Althouse: New snow.

March 18, 2020

New snow.

742C31B2-3611-467A-8D79-2BFC9453D863_1_201_a

28 comments:

Bushman of the Kohlrabi said...: What happened to the bus? Did Evers force you to remove that picture after having the driver and passengers arrested for congregating in unacceptable numbers on mass transportation?; 3/18/20, 1:44 PM
Dave Begley said...: The Madness of Crowds and Apocalypse Now.

The first phrase is from a book written over 300 years ago about the Dutch tulip bulb panic and the second is the title of Coppola's Vietnam movie. We've reached that point this week.
America is in a total panic. While I'm not downplaying the seriousness of this matter, there has been a whole lot of over-reaction which has lead to unnecessary fear.

My strong advice is to turn off the TV. TV isn't helping one bit. Partisan attacks on the President don't help. I understand that many people hate the President, but he won the election fair and square. If you don't like him, vote him out in November. For now, either shut up or stop attacking him. We only have one President at a time.

Whatever one thinks of Trump, he banned travel from China very early on. That saved us all sorts of extra grief. It is specially worth noting that he did so despite being impeached at the time and being attacked as a racist.

Here's some perspective. About 125 people in the entire US have died from the Wuhan virus. That's in a country of over 330 million. That means nearly everyone has recovered and the absolute number of cases is still very small; not even 20 in the state of Nebraska. And of the people who have died, many of them were elderly or had pre-existing conditions.

This thing is entirely on the Chinese government. It ignored it for over two months and allowed it to spread; especially to Iran and Italy. China needs to pay a very steep price for inflicting this on the world. Again whatever you think of Trump, he's the guy to exact some justice from the Chinese government. America First!; 3/18/20, 1:44 PM
Dave Begley said...: And I would add that Warren Buffett became the richest person ever by buying when others were fearful and selling. He's buying now with his $120 billion in cash.

The amazing thing is you can have Uncle Warren manage your money for free. Just buy BRK.B. It is on sale right now. Would you buy more steak if the price was cut 20% or more? Warren does. And his grandfather used to own a grocery store at 50th and Underwood in Omaha.; 3/18/20, 1:48 PM
Bushman of the Kohlrabi said...: Evers = Hitler; 3/18/20, 1:50 PM
rehajm said...: Friend of the office is being deployed for National Guard duty. Pack up for 30 days and 'Riot duty' is all they were told...; 3/18/20, 1:58 PM
Carol said...: Has Mike K been around lately?

I wonder if he's been pressed into service.; 3/18/20, 2:01 PM
rehajm said...: Warren Buffett became the richest person ever by buying when others were fearful and selling. He's buying now with his $120 billion in cash.

We've been assessing how much cash they people have to deploy vs how much they'll need for capital calls at various market levels. There was a little buying a few days ago but now mostly waiting for entry points. 'Not yet' is the current consensus...; 3/18/20, 2:02 PM
Dave Begley said...: rehajm:

One can never call a bottom. I'm buying daily. Averaging.; 3/18/20, 2:06 PM
traditionalguy said...: Went to Lowe’s today. They now have every item in the website designated to the Isle and the Bay( a 5 foot section) so you can find them without a human assistant. Very impressive.; 3/18/20, 2:08 PM
Yancey Ward said...: I put in another 5% allocation to the market after lunch today- 85% still to go, if I actually get the chance. Next buying point for me will be around Dow 17,000 if it drops that far, which I think likely at some point in the next week.

A lot of stocks are being sold like the world is going to end- the things actually holding the market up right now are the still the tech stocks, pharmaceuticals, and utilities. Some of the banks, especially the regional ones are just about being given away right now. The world isn't going to end.; 3/18/20, 2:10 PM
Yancey Ward said...: Though, I expect a repeat of Monday's last hour action- won't be surprised to see the Dow finish again 3000 down, but more like 2500 down- right now trying to fight back to just 1500 down.; 3/18/20, 2:13 PM
mandrewa said...: South Korea continues to lead the world in Wuhan coronavirus testing per capita. As of today they have done at least 280,000 tests. Of those 280,000 people tested, 8413, or 3% of those tested, had the coronavirus.

It is none-the-less hard to estimate what percentage of the South Korean population is infected. Many of the 280,000 tested were surely tested because they were sick, and on the Diamond Princess cruise ship, in contrast, half the people that had it had no symptoms.

So far the South Korean fatality rate for the Wuhan coronavirus is 1%. That probably will increase because only 1540 of the 8413 that were confirmed to have it have fully recovered as of today, and surely some of the 6789 that are still sick will die.

On the other hand, there are two reasons for doubting that the South Korean fatality rate is really above 1%. The most important is that it is unlikely that everyone that has the Wuhan coronavirus in South Korea has been identified. And of those not yet identified most are probably in the symptom-free camp and therefore are not going to die. If and when those people are identified and added to the confirmed cases, the fatality rate will drop. Second, South Korea has a sophisticated medical community that is learning how to treat this and they are getting better with time.

There is more data from South Korea, on a per capita basis, than from any other country. But the Diamond Princess cruise ship data is unique in that, so far as I know, it is the only community where we know the complete coronavirus status and fate of an almost random group of people.; 3/18/20, 2:17 PM
BarrySanders20 said...: "And I would add that Warren Buffett became the richest person ever by buying when others were fearful and selling."

Dangerous to catch a falling knife, but I think we will bottom soon. Wife owns some BKRB.

I am looking at things to buy. I am spooked by the entertainment/travel sector even though these are definitely on sale now. Looking at Carnival Cruise (CCL), Mariott (MAR), Delta Airlines (DAL), and Southwest Air (LUV). Way too much uncertainty there for me to do anything, but may "buy me some LUV". They serve mostly domestic travel, and this will bounce back first when people are flying again.

Consumer goods: Pepsi (PEP), CocaCola (KO) and US Food (USFD). And AMZN, which is more than just goods. Maybe nibble these, and will buy AMZN.

Energy: Chevron (CVX), ExxonMobil (XOM) and Schumberger (SLB)(drilling services). I already own Kinder Morgan (pipelines) and got killed like everyone else. Too skittish to add any of these with Saudi-Russia still pumping and the existing new green deal/climate change alarmist pressures on oil. Look at how bad SLB, which is a good company, got creamed this year.

Telecom: Verizon (VZ), AT&T (T), Sprint (S), and Netflix (NFLX). Will but significant shares on two or more of these soon.

Tech: Apple (AAPL) has huge cash surplus and likely will buy something big (maybe DIS?), well positioned for 5G, and everyone needs their phones more than ever. Microsoft (MSFT) dominates software and can acquire smaller innovators. Will be buying these two soon, but not yet; 3/18/20, 2:19 PM
Ann Althouse said...: "What happened to the bus?"

I put up the wrong picture. I'll be putting up the bus later. The pictures tell a story. First, the robin...; 3/18/20, 2:20 PM
BarrySanders20 said...: Oh, and Kroger (KR) too. Nobody buying at restaurants means more people buying at the grocery store.; 3/18/20, 2:21 PM
Freeman Hunt said...: The market will take off like a rocket when this ends.; 3/18/20, 2:26 PM
rehajm said...: One can never call a bottom

No one we work with is looking to 'call a bottom'...; 3/18/20, 2:30 PM
rehajm said...: CNBC talking heads are on in the background. We're learning more than we wanted to know about the inside everyone's apartments and houses.; 3/18/20, 2:33 PM
Yancey Ward said...: Mandrewa, the last week South Korea has averaged 4 deaths more each day. If you extrapolate out to the next two weeks with that same rate, South Korea will have 140 total deaths at the end of the next two weeks. They will like have in the range of 7000 recovered by the end of two weeks, for a case fatality rate of about 2%.

As you note, we will likely not know how many South Koreans had the disease but were never tested while they had it for at least a year or more, and maybe never- antibodies can be tested for when the crisis ends to get a good estimate. I think a conservative estimate is the testing found 1/5 of the infected since testing started, and that about 25% of the coronavirus deaths have been missed since testing started. So, I doubt the true case fatality rate is above 0.5%, and probably lower. We might eventually get an answer when this is analyzed statistically next year.; 3/18/20, 2:34 PM
tcrosse said...: 8:15 this AM at my neighborhood Kroger the checkout line reached the back of the store, and the bread section was empty. Left empty handed, went home and placed an online order to be picked up in a few days.; 3/18/20, 2:34 PM
Yancey Ward said...: Mandrewa, the last week South Korea has averaged 4 deaths more each day. If you extrapolate out to the next two weeks with that same rate, South Korea will have 140 total deaths at the end of the next two weeks. They will like have in the range of 7000 recovered by the end of two weeks, for a case fatality rate of about 2%.

As you note, we will likely not know how many South Koreans had the disease but were never tested while they had it for at least a year or more, and maybe never- antibodies can be tested for when the crisis ends to get a good estimate. I think a conservative estimate is the testing found 1/5 of the infected since testing started, and that about 25% of the coronavirus deaths have been missed since testing started. So, I doubt the true case fatality rate is above 0.5%, and probably lower. We might eventually get an answer when this is analyzed statistically next year.; 3/18/20, 2:35 PM
Michael K said...: Blogger Carol said...
Has Mike K been around lately?

I wonder if he's been pressed into service.

Nope. Attended a dinner party last night with everyone staying a few feet away from each other,

My wife is very high risk so I do the shopping. I'm just as happy to be long retired. I did get hydroxychloroquine for her and for my paramedic son who is diabetic.

I suspect the panic will subside with another few days' experience. 17 cases in AZ so far and 4 in Pima County.

I estimate mortality will end up below 1% with those over 80 at maybe 10%. Lots of healthy 80 year olds these days.; 3/18/20, 3:13 PM
Curious George said...: "Bushman of the Kohlrabi said...
What happened to the bus? Did Evers force you to remove that picture after having the driver and passengers arrested for congregating in unacceptable numbers on mass transportation?"

You haven't seen a Madison bus. Under 10? Not a problem. More likely empty.; 3/18/20, 3:25 PM
Kansas Scout said...: Lovely photos Ann.; 3/18/20, 3:30 PM
Maillard Reactionary said...: I just wrote to my Vanguard guy to ask if they were planning to do some rebalancing to take advantage of this down market. (They normally rebalance our account quarterly.)

Even if the market takes off more like an egret than a rocket, it's still good to buy things when they're cheap.

Personally, I've done well just investing in S&P 500 index funds. When in doubt, buy the US economy. It is so well-positioned, so well diversified, that even the politicians can't screw it up completely or for very long. Who's going to compete with us? China? Russia? The EU (what's left of it)?

Fear not, all will be well by and by.; 3/18/20, 3:36 PM
Marc in Eugene said...: Lovely photograph! I could whine about there not having been appreciable snowfall here all winter but it's a beautiful day and so will enjoy Madison's instead.

My expedition on the city bus went well, although the number of passengers is in fact very reduced. I counted 13 on the two buses to Walmart and 8 on the two returning. The only other passenger on the final bus had been in a residential treatment facility for who knows how long; he asked the bus driver why the station was so deserted-- really did seem to be ignorant of things plague. Anyway, the temple of commerce had five of the seven items on my list available, so I was satisfied. Had intended to spend time investigating just which shelves were empty etc (apart from their own brand of sliced bread, e.g., there was a vast emptiness) but I decided prudence dictated getting out as rapidly as possible. Am having to stick my head in at Safeway tomorrow, so will see what the atmosphere there is like; no rushing about in panic this morning (unlike last Thursday) but too many of the faces were sullen.

The bus system has decided to make everyone board from the back, forgoing collection of fares, in order to reduce the drivers' exposure, although I don't see that measure showing up on their website yet. The wheelchair ramps are of course all in the front.; 3/18/20, 3:44 PM
Calypso Facto said...: Curious George said: "You haven't seen a Madison bus. Under 10? Not a problem. More likely empty."

"Hauling air" was the term my brother coined for it, many years before the panicdemic.; 3/18/20, 4:57 PM
JML said...: My son and his wife are leaving WI Friday. They are moving here to New Mexico. Land of green and red chili and lots of sun. They are not taking the bus to get here.; 3/18/20, 6:09 PM