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March 22, 2020
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275 comments:
1 – 200 of 275 Newer› Newest»Together apart.
Many good things have been happening here. The neighborhood website has people volunteering to run errands for shut-ins, picking up groceries, taking them to appointments. Support for local businesses, including take-out orders from the restaurants (we had some). At the local Costco, lines outside are happy and orderly, and inside the store everyone waits their turn for the stuff we all want. Be good, Americans, be helpful and optimistic. It's what we do best.
So I was going to say, it's a good thing that Stiles, that anti-Vulcan bigot, wasn't on the ship. Otherwise he would have said, "Spock? You're dad looks an awful lot like a certain Romulan."
No one else seemed to notice, though.
Was on a family zoom video chat -- the family being stretched across the four corners of the country.
Sigh. They repeated all the lines from the CNN and MS-NBC crowd.
And, thanks Rachel Maddow, but even when they mentioned how the government was sending out shipments of masks and other protective gear, they didn't believe it.
From balance of terror, which riffed on run silent run deep.
That a bzzzz, narcisco. Strike one.
Stiles was NOT on the ship. And it was NOT the Romulan commander, just that Spock's dad looked like him.
An excellent presentation on the cellular chemistry of why Chloroquine may work against COVID19. It was kind of obvious why an antiviral like Remdesivir might work. It's an antiviral, natch! But, why an antimalarial like Chloroquine? That's a puzzler.
If you're not in the mood to sit through a 17 minute fairly technical explanation, here's the gist. Zinc has been known for a long time as an antiviral, since zinc, once inside the cellular membrane, interferes with the mechanism that the virus uses to hijack your cell's reproductive processes, in particular, the viral enzyme Replicase.
The problem is that zinc doesn't pass through the cell membrane readily. It's in the blood serum as zinc ions, which have a positive charge, which the cellular wall does not readily pass. So, we need something to assist the zinc ions into the cytosome of our cells.
And guess what does exactly that --- Chloroquine! It is what's called an ionophore, and it opens the cellular "gates" which allows the zinc ion to pass through the cell membrane. Apparently, once the zinc gets into cell, it doesn't take too much to get the job done (around 8:35 forward).
I'm not saving we've got a panacea here. I'm just explaining the strange mechanism by which it may work. Since I found my virology degree just like I did my J.D. & M.D. degrees in the bottom of boxes of Cracker Jacks, I throw myself on the mercy of the court if I've made any bloopers, since some of the folks here know this stuff much better than I ever will.
Another photographic bookend to the blogging day; very nice. Thank you.
And we can get through this together- as long as we avoid the salmon mousse.
apologies
My favorite John Lennon song is "Genius Is Pain," and it's not even by him. Imagine.
https://youtu.be/RhfGSeL_SQw
Hawkeyedjb reports: Many good things have been happening here. The neighborhood website has people volunteering to run errands for shut-ins, picking up groceries, taking them to appointments. Support for local businesses, including take-out orders from the restaurants (we had some). At the local Costco, lines outside are happy and orderly, and inside the store everyone waits their turn for the stuff we all want. Be good, Americans, be helpful and optimistic. It's what we do best.
Same here. Most people are behaving wonderfully and helpfully. So much to be thankful for, really. We still have power and water here. Things could be worse.
We're not together, we're apart. No matter how you try to spin it.
People are trying to work. Kids are yelling in the background. Grandparents are told to stay away. Children are told no one will be visiting to celebrate their birthday.
We're all in this together platitudes are just patronizing. A sacrifice is being demanded, part of which is an insistence on agreeing it isn't a sacrifice.
Young Hegelian: Thank you for the summary! Very informative. Apparently they aren't starting the trials in NY until Tuesday [not sure why they have to wait] but I pray they will show success!
Stevew, some will rise to the occasion and some will just bitch and moan. Don't be the latter.
I guess they have to ship it in from france or wherever.
I guess they have to ship it in from france or wherever.
Is Teva Pharmaceuticals a French company? They are donating their entire stock.
The Democrats are so evil they
1) Created this crises by making it much larger and worse than it was
And
2) Are now blocking relief because they are too stupid to realize what a disaster they've created and now think they can play games.
Evil.
Its israeli, the quantity demanded for the trial.
Not bitching sir, or is it madam, just asking that you not make this out to be something that it is not. I'm doing my part as it is requested. This is easy for the self-imposed shut ins. For others the adjustment is significant and demanding. Respectfully ask that you acknowledge that.
Suppose Althouse is right and we inch toward the "worst-case scenario" of 11 million dead.
Then we need young people being productive and keeping the economy going even more than now. The worst-case scenario is an argument for mobilizing anyone under 50 right now, ramping up their educations right now, having them take on critical tasks right now, training them in health-care tasks right now, to prevent utter collapse which would go well beyond the 11 million. Instead, most are sitting at home.
Shutting down schools worsens the worst case. Not to mention that it prevents herd immunity from building up, which would keep young people productive and over time establish protective barriers. The virus needs to spread more, just not to sick seniors, or anyone already sick for that matter.
Rigorous but selective quarantine will produce better results at lower costs. Assuming an incubation period of two weeks, we would soon know which sick and old people violated quarantine: any new cases beyond the incubation period would be due to breaking protocol.
They are just opening up another vein, like martins barber sketch, they have no intention of allowing a recovery in the near term, one might say they are on the sude of the pathogen, while pretending otherwise.
The park in back of our house is full of bikers, joggers, families with strollers, dog walkers - all day long. People with not much to do get outside and enjoy the day. It's nice to see. The roads have little traffic, but a lot of bikers. I rode yesterday and today and met hundreds. Being normal and sane is our goal.
I talked with my near-100 year old father today. He is irritated that the apartment village where he lives won't let him and the other nonagenarians get together to play bridge. What the heck, they might wake up dead tomorrow; they aren't worried about the virus or much of anything else. Gotta go sometime, he says, and I'm pretty close anyhow.
Pelosi tosses a hand grenade into the Senate, blows up 3 days of bi-partisan negotiations at the last minute.
I've read the very recent French study on hydroxychloroquine (Plaquenil) combined for some patients with azithromycin. Small study but quite competently and professionally done, and showed a substantial reduction in viral load for most of the patients to whom it was given...
Should have an immediate impact here in the U.S. because these are already approved drugs. Any physician can prescribe them right now and many will; it's simply an 'off-label' use, something doctors do all the time...
The FDA can enroll for a large placebo-controlled double-blind study (which is the gold standard) but clinicians aren't going to want to wait for that. And they don't have to...
11 million dead? Here, or worldwide? How does that happen without herd immunity developing and the return of heat and humidity?
hawkeyedjb said...
Many good things have been happening here.
Same here. Some grumbling about the restrictions on work/commerce, some grumbling about it being a Democrat hoax/Chinese plot, and panic for a few, but overall everyone is being sensible and supportive. Local social media has been a godsend for keeping everyone pointed in vaguely the right direction.
The initial panic buying has died down and was never worse than a standard storm. Now the waiting begins. How bad will it be in our local area? We have a few things working against us, primarily a large hospital. Things going for us are a relatively low density of housing and a well educated population.
My concerns are primarily for all the people working in the hospitals. On one social media site we had a local anesthesiologist requesting used ND95 masks of the kind used in industrial production. They will work fine, arguably better than the medical ones (although not disposable), but it is extraordinary that he had to do this.
I’ve been taking way to much whey protein isolate to get Wuhan, and I’ve never felt stronger!
Hear, hear, Sebastian.
... we can get through this together
Tell that to the Democrats in the US Senate!
"they aren't worried about the virus or much of anything else"
Nor should they be. Nor would I. Nor should we worry more about the virus on their behalf than they do.
At what cost do we try to extend their lives?
I1MMR in Genoa is on 7026.5 wanting to talk to somebody. Old guy who's up at 3am on his radio every day, looking to talk to 1000 US counties. Apparently keeping a list.
He got me in 2016.
“Many good things have been happening here. The neighborhood website has people volunteering to run errands for shut-ins, picking up groceries, taking them to appointments. Support for local businesses, including take-out orders from the restaurants (we had some). At the local Costco, lines outside are happy and orderly, and inside the store everyone waits their turn for the stuff we all want. Be good, Americans, be helpful and optimistic. It's what we do best._
I’m seeing good things too. Moms scheduling FaceTime play dates for their kids and their friends. Nature walks, conserving food and goods by using them in a smarter way, ordering food for busy families, so many things are possible when you have a desire to make life less miserable in miserable circumstances. People who have faced what they must do to help mitigate the physical damages this virus can do seem to be happier and better adjusted. This to shall pass, but in the meantime, can’t we at least try to rise to the occasion? Bellyaching and blaming and denying aren’t going to do anything to help oneself or others.
Actor Daniel Dae Kim credits drug cocktail touted by President Trump for his recovery from Coronavirus
Touted to much mocking and derision from the left I might add.
I don’t care for the “get in line” attitudes. I’m deeply suspicious of those who want to shut up others.
A $1.8 trillion bailout bill is bat-shit crazy, by the way. We don't have that kind of money, it will cripple us for whatever comes next.
Those who are screwing you over, like all the piggies getting their snouts in the trough with this stimulus circus, have a strong interest in you not asking questions / being skeptical / advocating for your own interests which to some is “bellyaching.”
@ARM:
As opposed to what will happen if we let the entire economy crash to the ground?
“For others the adjustment is significant and demanding. Respectfully ask that you acknowledge that.”
I don’t think the adjustment is easy for anyone, everyone has to make sacrifices and adjust.
One thing that has surprised me during all this is people who, before this emergency, seemed level headed and stable, have been the some of the ones to have the hardest time adjusting and are the biggest complainers.
Let’s hope this is wrong:
St Louis Fed sees 30% unemployment, 50% drop in GDP in Q2
Sebastian 8:36
Your plan is “infect the young”
This is similar to the British plan, and some other infect the young plans that have been proposed. They are very interesting and have a lot of logic to them. The real problems are
1 they go all in on a few unproven assumptions
2 they are hard to time and control
3 they are impossible to sell politically
My own fear is that these kinds of thing are actually the best approach. I wouldn’t bet against it. But you cannot get there from here.
Maddow is scared shitless that hydroxychloroquine is going to ruin its pandemic party. It says the drug isn’t “approved”. I’m sure most of ARM’s highly educated neighbors share that concern — it could prevent the recession Bill Maher promised.
For others the adjustment is significant and demanding.
I do recognize that, steve. However, it's only been a week! How are you possibly going to cope if it stretches out to several weeks? I hope you will rise to the occasion.
What MEDIA should be reporting
Very encouraging information from the Surgeon General.
The adjustment is fucking awesome to some, Inga, give me a break. Like retired recluses who aren’t trying to work for a living, plus raise and educate kids, plus monitor elderly parents, all at the same time. People who have no responsibilities other than sewing masks and daily park runs sound like such asshats telling others that they are whining and complaining.
The last stimulus bill didn’t stimulate much but DC. I’m very skeptical about this one as well.
Some people are clearly very much enjoying feeling like heroes. Others are trying to hold their lives together.
heyboom said...
As opposed to what will happen if we let the entire economy crash to the ground?
During the financial crisis there were multiple clear models of what works and what doesn't work and the government's response was close to optimal. What are the models here? Caution is required until understanding develops. You don't hear many economists screaming for this bill, it's all about politicians buying votes with other peoples money, and the need to look like they are doing something. I agree with the support for people who have lost their jobs but that is all.
They cant be simultaneous aaying there is no time to lose, and then revising the deal, rhetorical.
Huge spike in U.S. deaths today throws a wrench in hope for a flattening of that curve, but if tomorrow drops back down with the previous two day miracle, we could still be back on the road to flatsville. Hoping this one day is an anomaly. Still mostly confined to NY, with half the nation experiencing very few fatalities and no real growth in the rate.
It made dc into the Capitol, it allowed fiat to completely buy out chryaler, as to making mortgage holders anything close to whole, who are you kidding
I agree with the support for people who have lost their jobs but that is all.
ARM, what about after the siege is over? Will people have jobs to return to if they aren't kept afloat? This is nothing like the economic bailout of the past where corporations were partly responsible for the very situation that caused the crisis. Don't you see any difference?
“Some people are clearly very much enjoying feeling like heroes. Others are trying to hold their lives together.”
EVERYONE is trying to hold their lives together. Some people seem to think they are exempt. Sorry, no one is exempt. Covid doesn’t care.
Calling Cookie: How are things in your part of NYC? Hope you are and remain well. And sane. :-)
the usual wreckers
MountainMan said...
St Louis Fed sees 30% unemployment, 50% drop in GDP in Q2
"The St. Louis Fed’s view of the virus-related shutdowns on the economy is more dire than Wall Street. JPMorgan Chase & Co. expects gross domestic product to shrink at an annualized rate of 14% in the April-June period while Bank of America Corp. and Oxford Economics both see a 12% drop. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. sees a 24% plunge."
That is quite a range. Maybe we should see what actually happens before blowing our wad.
mockturtle said...
Don't you see any difference?
I see a big difference, we have no really useful model of our current situation. Everything everyone says is suspect. We still don't know how long this virus is going to take to wash-out and what trade-offs with sustaining the economy will be made.
Negativity might be a way for some to cope, but I have to ask, how is negativity going to make things easier? There are people who survive life’s shitstorms and those who just sink in the shit. For my own survival and that of my loved ones and people I care about and humanity in general I’m going to try to help others see a way forward, to rise above. Where is the good old American can do attitude? It’s been one week and people act like they are ready to have a nervous breakdown.
A $1.8 trillion bailout bill is bat-shit crazy, by the way. We don't have that kind of money, it will cripple us for whatever comes next.
It's less than 10% of our current debt. We are still the strongest and most stable economy and currency. Our economy will recover by the fall, and hopefully learn the lesson about dependence on China.
Thats why we need to bring the economy back on line as quickly as possible.
"Where is the good old American can do attitude?"
https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/cars/2020/03/22/coronavirus-ventilator-shortage-gm-tesla-covid-19/2895190001/
https://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma/new-commitments-mylan-and-teva-move-to-supply-tens-millions-hydroxychloroquine-tablets-to
https://news4sanantonio.com/news/local/harbor-freight-tools-to-donate-entire-medical-supply-to-24-hour-emergency-rooms
There's more.
Need Kashmiri, president of the Minneapolis Fed said on 60 Minutes tonight that most of the monetary mistakes from 08 were characterized by too small or too slow. So he is pushing for Go Big or Go Home here and stresses they have much more in their quiver despite all that’s already been done. Seems like a Mexican stand-off is happening in the Senate. Paul, Romney, and Lee are quarantined and only 94 voted. 47-47....getting warm in here
Mountain Man, I see the St. Louis Fed projections as a more rosy scenario. Over this next week, thousands more businesses will be closing and laying off employees. Some will be closing and laying off in the hopes that they can reopen again in 4 weeks. 8 weeks? 12 weeks? Many will just be forced to close permanently if it runs anymore than 2-4 weeks. The House & Senate continue playing political games with apparently no urgency to get things done on the Dems side. These people clearly do not know what it takes to run a small business, just how hard it is to keep it going (and keep employing people), and how small a margin for error most small businesses have.
There are a few sectors which will keep cranking: Healthcare, obviously. Medical equipment and pharmaceutical manufacturers. Web services, cable, streaming, anything video or media related that you can do in the home. Grocers and food producers. Truckers, if we can keep them safe and healthy. Some equity/capital groups will be needed. Some Wall Street mover and shakers will be needed because...money will be needed. Everyone else will be non-essential.
We won't need new cars, clothes, tennis rackets, hotel rooms, luxury spas (well, maybe luxury spas), new mattresses. I see much more than 50% unemployment. The only way it'll be 50% is if half the people not working are also not reporting for unemployment, which is always the case. So a 50% unemployment number means that many more are not working. Forget GDP for the 2nd and 3rd quarters. Even if this opens up again in late May, it'll take 30-60 days to get businesses up and cranking. And many...won't reopen. Like mine.
Like A Reasonable Man, I want to support those who have lost their livelihood. You can't put people back to work when the economy is shut. If I get a stimulus check that I don't need, I'll hire someone to do something. Meanwhile, try to spend your money in a way that will keep somebody working.
“Where is the good old American can do attitude?"
https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/cars/2020/03/22/coronavirus-ventilator-shortage-gm-tesla-covid-19/2895190001/
https://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma/new-commitments-mylan-and-teva-move-to-supply-tens-millions-hydroxychloroquine-tablets-to
https://news4sanantonio.com/news/local/harbor-freight-tools-to-donate-entire-medical-supply-to-24-hour-emergency-rooms
There's more.”
Yay! If everyone succumbed to negativity and feeling sorry for themselves, we would NOT see things like this. Good news, buck up!
The FDA can enroll for a large placebo-controlled double-blind study (which is the gold standard)
In normal times, yes. But in the face of an epidemic that will kill 50 million people, giving half the testees the equivalent of nothing means consigning them to death. That means they need to rethink their ethics.
And it's not like bioethics is set in stone. It is an ever-moving standard, usually moving in the direction of accepting what just yesterday was considered monstrous.
It seems that the Wuhan flu has cooled the Seattle dating scene. My needs-to-be-married daughter is here watching Netflix with her mother.
So which is, is it a plague that will ravage the country, or a brief interlude that doesnt require immediate assistance.
"Yay! If everyone succumbed to negativity and feeling sorry for themselves, we would NOT see things like this. Good news, buck up!"
I agree. My only fear is the economic toll this will take if the closures last too long.
That said, it is definitely better for mature and healthy functioning to find something positive to work on, even in bad situations. But you don't have to deny that unnecessary crap is happening in order to do that. Embrace the power of and.
"Where is the good old American can do attitude?"
... links ..
There's more.
=======
Yup. Imagine if Bernie had been elected in 2016, with 3 years to punish and dismantle the pharma industry. Or to squelch innovation in venture capital companies.
And Inga, from what you've shared here, I with all sincerity wish my grandchildren had an Oma like you to be a part of their lives in these times (and in better times too).
hawkeyedjb said...
Meanwhile, try to spend your money in a way that will keep somebody working.
This is the thing that has been emphasized more than anything on our local social media. There are a lot of self-employed people and small businesses on these sites who are really hurting in this shut-down. People are buying gift certificates from restaurants, but there are only so many gift certificates anyone can use. I started to plan some exterior house renovation that I have put off for years and really needs to be done. Just having the security of knowing that there are jobs in the pipeline is helpful.
more hot air
Haha! My children, of course, is what I meant. Brain no workee.
You know, the real question is this --
I could have sworn I bought some cinnamon bread. I definitely remember looking at it in the store and seeing that it was on sale and that I should buy it. But for the life of me, I can't find it.
Did I leave it in the car?
Did you keep the receipt.
“I agree. My only fear is the economic toll this will take if the closures last too long.”
After WW2 America was hurting... I think we can see what can be accomplished even under the worst of circumstances.
“Economic Growth Post-World War II
The standard thinking of the day was that the United States would sink into a deep depression at the war’s end. Paul Samuelson, a future Nobel Prize winner, wrote in 1943 that upon cessation of hostilities and demobilization “some ten million men will be thrown on the labor market.” He warned that unless wartime controls were extended there would be “the greatest period of unemployment and industrial dislocation which any economy has ever faced.” Another future Nobel laureate, Gunnar Myrdal, predicted that postwar economic turmoil would be so severe that it would generate an “epidemic of violence.”
This, of course, reflects a world view that sees aggregate demand as the prime driver of the economy. If government stops employing soldiers and armament factory workers, for example, their incomes evaporate and spending will decline. This will further depress consumption spending and private investment spending, sending the economy into a downward spiral of epic proportions. But nothing of the sort actually happened after World War II.”
https://www.mercatus.org/publications/economic-history/economic-recovery-lessons-post-world-war-ii-period
“And Inga, from what you've shared here, I with all sincerity wish my grandchildren had an Oma like you to be a part of their lives in these times (and in better times too).”
Thank you!
What has that Trump hate ever gotten you? How has it made your life better?
How is the Trump hate making your life happier and more hopeful right now?
<href="https://media.thedonald.win/thedonald/post/Jsnh8vDo.png?fbclid="> i know ive bought things and sometimes left them in the car</a>
Stiles i guess was like john sheridan befire he came to babylon 5.
@YoungHegelian: Thanks much for that link! Here's Derek Lowe's take on chloroquine. It's chemistry rich, but Lowe is a talented writer. I love how he weaves quinine into the story.
When I look at the structure of chloroquine wiki link, I see exactly why the molecule blinds zinc so well: those nitrogenous appendages swaddle the ion and no doubt there's som chelate effect going on. As for how chloroquine gets inside the cell, look at the other side of the molecule. It's a big nonpolar (lipiphillic) moiety that dives right into a a gooey cell membrane, dragging the zinc with it by its tail.
Now this got me to thinking of whether quinine itself might be able to pull this off (the transport), albeit much less so than chloroquine. It too is an antimalarial. Thoughts anyone?
Just for the record. My earlier post was not to be negative. It's reality. As for me, my company is now closed. Hoping it'll only be 2 months, but if it's more, the company is done. But the entire industry we work in is temporarily done. It WILL however come back in a huge way when things clear up. I just might not be there to take part in it. But that's OK.
If I were younger and had not gone through anything in my life previously, I'd be worried sick right now. But I'm older and have seen life in great times and bad times. So, crazily, I'm not worried. I'm looking at this as a chance for a new path, a new opportunity. And frankly, it's time.
I just hate to see so many lives turned upside down.
Pants [and stevew]: I apologize. If whining makes you feel better then go right ahead. While it won't improve the situation, if venting is therapeutic, then do it. You remain in my prayers. And please, let's all pray for a quick ending to this.
Temujin, I hope everyone will contact their representatives and urge them to pass this latest stimulus package. Maybe your business will get the much-needed assistance the package offers.
Now this got me to thinking of whether quinine* itself might be able to pull this off (the transport), albeit much less so than chloroquine.
______________________________________
*Sparking a run on tonic water and some gin to splash it down with.
Inga wrote: Yay! If everyone succumbed to negativity and feeling sorry for themselves, we would NOT see things like this. Good news, buck up!
Agree!
Hey, it's only 30% say some.
That's just 6.6 trillion dollars on an annualized basis. Only 1.65 trillion for Q2.
Those are real dollars lost. I've been banging the drum for more than a month. It sucks to know what's coming and watch it inevitably arise.
this is the directors thesis
If I were younger and had not gone through anything in my life previously, I'd be worried sick right now. But I'm older and have seen life in great times and bad times. So, crazily, I'm not worried. I'm looking at this as a chance for a new path, a new opportunity. And frankly, it's time.
This resonates with me because I keep having the thought that, at 40, I've been through some dramatic / unexpected / growth inducing life experiences, but really not that many. I keep thinking, this is kind of the stuff that happens over the course of an 80 year lifespan that teaches you how things work, and what you're made of, and how to not hold so tightly to the things of this world, and how to be flexible. Don't be a monkey with your fist stuck in a jar because you won't relax your grip. That's a weird and counterintuitive lesson because when you're younger you are working so hard to build your life and your nest and you have to hold tight. But then things come along and show you that they weren't lying when they told you it was going to be a bumpy road. These times are the fabric that your life and your wisdom are made of. Does that make sense?
Inga quoted: Paul Samuelson, a future Nobel Prize winner, wrote in 1943 that upon cessation of hostilities and demobilization “some ten million men will be thrown on the labor market.” He warned that unless wartime controls were extended there would be “the greatest period of unemployment and industrial dislocation which any economy has ever faced.
Well, Bretton Woods was needed in 1944 for the recovery. Nowadays, that old system has been under strain so something new might be needed.
A sacrifice is being demanded, part of which is an insistence on agreeing it isn't a sacrifice.
3/22/20, 8:25 PM
You know, being asked to say at home for a couple of weeks (hopefully, that is all it will be) and wash your hands isn't on a level with landing on Omaha Beach.
Kids have nobody at their birthday parties. My mother lost her high school sweetheart when he was killed at Monte Cassio. There's a bit of a difference.
There is the 30-second rule (or whatever period of time you want to use), where you are allowed to yell and scream and vent and cry for 30 seconds. And then you have to stop, take a breath, and soldier on.
"Hey, it's only 30% say some.
That's just 6.6 trillion dollars on an annualized basis. Only 1.65 trillion for Q2."
Worsening public health for years to come, affecting the young.
Hurting the old we are supposed to save by tearing down the safety net--bye-bye pensions, for starters.
#StopTheInsanity. #StopTheInjustice.
Mock, it's pejorative and dismissive to use the word 'whining.' Next year's income will likely be 30 percent lower -- for the same work -- than it would have been. We have six children who rely on my husband's provision for them. We have six children whose futures are being tossed around with very little care from the people who are making these sweeping decisions. Would you like to be in this situation? Obviously the adult thing to do is to sigh, suck it up, adjust life plans, count blessings, and realize that life goes on, but it sucks. It's ok to say that it sucks. You can say something sucks, and be frustrated that from where you're sitting it's so unnecessary, and also put on your big girl pants and deal with it.
Vesti la giubba.
Wasnt bretton woods trashed by 1971, with going off the gold standard, anyways that doesnt deal with aggregate demand.
Quinine is, of course, in the same family of compounds but it can have serious side effects whereas hydroxychloroquine is much better tolerated.
Which is also why (paradoxically) HCQ won't be over the counter while quinine is. Dosage.
I love the word dose: it's linked back directly to Greek δώσε which means "give." This also explains the weird German word for poison which is Gift; Gift is an old participle of geben which of course means "give" in German just as in Greek.
Easier to say than do.
It always is.
narciso said...Wasnt bretton woods trashed by 1971, with going off the gold standard, anyways that doesnt deal with aggregate demand.
I think we keep the mechanisms and treaty languages intact but went onto an "oil standard" instead of a gold standard. We just swapped the base commodity.
Pants, I have all the sympathy in the world for people who are being hit hard financially by this. I don't discount their sufferings one bit. The ones who are getting to me are the people whining because they can't go to the bar and have a drink or eat out or buy TP. They are trying my patience even more than the "We're all gonna die!" alarmists.
Anybody else remember that federal judge that called the Trump travel restrictions on Iranians illegal a few months back?
And that Winnie Xi Flu arrived via an Iranian just after that decision?
Leftist federal judges know best, right?
And that wasnt a good trade off, it effectively enabled fiat money to nearly infinite reach.
“This resonates with me because I keep having the thought that, at 40, I've been through some dramatic / unexpected / growth inducing life experiences, but really not that many. I keep thinking, this is kind of the stuff that happens over the course of an 80 year lifespan that teaches you how things work, and what you're made of, and how to not hold so tightly to the things of this world, and how to be flexible. Don't be a monkey with your fist stuck in a jar because you won't relax your grip. That's a weird and counterintuitive lesson because when you're younger you are working so hard to build your life and your nest and you have to hold tight. But then things come along and show you that they weren't lying when they told you it was going to be a bumpy road. These times are the fabric that your life and your wisdom are made of. Does that make sense?”
YES! I can understand the angst that this sort of national/ health emergency can give younger people, especially those with children. Maybe being older and having survived life’s bumpy times and even life’s earthquakes, helps with coping. I can’t do much physically for those I love right now and the community, but I can keep plugging away in my small ways to help make the load less onerous for those I’m in contact with.
There was a hawaiian judge one up in seattle, one in maryland, good reminders
narciso said...And that wasnt a good trade off, it effectively enabled fiat money to nearly infinite reach.
Isn't that true!
mockturtle said... [hush][hide comment]
Pants [and stevew]: I apologize. If whining makes you feel better then go right ahead. While it won't improve the situation, if venting is therapeutic, then do it.
Bless your heart. Is there any possible way this shutdown will hurt you financially? Any chance bills won't get paid? No money to put gas in the motor home?
Got enough fixed income to cover all bases? I don't see people worried about their future whining. I see them very concerned.
Been there. Not a chance of financial concern for me but I will never, ever forget what it was like.
I try to stay uninformed. The futures are limit down. I live in NYC which is apparently the epicenter of the disease. I don't think we'll be hearing any substantial good news in the near future. Maybe a big improvement in therapeutics or cheaper, easier tests. Maybe, but not this week.....I'm watching Broadchurch. It holds your attention. Olivia Colman brings a sort of star presence to her roles as frumpy housewife. The plot hooks in the second season are manipulative and implausible, but they keep you hooked. Anyway, it's better than the news.
That judge's travel decision to allow Iranians to travel into New York City sure seems like good jurisprudence.
Hawai'i judge has nothing on New York judge.
A $1 trillion package still likely to come out of Congress -- also insane. It cannot "work" without work: what we need is young, healthy people working and going to school, helping the old by not having the infrastructure of life itself collapse.
One of these days, let's calculate cost per QALY saved, shall we? With a couple of trillion lost in the real economy, a trillion here and there in public expenditures, even if we imagine we are preventing a big chunk of Althouse's worst-case scenario, say 5 of her 11 million, about half with low life expectancy as in Italy, that may approach a cost an order of magnitude higher than we currently accept in medical decision-making. That makes no sense.
And of course no one has even begun to think about the ripple effect around the world. If America falters, it will dramatically worsen life for all our trading partners and allies and foreign investors, for everyone who depends on American innovation, and so on and so forth. Saving the economy saves lives. Killing the economy kills.
@narciso: As you know, there just wasn't enough gold being produced to keep up with growth. So oil wasn't a bad choice -- it still must be extracted from the earth. True, it is seemingly limitless, but also, remember that unlike gold it is destroyed, transforming into CO2 which vexes us in other ways. What would you propose as a new standard of commodity? Toilet paper?
Remember all the Leftist Collectivists cheering the Resistance judges who kept smacking down Trump Administration travel bans?
Tell me how those decisions allowing an WuFlu-infected Iranian into the country was just jake.
Come on, Leftists; don't disappoint me.
Praise those overturned legal decisions like you did three months ago!!
Stay safe, William!
Yes the key is to reverse the flatline asapp, the cash might holdover in the interval, but thats not how it works.
Apparently they aren't starting the trials in NY until Tuesday
It's already the standard of care for infected patients who require hospitalization: the 2-drug combo + zinc + vitamin C. The thing that's starting up next week are the studies, but clinicians are already using this and some other protocols on the hundreds of patients in hospital. Not only is this guy a doctor here in NYC, but he links to lots of other clinicians who are working and tweeting up to the minute stuff.. Good feed to check.
How strange, but good to know.
Lost Sense of Smell May Be Peculiar Clue to Coronavirus Infection
“On Friday, British ear, nose and throat doctors, citing reports from colleagues around the world, called on adults who lose their senses of smell to isolate themselves for seven days, even if they have no other symptoms, to slow the disease’s spread. The published data is limited, but doctors are concerned enough to raise warnings.
“We really want to raise awareness that this is a sign of infection and that anyone who develops loss of sense of smell should self-isolate,” Prof. Claire Hopkins, president of the British Rhinological Society, wrote in an email. “It could contribute to slowing transmission and save lives.”
So, at what point do we shut down the shutdowns?
For now, we let restaurants and entertainment and cruise lines and airlines go down the drain.
By summer, it will be the turn of private schools and universities: another sector waiting to be devastated.
Of course, finance of all sorts is already severely stressed: many debtors can't pay, creditors don't get paid.
Pretty soon, the very foundation of the system will start to rot.
Birkel said...Remember all the Leftist Collectivists cheering the Resistance judges who kept smacking down Trump Administration travel bans?
Birkel, that sort of blaming doesn't help, really. You need to embrace the Ingas as your own (at a distance, of course). On their side, they need to shut down any "Trump's fault" claptrap. I think Althouse has been saying the same.
Sebastian,
I think we should write 5 million life insurance policies for $500k each. That's 2.5 trillion pledged and everybody who wants to go back to work does so with the knowledge that we are covered. At risk groups can shelter in place. People who are scared can stay home.
Let's get back to work.
Inga said...Lost Sense of Smell May Be Peculiar Clue to Coronavirus Infection
When Althouse sees that tomorrow, betcha she blogs it.
Sebastian,
You fucking quit teasing me with higher ed collapse. I may start to favor complete economic shutdown.
/sarc for the reading impaired
chickelit,
Fuck that! Thanks for playing.
“I'm watching Broadchurch. It holds your attention.”
I finally got a subscription to HBO. I’ve heard all the hype about Game of Thrones, I didn't think I’d like it, but I’m hooked. So glad there are 8 seasons! Also watched the first episode of their new series The Plot Against America, pretty good so far.
Now at 34,000 cases U.S. Half of them in New York.
Inga,
Enjoy the first seven seasons. I cannot apologize enough for season 8.
Broadchurch was much better than the U.S. counterpart Gracepoint.
Bless your heart. Is there any possible way this shutdown will hurt you financially? Any chance bills won't get paid? No money to put gas in the motor home?
Well, FM, if the market crashes I'll lose my pension. Maybe I'd still have Social Security. But guess what? There's not a damned thing I can do about that right now except to help others when and where I can and keep my faith in God and that "all things work together for good". Our President is trying hard to keep workers and businesses afloat for the interim and I pray the Senate will do their part to help rather than obstruct. But, other than emailing them with urging and encouragement, it's out of my hands. Believe me, I'm not someone who has never lived through adversity. As they say, what doesn't kill us makes us stronger. God bless us all.
Check out Steve Malanga at City Journal. Message: tanking the economy will devastate states. No travelers to be squeezed, upper-income people losing cap gains, pensions schemes falling short even more, and so on and so forth. Pretty soon, they won't be able to pay for any health measures. They will have no safety net.
Saving the economy is the safety net.
On the plus side, tomorrow I'm going to take my ten year old to the deserted Little League ballfield parking lot and let him drive my Expedition around and shoot off his water rocket. He's going to have a blast.
FYI,
Post by Doc Kennedy chez chicagoboyz.net where he stretches out more than here:
It is time to start the economy again.
As they say, what doesn't kill us makes us stronger.
I think Nietzsche said that first.
God, grant me the serenity
to accept the things I cannot change,
courage to change the things I can
and wisdom to know the difference.
You see the passive aggressive troll o er there.
I think Nietzsche said that first.
;-) I was always rather fond of Nietzsche.
For now, we let restaurants and entertainment and cruise lines and airlines go down the drain.
Shutting down airlines is Greta Thunberg's Tigerbeat heartthrob.
I'm diving back into my self-study of Greek. 'Night all!
So one of the AH reporters accusatorily asked the President about the relief bill bogging down in the Senate.
Apparently it was the DEMOCRATS who blocked cloture.
narciso said...You see the passive aggressive troll o er there.
--
Where?
These times are the fabric that your life and your wisdom are made of. Does that make sense?
We'll touch and feel and then cotton onto it, eventually.
Anyone catch Levin interviewing Pence and Fauci tonight?
Game Of Thrones Season 8: Pitch Meeting
His name is pengun, defending the chinese and cuban regimes over there.
So the NYC infections came via Iran, not directly from China?
As they say, what doesn't kill us makes us stronger.
What doesn't break us, may make us stronger.
Washington Post headlines --
As coronavirus spreads, so do doubts about America’s ability to meet the moment
As coronavirus spreads, so do doubts about America’s ability to combat it
Governors, mayors in growing uproar over Trump’s response
In Europe, a frantic scramble for hospital beds, ventilators and supplies
Trump’s immigration policies have already put lives at risk - Editorial Board
In pro-Trump West Virginia, a fight to convince residents a pandemic is coming
What is the Defense Production Act, and why isn’t President Trump invoking it?
The new sick leave law doesn’t help the workers that need it most
Hey let's all just surrender to the Leftist Collectivists. We wouldn't want to be mean. After all, there is a crisis. And we never want the Leftist Collectivists to let a crisis go to waste. Let's forget the Reaistance judges who stuck a thumb in Trump's eye. Sure, they were overturned because the law was against them, but they managed to let an infected Iranian traveler into the country. And New York City is bearing the brunt of those decisions.
Live and let... no that expression will not work.
So now we're watching Pelosi and Schumer Resist. They're more pleased to fight Trump than to stabilize the markets. And we'll fucking need those markets. All those retirees who depend on income streams be damned. We have to make them poorer to save them. And we'll collapse the pensions - state and private. Let's kill all the things because OrangeManBad.
I cannot possibly communicate how shortsighted all this bull shit is.
narciso,
Kinda figured based on just a glimpse at comments there ;)
Ralph L,
Yes. There is a map of the spread.
Anyone catch Levin interviewing Pence and Fauci tonight?
I caught the Fauci segment, after my daughter texted me that he was on. Nice to hear that he believes Trump is doing everything that can be done.
Then there's this from Drudge -
New Yorkers Wonder if They Should Leave City...
So much for containment.
Didnt they write this vekakte bill, honestly these (bastards) put me in a red wedding mood.
New Yorkers Wonder if They Should Leave City...
So much for containment.
Armed guards should stop all egress.
mock,
Did he tip his hand regarding duration of any of these broader efforts?
Still slow dragging therapies?
New Yorkers Wonder if They Should Leave City...
So much for containment.
Armed guards should stop all egress.
I nominate Snake Plisskin!
narc' has me learning yiddish. Oy ve!
I picked up some words here and there,
Dr Fauci let the Swine Flu infect 60mm Americans, killing more than 10k without shutting down the US economy.
This time it was imperative to kill the US economy.
We must kill 6 trillion dollars of economic activity for a very similar disease because reasons.
"New Yorkers Wonder if They Should Leave City.."
Is Warren Willhelm Jr still mayor?
Bless your heart. Is there any possible way this shutdown will hurt you financially? Any chance bills won't get paid? No money to put gas in the motor home?
Well, FM, if the market crashes I'll lose my pension.
C'mon, man! There is absolutely, positively no possible way the thought of losing your pension IF the markets crash has caused a minute of concern.
As opposed to those some call whiners and deniers who will lose sleep tonight wondering if they will lose the car or the house because of the shutdown.
Did he tip his hand regarding duration of any of these broader efforts?
Still slow dragging therapies?
No, he's not going to prognosticate but he sounded more optimistic than before.
Like bane hed probably blow the bridges before then.
Is Warren Willhelm Jr still mayor?
That's Wuhan Wilhelm Jr to you!
For those of us who know Jesus, here is the hymn "How Firm A Foundation".
Every one of the verses is about knowing God is with you in times of trouble.
1 How firm a foundation, ye saints of the Lord,
Is laid for your faith in His excellent word!
What more can He say than to you He hath said—
To you who for refuge to Jesus have fled?
2 "Fear not, I am with thee, oh, be not dismayed,
For I am thy God, and will still give thee aid;
I'll strengthen thee, help thee, and cause thee to stand,
Upheld by My righteous, omnipotent hand.
3 "When through the deep waters I call thee to go,
The rivers of sorrow shall not overflow;
For I will be with thee thy troubles to bless,
And sanctify to thee thy deepest distress.
4 "When through fiery trials thy pathway shall lie,
My grace, all sufficient, shall be thy supply;
The flame shall not harm thee; I only design
Thy dross to consume and thy gold to refine.
5 "The soul that on Jesus hath leaned for repose,
I will not, I will not, desert to his foes;
That soul, though all hell should endeavor to shake,
I'll never, no never, no never forsake."
In the dark times prior to November 2016, when I was sure we were on the road to Venezuela, I sang it every day. I have been known to sing a few verses to nurses, while being rolled into surgery to have bad stuff removed. No one knows who wrote it, but whoever it was, they knew they could trust God. There is deep evil in the world, but there is also true Hope.
Today we had our church service via Zoom. The sermon was on be not afraid, the reading from David and Goliath (i Sam chapter 17). We live in interesting times. God does not promise it will be easy. He does promise to be with us.
Well Birkel,
That love letter to Hil in Benghazi days was far stronger praise than the circumspect words he used regarding Trump while being interviewed by Hugh Hewitt.
Just sayin'
"But once the town gates were shut, every one of us realized that all, the narrator included, were, so to speak, in the same boat, and each would have to adapt himself to the new conditions of life. Thus, for example, a feeling normally as individual as the ache of separation from those one loves suddenly became a feeling in which all shared alike and -- together with fear -- the greatest affliction of the long period of exile that lay ahead." (Camus, The Plague)
C'mon, man!
Make that ma'am. ;-)
So what am I supposed to do about your problems? Honestly, some of you act as though you've been unemployed and under house arrest for months. IT'S BEEN A WEEK since these measures have been enacted. Have you not set aside some money for a 'rainy day'? If not, why not? Grow a pair!
Look how they have been behaving in nyc in san francisco and springfield, does it loom like theyll be back up in a week.
walter,
Are you saying the good doctor might just be reacting differently because of some heretofore unknown difference? One cannot stretch to imagine what the difference would be.
Maybe we should ask a Resistance judge to rule on the matter. Perhaps that judge can block Trump Administration actions to keep WuFlu infected Iranians out of the country. A twofer.
Dr Fauci let the Swine Flu infect 60mm Americans, killing more than 10k without shutting down the US economy.
This time it was imperative to kill the US economy.
Sigh. We're beyond that now, OK?
This backward-looking finger-pointing and blaming DOES NOT HELP ANYONE.
Huisache: Nice passage.
I'm a university professor. Tomorrow at 9:30 I teach via web cam and portable doc cam from my new home lecture studio for the first time. We'll see how it goes.
Whose brad pitt in this twelve monkeys scenario, the film didnt do justice to the concept.
What do you teach?
Mock -- we've had snowstorms and hurricanes shut down states for longer periods than this (one week).
It is way too early to freak out. We've got a ways to go before it is time to do that.
mockturtle,
The crowd here is probably well-heeled compared to the average American. We are the fucking employers of the people who do not have the means to set a little back. We keep those people out of poverty. And we care about those people. We want them to afford rent, groceries, and meds.
But if you slice 25% off the US economy, those people are fucked. Fucked as in never recovering. And your cavalier attitude about their suffering is appalling.
Umm..this is seemingly shaping up to threat to far more than "rainy day" sums.
So what am I supposed to do about your problems? Honestly, some of you act as though you've been unemployed and under house arrest for months. IT'S BEEN A WEEK since these measures have been enacted. Have you not set aside some money for a 'rainy day'? If not, why not? Grow a pair!
Like I said in my first comment, I have no financial problems and will have absolutely no problem at all. Just like you have no concerns. 'twas not always so, also as said in first comment. Unlike you, however, I do not consider people with families to feed and bills to pay now out of work as needing to "grow a pair" and "man up" and ride out the storm. People are suffering and scared and although some might view them as "whiners" , it ain't gonna be me..
No one is being cavalier about anything. Except for those who cavalierly accuse others of not taking this seriously.
You misunderstand, Mark.
I am talking about now. Dr Fauci needs to put his 2009 level-headed hat on and deal with the reality. The reality is that we are not looking at much worse than Swine Flu but we'll kill a bunch of people with poverty if this shit keeps up.
If a fed gov is telling it may be 50% gdp loss, you think people will wait and see.no theyll be selling that isnt tied down.
I am forward looking. No looking back here.
batter up
https://mobile.twitter.com/thomasjoscelyn/status/1240993468295626752?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
And your cavalier attitude about their suffering is appalling.
Birkel, I urge you to point your animus where it belongs--to your [Democrat?] Senators. They are blocking a measure that will help you and your employees and see us through this ordeal with minimal adversity. Far from being cavalier, I am very concerned about workers and small businesses. They include my children and and grandchildren, some with children of their own. I am also concerned about small businesses near where I live and am doing what I can by patronizing their services. Much of the day I pray that this will be short-lived with little loss of life and financial stability. I pray for our President, his team and our wonderful country.
I teach math, mostly to future / current teachers. Last week I transformed my six courses (three junior, two senior, one grad) into online courses with virtual lectures. Plus I've got my three kids to home school now.
Sitting up late into the night, reading Camus in the old wingback chair I moved into my office / bunker, sipping tequila while I listen to the peculiar silence that surrounds the house now. Good times.
I work in border towns. We just got our first confirmed case.
We see the road ahead how schumer hobbled indybank after the fall of bear stearns anf how that presaged what would happen not too far in the future
My border town also got its first confirmed case a couple of days ago. But scarcely anyone here has been tested, even those with symptoms. So the number is bound to rise.
mockturtle,
You are cavalier. You are supporting these insane stay at home policies that are going to crush the economy. Estimates are between 25 and 50 percent. That's between 5 and 11 TRILLION dollars.
That's not trivial. It cannot be replaced easily. A 25% drop must be followed by a 33% increase to return to the baseline. A 50% drop requires a 100% upswing to reach our previous state. Those sorts of near-term increases are impossible.
And the Swine Flu (H1N1) infected 20% of worldwide populations without this sort of reversal? That seems reasonable.
/sarc
Btw, a major portion of my work involves public events. Not the most lucrative, but..more typically solid as the days on a calendar. Numerous events cancelled, a few temporarily at least postponed to Fall. One gig is a commercial scheduled for next Friday.
No word on this though the client is posting marketing crap about "what can we do as creatives during lockdown", so I'm assuming cancelled.
One of my clients I am closer to is saying he is considering working as a security guard for $12.50/hr.
I don't want to look at my investments (from pre-'08 FT job) at this point...maybe I should.
Blogger FullMoon said...
. . .
Like I said in my first comment, I have no financial problems and will have absolutely no problem at all. Just like you have no concerns. 'twas not always so, also as said in first comment. Unlike you, however, I do not consider people with families to feed and bills to pay now out of work as needing to "grow a pair" and "man up" and ride out the storm. People are suffering and scared and although some might view them as "whiners" , it ain't gonna be me..
Me, too, Full Moon. I am going to retire on July 1st, so back in January I cashed out a large portion of my 403B. I am age 60, healthy, strong of limb and wind. My job is secure until July 1st, (I work for a non-profit that does scientific research) and I could delay retirement, though I won't. I'll do just fine.
Do I want a government check for a grand? Sure. Do I need that check more than some young family that is hit hard by this thing? Nope. Give it to them.
I found the US National Pandemic Plan and it has limitations that explain a lot about what is happening right now.
The plan was based on the scientific certainty that sooner or later there would be a pandemic so there should be a plan. So they organized to form the plan. So the first step was: There should be a plan. (I kid you not, remember this is a government document written by a committee.) So a mission statement was written. Then the plan was planned. The plan was 1. That reports of outbreaks should be delivered to WHO at once so that WHO would know what was developing. [On January 20th China notified WHO that a SARS type virus had broken in China two months before.] 2. That WHO would notify the world when a pandemic broke out. [On March 11 WHO declared that a pandemic existed] 3. That the US would develop the capability of developing a vaccine within three months after the WHO notification of a pandemic [by May 11] and the US would have stocks of anti-viral medicine which would mitigate the virus. [However the US can't develop a vaccine in three months; the US requires vaccine trials that take years. Furthermore, no vaccine against SARS or MERS has ever been developed even twelve years these viruses first appeared.] 4. That there should be stocks of everything needed. 5. That the population would be notified in clear, simple language that they needed to wash their hands carefully.
In short the plan was to have timely notifications of disease and to have plentiful stocks of the medicines needed. We didn't have timely notifications and we have rules preventing timely development of the medicines needed and hence we were never going to have plentiful stocks of what was needed.
So, in general it seems to me that the pandemic plan was never a plan for a pandemic. The "plan" was to have the medicines needed but if you had the medicine needed there wouldn't be a pandemic, there would just be the flu season or a local outbreak of TB. A pandemic happens because there is no medicine for a transmissible disease and a pandemic plan is what you do when the medicine isn't there. It was always obvious that the medicine wouldn't be there for a new version of SARS or MERS because clinical trials of vaccines take several years. The pandemic would be in its third year before there was vaccine, assuming they developed one, and, again, it was known, that they hadn't been able to develop a vaccine for either SARS or MERS in twelve years.
No one noticed that there really was no plan for a pandemic and no one called in economists and union leaders and politicians to work out a plan for when medicine fails, i.e., for a pandemic. And still, we are looking at medicine to tell us what to do when medicine fails but how can it? Medicine can say: "This virus might last six months." But the quarantine cannot go on for six months; it can't go on for four weeks.
So, people are running in every direction trying to work things out or staying still so as not to make things worse if they can't help and Trump is slashing regulations and I kind of expect the quarantine will be lifted soon and yet we'll get a vaccine and helpful medicines and new ways like 3-D printing to manufacture the machines you need for respiratory diseases and new ways of tracking disease spread and disease notifications and China will be talked into shutting wet markets and being clean around animals and then there will be fewer viruses coming out of China. I'm hopeful.
And, PS
also, I hope that if we are the CDC or HHS we stop thinking that if we have written a book whose title clearly says "Pandemic Plan" that we have written a plan. And if we are citizens, I hope we stop thinking that if we have seen a book entitled, for example, Pandemic Plan, written by "experts" from the government to help us that the book, of course, of course, has a useful plan or any real connection to reality. Maybe. Maybe not.
One problem with stimulus, even a worthy program that distributes money directly to citizens in need of it, is that it can't stimulate while we are forbidding most forms of economic activity. Whatever they're cooking up in Congress, I don't think we should call it stimulus. Maybe balm.
This plan was drawn up by peter quill, guardians reference, when asked if he had a plan.
Its a cook book, were not sure if we are the entree,
daskol,
I think it is the keep landlords solvent plan. And the landlords pay taxes and loans. So that keeps the economy from full-on collapse, is the theory.
But my guess is people will not pay the landlords. They will hang onto the money for when it's really important.
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