March 18, 2020

We took a late-day walk in the "Bio-Core"...

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In the background, you can see a bit of my favorite lake — Lake Mendota.

120 comments:

rhhardin said...

Scott Adams's evening periscope is good.

mandrewa said...

I think Roger Seheult is doing an amazing job of explaining the Coronavirus epidemic. He puts out a ten or so minute video roughly four days a week explaining what's happening. People could do way, way worse than listening to this guy.

Today's video is titled Coronavirus Pandemic Update 39: Rapid Covid-19 Spread with Mild or No Symptoms, More on Treatment and covers two subjects: (I) a new paper in Science which describes a model of the spread of the infection and suggests that this is going to be quite difficult to get rid of and may become endemic, that is it comes back year after year; and (II) more on the treatment of the disease with hydroxychloroquine.

For more on hydroxychloroquine I also suggest updates 32, 34, and 35.

Ken B said...

If facts are the seeds then Lake Mendota is where the bodies are your enemies can be weighted with concrete blocks and sunk.

I Have Misplaced My Pants said...

My county jail is releasing prisoners because they can’t maintain social distancing 🙃

Leslie Graves said...

I went grocery shopping today, in the Madison version of a popular national chain. Very few customers were in the store. Two middle-aged women were working checkout; one working the register and other doing the bagging.

When the cash register woman was finished, I said, "Thanks for being here". The woman doing the bagging turned to her and hissed, "Does she think we have a CHOICE? Does she not realize we would get FIRED? and that we HAVE to be here?" So I looked at her and tried to figure out how to apologize, and she looked at me and said, "One of us is bound to get it, you know, with all you people in and out of the store all day long."

I couldn't disagree.

RK said...

@Leslie Graves

Yes, I use the self-checkout. Who's more exposed than those people?

BTW, Madison behemoth, Woodman's, still has your favorite brand of toilet paper even though some of the other chains are totally out of TP AND paper towels. (This is not a paid commercial for Woodman's)

BTW, what are those paper towels and "flushable wipes" going to do to the sewer infrastructure? Hmmm? It's the next crisis...

Mark said...

So, how many people here would volunteer to test any promising vaccine and/or medical regimen?

Mark said...

Chloroquine plus azithromycin.

Mark said...

My county jail is releasing prisoners because they can’t maintain social distancing.

If they are in a hermetically-sealed jar, they don't need distancing. They are safe behind the walls.

Put them out in the community and they are put at risk.

donald said...

Why doesn’t she go home? What a bitch.

Mark said...

A lot of grocery stores are unionized. And the unions don't like the self-checkout.

Char Char Binks said...

Dems keep saying Covid-19 isn’t influenza, as if that justifies the grossly disproportionate overreaction to it. Who cares what the virus is called, or how it’s classified? It’s contagious in a way similar to influenza, to a similar degree, and causes cold/flulike symptoms in some who get it, none at all in others, and it kills octogenarians. It’s easy to kill octogenarians, trust me. It would probably kill even more nonagenarians, if there were more of them to kill, and maybe nonapods, too.

Mark said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Mark said...

Meanwhile, today the Maryland General Assembly passed a bill banning the use of single-use sanitary plastic grocery bags. In the middle of the epidemic, they want to force people to use disease-ridden multiple-use bags. In the name of saving the environment.

Inga said...

200 at Children's Hospital tested for coronavirus after doctor tests positive

It’s just the beginning.

Mark said...

Meanwhile, the bureaucrats are determined to kill us all --

World Health Organization officials were asked at a press briefing on Feb. 20 about chloroquine, which is closely related to hydroxychloroquine. Dr. Janet Diaz, a WHO official, responded: “For chloroquine there is no proof that that is an effective treatment at this time. We recommend that therapeutics be tested under ethically approved clinical trials to show efficacy and safety.”

Char Char Binks said...

Keep hope alive, Igna.

Bob Boyd said...

Dvořák – "Going Home”

https://twitter.com/YoYo_Ma/status/1238572657278431234

Inga said...

It’s reality Bunky. Keep sticking your head in the sand and you won’t see what’s coming. I know four of those people who were tested at Children’s hospital.

narciso said...

A month ago, what are they waiting for?

Char Char Binks said...

As soon as the University of Washington shut down, all the other Khmer-Rouge-run colleges discovered they could use Kung Flu as an excuse tank the local economy in hundreds of cities throughout the land, finally realizing the dream of Bill Maher’s Trump-toppling recession.

iowan2 said...

Yes, I use the self-checkout. Who's more exposed than those people?

A little off topic.

I was in one of the large membership clubs over the weekend. I pointed out to my better half that there were only 2 cashiers working. 10 self checkouts were all busy too.

Do the math. 12 checkers making $12 per hour, vs 2 checkers that got a big raise making $15 per hour.

Bernie, keep raising that minimum wage, you're doing yeomans work advancing automated technology, and eliminating those pesky employees, that need job trained, and diversity trained, and educated on harassment. (and collect benefits)

I Have Misplaced My Pants said...

Some people just loooooooove the drama.

I Have Misplaced My Pants said...

Any day now it’s gonna hit the fan. Any day now. They promise.

Inga said...

Pants, some people are very dramatic when they whine about how they are being inconvenienced.

I Have Misplaced My Pants said...

None of the patients considered to be at the highest risk of developing serious respiratory illness tested positive for the virus, Mike Gutzeit, the hospital's chief medical officer, said in an interview Wednesday.

I bet there’s a German word for being disappointed that the news is boringly good. You speak the Deutsch, right, Inga? Help us out?

Inga said...

“Any day now it’s gonna hit the fan. Any day now. They promise.”

And this is just ignorant, I thought you were more intelligent than this.

I Have Misplaced My Pants said...

I hate it when hardin is right. This is all about women getting all excited.

I’ll change my tune if the number of serious cases takes off — any day now!!! — but to the intense disappointment of some, this appears to be a nothingburger.

FullMoon said...

“Any day now it’s gonna hit the fan. Any day now. They promise.”


C'mom, man! Word is U.S. Navy out of toilet paper and soap. Not a joke!

narciso said...

we shoulf consider other strategies before flatlining

FullMoon said...

"200 at Children's Hospital tested for coronavirus after doctor tests positive"


Anybody dead?

exiledonmainstreet, green-eyed devil said...

Inga said...
Pants, some people are very dramatic when they whine about how they are being inconvenienced."

It isn't just being "inconvenienced." Bar and restaurant owners and other small business owners might lose their businesses. People will be laid off. Parents with children who are not in school have to scramble to find someone to watch them.

I don't consider this a "nothingburger," but I'm also able to consider what a tragedy this is for people who aren't able to work for home and aren't comfortably retired - like you are, Inga.

FullMoon said...

The doctor is quarantined at home, with mild symptoms, and is recovering, according to Brodzeller.

He didn't even know he was sick..

Inga said...

“I don't consider this a "nothingburger," but I'm also able to consider what a tragedy this is for people who aren't able to work for home and aren't comfortably retired - like you are, Inga.”

What makes you think I don’t also consider it a tragedy for people who aren’t able to work from home? You think I don’t know anyone who has to work outside the home?

FullMoon said...

How is the Navy tp and soap situation? Big panic last week..

I Have Misplaced My Pants said...

Pants, some people are very dramatic when they whine about how they are being inconvenienced.

I couldn't care less about people trying to shame me into not pursuing my own interests. Wanting to keep my money, educate my children without interruption, and live my life without interference is my right and guess just how many shits I give about whether you consider this whining about being inconvenienced.

Inga said...

Some of my friends and relatives are out there working in healthcare every day, you think I’m not worried for them? My daughter and son in law cannot work from home full time , they’re juggling schedules like crazy to make sure one of them can be with my grandsons. My military daughter in CA is awaiting orders to hear if her Marine base will be completely shut down, The biggest military base in the world may CLOSE, think about that for those of you who think this is overblown.

Mark said...

My power here in Arlington flicked off three or four times just now. A friend who lives about three miles away closer to Alexandria says that hers did too. At the same time.

Inga said...

Pants, some people are very dramatic when they whine about how they are being inconvenienced.

“I couldn't care less about people trying to shame me into not pursuing my own interests. Wanting to keep my money, educate my children without interruption, and live my life without interference is my right and guess just how many shits I give about whether you consider this whining about being inconvenienced.”

What a display of selfishness. Who do you think did this to you? Some left winger wished this upon you? It’s an act of nature. Go scream at the sky. I don’t care if you’re not ashamed, but you should be.

narciso said...

Shutting down the entire economy for months at a time, with the promise it can be testarted again, what sorcery is this?

narciso said...

The chinese government did this through negligence or malice, and mahan air spread it to iran, and their supply chain spread it to italy.

Char Char Binks said...

People in nursing homes died! Let’s shut down everything until Election Day!

I Have Misplaced My Pants said...

Go scream at the sky. I don’t care if you’re not ashamed, but you should be.

Again, I hate it when hardin is right. It's like many women would curl up and die if someone didn't invent a moral panic for them to flap their hands about. You're soooo baaaaaad. You're soooooo uncaring. You should be ashaaaaaaamed. I learned all about it on the teeeeeveeeee.

I'm just so over it.

Inga said...

Pants, you sound hysterical. I think maybe you should just clam the hell down and count your blessings.

At least 7 members of the same New Jersey family contracted COVID-19 at a family gathering. 2 of them died and 4 are in critical condition.

Your husband and children are healthy, home with you and safe.

Big Mike said...

What makes you think I don’t also consider it a tragedy for people who aren’t able to work from home? You think I don’t know anyone who has to work outside the home?

Question #2 is a non-sequitur with respect to question #1. You may know them, but do you care about them?

I believe that the answer to question #1 is negative, because you have never, to my recollection, not ever once expressed any concern for anyone who wasn't you or someone already close to you.

Inga said...

Calm, but clam up wouldn’t be a bad idea either.

I Have Misplaced My Pants said...

Someone's a clam around here, that's for sure! :D

hawkeyedjb said...

The Navy has 16 inch guns and helicopters. They should be able to acquire anything they want.

Sebastian said...

""200 at Children's Hospital tested for coronavirus after doctor tests positive"

Anybody dead?"

No: "None of the patients considered to be at the highest risk of developing serious respiratory illness tested positive for the virus"

This is encouraging, especially assuming fairly close contact between doc and at least a subset of patients.

I Have Misplaced My Pants said...

29 people die every day in this country due to drunk driving. Where's the moral panic about that?

Sebastian said...

Haven't seen this addressed yet in public statements, but health care staff need to adjust: given the clear risks to older people, younger docs and nurses need to be on the front lines.

Inga said...

“Question #2 is a non-sequitur with respect to question #1. You may know them, but do you care about them?”

Huh? WTF, are you people are looking for someone to blame for Covid? Your comment really makes no sense at all. You think I don’t care for people I know and for people I don’t know? I was a nurse for 35 years in an often thankless job. If I didn’t care for people, I wouldn’t have lasted that long in that profession, you idiot. Sorry, you cannot blame the left, they didn’t cook up Covid 19 to inconvenience selfish people or to make trouble for Trump. You folks need to get a grip.

Char Char Binks said...

That Marine base may shut down because of overblowing by people like you, Inga. Thousands die every year from the flu in CA, so why wasn’t the base shut down permanently decades ago?

Sebastian said...

Apparently, no new infections found in Wuhan today.

FullMoon said...

Not an asshole:

Target Stores’ Chrissy Teigen To First Lady Melania Trump: “F*** You”

wildswan said...

My opinion. I don't know much about economics but I know that we can't shut things down for months as some government white collar workers seem to think is possible. We simply can't. You notice China didn't keep its lockdown going. We can try to flatten the curve by a few weeks of quarantine. After that we have to resume. I'd rather die because we resumed and somebody coughed on me than participate in a social breakdown.

Inga said...

“That Marine base may shut down because of overblowing by people like you, Inga.”

What a dumb comment. You think the Marines are influenced by a bunch of left wingers who invented Covid to bring down Trump and make soccer moms cry? Why don’t you go tell them what you think big boy with a big mouth?

Mark said...

Me? I would advise prudent precautions, etc., including some spiritual purification in addition to bodily sanitation, but also simply let go of anxieties and entrust yourself to the providence of God.

Mark said...

You guys, stop. Just stop. We REALLY don't need your shit at this time.

Just let it go and walk away.

Char Char Binks said...

I doubt the Marines on base decide whether or not the base stays open.

Mark said...

You're included in that CCB.

narciso said...

they were warned

I Have Misplaced My Pants said...

We can try to flatten the curve by a few weeks of quarantine. After that we have to resume.

I agree. I am unconvinced that this thing is as dangerous as is breathlessly reported. I would change my opinion on that if the data supported it but so far the explosion of cases has not materialized. Perhaps some would say that's because the measures are working but they are so hamhanded, spotty and messy that I can't believe that's the case. That said, I'm willing to sigh heavily, disagree, and commit for a few weeks of this until we get the hysteria out of our system (or it is shown that it was necessary after all). Our school district has tentatively said we're going back to school April 13. Unless there is some surge of serious cases, in which case all calculations change, that's about the expiration date of my willingness to cooperate with this and I suspect a lot of other folks' as well.

Big Mike said...

Sorry, you cannot blame the left, they didn’t cook up Covid 19 to inconvenience selfish people or to make trouble for Trump.

Shut up and pay attention, you ignorant little twit. The left did not invent COVID-19, but you and the other insane lefties are trying to find some way you can use this crisis to score cheap political points against Donald Trump. Do you think everyone besides you is stupid? Do you think we can’t see what is going on?

I have serious doubts you really were a nurse because I have never seen one ounce of true compassion out of you for anyone who wasn’t a friend of yours or a member of your family. If you actually were a nurse, then for the reasons you yourself point out, you couldn’t have been a good one. You probably just served your time, grudgingly, until the day you could retire.

Inga said...

“Shut up and pay attention, you ignorant little twit. The left did not invent COVID-19, but you and the other insane lefties are trying to find some way you can use this crisis to score cheap political points against Donald Trump. Do you think everyone besides you is stupid? Do you think we can’t see what is going on?”

I suggest you STFU you senile old loon. You and some of your nutty cohorts are so worried this may not bode well for Trump you sound like Alex Jones devotees. Get a damn grip people.

Sebastian said...

"The average age of those who’ve died from the virus in Italy is 79.5. As of March 17, 17 people under 50 had died from the disease. All of Italy’s victims under 40 have been males with serious existing medical conditions."

So, going by these reports, even in the country most seriously afflicted the risk to healthy people under 50 is minimal.

So, what is Italy's cost in QALYs, given the age and condition of the fatalities?

What price should we be willing to pay to prevent the deaths of a proportional number of very sick Americans under 50 -- say, 100?

narciso said...

Im willing to consider negligence, but its of an extraordinary level on the part of the chinese sysgy the merger of state power and corporate atructures.

Big Mike said...

Looks like I found the gap in the armor. You really were a bad nurse who grudgingly put in her time until she could retire. Got it.

narciso said...

The wuhan institute of virology and dr. Peng zhu in particular were studying these cases, was the handling of this virus supervised or hands off.

narciso said...

Furthermore so many corporations govt are willing to carry the prcs water even 150,000 casualties later.

Mark said...

Sigh.

Inga said...

“Looks like I found the gap in the armor. You really were a bad nurse who grudgingly put in her time until she could retire. Got it.”

Looks like you’ve lost one too may brain cells, look I know you want someone to blame, but blaming strangers on the internet makes you look like a crank.

walter said...

Another figure for Italy would be # of fatalities in other diagnoses due to the system burden and resultant triage.

narciso said...

We're just trying to figure out the missing pieces, to this story.

Mark said...

Name that show -

A couple wake up in a strange house after a night of partying and discover that they have become a child's pets in a giant "playhouse" which is an entire neighborhood.

I Have Misplaced My Pants said...

Mark, it's people blowing off steam. Relax. If it bothers you so much go find a devotional to read.

mockturtle said...

A couple wake up in a strange house after a night of partying and discover that they have become a child's pets in a giant "playhouse" which is an entire neighborhood.

The Twilight Zone

Mark said...

No Pants. It's day after day. Post after post. Nonstop.

It's caustic. It's poison.

Mark said...

Point to mockturtle.

mockturtle said...

You pretentious Madison folk call it "biocore".
The rest of us call it grasslands.


And in the West we call it 'tinder'.

Mark said...

Saw a commercial for this one --

"Nip it. Nip it in the bud."

Inga said...

‘"The average age of those who’ve died from the virus in Italy is 79.5. As of March 17, 17 people under 50 had died from the disease. All of Italy’s victims under 40 have been males with serious existing medical conditions."

So, going by these reports, even in the country most seriously afflicted the risk to healthy people under 50 is minimal.”
———————————
“In general, the U.S. experience largely mimics China’s, with the risk for serious disease and death from Covid-19 rising with age. But in an important qualification, an analysis by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported on Wednesday underlines a message that infectious disease experts have been emphasizing: Millennials are not invincible. The new data show that up to one-fifth of infected people ages 20-44 have been hospitalized, including 2%-4% who required treatment in an intensive care unit.”


New analysis breaks down age-group risk for coronavirus — and shows millennials are not invincible

Ralph L said...

Lots of chicken thighs at Aldi this afternoon, a few packages of pork and beef. I got the last full gallon of milk. A sign limited purchases of TP (gone), milk and eggs.

I Have Misplaced My Pants said...

No Pants. It's day after day. Post after post. Nonstop.

It's caustic. It's poison.


I don't need your opinion on my conversations with people who aren't you. My tolerance for being lectured has been reached and breached.

Yancey Ward said...

The Coronavirus epidemic is being studied by us the way an ant would be studying the elephant whose back it was crawling across. This is what people are missing- perspective.

I made the following analogy a few days ago- we are like a homeowner who discovers a termite husk next to an outlet who then opens the wall to see the stud behind it and finds it infested with termites, but then exclaims to himself, "Thank God I caught this early enough to stop it from spreading!" He then proceeds to open up the wall on 20 more studs and finds them infested with termites, too, and exclaims, "This is spreading faster than I can find and eradicate them!"

This is what we have done with COVID-19. In every single country, the new cases have closely followed the extension of testing, but people are making the mistake of thinking this is indicative of it spreading rapidly. I suspect that the virus isn't spreading much at all any longer- people have greatly modified their behavior so much that the virus' R0 is probably well under 1 at this point. What we are finding is that the pool of infected is probably over a million right now, and has been for several weeks- probably since at least the middle of last month.

Just looking at China, South Korea, and Italy now, you can probably make a prediction about what is going to be found on testing in the US over the next 3 weeks. Cases in the US will continue to rise as testing rises, but then starts to fall in about 10-15 days. I think based on population, the US will probably reach about 15-20 thousand new cases a day by the middle of next week, and then start to decline the way it appears Italy has reach the peak (we need another two days of results from Italy to confirm this new trend there). Additionally, deaths in the US will continue to rise and will probably reach 300-400 per day around the same time we reach the peak in new cases, and then decline until there are just 10 or so per day by the end of May. The new cases will resemble what is seen in China now- they will come in dribs and drabs of 20-50 all Summer long.

In short, I predict the US, by the end of the year has 150,000 confirmed cases, and about 7500 deaths confirmed from COVID. Random screening of the population next year will show that about 10-20 million people have anti-bodies specific to the virus/es.

If my optimism is wrong, then the new cases reach 100,000 per day by the middle of April, and the deaths are 1500/day, and this goes on all Summer. The data from other countries suggests I am right- we are about 10 days from the peak of the epidemic in the US.

Yancey Ward said...

And if we look back retrospectively at all cases of death from respiratory failure before we began testing new deaths for the virus, we will probably find that we missed 25-50% of the people who actually died from it.

Mark said...

Pants -- not lecturing you.

In any event, you're better than all that.

chickelit said...

Target Stores’ Chrissy Teigen To First Lady Melania Trump: “F*** You”

I hope that reverberates against Target. Retail grocer and liquor store profits have skyrocketed; their businesses are booming as you can imagine. Target sells both food and liquor. Retail's problem will be the acceleration of online buying, unforeseen rules and regs, and staff attrition.

Mark said...

I went to a Soviet-style grocery store today (Harris Teeter). The place was practically emptied out.

If anything, this experience should remind us about how good we have it here (usually).

Guildofcannonballs said...

Any late day walks without approval shall be met with appropriate response per code.

Who do you think you are?

This is Dane County by God, you can't just walk about freely white bitch. Where the fuck is my payoff so I don't call you racist, white bitch?

Mark said...

How much of Target's clothes are made by quasi-slave labor in China?

I Have Misplaced My Pants said...

I apologize for my defensiveness.

Ken B said...

Italy had 368 deaths in one day. Then it got worse and they had 475. In American terms that is over 4200 in two days. Antietam three times a week.

Achilles?

Mark said...

Who would you rather give your spending dollars to --

Jeff Bezos or China?

Then again, a lot of Amazon products come from China.

Mark said...

You're a good woman.

Don't let the bastards drag you down.

A lesson I need to keep saying to myself.

Ken B said...

I hope you are right Yancey. Please explain the Italian deaths noted above, already in two days corresponding to 4200 American deaths, over half your predicted total in two days, with 364 left, it being a leap year.

madAsHell said...

I just bought a used guitar on-line. r e v e r b.....dot.....com. I prefer to buy equipment that I can play before I buy, but it's a Fender resonator. It's beautiful.

I feel like I'm chasing skirts again.

I'm more worried about the transaction. I'll keep you posted.

Yancey Ward said...

Ken B,

The second derivative for both new cases and deaths in Italy is close to zero- they are probably near the peak of the pool of actualy infectees. This change in trend is just recent in the last 3 days of data, and it will help if they have two more days of nearly the same or smaller numbers of both- it would confirm the reaching of the inflection point. Total cases will continue to rise for a couple more weeks, but then the numbers of recovered will start to outnumber the new cases, and total cases will decline.

Yancey Ward said...

Ken B, I have more faith in the US medical system than I do in Italy's. I think the US system is going to perform closer to South Korea's and Germany's.

Gahrie said...

Italy had 368 deaths in one day. Then it got worse and they had 475. In American terms that is over 4200 in two days. Antietam three times a week.

Approximately 7,500 people die in the US every day. Even assuming that none of the deaths would have happened anyways, that's somewhere around 30% extra deaths a day. Unpleasant, but not the Black death.

Gahrie said...

So I looked at her and tried to figure out how to apologize,

I would have told her "Well excuse me for caring, bitch." and then walked out.

Ken B said...

Yancey
I do too. But the Italian death rate has to be off by a factor of 100 for your estimate to be close

Ken B said...

Gahrie
So that's about a million deaths in America you are shrugging off, right?

BUMBLE BEE said...

Who is counting opiod deaths? Gang warfare in Chirac https://heyjackass.com/

As was said above... Perspective

Ken B said...

Yancey
Show me your math to get your second derivative.

Ken B said...

Bee
Is opioid addiction transmissible?

mandrewa said...

Yancey Ward said, "In every single country, the new cases have closely followed the extension of testing, but people are making the mistake of thinking this is indicative of it spreading rapidly."

That is exactly what I suspect is going on.

There is no exponential explosion of the Wuhan coronavirus. There is an exponential explosion of testing!

Now I said it that way to try get the essence of the idea across in two sentences. It is not literally a true statement.

Here I will say it again more accurately.

With biological organisms there is always an exponent involved. So yes, there was a definitely a period of time when the Wuhan coronavirus was exponentially expanding -- and it may still be going on -- but here's the thing: it matters a great deal what the exponent is and was. And the exponent is not nearly as large as the testing is making it appear to be.

The large exponent implied by the confirmed case count isn't real. It is an artifact of the fact that we were not testing and finding new cases as they occurred, but instead we are finding them now and assuming this reflects an expansion happening right now.

Plus we are not doing a constant number of tests but instead are rapidly expanding the number of tests, perhaps even exponentially expanding the number of tests, which will falsely make it appear that there is an exponential expansion in the spread of the virus.

Now I wonder if it is possible to extract the real exponent from our current data if we assume an exponential explosion occurred in the recent past and we use our knowledge of when the tests were done and then deduce what the actual exponent is and was.

That should be possible. But to do it one has to guess at least one thing. One has to guess when the virus was introduced in a population. So this method would generate different exponents depending on our assumption about when the virus was introduced.

The further back in time the virus was introduced to a population the smaller the actual exponent is, and correspondingly the less dangerous the virus is now.

The Vault Dweller said...

I have a friend who works overnight at a grocery store stocking shelves and he has told me that over the last 5 nights he has consistently gotten huge orders with each night's truck. Like 3-4 times normal. So if anyone was worried about supply lines, I think that fear is unfounded. Now if people would just stop buying ridiculous amounts.

rehajm said...

Like SARS from civets and and MERS from camels result of zoonotic transfer and not a lab based synthetic

BUMBLE BEE said...

Henny Penny was right, and she did it longhand!

Rusty said...

IHMMP.
No need to apologize. Some days you just run out of patience with vigorously stupid.
Also. When the usual suspects are wrong, as they often are, there has to pushback or they will spread thier nonsense everywhere.

grackle said...

It’s easy to kill octogenarians, trust me.

So … just let the virus have its way and kill them off? Cold.

I’ll change my tune if the number of serious cases takes off — any day now!!! — but to the intense disappointment of some, this appears to be a nothingburger.

Italy is on lockdown. I don’t remember any past “flu” season ever causing THAT type of response. Recently the Italians recorded 500 Wuhan virus-related deaths in one day. That adds up to 180,000 per year – perhaps an acceptable figure to those who don’t give a shit about human lives – or who are simply willfully ignorant. Meanwhile the scientists say the Italy peak infection rate is somewhere in the future so look for that 500 figure to rise drastically – 1,000 or to maybe 2,000 per day. What a “nothingburger!”

29 people die every day in this country due to drunk driving. Where's the moral panic about that?

Moral panic is not my forte – but I must point out that drunk driving has severe penalties – especially if the driver kills someone in the process. Is that moral panic? Your pants are fine. It’s your brain that’s misplaced.

Total cases will continue to rise for a couple more weeks, but then the numbers of recovered will start to outnumber the new cases, and total cases will decline.

Yes, cases will inevitably decline – until the next wave, each wave with another peak. These virus outbreaks occur in waves, folks – as many as 3 or 4 waves per virus. Just when you think it’s over it comes back – sometimes stronger than before. The expert I pay heed to(Dr. Paul Cottrell) says it is likely 18 to 20 months before we are clear of it entirely.

Browndog said...

The expert I pay heed to(Dr. Paul Cottrell) says it is likely 18 to 20 months before we are clear of it entirely.

Yes, indeed.

One expert says 18-24 months to go. This is amplified by the "news" media. Mayors, governors, and select members of Congress repeat it.

Suddenly, it's a scientific fact, beyond questioning.

Next thing you know your favorite blog will not tolerate dissent.

It's happening!

grackle said...

BTW, I believe all things considered the Trump team seems to be doing a good job on this battle against the Wuhan virus.

Prediction: Eventually the virus will be found to be from the Wuhan biochemical lab. Laboratory containment protocols were probably inadvertently compromised through ignorance, carelessness or even some sort of Black Swan event that distracted the researchers at some crucial point in their procedures. If you fuck around with nature too much nature has an ugly tendency to fuck you back.

grackle said...

Yes, indeed. One expert says 18-24 months to go. This is amplified by the "news" media. Mayors, governors, and select members of Congress repeat it. Suddenly, it's a scientific fact, beyond questioning. Next thing you know your favorite blog will not tolerate dissent.

I sincerely hope the comment is correct, although I’m puzzled by the intolerant “dissent” part. I haven’t lurked here for months - is Althouse banning dissent these days?

Fernandistein said...

"If viruses are the seeds that later produce disease and death, then the cells of the body are the fertile soil in which the seeds must grow."

And in the West we call it 'tinder'.

I looked it up - in Wisconsin, "Bio-core" means biology core curriculum.

It’s easy to kill octogenarians, trust me.

That's be, like, parasitic quadruplets or Spider-Man?

I Have Misplaced My Pants said...

So, grackle, what’s your point, regarding waves and 24 month timelines? We just gonna hide under our beds until then?

Lewis said...

At least Lewis hasn't posted his awful Vogel poetry! Here's more:

VII

Every hotel from which I was expunged
(But, of course, I did not stay)
Every face that glances backwards
Some kind of lie, all those that lie ,
Into their (or others) pants,
The slight, coarse affair of me even looking,
(Oh, I assure you, a random glance)
Begins and ends with what is least important:
I said (louder still) begins and ends
With what is least important: a dead parrot
Which still will continue to say
The words “I love. ..” or, thus, “I love God.”


VIII

And think (think again!) it was beyond us,
It was always (why? you should ask) from this-afar.
We began with those hopes (they last to long),
Taking what were mere words
As just God could have said them:
If we were older we would have said:
“These are lies!” but they weren’t.
An attempt to bring us forward that failed.

And then, you said, “I am that I am.”
Blasphemy that must almost be true:
I thought I’d found some word, some devil
Saying, quietly, “Here is a man: Bring him close, bring him home,
Make him speak the word this God demands."
God demands nothing and nor do you.


Ralph L said...

Retail's problem will be the acceleration of online buying, unforeseen rules and regs, and staff attrition.

And the big drop-off when panic buying ends and the hoards are used.

grackle said...

So, grackle, what’s your point, regarding waves and 24 month timelines? We just gonna hide under our beds until then?

I’m not under my bed but I’m sure as hell hiding. I’ll try to outlive it and hope the scientist come up with a cure that’ll stop it in its tracks. I’ve always been pretty good at spotting patterns and the pattern with even the early reports were ominous. I went out very early as soon as I realized what might occur and got enough food and water to last me 3 months and put it away. I wish I had bought more. When that runs out I’ll depend on my own kids to get me some more, IF there’s any in the stores. We’ve already worked out a method how they can do that without me getting infected.

I live on a top floor apartment in the downtown of a large city. I have to go down to get my mail and I have to get rid of my trash. I’ve worked out a system using rubber gloves, soap and disinfectant wipes to do that in the safest way possible.

One thing that gives me hope. Every top bio-scientist in the world is working on it. That has never happened before in human history.