March 22, 2020

"David Lat is in critical condition and has been has been put on a ventilator at NYU Langone Hospital in Manhattan, where his fight with the coronavirus has taken a turn for the worse..."

"... according to his husband, Zachary Baron Shemtob.... Asked if the doctors had talked about or know Lat’s prognosis, Shemtob responded, 'It’s a bit much for me right now.... I just want to folks to know that he is so strong; he is hanging in there, and we are praying he’ll recover.... Any thoughts or prayers people have are much appreciated... Please be vigilant and careful as possible....It’s really important to get that message'...."

Law.com reports.

Very sad!

208 comments:

1 – 200 of 208   Newer›   Newest»
Stay Safe said...

Many commentators to this blog say that tens of thousands of people like David should be allowed to parish instead of disrupting the economy.

Jessica said...

This did make me very sad. I am praying for his full and speedy recovery.

Stay Safe said...

Those who down played this crisis and argued that we could just go along on our normal way will be bearing a great deal of shame.

exhelodrvr1 said...

"Many commentators to this blog say that tens of thousands of people like David should be allowed to parish instead of disrupting the economy."

Yeah. That's exactly what they are saying!

alanc709 said...

I know it's a typo, but of course many commentators here would agree about church attendance. Or did you mean PERISH?

JPS said...

Unknown, I don’t want anyone to parish, let alone perish, if we can reasonably help them. But I think the technique of imputing views to people so you can then get angry at them is getting old. I suggest waiting til someone actually writes something you disagree with, then arguing with it.

I hope Lat will be OK.

PJ said...

Linked article suggests he’s getting chloroquine and a Z-pak, so he is helping the rest of us learn about that treatment. I hope it is successful for him.

By coincidence, I thought of Mr. Lat just this morning when I came across the term “benchslap,” which I believe he coined at “Above the Law.”

Mark said...

JP, based on Achilles, Drago, and the like, Unknown is just following the well established practice here.

Heck folks like Dr K just in recent days took to making meth jokes about other posters.

You must not have been here long

Automatic_Wing said...

The global economy collapsing will cause people to perish, too. Maybe we won't be able to identify the victims individually, like we can with David Lat. But they'll be dead nonetheless.

Stay Safe said...

Yes, it autocorrected to parish. I am typing on my phone. Big deal.

And yes, many commentators on this blog have been arguing that we should not be going on lock down which would lead to tens of thousands of David Lats dying.

David Lat is lucky that he got sick early so that he has access to treatment. Thousands of others will not be so lucky. Many who comment here are willing to see that number go up believing that is a reasonable exchange for the economy not being damaged. (Truth: the economy was going to be disrupted following either path.)

Howard said...

He looked young and healthy in the linked page... Outside of the high risk demographic. Glad that he has access to a ventilator. Hopefully the curve flattens enough to come under the increasing supply.

There are plenty of deniers on this site, but I prefer to blame stupidity ignorance ideology rather than evil intention. That said I continue to hope that they might be at least in part correct.

Roger Sweeny said...

Any thoughts or prayers people have are much appreciated

What a right-wing asshole.

Bill, Republic of Texas said...

I don't know or care who Lat is. I also hope he fully recovered.

But why should society come to a grinding halt to avoid a few deaths from natural causes?

May guess is that fewer people will due from WuFlu than gang violence and illegal alien crime. But we were repeatedly told that we can't stop illegal aliens or incarcerate young black men without being called racists.

Now we have to drive the whole world into poverty to fight a common virus?

How about taking reasonable precautions to address societal solutions. Like not encouraging and expelling illegal aliens. Strict law enforcement and incarceration in high crime neighborhoods. Isolating and supporting at risk individuals and the rest of us wear masks and go to work to feed our families.

How many failed businesses. How many list jobs. How many broken dreams. How many suicides and drug and alcohol addiction are we willing to allow?

Time to grow up.

Curious George said...

"Unknown said...
Many commentators to this blog say that tens of thousands of people like David should be allowed to parish instead of disrupting the economy."

First, he's not dead. Second, no one has called for that asshole. Why are lefties always so fucking dishonest.

Here are some facts...millions of lives have been destroyed already. Ohio's unemployment want from 5,000 to 140,000 claims in a week. Wanna guess what they be this coming week? Don't you care?

Ficta said...

The death toll from poverty may dwarf deaths from the virus if this shutdown destroys the economy. The deaths will be harder to trace clearly to the governors who panicked and broke the country, but they'll be just as sad. Probably, they'll be sadder, because many of them will be children. The choices are not simple. Screaming at people in a self righteous rage may feel good, but it is not helpful.

stevew said...

Is it just me or does Stay Safe sound a lot like Inga? Passionately scolding straw men and assigning shame. Not helpful.

I don't know who David Lat is but wish him well, and think most here feel the same way.

People here and elsewhere that question the government mandated actions of shutting down and sheltering in place because of what it will do to the economy are, for the most part, engaged in an examination of the trade-offs of that approach versus some other. Speaking only for myself, I am questioning the efficacy of the current regime in achieving the stated goal.

We likely will never know which is worse or better.

Stay Safe said...

If this virus was allowed to run rampant we would still be facing an economic meltdown. We would also potentially be facing civil disorder and, of course, exponentially many more deaths.

Bill, Republic of Texas said...

Why are lefties always so fucking dishonest.

Because they are full of anger and hate.

Howard said...

Thanks for the dire economic predictions fellows. You're helping to complete the circle demonstrating that your denial of climate change and fear of economic collapse is repeated now with the Coronavirus outbreak. the outcome of the pandemic will reveal itself much sooner than will the consequences of global warming. Stay tuned for scenes from next week's episode

BUMBLE BEE said...

Google triage. Discuss. Only the strong survive. Disclosure: I'm in the kill zone.

Stay Safe said...

We will know ”which was worse or better.” We will be able to track what happened in States that treated this threat seriously in comparison to those that did not.

Jim Gust said...

If we can lift the lockdown in a week, by the beginning of April, the economic damage can be contained.

If not, the damage to the economy will dwarf the gains from slowing the WuFlu progress.

My expectation is that the death rate crests in early April, and by June the Democrats will be criticizing Trump for overreaction.

Democrats will continue to use the crisis to advance unrelated policy positions.

Sebastian said...

"millions of lives have been destroyed already"

With enormous public health consequences to follow.

The alternative approach to lockdowns, tanking the economy, and rampant child abuse proposed here is strict quarantines for risk groups and common-sense adjustments for everyone else.

Lat is in a grey zone: 44, so younger than most people affected, but with one risk factor, asthma.

Stay Safe said...

Btw, I am not a leftist.

This existential crisis is not about ideology.

rcocean said...

Excercise induced asthma. You learn something new every day.

Spiros said...

In the article cited by Professor Althouse:

"Shemtob said that doctors had prescribed Lat a Z-Pak (azithromycin) and an anti-malaria drug."

Trump's favorite French doctor, Dr. Didier Raoult, found that after 6 days 100% of patients treated with an anti-malarial drug ("HCQ") and Azithromycin were virologically cured. His study is full peer reviewed so calm done, it's not just anecdotal evidence. If this treatment actually works (and it is super cheap!), then it is a "game changer."

Rachel Maddow can then start to convince us that a de facto state of martial law was okay because the Chinese and Russians were going to invade or something...

On an unrelated point, is it just me, or does the anti-Trump stuff sound kind of like the Elders of Zion stuff. All sorts of behind the scenes lechery...

Paco Wové said...

"virus was allowed to run rampant"

Which is being proposed by ... who?

Sebastian said...

"by June the Democrats will be criticizing Trump for overreaction"

Already predicted right here on this blog a couple of weeks ago.

But it will be tricky: the most extreme measures were taken by Dem governors.

Cuz, as Cuomo put it, if he saved only one life, it's worth it.

Insanity personified. #Resist.

Stay Safe said...

But ideology blinded many people during the critical lead up time. Tucker Carlson was on the right side of history.

rcocean said...

Left Wing Troll: Stupid remark
Althouse Commmenters: How can you say that?! Here's why.
Left Wing troll: Another stupid remark.
Althouse Commmenters: That's Outrageous! Here's why.

Rinse and Repeat.

Yawn.

hawkeyedjb said...

"denial of climate change and fear of economic collapse"

Could you throw in something about abortion too?

Browndog said...

Remarkable how dramatic my mood changed once I started reading these comments.

I hope some of you have a peaceful day, and you won't find it here.

Howard said...

Go to the abortion thread Hawkeye. That is a completely different form of mental illness. It's really interesting to see during this stress test that were all undergoing how people react. The major distinguishing characteristic whether or not a person is capable of nuance.

As RH Harding might say it's what separates the men from the boys.

Amadeus 48 said...

Stay Safe—Would you be pontificating this way if poor Mr. Lat suffered a catastrophic asthma attack or was dying of seasonal flu? Life is full of catastrophes and illnesses. Last year the beautiful and charismatic Bre Payton died at 26 of flu. Being a conservative and all, you have taken it into account in calibrating your comments, I am sure.

Howard said...

That's interesting brown dog because these threads have no impact on my mood. I guess that's because I was poisoned by toxic masculinity. I do wish I could enjoy living inside a soap opera of emotions where you Are constantly reacting to others which I suppose frees you up from any personal responsibility.

Maillard Reactionary said...

What Bill, Republic of Texas said at 8:31 AM.

Today I will venture out and hunt the Great White Toilet Paper, and on the way home, pick up a couple of four-packs of tonic.

Public policy is one thing, personal safety is another.

Curious George said...

"Stay Safe said...
Yes, it autocorrected to parish. I am typing on my phone. Big deal."

That's another lie. You just can't help yourself can you.


Bill, Republic of Texas said...

That's interesting brown dog because these threads have no impact on my mood.

That's because you are a carrier.

Phil 314 said...

“But why should society come to a grinding halt to avoid a few deaths from natural causes?”

A couple of comments:
-its not “a few deaths”
-if you don’t so sick as to need hospital care you won’t experience the consequences of the numbers
-if you do get sick enough to need ED or hospital care, for COVID19 or any other condition, you will experience the consequences which my include in a worse case scenario of “No, you can’t have that, we don’t have it, you will likely die”
-now if you didn’t have to go the hospital the above description will sound horrible but “necessary” in such a crisis. If you do have to go to the hospital such a scenario will seem outrageous.
-No doubt the shut down / shelter in place rules will have a devasting effect on the economy
-do folks who want to “take their chances” understand that there may be no turning back once you’ve taken your chances.

bagoh20 said...

"But ideology blinded many people during the critical lead up time. Tucker Carlson was on the right side of history."

The history is not done yet, and it's changing rapidly. Your dire predictions are not going to happen despite the virus has pretty much "run rampant", because the extreme responses just started, and the epidemic seems to already be resolving itself pretty quickly from simple education and voluntary changes to behavior.

Lurker21 said...

The talk of thousands dying because of an economic slump isn't something I'd automatically dismiss - we have to ensure that people get what they need to survive - but it reminds me of the talk that hundreds of thousands of Iraqis died because of sanctions. Both opponents of sanctions and supporters of invasion talked that way - and some supporters of sanctions even accepted the allegation, arguing that it was an acceptable cost. What the truth was isn't entirely certain even now, but I've heard reports that the numbers were wildly exaggerated. My guess is that it would be easier to get food and medicine to those in need than to let the health care system collapse under new cases of the virus.

RMc said...

Stay Safe said...blah blah blah.

Ann! Clean up in aisle five...!

Ken B said...

Stay safe says:”Many commentators to this blog say that tens of thousands of people like David should be allowed to parish instead of disrupting the economy.”

I know you are highlighting their callousness but I want to add that what they are saying is even stupider than that seems at first. Letting the virus rage will not just kill, it will destroy the economy. Imagine 50 million or more falling sick at the same time, several million of them seriously. That is a risk they seem happy to take.

Ken B said...

“Blogger Stay Safe said...
If this virus was allowed to run rampant we would still be facing an economic meltdown. We would also potentially be facing civil disorder and, of course, exponentially many more deaths.”

Exactly. But we would be really sticking it to CNN, amirite?

Howard said...

Bill republic of Texas admits he's a bottom.

Paco Wové said...

"Today I will venture out and hunt the Great White Toilet Paper,"

Bagged me a 12-roller yesterday, after hours of careful stakeout.

Oso Negro said...

On a bitter and personal note, I wouldn't have known who David Lat was if Althouse had not published this. I googled him. He is the founder of "Above the Law", a site that cheerfully participated in the ruin of my brother. So, you can well imagine that I will not be mourning his suffering and potential demise. That is as charitable as I can be.

Stay Safe said...

Ken B, of course, you are right.

It makes me sick to see so many here choosing their political ideology over the well being of our country.

William said...

My guess is that the economy can shut down for a while--maybe a month--and then bounce back. Too much longer and things will start to atrophy. If we have massive unemployment and massive deficits for a protracted period, bad shit will start happening. There's a balance or equation or logarithm that we need to find to adjust to this disease. I wish Lat well, but there are reasonable questions to ask about acceptable losses.

Nichevo said...

Stay Safe said...
Many commentators to this blog say that tens of thousands of people like David should be allowed to parish instead of disrupting the economy.

3/22/20, 8:01 AM



Not aware that the disease selects for men with husbands. Doubt they parish much.


Howard said...
That's interesting brown dog because these threads have no impact on my mood.

That's nice. How did you find this site, Howie? How did we get so lucky to have you come here every single day and flap your cocksucker about how other people feel? You shouldn't be so smug. I wouldn't wish even one little case of Wuhan Lung on your own family, but OTOH, if so, I'd like to see your face while people tell you to man up and get that rotting meat underground.

Paco Wové said...

"Many commentators to this blog say that tens of thousands of people like David should be allowed to parish [sic] instead of disrupting the economy."

Just to re-focus on the original lie.

Ken B said...

Stay Safe
Your comment about shame suggests something to me. In a couple weeks many of the denialists here will deny they were denialists, and some will try to stealth delete comments.

It’s hilarious seeing some of the reactions. I get called left wing here a lot. Actually I was more or less a never Trumper.

Browndog said...

Howard said...

That's interesting brown dog because these threads have no impact on my mood. I guess that's because I was poisoned by toxic masculinity. I do wish I could enjoy living inside a soap opera of emotions where you Are constantly reacting to others which I suppose frees you up from any personal responsibility.


Why don't you just call me a pussy and be done with it?

Do us both a favor and never respond to me again.

Birkel said...

Just a few weeks ago "thoughts and prayers" were ridiculed in the MSM.

Ken B said...

William:
“My guess is that the economy can shut down for a while--maybe a month--and then bounce back. Too much longer and things will start to atrophy. If we have massive unemployment and massive deficits for a protracted period, bad shit will start happening. There's a balance or equation or logarithm that we need to find to adjust to this disease. I wish Lat well, but there are reasonable questions to ask about acceptable losses.”

Agreed. A total lockdown is excessive but a very serious retreat into greater social distance and activity we can handle for a few weeks. It will require government funds to tide businesses and people over, but it need not cripple the economy. It’s essential we get plans in place while we sit. I believe Trump's tea is working. I do not know about Newsom's.

It is disruptive and costly. Letting the virus out of control is more disruptive and more costly.

Howard said...

Brown stain, I don't have to call you a pussy when you constantly self-identify in a personal pride parade every day

Tom T. said...

Stay Safe, I think you need to explain why you're OK letting thousands of people die of the flu each year. I haven't seen you in this blog calling for the level of isolation and economic disruption necessary to prevent the spread of the flu. That makes you complicit in those deaths, and you need to tell us why they're different from coronavirus.

Howard said...

I love it when you people get the verklempt vapors. It lets me know that I am very close to 8 degrees before top dead center.

Curious George said...

"Ken B said...
I know you are highlighting their callousness but I want to add that what they are saying is even stupider than that seems at first. Letting the virus rage will not just kill, it will destroy the economy. Imagine 50 million or more falling sick at the same time, several million of them seriously. That is a risk they seem happy to take."

Let's break this down:

No one has suggested letting this virus rage. Lie #1
Fifty million getting sick at the same time? That's not how it works dummy.

You just make up a bunch of bullshit, present it as fact, and that's your argument.

You want an actual fact? These shutdowns are killing the economy. Right now.

Curious George said...

"Howard said...
I love it when you people get the verklempt vapors. It lets me know that I am very close to 8 degrees before top dead center."

You people? 95% of the commenters, especially regulars, know you are a troll, and a bad one at that. I mean you are admitting it in this very comment.

Nichevo said...



You people? 95% of the commenters, especially regulars, know you are a troll, and a bad one at that. I mean you are admitting it in this very comment



Let him be, my simian friend. It obviously fills a deep need for him.

Tim said...

H1N1 infected 60 million in the USA and 12,500 (or so) died. This Wuhan virus will likely be less than that. Nothing was canceled country-wide and no state ordered shutdowns. After the 4 years of deep state/globalist attacks on Trump and anyone associated with him I would not be shocked to find out that this is more of the same, just a handy cause to jump onto. 2009/2010 pandemic was of course during the reign of the dog-eating Lightbringer. No coincidence, I'm sure.

Tim said...

https://tinyurl.com/s6zpvxz

Dr. Fauci on the H1N1 in 2010

Narayanan said...

https://pjmedia.com/trending/its-barack-obama-fault-theres-a-shortage-of-n95-respirator-masks-heres-why/

Thistlerose said...

40 percent of the cases in the United States are in one large metropolitan area, New York City. The remainder are rather randomly spread over the rest of the large metropolitan areas in the US with scatterings in less urban areas.

I personally do not feel telling everyone in the rest of the country they can't go to work will help the people of New York. People not going to work means no new personal Protection Equipment, no toilet paper, no food produced, transported, or sold to citizens. No electric, water, garbage pickup excreta. What people need to do in New York is not the same as what is needed to be done in Appleton WI. One size fits all means that it doesn't really fit anyone well.

But then I am one of the people who still goes to work to make sure people get food and other things they need and get yelled at because we are out of hand goo.

Howard (not that Howard) said...

Very cogent comment, Thistlerose

Birkel said...

Howard compliments somebody who is saying the same thing as all of those he criticizes for thinking of the broader economy.

Very cogent, indeed.

mockturtle said...

Would it be so sad if he weren't married to another man? Asking for a friend.

Bruce Hayden said...

“He looked young and healthy in the linked page... Outside of the high risk demographic”

He is married to someone named Zachary Baron Shemtob. Traditionally that has been exclusively a guy’s name. That all but guarantees David’s sexual orientation, putting him in a high risk demographic.

I have seen several times when heightened risk factors are listed, for serious COVID-19 cases, that male homosexuality may theoretically be a risk factor, due to often weakened immune systems, as a result, in part, of their higher likelihood of being infected by STDs, including, but not limited to, HIV.

BTW - it would be interesting to see the interaction between HIV-1 and SARS-CoV-2, which appear to share an affinity towards cell infections via ACE2 receptors, appearing to have very similar spike components. Do they compete, or can they share? Was sharing what led to SAR-2 developing its novel, HIV-1 like, spikes, through gene swapping? Do some HIV drugs help in fighting SARS-2? Right now, there appears to be some success in this area.

Birkel said...

2009 Dr. Anthony Fauci sounds just like me now.
We need more of that 2009 guy and less of the economy killer.

Birkel said...

Bruce Hayden,
Early reports seemed to indicate several long strands of the novel WuFlu DNA (RNA?) were from HIV, indicating use of CRISPR at the Wuhan lab. Those rumors were disregarded in the MSM. Who can say? Fog of war and all.

Nichevo said...

One size fits all means that it doesn't really fit anyone well.

But then I am one of the people who still goes to work to make sure people get food and other things they need and get yelled at because we are out of hand goo.

3/22/20, 10:32 AM
Howard (not that Howard) said...
Very cogent comment, Thistlerose

3/22/20, 10:35 AM
Birkel said...
Howard compliments somebody who is saying the same thing as all of those he criticizes for thinking of the broader economy.

Very cogent, indeed.

3/22/20, 10:41 AM


Bam-bam-bam. But I won't pile on. My observation is prompted by this sequence, though.

The great secular trend, if im using the term correctly, in our society is to regard the recognition of differences as hypocrisy. This seems unfortunate.

Howard (not that Howard) said...

What the what? Thistlerose said go to work, I said yes do that, and others took some weird interpretation.

Go to work. Wash your hands. Be resilient.

Birkel said...

(Not that Howard)

I see you are Not that Howard.
Apologies.

Howard (not that Howard) said...

No worries. I regret that other idiot sullying the great name of Howard, which was also borne by my grandfather, a man of great resilience and humility.

Known Unknown said...

If we had a website that updated traffic deaths daily most of us would never drive a car again.

frenchy said...

It would be an awful thing if he had any comorbidities of some sort or another from some unknown source which might've compromised his immune system, causing him so much vulnerability and physical distress.

mockturtle said...

Birkel observes: Early reports seemed to indicate several long strands of the novel WuFlu DNA (RNA?)

Yes, I remember that being reported very early on and then it disappeared as if by magic. The articles I had read were written by Chinese virologists. May they rest in peace.

Mark said...

Andrew Sullivan -- at least from AA's excerpt of him -- seems to be taking the same approach as the people that "Stay Safe" condemns here.

So does that mean that Sullivan -- a gay man married to another man (since that seems to be an unsaid part of "Stay Safe" singling him out) -- also callously wants tens of thousands of people like Lat to die?

Mark said...

"Stay Safe" is certainly a brand new account and since he/she seems to believe they have some familiarity with the commenters here is very likely a past/current commenter him/herself. Possibly someone who has been banned.

Who will they be tomorrow?

In any event, "Stay Safe" -- and the people who tag team with him/her -- you are not part of the solution. You are part of the problem.

Mark said...

As for David Lat --

May God protect him and keep him, together with all the tens of thousands like him. May the Lord restore physical health to all those of weakened with illness of any kind, grant peace to those troubled with worry, and provide comfort for those discouraged with problems.

Inga said...

“Is it just me or does Stay Safe sound a lot like Inga? Passionately scolding straw men and assigning shame. Not helpful.”

No the person you mention does not sound like me. I have no reason to use a sock puppet.

As for Lat, another young man who seemed to be in good health. Very sad, hopefully he survives. People who are feeling secure in the notion that this virus only kills or seriously sickens the elderly or those with underlying health issues might want to face some unsettling realities.

Birkel said...

"Stay Safe" is Ritmo?

That seems likely.

Birkel said...

Inga may want to recognize the harm she is actively encouraging. Millions out of work. Taxes collected plummeting. Trillions in promises from the federal government - many will be broken! Dislocation and human suffering.

The trade-offs cannot be avoided. But you let one metric that you hypothesize is a known, and that you cannot control, dominate your thinking.

Your inability to reason well is legendary.

Howard (not that Howard) said...

"As for Lat, another young man who seemed to be in good health. Very sad, hopefully he survives. People who are feeling secure in the notion that this virus only kills or seriously sickens the elderly or those with underlying health issues might want to face some unsettling realities."

Yeah, Inga, whatever feeds your statist fantasies.

Maillard Reactionary said...

Paco Wove @9:38 AM: Impressive and well done! It will look great mounted in your den.

JAORE said...

Sigh, make a comment. Have someone assume the absolute worst intentions behind that comment. Respond with a nasty, nasty comment on motivation. Reveal yourself as a hateful, ugly soul.

Lather, rinse, repeat.

Nichevo said...

Howard (not that Howard) said...
No worries. I regret that other idiot sullying the great name of Howard, which was also borne by my grandfather



Sorry/thanks, HNTH. I did not attend that you were NTH.

Paco Wové said...

"States that treated this threat seriously in comparison to those that did not"

In the same vein, what states are not treating this threat seriously?

mockturtle said...

I'm sure that, at this time, the number of confirmed cases is fairly proportional to the number of tests being processed. Right now it looks like NY is getting the lion's share. The 'hot spots' will continue to receive the most supplies. The rest of us just might benefit from following the basic guidelines in the absence of meaningful data.

Ann Althouse said...

The idea that we could just prioritize the economy is stupid. 11 million deaths, most suffered without access to health care, would also screw up the economy.

You should understand what you are arguing for or shut up and do your part, which is to do what the experts have said we need to do. Or would you prefer a sledgehammer of a message that would terrify and demoralize us

Paco Wové said...

"The idea that we could just prioritize the economy is stupid."

"just prioritize the economy"? Who is saying that? Are you trolling your own blog comments as "Stay Safe"?

loudogblog said...

I get it that some people didn't take this seriously before. There was a lot of misinformation and some willful blindness. But now that it's obvious what is happening with the virus, we all have a duty to each other to do everything in our power to stay healthy and not pass the infection on to others. There is going to be massive economic damage no matter what happens. We need to try and mitigate the human suffering first.

mockturtle said...

Rand Paul has tested positive and is self-isolating.

mockturtle said...

Althouse @ 12:51: That needed saying!

Paco Wové said...

"The economy" is not the be-all and end-all of existence, but a functional economic system is vital for everything, including medical care. A crisis like this is going to be a severe test of all our social systems, and it is a positive good that in this country we can discuss our various perspectives openly, and maybe even come up with novel and effective responses to the crisis.

One thing that absolutely does not help is attempting to shut down discussion with shouts of "you bad, awful people!"

Paco Wové said...

Amazon workers delivering stuff to your door is not the default state of the universe, Althouse.

walter said...

David Lat's twitter feed with history
I hope they are at least trying the HCQ + Azithromycin treatmenr on Lat.

Sebastian said...

"The idea that we could just prioritize the economy is stupid."

Nobody is saying that. Saying that people are saying that isn't helping. It is a tendentious distortion.

The point I and many others here have made repeatedly is that we need to think rationally about trade-offs, including cost per QALY saved. Example: tanking the Italian economy, at a cost of hundreds of billions of euros and major loss in QALYs among the young, for the sake of saving the lives of several thousand sick people over 80, half with three underlying conditions, so less let's say than 5 QALYs per person, is not an obvious choice. At this point, I would estimate, expense per QALY is an order of magnitude higher than what we would accept in the normal course of medical business. That makes no sense and is not sustainable.

The health "experts" are not thinking about the economic and out-year cost of saving "lives"--at least none that I have heard. Certainly many public officials are responding insanely--as in Andrew Cuomo's "if I save one life it's worth it" nonsense. It doesn't help that some people buy that destructive nonsense. Why, Althouse might have asked in her more skeptical moments, are officials and "experts" saying such things? Are they doing it to help us, or perhaps --

Of course, at some point, Stein's law kicks in: what can't go on, won't. Let's suppose that the "you can't prioritize the economy" narrative keeps us in clampdown for more than a few weeks. Soon, people start having trouble getting food, or paying for food. Things start breaking down. People start breaking down. Young people rebel. At that point, we will, out of necessity, "prioritize the economy"--cuz, guess what, a working "economy" is the condition for modern life itself.

What we need is rigorous isolation of the risk groups, with minimal harm to the real economy since most are already unproductive, and sensible adaptations among everyone else, to limit claims on health care while rebuilding the economy.

Michael said...

There have been more deaths in the US from Flu this flu season than deaths worldwide from ChinaVirus. The flu has killed exponentially if that makes you feel better.

Birkel said...

Sure, Althouse. The trade-offs are between a hypothetical worst case scenario times 10-20 versus the known cost of economic ruin.

Let's frame the trade-offs like this:
Spread the number of cases across a longer time frame and give people 50% of their promises Social Security payments (either thru inflation or reduction)
-OR-
Allow lower risk people to keep the economy going (and practicing safety precautions) while higher risk people stay sequestered until the disease is under control.

Ask people if a 50% reduction in Social Security payments is worth the trade.

Drago said...

Mark: "JP, based on Achilles, Drago, and the like, Unknown is just following the well established practice here."

LOL

Riiiight.

Drago said...

Sebastian: "Nobody is saying that. Saying that people are saying that isn't helping. It is a tendentious distortion."

I'm sure Mark will point that out as well any second now.....

Michael said...

Sheltering in place is a rich persons relaxing virtue signally “effort” to stop a pandemic. More satisfying than recycling. Similar.

Drago said...

Stay Safe: "And yes, many commentators on this blog have been arguing that we should not be going on lock down which would lead to tens of thousands of David Lats dying."

I can't recall a single person saying that.

Not a single one.

I do recall many many discussions regarding different demographic groups/medical condition scenarios that would require greater isolation than other groups.

But thats about it.

But then again, Stay Safe came in "hot" and decided to kick things off with total BS because I guess his/her/xer heart is "in the right place".

MadisonMan said...

Azithromycin
Hey! I happen to have a couple days' worth supply of these. Didn't realize they were useful for antiWuFlu.
I do not think it helpful (from a mental health POV) to follow the progression of this disease diagnosis by diagnosis, and death by death. I understand from a click here point of view why the Media loves this (what else can they report on?)
I'm off for a walk in the great outdoors. Too bad it's so cloudy outside. Yesterday was awesome.

Birkel said...

People who live in theoretical worlds assume can openers exist. But can openers do not spring to existence because we wish it so.

I do not believe the worst case scenarios are anywhere close to reality. When were they ever? And when they do not obtain some idiots will claim it was all worth it because the worst possible cases will have been avoided. But they won't be correct then, either.

Food does not come from the grocery store.

Leland said...

11 million deaths

What is that based on? There's less than 450,000 cases of coronavirus worldwide. Less than 15,000 deaths world wide. Now we are throwing out numbers like 11 million people?

You know how you get 11 million people deaths really quickly, see Venezuela and the destruction of their economy. Even then, you don't quite hit those numbers, but you sure get a lot closer than a bad flu virus.

By the way, the estimated number of flu cases (numbers from CDC) is 38 to 54 million this season. If the number of COVID-19 deaths is twice that of the flu this season, you are still around 100,000 deaths in the US. That's a lot of people, but still 100 times less than 11 million people.

Let's not get carried away.

Birkel said...

Damn this clever Canadian and his entrepreneurial spirit:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8136299/Doctors-turns-one-ventilator-nine-genius-DIY-mechanics.html

Let's assume a worst case scenario in which innovation never happens.
I hope Professor Malthus approves.

Birkel said...

Leland,
The US economy represents about one quarter of the sum of worldwide GDP. And we expect a 25% slowdown in Q2. So that represents - with just US GDP in decline - a 6.25 percent destruction of worldwide economic activity.

When the US sneezes, the whole world will catch Winnie Xi Flu.

Drago said...

Birkel: "Damn this clever Canadian and his entrepreneurial spirit:"

In fairness to the entrepreneurial spirit in the US, the Canadian doc did say he picked up the idea from 2 Detroit doctors some years back.

Birkel said...

Drago,
If the multi-cultis are to believe good news, then it's best to make it seem cosmopolitan and international.

(After all, we cannot afford to lose another eleventy million Americans after losing 150 million Americans to gun violence over the last decade. I think you will agree.)

Amadeus 48 said...

Two points:

First, if you click through to the story on David Lat, you see that he suffers from asthma, the poor man, so he is someone with underlying respiratory health issues. His husband says that the asthma may be making his case difficult to treat.

Second: If anyone thinks that the wide variety of responses from state governments reflects callousness by some and wisdom by others, we will only know after the fact who is who. Gov. Pritzker's "stay at home" order in Illinois is wondrous to behold: it basically says that everything except dine-in restaurants and bars can be considered an essential business. That means that a third party can come into your home to walk your dog, your cannabis dispensary will stay open, and you can hire a plumber to come in and disconnect the toilets in your "blocking" house next door, and thereby reducing the real estate taxes on that essentially decorative edifice (that one is an inside joke for Illinois residents).

What I see are the following:

1. Wash your hands frequently.
2. Stay home if you are sick.
3. Cover up with a tissue or sleeve (not your hand), and wash or disinfect your hands as soon as you can.
4. Older people or those with underlying health issues should be particularly careful.

We are all moral agents and should be considerate of others as well as ourselves.

Drago said...

Birkel: "(After all, we cannot afford to lose another eleventy million Americans after losing 150 million Americans to gun violence over the last decade. I think you will agree.)"

I would be happy to agree with you, were I still alive.

Alas, I have already been killed 3 times over from Net Neutrality, the Nuclear War with NK and the repeal of the obamacare mandate.

Thankfully, despite my demise, I'm still voting in every election in CA and Chicago as a democrat which LLR-lefty Chuck assures me is A-Okay due to his "experience" helping to oversee Democrat voter fraud in Detroit.

mockturtle said...

First, if you click through to the story on David Lat, you see that he suffers from asthma

Exercise-induced asthma is quite common even among athletes which is why they are allowed to used a bronchodilator before they perform. I also suffer from this occasionally, especially in cold, damp air and was why I could not run distance races in high school.

Amadeus 48 said...

"11 million deaths"

I hope Professor Althouse was employing reductio ad absurdum, Leland. If not, she needs to turn off cable news. I think her point is that you can't just say that protecting the economy should always be paramount because things are too linked up. Defeating a sufficiently deadly plague may come first, then a recovery.

If there 11 million deaths from this, many of us have an appointment in Samarra.

walter said...

I wonder if Rand Paul's lung function suffers after that neighborly disagreement and subsequent surgeries.

mockturtle said...

I wonder if Rand Paul's lung function suffered after that neighborly disagreement and subsequent surgeries.

That's right--he suffered pneumonia as a result of that injury, IIRC.

Operaman said...

“40 percent of the cases in the United States are in one large metropolitan area, New York City. The remainder are rather randomly spread over the rest of the large metropolitan areas in the US with scatterings in less urban areas.

I personally do not feel telling everyone in the rest of the country they can't go to work will help the people of New York.”

Exaggerate much?

That there is a large number of cases in our biggest, most densely populated city is a matter of arithmetic, and says nothing about the inevitable advance of the virus to less populated areas (most of which lack the medical infrastructure of more urban areas). The implicit message of this comment is that things in the rest of the country are fine and will remain so if left to their own devices. This sort of message will get a lot of people killed.

As a country, we have overcome severe challenges when united in purpose and action. We can turn the economy around - with great difficulty and sacrifice. No amount of sacrifice, however, will bring back the dead. It seems to me that the commentators who are willing to have great numbers of people die to keep businesses open are engaging in the same sort of “death panel” behavior that they decry in other contexts. Pro-life indeed.

wholelottasplainin' said...

Stay Safe said...
We will know ”which was worse or better.” We will be able to track what happened in States that treated this threat seriously in comparison to those that did not.
********************
Currently:

New York State has 22 thousand cases, and 114 dead
California has 1550 cases and 28 dead.

Both have put their residents in lock-down.

Massachusetts has 530 cases and 2 dead.
Texas has 560 cases and 5 dead.

Neither has imposed a lock-down.

Which states are not treating the threat seriously? IOW what are your criteria for "seriousness".

Mark said...

How many of the argumentative alarmists are posting under multiple names?

And not only fomenting alarm, they are pushing disinformation about what others have said.

wholelottasplainin' said...

Operaman said...

As a country, we have overcome severe challenges when united in purpose and action. We can turn the economy around - with great difficulty and sacrifice. No amount of sacrifice, however, will bring back the dead. It seems to me that the commentators who are willing to have great numbers of people die to keep businesses open are engaging in the same sort of “death panel” behavior that they decry in other contexts. Pro-life indeed.
**********************
Will you apply the same standard to annual deaths from common influenza, opioid overdoses, auto accidents and the like----all of which occur in the tens of thousands?

Or are you just virtue signaling?

Birkel said...

Operaman,
All I ask is that you forego one-half of all future transfer payments to pay for this. You get one-half the Social Security, Medicaid, Medicare, MediGap, food stamp, unemployment, and all other federal transfer programs.

Deal?

You won't even get less in nominal dollars. We will inflate the currency and the dollars will buy less.

Deal?

Sebastian said...

"11 million deaths, most suffered without access to health care, would also screw up the economy."

The future of young people should not be sacrificed to the fears of old people.

Of course, just to prevent the next distortion, I am not saying that we should "just prioritize young people over old people."

But if old people propose to sacrifice by giving up Social Security and Medicare, as compensation for schooling and jobs and businesses and savings and opportunities lost, let's talk.

Amadeus 48 said...

Finally, drug therapies are being developed for this at breakneck speed, and there will be a vaccine sooner than normal. There may well be side-effects, but no one, and I mean no one, thinks that it would be prudent to let it "rage through the populace" (although my brother-in -law tells me that some college kids in Boulder threw a "Boomer Remover" party at CU).

This is going to be like a Category 3 hurricane: unpleasant, messy, expensive, and somewhat deadly, but over-hyped.

MeatPopscicle1234 said...
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Leland said...

I hope Professor Althouse was employing reductio ad absurdum, Leland. If not, she needs to turn off cable news.

I hope so too, because that's my thoughts exactly.

BarrySanders20 said...

I pledge to do my part by observing the precautions, continuing to work, continuing to spend where and when I can to circulate dollars, urge my teenagers to be smart about their behavior, check in with my isolated parents to how they are coping (very well so far), and trying to reduce the number of craps I take so as to preserve that valuable commodity that others seem to value so highly.

Of all of this, I am most amazed at the TP issue. How often do most people crap? How much paper do you use each time for chrissakes? I could probably make one of the double rolls that my wife buys last 6 months. Never really considered it until this crisis. Maybe we need some instruction on butt wiping from the experts. The Asshole Czar. Some commenters could apply. I understand the ladies need to blot, but how much do you really need for that?

For butt-wiping, ow about using 4-5 squares and not eating so much, so as to reduce your crap-tonnage? That's my sledgehammer of a message that I hope doesn't terrify and demoralize you.

Amadeus 48 said...

I have gone from five squares per crap (two passes, a three and a two) to four squares (a two and a two).

Here I stand. I cannot do otherwise.

walter said...

"I could probably make one of the double rolls that my wife buys last 6 months"
I was with you up to that point.
I will not be using your guest towel.

mockturtle said...

Who is David Lat and why should I care more about him than any other normal person?

Seriously, Morkoth? How long have you been reading this blog?

walter said...

If only there was a way to find out at least part A.
Someday..

MeatPopscicle1234 said...
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MeatPopscicle1234 said...
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Birkel said...

mockturtle,
Does reading this blog a long time make one person more important than another?

BarrySanders20 said...

"Is anyone else starting to feel like there are two levels of medical response to this thing?"

No doubt the rich and connected will get better care. No different than anything else.

So far, the stats show that 80% of people who get the virus don't need hospitalization. The 20% who do tend to have one or more risk factors. The clinics and ER's are trying to discourage overuse by people who are sick but don't need the highest level of care. They need space for people who really cannot breathe, like David Lat. Anyone getting the drug combos is helpful right now because they can be used to study the effectiveness of the treatment. But no doubt some people getting turned away really should be admitted, just like Lat was, and some resources are being directed to those who are connected.

Paco Wové said...

"Is he a regular poster?"

I don't think so. He founded a law-oriented blog called Above the Law. He has a Wikipedia page and everything. I don't know much about it, other than that people like Glenn Reynolds didn't care for it much.

mockturtle said...

Morkoth: I was referring to the very special place that gay men hold in the heart of our beloved hostess. I've never heard of the dude, either, but after reading the particulars it was clear why she posted it.

BarrySanders20 said...

Above The Law is generally a left-leaning site for young urban big city/big law types who have an inflated egos and an outsized sense of their own brilliance and importance.

mockturtle said...

mockturtle,
Does reading this blog a long time make one person more important than another?


See my comment just above, Birkel. Geez!

MeatPopscicle1234 said...
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Tomcc said...

I noticed yesterday on the worldometers site that the box that shows "serious or critical cases" had a very small number, which I found heartening- but peculiar. Today that number is 5%, which strikes me as (probably) a more reasonable approximation. It's a high number, and it's bad news for New York.
Here in Oregon, our numbers are fairly low in terms of known cases and deaths. I don't know if testing has ramped up yet. As of last week, I heard we could only do 40 tests per day.

Maillard Reactionary said...

Though I don't agree with all of his political positions (by any means), I really like Rand Paul and I hope he does well. If we had more Senators like him the Federal Government wouldn't be so f'd up.

To get better is my wish also for everyone I've never heard of who is ill.

Separately, regarding asthma, I had severe allergy-induced asthma when I was a teenager. Scary bad. Fortunately it responded well to some kind of bronchial dilator pills the doc gave me for acute episodes. Once I discovered what the allergens were and avoided them, that helped too.

I completely outgrew it in my twenties, but I wouldn't wish asthma on anyone.

Tomcc said...

Ah, check that: 3% in the US, 5% worldwide.

Operaman said...

Operaman,
All I ask is that you forego one-half of all future transfer payments to pay for this. You get one-half the Social Security, Medicaid, Medicare, MediGap, food stamp, unemployment, and all other federal transfer programs.

Deal?

None of us know what the total cost will be of the efforts to spread out infections to reduce the impact on our health care system. It will be mighty, to be sure.

Your response, perhaps somewhat hyperbolic, not only assumes a particular magnitude without any evidence but also assumes what the sources of funding will be. Interestingly, you propose cutting our support, such as it is, to those most in need. That may reflect your true priorities or simply a rhetorical argument intended to foreclose discussion. I could ask a similarly unhelpful rhetorical question such as “who are you willing to sacrifice in your family - grandma, son, husband?”

We are all in this together, like it or not. I know that this country is rich in assets - financial, human and natural resources. And I am willing to draw deeply into those assets to protect hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of lives. Undoubtedly, severe economic dislocation will occur and will carry with it harsh impacts if the maximum effort is not made to mitigate them as best as possible.

A strategy that seeks to reduce economic impact by allowing business and other activities to resume with little restriction, by contrast, will, lead to many more deaths both due to the virus and the swamping of our medical infrastructure. Needless to say, the extent of death and severe illness associated with such a strategy will have it’s own massive economic cost.

There are no good or easy choices here. Any decision could be wrong, in hindsight. We have already seen the downside of not acting quickly and firmly. People die. It is true, as another comment stated, that we tolerate tens of thousands of deaths on the road because we put personal transportation choice ahead of safety; that we accept large numbers of deaths from opiates because the cost of treatment and decriminalization is too great for people who think addiction will never happen to them or their loved ones.

Should that be our criteria: whether it’s too inconvenient? Too expensive? I’m not ready to put people on ice floes when they’re too old or too susceptible to try to save. I’d rather try to save as many lives as possible because I feel that it’s right and because I feel that we’re up to this.

Ann Althouse said...

“ What is that based on? There's less than 450,000 cases of coronavirus worldwide. Less than 15,000 deaths world wide. Now we are ”throwing out numbers like 11 million people“

Consider:

Population of the U.S.

Infection rate could be 80% (I’m not making that up)

Rate of death, maybe 4 or 5% gets you to 11 million. I’m using that percentage because I’ve seen that in print, but it strikes me as low in the event that medical care isn’t available. And you’ll also need to account for the lack of medical care for all the other things that can be fatal, like heart attacks and cancer and childbirth.

11 million sounds like a scare number, but it’s actually conservative and fact based.

Paco Wové said...

"I’d rather try to save as many lives as possible because I feel that it’s right and because I feel that we’re up to this."

But you're not trying to save as many lives as possible – you've already said you've given up on car crash victims and opiate overdose victims. We could be doing so much more to save them!

Birkel said...

Sure thing, you summer child, you.

You think losing 1.4-1.5 trillion dollars in Q1 is a price worth paying because you think the supply of money comes from a Treasury printing press. And next quarter we are likely to lose the same or more if you have your way.

Your plan means restaurant workers - some of the most valuable you pretend to care about - are brokebut for US transfer payments. Fantastic thinking there.

There are trade-offs and you don't want to consider what they are. I am trying to get people to see what some of the trade-offs are. And you think those are my policy preferences, because why, dumb ass?

Birkel said...

The death rate for this disease appears to be between 0.1 and 0.25 percent of infected.

Initial claims of 3-4% have proven wrong.

DavidUW said...

Yes “stay safe” I don’t think we should waste $5 trillion on a few hundred or even a few thousand dead old people

The same people who moan we overspend on health care are advocating destroying millions of lives and pissing away trillions on a glorified flu. F you.

Birkel said...

I remember how Obama closed down the US economy when the H1N1 virus infected 60,000,000 Americans and killed more than 10,000.

https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2020/03/what_did_dr_fauci_have_to_say_in_2009_about_the_deadly_h1n1_pandemic.html

That Dr. Fauci sure was levelheaded.

DavidUW said...

The death is not currently 4-5% and will not be more than 0.5%

It is <0.5% in New York and dropping as any semi intelligent person knew it would with more testing.

1/2 are asymptomatic, at a minimum, likely far more

This is a bad flu season we’re destroying trillions of dollars, millions of lives and businesses for. The dreams of countless business owners, recent hires who finally got a job etc etc. all because asshole politicians who can’t math are going on a collective power trip

Fuck them. Or put them up against a wall
As I stated I’m not trading a 0.5% chance of death (in reality 0.25%, compared to my normal mortality of 0.28% rate at my age) for a 100% chance of poverty.

Sebastian said...

"The death is not currently 4-5% and will not be more than 0.5%"

Right.

So, questions for the pro-panic faction: how many trillions can we afford to lose? What degree of economic implosion should "we" accept? How do we weigh the few years of life of sick seniors saved agains the future reduced life expectancy of today's young?

Assuming, of course, that "we" are allowed to think about trade-offs. I'm not sure: are we?

Tomcc said...

Professor Althouse,
At the moment, Italy represents the worst case scenario and they have 978 cases per million population. Granted, we have too little information right now to extrapolate, but it's a useful reference.

Leland said...

Infection rate could be 80% (I’m not making that up)

Yeah you are. The infection rate wasn't even 50% on the Diamond Princess cruise ship, so where do you come close to 80%? Who are you reading/watching and where are they getting these numbers?

in the event that medical care isn’t available.

You mean civilization had dissolved and nobody knows modern medicine?

Mark said...

New York has had a bad day. An increase of 5400 new cases from a previous 10,000 cases, and 58 new deaths for a total of 114.

That is an overall rate of 0.7 percent.

Other states are seeing a spike in the last day too. That perhaps is to be expected. But other places are holding steady or declining. Perhaps the spiking states will go over the hump as well.

The U.S. overall is 1.27 percent -- 414 deaths and 32,356 cases.

Mark said...

Those are not "oh shit!" numbers. They are better than they could have been -- not as good as we would ALL like, of course.

And we are not out of the woods by any means, something again that practically ALL of us understand. But there is reason to take a breath and keep a level head.

Mark said...

so where do you come close to 80%? Who are you reading/watching and where are they getting these numbers?

Let's cut AA some slack here. Just go to the webpages for the Washington Post or New York Times and it is all hyped panic and doom and the usual Trump hate. I'm sure if I spent more than 30 seconds on MS-NBC, I see the same (I'm not going to, so I know I'm guilty of assuming the worst of them).

So the horror show is out there. And it is toxically poisoning many people.

Mark said...

Remember the disaster movies in the 1970s?

There was always some scene where someone was hysterically screaming and another character would come over and smack them into silence.

Mark said...

We will have to watch the Florida numbers -- and then the numbers in other states as the idiot students who go to F U who partied there for spring break come back to infect their home states.

Mark said...

Trump now reporting the hundreds of thousands of masks, face shield, gowns, etc. sent to New York; and the hundreds of thousands of masks, face shield, gowns, etc. sent to Washington State. With more coming.

Mark said...

Honeywell producing millions of masks.

Spiros said...

Professor Althouse, I don't think 80% of the population will get Covid 19. I'm not a statistician but I do know that "exponential growth" sounds super scary. But viral growth isn't exponential growth. Viral growth actually follows a logistic curve. At the inflection point on this curve, the number of new daily infections will be equal and then they will start to decline. When everything is said and done, the total number of infections should be about twice the aggregate total at the inflection point.

So are we at the inflection point? Maybe, new cases have been about the same for three days. So Covid 19 cases might top out at just 64,000 in America (the total current cases, 32,000, times two). Or maybe we get at the inflection point later next week. Whatever it is, we're not going to be anywhere near 240 million Covid 19 cases. Also, I think there is a bit of natural immunity in the population and that should also act as brake on Covid 19. This virus doesn't seem to have a clear run.

(I think that this is the sort of number crunching that Michael Levitt, a nobel laureate, used to predict the "end" of the coronavirus crisis in China. There, about 3% of the Wuhan population got infected. I know the Chinese took very "aggressive" actions, but their cities are breeding grounds for these sorts of diseases. I think we'll do better than the Chinese. I hope so.)

daskol said...

Tail risk: you protect against not what is probably, but what is plausible or possible. Millions of deaths are very unlikely, but possible, so you take measures to bring that probability as close to zero as possible. That's the argument for bold action in a nutshell. That's also in line with the notion than panic is not the problem, but actually helpful at this stage, as overreaction is better than under reacting, and our tendency would be to under react. Our foremost public intellectuals of tail risk like Nassim Taleb, Yaneer Bar Yam, Joe Norman and Harry Crane are all calling for measures beyond what we've taken so far. They're calling for a 5 week lockdown. I wonder if it would be better economically also to take these fairly extreme measures for a circumscribed period of time, rather than backing into the same thing slowly over the next several weeks. I highly doubt that we're going to be able to relieve the pressure after 9 more days of social distancing, given the way things look on our coasts.

Stay Safe said...

On this Sunday afternoon my local am radio station replayed Rush Limbaugh’s program from two Thursday’s ago. (March 12.) He spent three hours making fun of how (in his opinion) officials were overreacting. He claimed the covid-19 virus was not nearly as bad as the 2009 swine flu during the Obama administration. Limbaugh spent three hours telling his Dittoheads to not take this seriously.

He will have directly caused the death of many of his listeners.

Rush Limbaugh is the man Donald Trump recently bestowed the Medal of Freedom.

daskol said...

Basically the 5 week lockdown would be a federally enforced version of what the most affected states are doing now, except hopefully more effective, since many people disregarded the most important guidance on maintaining social distance during the beautiful NYC weather yesterday. It's cold again today, so people are probably doing better.

daskol said...

The argument for more drastic action sooner is that it becomes more expensive in every way to have the same impact if we delay action. Our public intellectuals of tail risk mgmt say that had we taken action in late January or even February, it would have been much cheaper to have a profound beneficial impact. I find that argument compelling, but I also think it's positively un-American to take such drastic coercive measures on such scant information. I suspect we're doing about as much as people will put up with, and I don't know that these public intellectuals of tail risk are factoring in the corrosive effects of widespread noncompliance and other social issues that will manifest in an even heavier handed govt response.

Mark said...

So, "Stay Safe" -- you spent three hours listening to Rush Limbaugh?

Of course, he had guest hosts all last week.

Stay Safe said...

Mark, I was doing a woodworking project in my shop and I left the radio on. This replay was a show from ten days ago. I suspect that the local staffer who works at this radio station knew what she was doing by picking this show out for rebroadcasting.

narciso said...

no that's ridiculous, that's flatlining, with hope we can come out right at the end, I don't like those odds,

ot, someone's whose not having a good month, Harvey Weinstein,

MeatPopscicle1234 said...
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Leland said...

Althouse and others; I'm not here to attack the gracious host. I agree with others that I think either she's trying to prove a point I'm missing or is being manipulated a bit by the media she is consuming. I suspect it is the former.

I do risk analysis for a living. I know my personal opinions about the economy can bias my sense of what should be done in relation to the virus. But so far, I'm participating in the staying at home and social distancing. I just don't know how long this quarantine can be sustained in mass.

That said, we can look at data of the virus so far. And that data doesn't support the notion of millions of death. We might not even have a million deaths world wide, and I base that on typical flu related deaths and then doubling their high than normal numbers. 1918 Spanish Flu would represent worse situation and yes, 20 million reportedly died world wide from it. This doesn't look like the Spanish flu.

Banjo said...

Contemporary accounts of the Spanish Flu (actually the Kansas Flu if you want to be accurate because a military conscript from there brought it to the trenches) say death could follow 12 hours after the first symptoms. One particularly arresting account I read said a South African Army soldier took his place when the conductor on a trolley collapsed and died. Then the driver died and he took his place. Five passengers died before the trolley reached its destination five kilometers away. People literally dropped dead on the sidewalks. There was wartime censorship in this country and in Europe except for Spain, neutral in the war, where the pandemic was reported in the newspapers as a matter of course. Thus, Spain got stuck with the blame as the point of origin.

FullMoon said...

That said, we can look at data of the virus so far. And that data doesn't support the notion of millions of death. We might not even have a million deaths world wide, and I base that on typical flu related deaths and then doubling their high than normal numbers. 1918 Spanish Flu would represent worse situation and yes, 20 million reportedly died world wide from it. This doesn't look like the Spanish flu.

And then, the alarmists can claim the over reaction worked. And the normal people can say it was over kill.

Everybody wins. Except those lower level working people and business owners. But, in time, they might find a job, or return to the old one, and catch up on the bills and pay down the credit cards.

FullMoon said...

Mark, I was doing a woodworking project in my shop and I left the radio on. This replay was a show from ten days ago. I suspect that the local staffer who works at this radio station knew what she was doing by picking this show out for rebroadcasting.

Which station? Let's ask the staffer..

paminwi said...

Well Leland you sound like a voice of reason to me.
Too many hyperventilated in the beginning and it hard for me to refer to them as time has gone on as someone I will believe.
I know that everything I thought about government run programs has come to fruition.
Governments are not nimble when it comes to decision making.
And this has proven to be true.
I can believe that is why Trump is so frustrated.
I can like people like Dr. Fauci just fine but his response to the combo drugs suggestion/proposal was a typical government response.
My paraphrasing: “ the suggestion of these drugs is one that is out there but I am disinclined to believe it because multi year studies have not been done on this combination of drugs”.
It’s the same for drugs that are “right to try” drugs. Other countries may have had success with certain drugs for a disease but it is never enough for our FDA. I just don’t believe they are the only medical experts in the world.

Michael said...

Tossing around numbers of 11 million using arithmetic is not helpful.

Birkel said...

I guarantee that 330 million Americans will die from causes.
And the more people are born the worse the numbers will get.

Birth causes death.
Therefore abortion saves lives.
QED
/Leftist

Amadeus 48 said...

Althouse—I don’t think you are thinking about this right.

There are going to be drug therapies that work and there will probably be a vaccine-perhaps not fully tested and so leading to some bad outcomes, as every vaccine does. The medical equipment shortages are being addressed as we speak, and soon there will be more ventilators, swabs, test kits, masks gowns, ICU units, etc. than the world has ever seen before. This is what we did in the Second World War. We produced so many planes, ships, tanks, trucks, bombs, guns and rifles that we swamped both the Axis and the Japanese Empire. We produced so many planes that they pushed the used ones off carriers in the Pacific every five weeks. That is what we are going to do to this nasty Wuhan virus. We may have stalled the economic engine for a few weeks, but it will come roaring back to life.

And hysterics to the contrary not withstanding, Trump is not going to intern the Chinese the way FDR, that great liberal, interned the Japanese.

All in, there aren’t going to be more deaths in the US than there have been in prior exotic flu epidemics since the end of WWII.

You need to get out more. I know Meade had the Fujian flu because he said so the other day. I am sure that has had a big impact. But this is NOT and existential threat. It is a public health issue that is going to be addressed like no other. And then we can get back to the business at hand—making America even greater.

Birkel said...

I remember the great Blog panic of 2009 when the H1N1 virus was infecting 1.4 billion people worldwide, 60 million domestically.

Who here remembers that?

Amadeus 48 said...

And as to the Spanish flu, there were no antiviral medicines, there were no vaccines. There were no antibiotics. They did the opposite of social distancing. There was a war on, and infected people were crammed together and sent all over the world in trains and ships. They were only fifty years away from the miasma theory of contagion. No one had ever seen a virus. There were no ventilators. There was nothing they could do but wait for the ill to die or get better.

The best thing people can do is stop watching cable news and reading the national newspapers. As Althouse should say, they aren’t helping.

Go to the CDC website again, and read what you should be doing.

walter said...

BioBreakout
Face with medical mask
@BioBreakout
·
1h
HT @sentivcapital
#COVID19 What $GILD actually said: stopping compassionate use program due to transition to expanded access (many more patients will get access to Rem)...now read that again in all caps. Also, here's the horse's mouth:
https://twitter.com/BioBreakout/status/1241865184098029570/photo/1

Amadeus 48 said...

That 11 million number is preposterous. That was not helping.

Spiros Pappas said...

Statisticians have their own chat rooms. Some of these people are claiming that deaths should peak next Wednesday or Thursday or Friday. We know that deaths represent infections from 14 days earlier. After that we are a downward path. With new treatments being developed and a vaccine sometime later in the year, I think were going to be okay. The shutdown will end in ten to fifteen days.

I know we're all concerned about our elderly parents and at risk individuals. But we're not really freaking out. But I interact with a lot of working class people. People who didn't do so well in school. They don't make great decisions. And they deal with grinding economic insecurity everyday. Covid 19 has hit these people hard. These people are terrified. The young seem to be constantly in the verge of tears. It is very, very sad. What a tragedy and a disgrace.

Amadeus 48 said...

Stay Safe = unsafe. Read those first four or five posts again. Does the concept of rolcon mean anything to anyone?
Also, given his awkward phraseology, I doubt English is Stay Safe’s first language— not that there is anything wrong with that.

Birkel said...

If the young are terrified it is because the press has been irresponsible.

Compare the reaction to 60 MILLION H1N1 infections in 2009.

Pants were nicely creased.

Amadeus 48 said...

Spiros—I am with you all the way on your comment at 7:52. I think things will come roaring back to life. For better or worse, we have a POTUS who is a promoter above all, who wants to be re-elected, and who believes in the social healing power of full employment. We need to get past the high point of this epidemic, and I think things will take off. I hope so for the sake of your friends and mine.

Spiros Pappas said...

Mr. Birkel, they're terrified. My tenants, for example, are wearing masks and surgical gloves. They're wiping done door knobs, doing hundreds of loads of laundry and engaging in all sorts of bizarre behavior. They're shell shocked and I don't get it at all.

walter said...

Bill Kristol
@BillKristol
Hey @RandPaul
: "Coronavirus testing in Kentucky is still reserved for those who need it the most...Doctors are following federal guidelines that prioritize people who have been hospitalized, those with the worst symptoms and those who are at highest risk."

Mark said...

Could it be, SP, that they've been pampered their whole life and now reality is smacking them in the face?

I don't think any of us expected precisely this. But many have understood the possibility that some disaster could happen at any time.

9-11 especially taught people that the world can change in an instant and that you should always be prepared and have an emergency preparedness plan. A whole generation, however, has been taught that if something bad happens, they should hide under their desk.

Mark said...

They've been taught to be terrified and shell shocked.

walter said...

Tim Spivey
@timspivey
·
5h
Replying to
@BillKristol
and
@RandPaul
You mean like 57-year-old Senators that have had part of their lungs removed? Yeah. This is the kind of crazy unfettered politicization of things leads you to. Ridiculous, Bill.

Leland said...

Thanks paminwi. I was just visiting with 2 folks this afternoon in the medical field. One a hospital manager and another a manager of a pharmacy. And we were just talking about some of the numbers, so when I see 11 million; it is jarring.

FullMoon said...

All in, there aren’t going to be more deaths in the US than there have been in prior exotic flu epidemics since the end of WWII.

There may be a larger percentage of deaths from virus due to most survivors not being tested at all. Then pro-shutdown people can point to the statistic as affirmation.

L.A. stopping tests of all but those appearing sick but able to be helped.

LA gives up on containing...

Amadeus 48 said...

Walter—Billy Kristol is mentally ill. Rand Paul, of course, was in DC when he was tested, and he definitely would be in a high priority group in Kentucky because he had half of one of his lungs removed after his crazy neighbor assaulted him, breaking six of the senator’s ribs.

I find Kristol both sad and contemptible. He certainly has made himself irrelevant.

Meade said...

Amadeus is absolutely right. We are going to win this war, this total war, this world war. We will win, we will re-elect this great President and we will make our country greater than ever. I love America and Americans.

walter said...

Amadeus 48,
I hope I didn't imply otherwise.
Just a bit entertaining somehow to see Billy's current condition from time to time.

Michael said...

Meade
I highly recommend “The Splendid and the Vile” by Erik Larson. The valor of the people of London, of England, during the blitz. Truly moving and inspirational in these strange times. We have nothing to fear like they feared. Night after night for months on end.

Thistlerose said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Thistlerose said...

Exaggerate much?

That there is a large number of cases in our biggest, most densely populated city is a matter of arithmetic, and says nothing about the inevitable advance of the virus to less populated areas (most of which lack the medical infrastructure of more urban areas). The implicit message of this comment is that things in the rest of the country are fine and will remain so if left to their own devices. This sort of message will get a lot of people killed.

New York Population 8.75 million US population 320 million. New York has 2.67 percent of the us population but 40 percent of the cases. That's the "arithmetic". Telling people that they can not go to work to provide essential services will not kill a lot of people. People with the virus will not suddenly get cured if all the doctors, nurses, police, garbage collectors, grocery works and such stay home. You may have an unimportant job that does not have to be done. That doesn't mean the rest of us do and that by doing our jobs we want people to die.

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