Althouse: Sunrise, 6:54.

March 31, 2020

Sunrise, 6:54.

E425F7DC-69D3-42F7-BE51-9ECC5AB8BA1D_1_201_a

62 comments:

MadisonMan said...: I feel increasing concern about local small businesses that remain shuttered. I don't think Gov. Evers has a clue.
On the other hand -- my coffee shop of choice is reopening, as long as you order online (I did) -- you can pick up your order at the coffee shop, starting tomorrow. I miss that daily routine. This change brings me hope that some businesses can adapt -- but if you have to visit in person, as I've seen in comments here, well...; 3/31/20, 12:15 PM
Mike Sylwester said...: California would have bought more ventilators, but building a high-speed train was more important.; 3/31/20, 12:18 PM
narciso said...: evers doesn't have a clue, but they stole enough votes in Milwaukee and elsewhere, to put this cadaverous William hickey clone in the state house,; 3/31/20, 12:30 PM
Bay Area Guy said...: "I feel increasing concern about local small businesses that remain shuttered. "

Valid concern. Also, the big boys are gonna be hurting too. The Airlines just asked for a $50 Billion dollar govt bailout..
There's not enough billion dollar bailouts to go around.

Smart folks need to put their thinking caps on.; 3/31/20, 12:34 PM
YoungHegelian said...: @BAG,

Smart folks need to put their thinking caps on.

I guess we're just thoroughly effed, then...?; 3/31/20, 12:36 PM
Bay Area Guy said...: @YH,

I guess we're just thoroughly effed, then...?

heh - I hope not!

I actually have to do some "real life" things today, so I wanna part (just for the day) with one simple, non-argumentative point:

There's a minority opinion held by some really impressive scientists/doctors/thinkers/money guys who say this:

The risk of the harm caused by the virus is relatively low, but the risk of harm caused by the potential economic collapse of locking down millions of healthy workers is very high.

Just food for thought. Suggest folks consider it, evaluate it, not simply dismiss or ignore it.; 3/31/20, 12:42 PM
MadisonMan said...: Smart folks need to put their thinking caps on.

Top. Men. (Obvious Link); 3/31/20, 12:46 PM
wild chicken said...: Do you literally have to *stay inside* in Wisconsin?

Gov Bullock lets us go outside for our exercise. I thought most stay-home orders did.; 3/31/20, 12:47 PM
narciso said...: there are so many blank pages, omitted or misrepresented bits of data, some dismiss dr. raoult's studies because it's not randomized doubleblind in triplicate, we would still have rabies, smallpox and polio, if that was the standard today,; 3/31/20, 12:48 PM
narciso said...: the younger Cuomo, apparently tested positive, doubtless all that shoe leather he's swallowed,; 3/31/20, 12:50 PM
Achilles said...: I hope this event inoculates our society against this sort of stupidity.

The real tragedy of this is that next time if there is a real pandemic and there actually is the chance that millions of people die many people will look back on this and conclude that the media and the WHO and China are just lying to us again.

There is a real cost to crying wolf.; 3/31/20, 1:03 PM
MayBee said...: wild chicken- I know Chicago just went on stay inside except to get food lockdown.

In my state, you are allowed to be outside but not play contact sports or go on golf courses or playgrounds.; 3/31/20, 1:05 PM
Ann Althouse said...: “ Do you literally have to *stay inside* in Wisconsin?”

No. You can go out and walk or run or bike. You just need to stay 6 feet away from people who aren’t in your home group.

There are lots of people out exercising.

Yesterday when we took a long walk we saw kids roller skating and on scooters. We saw parents and children chalking the sidewalk. We saw neighbors talking to each other from opposite sides of the street. It’s very nice. Heartening.

In normal times I have often noticed that people don’t get outside like they used to years ago. Especially young people. But this strange experience seems to be getting adults out with their kids and lots of adult, alone or in pairs, out running and walking.

People are friendly, saying hi, because we all know we’re in this together.; 3/31/20, 1:06 PM
Whiskeybum said...: But this strange experience seems to be getting adults out with their kids and lots of adult, alone or in pairs, out...

take(ing) a stupid little fucking afternoon stroll; 3/31/20, 1:22 PM
Inga said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; 3/31/20, 1:24 PM
Inga said...: This is good news.

“Fauci: Mask-wearing recommendation under 'very serious consideration'”

While masks are in short supply, I still think this is a good development. I’ve been sewing masks for over a week and have kept some for friends and family. The rest I’ve donated to 3 different area nursing homes. The masks aren’t great protection, but they are better than nothing and will remind people not to touch their faces. Plus if one is infected and asymptomatic, a mask protects others. I predict that even people who don’t know how to sew, will learn. Also if you wear glasses or put on goggles or sunglasses you also have a bit more protection when you have to go shopping in person.; 3/31/20, 1:27 PM
Inga said...: Oh, another positive development, Instacart gave its shoppers what they were asking for, so the strike is off. I hope that other grocery store and other essential business employees get better pay and more appreciation.; 3/31/20, 1:30 PM
Mike (MJB Wolf) said...: The potential costs of this unprecedented economic shutdown:

1. A 20% rise in unemployment is in the range of expected results of this "pause" according to the SecTreasury Mnuchin; others say 30%. either would be devastating.
2. 28,797 more deaths from drug overdoses based on 2017 NBR paper that found 3.6% increase on such ODs for each 1% rise in unemployment.
3. Unemployment is strongly associated with suicide in several studies, and unemployed people are 50% more likely to be a homicide victim than an employed person.
4. A 1% change in unemployment will increase the property crime rate by 71.1 per 100,000 people and the violent crime rate by 31.9 per 100,000 people.

Again the reasonable predictions are between 16% and 30% unemployment after virus, AV. Maybe when debating the super-precise numbers our panic cheerleaders use here, we can also consider the human cost of this great experiment with allegedly "pausing" an economy not built to stop, or pause, or even hiccup, according to all human experience thus far. Let our modern wise men consider this as well. For every action or inaction there is great cost at this time. We are unfortunately living in interesting times.

All sourced to experts in each field, with links included if you go here:

https://thefederalist.com/2020/03/30/how-shutting-down-the-economy-much-longer-could-kill-tens-of-thousands-of-americans/

which is HERE if you are OK with accepting links from strangers; 3/31/20, 1:31 PM
rcocean said...: We need to get the small businesses and coffee shops up and running. Just limit number of people in the business at one time, and keep the 6 foot rule. Shutting them down completely is insane.

Stupid WH Reporter (is there any other kind?) was asking if we need a nationwide lock-down. Good God, do these DC Jurno idiots understand that you can't have one size fits all in a nation of 320 million? Rural America doesn't need a lock down. They're already "socially isolated" by choice.; 3/31/20, 1:32 PM
Bill, Republic of Texas said...: “Fauci: Mask-wearing recommendation under 'very serious consideration'”

About time. We see the Asian countries all going about their daily business wearing nothing more then surgical masks. Their rate of infection is much lower. Maybe it's the heat and humidity. Maybe it's the masks and maybe both.

When all is said and done, I wonder what will be the body count attributable to the FDA and CDC?; 3/31/20, 1:32 PM
Mike (MJB Wolf) said...: Sorry about the weird spacing, Althouse. I composed it on my laptop and it looks much more different than on my phone! (Also so much easier.); 3/31/20, 1:32 PM
rcocean said...: As usual lots of people don't really understand what this is all about. We're trying to flatten the curve. its not the black death. Its really about saving Grandma and that guy with a bad lung.; 3/31/20, 1:34 PM
rcocean said...: face masks would be a great way to go - instead of shutting everything down.; 3/31/20, 1:35 PM
Achilles said...: Ann Althouse said...

People are friendly, saying hi, because we all know we’re in this together.

"As you well know the secret of community lies in the suppression of the incompatible."

"There can be enormous value in cooperation."

"To you. Not to me."; 3/31/20, 1:37 PM
rcocean said...: Has anyone explained - scientifically - why heat and humidity retard the spread of the Chinese virus? Because lots of places - particularly in the South are about to heat up - real fast.; 3/31/20, 1:37 PM
narciso said...: no next question; 3/31/20, 1:39 PM
rcocean said...: Has Mitt Romney come out of quarantine? It was so great he tested negative. really, really, great.; 3/31/20, 1:39 PM
exiledonmainstreet, green-eyed devil said...: rcocean said...
Has anyone explained - scientifically - why heat and humidity retard the spread of the Chinese virus?"

Does it though? I had great hope that, like the "normal" flu viruses, this would go away by April due to heat and humidity. But if that is the case, why was Australia hit so hard? And New Orleans and Florida?; 3/31/20, 1:42 PM
narciso said...: eureka, we're saved, lol; 3/31/20, 1:42 PM
Achilles said...: We are probably going to have to print off so much money to deal with this that all of the government pensions and social security are no longer enough to support people.

The only way we are all in this together is if all those retired people have to go back to work to support themselves and feel the hardship that is out their right now for everyone else.; 3/31/20, 1:43 PM
narciso said...: more humid climes, maybe,; 3/31/20, 1:43 PM
Automatic_Wing said...: About time. We see the Asian countries all going about their daily business wearing nothing more then surgical masks. Their rate of infection is much lower. Maybe it's the heat and humidity. Maybe it's the masks and maybe both.

Generally, folks are wearing other clothes in addition to their surgical masks. Perhaps there are some exceptions.; 3/31/20, 1:44 PM
Michael K said...: Mike Sylwester said...
California would have bought more ventilators, but building a high-speed train was more important.

I believe they had many more and sold them. Yes, Brown defunded them.

Through a spokesperson, Brown, the former governor, declined to be interviewed for this story. Officials in the state Department of Finance declined to comment. Officials with the state Public Health Department declined interviews and provided only brief written answers to some questions, declining to provide a full accounting of the stockpile.

Jennifer Lim, acting chief deputy director for the Emergency Medical Services Authority, said by email that after the mobile hospital program was defunded, the state had “redesigned” it, converting the units into what she called “mobile medical shelters.” One was given to the California National Guard, and another was broken up into parts and distributed to local agencies. Only one shelter was kept by the state.

Of course.

After Schwarzenegger left office, Backer was appointed by Brown to head the Emergency Medical Services Authority, the state agency overseeing the mobile hospitals, just as they were defunded.

“It’s the nearsightedness of political decision-making,” said Backer, who retired last year. “If you talked to the experts, we knew that pandemics were going to come around.”

Now, it’s here, with California under sweeping stay-at-home orders as one of the global hotspots of the COVID-19 pandemic.

“These supplies were exactly for this scenario,” he said.

But, of course, blame Trump.; 3/31/20, 1:44 PM
narciso said...: oh they left that out; 3/31/20, 1:45 PM
Michael K said...: Another blogger fart,.; 3/31/20, 1:45 PM
narciso said...: 1984's a how to manual; 3/31/20, 1:48 PM
Achilles said...: rcocean said...
Has anyone explained - scientifically - why heat and humidity retard the spread of the Chinese virus? Because lots of places - particularly in the South are about to heat up - real fast.

It has to do with the time the virus spends outside the body of the host and the percentage of live virus cells that remain alive over time.

In hot humid environments the virus decays at a higher rate. Cool dry environments allow the virus to remain viable for longer periods.

At some point the virus can dry out and remain viable for extended period of time i.e. days/weeks.

Once it gets warm and humid enough it decays before it dries out.; 3/31/20, 1:49 PM
Derve Swanson said...: This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.; 3/31/20, 1:51 PM
hawkeyedjb said...: "Gov Bullock lets us go outside for our exercise. I thought most stay-home orders did."

Here in AZ we can go out for pretty much any sort of exercise, including golf. Gun stores and ranges are open. We have our priorities straight.

"A 1% change in unemployment will increase the property crime rate by 71.1 per 100,000 people and the violent crime rate by 31.9 per 100,000 people."

See above. Lotsa folks are acquiring their first self-protection weapons, and I think Trump is going to override the locals who try to shutter gun stores. 'Protection for me but not for thee' is for the birds; 3/31/20, 1:51 PM
Mike (MJB Wolf) said...: Hawkeye, DHS made that clear today in their 2nd Amendment notice.; 3/31/20, 1:53 PM
Achilles said...: exiledonmainstreet, green-eyed devil said...

Does it though? I had great hope that, like the "normal" flu viruses, this would go away by April due to heat and humidity. But if that is the case, why was Australia hit so hard? And New Orleans and Florida?

What are you talking about?

19 people have died in Australia.

77 in Florida.

239 people in Louisiana because of Mardi Gras. Look at temperature levels in New Orleans in early February.

There seems to be no perspective at all.; 3/31/20, 1:54 PM
hawkeyedjb said...: "Hawkeye, DHS made that clear today in their 2nd Amendment notice."

Then that is good news. One hopes that the locals will take appropriate notice and knock off their shenanigans.; 3/31/20, 1:57 PM
rcocean said...: "Once it gets warm and humid enough it decays before it dries out."

Thanks. Sometimes it pays to live in Mississippi.; 3/31/20, 1:59 PM
exiledonmainstreet, green-eyed devil said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; 3/31/20, 2:01 PM
bagoh20 said...: "Has anyone explained - scientifically - why heat and humidity retard the spread of the Chinese virus? Because lots of places - particularly in the South are about to heat up - real fast."

I was told by a doctor just yesterday that in warmer temperatures the viral particles degrade in seconds or minutes rather than hours or days. It's up to 79 degrees here in Vegas today and into the eighties this week. Die you little shits.; 3/31/20, 2:03 PM
exiledonmainstreet, green-eyed devil said...: Achilles, I wasn't aware of the low fatality rate in Australia. And yes, I know about Mardi Gras.

I fervently hope that the heat and humidity causes the virus to decay.

No need to get snotty with people who are simply asking questions and looking for information.; 3/31/20, 2:06 PM
Inga said...: “As of noon on March 31, the Louisiana Department of Health reported 1,212 additional cases since Monday, bringing the total to 5,237 positive cases.

So far, 239 people have died.“

It’s been near 80 in New Orleans all week. Let’s see if the cases fall with warm weather.; 3/31/20, 2:11 PM
Nonapod said...: In hot humid environments the virus decays at a higher rate. Cool dry environments allow the virus to remain viable for longer periods.

At some point the virus can dry out and remain viable for extended period of time i.e. days/weeks.

Once it gets warm and humid enough it decays before it dries out.

There's also some indication that low humidity may decrease the normal immune responses in flu viruses. Yeah, I know Covid isn't a technically an influenza virus but I suspect these mechanisms may still apply.

From that article:

The researchers found that low humidity hindered the immune response of the animals in three ways. It prevented cilia, which are hair-like structures in airways cells, from removing viral particles and mucus. It also reduced the ability of airway cells to repair damage caused by the virus in the lungs. The third mechanism involved interferons, or signaling proteins released by virus-infected cells to alert neighboring cells to the viral threat. In the low-humidity environment, this innate immune defense system failed.; 3/31/20, 2:15 PM
Rory said...: "...unemployed people are 50% more likely to be a homicide victim than an employed person."

Pantomime horses hit even harder.; 3/31/20, 2:17 PM
Inga said...: Also, another thing to consider, people in warm climates in developed countries live in air conditioning. Cooler dryer air, just what Covid and humans like.; 3/31/20, 2:21 PM
hawkeyedjb said...: It's a good point Inga. Louisiana may be hot & wet, but not necessarily Louisianans.; 3/31/20, 2:34 PM
Achilles said...: exiledonmainstreet, green-eyed devil said...
Achilles, I wasn't aware of the low fatality rate in Australia. And yes, I know about Mardi Gras.

I fervently hope that the heat and humidity causes the virus to decay.

No need to get snotty with people who are simply asking questions and looking for information.

I apologize to an extent.

But we are now a police state. We are all making choices right now as to what kind of country we live in. Things are a little fucked up right now and people are just giving away freedoms I saw buddies die for.

So I am a bit snippy.

I have been saying the same thing for weeks now.

The numbers are all in the same worldinfometers site. Every country is reporting.

It just is not killing many people outside of very specific temperature and humidity bands.

Weeks ago I said New York and Italy are screwed but it was Spring in Seattle.

I said France and Spain would follow and that Germany was aware of the issue when their temperatures hit the dangerous range.

We are handling this virus in a really fucking stupid manner.; 3/31/20, 2:38 PM
Achilles said...: Inga said...
Also, another thing to consider, people in warm climates in developed countries live in air conditioning. Cooler dryer air, just what Covid and humans like.

This is true to an extent. But places in air conditioned buildings are generally the result of wealth as air conditioning requires wealth.

Therefor they are generally cleaned more often that general outdoor environments.

One of the key factors for viral transmission is that there is a certain critical mass of infection that is required for the virus to persist in the environment.

The flu only hits during "flu season" for a reason.; 3/31/20, 2:42 PM
stevew said...: As the data accumulates knowledge grows, hope and optimism are expanding.

Who goes on strike during the shutdown caused by an epidemic?; 3/31/20, 2:48 PM
Inga said...: Captain of Aircraft Carrier Pleads for Help as Virus Cases Increase Onboard. “We are not at war,” the captain of the carrier Theodore Roosevelt wrote. “Sailors do not need to die. If we do not act now, we are failing to properly take care of our most trusted asset — our sailors.”

And there are 12 ships with Covid cases on them. Not just this aircraft carrier.; 3/31/20, 3:06 PM
wild chicken said...: I could have sworn I saw a comment going off on Ann for being outside taking photos of the sunrise.

Hence my question above.; 3/31/20, 3:22 PM
Francisco D said...: Achilles said: I apologize to an extent. I am a bit snippy... We are handling this virus in a really fucking stupid manner.

I appreciate your input although I have no idea if we are handling this correctly. Time will tell.

There is a lot of snippiness going around. People are pissing each other off, but we have to differentiate between trolls (e.g., Chuckles and ARM) and people who have strong contrary opinions (e.g., Ken B).

It is easier for me to try to be the "voice of reason" because I am retired and can ride this out somewhat better than others. However, if the stock market collapses, I will be in significant financial pain.; 3/31/20, 3:41 PM
Rick said...: people who have strong contrary opinions (e.g., Ken B).

People aren't criticizing Ken because he has strong opinions. They're criticizing him because he lies about their positions.; 3/31/20, 4:15 PM
I Have Misplaced My Pants said...: Has anyone explained - scientifically - why heat and humidity retard the spread of the Chinese virus? Because lots of places - particularly in the South are about to heat up - real fast.

86 degrees at my house today.

360,000 souls in my county
000,030 cases of covid, none serious, all travel related (none community spread)

40% of businesses in my county shut down.

Ain't we got fun!; 3/31/20, 4:25 PM
tim in vermont said...: For all the years I lived in Florida, if I wanted to catch something like a cold or flu, a quick ride on an airplane up north would do it for me. Otherwise I rarely had a cold and almost never had the flu.; 3/31/20, 5:13 PM
Michael K said...: All the captain of the aircraft carrier needs to do is put those sailors in a single ward and start them on hydroxychloroquine and Zpacs and I suspect, unless one gets a cytokine storm, they will be fine.

The Navy can't steer their ships let alone take care of a few sick sailors.; 3/31/20, 5:43 PM
Paco Wové said...: "They're criticizing him because he lies about their positions."

I thought it was because he's just generally a douche.; 3/31/20, 6:27 PM

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