Althouse: "President Trump and former vice president Joe Biden are in a tightly competitive race for the White House in the November general election, with the president gaining ground..."

March 29, 2020

"President Trump and former vice president Joe Biden are in a tightly competitive race for the White House in the November general election, with the president gaining ground..."

"... on his likely challenger over the past month as the coronavirus pandemic convulses the country, according to a Washington Post-ABC News poll. Trump has moved from what was a seven-point deficit in February to a near tie with Biden today. Among registered voters, Biden is favored by 49 percent and Trump by 47 percent.... Trump is more trusted to handle the economy, while Biden is more trusted to deal with health care. When voters are asked whom they trust more to confront the coronavirus outbreak, the difference between the two is statistically insignificant."

WaPo reports.

The "statistically insignificant" difference on coronavirus is Trump 47%, Biden 43%. It's strange that "health care" is a completely different topic, but you know that "health care" means how to pay for it — insurance. When it comes to coronavirus, the how-to-pay-for-it subject flies out the window. Pay anything! Pay everything! If we don't fix this, we've got nothing!

Anyway, it's a strange matter to compare Trump and Biden on coronavirus. Trump is actively engaged in solving the problem, and we've got to be hoping he'll be effective, though I suspect there are some Americans who care more about installing the Democratic Party into power for the next 4 years than they care about getting us out of this jam. But the idea of Biden stepping in... that's not even something that can happen for 10 months. Who can think about Biden somehow doing better than Trump 10 months from now?!

84 comments:

tim maguire said...: Interesting that a 2 point Biden advantage gets pointed out but a 4 point Trump advantage gets dismissed as statistically insignificant. But, of course, WaPo.

The Biden-Trump divide on the virus points up a problem we often face but that few people (especially among journalists) seem cognizant of—we are comparing one person's actual performance against another person’s imagined performance.; 3/29/20, 6:43 AM
gilbar said...: Biden is more trusted to deal with health care.
When voters are asked whom they trust more to confront the coronavirus outbreak, the difference between the two is statistically insignificant."The "statistically insignificant" difference on coronavirus is Trump 47%, Biden 43%.

so,
if 49-47 is 'a near tie'
and 47-43 is 'statistically insignificant'
what does "Biden is more trusted to deal with health care" mean?; 3/29/20, 6:58 AM
Fernandinande said...: Pay anything! Pay everything! If we don't fix this, we've got nothing!

Who said that?

They passed a ~ $2 trillion dollar pork bill, adding about 10% to the national debt, not an anything/everything pork bill which added anything and everything to the debt.; 3/29/20, 6:59 AM
stevew said...: I can't help but think, "There's an existential threat to our civilization going on and you're doing political polling about an election 10 months from now?!?!". Or in other words, who but anti-Trumpers care about this shit at this point? Does anyone really think these polls are predictive of what we will see in the voting in November?; 3/29/20, 7:03 AM
rehajm said...: Porcine cosmetology.; 3/29/20, 7:04 AM
Kalli Davis said...: Any poll of registered voters, is simply invalid.; 3/29/20, 7:05 AM
rehajm said...: I mean how much of the electorate will still be around to vote in November?; 3/29/20, 7:05 AM
Mark said...: I have seen no one of social media posting about this political horse race stuff in the last week.

I bet there are 50 times more posts about how yesterday was a 500+ death day in the US.; 3/29/20, 7:07 AM
Temujin said...: Every time the press tries to prop Biden up, by reminding us he's still around, I'm reminded of the hideous movie, "Weekend at Bernie's".

Still wondering when or if the press will deal with the accusations from Tara Reade. They will when it's time to bring in Andrew Cuomo.; 3/29/20, 7:14 AM
dreams said...: Tightly competitive race...LOL.; 3/29/20, 7:16 AM
stevew said...: Every time the press tries to prop Biden up, by reminding us he's still around, I'm reminded of the hideous movie, "Weekend at Bernie's".

Thank you, truly LOL for me this morning. So damn true.; 3/29/20, 7:17 AM
sykes.1 said...: Biden's senile dementia is progressing fairly rapidly, and it is unlikely he will be the Democrat nominee. Cuomo is their best choice, but a Bernie Bro revolt would likely squash his campaign.

It is hard to see how Trump loses in November, unless he gets COVID-19.; 3/29/20, 7:23 AM
Fernandinande said...: Try an ngram on lockdown.

Before about 1980, certainly before 1960, it almost always referred to a mechanical device, like a "lockdown lever"; after 1980, when it started getting far more popular, it referred to caging groups of people.; 3/29/20, 7:28 AM
stlcdr said...: Blogger rehajm said...
I mean how much of the electorate will still be around to vote in November?

3/29/20, 7:05 AM

Oh you mean that causation (sic) between democrat centers and virus hotspots?; 3/29/20, 7:30 AM
AllenS said...: "President Trump and former vice president Joe Biden are in a tightly competitive race for the White House"

I'm not seeing it.; 3/29/20, 7:31 AM
JPS said...: Temujin,

"I'm reminded of the hideous movie, 'Weekend at Bernie's'."

Hideous?

I've come to expect better from you than this.; 3/29/20, 7:35 AM
rehajm said...: In Weekend at Bernies they had occasional control of their stiff.; 3/29/20, 7:37 AM
Shouting Thomas said...: Politicians do not “deal with health care.”

They have gotten themselves involved in health insurance.

Whether this has a positive or negative impact on health care is debatable.; 3/29/20, 7:39 AM
Ryan said...: From the survey text:

"Interviewers called landlines and cellular phone numbers, first requesting to speak with the **youngest** adult male or female at home."

The surveyors always asked for the "youngest" adult? How is this a fair survey?!; 3/29/20, 7:42 AM
Ann Althouse said...: "Who said that?"

America.; 3/29/20, 7:44 AM
MayBee said...: Are the polling call centers considered essential businesses?; 3/29/20, 7:52 AM
Wilbur said...: "Who can think about Biden somehow doing better than Trump 10 months from now?!"

Shall we start with the Leftist and LLR bloggers here? Or shall we sample our friends at oh, let's say, HuffPo, Salon, Slate, et al?

I realize the question was rhetorical, but truly there's a good number of people in this country who think of little else. And have for three years.; 3/29/20, 7:52 AM
Fernandinande said...: The surveyors always asked for the "youngest" adult? How is this a fair survey?!

Good catch; I wondered how they came up with those suspicious figures.

The fun part is Whappo's false claim that it was a random sample, when it obviously wasn't.; 3/29/20, 7:52 AM
Ryan said...: They bias the methodology, but still claim that the sample of phone numbers is random.; 3/29/20, 7:59 AM
Sebastian said...: "it's a strange matter to compare"

Especially for someone who had already dismissed Slow Joe.

Sure, Dems want to get back in power, and Joe is vehicle, but which Dem thinks the actual Joe is actually a better person to handle current challenges?; 3/29/20, 8:03 AM
WisRich said...: Ryan said...
From the survey text:

"Interviewers called landlines and cellular phone numbers, first requesting to speak with the **youngest** adult male or female at home."

The surveyors always asked for the "youngest" adult? How is this a fair survey?!

3/29/20, 7:42 AM
-------

Holy Smokes. Bias much?

Just shoot'n darts here but I'm guessing there was an initial poll that showed very positive results for Trump. They scraped it and started all over, asking for the youngest adult.; 3/29/20, 8:06 AM
Fernandinande said...: "Who said that?"
America.

Some nervous old guy on twitter is not America.

This is from NPR, so take it with two grains of salt:

Poll: As Coronavirus Spreads, Fewer Americans See Pandemic As A Real Threat (Mar 17)

Here's one from our reliable friends at the Whappo:

"Poll finds recession fears high amid layoffs and pay cuts from coronavirus fallout" (Mar 26)
which sounds like the opposite of "pay anything".; 3/29/20, 8:13 AM
tim maguire said...: Fernandistein said...
The surveyors always asked for the "youngest" adult? How is this a fair survey?!

Good catch; I wondered how they came up with those suspicious figures.

The WaPo highlights the Fox survey because they think, how awful for Trump that even the right-wing outlets show a big Biden lead! But Fox is a left-wing outlier in RCP polling. I advance no theories as to why, I just note that they are.; 3/29/20, 8:14 AM
Skeptical Voter said...: Re the WaPo article. I'd say that's one way to look at the possible outcome--not that I agree with the conclusion, but then, as always, one's mileage might vary.

What did catch my eye was the image of Biden "stepping in". Stepping in what? Biden tends to step in to a lot of things, not all of them good. That's an unfortunate choice of images there at the "WaPoo".; 3/29/20, 8:22 AM
Howard said...: Stop the world I want to get off; 3/29/20, 8:32 AM
Howard said...: I'm just glad Trump is not tanking right now can you imagine how bad the pandemic would be if that was the case?; 3/29/20, 8:33 AM
Drago said...: Tim Maguire: "But Fox is a left-wing outlier in RCP polling. I advance no theories as to why, I just note that they are."

Stirewalt and the Fox NeverTrump contingent of pollsters there have been unleashed by the Murdoch sons and Fox Board members like Paul Ryan to accelerate the move to MSM-mode for November.

Lachlan Murdoch has offered up continual and typically liberal criticisms of Fox News for years, and now he is literally in charge there.

James Murdoch was all over the place in 2018/2019 looking to purchase a lefty media property.

This is all neither surprising nor unexpected.

Its simply another establishment move to choke off all alternative messaging to the establishment line, like Googles and Facebooks algorithms and twitters suspension/banning policies which have been systematically choking off Trump supporters.

Its a power they have, why wouldn't they use it?; 3/29/20, 8:34 AM
Jaq said...: Inflation is coming. Adjust your portfolio accordingly. Inflation can evaporate the value of those bonds that have helped you weather the storm thus far. Eventually in a crisis like this, there is no safe haven. Maybe agricultural land. The Treasury has stepped in to fix the toilet paper crisis by turning our currency into TP. Nobody wants to handle it anyway, so good call.

Still, ChiCom virus is a big hit, and big hits mean sacrifices and pain. Pretending that it would have been fine to let this virus burn through the population killing the weak or unlucky is denial of the realities of democracy.; 3/29/20, 8:37 AM
Howard said...: Drago sounds like a hippie leader from the late 1960s. "The Establishment silences alternative voices". Boo hoo. Cut your hair, take a bath and get a job.; 3/29/20, 8:44 AM
Drago said...: Howard: "Drago sounds like a hippie leader from the late 1960s. "The Establishment silences alternative voices". Boo hoo. Cut your hair, take a bath and get a job."

Who is complaining?

There has been a generational change of leadership at an organization (Fox News). So there is a significant change in strategic vision and strategic intent. No different than a GE going from Welch to Immelt.

Business strategic changes and execution of strategy has been the primary focus of my career for about 15 years. Changes in business strategy is how I get alot of work! Why would I complain.; 3/29/20, 8:50 AM
Drago said...: I am not concerned with the younger Murdochs taking Fox News where they want to. If and when the sons make Fox into another CNN-lite Network (they wont go that far really, but pretty far...), another conservative network will kickoff to serve that market.

Industries evolve and change.

Not exactly shocking.; 3/29/20, 8:53 AM
narciso said...: well oann and newsmax have some reach, the Murdoch boys done tupoleved their boat,; 3/29/20, 8:57 AM
Drago said...: narciso: "well oann and newsmax have some reach, the Murdoch boys done tupoleved their boat,"

The Murdoch sons are typical wealth-creator's follow on generation types.

No no no, not 3rd and 4th generation f Joeseph Kennedy types!

The Murdoch's have been raised in a very liberal stream so thats what they will recreate wherever they go. Again, this means there will be new opportunities for other entrepreneurs to start poaching and gaining market share with an underserved market.

Kind of exciting for some "younger" media types.

Given cable/satellite industry fundamentals, you will almost certainly first see a major conservative competitor to Fox rising via platform.; 3/29/20, 9:05 AM
narciso said...: well the same pattern happened with lucepress and hearst, the o'sullivan rules obtains almost exclusely, also see national review; 3/29/20, 9:08 AM
Mike Sylwester said...: Democracy Dies in Darkness!; 3/29/20, 9:09 AM
Mr. T. said...: It's awfully early to be trusting polls based on registered and especially unregistered voters. The pandemic is still in it's infancy-more people will die yet. And that comprises the majority voting bloc of democrat voters.; 3/29/20, 9:13 AM
Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...: Drago said...
The Murdoch sons are typical wealth-creator's follow on generation types.

Like Trump. Only he bankrupted the company - and then the nation.; 3/29/20, 9:19 AM
narciso said...: the Barclay bros, took the telegraph from conrad black, they are kind of meh, they also are involved with the qataris,; 3/29/20, 9:22 AM
Sam L. said...: " Who can think about Biden somehow doing better than Trump 10 months from now?!" Joe Biden can. Maybe. When he can think.; 3/29/20, 9:24 AM
Sam L. said...: Who can think about Biden somehow doing better than Trump 10 months from now?!
Joe Biden can. Maybe.; 3/29/20, 9:25 AM
Lurker21 said...: The only president in the last 40 years who didn't bankrupt the country was Clinton, and that had a lot to do with the Republican Congress.; 3/29/20, 9:27 AM
Lurker21 said...: Biden is a figurehead. If he's the nominee, surrogates will come forward and we'll find out who will really be in charge. It wouldn't be the wife. That happened with Wilson because he was able to keep his condition secret, but in this case, everybody can see what's up with Joe.

If Biden's nominated and stands any chance of winning, who his cabinet and staff will be will slip out. It will be made public enough to reassure people who pay attention to politics, but not public enough or definite enough that it becomes an issue. Then we will have an idea of who will really be in charge.

I would stay away from the "senile dementia" and go with "cognitive impairment." Diagnosis of people one hasn't examined is still uncool, especially if one isn't a doctor. But that's just me.; 3/29/20, 9:35 AM
Gahrie said...: though I suspect there are some Americans who care more about installing the Democratic Party into power for the next 4 years than they care about getting us out of this jam.

You suspect?!? What was your first clue...Pelosi blocking the relief bill three separate times to load it up with more Democratic wish lists? What would the Democrats have to do for you to move from suspicion to certainty?

But the idea of Biden stepping in... that's not even something that can happen for 10 months.

And the fact that the Democrats are hoping for this rather than recoiling from the prospect in terror shows you just how badly they want to return the Democratic Party to power. At this point what they are doing to Biden is simple cruelty.

Who can think about Biden somehow doing better than Trump 10 months from now?!

The Democratic Party is engaged in wishful thinking and the MSM is outright fantasizing about it.; 3/29/20, 9:36 AM
Mark said...: Biden is more trusted to deal with health care.

And that is due to nothing more than obstinate partisan bias.

There is NOTHING objective in what Biden has said or done or advocated in the last two to three months that would commend him to being trusted with a single aspirin, much less oversight of the virus crisis or the entire health care system.; 3/29/20, 9:46 AM
Darrell said...: Althouse asks why isn't Joe up be fifty points?
In her unique way.

Meanwhile, the average Democrat sings this song--

People love Joe; 3/29/20, 9:48 AM
chickelit said...: Our brave media is willing to push or pull Biden over the finish line any way they can.; 3/29/20, 9:59 AM
narciso said...: the internals; 3/29/20, 10:00 AM
chickelit said...: Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...Like Trump. Only he bankrupted the company - and then the nation.

♪ I shouted out "who bankrupted the economy -- well after all it was you and me." ♪; 3/29/20, 10:02 AM
Ray said...: The Democrats have figured out the best way to flip Republican voters into Democrat voters is to wait for them to die. COVD-19 is the new GOTV strategy for the Dems.; 3/29/20, 10:07 AM
Gahrie said...: Here's a question: What wouldn't the Democrats do to regain power? They've already started a civil war...; 3/29/20, 10:07 AM
Drago said...: ARM: "Like Trump. Only he bankrupted the company - and then the nation."

LOL

There is no "THE company"

On the day he was elected Trump's tax forms listed over 530 distinct business entities owned/operated/controlling interest in.

Over 530.

This has been mentioned before, but you are here to lie and push Chinese and Iranian propaganda,which you do gleefully.

So, just another day.

I'm still waiting for to explain how there are no more ChiCom flu cases in Wuhan..
(Spoiler: we already know); 3/29/20, 10:08 AM
Darkisland said...: Fernandistein said...

They passed a ~ $2 trillion dollar pork bill, adding about 10% to the national debt,

Did it add to the national debt? If the issued $2tr in bonds it did. But who bought the bonds and at what interest rate?

What I think I heard, but am not sure and am asking here, is that they "printed" an additional $2tr.

Normally this would arise inflation but:

Inflation was already close to zero

This situation is already deflationary

When we bounce back, we'll be able to grow our way out of it.

So does anyone know where the money came from? Creation or debt?

John Henry; 3/29/20, 10:08 AM
Gahrie said...: The Democrats have figured out the best way to flip Republican voters into Democrat voters is to wait for them to die.

Reportedly lots of Republican voters become Democratic voters after they die.; 3/29/20, 10:08 AM
stevew said...: The only president in the last 40 years who didn't bankrupt the country was Clinton, and that had a lot to do with the Republican Congress.

If that's true, and I think it is, then I'm voting for Crazy Uncle Joe and a Republican Congress.; 3/29/20, 10:09 AM
narciso said...: well it's more like alchemy at this point, or monetary magic, it didn't really work with Boehner or ryan, did it, they just watched the sequester tear into the military, while they seed podded the bureaucracy at the cdc at the fda at justice,; 3/29/20, 10:12 AM
Darkisland said...: I wonder how many Trump supporters tell pollsters "Biden" for any of the following reasons

1) some of us believe political polls are evil and we have a moral obligation to lie to pollsters

2) we don't want pollsters thinking we are one of those people

3) fear of our name getting out as a Trump supporter. Thanks, fascists (a/k/a progressives) this fear is on you with your doxxing, attacks, assaults et al.

I think any poling data on Trump vs biden is so corrupted as to be worthless.

That doesn't include all the screwing around that pollsters normally do anyway to prop up their guy.

Don't get cocky but remember we are in God's pocket.

To conflate the blogfather and JoeBen.

John Henry; 3/29/20, 10:18 AM
narciso said...: sharp as a tack; 3/29/20, 10:23 AM
Mark said...: Like Trump. Only he bankrupted the company - and then the nation.

No doubt that "Trump lied, people died" isn't too far behind in Dem/progressive circles.; 3/29/20, 10:30 AM
Mark said...: So does anyone know where the money came from?

Hasbro, ever since they took over Parker Brothers.; 3/29/20, 10:32 AM
madAsHell said...: Biden is a figurehead.

So was Hillary's House Boy, Obama!; 3/29/20, 10:35 AM
Calypso Facto said...: stevew said ... "If that's true, and I think it is, then I'm voting for Crazy Uncle Joe and a Republican Congress."

To rewrite Lloyd Benson, "Senator Biden, I served with Bill Clinton. I knew Bill Clinton. Bill Clinton was a friend of mine. And other than some digital penetration indiscretions, Senator, you're no Bill Clinton!"; 3/29/20, 10:48 AM
Drago said...: Mark: "No doubt that "Trump lied, people died" isn't too far behind in Dem/progressive circles."

Its already here.

In fact, it explains what LLR-lefty Chuck was doing bending backwards justifying Gov Whitmer's threats against MI doctors and falsely claiming Trump was withholding aid to MI (which she walked back late yesterday on CNN).

Dem Senator Murphy blurted it out via twitter (and I kid you not): Michigan is the new Ukraine!

By June Dems will call for investigations into the dems new hoax scandal: non-existent Trump admin refusal to provide equipment to dem governors.

Already some underlings in the FDA/CDC are no doubt busy working with Pelosi/Schiff to creat a faux papertrail to facilitate this.

Lots of Vindmans/Ciaramellas running around there.; 3/29/20, 10:50 AM
Gunner said...: Lemme guess: The WaPo commenters are saying all the bad Biden polls are Putin/Nazi/Klan propaganda?; 3/29/20, 10:59 AM
Ken B said...: Stuck on stupid.

I guess now we know who will win if nothing important happens in the next 6 months ...; 3/29/20, 11:00 AM
hombre said...: My son the Portlandian Democrat activist sums it up: “We know Biden’s unfit, but he can surround himself with good people.”

I know. I know. Where did I go wrong? When I asked him, “How can you be a Democrat?” He answered, “You were an elected Democrat for much of your adult life.”

My compound question should be, “ How can you still be a Democrat and how can you be willing to put an apparently demented old grifter in the White House?” I don’t ask because the answer will lead me back to, “Where did I go wrong?”; 3/29/20, 11:06 AM
hombre said...: Blogger stevew said...
“I can't help but think, "There's an existential threat to our civilization going on and you're doing political polling about an election 10 months from now?!?”

They are not interested in the threat. They are only interested in how much deeper their journalistic “standards” will have to go into the cesspool to put a Democrat in the White House.

“Coronavirus, meh! We’re choosing a President here.”; 3/29/20, 11:13 AM
The Cracker Emcee Refulgent said...: "There's an existential threat to our civilization going on and you're doing political polling about an election 10 months from now?!?”

Well, the obvious way to answer questions like this is to discount the premise.; 3/29/20, 11:40 AM
Drago said...: Gunner: "Lemme guess: The WaPo commenters are saying all the bad Biden polls are Putin/Nazi/Klan propaganda?"

Yep.

Every single time.

Everyone complaining about Biden is an angry Bernie bro/russian bot.; 3/29/20, 11:51 AM
Drago said...: Btw, Nancy Pelosi, just this morning, said Trump was killing people and watergate-styke impeachment is back in the table and will be driven by House committees in After-Action "investigations".

Precisely as predicted. By June the dems will crank this up.

This is THE 2020 Dem/LLR Campaign Strategy.; 3/29/20, 12:11 PM
chickelit said...: Drago said...Btw, Nancy Pelosi, just this morning, said Trump was killing people and watergate-styke impeachment is back in the table and will be driven by House committees in After-Action "investigations".

God forbid that wretched woman get any more real power. She is pure partisan leadership which is exactly what we need less of.; 3/29/20, 1:35 PM
Ken B said...: People not taking the virus seriously need to think about how quickly Nancy Pelosi could become president.; 3/29/20, 3:24 PM
Ray - SoCal said...: Seems Fox used a left wing outfit for their polls that oversampled Democrats.

See their new SOP.
https://www.pacificpundit.com/2020/03/26/fox-news-poll-with-d9-sample-still-shows-majority-approve-of-trump-handling-of-coronavirus/; 3/29/20, 3:38 PM
Drago said...: Ken B: "People not taking the virus seriously need to think about how quickly Nancy Pelosi could become president."

Why isn't Nancy at risk?; 3/29/20, 3:40 PM
Scott M said...: The race wasn't "tightly competitive" before all this started. It's certainly less so now. Anyone the DNC puts up will get shellacked and they know it. This explains Biden's frontrunnership extremely well if you're looking through Dole-tinted glasses.; 3/29/20, 3:51 PM
gilbar said...: "There's an existential threat to our civilization going on
?????
is there? i don't mean to be a naysayer; but, is there?

What IS an existential threat to our civilization?
Let's play the What If game!
What IF?
we were Britain, and we had nearly TWENTY THOUSAND people die; in ONE day; before Sunset?
Would THAT be an 'existential threat to our civilization'? or would it be
THE FIRST DAY of the battle of the Somme?

What IF; by the time TWO more years pasted, about THIRTY MILLION MORE people died
Would THAT be a 'existential threat to our civilization'? or would it be some war that MOST people in the world only know about because there Must Have Been a First world war, if there was a Second; 3/29/20, 5:17 PM
Gk1 said...: Joe Rogan on Joe Biden. "Trump is going to eat him alive!" I sure hope not. Diseased bats started this whole virus thing. Imagine eating a dementia patient?

https://thehill.com/homenews/media/489915-joe-rogan-on-joe-biden-trump-is-going-to-eat-him-alive; 3/29/20, 5:26 PM
GingerBeer said...: I'm still inclined to believe the Ds will pull a Torricelli and go w/ a Cuomo/Klobachur ticket. But as long as WaPo and such offer up these cantations, the Ds will remain convinced that they will replace Trump w/ their very own Gov. William J. Le Petomane. The press sees its job as an adversary to Rs, and advancing the Ds narrative, That's how they both ended up w/ surprises like November 9th, 2016.; 3/29/20, 7:53 PM
Anonymous said...: @ARM:Like Trump. Only he bankrupted the company - and then the nation.

Not this arrant horse shit again. Trump has undertaken something on the order of 500 separate business enterprises in his life, employing tens of thousands of people, and most of them have been profitable. Four or five of them failed and went bust. That's a record that beats any entrepreneur I ever heard of.; 3/29/20, 11:11 PM
jeff said...: That cant possibly be true. No way that high a percentage want someone whos mind is going to be president. They must be answering based on anyone not trump who gets the vp nod.; 3/29/20, 11:58 PM