March 12, 2020

At the Sunrise Café...

563CC2E3-230F-46B1-ADAD-814FBFB20B46_1_201_a

... tell us something you think. And be patient. In search of calm, we're using more moderation.

325 comments:

«Oldest   ‹Older   201 – 325 of 325
Francisco D said...

Wow!

There is a high need to comment.

I wonder how much as to do with fears of everything falling apart.

Char Char Binks, Esq. said...

The average lifespan in the USA is 78 years, so we shouldn’t be alarmed by any deaths from ChiCom flu in anyone older than that, and I think that means most of them so far in this country.

Yancey Ward said...

There were rumors that a risk parity fund was being forced to liquidate- selling both bonds and stocks with abandon. I watched Treasury bond all this week closely, some amazing moves in price. It might be as simple as foreign governments selling lots of treasuries because oil revenue is staring into the abyss.

Of course, on the corporate side, those bonds now face greatly increased default risks, and it isn't surprising to find those starting to crater this week.

Mark said...

Everything falling apart??

Not me, man. I've been hitting those 201s.

Yancey Ward said...

Aunty Trump,

I think the panicky steps being taken to "stop" the virus will:

(1) completely fail to stop the virus;
(2) will cause 10 times the numbers of deaths that the virus itself will over the longer term.

What I sense is way too much faith in authority to do anything about this- COVID itself will either be a complete disaster as predicted by the doomsayers, or won't be, but it won't have anything to do with what the authorities do or don't do. The virus is out there, and it is probable that you will be infected with it unless a vaccine is developed by the end of this Summer.

Protect the elderly, but the rest of us probably should just live our lives normally, but it appears we won't even be allowed to do that.

tim in vermont said...

There will also be a tariff on imported oil, I am guessing. Energy independence motivating Republicans and climate and the whole idea of the camel’s nose under the tent motivating Democrats.

tim in vermont said...

Commenting here is a form of “social distancing” so we are doing our part.

walter said...

Initially, focus might best be on determining treatment protocols with currently available tools.

chickelit said...

Francisco D said...Wow!

There is a high need to comment.

I wonder how much as to do with fears of everything falling apart.

_____________________
Things fall apart; the CDC cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.

Mike (MJB Wolf) said...

Everywhere I traveled this week my fellow Americans were upbeat, skeptical of the panic, but taking measures to work social distancing into their habits. Purell and normal hand washing were increased. We all are doing our part. And soon as I’m off this plane I’m gonna wash my hands again real good.

Bruce Hayden said...

Changing pace a bit.

My partner was bored with the usual TV shows. She wanted to see on of the weekend Lifetime Cra Cra shows that she likes. But the only one I found recorded, she had seen. Then I thought about NetFlicks. It is one of the Apps on our cox system. Took awhile to load up. The first series that we saw was about a sex therapist, and started with a lot of actual sex. Didn’t look worthwhile. Then we stumbled into “The Ranch”.

We really loved it. She managed to binge watch the first year. It has a really good cast. Sam Elliott is the crusty rancher. Danny Masterson is the older boy. Ashton Kutcher is his younger boy, back in his I’d thirties for an unsuccessful football career. It set in SW CO, so Elway and Manning are kings there. Debrah Winger is his somewhat estranged wife. Etc. Elliott has played this role for decades, but this time it is in a comedic role. The comedy is tight, tighter than anything I have seen recently. Really good cast - better than you find on network TV.

Part of why we loved it was Elliot, with Barry Corbin as his even older, and crustier veterinarian friend. Masterson jokes that to Kutcher that their father has three grunts, explains them, with the third grunt that he hates his younger son, Kutcher. We both grew with a quiet cowboy as a rancher though mine left to be a teacher and not getting ack until retirement. Hers rode (irrigation) ditch on horseback for a job (apparently faster than by truck), and broke wild horses as a hobby. We both grew up with men of the quiet crusty rancher type in our lives, and there has always been some allure to it. It is hard, merciless work and my grandfather was the one one of four brothers to leave it. In reality, I wouldn’t have stayed either. I was a lot happier as a systems engineer and a patent attorney, than I would have been as a rancher.

Still, some of the old west remains, and I think that we are both a bit nostalgic about it. This is part of why we spend half the year in NW MT. In any case, for me, at least, shows like this are much more attractive than watching more shows set in NYC, or even LA. This was almost an ode to Red America (where they don’t know any Democrats), just like Fiends, Sluts in the City and Seinfeld, were odes to Blue America,

Bruce Hayden said...

The social distancing that seems likely to result from this pandemic is going to be interesting to watch. For one thing, I see this as possibly hastening remote schooling. The current model is failing, but has so much resistance to overcome. K-12 was set up like a production line, because that was what we knew at the time that got results. I suspect that many here were bore in high school. I know I was. I could get a 3.5 w/o taking a book home all year, even taking the hardest classes. For awhile tracking or the like could provide with a more academic bent with a challenge (my kid took mostly AP in 11-12 - in a private school). But in a lot of school districts, advanced tracks are being eliminated, because it is apparently unfair to teach kids going into STEM calculus, when many students can’t understand it, no matter how hard they try. Etc.

I think that ultimately we are going towards remote learning. We almost have to. Our public K-12 schools are failing. It seems the more money you throw at them, the worse they perform. Few really get to go at their own pace, and the teachers tend to come from the lower quartile of SATs. The schools seem more and more run for the benefit of the teachers, and esp the staff and administrators. It only gets worse in college, where the administrative staff has exploded I recent years, at the expense of the quality of the teaching. More and more classes are ring taught by TAs, adjuncts, and lecturers, freeing up more money to be paid the diversity deans, their bloated and overpaid staffs, and the rest of the administrators. Moreover, the wrong skill set for teaching is learned by many, if not most PhDs. They may be great at research, but are often horrid teaching classes. There are, however, really talented teachers around, even for the most difficult classes. They just now can only teach a relatively small number of students in the current system. Much better, I think, if they teach a much bigger audience online. And if the students are learning online, instead of in class, then what is the purpose of living on campus? And if they learn remotely, the the need for the massive administrations that have grown up in many colleges and universities becomes mostly superfluous. Moreover, classes taught remotely require significantly fewer resources, as class space can be mostly eliminated.

So many students being forced to go to class online, and teach online, instead of in a brick and mortar classroom, shows that it can be done. So why not continue the move to remote education after the pandemic recedes?

tim in vermont said...

Given the high number of false positives, it makes me wonder if Tom Hanks really even has it. He’s not very sick. It could just be a cold.

tim in vermont said...

They should ban valet parking for the duration, BTW.

Matt Sablan said...

"The states have had to pick up the slack from the failed federal leadership.
"

-- That's how it is supposed to work.

Tommy Duncan said...

After one day of play in front of carefully minimized crowds the WIAA has ended the Wisconsin high school basketball tournaments. I watched two very entertaining girl's games last night.

I guess it's the end of the world as we know it. I feel sorry for the kids who worked hard to get into the state tournament.

agentlesoul said...

From facebook:
Tired of hearing politicians telling us to sing happy birthday twice while hand washing?
Here is a hand washing song for Les Mis fans.

Do you hear the people sing?
Singing the song of washing hands?
It is the music of the people
Who will not get sick again!

When the washing of your hands
Covers the back and palm and thumbs
Then you may still be standing strong
When tomorrow comes!

Tina Trent said...

Australian. Makes sense, Aunty.

Italy was hard hit within weeks of Fashion Week. The virus exploded in Milan because the beautiful people who are screaming about Trump wouldn't take personal responsibility for their decision to attend an international event in the midst of an exploding pandemic. Ditto "face of the pandemic" Tom Hanks, who is spewing veiled anti-Trump rhetoric but takes no responsibility for choosing to travel for personal benefit when it would have been wise to avoid doing so. And how does Hanks know he didn't bring the virus to Australians? He praises their testing protocols to condemn Trump, but if Australia had followed Trump's lead, its citizens might be protected from internationally traveling disease vectors.

The media worked very hard to avoid acknowledging the connection between the Italy outbreak and Fashion Week. They have papers to sell, and fashion sells.

Lincolntf said...

My school just extended Spring Break to two weeks, classes re-starting March 30. My wife's college is trying to transition to all online classes for the remainder of the semester, but I don't think that's realistic for many of the courses she teaches.

Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...

I assume this has been discussed already but what is the red dot in the photo? This is, by the way, one of Althouse's best photos, but I probably think this because of the colors, I like muted browns, greys and yellows.

tim in vermont said...

Market was down 700 around midnight is now up 1100, an 1800 point swing overnight. I think because there are indications, not directly from the Chinese government, that the worst is over there. That’s just another guess. I hope my guy bought some of those bonds that were at fire sale levels.

exhelodrvr1 said...

Estimates on how many Americans have it now, or have already had it?

Fernandinande said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Jersey Fled said...

The worst part about all of the sporting events being cancelled is that the sports radio shows have nothing to talk about and alot of air to fill. So they talk about politics.

Imagine the dumbest people you know talking endlessly about something they know nothing about.

This must be what hell is like.

Jersey Fled said...

BTW I don't have to worry about when to get back into the market because I never get out. I learned my lesson in 1987 when the market dropped 22.6% in one day.

I explain it to my wife this way.

The money we have invested is not money we need right now. It's money we need X years from now.

What is the probability that the market recovers at some point within the next X years.

Pretty damn good.

Rusty said...

"The states have had to pick up the slack from the failed federal leadership."
"-- That's how it is supposed to work."
Apparently a small portion of the populace need to be told what to do.
The rest of us, not so much.

Anonymous said...

Aunty Trump:

“People don’t think”

Or some people think and use logic, and other people feel.


And then there are some people who think and use logic, but only in the service of defending the deeply entrenched position they felt their way into.

Fernandinande said...

"Parents Worried They'll Have To Raise Their Own Children As Government Schools Shut Down"

"The states have had to pick up the slack from the failed federal leadership."
-- That's how it is supposed to work.


It's right there in the Constitution that federal employees will instruct the citizenry on how to act whenever something unusual happens.

tim in vermont said...

Another probably fallout is that Silicon Valley which is still flush with cash is going to buy up the rest of the economy at fire sale prices and solidify their control.

Will Cate said...

I succumbed a little bit to The Great Toilet Paper Freakout yesterday... I needed some anyway, and at the local WalMart I snagged a case of 30 rolls of Scott 1000-sheet single-ply. My preferred brand, ironically enough. So I have at least 3 months' worth of TP now.

tim in vermont said...

"And then there are some people who think and use logic, but only in the service of defending the deeply entrenched position they felt their way into.”

Everybody has to guard against that. The best way I know is to take a fresh look at what we know for certain and to look at primary sources. What we know for certain is that Wuhan Lab was experimenting on bats and viruses, and issuing press releases about it in 2018, which I have linked here. The epicenter happened very close to that selfsame lab. Italy is tightly economically coupled with Wuhan specifically, as old timers in the Italian leather industry have largely sold out to Chinese based in Wuhan and there were regular flights to Wuhan. That the Iranians have been extremely cozy with the Chinese.

We have zero evidence of this virus prior to the Wuhan outbreak.

Counter evidence I have seen so far are that there were people with the flu who *might* have been sick with this, even though though we know that there have been two strains of flu going around. Both of which can make you very sick.

Go ahead and poke holes in that if you can.

Temujin said...

Aunty nailed it last night. I'm still shaking my head over this one. China playing around. Add in their economic ties to Italy and Iran and you have the 3 most infected countries.

Just watched a clearly Liberal 'expert' on Squawk Box declare that we should just be sending money to every citizen in the US. Just...send out bundles of money and that will relieve the problem.

At least he cut to the basics of how a Dem thinks. And it's not impressive.

Among the most concerning, but not totally surprising things I am seeing out of this is how many Americans really are dependent on their government to take care of them. We've reached a point where the public needs a President who sounds like their father (or mother?) and makes them feel like everything will be OK. I thought the Pres was supposed to be the Chief Executive. I think Obama turned it into the Head Dad. They are also ready to just sit there and die, until their government comes to take them by the hand and lead them to....to...what? They can't even arrange to get testing kits out. Even now...they cannot get that priority done. This is not on Trump and his team. This is the same career people who have been sitting at desks through multiple Presidents. And you want these people to take care of you?

Whatever happened to the 'fiercely independent' American? I mean to say...we need a Federal level plan of action to deal with this mass infection. That is happening in phases. But I still see that many people don't know what common sense things to do on their own. Before, during, and probably after an event like this. And what are they all going to do with 50 rolls of TP?

Anonymous said...

Yancey: I think the panicky steps being taken to "stop" the virus will:
[...]
(2) will cause 10 times the numbers of deaths that the virus itself will over the longer term.


Now who's panicking?

tim in vermont said...

The man believed to be coronavirus patient zero in Italy is a Pakistani migrant refused to self-isolate after testing positive for the virus and continued to deliver food.

Health authorities asked the man to quarantine himself at his home in the Pavia area for two weeks, but he ignored the request and continued to work at a Chinese restaurant.

He then compounded the risk of spreading the virus by making home deliveries of Chinese food.



OR.... Or this guy had contact with the Chinese community in Italy and was just a super spreader.

Anonymous said...

Mike (MJB Wolf): Everywhere I traveled this week my fellow Americans were upbeat, skeptical of the panic, but taking measures to work social distancing into their habits...

Yeah, my experience too. Not seeing any panic in the streets.

(Then again, toilet paper hasn't been on my shopping list since my last regularly-scheduled purchase a few weeks ago, so maybe there's some Black Friday-at-Walmart action out there that I'm as yet unaware of.)

Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...

I agree the government shouldn't do much regarding the economy at the moment. This is a time when the invisible hand should be left to its own devices. We don't need any more government debt.

Anonymous said...

Aunty Trump: Go ahead and poke holes in that if you can.

Not sure if this remark is directed at me, but my remark that you remarked on wasn't directed at you personally.

Anonymous said...

Big Mike: I do have to wonder. Is the ineptitude displayed thus far by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) due to their being politically partisan bureaucrats who are too inept to do what is right? Or are they as expert as advertised, but deliberately doing a poor job in order that the blame wash over Trump, no matter how many Americans die needlessly? Or is there some form of "AND" in there?

It's in the nature of bureaucracies to become both inept and politicized over time, but dare we suggest that policies like "commitment to diversity" and diverting resources into the latest social justice fads may hasten the inevitable decline?

CStanley said...

I’m stunned by the number of commenters here, a mostly very intelligent group, who don’t understand epidemiology at all.

Those who think this is just like flu, or compare it to the specific H1N1 flu pandemic...you aren’t accounting for several factors.

First, there is a difference between an endemic disease and a novel one, Even when there’s a novel strain of flu, it isn’t as dangerous as this might be because some people do have immunity to other previous strains that might cross protect them. That’s the consensus opinion about why the Spanish flu spared a fair number of older people and was worse for the young.

Second, because of #1, a novel virus will spread in a population more rapidly. The number of potential hospitalizations and deaths is not a static number, it’s the rate that matters in terms of overwhelming healthcare systems. It’s the sudden spike that is the biggest problem and that itself makes the number of fatalities go up (people who would have been very sick but survive will die without treatment.)

Three... think about the capacity of the healthcare system. We operate very close to capacity and we base the need for resources on estimates of a bad flu season. That doesn’t anticipate a sudden spike in patients because the flu outbreaks cause a more gradual caseload.

And finally....consider that the flu doesn’t take a break just because there’s a new virus in town. So even if, best case we have a new virus circulating that is about equal to the flu in virulence (making this assumption for this hypothetical even though indications are that it is worse), there will be a need to treat double the number of people that would need it during a normal flu season. And reviewing point #3, we don’t have the capacity for that.

Just because this is being politicized doesn’t mean it isn’t a real threat. The drastic measures may “flatten the curve” enough that we don’t have any catastrophic events. If that happens, the people who made the calls to cancel everything will be right to say that these measures worked.

tim in vermont said...

"We don't need any more government debt.”

That ship has sailed. The wealthy are all freaking out and their needs must be attended!

tim in vermont said...

One the bright side, when the Millennials live through this, they are going to finally know something. And in ten years a new generation is going to come along and explain to them that they know nothing.

Howard said...

So you people think coronaviruses for real now that's nice progress I suppose. now you're helping Trump with a cover story on his ineptitude unexpectedly

Fernandinande said...

China playing around.
"Switched-on bats: hosting viruses is a cost of flying"

They don't mention birds.

tcrosse said...

The Czech government said Friday it would ban all foreign travelers from entering and all Czechs from leaving the country as of March 16.

Howard said...

It doesn't matter how the horse got out of the barn it's f****** out and wrecking havoc. Only you pencil neck Cucks concentrate on the rearview mirror so they can feel Superior about their undying support for president flim-flam.

Maybe in a year's time you people will understand why we hate Trump so much and why his criminal ineptitude was potentially very damaging to this country and the world. understand right next to my PDS libtard friends that yes I misunderestimated the chaos capable from president chunky Happy meal

narciso said...

Did sars did mers did hini why are why not?

narciso said...

Have they reoccurred?
Why would this one.

tcrosse said...

The coronavirus outbreak is "likely to become an annual virus", the British Government's chief scientific officer, Sir Patrick Vallance, has conceded.
Sir Patrick said Britain needs "herd immunity" to combat the spread of Covid-19.

CStanley said...

Did sars did mers did hini why are why not?

They did not spread as widely. That’s probably because Covid-19 has an increased level of viral shedding in people who don’t even know they are sick or have mild illness.

This is a paradox of viruses...if they are too lethal they don’t spread as easily and an epidemic will Peter out.

Temujin said...

Decoupling from China would be a good, healthy first step. We have to maintain a relationship with China, but we spent the last 3 decades shipping our entire manufacturing structure- for all products and materials- over the China. The very thing that built the US into an economic giant, we basically handed over to the Chinese with nary a second thought by those in charge.

It has been said that the Chinese have not had to invent or create anything over the last 30 years. They either stole the information or it was handed over to them. I remember when Bill Clinton cleared the way for Loral Space & Communications to hand over their technology to the Chinese government. The US military was adamant against this. All the Chinese had to do was put a lot of money back into the Clinton's pockets and campaigns. Which they did. The CEO of Doral was a large Dem donor (and I'm sure some of his money came from China), and Yah-Lin 'Charlie' Trie and Johnny Chung became huge donors to the Clintons with money from China. (look 'em up if you don't know these guys).

In every industry except for the energy sector (thankfully) we have relinquished our ability to lead and make our own goods here, with jobs that would support middle class life. We, instead, shipped our middle class production over to China who is producing millionaire Communists while threatening the entire world. And this was before they were playing around with the virus that got out.

Decoupling and putting pressure on the Chinese internally would be a good move for the US now. This is something Trump had taken up before he got elected. Biden would not touch it. With Biden it will be business as usual (for him and Hunter).

Sebastian said...

Mid-morning and still no new Althouse post. I'm beginning to feel isolated.

Drago said...

Temujin: "Decoupling from China would be a good, healthy first step."

Yes, but it is clear the dems and LLR's have every intention of returning the US to a policy of putting the Chinese Communists in complete control of our critical supply chains again, particularly in health care and medicines.

It is insanity of course to put your geo-political rivals in charge of your own strategic supply lines, but that is precisely what our "experts" have done in precisely the same way the Germans are handing energy control over Germany to Putin.

But when the "elites" of a nation determine their allegiance is to other nations it can hardly be surprising that they refuse to do what is in the interest of their own country.

After all, doesn't everyone want access to the jumbo shrimp in Davos?

Howard said...

Drago deflecting from Trump's Corona disaster... unexpectedly

Drago said...

Howard: "Maybe in a year's time you people will understand why we hate Trump so much and why his criminal ineptitude was potentially very damaging to this country and the world."

And there it is.

Another dem covering for the Chinese Communists.

Yep, pitch perfect alignment between the dems and ChiCom messaging now.

We knew it was inevitable of course, still its interesting how blatant it is.

Drago said...

Howard: "Drago deflecting from Trump's Corona disaster... unexpectedly"

You will not see a single word of criticism for the ChiComs from any democrat, anywhere.

The entire US testing protocols that existed at the start of this were the result of the obiden-bama admin which consolidated all test kit design and production to one centrally controlled facility...run by "the experts"...and they screwed up the first test...which led to weeks of delay.

Now, the private sector has been engaged and surprise surprise, production has ramped up and kicking millions if units out the door in record time.

But remember, what ever you do dont you dare criticize the ChiComs...or the Iranians.

Lincolntf said...

If you are getting your coronavirus news from the same people who lied to you for years about Collusion, Kavanaugh, etc., then you are a fucking moron who has chosen ignorance as a lifestyle. Now go watch your DVR'd episodes of The View, you goddam simpletons. Leave the real world of science and medicine to thinking people.

Michael K said...


Blogger Howard said...

Drago deflecting from Trump's Corona disaster... unexpectedly


Interesting psychological profile. Howard believes in magic and Democrats, which of course is the same thing.

Drago said...

Trump said we needed to decouple from China.

The Howards of the world laughed at Trump and called him an idiot.

Then they spent 4 years making up one conspiracy after another. Then were heavily involved in sham impeachment when this ChiCom virus was kicking off.

Yeah, lets give all due "respect" to the left's latest rantings.

mockturtle said...

This is not doomsday but we should look upon it as a sneak preview.

pacwest said...

NCAA tourney cancelled.

The circuses are being cancelled. It's a Greek tragedy.

Howard said...

That ship has sailed, Drago. You keep focused on the narrative while the battle space has flipped over. When you face engine failure, your not fretting about the poor maintenance, you look for a good place you can make dead stick.

Michael K said...

I think that ultimately we are going towards remote learning. We almost have to. Our public K-12 schools are failing. It seems the more money you throw at them, the worse they perform. Few really get to go at their own pace, and the teachers tend to come from the lower quartile of SATs.

I agree but Ed majors, like Jill Biden (Doctor Biden) came from the bottom quintile of college students these days.

Brick and Mortar colleges should be restricted to those majors requiring labs. It would put a lot of leftist Democrats out of work but there are jobs in Starbucks.

Drago said...

Howard: "That ship has sailed, Drago. You keep focused on the narrative while the battle space has flipped over."

LOL

Anything to protect the precious ChiComs, eh Howard.

Sorry. We're not letting this go. Yoy'd better start coming up with a good rationale for putting China Joe back in office.

And no, Hunter needs a pay raise is not a good reason.

pacwest said...

After careful consideration I've decided to sell all my investments and sink the money into toilet paper. I can probably make a killing on it once the panic is over. Jesus.

Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...

The various ways the Trumpists are going to deny/attempt to salvage this fiasco is going to be psychologically interesting, if nothing else. I watched Hannity last night to try to figure out what the strategy would be. He had nothing. I assume he needs to follow the lead of smarter people. Maybe Rush has something today.

Howard said...

Drago relying on the 737Maxx autopilot to auger in.

Howard said...

ARM: Trumpists are in so deep, they can't come back to reality. That's why they focus on long-term macro economics in a pandemic.

tcrosse said...

The various ways the Trumpists are going to deny/attempt to salvage this fiasco is going to be psychologically interesting, if nothing else.

It's a world-wide public health crisis with vast economic effects. Evidently Trump should wave his hands and make it all go away. Otherwise, what good is he?

mockturtle said...

ARM, if you're going to deign to watch FOX News, watch Tucker Carlson. He's much smarter than Hannity.

Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...

Trump is a remarkably reckless guy. Talking up an equities bubble that had to last four years after an already impressive recovery was just insane. Almost anything could have burst that bubble. If it wasn't this it would have been something else.

Maybe he survives, I can't see how.

Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...

mockturtle said...
watch Tucker Carlson. He's much smarter than Hannity.


He is, but Hannity is a better gauge of what the house Trumpists think. Carlson is more a field Trumpist, he wanders off the plantation every now and then.

Michael K said...

Something else for Howard to ignore.

Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institutes of Health’s National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, appeared Thursday to downplay the hype surrounding a congressional doctor’s estimate that the U.S. could see 70 million to 150 million coronavirus cases.

Rep. Rashida Tlaib, D-Mich., asked Fauci about the estimate during a congressional hearing.

“Earlier this week, Congress’ attending physician told the Senate that he expects between 70 to 150 million people to contract the coronavirus in the United States,” said Tlaib, referring to figures reported by Axios on Wednesday. “Dr. Fauci, is he wrong?”

“I think we really need to be careful with those kinds of predictions, because that’s based on a model,” Fauci replied.

“So, all models are as good as the assumptions that you put into the model … it’s unpredictable. So, testing now is not going to tell me how many cases you are going to have. What will tell you what you’re going to have will be how you respond to it with containment and mitigation,” he continued.


Howard loves models, especially global warming models. Now you have a new one to play with.

Lincolntf said...

Hey, ARM, you fuckwit, it was Chuck Schumer who was calling sensible travel restrictions "racist" a few short weeks ago. And idiot Liberals like yourself cheered him on. Fucking imbeciles.

Michael K said...

He is, but Hannity is a better gauge of what the house Trumpists think.

He is a better gauge of what leftists think "Trumpists" think.

Michael K said...

He is, but Hannity is a better gauge of what the house Trumpists think.

He is a better gauge of what leftists think "Trumpists" think.

The left is still dealing with the Trump think think is there but that one is only in your heads.

I will say that Hannity was very clever to latch onto the Trump phenomenon.

Michael K said...

They think

Howard said...

Clever translates to opportunistic WRT Sean Hannity.

Tina Trent said...

Narciso: yes, SARS and MERS are still around, and CV19 will be too. Herd immunity may help.

Our tort law system is making professional sports teams cancel everything to avoid liability. Lawsuits as public health.



Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...

Lincolntf ...
fuckwit


There are three issues here, the stock bubble, the pandemic and the ensuing recession. Trump wholly owns the stock bubble. Trump owns the pandemic to the extent that the federal government under-performs relative to other federal governments - this is currently not looking good for Trump. The president always owns the recessions and I agree this is not entirely fair, for either Trump or Carter or Bush I.

Howard said...

Trump was 2-months late in getting serious about testing, Doc. Instead he relied on his PR model to combat the pandemic.

Lincolntf said...

So why was Chuck declaring travel restrictions racist and stupid? Doesn't he "own" the pandemic that he deliberately lied about to score political points with the idiot masses?

Michael K said...

Howard said...
Trump was 2-months late in getting serious about testing, Doc. Instead he relied on his PR model to combat the pandemic.


At least Howard is honest about how much he hates Trump. That might be progress. The fact that he inherited a CDC that has been preoccupied with politics, gun "control," etc. is ignored by those brave leftists culture warriors. The FDA has been sending inspectors to China that don't read or speak Chinese for years but it is Trump's fault. The Chinese had built "Potemkin factories" to shows these fake inspectors.

It's Trump's fault that our pharmaceutical manufacturing has been outsourced to China. When Trump tries to limit US dependence on China, he is attacked by Howard's left wing allies. When Democrats lie about Trump cutting funding to NIH and CDC , Howard's allies egg them on.

Normal people don't believe you, Howard.

"Impeachment Three" is not going to work either.

Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...

Chuck Schumer is powerless, he can't even block judges. What responsibility does a powerless politician have? What responsibility does McCarthy have for impeachment?

Lincolntf said...

ARM, when Chuck lied about the travel restrictions in order to score political points, did you fall for it? I'm guessing the answer to that is a big fat "YES". You probably even repeated the lie to others. Dolt.

Drago said...

Howard: "Trump was 2-months late in getting serious about testing,"

LOL

Your centralized "experts", having long ago cut off the private sector because "socialism", screwed up the tests! So all the tests had to be recalled!

In other nations, they had multiple test production and development facilities. But not the US. Nope. Thanks to the 2009/2010 obiden-bama rules changes.

Congrats Howard! All your eggs in one Govt basket wasnt the best strategy, was it?

But it did grow the fed govt, which you guys love.

So now that the US private non-ChiCom companies have stepped up to crank out millions of tests per week, how about you offer up some praise to them for that?

Bruce Hayden said...

Not sure what to think about COVID-19. Are we underreacting? Overreacting? Are all of us Boomers and older going to die? Everything is now so politicized, now that the Dems, and their MSM operatives, have completely pivoted from Impeachment to Coronavirus in order to destroy Trump. Trump promised test kits. They aren’t here yet, or really starting to flow yet. Not surprisingly, it looks like the CDC is the problem. Again. As usual. Someone asked whether it was as a result of incompetence or politicization. The response was that this is an AND and not an OR situation - both incompetent and political, very possibly a little bit of #Resistance on the part of Deep State bureaucrats against #OrangeManBad. No surprise yesterday that Biden’s policy, if he were President now, would be to trust the experts, hire a lot more of them for the for the Deep State bureaucracy, and give them more power. People are going to die (we don’t know if it is 1 or a million, but we are pretty sure that it is >0) because we trusted the federal bureaucracy to protect us. They didn’t, and are continuing to stand in the way. So it is now urgent that we trust the experts, the bureaucrats, and hire a lot more of them. So urgent that Speaker Palsi has included most every progressive wet dream in the House’s COVID-10 funding, up to, and including abortion funding. Not sure how they justify that under fighting COVID-19. Plus apparently funds for pre-K schooling, where apparently the idea is to take small kids out of homes, gathering them into small groups, where their sanitary habits guarantee that if one has something going in, they will all have it going back home. As I said, it is completely politicized now.

Which means that we are constantly bombarded by information about the pandemic. Some of it is good, much mediocre, and some likely political spin. What to believe? The secret about Italy’s problem may be that it was spread as a result of Fashion Week, which means that a lot of the Beautiful People may be infected. And now we find that Tom Hanks and his wife brought the coronavirus to Australia, potentially infecting each and every person wanting his autograph. Why was he flying there in the first place? Are special people like him supposedly immune to the precautions the rest of us are supposed to undertake? We at least know that his specialness didn’t actually make him immune from the consequences. And right now, I wouldn’t be the least nit surprised if the Glitterati ended up being one of the hardest hit demographics. I don’t expect Hanks and his wife to die. Probably too young but also likely to be near the front of the ine for antivirals, as they are proven successful- right behind prominent politicians.

Compounding this, I got a call this week from my kid and their significant other (SO). They quizzed me about our preparations. They know the demographics about the fatalities, and we here are considered moderately high risk. They promised to call every week to check in with us. SO is an entomologist by training, but tests water for a large municipal water supply, and so has had to become somewhat expert on viruses. So I got an education, that I probably didn’t need, about cleaning practices. One point though - aerosol sprays, such as Lysol are typically inferior to liquid application due to coverage - if the disinfectant doesn’t contact the virus, it can’t I’ll it. And aerosol applications often leave big gaps in coverage. If you are going to spray then do it until the surface starts to look wet.

But I am hampered by living with a woman who has seen death enough, and maybe even experienced it once, that she just figures that when it is her time, it will be her time. As well as having been raised by a prepper, even back in the 1960s, who always had at least 3 months of food stored in the house. As I result, we aren’t officially stockpiling food. So, I am sneaking stuff in, and hiding it in the garage.

Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...

Lincolntf ...
Dolt.


Drago has established a new standard for this blog. If you attribute an unlikely belief or statement to someone you must provide a link.

Link, please.

pacwest said...

"Impeachment Three" is not going to work either.

The left keeps firing blanks. The definition of insanity is.

The left is taking a huge risk withe CV19 panic. If this turns out to be a lesser pandemic than what they are hyping they lose yet again. Imagine putting your hopes on a political victory dependent on 100s of thousands of American deaths.

@Howard and ARM
You do realize this is the corner you are backing yourselves into, right?

Lincolntf said...

Answer the question, dolt. Did you fall for Chuck's race-baiting lie? How hard? Pretty hard, right?

Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...

If I 'fell' for it then there should be documentary evidence. Could you please provide this?

pacwest said...

On the lighter side

Powerline week in pictures has a TP hoarding edition. Tons of fun.

Lincolntf said...

I'm asking a question. Did you fall for it or not? Did you immediately recognize it as the dangerous dishonesty that it was? Do you even realize it now?

Bruce Hayden said...

“Brick and Mortar colleges should be restricted to those majors requiring labs. It would put a lot of leftist Democrats out of work but there are jobs in Starbucks”

That was in the back of my mind when I was writing that screed. I couldn’t figure out how to get around it. And this means that most of STEM grad school, including medicine, dentistry, etc, will continue to have to be campus based for the foreseeable future. Luckily the part of STE I was involved in could be done remotely in many cases. And for my kid, their field is pretty evenly divided between experimentation and analysis, with those involved in the latter essentially spending their research in grad school in front of a computer, which could potentially be done remotely. My kid lies a bit of hands on, so took the experimentation route (like their mother whom I couldn’t buy household appliances for her, but could buy power tools).

BTW - I absolutely hated labs in college. And that is why I didn’t take some classes that I later wished tat I had, like Organic Chemistry. I did great on exams, but was such a clutz in lab, that I struggled, at least until I learned how to dry lab, and not get caught (by adding an error quantity to my expected results).

Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...

These are your actual words:

Lincolntf said...
Hey, ARM, you fuckwit, it was Chuck Schumer who was calling sensible travel restrictions "racist" a few short weeks ago. And idiot Liberals like yourself cheered him on. Fucking imbeciles.


These statements are obviously poorly considered and you are now trying to revise history. No, you did not 'just ask a question'. You made an unfounded assertion. Either back up your assertion with proof or withdraw with an apology.

Drago has established a new standard for this blog. If you attribute an unlikely belief or statement to someone you must provide a link.

Link, please.

Lincolntf said...

Are you one of the idiot liberals who cheered him on or not?

Drago said...

Lincolntf: "I'm asking a question. Did you fall for it or not? Did you immediately recognize it as the dangerous dishonesty that it was? Do you even realize it now?"

ARM spent the better part of 2 years winking and smirking at the hoax dossier hookers peeing lie.

Now that doesn't mean he fell for that. It's likely he knew it was a lie, but was happy to play along in calling the US President a compromised russian spy/asset because Team Dem.

Ralph L said...

Walmart was out of rice in bags--white rice. Plenty of brown. What racists!

Silly Calabrese said...

I can't say anything that would add to the beauty of that photo.

Drago said...

My point Lincolntf, is that ARM, of all the lefties on this blog like Inga and Freder and LLR-lefty Chuck, usually sees thru the obvious lies of the left.

He just doesn't call them out because they serve his political party preferences.

Ray - SoCal said...

Hat Tip meaninginhistory.blogspot

This gives me a huge amount of hope that Coronavirus in the US may get stopped as the temperature increases in the next month or two. The temperature map vs. outbreaks is amazing!

On COVID-19 Seasonality

Drago said...

Ray-SoCal: "This gives me a huge amount of hope that Coronavirus in the US may get stopped as the temperature increases in the next month or two. The temperature map vs. outbreaks is amazing!"

This is why Trump has been trying to keep everyone calm. We do not want a panicked populace over-reacting until the test kits produced by the private sector companies that the dems hate and kicked out of the program in 2009/2010 come back on line (they already have which is why test kit availability is increasing geometrically) and the warmer weather arrives.

FullMoon said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Drago said...

We could really use some open borders right now, right dems?

Oh, and more abortion, according to Pelosi.

Did you hear about the 300+ chinese nationals attempting to cross our border illegally from Mexico earlier this week?

Good times, good times....

Ray - SoCal said...

Interesting how fast things are changing. I wrote this comment up two days ago, so slightly out of date. The new test being approved by Roche is very exciting, as is the temperature map vs. Coronavirus spread.

CoronaVirus Scenarios - A Few SWAG's

Best Case Below, with my guess on chance of it actually happening.

1. A miracle happens, and testing in the US is increased by X100 and it results in the CoronaVirus being contained within a month as is happening in South Korea. The current attitude seems to be it's in the community spreading stage. And the CDC does not seem to have the ability / interest to trace diseases anymore. 10% chance of happening. Chance of this happening, 5%.

2. A vaccine is produced for general use within 6 months and approved. To much bureaucracy by the FDA and CDC will delay this. Traditional methods for vaccine production take a while. Recombinant technology may allow much faster production. 20% chance.

3. A vaccine is produced within 12 months. 50% chance.

4. DARPA treatment to increase immune system for CoronaVirus is released within 3 months - 30% chance

5. Warm Weather stops spread of CoronaVirus, as happens with regular flu. Flu season in the US is October through May. 60% chance.

6. K-12 schools are closed to stop spread in US. 30% chance of happening in US.

7. Vaccine is produced within 18 months - 95% chance.

8. Everyone in US starts wearing masks, that stops spread of virus, which stops the spread. Lots of follow up is done with those with Coronavirus to stop spread. The US just does not have the production.

9. CoronaVirus does poorly in hot, humid areas.

10. An instant results test is created.

11. Some type of treatment works for those that catch CoronaVirus (current in clinical trial). Rumors of anti Viral, Aids Type medicines working

12. China actually has Wuhan Virus under control, and gets back to full industrial production,100%, and US starts receiving stuff within 60 days. 50% Chance.

13. Iran Government Collapses due to Corona virus, and Shiite Arc across the Middle East is stopped. 20%

14. North Korea Collapses due to Coronavirus and lack of imports from China. Reunites peacefully with South Korea 10%.

15. Saudi Arabia and Russia come to agreement within a month, saving major hurt to US Fracking Industry. 30%

Lincolntf said...

Got it, Drago. There's a fine line between true ignorance and feigned ignorance when it comes to the Left, I can never be quite sure which I'm dealing with.

Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...

I am very disappointed that Drago is not insisting on full application of the Drago Rules. The Drago Rules were a remarkably valuable addition to civilized discourse on this site and I am deeply disappointed that the inventor of these Rules lacks sufficient faith in his own genius to insist on their full enforcement.

Deeply disappointed.

Lincolntf said...

You still haven't answered the question, dolt.

mockturtle said...

I don't know. The spread seems to be based more on ports of entry than on temperature. And it could be that in warm, humid climates people aren't indoors as much infecting other people.

Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...

You didn't ask a question, you made an unfounded slander for which you have yet to apologize. I am asking Drago to look into this incident.

mockturtle said...

Angle-Dyne observes: It's in the nature of bureaucracies to become both inept and politicized over time, but dare we suggest that policies like "commitment to diversity" and diverting resources into the latest social justice fads may hasten the inevitable decline?

And wasn't the CDC heavily invested in promoting gun control during the past decade, parading it as a public health issue but which has zip to do with 'Disease Control'?

Lincolntf said...

I made an assumption, not an accusation, dolt. I'm pretty sure I assumed correctly.

mockturtle said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Drago said...

Lincolntf: "I made an assumption, not an accusation, dolt. I'm pretty sure I assumed correctly."

You did.

Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...

These are your actual words:

Lincolntf said...
Hey, ARM, you fuckwit, it was Chuck Schumer who was calling sensible travel restrictions "racist" a few short weeks ago. And idiot Liberals like yourself cheered him on. Fucking imbeciles.


'I made an assumption' does not appear to adequately characterize these words. Still waiting for my 'Drago-approved'™ apology.

Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...

My disappointment in Drago's reluctance to embrace his own genius and great moral insight is deeper than a Trump-induced stock market swoon.

tim in vermont said...

Enjoying yourself ARM?

Drago said...

To this point in time, not a single democrat has offered praise for the private sector companies coming to the rescue on test kit production and private lab testing nor for Trump being the most aggressive world leader shutting down travel from the China hotspots.

On top of Pelosi holding up the corona virus funding bill and trying to force abortion funding clauses in it, that tells you everything you need to know about the dems/left.

Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...

Italy shut down travel from China even earlier. Do they deserve even more praise for their handling of the crisis?

Lincolntf said...

Answer the question, dolt.

Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...

Still waiting for you apology. Here are your exact words:

Lincolntf said...
Hey, ARM, you fuckwit, it was Chuck Schumer who was calling sensible travel restrictions "racist" a few short weeks ago. And idiot Liberals like yourself cheered him on. Fucking imbeciles.


No question, just mindless invective. Your intellect and character are reflected in those words.

Rusty said...

Apparently Howard and ARM need a national daddy figure to tell them what to do.
Don't panic kids. Things are going to be OK. Wash your hands and quit hanging out with the other democrats. They're a bad influence.

Jim at said...

Hysteria? What is going to have to happen to get you folks to take this thing seriously?

When one, young, healthy person - just one - dies of the coronavirus and the coronavirus only.

Michael K said...

Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...
Italy shut down travel from China even earlier. Do they deserve even more praise for their handling of the crisis?


I'm sure ARM just forget to include his link.

Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...

Pretty sure Google still works out where you live.

Rusty said...


Hysteria? What is going to have to happen to get you folks to take this thing seriously?

Who says we're not taking it seriously? Rational people respond rationaly. You go ahead and panic if you want.

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