Althouse: "The coronavirus pandemic could kill more than 81,000 people in the United States in the next four months and may not subside until June..."

March 27, 2020

"The coronavirus pandemic could kill more than 81,000 people in the United States in the next four months and may not subside until June..."

"... according to a data analysis done by University of Washington School of Medicine. The number of hospitalized patients is expected to peak nationally by the second week of April, though the peak may come later in some states. Some people could continue to die of the virus as late as July, although deaths should be below epidemic levels of 10 per day by June at the latest, according to the analysis. The analysis, using data from governments, hospitals and other sources, predicts that the number of U.S. deaths could vary widely, ranging from as low as around 38,000 to as high as around 162,000."

Reuters reports.

This is reassuring.

434 comments:

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bagoh20 said...: Haven't the un-skeptical here argued similarly for each of the former higher estimates with the same geometry arguments? It's the skeptics who are holding their position as the alarmists keep moving the goal post toward them. The primary argument that was being used till now was just wait till later when the numbers take off, but everyday the estimate of deaths drops significantly, and the same arguments are trotted out each time. That's gonna be hard to pull off when they start dropping, but the switcheroo will be yea, because we blew trillions of dollars, and that fixed it, and there was no other option.; 3/27/20, 4:45 PM
Christy said...: In further news of unintended consequences, Knox County has had 8 suicides in 48 hours. This is 10% of the expected yearly suicides. Normally we'd see 0.5 suicides in 48 hours, so we've seen more than 7 excess deaths just now during this period of social distancing. Knox County has seen 0 deaths to date from Covid 19. Tennessee has had 3, the nearest being 90 minutes down the interstate.

Not enough data points for any real conclusions, but I am interested now in the excess suicides across the country.

I confess, I'd discounted the effect of all this on people's psyche. I was wrong.; 3/27/20, 4:50 PM
Rick said...: Ken B said...
Worldometers has good graphs. They show very clear exponential growth. Some of the graphs can be displayed with a logarithmic y axis. They show a straight line.

Worldwide numbers do not show a straight line. They show increases with new outbreaks followed quickly by leveling off. Ken's engaging in a time-honored propaganda technique of extrapolating only on initial and incomplete data while ignoring the longer trends. Reasonable people (Bjorn Lomborg, Julian Simon) have been winning bets against hysterics for generations by catching them misrepresenting reality this way.; 3/27/20, 4:54 PM
Ken B said...: Rick said ...

Forget what Rick said. Forget what I said. Look for yourself. US deaths, logarithmic scale for example. Worldometers.com; 3/27/20, 4:58 PM
eric said...: It won't be as high as the high estimate.

However, the #4 killer in the USA is respiratory diseases, like emphysema, asthma and bronchitis.

That's about 130,000 a year.

I'm going to bet than in 2020, there won't be more than 150,000 deaths from respiratory diseases and coronavirus combined.; 3/27/20, 5:05 PM
bagoh20 said...: We have 2 hours to go (GMT) before today's tally is done, but right now it looks like the fourth day in a row with slow growth in new deaths. That very important number seems to be flattening out.

Starting Tuesday: 225, 247, 268, 251 (so far) That is not much growth. Let's hope it means something.; 3/27/20, 5:07 PM
Drago said...: Ken B: "Forget what Rick said. Forget what I said. Look for yourself. US deaths, logarithmic scale for example. Worldometers.com"

No. I think I'll remember what Rick said...because he is absolutely correct about what is being seen AND what has happened in the past using the same tactics.

So, in real time, I'll stick with the guy who gets it right AND accurately describes what has happened in the past and why.

That's usually a good rule of thumb.; 3/27/20, 5:07 PM
Tomcc said...: BTW, I live in a suburb of Portland. In Oregon there are 414 cases of Covid-19 with 11 deaths. I suspect that people are thinking "if it's happening in NY, it can happen here". I truly hope that we have enough data in the next week or two to identify the areas that can unclench.; 3/27/20, 5:08 PM
BUMBLE BEE said...: Ken B if you're so disgusted why do you hang around? Hate yerself bitch!; 3/27/20, 5:08 PM
Sebastian said...: bagoh20: "the switcheroo will be yea, because we blew trillions of dollars, and that fixed it, and there was no other option"

Yes, already on the Official List of Backtracking Discourse Tropes: "What if we hadn't."

#2, actually, after "We had real calculations."; 3/27/20, 5:09 PM
Calypso Facto said...: eric said: "I'm going to bet than in 2020, there won't be more than 150,000 deaths from respiratory diseases and coronavirus combined."

I think that sounds right. Commenter Sebastion has been making a point of talking about the EXCESS deaths for the year, and I think we're going to find out that a spike in deaths classified as COVID-19-related will mean a drop in deaths due to other reported causes (except economic/stress-related suicide).; 3/27/20, 5:12 PM
Achilles said...: BUMBLE BEE said...
Ken B if you're so disgusted why do you hang around? Hate yerself bitch!

It is important to remember that there are always people who do not think for themselves.

Republicans voted for how many globalist shills between 1988 and 2016?

We need to pivot this quickly onto the actual bad actors. We can't hang around saying "I told you so" with the people we will need to defeat the globalist scum.; 3/27/20, 5:15 PM
Rick said...: Ken B said...
Forget what Rick said. Forget what I said. Look for yourself. US deaths, logarithmic scale for example. Worldometers.com

Note he's still trying to push the US where the outbreak is more recent, Dan Huff would be disappointed. Use the world data instead.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/How_to_Lie_with_Statistics; 3/27/20, 5:15 PM
Etienne said...: My wife has expressed satisfaction that my machining in the garage is completed!

I bought a blank AR-15 lower and machined it for a trigger, thus creating my very first home-made rifle. Reading the ATF booklet it says I should put some identifying marks on it in case some scoundrel steals it. I think I'll stamp in my selective service number from 1972...

Turns out those aluminum chips make quite a mess, and she says there will be no dessert until i clean up the "f'n" garage!

She doesn't want to die choking on aluminum dust!; 3/27/20, 5:16 PM
Calypso Facto said...: "Mr. Pants just had to furlough 1500 people and tell managers and executives that they can expect a 50% salary cut effective May 1."

Truly sorry to hear that, Pants. Lots of economic calamity in my near circle too. Hope we can all get back to work soon.; 3/27/20, 5:16 PM
whitney said...: 3 million people die every year. Those numbers are peanuts; 3/27/20, 5:26 PM
Sebastian said...: "Commenter Sebastion has been making a point of talking about the EXCESS deaths for the year, and I think we're going to find out that a spike in deaths classified as COVID-19-related will mean a drop in deaths due to other reported causes (except economic/stress-related suicide)."

Right. And as far as I can tell we have not even an attempt at an estimate by any "expert," or by any observer on the ground at major hospitals. It's as if people like a little panic.

Once the public figures it out, they will again find it "reassuring" that the Wuhan impact will again be less than "predicted." Then trope # 3 will be added to the Official List of Backtracking Discourse Tropes: "Oh, yeah, we hadn't thought about that. Sorry."

But this is an empirical matter: if all Wuhan deaths are true excess deaths, so be it. But I don't think so, as the Italian data already suggest, and let's see what happens here.; 3/27/20, 5:28 PM
Mark said...: Again, during that four-month period, over 900,000 people WILL die in this country. Nearly a million people DEAD.

Dead of other causes.

We have an epidemic of death every day. About 7,800 each and every day.

80,000 is reassuring.; 3/27/20, 5:32 PM
RMc said...: This is reassuring.

Not if you're one of the 81,000 (or 162,000), it ain't.; 3/27/20, 5:35 PM
walter said...: Christy,
FWIW: https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/03/24/metro/amid-coronavirus-surge-calls-massachusetts-suicide-prevention-hotline/

“The majority of people [calling lately] are mentioning or talking about fear of contracting the virus, economic impact, increasing loneliness, or isolation,” said Kathleen Marchi, executive director of Samaritans, which runs a statewide 24-seven crisis hotline.

“We are anticipating there will be an increased need for services like ours for a time to come," she added.

And even when the state’s stay-at-home order ends, Marchi said, it will take time for people to resume routines, get back to their previously available resources, and settle down.

For people with underlying mental health conditions or other challenges, the outbreak can exacerbate their situation.

Ron White, chief program officer at Samaritans, said the organization usually fields between 250 and 275 calls a day. Last week, that jumped to about 350 calls a day. Meanwhile, text message conversations are on pace to top 1,000 this month, which would be a record high.

Anyone in need can call or text their hotline at 877-870-4673, the organization said.

White said the surge in volume is consistent with what the organization has seen following other stressful public events, including the Boston Marathon bombings. But usually such spikes last only for a couple of days. This time, the volume has remained elevated for a significantly longer stretch.; 3/27/20, 5:36 PM
Mark said...: The alarmists at WP are screaming at the top of their lungs that trillions of people will die in the U.S. because of Trump's malfeasance. His intentional mishandling of not locking every person into their homes and insisting that people be forcibly packed into convinced spaces to be coughed and hacked on.

At the same time . . .

The alarmists at WP are screaming at the top of their lungs that trillions of people will die in the U.S. because of Trump's malfeasance in not stopping the imminent collapse of the economy because everything is closed up.; 3/27/20, 5:37 PM
Howard said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; 3/27/20, 5:37 PM
Howard said...: Ken B and Inga touches most of you here quite deeply. The reactions to them are prima facie evidence that you lack confidence of your convictions. Another example is you're so outraged that the Dems and the chai comes did this to cripple the US economy and crippled Trump once the situation becomes a nothingburger in a couple weeks like you people predict then Trump will ride on a white horse to his second term, will dictate terms to the chi coms and the Dems would likely lose the house and the Senate. Ipso therefore facto, you people should be doing a happy dance right now. But you're not cuz you really don't believe all that b******* you're spouting you just spouting it because you're afraid.; 3/27/20, 5:38 PM
Drago said...: Howard: "Ken B and Inga touches most of you here quite deeply. The reactions to them are prima facie evidence that you lack confidence of your convictions."

Often, when someone tells me 2+2=7, I often have a strong reaction to that answer, which, according to Howard, is prima facie evidence that I lack confidence in my belief that 2+2=4.; 3/27/20, 5:41 PM
n.n said...: The Road to Coronavirus Hell Was Paved by Evangelicals

When the models do not conform, Nature must be in denial.

Extraordinary bigotry. NYT is spreading a social contagion that threatens a population greater that the virus. [catastrophic] [anthropogenic] climate cooling... warming.. change. Restriction of reproductive rites, the fifth choice, Pro-Choice, the wicked solution. The social contain is progressive condition that has been spread through indulgence of liberal license; 3/27/20, 5:42 PM
Robert Cook said...: "This panic was a fraud engineered by the Chinese Communist Party, the Democratic Party and the Democratic media."

Said the man in the tinfoil hat!; 3/27/20, 5:43 PM
Drago said...: n.n.: "Extraordinary bigotry. NYT is spreading a social contagion that threatens a population greater that the virus."

Now now now.

According to Howard, your reaction to that article is prima facie evidence that you lack confidence in your belief that Christian evangelicals in the US are NOT responsible for the Chinese Bat Soup virus.; 3/27/20, 5:43 PM
n.n said...: worldometers.info

For the COVID-19 data, we collect data from official reports, directly from Government's communication channels or indirectly, through local media sources when deemed reliable.
...
For the live counters on the home page, we elaborate instead a real-time estimate through our proprietary algorithm which processes the latest data and projections provided by the most reputable organizations and statistical offices in the world.

The "big bang" theory injected with brown matter to conform with... force reality.; 3/27/20, 5:46 PM
Drago said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; 3/27/20, 5:46 PM
Drago said...: Robert Cook: "Said the man in the tinfoil hat!"

Yes, the fact that the talking points and narratives pushed by each of those 3 entities, the democrat media, the democrats and ChiCom government, are in absolute pitch perfect alignment is purely coincidental and in no way represents any sort of shared beliefs, objectives or desires.; 3/27/20, 5:46 PM
Howard said...: Drago, I thought the narrative that you've been given by your betters in Trump tower that this is all a hoax it'll be over in a couple weeks it'll be a huge nothingburger no worse than the flu. If all that is really true then Trump will win re-election and Nancy Pelosi will lose her job as speaker of the House and you guys will be able to nominate every wack job toothless judge to the federal bench.

Good times; 3/27/20, 5:49 PM
n.n said...: that you lack confidence in your belief that Christian evangelicals in the US are NOT responsible for the Chinese Bat Soup virus.

Individually, there may spreaders of the virus... and social contagion. However, as a rule, I don't indulge diversitist philosophy, thought, and practice. That said, prudence and boldness, facts speak to truth, models are hypotheses... and, of course, #HateLovesAbortion; 3/27/20, 5:50 PM
Howard said...: Buckminster Fuller proved that one plus one equals four.; 3/27/20, 5:50 PM
Ken B said...: Howard
I was thinking the same thing. I said to look at a graph and it set off a firestorm.
As Freeman observed, they don’t actually read the articles discussed. They latch onto a number or a phrase, and claim it means what it patently does not.
They cannot even keep straight whether Fauci is the great guru because Trump listens to him so far or the great Satan because they might disagree in the future.
And you are right about the politics too. If this dissipates in a few weeks, and if chloroquine is a miracle drug, Trump will be the new FDR.; 3/27/20, 5:50 PM
Drago said...: Howard: "Drago, I thought the narrative that you've been given by your betters in Trump tower that this is all a hoax it'll be over in a couple weeks it'll be a huge nothingburger no worse than the flu."

Wow Howard.

I never expected you to attempt to dredge that massively debunked lie again. Inga maybe, since she did it within the last several weeks.

But really, its sad and pathetic that you pulled that out simply because you don't know what else to say.; 3/27/20, 5:52 PM
Mark said...: Knox County has had 8 suicides in 48 hours.

Possibly due to the cluster effect of suicide.

Suicide is contagious. One leads to another.

And in today's culture, where we have over 40,000 people killing themselves each year, suicide has lost the stigma it once had. And there are plenty of people out there pushing this quality of life argument of "better dead than X."

Add in the alarmism we've experienced, and some people are going to panic and panic to the extent of taking their lives.; 3/27/20, 5:52 PM
Drago said...: Ken B: "Howard
I was thinking the same thing. I said to look at a graph and it set off a firestorm."

No.

Rick said look at this way and you immediately reverted to "don't believe either of us!" mode.

Sorry. Rick is correct in his assessment of those graphs. You are not.

And now you're mad.

You'll just have to get over that.; 3/27/20, 5:53 PM
Howard said...: Don't get me wrong Ken B, I hope these lunatics are right. I don't care if Trump gets re-elected because he guessed right on the pandemic.; 3/27/20, 5:54 PM
Robert Cook said...: "The Chinese are retaliating for Trump's trade war and his attempts to repatriate manufacturing to the U.S."

The only thing stopping manufacturing from repatriating to the U.S. is for the companies who sent their jobs to China to bring their jobs back and recognize they must pay good wages(relative to U.S. costs of living) to U.S. workers.

In other words...it won't happen.; 3/27/20, 5:55 PM
walter said...: I'm calling out Howard for dental shaming.; 3/27/20, 5:55 PM
Howard said...: A wink is as good as a nod Drago you people are essentially saying this is one giant hoax perpetrated on Trump and the deplorables by the nasty communist Chinese people's Republic of infectious disease the Democrat Party and the democrat-controlled MSM.

Actions speak louder than parsing of Donald Trump's words; 3/27/20, 5:55 PM
Jeff said...: Actually, on this corona virus topic, Inga has been refreshingly reasonable. Nothing at all like the TDS she exhibits on more political matters.

I had to run some errands today in Northern Virginia and noticed that, in both the pizza place where I got takeout, and my local BJ's (a warehouse store like Costco) that traffic was up a lot compared to earlier this week. Using my ocular econometric skills, I estimate that, among those retail establishments that are allowed to be open, business was down to only about 30 percent of normal on Monday and Tuesday, but has risen to 60 percent of normal today.

My prediction is that this lockdown nonsense is going to collapse within two weeks. There is no way to enforce it once the majority of people get fed up with it, and we'll be there pretty soon.; 3/27/20, 5:56 PM
Drago said...: walter: "I'm calling out Howard for dental shaming."

Howard desperately wants to help out his pal Ken B, but he doesn't really know how, so he simply cycles back to the old lies.

I fully expect Howard to start complaining about how Trump feeds goldfish in Japan again.; 3/27/20, 5:56 PM
narciso said...: so they present the conclusions of a paper, without the data that they used to arrive at the conclusion, the way Michael mann does things, considering the gravity of the stakes involved, it would be more helpful to have additional info,; 3/27/20, 5:57 PM
Drago said...: Howard: "A wink is as good as a nod Drago you people are essentially saying this is one giant hoax....."

Ah yes.

As with Inga, here comes the inevitable walkback after the pathetic lies are called out.

Next Howard will be telling us he "intimated" what was really meant.

Sorry Howard. Your make-believe rationales for being called out on your use of debunked lies is not really a good look.

On the other hand, what have you got to lose at this point?; 3/27/20, 5:59 PM
Mark said...: That Pence -- he loves his visual aids.; 3/27/20, 5:59 PM
Ken B said...: Howard
It never crossed my mind that wished to be right. Nor do I. But grown ups deal with facts. I'd even be thrilled to see the Democrats destroyed for a generation. But it’s not a conspiracy to get Trump, and it’s not milder than the flu, and it’s not just an artifact of new tests.; 3/27/20, 5:59 PM
Inga said...: “I never expected you to attempt to dredge that massively debunked lie again. Inga maybe, since she did it within the last several weeks.”

Another lie. Drago you’re so obsessed with politics. Everyone else seems to be able to discuss the pandemic and pandemic associated things, when they are the subject matter of the blogpost. You always circle back to your partisan politics. B.O.R.I.N.G; 3/27/20, 6:00 PM
Mark said...: That Martha -- she's a visual aid all in herself.; 3/27/20, 6:00 PM
Howard said...: So I trolled the word hoax knowing Drago with jump all over it. Then I prove how his protests were in vain so he then changes the subject. A successful troll requires an accurate prediction of a the marks modus operandi.; 3/27/20, 6:00 PM
Drago said...: Howard, why don't you just go with the "Trump is using coded language!!" excuses like the college kids and the Woke Patrol?

It's easier which has to be appealing to you.; 3/27/20, 6:00 PM
Drago said...: Howard: "So I trolled the word hoax knowing Drago with jump all over it."

Ah yes.

The inevitable "I meant that"!

Sure you did Howard. Sure you did.; 3/27/20, 6:01 PM
hstad said...: The media are deliberately fomenting panic. They do this partly because that's the nature of the MSM ("if it bleeds, it leads") and partly because most members of America's media are Trump-haters.

Even Dr. Fauci has now come out and backtracked on his numbers from last week [ Those numbers were largely driven by that idiot academic at the Imperial College - who also backtracked.

Dr. Fauci this week (3.27.20) stated: “…This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS…”; 3/27/20, 6:03 PM
Tomcc said...: Bagoh20: The data point that I found a bit encouraging is number of new deaths in NY today is 53 vs 100 yesterday. (A data point is not a trend); 3/27/20, 6:03 PM
Howard said...: KenB. The problem with this situation is we don't have any real facts and we won't probably for another few weeks or month. Everybody is working off of anecdotes and model predictions. That's why I say embrace the suck of isolation until we have a accurate understanding of what is really going on with this disease. I'm pretty sure the number of theories on the way the disease is behaving exceeds the total number of deaths so far; 3/27/20, 6:03 PM
Inga said...: “As with Inga, here comes the inevitable walkback after the pathetic lies are called out.”

And your obsession with me should be making you embarrassed. You cannot discuss anything without mentioning politics or myself or whatever person you are obsessed with that particular day. So odd.; 3/27/20, 6:04 PM
Mark said...: I had hoped in these last two weeks spending all my time at home to get some reading done -- I cracked The Plague months ago before this corona stuff happened, but didn't get past the first few pages -- and some much-needed housecleaning.

But I've been too busy doing work. Work work. Not work for me, but work for my employer.

That ain't right.

And a lot of that work has been tracking news of the crisis and the restrictions, etc. Reading that 883-page bill that was passed today was a real treat.; 3/27/20, 6:05 PM
Drago said...: Inga: "And your obsession with me should be making you embarrassed."

Shorter Inga: I hate it when people point out the things I've said.; 3/27/20, 6:05 PM
Howard said...: I love the stiff-upper-lip Drago but no one believes you and when I say no one I mean no one with half a brain so probably about 90% of the people who post here do believe you but they're nobodies so technically I'm being accurate; 3/27/20, 6:06 PM
Mark said...: Some people just REFUSE to hope.; 3/27/20, 6:06 PM
Drago said...: Inga: " You cannot discuss anything without mentioning politics or myself or whatever person you are obsessed with that particular day. So odd."

Inga very upset that she is reminded she vomited up the Trump Called The Virus A Hoax-Hoax recently.....after lecturing others not to "politicize" the virus.

Which is par for the course for Inga.; 3/27/20, 6:07 PM
Howard said...: Well Mark I hope you detect my jovial good humor it might not be hopeful but it works for me; 3/27/20, 6:08 PM
Drago said...: Howard: "I love the stiff-upper-lip Drago but no one believes you and when I say no one I mean no one with half a brain so probably about 90% of the people who post here do believe you but they're nobodies so technically I'm being accurate"

It's encouraging that you recognize that no one is buying your "I meant that" schtick.; 3/27/20, 6:08 PM
Inga said...: Ah, Drago is SUPER HARD trying to derail the thread again.; 3/27/20, 6:09 PM
Drago said...: Inga: "Ah, Drago is SUPER HARD trying to derail the thread again."

Inga is very upset that Howard got called out for pushing the same hoax Inga was pushing recently.

Unexpectedly.; 3/27/20, 6:10 PM
Mark said...: Fox ladies have been going with the glossy lipstick. Noticed Laura Ingraham's shiny lips the other night and now Martha.

The harsh Fox lighting doesn't help.; 3/27/20, 6:10 PM
Howard said...: See how Drago cannot let go of the hoax hoax hoax. It's the talisman that he needs to rub all day long to keep believing trumpology. Way to stay on message you are a real team player gold star from Jared no doubt.; 3/27/20, 6:11 PM
Inga said...: I think Drago is bored by this pandemic stuff, he doesn’t feel alive unless it involves a partisan politics fight. He lives for it.; 3/27/20, 6:11 PM
Drago said...: Howard: "See how Drago cannot let go of the hoax hoax hoax."

Yes, I can see how pretending what you and Inga and the dems/media did with that lie is simply better forgotten.

Good luck with that.; 3/27/20, 6:12 PM
Inga said...: “See how Drago cannot let go of the hoax hoax hoax. It's the talisman that he needs to rub all day long to keep believing trumpology.”

Yeah, I can just see him frantically rubbing it.; 3/27/20, 6:14 PM
Mark said...: Sorry Howard, but I have scrolled right past this back-and-forth go-around involving you and the usual suspects.

So, no, it wasn't you I was referring to -- unless you are one that is OCD on seeing only gloom and doom on this. I don't know if you are or not.

I hope you're not. Too many people are. And it doesn't help anyone.; 3/27/20, 6:14 PM
FullMoon said...: Careful, Howard. We see Inga has her sights on you. She is a vamp and has a history here of breaking hearts.

S.T. and Ritmo have wooed and suffered.; 3/27/20, 6:14 PM
Howard said...: Okay Drago maybe I'm wrong. It seems like you people are pushing that the coronavirus pandemic is a hoax perpetrated by the people's Republic of wet markets and the Democrat Masters of the universe. so then you're saying that it is not a hoax and that the isolation and caution being taken by our public officials so far is the right course of action; 3/27/20, 6:15 PM
Rick said...: Ken B said...
I said to look at a graph and it set off a firestorm.

Yep that was it, it wasn't likening people to holocaust deniers. Do assholes really believe their shtick? Or do they just go with the best they have even though it's obvious bullshit?; 3/27/20, 6:17 PM
Mark said...: And Martha MacCallum ought to give us all hope that it is possible to look really good when you are 56 years old.; 3/27/20, 6:17 PM
Drago said...: Howard: "It seems like you people are pushing that the coronavirus pandemic is a hoax perpetrated by the people's Republic of wet markets and the Democrat Masters of the universe."

"it seems"

"essentially"

"intimated"

If you and Inga used any more weasel words to try and cover for your pushing debunked lies, you'd be getting chased by monkey's around the cobbler's bench.; 3/27/20, 6:17 PM
Howard said...: You're too late full moon. I am Alley Oop and Inga is Ooola.; 3/27/20, 6:17 PM
Howard said...: Drago changes the subject when confronted with facts that contradict his talking points; 3/27/20, 6:19 PM
FullMoon said...: Howard said...

Well Mark I hope you detect my jovial good humor it might not be hopeful but it works for me

Oh, sure. Easy to be jovial when born with silver spoon in mouth and toilet paper on the shelf..; 3/27/20, 6:19 PM
Etienne said...: The funny thing, is that writing a $2 Trillion IOU is dependent on the Chicom's investing in that debt.

Undertaker, please
drive slow...

Cause that crowned lady
you are hauling
Oh Lord I hate
to see her debts go

Oh, will that circle
be unbroken...; 3/27/20, 6:19 PM
Drago said...: Ken B: "Yep that was it, it wasn't likening people to holocaust deniers. Do assholes really believe their shtick? Or do they just go with the best they have even though it's obvious bullshit?"

Ken B's schtick has grown old and the actual numbers on the ground thus far don't align with his apocalyptic predictions so he retreats further and further into models that have already been proven wrong. All that's left after that is calling the "Pandemic Models That Haven't Been Right Yet" skeptics "deniers".; 3/27/20, 6:19 PM
Inga said...: “So, no, it wasn't you I was referring to -- unless you are one that is OCD on seeing only gloom and doom on this. I don't know if you are or not.

I hope you're not. Too many people are. And it doesn't help anyone.”
———————————————

“Hopefully there will be a vaccine sooner rather than later, medications that are effective, and more people who have immunity, plus the isolation that is taking place now buys time to not overburden the healthcare system and gives them time to get the ventilators and PPE that may be needed.”

This is what I hope for. It doesn’t help anyone to deny what is happening either.; 3/27/20, 6:20 PM
Drago said...: Howard: "Drago changes the subject when confronted with facts that contradict his talking points"

LOL

Let's see if you can get yourself out of that self-inflicted maze.

Should be fun.; 3/27/20, 6:21 PM
Rick said...: Inga said...
You always circle back to your partisan politics. B.O.R.I.N.G

I see Inga's trying reinvent herself again. Now the most insane partisan hack in the history of the blog is pretending to be above partisanship.

She can't keep it bottled up long though, and watch out when it blows.; 3/27/20, 6:21 PM
Howard said...: Liar! Mom told me that spoon was pewter. And all we could afford for our outhouse was last year's monkey Ward's catalog; 3/27/20, 6:22 PM
Mark said...: Hope for the best. Prepare for the worst.; 3/27/20, 6:22 PM
Howard said...: I'm not the one chasing the cheese, boy; 3/27/20, 6:22 PM
Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...: I enjoy a bash Drago thread as much as the next person, but it is truly pointless. His sole goal is to drag Althouse's blog into a ditch by creating a shit show in these comments so that they are about nothing other than Drago's need for attention. I don't like seeing commenters banned and would like to see Ritmo and De Sitter brought back, but if there is an argument for banning anyone it would be Drago. Very destructive to this blog.; 3/27/20, 6:23 PM
cubanbob said...: Being an evil cynic, if we did nothing at all and let life go on as normal and we suffer two million direct coronavirus deaths and paid the families a million bucks each it still will be cheaper than what Congress just passed nevermind the contingent liability the bill has.; 3/27/20, 6:23 PM
Howard said...: It's been fun. You all take care of yourself and your families hopefully I'll see you on the flip side; 3/27/20, 6:24 PM
Drago said...: Shorter Howard: Making myself look confused and inept has been my plan all along!! (cue diabolical laughter)

Hmmmm, maybe Howard is Slow Joe's chief campaign advisor.....; 3/27/20, 6:25 PM
Drago said...: ARM: "I don't like seeing commenters banned and would like to see Ritmo and De Sitter brought back, but if there is an argument for banning anyone it would be Drago. Very destructive to this blog."

LOL

ChiCom propaganda boy has something to say.; 3/27/20, 6:26 PM
Bay Area Guy said...: I like it when Howard broadly psychoanalyzes the commentators here.

When crazy calls you crazy you just might be sane:); 3/27/20, 6:27 PM
Drago said...: ARM is just pissed off that many commenters here have been calling out his transparent ChiCom "cuckholstery".; 3/27/20, 6:28 PM
Inga said...: “I enjoy a bash Drago thread as much as the next person, but it is truly pointless. His sole goal is to drag Althouse's blog into a ditch by creating a shit show in these comments so that they are about nothing other than Drago's need for attention. I don't like seeing commenters banned and would like to see Ritmo and De Sitter brought back, but if there is an argument for banning anyone it would be Drago. Very destructive to this blog.”

Hear hear, he managed to derail this thread pretty thoroughly.; 3/27/20, 6:29 PM
FullMoon said...: Howard said...

It's been fun. You all take care of yourself and your families hopefully I'll see you on the flip side

Hully Gully?; 3/27/20, 6:29 PM
Drago said...: Perhaps since ARM has shown up, we could have him discuss the unbelievably poor quality of the ChiCom test kits the ChiCom's "gave" to other nations.

There are reports that 80% or more of the "donated" test kits are defective, which is going to blow a real hole into ARM's constant praising of the ChiCom pandemic effort.; 3/27/20, 6:30 PM
NKP said...: I've been wondering what the infection numbers are for deployed military forces, especially the US Navy. Known numbers. Known living conditions. Known age and fitness levels.

This afternoon one of the broadcast networks (ABC?) sounded the 'alarm' reporting that 23 crew members aboard the aircraft carrier Roosevelt were now known to be infected. Hard to imagine an environment more challenging for social distancing - at work, at meals and in sleeping quarters.

After noting that all crew would be tested and 'quarantined', deeper in the report, it was acknowledged that crew size was 5,000 and that the only symptoms presented were mild joint aches and sore throats.

Maybe we should quarantine only people at high risk and let the rest of the country get back to work.; 3/27/20, 6:33 PM
fleg9bo said...: Went to the Safeway in our Portland burb late this morning. It wasn't crowded at all and everyone was calm. There was no TP but we did score two big boxes of Kleenex (the store brand, not the real Kleenex). There were maybe five big boxes left after we got ours and a handful of the smaller ones. This was the first time tissue has been available hours after the store opened. There were also paper napkins.; 3/27/20, 6:36 PM
Drago said...: Colonel Mustard: "This afternoon one of the broadcast networks (ABC?) sounded the 'alarm' reporting that 23 crew members aboard the aircraft carrier Roosevelt were now known to be infected. Hard to imagine an environment more challenging for social distancing - at work, at meals and in sleeping quarters.

After noting that all crew would be tested and 'quarantined', deeper in the report, it was acknowledged that crew size was 5,000 and that the only symptoms presented were mild joint aches and sore throats."

I can tell you that the guys and gals on this "boat" (sorry SWO's and Submariners!) are right on top of each other all day every day. If 23 crew members have been exposed, then by now about 1,000 have been exposed with the remaining going to be exposed very shortly.; 3/27/20, 6:37 PM
Mark said...: One of my concerns about the bill is the extent to which it might encourage employers to dump their employees onto the public dole.; 3/27/20, 6:39 PM
Drago said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; 3/27/20, 6:40 PM
Drago said...: An aircraft carrier will be an interesting scenario for testing infection spread and effects on 18 to 45 year olds across all demographics in a relatively "closed" environment.; 3/27/20, 6:40 PM
Mark said...: There was no TP.

It's been a couple of weeks now. What's up with that?

Have the TP factory workers gone on strike? Are they self-quarantining?

Are there no more rugged lumberjacks cutting down trees? Are they spending all their time in high heels eating scones and pressing wild flowers?; 3/27/20, 6:42 PM
wbfjrr2 said...: Stick to law, Althouse. Your math skills are mediocre, coupled with being an alarmist because you personally are afraid. I’m not saying you’re wrong to be personally afraid, maybe you have comorbidity factors.

But it’s interesting you continually create posts and link to scare numbers. Never to good news by actual senior people on the front lines.

You do us a disservice in being so slanted to fear. For a constitutional expert, you also seem perfectly at ease in having your freedoms taken away from you by your state government.

But these latest photos are good. Much better than the succession of dreary gray ones of late.; 3/27/20, 6:44 PM
Inga said...: “I've been wondering what the infection numbers are for deployed military forces, especially the US Navy. Known numbers. Known living conditions. Known age and fitness levels.

This afternoon one of the broadcast networks (ABC?) sounded the 'alarm' reporting that 23 crew members aboard the aircraft carrier Roosevelt were now known to be infected. Hard to imagine an environment more challenging for social distancing - at work, at meals and in sleeping quarters.

After noting that all crew would be tested and 'quarantined', deeper in the report, it was acknowledged that crew size was 5,000 and that the only symptoms presented were mild joint aches and sore throats.”

This is what my daughter a Navy Chief, a FMF Corpsman, is doing at Camp Pendleton.

This link is for public consumption, so I’m giving away no secrets.; 3/27/20, 6:44 PM
Mark said...: You see?

Ad hominems are infectious.; 3/27/20, 6:51 PM
Rick said...: Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...
if there is an argument for banning anyone it would be Drago. Very destructive to this blog.

...says the guy who routinely and intentionally ruins threads.; 3/27/20, 6:55 PM
bagoh20 said...: It looks like we will be about 300 new deaths today, which is up, but as part of the last four days' numbers it still suggests a flattening of that curve.

That's about 10% increase per day in new deaths. Now if you extrapolate that out, you will get that everybody in the Unites States will be dead in about 125 days. The magic of compound interest, but bankers don't do epidemiology.; 3/27/20, 6:56 PM
Bay Area Guy said...: At the end of April, the numbers will be clear that, in a panicked over-reaction to an epidemic much LESS HARMFUL then last year's American flu season, we destroyed a lotta blue collar jobs and put such folks (cabbies, hotel staff, waiters, barbers, airline stewards, etc, etc) through an awful two month period.

How can I predict that, one might ask?

By looking at the relevant numbers today:

US Population: 330 Million
US Deaths by Covid-19: 1,600
5 Deaths per Million= low.

Last year Flu: 34,000 Deaths
103 Deaths per Million = kinda high; 3/27/20, 6:58 PM
Guildofcannonballs said...: --"... simply explain why democrat governors would, for political OrangeManBad reasons, literally outlaw treatments that are being used elsewhere throughout the nation and the world."--

Sadly, you are not realizing what you are encompassing. The "for political OrangeManBad reasons," claim is accurate, but not applicable to why democrat governors would explain any of their actions ever. They lie and profit off of misery and death to a greater extent than what they accused war profiteers of, and I consider them right as Satan and offer Slew McCain's offspring once removed as evidence of these sick fucks' Satanry.

It ought to be an embarrassment to not know why they claim why they are claiming what they claim is needed even via use of Law, in the sense if what they are claiming is wrong you can look and deduce, and/but if they don't make any claims whatsoever then you have nothing to refute, right or wrong from both sides/either side

I have withdrawn my Drago Bi^ch Cu^t labels as is my want/wont.; 3/27/20, 7:01 PM
Mark said...: That's about 10% increase per day in new deaths. Now if you extrapolate that out, you will get that everybody in the Unites States will be dead in about 125 days. The magic of compound interest, but bankers don't do epidemiology.

What's the percentage of people recovering? And if we extrapolate that out, how long before everybody in the Unites States is healthy and immune?; 3/27/20, 7:05 PM
Old and slow said...: Blogger Howard said...

Ken B and Inga touches most of you here quite deeply. The reactions to them are prima facie evidence that you lack confidence of your convictions

You know, usually I'm just annoyed by Howard's comments. But recently he has been hitting the targets with uncanny accuracy...; 3/27/20, 7:09 PM
Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...: There is some good news in this analysis. The rate of growth of new cases is generally declining in US cities.; 3/27/20, 7:11 PM
Guildofcannonballs said...: I came here to the Althouse blog to teach, not learn.

I only teach my desires to spread God's Word, or word as we like. God is what matters.

If you've ever been fortunate to hear and understand what a 30,000' view means, thinking of an infinite view way beyond electron microscope and also congruent trillions and trillions and trillions of space light-years away, abstract thought may be beneficial.

Others, like Bloomberg, ought to stick to monopolies paid off well: God transcends Universal as Always.; 3/27/20, 7:12 PM
Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...: Francisco D ... insane partisan stupidity.; 3/27/20, 7:12 PM
Tomcc said...: Here's the problem, IMO: New York is the hottest of hot spots. Gov. Cuomo indicated today that they've tested 138,376 people. The population of NYC is 8.5M, the SMA is about 20M. The testing that's being conducted is on people that have been exposed, or have symptoms, have travelled to/from countries on the "list", etc.
We don't even have a baseline of a baseline...yet.; 3/27/20, 7:13 PM
Bay Area Guy said...: "Ken B and Inga touches most of you here quite deeply."

Stay 6 feet away. Coronavirus:); 3/27/20, 7:19 PM
MadisonMan said...: Re: TP: we buy a 24-packs of Scott's Ultra, and the last purchase is about half gone.

I think we bought it a month ago. I Have to wonder what TP hoarders are doing.; 3/27/20, 7:22 PM
MadisonMan said...: After noting that all crew would be tested and 'quarantined', deeper in the report, it was acknowledged that crew size was 5,000 and that the only symptoms presented were mild joint aches and sore throats.”

This doesn't sound alarming to me. This is my problem with the outsized reaction to COVID-19. The country shuts down for something that will kill people, yes: but as noted in this thread: Will there be excess deaths, above what is expected during this time of year? Has that happened in NYC, for example? I can find precious little information on that. And that's the kind of information needed to make a rational informed choice.; 3/27/20, 7:32 PM
Mark said...: Althouse headline January 29, 2020

"A chartered plane carrying more than 200 Americans from Wuhan, the epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak in China... would be 'handled in a remote location'..."; 3/27/20, 7:36 PM
Drago said...: Tomcc: "We don't even have a baseline of a baseline...yet."

This point keeps getting made over and over again, which usually sets Ken B off on "you're all DENIALISTS!" rants.; 3/27/20, 7:37 PM
Michael K said...: An aircraft carrier will be an interesting scenario for testing infection spread and effects on 18 to 45 year olds across all demographics in a relatively "closed" environment.

Yes, a younger cruise ship. I'm hoping that by Easter Trump will come to the conclusion that the economy has to be reopened and the group to be sequestered is older folks who are not harmed by loss of income. It's hard to do in NYC and other high density pest holes, but in Tucson AZ and thousands of similar places not ruled by Democrats, it is easy.; 3/27/20, 7:38 PM
Francisco D said...: ARM is working it like a stripper who needs to pay the rent.

Shake that booty, boy!; 3/27/20, 7:40 PM
Inga said...: How some cities ‘flattened the curve’ during the 1918 flu pandemic. Social distancing isn’t a new idea—it saved thousands of American lives during the last great pandemic. Here's how it worked.

For you social distancing skeptics, learn from history.; 3/27/20, 7:43 PM
Yancey Ward said...: "What's the percentage of people recovering? And if we extrapolate that out, how long before everybody in the Unites States is healthy and immune?"

The recovered category in the US finally passed the death category for good today. Expect the recovered category to gain 1000 tomorrow, then 1500 the day after that. Sometime in April, the combination of newly recovered/dead will surpass new cases, and newly recovered will overtake it by itself by May 1st.

Italy will probably reach this point within a week- active cases wills start to fall.; 3/27/20, 7:45 PM
Drago said...: Inga: "For you social distancing skeptics, learn from history."

"social distancing skeptics"...a group which apparently includes no one. Anywhere.; 3/27/20, 7:50 PM
MayBee said...: I wouldn't call what's going on "social distancing" would you? You can get fined for being on the road without a good reason.

Chicago Tribune just sent out an alert that Mayor Lightfoot is asking people to turn in companies that are non-essential that still seem to be open. Call 311 and report them, and they can get up to a $10,000 fine. Is that social distancing?; 3/27/20, 7:51 PM
Yancey Ward said...: "I think we bought it a month ago. I Have to wonder what TP hoarders are doing."

Planning for their retirement in the post-Covpocalyptic world. They plan to rule that world with a double-ply fist.; 3/27/20, 7:51 PM
Michael K said...: Ignoring Inga and her "social distancing", I just ordered take out from a favorite restaurant in Tucson and added a tip. I will pick it up in 45 minutes.

I suggest others do the same. Today there is a very good discussion on Ricochet about the economic consequences of this and one participant mentioned how his wife ordered a take out dinner from a well known Palo Alto restaurant and was met by the owner who had tears in his eyes. It was the first take out dinner order he had had. He was about to lose his business.

Of course he does have Pelosi and Newsom representing him.; 3/27/20, 7:57 PM
Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...: Francisco D, a stripper who needs to pay the rent.; 3/27/20, 7:57 PM
Inga said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; 3/27/20, 8:01 PM
Yancey Ward said...: For all: Covid testing, including pending.

MacBride helpfully includes the percent positive. The ups and downs in the positives reflects the tightening and loosening of requirements that had to be met to get a test. Initially, they were really tight, as most of you remember. Then the CDC relented, and, for a while, only required symptoms. New York and New Jersey, though, tightened the requirements again in order to not waste testing resources on people who didn't have known contacts with confirmed cases. Still, the percent positive has meandered between 8-19% positive, with New York and New Jersey above that, but everywhere else willing to just take people with symptoms.

If you set this graph next to the US new cases bar graph, you can't help but notice that they correspond with each other- the main discrepancy is caused by New York and New Jersey's rules for getting a test in the first place, and in the early days when the CDC was doing the same thing.

The thing to watch for is that percent positive line on MacBride's graph- as the testing expands, that will start trending down for good.; 3/27/20, 8:01 PM
FullMoon said...: Re: TP: we buy a 24-packs of Scott's Ultra, and the last purchase is about half gone.

Walgreens actually had some single rolls on the shelf this afternoon. The things you see when you don't have a camera!; 3/27/20, 8:01 PM
Ken B said...: Drago at 6:19 fakes a quote from me. I guess I should be glad he only faked one.; 3/27/20, 8:02 PM
Inga said...: “Ignoring Inga and her "social distancing", I just ordered take out from a favorite restaurant in Tucson and added a tip. I will pick it up in 45 minutes.”

Haha, Michael K feels the need to announce he’s ignoring me instead of just ignoring me. Childish; 3/27/20, 8:03 PM
Yancey Ward said...: He updates that graph every morning- it easier to digest the data this way than the tracking project's spreadsheet.

By the way- in California it still shows over half the tests are pending. What is up with that? Has Newsome found China's secret to stopping the panic?; 3/27/20, 8:03 PM
FullMoon said...: ....and, the store had marked at six foot intervals leading to cash registers. Makes distancing easy.; 3/27/20, 8:03 PM
Drago said...: Ken B: "Drago at 6:19 fakes a quote from me. I guess I should be glad he only faked one."

You've been calling anyone who disagrees with your apocalyptic visions or ridiculous statistical "analyses" "denialists" for many weeks now.

I suppose now is as good a time to start walking that back as any.

Good luck with that.; 3/27/20, 8:05 PM
Yancey Ward said...: I found a 4 pack of toilet paper at Food City here in Oak Ridge yesterday, but that wasn't enough for my mother- she went on a hunt today and found a 24 pack of Scotts at an Aldi's here in town. So, our financial empire of the future is set in the case of collapse, or if this turns into a nothingburger, I won't have to buy toilet paper until next year.; 3/27/20, 8:07 PM
Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...: Ken B said...
Drago at 6:19 fakes a quote from me. I guess I should be glad he only faked one.

He does this routinely. It is such a bad faith move that it should, by itself, result in him being banned.; 3/27/20, 8:09 PM
Yancey Ward said...: "You've been calling anyone who disagrees with your apocalyptic visions or ridiculous statistical "analyses" "denialists" for many weeks now."

Now, now, Drago. I have defend Ken here- he only called me an innumerate covidiot.; 3/27/20, 8:09 PM
Ken B said...: As of right now
United States

Coronavirus Cases:
103,798
Deaths:
1,693

That’s higher than what I posted a few hours ago.; 3/27/20, 8:10 PM
Inga said...: “He does this routinely. It is such a bad faith move that it should, by itself, result in him being banned.”

Yep.; 3/27/20, 8:10 PM
Drago said...: YW: "Now, now, Drago. I have defend Ken here- he only called me an innumerate covidiot."

Well, then you're in luck. Today Ken B referred generally to those who disagree with him as...both!

Congrats, and welcome to the club.; 3/27/20, 8:11 PM
Drago said...: ARM and Inga (the banned commenter), demanding I be banned.

LOL

I'm surprised ARM was able to post something without referencing a ChiCom press release first.

Baby steps people, baby steps.; 3/27/20, 8:13 PM
Bay Area Guy said...: He who shall not be named published some relevant numbers above - well done!

Need to add, though, US population - 330 Million.

Progress!; 3/27/20, 8:13 PM
Inga said...: “ARM and Inga (the banned commenter), demanding I be banned.”

Just giving you some of your own medicine.; 3/27/20, 8:14 PM
Drago said...: Still waiting to hear from ARM on the incredible high-defect rates of the ChiCom provided test kits "donated" to other countries.

I suspect there will have to be a quick huddle up on Team Dem to figure out why this was Trump's fault.; 3/27/20, 8:14 PM
Drago said...: Inga the Russia Collusion/Carter Page Truther: "Just giving you some of your own medicine."

LOL

Sure you are.; 3/27/20, 8:15 PM
Drago said...: Inga: "Just giving you some of your own medicine."

Last time I checked, it was the blog moderators that banned you. I don't believe I played any role in that decision tree.; 3/27/20, 8:16 PM
Inga said...: Hey everyone! Drago needs some more attention, pay attention to Drago.; 3/27/20, 8:17 PM
Drago said...: Inga: "Hey everyone! Drago needs some more attention, pay attention to Drago."

Hmmmm. Sounds off topic to me.

Discuss.; 3/27/20, 8:18 PM
Tomcc said...: Yancey Ward: thanks for that graph/link.; 3/27/20, 8:20 PM
Drago said...: Great News Everyone!

Joe Biden woke up long enough to pen this little twitter masterpiece:

Joe Biden✔@JoeBiden

If I were President, here's what I would do right now:

- Use all available authorities to turn the tide on this epidemic
- Launch a task force to ensure money rapidly gets to people who need it
- Bring leaders of Congress together to build the next deal

March 26, 2020 2:00pm

Thank goodness! Not a moment too soon!; 3/27/20, 8:21 PM
Bay Area Guy said...: I have a very smart friend - a professor of math at some college - who attempted to rebuke me on the same numbers I have posted ad nauseum here.

He said "cases" is a more relevant metric than "deaths".

I reminded him that many "cases" are mild and recover. So, ya should be reducing the actual case numbers by recoveries. (This however jacks up the CFR, but that's a separate issue)

He reminded me that "deaths" are inflated at least by 25% - since the literature is replete with studies comparing autopsy results to death certificate proclamations by doctors - show error rates of 25%, particularly with respiratory illnesses.

So, we are at a loggerheads.; 3/27/20, 8:22 PM
Mark said...: On now --

"Why, it profits a man nothing to gain the whole world and lose his soul. But for Wales?"; 3/27/20, 8:22 PM
Drago said...: Mark: ""Why, it profits a man nothing to gain the whole world and lose his soul. But for Wales?"

Speaking of Wales, what's the latest on Prince Charles?; 3/27/20, 8:23 PM
Yancey Ward said...: I feel sorry for Biden- as irrelevant as any politician of his stature has probably ever been. What an ignomious end.; 3/27/20, 8:23 PM
Mark said...: There's a line that we should remember more often --

Death comes for us all, yea, even for kings.; 3/27/20, 8:24 PM
Ken B said...: I am pretty sure Althouse is interested in who is “helping”. Much more interested in that than who was banned once upon a time.

Inga is helping. She has answered technical medical questions. She has tried to provide useful information, and has done so.

Look at who is sniping at her endlessly about unimportant stuff. A poster who has done none of those things.; 3/27/20, 8:24 PM
Guildofcannonballs said...: I'm a Buckley sychophant that would harm myself only thinking "why am I so stupid I can't even hagiography well" about one of the greatest men, an American, The American in some circles, as it is, William Frank Buckley Junior.; 3/27/20, 8:25 PM
FullMoon said...: Joe Biden✔@JoeBiden

If I were President, here's what I would do right now:

- Use all available authorities to turn the tide on this epidemic
- Launch a task force to ensure money rapidly gets to people who need it
- Bring leaders of Congress together to build the next deal

March 26, 2020 2:00pm

Impressively detailed. Musta been up all night working on that plan.; 3/27/20, 8:27 PM
Yancey Ward said...: A Man For All Seasons, I think. Been a long time since I have seen the movie, but the Wales thing rings a loud bell. I never read the play.; 3/27/20, 8:27 PM
Drago said...: Ken B: "Inga is helping. She has answered technical medical questions. She has tried to provide useful information, and has done so.

Look at who is sniping at her endlessly about unimportant stuff. A poster who has done none of those things."

Michael K is a medical professional with a broad range of experience and insight. He has provided much useful information and guidance and is helping.

Yet Ken B continuously snipes at Michael K every time Michael posts and especially when Michael doesn't immediately accept whatever statistical nonsense Ken B is peddling that day.

Discuss.; 3/27/20, 8:28 PM
Ken B said...: No Yancey. Be fair. I specifically said you were not innumerate.
You are a sad case I said because you should know better. But you are not innumerate. I think that makes it worse actually.

And we have an appointment in 19 days to see how well our respective analyses are doing.; 3/27/20, 8:28 PM
Drago said...: Ken B: "You are a sad case I said because you should know better. But you are not innumerate. I think that makes it worse actually."

Ken B. Sniping at others again.

Sad really.

Not helping.; 3/27/20, 8:29 PM
Yancey Ward said...: I just look it up- I could have sworn George Bernard Shaw wrote that, but no, Robert Bolt.; 3/27/20, 8:29 PM
Mark said...: A Man For All Seasons

The tale -- a true tale -- of a man that was condemned for what he did NOT say, for remaining silent. For failing to give in to the demands to conform.; 3/27/20, 8:32 PM
Drago said...: Mark: "A Man For All Seasons

The tale -- a true tale -- of a man that was condemned for what he did NOT say, for remaining silent. For failing to give in to the demands to conform."

Certainly an appropriate moment, on this blog and elsewhere, to reference just such a man.; 3/27/20, 8:33 PM
Tomcc said...: Oy, poor Joe Biden. He left out "empower".; 3/27/20, 8:33 PM
Yancey Ward said...: No, Ken, you don't get off the hook. You said I didn't understand math. Sorry, dude- the world is moving in my direction, as the article this blog post discussed demonstrates in no uncertain terms. By next week, all the models will be showing something much closer to my predictions. All of these truly ludicrous predictions about the death totals are being quickly withdrawn.

That is thing I don't get- those predictions never lined up with any data at all- ever. And yet a lot people gave them credence.; 3/27/20, 8:33 PM
Mark said...: The New Number Two tries to get Sir Thomas to talk, but has no more success than he did with Number Six.; 3/27/20, 8:34 PM
Guildofcannonballs said...: the idea althouse allowed

William Frank Buckley did things. His name and honor was associated with things WFB did, and we will reparation more than you can comprehend, Because Reagan never happend.

Althouse, awarely, knows Reagan never happened.; 3/27/20, 8:34 PM
Drago said...: There would be some here at Althouse who would likely have termed Sir Thomas More an annulment denialist.; 3/27/20, 8:36 PM
Mark said...: "Some men think the Earth is round, others think it flat; it is a matter capable of question. But if it is flat, will the King’s command make it round? And if it is round, will the King’s command flatten it?"

Two words --

Trans

Gender; 3/27/20, 8:37 PM
MayBee said...: Fox says Biden still polling ahead of Trump, 49-40; 3/27/20, 8:40 PM
Guildofcannonballs said...: In the past, including to my forever, neverending shame deserved, people who profitted from the state that paid their profiting, it took horrible things to correct.

ONLY because of my hatred of that anti-American embodied Spaniard, who we know is doing oh so very well, waiting for more timely anti-American attacks, do I think back to the one time I left America.

The Spaniards sucked so much in 2005 they are pissing me off to this day.

In Ireland, the only fucking time I've left this greatest of all homelands conceived, the Goddamned Spanish elections got Islamed.; 3/27/20, 8:41 PM
MayBee said...: It seems that "we are 10 days behind Italy" is a talking point that never happened.; 3/27/20, 8:41 PM
Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...: Ken B said...
we have an appointment in 19 days to see how well our respective analyses are doing.

It is unfortunate that everyone wasn't asked to make predictions about the progress of the plague earlier. I would have done quite badly. It never occurred to me that the US would pass Italy for number of cases. I still don't think we will have more deaths, but less certain than I was.; 3/27/20, 8:42 PM
Browndog said...: ordan Schachtel
‏Verified account @JordanSchachtel

Hardest hit countries from COVID-19 (deaths/million):
1) Italy 136
2) Spain 104
3) Netherlands 32
4) France 26
5) Belgium 25
6) Switzerland 24
All pursuing harsh lockdown policy^

No lockdown but social distancing:

S Korea 3
Taiwan 0.08
Japan 0.4
Singapore 0.3

Worth monitoring.
7:16 AM - 27 Mar 2020; 3/27/20, 8:43 PM
Guildofcannonballs said...: Ireland is a great country.

Odds anyone from America goes there in five years?

Shit odds.

Lot of suffering, hope they get more refugees to show them Irish aren't prone to other-than-what-these-no-doubt-genius will do once arrived.; 3/27/20, 8:43 PM
narciso said...: Only if you use the wrong metric maybee; 3/27/20, 8:44 PM
Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...: MayBee said...
Fox says Biden still polling ahead of Trump, 49-40

A stuffed aardvark would be ahead. Biden is probably under-performing relative to the stuffed aardvark.; 3/27/20, 8:45 PM
Mark said...: It's a good movie - A Man For All Seasons.

But they could do a better job showing the passage of time. The action actually takes place over a number of years, but the movie makes it seem just a matter of weeks.

It's confusing the first few times you watch it, especially if you do not know the history.; 3/27/20, 8:46 PM
Drago said...: ARM: "It never occurred to me that the US would pass Italy for number of cases."

US Population = Italy Population X 5

Yes, I can see how you were "blindsided".; 3/27/20, 8:48 PM
Mark said...: The coup plotters may still prevail.; 3/27/20, 8:48 PM
bagoh20 said...: "What's the percentage of people recovering? And if we extrapolate that out, how long before everybody in the Unites States is healthy and immune?"

Ahh, very good, Grasshopper. You have done well.; 3/27/20, 8:50 PM
Mark said...: Richard Rich -- the patron demon of modern politicians; 3/27/20, 8:51 PM
Drago said...: Just today Gov Cuomo "remembered" NY has thousands more ventilators in storage and lots more hospital beds and the morgues are lightyears away from being full.

I wonder what happened in the last 48 hours to "help" Cuomo "remember" those things?; 3/27/20, 8:52 PM
Drago said...: You know, it never occurred to me that the US would be ahead of Iceland in the number of motor vehicles.; 3/27/20, 8:53 PM
Drago said...: You know, it never occurred to me that the US would be ahead of Brazil in the number of non-Brazilians.; 3/27/20, 8:54 PM
Sebastian said...: What do y'all think the next backpedaling tropes will be?

I predict:

4. "But the experts told us!"
5. "We were only trying to help!"
6. "Who knew the economy could fall so fast?"

Coming after:

1. "We had real calculations."
2. "What if we hadn't?"
3. "Excess deaths? We never thought of that. Sorry."; 3/27/20, 8:55 PM
Drago said...: ARM: "A stuffed aardvark would be ahead. Biden is probably under-performing relative to the stuffed aardvark."

Sounds like a cakewalk to victory for Biden.I guess he doesnt have to worry about all those dems who are desperate to remove him.

Good for him.; 3/27/20, 8:57 PM
Drago said...: Sebastian: "What do y'all think the next backpedaling tropes will be?"

I suspect something like: Trump altered mathematics....in a racist way.; 3/27/20, 8:58 PM
Kyjo said...: @MayBee, I commented on the “10 days behind Italy” here. I wrote in part;

Today we have 1,082 deaths, and that number will likely move up before the day’s end. Italy reported 1,016 deaths on 3/12 and 1,266 deaths on 3/13, so if we’re 10 days behind them on a similar curve we’ll be looking at 5,500-6,000 total deaths by 4/5.

The count yesterday (according to Worldometers via Wikipedia) was 1,159, in between Italy’s figures for 3/12 and 3/13. Today’s count (according to Worldometers) is 1,695, in between Italy’s figures for 3/14 and 3/15. So perhaps now we’re close to matching Italy’s curve from 10 days ago, but it took us a lot longer to get here. We’ll see how it plays out over the next week. And, as I also noted: Per capita, we’d need to get up to around 32,000 deaths by 4/5 to match Italy’s situation on 3/23. But that’s per capita.; 3/27/20, 9:03 PM
Drago said...: "An overwhelming number of polls released over the last week show a majority of the American people approve of President Trump’s handling of the Wuhan coronavirus crisis, with his overall approval ratings at record highs."

Cue Sad Trombone for ARM.; 3/27/20, 9:05 PM
Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...: If the pro-caution people can be accused of panic then the 'economic world is ending' are at least as hysterical. I just watched Larry Kudlow, there's no problem, 3% GDP growth just around the corner.; 3/27/20, 9:06 PM
MayBee said...: Kyjo- thank you.

Per capita is the only way to compare, really.; 3/27/20, 9:10 PM
Ken B said...: “It is unfortunate that everyone wasn't asked to make predictions about the progress of the plague earlier. I would have done quite badly. “

Nearly every prediction would have done badly because there is so much that is unknowable. Even the experts don’t know what we will see tomorrow.

But some ventured pretty certain predictions. Ward said 7500 dead in the US, tops. I asked him two days ago if he stood by that. He did. He's confident. I hope no one relies on his confident assurances.; 3/27/20, 9:11 PM