked him if left Romney off the task force because he held a grudge over impeachment, and Trump said,

"Yes, I have a grudge against Romney, and I left him off. I'm not a fan of Mitt Romney. I don't want his advice". LOL!; 4/19/20, 7:17 PM
Ken B said...: Inga
Howard pegged them. They react like stuck pigs because they know we are right: a real calamity has befallen us, many will die or be damaged, many more will be sickened, we will all be poorer, and be so for some years, and their electoral confidence Is shattered. They are scared and panicky.; 4/19/20, 7:20 PM
Mark said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; 4/19/20, 7:21 PM
brylun said...: Here's another story saying that despite the January 23 shutdown order "Wuhan airport is still in operation and several airlines are checking passengers as usual" and "The city airport will receive and see off 600 planes today."; 4/19/20, 7:22 PM
Mark said...: Quickly scrolling through the 200 or so comments since I left, I see that the conversation has not advanced one millimeter. Still going around and around and around with the same old same old.; 4/19/20, 7:22 PM
Michael K said...: Michael K did make a prediction. He said the final total would be around 20k. I think we can call that one wrong too.’”

Yes, we can.

I see even if I avoid you twerps, you still have to get a shot in. I estimated about 20k range and my estimate still stands. I did not count all the bullshit cases of "Suspected/ probables" that Cuomo and the other Democrats added in.

Fortunately there are other blogs where serious discussions rake place.; 4/19/20, 7:25 PM
narciso said...: I think brainslugs are a more serious problem, anne I am. a down jacket, Shirley they can't be serious, down here is central florida, it's a little warmer, but with a breeze,; 4/19/20, 7:25 PM
stevew said...: Mother Nature is fickle around here this time of year. High 20's/Low 30's yesterday with snow. Brilliant sunshine and low 60's today.; 4/19/20, 7:26 PM
Known Unknown said...: If you remove NYC from the U.S. numbers, the United States is equivalent (nearly) to Germany.

Yet, keep those subways running!; 4/19/20, 7:28 PM
Ken B said...: Brylun
This is what I was trying to explain to Farmer. Thank you for the details and link. It was even in a widely disseminated NYT timeline.
The CCP let people fly after they knew there was an outbreak. Even Jan 23 was too late, and after they knew it was human transmissible. They admitted it on Jan 20, which is before the 23rd, and they knew by at the latest the 14th. And over 5mm passengers left Wuhan after that date.
https://www.vice.com/en_ca/article/qjdydq/china-knew-about-human-to-human-transmission-of-coronavirus-but-waited-6-days-to-tell-the-world; 4/19/20, 7:29 PM
stevew said...: Go ahead, try to change the subject from the current circle jerk. Ive tried a couple of times and failed. Obvious why. With you Mark and Michael K.; 4/19/20, 7:29 PM
J. Farmer said...: @brylun:

According to this story, [b]etween January 23rd and January 28th, the number of flights not flown totalled 9,807 with only domestic services affected at that stage.

The story you quoted was published February 21st. It was referring to cancellations of scheduled flights.

Here's another story saying that despite the January 23 shutdown order "Wuhan airport is still in operation and several airlines are checking passengers as usual" and "The city airport will receive and see off 600 planes today."

The order was made in the early morning hours of the 23rd and was to go into effect at 10am. This is referenced in the first paragraph. The flights referenced departed before the order went into effect, and the article noted, "China Southern Airlines, which has allocated the most transport capacity to the airport, has canceled all flights with Wuhan stops after 10 a.m."; 4/19/20, 7:30 PM
Anne-I-Am said...: narciso,

STOP CALLING ME SHIRLEY. Haha. Nice that someone else uses my corny movie lines.; 4/19/20, 7:31 PM
brylun said...: My wife and I were in Hong Kong on January 27-28 and the flights from Wuhan were not cancelled.; 4/19/20, 7:33 PM
Anne-I-Am said...: stevew,

I have tried with varying success to stop the mental masturbation over the same-old, same-old.

Some of us just carry on parallel conversations. At this point, I am going to wait for the evening open mike night. Have a jigsaw puzzle that I have to work while I still have natural light. It is a bear. All of the pieces are the same shape.; 4/19/20, 7:33 PM
Sebastian said...: Ioannidis on Levin: models started with "astronomical error."

Evident to the pro-sanity faction all along, of course.; 4/19/20, 7:33 PM
Mark said...: Go ahead, try to change the subject from the current circle jerk. Ive tried a couple of times and failed. Obvious why. With you Mark and Michael K.

I clicked over last night and watched a couple of minutes of that celebrity "we are the world" pat-themselves-on-the-back CJ. It was as bad as the remote SNL last week.; 4/19/20, 7:34 PM
brylun said...: On February 12th, when we returned to and departed from Hong Kong, the flights from Wuhan were cancelled.; 4/19/20, 7:34 PM
Ken B said...: Michael K Is emotionally incapable of admitting error I conclude. He calls pointing out his error “a shot”.; 4/19/20, 7:34 PM
Inga said...: I made lemon blueberry scones, whipped up some heavy cream and had a proper cream tea!; 4/19/20, 7:35 PM
Big Mike said...: Currently, the mortality rate in Ohio is 0.004%. In my county, it is 0.00035%. Yet, I cannot get my haircut or my dog groomed.

@Known Unknown, the mortality rate in my county is ZERO, but I can’t get a haircut either. As far as the Democrats are concerned, the Commonwealth of Virginia consists of Fairfax and the other counties around Washington,which are well-larded with the drones of the federal bureaucracy, the city of Charlottesville, and a lot of localities that don’t count for very much because they’re chock full of deplorables.; 4/19/20, 7:36 PM
J. Farmer said...: @Ken B:

The CCP let people fly after they knew there was an outbreak. Even Jan 23 was too late, and after they knew it was human transmissible. They admitted it on Jan 20, which is before the 23rd, and they knew by at the latest the 14th. And over 5mm passengers left Wuhan after that date.

Read the AP article that is linked in the Vice story. Recall that China's lockdown of Wuhan was criticized at the time it was announced by a number of public health officials. And that was after human-to-human transmission had already been confirmed.; 4/19/20, 7:36 PM
Inga said...: Yesterday I ordered a delicious Pad Thai through Door Dash. Wonderful!; 4/19/20, 7:37 PM
Mark said...: The weekend is too short, I tell you what.

Not looking forward to being back on the job (from home) tomorrow. Making it look like you are doing work is just as hard as doing work.; 4/19/20, 7:38 PM
Inga said...: On Friday I gave myself a pedicure on my back deck.; 4/19/20, 7:39 PM
narciso said...: this entry was mishandled by starz kind of a cross between harry potter and bond,; 4/19/20, 7:41 PM
Mark said...: Since there has been such curiosity about it, I still haven't made my Easter ham.

I have finished up my leftovers, though. So maybe soon. Even though Anne-I-Am does not like my Smithfield ham.; 4/19/20, 7:42 PM
Narayanan said...: What is also interesting is that different strains can now be identified genetically and they infect different areas
&&&&::?????
How to tell these are "mutations in situ" as it were vs different strains in "patients zero" in different populations?

Is this being factor in!; 4/19/20, 7:43 PM
Mark said...: Yeah, The Rook.

Watched the first few. Got bored. Stopped watching.; 4/19/20, 7:43 PM
J. Farmer said...: @brylun:

My wife and I were in Hong Kong on January 27-28 and the flights from Wuhan were not cancelled.

From a local San Francisco news channel: "Thursdays non-stop flight from Wuhan to the San Francisco International Airport was cancelled as Chinese authorities shut down the airport there to contain the coronavirus."; 4/19/20, 7:45 PM
Inga said...: On Thursday my youngest grandson wouldn’t go to bed unless he could call me for a FaceTime. He is the sweetest little guy, who when he says “l” makes his mouth do the cutest thing possible trying to say it correctly. Be still my grandmotherly heart, I love that little boy!; 4/19/20, 7:45 PM
Ingachuck'stoothlessARM said...: Perhaps a little Ovid
would be a welcome break from Covid?

Love and War

Lovers all are soldiers, and Cupid has his campaigns:
I tell you, Atticus, lovers all are soldiers.
Youth is fit for war, and also fit for Venus.
Imagine an aged soldier, an elderly lover!
A general looks for spirit in his brave soldiery;
a pretty girl wants spirit in her companions.
Both stay up all night long, and each sleeps on the ground;
one guards his mistress's doorway, one his general's.
The soldier's lot requires far journeys; send his girl,
the zealous lover will follow her anywhere.
He'll cross the glowering mountains, the rivers swollen with storm;
he'll tread a pathway through the heaped-up snows;
and never whine of raging Eurus when he sets sail
or wait for stars propitious for his voyage.
Who but lovers and soldiers endure the chill of night,
and blizzards interspersed with driving rain?
The soldier reconnoiters among the dangerous foe;
the lover spies to learn his rival's plans.
Soldiers besiege strong cities; lovers, a harsh girl's home;
one storms town gates, the other storms house doors.
It's clever strategy to raid a sleeping foe
and slay an unarmed host by force of arms.
(That's how the troops of Thracian Rhesus met their doom,
and you, O captive steeds, forsook your master.)
Well, lovers take advantage of husbands when they sleep,
launching surprise attacks while the enemy snores.
To slip through bands of guards and watchful sentinels
is always the soldier's mission - and the lover's.
Mars wavers; Venus flutters: the conquered rise again,
and those you'd think could never fall, lie low.
So those who like to say that love is indolent
should stop: Love is the soul of enterprise.
Sad Achilles burns for Briseis, his lost darling:
Trojans, smash the Greeks' power while you may!
From Andromache's embrace Hector went to war;
his own wife set the helmet on his head;
and High King Agamemnon, looking on Priam's child,
was stunned (they say) by the Maenad's flowing hair.
And Mars himself was trapped in The Artificer's bonds:
no tale was more notorious in heaven.
I too was once an idler, born for careless ease;
my shady couch had made my spirit soft.
But care for a lovely girl aroused me from my sloth
and bid me to enlist in her campaign.
So now you see me forceful, in combat all night long.
If you want a life of action, fall in love.; 4/19/20, 7:46 PM
JohnAnnArbor said...: This is a very active blog commenting community.; 4/19/20, 7:47 PM
Ken B said...: Farmer
Are you conceding my claim then that they let 5mm fly after they knew on Jan 14? Because that’s more than enough to show their guilt.; 4/19/20, 7:48 PM
Big Mike said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; 4/19/20, 7:49 PM
Ken B said...: “ all right, I'm back from the walk, what's new at the argument clinic,”

Sorry. This is Abuse.The Argument Clinic is next door.; 4/19/20, 7:50 PM
stevew said...: Love good pad thai, one of my favorites. That and green curry. And satay. And Tom Yum soup. Cambodian is great too. Lemongrass - yumm.

WFH has me working way more than before the shut down. I normally travel every day, sometimes just a couple of hours, other times on planes and overnight. Working on planes is mostly just catching up on paperwork. Work while driving is all phone calls. But in both cases I'm only working part time. Now I'm on at 8:30am and go straight through 6pm or so. Often scrambling to grab some lunch. Good news i guess is that work has yet to encroach on nights and weekends.; 4/19/20, 7:50 PM
Michael K said...: Ken B said...
Michael K Is emotionally incapable of admitting error I conclude. He calls pointing out his error “a shot”.

Try real hard not to be a prick.; 4/19/20, 7:52 PM
Ken B said...: “ you are, if anything, vastly worse. I’ve already told you what I think of you. You’re an ignorant ghoul hoping to see the bodies stacked in the streets.”

Fortunately I know the value of your opinions Big Mike. But I’ll just leave that there since the usual suspects deny anyone makes such ridiculous and odious charges.; 4/19/20, 7:53 PM
Ingachuck'stoothlessARM said...: @stevew
with that bourbon and those tasty meals, we're coming over to your place after this is all over!; 4/19/20, 7:53 PM
Ken B said...: “ Try real hard not to be a pricK”

Oh, hell I won’t deny I can be a prick. Why don’t you try real hard to be honest? You made an error. The only shame is in not admitting it.; 4/19/20, 7:55 PM
Mark said...: Worldometers just clicked over to a new day. They show 1534 deaths today, more than 300 fewer than yesterday at 1867, which in turn was significantly less than the days before, which also included the NY change-in-criteria spike.; 4/19/20, 7:56 PM
Inga said...: “ just clicked over to a new day. They show 1534 deaths today, more than 300 fewer than yesterday at 1867, which in turn was significantly less than the days before, which also included the NY change-in-criteria spike.”

Thank you God and social distancing.; 4/19/20, 7:58 PM
stevew said...: @Ingachuck'stoothlessARM. Deal! Unh, hold on, how many are "we" in we're?; 4/19/20, 7:58 PM
Anne-I-Am said...: Mark,

I have no issues with your Smithfield ham. I was just laughing to myself because there was a cluster of ChiCom Bat Virus cases at the plant, and they shut it down. Hence my admonition to you to, "Put the ham down, and back away, slowly." It could have been a vector! :-); 4/19/20, 7:59 PM
narciso said...: the producers either didn't read the book, or didn't care; 4/19/20, 8:00 PM
mandrewa said...: Kyjo said, "I believe the IFR for seasonal flu is typically said to be 0.1%, i.e., 0.001. So an IFR of 0.003 would make SARS2 3 times as deadly as your average seasonal flu. Still well below the CFRs we’ve been seeing, and less than 1/10th of what WHO was saying a month ago."

Thanks for the correction, Kyjo.; 4/19/20, 8:00 PM
Inga said...: On Wednesday I was sad because I finished binge watching Game of Thrones. Oh why oh why did it end that way?!; 4/19/20, 8:02 PM
Anne-I-Am said...: Stevew,

I too am cooking a lot more. Time was, I was in SoCal 3-4 days a week; my son worked odd hours--often gone from 3 pm - 1 am. So we foraged on our own.

Now, he is only working sporadically, so he goes off to mountain bike, then comes in and announces that he is famished an is going to eat the cat, the nextdoor neighbor's dogs, and then the toddler across the street. Last night, I made firecracker shrimp--although I think the consensus here is that it takes a lot more chili than most recipes call for. I added Korean red-chili garlic sauce, but had only a tablespoon or so left in the jar.; 4/19/20, 8:03 PM
Sebastian said...: David Katz on Levin: talking sense on who is actually at risk. You know, evidence. Etc. etc.

Sanity breaking out all over. Giesecke, Wittkowski, Lee, Ioannidis, Katz, a few others. Too late?; 4/19/20, 8:05 PM
Anne-I-Am said...: Mark K,

You must be a masochist. Or your learning curve is very shallow. No use engaging with the Canuck and the harpy. Your Althouse life will be much more pleasant if you just interact with those who enjoy pleasant conversation and don't argue in bad faith.

Or keep on going--it is kind of like watching a 10-car pile-up on the 880.; 4/19/20, 8:05 PM
Big Mike said...: @Ken B., I removed my remark after catching you in a rare comment that made sense. Don’t make me sorry I did that. You have been wrong about nearly everything related to this epidemic (not a pandemic, however much you might desire it) except the poor response of the CCP. You have no empathy whatever for anyone who isn’t yourself.; 4/19/20, 8:05 PM
Mark said...: These sports channels gotta be REAL desperate if they are rerunning preseason football games.; 4/19/20, 8:06 PM
narciso said...: Those two show runners should be banned from further writing projects.; 4/19/20, 8:06 PM
Inga said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; 4/19/20, 8:06 PM
J. Farmer said...: @Ken B:

Are you conceding my claim then that they let 5mm fly after they knew on Jan 14? Because that’s more than enough to show their guilt.

The 5 million figure is how many people left Wuhan before the lockdown went into effect, not just people that flew. My point is that even after human-to-human virus was confirmed, the lockdown of Wuhan was criticized by a number of public health officials, and there were claims that the lockdown would be ineffectual, counterproductive, or might even backfire. It seems difficult to claim they should have locked down earlier given that they were criticized for locking down at all.; 4/19/20, 8:06 PM
Inga said...: Today I started watching Fellowes’ “The English Game” on Netflix. It’s pretty good, but not on par with Downton Abbey by a long shot; 4/19/20, 8:07 PM
Mark said...: So she would eat it with a fox in a box!; 4/19/20, 8:08 PM
Anne-I-Am said...: Bay Area Guy!

Speaking of the 880, which I just did...what is YOUR least favorite Bay Area parking lot? Up until a year ago, when I had a role change, I was on the 880 several days a week. As far as I am concerned, that stretch of road could catch on fire from Castro Valley to San Jose, and it would be an improvement.; 4/19/20, 8:09 PM
narciso said...: I gave up on game of thrones after they blew everybody in the penultimate season.; 4/19/20, 8:09 PM
Sebastian said...: mandrewa: "So an IFR of 0.003 would make SARS2 3 times as deadly as your average seasonal flu"

Not trying to pick an argument with the good guys, but don't forget the life expectancy issue: fatality rate really needs to be adjusted for years lost--perhaps six for average old, sick WuFlu victims, 60 for hundreds of young flu victims every year. Age distribution matters.; 4/19/20, 8:09 PM
narciso said...: The rook had hundreds of years of history which they discarded to make this very byzqntine plot lines.; 4/19/20, 8:11 PM
Anne-I-Am said...: Mark,

Well...ham is not my favorite. Unless it is in a croque-monsieur. But yes, I might eat it on a train; I might eat it in the rain: I might eat it in a house; I might eat it with a mouse.

But I prefer a bone-in ribeye, rare-plus.; 4/19/20, 8:11 PM
stevew said...: Yes Anne-I-Am, us too. We would usually cook on the weekend, no loading up just making enough quantity that there would be ample leftovers for the coming week. Pre shutdown I would typically be away one or two nights per week and mrs. stevew would either enjoy leftovers or make something quick and easy for herself. Often we would go out to eat Friday or Saturday.

Now we cook most nights, though we have been doing the occasional take-out to help our local restaurants too.

Adding heat to a dish is an art - so many people have different tastes and tolerances. Personally speaking you can not add too much to my food.; 4/19/20, 8:11 PM
Anne-I-Am said...: narciso-

Rook? Or book? Yeah, the show runners blew the last two seasons. Still, it was a fun ride for the first six.

Did you see the bit Kit Harrington did on SNL as a dinner guest at a NY dinner party? Hilarious.; 4/19/20, 8:13 PM
Andy said...: I was going to respond to someone up thread and then I realized that I don't care enough to argue anymore.; 4/19/20, 8:13 PM
J. Farmer said...: @Anne:

But I prefer a bone-in ribeye, rare-plus.

That is my preferred cut, as well. Seared in a cast iron skillet and butter basted with thyme and shallots.

But, if I was confined to one kind of meat for the rest of my life, it would be pork. More versatility.; 4/19/20, 8:14 PM
Inga said...: “Downton Abbey creator Julian Fellowes had a prolific 2019, and 2020 is already proving to be just as busy. In addition the next Downtown film, he's working on The Gilded Age, a period drama set in New York City in the 1880s. And other projects on his desk include a Netflix television series about soccer called The English Game, a project centered around the Rothschild Dynasty, one of the richest families in history, called Five Arrows, and a series about the Queen's art collection.

Fellowes's novel Belgravia will be made into a show for ITV in the U.K., which will also air on EPIX in the U.S. this year Here's what we know so far.”

https://www.townandcountrymag.com/leisure/arts-and-culture/a25904159/belgravia-julian-fellowes-news/

Can’t wait for Belgravia and The Gilded Age!; 4/19/20, 8:15 PM
I Have Misplaced My Pants said...: This week's menu at Casa Pants:

tonight-spaghetti and meatballs with a salad tonight
monday-chicken and dumplings with a lemon pie
tuesday-pork roast, mashed sweet potatoes and cinnamon apples
wednesday-beef stroganoff, egg noodles, roasted carrots, brownies
thursday-quiche lorraine, fruit salad
friday-leftovers/forage
saturday-strawberry birthday cake, since my almost 4 year old is having her birthday dinner and can't tell me what she wants to eat other than 'pink cake'

What are you people eating?; 4/19/20, 8:16 PM
Drago said...: Ken B: "....and their electoral confidence Is shattered."
4/19/20, 7:20 PM

"...their electoral confidence...."

Quite telling.; 4/19/20, 8:17 PM
narciso said...: The first episode has been kind of meh, likr the first chapter, the next should be better.; 4/19/20, 8:17 PM
Anne-I-Am said...: stevew,

Heat is something that has grown on me over the past decade or so. My mother's cooking style was bland--pure Midwestern. The first time I had a real curry was in London. Whewee! I almost cried. And the sweat!

My boys were instrumental in my cooking evolution. While they never turn down a steak or a piece of salmon, they love spicy anything. I like experimenting with different blends of chili powder. And I have come to enjoy adding fresh jalapenos to Thai, even though i am not sure jalapenos are indigenous to southeast Asia.

I read an interesting article somewhere on the intertubz about a pepper eating contest that happens every year. They have a particular chili that they use (can't remember the name; several hundred thousand Scoville units hotter than the ghost pepper). The problem they have is that each year, the peppers get hotter; so no one will ever beat the first year record for grams eaten.

The entire experience sounded incandescently unpleasant. But I wouldn't mind watching.; 4/19/20, 8:18 PM
Inga said...: “But, if I was confined to one kind of meat for the rest of my life, it would be pork. More versatility.”

You might want to stock up, there are predictions of shortages in about two weeks due to the Covid outbreaks in the pork processing plants in various states.; 4/19/20, 8:18 PM
Mark said...: Once upon a time.

Alas, big cuts of beef don't agree with me anymore.; 4/19/20, 8:18 PM
stevew said...: "But, if I was confined to one kind of meat for the rest of my life, it would be pork. More versatility."

So true. And, yet, we don't have it as often as we should or would like. Tonight we did pork chops on the grill. Covered with a Moroccan inspired rub and left on the counter for about two hours before grilling. Turned out great. Mrs. stevew roasted cabbage wedges with bacon, great complementary side dish.; 4/19/20, 8:19 PM
narciso said...: I had thai shrimp once, it required two mugs of beer to wash it down.; 4/19/20, 8:20 PM
J. Farmer said...: For fans of Downton Abbey, or the Edwardian era in general, check out PBS' miniseries Manor House. It was a Channel 4 series aired in Britain as The Edwardian Country House. A family is chosen to assume the rule of an upper class family, and others are put in the role of the various servants, with all living according to the rules of the era.; 4/19/20, 8:21 PM
mandrewa said...: J. Farmer said,

"Read the AP article that is linked in the Vice story. Recall that China's lockdown of Wuhan was criticized at the time it was announced by a number of public health officials. And that was after human-to-human transmission had already been confirmed."

Thanks for the correction, J. Farmer.

But I don't think it really addresses the larger issue. This isn't just a question of Wuhan International Airport.

I really do thank you because I see that I have made a mistake in the way I've been arguing this. I definitely had a detail wrong.

Take what I originally said, and replace "Wuhan" with "China." It is still the same argument.

Look millions of people were on the move in China and in Hubei province because in addition to normal movement, it was the New Year holiday period. The number of people that had moved from Wuhan and Hubei to other parts of China during the time of the epidemic, and before the whole of Hubei province was put under quarantine, probably numbers in the millions.

If Hubei province had been infected then the rest of China had to have been infected. (In fact it's a digression, but this is something that mystifies me. How could China have possibly contained something as infectious as this disease allegedly is by the measures they took, even extreme as they were?)

So yes they nominally shut down Wuhan to international travel. Even if maybe they didn't carry it off perfectly.

But they did not shut down travel to China. And more importantly they put extraordinary pressure on other nations to not close their borders to China. And they assured many governments around the world that things were under control and there was no real danger.

And if my memory is correct there are several countries that defied China anyway, among them South Korea, Taiwan, and I think Australia.

How can China's behavior possibly be justified it if was correct to put the whole province of Hubei under quarantine?; 4/19/20, 8:21 PM
Anne-I-Am said...: J Farmer,

Oh the pig, the wonderful pig, the delicious, nutritious, auspicious pig. He is delectable from the tip of his ears to his tail. Sadly, sadly, sadly for him.

No wonder when they go feral, they are really quite angry. I am sure they have been harboring a grudge for the past millenia.; 4/19/20, 8:21 PM
stevew said...: @Anne-I-Am: I will revise my previous statement about heat in my food to say, within reason. Eating those chilis for no other reason but to set some record is not for me! :-); 4/19/20, 8:22 PM
Kyjo said...: @Farmer, do you think China would have been justified in shutting down Wuhan earlier, even if it’s hard to criticize them for not doing so?; 4/19/20, 8:22 PM
J. Farmer said...: You might want to stock up, there are predictions of shortages in about two weeks due to the Covid outbreaks in the pork processing plants in various states.

I have a very well stocked chest freezer.; 4/19/20, 8:23 PM
narciso said...: We like the other white meat, pork, as well; 4/19/20, 8:23 PM
narciso said...: In lieu of turkey on some holidays.; 4/19/20, 8:24 PM
J. Farmer said...: @Kyjo:

@Farmer, do you think China would have been justified in shutting down Wuhan earlier, even if it’s hard to criticize them for not doing so?

I did not have any problem with the original lockdown, so I imagine I wouldn't have been bothered had it occurred earlier.; 4/19/20, 8:24 PM
Mark said...: But, if I was confined to one kind of meat for the rest of my life, it would be pork. More versatility

Homer: What about bacon? Ham? Pork chops?

Lisa: Dad, those all come from the same animal.

Homer: Heh heh heh. Ooh, yeah, right, Lisa. A wonderful, magical animal.

If only it were true.; 4/19/20, 8:24 PM
Inga said...: My German mother taught me to cook spicy! Lots of Hungarian paprika, hot and sweet, garlic, onions, sour cream. My chicken paprikash and my beef goulash are my familiy’s favorite, those and Hungarian sausage and a German Hungarian potato dish made with onions and lots of sweet paprika next to a with a wonderful cooling cucumber salad with sour cream dill sauce.; 4/19/20, 8:27 PM
Mark said...: Homer: All normal people love meat. If I went to a barbeque and there was no meat, I would say 'Yo Goober! Where's the meat?'. I'm trying to impress people here, Lisa. You don't win friends with salad.

Bart: [musically] You don't win friends with salad! You don't win friends with salad! You don't win friends with salad!

Bart, Homer: You don't win friends with salad! You don't win friends with salad! You don't win friends with salad!

Bart, Homer, Marge: You don't win friends with salad! You don't win friends with salad! You don't win friends with salad!

Lisa: Wait Dad! Good news, everyone! You don't have to eat meat! I've got enough gazpacho for everyone.

[Crowd murmurs]

Lisa: It's tomato soup, served ice cold!

[Crowd laughs out loud as Lisa growls and stomps off]

Barney Gumble: Go back to Russia!; 4/19/20, 8:27 PM
bagoh20 said...: The number of Wisconsinites killed by the illness so far is 220. Fatalities rose by nine since Saturday.

The flu killed 379 in Wisconsin in 2017-18. When that number was at 220, where was the concern? Where was the stay at home order?

Good thing Covid is not the flu.; 4/19/20, 8:27 PM
Anne-I-Am said...: Pants,

Your menu sounds excellent. You have young ones at home. Always a challenge, to satisfy little mouths and adult mouths. And not cook the same thing over and over.

When my boys were home (three within four years), and my sister's four were just a bit younger, she would call me and say, "What are the W*****s having for dinner this week?" I would give her my menu, and she would copy it.

She thought the firecracker shrimp sounded tasty, but her eldest daughter does not like shrimp. So she will substitute chicken. I told her that then it is not firecracker shrimp. Not sure chicken will meld with all the flavors as well. Maybe i should tell her to substitute a firm, mild fish.; 4/19/20, 8:27 PM
Inga said...: “No wonder when they go feral, they are really quite angry. I am sure they have been harboring a grudge for the past millenia.”

She has a keen understanding of pigs. I’m not surprised.; 4/19/20, 8:29 PM
Mark said...: She thought the firecracker shrimp sounded tasty

[educational film: "The Meat Council Presents... Meat and You: Partners in Freedom. Number 3F03 in the 'Resistance is Useless' series."]

Troy McClure: Hi, I'm Troy McClure. You may remember me from such educational films as "Two Minus Three Equals Negative Fun" and "Firecrackers: The Silent Killer".; 4/19/20, 8:30 PM