March 27, 2020

At the Springtime Café...

0A6B4F2C-CAE7-4ABD-A4FA-2F2AA344CA03_1_201_a

... you can talk about whatever you want.

136 comments:

Jersey Fled said...

I love springtime. It seems I love it more and more each year.

Mark said...

And now –

Star Trek: A Quinn Martin Production

Starring William Shatner . . . Leonard Nimoy . . . and . . . the Other Guy.

Tonight’s Episode: The Favorite

Mark said...

"We need a controlled study before we can use hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin!! That's SCIENCE, not fantasy!"

In ideal academic circumstances, perhaps. But controlled study means giving some infected people the equivalent of nothing. Which means likely condemning them to death if, in fact, it actually does work as well as advertised.

How ethical is that?

Mark said...

'Mild Improvements' for David Lat, but Prognosis Still Uncertain

“There have been mild improvements in his oxygen and his breathing, but he remains intubated and we are still very far from out of the woods,” said Zachary Baron Shemtob, Lat’s husband, in an interview Thursday.

Lat was given hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin.

Sebastian said...

"Which means likely condemning them to death"

Why? As best I can tell, most people recover without medication.

Mark said...

Sounds like deep-state FDA-ers want to slow-walk any trials.

Mark said...

They only give it to the people who are NOT likely to recover on their own.

Mark said...

If you look very, very carefully, you can see Sisko and Dax in the background. O’Brien mistakes a common crewman for Captain Kirk. Worf is not amused. At least they remembered that Kirk was an historic hero. TNG treated him like, Captain Who?

Kirk isn’t looking very carefully, however, because he does not recognize Trelane.

Enlighten-NewJersey said...

A 25-year-old New Jersey man is fighting for his life after a lab lost a test that showed he was positive for the coronavirus — delaying his treatment, reports say.

Jack Allard, a two-time All American lacrosse player, was placed in a medically induced coma at an Edison hospital after being tested for COVID-19.

His mother, Genny Allard, told Pix11 News that her son first got sick on March 13 when he started experiencing a high fever, back pain and started throwing up. “We thought he had a kidney infection,” she told the station.

His health deteriorated and he was placed on a ventilator in the intensive care unit, where he was tested for the coronavirus, WABC reported. But the lab lost the test, which delayed his access to special experimental treatment by at least five days, the report said.

“My son is healthy, no pre-existing conditions and he’s 25. This virus is really dangerous and now he is very, very sick,” Genny told WABC.

Jack was eventually airlifted to the University of Pennsylvania on Tuesday for a clinical trial for the Ebola drug Remdesivir. “Remdesivir is one of the anti-virals that has been shown to limit the viral activity,” Dr. Laila Woc-Colburn, an infectious disease professor at Baylor College, told PIX11 News.

Genny said her otherwise healthy son’s ordeal has revealed that “we’re in uncharted waters in the world” with the pandemic. “He never vaped, he never smoked,” the mother told WABC. “He took his health very seriously — I mean he’s an athlete.”

Ken B said...

Listening to Haydn String Quartets. All of them ... There are a lot of them, and they are all excellent.

Sebastian said...

"They only give it to the people who are NOT likely to recover on their own."

But if you want to do a controlled study, you can enroll seriously afflicted people who, by virtue lack of co-morbities, would be "likely to recover."

The French study claimed to find significant responses within days, faster, it would seem, than a regular immune response. If the mechanism holds, that should be replicable.

Mark said...

It is understandable to want to find someone to blame. But his conditions likely should have told the docs to treat him as if he tested positive, even if the results were delayed -- or "lost."

Sebastian said...

"Jack Allard, a two-time All American lacrosse player, was placed in a medically induced coma"

The first athlete that I've heard about. If the first of many, that's serious. If not, that's reassuring.

narciso said...

That was ds9 wasnt it, tng altered the time line a number of times,

Ken B said...

Mark
In a double blind no one knows who does or doesn’t get it. Just as no one knows if it will or will not work.

If the results are extreme they intervene.

Mark said...

Art imitates real life. The Kirk and Enterprise crew have to deal with an infection, an infestation, of exponential growth.

Mark said...

We'll be sure to put Ken in the placebo category.

Ken B said...

We had a fake report here. A woman claimed she had it to get a day off sick. She worked at MacDonalds. She has been charged. I would give her a harsh sentence indeed.

Mark said...

We had a fake report here. A woman claimed she had it to get a day off sick. She worked at MacDonalds. She has been charged. I would give her a harsh sentence indeed.

That is entirely lawful under the CARES Act, which passed today.

mockturtle said...

I concur with the commenter who recently suggested that online newspapers should suspend their paywalls during this crisis. It's frustrating to run up against more and more paywalls when searching for information. [Note that I'm not bothered with the NYT or the WaPo paywalls, as I'd never read them anyway].

Ken B said...

Mark
What is the CARES act?
I live in Canada. Here fraud and lying about infectious diseases in an emergency are illegal.

narciso said...

<href="https://mobile.twitter.com/TheCriticalDri2?ref_src="> maybe he was locutus all along </a>

Ken B said...

Mockturtle
Yeah. Pornhub is a better corporate citizen than the Washington Post!

But you knew that already ...

Mark said...

“Jim, this man is a Klingon!”

narciso said...

that was back when trek had humor

mockturtle said...

Enlighten-New Jersey: I watched an interview with the mother the other day. Yes, this is uncharted territory. I saw a report from a Taiwanese source that said that Chinese physicians are reporting [surreptitiously] that some people who recovered are being re-infected and that some die from heart failure. Apparently the newly acquired antibodies are not strong enough to fight it. This is a very clever and very scary virus. Only time will tell just how clever and how scary.

Mark said...

CARES Act is the $2 trillion relief package enacted by the United States Congress today.

Lucien said...

Waiting for the WaPo and NYT deep dives into Tara Reid’s charges against Joe Biden — maybe an expose by Ronan Farrow.
Or is she just another Juanita Broaddrick?

Mark said...

Another Klingon mockingly speaks with a Scottish accent just before Scotty punches him in the face. A John Wayne movie type of fight involving the entire bar then ensues.

Mark said...

I wasn't sure at first. I mean, he looked so young.

But after a while, sure enough, it was him.

A young Mitt Romney guest starring as the weasel Arne Darvin, who is a Klingon in a human suit.

traditionalguy said...

It must be the third Day already. And then God said, let the land produce vegetation:seed bearing plants and trees on the land that bear fruit with seed, in it according to their various kinds.

Fortunately,God was not like Joe Biden confusing words.

Big Mike said...

I love springtime. It seems I love it more and more each year.

@Jersey Fled, when you get into your seventies you begin to wonder how many more springs you’ll see.

Narr said...

Ken B-- not all once I hope. Even Data would have trouble with that.

Love Haydn-- the volume and quality of his work is astounding. The Beethoven late quartets have grabbed me lately . . . but they take time and attention.

Narr
The Trouble With Trekkies (just kidding, y'all enjoy the evening!)

FullMoon said...

"We need a controlled study before we can use hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin!! That's SCIENCE, not fantasy!"

Tucker had a New York doctor in the midst of the worst on. The doc has been taking hydroxychloroquine as a preventative. Next doc interviewed said it is commonly used by doctors as anti-virus med..

narciso said...

There was a buck rogers episode which has lizard creature gorn like infiltrating a directorate post in the regretable 2nd season.

Ken B said...

Mark
Ah, you were making a joke. I missed it.

mandrewa said...

Mark said,

"They only give it to the people who are NOT likely to recover on their own."

Yes, I know Mark. It's so incredibly irritating. It's a pre-arranged failure.

Further we already know this. We already know that hydroxychloroquine is going to be marginally effective at saving people who are already close to death. We don't need to run a double-blind trial to establish that.

But it gives the many people who reason by authority, "expert opinion,' all the ammo they need to claim this doesn't work.

To fake a medical trial all you need to do is set the wrong goal.

Ken B said...

Narr
Nope, but there are 23 discs and I have a multidisc player!
Haydn's piano music is very underrated.

Michael K said...

Genny said her otherwise healthy son’s ordeal has revealed that “we’re in uncharted waters in the world” with the pandemic. “He never vaped, he never smoked,” the mother told WABC. “He took his health very seriously — I mean he’s an athlete.”

This is another case of delayed treatment. A young person like that probably has a Cytokine Storm. Early hydroxychloroquine would likely have prevented this.

The Tucson case that I linked to was similarly delayed. Mostly because of inertia by the local doc. Although the test kit may have been unavailable,.

Big Mike said...

@Lucien, did you mean Tara Reade?

Be interesting to see whether he goes the Epstein route, or she does.

Mark said...

Looking at the numbers, the U.S. death rate is about 1/7 that of Italy.

Mark said...

If they re-do a lot of the space scenes, they could have modified the TOS episode to put the DS9 characters in, just as they did in the DS9 series.

That DS9 episode, by the way, should have won a ton of awards.

ngtrains said...

it's just my opinion, but I see a Federal Judge in Connecticut ruled in favor of the three girls who were protesting
trans females competing against girls in high school track. (Our two daughters ran track and I know how hard they
trained to compete.)

It will be interesting to see an appeal to this one.

ngtrains said...

it's just my opinion, but I was pleased to see a Federal Judge in Connecticut ruled in favor of the three girls who were protesting
trans females competing against girls in high school track. (Our two daughters ran track and I know how hard they
trained to compete.)

It will be interesting to see an appeal to this one.

StephenFearby said...

Douay-Rheims Bible
The wolf shall dwell with the lamb: and the leopard shall lie down with the kid: the calf and the lion, and the sheep shall abide together, and a little child shall lead them.

NY Post March 27, 2020 | 10:32pm

Trump praises Mayor de Blasio: ‘I’ve really gotten to like him’ amid coronavirus crisis

President Trump on Friday said he’s “really gotten to like” New York Mayor Bill de Blasio, saying they bonded while responding to the coronavirus outbreak.

“He’s like us, he’s working very hard. But I can’t say anything bad about Mayor de Blasio because my relationship with him over the last couple of weeks has been excellent,” Trump told reporters at a White House press conference.

https://nypost.com/2020/03/27/trump-praises-mayor-de-blasio-ive-really-gotten-to-like-him-amid-coronavirus-crisis/

The final kiss of death for DeBlasio's political aspirations.

walter said...

Just got off a phone call with a friend in L.A.
His ex gf works in an urgent care that's been crazy busy.
A colleague of hers there has tested positive.
Other docs there won't be tested.
Oh kee doke.

narciso said...

Thats lucas putting jabba and all the ctitters in a new hope, clutters thr picture

ngtrains said...

Sorry - I misread the brief - the dept of Justice has filed a brief in favor of the girls suit.

this legal stuff cann be confusing.

Mark said...

Huh? Care to explain, Worf??

He doesn't care to explain, and a bar fight ensues.

Meanwhile, with Kirk and Spock walking down the hall, Jadzia sees them and confesses to Sisko that she has the hots for you-know-who.

Inga said...

My pregnant friend in New York City, whose husband, a doctor got Covid, tested positive and is now pretty ill, on bed rest and on oxygen. Her husband the doc, is doing better, but still home with her thank goodness. They have three children, so far none have any symptoms.

ex-madtown girl said...

Today’s state park was Mirror Lake. Another first time park for our family- I always figured it’d be overcrowded in the warmer weather due to its proximity to the Dells. Lovely trails, especially in the lower areas, but it was a bit disappointing to never escape the sound of the freeway rushing by so close. Get outside people!!! As often as you can! :)

Mark said...

But Sisko does get the chance to meet his hero.

The episode should have won awards.

Lawrence Person said...

Enjoy a Friday LinkSwarm.

mockturtle said...

Inga, that's a frightening situation for your friend. Do you know if this virus can have teratogenic effects?

Mark said...

Thats lucas putting jabba and all the ctitters in a new hope, clutters thr picture

Yeah, I'm not familiar with that movie series.

I think I once dreamed about something involving wars in the stars, but it was only something I imagined. It wasn't real.

narciso said...

He shows more range than stewart, as much as bakula

narciso said...

No thats dr who, they fahrfegnugened it, i think i was first familar with thr six million dollar man, then battlestar and buck rogers, i remember seeimg space seed around 1978.

Kathryn51 said...

We had "sprouts" like the ones in Althouse photo a couple of weeks ago. Crocus - lovely crocus. Peter Rabbit(s) came out of hiding and now they are all cropped short. Baby bunnies should be appearing in a few weeks.

walter said...

An all of the above approach:
https://patch.com/new-jersey/manalapan/manalapan-woman-given-experimental-drugs-survives-coronavirus

"Novins was discharged Wednesday from CentraState Medical Center in Freehold, where she has been hospitalized for the past ten days. CentraState is the same hospital where four members of one single family, the Fuscos, died of the virus last week.

It's at CentraState where she was given a series of off-label drugs, including remdesivir (a drug originally developed to treat Ebola), Plaquenil (the brand name for the anti-malarial hydroxychloroquine) and azithromycin, an antibiotic with the common brand names Zithromax/Z-Pak. After being given the meds, she said she "turned a corner" fighting the virus.

"I'm not comfortable saying it's that specific drug combo," said Novins. "I was also given an HIV drug, and anti-virals. I think they really don't know yet what works. But I can say the first thing they gave me was the Plaquenil and azithromycin, and I definitely turned a corner at that point."

The chief medical officer at CentraState, Dr. James Matera, confirmed they are giving Plaquenil, remdesivir and azithromycin to "some" covid-19 patients, but stressed that he could not speak to its efficacy, saying more clinical trials on the drugs are needed."

Big Mike said...

@ngtrains, about time we see some common sense. A child who has passed through puberty as a male has a huge advantage physiologically over a child who passed through puberty as a female, in terms of muscle mass and the like.

narciso said...

Also i remember project blue book with the fellow that played col flagg.

Mark said...

Joe Biden can't debate Comrade Sanders again because Joe is too busy leading the effort to combat the coronavirus outbreak.

That's his excuse.

Mark said...

Doctor What?

I gave up on that when they revealed that the Moon is actually an egg.

Mark said...

he could not speak to its efficacy, saying more clinical trials on the drugs are needed

And that can be determined only by NOT giving it to some patients and if THEY die, then the testers can tell that it is the drugs that are making people better.

Drago said...


Hong Kong Free Press @HongKongFP 10h

"Footage from Hubei, #China appears to show residents attacking officers and police vehicles on a bridge as they attempt to access neighbouring Jiangxi province. The unrest follows weeks of #coronavirus lockdown in Hubei."

I was assured yesterday that if this information did not come from US intelligence services it could not be true.

Mark said...

Meanwhile, we all know that the Moon broke away from Earth before the turn of the century and is now traveling through space.

Inga said...

“Inga, that's a frightening situation for your friend. Do you know if this virus can have teratogenic effects?”

Don’t know, I doubt her OB knows either, but told her not to worry.

narciso said...

carrying over

Mark said...

Whoops, that's an error.

We apologize for the inconvenience.

Try refreshing the page to see if things are back in order.

Mark said...

Ow! My eye! I'm not supposed to get pudding in it!

narciso said...

That was weird because itm was the same company behind the muppets show

walter said...

Yeah Mark,
He pretty much has to say that, given he's straying from "standard of care"..that doesn't really exist at this point.
Though the trial system typically tries new drugs in worst case scenarios (likely dooming some to premature shelving) the enormity of things currently and the availability of off-label options are pushing some to operate outside the box.

chuck said...

For those interested in the model that prompted the earlier post, it is also available state by state, you can see it here and pick your state.

The model itself is very simple, the hard work went into estimating the parameters to stick into the equations. Real life is all about working with dirty data.

J. Farmer said...

A small window into local politics. My immediate family (parents, two older sisters) voted for Trump. I voted for Trump. Our political differences are narrow but deep. We are all of the opinion that it is best to essentially ignore him amid the current crisis. I have absolutely zero interest in getting into a back and forth on the topic. Just thought I'd put it out there.

Yancey Ward said...

"Meanwhile, we all know that the Moon broke away from Earth before the turn of the century and is now traveling through space."

As I kid, I owned the models of the two kinds of "Space 1999" ships. I even made my own Moonbase Alpha out of the little colored wooden blocks my sister and I had gotten for Christmas a few years earlier.

Drago said...

Farmer: "We are all of the opinion that it is best to essentially ignore him amid the current crisis."

Just Trump, or others as well?

Yancey Ward said...

"That was weird because itm was the same company behind the muppets show"

Yes, where I lived, it aired the hour after "The Muppets" and "Sha Na Na".

narciso said...

https://www.scribd.com/document/452403558/Primary-Sub-Source

narciso said...

Its on comet and on the classic tv bloc onpluto

Sebastian said...

Question for the MSM: how many newspapers need to go under due to lack of advertising before you start clamoring for a shutdown of the shutdowns?

cubanbob said...

Michael K said...
Genny said her otherwise healthy son’s ordeal has revealed that “we’re in uncharted waters in the world” with the pandemic. “He never vaped, he never smoked,” the mother told WABC. “He took his health very seriously — I mean he’s an athlete.”

This is another case of delayed treatment. A young person like that probably has a Cytokine Storm. Early hydroxychloroquine would likely have prevented this."

In addition I read that he was sent to Philly because he needed to put on an ECMO machine. If you need an ECMO machine you a very near death and a ventilator isn't sufficient for blood oxygenation. The machine needs a full time nurse to monitor it and there are than three such machines in the US. I suspect that only the young who are that ill will get that treatment.

Guildofcannonballs said...

I don't believe a decent person allows Obama to conclude he was/is/will be anything but a Chicago grifter a positive.

I will not renew my 30 day free Net flix trial

cubanbob said...

Blogger J. Farmer said...
A small window into local politics. My immediate family (parents, two older sisters) voted for Trump. I voted for Trump. Our political differences are narrow but deep. We are all of the opinion that it is best to essentially ignore him amid the current crisis. I have absolutely zero interest in getting into a back and forth on the topic. Just thought I'd put it out there."

I have relatives that are hard core Democrats but they moan about high taxes. Very intelligent and accomplished people. Yet in this they can't see cause and effect.

I Have Misplaced My Pants said...

I have relatives that are hard core Democrats but they moan about high taxes. Very intelligent and accomplished people. Yet in this they can't see cause and effect.

I have lots of friends who are hard core Democrats but they also moan about high taxes, and also moan about the environment but take multiple lavish international vacations a year. My favorite was their selfies from a glacier in Iceland disappearing because of climate change!!! Um, did you get there via kayak?

I travel as much as my budget allows and I deeply love aviation, so I'm not criticizing that at all, but I also don't puff around and pretend to care about climate change.

Birkel said...

I will leave this here:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1732539/
Apparently losing 3-6 trillion dollars of economic activity could have adverse health impacts on people.

Query this:
Has anybody asked the older set if they would prefer to be forced into isolation?
I have an elderly neighbor who quite clearly voices her displeasure at the thought of isolation.
I expect many elderly die from loneliness.
Anybody care to argue otherwise?

Yancey Ward said...

The Critical Drinker summarizes his critique of "Picard"

Yancey Ward said...

"Has anybody asked the older set if they would prefer to be forced into isolation?
I have an elderly neighbor who quite clearly voices her displeasure at the thought of isolation."


My observations are that they won't comply. I wrote here a few days ago that their perspective is different from that of much younger people- the price of isolation is far greater and the potential price of death far less- they just have fewer years left.

If I were 70, I wouldn't comply either.

Guildofcannonballs said...

Me Aussie Bites used to get overly-oxegenated.

Now they are individually wrapped: no over-oxenegenation.

I piss on Earth so Earth pisses on me back.

I Have Misplaced My Pants said...

Has anybody asked the older set if they would prefer to be forced into isolation?

My favorite anecdote in Electric Corona Boogaloo is the old guy who clearly DGAF as he was pushing a disgusting Walmart cart around the store, barehanded, eating an unwrapped Subway sandwich.

That and the thousand or so old folks, some with chemo-bald heads and oxygen tanks, wandering around the Mesa, AZ swap meet as all the shit was beginning to hit the fan. And then going to In-n-Out up the road with them for lunch.

I'm just shaking my damn head at all of this, not mad y'all, but no one asked me if I would be preferred to be forced into isolation, and no one for damn sure asked my kids if they wanted this either.

walter said...

I can't take much more praise of Xi.
I take it he's being good cop but..still.

walter said...

It should be enough to say he's working with him to help our situation.

walter said...

Sigmund Friedrich
@SigmundFriedri1
·
2h
Seasonal flu = 1 death / 1000
With Raoult's treatment we are basically at seasonal flu level.
No need to stop the world for this coronavirus anymore, just like we do not stop the world for the flu every winter.

Sigmund Friedrich Retweeted
Adam Baldwin
@AdamBaldwin
·
6h
“Over 65 Doctors, Medical Professionals And Scientists Call For Government To Use Hydroxychloroquine To Fight Coronavirus.”
https://t.co/e5ZY2OfLBt?amp=1

Bob said...

"That and the thousand or so old folks, some with chemo-bald heads and oxygen tanks, wandering around the Mesa, AZ swap meet as all the shit was beginning to hit the fan. And then going to In-n-Out up the road with them for lunch."

I'd think if you'll take the trouble to endure cancer treatment and portable oxygen, you should be okay with some preventive isolation. Why try to live through cancer treatment only to die a possibly-agonizing death from a disease that won't let you breathe?

walter said...

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/new-coronavirus-leaves-pregnant-women-wrenching-choices-little-data-guide-them

Ty said...

They should make a Star Trek series that picks up right after "First Contact". The first ship is rudimentary and uncomfortable like a submarine. The vessel is crewed by a joint venture of research scientists (nerds) and the military (jocks) creating plenty of conflict. A reluctant Vulcan is on board but can't interfere unless the "children" he monitors create a truly catastrophic scenario. On earth we witness the birth of Starfleet Academy, much like the Wright School of Aviation from the early 1900s. But the underlying arc is the human spirit and the optimistic pursuit of the unknown.

walter said...

https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20200303_20/amp.html?__twitter_impression=true

Asthma drug seems effective for COVID-19 pneumonia

Japanese doctors say an asthma drug appears to be effective in reducing symptoms of coronavirus patients who developed pneumonia.

A medical team at Ashigarakami hospital in Kanagawa Prefecture treated patients who became ill aboard the Diamond Princess cruise ship. They have announced the results of their study on the Japanese Association for Infectious Diseases' website.

Their report says three patients were given an asthma drug called Ciclesonide, a steroid inhalant to suppress the immune system.

The medical team said the patients were all over 65 years of age and had oxygen support, but were not in serious condition.
The research shows that the patients were given Ciclesonide on February 20 and their health improved in about two days. A 73-year-old woman is said to have been discharged.

The doctors say they used the drug after receiving information about it from the National Institute of Infectious Diseases.

They say the drug reaches the lungs where the virus is multiplying so it could be effective in reducing inflammation there.

The medical team plans to investigate the effectiveness of the treatment jointly with other medical institutions because they treated only a small number of patients.

Kyjo said...

@J. Farmer,

My parents, both Trump voters, like to watch his daily press briefings. They trust him implicitly. So also my two younger brothers, who find him immensely entertaining. I couldn’t bring myself to vote for Trump (nor Clinton) in 2016, though I intend to vote for him come November. I have to ration any time I spend watching or listening to him. His speaking style and mannerisms consistently grate on my nerves. I really despise the meandering, repetition, and puffery. But having watched substantial chunks of his press briefings over the last week, I find his sense of humor more amusing than I would have thought. He also has impressive energy and stamina, and I guess I’m not above a little schadenfreude when he abuses the jackals they call journalists. Still, I’d rather he pass over the more doltish questions they ask and focus on useful information. Pence is a fine speaker, with an even temperament; a good choice. Trump should perhaps let him do the lion’s share of speaking. But that’ll never happen.

sunsong said...

This.
"There will be three main effects of this presidency if it continues:
1. He will worsen the pandemic multifold (in addition to what he has worsened)
2. He will stoke divisions
3. He will vastly augment suffering, which he will be able to direct into widespread violence"
~ Bandy X Lee, MD

rehajm said...

Apparently losing 3-6 trillion dollars of economic activity could have adverse health impacts on people

Cass Sunstein agrees. From WSJ:

Our country’s premier advocate for cost-benefit analysis has written about the coronavirus. He is Cass Sunstein, the Harvard law professor and former Obama White House regulatory guru...the proposals he cites define aggressive social distancing to mean something less stringent than the sweeping mandatory business shutdowns and shelter-in-place commands already in force around the country.. One study proposes seven-day isolation of those with symptoms, 14-day isolation of exposed households, and “dramatically reduced social contact for all those over 70 years of age.” The other, sterner study proposes closing schools, theaters and sports venues.
m. Even so, Mr. Sunstein allows that if the economic depression is long-lasting or the recovery slow, the costs “start to explode” and need to be rethought. And nowhere does he suggest costs shouldn’t be considered at all...


If you've lost CassSunstein...

Mr. Forward said...

Americans with TDS are advised to continue to shelter in place for the next five years.

Etienne said...

I went grocery shopping yesterday. The shelves have been pretty much restocked except for toilet paper (which is fine, as I like my wife's bidet just swell).

I was surprised at the traffic. Not many are staying home. But hand cleaner is deployed everywhere in the stores.

stevew said...

Best wishes to your friend Inga for a speedy and complete recovery. The person I was exposed to that was confirmed and developed symptoms is nearly completely recovered. Her symptoms were bad but not so bad that she had to be hospitalized. It will be two weeks on Tuesday since first onset of the symptoms.

My MIL lives in FL and is 88 years old. She and her local buddies, nearly all elderly women, are quite seriously annoyed at the social distancing regime. The expressed attitude is, "If I get it I get it". Mrs. stevew finds this cavalier and upsetting. MIL has taken to complaining about all the New Yorkers that have been skipping off to Florida. She's an adult, can and does do what she wants, that's my attitude at least. Mostly keep it to myself.

Been watching some of each of the daily briefings - one of the features of being home every night - and find them informative (Birx and Fauci particularly) and entertaining (Trump). I feel a little guilty about the latter. The last couple of nights it seems to me that the press are asking good and insightful questions, less of the gotcha variety. I agree that Trump would do well to reduce his speaking time, his role in these is less valuable as the data accumulate and more becomes known.

Glorious spring day yesterday, lots of similar green stuff popping up here. We are (fingers crossed) close to having our house sold. If it goes through as planned we've got about six weeks to pack up and get out. To where they asked? TBD. Interesting to note that the paperwork now includes Covid provisions such that if we cannot acquire services to inspect or move in time to meet the agreed upon deadlines they, the deadlines, will automatically extend.

tim in vermont said...

"2. He will stoke divisions”

Isn’t accusing Trump without evidence of multiplying the effects of the pandemic “stoking division”?

wendybar said...

sunsong said...
This.
"There will be three main effects of this presidency if it continues:
1. He will worsen the pandemic multifold (in addition to what he has worsened)
2. He will stoke divisions
3. He will vastly augment suffering, which he will be able to direct into widespread violence"
~ Bandy X Lee, MD
3/28/20, 3:53 AM

Yeah...The psychiatrist from Yale who tried to diagnose Trump without ever meeting him. Another whack job.

wendybar said...

Bandy Lee talking points are all pointing to the Propaganda media and the Democrats in Congress!!!

tim in vermont said...

"The psychiatrist from Yale who tried to diagnose Trump without ever meeting him. Another whack job.”

Didn’t she refuse to diagnose Joe Biden? Yeah, that’s right. It’s only ethical to diagnose Republicans using criteria made up of partisan cant, or something to that effect, was her excuse. I think what she actualy said was that Biden didn’t scare her as much. Maybe she should try some cognitive behavioral therapy techniques on herself, like turning off CNN and MSNBC?

Paco Wové said...

"Question for the MSM: how many newspapers need to go under due to lack of advertising before you start clamoring for a shutdown of the shutdowns?"

Surely you realize they would never do such a thing – they would demand government subsidy instead.

Mark said...

My MIL lives in FL and is 88 years old. She and her local buddies, nearly all elderly women, are quite seriously annoyed at the social distancing regime. The expressed attitude is, "If I get it I get it".

At some point, a lot of people come to grips with the inevitability of death. Often it is people who have already lived a long life. And at some point, they have "been there, done that" and are "ready to go" as if they were waiting on someone before taking a trip.

In having that attitude, it also helps that you do not, or no longer, have any dependents that you need to take care of.

mockturtle said...

My MIL lives in FL and is 88 years old. She and her local buddies, nearly all elderly women, are quite seriously annoyed at the social distancing regime. The expressed attitude is, "If I get it I get it".

Well and good if they will choose not to go to the hospital when they get sick, wasting limited medical resources. If this is not their choice, then they are not understanding the situation.

I Have Misplaced My Pants said...

At some point, a lot of people come to grips with the inevitability of death. Often it is people who have already lived a long life. And at some point, they have "been there, done that" and are "ready to go" as if they were waiting on someone before taking a trip.

In having that attitude, it also helps that you do not, or no longer, have any dependents that you need to take care of.


I have learned on this blog that if you do not get particularly exercised about old people dying then you are literally Satan.

Meade said...

Anyone here in favor of "building herd immunity" in the USA?

mockturtle said...

At present, we have no certainty of any long-term immunity conferred with this virus. Do we have 'herd immunity' to the common cold [a coronavirus]? To HIV? To norovirus?

Ken B said...

“ Anyone here in favor of "building herd immunity" in the USA?”

Yes and no. I certainly oppose the just let it rip approach to building herd immunity. But deliberately building it by stages over time might be a viable strategy. This involves a lot of testing, long term distancing for quite a lot of people, continuing the current distancing until we have enough tests and equipment, and buy in. It might also involve alternating periods of lockdown and let up. I saw an article on that last idea but cannot find it right now.
A lot depends on how well the new drugs work, and what progress is made on a vaccine.

Kyjo said...

@mockturtle, I know some colds are caused by coronaviruses, but aren’t most due to rhinoviruses?

Ken B said...

Kyjo
Yes. The “cold” is a grab bag term for lots of minor infections. The Corona variety is about 20%. But I think turtle is right that we lack herd immunity to those coronas.

Kyjo said...

@Ken B, thanks. Mockturtle’s point that we lack herd immunity to commonly occurring human coronaviruses is well-taken. If we cannot naturally develop herd immunity to SARS2, a vaccine is the only alternative. But if we can’t develop an effective vaccine?

Ken B said...

Kyjo
Well that's the scary question. Look at my comment from 12:24
And to make it worse, if we fail at getting a vaccine we won’t know we have failed for well over a year. I mean I guess you never know, you just know you haven’t yet.
That's when we have to start looking at herd immunity approaches more seriously.
But I think most researchers believe we will have vaccines. A lot is known about the virus.

Big Mike said...

At some point, a lot of people come to grips with the inevitability of death.

Well, that includes me. I'm already older than my mother when she died slowly from cancer, and almost to the age when my father died from a massive heart attack in his sleep. But the way COVID-19 kills, lungs slowly filling with fluid from pneumonia and intense pain, especially in the lower back, is not at all the way I want to go.

mockturtle said...

Kyojo asks: But if we can’t develop an effective vaccine?

Does the term SOL mean anything? ;-) But seriously, there is at least anecdotal evidence that the family of chloroquines can serve to prevent the virus. We'll have to wait until all the multilevel studies are in before we know. Does anyone here have a loved one on hydroxyquinolone [Plaquenil] for RA or other AI disorders who has contracted COVID-19? It would be interesting to know.

mockturtle said...

But the way COVID-19 kills, lungs slowly filling with fluid from pneumonia and intense pain, especially in the lower back, is not at all the way I want to go.

Me, either, Big Mike. Nor do I want to be intubated and on a ventilator for weeks.

Ken B said...

Mock
There is actually more than anecdotal evidence. It was found effective against SARS virus in studies done after the epidemic was over. There are in vitro studies suggesting it will have some effect. There are reasons why it came to attention quickly.
I am cautiously hopeful about it. That is one reason why we need to keep the lid on now, so that we can ramp up chloroquine if it works.

FullMoon said...

But seriously, there is at least anecdotal evidence that the family of chloroquines can serve to prevent the virus. We'll have to wait until all the multilevel studies are in before we know. Does anyone here have a loved one on hydroxyquinolone [Plaquenil] for RA or other AI disorders who has contracted COVID-19? It would be interesting to know.

Tucker Carlson interviewed front line New York doctor. At end, he asked if doctor was worried about becoming infected. Dr. said he has been taking Plaquenil and optomistic.

Interview ended, Carlson had never heard of Plaquenil. Had second interview with another Dr., asked him what is Plaquenil. Dr. said hydroxyquinolone, and common for doctors to take to prevent viral infection. So, apparently previously known among Drs as preventative.

stevew said...

mockturtle and Big Mike: thank you and good points about usually required services and manner of death from the virus. I'm pretty certain these facts are not known or understood by MIL and her pals. Should be and will be soon. Weekly call is Sunday morning.

FullMoon said...

thank you and good points about usually required services and manner of death from the virus. I'm pretty certain these facts are not known or understood by MIL and her pals. Should be and will be soon. Weekly call is Sunday morning.

Good luck in helping them understand. My experience is that many of these old geezers are either total believers in what they hear from the media and government, or so stubborn that they think it is up to them to make up their own minds and that sometimes government experts and media are not as smart as they seem.

Kind of like global warming denialists.

FullMoon said...

BTW, anyone have any links to entire families dying from virus? I have seen the one story but seems like should be plenty families dying from virus.

Local news is of people testing positive and everyone in contact being quarantined but not much follow up.

wildswan said...

"Herd Immunity"

It seems that infants and young children don't get serious cases of this virus. We have to find out if the moms would be willing to go for herd immunity basing on this fact. I believe that is the deal-breaker in reality. What do the mom commenters and lurkers think?

I also think that those with respiratory problems might emerge suddenly as endangered. At present they might be taking good care to social distance and be unnoticed and safe whereas if social distancing were gone then we might have lot of cases. Children with asthma, smokers. But also the 13 million TB cases in this country, 89% foreign born, and mostly living in southern California.

I myself think we have no choice but to go for herd immunity no matter what. If you think otherwise do this simple trick: spend your budget for this week, then spend no more money for the next three weeks and survive. How? as best you can like the poor.

FullMoon said...

...do this simple trick: spend your budget for this week, then spend no more money for the next three weeks and survive. How? as best you can like the poor.

Yep. Easy to shelter in place when you have no financial problems. Some people have never missed a payment or gone without and cannot even imagine what it is like to worry about food and rent. Nobody commenting here, but some other people.

Tomcc said...

RE: treatments for Covid-19, this twitter feed, https://twitter.com/BioBreakout, (reference provided by another Althouse commenter a few days ago) has some interesting elements. Plasma transfusion therapy is currently being tried in NY. He (Dr. Grigis) refers to a preliminary paper with good results. That's seems like good news. The other relevant fact is that it was done in China.

mockturtle said...

FM, too many people live on thin or no margins. Along with other things, we might learn from this experience. Perhaps putting money aside for a crisis might regain popularity. People nowadays are too quick to spend, too slow to save, said the frugal old lady. [And yes, I recognize that we don't get shit for interest now but it's still a nest egg.]

Ken B said...

Tomcc
Plasma therapy won Behring the Nobel prize in 1901. For diphtheria.

Ken B said...

Mockturtle
Yes. We have collectively not taken risks and preparedness nearly seriously enough. I know that after SARS I bought masks. Cost ten bucks for a box or some such. But I have moved twice since then and there is no sign of them. Foolish. Some preparation is cheap and easy.

After this everyone should read Nassim Taleb.

We had disaster prep even not so long ago. Cuomo blew off New York states pandemic prep 5 years ago. Ahnuld had plans in California. Jerry Brown blew them off.

Ken B said...

lessons from the Spanish Flu lockdowns https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2020/03/pandemics-depress-the-economy-public-health-interventions-do-not-evidence-from-the-1918-flu.html

Sick people aren’t productive. A few covid is more severe than flu. It puts a significant number in hospital for weeks.

stevew said...

Seriously, if you can't pay the rent and the utilities and still have enough to feed and water yourself don't pay those other bills. You really have no other choice. No one is going to throw you out or shut you off at this point. Who wants that publicity?

This is not advice, I'm not qualified to give such advice, it is simply my opinion.

bagoh20 said...

Maybe blow something up? Take that anyway you want?

bagoh20 said...

If we are going to stop paying our bills, why would we rip off people making an honest living when we can just stop paying taxes and fees. Shouldn't the Congress give up it's pay right now? It's "the crisis of our lifetimes!"

bagoh20 said...

Since all this sheltering is reducing pollution big time, shouldn't we reallocate EPA expenses to health care for a while. They already have the hazmat suits.