Althouse: At the Isolation Café...

March 22, 2020

At the Isolation Café...

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... we can get through this together.

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275 comments:

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narciso said...: If there is uncertainty, they wont want to commit any significant expenditures.; 3/23/20, 12:38 AM
Crazy World said...: I must say it’s nice to see a nice Inga.
Blessings all, my little Island is requiring all incoming flights 14 days quarantine.
Nancy is a piece of shit, Aloha; 3/23/20, 12:39 AM
Yancey Ward said...: Here are the facts you need to know and understand. It isn't the case that it is largely New York and no one else. The only reason New York has 17,000 confirmed cases and California has only 1800 is this- New York has run 10x as many tests. California has run and gotten the results of 13,000 tests as of Saturday. That's it- 13,000 tests, and, at that time they had exactly 1395 cases- that same old roughly 10% rate for people with flu-like symptoms.

I can't stress this enough- all of the testing data from everywhere in the US shows this same rough percentage of positives from the same pool of testees- those with flu-like symptoms. This is concrete proof that the disease isn't spreading more rapidly in New York than elsewhere- it is just the New Yorkers have panicked more and are getting tested more in that panic, and in that panic, they have overrun the hospitals. New York will probably test 100,000 people today (Monday), and see roughly 10,000 new cases (up 1100 already 90 mins into the day). This will eventually happen everywhere in the US- people will panic more, and then you will see every state testing madly and finding the rapid increase in new cases. It is simply a result of uncovering that small portion of the people infected- my estimate is at least 1,000,000 right now, and probably closer to 2,000,000. You won't stop it. For me, the good news is that the ratio hasn't really changed- this tells me that the R0 is already 1 or less. At some point in the next 2-3 weeks, if testing can keep increasing at this rate, we should finally start finding fewer new cases- you might even start seeing that in New York which is way ahead of the rest of the country in tests run.

But, again, I emphasize that the it isn't that New York has more infected, it is that they have tested 10 times as many people as any other state, but with the same rough percentage of positives.

This is, to me, good news, though the panic is a problem without a good solution. I think we will build a decent herd immunity along with better hygenic practices- the lockdowns won't stop this now, nor even slow it much- it is far too wide spread- and this applies to Europe as well. China and some of the other Asian countries that appear to have stopped this spread will probably get much more significant second waves next Winter. This is the price of flattening that curve so dramatically, if that is what China really did (I don't trust their data, though).

By the way, in a tweet last night, Trump basically recognized the problem with lockdowns- he knows they can't go past the 2nd or 3rd week of April. A decision will have to be made at that point- lock down tightly (futile in my opinion) and crash the economy by 75%, or reopen everything and make do as best we can going forward. He is realist, unlike far too many people in government.; 3/23/20, 12:44 AM
walter said...: wildswan
"So the first step was: There should be a plan. (I kid you not, remember this is a government document written by a committee.)"
Thank you for that LOL.
Trump has spoken repeatedly, though not specifically, about the shiite inherited.
I sure hope what you point out was recognized.
Gotta wonder how many well paid bureaucrats settled into comfy retirements after contributing that.; 3/23/20, 12:44 AM
Birkel said...: Of course Trump recognizes the problem. Anybody with any business sense can see the cascade of failures that the current lockdown would cause. And that outcome is much worse than most people are willing to recognize.

The trade-offs are overly expensive.

The WuFlu cannot be allowed to crash the US economy.

When the US sneezes the ROW gets a cold. If the US economy contracts 25%, the ROW will fail. Fail. Their economies will crash and fail.; 3/23/20, 12:50 AM
Kyzer SoSay said...: In six months, we're all gonna look back on the disastrous results of shuttering the economy, and how relatively benign this virus is compared to other seasonal disease, and rue the day we let media-driven hysteria control our lives and our thoughts.

We're killing our economy for nothing.; 3/23/20, 12:56 AM
walter said...: Birkel,
I couldn't care less about the Olsen twins' plight.
Please clarify.; 3/23/20, 1:09 AM
narciso said...: We know what the 2001 hickup led to in atgentina, their default on their currency; 3/23/20, 1:09 AM
narciso said...: I think thats beth cameron who was warbling like michigan j frog. She was part of a wargame in 2016 or something.; 3/23/20, 1:13 AM
Lewis Wetzel said...: In 1992, the Hugo award winning novel _Doomsday Book_, by Connie Willis, was published. It's a good book. The time is the early 21st century. A grad student is sent back in time to the 1450s to study history. Mistakes are made, the grad student ends up in the 1350s instead of the 1450s, at the beginning of a Black Plague outbreak. A secondary plot takes place in the "present" (the imagined 2020s), where a plague is breaking out because archaeologists have excavated a cemetery with 14th century plague victims.
The plague in the "present" makes it difficult to address the problem of the time-traveling grad student trying to figure out what's happening in the 14th century. She doesn't understand, until late in the book, that she has been sent back to a time a hundred years before the year that she expected.
_Doomsday Book_ is very well written. There subtleties to the plot that are not easily summarized.
But if you read it today, what strikes you is that in Willis's imagined 2020, there are no cell phones. The plot is driven by people trying (and failing) to communicate with other people by POTS (Plain Old Telephone Service). There are not only no cell phones in Wiliis's 2020, there is nothing like the internet. People talk by POTS because that is all there is.
The lesson is that we can't know the future. Even people who are very gifted, and very interested in the future get it wrong. Bigly.; 3/23/20, 1:15 AM
Kyzer SoSay said...: I'll be honest, a miscalculation like that would take me right out of the book. In 1992, cell phones and car phones were already becoming common enough that most people knew who had one, or whose parents had one, or had seen one in a TV show. Predicting their widespread adoption by virtue of their sheer utility should have been easy. Same with the Internet. Hell, by that time answering machines were already widespread, as was call waiting - for a lot of folks, truly missing an "important" call was becoming a thing of the past. It's a shame because the general idea sounds really interesting, but if what you say is correct that the plot is "driven" by missed calls and busy signals, well, I'll de-select myself from that readership pool.; 3/23/20, 1:54 AM
Kyzer SoSay said...: " . . . most people knew SOMEONE who had one, or whose parents . . ."; 3/23/20, 1:55 AM
walter said...: Sounds like the book is more about the past..; 3/23/20, 2:01 AM
walter said...: Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
·
3h
WE CANNOT LET THE CURE BE WORSE THAN THE PROBLEM ITSELF. AT THE END OF THE 15 DAY PERIOD, WE WILL MAKE A DECISION AS TO WHICH WAY WE WANT TO GO!; 3/23/20, 2:09 AM
walter said...: THIS should GET Gilbar's ATTENTION!; 3/23/20, 2:11 AM
Clark said...: I just started reading Doomsday Book last night. A friend gave it to me for Christmas.; 3/23/20, 2:14 AM
Lewis Wetzel said...: Kyzer SoSay said...

I'll be honest, a miscalculation like that would take me right out of the book. In 1992, cell phones and car phones were already becoming common enough that most people knew who had one, or whose parents had one, or had seen one in a TV show.
. . .
The cell phone I remember seeing on a TV show from those days (Newhart, I think) was the size of a suitcase & was not very useful. No towers outside of big cities. Few carriers. Pagers were the status symbol in the 80s-90s. You'd get a beep from the pager, and then go to a regular telephone & call the number that paged you.
It's a commonplace observation that sci-fi stories of the 1950s-1980s idea of the 21st century was rockets and flying cars, and what we have is the internet and cellphones. See _Bladerunner_ (1982) for an example.
_Doomsday Book_ is a very good bit of writing. The stories' time lines are 600 years apart apart, and Willis weaves them together without a seam. Remarkable work, it deserves the praise it has received.; 3/23/20, 3:31 AM
Bruce Hayden said...: “A $1 trillion package still likely to come out of Congress -- also insane. It cannot "work" without work: what we need is young, healthy people working and going to school, helping the old by not having the infrastructure of life itself collapse”

It’s well over $1T now, maybe $1.8T, and Pelosi is trying to grab control. She is demanding payoff of student debts because colleges are a big Dem constituency and it will get Bernie Bros to the polls in November. Moreover she is demanding control over which companies are saved, with subsidies, and which aren’t. This is the biggest pot of loot the Dems have seen in a decade, and they are determined to control it, as they did in 2009, making their friends filthy rich, and pushing friends of Republicans out of business (Remember how they determined which auto dealers survived and which didn’t, as well as which banks?). She has enough control over her caucus to make this brazen power and esp money grab work in her house.

This could completely sink the Republicans in November. Giving Pelosi and the Dems almost $2T is slush funds, roughly 2 1/2 times the size of her last Porkulus stimulus bill will likely depress Republican turnout. Knock off three Republican Senators (at a minimum, the three I know have the closest ties: Daines from MT (Schumer recruited popular Gov Bullock), McSally from AZ (opponent has >$20m war chest from out of state sources), and Gardner from CO), then slide in Cuomo at the convention, and maybe beat Trump. At a minimum, Trump without the Senate would be greatly neutered, and I think likely to tack left to get anything done. Scary stuff.; 3/23/20, 4:13 AM
Bruce Hayden said...: “ The WuFlu cannot be allowed to crash the US economy”

Not at the cost of giving Pelosi that sort of a win. We don’t need the added drag of the extra almost $1T that she is demanding of payoffs to all of the Dem constituencies, and the billions that they will be able to shave off for themselves, to be used later to further entrench themselves in power. The 2009 Porkulus stimulus did more harm than good, at a critical time, being one of the major factors that turned what would have normally be a couple year trough into the eight year Obama Recession. What she is pushing is 2 1/2 times as large this time, and likely to do even more damage.; 3/23/20, 4:27 AM
rhhardin said...: Sitting up late into the night, reading Camus in the old wingback chair I moved into my office

Your velvet words of purple tint,
In France they would be famous,
L:ke all that belly button lint
From Kierkegaard and Camus.

1980; 3/23/20, 4:36 AM
exhelodrvr1 said...: Anyone with a brain can see that the administration is taking pretty much all the right steps. If Biden wants to show off his "Presidential bona fides" he should be publicly very supportive of Pres. Trump. Ironically, that would actually be good for both the nation and for his own campaign.

Also, very disappointed that Carter, Clinton, Bush, and Obama haven't come out with those types of supportive statements. (If they have, I haven't seen them, so please disregard that statement.); 3/23/20, 4:51 AM
stevew said...: Yancey: if the goal was to determine the spread of the infection would testing a large random sample (regardless of symptoms) be the way to do it?

mockturtle: I'm not whining about the situation and the changes required by the lockdown. I don't like them, think they are misguided, but am adjusting (adjusted) quite well. What I'm complaining about is the insistence by some that the situation is a good thing, allowing us time for gentle and measured self-reflection, an embrace of social distancing and being alone, an opportunity to explore new things and activities. The denial of the real burden this is placing on many people, particularly young families and poorer workers is what I'm bothered by.; 3/23/20, 5:09 AM
Darrell said...: The other day, Domino's came by and brought a pizza.
I just had to order and pay.; 3/23/20, 5:09 AM
rhhardin said...: Amazon "It was handed directly to a resident" now means on the other side of the storm door, and it applies to barking dogs as well.; 3/23/20, 5:23 AM
Darrell said...: Amazon better not hand my package to a barking dog.; 3/23/20, 5:53 AM
Jaq said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; 3/23/20, 5:54 AM
Jaq said...: My favorite bit of inability to imagine the future is in The Moon is a Harsh Mistress, when they guy is on the moon and goes outside the habitation, and can only go as far as the phone cord will let him..; 3/23/20, 5:57 AM
Jaq said...: People who are forced to suffer through this are gonna resent the people who can buy their way out of it. I don’t think there is going to be any changing that. This whole “flatten the curve” approach, which makes perfect sense, also means, “you go first people who have to work."; 3/23/20, 6:06 AM
Jaq said...: And due to quarantine, the Democrats now control both houses of the legislature.; 3/23/20, 6:10 AM
Kevin said...: Althouse: ... we can get through this together.

Pelosi: Hold my beer.; 3/23/20, 6:23 AM
Temujin said...: Aunty said: And due to quarantine, the Democrats now control both houses of the legislature.

And they're showing their colors, clear and true. They always do. They'll call it what they want: protecting the worker, protecting the children, what have you. But it's always the same for the PowerHungry Dems. They are protecting their power, re-establishing a beach head in both houses, and making sure that no crisis goes to waste.

In the end, government reach will be the victor, individual liberty the loser as the marker gets pushed toward the more statist end.; 3/23/20, 6:25 AM
mockturtle said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; 3/23/20, 6:38 AM
mockturtle said...: So the first step was: There should be a plan. (I kid you not, remember this is a government document written by a committee.)

Wildswan, it's only 4:30 AM here but this made me laugh. ;-D

And it made me doubly thankful that Trump is President.; 3/23/20, 6:39 AM
Phil Beck said...: Watching videos of students partying during this crisis in defiance of social distancing rules, I have a suggestion to solve the student loan problem: stop making them.; 3/23/20, 6:46 AM
mockturtle said...: Lewis Wetzel sez: Do I want a government check for a grand? Sure. Do I need that check more than some young family that is hit hard by this thing? Nope. Give it to them.

Agree. Surely we retirees won't be getting a check. Will we? Perhaps we should refuse them. If the measure ever passes. People need to hold these Dems accountable. They will pay in spades in November for this craven act of defiance.; 3/23/20, 6:49 AM
mockturtle said...: Stevew explains: What I'm complaining about is the insistence by some that the situation is a good thing, allowing us time for gentle and measured self-reflection, an embrace of social distancing and being alone, an opportunity to explore new things and activities.

OK, I'm with you there, steve. I guess what bothers me is that, after only one week of this shutdown, people are assuming the worst. Trump and his team wanted 15 days, then an evaluation of the results. If your individual governor is playing generalissimo with these suggestions [not even orders!] then blame him/her and the other Democrats.; 3/23/20, 7:05 AM
stevew said...: Ha, we agree on that. My governor (MA) has been pretty careful not to overreact - so far. We are up to 5 deaths in the state now, more than double the number on Saturday, will see how that changes things.; 3/23/20, 7:14 AM
Smerdyakov said...: Marcello Natalie, an Italian doctor, died of the Coronavirus a few days ago. He did not use gloves when he treated patients. There was a shortage of gloves.

Somehow reminded me Jean Tarrou in Camus' The Plague.

I've always wondered if Tarrou wanted to die.; 3/23/20, 7:17 AM
Sebastian said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; 3/23/20, 7:28 AM
Sebastian said...: WSJ this morning: "apparently healthy" people spread the virus. Like, you remember, Rudy Gobert. What happened to him? Anything?

In fact, has the Wuhan Virus done anything serious to more than, say, a dozen healthy young men under 30 worldwide?

The WSJ of course aids the panic with OMG pseudo-epidemiology: it's spreading fast! people without symptoms can spread!

Alternative lesson #1: the virus is harmless to healthy young men. They stay, would you believe, "apparently healthy."

Alternative lesson #2: It's a good thing that Rudy got the virus. That's what you want! That's what you need! If anybody, it should be the Rudys. Oh, and by the way, how are Donovan Mitchell and Kevin Durant and --? Anything happen to them? No?

Alternative lesson #3: It's crazy to shut down young men's games. Let them play. Let old and sick people stay away. It's cruel to impose maximum costs on people at minimal risk. It's completely irrational to shut down businesses that pose no significant risk to anybody. Provided, of course, that we enforce an actual quarantine on the people actually at risk.; 3/23/20, 7:29 AM
Big Mike said...: @Kyzer SoSay, your comment about the importance of the Internet being predictable is simply wrong. In that year I was asked to be part of the annual technology forecast, so I was part of a team of ten of the top engineers and scientific researchers in a company known for its ability to provide cutting-edge-while-staying-back-from-bleeding-edge technology solutions for the federal government.

In 1992 we predicted that the Internet “might” be important “someday.” Okay, part of this prediction was because the report was written by a committee. But keep in mind that Tim Berners-Lee had only invented the WorldWideWeb less than two years before, and Mosaic was still another year in the future, so the natural caution of a committee only partly explains why we wrote what we did.

We got some things right in that report. Object-oriented database engines did not displace the relational model. Moore’s Law would continue to operate until the end of the century (then only eight years off). We got other things right, but we sure blew the future of the Internet.

I found a copy of that report while boxing up my bookshelf for an office move a couple years later. I kept it handy until the day I retired as a hedge against hubris.; 3/23/20, 7:32 AM
mockturtle said...: This morning the market is rallying--at least early--based on some decisions by the Fed. But there is also discussion on Maria Bartiromo about the notion of a finite shutdown, perhaps for 30 days, to kill the virus, with a definite termination date that business and markets can rely on. And that coupled with the pending legislation that can ease financial burdens in the interim. Discuss?; 3/23/20, 7:35 AM
grackle said...: We're all in this together platitudes are just patronizing. A sacrifice is being demanded, part of which is an insistence on agreeing it isn't a sacrifice.

Huh? Someone insisted that sheltering in place/self-quarantining/staying home from work with no pay isn’t bothersome? Not in this comment section so far. The above statement is fantasy.

And why does the cliché “we're all in this together” – which by the way is also perfectly true as a trope because no one is immune to the Wuhan virus – bother this commentor so much? Interesting, but not in a good way.

We're not together, we're apart. No matter how you try to spin it.

The comment takes a fucking metaphorical cliche and pretends he thought it was literal. Or maybe he actually believed it was literal, which doesn’t speak well for his brain-power.

Next commentor: … it prevents herd immunity from building up …

Yeah. The Brits took the “herd immunity” route for a few days until the British leaders belatedly realized that such a strategy would both wreck their economy AND result in millions of deaths which would also result in the end of their idiotic political careers. Yet with the Trump recommendations in place, if followed by most of our populace, herd immunity WILL occur – just not as fast as this commentor so fervently desires.

A commentor writing about his father and his father’s elderly friends:

What the heck, they might wake up dead tomorrow; they aren't worried about the virus or much of anything else. Gotta go sometime, he says, and I'm pretty close anyhow.

If true – and that’s a BIG if in my mind – his father’s statement really only indicates a certain admirable bravado that no caring son should take seriously. Readers, do we really believe that the commentor’s aged father WANTS to die? That the father is really so blasé about his own death?

11 million dead? Here, or worldwide? How does that happen without herd immunity developing …

Does the commentor not know that the steps outlined by the Trump team will certainly result in herd immunity? I guess it is up me to explain. The Trump team’s strategy is to develop herd immunity in stages. If allowed to happen all at once herd immunity results in catastrophic economic destruction and millions of more deaths than would be necessary.

Readers, the Wuhan virus is not the flu. To allow this virus to rush through a population without taking steps to slow it down totally ruins economies and kills more citizens than is necessary. Most nations realize this simple fact and are doing what they can to delay the spread. There will be mistakes because mistakes are inevitable in any new situation.

Speaking of mistakes, I made an assumption that turned out to be false. I assumed I could sterilize my mail in my microwave. A couple of days later I decided to Google it and found out otherwise. I offer this slightly embarrassing tidbit in case anyone else has had this same bright idea.; 3/23/20, 7:39 AM
Churchy LaFemme: said...: My favorite bit of inability to imagine the future is in The Moon is a Harsh Mistress, when they guy is on the moon and goes outside the habitation, and can only go as far as the phone cord will let him..

That's interesting especially since the same author invented the cell-phone in Space Cadet in 1948 (almost 20 years prior to Mistress..); 3/23/20, 7:40 AM
narciso said...: They aregoing by the imperial college atudy, whose conclusions are not based om firm data.; 3/23/20, 7:45 AM
Sebastian said...: "30 days, to kill the virus" -- well, three problems.

1. It's unlikely you'll kill it. You need to build up immunity. Even on their own terms, shutdowns are counterproductive. Caution, yes: you want to build up immunity gradually, though as fast as possible among young people at minimal risk. For the sake of everyone's health, kids should be in school. Teachers over 50 can opt out. College grads with no jobs can step in.

2. 30 days of the most effective virus killing would require very strict enforcement. National news in a foreign country that shall not be named: granny doesn't want to be shut in! I'm healthy! I wanna go out! They shouldn't treat us all like we are sick and at risk! It's not fair! Kids mad, authorities nowhere to be seen. No police officer threatening granny with -- well, what? Ergo: no lockdown.

3. Presumably, "killing" it in the U.S. would also require continued isolation from the rest of the world, as long as the virus is "alive" somewhere. How can we tell? How long? At what cost?

Even without the economic implosion involved, criticized by yours truly and a few others ad nauseam, the current and imagined approach is nuts.; 3/23/20, 7:47 AM
Marc in Eugene said...: England and Wales are "pausing" trials by jury-- is that happening here, too?

After more than 40 years as a registered voter, I've finally been summoned for jury duty on St George's Day-- well, it depends whether they call my number, 245, on the eve etc etc. Still. I'll be truly peeved if this plague nonsense upsets my chances at serving.

And I'm forced to wonder how many summons are issued i.e. what my chances are of actually being impanelled? Twelve jurors selected out of... 100, 200 notified? More than that?; 3/23/20, 7:50 AM
MayBee said...: It's ok to say that it sucks. You can say something sucks, and be frustrated that from where you're sitting it's so unnecessary, and also put on your big girl pants and deal with it.

Amen, Pants.

I think all this insistence that people must be happy to help is kind of gross. I'm a really positive person. I'm a helper in life. Do I have to be happy with every decision made by the government/my governor in this situatation? No. Am I going to shame people for asking questions? No.
America was built on questioning authority. Maybe one of theses questioners will save us from a downward spiral.

You know who aren't supposed to ask questions and are supposed to be happy to help the collective? The Chinese.; 3/23/20, 7:53 AM
Curious George said...: Together? For millions it's a crock of shit. It's already too late for many many businesses. They have been shut down completely, or almost completely. The revenue loss will shut them for good. They will not be re-opening. I know some of these folks, and they know many more. While total shutdowns happened a week or so ago, business slowdown happened weeks before that.

Even with some financial assistance. It won't be enough. The "community" rallying to support them when this is over will fall way short. There are way too many businesses to support, and the people won't have the money to do it anyway. And these businesses have employees, and they are out of work.

The build up of businesses that do survive will be slow. Most don't have the cash to hire in advance, and can't or won't have the ability to take on debt.

"Stevew explains: What I'm complaining about is the insistence by some that the situation is a good thing, allowing us time for gentle and measured self-reflection, an embrace of social distancing and being alone, an opportunity to explore new things and activities."

Exactly. Years from know this will all work it's way out. But at least two young people took a liking for opera. And 8 more 90 year olds live another day or two.; 3/23/20, 7:56 AM
Jersey Fled said...: Damn. How many times do I have to tell you guys this.

Balance of Terror was riffed from The Enemy Below, not Run Silent Run Deep.

Sheesh.; 3/23/20, 7:56 AM
Sebastian said...: At least the President understands:

"WE CANNOT LET THE CURE BE WORSE THAN THE PROBLEM ITSELF. AT THE END OF THE 15 DAY PERIOD, WE WILL MAKE A DECISION AS TO WHICH WAY WE WANT TO GO!"

From Powerline, a reminder of a NYT piece mentioned here before:

"Given our understanding of the population at greatest risk of death, a more targeted approach is in sight and is called for. Dr. David Katz is the founding director of the Yale-Griffin Prevention Research Center. He made the case for the targeted approach in the pages of the New York Times, no less: “Is Our Fight Against Coronavirus Worse Than the Disease?” Subhead: “There may be more targeted ways to beat the pandemic.” This is the point: “The rush to impose sweeping restrictions on public and commercial life across the entire economy should be more carefully evaluated.”"

You don't say, Dr. Katz. Anyway, good to have voices for rationality emerging. Here's hoping we can yet squelch the panic.; 3/23/20, 8:00 AM
Browndog said...: "Stevew explains: What I'm complaining about is the insistence by some that the situation is a good thing, allowing us time for gentle and measured self-reflection, an embrace of social distancing and being alone, an opportunity to explore new things and activities."

Out: Funemployment

In: Funpandemic; 3/23/20, 8:00 AM
mockturtle said...: Just an aside: Steve Mnuchin is hot. I only just realized it. ;-); 3/23/20, 8:02 AM
Browndog said...: The shift from terror over corona virus to terror economic collapse has already occurred, and rightfully so-

Some just haven't realized it yet.; 3/23/20, 8:04 AM
Mrs. X said...: Re businesses failing: I’m in NYC and my veterinarian just laid off 80% of his staff. We have an old, sick dog who requires much care and our vet had a thriving practice until a week ago. The vet will probably go out of business; maybe we can scramble to find another one, but since New York is a ghost town, other vets are likely in similar situations. Veterinarians are probably considered essential services (I haven’t checked the list) but being essential doesn’t mean you can afford to stay in business.; 3/23/20, 8:11 AM
Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...: mockturtle said...
Just an aside: Steve Mnuchin is hot. I only just realized it. ;-)

Cabin fever claims an early victim.; 3/23/20, 8:12 AM
narciso said...: the latest twist, how the quarantining took at least two senators off the board, is right out of mccarry's shelly's heart,; 3/23/20, 8:14 AM
mockturtle said...: Cabin fever claims an early victim.

;-D; 3/23/20, 8:15 AM
AllenS said...: Don't worry about students partying, because their immune systems will kick in, and they'll be alright. None of them will die.

What we have here, folks, is a large case of the Beta Flu Panic.; 3/23/20, 8:18 AM
Marc in Eugene said...: A draft reviewed by Willamette Week orders residents to stay in their homes whenever possible and bans nonessential gatherings, according to the newspaper. The draft order allows people to go outside to run or hike, as long as they can stay six feet away from others. It would close many businesses — including hair salons, gyms, senior centers and theaters.... It wouldn’t shutter offices, however, but it would require employers to let their workers telecommute as much as possible.

So Governor Brown will cave and require us to stay at home, at the penalty of a misdemeanor, except for a list of reasons. While I'm not personally exercised about this-- except for the interdict of public worship etc etc-- or, at least, am not until I've not had an income for X number of weeks, at some point it'll become difficult to embrace 'social isolation' as an effective palliative to the ravages of the plague based on the opinions and nonsense of politicians and 'experts'.; 3/23/20, 8:20 AM
Browndog said...: Blogger Mrs. X said...

Re businesses failing: I’m in NYC and my veterinarian just laid off 80% of his staff.

I was reading about the upcoming panic over veterinarian services last week. Tons of issues the "relax" crowd hasn't thought about.

Luckily our current set of dogs are relatively young and healthy. A few years ago was a different story, and my heart breaks for what some pet owners are about to experience.; 3/23/20, 8:29 AM
Marc in Eugene said...: The Daily Mail map already has Oregon listed as a 'stay at home order' state.

There'll be not a few dissertations written about how the media reported/manipulated/managed this plague response, presuming that there is an 'after'.; 3/23/20, 8:29 AM
Jersey Fled said...: Economics 101

Money represents the value of goods that either are produced or have been produced. That's why there are so many dollars in this world and relatively few Haitian Gourdes. The U.S. produces more that Haiti, both on an absolute basis (because there are more of us) but also in a per capita basis because the average American produces more than the average Haitian (per capita GDP of $54,541 vs $1659 in Haiti).

We need "money" (i.e. production) to provide the things we need to fight this virus and to sustain human life. We do not produce things when people sit at home doing nothing. That's why these blanket business closures are unsustainable. We need food, medicine, energy, transportation services, and an almost endless list of other things to both sustain us and get us through this crisis.

You can't just borrow money to pay for this. You need to create "money" in the form of new production.

People need to get back to work. Soon. We need a plan to do this. There are some characteristics of this disease that suggest some solutions.

Most people who get the disease get a very mild case and get over it quickly and easily. Younger people in particular. The most heavily impacted areas are those with high population density. Promising methods of treatment are being discovered. Switch from a strategy of prevention to a strategy of fast and available treatment. And so on.

If you want to see a pandemic of truly terrible proportions, lock everyone in their homes and wait for a vaccine.; 3/23/20, 8:32 AM
AllenS said...: I agree totally, Jersey Fled, and couldn't have explained it better.; 3/23/20, 8:39 AM
grackle said...: It's unlikely you'll kill it. You need to build up immunity.

So far so good …

… shutdowns are counterproductive.

Here we go … into the wild blue yonder, but nowhere else, unless incoherence is the goal.

Caution, yes: you want to build up immunity gradually, though as fast as possible among young people at minimal risk.

But readers, this is exactly what the Trump team is trying to do. My God, the blindness that is present in this comment!

For the sake of everyone's health, kids should be in school.

Nope. Having the kids out of school is extremely inconvenient but it is way better than having them run around infecting everyone.

30 days of the most effective virus killing would require very strict enforcement.

Readers, here we must try our best to tease out a meaning in this muddled sentence. The Wuhan virus never dies in the sense that it disappears from an infected population. If the proper steps are taken it gradually immunizes the population by making them sick to a lesser or greater degree, depending on many variables such as each individual’s health, age, degree of infection, etc. “Strict enforcement,” aside from isolated cases of authoritative stupidity from local gendarmes will not happen – in my opinion. But all bets are off if widespread rioting occurs.

They shouldn't treat us all like we are sick and at risk! It's not fair! Kids mad, authorities nowhere to be seen.

Hey, we can’t have kids getting mad! They might stamp their feet and pout and that’s not good, not good at all …

… granny doesn't want to be shut in! I'm healthy! … No police officer threatening granny with -- well, what? Ergo: no lockdown.

Unless granny is senile granny is going to realize that getting infected is extremely risky for her well-being. If she doesn’t … well … goodbye granny, been nice to know ya.

Presumably, "killing" it in the U.S. would also require continued isolation from the rest of the world, as long as the virus is "alive" somewhere. How can we tell? How long? At what cost?

Does the commentor not know that if populaces become immune(hopefully in gradual stages) that travel between borders can resume? Does he think that when the Wuhan virus runs its course that no one will be able to cross borders again – ever? Good Lord.

Even without the economic implosion involved, criticized by yours truly and a few others ad nauseam, the current and imagined approach is nuts.

Readers, what’s nuts is to listen even a little bit to what this rascal has to say.; 3/23/20, 8:44 AM
rhhardin said...: SFInternational say my USB blu-ray player has taken off on a flight from Hong Kong to New York, after bouncing around in customs and various Chinese waypoints for a couple of weeks. Commerce!; 3/23/20, 8:47 AM
rhhardin said...: Money is whatever is accepted in payment of taxes.; 3/23/20, 8:50 AM
Anthony said...: I took chloroquine to Egypt on my first trip in 1988. Supposed to be a malaria-prone country. I quit taking it after 2 weeks cuz it messed with my guts. Plus I learned there hadn't been a case of malaria in Egypt in 30 years, State Dept. maps notwithstanding.

I much prefer my quinine delivered with a dash of Rose's Lime Juice and gin, thankyouverymuch.; 3/23/20, 8:54 AM
grackle said...: Exactly. Years from know this will all work it's way out. But at least two young people took a liking for opera. And 8 more 90 year olds live another day or two.

Jesus H Christ. Cold-blooded, heartless and uncaring are few adjectives that come to mind. Readers, we are not supposed to care about “90 year olds.” What about 80 year olds, dude? 70 year olds? 60 year olds with underlying health problems? What about a teenager with asthma? And all the people with other illnesses and injuries that will not have access to health providers because the fucking hospital beds are occupied? Give us your pearls of wisdom, man. Where do you draw the line?; 3/23/20, 9:01 AM
Maillard Reactionary said...: That concrete thing in the first picture looks like a gun emplacement. Did the Injuns plan on retaking Madison at some point?; 3/23/20, 9:09 AM
Yancey Ward said...: "Yancey: if the goal was to determine the spread of the infection would testing a large random sample (regardless of symptoms) be the way to do it?"

Yes and no. Using a test for the virus would not be as meaningful at this point as it might have been a month ago- an anti-body test would be more informative as it would give us insight into how widely the virus had penetrated from the beginning, whatever that beginning date actually is.; 3/23/20, 9:52 AM
Bruce Hayden said...: The sampling problem is interesting. My thoughts right now are that to be really useful, you would have to test an awful lot of people, and since we are still short on test kits, it is better used for people showing some symptoms.

The place where I disagree with Yancey, to some extent, that NYC is showing so many cases because it is testing so aggressively, is that it is one of the places in this country where most airborne diseases are going to spread more quickly. Probably much more quickly. It all revolves around population density and how much walking (and bicycling, riding mopeds, etc in places like Wuhan). Compare NYC to much of the country, geographically. For the most part, people have to interact there with other people to get around. Subways, cabs, walking, all are far more likely to spread the virus, than driving your own car. Walking down the street where we live half the year in NW MT, you are very unlikely to be infected, since you are unlikely to be close enough to anyone who might be infected - but you probably will drive instead. Contrast that to the typical situation walking down the street in Manhattan, which you mostly need to do to get anywhere there, and you are likely to be within feet of hundreds of potential carriers, unless you take a cab or limo everywhere, and even then, you are likely to encounter more people within infection range than most of us normally do.

Later on, we may see a more universal infection rate. But so far, I haven’t seen much evidence that the infections that we are seeing weren’t, somehow, sourced through a relatively small numbers of contacts, directly, but mostly indirectly, with Wuhan, China. I have seen little evidence that the spread of the virus has been homogeneous across the country, but rather can usually still be sourced through a small numbers of people starting infection trees that radiate outwards. I will suggest that it is worse in dense urban areas, because the infection trees are much denser, having many more limbs and branches. And NYC is likely the worst, because much more walking is required to get around than almost anywhere else (and the crowds on the streets are denser).

It will be interesting to see which one of us is correct.

Back to my point, because of all the compounding factors, I expect that it will take a fairly large sample to give us any sort of confidence in the spread of this disease through sampling. And a fair amount of work to control for the known compounding factors, such as population density, latitude (or currently expected temperatures), etc.; 3/23/20, 11:07 AM
daskol said...: Population density, but also global connectedness is a huge factor. Euros, Asians coming and going as we also come and go from their shores at a higher rate than anywhere else in the world. The benefits and fragilities of globalization are highest here. That's why it's probably more a coastal phenomenon, and that's where the 10% rate probably holds, or NYC's even higher 10-15%.; 3/23/20, 1:22 PM
Bruce Hayden said...: I hadn’t considered global connectedness, but that makes perfect sense.

I still contend that the epidemic is likely to be worse in NYC, than almost anywhere else in this country - for the reasons I listed above, as well this added one. Asian connectedness though may be even higher in Seattle and the Bay Area (including SFO). I think that is very likely why the first big outbreaks were there. Around here in PHX, we occasionally run into people who had been in Mexico this year, but much less so someone from China. And, far, far, more unlikely in the town in MT where we spend the other half of the year.; 3/23/20, 1:50 PM
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