Althouse: Boris Johnson tests positive! The number of detected and reported coronavirus cases in the United States is now larger than the number for any other country!

March 27, 2020

Boris Johnson tests positive! The number of detected and reported coronavirus cases in the United States is now larger than the number for any other country!

I'm putting up this post so I can put up the next post without getting the first comment informing me of one of those facts.

Talk about whatever you need to say right now about the coronavirus. I'll have some coronavirus posts soon. This post is here to catch whatever it is you would put in the next comments thread if I didn't put this up.

160 comments:

John Borell said...: God speed, Boris, God speed!; 3/27/20, 7:51 AM
Darrell said...: More tests mean more positives--even false positives. This just means that the US is now testing more people than any other nation.; 3/27/20, 7:52 AM
Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...: Donald J. Trump said ...

Just finished a very good conversation with President Xi of China. Discussed in great detail the CoronaVirus that is ravaging large parts of our Planet. China has been through much & has developed a strong understanding of the Virus. We are working closely together. Much respect!; 3/27/20, 7:54 AM
Shouting Thomas said...: The scientist who predicted 2.2 million deaths in the U.S. now says 20,000. That would make this a more or less normal flu season.

My GP, who is director of infection control at a hospital, says this pandemic has been vastly over exaggerated.

I have two FB friends who are doctors. Both say that this pandemic has been vastly over exaggerated.

Is this Get Trump III? Get Trump I was Russia collusion. Get Trump II was impeachment.

Fabricating hysterias and panics has become the norm in the media and the arts in the digital era. It’s the new economic model.; 3/27/20, 7:55 AM
Darrell said...: You know who's been delivering metric shit tonnes of faulty testing kits all over the world? China, that's who. Like this--https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11266586/spain-faulty-coronavirus-tests-china/; 3/27/20, 7:56 AM
MadisonMan said...: I hope Mr. Johnson has a quick recovery.; 3/27/20, 7:56 AM
BarrySanders20 said...: A lot of people will test positive for the antibodies and never knew they had it. Boris’ case seems mild. Hope it stays that way. This virus ravages some and others are essentially asymptotic. That randomness, and the severity of the effect on doe people is what makes this scary.; 3/27/20, 7:57 AM
TwoAndAHalfCents said...: CNN is ecstatic this morning. Of course.

It's like we're all walking through a dark tunnel together. One person says keep moving, we'll eventually find a way out. Other folks can only harp on how dark the tunnel is and how foolish the person was who said we'd find a way out.; 3/27/20, 8:02 AM
Mike (MJB Wolf) said...: I’ve been using the daily numbers from
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
to track death totals and the rate of increase is slowing. We should hit the top of the curve shortly. My hunch is the 15 Day Plan will be followed by another 15 Day Plan to slowly resume activities in areas it is safe to.; 3/27/20, 8:03 AM
Darkisland said...: The more testing we do the higher the number of cases we will have.

Want to show no new cases? Stop testing.

Simple math.

It's a bullshit news item. Not your fault of course, Ann and thanks for posting

John Henry; 3/27/20, 8:04 AM
Freder Frederson said...: This just means that the US is now testing more people than any other nation.

We are still well behind a lot of countries in tests per capita (which of course is the relevant statistic).; 3/27/20, 8:04 AM
Shouting Thomas said...: The Netflix series "Tiger King" is very instructive in how provoking hysteria and invoking drama have become extremely dangerous. The use of social media to drive people nuts is at the center of this tale of scam artists.

I'm an artist. I'm becoming extremely skeptical of these self-dealing mechanisms of manipulating people to pay attention have become something of a plague in themselves.

The media is financially dependent now on creating and selling panics and hysteria.; 3/27/20, 8:04 AM
Balfegor said...: Re: Darrell:

That's true as far as it goes, but most countries are seeing between a 5-10% positive "hit" rate on tests. New York is >25% (!!). I do think there's probably a nontrivial number of false positives, e.g. Korea tested 300,000 people -- if none of them were infected but the error rate were 1%, then they'd have 3,000 false positives, or potentially the vast majority of asymptomatic cases (their total caseload is ~9,000 cases, many of which have now recovered, or perhaps "recovered" in the case of false positives). But where the US is, largely thanks to NY, the hit rate is so high that the error rate would have to be huge for false positives to make a dent in the numbers.

Here in Tokyo, meanwhile, people went into a little tizzy of panic buying because we have had +40 cases identified three days in a row. Had to cancel my weekend plans. The governor asked us to refrain from going out over the weekend. 外出自粛. People got a bit complacent, stopped wearing masks, gathered in large crowds to admire the cherry blossoms.; 3/27/20, 8:05 AM
Sebastian said...: The people who claim we are at risk of 11M, scratch that, 1M, scratch that, 200K, or "a number" of premature deaths should advocate one major action right now that we on the pro-sanity side would agree with.

The concrete problem for U.S. hospitals is a likely spike in the need for ventilators. New ventilators are already being produced by top-notch inventors. But in the short run a likely bottleneck is the need for trained personnel. One obvious solution is to mobilize young high-school and college students at no risk, and get them up to speed very quickly to serve as a health reserve army in the coming months.; 3/27/20, 8:06 AM
Leland said...: I discovered yesterday that the coronavirus map by John Hopkins is showing my county has zero recoveries; however my county's health department list of cases shows over a dozen recoveries. Oddly enough, the county's health department website even shows the John Hopkins map at the top of their website just now.

I'm not providing a link to my county, because I think others should check their own data, but if you don't believe me, I'm in Harris County, Texas.; 3/27/20, 8:06 AM
Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...: Some thoughts from Fauci.; 3/27/20, 8:11 AM
TwoAndAHalfCents said...: ST - what do you think of "Tiger King"? I had a friend highly recommend it, but haven't gotten around to watching yet.; 3/27/20, 8:12 AM
Harsh Pencil said...: When studying crime statistics, a lot of researchers focus on homicides because there is less variance across places in how they are recorded -- a guy with a knife in his back or a bullet in the back of his head is a homicide, whereas rapes and thefts can have different definitions and reporting rates (or MORE different definitions and reporting rates) across places.

So I focus on deaths when looking at these statistics. Italy had its peak (so far) in daily deaths on March 21st (793 deaths). Since then
it's been 651, 601, 743, 683, 712. That's five days in a row below peak (so far) deaths. They are not monotonically decreasing, but exponential growth would have them growing by a constant percentage (and thus a higher absolute number) every day.; 3/27/20, 8:12 AM
Bill, Republic of Texas said...: I don't subscribe to the get Trump narrative for a simple reason. The economic shutdown has been worldwide.

Why would all these other countries potentially destroy their economy to get Trump?

I think a simpler answer is the spread rate and severity of the WuFlu scared the shit out of the people. Maybe the scare was justified or just panic. Who knows at this point.; 3/27/20, 8:13 AM
Browndog said...: If you live in Michigan, and you or a loved one is infected with this potentially lethal disease, you’re out of luck.

Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s Department of Licensing and Regulatory Affairs literally threatened all doctors and pharmacists in the state who prescribe or dispense hydroxychloroquine to treat COVID-19.

The agency’s March 24 letter warns physicians and pharmacists of professional consequences for the prescribing of hydroxychloroquine (and chloroquine). Beyond the rational recommendation against hoarding as production of this medication needs to be ramped up, the letter deviates into open threats of “administrative action” against the licenses of doctors that prescribe hydroxychloroquine.

The letter also instructs pharmacists to ignore physician orders for this medication. Due to the debate over a pharmacist’s right to refuse to fill medications that go against their religious beliefs, this could place pharmacists in the unprecedented position of being told that they must fill prescriptions that violate their “conscience (religious belief)” but must not fill prescriptions to treat COVID-19.

Even worse, the letter indicates health care providers are “required to report” their fellow physicians who are prescribing these medications. This draconian measure carries ominous Gestapo-like overtones of neighbor reporting neighbor to “authorities.”

-Detroit News; 3/27/20, 8:14 AM
Darkisland said...: This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.2

Dr Fauci and others new England Journal of Medicine march 25. Emph added

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387

John Henry; 3/27/20, 8:15 AM
Shouting Thomas said...: Tiger King was absolutely enthralling. Nothing but villains all around. Even the "good guys," namely the animal activists were con artists selling a scam.

It was full of characters like the ones I met constantly in the arts scene in NYC and Woodstock, people who cultivated their reputation as "characters" in order to advance their careers as artists and activists.

One of the most fascinating parts of the series is that these scam artists were incredibly skilled at convincing young, idealistic people to work for them for free. This is common in the arts and among activist groups.; 3/27/20, 8:15 AM
Shouting Thomas said...: Why would all these other countries potentially destroy their economy to get Trump?

My unsubstantiated theory: China is retaliating against Trump for the trade war he precipitated and for his attempt to repatriate industry from China to the U.S.

The Democrats got sucked in by their TDS.; 3/27/20, 8:17 AM
Darkisland said...: I see arm beat me to it

Though without pointing out Fauci's estimate of like a bad flu season which ithink is the nut of it

John Henry; 3/27/20, 8:18 AM
Howard said...: Bill Republic of Texas: exactamundo.; 3/27/20, 8:18 AM
Fernandinande said...: In S. Colorado, SARS-2 testing consists of testing for flu, and if you feel sick but don't have the flu, then you're a "presumptive positive" for SARS-2. Izzat bogus or what?; 3/27/20, 8:18 AM
Balfegor said...: Re: Freder

I don't know that tests per capita really matters, unless you're trying to do statistical sample (which could actually be useful). As far as I am aware, every country is targeting its testing. Korea, for example, probably has the highest tests per capita for a large country, but I think something like 2/3rds of those tests were testing 200,000 members of the Christian group at the centre of the Daegu cluster. The testing wasn't a free for all -- they identified the cluster where they had lost control and launched mass testing in an effort to get out ahead of the spread of the virus.

With respect to the US, maybe that's a distinction without a difference because none of the clusters is under control at all, and last I checked we were still looking for the epidemiological links in 80% of cases. That's basically just random at this point. I think the Western European countries are in the same boat, just worse on a per capita infection basis. But where the disease is mostly under control, they haven't done tests just to run up the numbers, but as part of a comprehensive strategy to track down and stop clusters from spreading.; 3/27/20, 8:20 AM
Howard said...: Okay shouting Thomas, I'll bite. why then would the Chinese risk destabilizing their own country just as a retaliatory measure against Trump. It's not like there's some Buddhist monk on a Saigon Street in 1967... self-immolation is just not the ChiCom style I've grown to love and respect over the years; 3/27/20, 8:20 AM
Fernandinande said...: instructs pharmacists to ignore physician orders

Yesterday I spoke to a pharmacist who laughed out loud at the CDC "Ha! They really fucked up!"; 3/27/20, 8:21 AM
rcocean said...: Boris Johnson well that's interesting. Of course, he's not been hospitalized, given the low risk of that happening. BTW, every test gives "false positives".; 3/27/20, 8:21 AM
stevew said...: All the best to PM Johnson, may he be asymptomatic.

Said by Gary Gulman on the radio this morning:

"Boris Johnson has been confirmed infected with the virus. Great. Now I have to figure out the last time I was in close proximity to him."; 3/27/20, 8:22 AM
Bill, Republic of Texas said...: ST --

If China did this as retaliation, they will regret it.

Once this virus is contained, I hope we will have a serious conversation in this country about China. Obviously Communist China is a threat to the world order. They lied and covered up this disease until it impacted the entire world. We also have to make laws returning US jobs. It is unacceptable we have shipped our pharmaceutical manufacturing to China (or anywhere else).

I think the decoupling will gather more strength because of the WuFlu.; 3/27/20, 8:25 AM
rcocean said...: The agency’s March 24 letter warns physicians and pharmacists of professional consequences for the prescribing of hydroxychloroquine (and chloroquine). Beyond the rational recommendation against hoarding as production of this medication needs to be ramped up, the letter deviates into open threats of “administrative action” against the licenses of doctors that prescribe hydroxychloroquine.

Why are individual Governors doing this? This would seem to be a policy matter that should be set nation-wide. The Supply is nation-wide. Of course, this should prevent Doctors from prescribing it as a PREVENTATIVE, which is not useful. And if it does work, we need all the supply for people who are Chinese Virus sick, or need it for malaria.; 3/27/20, 8:25 AM
Darkisland said...: Howard said...

the ChiCom style I've grown to love and respect over the years

I hope that was ironic.

As to why, the are big believers in Lenin

"Worse is better"

Meaning, the worse things get, the more people will clamor for communism

John Henry; 3/27/20, 8:26 AM
Shouting Thomas said...: @Howard

You're assuming a degree of rational thinking and moral substance about communist China that, I think, is invalid.

Remember. Cutting the organs out of living, screaming un-anesthsized people for the sake of generating hard cash from foreign medical tourists is an industry in China.

China is a totalitarian communist state. Your assumption of rational goals is not valid.; 3/27/20, 8:27 AM
rcocean said...: England is more draconian then the USA in enforcing the ban. Bobbies are chasing people out of parks, breaking up "Sunbathers" and tossing people off the Trains. Its a nice change from arresting people for saying something "racist".; 3/27/20, 8:28 AM
Mary Beth said...: My unsubstantiated theory: China is retaliating against Trump for the trade war he precipitated and for his attempt to repatriate industry from China to the U.S.

I hope this has made more people see why it's important to have much of our manufacturing here rather than in China. Chy-nah.; 3/27/20, 8:29 AM
Jersey Fled said...: Freder said:

We are still well behind a lot of countries in tests per capita (which of course is the relevant statistic).

Name them. You may be right, but I'm getting tired of people throwing statements like this around without providing data to back it up.; 3/27/20, 8:30 AM
Mike (MJB Wolf) said...: Even the Chicken Littles have started easing off the apocalyptic imagery and supposing an outcome more like a typical flu season, with pockets (NYC, Everett, WA) of crisis level hospital crowding. If the goal was to flatten the curve we will be able to declare victory soon. That could jump start the economy and help avoid a recession.; 3/27/20, 8:30 AM
Francisco D said...: Bill, Republic of Texas said: I think a simpler answer is the spread rate and severity of the WuFlu scared the shit out of the people. Maybe the scare was justified or just panic. Who knows at this point.

There is an awful lot that we don't know, but people are drawn to definite opinions, even when the facts are unclear. In other words, many have a low tolerance for ambiguity.

We will eventually figure this out. Until then, be calm and move forward with your lives the best you can.

This is a good time to plant a garden - at least in southern Arizona.; 3/27/20, 8:31 AM
rcocean said...: The Chi-Coms are desperately hoping Biden gets elected in November. He's their pal, and Trump definitely is NOT.; 3/27/20, 8:32 AM
Darkisland said...: Bill, Republic of Texas said...

ST --

It is unacceptable we have shipped our pharmaceutical manufacturing to China (or anywhere else).

I think the problem is less pharmaceutical manufacturering, though that too is a problem.

The real problem seems to be raw material manufacturing.

That too would not be as big a problem if we had outsourced to multiple countries so that no one country held a stranglehold.

John Henry; 3/27/20, 8:34 AM
Static Ping said...: The United States has the largest number of reported cases. China is almost certainly lying about their numbers, so who is really #1 is anyone's guess. We also don't know what is happening in Iran; they may be getting mauled for all we can tell.; 3/27/20, 8:36 AM
BarrySanders20 said...: "One obvious solution is to mobilize young high-school and college students at no risk, and get them up to speed very quickly to serve as a health reserve army in the coming months."

We will call them the Trumpler Youth!

Joking. That's actually a good idea, though if I were dictator, I would command all current med students into the role first. Then I would issue some other police state decrees just for fun, like the Islamic clerics did in Iran when they said no laughing because That's Not Funny.

If you want funny go to this link: https://digg.com/2020/trump-impression-coronavirus; 3/27/20, 8:36 AM
Rick said...: Darrell said...
You know who's been delivering metric shit tonnes of faulty testing kits all over the world? China, that's who.

Revealingly Anne Appelbaum hasn't revised her opinion that China's donation shows them to be the true superpower. Why it almost seems left wingers are only interested in political spin which supports their politics.; 3/27/20, 8:40 AM
exhelodrvr1 said...: Bill,
"I don't subscribe to the get Trump narrative for a simple reason. "

The spin on/reaction to virus news by the media and the Democrats is clearly done in a way to put the President in the most negative light; 3/27/20, 8:42 AM
Howard said...: I'm sorry Thomas but you are mistaken. The primary function of a totalitarian state is its own survival. Why would they cut their own legs out from under them if they wanted to survive at all costs?; 3/27/20, 8:45 AM
Ray - SoCal said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; 3/27/20, 8:45 AM
Browndog said...: We are still well behind a lot of countries in tests per capita (which of course is the relevant statistic).

Unfair comparison.

United States started with zero test kits, and had to start from scratch. other countries were able to hit the ground running.; 3/27/20, 8:48 AM
Ray - SoCal said...: Using data from:
https://covidtracking.com/us-daily/

I put it into a spreadsheet and added some columns to figure out the testing status.

TESTS DONE:
US did on March 26, 97,806 tests! This is a huge increase from the 866 tests done March 4. And a 27% increase from yesterday's 78,820 tests done.

TESTING INCREASE:
Tests done are increasing about 20% per day over the past week. In the past week, the US quadrupled the amount of tests done.

% POSITIVES:
Positives have been running about 15% daily, since the start of the data from March 8.; 3/27/20, 8:49 AM
Rick said...: self-immolation is just not the ChiCom style I've grown to love and respect over the years

Jailing people who threaten political harmony is a principle throughout left wing governments from China to the Obama Administration.; 3/27/20, 8:49 AM
Howard said...: That was tongue-in-cheek John Henry. However I strongly disagree with your conclusion. China only real ideology right now is global trade and enrichment. Why would they put all of that in Jeopardy over the rantings of a Cheeto faced madman from Queens. I think maybe one reason for making this error in judgment is you want to believe that Trump is so special that he shook China to its knees.; 3/27/20, 8:51 AM
Shouting Thomas said...: The primary function of a totalitarian state is its own survival.

This is a survival strategy.

The Chicoms have shown that they are willing to murder millions of their own people, in addition to murdering people thru organ harvesting, for a future goal of economic supremacy.

The Chicoms might also be willing to endure a period of economic stress as a weapon against the U.S., under the assumption that they will come out on top in the long run.

After all, the Chicom's leaders don't have to run for re-election. Their populace has to put up with whatever the leaders decide to do.

As I said, this is a survival strategy for them. They are confident they can out wait and out sacrifice the U.S. because we have to respond to the economic and political demands of the general populace. They don't.

At least, that's my theory.; 3/27/20, 8:52 AM
Darkisland said...: Howard said...

I'm sorry Thomas but you are mistaken. The primary function of a totalitarian state is its own survival.

Not just totalitarian, Howard. Pretty much all states.

The us is very explicit about it in the presidential oath.

I do solemnly swear (or affirm) that I will faithfully execute the Office of President of the United States, and will to the best of my Ability, preserve, protect and defend the Constitution of the United States."

Not the people, the "state" as embodied in the constitution.

John Henry; 3/27/20, 8:53 AM
Shouting Thomas said...: I think maybe one reason for making this error in judgment is you want to believe that Trump is so special that he shook China to its knees.

Oddly, that's precisely what I think.; 3/27/20, 8:53 AM
Howard said...: You know the drill Trump has to be the bride at every wedding, corpse at every funeral...; 3/27/20, 8:53 AM
Dear corrupt left, go F yourselves said...: the English. Gotta be polite above all else.

Idiot!; 3/27/20, 8:54 AM
Howard said...: Thomas, I should know you well because we have been yelling at each other for many years now.; 3/27/20, 8:54 AM
Dear corrupt left, go F yourselves said...: We're all gonna get it at some point. Like a cold or a flu.
Eventually we all get it.

We might die.; 3/27/20, 8:55 AM
tim maguire said...: Darrell said...
More tests mean more positives--even false positives. This just means that the US is now testing more people than any other nation.

The US also has the highest population of the industrialized nations. If you're going to do a numbers comparison, it should be per capita. But then, I think there is little value in doing comparisons.

As we test more, the positives will go way up but the death rate should go way down. At the moment, I expect the final death rate to be in line with the flu, but I also think we are focusing too much on the death rate when there are other serious long-term consequences to contracting the virus.; 3/27/20, 8:56 AM
Shouting Thomas said...: I learned to like you and appreciate your morbid sense of humor, Howard.; 3/27/20, 8:56 AM
Bill, Republic of Texas said...: The spin on/reaction to virus news by the media and the Democrats is clearly done in a way to put the President in the most negative light

I agree 100%; 3/27/20, 8:57 AM
JML said...: I agree with Shouting Thomas. China is in it for the long term. Pain today is easily justified in the long term if their goal is economic and military domination. The collateral damage caused by this is acceptable to their regime.; 3/27/20, 8:58 AM
CapitalistRoader said...: The number of detected and reported coronavirus cases in the United States is now larger than the number for any other country!

Detected is the operative word. Due to its massive population and totalitarian muzzling of its health care professionals, my guess is that the PRC has by far more undetected cases than any country in the world.; 3/27/20, 8:58 AM
JML said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; 3/27/20, 8:58 AM
Dear corrupt left, go F yourselves said...: Don't worry. Super-Biden will save us by making sure his family bank accounts are stuffed with Chi-Com mega bucks.; 3/27/20, 8:59 AM
tim maguire said...: Shouting Thomas said...Is this Get Trump III? Get Trump I was Russia collusion. Get Trump II was impeachment.

Too US-focused. The panic started long before things got bad in the US and Trump is not one to give in to panic. He has the best information. If he thinks it's real, then the best current evidence is that it's real. (And if he is ready to start talking ending lock downs, then the best current evidence is that it's time to start talking about ending the lock downs.); 3/27/20, 8:59 AM
Shouting Thomas said...: You know the drill Trump has to be the bride at every wedding, corpse at every funeral...

This doesn’t differentiate him from any other president. Presidents are not known to be shrinking violets.

A massive ego is a requirement of the job.; 3/27/20, 8:59 AM
Browndog said...: BleachBit-and-Hammers said...

We're all gonna get it at some point. Like a cold or a flu.
Eventually we all get it.

Exposed.

I thought that was obvious from the start.; 3/27/20, 9:00 AM
Ryan said...: For a very long long time, I think it was even in Art of the Deal, Trump said we should all stop shaking hands. He's way ahead of everyone on this.; 3/27/20, 9:01 AM
Gusty Winds said...: When I'm looking for good data, I rely on the Chinese Communist Government because Jim Acosta, Morning Joe, and Joy Behar tell me to.; 3/27/20, 9:03 AM
tim maguire said...: TwoAndAHalfCents said...
ST - what do you think of "Tiger King"?

I've only seen the first episode, but it tells me that the people who keep lots of big cats are nuts. The environmentalist is a shyster, but the Lion King? While I might love to have a beer with him, otherwise I don't want to be in the same county with him.; 3/27/20, 9:03 AM
Howard said...: Thomas you were just blind from the reality. It is that very pathological center of the multiverse trait that makes Trump so successful. You might say it's his superpower; 3/27/20, 9:03 AM
Howard said...: Believe it or not you and I are more alike than different, Thomas. I got to tell you I am especially jealous of your being quarantined with the grandkids. That would be a dream come true.; 3/27/20, 9:06 AM
Shouting Thomas said...: It is that very pathological center of the multiverse trait that makes Trump so successful.

The President of the U.S. is the center of the known multiverse. Whether that is pathological is a matter of opinion.; 3/27/20, 9:06 AM
Laslo Spatula said...: For:

• those who believe strongly that all measures must be taken to minimize the virus spread, and;

• are comfortably well off (no personal need for employment);

What have you done to help?

I assume avoiding social contact is a given, but how many have:

• donated to food banks?

• donated blood?

• donated to charities?

• volunteered time to some form of support?

I am sincerely curious of how and where people are sacrificing.

The idea of World War II's war bonds comes to mind, but I don't have the time to develop that thought.

I am Laslo.; 3/27/20, 9:07 AM
Shouting Thomas said...: I'm having a hell of a good time with the grandkids, Howard.

Beautiful day in the Hudson Valley. We're going to get outside and play and scream and run and play tricks on one another.; 3/27/20, 9:08 AM
Darrell said...: Stop spreading rumors that semen is a cure.; 3/27/20, 9:12 AM
Ray - SoCal said...: If the amount of infected can be estimated by taking the amount dead, and then multiplying it by 1000, then 1163 * 10000 = 1,163,000. Which means we have found only under 10% of the infected in the US so far.

Reference for why use 1,000 for multiplier:
https://www.unz.com/runz/correctly-estimating-coronavirus-infections/

Disclaimer - Big SWAG:

Testing as a method to stop the spread in the CoronaVirus in the US won't be effective for a while. If the US can get up to 300,000 tests per day, which may happen in a week, then this becomes a possibility. With this huge of numbers, I am not sure the US can do enough testing. I don't know what the eventual capacity of the US is for doing tests.

For whatever reason, CA has only done 20,000 tests so far, but has 57,400 pending. The 45 minute test will start getting used Monday, so hopefully that will change things. Interesting that California has the majority, look like over 90%, of the pending tests in the US. Strange...; 3/27/20, 9:14 AM
Ignatius Acton Chesterton OCD said...: What bothers me about this coronavirus response is that it seems sensationalized. The news on it doesn’t seem serious — the newsreaders and “experts” seem giddy with excitement. Childish high school nonsense.

With all the uncertainty, authorities are choosing the safest route. That means shelter-in-place. But there seems to be little consideration of economic balance — the economic devastation in the wake if all this. For all the usual grumbling people drone on about how much work sucks, people need work to feel productive and make a contribution. This safest route of stay-at-home is going to make people crazy.

What we need is for someone to set some goalposts for what a WIN might look like so we have a clear measurable as a gauge — to balance public health with economic success. 46,000 seasonal flu deaths last year (and many tens of thousands over previous years) shows us we’ll never be completely safe from viruses. “Every death is a tragedy” from a national policy standpoint is insane. People will die. If the goal is to “flatten the curve,” I want to be clear as to what that number is when it’s sufficiently flat. If it’s a New Cases bell curve on a sustained downside slope, I’d like to know that metric and how long the trend must continue.

These metric-based targets are not unreasonable. Indeed, they are the only thing that will rein-in this panic. And it is a panic. And authorities shutting people in and telling them they cannot even go outside (Chicago mayor yesterday) shows a totalitarian temptation we should all be uncomfortable with. Absolute safety is impossible, and beware of what’s being sold to you for your own good when no one seems to know shit about what’s really going on. And the government encouraging people to spy on neighbors is just plain creepy. Stasi-like.

We have to standardize the routine so we can pay attention to the exceptions. This one-size-all, hysteria-inducing lockdown shows no end in sight. The liberal solution to every problem is a government program, and if that program doesn’t work, they want is MORE of it.

Lastly, going back the sensationalism, $25 million for the Kennedy Center in a coronavirus rescue package is unserious. If public officials have priorities like this, why should I heed their proclamations? And it’s not just one example...; 3/27/20, 9:18 AM
narciso said...: the infrastructure of the testing apparatus, operating through 80 year old rules, and mandated to be funneled through Obamacare, is all wrong for this,; 3/27/20, 9:21 AM
buster said...: Why does India have fewer than 800 reported cases? Source: John's Hopins Covid1 Dashboard.; 3/27/20, 9:22 AM
Tim said...: China can't feed its own population. A few million deaths is nothing to them. The only problem is if that info gets out. Trump HAS put China's nuts in a wringer over trade and the aggressive move to repatriate manufacturing. I think this will cause more Americans to accept the slightly higher prices on non-China produced goods, particularly if made in USA. Apple's iphone can be made here for $1k without using slave labor. The press (and the Democrats, but I repeat myself) have been all in on TDS for 4 years so this is just another attempt to get Trump. Trump really has exposed the globalist/totalitarian left.; 3/27/20, 9:23 AM
I Have Misplaced My Pants said...: I agree, Ignatius. We need some firm answers as to what conditions need to be met for a return to normalcy.; 3/27/20, 9:24 AM
Ken B said...: Laslo
My wife and I spent the day doing a route for a food bank food drive 10 days ago, before retreating into our cave. My wife wrote a check for the dreaded Salvation Army. She donated blood two weeks ago. I am currently ineligible to give blood.; 3/27/20, 9:25 AM
Jeff said...: Stop spreading rumors that semen is a cure.
Well, we do know that men are getting sicker than women...; 3/27/20, 9:25 AM
buster said...: Why does India have fewer than 800 reported cases? Source: John's Hopkins Covid19 Dashboard.; 3/27/20, 9:26 AM
exhelodrvr1 said...: "Stop spreading rumors that semen is a cure."

DUH!! It's BAT semen that is the cure!! They keep leaving that out!!; 3/27/20, 9:27 AM
AllenS said...: ... coronavirus cases in the United States is now larger than the number for any other country!

... and very few have died. A lot of us know why, and that's because this flu/virus, is gay.

People who are dying of it, are elderly, and have pre-existing medical conditions, which would kill them within about a year, even if they didn't catch this weak ass flu.

I'm going to go to the Chinese restaurant again today. No fear.; 3/27/20, 9:28 AM
Meade said...: I donated blood in January. Ready to donate again whenever it becomes safe to go in.; 3/27/20, 9:28 AM
Howard said...: That sounds great Thomas. I find that it is the playing of tricks that really helps to sharpen the mind of a developing kid. It keeps them on their toes.; 3/27/20, 9:28 AM
Meade said...: "No [cough, cough...] fear."; 3/27/20, 9:30 AM
Howard said...: We should all be more like Allen S. He sounds like a college sophomore on spring break in Miami Beach.; 3/27/20, 9:31 AM
Ken B said...: Laslo
Why don’t you ask a similar question of those on the other side? The ones who think the real threat is the temporary closures. Have they donated to help the unemployed, etc.; 3/27/20, 9:32 AM
Meade said...: a college sophomore on spring break in Miami Beach heading for the cruise ship buffet; 3/27/20, 9:32 AM
jaydub said...: Some observations and a few rhetorical questions:
1. I have noticed that many of the shut-it-all-down fans seem to be retired and have a steady government pension and/or SS income stream or are able to work from home; hence have relatively little to lose from a continued shutdown. I can't help but wonder whether they would be so quick to eschew all other options if their own cash flow were to be suddenly dammed up like those who are still in the workforce, like my niece who was forced to close her two shops and lay off ten employees. She thinks there is a 50/50 chance both shops will reopen.
2. If there is expected to be a severe shortage of respiratory equipment, and if old and infirm people with Coronavirus are the most susceptible to severe respiratory issues, wouldn't it be logical to do everything possible to keep the oldsters isolated from the rest of the population so as to preserve the available hospital beds and ventilators? And, in reality, isn't that what is already being done? (e.g., How many seniors left the nursing home to go to Miami for Spring Break?) So, what is the societal cost to keep the healthy, younger people who develop very mild cases separated from each other instead of just from older people, versus the cost of letting them work, pay taxes and keep the economy at least limping along. And, as was the case in 2009/10 won't the young people who were laid off and the new college graduates be the last to be rehired when this is over? There's going to be a lot of really pissed off 20 year olds when they realize there were other options than putting them out of work.
3. Wouldn't identifying the at-risk population, enforcing their isolation and letting the non or minimally at-risk portion of the population get started on developing the herd immunity be wise before the next Coronavirus outbreak occurs, presumably in the fall or next spring. In the absence of a fully vaccinated population, won't we be right back in the position of isolating everyone who hasn't had the disease. Why would repeating that insanity be preferable to protecting the at-risk folks now, letting the disease work its way through most of younger people now, and having a bigger immune herd next time.
4. Before there was a mumps vaccine, I remember my mother sending my brothers and me to stay with my aunt for a week so we could catch mumps from my cousins. Folks did the same type thing before there was a measles vaccine. Before vaccines, isn't this how we always handled diseases that were relatively benign in the young but much more serious as people grew older? So, what's fundamentally different about the coronavirus than the measles virus, as least as far as young, healthy people go? And, what are we really protecting them from with a lockdown?; 3/27/20, 9:35 AM
narciso said...: number is up to 1306/85,762, for the country, what does that tell us, in California the numbers are 83/14052; 3/27/20, 9:36 AM
Ken B said...: “a college sophomore on spring break in Miami Beach heading for the cruise ship buffet”

Sad to think about what it will be like in those homes where Junior laughingly brought home the virus that killed grandma. What she he say at the funeral? “No fear”?; 3/27/20, 9:38 AM
Sebastian said...: "men are getting sicker than women"

How long before the prog tide turns, and the shutdowns get shut down as a form of patriarchy and male privilege? Why tank the economy when women and minorities are not hardest hit? In fact, if the "data" allow, shouldn't Dems view Wuhan as an opportunity to cull the old white male herd?; 3/27/20, 9:42 AM
Meade said...: "Sad to think about what it will be like in those homes where Junior laughingly brought home the virus that killed grandma. "

Dr. Birx; 3/27/20, 9:44 AM
I Have Misplaced My Pants said...: Why don’t you ask a similar question of those on the other side? The ones who think the real threat is the temporary closures. Have they donated to help the unemployed, etc.

Our income is going to be cut by 1/3 next year (and we know we are among the lucky ones) and we have six children including one who had to come home from out of state college (who is not receiving a refund for having her education yanked unceremoniously out from underneath her). We have been paying double the people who perform services around our home because they are losing business left and right from people who are irrationally afraid of them. We are not asking for refunds for any of the classes and activities that we paid for and are not receiving - piano lessons for two of our children, gym memberships, play therapy for the one with debilitating anxiety, preschool tuition, dance classes, church activity groups. All of those people are in enough trouble as small business owners / charities and we can absorb it for now, so we are.

We give to our church, we have always given blood, we donate to basically everyone who asks us, we share what we have, we are reluctantly taking in a friend's two cats as she's having to move to a small apartment even though we have four cats of our own and more than enough butts in this house we're responsible for keeping safe, fed and healthy.

I'm very weary of those who have a particular point of view on the coronavirus smugly claiming they are the only ones with moral fiber who care about others. If you find your circle jerk pleasurable, please continue, but you're not convincing anyone.; 3/27/20, 9:46 AM
Sebastian said...: jaydub! stop that callousness right now!; 3/27/20, 9:46 AM
Openidname said...: "Laslo Spatula said...

"I am sincerely curious of how and where people are sacrificing."

This is an invitation to virtue-signaling, but I'll bite.

I'm sending my cleaning lady a check for her usual fee every week to stay home and do nothing.

I offered to send my hairstylist a check for her usual fee every month, as a prepayment for a haircut to be provided later; she said she didn't need it yet, but she'd let me know if and when she did.

I'm buying gift cards from local restaurants.

P.S. I don't get why we should donate blood now any more than at any other time. Coronavirus victims generally don't need a transfusion, do they?; 3/27/20, 9:47 AM
Sebastian said...: Well, yes, maybe ruin and devastation are not entirely rational:

"We closed everything down. That was our public health strategy,” said Cuomo during an Albany press briefing. “If you re-thought that or had time to analyze that public health strategy, I don’t know that you would say ‘Quarantine everyone.’”"; 3/27/20, 9:48 AM
Laslo Spatula said...: Ken B said...
Laslo
Why don’t you ask a similar question of those on the other side? The ones who think the real threat is the temporary closures. Have they donated to help the unemployed, etc.

First off - thank you for your reply above -- and thank you for your help, sincerely.

As for the "other side": they can answer as well.

As for me: I have several now-unemployed friends, and have given money directly to help meet bills, rents, etc. People tend to forget that -- before the unemployment wave -- a lot of business cut hours in the weeks before: it's already turmoil for many.

I am Laslo.; 3/27/20, 9:51 AM
Laslo Spatula said...: "This is an invitation to virtue-signaling, but I'll bite."

Yep. But I was curious how many are going beyond 'virtue-sheltering'.

I am Laslo.; 3/27/20, 9:55 AM
exhelodrvr1 said...: "I don't get why we should donate blood now any more than at any other time. Coronavirus victims generally don't need a transfusion, do they?"

A lot of the mobile blood drives have been cancelled, because of businesses/churches/etc. shutting down.; 3/27/20, 10:00 AM
Darkisland said...: Blogger Laslo Spatula said...

The idea of World War II's war bonds comes to mind, but I don't have the time to develop that thought.

And WWI

Would you include jailing someone for privately telling a family member that you don't intend to buy any?

As that shining symbol of progressivism Woodrow Wilson did.

John Henry; 3/27/20, 10:01 AM
Freeman Hunt said...: Maybe some people want a long term isolation approach, I don't know. That would not be workable. I think the more common idea is to totally isolate for a few weeks, long enough to mobilize an aggressive testing, isolating, and contact tracing strategy. Then mostly reopen for business, perhaps only holding off on very large gatherings, and closing down hot spots as they appear.

The current isolation is obviously a major economic hardship. Hopefully the enormous stimulus package will help alleviate some of that. Even if they waste a lot of it, $6000 for every man, woman, and child is a lot of money. Hopefully some of it will end up where it needs to be.

One tough bit: part of the effective contact tracing in certain Asian countries has utilized cell phone data. Not sure that we would (or should) go for that. Given the long incubation time, is it possible to have good contact tracing without it? Not sure.

Some people changed their behavior early on. Most people seem to have done so now. We should start seeing the benefits of that in lower transmissions. That will be great! The more quickly the new cases drop, the more quickly we can switch strategies and go back to relatively normal life. And hopefully (hopefully!) the weather will give us a temporary reprieve.

We'll see...; 3/27/20, 10:02 AM
Darkisland said...: Blogger Shouting Thomas said...

I'm having a hell of a good time with the grandkids, Howard.

Lucky you, I wish I could. I live 500 yards from my daughter. I've not seen my grandkids for 3 weeks because of the local lockdown.

Now they just started on license plate. Plates ending in an even number can drive on M-W-F, odd T-T-S.

No idea what the point of it is. There is already nobody on the road. Both our cars are even so I can't even go get mail.

John Henry; 3/27/20, 10:08 AM
Ken B said...: Freeman Hunt said
“Maybe some people want a long term isolation approach, I don't know. That would not be workable. I think the more common idea is to totally isolate for a few weeks, long enough to mobilize an aggressive testing, isolating, and contact tracing strategy. Then mostly reopen for business, perhaps only holding off on very large gatherings, and closing down hot spots as they appear.”

Exactly right. That is precisely what some of us have been saying. And if we can do that, with government funds to prevent liquidations and foreclosures in the short run these does not have to be a catastrophe. And yet look at the opposition here to exactly that kind of government spending. (From some of the people who were insisting that airlines helping quarantine jumpers are entitled to a bailout.); 3/27/20, 10:11 AM
Freeman Hunt said...: People commenting on blogs are probably more comfortable with technology than average. Good group to show others who are less comfortable how to temporarily move their businesses online to video calls. That's only possible for some businesses, but explaining to a tutor, music teacher, speech therapist, counselor, or similar person how to set up something like a Zoom meeting can make a huge, immediate difference to that person's income.; 3/27/20, 10:12 AM
Darkisland said...: Here's an idea:

SuperMax to temporarily hire 150 Red Lobster, Sizzler employees

by Michelle Kantrow-Vázquez

Two local companies have reached a significant agreement that will benefit 150 employees currently out-of-work because of the islandwide lockdown.

In a statement, the management of local supermarket chain SuperMax and Grupo Colón-Gerena, operator of the Red Lobster and Sizzler in Puerto Rico have partnered to safeguard the restaurant employees by relocating them to supermarket operations.

Due to the temporary closure of the two Red Lobster restaurants and the 14 Sizzler locations in Puerto Rico given the limitations to offer services while of Gov. Wanda Vázquez’s Executive Order mandating a lockdown and 24/7 curfew, SuperMax will temporarily hire and for the duration of the emergency more than 150 empemployees of the restaurants

https://wp.me/p1HhaI-c6e

Then there is this story:

Amazon and Walmart are ramping up hiring to add 250,000 new jobs. Here's how to apply and whether you can expect an interview.

Hayley Peterson
Mar 23, 2020, 1:55 PM

https://www.businessinsider.com/amazon-walmart-hiring-how-to-apply-2020-3

We need to start a movement of sharing employees. Amazon & Walmart need employees, thousands of companies have employees needing jobs. Surely there must be some way to link them up. Everyone benefits, Especially the currently laid off employees.; 3/27/20, 10:14 AM
Ken B said...: Freeman Hunt
Good point. My sister is a speech pathologist. She can and does use video. We helped my in laws, who are old, set up their new tablet to keep in touch. My son in law, a geneticist, has his lab shuttered but they are all very digital savvy of course. My son teaches and it’s all video now.
God help us if the internet goes out.; 3/27/20, 10:18 AM
The Cracker Emcee Refulgent said...: “I'm sorry Thomas but you are mistaken. The primary function of a totalitarian state is its own survival.”

Oh my Lord, no. Historically, totalitarian states become irrational actors much quicker than their democratic counterparts. North Korea appears to be an exception only because they were rescued from their disastrous invasion of the South by the Chinese. They learned that lesson, if not much else.

Tiger Kings is a hilarious freak show with a lot of incredibly cute kittens and incredibly gorgeous big cats in it. It’s one of the purest pieces of lightweight entertainment you’re likely to see this year.; 3/27/20, 10:20 AM
Achilles said...: Bill, Republic of Texas said...
I don't subscribe to the get Trump narrative for a simple reason. The economic shutdown has been worldwide.

Why would all these other countries potentially destroy their economy to get Trump?

I think a simpler answer is the spread rate and severity of the WuFlu scared the shit out of the people. Maybe the scare was justified or just panic. Who knows at this point.

Trump is just the leader of the nationalist movement in the US.

Many other countries are following that lead.

The globalists want to reassert their control everywhere.

This was just one tool. But it has backfired on them spectacularly.; 3/27/20, 10:21 AM
Rick said...: Ken B said...
Exactly right. That is precisely what some of us have been saying.

It's amusing he says "us" when his own position is that anyone concerned about economics is a "clovidiot".; 3/27/20, 10:22 AM
ALP said...: What bothers me about this coronavirus response is that it seems sensationalized. The news on it doesn’t seem serious — the newsreaders and “experts” seem giddy with excitement. Childish high school nonsense.
***************
Same as meteorologists getting excited over extreme weather. Experts get excited when it is their "thing". The thing they trained and studied for is HERE.; 3/27/20, 10:22 AM
MadisonMan said...: @DarkIsland, you need a license plate like mine, ending in a letter!; 3/27/20, 10:30 AM
Achilles said...: Freeman Hunt said...

The current isolation is obviously a major economic hardship. Hopefully the enormous stimulus package will help alleviate some of that. Even if they waste a lot of it, $6000 for every man, woman, and child is a lot of money. Hopefully some of it will end up where it needs to be.

That isn't how shit works. $6000 is representative.

If you produce something and trade it for 6000$ you created wealth.

If the government takes 6000$ from someone and gives it to someone else it took money from someone productive and gave it out randomly. Usually to someone less productive.

This is a misapplication of capital and it destroys wealth.

If you just give someone $6000 nothing is produced.

We cannot replace all of the wealth that has been destroyed this way. It is just a sop to the sheep.; 3/27/20, 10:39 AM
Jaq said...: I was worried that the currently healthy stand of ash trees on my lot was doomed to fall to emerald ash borer after seeing a small number of trees on the other side of the state showing sings of bronzing as the woodpeckers feast on the grubs in infected trees, but it turns out that there is no way that such a tiny infestation on the other side of the state could grow to kill just about every mature ash tree in the state! I learned that here! Turns out that the math the forestry guys have been using is defective! I wonder why so many trees have died on other states though... Probably because the trees were confused by the old discredited math and gave up the ghost out of fear.

One thing the Democrats have done though, with their hijinks, is to turn me into a “yellow dog Republican.” I will never ever pull the lever for a Democrat again. Not after that fucking display. It’s kind of a relief though, because now I don’t have to follow politics anymore.

One thing I won’t be doing anymore is arguing with math muggles.

Here is some stuff you can discredit

"The town of Nembro, near Bergamo [Italy], had 158 deaths so far this year vs 35 on average in the recent past.”

https://twitter.com/FerdiGiugliano/status/1243128000121618432

Here is a nice picture of a perfectly normal flu season mobile morgue set up outside of a hospital in NYC

https://twitter.com/Carter_PE/status/1242965574008913920

One thing is certain, when you are looking at the data, you do not, I repeat you absolutely do not need to be on guard against biases in yourself based on alleviating your own anxieties or advocating for your self interests, as the whole history of human events has shown that this is never a problem people have!

My final comment, and then Aunty Trump is signing off for good, too partisan politics and metaphorically killed by the ChiCom virus, after which tim in vermont may reappear, I don’t know, I saw him somewhere and that’s what he told me. I have a feeling that his perspectives will be greatly changed after all of this.; 3/27/20, 10:46 AM
Christy said...: Just heard a doc on Fox News credibly suggesting an early warning of Civic 19 infection may be the reduced ability to smell.; 3/27/20, 10:48 AM
jaydub said...: "Sad to think about what it will be like in those homes where Junior laughingly brought home the virus that killed grandma."

If that happens then grandma wasn't isolated. My MIL is in a nursing home where no one from the outside, including my wife and the MIL's GP are prohibited from entering. The staff is disinfected every morning before they come into the facility. My nephew who has SMA is isolated in a room in his house and is guarded by his mother. No one enters his room and no one enters the house without being sanitized. That's what separating the at-risk population from the general population means and severe social distancing is what is required for the very at risk. The tragedy described was not even the fault of Junior, who appears brain dead, it's the fault of the people who are charged with keeping the grandma isolated, who also appear brain dead. It's also anecdotal and meaningless as regards policy formulation - there is no point in rules if the rules cannot or will not be enforced.

Perhaps all those completely inflexible know-it-alls (Ken B here's looking at you) can come up with a policy that keeps Junior at work or away at college, (Oh wait, he was laid off from his job and his college was closed with the jerk of a knee) so that he doesn't have the opportunity to kill grandma. Better yet, explain in detail how a process that isolates Grandma from the outside population, including Junior, is inferior to a process that depends on Junior practicing social distancing and being responsible. Show your work.; 3/27/20, 10:55 AM
Freeman Hunt said...: "This is a misapplication of capital and it destroys wealth.

"If you just give someone $6000 nothing is produced.

"We cannot replace all of the wealth that has been destroyed this way. It is just a sop to the sheep."

When you wrote that, did you honestly think that I thought a government stimulus was equivalent to free market activity? Who are you even addressing? There's no way that anyone on this blog thinks that.; 3/27/20, 10:59 AM
Yancey Ward said...: China figured out how to stop the panic, we haven't yet. I leave it to the smart people on this thread to figure out what China did. And I will point out that it isn't an option we actually have being the kind of people we are.; 3/27/20, 11:05 AM
Yancey Ward said...: "The town of Nembro, near Bergamo [Italy], had 158 deaths so far this year vs 35 on average in the recent past.”

I will play, Aunty. What numbers were used to get that 35 average, and what is meant by recent past? I only ask because Italy is the oldest country in Europe in both mean and median. Deaths should increase in Italy and probably Bergamo as both get older. So, was that 35 an average over the last ten years, the last two, or what, exactly?; 3/27/20, 11:09 AM
JAORE said...: Reporter: We have new numbers on the virus. Testing, deaths, infected and more. Do we report raw numbers or per capita?

Editor: Use whichever makes the POTUS look bad. Why do I have to keep repeating things toyou guys?; 3/27/20, 11:12 AM
RigelDog said...: Re: Tiger King
<>

I was fascinated by the fact that the Tiger King was able to convince two not-gay men to marry him. At one point, to both marry him at the same time. The footage they showed of him interacting with the straight dudes was cringey---they were so obviously not feeling any true attraction or comfort in being affectionate with him.

I didn't really like the series but these people and the various situations were so very weird and mostly unpredictable that I think Althouse would be very intrigued by it.; 3/27/20, 11:13 AM
exhelodrvr1 said...: Cuomo-
“We closed everything down. That was our public health strategy,” said Cuomo during an Albany press briefing. “If you re-thought that or had time to analyze that public health strategy, I don’t know that you would say ‘Quarantine everyone.’”

One of those assholes who wants 200,000 people to die!!; 3/27/20, 11:15 AM
JAORE said...: FWIW we have been buying (on line) gift cards from local businesses. They are being put away as Christmas gifts (watch those expiration dates). It provides the companies we support with an immediate cash infusion w/o them having to provide a service right now.; 3/27/20, 11:18 AM
RigelDog said...: Laslo asks what we have done, individually, to help. My 29 year old daughter, who is not wealthy, texted me the other day to ask if I knew of any charities that she could donate to in order to help. She was especially interested in any efforts that would help people or supplies in the medical system. I didn't know what to tell her because as far as I know, the medical supply issue is a matter of lack of items, not the lack of ability for institutions to pay for them. And yes, I am super-proud of her.

Meanwhile, I would love to "help" but haven't figured out what I personally could do yet. Donate money at some point for sure, after I figure out where such aid is really targeted intelligently and without fraud.; 3/27/20, 11:26 AM
Ken B said...: Shouting Thomas said...
“The scientist who predicted 2.2 million deaths in the U.S. now says 20,000”

This is a straight up lie.; 3/27/20, 11:33 AM
Ken B said...: “ One of those assholes who wants 200,000 people to die!!”

What did I tell you Meade?; 3/27/20, 11:34 AM
Birkel said...: Businesses will be shut down. That's baked in. There will be fewer employers to rehire laid off workers if we reopened on Monday. A 22 trillion dollar economy that represents 1/4th of the entire world's economic activity has been effectively shuttered for between 20 and 40% of the U.S.

The U.S. has sneezed and the ROW is about to get very sick.; 3/27/20, 11:37 AM
RigelDog said...: "I don't get why we should donate blood now any more than at any other time. Coronavirus victims generally don't need a transfusion, do they?"

A lot of the mobile blood drives have been cancelled, because of businesses/churches/etc. shutting down.>>>

I'm a realistic optimist by nature. I am hoping that the cancelling of non-essential surgery along with the enormous reduction in vehicular traffic will result in a greatly-reduced need for blood. I'd give blood right now except I have asthma and have to realistically consider that I would die or have severe impairment if I did get the virus.; 3/27/20, 11:39 AM
Ken B said...: "I don't get why we should donate blood now any more than at any other time. Coronavirus victims generally don't need a transfusion, do they?"

Well for one, other stuff happens that needs load and it’s good to have a stockpile because the outbreak will hamper emergency blood drives. If you can’t go shopping for a month it’s good to stock up. Same principle.; 3/27/20, 11:43 AM
320Busdriver said...: All I can think of is my time in NYC travelling between airports, sometimes via Subway, or LIRR, or PATH. The most impactful memories are going into Roosevelt Ave/Jackson Heights subway station(blocks away from Elmhurst Hospital disaster area) and NY Penn and marvelling at the insane crush of bodies moving about. Looking back its easy to see how bad this could be for millions of people. NYC transit carries 8 million per day. Cuomo projects worst HC demand is 21 days away. It will be hard to bear I fear.; 3/27/20, 11:43 AM
MayBee said...: Browndog said...

Whitmer is so incredibly reactive.
We got a notification yesterday that people in our industry have reported being stopped and asked whey they are out, and if they have their paperwork proving they are a necessary worker.
She really enjoys police stating.; 3/27/20, 11:49 AM
MayBee said...: Oh, and Whitmer shut down some of the local blood drives that were taking place at Elks Lodges, because they are places that serve food and drinks and were supposed to be closed.; 3/27/20, 12:08 PM
Char Char Binks, Esq. said...: Turns out the predicted 2.2 million deaths was in metric, and that converts to only 20,000 in regular.; 3/27/20, 12:09 PM
MayBee said...: I love you, Pants.; 3/27/20, 12:09 PM
MayBee said...: wait....Aunty Trump is Tim in Vermont?; 3/27/20, 12:11 PM
bagoh20 said...: It's been discovered that the virus thrives on money, and as soon as you run out, you'll be cured. Of course the government in it's infinite stupidity is now sending everyone money! People have got to wise up. Do not accept that money.; 3/27/20, 12:30 PM
bagoh20 said...: Soylent Green is money!!!; 3/27/20, 12:31 PM
Darkisland said...: 3/27/20, 11:26 AM

Ken B said...

Shouting Thomas said...
“The scientist who predicted 2.2 million deaths in the U.S. now says 20,000”

This is a straight up lie.

So what about dr fauci? He said, in an nejm editorial linked above, "about the same as a flu season" (quoting from memory)

Is he lying, Ken?

John Henry; 3/27/20, 12:41 PM
Birkel said...: A moby like Ken B cannot answer.
It will deflect instead.; 3/27/20, 12:45 PM
Ken B said...: Darkisland
Shouting Thomas lied. Period. Fauci is not relevant to ST lying about what Ferguson said.; 3/27/20, 12:49 PM
Birkel said...: We still don't want everybody to get sick all at once and stress the hospitals. That is why we should be Kung Flu Fighting with Social distancing. But shutting down the economy in this manner will prove (my conjecture) too harmful, even now.

It will be worse in weeks.; 3/27/20, 12:50 PM
Birkel said...: Classic deflection.
Thank you.; 3/27/20, 12:51 PM
Howard said...: Glad to hear you are not dead, Tim from Vermont.; 3/27/20, 1:01 PM
The Cracker Emcee Refulgent said...: "Shouting Thomas lied. Period. Fauci is not relevant to ST lying about what Ferguson said."

OK, that made me laugh aloud. Your appeal to authority is not relevant to my interpretation of someone else's appeal to authority! Whatever the reality of WuFlu, you're falling into hysterics, Ken.

Fascinating, and illustrative of political belief generally, how the clearly panic-stricken are emotionally invested in their panic.; 3/27/20, 1:24 PM
walter said...: rcocean said...this should prevent Doctors from prescribing it as a PREVENTATIVE, which is not useful.
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We don't know, but there are in vitro results that suggest it is.
It wouldn't surprise me if it winds up being more efficacious as a preventative and/or at initial diagnosis.; 3/27/20, 1:48 PM
walter said...: Gregory Rigano Retweeted
Sigmund Friedrich
@SigmundFriedri1
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1h
Huge scandal again in France : yesterday's decree allowing HCQ+Z-pack against COVID19 modified today to only allow it for patients in ICU ! Big Pharma's hand obviously behind this. Raoult recommends his treatment as early as possible, the exact opposite.; 3/27/20, 2:07 PM
Ignatius Acton Chesterton OCD said...: What’s the number we need to hit? What’s our target? What are we going for? What’s the WIN?

If it’s ”every life is precious” in an election year, this will go on and on and on... interminably. And our economy will be destroyed.

How do I know the response is completely out of proportion? Because no one knows anything they’re talking about. It’s obvious. And that’s to be expected, because this is a new situation — a novel coronavirus. We will figure it out, but it will take time, discernment and decision-making.

The people who incessantly ridicule this President for being a boob, charlatan and idiot now demand that he perform a high level. That’s very strange. Leadership amidst this level of uncertainty is extremely challenging. I certainly don’t look to smarty-pants partisan hack blog commenters to supply wisdom. And you know who you are.

The way forward is all about the testing, and the numbers are going to be rising significantly as more people get tested — so everything is going to look worse. With no standards of success or progress, anxiety intensifies. If we keep the panic at this level and sustain it, people are going to start doing bad human stuff. That’s what I worry about. It’s not just entertaining or stimulating, it’s dangerous,; 3/27/20, 3:10 PM
Ignatius Acton Chesterton OCD said...: And let’s be absolutely clear on another thing...

Politicians will never assume responsibility, and the authorities will never admit they’re wrong. They won’t pivot soon/fast enough. And this lockdown will become more dangerous by the day. And no one will take responsibility. As the numbers go up, they’ll extend the destructive shelter-in-place orders longer, wreaking more economic devastation that will cause despair, fueling desperation. A combustible mix.

I cannot emphasize this enough: we must establish goalposts for this fight, with clear lines on the field. Otherwise, this panic will be used as a political weapon and the whole country will come apart.

This is a prime example of why oversized government is not a good thing. Government dies not do anything well. It is grossly inefficient. It creates complacency and dependency.

That’s what I mean when I say the cure is worse than the disease. And right now, the prescription is not the cure, it’s a guesstimate. There’s no context, no core metric.

We’ve made judgment and discrimination such evil things that hardly anyone can make distinctions, and even fewer make decisions.; 3/27/20, 3:14 PM
Nichevo said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; 3/27/20, 3:39 PM
Nichevo said...: Howard said...
Okay shouting Thomas, I'll bite. why then would the Chinese risk destabilizing their own country just as a retaliatory measure against Trump. It's not like there's some Buddhist monk on a Saigon Street in 1967... self-immolation is just not the ChiCom style I've grown to love and respect over the years

3/27/20, 8:20 AM

1. They don't immolate self but self is V V narrowly defined over there. China has always professed a high, infinite by our standards, casualty tolerance. Human wave attacks in Korea, for instance, a million dead, for bupkes. The internal slaughters, Great Leap, Cultural Revolution. Before communism there was the Taiping Rebellion with possibly 50 million dead. And on and on. The Mongols.

From Foreign Policy:

You think North Korean leader Kim Jong Un says crazy things? Chairman Mao Zedong famously declared, “I’m not afraid of nuclear war. There are 2.7 billion people in the world; it doesn’t matter if some are killed. China has a population of 600 million; even if half of them are killed, there are still 300 million people left.”

So no, China isn't afraid of a little bloodshed. In a good cause or no cause.

2. China is in a demographic flat spin: they cut their own throats with the one-child policy. Now, China will get old before it gets rich. Having lifted one-child, people still ain't breeding.

They would like nothing better than a grandpa killer to bend their own curve. Plus the sorrow might turn on some chicks. Works in the animal kingdom, new head lion kills all the cubs and the lionesses go into heat.

3. The fact that things are not working out like they planned, doesn't mean it wasn't planned.

4. Maybe not planned, or didn't happen on plan/schedule. I'm OK with the medium option, that they were just monkeying around with virii in Wuhan BSL-4, and slipped somehow.

As such, how would you expect them to handle it? In a word: opportunistically. They're playing the hand that fell out of the pocket in their sleeve.

5. The question is how we respond. Bracing myself for your droll mockery, I want to jack them up.

6. I see no reason to fear a military response. For all intensive porpoises, they can't touch us. They can rape Hong Kong and their other recent captures, here's my shocked face. Taiwan? I don't see their odds have improved. OOTB first strike on CONUS? Really? Cyber? Really? What else?

7. So much what Drago said, that PDT wanted to leverage Russia against China, and the opposition fucked that up, totally gratuitously. Thanks guys.; 3/27/20, 3:40 PM
Balfegor said...: Re: Yancey Ward:

China figured out how to stop the panic, we haven't yet. I leave it to the smart people on this thread to figure out what China did. And I will point out that it isn't an option we actually have being the kind of people we are.

China may be overstating their success, but they do seem to have brought it under control, compared to the situation in January. I thought at the time that their strategy -- sealing off a city the size of NYC and essentially quarantining a third of their population with stay at home orders across the major urban centers -- was not replicable in the US because it would devastate the economy (as it did in China), but to my surprise, that's basically where the US is right now. New York hasn't been sealed off yet, but otherwise, I'm frankly impressed our political leaders had the guts.; 3/27/20, 5:05 PM
wbfjrr2 said...: What China has done to stop the pandemic is lie. It’s what they do. It’s beyond laughable that a country of 1.4 billion people is reporting single digit deaths now. Utter bullshit gobbled up by our media and the China admirers (looking at you, NYT).

As for ideology, the CCP, Chinese Communist Party controls all info leaving the country, would gladly kill off millions to bring down the US. Other countries are collateral damage as far as they’re concerned. Remember, they are the direct heirs of Mao and his sacred (to them) teaching.

As for the panic inducing, intellectually dishonest Ferguson of the U.K., Dr Birx, the most impressive spokesperson in this whole saga, said his model is out to lunch vs what she sees in the real world actual data. Only morons like Ken B would pick Ferguson over Birx, who actually has her ass on the line in this fight.

US case numbers will go up exponentially as we test more and more people, as predicted. If tests are growing 27%/day, and 15% of tests are positive, that’s just a mathematical certainty. And the media will continue to scream we are the epicenter of Covid (see NYT linked by AA) yesterday. Given we are are larger in population than most of the combined populations of the major EU countries, it’s a certainty that we will see more cases than any of those individual countries. But we have far fewer cases per million and far fewer deaths per million (261 and 4 respectively) than the individual countries.

The next thing that will be apparent as the testing reveals ever more cases, is that the CFR will continue to decline, and per Fauci in his NEJM article published yesterday, approach flu CFRs.

Lastly, my friends who are convinced we need to shut down the economy because every life counts, for as long as it takes, absolutely reject any facts that undercut their narrative, even good news from Saint Fauci and Dr Birx, whom they were devoted to until data grew clearer. One of the more demented ones swears Birx and a Fauci are being forced to be positive by Trump or else. He doesn’t say what the or else is.

These are the same people who were disappointed to learn our President is not a Russian stooge, believe that Christine Blasey Forde was 100% credible , and that the earth will burn up one of these (10)years.

They are true misanthropes.; 3/27/20, 6:34 PM
Kirk Parker said...: Howard,

"China only real ideology right now is global trade and enrichment."

The kindest possible interpretation of this statement is that you just aren't paying attention.; 3/28/20, 12:43 PM