Althouse: "The coronavirus pandemic could kill more than 81,000 people in the United States in the next four months and may not subside until June..."

March 27, 2020

"The coronavirus pandemic could kill more than 81,000 people in the United States in the next four months and may not subside until June..."

"... according to a data analysis done by University of Washington School of Medicine. The number of hospitalized patients is expected to peak nationally by the second week of April, though the peak may come later in some states. Some people could continue to die of the virus as late as July, although deaths should be below epidemic levels of 10 per day by June at the latest, according to the analysis. The analysis, using data from governments, hospitals and other sources, predicts that the number of U.S. deaths could vary widely, ranging from as low as around 38,000 to as high as around 162,000."

Reuters reports.

This is reassuring.

434 comments:

1 – 200 of 434 Newer› Newest»

Chris said...: Garbage in Garbage out. They don't know the true infection rate. You can't know the CFR unless you know that. They need to get antibody testing going ASAP.; 3/27/20, 1:05 PM
Anonymous said...: Much better than the 2 MILLION everyone was panicking about last week.; 3/27/20, 1:05 PM
Mark O said...: One should ask what assumptions drive the conclusion.; 3/27/20, 1:07 PM
NorthOfTheOneOhOne said...: I find it best to keep Conquest's First Law in mind during times like this. "Everyone is conservative about what he/she/xe knows best".; 3/27/20, 1:08 PM
Ann Althouse said...: The numbers in the millions are the high estimate that will happen if we don't do social distancing, if the infection rate is above 2 per person, if the death rate is above 2%, and if medical resources run out. It was not a "panic," but a real calculation based on factors that could occur. If all the worst factors come to be, then 2 million is lower than the realistic amount, and I am saying that without feeling panic.

How many people would die if Yellowstone erupted? Tell me a number. It will be extremely high, and yet you will probably not be panicking.; 3/27/20, 1:08 PM
Freeman Hunt said...: From the article:

The analysis assumes close adherence to infection prevention measures imposed by federal, state and local governments.

"The trajectory of the pandemic will change – and dramatically for the worse – if people ease up on social distancing or relax with other precautions," Murray said in a statement.; 3/27/20, 1:09 PM
Ann Althouse said...: The answer is 5 billion.; 3/27/20, 1:09 PM
Michael K said...: Washington state already has a declining number of cases.

At EvergreenHealth Medical Center, two miles from the shuttered Lifecare nursing home where 35 patient deaths were linked to the virus, officials say their rate of new covid-19 cases has remained steady for two weeks, leveling off at a trickle. On some days, doctors here see just one new case and haven’t seen more than four in a single day since mid-March. Few need admission to the intensive care unit, which is now half full, two weeks after overflow necessitated transfers to nearby hospitals.; 3/27/20, 1:10 PM
YoungHegelian said...: It is reassuring, but there are all sorts of reports from all kinds of health organizations. The truth is, we just don't know, and probably won't know until 2 years or so after the pandemic squeaks to a close.

Decent people are going to have to make the best calls they can amid competing moral, economic, & medical interests. Some of them are going to turn out to be wrong, possibly horribly so. People are going to die, and no matter what the number, it won't be pretty.

There's gonna have to be a lot of forgiveness to go around after this. I'm thinking that won't happen.; 3/27/20, 1:12 PM
rcocean said...: I'd wish they'd give us the Death rate percentage, that's the key. Remember, the number of people infected isn't really changed by social distancing, we're just flattening the curve. Dr. Fauci also talked about how this might go into the next flu season, in which case a vaccine will be very helpful.; 3/27/20, 1:12 PM
Sebastian said...: And how many of those are people who would have died anyway -- i.e., what is the number of excess deaths?

If 81K: a bad flu. If 160K; on the order of regular respiratory disease deaths.

For that, we try to ruin the economy and waste trillions.

And then the chorus of panickers begins: but if we hadn't etc. etc.; 3/27/20, 1:13 PM
rcocean said...: Social distancing changes the timing of when people will get infected. It slows it, but doesn't stop it.; 3/27/20, 1:13 PM
Nonapod said...: Looking at it now 80,000 still seems a bit high to me. But I've been wrong before.

The numbers of deaths per day and hospitilizations are still growing, but they aren't growing as fast as before. Earlier this week, it looked like the death and hospitilization numbers were doubling every two days, now it looks like the total is doubling every four days. If that trend continues (which is far from guaranteed) it doesn't seem like we'd hit 80,000.; 3/27/20, 1:18 PM
rehajm said...: We should be hearing more anecdotal evidence about the effectiveness of the malaria drug combo from US doctors right about now. That would really be telling for the trajectory.; 3/27/20, 1:19 PM
rcocean said...: Andrew Sullivan is already laying the DNC-MSM narrative about the Pandemic. Y'see even if we get through it with 80,000 deaths by July AND the economy bounces back - Trump deserves ZERO credit.

The Chinese/EU Travel Ban? Xenophobic Trump just got lucky. Trump's shutting down things in March? Too little too late, and due only to his advisers. Trump's day to day involvement in getting supplies, coordinating with other countries, and press conferences? Immaterial and incompetent.

So just like everything else, things may be good - but Orange Man is always Bad.; 3/27/20, 1:19 PM
chuck said...: That actually sounds somewhat realistic. We will see.; 3/27/20, 1:20 PM
Churchy LaFemme: said...: How many people would die if Yellowstone erupted? Tell me a number. It will be extremely high, and yet you will probably not be panicking.

Enough that Earth needs to be terraformed afterwards..; 3/27/20, 1:22 PM
robother said...: Many (maybe most) of the deaths attributed to COVID are probably from the regular flu. One theory I've heard is that the COVID simply suppresses the immune system and the bad and fatal cases are mostly in folks who didn't get the regular flu shot, or who have other morbidities. In Italy and US, no-one is testing for other flu, if the person is COVID positive, that is listed as the cause of death. Given the virulence of the flu bug going around before all this, likely 60,000 deaths that will be attributed to COVID would've occurred regardless.; 3/27/20, 1:22 PM
chuck said...: For that, we try to ruin the economy and waste trillions.

And what would the estimate be if no measures were taken? Much, much, higher. Which is why no one has been willing to make that experiment.; 3/27/20, 1:23 PM
Automatic_Wing said...: It was not a "panic," but a real calculation based on factors that could occur.

I think that makes the "calculations" sound a lot more data driven than they actually are. They have their spreadsheets and formulas, but the assumptions the formulas are based on are really just guesses. Thus we have estimated death tolls being revised downwards by a factor of 25 because the UK did closed some businesses for 3 days.

In fairness, there's not a lot of data to work with since it is a "novel" virus. So the experts made their best guesses and gave us some numbers, which is what was demanded of them. But I don't think any of us should place a lot of faith in the numbers these models produce.

I really hope some better data is being gathered as this goes on. How are grocery store workers doing? A lot of them getting sick? Or not so much? I haven't heard anything either way. Knowing the infection rate of non social distancers would help us to understand the actual transmission rate a lot better.; 3/27/20, 1:23 PM
Bay Area Guy said...: Glad Ann is reassured.

Two quick points:

1. The prior well publicized prediction splashed all over Drudge and other outlets was 81% infections in US and 2.2 Million deaths. .

2. Last winter flu deaths in US was 34,000. Source: CDC .

Yes, I know the govt folks (including Trump) will take credit for all the stuff they did to stop the spread of infection and save us all. And, boy, we really dodged a bullet that time, and boy we need to shelter in place even more, next winter. That's how life works.

But, I reckon, my question is, what will the next revision downward be?; 3/27/20, 1:24 PM
rcocean said...: Peak Hospitalizations in mid April. That means we'll soon see if their numbers of 80,000 deaths is accurate. If there's one number we accurate data on, its the number deaths per 100 Hospitalized.; 3/27/20, 1:24 PM
narciso said...: they don't know why it spreads differently in different regions,; 3/27/20, 1:27 PM
Bob Boyd said...: The answer is 5 billion.

That's a lot, but on the other hand, my government check for something like that will be YUGE!; 3/27/20, 1:28 PM
Bushman of the Kohlrabi said...: How many people would die if Yellowstone erupted? Tell me a number. It will be extremely high, and yet you will probably not be panicking.

It depends on whether Yellowstone is erupting as I tell you.; 3/27/20, 1:30 PM
Drago said...: rcocean: "Peak Hospitalizations in mid April. That means we'll soon see if their numbers of 80,000 deaths is accurate. If there's one number we accurate data on, its the number deaths per 100 Hospitalized."

If democrat governors keep outlawing medicines and procedures that could save lives in order to bump up the numbers, all bets are off.

And before anyone starts to scream about "nobody wants anyone to die", simply explain why democrat governors would, for political OrangeManBad reasons, literally outlaw treatments that are being used elsewhere throughout the nation and the world.

Go ahead. I'm all ears.; 3/27/20, 1:30 PM
jnseward said...: There is not really any data to support these projections. They are based almost entirely on how you feel about President Trump. Hate him? It looks really bad. Love him? It looks like it's not going to be a problem. Wishful thinking in both cases.; 3/27/20, 1:32 PM
Inga said...: That 81,000 isn’t the totality of the possible deaths. If this follows the way the 1918 Flu spread, it died down in the warmer months and came back with a vengeance in fall into winter. Hopefully there will be a vaccine sooner rather than later, medications that are effective, and more people who have immunity, plus the isolation that is taking place now buys time to not overburden the healthcare system and gives them time to get the ventilators and PPE that may be needed.; 3/27/20, 1:32 PM
clint said...: Sounds about right -- and even those numbers are assuming that none of the treatments really pan out.; 3/27/20, 1:35 PM
gerry said...: Washington University School of Medicine.

How much political correctness has penetrated the empirical sciences?

It's fake news.

Never let a crisis go to waste.; 3/27/20, 1:36 PM
n.n said...: Another model, or rather the given parameters, predicts as low as 20,000. The observable trend is in the thousands. There is an open question of viability, but the models are at present running "hot". Deja vu.; 3/27/20, 1:37 PM
n.n said...: Mechanical ventilation in patients in the intensive care unit of a general university hospital in southern Brazil: an epidemiological study

A total of 1,115 patients admitted to the ICU needed mechanical ventilation. The mortality rate was 51%
...
This large cohort study provides a comprehensive profile of mechanical ventilation patients in South America. The mortality rate of patients who required mechanical ventilation was higher, which may have been related to the severity of illness of the patients admitted to our ICU. Risk factors for hospital mortality included conditions present at the start of mechanical ventilation conditions that occurred during mechanical support.; 3/27/20, 1:38 PM
Bushman of the Kohlrabi said...: It's good that we've dropped that peak-crazy number of 11,000,000. It's a sign that some level of sanity has returned.; 3/27/20, 1:39 PM
Douglas B. Levene said...: Considering that the Imperial College analysis that prompted the initial lockdown predicted 2,000,000 deaths in the US, the new prediction of 80,000 deaths is reassuring.; 3/27/20, 1:39 PM
Amadeus 48 said...: "This is reassuring."
Only to you, Althouse. The death toll will be what it is, but I am thinking a lower number than 60,000, which was the seasonal flu death toll two years ago (and we didn't do any social distancing or wreck our economy then).
Time will tell.; 3/27/20, 1:39 PM
The Cracker Emcee Refulgent said...: "The answer is 5 billion"

Well, yeah.
I'm no expert but near-term infection rate predictions since, oh, the Black Death, have a strong measure of bullshit baked in. There are far too many variables. And the analysis afterwards will be tainted by untold amounts of ball-spiking, rent-seeking, blame-placing and a thousand other factors. Science may be pure, scientists are anything but.; 3/27/20, 1:40 PM
n.n said...: 340,000 coronavirus test kits sold to Spain by China defective; 3/27/20, 1:40 PM
Shouting Thomas said...: This panic was a fraud engineered by the Chinese Communist Party, the Democratic Party and the Democratic media.; 3/27/20, 1:41 PM
Sebastian said...: "real calculation based on factors that could occur"

Ah, "could." The question, of course, was always how to judge the probability of any outlandish scenario. Since the panickers had no reasonable basis for their wild guesses, the "calculation" was always just panic fuel.

But it will be useful to keep track of the the panickers' backtracking.

"Real calculation" is on the list.

But I am sincerely glad Althouse is reassured. So am I.

Now, about the economy: I am optimistic, but not "reassured." The panic has already done untold harm.; 3/27/20, 1:41 PM
Buckwheathikes said...: Ann should probably be even more reassured. I'm pretty sure I got Covid 19 last July. All the exact same symptoms (low-grade fever, horrible coughing for a week. Could only sleep in 1-hour intervals. I eventually lost my voice for 3 weeks, massive fluid in the lungs, etc.)

I believe it's been around far longer than is currently acknowledged, which if true means the infection rate is far lower than currently estimated.; 3/27/20, 1:42 PM
n.n said...: "The answer is 5 billion"

Infections? With globalism, and communities without borders, perhaps. Disease, and especially loss of viability? Probably not.; 3/27/20, 1:42 PM
Sebastian said...: By the way, has any athlete come down with any serious symptoms yet?

If not, why not start sports back up now?; 3/27/20, 1:44 PM
Pettifogger said...: At 162,000 deaths, you have to round up to get to five basis points of the population. I hope not to be among the 162,000, but that number does not represent a catastrophe for the country.; 3/27/20, 1:45 PM
n.n said...: This panic was a fraud engineered by the Chinese Communist Party, the Democratic Party and the Democratic media.

After spreading a social contagion for 12, 16, 20 trimesters, the possibility of collusion and division is a plausible, even possible, perhaps probable progression.; 3/27/20, 1:46 PM
Amadeus 48 said...: Inga--Are you counting on the public health practices and knowledge of 100 years ago (1918-1919)? If so, you are a troll.

On the other hand, because various governors and their medical advisers are relying on the medical techniques of the 14th century(i.e., quarantining), maybe I shouldn't be surprised.; 3/27/20, 1:46 PM
narciso said...: now 20,000 was the adjusted number for the uk, so scale up for us population, and 80k seems reasonable, the circumstances were different with the Spanish influenza of 1918,; 3/27/20, 1:46 PM
JAORE said...: A WAG times an unknown to the who-the-hell-knows power = Trump failed!

Estimated range, as best I can tell form 20,000 (why did we panic) to 2+ million (end times). Two orders of magnitude means the numbers are worthless, especially filtered through media.

Might as well study election polls for the 2024 POTUS run.

FWIW if the left rounded up enough pundits and seismologists (who can't predict crap either) and filled the airwaves with, "SHE'S GONNA BLOW!" we'd see some panic for sure. Then factor in this-will-harm-Trump and many would be going out for more TP today.; 3/27/20, 1:48 PM
Ken B said...: It’s not even a blog anymore. It’s a covidiot scrum. The report explicitly says the numbers are based on people sticking to the distancing. But then you get
“ If 81K: a bad flu ...And then the chorus of panickers begins: but if we hadn't etc. etc.”; 3/27/20, 1:48 PM
Greg the class traitor said...: I believe that the actual number of Chinese Coronavirus deaths in the US will range between 10k and 20k, but be closer to the 10k.

So we'll see who's right; 3/27/20, 1:48 PM
Freeman Hunt said...: Does anyone read?; 3/27/20, 1:50 PM
Shouting Thomas said...: The Democrats have been stating for months, maybe for years, that the way to bring down Trump was thru a collapse of the markets and the economy.

The Chinese heard them.

The Chinese are retaliating for Trump's trade war and his attempts to repatriate manufacturing to the U.S.; 3/27/20, 1:51 PM
Sydney said...: In Ohio we are expecting the peak in early to mid May. Going to be a long haul.; 3/27/20, 1:51 PM
n.n said...: By the way, has any athlete come down with any serious symptoms yet?

Given chaos (e.g. evolution), that athlete may become inviable without warning. That's not the metric that matters. The goal is be prudent, bold, and to mitigate both planned parenthood, planned parent, and excess deaths in the population caused by the Wuhan-sourced virus, not merely coincident with other, perhaps opportunistic, factors, and collateral damage.; 3/27/20, 1:52 PM
narciso said...: they don't explain where they get their numbers from what is the projected R, why they can't identify the variation in growth, between regions,; 3/27/20, 1:52 PM
Ken B said...: AA asks how many die if Yellowstone erupts. Then she gives the answer : 5 billion. Then the covidiots pretend she means 5 billion covid infections.; 3/27/20, 1:53 PM
Dude1394 said...: Our “elite” continue to not impress. The media is just evil.; 3/27/20, 1:53 PM
Kathryn51 said...: Interesting that the Reuters article doesn't link to the actual site.

Here is it: IHME Covid19

You can find predictions for each state with information on impact of hospital bed-days, ICU-days, ventilator days and deaths by US state in the next 4 months.

However, the RANGE (best case/worst case) is mind-numbingly huge.

Maybe someone who understands statistical analysis can explain this statement: "We estimate that there will a total of 81,114 deaths (We estimate that there will a total of 81,114 deaths (95% UI 38,242 to 162,106) from COVID-19 over the next 4 months in the US.; 3/27/20, 1:54 PM
Ken B said...: Blogger Freeman Hunt said...
Does anyone read?

I posted the same question days ago.; 3/27/20, 1:54 PM
narciso said...: he has less of a track record than ferguson,; 3/27/20, 1:56 PM
bagoh20 said...: 22 million down to 11 million down to 2.2 million down to 1 million down to 81,000 down to...

It's a nice progression. The virus is losing the propaganda wars.

We are at nearly 100,000 cases. That's soon to be 100,000 immunized defenders blocking the virus, and most of them will create many more new soldiers on the wall..."exponentially"

"“If you strike me down, I shall become more powerful than you can possibly imagine.”; 3/27/20, 1:57 PM
Michael K said...: Ken B said...
It’s not even a blog anymore. It’s a covidiot scrum.

I'm getting very tired of this jerk.; 3/27/20, 1:57 PM
Greg the class traitor said...: chuck said...
For that, we try to ruin the economy and waste trillions.

And what would the estimate be if no measures were taken? Much, much, higher. Which is why no one has been willing to make that experiment.

If every single American caught the Chinese Coronavirus, AND it killed 3%, then we'd be looking at about 10 million dead Americans, most of them out of the workforce.

The normal "life value" is $1 million per dead person. Since the Chinese Coronavirus tend to be older, perhaps we can call it $500,000 / person?

That puts the total "Cost" to the US of those people dying at $5 trillion to $10 trillion.

Congress just passed a $2 trillion "stimulus package" to deal with some of the costs of the Chinese Coronavirus. Add in all the jobs destroyed, businesses probably destroyed, all the lives still lost, all the suicides from unemployment and business failure.

Pretty sure we're going to "beat" that $10 trillion.; 3/27/20, 1:58 PM
n.n said...: they don't explain where they get their numbers from what is the projected R, why they can't identify the variation in growth, between regions,

Exact;y/ The reason for the range is parameterized models estimating reality. The reason for the adjustment is because of disparity between model projections and observations.; 3/27/20, 1:58 PM
Ken B said...: “
Maybe someone who understands statistical analysis can explain this statement: "We estimate that there will a total of 81,114 deaths (We estimate that there will a total of 81,114 deaths (95% UI 38,242 to 162,106) from COVID-19 over the next 4 months in the US. ”

Their confidence interval is 38-162k. Intuitively it means this:
It means there is a lot of uncertainty in the number. They are pretty sure it will be between 38k and 162k. Their best guess is 81k. They say the chances of less than 38k is about 1 in 40, as is the chance it’s more than 162k.; 3/27/20, 2:01 PM
Freeman Hunt said...: "I'm getting very tired of this jerk."

But he's not wrong. Look at how many people are pointing to this and saying, "See! It's no big deal!" They didn't read.; 3/27/20, 2:01 PM
Inga said...: “Inga--Are you counting on the public health practices and knowledge of 100 years ago (1918-1919)? If so, you are a troll.”

No, this is what I’m counting on. Your comment is trollish, not mine.

“Hopefully there will be a vaccine sooner rather than later, medications that are effective, and more people who have immunity, plus the isolation that is taking place now buys time to not overburden the healthcare system and gives them time to get the ventilators and PPE that may be needed.”; 3/27/20, 2:02 PM
Two-eyed Jack said...: Trying to post this again, apologies if it comes out multiple times.

A model is just a model.

This model is very dependent upon Wuhan data being accurate and extensible to other locations, i.e. that Wuhan "social distancing" is the same as NYC "social distancing" is the same as San Diego "social distancing." Not an unreasonable start, but by no means guaranteed.

From the paper:

The value of the covariate multipliers in each type of model was assumed to closely follow the fit obtained from data from Wuhan, which is the time series to reach a stable state in the training dataset. To be specific, the generalizable information from Wuhan was the impact that social distancing had on maximum death rate and time to reach the inflection point

At this point in the epidemic, we have had to make arbitrary assumptions in our model on the equivalency between implementing 1, 2, or 3 measures – and we have implicitly assumed that implementing 3 of 4 measures will be enough to follow a trajectory similar to Wuhan – but it is plausible that it requires all 4 measures.

[I]t will take time to evaluate whether social distancing adherence is fundamentally different in the US compared to Wuhan.

Only one location has had a generalized epidemic and has currently brought new cases to 0 or near 0, namely Wuhan.

http://www.healthdata.org/sites/default/files/files/research_articles/2020/Forecasting%20Covid19%20impact%20on%20hospital%20beds_03262020_2.pdf; 3/27/20, 2:03 PM
Freeman Hunt said...: Ah, well.; 3/27/20, 2:03 PM
narciso said...: they must have actual data, the chart doesn't show it, at least ferguson was mostly rightly on h1ni, this one is more of an exercise on faith, they calculate 4,000 peak by mid may, for florida,; 3/27/20, 2:04 PM
Inga said...: “Ann should probably be even more reassured. I'm pretty sure I got Covid 19 last July. All the exact same symptoms (low-grade fever, horrible coughing for a week. Could only sleep in 1-hour intervals. I eventually lost my voice for 3 weeks, massive fluid in the lungs, etc.)

I believe it's been around far longer than is currently acknowledged, which if true means the infection rate is far lower than currently estimated.”

Last March I had the very same symptoms you describe you had. It was the H3N2 Flu.

https://www.infectioncontroltoday.com/influenza/cdc-flu-update-illness-driven-wave-h3n2-virus-activity

“According to this week’s FluView report, overall influenza activity decreased slightly but remains high, driven by a wave of H3N2 virus activity. While this week saw small declines in levels of influenza-like-illness (ILI) and the proportion of clinical laboratory specimens testing positive for flu, 46 states and Puerto Rico continue to report widespread flu activity and 30 states are still experiencing high ILI activity. Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses remain predominant for the flu season nationally, however, during the week ending March 9, influenza A(H3) viruses were reported more frequently that H1N1pdm09 viruses for the second week in a row. Also, another four flu-related pediatric deaths occurring during the 2018-2019 season were reported by CDC, bringing the total to 68 flu-related pediatric deaths this season.”; 3/27/20, 2:07 PM
Kathryn51 said...: Ken B - thanks for response. I still don't understand fully. What does "95% UI" mean?

It just seems to me that the variance is so large as to be worthless for predicting anything.

The interactive graphs re hospital beds, ICU units, etc are intereting - but no way of knowing how accurate.

I intend to take some screen shots today of different states and see how accurate they turn out to be in 5 and 10 days.; 3/27/20, 2:07 PM
Ken B said...: Michael K
You got tired of me the first time I criticized Trump. Feel free to ignore me.
Or better yet, put some of your expertise to use. I haven’t seen much of that frankly. Just politics. We have a lot of people here who don’t understand the types of testing for example. Try explaining that.; 3/27/20, 2:08 PM
Greg the class traitor said...: "Only one location has had a generalized epidemic and has currently brought new cases to 0 or near 0, namely Wuhan."

The chance that Wuhan has ACTUALLY brought their infection rate to 0 is roughly equal to the chance that I'll be the winning quarterback in the 2021 Superbowl.

If they're building their numbers off of "data" from China, their models are worthless.

This is "drunk looking for his keys by the lightpost because the light is better there" level of stupidity.; 3/27/20, 2:08 PM
Lewis Wetzel said...: The 2009-10 H1N1 flu pandemic killed 12,500 Americans.; 3/27/20, 2:12 PM
heyboom said...: COVID-19 is NOT going to overwhelm our healthcare system; 3/27/20, 2:12 PM
narciso said...: yes, that's highly doubful, they reopened the theatres in Wuhan, not for long,

I wondered why theo adhanom, was acting like a Stephen carrell character, and we know now it's because china was holding a long leash,; 3/27/20, 2:13 PM
Gusty Winds said...: The corona virus could kill a gazillion billion people. Next week I'll modify in downward a bit to ten-thousand.

And I'll be as accurate as anyone else.; 3/27/20, 2:15 PM
Ken B said...: Kathryn
A technical discussion would take us too far afield. Think of it as a betting range. They are willing to bet at 19 to 1 odds the number is in that range. (UI is uncertainty interval) khan academy on youtube is a really good resource.

It IS a wide range. That’s just a measure of how much uncertainty there is. But it’s not useless. If we were making decisions based on 81k versus 72k then it wouldn’t be much help. But some people here say 20k. One guy says 7.5k for the year not just the next 4 months. This estimate suggests those numbers are very unlikely indeed. If you have to bet, and alas we do, don’t bet on those numbers.; 3/27/20, 2:15 PM
Jersey Fled said...: We should be hearing more anecdotal evidence about the effectiveness of the malaria drug combo from US doctors right about now. That would really be telling for the trajectory.

Two more countries, Belgium and Bahrain, reporting positive results.; 3/27/20, 2:15 PM
Two-eyed Jack said...: Were I interested in posting snark rather than adopting a stance of cruel neutrality I would point out that when the authors of the UW study say
"[W]e have implicitly assumed that implementing 3 of 4 measures will be enough to follow a trajectory similar to Wuhan – but it is plausible that it requires all 4 measures."
it should be born in mind that measure 3 is welding shut people's apartment doors, and measure 4 is lying about the results.; 3/27/20, 2:18 PM
Amadeus 48 said...: Ken B has those old "Too bad you are not Canadian like me" blues.

It is an interesting song for a while, always sung in a minor key.; 3/27/20, 2:19 PM
I Have Misplaced My Pants said...: Mr. Pants just had to furlough 1500 people and tell managers and executives that they can expect a 50% salary cut effective May 1.; 3/27/20, 2:19 PM
Ken B said...: Freeman Hunt
“Ah, well”

Ever get the idea that everyone who skipped the exponential growth class came here?; 3/27/20, 2:19 PM
gadfly said...: Whatever the best term that can be applied to the University of Washington projection is, "reassuring" doesn't work for me:

The analysis, using data from governments, hospitals and other sources, predicts that the number of U.S. deaths could vary widely, ranging from as low as around 38,000 to as high as around 162,000.

In other words - "We don't have the slightest clue as to what will happen."

Warren Meyer makes this important point:

The data we have sucks, and thus any conclusions we are drawing mostly suck too. The data is worse than just being incomplete or bad -- if it was randomly distributed, we could live with that. But the lack of test kits and how we have deployed the few we have means that the data is severely biased. We are only testing people who are strongly symptomatic. If there is a normal distribution of outcomes from this disease, we are only testing on the right side of the distribution. We have no idea where the median is or how long the tail is to the left side of asymptomatic outcomes. The only thing we absolutely know about the disease is its not as deadly as [portrayed] . . . as we are missing hundreds of thousands of cases in the denominator of the mortality rates.; 3/27/20, 2:20 PM
I Have Misplaced My Pants said...: I wonder if I’ll be able to forgive those who refused to simply quarantine the at risk.; 3/27/20, 2:21 PM
narciso said...: so what value are they assuming and why?; 3/27/20, 2:25 PM
Yancey Ward said...: "Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, one by one.”

Charles Mackay, from Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds.; 3/27/20, 2:27 PM
Greg the class traitor said...: Ken B said...
Freeman Hunt
“Ah, well”

Ever get the idea that everyone who skipped the exponential growth class came here?

Feel free to respond to my numbers. Either of you.

Or would dealing with actual number just be "too hard"?

Search for "$10 trillion"; 3/27/20, 2:27 PM
n.n said...: "See! It's no big deal!"

Is that what people are saying? Or are they saying that constructing a strategy based on models and trends that are nonconforming with observation, and spreading a social contagion, may force more deaths and collateral damage. It is a big deal. It is all a big deal. We should have neither planned parenthood nor planned parent, and tamp down excess deaths in the general population, as well as mitigate collateral damage.; 3/27/20, 2:27 PM
heyboom said...: Dr. Fauci: COVID-19 likely seasonal

If true, does this mean we shut down the country every winter from now on?; 3/27/20, 2:28 PM
n.n said...: Also, viruses are notorious bigots, discriminating by race, sex, gender, and age. It's interesting that the statistics don't have diversity distributions.; 3/27/20, 2:31 PM
Nonapod said...: I'm not sure how many people still seriously believe China's numbers, but there's now a couple new stories that are leaking out that things aren't quite so rosey as the ChiComs may have you believe in terms of the Covid-19 situation. They re-opened cinemas in China only to immediately close them down (with no explanation).

And evidently there's a pretty serious riot currently going on in Jiangxi province. It seems that Jiangxi borders Hubei (Wuhan), and when the Chinese government recently lifted the Wuhan lockdown, a huge number of Wuhan residents started flooding into Jiangxi, but the Jiangxi police started blocking the bridge, which resulted in a battle between the Wuhan police and Jiangxi police.; 3/27/20, 2:32 PM
The Gipper Lives said...: The NY Times dutifully regurgitated China's lies, claiming that the USA is the Number One hotspot. To which Hillary Bollard Clinton laughed: "He did promise "America First"."

She must have stayed up 'til 3 am thinking of that joke.; 3/27/20, 2:33 PM
heyboom said...: America's Superb, Unappreciated President

A close look at what Trump has done to combat the current pandemic -- amid constant Democrat assaults.; 3/27/20, 2:34 PM
narciso said...: I think the theory is we'll develop some degree of immunity, by the next iteration, Julia ioffe, really bit hard on the china agitprop, she learned nothing from her experience with fusion sourced garbage,; 3/27/20, 2:35 PM
heyboom said...: Regardless of anything else, just the fact that there have been so few deaths even as cases rise is very reassuring to me.; 3/27/20, 2:36 PM
Michael K said...: A little update on the accuracy of China's numbers.

(Don't bother with that propaganda report from UPI -- they substantially underplay the story, probably to appease the Chinese. I link it just to confirm the citizen reporting I link below.)

Blocked from leaving their province, then Hubei citizens began getting violent, overturning the Jiangxi police's cars.

And then the Hubei police started battling the Jiangxi police.

The police are blocking people from the Wuhan province from crossing into the adjacent province. Wonder why ?; 3/27/20, 2:36 PM
Francisco D said...: If true, does this mean we shut down the country every winter from now on?

Yes. It is sort of like the snowbirds who flock down here to southern Arizona and clog up the roads.; 3/27/20, 2:36 PM
walter said...: Blogger Jersey Fled said...
We should be hearing more anecdotal evidence about the effectiveness of the malaria drug combo from US doctors right about now. That would really be telling for the trajectory.
Two more countries, Belgium and Bahrain, reporting positive results.
--
Gregory Rigano Retweeted
Sigmund Friedrich
@SigmundFriedri1
·
1h
Huge scandal again in France : yesterday's decree allowing HCQ+Z-pack against COVID19 modified today to only allow it for patients in ICU ! Big Pharma's hand obviously behind this. Raoult recommends his treatment as early as possible, the exact opposite.; 3/27/20, 2:38 PM
Michael K said...: We have a lot of people here who don’t understand the types of testing for example. Try explaining that.

Canada is calling you. I suggest you return.; 3/27/20, 2:39 PM
Fernandinande said...: The answer is 5 billion.

No, that's not "the answer" lol.

That's just a guestimate, I'm guessing it's the most sensational guestimate you could find.

Will Yellowstone Erupt Soon and Kill Us All?

"Those questions honestly make me sad, because there's so much exciting stuff about it, and it all gets buried under a metric crapton of sensationalism and misinformation, delivered near daily by various press outlets and television specials."

+++

Here's another guestimate:

"The eruption, the say, could kill as many as 90,000 people almost instantly and release a 10 ft (3-meter) layer of molten ash 1,000 miles (1,609km) from the park.

.., But not every believes a Yellowstone eruption would be as catastrophic as this.

Last year, a study by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) concluded that a volcanic eruption at Yellowstone would cover cities across the country with ash and shut down air travel and communications."

etc etc; 3/27/20, 2:39 PM
n.n said...: If true, does this mean we shut down the country every winter from now on?

No. We need to develop tests to diagnose infections, test to determine acquired immunity, identify risk classes, establish mitigation protocols (e.g. collateral damage), basically, what we do with every other disease. The poor information, products, and resources, from China and abroad have impaired the response. Spreading a social contagion will only exacerbate the risk.; 3/27/20, 2:39 PM
Rick said...: Ken B said...
Ever get the idea that everyone who skipped the exponential growth class came here?

It's already very clear this virus doesn't have exponential growth. But I do think everyone who thinks they learned what exponential growth is from last week's Vox article came here.; 3/27/20, 2:40 PM
Greg the class traitor said...: Michael K said...
The police are blocking people from the Wuhan province from crossing into the adjacent province. Wonder why ?

I'm sure it's because the Jiangxi police know that everyone in Hubei is Chinese Coronavirus free, and they don't want any of those people to come and get infected!

/sarc; 3/27/20, 2:41 PM
Big Mike said...: I’m going to have to assume that the study presumes that (1) the hydroxychloroquine plus Z-pac treatment regimen proves to be ineffective, despite early evidence both anecdotal and from controlled, but small studies, (2) no other treatment works, either, and (3) doctors learn nothing in the interim about how to treat the disease. IMAO when the dust settles 38,000 will turn out to be a ridiculous overestimate.

Except for Nevada and Michigan.; 3/27/20, 2:43 PM
Francisco D said...: @Ken B

I appreciate many of your inputs, although I think a few are somewhat clouded by emotion. That's OK. It's a pandemic.

The main issue is your lack of respect for people who are far more qualified than you in certain areas. For example, Michael K has significant educational and experiential advantages over you when it comes to the medical field.

If you want people to read your posts, keep that in mind.; 3/27/20, 2:43 PM
Sebastian said...: chuck (good chuck): "And what would the estimate be if no measures were taken?"

The point of the anti-panic faction was not to advocate "no measures," but that shutting down much of the economy and wasting trillions was a gross overreaction, when targeted quarantines and behavioral adjustment could prevent spikes in hospital use and fatalities at far lower cost, while building up necessary immunity among young and healthy people.

I know you didn't mean it that way, and also don't mean to go all snarky at you, but this will part of the backtracking discourse: "what if we hadn't." I'll add it to "real calculation."; 3/27/20, 2:44 PM
SMURF said...: Just a hypothetical. What if the Wu flu peters out in May of so and someone does a count of the combined death toll from corona virus and seasonal flu. And it turns out to be similar to the toll in a bad flu year like 2017. Someone is going to ask . . . EIGHT $ TRILLION for a bad flu ? People should be hanging from lamp posts if that happens .; 3/27/20, 2:45 PM
Drago said...: Nonapod: "I'm not sure how many people still seriously believe China's numbers,...."

A surprisingly large number of usual suspect Althouse posters do.; 3/27/20, 2:48 PM
Big Mike said...: Just a quick thought regarding data from Wuhan. If Xi says he wants to see the number of new cases go down. Amazingly the number of reported new cases goes to zero. About par for communist country.; 3/27/20, 2:48 PM
Drago said...: SMURF: "Just a hypothetical. What if the Wu flu peters out in May of so and someone does a count of the combined death toll from corona virus and seasonal flu. And it turns out to be similar to the toll in a bad flu year like 2017."

Then certain parties will claim their actions saved about 11 million lives.; 3/27/20, 2:49 PM
narciso said...: this is a recipe for warlordism, in the future, who would hold that title, paul singer suggests there would a directorate of military officials, somewhat like the control junta
did in 30s japan,; 3/27/20, 2:49 PM
Leland said...: A little bit of math... The US population is roughly 335 million. 81,000 deaths would put our deaths per million (dpm) count about 240 (rounding a bit). Currently, our dpm is 4. Italy currently is 151 and next highest Spain is 106. Only San Marino is near UWash estimates at a dpm 619. If you exclude the top 3 dpms, the next highest is Andorra at 39. However, as deaths are increasing everywhere, dpm will only go up (Unless you believe China at dpm 2 and no new cases). Dpm isn't a great metric, but it is what we have with limited numbers of resolved cases. Still 240 seems high with an expected peak by mid April.; 3/27/20, 2:54 PM
Ken B said...: Francisco D
Thank you.
As it happens I think I just acknowledged Michael K's expertise. I lament he makes so little use of it here.
I would ask you to look around here. Who is it who airily dismiss Even the idea of expertise in epidemics and virology. I think you will find it’s the denialists.; 3/27/20, 2:55 PM
Fernandinande said...: It will be extremely high, and yet you will probably not be panicking.

Another nice LOL, thank you.

No panic for me because I ignore MSM headlines and most of their attempts at science reports; they're sensationalized garbage.

The USGS rates Yellowstone as the 21st most dangerous volcano (or system) in the US.

Why aren't you panicking over the other 20? Because you don't know what they are?; 3/27/20, 2:55 PM
Darkisland said...: .

The scare mongering (I'm looking at you, Ann. Yellowstone and 5bn.yeah.so?) really pisses me off. Its even worse on the local news. My wife is convinced that she is going to die of wuhan flu. She won't even go outside the house to work in her garden for fear of it. Our nearest neighbor is 150 feet or so away and we have a constant breeze off the ocean.

I seriously worry she is more likely to worry herself into some illness, real or imagined, than to be harmed by kung flu.

I wish all the fear mongers, on tv especially, would just fuck the fuck off.

Here it doesn't bother me so much. I just think you are silly and my wife doesn't see it.

This has been posted before by several of us but bears repeating:

the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza

Dr Fauci new england hournal of medicine

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387

John Henry; 3/27/20, 2:55 PM
bagoh20 said...: It serves no purpose to throw out numbers that are not realistic and then multiply them together to make even more fantastic numbers. That's not helping.

Natural immunity and vaccination will stop the virus before it gets anywhere close to every single American getting it. The fatality rate will not be close to 3%. It isn't now and more testing is just going to make it smaller, not to mention treatments to cure or reduce it's fatality. For the sake of those prone to hysteria, lets stay within the realm of real possibilities.

Full shutdowns remove lots of perfectly safe people from the economy for no good reason. That is unnecessary harm. We should all be against hurting people for no reason.; 3/27/20, 2:57 PM
I Callahan said...: How is this "reassuring"? Maybe for retired professors and their spouses, but the rest of us will be quarantined and out of work until June. If you think that's a fair trade-off, then you can count me as one of those "unforgivable" types. Because by then, a lot more than 80,000 peoples' lives will have been ruined.; 3/27/20, 3:00 PM
bagoh20 said...: Recovered cases exceeded deaths yesterday for the first time, and by the end of the day today the recovered will have doubled the deaths just 24 hours later. Recoveries are what's growing exponential.; 3/27/20, 3:00 PM
Drago said...: Ken B: " I think you will find it’s the denialists."

Perhaps Ken B will read this again:

n.n:
"See! It's no big deal!"

"Is that what people are saying? Or are they saying that constructing a strategy based on models and trends that are nonconforming with observation, and spreading a social contagion, may force more deaths and collateral damage. It is a big deal. It is all a big deal. We should have neither planned parenthood nor planned parent, and tamp down excess deaths in the general population, as well as mitigate collateral damage."
3/27/20, 2:27 PM; 3/27/20, 3:01 PM
Leland said...: If every single American caught the Chinese Coronavirus

Then it will have done something in the US it hasn't managed to do anywhere else; break the 20% infection rate.; 3/27/20, 3:01 PM
Ken B said...: Greg tct
Which numbers? 10-20 k total deaths? I think it a very unrealistic number. You gave no analysis, so nor will I. Time will tell.
I agree Chinese numbers cannot be trusted. I don’t believe they have it contained.
I think US infections are showing exponential growth. The graphs are available online.; 3/27/20, 3:02 PM
Drago said...: bagoh20: "It serves no purpose to throw out numbers that are not realistic and then multiply them together to make even more fantastic numbers. That's not helping."

Actually, it serves many purposes.

It serves the democrats purposes. It serves the ChiCom's purposes. It serves the media's purposes.; 3/27/20, 3:02 PM
Yancey Ward said...: The most effective way to reduce the deaths that is actually the easiest to do is to keep the virus out of hospitals and nursing homes. You can tell which states/localities have failed in this so far- I am looking at you, New York City, New Jersey, Louisiana, and probably Atlanta, Georgia and Detroit, Michigan.

This idea that you can segregate infectious patients in regular hospitals along with every other patient is foolhardy at best, and criminally negligent at worse. This isn't a disease for which medical staff themselves can be vaccinated- the COVID-19 patients need to be segregate into entirely different buildings with staff dedicated to them solely (the latter measure until you can vaccinate the staff). Why the state departments of health didn't do this immediately is just incompetence. Seriously, not even the CDC made this sort of mistake when they brought home some of the cruise ship patients (they made others, but not ones as catastrophic).; 3/27/20, 3:05 PM
narciso said...: so what's the r value at day one, and the one at day 100, what's the exponent they are employing, do we have to order a copy of the home game to find out?; 3/27/20, 3:06 PM
I Callahan said...: Ken B,

I think US infections are showing exponential growth.

Why is this even a consideration? What matters is how many of those "infections" are serious, and how many are not. This has been repeated ad infinitum: the more tests you do, the more "infections" you're going to find.; 3/27/20, 3:06 PM
Fernandinande said...: About par for communist country.

China is doing so well that their chocolate ration has been raised to twenty grams a week - nearly three grams per day!; 3/27/20, 3:09 PM
Drago said...: I Callahan: "Why is this even a consideration? What matters is how many of those "infections" are serious, and how many are not. This has been repeated ad infinitum: the more tests you do, the more "infections" you're going to find."

Yes, but recognition of that reduces the opportunity to virtue signal...exponentially.; 3/27/20, 3:09 PM
narciso said...: Indeed Yancey, why did they didn't do that, in the case of northern Washington, as a starter, why they didn't do contact tracing, of the first block of cases, it's like every agency is structured against developing proper protocols, from the wto to the cdc,; 3/27/20, 3:10 PM
Drago said...: narciso: "so what's the r value at day one, and the one at day 100, what's the exponent they are employing, do we have to order a copy of the home game to find out?"

Don't even bother.

Confidence intervals on made up numbers are just as unreliable as anything else.; 3/27/20, 3:10 PM
Darkisland said...: As for when the wuhan flu panic is over in the US? I'm sticking with April 7.

The money dries up April 6.

They might try to keep it going to Easter for the symbolism but that would be the latest

Sir John of the Zika

you all remember the billions dead from Zika, right?; 3/27/20, 3:10 PM
Yancey Ward said...: "the rest of us will be quarantined and out of work until June."

You can get off your lazy ass and take a job delivering groceries and goods to the retired shut-ins.

Do I need a sarcasm tag?; 3/27/20, 3:11 PM
Ken B said...: I Callahan
Are you telling me you think the R0 is unimportant? Because it sounds that way.
And why scare quotes on infections?; 3/27/20, 3:11 PM
Drago said...: narciso: "Indeed Yancey, why did they didn't do that, in the case of northern Washington, as a starter, why they didn't do contact tracing, of the first block of cases, it's like every agency is structured against developing proper protocols, from the wto to the cdc,"

These are illegal questions.

Besides, the only acceptable answer is: Trump didn't let them.; 3/27/20, 3:11 PM
Michael K said...: The main issue is your lack of respect for people who are far more qualified than you in certain areas. For example, Michael K has significant educational and experiential advantages over you when it comes to the medical field.

I tend to post comments on medical topics like this at Chicagoboyz and Ricochet because this blog is so infested with politics. The nastiness is another reason. Several commenters, and KenB seems to be one of them, are always hostile to any comment I post.

I come here for entertainment mostly.; 3/27/20, 3:13 PM
Drago said...: Michael K: "I tend to post comments on medical topics like this at Chicagoboyz and Ricochet because this blog is so infested with politics. The nastiness is another reason. Several commenters, and KenB seems to be one of them, are always hostile to any comment I post."

Well, you, as many others did as well, refused to simply accept as Revealed Truth the estimates of eleventy kajillion dead bodies lying in the streets of America due to this "Captain Tripps" virus.

So I guess you, and the rest of us, deserve what we get.; 3/27/20, 3:15 PM
Drago said...: The good news is that if you don't like today's WAGuestimates numbers, the WAGuestimators have others!; 3/27/20, 3:16 PM
Yancey Ward said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; 3/27/20, 3:16 PM
Achilles said...: This is reassuring.
posted by Ann Althouse at 1:04 PM on Mar 27, 2020

Group A lied to Ann.

Group B pointed out Ann was lied to.

Ann got mad at Group B.

This is a pattern in history.; 3/27/20, 3:16 PM
Yancey Ward said...: "why they didn't do contact tracing, of the first block of cases"

On contact tracing:

This only works if you actually catch the first block of cases. If you don't, then it is quickly revealed that you are getting a lot of infections that you can't trace back to the block you are investigating. This is what was shown pretty quickly in Washington- once they started testing outside the trace lines, they kept finding COVID-19 sufferers. At that point, they just turned to contact tracing for all the victims, but this runs into an obvious problem- once you get to 20-50 unique nodes, there are simply aren't enough people to do the phoning and home visits. Beyond that point, you are dependent on the infectee to do his own contacts.; 3/27/20, 3:16 PM
narciso said...: thanks for the explanation, yancey, there is so much to this story, that is a black box,; 3/27/20, 3:20 PM
Inga said...: “My wife is convinced that she is going to die of wuhan flu. She won't even go outside the house to work in her garden for fear of it. Our nearest neighbor is 150 feet or so away and we have a constant breeze off the ocean.”

Tell your silly wife that Althouse goes out walking or jogging everyday.; 3/27/20, 3:20 PM
Browndog said...: Patient Zero of the shut down virus, Utah Jazz center Rudy Gobert, is now clear of the corona virus, and given a clean bill of health according to the Utah Dept. of Health.

When Gobert tested positive, the NBA postponed the basketball game minutes before tip-off, which started an avalanche of postponed games that night, followed by the NBA postponing the entire basketball season--all within 2 hours.

All professional sports followed suit days later.

Rudy Gobert tested positive for corona virus on March 14.; 3/27/20, 3:22 PM
toxdoc said...: Robother...They do still test for flu and many other respiratory diseases. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm

Except for New York, the 5-10% positive COVID-19 tests are among all folks presenting with "flu-like symptoms" so the other 90+% are just all the other respiratory ailments.

I know several folks who had positive flu tests this year; 3/27/20, 3:22 PM
Guildofcannonballs said...: "... simply explain why democrat governors would, for political OrangeManBad reasons, literally outlaw treatments that are being used elsewhere throughout the nation and the world."

Local news report with a pregnant women who can't use anything else says: Current users fear running out because shady docs and pharmacists are keeping the drugs for themselves without knowing how effective they will be if used outside of the context for which they were originally in stock such as lupus.; 3/27/20, 3:23 PM
Guildofcannonballs said...: https://kdvr.com/news/coronavirus/lupus-patients-nervous-over-run-on-trump-dubbed-game-changer-covid-19-drugs/; 3/27/20, 3:26 PM
Drago said...: Guild: "Local news report with a pregnant women who can't use anything else says: Current users fear running out because shady docs and pharmacists are keeping the drugs for themselves without knowing how effective they will be if used outside of the context for which they were originally in stock such as lupus."

That doesn't address why a governor would outlaw the use of drugs for virus treatment given doctors across the nation and the globe are prescribing those drugs for virus treatment.

If people are hoarding, address that.
If more of the drugs need to be produced, that is already being addressed.

Your other point doesn't make sense. Doctors are hoarding the drugs for their own use because they don't know if they will be effective?

Then why are they hoarding them?

And if there is an "if" regarding effectiveness, shouldn't that decision be left up to the doctors and their patients and not the governor?; 3/27/20, 3:29 PM
Ken B said...: Covid USA
Deaths 1543, cases 100,390
New York State 5833 new cases in one day.
As of right now according to world o meters.; 3/27/20, 3:30 PM
Ignatius Acton Chesterton OCD said...: Count on 80,000 being revised down.

In a fight with an invisible enemy, we must set a success target and make measurable progress toward realizing it. “Flattening the curve” will not do.

The numbers will set us free, not the prognostications of amateur actuaries trying to realize their five minutes of fame.

It’s the testing, stupid.

And we need to stop destroying our economy based on opinion and speculation. We have to live.

This is not the Bubonic Plague. Stop the panic.; 3/27/20, 3:30 PM
Yancey Ward said...: R0 is certainly below one for most of the geographic area of the US by this point. It might be greater than one in the more crowded cities, but I suspect even there that it is getting close to being under one. Right now, I suspect most of the transmission at this moment is from patient to doctor/nurse/orderlie to patient; and from family member to family member.

By next week, you will probably start to find the percentages for positive tests start declining across the board in all the states- you actually see this in a lot of the states if you follow the testing numbers closely- a lot of them have started fall in the more rural ones. My own state was, last weekend at about 11% positive, but the last week it has fallen to just under 8%. At this rate, the positives in Tennessee will about 4% by next Friday.; 3/27/20, 3:30 PM
Achilles said...: SMURF said...
Just a hypothetical. What if the Wu flu peters out in May of so and someone does a count of the combined death toll from corona virus and seasonal flu. And it turns out to be similar to the toll in a bad flu year like 2017. Someone is going to ask . . . EIGHT $ TRILLION for a bad flu ? People should be hanging from lamp posts if that happens .

More like April.

The thing that needs to be kept in mind is there are 3 groups of people here.

Group A are the people who were lied to. Ann, Meade, Ken B.

Group B have been pointing out to Group A they were deceived.

Group C are the people that have been lying and deceiving. The Chicoms. The Media. Democrats.

Group A has been nasty and ridiculous to Group B. But at some point Group A and Group B need to put these things aside and turn to the real issue here.

The Chicoms.

The Media.

The Democrats.; 3/27/20, 3:31 PM
Kyjo said...: You know what’s growing exponentially, even faster than infections and deaths from COVID-19?

Unemployment.

I know, it’s crass and insensitive even to bring it up.; 3/27/20, 3:31 PM
Left Bank of the Charles said...: "This is reassuring."

38,000 to 162,000 deaths between now and the end of July is not reassuring, that's 300 to 1300 deaths per day. But if we are down to 10 deaths a day by the beginning of June, that's 500 to 2400 deaths per day.; 3/27/20, 3:31 PM
rehajm said...: As for when the wuhan flu panic is over in the US? I'm sticking with April 7.

The more cynical amongst us suspect Democrats will, in a few days, suddenly shift from criticizing Trump for calling off isolation too soon to criticizing Trump for keepng people isolated too long.

This whole virus meme isn't helping their November one bit.; 3/27/20, 3:32 PM
Yancey Ward said...: And I note this is for total tests in Tennessee. All of the tests run this week were well under 5%.; 3/27/20, 3:33 PM
Achilles said...: Ken B said...
Covid USA
Deaths 1543, cases 100,390
New York State 5833 new cases in one day.
As of right now according to world o meters.

The new cases will correlate closely to new tests.

The number of deaths will track the actual infection rate.

r0 was high and this started months ago.

The death rate was always lower than advertised and was very selective. New deaths will not keep pace with new cases.; 3/27/20, 3:35 PM
Browndog said...: I live in Clare County, Michigan.

I went to our closest grocery store in a failed attempt to find milk 12 miles away. I noticed a small crowd gathered by the small deli, sounded like a heated conversation.

I found out why a sheriff cruiser was eye-balling me hard when he passed me. They are pulling people over and issuing them $500 tickets for violating the governors stay at home order. Apparently this is being done under the direction of the county prosecutor.

Get this- only a written notice from your employer allowing you to be out will excuse you from a ticket. Going to the grocery store is "not to be believed" and a ticket will be issued.

I've been out of my fucking mind all day.; 3/27/20, 3:39 PM
Sebastian said...: "And it turns out to be similar to the toll in a bad flu year like 2017. Someone is going to ask . . . EIGHT $ TRILLION for a bad flu ? People should be hanging from lamp posts if that happens."

Look, it may be worse than a bad flu. The spikes of ICU cases may be worse. No one is gloating over "only" 80K excess deaths. We'll see what happens.

But if it is at all close to a bad flu, and if relatively few under 40 are affected, as seems increasingly likely, some people younger than the older-skewing commentators on this blog that have been urging sanity are going to be pretty upset, regardless of the "we had real calculations" or "what if we hadn't ruined the economy" backtracking--about the missed graduations and commencements, the missed seasons and meets and games and internships, the lost jobs and incomes, the depression and anxiety, not to mention the prospect of higher taxes that their generation will have to pay, both to make up for the trillion-dollar spending and to replenish the devastated state pension funds. Lampposts will come to mind.

Perhaps seniors will pitch in by giving up a portion of their Social Security and government pensions, just as a gesture to the younger generations. It would be nice. It would "help."; 3/27/20, 3:41 PM
Yancey Ward said...: By the way, the US doubled the number of tests for COVID-19 run yesterday from the previous day.; 3/27/20, 3:42 PM
exiledonmainstreet, green-eyed devil said...: Derbyshire Police
@DerbysPolice
· Mar 26
Despite posts yesterday highlighting issues of people still visiting the #PeakDistrict despite government guidance, the message is still not getting through. @DerPolDroneUnit have been out at beauty spots across the county, and this footage was captured at #CurbarEdge last night."

So, it's fine to go walking in cities, and the London Tube is packed because they've cut back on trains, but if you get in your car to take a hike in the countryside, police will use drones to track you down and arrest you.

Does that make any sense at all?

The British police are far more zealous about tracking down hikers in remote parts of the country than they were uncovering Muslims who were raping and trafficking children.; 3/27/20, 3:42 PM
Yancey Ward said...: Here is the data in a graph.; 3/27/20, 3:43 PM
I Callahan said...: The more cynical amongst us suspect Democrats will, in a few days, suddenly shift from criticizing Trump for calling off isolation too soon to criticizing Trump for keepng people isolated too long.

I could actually live with this if we re-started the economy again...; 3/27/20, 3:46 PM
Ken B said...: Worldometers has good graphs. They show very clear exponential growth. Some of the graphs can be displayed with a logarithmic y axis. They show a straight line.; 3/27/20, 3:47 PM
Birkel said...: I take the under.; 3/27/20, 3:47 PM
Ignatius Acton Chesterton OCD said...: I love the leap some people make when they make skeptics into “denialists.” As though questioning assumptions is denial, elevated to being a core philosophy... an ism.

Most of the greatest feats in human history were accomplished by skeptics who thought the herd was mad.

Questioning articles of faith is not denial. It’s being inquisitive. Is the remedy efficient?

If I am a “denialist” then you are the mindless, hectoring evangelist of uber-educated speculation and quackery.

Find another hobby.; 3/27/20, 3:47 PM
JAORE said...: "It's already very clear this virus doesn't have exponential growth."

Just heard a Washington State Health official say the old,If one infects two,and two infect four and four.... we'll have a (unremembered huge number) of seriously ill people in Washington.

So not clear to those without that math bump or those with an agenda.; 3/27/20, 3:47 PM
I Callahan said...: Yancey - did the actual amount of positives increase 50% from yesterday to today? Just wondering...; 3/27/20, 3:49 PM
I Have Misplaced My Pants said...: Confidential to MayBee: I love you too. You're the best commenter here.; 3/27/20, 3:50 PM
Left Bank of the Charles said...: "People should be hanging from lamp posts"

As Group C includes President Trump, is Group B planning to hang him?

If the coronavirus peters out in the U.S., Group C will be able to point to the death toll in countries like Italy and Spain as to what might have happened in the United States if they hadn't acted. I think the magic number is 10,000 deaths. If we succeed in keeping the number below that, Trump can claim victory over the coronavirus, and deserve to. If it's 10,000 to 50,000, it won't be a victory but Trump can write it off as a very bad flu season. Above that, there will be other leaders like Merkel in Germany that will have done visibly better than Trump.; 3/27/20, 3:51 PM
narciso said...: but the interval is longer, from 2 to 4.7 if I read that right, how many are actually infecting, he works for the health department?; 3/27/20, 3:53 PM
I Have Misplaced My Pants said...: And I'm sorry your state has lost its everlovin mind. So far Texas a whole is pretty sane, and while we are under a county SAH order, it was carefully drafted and contains many commonsense exceptions.; 3/27/20, 3:53 PM
rhhardin said...: The models you hear about selected for click bait.; 3/27/20, 3:54 PM
narciso said...: meanwhile, James comey crawls out from under his rock, and commits category error,; 3/27/20, 3:55 PM
Achilles said...: Left Bank of the Charles said...
"People should be hanging from lamp posts"

As Group C includes President Trump, is Group B planning to hang him?

We see you Left Bank.

We know what you all were trying to accomplish with this. We know who you are working with and who is on your team.

Team open borders globalist is heading for a reckoning.; 3/27/20, 3:56 PM
Darkisland said...: 3/27/20, 3:20 PM

Inga said...

"Tell your silly wife that Althouse goes out walking or jogging everyday."

You're not helping your case, Inga. You make it sound like Ann doesn't beleive her own fearmongering.

Are you sayying that Ann is lying to us?

I'm not, I believe she actually believes the fearmongering.

John Henry; 3/27/20, 3:56 PM
rhhardin said...: If one infects two,and two infect four and four....

Some pillow talk long ago, mentioning that if you work reducing raw radar tapes you learn all the powers of two just by osmosis.

gf: what's 2 to the 19th?

me: 524288

gf: (hits); 3/27/20, 4:00 PM
Guildofcannonballs said...: I just saw the news report and am letting you know their rationale. I don't know if the lady pushing the ban in the article or the Colorado Pharmacists Association have any data or are just panicking about running out of drugs (because of crooked doctors) but that seems to be their fear.; 3/27/20, 4:00 PM
Achilles said...: Ken B said...
Worldometers has good graphs. They show very clear exponential growth. Some of the graphs can be displayed with a logarithmic y axis. They show a straight line.

Lies with statistics.

If you put in the real start date and the real deaths from China those graphs get real flat real fast. Millions of people were infected in China. They had many thousands of deaths.

My guess is random sampling will show at least hundreds of thousands of people in the US have already been infected with COVID-19. More died that are being reported.; 3/27/20, 4:00 PM
Ken B said...: “ I take the under.”

What are you willing to bet, other than other people’s lives? I suggest a wager. You give a number, and a date that you take under. Post it. Then we can discuss odds and amounts. My idea is something like a few bucks to be donated by the loser to a charity chosen by the winner.; 3/27/20, 4:03 PM
Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...: Blogger Achilles said...
Lies with statistics.
If you put in the real start date and the real deaths from China those graphs get real flat real fast.

Two questions:

1. How would changing the start date affect the slope of a log linear plot?

2. How would including the real deaths from China affect a plot of US infections?; 3/27/20, 4:05 PM
Ken B said...: ARM
or US deaths, which is a straight line on the logarithmic graph.

Several have posited that the growth is purely the result of a growth in tests given. That might be plausible if the only exponential growth was in positive tests, and not other measures of infection. But the other measures show it too. Deaths do.; 3/27/20, 4:10 PM
virgil xenophon said...: heyboom@2:34PM/

FrontpageMag article pretty much covers the waterfront doesn't it?; 3/27/20, 4:11 PM
Ken B said...: “ How would changing the start date affect the slope of a log linear plot?”

If you start in 1500 it’s flat for 519 years. Then an uptick which might just be random.; 3/27/20, 4:12 PM
Shouting Thomas said...: ARM, you fraud, will you please quit pretending you have the slightest training or education in epidemiology?

Or logic.

You’re lying.; 3/27/20, 4:12 PM
Spiros said...: The more dramatic the model's conclusion, the less likely it is to be true. I think an alarmed and sensitized public is so useful to scientists and regulators, that these people can't resist the urge to exaggerate. By a lot. "Sea levels will rise 100 meters!!!" "You're going to get cancer if you eat bacon."; 3/27/20, 4:13 PM
Inga said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; 3/27/20, 4:14 PM
Shouting Thomas said...: What did/do you do for a living, ARM?

Come on. Tell us.

For a few days now, you’ve been tossing around terms like “data” and “linear plot” as if you actually know what those terms mean.

I suspect you’re just a bald faced liar.; 3/27/20, 4:16 PM
Inga said...: “You make it sound like Ann doesn't beleive her own fearmongering.”

I don’t think she is fear mongering. Social isolation is just that, it’s not isolating oneself from fresh air, sunshine, and being out in nature.

“Are you sayying that Ann is lying to us?”

No.

“I'm not, I believe she actually believes the fearmongering.”

Again, it’s not fearmongering, that’s merely your opinion, they’re like noses, we all have one.; 3/27/20, 4:18 PM
Achilles said...: Ken B said...
“ I take the under.”

What are you willing to bet, other than other people’s lives? I suggest a wager. You give a number, and a date that you take under. Post it. Then we can discuss odds and amounts. My idea is something like a few bucks to be donated by the loser to a charity chosen by the winner.

10,000 people US.

100,000 people in the world including the +30000/40000 as the real death count in China.

June 1st.

I posted this a week ago.; 3/27/20, 4:19 PM
Shouting Thomas said...: Some opinions, like yours, Inga, can always be written off as lies.

You’re an inveterate pathological liar.

How do you still show your face around here? You got tossed off, remember, for lying for months that Trump said Nazis are “nice people.”

You don’t think we remember?

I think you’re probably lying about ever being a nurse. I suspect that the sob stories you’ve come up with are lies. I think everything that you’ve presented on this blog is a complete lie.; 3/27/20, 4:21 PM
Achilles said...: Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...
Blogger Achilles said...
Lies with statistics.
If you put in the real start date and the real deaths from China those graphs get real flat real fast.

Two questions:

1. How would changing the start date affect the slope of a log linear plot?

2. How would including the real deaths from China affect a plot of US infections?

Are you serious or joking?

I know you are limited but come on.; 3/27/20, 4:22 PM
Inga said...: Oh blah blah blah Shouting Tongue. You just make me laugh.; 3/27/20, 4:23 PM
effinayright said...: Ken B said...
“
Maybe someone who understands statistical analysis can explain this statement: "We estimate that there will a total of 81,114 deaths (We estimate that there will a total of 81,114 deaths (95% UI 38,242 to 162,106) from COVID-19 over the next 4 months in the US. ”

Their confidence interval is 38-162k. Intuitively it means this:
It means there is a lot of uncertainty in the number. They are pretty sure it will be between 38k and 162k. Their best guess is 81k. They say the chances of less than 38k is about 1 in 40, as is the chance it’s more than 162k.
*************

Anyone with a technical education will guffaw at the five-significant-digit accuracy of such "estimates" coupled with such a wide confidence interval.

With crap like that, they are obviously just pulling numbers out of the air.; 3/27/20, 4:26 PM
Drago said...: Inga: "Oh blah blah blah Shouting Tongue. You just make me laugh."

Speaking of making people laugh, tell us more about Carter Page being a russian spy and Trump/Russia collusion and Brett Kavanaugh being a rapist.

There are lots and lots more of course, but I'm time limited.; 3/27/20, 4:29 PM
walter said...: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/24/starbucks-ceo-says-us-experiencing-similar-coronavirus-path-to-china.html

Johnson said Starbucks’ experience in China is very much informing its response to the global pandemic in other markets.

“We’ve have been dealing with COVID-19 for nine weeks now in China and throughout that entire nine-week journey we have learned the playbook and the curve in terms of when you shut down what happens to consumer behavior and as you go through this what happens when you open stores,” he said.

Starbucks has reopened around 95% of the stores it temporarily shuttered in China in response to COVID-19′s spread, Johnson said Tuesday. It took about 45 to 60 days before stores started to reopen, Johnson said.

On Monday, in particular, Johnson said Starbucks opened another “four or five” stores in Wuhan, the Chinese city where the coronavirus outbreak is believed to have originated.

“Those stores are opening in safe protocols and we’re going slow to make sure this is happening, but the recovery is unfolding in China,” Johnson said. “And that is what gives us confidence that we know how to manage through this.”; 3/27/20, 4:31 PM
Drago said...: Wholelotta: "Anyone with a technical education will guffaw at the five-significant-digit accuracy of such "estimates" coupled with such a wide confidence interval.

With crap like that, they are obviously just pulling numbers out of the air."

Oh, its better than that.

Ken B was in fine form talking about how others must have missed the exponential growth class when back in school.

The smug and laughable unearned and completely unwarranted sense of superiority is rivaled only by Inga's.; 3/27/20, 4:31 PM
Shouting Thomas said...: I can only think of two people Althouse has banned, one permanently and one temporarily.

You’re one of them, Inga.

Really, don’t you have any shame? What are you doing still coming around here?; 3/27/20, 4:34 PM
Tomcc said...: Browndog @ 3:39: That's the most disturbing thing I've heard all day. I would hope that law enforcement folks would be reluctant to enforce such bullshit decrees. It ain't paranoia if they really are out to get you.
I made a trip to the store this afternoon; still no paper products. I asked a cashier and she told me that they stock overnight and open at 7:00 a.m. People start lining up at 6:00.
Panic buying is still a thing.; 3/27/20, 4:36 PM
narciso said...: oh and fox formerly let Trish regan go, because independent minds, can be doubleunplusgood,; 3/27/20, 4:40 PM
Inga said...: “I made a trip to the store this afternoon; still no paper products. I asked a cashier and she told me that they stock overnight and open at 7:00 a.m. People start lining up at 6:00.
Panic buying is still a thing.”

I have an Instacart grocery delivery coming tomorrow. This is the first time they actually listed TP as being available. They had Kleenex and napkins too, however if they actually show up with the order I’ll be surprised. I read that Instacart shoppers are going on strike on Monday. If Instacart is smart, they give them what they want.

Instacart’s Gig Workers Are Planning a Massive, Nationwide Strike; 3/27/20, 4:45 PM