March 19, 2020

"Success means a longer — though less catastrophic — fight against the coronavirus. And it is unclear whether Americans — who built this country on ideals of independence and individual rights..."

"... would be willing to endure such harsh restrictions on their lives for months, let alone for a year or more.... If no action to limit the viral spread were taken, as many as 2.2 million people in the United States could die over the course of the pandemic.... Adopting some mitigation strategies to slow the pandemic — such as isolating those suspected of being infected and social distancing of the elderly — only cuts the death toll in half to 1.1 million, although it would also reduce demand for health services by two-thirds. Only by enacting an entire series of drastic, severe restrictions could America shrink its death toll further.... That strategy would require, at minimum, the nationwide practice of social distancing, home isolation, and school and university closures. And such restrictions would have to be maintained, at least intermittently, until a working vaccine is developed, which could take 12 to 18 months at best.... If the numbers next month get truly crazy, cities may look to convert stadiums into isolation wards, as in Wuhan. [Governor Andrew] Cuomo has talked of turning the six-block-long Javits Convention Center on New York City’s west side into a medical surge facility. Others might take Italy’s approach and split hospitals into those treating coronavirus and those treating all other medical problems, to reduce transmission. In San Francisco, we may see coronavirus patients put into RVs...."

From "Coronavirus will radically alter the U.S./Here’s what may lie ahead based on math models, hospital projections and past pandemics" (WaPo).

245 comments:

1 – 200 of 245   Newer›   Newest»
DanTheMan said...

2 million dead?
Same guys who say that we only have 10 years left every 10 years?

tcrosse said...

This assumes that no treatments prove effective, which they very well might.

Bay Area Guy said...

". If no action to limit the viral spread were taken, as many as 2.2 million people in the United States could die over the course of the pandemic."

What.a.piece.of.utter.fucking.fear-mongering. bullshit.

Fact 1: New York has 19 Million people.

Fact 2: No. of Coronavirus deaths in New York: 12

Cuomo is a liar.

gilbar said...


Even without the lockdown; HOW LONG do you Boomers think 20 somethings are going to continue to NOT go to bars, just because the legal ones are closed? One Month? Two?

I wonder If our government had ever tried shutting done ALL the bars in a state before?
I'm SURE that IF this had been tried before; it must have worked Completely Successfully?

I mean, if the government tells you you can't go to bars; you have no alternative, do you?
I just wish History could give us some insight on this

tim in vermont said...

For those who think this is BS, read this thread from a person in contact with a front line nurse in NYC

https://twitter.com/evansiegfried/status/1240450608919912458

BTW, They need blood.

Amadeus 48 said...

World to end next month!

Where have I heard that before?

Earnest Prole said...

I take it that means cases will not be down to close to zero within a couple of days.

Morkoth4682 said...

What a croc of shite... the left is salivating at the thought they might be able to use the Coronavirus to achieve their secret totalitarian desires...

tim in vermont said...

If the economy remains shut down for a year, the bigger problem will be roving gangs busting down doors, stealing your pickup trucks, etc... At some point we have to man up and, as they say in golf, take our medicine.

We just haven’t gone through the psychological changes yet required to do this.

Morkoth4682 said...

or, should I say, "not-so-secret"...

Mattman26 said...

"World to end next month!"

You forgot: Blacks hardest hit.

Dust Bunny Queen said...

If we are all in lockdown and at an economic standstill for 18 months......it won't matter how many died of the Wuhan Flu. The country will be bankrupt, the economy will have collapsed, supply lines a thing of the past..... and people will have reverted to everyman or woman for themselves.

Law and order will be a dream. The military will have to take over. The US as we knew it...poof....gone.

You'd better be prepared and find some like minded friends because it will take more than just you standing alone against this tide.

The survivors will wish that they had died too.

DanTheMan said...

>>I wonder If our government had ever tried shutting done ALL the bars in a state before?

Ask Mr. Volstead.

Achilles said...

First fact: The journalist that wrote that article knows less about this than almost everyone on this board.

Second fact: The WAPO is specifically interested in getting people to use Amazon delivery services rather than to go shopping in person.

Fernandistein said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
tim in vermont said...

Preppers are all geniuses, BTW, every one. I remember an episode of House where "Dr House” ridiculed preppers. House is supposed to be some kind of super genius, but that line always struck me as a very odd thing for a man who was supposed to be hyper intelligent.

Morkoth4682 said...

We already have a treatment which is proving to be nearly 100% effective at curing the virus... This entire thing is a fucking farce, a 3-ring circus concocted by China and abetted by those financially compromised by them...

Ken B said...

“This assumes that no treatments prove effective, which they very well might.”

Yes. All the more reason to try to stop the spread right now. Maybe we can keep this to a mere disaster not a catastrophe. But not if we listen to most of the fools here.

There are currently two promising drugs, remsedivir which is in testing and chloroquine which is available and easy to produce. Michael K has posted a lot about remsedivir. I assume it will be used even though not fully tested. A problem there is that we will need to get Democrats not to flip out when we pay the patent hold a huge amount, and when we indemnify them against law suits. Think Bernie spewing hate at Pharma.
I assume that being a generic already chloroquine can be produced quickly. That is not always a safe assumption, depending on the sources for the active ingredients.

tim in vermont said...

"They used to call the the "Incredulous Hunk" before I got cynical.”

It’s probably all lies.

Mattman26 said...

Aunty, the tale in that twitter thread is (if true) evidence of a nasty shitshow at that particular hospital. It does nothing to support the "millions will die" model.

So I come back to: Bullshit.

Fernandistein said...

For those who think this is BS, read this thread from a person in contact with a front line nurse in NYC

A friend of a twitter poster at an anonymous hospital says that having covid-19 doesn't make them sick enough to warrant staying home?

Is that good news or bad news, or just a worthless twitter post?

They used to call mee the "Incredulous Hunk" before I got appropriately cynical.

Achilles said...

"And such restrictions would have to be maintained, at least intermittently, until a working vaccine is developed, which could take 12 to 18 months at best.... "

The person that wrote this is a moron.

People who believe it are dumb.

The Cracker Emcee Refulgent said...

What a bunch of apocalyptic dogshit. Were that scenario plausible, it would be better to let the flu run it’s course. Close nothing. Avoid nothing. Maximum exposure for accelerated immunity.

rhhardin said...

Richard Epstein (podcast today) disagrees
https://www.hoover.org/research/libertarian-law-economics-and-coronavirus

BarrySanders20 said...

We are all preppers now.

Send lawyers, guns and money
Cause the shit has hit the fan

https://youtu.be/lP5Xv7QqXiM

The Cracker Emcee Refulgent said...

I hear it’s like Mad Max in China right now! You know, China. With the 1920’s hygiene and the 1950’s healthcare. Oh, wait...

DanTheMan said...

>>If we are all in lockdown and at an economic standstill for 18 months......it won't matter how many died of the Wuhan Flu.

18 months? I don't think most folks are going to put up with this for 18 more days. I'm already tired of being told that if go shopping, that I'll have the blood of dead old people on my hands.

It seems we are in a contest to see who can panic the most. Sorry, I'm in one of the at risk groups and I'm just not playing.



Thistlerose said...

I don't understand how these numbers can be correct. China has a poplulation of 1.39 billion. they had 80,928 cases with 3245 deaths. This means that they had 58 cases per million people and 2.33 deaths. Even if their numbers are off by a factor of 10 that would be 580 cases per million and 23.3 deaths per million.

Why would the death rate in the United States be 3438 per million or 1476 times higher then the death rate in China? I may be incorrect with the math but there is no way the 2.2 million number of deaths ties to what we observed in China where the infection rate is now going down.

Fernandistein said...

It’s probably all lies.

Just an exaggeration; replace "they" with "she".

Seriously, was that twittering about an anonymous friend in an anonymous place, written by someone who writes "commentary in NY Times, Wall Street Journal, Wash Post, NBC News, Daily Beast" good news, bad news, or just a worthless twitter post written by a professional left-wing propagandist?

tim in vermont said...

"So I come back to: Bullshit.”

"Anyone who cannot cope with mathematics is not fully human. At best, he is a tolerable subhuman who has learned to wear his shoes, bathe, and not make messes in the house.” ― Robert Heinlein

That’s his opinion, not mine.

Bay Area Guy said...

Fact 1: New Jersey has a population of 9 Million.

Fact 2: No. of Corona deaths in NJ: 3

Maybe the Governor can take the Holland Tunnel to flee to safety under the Hudson River. Or is it the Lincoln? I forget.

narciso said...

they've been reading the stand, or the strain, that is the objective the bezos post wants,

DanTheMan said...

>>until a working vaccine is developed, which could take 12 to 18 months at best.

We already have a working vaccine of sorts. It's the blood from those who have been infected and recovered. They have the antibodies.

Bay Area Guy said...

@ThistleRose - you are my new hero:)

David-2 said...

Here in Seattle, a scant few miles away from the Kirkland WA death home, hottest of hot spots for the Coronavirus epidemic in the United States, the respected University of Washington medical school is posting - here: https://depts.washington.edu/uwviro/ - their daily results from their testing for Coronavirus in our panicked local population. Just about two weeks is currently showing up on the chart.

Length of line from X-axis up is number of test performed that day. (Current day is short because reporting is incomplete.) Red part of the line is the percentage, of the total length that day, that were positive for having coronavirus - not dead of it, not even dying from it, just having it.

Does that look to you like exponential growth of the deadly infection? The kind that is going to take out 2M+ residents (legal and ... undocumented) of the United States of America?

Yeah, I don't think so either.

tcrosse said...

Ceteris Paribus.

DanTheMan said...

>>Fact 1: New Jersey has a population of 9 Million. Fact 2: No. of Corona deaths in NJ: 3

9 Million divided by 3 is 300 million dead,just in New Jersey alone.


MSNBC math.

Mattman26 said...

Pretty sure Heinlein would see this my way.

Birkel said...

This guy is excellent at predicting the future. /sarc
Let's have him predict things that can be tested.
I bet he gets everything correct. /sarc

I am still dead from Net Neutrality repeal so I remain unworried.

Leland said...

turning the six-block-long Javits Convention Center on New York City’s west side into a medical surge facility

Where will they find the doctors and nurses to manage it?

bagoh20 said...

If you buy this, you better buy a gun, or a few of them, and make some fiends with some ass kickers. The virus is not going to be the problem in this scenario.

If you believe the reported numbers, this just does not jive with the China experience, where they are mostly through it now.

87% of their cases are now "recovered".
After having 80,000 cases, they only had 34 new cases and 8 new deaths yesterday.

I don't see how our experience can be worse than there with us only having 1/9 the number of cases and less than 5% the number of deaths. Something seems wildly wrong with this.

DanTheMan said...

>>I am still dead from Net Neutrality repeal so I remain unworried.

I was one of the millions who starved to death when Clinton signed Welfare reform.

gilbar said...

i though, THIS was a pretty interesting concatenation

"Anyone who cannot cope with mathematics is not fully human. At best, he is a tolerable subhuman who has learned to wear his shoes, bathe, and not make messes in the house.” ― Robert Heinlein
That’s his opinion, not mine.
3/19/20, 5:45 PM
Blogger Bay Area Guy said...
Fact 1: New Jersey has a population of 9 Million.
Fact 2: No. of Corona deaths in NJ: 3

I Have Misplaced My Pants said...

Hand flapping! Hand flapping everywhere!

Absurd. No one will put up with all this for much longer. We’re going to learn to live with the virus, whatever it does. None of this is sustainable.

Achilles said...

Aunty Trump said...
"So I come back to: Bullshit.”

"Anyone who cannot cope with mathematics is not fully human. At best, he is a tolerable subhuman who has learned to wear his shoes, bathe, and not make messes in the house.” ― Robert Heinlein

That’s his opinion, not mine.

I am trying not to make the comparison to Inga.

stevew said...

What has to happen for the All Clear signal to be given?

gilbar said...

okay, it's been DAYS since i've last said this; so it's time to repeat:
BECAUSE OF THIS COVFEFE-19 VIRUS,
NEARLY EVERY SINGLE PERSON READING THIS WILL BE DEAD (in the next 50 years, or so)


You are ALL Going TO DIE!!!!!!
WASH THOSE SHOES!!!

AllenS said...

I tried to find out how many have died in Wisconsin from corona virus, but couldn't find any data. What I did learn is that a little more than 150 have tested positive.

This is causing the closing of businesses?

Curious George said...

Althouse spreading hope.

"If the economy remains shut down for a year, the bigger problem will be roving gangs busting down doors, stealing your pickup trucks, etc... At some point we have to man up and, as they say in golf, take our medicine.

We just haven’t gone through the psychological changes yet required to do this."

This. And forget a year...it will start happening long before this. And Meadhouse, for all their pollyanish "If I can save one person..." will understand the reality outside their world. Covid19 is not the risk. The total breakdown of society is. Your pension won't save you.

gerry said...

Since the Corona fatality rates are now being questioned (and seem to be about the same or less than flu), will sanity prevail, or will we go through this every year we have a flu pandemic?

Calm down.

Achilles said...

bagoh20 said...
If you buy this, you better buy a gun, or a few of them, and make some fiends with some ass kickers. The virus is not going to be the problem in this scenario.

If you believe the reported numbers, this just does not jive with the China experience, where they are mostly through it now.

87% of their cases are now "recovered".
After having 80,000 cases, they only had 34 new cases and 8 new deaths yesterday.

I don't see how our experience can be worse than there with us only having 1/9 the number of cases and less than 5% the number of deaths. Something seems wildly wrong with this.



Yep.

The numbers just are not there.

More and more people are seeing this. I am no longer a lonely voice.

If you all keep this up the boomerang isn't going to stop with the people misleading you.

You all know the media was itching for a recession and they got their chance to cause it.

This will not get to keep up much longer.

Spiros said...

Germany has an extremely aggressive testing program that has uncovered about 10,000 Covid 19 cases. Yet Germany's Covid 19 fatality rate is just 0.2 per cent (compared to 7.9 per cent in Italy). There is no way the Germans are less susceptible (genetically) to Covid 19 than the Italians. There are some demographic differences, but so what. Even South Korea is coming in at 0.5 or 0.6. Something very strange is happening here.

Maybe our only real option is to let the disease run its course and protect the very old and people with compromised immune systems.

DanTheMan said...

>>What has to happen for the All Clear signal to be given?


When you see the first corona virus lawsuits filed against employers, stores, and cruise lines, that will be a good leading indicator that the panic is over, and it's time to cash in.

narciso said...

1984 is a how to manual

narciso said...

https://twitter.com/redsteeze/status/1240756223827304449

gilbar said...

Seriously, Boomers?

How LONG do you think that 20 somethings are going to do without going to bars,
just so You can continue to collect your social security checks

many (Many! (MANY!)) commenters here have gone on and on (and on and on (and on and on))
about, how there's going to be a shooting war; and that they're EAGER for it

If the shooting war is between; bootlegging, speakeasy going, 20 something Vets;
And YOU geriatric cases . . . You Really WANT that?

Fernandistein said...

1984 is a how to manual

We've always been at war with diseases.

Achilles said...

AllenS said...
I tried to find out how many have died in Wisconsin from corona virus, but couldn't find any data. What I did learn is that a little more than 150 have tested positive.

This is causing the closing of businesses?


Here you go.


You will quickly see why you had trouble finding out how many people in Wisconsin died.

stevew said...

P.S. First day of spring. Hope springs eternal.

narciso said...

https://twitter.com/NewYearsDani/status/1240766187400826880?s=20

Achilles said...

narciso said...
https://twitter.com/NewYearsDani/status/1240766187400826880?s=20


baaahhhhh.

stevew said...

Oh boy, narciso, do the needful, send them home.

mockturtle said...

People aren't really panicking, Achilles. You're the one with your knickers in a twist.

Curious George said...

" I Have Misplaced My Pants said...
Absurd. No one will put up with all this for much longer. We’re going to learn to live with the virus, whatever it does. None of this is sustainable."

We better, or you can't imagine the suffering. Inga's 1919 Spanish flu will seem like Club Med.

Chicago just said they will delay shutting off water, collecting on things like parking tickets etc, for six weeks. Evictions. They have a $100 million small business loan program to help them through this. What a bunch of crap. So dishonest. They have no ability to collect these anyway with the stay at home rules. The $100 million is like emptying Lake Michigan with a teaspoon.

More people are going to die from the measures taken than from the virus if we go too much longer. I say April first it's time to just deal with the virus.

AllenS said...

Thanks, Achilles, just as I thought. The sissy bitch Democrat Governess Tony Evers closes the bars down for this?

He needs to be impeached.

chickelit said...

Here's a problem: if draconian measures are put into place, and massive fatalities do not occur, credit will be taken regardless of the true cause. This would be most clearly seen in neighboring countries which do relatively little and do not suffer massive casualtie -- for example, in Britain and Europe, or the US and Mexico.

If the the coronavirus passes us over by Passover, without massive casualties, social distancing will be credited -- whether or not it was the reason.

mockturtle said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
The Vault Dweller said...

I think the longer this goes on, the higher likelihood we will see social distancing measures more narrowly tailored to at-risk groups. So people with pre-existing conditions and the older, might be advised to dramatically quasi-self-quarantine for months on end. Which is something that I think the vast majority of humans are in fact capable of.

People think of a bedridden person as sick or infirm, but it wasn't more than a hundred years ago, that the elderly would largely remain in bed during hard times, when food was scarce, usually during winter. And they would largely remain in bed for months on end, so that their lack of activity would conserve scarce amounts of food.

So I think that could happen here. The at risk stay home, while the others can largely go about with few restrictions in an ongoing chicken pox party, so that most of the people get it, have little or no symptoms and then develop immunity, so that later on the virus won't be bouncing around as much in the general population, and if a person gets it particularly if they are at risk, there will be plenty of medical resources available for them.

mockturtle said...

Let's all hope and pray that hydroxychloroquine is the magic bullet. We should know soon!

hstad said...

Aunty Trump - sorry a tweet from a single individual talking to another single individual who is reacting to 'panic orders' from her superiors (political) is not my idea of evidence. My take is- year to date (CDC data thru 2/29) - Seasonal Flu (36 million plus infected) total deaths 22,000+ in the USA year - to date Covit - 19 deaths 10,000 + (3/18)worldwide.

But this article addresses something interesting and is pure panic B.S. They state: "... would [not] be willing to endure such harsh restrictions on their lives for months, let alone for a year or more...."

The 'Left' and 'Big Government'are quite similar in these types of emergencies (panic). The natural tendency over time is for the scope of government to expand as more and more decisions are taken away from individuals. Since government officials constantly have incentives to expand their powers because our attention is not constantly focused on maintaining limits on those powers. Remember what Rahm Emanuel said: “You never want a serious crisis to go to waste. And what I mean by that is an opportunity to do things that you think you could not do before.” Governments - Democratic, Totalitarian, etc., quest for powers is unlimited. This crisis will be exploited! So was 9/11 and look at the FISA mess of today.

mockturtle said...

Where in hell did this 12-18 month crap come from???

bagoh20 said...

Besides being wonderful, what if nobody dies from it in Wisconsin?, or the 24 other states where nobody has died. That's right, half the states so far have no fatalities, zero, and another 21 have less than 10. Only 3 states have more than 20, and the worst state (NY) has 74. Where is this catastrophe happening? The vast majority of cases are not severe, just tested positive, so where are all the sick people coming from. Something is just not jiving here. Either the numbers reported are way off or people are lying.

Robin Goodfellow said...

"Blogger Amadeus 48 said...
World to end next month!"

Women and minorities hardest hit!

I Callahan said...

People aren't really panicking, Achilles. You're the one with your knickers in a twist.

The entire article above is an exercise in panic. So no, that’s not the case.

The Vault Dweller said...

Blogger chickelit said...
Here's a problem: if draconian measures are put into place, and massive fatalities do not occur, credit will be taken regardless of the true cause.


It is interesting you say that because I was initially worried about the opposite. If it turns out there are no major number of fatalities, I thought people would say, 'See it was never a big deal to begin with. Social Distancing was a complete over-reaction!'

To be fair I could see it be argued both ways.

Achilles said...

mockturtle said...
People aren't really panicking, Achilles. You're the one with your knickers in a twist.

Are you joking or serious?

bagoh20 said...

If this turns out to be lies, heads need to roll. If it turns out true, then there was nothing that could be done to stop it anyway.

rcocean said...

12,000 died from Ebola in 2009-2010. But now we're going to lose MILLIONS? We need more data to support that.

J Severs said...

"There is something fascinating about science. One gets such wholesale returns of conjecture out of such a trifling investment of fact.” Mark Twain

I Have Misplaced My Pants said...

If there are currently 64 — 6,4 — critical cases in the US, according to worldometer, how can hospitals be overwhelmed?

AllenS said...

Let us compare, shall we?

There have been 28 homicides in Milwaukee so far in 2020.

narciso said...

long before that

rcocean said...

Here's how its going to be reported by the MSM:

1) if we lose a million people - Trump killed them, he didn't act in time!

2) if we lose very few - Trump panicked and cratered the Economy!

bagoh20 said...



And it will be. “VICTORY HAS A HUNDRED FATHERS AND DEFEAT IS AN ORPHAN.” ~ JFK

rcocean said...

Baltimore's Mayor asked for a Chinese Flu Truce. Not sure if the crooks went along.

narciso said...

the background to that link on the other thread

walter said...

www.covidtrial.io

I Callahan said...

Where in hell did this 12-18 month crap come from???

The same people the panickers have given credence to over the past week.

narciso said...

before we go to I am legend

mockturtle said...

Bagoh, New York state confirmed its first case of Wuhan virus on March 1. Eighteen days later they have 5365 confirmed cases and 34 deaths. I don't know where you live but don't assume things can't change quickly.

walter said...

Background

A recent controlled clinical study conducted by Didier Raoult​ M.D/Ph.D, et. al in France has shown that 100% patients that received a combination of HCQ and Azithromycin tested negative and were virologically cured within 6 days of treatment.

In addition, recent guidelines from South Korea and China report that hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine are effective antiviral therapeutic treatments for novel coronavirus.

A therapeutic agent that prevents infection with novel coronavirus is highly desirable--especially for persons with high-risk exposure (e.g healthcare professionals) as well as persons with comorbidities (heart disease, diabetes, etc) and compromised immune systems. Ground-breaking in vitro studies demonstrate potential efficacy of hydroxychloroquine as a prophylactic for novel coronavirus infection in primate cells.

Note: Hydroxychloroquine (brand name Plaquenil) is an inexpensive, globally available drug (tablet) that was approved for widespread medical use since 1955. It is commonly used today to treat malaria, systemic lupus erythematosus and rheumatoid arthritis.
Project Lead

Gregory J. Rigano, Esq

Mr. Rigano is an Advisor to the Stanford University School of Medicine SPARK Translational Research Program. He's led a biotech firm for the past five years in research and clinical evaluation of Chloroquine in various diseases.

Bay Area Guy said...

NJ is up to 9 deaths.

My bad.

It still has 9 million people. Hmm. I think I can handle the math on that mortality rate.

Trenton, NJ? Not so nice.

Westfield, NJ? Very nice.

Achilles said...

rcocean said...
12,000 died from Ebola in 2009-2010. But now we're going to lose MILLIONS? We need more data to support that.

Swine Flu.

hstad said...


Blogger AllenS said...There have been 28 homicides in Milwaukee so far in 2020. 3/19/20, 6:25 PM

What about the comment from one of our esteemed leaders? "...Baltimore mayor urges residents stop gun violence, save hospital beds for COVID-19 patients..."

https://www.cbs19news.com/story/41914826/baltimore-mayor-urges-residents-stop-gun-violence-save-hospital-beds-for-covid19-patients

There you have it another 'Einsteinian' moment in our culture!

mockturtle said...

Of course I'm not a denier of the seriousness of this virus but I also agree that certain officials are relishing the taste of the power suddenly thrust upon them and causing them to go berserk. DiBlasio is a good example. Again, keeping individual counties' residents mostly confined to their own areas for the time being would keep most businesses and schools open but might serve to contain the virus better. Oh, well. Again, let's hope for the drug working! That's more likely sooner than a vaccine.

narciso said...

if we calculated it that way, then there was a doubling for 13 of those 18 days, unless there was that cohort all along,

Achilles said...

mockturtle said...
Bagoh, New York state confirmed its first case of Wuhan virus on March 1. Eighteen days later they have 5365 confirmed cases and 34 deaths. I don't know where you live but don't assume things can't change quickly.


For the record I think New York and specifically New York City could be fucked. I am seeing numbers there. It is hard to see things through the noise and I am not convinced everything we are getting in the US is accurate.

A lot of people there are going to die. But not more than the flu. I think the president moved a couple medical ships there.

Closing down Florida and Mississippi is really dumb. Keeping Seattle closed is dumb.

Closing down New York City during certain weather conditions for a period of time makes some sense.

Michael K said...

The "Hot Spots" in the country right now are three cities run by Democrats with high population densities. Washington, California and New York are the states. What do they have in common besides Democrats mayor? Sanctuary cities?-check. Lots of illegals?-check. International airports with lots of flights from China ?-check.


Hmmmmmmm.

bagoh20 said...

"I don't know where you live but don't assume things can't change quickly."

Las Vegas, and I don't assume things can't get worse, but the numbers are not showing a catastrophe anything like what we are hearing from some people out there. I want to know and act on what is happening, not the worst case imaginable in some fevered mind, and I hope to hell this is not lying and panic feeding for political gain. Anybody doing that should be finished for good, if not prosecuted.

tim in vermont said...

Country by country, cases and deaths.

https://www.ft.com/content/a26fbf7e-48f8-11ea-aeb3-955839e06441

mccullough said...

These articles are Virus Porn for Preppers.

CR said...

2.2 million deaths in a population of 325 million is roughly the same mortality rate as the Spanish Flu pandemic a hundred years ago, which was 670,000 dead in a US population of 103 million. How do they know the Corona virus will be as deadly as the 1918-20 pandemic? As if 100 years of medical research and progress has gained nothing. I'm sorry, but these projections seem surreal to me. Yet, in our house, we are doing our social distancing, as instructed.

Oso Negro said...

Blogger stevew said...
What has to happen for the All Clear signal to be given?

3/19/20, 6:02 PM


That's the economy killing question, isn't it? Don't expect clear plans from the folks who have kept us in Afghanistan for 18 years

Achilles said...

I am just going to put this here.

The weather in Seattle is really nice. Temperatures are going up.

There is a reason the flu season is a season.

This whole thing is going to be memory holed faster than you all believe possible. COVID-19 will be impolite to bring up. Trump's handling of this crisis along with the natural tendency of a population to unite behind a leader during crisis is helping him in the polls.

You can see the pants shitting in the media. Their idiotic shift to referring to the origins of the crisis as racist. Random democrats forced to complement Trump.

They are being forced to make these complements by the polls.

tim in vermont said...

Maybe this link will work

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1240723388336877569

sinz52 said...

I have a simpler and more elegant solution to this whole problem.

We now know that "Patient Zero" at the Biogen conference (infecting dozens of attendees) was an American who insisted on traveling to the conference even though he was sick.

That tells me what we need to do.

For at least two weeks, we need to shut down ALL passenger air travel in the United States. Only cargo planes and military aircraft should be allowed to fly.

If you were planning to travel by air, postpone it. Simple as that.

Without travel, the virus cannot spread.

Jersey Fled said...

I was going to just call b.s. on the whole thing, but I'm a little late to the party and I see about 100 people have beaten me to,it.

BTW does this mean we can just forget the climate change thing?

Achilles said...

I just googled the weather in New York City.

They be screwed for at least a week.

Whatever they do in that city given the numbers would probably not be an over reaction.

Mark said...

The thing is this --

You can't run away from suffering and death. If you try, they will eventually catch you. All you can do is try to minimize the trauma and have a healthy attitude toward the ultimate meaning of life and all things.

Ken B said...

It’s like a blog full of grade 9 math dropouts.

Howard said...

I sure hope you are right about temperature, Achilles.

Ken B said...

“ You can't run away from suffering and death. “

No one sits still in a forest fire.

Mark said...

The other thing is this --

And this is important --

Martha is looking mighty fine tonight, again.

Jonathan said...

This afternoon, on a lark/out of curiosity I went to the hospital near where I live in SouthEast Wisconsin (we'll leave it at that) to see what was going on. I went straight to the Emergency entrance. Based on the news coverage of this you would think that I saw something akin to the aftermath of Gettysburg or Omaha Beach.

Not at all!! The place was very quiet - almost deserted. I still think this is all BS. I know that makes me a "kook" of some sort, but that is what I saw.

sinz52 said...

Thistlerose asked: "Why would the death rate in the United States be 3438 per million or 1476 times higher then the death rate in China?"

Because the Chinese government was able to totally lock down Wuhan Province and seal it off, but we Americans seem to be unable to even seal off a single county, let alone every state in the Union.

The more travel you allow in and out of infected areas, the more the disease will spread. It's not easy to shut down travel in America because there have been Supreme Court rulings that Americans have a constitutional right to travel wherever they wish.

We would need some kind of emergency national security edict to override this. For example, under national security concerns, could the President temporarily suspend all citizens' driver's licenses?

tim in vermont said...

There isn’t going to be an all clear anytime soon. There is gonna be “mad as hell and we’re not gonna take it anymore” moment and stuff is gonna unwind as it unwinds. There is no way out of this without a lot of deaths, unless these treatments pan out. Even then, I can’t take Quinine, my heart won’t take it. Hopefully there is something else.

One thing that is for sure bullshit? That curve for China is perfectly formed with no randomness whatsoever.

sinz52 said...

Achilles said: "There is a reason the flu season is a season."

The World Health Organisation is NOT finding that coronavirus is inactivated in warmer weather. Unlike the flu, there may not be a "coronavirus season" after all.

Achilles said...

narciso said...
before we go to I am legend

If I lived in New York City right now I would plan a vacation. But the rest of hte country should want them quarantined.

It is going to suck for a bit.

I expect lord of the flies type shit there.

Mark said...

Anyone over the age of, say, 30 or so, who hasn't stared mortality in the face and already come to grips with death, whenever it may come, has fallen down on the job.

Howard said...

Doc Mike: it's the economic elites who are most exposed to international travelers for business. Why do you hate capitalism?

Curious George said...

We need to suck it up, accept the results that come with COVID19, and then spend the money in preparation for the next one. This issue a resource issue. Like forcing the Chicomms to put measures in place to stop the next virus' creation. And stock piling pandemic needs. Creating vaccines that may not be 100% effective, but reduce cases.

narciso said...

and 28 days later

BleachBit-and-Hammers said...

DBQ said...

"If we are all in lockdown and at an economic standstill for 18 months......it won't matter how many died of the Wuhan Flu. The country will be bankrupt, the economy will have collapsed, supply lines a thing of the past..... and people will have reverted to everyman or woman for themselves."


But biden-hillary-Deep-State will have their rightful thrones back, so - we have that to look forward to.

Achilles said...

sinz52 said...
Achilles said: "There is a reason the flu season is a season."

The World Health Organisation is NOT finding that coronavirus is inactivated in warmer weather. Unlike the flu, there may not be a "coronavirus season" after all.

The WHO also said there was no evidence of human to human transmission of coronavirus.

The WHO is not a credible source of information. It is agenda driven and evil.

People who cite the WHO are generally pernicious and should be shunned.

AllenS said...

You're not a kook, Jonathan, you're just someone, like a lot of us, that sees no reason for panic. This is the MSM and their Democrat co-partners trying to diminish our President, but even that panic that they have caused is starting to fall apart.

narciso said...

they exported their epidemic, maybe not as methodically as the blankets and the Indians but in a similar manner,

Mark said...

I remember the days when the first day of a season began on the 21st of the month.

tcrosse said...

Paris is really locked down. If you are out on the street without the proper papers you can be arrested and fined. So well-off Parisians figure it's time to GTFO, and are heading out to their summer places in the country or the seaside. This is upsetting to the provincials, who figure that the Parisians are bringing the virus with them.

Mark said...

Meanwhile, the usual suspects, instead of trying to be part of the solution, are doing things like slam Trump for being an optimist.

Yes, he is a braggart, and it is infuriating to some. But he also truly believes in the ability of the American people. Apparently, that infuriates people too.

gilbar said...

and there's HOW MANY Serious cases in ALL of AMERICA, again?
what are we up to now? Of serious cases? what is it
64,000?
6,400?
640?
????


How EVER many there are; i'm SURE it's MORE THAN AMERICA CAN cope with; right?
THIS IS THE MOST SERIOUS DISASTER THAT AMERICA HAS EVER FACED
It TOTALLY JUSTIFIES DESTROYING OUR ECONOMY, AND ELIMINATING ALL CIVIL LIBERTIES
right?
i mean, right?

Curious George said...

"sinz52 said...
For at least two weeks, we need to shut down ALL passenger air travel in the United States. Only cargo planes and military aircraft should be allowed to fly.

If you were planning to travel by air, postpone it. Simple as that.

Without travel, the virus cannot spread."

"sinz52 said...
We would need some kind of emergency national security edict to override this. For example, under national security concerns, could the President temporarily suspend all citizens' driver's licenses?"

What idiocy. The no flight thing? Too late. The virus is here. No travel? LOL. Sure people are just going to sit home and starve to death because their license is suspended.

Google Mad Max.

Mark said...

So people with pre-existing conditions and the older, might be advised to dramatically quasi-self-quarantine for months on end. Which is something that I think the vast majority of humans are in fact capable of.

The idea of a colony isn't all that bad after all. Put them all in some plush area, but cut them off entirely from contact with the outside world -- doesn't sound that bad. And it would keep them safe.

It is when disease gets inside the cloister that there is trouble.

traditionalguy said...

The Chinese pointed out that we had the antidote ready so we were in at the beginning of weaponizing the virus.Or we tricked them into using the secret virus on the world but were ready to save the planet...mid-April at the latest. Stay tuned.

BleachBit-and-Hammers said...

this virus better teach the world that we all need better preparation with infections disease quarantine centers. Imagine if Italy's touted healthcare system wasn't part of the problem?


MadisonMan said...

could die might happen

One is supposed to surrender freedom for things that might happen. Nope.

Achilles said...

Howard said...
I sure hope you are right about temperature, Achilles.

Humidity is important too. Warm air naturally holds more water so that is why temperature seems to have a cutoff.

All of the outbreaks follow a 5-11 degree Celsius average temperature band.

Italy is belt and road. But so is Africa. So is Pakistan. This appears to be moving on a march North in Europe. New York City is getting rain so I wonder how that is going to change things but cold air doesn't hold much water even when raining. But I think they are screwed.

I am just following the numbers.

From what I have read air conditioned environments are bad. Air conditioning naturally dehumidifies and keeps temperatures in a bad range.

I told the school administrators at our school to install humidifiers. Nobody listens to suggestions like that though.

rhhardin said...

Murder doesn't go exponential; the victims don't claim their own victims. That's why a zombie system is bad and murder isn't.

tim in vermont said...

"The World Health Organisation is NOT finding that...”

Stop right there.

The only good thing that WHO has don’e so far in this mess is to let the dogs out.

Yancey Ward said...

David-2's comment and link is worth your time. Look at that graph- fully take it in and then think about what it means.

It is evidence of a point I fucking made here until I am blue in the face- the number of positives is roughly proportional to the number of tests being performed. The "explosion" in new cases is a direct result of the increase in testing and discovering a much larger pool of infected- incidentally, if the tests are being run only on those with symptoms, then the negatives are doing the exact same thing, but we don't hear about an explosion of cold and flu sufferers, do we?

walter said...

Aunty,
Seems like heart interactions are rare. Is that your experience?
Maybe the dosage necessary to combat covid is different than for malaria.
In any case, if it worked across the broader population as a prevention/treatment, would put you in a better place.

Achilles said...

AllenS said...
You're not a kook, Jonathan, you're just someone, like a lot of us, that sees no reason for panic. This is the MSM and their Democrat co-partners trying to diminish our President, but even that panic that they have caused is starting to fall apart.

The democrats and the media originally intended to cause a recession and blame Trump.

But once again Trump was a step ahead of them.

I am finally forced to admit Trump is better at this than I could ever be.

I will be right about the outcome.

But I do not know how he could have known how to handle this so well. Is he just lucky? He is going to come out of this as popular as W was after 9/11.

Before it was easy to guess someone could run on a platform saying and doing what most americans wanted done (border enforcement lower regulations more manufacturing jobs) and be popular.

But turning this crisis around on the democrats/globalists so quickly is just amazing to me. It is almost enough to make me believe in a deity.

rhhardin said...

They don't close schools for zombie attacks, as far as I recall. There's a lot of shelter in place. That seems to be all that happens. Schools are only a side-effect.

Phil 314 said...

"This afternoon, on a lark/out of curiosity I went to the hospital near where I live in SouthEast Wisconsin (we'll leave it at that) to see what was going on. I went straight to the Emergency entrance. Based on the news coverage of this you would think that I saw something akin to the aftermath of Gettysburg or Omaha Beach.

Not at all!! The place was very quiet - almost deserted."

True in a lot of places. We have been effective in convincing people to stay home so the ED's aren't flooded with the "worried well"

The bigger question is "Where are we on the curve?" Az went for 9 cases to 27 cases in 5 days. that doesn't seem like much but it is a tripling in short time. With small #'s it hard to filter our random variation but as the numbers grow we'll get a clearer picture of how steep the curve actually is? If that is in fact the true rate of increase then by this time next month AZ would have over 19,000 cases. If we assumed a 1% mortality that would be 190 deaths.

For perspective AZ has about 4900 deaths per year.

tim in vermont said...

"Seems like heart interactions are rare. Is that your experience?”

I just read the guidelines and given my heart rhythm issues, I am pretty sure it would be a hard no. I stopped drinking after having two gin negronies at a party, they contain quinine, and I was in bad shape for two days. Maybe it was the quinine? Maybe if I stuck to vodka? Hope springs eternal!

sinz52 said...

AllenS said: "You're not a kook, Jonathan, you're just someone, like a lot of us, that sees no reason for panic. This is the MSM and their Democrat co-partners trying to diminish our President, but even that panic that they have caused is starting to fall apart"

To the extent that your attitude will cause you to disregard the experts and refuse to employ protective measures like handwashing and social distancing and urge others to do the same, you will help get people like "Aunty Trump" killed.

Trump's supporters are notorious for their "Screw Everybody Else" attitude. But in this case, the "screw" may be death by bacterial pneumonia or multiple organ failure.

Those of us at high risk of death from coronavirus do NOT appreciate your "Screw Everybody Else" attitude in this case. Leave it for such issues as marginal tax rates or government spending. Don't try to apply it to a deadly contagious disease. You will not be forgiven for screwing THAT up.

tim in vermont said...

Here’s a map.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html

Go to New York City and pop your head into an emergency room there.

FullMoon said...


Trump's supporters are notorious for their "Screw Everybody Else" attitude

Stupid comment. Are you really that stupid, or just pretending?

Lemme gues, life long republican never trumper, right?

FullMoon said...


Those of us at high risk of death from coronavirus do NOT appreciate your "Screw Everybody Else" attitude

What a crybaby. No doubt most elderly or currently having health problems will avoid crowds and be extra careful. If all the bars and restaurants and stores open, stay home. You do not need a govt order to do so, just experience and common sense.

jaydub said...

These numbers are BS. 16% of the US population is 65 and over which is most susceptible to a bad outcome. This means we're talking about .16 x 308 million or 49 million at risk citizens. The Diamond Princess (4,000 crew and passengers) was probably the worst situation possible for contagion and the passenger population was heavily skewed to older people. Yet,there were only seven deaths on that ship and 14 serious cases. If you divide the US 65 and older population by 4000 you get 8,624 Diamond Princess equivalents. So, this would scale up to 7 deaths/ship x 8624 ships, or about 60,000 deaths. And this assumes no effective treatments and no vaccine. Back of the envelope but probably a reasonable estimate. Worse case would probably be 120,000 to 180,000 which is a hell of a long way from 2 million. For sanity check purposes there were about 60,000 drug overdose deaths in the US last year.

Browndog said...

Governor Tom Wolf
‏Verified account @GovernorTomWolf

Today I’m taking decisive action to stop the spread of #COVID19 by ordering all non-life-sustaining businesses to close by 8 p.m.

Enforcement actions against businesses that don’t close will begin Saturday and could include citations, fines & license suspensions.

2:36 PM - 19 Mar 2020

FullMoon said...


Go to New York City and pop your head into an emergency room there.

Intentionally exposed to the virus? Sure, proves your point, I suppose.
Of the dead people in U.S., how many family members have died? Would suppose all of them. A link was provided yesterday where six or seven in a family died. Any more?


This is a repeat of cruise ship situation. Everybody did not die
Diamond Princess mysteries

Ken B said...

“ The WHO also said there was no evidence of human to human transmission of coronavirus.”

Indeed Achilles that is true. That’s what the Chinese communists told them. Blaming the WHO instead of the Chinese government? It surprises me to see you running interference for the Chinese communists actually.

Ken B said...

Desirous of seeing if the reports about New York City are accurate, Jonathan pays a visit to small town Wisconsin.

walter said...

bagoh20 said...Besides being wonderful, what if nobody dies from it in Wisconsin?
--
2 late

narciso said...

Its not the world affirmation organization, you conduct research independently.

Jersey Fled said...

Just for reference, here are the numbers for the 2019-2020 flu season from the CDC for the regular old flu. Period covered is Oct 1, 2019 through Mar 7, 2020. Numbers are the midpoints of the estimated ranges.

Illnesses 44 million

Hospitalizations 520 thousand

Deaths 38 thousand

Ken B said...

“Let's all hope and pray that hydroxychloroquine is the magic bullet. We should know soon!”

Yes. I think the next 2 to 3 weeks will be critical, and informative. That is why I badgered the wife to stock up more than she wants. Alas we might have another problem , but we will see.

walter said...

New "safer at home" guidelines being announced for L.A. County

Bay Area Guy said...

@Jonathan,

"The place was very quiet - almost deserted. I still think this is all BS. I know that makes me a "kook" of some sort, but that is what I saw."

You're not a kook. There's a huge disconnect between the media headlines and what is actually happening on the ground.

Example: our California Governor is contemplating Martial Law.

Yet, in the largest state of 39 Million people, only 13 deaths from the virus. Without tests, vaccines or treatments. What does that tell you? It tells me the magnitude of hyperbole and ignorant stooges yapping about Italy, is off the charts.

This "pandemic" is part of the ordinary flu season in America. Not me saying it, but the numbers saying it, for those who will listen.

walter said...

Saying no racism will help, this is not a war......ya, ya

Browndog said...

Everyone will remember they told us 2 weeks.

2 weeks.

Achilles said...

Ken B said...
“ The WHO also said there was no evidence of human to human transmission of coronavirus.”

Indeed Achilles that is true. That’s what the Chinese communists told them. Blaming the WHO instead of the Chinese government? It surprises me to see you running interference for the Chinese communists actually.

That is a typically stupid take.

The Chinese and the WHO are on the same side. They have he same goals. They say the same things. They are equally trustworthy.

Just like the UN. Just like the World Bank. The IMF.

All of those international organizations are suspect and agenda driven and are generally going to take China's side against the US.

For obvious reasons.

Jersey Fled said...


Today I’m taking decisive action to stop the spread of #COVID19 by ordering all non-life-sustaining businesses to close by 8 p.m.

What in the world is closing businesses by 8 p.m. supposed to accomplish?

I'll see your 8 p.m. and raise you 7:45

Yancey Ward said...

Why would one go to an ER with flu symptoms? This is, in fact, what a lot of people have been doing since the panic started, Ken B. This sort of behavior, encouraged by the media and a lot of politicians, will spread the infection rather than stop it. The first advice given here was always the right path forward- if you have symptoms, stay the fuck at home isolated from other residents. Only call for help if the symptoms get worse than what you normally get from colds or the flu. One would have to be a complete moron to go to an ER right now with flu symptoms- it is the one place you are most likely to encounter someone with COVID-19.

Rational people follow that advice, irrational ones panic and demand the economy be shut down for 18 months. If we don't come to our senses soon, millions will die across the globe from the depression that is coming if we don't.

walter said...

Garcetti: "Lead with love"
Where's Marianne Williamson?

FullMoon said...

Yancey Ward said...

David-2's comment and link is worth your time. Look at that graph- fully take it in and then think about what it means.

It is evidence of a point I fucking made here until I am blue in the face- the number of positives is roughly proportional to the number of tests being performed. The "explosion" in new cases is a direct result of the increase in testing and discovering a much larger pool of infected- incidentally, if the tests are being run only on those with symptoms, then the negatives are doing the exact same thing, but we don't hear about an explosion of cold and flu sufferers, do we?


Random testing of 10,000 people would be more valuable

rightguy said...

This story by Bezos' WaPo is not surprising ; the biggest winner with a long lockdown is Amazon.

narciso said...

the bigger picture

Narayanan said...

What I read about FDA and CDC thought process and action plan is not inspiring confidence in alphabet soups.

Holding country hostage to bureaucratese.

This is like Iran hostage situation.
Except Trump is the hostage in White House. He can't go anywhere till he fixes this.
Or lose election

Jeff said...

The Chinese government today approved the Japanese flu drug favipiravir as an effective treatment for Covid19. A trial with 340 patients found that: "Patients who were given the medicine in Shenzhen turned negative for the virus after a median of four days after becoming positive, compared with a median of 11 days for those who were not treated with the drug". These are even better results than the French got with chloroquine, and supposedly remdesivir is also getting very good results. So unless all these people are lying, this crisis is going to rachet down dramatically in a few weeks.

We also have the natural selection effect working to make the virus less dangerous. Viruses are always undergoing random mutations. Some of those mutations crowd out others. The winning mutations include ones that lengthen the time period over which an infected individual can transmit the virus to someone else. These tend to be mutations that make the virus less dangerous. Aggressive variants that kill quickly don't have as many opportunities to spread as less dangerous variants. The result is that the virus variant most victims are getting today is not as lethal as what was infecting people in Wuhan two months ago. And the variants people contract two or three months from now will be less dangerous than what is common today.

Tomcc said...

We simply cannot shut down the economy for 12-18 months. Maybe a month. Unemployed people will find ways to meet their needs. Bezos will have to start painting over the "Amazon" signs on their trucks.
The 90-95% of the population that is not sick will become quite restive.

narciso said...

The cdc was chasing woke unicorns and the fda was constrained by 80 year old rules.

robother said...

2.2 million out of 327 million. Versus years of a 50% or more unemployed economy, massive personal and business bankruptcies trillions of dollars of printed money. A life of no live sports or music or dance or socializing of any sort? At some point, life must go on. Sorry for all the chronically sick 70 and 80 and 90 somethings. But social death for all cannot be the price of your survival. I wouldn't demand that of my children or grandchildren as the price of my survival. No one should.

Bill Peschel said...

Also, for those worried about the plus-70 population with compromised immune systems, isn't it possible that they're already aware of this danger? They have every year to worry about it with the flu.

And, yes, we had to worry about this. I don't mind the preventive measures. But I'm no fool. I know the Democrats in November will blame Trump for the economic downturn (even though it was the Democrat governors like Tom Wolf in Pennsylvania who caused it).

They're scorpions; it's what they'll do.

Achilles said...

sinz52 said...
AllenS said: "You're not a kook, Jonathan, you're just someone, like a lot of us, that sees no reason for panic. This is the MSM and their Democrat co-partners trying to diminish our President, but even that panic that they have caused is starting to fall apart"

To the extent that your attitude will cause you to disregard the experts and refuse to employ protective measures like handwashing and social distancing and urge others to do the same, you will help get people like "Aunty Trump" killed.

Trump's supporters are notorious for their "Screw Everybody Else" attitude. But in this case, the "screw" may be death by bacterial pneumonia or multiple organ failure.

Those of us at high risk of death from coronavirus do NOT appreciate your "Screw Everybody Else" attitude in this case. Leave it for such issues as marginal tax rates or government spending. Don't try to apply it to a deadly contagious disease. You will not be forgiven for screwing THAT up.



I just want to point out this person is a piece of shit.

This post is shitty.

You all need to remember that the leftists/globalists have the same goals today they had yesterday.

FullMoon said...

“ The WHO also said there was no evidence of human to human transmission of coronavirus.”

Indeed Achilles that is true. That’s what the Chinese communists told them. Blaming the WHO instead of the Chinese government? It surprises me to see you running interference for the Chinese communists actually.

Almost like seventeen intelligence agencies and Crowdstrike?

Yancey Ward said...

Favipiravir is a ridiculously easy drug to make. One potential problem is that it is possibly a teratogen.

Static Ping said...

As they say, all models are wrong. Some models are useful. What exactly is useful at this point is unclear.

The Washington Post is not a reliable source anymore, unfortunately.

rightguy said...

" Adopting some mitigation strategies to slow the pandemic — such as isolating those suspected of being infected and social distancing of the elderly — only cuts the death toll in half to 1.1 million, although it would also reduce demand for health services by two-thirds."

Where does this 1,100,000 deaths come from? Well not from German data where they currently have 15,363 proven cases of covid-19 and only 41 deaths, for a death rate of 0.287 %.

mockturtle said...

Ken B. observes: Yes. I think the next 2 to 3 weeks will be critical, and informative. That is why I badgered the wife to stock up more than she wants. Alas we might have another problem , but we will see.

My younger daughter is also already on hydroxychloroquine for arthritis. So maybe she'll be safe.

gilbar said...

WSJ:Rethinking the Coronavirus Shutdown
No society can safeguard public health for long at the cost of its economic health.

walter said...

Jeff,
If it can quickly get approved for use/insurance in US, perhaps.

mockturtle said...

My best friend in WA state cut short her recent chemotherapy because it lowers the immune system. It wasn't helping much, anyway. :-(

Achilles said...

Watch the media squirm.

This boomerang is going to hit very hard.

12-18 months is a joke. I give it 2 at most. The bad faith actors are not going to fare well in this.

gilbar said...

But social death for all cannot be the price of your survival. I wouldn't demand that of my children or grandchildren as the price of my survival. No one should.

Keep in mind, the people that are telling us this HAVE NO SOCIAL LIFE
The high point of their life, was going to a concert, that they already had the tickets for; and they ALREADY decided NOT to go
THEY DON'T TRAVEL, THEY DON'T WORK; they just sit at home posting pictures of sunrises

They DEMAND, that the REST of us throw away OUR SOCIAL LIVES, so they can keep their morning runs

Browndog said...

12-18 months is a joke. I give it 2 at most. The bad faith actors are not going to fare well in this.

Unless the dead start piling up like cord wood, mid-April is the breaking point.

BleachBit-and-Hammers said...

Mock-T

:-( sorry.

tim in vermont said...

Someone I know and I can’t hardly believe it just said she was gonna vote for Trump. She can’t picture Biden dealing with this.

I don’t think she is the only one:

https://twitter.com/helloitsthao/status/1240796648642613248

"Where does this 1,100,000 deaths come from?”

Math is hard.

narciso said...

Did you see the mean gurl reaction to chsnel.

FullMoon said...

"WHO spokesman Christian Lindmeier said that while UN health experts are investigating the matter, “we recommend using rather paracetamol [acetaminophen], and do not use ibuprofen as a self-medication.”

But a day later, WHO reversed itself.

"Based on currently available information, WHO does not recommend against the use of ibuprofen,” the organization tweeted.

Angela L. Rasmussen, Ph.D, an associate research scientist at the Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health Center for Infection and Immunity, told Healio Primary Care that “there is no current evidence that ibuprofen specifically impacts COVID-19 disease severity.”
https://www.sfgate.com/science/article/Should-you-take-ibuprofen-if-you-have-COVID-19-15143646.php

walter said...

Gilbar WANTS to GET your ATTENTION!

Jeff said...

walter, in reference to favipiravir, said:
If it can quickly get approved for use/insurance in US, perhaps.

Wait until Trump hears about it. The Chinese have more experience with this virus than anyone else has. How long do you think Trump will put up with the Not Invented Here syndrome being demonstrated daily by the FDA and CDC? I wouldn't want to be the FDA head who has to try to explain to Trump why Chinese patients can get a treatment the most experienced clinicians in the world have found effective, but Americans have to die waiting for the FDA to get off its ass.

Iman said...

The other thing is this --

And this is important --

Martha is looking mighty fine tonight, again.


Leave that poor, put upon cocker spaniel alone!

iowan2 said...

Of course I'm not a denier of the seriousness of this virus but I also agree that certain officials are relishing the taste of the power suddenly thrust upon them and causing them to go berserk. DiBlasio is a good example.

I contend the people of power in the Democrat Party (the media) have decide Cumo is the savior they have been looking for. Cumo has been auditioning for the Democrat to take over for Biden when he gracefully (threatened with purgatory) bows out, to spend more time with his family. The media is liking what they see from Cumo. He comes across as sane, under control, moving forward, not wasting time whining and assigning blame for...stuff... The others they have auditioned are the Governor of Michigan, comes across as a scorned lover. Not competent. Newsom of California, he's working in a different reality than the rest of us. New York City, Mayor De Blasio, is just inches away from challenging President Trump to a pushup contest. No. Democrats (media) have picked their savior, and its Cumo. They are even replaying his press conferences. They really want to expand the coverage he is getting.

Bernie is being knee capped right now, he will soon be withdrawing from the race for the good of the nation. (probably a house in the Bahamas is in his future)

This is kind of off the wall for political realists, but Democrats (media) figure President Trump has this in a landslide, the risk to the party of sliding in a person normally wouldn't make it is slim. The Governor of New York has a good ring to it, and will market very well.
You heard it here first. Cumo taking over for Biden before the convention.

Curious George said...

"And it is unclear whether Americans — who built this country on ideals of independence and individual rights..."

Some people still believe, but lets face it, independence and individual rights are not in lefties DNA. Neither is common sense.

walter said...

I agree Jeff.
Though I was getting a sense from the FDA rep after Trump spoke today that even the Chloroquinian variants already in use already need to be studied very methodologically for dosage etc. Dunno..looked like a bit of foot dragging to me.
I guess it was moved on regardless.
We'll see with this other one. It's one thing for an obscure, non-lethal condition's treatment. But if this is going to be put forth in sky is falling terms...

stevew said...

Not having received an answer I will ask again: what has to happen for our government to give the 'all clear', back to normal signal?

Aunty? Achilles? Yancey? Inga?

I don't have the luxury of chillin' in a hot tub, smoking cigars, or thinking happy, helpful thoughts, or musing on math problems. I need to earn a living. When can I expect to get back to that?

DavidUW said...

100% bullshit.

chickelit said...

sinz52 chided AllenS:To the extent that your attitude will cause you to disregard the experts and refuse to employ protective measures like handwashing and social distancing and urge others to do the same, you will help get people like "Aunty Trump" killed.

AllenS lives on a farm by himself and only ventures to the store to buy the occasional six pac and to replenish food stocks. I doubt your accusation.

Achilles said...

Browndog said...
12-18 months is a joke. I give it 2 at most. The bad faith actors are not going to fare well in this.

Unless the dead start piling up like cord wood, mid-April is the breaking point.

How many deaths would it take to keep the country shut down indefinitely?

230,000?

320,000?

390,000?

1.03 million?

1.21 Million?

2.38 million?(this one is the best)

17.65 million?


Apparently fire kills 130,000 people a year in the US.

Wiki says 810,000 people a year die in the US of suicide. Is it really that many?

Nutritional deficiency jumps in there at 370,000 people.


I know I know 174 people have died so far and you don't know math if you don't think we need to shut everything in the country down right now.

Diarrhea kills 1.7 million people worldwide every year. What a terrible way to die...

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