March 27, 2020

"There’s a theory of risk stratification... Isolate people but really isolate the vulnerable people. Don’t isolate everyone because some people, most people, are not vulnerable to it."

"And if you isolate all people, you may be actually exposing the more vulnerable people by bringing in a person who is healthier and stronger and who may have been exposed to the virus, right.... Younger people can go back to work. People who have resolved can go back to work... People who — once we get this antibody test — show that they had the virus and they resolved can go back to work. That’s how I think you do it. … It’s not [that] we’re going to either do public health or we’re going to do economic development and restarting. We have to do both."

Said Governor Cuomo yesterday (quoted at the New York Post).
"We closed everything down. That was our public health strategy... If you re-thought that or had time to analyze that public health strategy, I don’t know that you would say ‘Quarantine everyone.'... I don’t even know that that was the best public health policy. Young people then quarantined with older people, [it] was probably not the best public health strategy...."
Cuomo, like Trump, seems to be spending a lot of time on camera and thinking aloud. The 2 men are saying a lot of the same things, struggling with incomplete and conflicting ideas. Naturally, Trump gets more criticism, as there are those in the press who look for the worst sentence in his hours of talking and make a headline out of it. But to my ear, the 2 men are far more alike than different.

ADDED: Old men going on camera and rambling. There's a sort of Theater of Transparency. I get that, but I'm thinking it's overdone, and something shorter and stronger would be more helpful. At some point, I really empathize with these old guys showing us their struggle with an unmanageable force of nature. But then I begin to think it's crazy, their lingering before the camera, going on and on as if to make the argument, I am trying hard but it's so hellishly difficult, and I think, no, it's not your personal struggle. It's not about our feeling for you as you're stuck doing something that can't be done right. Give a clear, factual report, combine realism and optimism in the way that will be most helpful to those of us who are trying to do our part and keep going, and then get off the stage.

130 comments:

Howard said...

Coumo is a steady Eddie. Trump is a cowboy. I like the fact that they seem to be at least marching in the same or similar directions

Dave Begley said...

Andrew sounds very smart and presidential. Unlike Biden.

And Andrew. Please tell us if you are behind the hit piece of Biden sexually harassing a woman years ago. Do we believe all women? Or are some of these charges just politically motivated?

Unknown said...

Yup.

Bill Owens said...

Unfortunately, aside from the NYPost & Fox, these musings by Cuomo are unreported so the statements don't exist and he never said them. We'll see if that changes. Trump may highlight them in his daily brief.

MikeR said...

Cuomo is not spending much time criticizing Trump. I think that means that if he ran against him Cuomo would have a really good chance of winning. We don't need more criticism of the president, we've heard it already. The ones looking for something to criticize sound ridiculous right now.
In related news, RCP polls have Trump up to -2.0%, which hasn't happened since the Feb 2017.

Bob Smith said...

They are both trying to find a crowd to get in front of.

narciso said...

he issued the lockdown, now with mayor bane, down stream we're talking about an impossible problem.

Browndog said...

I saw an interview with a doctor treating hundreds of corona patience in NYC.

His primary concern at the most is his staff. He made the point De Blasio shut down a number of subways, causing the ones still running to be more crowded than needed.

This lead to his larger point. He doesn't want his very large staff commuting at all.

They are working very long hours and says there are plenty of empty bed (hotels, dorms) walking distance from the hospital and wouldn't need to risk exposure and wasted time commuting to and from work after their shift.

Trump would make that happen in a heart beat, but DeBlio is in charge.

tim maguire said...

Smart move. The only purpose this self-quarantining ever served was to give us a 2-week break from new infections in order to help us separate the sick from the healthy. Only a fool would think this was an end in itself and only a person as dumb as Daniel Drezner or an organization as disreputable as the Washington Post would pretend otherwise or get upset that Trump is talking about lifting it.

Inga said...

The antibody test may be the more important test to be done. There is an easy finger prick test that is coming. The UK ordered several million of these tests. Hopefully the US won’t be behind the curve again. If the majority of the population has positive test for Covid antibodies, then I’d say it was time to go back to life as usual for most people. Test older folks too of course and if they have positive antibody tests in larger numbers too, then we can go back to being almost fully open again, while still isolating the very susceptible. I think we aren’t going to see mostly positive antibody tests results yet though. Of course I’m only guessing, just like most of us are. We can only look at countries’ who are ahead of us on the timeline and have stats that are trustworthy

mockturtle said...

I'm not sure old people are more vulnerable to catching the virus but do have higher mortality rates. There are plenty of younger people in ICU facilities with this disease, they just have a better survival rate. And 'flattening the curve' is all about resource management, not deaths.

Lucid-Ideas said...

Interesting news out of USS Roosevelt:

Currently on the way to Guam as approx. 25+ sailors have tested positive but - if you've never been on a Naval vessel - it's likely everyone has it. What's interesting is the CO said that despite the diversion, he's told the Pentagon/JCS that the ship remains at "100% military efficiency" and that it could perform its job if necessary.

Translated: We are taking precautions for the ship and crew but what we have seen is mild thus far and manageable. Because they're young and have far fewer pre-existing conditions (screened at indoc), this is likely supportive of the case for isolating the more vulnerable.

Unknown said...

Maybe the 3 million who lost their jobs last week won his attention.

hombre said...

Sorta reminiscent of Biden’s ChiCom virus proposal plagiarizing Trump’s. Not that Trump is omniscient, just that he is obviously advocating a sound approach to dealing with the virus and saving the country. The mediaswine aren’t pointing out the similarities between Trump and Cuomo. They are unused to Democrats behaving like grownups.

Spiros said...

Don't forget about immune imprinting, or the "lifelong bias in immune memory of, and protection against, [viral] strains encountered in childhood." Certain birth cohorts are going to be spared. It's happened with every modern influenza pandemic. So which one will it be? It might be kids or teens or millennials or Generation X or Baby Boomers or whoever. We won't know. Don't get your hopes up that it'll be the super old.

Susan said...

The Princess Cruise ship should have drifted into port with a few living stragglers barely able to dock the ship if the worst case scenario of transmission and death rates were true. Especially considering that their passengers were skewed to the elderly side. Since even the passengers didn't drop like flies then, perhaps, not all the elderly are at huge risk. The elderly who still travel may be healthy enough, overall, to do well.

Achilles said...

The numbers were just never matching the situation the media presented.

This was widespread in January and February.

Now we have a bunch of panicky people who think if they have flu like symptoms they are going to die.

People are going to the hospital now when they wouldn't have before. It is a pretty easy to guess that health workers and first responders have a much higher likelihood of exposure.

The secondary wave is going to be caused by the panic.

ColoComment said...

I don't know if anyone else might have seen it, but there was a video clip yesterday on Fox News from a Gov. Cuomo press conference wherein he complained that the federal rescue plan(s) didn't do "enough" to replace revenues lost to his state due to the COVID-19 epidemic.
I thought it was quite curious that he was openly suggesting state bailouts (for New York, anyway, and does he think that would end there?)
...while at the same time other Dems are loudly criticizing those plan(s) for providing federal loans or loan guarantees to business, both large and small.
I can't figure out how to link it, but if anyone would like to see/hear it, it's available on the Fox news video page under the title:
"Governor Cuomo slams 'reckless' COVID-19 bill: 'It does nothing in terms of lost revenue'
Mar. 26, 2020 - 2:28 - Governor Andrew Cuomo says the stimulus bill helped small businesses but 'simply failed to address the governmental need'

Michael K said...

I'm not sure old people are more vulnerable to catching the virus but do have higher mortality rates.

The cruise ship data confirm that impression. Even the mortality was not higher, suggesting that older people with good health are at average risk.

Bob Boyd said...

"Isolate people, but really isolate the vulnerable people, like Joe Biden. Don’t isolate everyone because younger, more vital people like me, are not vulnerable to it."

Bay Area Guy said...

"There’s a theory of risk stratification... Isolate people but really isolate the vulnerable people. Don’t isolate everyone because some people, most people, are not vulnerable to it."

Way to go Cuomo! The rare politician who punctures the fog of fear-mongering, and addresses the issue squarely.

Ken B said...

Inga
One thing we need the antibody test for is blood donations. You can’t really run a large blood clinic very wellunless you can screen and not have the clinic itself turn into a transmission hub. And we will need blood.

Ken B said...

“ Now we have a bunch of panicky people who think if they have flu like symptoms they are going to die. ”

This is a legitimate concern. There was a comment on an earlier post about an AI screening tool. That sort of thing can help screening.

hombre said...

Interesting how commenters here are willing to give Cuomo, who has pretty much been the usual jerk DemPol, credit for behaving reasonably.

When can we expect DemSecProgs to show Trump the same courtesy? LOL!.

Inga said...

Ken, if the person has antibodies for Covid19, the person’s blood should not infect anyone. People who have positive antibody titers for measles, mumps, chicken pox, etc. won’t transmit those diseases via blood donation.

Blood titers

Sebastian said...

"We have to do both"

You mean, like, ruin and devastation are actually not rational?

You mean, like, we have to weigh costs and benefits?

You mean, like, the pro-sanity faction was right all along?

Thanks, Andrew!

Achilles said...

Susan said...
The Princess Cruise ship should have drifted into port with a few living stragglers barely able to dock the ship if the worst case scenario of transmission and death rates were true. Especially considering that their passengers were skewed to the elderly side. Since even the passengers didn't drop like flies then, perhaps, not all the elderly are at huge risk. The elderly who still travel may be healthy enough, overall, to do well.


Exactly.

I posted a longer similar analysis weeks ago.

The numbers were just never there. We are just backlogging now.

Deaths will probably peek 14-20 days after the first media reports and the start of the shutdown when everyone with the flu like symptoms rushed the hospitals.

If Obama were president instead of Trump this would probably just be a particularly bad flu season.

It is possible COVID-19 would not even be named by now.

Inga said...

Don’t get an antigen test confused with an antibody test.

roesch/voltaire said...

Old people, and I am one of them, seem more vulnerable if they have underling causes and ignore good advice for instance: "One of the first deaths in Virginia from coronavirus was a 66-year-old Christian “musical evangelist” who fell ill while on a trip to New Orleans with his wife. As the Friendly Atheist’s Hemant Mehta points out, Landon Spradlin had previously shared opinions that the pandemic was the result of “mass hysteria” from the media.
I am willing to keep the isolation a few weeks longer if necessary.

BarrySanders20 said...

It's almost like executives who are responsible for more than one thing cant be one-trick ponies and have to weigh the costs of different courses of action. That a balance and being neither a pants-shitter nor a denialist is required.

OMG! Why dont we have 1 million ventilators right now! Because if we bought them 10 years ago they would have cost a lot and we wanted to spend that money on something else, they would have sat unused and unmaintained this whole time, awaiting that possible day that we might need more than any one health system already has. And you need to train people to use them properly. Will there be shortages in some areas? Yes. And that sucks.

It's like the beginning of WW2- OMG! Why dont we have 1 million tanks and 1 million fighter planes right now? Because same reasons. Give us some time and we'll get there, and we will get them to where they are needed most.

Birkel said...

So we're still pretty sure that between 20,000 and 11,000,000 will die, right?

Fernandinande said...

“People who — once we get this antibody test — show that they had the virus and they resolved can go back to work.

So New York doesn't have a real SARS-2 test.

Then how do they define "tested positive"?

In S. Colo/New Mexico the "test" is a flu test; if you feel sick and DON'T have the flu, you are "presumed positive" for the cooties.

Then later, as per MSM standards, the word "presumed" is dropped.

Bay Area Guy said...

Gentle reminder -- NYC has 5.4 MIllion subway riders each day. Strangers. Strangers who cough. Strangers who may or may not get vaccines. Strangers who almost certainly aren't getting tested for disease. In close quarters. Real close quarters.

And this is 5.4 Million New Yorkers. Every day. For what? Nearly 50-100 years?

Looking back from today's perspective, Kinda gross & disgusting, no?

And, yet, up until Feb 2020, that's how the world operated -- WITHOUT ANY MAJOR VIRAL OUTBREAKS SINCE THE SPANISH FLU OF 1918. (Which was during WWI, I may add).

Put 2 + 2 together folks. One highly esteemed commentator here said it was "pure luck". There's a better answer.

Drago said...

Achilles: "If Obama were president instead of Trump this would probably just be a particularly bad flu season."

That is exactly what happened in 2009 with H1N1. Hundreds of thousands hospitalized, thousands dead, national emergency declared......and it was no big deal.

Videos of Fauci from that time are fascinating as he couldnt have been more nonchalant about it.

But what did happen was the obiden-bama crew took that opportunity to centralize the entire pandemic response strategy and convert it into a high risk 1-shot-only-to-get-it-right operation.

Its now changed back of course (private enterprises and distributed strategy) so in that sense thank God Trump was savvy enough to move quickly enough to do just that after the 1-shot strategy failed at FDA/CDC.

wendybar said...

Pro life people aren't welcome in New York according to Cuomo. There is no way he would win over us.

Yancey Ward said...

The two men are realists in a world that is overrun with fantasists.

Ken B said...

Inga
I was not thinking of the blood. I was thinking of the clinics as spaces. Lots of people in a confined space. I won’t go to a blood clinic I don’t think until I know that everyone in the room is screened.

Drago said...

wendybar: "Pro life people aren't welcome in New York according to Cuomo. There is no way he would win over us."

Cuomo is on video declaring about half the nation Deplorables with unAmerican values who aren't welcome in NY.

Sounds like a real Man Of The People.

Would play "very well" in the Midwest...(wink wink)

Inga said...

“It seems very easy to be able to say yes or no, somebody was infected or wasn’t infected,” said Florian Krammer, a virologist at the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai.

Earlier this month, Krammer and colleagues posted on a preprint server a paper describing the serological assays they had developed to detect previous exposure to SARS-CoV-2, the name of the coronavirus. (Preprints are scientific papers that have not been through the peer-review process yet.) They’ve also started a website where labs can order the ingredients they need to get tests up and running themselves.

And this week, Mount Sinai announced that antibodies detected in blood from recovered patients would be used to treat current patients. It’s hoped that injecting patients with these antibodies — a type of therapy sometimes called convalescent plasma — might provide an initial layer of protection as their own immune system kicks into gear.

Companies and academic researchers are also trying to develop plasma therapies and are scrambling to obtain blood from survivors. Serological tests could help expand the supply.”

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/27/serological-tests-reveal-immune-coronavirus/

rhhardin said...

Protecting old people would be best done by separating old people, and let everybody else get sick but not die, and become immune. Then the disease dies out. Then let the old people out.

Protecting everybody would work as today, reduce the socializing population below 1.0 person infected by each infected person. Then the disease dies out for everybody.

In the former case, young people wind up immune; in the latter nobody (practically) is immune.

Inga said...

“Inga
I was not thinking of the blood. I was thinking of the clinics as spaces. Lots of people in a confined space. I won’t go to a blood clinic I don’t think until I know that everyone in the room is screened.”

I read that the tests would be sent to the home of the person testing, no need for clinics. Just do the finger prick and send off your sample to be tested.

Wince said...

Cuomo would be crazy to get in the 2020 presidential race rather than 2024, even if by popular Democrat demand.

It would invite greater scrutiny of his actual job than a generalized good feeling about it looking back four years from now.

He'd put himself in the position of standing-up or capitulating to the left, when they might self-destruct in a second Trump term.

Always better to leave them wanting more.

He's young: Cuomo would best service his in self-interest running in 2024.

Amexpat said...

Give a clear, factual report, combine realism and optimism in the way that will be most helpful to those of us who are trying to do our part and keep going, and then get off the stage.

Agree! Pence actually does a very good job in the new conferences. Trump has the ability to do what's needed, but he can't stop going off on self indulgent tangents and using the forum to try to make political points when he would be better served politically to not do so.

Biden doesn't have the ability to give a clear factual report. He doesn't even have the wisdom to hire competent staff to help him out. Hate to admit it, but I probably would vote for Trump over Biden if the election were held today.

Drago said...

Inga: "I read that the tests would be sent to the home of the person testing, no need for clinics. Just do the finger prick and send off your sample to be tested."

Fauci has been talking about the finger prick test and blood serum therapies for weeks now.

Inga said...

“Inga: "I read that the tests would be sent to the home of the person testing, no need for clinics. Just do the finger prick and send off your sample to be tested."

“Fauci has been talking about the finger prick test and blood serum therapies for weeks now.”

Indeed he has.

Ken B said...

Inga
This is amusing. You and I agree but we are misreading each other. Let me try again
We need blood donors. People will not go to blood clinics unless they think the clinic is a safe place to go. They won’t think that until we have effective testing. So the blood supply will be in trouble unless we get tests.

Drago said...

What many of us have been predicting for some weeks has now officially begun: the dems/media/LLR's have accelerated their blame-shifting for the origin of the virus from their ChiCom allies to Trump and his supporters.

In a NY Times Op-Ed today:

“The Road to Coronavirus Hell Was Paved by Evangelicals

Donald Trump rose to power with the determined assistance of a movement that denies science, bashes government and prioritized loyalty over professional expertise. In the current crisis, we are all reaping what that movement has sown."

We are probably just months away from the media siding with the ChiCom propaganda lie that the virus was engineered by the US military at Trumps direction.

Sebastian said...

rhhardin: "Protecting old people would be best done by separating old people, and let everybody else get sick but not die, and become immune. Then the disease dies out. Then let the old people out.

Protecting everybody would work as today, reduce the socializing population below 1.0 person infected by each infected person. Then the disease dies out for everybody.

In the former case, young people wind up immune; in the latter nobody (practically) is immune"

Of course, of course. Glad you're in the pro-sanity faction.

But that's way too rational. And not fair to seniors. So we get general shutdowns.

Whereas targeted, but rigorously enforced, quarantines, would be better public health strategy at much lower economic cost.

purplepenquin said...

This was widespread in January and February.

You sure about that? 'cause we were told back in January by the President that it was "totally under control"

Mariposa said...

So much verbiage, even also from Pence and Fauci. What a relief when Dr. Birx takes the mike.

Temujin said...

Yes- less is more during this time. Trump and Cuomo both are using this to get too much camera time. Trump should show up every couple of days, say just a couple of things, then turn it over to Pence (who is doing the job well as leader of the Task Force) and then the medical/science officials (who are great) and government department officials.

Cuomo should do the same. Say a few words, then let your team- your experts- do the talking. You are the leader. But you are not the expert (neither of them are, nor are the journalists who continue to attack and preen).

There is way too much opinion on what's going on, coupled with a mass production of misinformation and half-information. It's gotten so muddled. Its necessary to cut through the muck and bullshit now. We're tired of the preening and wordless words.

Inga said...

“Inga
This is amusing. You and I agree but we are misreading each other. Let me try again
We need blood donors. People will not go to blood clinics unless they think the clinic is a safe place to go. They won’t think that until we have effective testing. So the blood supply will be in trouble unless we get tests.”

Yes I agree and I see your point. Once people have done the home antibody tests and have their documentation that they have antibodies, it would be safe to go to clinics to donate blood.

Drago said...

Sebastian: "Whereas targeted, but rigorously enforced, quarantines, would be better public health strategy at much lower economic cost."

And thats just it, isnt it? We could achieve better public health outcomes at lower economic cost one way....but all the usual suspects are arguing for policies diametrically opposed to those policies....

JohnAnnArbor said...

It's not an easy problem. Both are honestly trying to deal with it, and to illustrate for the public the nature of the dilemma.

mockturtle said...

Trump should show up every couple of days, say just a couple of things, then turn it over to Pence (who is doing the job well as leader of the Task Force) and then the medical/science officials (who are great) and government department officials.

Totally agree, Temujin! I emailed Trump with that suggestion the other day, even using the term 'bloviating' after assuring him that I was his biggest fan. He's not listening, though.

Dust Bunny Queen said...

Posted this in another thread, but it seems more appropriate here.

Trump Administration to Issue Guidelines for Classifying U.S. Counties by Coronavirus Risk: Criteria designed to help local officials decide whether to increase or relax social-distancing rules.


About effing time! WSJ article...I can't read because I'm too cheap to subscribe.

Not everyplace is the same. Small towns, sparsely populated and less populated areas don't need to be in "total lockdown".

Mary Beth said...

Young people then quarantined with older people

If they are quarantining with them, they probably live together. That creates a problem with isolating the older people while the younger people still go out to work.

Michael K said...

But what did happen was the obiden-bama crew took that opportunity to centralize the entire pandemic response strategy and convert it into a high risk 1-shot-only-to-get-it-right operation.

This is standard Obama and why he really was a Socialist inside those creased pants. They did the same thing with student loans, which is one reason the thing got out of hand.

Yancey Ward said...

"About effing time! WSJ article...I can't read because I'm too cheap to subscribe."

The WSJ should take their cues from Pornhub and make the service free to all for the duration.

Michael K said...

If they are quarantining with them, they probably live together. That creates a problem with isolating the older people while the younger people still go out to work.

America has a much smaller multigenerational family population than Italy, which is one reason Italy is in such trouble. Aside from their alliance with China, of course.

It is easy for older people like us to self isolate. We are all retired. Some still work but can probably survive without the part time job for a while.

Michael The Magnificent said...

Well, it's obvious.

By making such Trump-like statements, Governor Cuomo has self-identified as an agent of Putin.

Dave Begley said...

Note well. Andrew has to be on TV before Trump and on a daily basis.

His campaign has begun.

Biden names him VP. After the convention, Biden withdraws based on doctors' orders. Cuomo is the nominee. The Bidens get paid off. That's how it will go down.

Michael K said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Nonapod said...

As of 4pm yesterday in the state of New York,

122,104 were tested
37,258 were positive
84,846 were negative
385 had died

If we assume these numbers are correct (which, obviously they're not because of selection bias due to the universe of people tested mostly consisting of people with symptoms) under the assumption that if the disease were left completely unchecked:

(385/122,104) * 100 = 0.31%

330,500,000 people in the US
330500000 * .0031 = 1,024,550

If this disease ultimately costs us 6 trillion in lost GDP due to the lockdown and rescue packages

6,000,000,000,000/1,000,000 = $6,000,000 per saved person.

Francisco D said...

If the majority of the population has positive test for Covid antibodies, then I’d say it was time to go back to life as usual for most people.

Yes. I agree.

I suspect (from anecdotal sources) that more Americans were exposed to the coronavirus in January that was previously thought. The "survivors" will be interesting subjects for research.

We will learn a lot from this pandemic, but I do not trust the media to report it accurately - partly because they do not understand and partly because they have preferred narratives.

Ken B said...

More Coolidge, less Carter.

Thistlerose said...

Said Governor Cuomo yesterday (quoted at the New York Post).

"We closed everything down. That was our public health strategy.


This is not true, we only closed down non-essential workers.

I live in Dallas and only some retail, schools and office workers are closed down. I live in a large apartment complex that is adding 5 new buildings to be completed this year. The construction workers are on the job, the grounds keepers are still working, Tuesday, the first day of our lockdown there was a crew fixing a sidewalk. I went grocery shopping this morning and went past two mini malls. The small nick nak stores and clothing stores are closed but anyone that serves food is open. The company I work for is hiring and adding people as fast as they can.

If you're not working it's because your job really isn't that important. One thing I find very interesting is that teachers are in the not very important group. Day care centers are open but school teachers all are getting a 2 month paid vacation.

MayBee said...

I have actually enjoyed Cuomo's rambling pressers. He sounds so human! He's thinking through all the things I want to know someone is thinking about.
I like that so much more than, say, my governor who is about statements about keeping yourself isolated and use hand santizer and if you don't know if it's ok for you to work, that's life. They'll start checking for papers on April 1.

Mike (MJB Wolf) said...

You’re thinking it’s overdone. We’re thinking it’s overdone. Time for these news conference leaders to learn the wise old adage, Brevity is the soul of wit.

BarrySanders20 said...

Just signed up to donate blood. Good news is that there were no slots open on Monday. Bad news is that there were tons of open slots the rest of the week. I am set for Wednesday and am the only one so far that day at this location.

I have not had any antibody test, but am not afraid of getting COVID while donating blood. No, I have not shit my pants. Ken B and Inga have inspired me! Meade too! (#MeadeToo)

Stay inside and cower if you must and if you think that is all that is required of you. Others, if you feel well and actually want to help, seek out a blood donation center. Around here, it is Versiti. It could not be easier to find a day and time. Might even try to spend some money on the way back.

Let's do an Althouse challenge and see how many pints we can get to. I challenge one more person to sign up and donate. Let's do our own R factor for blood donation.

Ken B said...

Nonapod
My watch says 11:59. If I leave it to run unchecked, will it say 11:59 in a few hours?

I cannot seriously believe you think that the virus has reached its maximum spread in New York State, or that the dying has stopped. But that is what your math assumes.

Ken B said...

BarrySanders20
Good on you, as the Brits say.

Bruce Hayden said...

“People who — once we get this antibody test — show that they had the virus and they resolved can go back to work.

So New York doesn't have a real SARS-2 test.

Then how do they define "tested positive"?


Two different tests. The first, is testing for the virus in the blood. It tests for whether or not you currently have COVID-19. The second is the antibody test. That tells whether you had COVID-19 in the past, because you now have SARS-2 antibodies lying in reserve, as a result of having fought the virus previously. Or been immunized against it (very rare here, since there is not yet a proven vaccine). The antibody test is probably the important one, for making these types of decisions, because it can detect how much of the population probably won’t be infected. And with that, herd immunity can protect the more vulnerable. But we don’t have that test in volume yet. We can guess at the number of people immune, based on where and how fast the virus spreading. But that is just guessing.

So New York doesn't have a real SARS-2 test.

They have a real VIRUS test, that detects how many people currently have the virus, but not a real ANTIBODY test to determine how many people had the virus in the past, and are presumably immune now.

AllenS said...

For those who are complaining that there is too much Trump camera time, just how panicky would you be if he didn't show up for a week or two?

Inga said...

“They have a real VIRUS test, that detects how many people currently have the virus...”

Called the “antigen” test.

Nonapod said...

The denominator (total tested) will grow withe numerator (deaths)

Sebastian said...

"Give a clear, factual report, combine realism and optimism in the way that will be most helpful to those of us who are trying to do our part and keep going, and then get off the stage."

But would "clear and factual" still be perceived as "helping," by people who care about such impressions?

Anyway, insofar as I have seen the WH briefings, they have been pretty clear and factual, as political theater ("Message: We Care") goes.

Kevin said...

Give a clear, factual report, combine realism and optimism in the way that will be most helpful to those of us who are trying to do our part and keep going, and then get off the stage.

Trump is on the stage with a bunch of people, Mnuchin, Fauchi, Pence, Adams, et al.

He talks, then they talk. Sometimes he stays around while they talk, sometimes not. They take the deep questions, he deals with the larger policy issues.

He also takes the opportunity every day to point out their hard work and celebrate their efforts.

I've seen Cuomo talking by himself. The conferences I've watched had powerpoint slides beside his videos so he was talking from a prepared script, with some Trump-like digressions along the way.

Yes there are similarities in what they're saying, but from what I've seen there are stark differences in how they're trying to communicate it.

And I'm not sure the Dems can take Cuomo down while Trump is still up there talking.

MayBee said...

BarrySanders20- I went to donate blood, but got turned away from the screening. But overall, it is a great idea.

exhelodrvr1 said...

"Let's do an Althouse challenge and see how many pints we can get to. I challenge one more person to sign up and donate. Let's do our own R factor for blood donation."

I donated platelets 11 days ago, and am doing so again on Monday, but that's something I do normally, so it's not "additional due to the virus"

MayBee said...

The school comments interest me, because that was my first response. College kids and school children weren't getting sick- it made a lot more sense to keep them In one place rather than spread them out.

Inga said...
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Sebastian said...

"If this disease ultimately costs us 6 trillion in lost GDP due to the lockdown and rescue packages

6,000,000,000,000/1,000,000 = $6,000,000 per saved person."

So, even in the worst-case scenario, leaving Althouse's original 11M out of it, and assuming an average of 10 QALYs saved per saved person, we would be committing about 4 to 12 times ordinary medical expenditures, providing the equivalent of uncommonly heroic care on an unprecedented scale, with unknown downstream consequences. Of course, if the doom scenarios are as exaggerated as they appear to be and we go with Meade's 200K saved, the cost per life or QALY saved goes up to at least an order of magnitude. If QALYs of 10 per fatality turn out to too generous, considering that many would have died anyway and sick people with multiple conditions are overrepresented, that further increases the average cost to levels we would not otherwise contemplate. And of course, the actual cost would still be underestimated, considering the long-term economic and health consequences for younger people.

Inga said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Sebastian said...

MayBee: "The school comments interest me, because that was my first response. College kids and school children weren't getting sick- it made a lot more sense to keep them In one place rather than spread them out."

Especially considering that we don't close schools for flu, which actually does kill kids.

wendybar said...

Michael The Magnificent said...
Well, it's obvious.

By making such Trump-like statements, Governor Cuomo has self-identified as an agent of Putin.

3/27/20, 10:51 AM

Thanks for the laugh!! That's a good one!!

Bay Area Guy said...

@Nonopod,

As of 4pm yesterday in the state of New York,

122,104 were tested
37,258 were positive
84,846 were negative
385 had died


This is almost perfect, but you also gotta start with the New York population: 19 Million People

So, 385 deaths in New York means: 385/19 Million x 1 Million = 20 deaths/million.

So, 20 deaths/Million is still tiny, much, much less than Italy (136 deaths/million), but much greater than the current US average: 4 deaths/million.

So, NY has an uptick. and folks there should take extra precaution.

PB said...

Who are you calling old? Andrew and I were born on the same month and year.

JPS said...

Drago, 10:37:

"The Road to Coronavirus Hell Was Paved by Evangelicals"

"Donald Trump rose to power with the determined assistance of a movement that denies science, bashes government and prioritized loyalty over professional expertise. In the current crisis, we are all reaping what that movement has sown."

I try not to hate people over political differences, but this stuff is really starting to piss me off.

So the NYT op-ed writer has taken a dispassionate look at the situation and decided it's all the fault of people he hates anyway. He and his allies have done everything right, and there'd be no problem if we'd all just listen to them.

Amexpat said...

Let's do an Althouse challenge and see how many pints we can get to. I challenge one more person to sign up and donate. Let's do our own R factor for blood donation.

Tried to give blood here in Norway a few weeks ago. They turned me down because I was over 60. If the US has the same age limit for giving blood, then a good chunk of Althouse's readership will be ineligible.

Inga said...

“I cannot seriously believe you think that the virus has reached its maximum spread in New York State, or that the dying has stopped. But that is what your math assumes.”

Yes, it’s still spreading but at a slower rate. Isn’t that what the isolation accomplished and is still accomplishing? While hospitals in more affected areas are still overwhelmed, it could’ve been so much worse.

Inga said...

“Let's do an Althouse challenge and see how many pints we can get to. I challenge one more person to sign up and donate. Let's do our own R factor for blood donation.”

“Tried to give blood here in Norway a few weeks ago. They turned me down because I was over 60. If the US has the same age limit for giving blood, then a good chunk of Althouse's readership will be ineligible.”

I think that unless the donor has a positive Covid antibody test, they shouldn’t be donating.

Inga said...

Newest prediction/ forecast, up to 80,000 “could” die from Covid by July.

“If gaps in health care resources aren’t filled, more than 80,000 Americans will die over the next four months due to the coronavirus pandemic, epidemiologists at the University of Washington predict.

The grim forecast — based on an analysis of statistics from the World Health Organization, as well as from national and local governments and hospitals — is laid out today in a research paper that’s being submitted to the MedRxiv preprint server but hasn’t yet been peer-reviewed.

Researchers at the UW’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation say their forecast takes current policies on social distancing into account. The problem is that shortages of hospital beds and medical supplies are projected to boost the death toll nevertheless.

Peak excess demand is projected to occur in the second week of April, when the researchers predict a shortage of 64,000 beds and more than 19,000 ventilators. “The date of peak excess demand by state varies from the second week of April through May,” the researchers say.”

https://www.geekwire.com/2020/univ-washington-epidemiologists-predict-80000-covid-19-deaths-u-s-july/

narciso said...

oh

Skeptical Voter said...

Amexpat says he hates to admit it, but he would probably vote for Trump over Biden (presumably based on recent relative performance of the two).

The old adage that you can't beat something with nothing comes to mind.

The reality is that as Biden passes on into senescence, a Biden presidency (and yes he could win) would really be a committee effort. The committee would prop up the old geezer (maybe even in the final stages use a cardboard figure of Biden) tell him what to say, and generally make decisions for him. With the right mix of people on the committee, that might actually work. However the voters don't know who the members of the committee might be, and in that sense, they would be buying a bunch of progressive pigs in a poke.

If Biden were to die in office, then his Vice President would step in. In that case the voters would at least have had a preview of what that man or woman might do.

narciso said...
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narciso said...
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Ken B said...

Inga
They don’t care about “could”. It is remarkable but it’s true. They want an actual number. No talk about uncertainty, no maybes, no range of possibilities. They don’t think “could happen” matters.

narciso said...

never mind

bagoh20 said...

This is, of course, the only possible way to get past this epidemic. Otherwise, there could be no end to the isolation, becuase nobody would be ever be immune, and as soon as you left your sanctuary you would get infected and start the whole thing all over again. I can't believe this is just now being discussed. Must have been only "experts" working on this up until now.

narciso said...

why do they make things up then

Bill, Republic of Texas said...

Wow R/V is a real piece of shit.

Nichevo said...

AOC ought to make her Angry Bird speeches in a string bikini. The way she jumps up and down, they would be worth watching, with the sound off.

Nichevo said...

I think that unless the donor has a positive Covid antibody test, they shouldn’t be donating.

Inga, really? NYBC was eager for me to come in as soon as they could free a slot.

Birkel said...

The quote Inga offers says "will" to which any thinking person should object.

Inga herself objects and softens it to "could" as is appropriate.

The objection is about trade-offs as always.

n.n said...

I'm not sure old people are more vulnerable to catching the virus but do have higher mortality rates.

Infection largely follows circumstance and behavior. Disease and mortality largely follow vulnerability and risk factors.

Leland said...

It is sad that after centuries of quarantine as a concept, our elected class is just now trying to understand how it works. Here's the thing, the point of quarantine is so you don't shutdown everything. You quarantine the sick (negative airflow in modern hospitals to keep the infection contained). You quarantine the vulnerable (positive airflow in modern hospitals to keep the infection out). This allows everyone else to continue operating, so you don't destroy your economy. And the economy is more than a stock market. It is all the goods and services that is traded inside your borders and with your partners outside your borders.

I give this nonsense another 2 weeks, and the smart women of the world will demand access to their hair dressers based on the common sense that it promotes good hygiene.

Bay Area Guy said...

@Leland,

It is sad that after centuries of quarantine as a concept, our elected class is just now trying to understand how it works. Here's the thing, the point of quarantine is so you don't shutdown everything. You quarantine the sick (negative airflow in modern hospitals to keep the infection contained). You quarantine the vulnerable (positive airflow in modern hospitals to keep the infection out). This allows everyone else to continue operating, so you don't destroy your economy.

Outstanding, and even tempered. Let the wisdom flow!

Inga said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Inga said...

“You quarantine the vulnerable (positive airflow in modern hospitals to keep the infection out).”

The vulnerable people are living at home now. Should we put them all in special facilities with positive airflow capeability?

Bay Area Guy said...

"Newest prediction/ forecast, up to 80,000 “could” die from Covid by July."

Are we ignoring the older prediction of 2.2 Million deaths and 81% infected in the US?

But, from 2.2 Million to 80,000, heck, I will take it.

My prediction: It will be substantially less than the 34,000 Americans who died from the flu last year.

JAORE said...

"Late to the game - our state motto) Governor Kay Ivey announces the shutdown starts tomorrow.

NorthOfTheOneOhOne said...

Dust Bunny Queen said...

Not everyplace is the same. Small towns, sparsely populated and less populated areas don't need to be in "total lockdown".

I wonder how long it will be before the DemocRATS start muttering about "infection inequality"?

narciso said...

so july that's four months from now, the so called stimulus, won't last till then, lets keep flatlining,

Michael said...

Its rather moving the faith people have in models. Touching that once a data point enters an excel spreadsheet cell it gains authority. Inarguable in a way because there it is. A number. And another number in another cell can make the first number grow or shrink, fast or slow. Magic.

robother said...

Trump needs to be thinking about how to overcome the MSM/Dem freakout over ending the lockdowns (which is guaranteed at whatever point in the next 3 months he does it.) I'm thinking a Rosie the Riveter-type campaign, featuring mostly blue collar men and women, and a slogan: "Let Democrats cower in basements, WE'VE got work to do!"

Inga said...

“But, from 2.2 Million to 80,000, heck, I will take it.”

That 80,000 isn’t the totality of the deaths. If this follows the way the 1918 Flu spread, it died down in the warmer months and came back with a vengeance in fall into winter. Hopefully there will be a vaccine sooner rather than later, medications that are effective, and more people who have immunity, plus the isolation that is taking place now buys time to not overburden the healthcare system and gives them time to get the ventilators and PPE that may be needed.

jaydub said...

"The vulnerable people are living at home now. Should we put them all in special facilities with positive airflow capeability?"

Maybe we should just burn the house down to be sure. Or hose down the inside with HCL. Or zip grandma in a plastic bag filled with alcohol.

Or...or...or why not just keep people away from grandma? Isolate her in one room and don't let anyone go in who hasn't been sanitized? This is not rocket science and people deal with these types of hazards in the home all the time without losing their effing minds.

Browndog said...

New: Members of the Rhode Island Natl Guard will be stationed at train and bus stations to gather the contact info of anyone coming in from NY

In addition, RI State Police will station troopers at the border to flag vehicles with NY license plates


Patch.com

Ken B said...

Inga
Farmer is right. They are walking examples of Dunning Kruger Effect.

Birkel said...

The 88 year old woman (not a relative) with whom I sometimes break bread would rather take her chances than die of loneliness.

Anybody know if there is a study outlining how loneliness in elderly populations affects mortality?
/rhetorical

Birkel said...

And other people are typing examples of Gell-Mann

JaimeRoberto said...

In times of peace prepare for war. In times of war prepare for peace.

Birkel said...

Ace of Spades notes that there are riots in China.
And they are shutting down theaters again.

So let's trust the Chinese numbers that informed Professor Ferguson's GIGO.

mockturtle said...

In times of peace prepare for war. In times of war prepare for peace.

I like it, Jaime. Goes well with one of my favorite: Pray for peace but prepare for war.

mockturtle said...

If the US has the same age limit for giving blood, then a good chunk of Althouse's readership will be ineligible.

AFAIK, there is no age limit.

Kai Akker said...

an average of 10 QALYs saved per saved person, we would be committing about 4 to 12 times ordinary medical expenditures, providing the equivalent of uncommonly heroic care on an unprecedented scale, with unknown downstream consequences. Of course, if the doom scenarios are as exaggerated as they appear to be..., the cost per life or QALY saved goes up to at least an order of magnitude. If QALYs of 10 per fatality turn out to too generous, considering that many would have died anyway and sick people with multiple conditions are overrepresented,

I'm getting lost on how many QALYs you are willing to pay for, Sebastian. How old are you? And, sorry to be blunt, but is that anywhere near your dividing line for who you think deserves consideration in this situation?

Michael K said...

"The vulnerable people are living at home now. Should we put them all in special facilities with positive airflow capeability?"

They would have to have more firepower than my AR 15 and 30 round magazine.

Drago said...

JPS: "I try not to hate people over political differences, but this stuff is really starting to piss me off.

So the NYT op-ed writer has taken a dispassionate look at the situation and decided it's all the fault of people he hates anyway. He and his allies have done everything right, and there'd be no problem if we'd all just listen to them."

What this NYT writer did is no different than what Inga does whenever the islamic supremacists commit terrorist acts. She always immediately brings up Trump voters and Christians and evangelicals in the US.

Without fail.

Fernandinande said...

They have a real VIRUS test, that detects how many people currently have the virus, but not a real ANTIBODY test to determine how many people had the virus in the past, and are presumably immune now.

Thanks. Our local news has been misleading about that, and we don't have such such a thing out here in the boonies.

After poking around I found more info:

"FAQs on Diagnostic Testing for SARS-CoV-2"

"Policy for Diagnostic Tests for Coronavirus Disease-2019 during the Public Health Emergency"