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April 22, 2020
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290 comments:
1 – 200 of 290 Newer› Newest»Only the best people:
Former Labradoodle breeder tapped to lead U.S. pandemic task force
@Althouse
you did it!! Thanks!
What is that giant insect partially hidden in those plants?
Beloved ARM,
I've noticed you post a lotta negative comments about Trump, but very few positive comments about your guy, Biden. It seems your political yin & yang is outta balance.......
If Biden had been president, the new cases and deaths today would have been negative numbers. Do you not understand this BAG?
Bay Area Guy said...
negative comments
What do you have against Labradoodle breeders?
Stunning, Prof!
Narr
OK WWI-heads-- are those not the very camo colors seen on many a piece of Allied equipment?
You should have figured Michael Bolton was going to screw things up when his computer virus file had "virus" in the name.
No wonder he's worried about going to a FITA prison.
I love that movie, Mark. I didn't work in that kind of office when I was still working, but I fully recognized all the bullshit parodied in it.
Your plants have names? Ha!
Your eye for composition is quite good and increasingly refined.
We had the sale of our house fall through last week due to tragic personal circumstances for the buyer couple. A new buyer is interested. Fingers crossed.
My hair is longer now than it's been in years. Sadly it is not thicker! Mrs. stevew is aggressively advocating that I let it grow; why not.
And Jennifer Aniston watching "Kung Fu" was strangely arousing.
I've been trying for years to get orchids to reflower without much success. Advice from the experienced hasn't helped. We have my MIL one delivered by a florist and it has been producing flowers for years. MIL ignored it. WTF?...
Today I noticed a stem reaching upwards. I''m hopeful but not optimistic...
"All right. There's my flair. OK? And this is me, expressing myself."
Even Mrs. Stephanopoulos was pretty hot in that film.
Oh, we had the Bobs come visit our work.
And now, I have eight bosses.
Cuomo's policy was to put people with the virus into nursing homes full of old people. That is the worst possible policy.
https://nypost.com/2020/04/21/cuomo-coronavirus-nursing-home-policy-proves-tragic-goodwin
He says he didn’t know. Is that supposed to be better?
Top men Ken, Top Men.
Favorite use of sampling in a pop song: Take Me Home Tonight* by Eddie Money
Runner-ups: Oh Boy by Cam'ron and Otis by Kanye West and Jay-Z
*Okay, technically an interpolation, but why split hairs**
**When I was younger, I thought that was "split heirs" and had something to do with inheritance
I'd like to see the numbers on how many cases/deaths are in care facilities. Watching the local numbers here, it seems that 80-90 percent are.
George Stepanaloplis was a great pal of Jeffery Epstein. Just like Bill Clinton. Stepanoloplus even went to Epstein's party AFTER he got convicted. And of course, Katie Couric was Weinstein's big buddy. What a bunch of weirdos our Media elite are.
Team Slo-Jo's Most Baffling Ad Yet
...thing is, his heart probably isnt that good either
currently reading a book about Brando. The man was amazingly fat in his old age, but incredibly healthy. When he was 65, and for the rest of his life, he weighed 305 lbs. But only had pre-diabetes, and eventually died at 80 of a lung disease.
Brando weighed 165 when he was younger. Amazing that anyone can put on that kind of weight and still be healthy.
He was henry brandon, the long time british reporters niece if memory serves
I bet 50% of the deaths are from nursing home residents, or elderly hospital patients who were infected after admission. I wager the reported 25% number is artificially low because half the victims get transported to an actual hospital ICU. In the case of Mullin's mother, she seems to have died too quickly for that to happen.
Orchids thrive on benign neglect. Throw an ice cube in the pot every week or so and leave them alone.
She was, like nora hagen in wanted, who was cheating on james mcavoy with chris pratt.
"Brando weighed 165 when he was younger. Amazing that anyone can put on that kind of weight and still be healthy."
This would be sure Chuck bait, if Meade weren't flattening his curve.
Yes, if that was the policy, then the Cuomo bubble is finished. Not that I really thought he would replace Biden anyway.
Brando weighed 165 when he was younger. Amazing that anyone can put on that kind of weight and still be healthy.
Probably lucked out in the genetic department.
Anymore erratic people on your walk, well mre than usual.
Yancey
I wouldn’t have believed the report had the guy in charge confirmed it. Just too ridiculous to believe. Criminal frankly.
And yes, not Cuomo. I always thought it would be one of the other governors who performs well or gets lucky.
But I still think Biden is out by Election Day.
Will this be on CNN? I say, never ever.
Harvard didnt want to give the money back.
"Just because you're well-endowed, doesnt mean you can act like a big dick"
personally, I get tired of hearing that, but in this case, I think it's true.
Harvard Caves, Complies with Trump’s Demand to Return Relief Money
https://townhall.com/tipsheet/katiepavlich/2020/04/22/harvard-caves-n2567444
George Stepanaloplis was a great pal of Jeffery Epstein. Just like Bill Clinton. Stepanoloplus even went to Epstein's party AFTER he got convicted. And of course, Katie Couric was Weinstein's big buddy. What a bunch of weirdos our Media elite are.
Seems it's even crapier and rapier across the pond. Jimmy Savile was a real sicko. Rotherham. But then again, we had Sandusky. Brushing off child rape is inconceivable to me. I guess denial is a powerful psychological force.
p.a. First presidential campaign I clearly remember was Bush-Clinton. I saw the documentary about the campaign The War Room and even then I remember thinking, "God that guy seems like a dick." It was Stephanopoulos.
So now it's not Ken B first on every thread.
Now it is ARM.
Weird.
University of Michigan - Ann Arbor
Losing one billion dollars this spring/summer.
Details at the end of the last thread.
Plus, bonus prize, lots of info about the bankrupting if America by government diktat.
Having set a trail for my friends through the streets, staircases, hidden paths, and a couple of parks, I am sitting at the end, observing the people around me.
The park is situated in a less-than-desirable part of Oaktown. There is a homeless person (a woman? Green hair) asleep on a picnic table. There are many kids riding their bikes.
Contra the harpy, the Canuck, and yucky chucky, the non-social-distancers are definitely NOT Trump voters, being all black. There is a group of men arguing loudly about something; none wearing masks. There are small groups of people hanging out at the many picnic tables; again, no masks. The only people I see wearing masks are the few white people, and one heroic black lady picking up trash (talk about futility in action).
So, sadly for our resident panic-mongers, the casual rebellion (no marching, no signs, just refusing to comply) appears to be widespread.
“An Inconvenient Truth” was on TCM tonight. I’d never seen it. What trash.
Harvard Caves, Complies with Trump’s Demand to Return Relief Money
This after they doubled-down and tried to justify get money, putting forth the non-sequitur that they hadn't received Payment Protection Program money.
(they received other CARES money instead)
Its good to know theres a nonconformist spirit out there
How many people are the MSM trying to kill with this attempted hit on use of hydroxychloroquine in any and all cases?
When did reporting negative drug trials become a 'hit'? Most drug trials are negative. It is extraordinarily difficult to develop useful drugs.
The patients in this "study" were all male, with a median age of 68-70 depending on the mix, and disproportionately black, a high health risk group which has been shown to have disproportionate other health issues, and was used in advanced, degraded cases as a last resort.
Blogger rehajm said...
I've been trying for years to get orchids to reflower without much success. Advice from the experienced hasn't helped. We have my MIL one delivered by a florist and it has been producing flowers for years. MIL ignored it. WTF?...
Today I noticed a stem reaching upwards. I''m hopeful but not optimistic...
My wife has had mixed success getting orchids to reflower, some do, some just die. They all get the same treatment. I think it has something to do with how they were potted at the hot house.
When did reporting negative drug trials become a 'hit'? Most drug trials are negative. It is extraordinarily difficult to develop useful drugs.
Schadenfreude for the anti-Trump wackos. But I agree there was a big question mark over it and needed a wait-and-see approach. That's why I hate those pressers. Watching those idiot reporters spar with goofy Trump. It's like picking your favorite Menendez brother.
Cuomo's policy was to put people with the virus into nursing homes full of old people. That is the worst possible policy.
Was he INTENTIONALLY TRYING to increase deaths? You be the judge
Anyone ever read Susan Orlean's The Orchid Thief?
My wife can't unlock the orchid reblooming secret either, try as she might.
"Chick-fil-A Announces $10.8 Million Relief Fund for Communities in Need"
meanwhile...
"Huge Companies Suck Up Hundreds Of Millions In Stimulus Cash Meant For Mom-And-Pop Shops"
We still don’t know about chloroquine because we don’t have proper trials yet. But opposition to trials comes from both Trumpers and anti Trumpers. And we have pro and anti factions for a drug most people had never heard of just weeks ago. The abandonment of rationality.
Farmer
Yes, 20 years ago. Why?
@gilbar:
Was he INTENTIONALLY TRYING to increase deaths? You be the judge
He actually said, "I don't know." Wow. Worst possible answer. Makes liar or clueless the only possible conclusions.
@Ken B:
Farmer
Yes, 20 years ago. Why?
I just read the word "orchid" and it popped in my head. My mother was a big fan of the book. I was talking to her about the plot to Adaptation after I saw it at the theater. I hadn't realized the connection at the time. So apropos of nothing.
Meanwhile that CDC guy who wants to be a "whistleblower" for questioning hydroxychloroquine-plus is revealed to be a self-described "proactive" wannabe gatekeeper obstructing possible drug therapies on his own personal whim here and elsewhere. And many complaints were made about him and his competence months ago before anyone heard of covid. And he has hired the Christine Blasey Ford lawyers Debra Katz and Lisa Banks.
Italy-UK team hopes to have COVID-19 vaccine in September
Also, forgive me if this was discussed here yesterday, but Santa Clara County identified 3 additional SARS-2 deaths from 2/6, 2/17, and 3/6. Not sure if these will prove to be travel-related; if not, this may indicate community spread was already underway by mid-January.
Near my daughter's house is a lovely park with very pretty walking trails. Lots of flowers. I believe the Township owns it. High income area.
Anyway, this weekend they put barricades across all of the entrances. People just walked around them and went in. Lots of people.
I think we've entered the civil disobedience stage.
Farmer
No politician could or should survive a moment like that if the public learned of it. I wonder if they will.
How many people's lives must be lost to satiate the MSM lust for spiting Trump?
any sprezzo
@Kyjo 9:18
My understanding is that they where community spread. That may stem from fact that is was unknown that they had the disease until their blood was tested post mortem. For obvious reasons they can't ask them if they had contact with anyone who had travelled overseas.
Blogger gilbar said...
"Was he INTENTIONALLY TRYING to increase deaths? You be the judge"
A self-appointed one man death panel.
If you want your orchids to re bloom, just water minimally in winter and in spring start putting the orchid roots in their container in another container of water and let it sit there for about an hour once a week. Never let it sit in water longer than that. It likes full sun, well in my climate anyway. I’ve got several beautiful orchids of all sizes. Easy Peasy.
Man, I really wish I had a blog where I could post at 10:45 am and then post again at 8:20 pm and watch all the pageviews and ad impressions pile up while the commenters do the heavy lifting.
Such is life.
@Anne-I-Am,
Since most of the Bay Area counties are now ordering everyone to wear a mask (not Santa Clara, oddly enough), I pulled a surgical mask out of my small supply. For those of us who must wear glasses to correct nearsightedness or astigmatism, it’s quite a nuisance. All that fog! I have to keep readjusting to make it wrap around the bridge of my nose more tightly, which simultaneously interferes with the positioning of my glasses. But, I will heroically endure. Lives are at stake!
Farmer
I don’t remember it too well. It was quite unlike the movie as I kinda sorta recall. I liked the book.
BARDA is a corrupt repository of political hacks doling out expensive favors. A previous head under Obama was banned by Congress about submitting testimony because she had previously mislead them multiple times.
Apparently Cuomo should have looked to hire a Labradoodle Breeder to advise him on health care policy. Perhaps he would not have required nursing homes to admit or re-admit Covid-19 positive residents. Actually, he could have asked any random 10 year old about that one.
"I bet 50% of the deaths are from nursing home residents"
Looks like you're gonna be close.
Anyway, clearly we had to shut down all of sports, when not a single athlete had experienced any complications in the whole world, to protect sick old people in nursing homes.
That bit of alarmist logic will puzzle future generations.
@Andy, I’m inclined to think that these were victims of community spread, but the LA Times has an article I think about the first death, and she was apparently quite the jetsetter. Time will tell.
"BOMBSHELL: If panic peddlers were right, Wisconsin should be a pile of smoldering ash right now"
https://www.theblaze.com/steve-deace/wisconsin-primary-voters-coronavirus
My avocado tree actually produced some avocados for the first time last year. I got about 15 avocados off of it. It's a Fuerte avocado and it's getting ready to put out a LOT of blossoms because of the heavy rains that we've been having in Southern California recently. Unfortunately, the avocados won't be ripe until about November.
"America’s Middle Class Gets Hit With Office Jobs Disappearing"
Serves'm right. More "marginal businesses."
And we didn't know how bad this plague was gonna be, so we had to do it. We just had to.
And what's a billion dollars to U Michigan anyway?
@bagoh20, my greenie socialist public school teacher aunt shared a breathless article about 19 new cases involving poll workers or voters a Nineteen! Two weeks from now I expect 10x that number will be added to Wisconsin’s death toll.
Coronavirus: Debunking The Hydroxychloroquine 'Controversy' (Dr. Chris Martenson)
I do know that a bus driver in Detroit got covid from a coughing/spewing passenger and later died. But a bus is a really confined space.
I'd like to see some stats/evidence on any cases of someone getting it by being a customer in a grocery or walking in the park or some other incidental interaction. Yes, some grocery workers have tested positive, and some restaurant take-out people too, but is there any evidence they got it in the workplace and not somewhere else?
In short, just how many cases of real "community" transmission are there?
"If panic peddlers were right"
That's funny right there.
Except, they peddled the greatest disaster in American economic history.
For nothing.
Hospital near me just administered plasma from a recovered covid-19 patient to two other very sick patients as part of a clinical trial run by the Mayo Clinic. Both patients had been on respirators for almost a week and were in their 60's. Both were off the respirators within three days and out of the ICU a few days later.
Let's keep our fingers crossed.
Beware the purveyors of panic, pessimism and despair.
When does Arthur get his new deck?
Beware the purveyors of panic, pessimism and despair.
You're 2/3 right.
Inga: I passed it on to my wife.
Re sliders which was originally on fox, then went over the scifi channel, i guess the first time that the miltiverse was explored in long form.
So long as we're caterwauling about the shutdown, given that Trump declared a national emergency, supported the shutdown, distributed the guides for reopening to the state, and publicly criticized Georgia's government for opening too soon, what share of the blame does he get for the economic consequences?
@loudog, my parents’ crooked little avocado tree produced fruit for the first time this year. Big, fat avocados, also Fuertas. I got to try the last one just before before the state stay-at-home order.
My small town in NJ with less than 7,000 residents has 87 cases and 13 COVID deaths. I can't find deaths broken out by age at the town level. Here are the COVID-19 deaths in my county, Somerset County, NJ, by age:
18-29 - 1 death
30-49 - 7 deaths
50-64 - 17 deaths
65-79 - 54 deaths
80+ - 87 deaths
This is what this amateur observer understands to work the best, according to the reports:
Onset of significant symptoms: hydroxychloroquine-plus
Really severe cases: remdesivir
And another study showed that instead of intubation full-scale ventilators, using less intrusive and vigorous positive-pressure equipment, such as CPAPs
70% Of Minnesota COVID-19 Deaths In Nursing Homes
113 of Minnesota’s 143 COVID-19 related deaths have occured in nursing homes or other care facilities for the elderly as of Tuesday
https://alphanewsmn.com/covid-19-nursing-homes/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=covid-19-nursing-homes
Kyjo:
I eschew masks. I just went to the grocery and wrapped a sweatshirt around my face to get in. Once in, off it went. And the store was a mixed bag (more non-Trump voters). I think people are just starting to ignore the Panic! peddlers.
That's right, J., you're the one who believes that hopelessness is a virtue.
@Kyjo:
@loudog, my parents’ crooked little avocado tree produced fruit for the first time this year. Big, fat avocados, also Fuertas. I got to try the last one just before before the state stay-at-home order.
My grandparents had a huge avocado tree on their property. When my grandmother would show up with a brown bag full, it was always a treat.
Truth be told --
In a lot of place I see people with masks.
I see them with masks covering just their mouths.
I see them with masks covering just their chins or necks.
I saw one today who kept pulling it over her nose, then pulling it down below her mouth and then up to the mouth and then back down again, and on and on.
@Mark:
That's right, J., you're the one who believes that hopelessness is a virtue.
Not quite. I believe that hopefulness is an overrated virtue. The one that doesn't belong is pessimism.
Peter Hitchens:"Why do people associate reasonable pessimism about public affairs (or anything else) with personal unhappiness? On the contrary, the pessimist is seldom disappointed, sometimes pleasantly surprised and usually well-equipped for the world as it is. He or she also opens another bottle of wine, or buys his round, earlier than the 'optimist' who thinks the glass is 'always half-full' . Of course it's always half-empty, unless something is actually being poured into it at the time. Think about it . Would you rather have your journey to an unknown destination planned by a pessimist or an optimist? I have no doubt which I would choose."
Shorter Peter Hitchens:"Pessimism is the key to happiness. I don't know how anyone manages without it."
“So long as we're caterwauling about the shutdown, given that Trump declared a national emergency, supported the shutdown, distributed the guides for reopening to the state, and publicly criticized Georgia's government for opening too soon, what share of the blame does he get for the economic consequences?”
UNFAIR!
Actually, perfectly fair. Inga and I have been asking the same thing. I asked long ago who persuaded Trump into leading the plot to get a Trump. The Trumpkins squealed like stuck pigs.
Trump calling out the reporter for asking about Bright’s “gifts” being utilized in his new job was amazing “Do you know him? Do you know about his gifts?”
Trump is smarter than he seems
Texas Tribune
Abbott stressed in the interviews that he is seeking approval from medical advisers on the business reopenings and that they will reopen under new standards to slow the spread of the coronavirus. He also suggested his announcement's implementation could vary by county, depending on how prevalent the virus is in each place.
"We're gonna be making an announcement opening so many different types of businesses, where you're gonna be able to go to a hair salon, you're gonna be able to go to any type of retail establishment you want to go to, different things like that, with a structure in place that will ensure that we slow the spread of the coronavirus," Abbott told Lubbock radio host Chad Hasty, adding that businesses won't be "fully opened, but ... will be opened in strategic ways, in ways that are approved by doctors to make sure we contain the coronavirus."
Sounds like I might be wearing a mask when I get my next haircut. What will be interesting is when will the travel restrictions between Texas and Louisiana get lifted.
Dictator Cuomo has ordered everyone to wear masks. The local dairy store where I buy my milk in environmentally correct returnable glass bottles - because the milk tastes better, not because they're environmentally correct- had a sign on the door saying because of Dictator Cuomo's orders all customers inside store must be wearing masks. 24% of the customers inside were in compliance. Wisely, the checkout clerk didn't order the rest of us to depart.
Going through Walmart, which didn't have the sign, mask wear was almost up to 50%, almost. Correct wearing of a protective mask was well less than half that. At this point in the great pandemic panic, mask wear is nothing more and nothing less than a talisman except in healthcare and long term care facilities.
The uk has accepted an increasingly panoptic state along with the suppression of personal and economic liberty.
Male pattern baldness has its advantages. I bought good quality electric hair clippers 15 years ago. I last we went to the barber two years ago. Before that I went once every three months.
@Farmer,
Avocados have become such a fad foodie thing (think: avocado toast), but a good avocado is always a delight. I particularly enjoy them sliced on a BLT sandwich.
And that the cops let certain groups rape children while they charge people for Facebook posts. The British p9lice charged over 3,000 people for Facebook posts last year.
@Ken B:
You’re lucky. I have to go once a month or it starts shagging out. My better half keeps offering a trim, but I’m picky. I first saw the woman I continue to use when I was 19.
Oh, we had the Bobs come visit our work.
Cool!
Here in Arlington, population 240,000 in 26 sq. miles, we have had about 663 positive test results, 116 hospitalizations, and 24 deaths.
But beyond that, there is practically no data. No breakdown by zip code or neighborhood. And although we are near the top in wealthiest counties in the nation, with many one-percenters and a budget that exceeds that of many nations, our progressive government regime does not provide any information itself. They only refer you to the Virginia state website.
So who the hell knows what the real picture is?
hydroxychloroquine is a phony controversy, pushed by the DNC/media. It might work. There are some anecdotal evidence of its effectiveness. Risk is low. Its a 40+year old drug, the few side effects or known and manageable. Even those side effects, must likely occur in long term users. An international survey of Doctors found Hydroxy was the most popular treatment for COVID 19. Doctors from around the globe. Swiss pharmaceutical giant Sandoz has been awarded the approval to do studies in the US, by the FDA.
So what exactly is the controversy?
Its the ministry of silly walks, which arent so silly, when one looks at the consequences.
"Pessimism is the key to happiness. I don't know how anyone manages without it."
And the people at work have called me "Eeyore."
@Kyjo:
Avocados have become such a fad foodie thing (think: avocado toast), but a good avocado is always a delight. I particularly enjoy them sliced on a BLT sandwich.
I might be misremembering, but it seems like they were considered somewhat of an oddity back in the 80s.
I bought good quality electric hair clippers 15 years ago
Cutting the back -- if you're doing it yourself -- is the tricky thing.
Then again, living alone, who's going to see the back of my head?
hydroxychloroquine is a phony controversy, pushed by the DNC/media. It might work.
They will blame Trump for it's non-use and any resulting deaths. If he hadn't promoted it, after all, there would be no controversy and doctors would all be eager to try it.
@Anne-I-Am,
I share your impulse to eschew the mask, hence I've waited till now to do so. There is some good scientific evidence in favor of masks helping ease respiratory virus epidemics, with plain old surgical masks not terribly under-performing N95s, especially when considering comfort and ease of use. (I don't think they've even begun to study the effectiveness of homemade cloth masks, but don't let that stop your Facebook network from virtue-signalling.) As I haven't been hanging out in enclosed or crowded spaces (like, you know, NYC subways), I'm not sure how much effect it will have. Maybe I'm being naive, but I'm choosing to see this as a step toward easing up on other restrictions sooner than later, so I'll wear the damn thing to 7-Eleven and the grocery store in the meantime.
So what exactly is the controversy?
4/22/20, 10:03 PM
Trump had good things to say about it.
Also, it's cheap. No money for the drug companies.
Its the ministry of silly walks, which arent so silly, when one looks at the consequences.
More like the Twit Olympics, i.e. "Upper Class Twit of the Year," where the contestants shoot themselves in the head.
victims of the Left's war on women
-Svetlana Lokhova, Russian historian
-Dr. Judy Mikovits AIDS/HIV research pioneer
they would rather destroy you than merely silence you
Yes that one works, as well.
"“You want to go to work?” Mr. Cuomo replied. “Go take a job as an essential worker.”"
No more "marginal businesses." Shut'm down. Serves'm right. Shoulda known better.
I can't argue the pros and cons of that drug. I do know that if it turns out to be ineffective, Trump and his supporters will accept the clinical evidence. Compare this with how the Democrats have accepted the evidence that Trump did not collude with Russia. I'm sure most of them still believe it.....This drug needs a catchy nickname. Who wants to waste their lives learning how to spell it.
oh.
Classic DC scandal. The light's are on, but nobody's home.
@Farmer,
I don't know about the prevailing perceptions of avocado in the '80s, but when I lived on the East Coast for 11 years in the 2000s, avocados were confined to guacamole.
Now we need to flatten the unemployment curve
New model up from IHME. Total U.S. deaths up to about 67000 from 61000. But that is after they revised downward a week or so ago from about 68000. Bottoming out has shifted about 10 days or so.
Meanwhile, worldometers is showing about 48000 deaths (confirmed and unconfirmed) to date.
That think is like devils peak lin close encounters.
‘Closing borders is ridiculous’: the epidemiologist behind Sweden’s controversial coronavirus strategy
If anyone's been following what's going on in Sweden, Nature published an interview with Anders Tegnell yesterday. The title's not my favorite, but it's a pretty good overview of Sweden's strategy and the assumptions behind it. There is one response I'd like to point out.
What evidence was this approach based on?
It is difficult to talk about the scientific basis of a strategy with these types of disease, because we do not know much about it and we are learning as we are doing, day by day. Closedown, lockdown, closing borders — nothing has a historical scientific basis, in my view. We have looked at a number of European Union countries to see whether they have published any analysis of the effects of these measures before they were started and we saw almost none.
"...what share of the blame does he get for the economic consequences?"
He gets his share. Can you imagine the courage it would take to be the President, and to buck all the "experts", the media, the Democratic party and every mouthpiece in the blogosphere even if you believed you were 90% right that it was better to buck them all. I believe that Trump simply trusted the experts because he knew he didn't have the depth of knowledge to make that call. The cost of being wrong on that was just too scary. I think the response we did will turn out in the long run to have been a mistake in scale and focus, but I don't think any American in Trump's place would have chosen differently. Trump is human, and his grandfather died from Spanish flu. The way the pandemic has played out in the fearful minds of the public and the media left no real political choice to do anything other than what we did, unfortunately.
This was sold as so novel that ordinary thinking had to be abandoned, which is why we heard over and over that "this is not the flu", as if that was some kind of argument that ended the debate. In most parts of the country, the flu would have or even has killed more so far this season than Covid-19, so how does such a devastating response make sense all of a sudden?
As I lamented before, fear changes the way our mind works so much that we are essentially unable to be reasoned with or convinced of anything other than reacting to the threat, and only one threat a time can be taken seriously.
did one of the authors of the "study" saying Hydroxychloroquine doesnt work at VA hospitals get research grant from Gilead, that's making a competitor drug?
does it make a difference if that Idaho mommy who got arrested may have arranged for it to happen as a protest?
"Anyone ever read Susan Orlean's The Orchid Thief?"
No, but I've seen Adaptation.
Veterans Affairs’ Robert Wilkie on yesterday’s hydroxychloroquine study: "That’s an observational study. It’s not a clinical study ... We know the drug has been working on middle-age and younger veterans. And the gov of NY was just in the Oval Office yesterday asking for more" MSNBC
Sweden is expected to peak in mid-May with 250 deaths per day, and bottom out end of June, with 10600 total deaths.
Known Unknown:
No, but I've seen Adaptation.
Terrific film, and I'm not much of a Meryl Streep fan. But I am a huge fan of Spike Jonze and Charlie Kaufman.
Farmer
There is lots of evidence that closing borders works! History it’s called. Several towns in the Black Death survived unscathed by keeping their border closed. Other examples abound.
But I will read the interview.
Dennis Haysbert has got to be real happy in these Allstate commercials where people see him in public and don't know his real name, calling him by Allstate's stupid tag line instead.
I can no longer go to my favorite baseball team's SBNation blog because of the overwhelming sense of doom and fearfulness of playing a game in Arizona without fans present. They are the E. Emmanuel types -- we can't do anything for 12-18 months until there's a vaccine. Complete drama. Ugh.
We knew him as david palmer for six years or so, he was jonas blaine for three after that.
In my small circle, I'm a leader, reluctantly but inescapably a decision maker for many people's lives and livelihoods. Even though I disagreed with the opinion of my government, popular opinion, my employees, my family, and my friends, I soon found it impossible to take that tact anywhere. If I fought on that hill, I would have died there. I would have been attacked from all sides, destroyed financially, maybe arrested, and probably lost the respect and even love of friends and family if I acted in accordance with my true beliefs based on the evidence I spent hundreds of hours following and analyzing. Even if I turned out vindicated in the end, it would have been too late, and in most cases ignored, or dismissed anyway. It was just asking too much, so I played the Covid theater in my life as much as I must, which is a lot. Now we really are all in this together, the cost that is.
@bagoh20:
This was sold as so novel that ordinary thinking had to be abandoned, which is why we heard over and over that "this is not the flu", as if that was some kind of argument that ended the debate. In most parts of the country, the flu would have or even has killed more so far this season than Covid-19, so how does such a devastating response make sense all of a sudden?
I think most of what you wrote is pretty fair, which means it will be difficult to pin the economic consequences on a specific target given the broad base of support for the action.
To address the questions you raised, I don't see any argument that "ordinary thinking had to be abandoned." When you're faced with very little reliable historical or clinical information of a novel virus that is contagious, can be spread by asymptomatic or presymptomatic people, and will result in hospitalization, ICU, and/or death for some subset of those infected, you basically have three options: containment (keep it fro spreading), suppression (keep new infections down) or mitigation (allow a controlled outbreak but slow the transmission).
Once we had community transmission, containment wasn't an option. Because we didn't have the capacity to test, quarantine, and trace, suppression wasn't an option. The US and Sweden are basically have the same strategy but are employing different (less restrictive) tactics.
I won't cut my own hair, but I will play around with color. I found that while I cannot buy professional color on Amazon without a beautician's license, I CAN buy it on EBay. $20 and a couple of hours. Tomorrow, I will add some highlights. The woman who cuts and colors my hair will get less custom from me because I can color my own hair every other go-round.
I asked her to come to my house or let me go to hers just for a cut (no color). She said no, which I understood and yet didn't like. So now she will make a lower income from me (and how many others?) because of her compliance with Governor Nuisance's refusal to allow common sense interactions.
$20 and a couple of hours vs. $200 and a couple of hours. That is a no-brainer.
Whats the logic behind restricting professional color, if you were doing it for a living, maybe but for personal use.
Then again this is the state that managed to screw up the pot business, so abandon logic.
@Ken B:
Farmer
There is lots of evidence that closing borders works! History it’s called. Several towns in the Black Death survived unscathed by keeping their border closed. Other examples abound.
Preaching to the choir. Reporting has suggested that closing the border with Europe was floated as an idea around the time of the China close, but it was rejected as being too economically disruptive. I'm sure it was a tough call at that time and would have been difficult for anyone to make. But it goes to show how much you're operating in the blind.
The real derelictions in our early response was (1) very slow response and minimizing the threat all of February; (2) testing fiasco. Trump deserves a great deal of the first one. He doesn't really deserve much blame for the second because that was an institutional failure that can't really be linked to any decision he made or action he took. But it's an organizational fact that people tend to get blamed for the failures of those beneath them. One of the worst things about being president is there's no one above you.
Senator David Palmer, the first African-American president!
Narr
That show went downhill fast, and I'm going to bed
If she's drawing the CARES-plus unemployment, which was opened up to self-employeds, she's probably making a lot more than $200. She could do it under the table (not report the income), but she might be happy to leave well-enough alone.
The relief packages, while imperative for the survival of many government-shuttered businesses, have perversely incentivized some people not to work.
Opening sentence in Wikipedia -
Dennis Dexter Haysbert (born June 2, 1954) is an American actor and voice actor. In the U.S. he is known for his appearances in commercials for Allstate Insurance.
Ow. That's GOTTA hurt.
Seriously, i know its been a bakers dozen since he was on 24,
Seen on twitter:
We'll reopen the economy and let you try to earn money again when:
We flatten the curvexxx
We increase testingxxx
We find a vaccinexxx
No one is sickxxx
The election is over and you welcome our new green socialist utopia
Oh goodness.
Sebastian and I have been saying Trump's bowing to pressure was politically astute and the wrong policy. We both said as much 5-6 weeks ago.
And here come Smug, Concern Troll, and Royal ass Inga to pretend they found a gotcha. Trump deserves some blame. However, every other elected official would have been as bad or worse. And none of them would have the stones to press forward with re-opening.
I see people driving cars, and walking dogs, while wearing masks. What a bunch of dumb fucks! I don’t wear a mask, and I don’t plan to attend a protest, but I will openly resist if the government makes it a crime to show my face.
"Dennis Dexter Haysbert (born June 2, 1954) is an American actor and voice actor. In the U.S. he is known for his appearances in commercials for Allstate Insurance."
It is very bad to steal Jobu's rum.
Update:
................Cases.....Deaths...Deaths/M
Michigan:...33,936......2813......283
Sweden:.....16,004......1937......192
Sweden started out in mid-March far above Michigan in cases and deaths.
For some reason Sweden's daily deaths jump from day to day by a factor of 10X both up and down. Probably something to do with how they collect the data.
"However, every other elected official would have been as bad or worse."
This is my theory. The CDC f-ed up big time and anyone who was in charge at that moment was beholden to their incompetence.
True, she probably doesn't need the money right now. But the lockdown will end, and the extra money will come to an end. Then she will need her customers back.
I shouldn't be so hard on her. Not everyone is as contrarian as I am. Not everyone can do the math, so to speak, in order to make their own assessment of risk; and so they depend on the panic peddlers. And are therefore panicked.
Heck, even in my profession, I find that many, many of my colleagues don't really understand the underlying science.
"Pessimism is the key to happiness."
I resolved to try this path to happiness once, but I gave up because I knew it was certain to fail.
Very bad indeed, that goes backaways he goes all the way to back to a recurring role on buck rogers as the helmsman 40 years ago.
@bagoh20:
For some reason Sweden's daily deaths jump from day to day by a factor of 10X both up and down. Probably something to do with how they collect the data.
Depending on how they organize their data, a day's death is likely how many were reported that day, not how many actually died that day, so a lag is expected.
I knew a neurologist who wore a bicycle helmet whenever he drove a car. I think he understood risk without really understanding risk.
But his behavior makes more sense to me than the people who wear masks in their cars.
p.s. On Sweden, there's also the issue that a strategy successfully deployed in Sweden does not mean that another country could expect a similar outcome from the same strategy. Differences in population groups, age structure, prevalence of various health issues, etc. Social distancing was still recommended but left to essentially voluntary behavior, with some closures and restrictions on movement. Another big factor is that a huge portion of Sweden's population lives alone.
"When you're faced with very little reliable historical or clinical information of a novel virus that is contagious, can be spread by asymptomatic or presymptomatic people, and will result in hospitalization, ICU, and/or death for some subset of those infected, you basically have three options: containment (keep it fro spreading), suppression (keep new infections down) or mitigation (allow a controlled outbreak but slow the transmission)."
So how is that novel? It infects and kills like the flu with all those ugly characteristics still there, for which we follow a fourth option: Better than nothing is a high standard". For most of the country, what makes this disease worse? It's not deaths?
curiosity id dead
@bagoh20:
So how is that novel? It infects and kills like the flu with all those ugly characteristics still there, for which we follow a fourth option: Better than nothing is a high standard". For most of the country, what makes this disease worse? It's not deaths?
It's the virus that was novel, so we had zero information about it. There were all kinds of unknowns in regards to its transmission and activity in the body. The reason we treated it differently from the flu is because we have antibodies to the flu, we have a long experience with the flu so we have tons of historical and clinical data, we have vaccines for the flu, and we have antivirals for the flu. Also, incubation for the flu is only a few days, so you become symptomatic pretty quickly after getting infect. This appeared to have a longer incubation time and could be transmitted before symptoms showed or even symptoms never showed. It was all of these uncertainties that required a coordinated public health response.
Sweden is not much different than Belgium, France, Spain, Netherlands, UK, Italy, except those places all have much higher death rates with tougher restrictions.
I'm just looking at data and simple numbers that are not complicated, but lead me to question things that seem to be taken for granted.
@bagoh20:
What is your basis for claiming that they are "not much different than Belgium, France, Spain, Netherlands, UK, Italy" among all the potentially relevant variables?
I get what you are saying Farmer, but a flu that's killing twice or three or more times as many seems like it should get more attention shouldn't it? Otherwise we are just reacting to the unknown and noting else, which is like running full speed in the dark.
Dennis Haysbert also had roles in episodes of "The White Shadow", "Lou Grant", "Laverne and Shirley", and "The Incredible Hulk". He even had a voice role on "Galactica 1980".
Hope for the worst
To put your question is a simpler form: what makes Sweden so different from all those places that would explain it's better experience?
@Farmer 11:18pm
All of that's true, but obviously it doesn't mean that something similar to Sweden's more relaxed approach couldn't have been done elsewhere. Bear in mind, too, that exactly the same arguments have been (and continue to be) made there in favor of lockdown as are made here, and all without the benefit of any direct scientific evidence that lockdowns are actually effective for the purpose of "flattening the curve" to prevent the healthcare system from being overloaded.
We've never taken this approach before. It's guesswork and assumptions and inferences. We've got a bunch of shamans demanding that we dance the rain dance, and when it starts raining, that's the proof it works. Meanwhile the tribe over there hasn't been dancing, and even though they're getting about as much rain as we are, the squaws there are squawking that they should really be rain dancing, too.
And the point isn't that Sweden did something that worked much better, but that it didn't sacrifice anything for not going draconian, which is a huge sacrifice.
So dr. Brights work with (or for) the who ), consider this in light of the fact he was under scrutiny as early as january
“ But his behavior makes more sense to me than the people who wear masks in their cars.”
I'm sure it does so let me explain.
It can be tricky putting on and taking off some masks. If you are making a short trip it might be easier and safer to do that at home.
If you were sharing a ride and dropped someone off it might be easier to just leave it on. Similarly if you are picking someone up.
If you were in a crowd you might not want to put the working surface of the mask on your car seat.
@bagoh20:
I get what you are saying Farmer, but a flu that's killing twice or three or more times as many seems like it should get more attention shouldn't it? Otherwise we are just reacting to the unknown and noting else, which is like running full speed in the dark
Small point: it isn't a flu. We've only been getting a few months, and there are a huge number of potentially confounding variables. It's too early to start making conclusive judgments one way or another. On top of the data collecting and the number crunching and the analysis, we're also doing healthcare delivery. We basically have been running in the dark, because there is no other choice.
To put your question is a simpler form: what makes Sweden so different from all those places that would explain it's better experience?
Around 50% of its population lives alone. That's the highest rate in all of Europe. Since being in a home with multiple people is an ideal environment for spreading it, this confers a huge benefit on Sweden.
Here's a novel fucking thought:
Maybe before we go with the "burn the whole fucking economy to the ground such that counties, cities, states, hospitals, universities, small businesses, and large businesses will be lucky to have revenue because people will be flat broke strategy"...
We might want to be sure the virus we're dealing with would do worse.
How about that?
curious all around
@Kyjo:
To put your question is a simpler form: what makes Sweden so different from all those places that would explain it's better experience?
"Lockdown" is just a colloquial word that's been used. It's basically prison terminology where you confine all of the prisoners to their cell for a safety or security issue. That's not even an accurate description of what we are doing. The US and Sweden are pursuing the same strategy: mitigation. Slow the spread and allow the outbreak to continue in a relatively controlled manner. What's different is that we are doing a stricter version.
Swedes are expected to maintain social distancing and work from home. They are expected to avoid large crowds. Schools for over 16 are closed. It's the same strategy with tactical differences.
Nyman, Synchronizing https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TN3tkMIOMx0
@Birkel:
We might want to be sure the virus we're dealing with would do worse.
How about that?
And how can we "be sure" of that given that there was a couple months worth of data, mostly from China, and some coming in from Italy, and both countries were significant isolating their populations?
coincidence of accident
burn the whole fucking economy to the ground such that counties, cities, states, hospitals, universities, small businesses, and large businesses will be lucky to have revenue because people will be flat broke strategy"
Panic! Hysteria! Alarmist!
Farmer is exactly right. In Sweden upper schools are closed as are universities, large gatherings are banned, nursing homes have very strict entry rules etc. like much of the USA and Canada. Not everywhere is Michigan.
Oh I know, let's just print another 10 trillion dollars because every time countries have done that sort of spending in the past, no bad effects are ever felt. Right?
But people would already have done less of what we banned. Correct. Less. But not zero. And the transition to a more normal state of affairs would have been easier from a slow economy than from a stopped economy.
If this were a book plot in which China released this disease to cripple the West, what precisely would be happening differently?
Denialist! Ecoidiot!
Oh, Smug, if only your question didn't get precisely at the truth.
We would not have been sure, so the government should not have ordered the destruction of the US economy.
I found a picture of Ken (left) and Farmer
We would not have been sure, so the government should not have ordered the destruction of the US economy.
I'm surprised at you. You're not usually prone to such histrionic declarations.
Yes he is JF, yes he is.
@Farmer,
I get tired of typing "stay-at-home," "shelter-in-place," "mass mandatory semi-quarantine," etc. "Lockdown" is quicker, and I don't think I'm really muddying the waters by using it. Do you think "shutdown" better conveys the meaning? "Social distancing" is, on the other hand, being used actively to muddy the waters, and constantly at that. Not by you, necessarily, but this is all over the place when I've been talking to friends and family, and reading and watching the news. No, sorry, shutting down all nonessential business is more than just "social distancing." As I've pointed out before, it's more than the strictest aspects of the most successful approaches undertaken during the 1918 pandemic, which are now retroactively deemed "social distancing." But for the sake of argument, sure; the US and Sweden are just on different ends of the same mitigation spectrum. But no one has argued for a strategy of non-mitigation, so this observation is fatuous.
We had to nuke the village fron orbit (just to make sure) in order to save it.
Truly Smug is out of his depth when discussing matters of economics.
40% GDP decline. That's the number to expect. I think it will be worse. For Q3 and Q2 that represents a loss of $4,400,000,000,000 USD of economic activity. No income beside government handouts for more than half the population.
If I am an alarmist it is because people have not realized what has happened.
@Jon Ericson:
I found a picture of Ken (left) and Farmer
Impressive. You must've been on the honor roll in high school.
I give it a C+ Lame, but I'm a Paul Reubens' fan.
Ken B is a liar and a Concern Troll.
It's not a town!
It's the name of a funeral home.
Re “lockdown “
We lack a good word for what this is. Quarantine isn’t quite right, nor is isolation, distancing misses the legal restrictions. I think lockdown is close enough for government work. I guess “mass sequestration” is the most accurate but it’s a non starter as a useable term.
Considering what happened to him the prometheus protocol comes to mind.
I went to my hairstylist two weekends ago. She's taking one client at a time and only on weekends. She's the best. She'll take an hour or more to cut my hair and charge me $15. I tip her $10 on that, although this last sitting I gave her $40.
I have to admit I kind of felt like I was a member of the underground going to a clandestine meeting of the resistance.
@Birkel:
Truly Smug is out of his depth when discussing matters of economics.
I get that it's your whole MO to say anyone who has a different opinion is dumb, out of their depth, ignorant, yada yada yada. It's like a tic for you, so I'll do my best not to take it personally.
That said, and yes I know you will take exception to it, we can use fiscal policy to reduce the shock from the temporary halt of economic activity, which will probably include guaranteeing loans and providing support. Some amount of shoring up of state finances will be necessary. We can also do things like a temporary expansion of benefits. There are a variety of options. The point is we have the financial resources to recover from this and minimize the reverberations.
The conversation is deteriorating. (As my dad used to say when the family dinner conversation veered off in weird directions.)
I think that despite the power-drunk governors, states will begin to reopen because people are fed up. Already in SoCal, some counties have allowed golf courses to open. And a ski resort. I suspect this is the beginning of an avalanche.
Farmer
And we'd be in a better place if Trump had not run gigantic deficits in a boom.
So just how contagious are the asymptomatic types?
They don't cough. They don't sneeze. They don't hack and spit. And if they wash their hands, so long as they don't touch their mouth, etc., it doesn't transmit through the skin, does it?
The just normal inhale and exhale.
So how likely are they to spread it?
Im just trying to bring some facts in the picture. We have a draconian strategy with real downsides and little upside. Being adopted by officials that have a checkered history to be charitable, we have promising treatments being foreclosed and only one option offered. Why is that?
@Ken B:
Re “lockdown “
We lack a good word for what this is. Quarantine isn’t quite right, nor is isolation, distancing misses the legal restrictions. I think lockdown is close enough for government work. I guess “mass sequestration” is the most accurate but it’s a non starter as a useable term.
Enforced distancing, perhaps? Although, the legal restrictions probably have not been that relevant in the grand scheme of things. A sizable portion are likely following the distancing guidelines on their own volition and concern for safety of themselves and those they live with. For what it's worth, the Swedish distancing guidelines are considered an obligation the Swedes are expected to follow. Nordics tend to have an interesting mixture of high individualism and high compliance with authority. The same way we can't reproduce their welfare state and get the same result, we can't reproduce their tactics and get the same result.
McCarthy finally unloads on the recent Senate Intelligence Committee Report
More Media Misdirection on Trump-Russia
ANDREW C. MCCARTHY APRIL 22, 2020
[Re: Republican-Led Review Backs Intelligence Findings on Russian Interference
A new Senate report undercuts claims by President Trump and his allies that Obama-era officials sought to undermine him while investigating Russia’s 2016 election meddling.]
'The headline is an attention-grabber, particularly the subhead. The New York Times breathlessly reports that a Republican-led Senate panel has issued a report that “undercuts claims by President Trump and his allies that Obama-era officials sought to undermine his candidacy by investigating Russia’s 2016 election meddling.”
Naturally, you’re thinking: “That’s it. All Trump’s diatribes about a ‘hoax’ have been the usual claptrap. Even the GOP admits that the Obama administration had good reasons to investigate whether Trump’s campaign was colluding with Russia.”
Except . . . that’s not what the Times story actually says. Carefully parsed, it’s not even what the headline says.
In truth, the story is a nothing-burger. We learn that one of the most useless committees on Capitol Hill, the Senate Intelligence Committee, has issued a 158-page report — festooned with the usual “there are things we can’t tell you” redactions — as a capper to its three-year investigation into a question no one is asking: Did the intelligence community competently conclude that Russia interfered in the 2016 campaign?
No one is asking that question because, for the vast majority of people closely following the collusion caper, that would be like asking whether the Chiefs won the Super Bowl.'
"...So now, the committee that does nothing has released a report about nothing new, which the Times promptly serves up as a bombshell that purportedly undercuts Trump contentions about the Obama administration’s Russia investigation . . . even though the committee report does not actually address the president’s main contention: that Obama intelligence and law-enforcement officials tried to frame Trump for conspiring in Russia’s election meddling.
Par for the course."
https://outline.com/xmDApN
And a ski resort. I suspect this is the beginning of an avalanche.
ISWYDT!
I remember the AIDS paranoia when being in the same room/building/town with an HIV+ person would terrify people.
“ The same way we can't reproduce their welfare state and get the same result, we can't reproduce their tactics and get the same result.”
Yup. Culture is all, and it is organic. You could set up everything just like Denmark in South Africa, laws, schools, architecture, everything but the people, and what you would get wouldn’t resemble Denmark.
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