[I]t will be a totally different ballgame of what happened when we first got hit with it in the beginning of this year. There’ll be several things that’ll be different. Our ability to go out and be able to test, identify, isolate, and contact trace will be orders of magnitude better than what it was just a couple of months ago. In addition, we have a number of clinical trials that are looking at a variety of therapeutic interventions. We hope one or more of them will be available. And importantly, as I mentioned to you many times at these briefings, is that we have a vaccine that’s on track and multiple other candidates.... What we’re going through now is going to be more than just lessons learned; it’s going to be things that we have available to us that we did not have before.Of course, I'm interested in the treatments and vaccines — the new things that we hope will become available. But I'd like to hear more discussion of the "lessons learned." Perhaps it's tactful for Fauci and the rest of the force not to talk about the lessons, but let me go ahead.
It's not just a matter of the President and other government figures getting it through their head that the projections of the epidemiologists are worth acting on early, before people can see or believe we're looking at a catastrophe. We the people are learning the lesson. And some of us have been slow on the uptake. Some remain in denial.
But this months-long mandatory staycation and pausing of the once-vibrant economy are teaching us — most of us — that it's bad to wait and see if it really does look bad. Go with the epidemiologists, and there will be a lot less pain. Next time, the President and the Governors and the mayors will think differently about what burdens and restrictions the people will put up with. And we'll be more impatient — next time around — if our leaders don't act quickly.
Posts
344 comments:
«Oldest ‹Older 201 – 344 of 344"What number is acceptable to you? Is it zero? Do we do this until no one is dying of CV?"
You don't do it by numbers because the point is that it spreads. Once you have a handle on existing cases and the testing and contact tracing in place, you're good to go. (You do have to get down to relatively low numbers to have a handle on them, but that's one of the purposes of what we're doing now.)
They should have done this from the beginning, but they didn't. Now we're suffering the consequences of their failure.
tim in vermont said...
"Tim. What number is acceptable to you? Is it zero?"
You start at 2.2 million and I start at zero? Zero is not on the table, 2.2 million is.
No it isn't. 2.2 million was never a real number. It was based off the stupid WHO lie of 3.4% mortality.
The WHO has lied about everything in this situation.
Maybe if you ran around with humidifiers full of COVID-19 infected water and distributed them to every retirement home in the country you could get to 2.2 million.
Using that number is just pure bullshit.
It seems to me we have hard data and proven formulas that would lend itself to somewhat accurate economic forecasting, far more so than virus modeling.
Like with the virus, that data would change daily.
When I ask what the economic models are saying, I'm saying nobody really knows because they're not being published or covered by the media.
They might not sit well with those comfortable in their staycation.
Maybe we can scare of the virus with bluster and threats!
Tim in Vermont I keep coming back to the Twilight Zone episode “Button Button” where a knock comes at the door and a package is delivered, it’s a box with a button and a note that if you press the button, you get one million dollars and somebody you don’t know dies.
Drama much?
We get it. You are the only one with human compassion and the rest of us are uncaring inhuman monsters.
Economics is more of a science than epidemiology. That’s a good one too.
Freeman Hunt said...
They should have done this from the beginning, but they didn't. Now we're suffering the consequences of their failure.
The failure you are talking about is with the WHO and with China.
By the time the rest of the world found out what was happening China shipped thousands of infected people all over the world.
Contact tracing was never going to work in the US as should be obvious to anyone at this point. It was already way to widespread even when Trump shut down travel to China and Pelosi was telling everyone to go to Chinatown and handing out impeachment pens.
The numbers just do not lie.
Once you have a handle on existing cases and the testing and contact tracing in place, you're good to go. (You do have to get down to relatively low numbers to have a handle on them, but that's one of the purposes of what we're doing now.)
What do you mean by "testing"? I believe Meade said yesterday he would want to test himself every morning before he went out. I think it was Ken B who was a propenent of testing a cluster of houses every morning before they went out, and if one in the cluster fails they all stay in. So what do you mean by testing?
Also....contract tracing. Do you support getting people's cell phone/GPS data to find out who they've been in touch with?
Tim, trees are not a good analogy. But let's stay with it. If the experts said 1% of your ash trees were going to die, would you cut them all down prophylactically for their own good? Or maybe just take them all inside and deny them sunshine and water for a few months,until it is safe again, then do it again in the fall.
"Maybe we can scare of the virus with bluster and threats!"
We should hang "NO COVID-19" signs right next to the "NO GUNS" signs on building entrances.
tim in vermont said...
Maybe we can scare of the virus with bluster and threats!
Maybe you people can stop saying stupid shit.
And if you want the real lessons, here you go:
Lesson #1: Do not trust the People's Republic of China. Ever. Do not trust WHO either as they are in thrall of the PRC.
Lesson #2: The United States needs to bring back critical industries required during a pandemic back to the United States. See Lesson #1. Relying on China to produce your respirators and pharmaceuticals is extremely foolish.
Lesson #3: Accurate testing is extremely useful and should be prioritized for controlling outbreaks before they get out of hand. How helpful this would have been in this case is unknown - I suspect that China was accidentally intentionally letting infected people travel around the world as early as December and maybe November - so it may have been too late to contain it here before anyone realized.
Lesson #4: Government bureaucracies are terrible. The CDC completely botched the testing regime. The FDA's red tape almost certainly will get a significant number of persons killed and most definitely delayed testing for at least a month. Worse yet the FDA is still holding things up and it appears Trump has to periodically force them to do things as the FDA seems to be under the delusion that this is not an emergency. Other government bureaucracies have not showered themselves in glory either. When I can seriously say that Andrew Cuomo is doing a far better job than the FDA, something is horribly wrong.
Lesson #5: Our media is awful and even more corrupted than anyone realized. These people are not only biased and incompetent, but a good portion of them appear to be genuinely horrible people.
The big lesson that is coming up is the economic impact of what we are doing. We may find the cure is worse than the disease, but that is to be determined.
they are pushing that rambling idiot biden, or commissar sanders, or this Albany satrap, or the other dozen plus idiots they wasted our time with,
Tim in Vermont- there was a movie that came out in the last decade or so with the same premise It was called The Box or The Gift or something. And SNL did this great fake movie trailer for it, where the people who got the box just started pressing the button as soon as they heard the deal, and the movie was over in like 2 minutes.
Thistlerose said,
"TreeJoe thanks for the link.
I went to the link and it has a chart showing the number of cases by state. Do we have any idea why New York is such an outlier in the number of cases compared to other states? New York has 3375 cases per million, CA has 177 per million and TX has 106 per million. The first cases were on the west coast in Washington state which just has 675 cases per million so I don't think that it's that they are way ahead of the curve. New York has 5 times the number of cases per million that Washington state does.
I know that New York city is the largest city in the US but CA and TX both have multiple large metropolitan areas, and their infection rate is much lower. New York is not even the most dense metropolitan area that's the LA area. https://www.worldatlas.com/articles/the-most-crowded-city-in-the-united-states.html"
There are too many variables for me to even speculate. However, please remember we are looking at test-positive cases, not actual cases. The number of tests done has been heavily driven by testing protocols, test availability, testing rigidity (i.e. how often healthcare providers actually order the test), etc.
One day we will have a better understanding of closer-to-actual numbers. But today we don't. We're constantly reacting to data that is, in effect, terribly out of date or questionable.
"If the experts said 1% of your ash trees were going to die”
That’s not the analogy. The analogy is that the bugs are going to continue to spread until they take over the whole state, just like they have many other states, and arguing that there are only a small number of infested trees now is completely irrelevant to that fact. That was the argument being made, is that the number of cases currently is small, as you may remember. The only thing that will stop them is some effective treatment, which has not been forthcoming for the trees, but hopefully will be forthcoming at some point for the Wuhan virus.
I’m done pissing into the wind here though.
"And SNL did this great fake movie trailer for it, where the people who got the box just started pressing the button as soon as they heard the deal, and the movie was over in like 2 minutes.”
Oh man, that’s good. LOL.
Meanwhile, in places that are not named Madison, there is a reality to social distancing that could lead, in not too short a time, to real and widespread bloodshed.
For the worlds poor, there is no such option as "social distancing". There is only starvation or fight.
And if one of those places is India (it is), and involves hundreds of millions of people (it does), and can lead to massive religious violence (it will), then you are lighting off a powder keg with reverberations possible across the globe:
Foreign Policy@ForeignPolicy
"For hundreds of Muslim individuals in New Delhi, 2020 has seen them be stripped of their homes in the citizenship law protests and now of their jobs as India goes under lockdown amid the coronavirus."
Foreign Policy@ForeignPolicy
"For people living in India’s crowded slums, social distancing isn’t an option,
@RanaAyyub writes."
No big deal. Just a quarter billion people...in a nation with nukes...with nothing to lose...and now even MORE nothing to lose...being told to hunker down in place...while their children starve and the trickle of power they get for a few hours a day disappears..and water becomes more scarce....with constant internal religious and political conflict with another group of poor people...that is also losing everything....but has close relations and ties to a hostile neighbor power...which also has nukes.
But hey, whatever.
And give a thought to our Southern border as well, assuming you are not an open borders democrat/LLR:
Foreign Policy@ForeignPolicy
With 2,500 asylum-seekers packed in tightly to this U.S.-Mexico border camp—and no coronavirus tests available—doctors and volunteers are doubtful education will be enough to prevent the spread of the virus.
There is little to no social distancing going on where people are desperate.
And in time, that desperation will start growing significantly here.
"What do you mean by "testing""
I don't know what standard outbreak control protocol is, but I would guess massive testing in areas of known exposure, contact and suspected cases. Maybe also regular sample of population testing--I don't know if they do that or how useful it is.
I’d like to see an example of epidemiologists’ warnings ignored by the Administration, particularly if they don’t fall into the Fauci designated “overstatement” category.
This “delay” stuff is a Biden/Democrat talking point. Since Democrats are obsessed with “scientists’ consensus” it would be edifying to see evidence of consensus among epidemiologists as to a course of action and to know when that was conveyed to Trump, et al.
Oh, I forgot to add to the conveyed part: In the midst of the bullshit impeachment distraction.
2.2 was never a *worst case*. The worst case was much higher, maybe 11 million. A long shot but not one to shrug off.
2.2 million was the projection of a more likely outcome if we did nothing. 1.1 was another projection.
If you think it’s silly then you must think Trump is silly for taking it seriously.
tim in vermont said...
"How many people are normally in the hospitals this time of year?”
Your question in no way gets to the heart of the matter. It’s a stupid question intended to mislead. It’s rhetorical math, something that sounds like mathematical reasoning, but isn’t. I learned all about it from Global Warming alarmists, it’s their specialty, like breathless headlines about Greenland melt being “nearly a record” over the past seventeen friggin’ years.
In a situation where thousands of people are infected with something and you tell them they have a 3.4% chance of dying if you have flu like symptoms you are going to get what we have now.
Everyone rushed to the hospital when they had the flu. 10% of them had COVID-19.
Now exposure to COVID-19 in hospitals and with health care workers is universal.
Good work tim.
Maybee
That plan was Kotlikoff's idea. I was not a proponent, but I do think it’s interesting. It deals well with the shortage of tests we face and offers the prospect of letting a lot of people return to work each day.
I am wondering why people think it obviously stupid.
don't know what standard outbreak control protocol is, but I would guess massive testing in areas of known exposure, contact and suspected cases. Maybe also regular sample of population testing--I don't know if they do that or how useful it is.
Because I don't know how realistic It is that there can be constant massive testing, I think a quick and dirty substitute would be to ask people to take their temperature every day before going out. If they have a fever, stay home.
I know that its possible to be contagious before you have a fever, but it would get a lot of people who are sick out the the population for a few days. It would help reduce exposure by a lot.
Thistlerose said,
"TreeJoe thanks for the link.
I went to the link and it has a chart showing the number of cases by state. Do we have any idea why New York is such an outlier in the number of cases compared to other states? New York has 3375 cases per million, CA has 177 per million and TX has 106 per million. The first cases were on the west coast in Washington state which just has 675 cases per million so I don't think that it's that they are way ahead of the curve. New York has 5 times the number of cases per million that Washington state does.
I know that New York city is the largest city in the US but CA and TX both have multiple large metropolitan areas, and their infection rate is much lower. New York is not even the most dense metropolitan area that's the LA area. https://www.worldatlas.com/articles/the-most-crowded-city-in-the-united-states.html"
There are too many variables for me to even speculate. However, please remember we are looking at test-positive cases, not actual cases. The number of tests done has been heavily driven by testing protocols, test availability, testing rigidity (i.e. how often healthcare providers actually order the test), etc.
One day we will have a better understanding of closer-to-actual numbers. But today we don't. We're constantly reacting to data that is, in effect, terribly out of date or questionable.
I am wondering why people think it obviously stupid.
Maybe I'm just not a visionary, but I don't see how we have the infrastructure or supplies for such a thing. Or when we could possibly get them up and running.
Did you have a different idea?
Ken B said...
2.2 was never a *worst case*. The worst case was much higher, maybe 11 million. A long shot but not one to shrug off.
2.2 million was the projection of a more likely outcome if we did nothing. 1.1 was another projection.
If you think it’s silly then you must think Trump is silly for taking it seriously.
Trump is dealing with 3 things:
1. We have a hostile press that is agenda driven to create a panic. The WAPO has obvious goals in crushing small businesses and driving everyone to Amazon.
2. We have a hostile federal bureaucracy that has clearly failed, hates Trump, and really hates the American people.
3. Trump realizes that we are a bunch of herd animals and he is trying to calm the stampede.
11 million was never a real number either. That is just a stupid lie. One of many you have told.
I am an epidemiologist, ask me almost anything.
tim in vermont said...
Economics is more of a science than epidemiology. That’s a good one too.
Ankle biting little bitch that has to nip at every comment posted said something.
Ken B said...
2.2 was never a *worst case*. The worst case was much higher, maybe 11 million. A long shot but not one to shrug off.
2.2 million was the projection of a more likely outcome if we did nothing. 1.1 was another projection.
If you think it’s silly then you must think Trump is silly for taking it seriously.
Note Ken's Motte and Bailey. The bailey is that "doing nothing" includes a death toll in the millions. The Motte is that people support "doing nothing". He pretends people support doing nothing because it allows him to preen and insult others. But when challenged he drops that element of his accusation and retreats to the "millions will die" statement as if that is the issue. The question of course is if measures could be less restrictive while still achieving the same goal. We'll never have that discussion because people like Ken prefer strawmen and dogmatism only possible by misrepresenitng the issues.
Bonus points for people doing this lecturing others on nuance.
What a dishonest sack of shit.
Freeman Hunt: "I don't know what standard outbreak control protocol is, but I would guess massive testing in areas of known exposure, contact and suspected cases. Maybe also regular sample of population testing--I don't know if they do that or how useful it is."
The Obiden-bama admin/FDA/CDC consolidated the entire effort under the Fed Govt roof and their operational vision for pandemic response would be a methodical, slow, test kit development process that would then roll out in a very limited way to only targeted people under specific pre-established criteria.
Basically, if you wanted to design and implement a strategy, policies, decision-making processes and organizational structure and zero external relationships in place for rapid scale up that was tailor made for ineffective and failed widespread pandemic response, well, that is EXACTLY what we had in place going into this.
Further, if what little capability you had in place for development of medicines and vaccines and necessary equipment was completely at the mercy and control of your largest Geo-political foe who seeks to undercut your nation at every turn in order to move to numero uno globally, well, we had that too!
And on top of all that, Fed and State stockpilers of "stuff" long ago made tradeoff decisions regarding critical equipment that left us short of necessary gear at the very moment we needed it most.
In New York's case, Cuomo's admin literally created a strategy of purposeful non-stocking of equipment (ventilators, etc) in order to use the cash to fund solar/green energy projects in the state. But not to worry, because in place of the ventilators, Cuomo's team instead offered up a revised Triage plan which meant some people were just going to have to go without.
Because windmills.
TreeJoe said...
I went to the link and it has a chart showing the number of cases by state. Do we have any idea why New York is such an outlier in the number of cases compared to other states?
Business center with a lot of foreign travel.
Very dense population density.
Ideal temperature and humidity levels during a specific band of time.
Widespread exposure before more than 500 people in the country knew the term COVID-19.
"Because I don't know how realistic It is that there can be constant massive testing,"
Not massive testing generally. Only in areas where you have cases. One place pops is, gets controlled, disappears. Next place pops up, control, disappear. Etc.
"I think a quick and dirty substitute would be to ask people to take their temperature every day before going out. If they have a fever, stay home."
That seems like a great idea for people nationwide. But if you don't also do the above part, it looks like you can still end up with huge, uncontrolled outbreaks because the time to onset of symptoms for this virus is so long.
Doing both sounds like a good strategy.
"The Obiden-bama admin/FDA/CDC consolidated the entire effort under the Fed Govt roof and their operational vision for pandemic response would be a methodical, slow, test kit development process that would then roll out in a very limited way to only targeted people under specific pre-established criteria."
Yes, that was really stupid, and now people are dead.
Freeman Hunt said...
"What do you mean by "testing""
I don't know what standard outbreak control protocol is, but I would guess massive testing in areas of known exposure, contact and suspected cases. Maybe also regular sample of population testing--I don't know if they do that or how useful it is.
It would be completely useless in dealing with COVID-19.
It would be very useful in setting up a police state.
I can only imagine Obama or Hillary or Romney or Cuomo or Inslee or Bush sitting in their office and chortling at the prospect of having the power to shut down entire towns and cities if they... "have too many cases of COVID-19"
Very dense population density.
Related: reliance on mass transit especially subways.
Okay, Triangle Man, how would you design a testing isolating for approach?
Achilles: "Business center with a lot of foreign travel.
Very dense population density.
Ideal temperature and humidity levels during a specific band of time.
Widespread exposure before more than 500 people in the country knew the term COVID-19."
Don't forget State and Local leaders adamently opposed to travel bans and always encouraging people to get out and mingle! Long after the contagion had become recognized as dangerous.
Because it was more important to them to virtue signal that OrangeManBad was, in fact, a Very Bad Orange Man.
I will refrain from posting all the announcements from Cuomo and Deblasio and the NYC Health Commissioner encouraging everyone to get out there together and celebrate!
At the very same time the italians were standing up to OrangeManBad by allowing hundreds and thousands of Chinese visitors and business folks from Wuhan into their nation and telling everyone to "hug a Chinese person!".
Hooray! So very very woke.
"It deals well with the shortage of tests we face and offers the prospect of letting a lot of people return to work each day."
Agree widespread testing opens up possibilities. "Letting" is the key word. The benevolent state will let you out to your own business or to seek work if you can prove to them that you are immune or virus-free? Maybe force you to wear an armband to signify approved status. Or a numerical tattoo.
Without some enforcers, massive non-compliance would result. People desperate for income would declare themselves cured and seek work. Cant have that.
TreeJoe said
There are too many variables for me to even speculate.
--
Perhaps international exposure + how folks get to and fro on a daily basis.
I love the idea of having to have my temperature taken online before getting permission to leave my house...
This will not happen.
Police are never going to lock down neighborhoods and go house to house "testing everyone for COVID-19."
Social order will break down first and we are all going to have a talk about the cost of freedom.
On California:
As of yesterday, California had 2/3s of the tests run still pending. Based on the test data actually reported, it is likely that California would have had 20,000 cases at least.
The deaths may or not be underreported by the same factor- it is has been unclear all along exactly how the deaths are being assigned to COVID-19- are these people who were tested while alive, tested positive, then died; or are they a mix of such people along with people who died of respiratory failure and then were tested positive for the disease?
These are just caveats to keep in mind when looking at data- as I warned repeatedly, you need to see a decrease in the percentage of positives at the state level to determine that the disease is, in fact, abating in that state. However, you can't assume it is spreading more quickly just because new cases are going up- I have pointed out multiple times that for pretty much every jurisdiction, new cases is directly proportional to the numbers of new test run in that jurisdiction. The ratio of positives to negatives in one state to another is largely controlled by the guidelines being used for administering a test- some states will allow you to just have a fever, others require you to have had direct contact with a known previous case plus a fever, a dry cought etc. In other words, states have differing biases in test selection pool.
What will eventually become clearer, though, is the effect of panic in different jurisdictions. In northern Italy, New York City and the metropolitan area, Spain, France, and the UK, what has happened is that people panic rushed the hospitals and clinics, and the doctors responded by filling the hospitals with such patients whether it was really required or not. I think it is literally insane to go to an ER unless you really do have ARDS, and I think it insane to house such patients in hospitals with every other person in there with some other ailment. This is the great incompetence being demonstrated- not segregating the COVID-19 admittees and their own staff in completely separate facilities. I am stunned at this level of stupidity from the so-called experts.
" can only imagine Obama or Hillary or Romney or Cuomo or Inslee or Bush sitting in their office and chortling at the prospect of having the power to shut down entire towns and cities if they... "have too many cases of COVID-19""
As I understand it, according to other conservatives who special in Constitutional law, hey already have that power.
So no one has an answer as to how many CV cases or deaths we can live with. Just a bunch of vague fantasizing about “testing.”
Noted.
Freeman Hunt said...
Okay, Triangle Man, how would you design a testing isolating for approach?
I know you have a thing for charging down slippery slopes and you don't deal well with disagreement. You might look at that.
Isolate the at risk populations until there are available treatments and mitigations or we achieve herd immunity.
Everyone else deal with it.
Like we do with the flu.
Which will kill more people this year than COVID-19.
Achilles- I'm not thinking of having to report your temperature online. You take it, you know whether you should go out or not. Holding yourself accountable.
Freeman Hunt said...
" can only imagine Obama or Hillary or Romney or Cuomo or Inslee or Bush sitting in their office and chortling at the prospect of having the power to shut down entire towns and cities if they... "have too many cases of COVID-19""
As I understand it, according to other conservatives who special in Constitutional law, hey already have that power.
And it was only used in truly important situations like WWII or the Civil War.
Now we are using it when several thousand people die of a virus because China and the WHO lied to us.
Hmm...
I think it is time to rethink allowing them to have this power at all.
Isolate the at risk populations until there are available treatments and mitigations or we achieve herd immunity.
Everyone else deal with it.
Which is the inevitable outcome anyway.
Ken B- you said you had written an answer, and that was the best I could find. Did you write a different answer elsewhere?
MayBee said...
Achilles- I'm not thinking of having to report your temperature online. You take it, you know whether you should go out or not. Holding yourself accountable.
Sure.
That is reasonable.
That is not what is happening. Inslee has announced he is going to have police issue tickets to people who leave their houses.
This is happening today in this country.
Currently 3431 people have died in the US.
We do not deserve the freedom millions of US Military servicemen died for.
"Okay, Triangle Man, how would you design a testing isolating for approach?"
"I know you have a thing for charging down slippery slopes and you don't deal well with disagreement. You might look at that."
How does your comment follow from my comment?
A RT-PCR test is a snap shot of your status at the moment the swab was taken. With the numbers we are talking about today, contact tracing is a bad joke. No one is doing this any longer to any great degree- the states and federal government just don't have the manpower to contact the 150,000 x 10 x 10 etc. number of people that such a regime would have to do- and that very large number just grows with each new case. The best you can do with mass testing is to identify to each individual who has to isolate, but all the ones who don't have to, have to be tested again the next day, and so on.
And think about the logistics here- just who exactly is going to take swabs from every person in a jurisdiction every day, every other day, every week? It is already likely that the testing regime we have now is responsible for some significant and measurable fraction of the disease's spread. Do you honestly think these samplers are changing their gloves every time they take a swab from the nose of a person with flu-like symptoms? Do you honestly believe they all do this properly?
Even if that's true the result will be taxing workers more to ensure pensioners don't suffer. Democratic politics always means favored classes like government employees never share the pain.
The problem with increasing taxes to fund government pension plans is that the tax payers can move to another state or city to avoid the taxes. Des Moines natives are getting angry at the Californians who are driving up the cost of housing there because California companies are moving to the area.
I think we set up an infrastructure to get food and supplies to the at-risk populations. We have the grab and go meals for school children, but maybe a meals on wheels plus for other populations. They don't all want it - I've had a hard time convincing my parens to stay home- but we are a free people.
We let people work and we ask for what we at one time were calling social distancing until we kept that name and went on lockdown. If there's is a company concerned about it's workers, it takes temperature readings of them.
People can still go to AA meetings. Colleges can open. Schools open.
In other words--- we do what we started doing before we went with this full on lockdown. But now hospitals have a better understanding of when to admit people. And the government has a better plan for getting alternate facilities up and run-in.
Yancy- exactly
That is not what is happening. Inslee has announced he is going to have police issue tickets to people who leave their houses.
This is happening today in this country.
It's happening in my rural Michigan county. Sheriff is actually pulling people over just for driving. $500 fine if not "essential worker", exemptions be damned.
Browndog- I've heard that, but it's weird because you are allowed to go to the store or check on relatives. So driving other than to essential work is allowed.
Browndog,
Isn't the grocery store a valid reason?
"I think that shutting down Virginia until June 10th for example, is ridiculous."
I think it ridiculous, too, but you have to explain why you think it is ridiculous- based on all your other comments, Ken, I don't see why you think this particular decision is ridiculous.
Anthony Fauci talked about what will happen in the fall:
"[I]t will be a totally different ballgame of what happened when we first got hit with it in the beginning of this year. There’ll be several things that’ll be different. Our ability to go out and be able to test, identify, isolate, and contact trace will be orders of magnitude better than what it was just a couple of months ago. In addition, we have a number of clinical trials that are looking at a variety of therapeutic interventions. We hope one or more of them will be available. And importantly, as I mentioned to you many times at these briefings, is that we have a vaccine that’s on track and multiple other candidates.... What we’re going through now is going to be more than just lessons learned; it’s going to be things that we have available to us that we did not have before."
I understand the need for contact tracing. I wonder what methods and resources will be available to do it at a macro level. Electronic surveillance? Or good old fashioned medical detective work. Either way it will require a lot of data gathering and crunching to make it useful.
"Go with the epidemiologists, and there will be a lot less pain. Next time, the President and the Governors and the mayors will think differently about what burdens and restrictions the people will put up with. And we'll be more impatient — next time around — if our leaders don't act quickly."
More impatient? Or inured? I guess we'll see, if it happens.
walter said...
Browndog,
Isn't the grocery store a valid reason?
Nope.
I found out about it at the grocery store where a handful of people had just gotten a ticket on the way there. The said the "excuse of going to the grocery store was not be be believed" according to the police.
Freeman Hunt said...
"Okay, Triangle Man, how would you design a testing isolating for approach?"
"I know you have a thing for charging down slippery slopes and you don't deal well with disagreement. You might look at that."
How does your comment follow from my comment?
I googled Triangle Man. People always have their ways of lashing out.
This isn't the first slippery slope you have encountered. Statue removal is another slippery slope.
Just promoting self awareness.
Triangle Man said...
I am an epidemiologist, ask me almost anything
What businesses are essential?
What is the financial cost of implementing the safer at home protocol?
How many lives will be saved by implementing the safer at home protocol?
What is the acceptable cost in destroyed lives among people who do not have COVID 19 or have already recovered but still must isolate, have no income, and lose homes or businesses or spouses or all of the above?
Does one size fit all in terms of a remedy? Please explain.
Why didn't epidemiologists at the CDC do a better job in predicting or reacting to the events in Wuhan?
Does mass transit facilitate the spread of disease?
Is mass transit the way we do it in the US a good idea?
Do people who fail to take care of themselves due to choices they make like poor diet, drug use, lack of exercise, etc. more susceptible to the severe complications of COVID? Do they bear any responsibility for self isolating while allowing the rest to work and carry on?
Why are minority communities, such as the black community in Milwaukee, which as of yesterday had 100% of the deaths in Milwaukee County, getting hit harder?
Does the "share" culture of urban America (rides, scooters, bikes, offices) facilitate the spread of disease?
If any of the previous five questions was yes, what should be done about it, epidemiologically-speaking?
MayBee said...
Browndog- I've heard that, but it's weird because you are allowed to go to the store or check on relatives. So driving other than to essential work is allowed.
Apparently it's being done at the directive of the Clare County prosecutor. I have important business at the courthouse tomorrow and will try to find out what exactly is going on.
Ron Winkleheimer said...
The problem with increasing taxes to fund government pension plans is that the tax payers can move to another state or city to avoid the taxes. Des Moines natives are getting angry at the Californians who are driving up the cost of housing there because California companies are moving to the area.
Obviously this creates problems but that doesn't stop it from happening. Illinois has a bigger problem than California. There it's routine for state pensioners to move out of state to reduce their own taxes even as they are the primary beneficiaries of ever increasing taxes on those they leave behind. The only action by state politicians is to increase taxes at every opportunity. Eventually the Feds will bail out the state because there's always someone else who can be forced to pay so Dem constituencies don't have to suffer.
Yancey
Re Virginia
Any order lasting that long is silly on its face. Too many unknowns.
Nor do I think all parts of Virginia need the same response.
Some countries are asking people to voluntarily download apps that gather location data that is stored on the user's device. (No central database for government to access.) Then when someone is infected, they can voluntarily allow that data to be downloaded to help with contact tracing. Also, the infected the user's key (not phone number) is broadcast to other users, and their devices notify them if they ever picked up a Bluetooth signal from a phone with that key.
“ Currently 3431 people have died in the US.”
Talk to Fled
"I googled Triangle Man. People always have their ways of lashing out."
Triangle Man is the username of someone in this thread who said he was an epidemiologist.
Triangle Man said...
I am an epidemiologist, ask me almost anything.
3/31/20, 12:36 PM
Downloading apps
Lol
Freeman, do you know any poor people? People who don’t have the time of day for your stuff while people like, “math is fun” bullshit?
Where I live people pass the time sitting on buckets outside llanterias (google it) and make their living swapping illicit Tide.
I’m sure they’ll get right in downloading your app.
Your fantasy world would be hilarious if it wasn’t so infuriating. You think your stay at home ideas about the world give you the authority to crash everyone’s else’s life?
Browndog,
Not to be believed, indeed.
I can understand the desire for "revenue enhancement" during reduced traffic, but "Come on, man!"
Browndog said...
The said the "excuse of going to the grocery store was not be be believed" according to the police.
Plan to contest the ticket and request help from a libertarian lawyer. The police are wilfully violating the law and are subject to sanction.
Question: If the incubation period is 14 days, and we are now all supposed to be in quasi-quarantine, and the major risk groups are known, may we assume that any old or previously sick person who shows signs of infection past the next 14 days did not abide by the quarantine regimen and avoid any contact with any possible source of infection?
Pants, someone asked about using phone data. A close relative is involved right now in creating contact-tracing solutions for some other countries. I explained how one thing worked.
What is your problem?
"You think your [economic ideas] about the world give you the authority to crash everyone’s else’s life?" — Pants Thunberg
Go with the epidemiologists, and there will be a lot less pain.
Go tell that to the gravestones of AIDS victims who died because epidemiological methods (like contact tracing) were forbidden by law, all to advance a political agenda.
Epidemiology became political. Orgasms trumped lives.
Epidemiology is still political, but now fear trumps liberty.
"Go with the epidemiologists, and there will be ..."
a never ending confinement?
As for why New York is the worst example in the US- international travel surely gave the state a leg up on the start. It is quite likely that New York always had the most infected of all the states in the US, but it took time for New York to test more people than Washington state had tested. Additionally, I can't imagine a better general way to spread such an infection than mass transportation and cabs- these things don't get cleaned all that often. Also, I think it will found that living in large apartment complexes will be a key factor- and I am talking about complexes in the range of 100+ units in a building-especially the legacy public housing buildings. Shared air/sewage systems and elevation infrastructure with 200-2000 different people every day of every year. I would love to see a break down of cases and deaths based on housing types.
Pants, someone asked about using phone data. A close relative is involved right now in creating contact-tracing solutions for some other countries. I explained how one thing worked.
What is your problem?
If I intruded on a specific response you were making to someone else, I apologize. I took your comment to be a 'look at this neato idea' general remark to the room.
My problem: arrogance, elitism, indifference to suffering
They piss me off every time. Sorry.
MayBee: "we do what we started doing before we went with this full on lockdown"
Exactly. And after the next two weeks, it is the primary responsibility of the risk groups to stay out of the way. Anyone is welcome to help them, and I am in favor of organizing that help--as long as the targeted quarantine is strict and enforced.
I'm sensing a turning of the tide in the comments here. Sanity overtaking panic. And that's among a group of, I would guess, relatively privileged internetters, who might ride out the devastation without ruining their lives.
But arguments are beside the point. Stein's law rules: what can't last, won't.
“Your fantasy world would be hilarious if it wasn’t so infuriating. You think your stay at home ideas about the world give you the authority to crash everyone’s else’s life?”
“What is your problem?”
She’s cranky because her little girl is missing her ballet lessons?
So, Ken, looking at the data, which places can be taken off of lockdowns?
"You think your [economic ideas] about the world give you the authority to crash everyone’s else’s life?" — Pants Thunberg
It's almost as though there are two potential looming calamities, and half the people think the other half are insufficiently exercised about the one they find most relevant and likely.
It's almost as though the pot calls the kettle black. (I include myself in this remark)
“My problem: arrogance, elitism, indifference to suffering.”
Do you realize that’s how you come across?
She’s cranky because her little girl is missing her ballet lessons?
While that does suck and is unfair, the point was always that her ballet teacher would presumably like to have a job and be able to pay her rent. Not sure if you missed that or are pretending to have missed that because you like to lob potshots.
Inga said...She’s cranky because her little girl is missing her ballet lessons?
Remember these are people who pretend to care about people's economic circumstances - until a better cudgel comes along.
@Freeman
"It depends" [that answer is how you know I am a real epidemiologist]
Realistically, there isn't one answer that is going to work for every place or situation depending on how far along the epidemic has progressed and how fast it is moving. Hypothetically, if *everyone* could be tested every few days, you could think about effective individual-level isolation and contact tracing. That kind of approach could replace the broad geographic isolation policies we see now. Testing is a tool that can open more targeted, less-restrictive, options.
“While that does suck and is unfair, the point was always that her ballet teacher would presumably like to have a job and be able to pay her rent. Not sure if you missed that or are pretending to have missed that because you like to lob potshots.”
Ah, you must’ve forgot your lamentations about your family’s life being turned upside down. As IF no one else’s life has been affected.
Yeah, I asked about contact tracking because I am concerned government will just start getting our data from Facebook/Apple?Google/At&T without asking us because....pandemic.
So Freeman answered about an app, which sounds good as long as its optional, but Pants has a valid concern too.
Inslee has announced he is going to have police issue tickets to people who leave their houses.
HA HA HA...Fat chance of that happening throughout the State.
Fantasy Island.
Some countries are asking people to voluntarily download apps that gather location data that is stored on the user's device. (No central database for government to access.) Then when someone is infected, they can voluntarily allow that data to be downloaded to help with contact tracing. Also, the infected the user's key (not phone number) is broadcast to other users, and their devices notify them if they ever picked up a Bluetooth signal from a phone with that key.
Don't want the Gubbmnit to track you. Just leave your phone at home. It isn't welded to your hands. Problem solved. You look like you are always inside.
No one will ever figure that work around out....duh.
"If I intruded on a specific response you were making to someone else, I apologize. I took your comment to be a 'look at this neato idea' general remark to the room.
Yes, it was a specific response about an actual thing being used. Not something from a "fantasy world" of "stay at home ideas." And if it had been a "neato idea," I guess it would have been a good one.
"Don't want the Gubbmnit to track you. Just leave your phone at home. It isn't welded to your hands. Problem solved. You look like you are always inside.
"No one will ever figure that work around out....duh."
It's voluntary, so the work around would be to not download it.
I wonder if Obama's tweet was "helpful"
Where is Greta these days?
Yes, it was a specific response about an actual thing being used. Not something from a "fantasy world" of "stay at home ideas
Sorry, but the fantasy is the idea that everyone is going to comply with being trapped in their homes by the government and having their every move tracked. Maybe other countries that are already socialist or socialistic leaning might be cowed enough to moo and amble along.
I don't see this happening as a wide spread voluntary action. Besides being Unconstitutional, people won't put up with it for any length of time. If only a few people decide to give up their freedom of movement and right to privacy the whole idea is just a bust. A fantasy.
Dream on.
It's voluntary, so the work around would be to not download it.
Then there is no point to the app since the idea is that everyone needs to be tracked. A waste of time.
There is this false belief that the economy can be put on "pause" for a few months and then restarted seamlessly. The world doesn't work this way. There is also this belief that you can put part of it on pause, and the "essential" part of it keeps delivering the essential goods while everyone is on "staycation". The world also doesn't work that way- the economy is intertwined in ways few people even partially understand, and no one understands fully.
What we are going to get is at least magnitude worse than the Great Recession of 2008-2010. In the Great Recession, only shrank for 1 year and only 4% in that- every function continued to actually to operate, but most in just a tiny bit smaller fashion. The most optimistic predictions now are that the economy shrinks by 30% this coming quarter (starts tomorrow), but that isn't a 30% decrease across the board with all function operating at the 70% level- we could deal with that fairly easily- that is entire sectors completely shut down, all with the ridiculous hope this doesn't disrupt the sectors politicians are calling "essential". Right now, we are increasingly living off inventory. A month from now, it will be worse.
"Some countries are asking people to voluntarily download apps that gather location data that is stored on the user's device."
No way in hell I'm voluntarily loading a tracking app onto my device. The government has earned my mistrust (many times over).
Not that there's anything to track in my case. I'm not going anywhere.
"Then there is no point to the app since the idea is that everyone needs to be tracked. A waste of time."
Just another tool among many. These places are still doing the normal things, like interviews, for contact tracing.
Just another tool among many
Yeah. Just like taking a hammer to a logging site and expecting to be able to chop down trees. Tools...tools....what difference does it make?
"There is this false belief that the economy can be put on "pause" for a few months and then restarted seamlessly."
Right. #StopTheInsanity. Or some very upset people, much less nice than the commentators on this blog, will stop it.
(1) "It's not just a matter of the President and other government figures getting it through their head that the projections of the epidemiologists are worth acting on early, before people can see or believe we're looking at a catastrophe. "
Serious question: What were prominent epidemiologists saying publicly about coronavirus in January and early February, when we could have gotten ahead of things? This wasn't on my radar then, so I wasn't paying much attention. I know that WHO was still saying it wasn't a communicable disease, until January 30th. Were there others who were better?
(2) Browndog said...
"To believe we are in lockdown to contain the virus is to believe the virus can be contained.
To believe we are in lockdown to flatten the curve and not overwhelm the system is to believe there will be another spike and overwhelm the system once the lockdown is lifted."
This is one of the things that worries me. We're taking drastic actions without a clear idea of the goal or what victory looks like. Traditionally, that's how we make major blunders.
(3) I Have Misplaced My Pants said...
"It's almost as though there are two potential looming calamities, and half the people think the other half are insufficiently exercised about the one they find most relevant and likely."
This too. We're trying to find the right path between two potential future horrors with very little solid basis to calculate the very real human costs of each.
And we're doing it while many of our leaders are still trying to score political points rather than help or even take it seriously.
"These places are still doing the normal things, like interviews, for contact tracing."
I am quite sure there are people whose job is to do this exclusively, but I promise you that most of the confirmed cases today are not being interviewed extensively or in a timely fashion, and their contacts are definitely not being interviewed- only notified, if that. It is just that beyond a certain number of cases, the contacts and the contacts' contacts truly do expand in a massive and exponential way.
Contact tracing works well when the disease being tracked doesn't have casual transmission like, for example STDs or even Ebola. The vast majority of people with STDs haven't slept with 10 or even 2 people. A person with COVID-19, though, will likely have been in contact with at least 10 people he can remember off the top of his head, and each of those 10 people will have had contact with another 10 people. For example, New York state had 6600 new cases yesterday. To do meaningful contact tracing, you have to interview all 6600, and you need to do it within a day, and they have to tell you all the people and locations they had contact with in at least 7 days prior to their positive test, and then you have to contact all those people and places and at least give them a cursory interview about symptoms, etc. I doubt a single person could do more than 10 such traces in a day, and probably not even 3 or 4- at least not effectively enough to make difference.
"“Listen to the experts” at this point becomes political. Which experts?"
Why the ones that say OrangeManBadKiller,of course.
Never the WHO, Balasio or Biden.
"I am quite sure there are people whose job is to do this exclusively, but I promise you that most of the confirmed cases today are not being interviewed extensively or in a timely fashion, and their contacts are definitely not being interviewed- only notified, if that. It is just that beyond a certain number of cases, the contacts and the contacts' contacts truly do expand in a massive and exponential way."
Yes, I know. I'm talking about what they're doing right now in some other countries. If we get a break this summer and the case numbers plummet, the hope is that we will start the fall with a low enough case volume to focus on testing and contract tracing too. Obviously we can't keep doing what we're doing now.
No way in hell I'm voluntarily loading a tracking app onto my device
It's already there. The only question is when, by whom, and how often, it's shared or exploited.
Blogger tim in vermont said...
"Tim. What number is acceptable to you? Is it zero?"
2 million early deaths is not an acceptable price to me so that I can continue business as usual, and I have been hit significantly by this, in life affecting ways.
So, how much is a human life worth to you? 1 million dollars? 10 million?
Because we've just spent $2 trillion on a Chinese Coronavirus disaster recovery law. That's $1 million for each of those 2 million supposed "early deaths".
And that's not counting the damage done to the US economy from all those businesses being forced to shut down.
So, how many deaths do you claim this is stopping, and how much is each one of those "early deaths" (1/2 of which are in people in the "relatively soon to die anyway" category) worth?
Give us some numbers, please.
Here's a starter: how much life insurance do you have on yourself? Does that not tell us how much more you think you are worth alive, than dead?
"It's already there. The only question is when, by whom, and how often, it's shared or exploited."
I assume so, but I'm not volunteering my help. I practice digital distancing. No Facebook, etc. This is the only place I hang out.
Serious question: What were prominent epidemiologists saying publicly about coronavirus in January and early February, when we could have gotten ahead of things?
Here is the January 12, 2020 statement by WHO.
The evidence is highly suggestive that the outbreak is associated with exposures in one seafood market in Wuhan. The market was closed on 1 January 2020. At this stage, there is no infection among healthcare workers, and no clear evidence of human to human transmission. The Chinese authorities continue their work of intensive surveillance and follow up measures, as well as further epidemiological investigations.
January 30, 2020 WHO report.
The Committee believes that it is still possible to interrupt virus spread, provided that countries put in place strong measures to detect disease early, isolate and treat cases, trace contacts, and promote social distancing measures commensurate with the risk. It is important to note that as the situation continues to evolve, so will the strategic goals and measures to prevent and reduce spread of the infection. The Committee agreed that the outbreak now meets the criteria for a Public Health Emergency of International Concern and proposed the following advice to be issued as Temporary Recommendations.
The Committee emphasized that the declaration of a PHEIC should be seen in the spirit of support and appreciation for China, its people, and the actions China has taken on the frontlines of this outbreak, with transparency, and, it is to be hoped, with success.
Trump stopped flights from China 1/31/2020./
At this point, sharply curtailing air travel to and from China is more of an emotional or political reaction, said Dr. Michael T. Osterholm, an epidemiologist and director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota.
“The cow’s already out of the barn,” he said, ”and we’re now talking about shutting the barn door.”
So much for epidemiologists' opinions.
Original Mike said...
No way in hell I'm voluntarily loading a tracking app onto my device. The government has earned my mistrust (many times over).
Not that there's anything to track in my case. I'm not going anywhere.
There is no need to download any app.
Even if you turn off GPS they can track you everywhere you go quite accurately. I can tell you how. It was my job in the army.
I guarantee you are now cynical enough.
Michael K said...
Trump stopped flights from China 1/31/2020./
At this point, sharply curtailing air travel to and from China is more of an emotional or political reaction, said Dr. Michael T. Osterholm, an epidemiologist and director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota.
“The cow’s already out of the barn,” he said, ”and we’re now talking about shutting the barn door.”
Welp!
Trump is dealing with a contagious situation but it has little to do with a virus.
"Even if you turn off GPS they can track you everywhere you go quite accurately. I can tell you how. It was my job in the army."
Oh, I'm sure. Though my phone is often off-off and sitting in a drawer at home. Not because I'm paranoid but because I don't use it much.
WHO fucked up. Big time. Think there will be any consequences? Me neither.
In reading Barry's The Great Influenza," he mentions that a New York City epidemiologist in 1930 recommended against burying telegraph lines as they might stir up miasmas.
The chief Epidemiologist of the US in 1918 dismissed the theory that the Influenza Epidemic was caused by "germs." Remember that viruses are not visible in microscopes.
Oh crap.
Now I have to worry about escaped cows' miasmas too.
I'm looking at you, Townshend.
Seems to me the Althouses of the country are the problem. Through their selfishness ( I don’t care how much you people out of work suffer, you have to sacrifice to save me and my kind), they and our viciously moronic media have buffaloed weak politicians into this brain dead one size fits all approach. Stupid stupid stupid.
I live in Tucson. Tucson is NOT the same as NYC. But we all must stay home, and our workers, who are at minimal risk for serious Wuhan illness, must stay home and lose their income because our governor is a coward who couldn’t handle the pressure of lefties pushing on him.
Have any of you noticed how good news averse the unaffected staycation/pause crowd is? Whether it’s private industry jumping in and performing miraculously on short notice, potential efficacy of the off label use of the malaria drugs, arrival of the hospital ships, etc, the good news just bounces off them and they continue to see doom all around. I don’t understand it, although they are inordinate consumers of MSM, and entirely credulous of anything that fits the narrative they’ve chosen to believe. Which go hand in hand.
Almost like they expect the earth to burn up in the next 10 years. Oh wait, it’s the same crowd.
As for those of you throwing around the 2.5 million death bullshit, that was if we did NOTHING. Which from the day Trump created his task force while being impeached, followed shortly by cutting off China, ceased to be a straw man worth honest dialogue.
I live in Tucson. Tucson is NOT the same as NYC. But we all must stay home,
Thank God, I live just over the line in the County. That lefty Mayor would like to see firing squads. They all would.
Meade says “Pants Thunberg”. How empathetic of you from your staycation retirement bubble.
Michael K, the lefty mayor’s firing squads would end up on the wrong end of the gun barrel. Arizonans don’t lack for guns or ammo.
By the way, all, LA’s Mayor Garcetti, son of the idiot that managed to botch the OJ trial, openly boasted of being able to track people violating the house arrest (that’s pretty much what it is folks) edict he issued by monitoring their cell phone data.
Do you know what would be helpful?
If we had a national news media that was focused on objective, factual reporting.
When few people trust the media how are we to believe anything they tell us?
Jim Acosta in front row...
"As for those of you throwing around the 2.5 million death bullshit, that was if we did NOTHING. "
And doing NOTHING is what you propose.
That’s pretty dishonest of you Meade. Exactly nobody here has said do nothing. And you know that.
What some of have said is don’t kneecap the whole economy so people with sinecures like yours can feel safer. And that one size solutions are inappropriate for diverse areas of the country. And that epidemiologist “experts” are not the people we elected to make decisions, nor are they all without axes to grind of their own. I could go on. Suffice to say you’re not usually so intellectually dishonest.
I forgive you, since it’s clear your frightened out of all common sense.
"What some of have said is don’t kneecap the whole economy so people with sinecures like yours can feel safer."
My IRA retirement savings is a sinecure? I did not know that. What else do you think you know about me?
"I forgive you, since it’s clear your frightened out of all common sense."
And YOU are calling ME "intellectually dishonest?" I neither want nor need your pathetic insincere forgiveness.
"Exactly nobody here has said do nothing. And you know that."
You would do what then? What would you do so differently if you were in President Trump's position?
Bruce Hayden said...
Will try again.
“I went to the link and it has a chart showing the number of cases by state. Do we have any idea why New York is such an outlier in the number of cases compared to other states? New York has 3375 cases per million, CA has 177 per million and TX has 106 per million. The first cases were on the west coast in Washington state which just has 675 cases per million so I don't think that it's that they are way ahead of the curve. New York has 5 times the number of cases per million that Washington state does.”
1. NYC is the most international city in the country. It even has the UN, which guarantees that someone from almost every country in the world is there.
2. Manhattan has the highest population density, roughly 100x that of MT.
3. It depends, more than any other big city in this country on mass transit. As I noted in a previous thread, mass transit means mass infections (except maybe in germaphobic Japan).
4. The population of Manhattan swells during the day, with hundreds of thousands commuting there every day. Commuting mostly by mass transit, then walking the rest of the way, in dense crowds. (Contrast with LA, where most people still commute via automobiles, safe from contagion by strangers).
5. People have to walk a lot in NYC, esp Manhattan, because they mostly cannot drive. Walk in close proximity with strangers from around the world.
6. Incompetent governance. Giuliani and Bloomberg almost assuredly would have done a better job. De Blasio was pushing celebration of the Chinese New Year, after Trump had already imposed Chinese travel restrictions. He didn’t get around to ordering supplies, like masks, gloves, and sanitizer until this month, well after they had disappeared from stores around the country. As a result his police likely have an infection rate above 10%. Etc.
I think it's interesting that when I asked what makes New York different the people who replied all gave a list of how New York is different than the rest of the country. No one said there are no major differences.. If New York has its own unique set of issues why are we applying what New York needs to do to stop the spread of the virus to the rest of the country that does not have these characteristics. As I have said before One size fits all means that it doesn't really fit anyone." We are taking resources away from New York because parts of the country that are not a high risk have been told they need to panic and hoard everything they can just in case something happens.
Althouse - I love you BUT you read like my 90 year old Dad - It. Doesn't. Register. with you. I'M so sorry...
Meade said...
And doing NOTHING is what you propose.
I see Meade joined the Strawman Manufacturing Association.
Meade said...
And doing NOTHING is what you propose.
Nobody has fallen farther during this crisis than you have.
Let it rip, boys. Ride it out. Like a cowboy.
I am curious what information informed switching from the more regionally tailored approach to mitigation (I remember Birx discussing it) to the across the board approach. Do any models model that?
We can't trust data from China.
What about comparing the various EU vulnerabilities/strategies to the characteristics of states and metros?
Drago @ 12:04pm,
Add to that, demanding that state governments be *targeted* in their response, and no more statewide shutdown-of-everything when it's just a few dense urban areas that need the more extreme measures.
Achilles,
I share your ire. Maybe I mentioned this before here, but over in Spokane Holy Family Hospital is being financially ruined because they can't do elective things, yet they have literally zero COVID patients. And last week there was a new report that at Evergreen Hospital in Kirkland the ICU is now half empty.
"I think it is time to rethink allowing them to have this power at all."
Indeed. So much abuse of "emergency powers", and not at all restricted to this current crisis. either. Our legislature has gotten into the habit of adding emergency clauses so that the bills they pass can't be subject to a referendum.
Meade said...
"Exactly nobody here has said do nothing. And you know that."
You would do what then? What would you do so differently if you were in President Trump's position?
First watch this video.
Identify and Isolate is basically off the table for a variety of reasons. The asymptomatic rate is reportedly high for this virus. We are already at millions of infections and were before we even knew it was spreading. We are just now getting widespread testing capability and it is too late.
Social distancing requires 100% participation to be completely effective which is impossible. But there are some low impact changes you could make. Limits on the number of people in a single establishment for example.
Travel restrictions are the same. You either block all travel or you don't.
Reducing infection rates always reduced R. Better hygiene and awareness are low impact and something we could easily accomplish.
Blocking central locations or limiting the time spent in them required very drastic changes to reduce R. But when combined with reduced infection rates the outcomes were generally good.
Trump has limited powers in this situation. He is basically a cheerleader and can stop foreign travelers from entering the country.
The first thing I would do is recognize that exposure has been essentially universal especially in large population centers.
The second thing I would do is set up separate and widely distributed health centers for people to go with flu like symptoms. I would completely separate all other health concerns from flu and cold concerns. Put these centers in large buildings with a lot of space or outside if weather permits.
Hospitals have essentially been infection zones for months. They have perfectly mimic'd the central locations in the above simulations. This is just stupid
More than that we told everyone if you get flu like symptoms you have a 3% chance of dying. This is also stupid.
The third thing I would do is tell everyone exactly what we know in that this virus kills people with certain underlying health issues particularly lung damage. Apparently Cytokine Storm in young people causes a strong reaction too. The death rates in all other populations are apparently lower than the flu so if you have the flu or symptoms don't panic and rush to the hospital.
The fourth thing I would do is promote the use of face masks in general use. They don't have to be n95. They just have to block spittle and snot and keep you from touching your nose and mouth. Hand washing should be promoted. Remove all federal regulations on companies that produce hand sanitizer and watch it become ubiquitous.
The fifth thing I would do is recognize temperature and humidity on outbreak patterns. I would restrict travel to and from locations where weather was in specific ranges and predicted to be in those ranges in the near future.
That is the extent of Trump's powers in this.
It is up to the Governor's to isolate at risk populations effectively but I would ease federal regulations on nursing homes and long term care facilities to make this easier.
The last thing I would do is place a 100% excise tax on State income from all taxes of their residents if they close the school systems and force people to stay home closing all work spaces.
The local tin pot tyrants need to be punished.
I might even have the federal government rent out large hotels where elderly people and people with noted risk factors can go to ride out this epidemic.
They could achieve almost complete isolation this way pretty easily.
In fact there are a lot of cruise ships that are looking for something to do right now. I bet you could get them pretty cheap.
If, when coronavirus comes back in the fall, John Kerry can get Carly Simon to sing "It's Coming Around Again" for us, it will all be worth it.
Hopefully "JT" warbling "You've got vaccine."
walter said...
I am curious what information informed switching from the more regionally tailored approach to mitigation (I remember Birx discussing it) to the across the board approach. Do any models model that?
Um, I'm pretty sure we are, on a National level, doing a "regionally tailored", or at least tailored by State, approach.
Has President Trump ordered a nationwide lockdown that I missed?
At the State level, Governors beholden to metro area voters have tended to order that everyone in their State suffer the way the metro area people need to suffer. From what I've seen, I haven't seen GOP Governors doing the same.
Anyone seeing differently?
Meade
Serious question. You and our hostess have taken this seriously from the start and have implemented all recommended hygiene regimens and social distancing. When would you feel safe to abandon social distancing? I am guessing we will never get an official all clear so this is likely going to be a personal choice matter.
Althouse and Freeman Hunt have to be some of the most emotionally grounded people around to deal with how many people twist their words. More power to you two.
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