[I]t will be a totally different ballgame of what happened when we first got hit with it in the beginning of this year. There’ll be several things that’ll be different. Our ability to go out and be able to test, identify, isolate, and contact trace will be orders of magnitude better than what it was just a couple of months ago. In addition, we have a number of clinical trials that are looking at a variety of therapeutic interventions. We hope one or more of them will be available. And importantly, as I mentioned to you many times at these briefings, is that we have a vaccine that’s on track and multiple other candidates.... What we’re going through now is going to be more than just lessons learned; it’s going to be things that we have available to us that we did not have before.Of course, I'm interested in the treatments and vaccines — the new things that we hope will become available. But I'd like to hear more discussion of the "lessons learned." Perhaps it's tactful for Fauci and the rest of the force not to talk about the lessons, but let me go ahead.
It's not just a matter of the President and other government figures getting it through their head that the projections of the epidemiologists are worth acting on early, before people can see or believe we're looking at a catastrophe. We the people are learning the lesson. And some of us have been slow on the uptake. Some remain in denial.
But this months-long mandatory staycation and pausing of the once-vibrant economy are teaching us — most of us — that it's bad to wait and see if it really does look bad. Go with the epidemiologists, and there will be a lot less pain. Next time, the President and the Governors and the mayors will think differently about what burdens and restrictions the people will put up with. And we'll be more impatient — next time around — if our leaders don't act quickly.
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1 – 200 of 344 Newer› Newest»Go with the epidemiologists, and there will be a lot less pain. Next time, the President and the Governors and the mayors will think differently about what burdens and restrictions the people will put up with. And we'll be more impatient — next time around — if our leaders don't act quickly.
We need to quarantine people who have been exposed or people who feel ill sooner. Locking everyone down cannot be the new normal.
By the fall we'll also have better data: What was the death rate? What are the symptoms? Who is most susceptible? What treatments worked? How many people are still out of work from March/April?
This was one of the points I made yesterday... All past is prologue. This is a real-world dry run. Hopefully it will prepare us better for phase 2 and potentially help eliminate or reduce or limit future pandemics.
Of course if it doesn't coincide with orangeman fantastic, then it's a hoax that will usher in the green New deal
What epidemiologists? You mean the one international organization tasked with exactly this role? The ones from the WHO that were saying it couldn’t pass from human to human? It looks to me like Trump acted pretty damn early! There is no historical example of a President doing MORE or doing anything EARLIER to deal with a pandemic. This is the best response we have managed to marshal. Sure you can like Slow Joe shout that we could have done better but where were the PUBLIC voices at the time and what were THEY saying?
"Go with the epidemiologists, and there will be a lot less pain. "
And compare said pain to the economic shutdown that will cripple the economy and cause a lot of pain too.
Arguably the best epidemiologist in the country, Dr. John Ioannadis from Stanford, says don't make rash decisions on unreliable data. His piece was written 2 weeks ago. He was right then, he is right now.
Why not "go" with him?
I think you people have no comprehension of how blind we are currently flying through the pandemic. It's worse than a partial panel situation in a naturally-aspirated bug smasher flying in the Rocky mountains.
https://www.wcgclinical.com/covid-19/
Ann I work in clinical research and am supporting clinical trials for new therapies & Vaccines on COVID-19. Wanted to share a resource center for people interested in the status of research - where it's happening, how many trials are running (~400 as of today), and where the research is occuring and who is driving it.
Something to know: This is the 3rd major (at least) Coronavirus in the last 15 years. SARS and MERS were first but didn't become pandemic. My point is simply this - we obviously need therapies targeted to this classification of virus. And this pandemic is going to drive this forward.
For what it's worth: These are the types of events that tell me humankind will continue to do well facing society-level threats. Because when something like this happens our people, industries, and scientists turn on a dime to define the problem and build the solution(s) in amazing turnaround times. And our ability to do that continues to advance.
We'll reevaluate globalism (e.g. shortages), end immigration reform (e.g. spreaders), control social contagion (e.g. press, media, social platforms), mitigate collateral damage (e.g. disparate impact), and close "clinics" in order to manage resources and reduce excess deaths - every life matters.
"[I]t will be a totally different ballgame"
Because people will not accept a crippling shutdown.
The obvious alternative is targeted quarantines of the risk groups, sensible adjustments by everyone else, and going back to work and school to save America.
"But this months-long mandatory staycation and pausing of the once-vibrant economy..."
I am not trying to be unhelpful here.
I would like to point out that even simple word choices can affect how people respond to the situation.
"Staycation" sounds benign, except it implies the means to stay home 'vacation-style'. When you've been laid off or are without a paycheck 'staycation' isn't really a word for it, and using it gives the impression that those who have been hit hard aren't really being considered in the mix.
"Pausing" implies it will all come back just as it was before 'pausing'. For many people, that is not going to happen. Small business will close, debts will pile up, the process will be chaotic and stressful for the ones lucky enough to be there after the 'pause'.
Althouse is typically precise about wording, and that is why moments like this rub my fur the wrong way.
I am trying to be less defensive, but would like to see a bit less off-handedness when looking at the big picture. To be all in this together needs all the help it can get.
I am Laslo.
By the fall we will have already recorded our first gunshot deaths from COVID-19.
"But this months-long mandatory staycation and pausing of the once-vibrant economy..."
Like I said, a Well Off White People's disease. You're certainly not hurting too bad.
What Mike said. Trump created the pandemic task force in January, while he was being impeached. He imposed what were pretty weak travel restrictions at the end of January, and was derided as a racist and xenophobe. What was WHO doing in January? Proclaiming that the virus was not human to human transferable. What I've learned from the pandemic so far is that the MSM and much of the political class seems to be in the pocket of the CCP and I think its because of straight out monetary concerns. They're bought and paid for.
The Prof is another person who has never had to make payroll.
It looks to me like Trump acted pretty damn early! There is no historical example of a President doing MORE or doing anything EARLIER to deal with a pandemic.
I agree. The SARS and MERS viruses may have been too lethal to proliferate. High mortality does not make a good parasite. By fall, hopefully, we will have a vaccine and know how well the drugs work. If it comes back, we will be better prepared. CDC and FDA did NOT do a good job on this.
I agree, also, that selective social distancing will be better.
“We need to quarantine people who have been exposed or people who feel ill sooner. Locking everyone down cannot be the new normal.”
And how will that be accomplished when people don’t realize they’ve been exposed? People shed virus even before they are symptomatic. Simplistic solutions are not helping.
Althouse is typically precise about wording, and that is why moments like this rub my fur the wrong way.
I am trying to be less defensive, but would like to see a bit less off-handedness when looking at the big picture. To be all in this together needs all the help it can get.
I agree 100%. I thought the same about the choosing of the words "staycation" and "pause".
Althouse is in a perfect position to be philosophical about the current circumstances. She is well-off, retired, married to a most handy fellow, doesn't like travel, and enjoys quiet walks around Madison. As long as people keep the local Whole Foods market stocked....oh, well, hmm.
"things...available to us that we did not have before."
Antibodies in much of the population, for one thing. I hope.
Why isn't additional information about who is likely to be more vulnerable a good thing? There has been a lot of discussion about differences between men and women, and possible reasons behind that. Racial differences might just be a proxy for other factors, like diabetes, which has higher incidence among blacks, but maybe not. More information is better if it helps make informed decisions.
“Listen to the experts” at this point becomes political. Which experts? Not all epidemiologists agree we should “pause” the economy, probably because such a “pause” is unprecedented and every previous “event” that led to immediate mass unemployment ALSO led to recession and or depression of the economy. Every single prior time AND the worst prior spike in unemployment was one fourth the magnitude of the current spike. Maybe the experts we need to consult are economists who agree 100% that economically speaking we are in new territory and have no idea how the economy will respond once the “pause” ends. This is not a minor point and our response could doom far more than the 200,000 deaths predicted for COVID. Poverty kills too. I’m amazed at the arrogance of those who shrug off the danger of a deep recession, especially after the stupid “Stimulus” that actually provides incentives for workers to stay home instead of going back to work. That is exactly the same stupid response that made the Obama recession last so long and recover so slowly (ie extending unemployment benefits to 99 weeks and promoting “fun employment”).
For his concern about this very real danger, Trump is said to be in favor of “euthanizing the greatest generation” by Morning Joe. This is known as unhelpful where I come from.
“We need to quarantine people who have been exposed or people who feel ill sooner. Locking everyone down cannot be the new normal.”
And how will that be accomplished when people don’t realize they’ve been exposed? People shed virus even before they are symptomatic. Simplistic solutions are not helping.
I agree simplistic solutions are not helping, but lock everyone in their home is the most simplistic solution of all.
When someone presents as ill, target that area. Get them in self isolation fast. Tell the local doctors to be on the lookout. You know, the things we do when there are other communicable diseases breaking out.
Do you think blanket lockdowns can be the new normal, Inga?
"We need to quarantine people who have been exposed or people who feel ill sooner."
To the extent we can identify them and they show symptoms, sure. But there will be some spread among asymptomatic carriers--not a problem for nearly everyone under 50.
"Locking everyone down cannot be the new normal."
And doesn't need to be if people at risk are out of the way.
“Antibodies in much of the population, for one thing. I hope.”
And access to widespread antibody testing.
“Do you think blanket lockdowns can be the new normal, Inga?”
No.
You think we'll have a shortage of 'experts' next time?
“I agree simplistic solutions are not helping, but lock everyone in their home is the most simplistic solution of all.”
It’s not simplistic at all. There is hard science behind the concept. And it’s temporary, people need to be more patient.
"But this months-long mandatory staycation and pausing of the once-vibrant economy are teaching us — most of us — that it's bad to wait and see if it really does look bad. Go with the epidemiologists, and there will be a lot less pain."
No, there wont.
The economy destroying power of the "staycation and pausing" comes from its length, not from the amount of people sick during it. Imposing this in Feb would have cut the deaths, but it wouldn't cut the time it takes. Actually, it would have taken longer, because fewer people would have taken it seriously, so more would have violated it, and as a result more infections would have spread, so it would be necessary to keep going.
Or, you aggressively test everyone potentially exposed, which means aggressive contact tracing.
Which means doing basic public health.
Which the Democrats hate and fight against (see CA laws passed a couple of years ago to no longer make it a felony to give blood when you KNOW that you are HIV positive. Because to Democrats having a disease is a civil rights issue, not a public health one).
So, if by "listen to the epidemiologists" you mean "the Democrats will shut up and let us do real public health", then you're right.
If you mean anything else, you're wrong
I agree 100%. I thought the same about the choosing of the words "staycation" and "pause".
I agree 101%! AA selects words which obfuscate what's really going on in order to make her viewpoints or desires seem more benign and rational than they are; e.g. "some people seized on" a completely rational idea that she doesn't like, and changing Trump's statements on "social distancing" to statements about "lockdown", a word which he didn't use.
How much of the economy will still be around by then?
"Go with the epidemiologists"
Others have already asked, which ones?
I'll add, why only epidemiologists?
But the odd thing about Althouse's approach to the epidemic is that her usual instinct is to question authority, to challenge extravagant claims, to look for alternative views, to urge skepticism. I like that. Not in recent weeks: follow the experts! the "real calculations"! Etc. Etc. I like that less. But I'll leave for others to psychoanalyze the change in outlook.
I don't understand what's the matter with all of you bootstrap people. Don't you save for a rainy day? Because it's f****** pouring right now. Are you surprised that some of us lefties have about as much sympathy for you as you people do for poor oppressed Guatemalans and Hondurans that want to make a better life for themselves in Norte Americano?
It’s not simplistic at all. There is hard science behind the concept. And it’s temporary, people need to be more patient.
It's temporary until coronavirus pops up again in the fall. Or until a similar virus pops up in a year or two. What to do then? That's the point.
Althouse says listen to the experts, pause the economy and have another nice Staycation. But how many times can you do that?
Here's a civil, pleasant, short exchange I had with Meade, Yesterday. I like Meade. He is a good man. I don't think I've ever said a bad word on this blog to him or about him. (If I'm I wrong, feel free to correct me.)
My question to Meade:
"California has 39 Million people and 165 deaths. That's about 4 deaths per Million people.
Is that an exponentially spreading epidemic or mere background noise in an ordinary flu season?
3/30/20, 8:59 PM"
Meade:
"I don't know about exponential, Bay Area Guy. Has this been an "ordinary flu season?" I thought I read somewhere it's been a particularly bad flu season.
165 deaths out of 39 million people. That seems remarkably low. Maybe Californians can keep it below 200. I hope so."
_____________________________________________________
Well, I hope it stays below 200, too. I don't want folks to die from a Coronavirus either, or any other disease. Also, I don't wan't folks to lose their jobs, homes, cars, and hope, and start jumping off buildings in despair, if the economy tanks.
So, let's return to the numbers.
California still has 39 Million people, but now RCP says only 145 Corona deaths. Source: RCP .
So, that's still 4 deaths per Million people -- which Meade acknowledges "seems remarkably low."
It is remarkably low. We are in a world-wide epidemic, and yet the largest state in the Union, California, has 145 deaths. Which means, homeless folks in San Francisco are not really dying from it. Which means homeless folks in Los Angeles are not really dying from it. Which means that the 10 Million monthly subway riders on BART are not spreading it around in any significant way, or spreading it around, and it causes no symptoms.
So, of course, Gov Newsom and President Trump are gonna declare victory -- that the intensive measures we took kept these California numbers remarkably low . Yay, us! Probably, both will get reelected.
Is that the case, though, or is something else going on?
If you look at the State by State ACTUAL deaths and ACTUAL death rates, most states are much closer to California -- the notable exception is New York.
So, the simple question is, What is happening (or not happening) in California, and why?
I think we had a very lucky run of avoiding pandemics until now, we should not think that this time is an exception!
The only thing that I can think of that could have been done better is to stockpile enough protection -- masks, aprons gloves and so on, and on a much larger scale than just for hospitals.
Upside is that more people are now aware on how bugs hitch a ride, but I would think that teaching this early on in school would be good. And I'd welcome more people wearing masks if they have a bug, something I hope will happen now that people are getting used to wearing them without looking paranoid. Even when healthy, colds are annoying.
Question to those who know: If the bottleneck with ventilators is trained staff, would adding an AI help here to make ventilators less of a specialist equipment?
Just like they failed to contain thr bathhouses in san francisco where the outbrrak became a pandemic, and the one responsible became the head of the aids lobby (btw it was originally called rids,)
And all the medical 'experts' telling us we don't need masks when we can clearly see that Japanese and Koreans are all wearing them everywhere. Just because we didn't have enough.
"...it’s going to be things that we have available to us that we did not have before."
toilet paper?
Folks you just got a sneak preview of the 2020 democrat presidential campaign theme given by one of their elitists. She is cleverly playing Alinsky.
There were never going to be 2.2 million cases, but that is the upper limit, which has flatlined the economy. There might have been some supply shortages like from emilia romagna i included just their agricultural output.
Can we declare victory in California and restore the economy of the most populous state soon? When?
“It's temporary until coronavirus pops up again in the fall. Or until a similar virus pops up in a year or two. What to do then? That's the point.”
The point is that with time we’ll have more weapons in our arsenal against Covid19. Antibody testing should be readily available. With this we can know who has immunity, they can go back to work. If a huge number of people have immunity businesses can reopen safely.
Better medications to treat Covid. More time to do trials and glean evidence.
A vaccine?
As for some other deadly virus that may pop up? There were always deadly viruses that could pop up, we managed to live normally. The threat was/is always there. I can foresee more lockdowns if need be, but we don’t have deadly viruses that pop up into a pandemic every year.
Thanks, Tree Joe.
So, of course, Gov Newsom and President Trump are gonna declare victory -- that the intensive measures we took kept these California numbers remarkably low . Yay, us! Probably, both will get reelected.
No one knows what is happening in California, they completely screwed up testing. I am certainly curious about their rates but I haven't a clue about what is really going on.
"So, the simple question is, What is happening (or not happening) in California, and why?"
California has a much more outdoorsy and spread out environment, even in our major cities. We had a long stretch of no rain in California (Sacramento had its first no-rain February in recorded history). That might be a factor. We also get a lot more vitamin D. We're rarely tightly compacted. But even still, it's interesting that there wasn't any seeming outbreaks starting at places like Disneyland (where I went with my family in early March).
If lockdown worked, then the toll from spain would be dropping, but as jordan schachtel has pointed out, that ismt an effective measure.
"I don't understand what's the matter with all of you bootstrap people."
Oh, Howard.
Some of those 'bootstrap people' are lefties, too.
Working to pay off college debts, say.
Or people paying medical bills for rainy days that already came.
You don't have to open your contextual framework so large that someone can jam a giant hairy unlubed cock in it, but...
I am Laslo.
“And all the medical 'experts' telling us we don't need masks when we can clearly see that Japanese and Koreans are all wearing them everywhere. Just because we didn't have enough.”
I agree. It’s a damn shame and should never have happened. After this that’s another thing we’ve learned, be better prepared and learn from countries that have gone through it before us.
Despite that really low death toll given the population, it sure seems that coronavirus is disproportionately affecting the powerful and privileged, folks who otherwise shield themselves from the realities of life's misfortunes. That no doubt fuels the panic among the decision makers and influencers.
Not probably. It will strike again, and again, and again. The Wuhan virus (SARS-CoV-2) is in the wild, and the disease it causes, Covid-19, will only be controlled... mitigated through natural or anthropogenic immunity, and excess (e.g. cold, flu - with progress normalized) sickness and deaths, exacerbated through social contagion - think HIV/AIDS, social liberal club, and rectal intercourse.
I don't understand what's the matter with all of you bootstrap people. Don't you save for a rainy day? Because it's f****** pouring right now.
Actually, I have lots of savings and my wife and I are not being unduly inconvenienced in any way. She had to do her own nails and I want a haircut, but can't get one. But, plenty of other people are hurting: small business owners, restaurant wait staff, hair dressers, barbers, dentists, veterinarians, etc.
why need evidence
It’s not simplistic at all. There is hard science behind the concept. And it’s temporary, people need to be more patient.
Of course there's hard science behind the concept! If people are locked down inside their homes, there are all kinds of dangers that will go away. Fewer drunk driving accidents, Fewer stranger rapes. Fewer street robberies. If people can't leave their home without getting a ticket, we can be so very very safe.
It's the government as parent who won't let the kids play outside any more.
And if it starts up again in the fall, can we say it's "temporary"?
I don't want this to become the new "take your shoes off before boarding a plane" because of the shoe-bomber. Measures that are to keep us "safe" but ask us to restrict our freedoms are very rarely walked back.
TreeJoe thanks for the link.
I went to the link and it has a chart showing the number of cases by state. Do we have any idea why New York is such an outlier in the number of cases compared to other states? New York has 3375 cases per million, CA has 177 per million and TX has 106 per million. The first cases were on the west coast in Washington state which just has 675 cases per million so I don't think that it's that they are way ahead of the curve. New York has 5 times the number of cases per million that Washington state does.
I know that New York city is the largest city in the US but CA and TX both have multiple large metropolitan areas, and their infection rate is much lower. New York is not even the most dense metropolitan area that's the LA area. https://www.worldatlas.com/articles/the-most-crowded-city-in-the-united-states.html
Paddy O- I've thought about that. What if it were say, Omaha rather than New York that was pandemic central? Would we have the whole country on lockdown?
“ Some remain in denial.”
The best thing I have heard you say in my 15 or more years as a reader of this blog.
In Hong Kong during SARS, whole towers of buildings (apartment buildings that are high rises) were spreading the disease to each other, even if locked in. They investigated and found two things: the toilets were flushing in a way that droplets were spreading to the rest of the bathroom (very tiny bathrooms) and the airflow from bathroom window to bathroom window was spreading the virus between apartments.
I wonder if there is anything similar in New York.
For those who hope for herd immunity, there is no evidence as yet that recovering from this virus confers immunity.
Coronavirus reinfection: Business Insider
months-long mandatory staycation and pausing of the once-vibrant economy
I agree that some remain in denial.
And it’s temporary, people need to be more patient.
Is it though? I have asked this half a dozen times here at Althouse and never received an answer. What does coming out from under the bed look like? What are the benchmarks? What are we waiting for? Is it like obscenity: someone, somewhere, knows it when they see it?
Mr. Pants is about to get on an all hands call to tell 2500 people they are being furloughed at 20% salary for at least five months. I'll be sure to pass along your helpful advice about patience. I'm sure they will appreciate it.
Next time.
Well, this was a first time in 100 years. This was a first, though it's been predicted for years. There was no rule book on this. And while we're entering the most dangerous weeks for the US population, I think our administration has done a remarkably good job at galvanizing the resources in and outside of America to ramp up from nothing...to a complete change of course and action. And if the fine people at NBC/ABC or WaPo want to pick at whether restructuring factories can happen in 3 days or 3 weeks, it does not matter.
Trump started this from nothing. He has cleared out government hurdles, paired up the private sector successfully with key government departments, and one by one removed hundreds of barriers to getting things done quickly. Barriers, I might add, that Barack Obama piled on for 8 years. And, no- Obama did not back up emergency reserves on anything. Trump will. When this is over, the US will be in a much better position to deal with anything going forward. This was a learning lesson for us. Thankfully, we have someone in office who understands how to take action when faced with an event. (to this day, we still don't know where Obama was while the US Embassy in Benghazi was being overrun. And no- Jim Acosta did not ask about that.)
The thing that we have been fighting for is time. That is what flattening the curve is all about. Sure, part of it means that ERs and ICUs don’t get overwhelmed. But at least in this country, it also means that we can get important infrastructure in place. Likely we will have billions of masks and gloves available. Hundreds of millions of test kits. Plenty of whatever drugs work best. And hopefully a vaccine fast approaching, though with the FDA and CDC involved, I am not so sure about that.
Still, if anyone can prepare us for the fall resurgence, it will be Trump. The problem for us, the biggest impediment in getting through this pandemic with the fewest casualties, is the government (or actually governments, but a lot of people are likely to vote with their feet or their ballots against the incompetent state and local governments). I don’t see any Democrat politician doing any better than Obama did when he was faced with a much less lethal threat. He dithered and deferred to the bureaucrats. They are the party of government bureaucrats and government bureaucracy. Their response to any problem is to create a bureaucracy, and empower it to address the problem. But bureaucrats always caution going slowly. We have seen already how poorly the CDC, FDA, etc have done here. They weren’t prepared, even though that was their job. And have stood in the way, whether it be producing enough test kits, masks, or ultimately even vaccines. The exact wrong solution to a pandemic like this is to defer to the bureaucrats. Some of the other Republicans would have done better, but very likely none would have seen the danger as early and moved as decisively as Trump did. And part of the decisiveness is cutting red tape, when it is going to probably save lives. Another place Trump excels.
We also know better what works, and what doesn’t. My partner has been on me for several years to start taking cruises. After all, we have both the time and the money. Travel through Europe, maybe even go to China and Japan. Nope. I am not going to point out to her that summer should be decently safe on a cruise ship. The thought of being shut up with thousands of others, many with compromised immune systems, is enough to turn her off. Which is good. The reality is that population density correlates to probability of infection by strangers.
First estimate: 2.2 million American deaths
Current estimate: 200,000 American deaths
Current deaths: 2405
I thought Pants brought up a really interesting point yesterday about families in abusive situations being locked up together during troubling financial times.
I am concerned about people who are trying to stay sober, being unable to attend life saving AA and NA meetings.
There are health costs to this staycation. Please consider those when we talk about the "hard science".
Upside is that more people are now aware on how bugs hitch a ride, but I would think that teaching this early on in school would be good.
I agree that basic sanitation and hygiene is making a welcome comeback. I mean, permanently Lysoling your groceries and quarantining your Amazon packages is overkill, but staying away from others when you're sick, washing your hands, sanitizing high-touch surfaces, sanitizing your phone and computer, washing before you eat (a lot of people don't do this), etc should have always been habitual but haven't.
Are we under virtual house arrest to keep from getting infected, or to get infected at a later date?
I suppose that's an unfair question since "we'll know more in 4 more weeks".
Blogger Inga said...
“We need to quarantine people who have been exposed or people who feel ill sooner. Locking everyone down cannot be the new normal.”
And how will that be accomplished when people don’t realize they’ve been exposed? People shed virus even before they are symptomatic. Simplistic solutions are not helping.
It's called "testing". You might have heard of it. It comes from that which you claim to be your religion: science
Someone gets sick? Test everyone they know. Test every place they've been.
Tests are cheap. Nationwide quarantines are not
3163 deaths right now Jersey Fled. Your number is way off.
"next time..."
This experience is unprecedented in my lifetime. But now I should expect a next time?
I think initial skepticism was warranted, since the media turn every issue into a crisis and a looming catastrophe.
I am still skeptical. Obviously it's a crisis in NYC and other urban areas. But the vast geography of the US is not urban. In our rural county, there are a few confirmed cases, yet there are many, many who are suffering financially over the stay at home order.
I appreciate some the good faith answers, so I will put on my somewhat serious hat, and continue.
Here's another angle to look at:
The most comprehensive set of Infectious Disease Mortality data for the United States was published in JAMA in 1999. (See Armstrong et al.) Download the paper, and read it. It's easy. Focus on the two charts, Figures 1 & 2.
This paper looked at ALL infectious disease deaths (flu, polio, small pox, HIV -- all those nasty germs that make us sick).
So, tell me what you see?
What I see is a huge death mortality spike in 1918 (Spanish Flu), and an equality swift recovery downward spike.
And then I see that from 1920 to 2000, a estimated 95% decline in mortality rates from ALL infectious disease.
And then, I see that by year 2000, that all infectious disease makes up only 1% of all deaths, while non-infectious disease (heart attack, stroke, cancer, car accidents et al) make up 99% of all deaths.
That is the data and the context for viral outbreaks in America. ALL infectious disease, not just one new virus. 1% of all deaths.
This peer-reviewed data from Armstrong is the launching pad to make informed judgments about the scope of NEW viral epidemics, and how to respond without hysteria.
"And some of us have been slow on the uptake. Some remain in denial.”
Naaah!
This event, in my estimation of one of three things: (1) the usual 10 year peak flu epidemic, (2) a genetically engineered bioweapon or (3) a Black Swan viral event.
You don’t make grand plans for any of these. You respond to each as they occur.
Risk is the price of freedom. If you’re willing to shut down and give up your rights over this, we deserve what’s happening to our economy and daily lives.
“ Tests are cheap.”
Truer words never spoken. Alas they have not until now really been feasible in the numbers we need. That is changing. A key idea of the lockdown is to get to a point where we can use testing instead. Not there yet.
"Are we under virtual house arrest to keep from getting infected, or to get infected at a later date?”
Speaking of slow on the uptake, I guess anybody capable of understanding it already knows that the more people who can delay getting infected, the more hospital resources there are to go around.
“ You don’t make grand plans for any of these.”
Actually you can. We didn’t but we should. Some possible steps
1 fix the fucking CDC
2 stockpile dirt cheap masks
3 stockpile PPE
4 stop running gigantic deficits even in a boomer you can afford emergency measures
5 be less dependent on China and India for our prescription drugs
tim in vermont said...
"Are we under virtual house arrest to keep from getting infected, or to get infected at a later date?”
Speaking of slow on the uptake, I guess anybody capable of understanding it already knows that the more people who can delay getting infected, the more hospital resources there are to go around.
It seems like a fairer question than you give it credit for.
Are we under house arrest so that we won't get infected--
And if we don't get infected now we may never get infected (like other diseases. Not everybody gets them!)
Or
Once we go through this house arrest, are we probably going to get infected, just at a later date?
And some of us have been slow on the uptake. Some remain in denial.
They sure have, as here:
But this months-long mandatory staycation and pausing of the once-vibrant
Ken B said:
"3163 deaths right now Jersey Fled. Your number is way off.
Sorry, that was the number on the CDC website 10 seconds before I posted that comment.
But thanks for the correction and the insult anyway.
I'm really starting to dislike this guy with his doom and gloom predictions.
If at some nebulous point in the future, X millions of people will die, how do you get to that point and by when? There must be a timeline. What about predictions for next week? Based on our current actions, what will next week look like?
How do we get there from here, and how do we avoid that? This wholesale lockdown is simply not the answer.
Greg: "Nationwide quarantines"
Not picking a fight, I think we are on the same side of sanity and good sense, but: this is an oxymoron. Quarantines are supposed to be selective, targeted, not nationwide--partly so that society can keep going.
A smart person consults the experts, but only a fool would let the experts decide. Science informs policy, it does not set policy. Not if you want good decisions that improve people's lives, anyway.
Experts necessarily have a narrow unbalanced view and a warped value system. It's a professional hazard, it's required to become an expert--you have to care so much about one small thing that you leave knowledge and concern for the rest to others. But the person making decisions needs to weigh issues that go far beyond the expert's field.
Trump must care about more than merely completely stopping the virus. And, appropriately, he does.
I would certainly rather be infected in six or eight months than right now, and that’s my plan, to put it off as long as I can to not potentially take a respirator away from somebody who had no choice in the matter, health care worker, truck driver, grocery store clerk, whatever. Short of an effective vaccine, we are all going to get it, pretty much.
Its a rather grim calculus but the case/death ratio declined by half, the number of cases in nyc did so as we.
"Once we go through this house arrest, are we probably going to get infected, just at a later date?”
Same answer, flatten the curve so that we don’t hit the hospitals with a tidal wave all at one time.
not potentially take a respirator away from somebody who had no choice in the matter,
I mean, who has a choice in the matter?
So your answer is yes.....we are all going to get it sometime.
But at what cost, the cdc had their cranial inversion focusing on irrelevant things no matter how large the budget.
The Hysterical have saved 10.9965 million American lives to date. You cannot deny that, Deniers. Hermits and the idle retirees not hardest hit.
Jersey Fled
Why is it an insult? I said your number was way off. That’s about your number, and it’s true.
How much of that stupid bill went to the cdc or the fda and not the recently ahuttered kennedy center or nasa?
Some remain in denial.
Some people even seized on the idea of a staycation.
There’s people out there working who have no real choice. It’s incredibly selfish to want to use up their hospital resources because you are feeling stir crazy.
I am stir crazy right now. The cold weather isn’t helping. At least the rain stopped. I am trying to make the best of it, but there are a ton of things I would rather be doing right now. My mother is dying in Maryland, I can’t support my two sisters who are caring for her, what a thing for them knowing that any morning, they may find her passed away in her bed. Caring for her as best they can with no outside help. The nurses have greatly minimized visits and do it by phone now. I should be there and can’t. And that’s just one thing. I try to put on a happy face, but this is downright depressing.
Speaking of slow on the uptake, I guess anybody capable of understanding it already knows that the more people who can delay getting infected, the more hospital resources there are to go around.
I've had it with your personal insults.
I'll ask you once to knock it off.
If we are all going to get it sometime, how long do we have to engage in curve-flattening lock downs? Because that is a lot of people to let this slowly roll through. Is it until we have a vaccine that works?
I know people say until there are tests....but how do people imagine these tests working? Meade said yesterday he would want to test himself every morning before going out for the day. Is that what people are looking for?
People who have the power to stay home have a choice in the matter. People who are essential to our economy don’t. If I were a young man, I would take my chances and trying to help out, but as a retiree, all I would be doing is getting in the way and very possibly using up medical resources that I have no right to make a demand on.
Re “pausing”
That's the intent. I agree we do not know yet if that's the reality. I think Althouse, to be more careful, should have said “anticipated” or “intended” or whatever qualification fits best. But I also think it’s clear from context. No harm no foul is how I call it.
Blogger tim in vermont said...
I would certainly rather be infected in six or eight months than right now, and that’s my plan, to put it off as long as I can to not potentially take a respirator away from somebody who had no choice in the matter, health care worker, truck driver, grocery store clerk, whatever. Short of an effective vaccine, we are all going to get it, pretty much.
3/31/20, 9:58 AM
Certainly, this is a reasonable response. However, how do we relieve quarantine? People are going stir crazy, lost jobs, losing jobs. How do you gradually put people back into 'society' without a sudden mad rush?
Leave it up to people to self-quarantine based on recommendation has worked and is working fairly well. It also makes it easier to relieve those recommendations without generating a situation where people just go out all at once.
I'm not sure how you do that in the locations with police state rules. You have to necessarily police who can and who cannot go out.
There’s people out there working who have no real choice. It’s incredibly selfish to want to use up their hospital resources because you are feeling stir crazy.
I'm not feelings stir crazy. I'm sorry about your mother- that's terrible. My sister died last year and I have thought a million times about how awful it would be if that were this year, although I would have had her another year.
Is there evidence that the people getting sick now are only the grocery workers and medical workers? Is it "selfish" for people who have small business to be afraid they will lose their business? That's not being stir crazy!
Sorry to hear that tim, these atupid rules written by cranially inverted bureaucrats, they might as well be replicants.
A five month staycation? Wow, what fun! At only the cost of a five month pause in their full earning potential.
How are those people going to pay their rent or make their mortgage payments. And what about the business? Is it going to be in existence in five months?
"If we are all going to get it sometime, how long do we have to engage in curve-flattening lock downs? “
That’s your choice. I think it would be a selfish choice to risk hospitalization right now when so many nurses, doctors, policemen, etc, are sick. This is like a tsunami. It doesn’t seem like much at first.
I know that denial makes people feel better, and every time somebody uses a scary metaphor their mind shuts it down and puts it away and yells “Liar!” but this is not a case for denial.
The worldwide reaction to this pandemic is pissing off climate activists who want exactly this level of effort for their cause.
Normally, I avoid the abortion issue like, well, the plague. Although I’m morally opposed, I don’t go on crusades and don’t want the grief.
This hysteria, however, really begs the question. If 100,000 potential deaths is worth this type of wild response, why are millions of abortions OK?
Despite all of Althouse’s bullshit responses, I think it really boils down to women should get whatever the hell they want and unborn children don’t have a vote.
The use of the word “denial” or “denialist” is a sure sign of deliberate lying.
I say this with love: It does seem to me it is a lot of retirees who are the most ...flippant....about people who are not really comfortable with this "staycation". Althouse, Inga, Tim in Vermont.
I'm not a retiree. My husband and I are independent contractors. My boss in one of my jobs has 2 businesses he's trying to keep afloat. My young friends in Chicago have been let go from their jobs and so have lost their health insurance. I know they will get unemployment....but will their employers come back to life?
It isn't stir craziness, and maybe retirees could do a little more to understand that, even as they do a great job of sheltering in place for the good of others.
That’s your choice. I think it would be a selfish choice to risk hospitalization right now when so many nurses, doctors, policemen, etc, are sick. This is like a tsunami. It doesn’t seem like much at first.
How is it my choice? It is currently illegal for me to travel to do business.
Inga is not a retiree.
I am. Our income is dependent on stocks.
"How are those people going to pay their rent or make their mortgage payments. And what about the business? Is it going to be in existence in five months?"
What are you talking about? Pension payments are automatically deposited every month in the checking account.
Will try again.
“I went to the link and it has a chart showing the number of cases by state. Do we have any idea why New York is such an outlier in the number of cases compared to other states? New York has 3375 cases per million, CA has 177 per million and TX has 106 per million. The first cases were on the west coast in Washington state which just has 675 cases per million so I don't think that it's that they are way ahead of the curve. New York has 5 times the number of cases per million that Washington state does.”
1. NYC is the most international city in the country. It even has the UN, which guarantees that someone from almost every country in the world is there.
2. Manhattan has the highest population density, roughly 100x that of MT.
3. It depends, more than any other big city in this country on mass transit. As I noted in a previous thread, mass transit means mass infections (except maybe in germaphobic Japan).
4. The population of Manhattan swells during the day, with hundreds of thousands commuting there every day. Commuting mostly by mass transit, then walking the rest of the way, in dense crowds. (Contrast with LA, where most people still commute via automobiles, safe from contagion by strangers).
5. People have to walk a lot in NYC, esp Manhattan, because they mostly cannot drive. Walk in close proximity with strangers from around the world.
6. Incompetent governance. Giuliani and Bloomberg almost assuredly would have done a better job. De Blasio was pushing celebration of the Chinese New Year, after Trump had already imposed Chinese travel restrictions. He didn’t get around to ordering supplies, like masks, gloves, and sanitizer until this month, well after they had disappeared from stores around the country. As a result his police likely have an infection rate above 10%. Etc.
5.
Tim inVermont has given good reasons to avoid unnecessary risk of infection right now. I think I could summarize them by saying “duty”. There is another good reason: knowledge. We still don’t know what drugs if any are effective. Those who get sick in the future will have the benefit of knowledge.
There are lots of issues and effects in play. But those who can stay out of the way, should.
To believe we are in lockdown to contain the virus is to believe the virus can be contained.
To believe we are in lockdown to flatten the curve and not overwhelm the system is to believe there will be another spike and overwhelm the system once the lockdown is lifted.
Ken B:
As of 11:09 the CDC is still reporting 2405 deaths in the US. The CDC is an authoritative source for this type if data. In fact it is the official source for this data for the U.S. government. There will be an update at noon.
Yet you felt compelled to make a "correction" from a different unnamed source and describe me as being "way off".
The point of my comment, which I though most readers here would get, was that 2405 deaths (or 3163 by your count) is "way off" from 200,000 and even more "way off" from 2.2 million.
Apparently you missed that point and instead felt compelled to make a pointless "correcttion"
I trust the math. I don’t necessarily trust the assumptions, and stuff changes, but the math says this gets worse and worse if we don’t do something, and no vaccine is going to come quickly enough.
Part of this is that we can’t see the crucible of this thing. It’s in intensive care wards, out of our sight.
Ken B said...
Inga is not a retiree.
I am. Our income is dependent on stocks.
Is she not?
Stocks, pensions, social security, medicare. I'm not saying your income might not be affected, but not going to work each day is a pretty easy choice to make if you don't work, no?
"sheltering in place for the good of others"
Some of whom don't quite seem to grasp the pain and devastation others undergo for their benefit.
That's not helping. Expressions of gratitude would be helping. Offers of sacrifice would be helping. More rigorous old-people quarantines would be helping. More explicit support for "reopening safely" would be helping.
Threats of vengeance are not helping.
And staying home and exploring your interests isn’t exactly a difficult choice when you’ve retired so that you can .... stay at home and explore your interests.
People who still have responsibilities, such as employees and children and mortgage payments, tend to see being restricted from interacting in the world differently.
Not really sure why some are being a bit obtuse about this.
“Experts necessarily have a narrow unbalanced view and a warped value system. It's a professional hazard, it's required to become an expert--you have to care so much about one small thing that you leave knowledge and concern for the rest to others. But the person making decisions needs to weigh issues that go far beyond the expert's field.”
Which, of course, is the fatal flaw in the Democrats’ theory of governance (as well as socialism in general). Their general philosophy is that the experts can make decisions better than the masses, so we should trust them to make those decisions. But that depends on an idealized view of government and government bureaucracies. The reality is that government bureaucrats are just as parochial as the rest of us, and their decisions are, almost inevitably, slanted and prejudiced in their, and their organization’s direction. It’s just the nature of the beast.
It's unbelievable to me that someone as smart as our hostess is fooled by this.
SMH
For us personally, this hasn't changed our lives very much. In fact very little.
We are still working. Our business is essential. We are staying home more, but then again...we always do anyway. Just a less going out for spur of the moment lunches once in a while. No more trips to say over in a hotel at neighboring Big Town (90 miles away). Had to cancel trips to visit with distant family.
We have some cash reserves and a credit line for the business, which we hope not to have to tap. We shall see, though. How long this lasts. How long can WE last?
We, personally...are very lucky in this hard time. More than willing to do what we can to "flatten the curve" but under no illusion that we are actually safe. Eventually, everyone will be exposed.
BUT-----> this is NOT a staycation for millions of others. It isn't fun. It isn't funny. Boredom is not the worst thing to happen to people. Financial ruination and deprivation is. To take it lightly or make out as if it is an easy thing for others is just short sighted and even cruel. People's lives, jobs are being destroyed and they may never recover.
I understand flattening the curve so everyone doesn't get sick at once time and overwhelm the system. This is a good thing for now to buy time and find a cure. However, the end result on our economy and the lives of people who have been decimated economically, may have longer lasting and more devastating effects.
We won't know until looking back at the past and think....hmmmmmm...maybe we should not have done XX and should have done ABC instead. Hindsight is 20/20
"How is it my choice? It is currently illegal for me to travel to do business.”
I am not trying to be flippant. I believe that this is extremely serious. If you don’t believe that this is extremely serious situation, then perhaps you think I don’t believe it either, but you would be wrong.
“We need to quarantine people who have been exposed or people who feel ill sooner. Locking everyone down cannot be the new normal.”
And how will that be accomplished when people don’t realize they’ve been exposed? People shed virus even before they are symptomatic.>>>
We don't have enough data---yet---on asymptomatic transmissibility. It may be found that the initial latent phase isn't a time of high risk for transmission. We will hopefully find this out in the next 6 months. Right now, strict caution is necessary. In any case we absolutely cannot shut down again like this unless something hits that is a similar disaster. Test, test, test! There will be permanent changes, too, in people's everyday behavior such as using wipes on public surfaces both personally and also by businesses.
We will also hopefully have hard data to pinpoint where/how the infection is most likely spread. Seems to me likely that it's going to be from touching public surfaces and shaking hands; things of that nature--and not from merely being within arm's length of an infected person. That, too, will be incredibly important information.
Off topic, but something I would like to see discussed productively:
Shouting Thomas asked:
"This hysteria, however, really begs the question. If 100,000 potential deaths is worth this type of wild response, why are millions of abortions OK?"
* Because it's not about life and death, but about an 18 year commitment to raise a person. That's a lot of time and money.
* Kids' homes/fosters have a huge failure rate and are often officially sanctioned child abuse and there's are a lot of vultures on the easy take in this business too. Nice work, if you can get it...!
* Kids get removed from abusive parents far too late and by the time they get adopted by normal people who are not trained specialists, they are hardened problem cases with many issues, and can destroy existing families --- the adopters despair, some get divorced and the new siblings are bullied or worse. It's almost impossible to adopt a child on the day it's born. (look up 'failed adoptions' and weep.)
Bottom line: kids need parents and abortions happen when women decide not to parent --- missing partner, no resources, or just no mothering culture (parenting is a learned skill, there's an 18 year long course to absolve first)
(not an abortion fan either, just a realist and somewhat dismayed that people want to solve a symptom but not the cause)
Blogger MayBee said...
By the fall we'll also have better data: What was the death rate? What are the symptoms? Who is most susceptible? What treatments worked? How many people are still out of work from March/April?
3/31/20, 8:33 AM
We should have this information now.
You know what other information we should be able to easily get in this information age?
160,000 people die in the USA every year from respiratory disease. 80,000 die from the flu.
Some quick math tells me that's, on average, about 4,500 deaths a week from flu, emphysema, bronchitis, asthma, etc.
How many people are dying right now of coronavirus, flu, and respiratory diseases each week?
The reason I ask is because I suspect we have people dying from emphysema and bronchitis and other respiratory diseases who also have coronavirus. So, they're being marked deceased as having been killed by the virus.
But, what if the numbers are still 4,500 a week?
I think those numbers are important to know.
"People who still have responsibilities, such as employees and children and mortgage payments, tend to see being restricted from interacting in the world differently.
Not really sure why some are being a bit obtuse about this."
It's not just a river in Egypt.
(not an abortion fan either, just a realist and somewhat dismayed that people want to solve a symptom but not the cause)
I'm a realist, too. I would like to see these women getting birth control implants.
Why aren't they ?
Laslo, as usual nailed it solidly. Reading this from our hostess set my teeth on edge. She evidences no thought of the horrendous impact of this on most others beyond the comfort and security of her fully funded state pension. The unemployment rate now significantly exceeds the peak unemployment during the Great Depression.
Althouse, try these thought experiments the next time you pause the inexorable march of that fine mind of yours:
1. With many renters given the temporary safe harbor of no eviction, imagine how that plays out when the accrued rent ultimately comes due. Landlords have bills to pay with no income. How many rental properties will end up in the hands of lenders?
2. Will Dane County absorb its fair share of the newly homeless?
3. While not representative of the economy as a whole, large Hollywood agencies have laid off assistants and mailroom folks and jr agents with the encouraging message that when this is over, everyone will have the chance to apply to get their jobs back. It doesn’t take much imagination to know that they won’t all be rehired. The new normal will give everyone a risk-free opportunity to do some housecleaning.
4. The history of man didn’t start in the last 92 years after the invention of penicillin. Viruses and bacteria have rampaged through humanity in the caves, the trees, jungles, towns, and cities for thousands of years. Those with hypertension, diabetes, suppressed immune systems, asthma, heart disease, and respiratory ailments, the old and infirm died in droves while the healthy survived passing those winning genes along to the future. What would be the expected outcome as the human gene pool fills with those who have miraculously survived because the rest of us savaged our economy and our personal economic security so that the viruses could be denied their harvest?
5. How long will it take for the top marginal tax rate to exceed 80%? 90%? Or the institution of a wealth tax? We have a public debt exceeding $25 trillion and we just took on another $2.2 trillion.
I dislike the trade, Ann. We should have let the devil take his toll and be done with it. You are unwilling to properly weigh the costs of this.
- Krumhorn
What are you talking about? Pension payments are automatically deposited every month in the checking account.
I'm not sure if you are being sarcastic. I'm talking about people whose income is gone or reduced because of the lock down. Everybody isn't on a pension. In fact, most people aren't. Oh, by the way, pension funds invest in the stock market, and most of them, especially the ones for state and municipal employees, are way underfunded and were going to fail anyway. But if the economy tanks, that's going to accelerate.
"It's unbelievable to me that someone as smart as our hostess is fooled by this.”
Hmmmm.
We have been hit by a catastrophe, whether natural or not. It will have catastrophic impacts. I guess it’s easier to think that this is all overblown if you pretend to understand the math well enough that you can safely reject its implications. I believe the 2.2 million figure if we do nothing, so please understand my views about the economic impact of the measures we are taking as a country in light of that fact.
And we'll be more impatient — next time around — if our leaders don't act quickly.
Assumes facts not in evidence.
Until we get a good idea of how many people have already had the virus and recovered, we have no basis on which to make any judgements.
Suppose we do random antibody testing and discover that only the people who already tested positive on a PCR test have antibodies. That would tell us that the PCR testing caught every single infection and that the "confirmed case" numbers that are being reported today are actually an accurate measure of how widespread the infection is. I think that would come as a surprise to just about everyone, as almost everybody believes that there are at least as many asymptomatic cases as symptomatic ones, and only a subset of the latter are actually being tested.
On the other hand, I've seen no data yet that rules out the possibility that reported cases are a tiny fraction of the number of actual infections, and that 99 percent of the people who get infected never get tested at all, most because they have no symptoms, others because their symptoms are mild. It's entirely possible that the infection has already peaked in New York with 10 million infected, recovered and now immune, and that new cases there will start declining tomorrow due to herd immunity. Is this likely? Probably not, but the point is we just don't know, and we won't know until we get results from random antibody testing.
So it's far too early to start lauding the social distancing and lockdown stuff yet. It may yet turn out that it was all unnecessary.
Not really sure why some are being a bit obtuse about this
I believe we are experiencing a severe outbreak of solipsism.
"How many people are dying right now of coronavirus, flu, and respiratory diseases each week?”
Why are the hospitals in stricken areas filling up with Wuhan patients then? Or is that all lies? Another math muggle self identifies.
"I believe we are experiencing a severe outbreak of solipsism.”
I believe were are experiencing a severe outbreak of denial.
Maybeee said I don't want this to become the new "take your shoes off before boarding a plane" because of the shoe-bomber. Measures that are to keep us "safe" but ask us to restrict our freedoms are very rarely walked back.
Exactly. The government has found out that it CAN force us all to stay home and restrict our freedoms. People may put up with it because they don't want to fall ill or worse spread the illness to others. VOLUNTARILY...Put up with it for a while. NOT FOREVER.
The problem is as Maybee said. Once the government feels the power to restrict our freedoms for this...when will it stop. Likely.... Never.
NYC is the most international city in the country. It even has the UN, which guarantees that someone from almost every country in the world is there.
Interesting that the Orange County Register has an interactive map of Orange County (where I lived for 40 years) that shows virus cases by city.
You know where the two hot spots are? Newport Beach and Laguna Beach, the two richest cities. The stuff about the poor being at more risk is bullshit. Those two cities probably have more international travelers than any other city under a million population.
Irvine is the college town with lots of Asians and has the most cases but not the most per 10,000.
In LA, West Hollywood and Palos Verdes are hot spots. Also affluent.
The homeless are probably protected because they don't go anywhere and nobody comes near them.
"I believe were are experiencing a severe outbreak of denial."
And some believe that the one-size-fits-all response is more damaging than it needs to be.
Some are at home with no job and no paycheck. No paycheck =, among other things, unpaid rent, unpaid medical bills, unpaid child support, etc.
Some are outside, taking pictures of nature - no doubt staying 6 feet away from other people of course as best able, but deciding what shelter-in-place means to them as far as excursions and extrapolating from there.
Mixed signals on the radio.
I am Laslo.
"Ron Winkleheimer said...
A five month staycation? Wow, what fun! At only the cost of a five month pause in their full earning potential.
How are those people going to pay their rent or make their mortgage payments. And what about the business? Is it going to be in existence in five months?"
I was being facetious Ron. Sheesh.
Jersey Fled
Worldometer is my source. I should have said. Did you name your source in your original post?
Other sources also report over 3000 this morning. The CDC site says its data is as of 20 hours ago. If you are citing day old data and I am citing current data I expect them to differ but I don’t expect your data to be more accurate. Do you?
Michael K:
Women aren't getting implants because some are disorganized, others don't like the hormonal hit, and the better alternative which is IUD's (with or without hormones) have a 'bad reputation' which is not deserved.
However, coils are not easy to fit --- it can be a production and hurts badly at times when done by a beginner, also, the staff need to pick the right size and it's a fiddly, stressful procedure to inflict on anyone and perform well, and so on.
If fitted competently, a coil can stay in trouble free for many years, and hence, there isn't much profit to be had.
That all said, I suspect that the missing profit is the main sticking point.
Blogger tim in vermont said...
"How many people are dying right now of coronavirus, flu, and respiratory diseases each week?”
Why are the hospitals in stricken areas filling up with Wuhan patients then? Or is that all lies? Another math muggle self identifies.
3/31/20, 10:49 AM
What are the numbers, Tim?
How many people are normally in the hospitals this time of year?
How often are the hospitals normally overrun during peak flu season and other times of the year?
Other than straight up news we all know we can trust from our mainstream media, what's the evidence our hospitals are being overrun? How can we verify that information? Why do you trust it?
My prediction is that one of the results of this pandemic is that more of us see the folly of living cheek by jowl in very dense cities, using mass transit to get around. Only the fools who still believe in the CAGW hoax are going to continue push increased urbanization and mass transit.
Much of the white collar portion of our workforce has been forced to work remotely, if they want to work at all. To a great extent, we already have much of the technology needed, and and with demand, it will continue to evolve and get better. And, really ditto for schooling. For a lot of white (and pink) collar jobs, there is no really good reason to live close to, and commute to, work every day any more.
My kid goes into the office once a week, to play with their lasers, because they have carpeting at home, so their boss won’t let them take their lasers home. Their partner (and hopefully, soon, spouse) is a first line manager for testing water quality a big municipal water company. And they are only going in once a week. It is working. A good friend is a partner in a patent firm. They have completely distributed, with a single person having to pick up the mail (now from a PO Box) everyday. Attorneys, support staff, etc., are now happily working from home, with little adverse effect. They are seriously contemplating giving up their expensive office space.
And when you eliminate the requirement of going into the office every day, you cut the tie to living close to work. Instead, you can live further and further from big cities.
I should note my prejudices here. I completed the purchase yesterday of our subdivision, in MT, from the bank, that had picked it up early in the Obama Recession. Which is to say that I now have a financial incentive to push rural living. Still, I think that there are plenty of people who would prefer deer hanging out in the front yard with their young every day, and turkey flocks coming through several times a week, to having homeless squatting there. At night, you can hear crickets, and every hour or so, the whistle of a BNSF train. No horns, and almost as few sirens.
"How many people are normally in the hospitals this time of year?”
Your question in no way gets to the heart of the matter. It’s a stupid question intended to mislead. It’s rhetorical math, something that sounds like mathematical reasoning, but isn’t. I learned all about it from Global Warming alarmists, it’s their specialty, like breathless headlines about Greenland melt being “nearly a record” over the past seventeen friggin’ years.
I just walked around my lot this morning. Not a singe ash tree is showing signs of ash borer infestation. I guess I can stop worrying, because its only a few trees over on the golf course!
Oso Negro said...
Althouse is in a perfect position to be philosophical about the current circumstances. She is well-off, retired, married to a most handy fellow, doesn't like travel, and enjoys quiet walks around Madison. As long as people keep the local Whole Foods market stocked....oh, well, hmm.
Don't forget the poor deplorables who mine coal and frack gas to keep the heat on in Wisconsin's winters.
I say this with love: It does seem to me it is a lot of retirees who are the most ...flippant....about people who are not really comfortable with this "staycation">>>
Jumping off here (not in any way challenging the above observation): Civilization rests precariously on the head of a pin. Ok, maybe a nail-head but you get the point. Right now, our civil society is being terribly stressed, and one thing I have seen is the resentment/envy/hatred that people are expressing towards those who are not having to make tremendous sacrifices at this point. In a personal example, there is a friend who lashed out at me after a long phone conversation where we discussed the horrific impact of this pandemic and the fact that her household is vulnerable (husband works in hospital, she has medical disability, daughter will not be paid). At no point did I minimize any of these problems both for her and society, and I expressed my sympathy, hope, and support. I said nothing about my own household or problems (which are relatively minimal). Out of nowhere she said in a cold nasty tone, "Well I guess you don't have to worry about your husband missing a paycheck." And that's true although nothing is certain. We continued to talk pretty normally but we had beat the pandemic subject to death and I said that it was making me anxious and I'd rather try to talk about something else. She abruptly ended the conversation and I haven't heard from her since, it's been about 3 weeks. I do not think we will ever talk again; the mask has come off and her envy at the fact that her life sucks and mine does not (at this point) is revealed. She also has a back-burner anger at me because she figured out that I voted for Trump and blames him for absolutely everything.
"I'm not sure if you are being sarcastic."
Was being deliberately myopic. If you don't know people who live on the edge even in good economic times -- those who lose cars to the repo man and get evicted and have trouble keeping stable employment and cannot afford even the medical co-pays and to whom savings (much less a 401k) is a pipe dream -- it is much easier to ignore the severity the remedy the staycation/hermit crowd think is so obvious.
tim in vermont said...
"How many people are dying right now of coronavirus, flu, and respiratory diseases each week?”
Why are the hospitals in stricken areas filling up with Wuhan patients then? Or is that all lies? Another math muggle self identifies.
Only about 10% of those with symptoms are testing positive for CV19. If the hospitals are filling up, it's because they're being flooded with non-CV19 patients.
Your question in no way gets to the heart of the matter. It’s a stupid question intended to mislead.
Oh! Well, I guess if you say so.
When we look back on this time and the numbers are finally released (years from now?) And we see the same number of people died as normally died, you can be comforted in your conviction that those numbers are just intended to mislead.
While the rest of us suffer from a global depression brought on by your not at all misleading or fear mongering numbers.
“ Only about 10% of those with symptoms are testing positive for CV19. If the hospitals are filling up, it's because they're being flooded with non-CV19 patients.”
Evidence please. By which I mean evidence that hospital admissions are 90% non covid patients with covid symptoms, in regions where covid is common.
"And some believe that the one-size-fits-all response is more damaging than it needs to be."
Exactly.
Down with damage denial.
But unless a vaccine is found and serious herd immunity proves effective soon, old and sick people will remain at risk for a long time. Since the rest of us cannot extend our staycations as long, something will have to give.
If the risk to the risk groups remains what it is, so that new spikes in health care demand are possible, the only solution is: rigorous quarantine of the old and sick. We should be doing it now. Without advances in medical solutions, it will soon become the only alternative. That is what we should prepare for -- how to help the old and sick isolate, for months, for real, without any contact with any possible source of infection. That's not easy, for anyone.
“1. With many renters given the temporary safe harbor of no eviction, imagine how that plays out when the accrued rent ultimately comes due. Landlords have bills to pay with no income. How many rental properties will end up in the hands of lenders?”
That is where the bulk of my income comes from. We are lucky. We have a lot of excess cash, that we have just started to pay out, over the next five years, as dividends. Our property management company alerted us of the problems. One brother suggested that we reduce the quarterly dividend (due tomorrow) in anticipation. I pointed to the pile of cash we are sitting on, and suggested that we wait and see how bad it gets this coming quarter. My suggestion carried the day. But, as I said, we are lucky, and can survive a couple years without receiving rents.
But the thing that we do need to do is study the new rules, as well as the stimulus package, to see how to minimize the damage. Our property manager seems to be on top of it (he had better be, given how much he makes every year from us). But a second set of eyes (3rd and 4th too), since two of us are (patent) lawyers, and a third is an engineer, cannot hurt. As I said, we are very fortunate. And as a result are going to be better positioned to resist evictions as long as we can.
This “pause” in the economy cannot be restarted by the flick of an all clear switch. Especially since we have the encouraging word that the virus is coming back in the fall. How convenient. No, even if the virus disappeared n a month the devastation will take a long while to repair. It was nice when the blitz was over and the bombs didn’t fall every night, but the rubble took years to remove.
I’m sure that the unemployed are thrilled with their staycation. Ordering in, shopping Amazon, relaxing.
Staycation my ass. What a stupid choice of words.
I believe the 2.2 million figure if we do nothing, so please understand my views about the economic impact of the measures we are taking as a country in light of that fact.
In a population of 330 million, that would be a croaking rate of .6%. In any loss scenario, that is a perfectly acceptable outcome. A win, in fact. We need to reserve these draconian public responses for truly devastating pathogens where the loss rate is orders of magnitude greater.
The cost is disproportionate to the problem by many furlongs.
- Krumhorn
"Oh! Well, I guess if you say so.”
I tell you what then. You explain to me why I don’t have to plan to cut down all of the ash trees on my property because there are only a few infested trees five miles away from here. Once the trees are killed by the borers, they become a dangerous hazard, so I breathlessly await your trenchant analysis of the situation and your air tight explanation of why I am wrong to worry about it at all. Those trees are gonna live a long and natural life? Or is your explanation that the trees were going to die anyway sometime in the next 75 years?
"that is a perfectly acceptable outcome. A win, in fact”
In democracies, that’s the kind of thing we vote on. Good luck running on that.
The stuff about the poor being at more risk is bullshit. Those two cities probably have more international travelers than any other city under a million population.>>>
The local county infection basically began with a swanky Board of Director's type of evening affair, and then passed directly into the population of a swanky private prep-school.
Bruce Hayden
If your assets were financed through the agencies the govt has forbidden eviction for three months. An invitation, of course, for tenants to not pay. My sources in the multi family business expect a 30% fall off in rents in April.
Good luck. But you might be wise to have a chat with your lenders to suggest a three month payment holiday. You will be glad you did.
Sigh. You know who is back. A moderation lockdown is coming.
In a population of 330 million, that would be a croaking rate of .6%. In any loss scenario, that is a perfectly acceptable outcome.
At some point we as a society are going to have to accept a certain number of deaths, just like we do with everything else outside of criminal conduct.
Not to do so defies human nature and the natural world we live in.
unforgiving of poor choices https://elemental.medium.com/hold-the-line-17231c48ff17
I keep coming back to the Twilight Zone episode “Button Button” where a knock comes at the door and a package is delivered, it’s a box with a button and a note that if you press the button, you get one million dollars and somebody you don’t know dies.
Ken B said...
Re “pausing”
That's the intent. I agree we do not know yet if that's the reality. I think Althouse, to be more careful, should have said “anticipated” or “intended” or whatever qualification fits best. But I also think it’s clear from context. No harm no foul is how I call it.
It's interesting how the same person will exaggerate and nitpick his opponents' comments to insult them while excusing his allies to exonerate them. It's almost like assholish behavior follows a pattern.
I ask again—this is the 8th time—when is it safe to come out from under the bed? What are the benchmarks? What are we waiting for? What number of daily deaths can we live with?
Tim, Ken?
In other words, they're going to use the testing, isolating, contact-tracing strategy we could be using right now if the CDC and FDA hadn't failed at the beginning of this. I guess fall is better than never.
Ron Winkleheimer said...
Oh, by the way, pension funds invest in the stock market, and most of them, especially the ones for state and municipal employees, are way underfunded and were going to fail anyway. But if the economy tanks, that's going to accelerate.
Even if that's true the result will be taxing workers more to ensure pensioners don't suffer. Democratic politics always means favored classes like government employees never share the pain. So anyone not in a favored class pays at least twice as much cover them. This of course makes it all the more insulting they refer to being out of work as a staycation.
The Wall Street Journal has good piece on Sweden: Inside Sweden’s Radically Different Approach to the Coronavirus - No lockdown, no quarantines, just voluntary advice and a big dose of hope
Blogger I Have Misplaced My Pants said...
I ask again—this is the 8th time—when is it safe to come out from under the bed? What are the benchmarks? What are we waiting for? What number of daily deaths can we live with?
Tim, Ken?
"We'll know more in 4 more weeks"
The shutdown in the Fall will be much easier since 50% of the work force will still be unemployed at that time.
Look for stories about southern Italy today- that is just a couple of weeks in our future here in the U.S.
“ Jumping off here (not in any way challenging the above observation): Civilization rests precariously on the head of a pin. Ok, maybe a nail-head but you get the point. Right now, our civil society is being terribly stressed, and one thing I have seen is the resentment/envy/hatred that people are expressing towards those who are not having to make tremendous sacrifices at this point.”
I think that is going to make this upcoming election very interesting. Normally, I think that it would give the Democrats a boost. But they have become the party also of billionaires, government bureaucrats, lobbyists, and other ner do wells. Bernie maybe could make a credible showing, pushing envy. But the rest of them? I don’t think so, given that they would be running against a master salesman Trump. Their weakness, I think, is that it will be too easy to call them out for hypocrisy. The politicians and the bureaucrats are always the first to get paid, and the last to lose their jobs. Why should we give them power, so that they can make even more money, at the expense of everyone else? Imagine Biden, Crooked Hillary, or even Liawatha Warren, making an appeal towards resentment or envy. Trump merely needs to point out (repetitively, of course) that they personally are rich enough not to worry themselves, and their wealth came from skimming the taxpayers. Why should anyone believe that they are out to protect the downtrodden, when they have primarily been more interested in getting filthy rich as a result of their government “service”. As I said, just push their hypocrisy.
Pants
I have answered you, and my answer had nothing to do with your notion of acceptable deaths.
" What number of daily deaths can we live with? “
And I ask you, are two million early deaths OK with you? If so, just say that you don’t care. Call your congressman, call your governor, tell him that the deaths don’t matter.
As for Browdog, I am sorry that the real world doesn’t wrap up nicely in 22 minutes like an episode of King of Queens.
Help a girl out, Ken. What was that answer, again?
- Bar exams are not being given. Student debt. No jobs
- Children in schools and universities are losing at least a half year of their education. This online fix is just crap in the hands of tenured fucks who think posting a grainy video of their rambling is sufficient pedagogically while they relish their fully paid staycatIon
- Investments today are worth over 25% less than a month ago.
- The guB’ment wants to give people $1,200 as if that’s going to help anyone but the crack hos.
- Suicide rate increases should be a reasonable concern due to stress and financial chaos in the personal checkbook
- How many small family businesses can possibly survive this?
The costs of this are immensely disproportionate to the situation. It’s not social distancing. It’s social conditioning. We’re being groomed for a real ass reaming.
- Krumhorn
Tim. What number is acceptable to you? Is it zero? Do we do this until no one is dying of CV?
Althouse
But this months-long mandatory staycation and pausing of the once-vibrant economy are teaching us — most of us — that it's bad to wait and see if it really does look bad. Go with the epidemiologists, and there will be a lot less pain. Next time, the President and the Governors and the mayors will think differently about what burdens and restrictions the people will put up with. And we'll be more impatient — next time around — if our leaders don't act quickly.
How do people get off writing shit like this? This is just pure stupid distilled.
If we can pursue a course of action to fight the virus based on "models", surely we we can do the same for economic models.
What are economic models showing?
Krumhorn said...
The costs of this are immensely disproportionate to the situation. It’s not social distancing. It’s social conditioning. We’re being groomed for a real ass reaming.
Bingo.
Browndog said...
If we can pursue a course of action to fight the virus based on "models", surely we we can do the same for economic models.
What are economic models showing?
Small businesses getting crushed and all of their employees getting jobs as amazon delivery drivers.
It is almost as if the WAPO has a rooting interest in this disease.
Pants
If you can write off the lives of millions I can write off the time you would spend looking back for my answer.
precautionary principle can be counterproductive, then we're violating the Hippocratic oath with a fourth stimulus bill, Shirley,
Well..it was experts with models that drove Althouse to Wisconsin.
So..
if you apply enough leaches, the humours will dissipate or something,
Oh look:
Barack Obama
@BarackObama
·
1h
We've seen all too terribly the consequences of those who denied warnings of a pandemic. We can't afford any more consequences of climate denial. All of us, especially young people, have to demand better of our government at every level and vote this fall.
Ken B said...
Pants
If you can write off the lives of millions I can write off the time you would spend looking back for my answer.
Off the top of my head, was your answer something about testing clusters of houses every morning to see if anyone is sick, and if notary tests positive they can go out?
Browndog:”
What are economic models showing?”
Good question. I linked to some. Including an analysis of which cities were hurt most and least by the Spanish flu, economically. The answer there is that cities with lockdowns did better. And in general everyone agrees that testing based approaches are less costly.
MarginalRevolution has some stuff.
tim in vermont said...
Look punk-
I walked away yesterday as to not pollute these comments with dick slapping. I see you just moved on to other targets.
I asked you to lay off the personal attacks towards me. Apparently you're too stupid or have no self control not to.
So you think you found yourself a soft target, eh?
Fuck you. You want to act like a little prick, I'm here for you.
You have a choice.
if you focus on the microeconomic picture, you lose the macroeconomics, then you consider this plan doesn't really address the problem,
Ken, you’ve made it your mission to post hundreds of comments here over the last few weeks in order to educate the denialists. Surely you have time for one more.
Browndog:”
What are economic models showing?”
Good question. I linked to some. Including an analysis of which cities were hurt most and least by the Spanish flu, economically. The answer there is that cities with lockdowns did better. And in general everyone agrees that testing based approaches are less costly.
MarginalRevolution has some stuff.
What "staycation" do you speak of? I've been working about as much as I usually do, except I'm in my recliner instead of my desk.
Can we all at least agree on a couple things?
China should never again have 98%+ control of our vaccines and medicines supply chain.
China should never again have almost total control over production of our ventilators and respirators and everything else under the sun in terms of medical supplies.
We should never again allow the Federal Govt to completely wall off private industry for innovative pandemic response leadership.
We should always hold State Governments accountable for required stockpiling of pandemic response equipment on a scale larger than the CDC mandated prior to this event (and stop blaming the feds when the state leaders voluntarily chose to spend the money elsewhere, as in NY).
We should always hold Federal Governments accountable for required stockpiling of pandemic response equipment on a scale larger than the CDC mandated prior to this event.
We will never again allow a completely federal govt centralized, 1-shot to get it right, high risk approach to pandemic response in terms of testing, assessment, analysis and treatment development.
Shouting Thomas said...
This event, in my estimation of one of three things: (1) the usual 10 year peak flu epidemic, (2) a genetically engineered bioweapon or (3) a Black Swan viral event.
You don’t make grand plans for any of these. You respond to each as they occur.
Risk is the price of freedom. If you’re willing to shut down and give up your rights over this, we deserve what’s happening to our economy and daily lives.
At some point we are going to come down to it.
I am not willing to give up my freedom.
I am not going to allow this to continue. There are a lot more of us than there are people who will team up with the likes of Jay Inslee.
They are running public transportation in Washington State and it is FREE TO RIDE.
But you get a ticket if you leave your house.
The only people on the buses are the people living in the homeless camps. And it is free for them.
But they are going to start enforcing the stay at home orders.
210 people have died in Washington State over 3 months.
Fuck this shit.
Blogger Drago said...
Can we all at least agree on a couple things?
China should never again have 98%+ control of our vaccines and medicines supply chain.
China should never again have almost total control over production of our ventilators and respirators and everything else under the sun in terms of medical supplies.
We should never again allow the Federal Govt to completely wall off private industry for innovative pandemic response leadership.
We should always hold State Governments accountable for required stockpiling of pandemic response equipment on a scale larger than the CDC mandated prior to this event (and stop blaming the feds when the state leaders voluntarily chose to spend the money elsewhere, as in NY).
We should always hold Federal Governments accountable for required stockpiling of pandemic response equipment on a scale larger than the CDC mandated prior to this event.
We will never again allow a completely federal govt centralized, 1-shot to get it right, high risk approach to pandemic response in terms of testing, assessment, analysis and treatment development.
———
100%
(and seriously, why do people accuse other people of wanting millions of people to just die? Do you think that's helpful? Can't we assume we all want the best outcome, we all have different visions of how that can be achieved? We all appreciate life so very very much? If we started from the standpoint that we all want *the best thing* we wouldn't have to argue about that part of it any more)
"Tim. What number is acceptable to you? Is it zero?"
You start at 2.2 million and I start at zero? Zero is not on the table, 2.2 million is. I think that we are going to have to suck it up when the wave crests and take our chances and people are gonna die. I have been saying this all along. I think that shutting down Virginia until June 10th for example, is ridiculous. What I am not in favor of is contributing to the first wave when our first responders and health care workers are disproportionately hospitalized. We can build out capacity, and we can get past the first wave, after that, we can’t continue this shutdown.
2 million early deaths is not an acceptable price to me so that I can continue business as usual, and I have been hit significantly by this, in life affecting ways.
this isn't the vekakte Spanish flu, get a grip, if good forbid such a thing came to pass, too many are willing to sell out every liberty, for some elusive panacea, I wonder if that's how panem came to be, Obamacare was the magic elixir, pushed by every one of those journolister, rizzotto tray minions, did it improve out public health response, why or why not,
“If your assets were financed through the agencies the govt has forbidden eviction for three months. An invitation, of course, for tenants to not pay. My sources in the multi family business expect a 30% fall off in rents in April. “
“Good luck. But you might be wise to have a chat with your lenders to suggest a three month payment holiday. You will be glad you did.”
Thanks.
Fortunately, or unfortunately, we are essentially debt free. So the normal rules probably don’t apply. But we shall see. Still, we have recently had lines trying to get into our units, and partly, that is because we are a decently good landlord. We have tenants who have been in one of our units for better than a decade, and one or two, over two decades. And people who move away, then back and wait in line, esp for our 3 bedroom units in 4-plexus that have nice yards. Those are the types of tenants that you aren’t going to evict, if you possibly can help it.
It will be interesting how we fare compared to the average. One project has a lot of people on fixed incomes. I don’t expect big problems there. But another one has a bunch of grad students (we try not to rent to undergrads, since they are often flaky, often bailing in June, several months before the end of their year leases, and turning over units every year is expensive). The really interesting one though has a mixture of city government workers, hospital workers, and people working at the nearby shopping center. The shopping center workers are likely to be the most vulnerable, many already without work. If the groups are evenly split, we may see your 30% fall off rate.
Ken B said...
Pants
If you can write off the lives of millions I can write off the time you would spend looking back for my answer.
This is pure asshattery.
There was never a realistic case where millions of people die from COVID-19.
Never.
Exposure around the world is clearly universal. It was obviously spread widely all through January and well into February.
We had clear information this was particularly dangerous to certain populations.
It was never going to kill millions.
"Fuck you. You want to act like a little prick, I'm here for you.”
You can’t imagine how worried I am that you are going to poke holes in my arguments.
Ken B said...
If you can write off the lives of millions
This is the fantasy world these idiots are living in.
wake up ken, Pelosi and the rest of the progs want us as much a colony of china, as Italy was, dependent on their Wuhan infected blankets and test equipment, Cuomo committed criminal negligence in the misallocation of ppe, because skydragons might come upon us, of mayor bane, the less said the better,
Please do. I would love to be wrong.
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