Nate Silver analyzes.
I was surprised to see this graphic at FiveThirtyEight:
Why does Pete Buttigieg only have 1 chance in 40 and why is his line going down when he just (I think) won the Iowa caucuses? Why did Warren's chance improve?
February 6, 2020
"Who gains from Biden’s decline?... Pete Buttigieg’s chances [of winning a majority of pledged delegates] are ... up, to 6 percent from 4 percent before..."
"... but even after getting most of the credit for winning Iowa in the model... they haven’t improved by as much as you think. That’s because... Buttigieg still has his work cut out for him in building a broader coalition; it’s going to require a big bounce in states and among demographic groups where the former mayor is not currently strong. With that said, Buttigieg is potentially quite competitive in New Hampshire, where our model gives him a 20 percent chance of winning, and that could give him a further boost. Buttigieg has a 9 percent chance of winning the plurality of pledged delegates. The gap between his plurality and the majority odds reflects how he might be poised to benefit from the field remaining divided between several candidates."
Nate Silver analyzes.
I was surprised to see this graphic at FiveThirtyEight:
Why does Pete Buttigieg only have 1 chance in 40 and why is his line going down when he just (I think) won the Iowa caucuses? Why did Warren's chance improve?
Nate Silver analyzes.
I was surprised to see this graphic at FiveThirtyEight:
Why does Pete Buttigieg only have 1 chance in 40 and why is his line going down when he just (I think) won the Iowa caucuses? Why did Warren's chance improve?
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154 comments:
Pete’s support has a ceiling. Only 2% support from Blacks. Two percent!
Talking economic nonsense does well.
His line was going down before the caucus. Now it will go up.
Cute caricatures of the candidates. Maybe Nate Silver will become known for them this cycle, 'cause his predictions haven't been as good lately.
Donald Trump.
Corn Pop. Plus a legion of young girls who don't like their hair sniffed by that perv Biden.
Bloomberg stands to benefit from Biden’s decline, both moderates. Bloomberg has just doubled his bet. Will it be enough to stop the Bern? Probably not.
While there many other factors (too many perhaps) Nate's model considers polling data from other state races, and the proportionality of the delegates won. Leading into Iowa Pete was only polling in the mid single digits and a I suspect there'a a time decay factor in Nates' model. Those together can explain his line 'going down' before the Iowa caucus...
As for after: Yes, he won Iowa but point one: despite the advertised strategic importance of Iowa Nate's is a quantitative model and weighs accordingly. The total number of delegates available in Iowa is small relative to later states and the total needed. Also, the other state polls available for SC and beyond are from late January and still show Pete in low single digits. It wouldn't be unreasonable to expect Pete's polling numbers in those states to improve off the 'win'(?) in Iowa which will be reflected in the model as that data is incorporated...
When will Biden step down? This week? Or After NH, with tears flowing in the snow as he ends his very lucrative political life? Will he try to hang on 'til after SC?
Mayor Pete (I still can't spell his name) and Bernie now in a statistical tie for the lead with 97% reporting.
And does anyone belive that the Dems didn't shave Bernie's totals to make "anyone but Bernie" look good?
Biden has had zero chance from day one. He ran to set up the impeachment charade. The serious candidates left to pick among are going to have to agree on who gets the nomination.The Dem's conundrum is that Tulsa Gabbard, who is the best one, is on Hillary's shit list.That gets them back to the CIA groomed fresh face and his husband.
I showed the ridiculous ways they calculated the totals from lulu freshat's review
Apparently they got caught giving Bernie votes to Deval Patrick so they had to "coŕrect" the totals last night.
among demographic groups where the former mayor is not currently strong.
That’s what Democrat media operatives call homophobes and racists in their own party.
"Biden has had zero chance from day one”
Anybody who gamed it out could see that he had nothing to offer the labor support that Trump has taken like so much lunch money.
"Biden has had zero chance from day one. He ran to set up the impeachment charade”
You give them way to much credit for foresight.
"Pete’s support has a ceiling. Only 2% support from Blacks. Two percent!"
^^^^ This. For the reason that shall not be named (here).
Still holding back 3% in "safe" districts to see how many votes they need to give Mayor Pete an extra delegate.
"Safe" meaning ones where the county supervisor won't squawk like happened in the Deval counties last night.
It's not clear to me that Mayor Pete actually won Iowa. At this point I am not sure we will ever know who won Iowa with any certainty due to both rampant incompetence and corruption, so I'm not sure "winning Iowa" actually means anything at all this year.
"Apparently they got caught giving Bernie votes to Deval Patrick so they had to "coŕrect" the totals last night."
DO NOT go the Milwaukee this summer. Bernie Bros are going to light that city on fire.
Pete’s support has a ceiling. Only 2% support from Blacks. Two percent!
...and Nate recognizes that: it’s going to require a big bounce in states and among demographic groups where the former mayor is not currently strong
Nate Silver uses the latest mathematical models and analytics to come up with predictions that are inevitably wrong.
He flubbed the superbowl, half an hour off!
"so I'm not sure "winning Iowa" actually means anything at all this year.”
Iowa is little more than a bloody shirt for Bernie supporters to rally around, at this point. It was such a major fuckup. Way beyond the app. This counting behind closed doors under control of Clinton operatives is beyond the pale.
...that are inevitably wrong
Probabilistic prediction models mean NEVER having to say you were wrong...
If Pete can increase his support among blacks exponentially, he can catch up with Trump. Trump is seriously after the black vote. People can roll their eyes, but they are his chips, and he is pushing them on the table.
Althouse pushing hard for gay Obama.
I would expect to see temporary spikes for several candidates as voters come to the realization that Biden isn't that electable after all. Last I heard Sanders had a big lead in NH. If that happens, Mayor Cheat's Iowa performance will be quickly forgotten and Bernie will quickly become the socialist flavor of the day.
There’s a think called ‘back test overfitting” which is why statistical models generally fail when applied to new situations without the most rigorous of controls, which are impossible given the limited size of the available datasets.
Feel free to ignore explanation of above: First you set aside a sample of data as “learning data” to tune your model, then you have a set of test data, which are samples of the same data from different time frames which you have segregated, then you test the model. “Oops, it’s wrong” so you go back and play with your test data, test it again: “Oops...” and keep going through this cycle until you stop getting errors. Well all you have done is to inadvertently incorporated your “test data” into your “learning data” rendering your model useless.
Here is a very good paper which explains why statistical models useless for predictions written by the same lady who came up with the bullshit 97% Consensus paper, wherein she explains why climate models are doomed.
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/263/5147/641
So basically, this model incorporates a bunch of not very testable assumptions come up with by Silver played out against incoming data.
Also note that the app was requested by Homeland Security for testing and certification as is all voting software.
It was not provided,
Buttigieg ranks low on the long term Democrat prospect list because of one simple (unstated) fact - he would get almost no black or Latino support because he is gay. The POC communities are just too "unwoke" to vote for a gay man - look at SC or any other state where the Dems bread and butter is the black vote. The black women that "elected" Doug Jones in Alabama would sit on their hands in a general election and Trump might cut into the black vote in a way that the rest of the Dem leadership isn't willing to risk.
But anyone going to call out these folks for their "regressive" views? Crickets here.
However, the Cool Kids don't mind that Silver's predictions are inevitably wrong, because he uses the latest mathematical models and analytics to come up with them.
Blogger Bushman of the Kohlrabi said...
Althouse pushing hard for gay Obama.
I wouldn't say she is pushing at all. But I couldn't help but notice from the graph that ONE candidate who she failed to mention did MUCH better in Iowa than the polling line. And we have other posters here saying Buttigieg won. By what reasonable standard? And once the DNC "took over" vote counting, how is it possible to trust what is reported?
Shades of East Anglia climate change model.
No matter what you put in, you always get the result you want.
Anyone who thinks Pete has any chance at the top office has never discussed the whole gay thing with their black friends. Just sayin’...
Just so it’s actually out there in the open, there is serious doubt about how much black and Latino voters will support a gay white dude. And it’s not like he’s shown much aptitude appealing to them so far.
Mike
Jersey Fled said...
"Shades of East Anglia climate change model.
No matter what you put in, you always get the result you want."
Bide(n) the decline.
To quote a Democrat talking point: it’s rigged!
Pete's record of failure in South Bend would be exposed in a general election.
Beast of England is correct. Do the "woke" folks in Madison actually understand their political brethren in Milwaukee? I'm starting to think they don't actually have any black friends...
Except of course the ones that were grifted into borrowing $50K so they can hang out in the Ivory tower through sophomore year. Then they can go back to Milwaukee.
Actually, it's the entire population of the United States that benefits from Biden's decline.
Regarding Nate Silver's graphic:
Better than No one is a high standard
If I were a Democrat running for President, I would be asking Pelosi what this whole impeachment thing was about. Her holding the articles up kept Sanders, Warren, Klobuchar, and Bennet out of Iowa. The articles themselves had America talking about Biden's corruption constantly.
SO that helped Pete, who seems to have won Iowa.
The fact that hardly anyone cares who actually won Iowa has me questioning how important Iowa really is. We've had candidates camped out there for a year, not doing their other jobs....and then poof! Who cares how it turned out?
The way the voting in set up has me questing Democrats supposed commitment to the popular vote. They say they want to get rid of the electoral college. But between Superdelegates and then this system, they really do want some hand on the scale when it comes to *their* voters.
Finally, Senators and Mayors are supposedly important people with hard important jobs. But they can take seemingly endless amounts of time away from those jobs to go campaign in other states. Which perhaps isn't even that important, since we see we don't really care about the results of voting from those states.
Maybe this is a good time to re-think the whole crazy election cycle. Especially since I believe it is the constant election cycle and the politics-as-news that comes with it that makes us think we are such a divided country.
Buttigieg ranks low on the long term Democrat prospect list because of one simple (unstated) fact - he would get almost no black or Latino support because he is gay.
Well, he's going to try to pander his way to the top.
Pete's tweet yesterday:
Trayvon Martin would have been 25 today.
How many 25th birthdays have been stolen from us why white supremacy, gun violence, prejudice, and fear?
#BlackLivesMatter
Such a moderate! Such a truth-teller.
JAC approved.
Real Politics says the Iowa count is moving away from Buttigieg for reasons I don’t understand.
"But anyone going to call out these folks for their "regressive" views?"
Obviously, only a racist would imply that peoples of color could be so uncharitable.
Why does Pete Buttigieg only have 1 chance in 40 and why is his line going down when he just (I think) won the Iowa caucuses?
Why would anyone think they're being told the truth?
Bernie Sanders won Iowa.
Who gains from Biden’s decline?
Just about everyone except Hunter and his prostitute.
Why did Warren's chance improve?
I think because she is in the top three and Biden’s dropping out raises the chances for all the other candidates, but especially for the top tier of the remaining candidates. If the “Anyone-but-Bernie” folks manage to prevail, she might pick up some of his voters (though I think most will not support any Democrat in that case).
Yes, I know that Biden hasn’t dropped out yet, but right now I’d say if he doesn’t handily win South Carolina he is over.
Interesting factoid pointed out to me yesterday. If Sleepy Joe Biden does win South Carolina it will be the only primary or caucus he has ever won in three tries for the nomination.
Why are so many woke liberals pushing for the butt-guy to be the nominee when's he's polling near zero among blacks?
If I read my woke rules correctly, and doing during Black History Month is double racist.
I don't know about Silver's analysis, but the rise of Bernie portends the decline of Mayor Pete because there are only so many low information younger voters, and they're mostly for Bernie. There just aren't enough technocrat worshipping clerisy class voters to compensate for that, and Mayor Pete isn't strong with minorities. At least, not this time around. Mayor Pete has a bright future, though.
Before we go off on the next poll hunt maybe we should look at past performance. What did Silver say the chances of Buttgig winning Iowa?
Query this:
If sexual orientation were no big deal to black voters, then why did Corey Booker wear a Rosario Dawson beard?
I see that a lot of people are accepting the spin that blacks and Latinos won’t vote for gay candidates. Perhaps they will, perhaps they won’t, but I suspect that if Buttigieg had done a good job for the black and Latino residents of his city, that they’d pass the word to others of their ethnicity that he’s a good man.
...the Cool Kids don't mind that Silver's predictions are inevitably wrong, because he uses the latest mathematical models and analytics to come up with them.
I've never understood that either. The way Nate talks sometimes he seems to be railing at reality for not conforming to his models.
Pete is just the latest vanity project. He's cute, he's gay. He's so non threatening to women.He's pro pro pro abortion. any facts about his tenure as mayor isn't, at this point, mentioned at all.
in short, Pete is another Obama. Popular because he fits into a nice little check box of what white suburban women think is cool and hip.
Like Obama, his policies are a disaster. But that is beside the point. He would be so cute with his husband 'in the white house'.
"among demographic groups where the former mayor is not currently strong.
'That’s what Democrat media operatives call homophobes and racists in their own party.'"
Perfect.
I would rather the choice was between Trump and the open commie, not the stealth commie, so I am going to vote for Bernie in Florida primary.
Ann: Although Buttigieg did well in Iowa, the fact that Biden did terribly helped the more viable candidates in the models for subsequent primary's.
More future primary votes are expected to move from Biden to Sanders and Warren that from anyone else to Buttigieg.
With Bernie becoming the new leader in the polls, it is less likely that people will continue to waste their votes on Buttigieg.
Exactly the low-information Bernie voters if Bernie doesn't get the nomination will vote for Trump, naturally
If my memory serves me, the reason for the first primary in Iowa, was to let a lot of stinkers get a chance. We now have a situation of more stinkers than eligible nominees. Not good.
That’s because... Buttigieg still has his work cut out for him in building a broader coalition; it’s going to require a big bounce in states and among demographic groups where the former mayor is not currently strong.
AND don't forget the video from the caucus, he also has to contend with all of those Democrat homophobes. Such a party of hate!
"I would rather the choice was between Trump and the open commie, not the stealth commie, so I am going to vote for Bernie in Florida primary."
exactly. About time we put a spot light on who the communists really are. and their list of 'accomplishments'.
I think mayor Pete just wants to be senator. I've heard tell that he loves big Greek architecture in Washington DC. It inspires him to Great heights
It's commies all the way down Auntie Trump you know that.
Yip yip yip yip
Wow, they really screwed over Mayor Pete and Bernie. Its like Iowa never happened. Everyone should be talking about Biden leaking oil after a sad 16% - 4th place finish. Instead they withheld the results.
"I would rather the choice was between Trump and the open commie,"
Be careful of what you ask for. Most young people have been brainwashed in liberal schools and progressive universities. Even the collapse of Venezuela had not slowed the rush to socialism.
why is [Pete Buttigeig's] line going down when he just (I think) won the Iowa caucuses? Why did Warren's chance improve?
Both candidates have started wearing a bustier.
"Why did Warren's chance improve?"
Warren is their best chance not to lose the Bernie Bros. She's controllable by the DNC. Bernie would take over the and remove the current corrupt leadership. After the 2000 election and Gore lost, partly because of the Nader vote, the DNC decided to court the socialists. They treat them like the RNC treats pro-life voters. The socialists are purposely trying to take over the party. I think we are seeing an Obama vs. the Clinton's battle.
Pete thought his resume would be enhanced if he demolished a huge number of dilapidated buildings in his city, so he did so in a rapid campaign that lacked any controls over the release of asbestos dust and other toxic chemicals, resulting in respiratory illness in the largely black community that was affected. But at least he got a presidential campaign talking point.
"Be careful of what you ask for. Most young people have been brainwashed in liberal schools and progressive universities.”
I am a little ‘d’ democrat. I wan’t the answer.
I know a lot of younger people, and they all have jobs, and are buying houses, or fixing up older houses. They do not want a fucking commie/socialist ruining their lives.
Why are they determined that Mayor Pete must be shown to be trailing?
It's a mystery. We may never know their true motivations.
"It's commies all the way down Auntie Trump you know that.”
Read their platforms, you tell me.
Bernie Sanders won Iowa.
I strongly suspect that is true.
I also strongly suspect foul play with both the final (unpublished) Des Moines Register poll and the Iowa caucus results. What a coincidence that "technical glitches" kept us from learning that Bernie was far ahead and that he actually won Iowa.
The Clintons still run the Democrat party, folks. They are bold and have no shame.
Oh, and Jeffrey Epstein didn't kill himself.
No mention of Bloomberg in the model? Seems like a big omission.
I think the impeachment clusterfuck was a torpedo aimed at Trump that sunk Biden, and this Iowa clusterfuck was another torpedo that turned around. It’s like the old joke about the guy who took a Black Lab with him into combat, and then threw a grenade.
The President who is called a racist every single day is going to be reelected by a substantial swing in Black votes. That's gonna hurt.
Spot on Auntie Trump. The Democrat Party is currently locked in an epic power struggle between the old and the Young. The young people took out Biden in Iowa with impeachment that's why I was hoping for witnesses that would include Hunter to deliver a more acute coup de gras of Uncle Joe. I wouldn't count out the groping Fox anytime soon he wants to call himself The comeback kid in South Carolina
If Mayor Pete is the candidate many POCs will stay home. SOME will vote Trump. Now THAT thought would have the left quaking in fear. Breaking the cycle of voting a straight D would be (to quote Biden) a big F'in deal.
Bernie? Nope, his ceiling is not high enough. But that's the rock. The hard place is the number of Bernie Bros who will stay home, vote third party of go nuts in Milwaukee. And I think that's true even if Bernie accepts the inevitable and drops out his endorsement (if any) won't salve his rabid base.
It would be amusing if Mike gets the nod. We HATE billionaires, they only got rich by screwing the little guy.... except OUR billionaire.
Your cheerleading is derivative bag of water. Auntie Trump knows what I mean
Good to know that speaking the truth about the general homophobia in the black community is “racist” now.
Orwell would be proud. But hey - gotta smear those that don’t use CorrectThought.
yes, a captain tupolev move, they scuttled their own boat, warren took some damage as well,
"The Democrat Party is currently locked in an epic power struggle between the old and the Young. The young people took out Biden in Iowa “
It reminds me of the different results of flood damage, depending on the city from Hurricane Agnes. If the city was dying, the downtown was razed and replaced with parks, if it was vibrant, it was rebuilt better than before. Biden was a hollow suit that couldn’t stand up to his first windstorm.
"Your cheerleading is derivative bag of water."
Derived from the truth. Secretly everyone loves cheerleaders.
The DNC (to stop Sanders) should announce that in view of the threat of the Coronavirus, they support an unity government and endorse Trump's reelection.
Q. "Who gains from Biden's decline?"
A. A nursing home in Delaware
I think “no one” might actually be a very good choice,
I hope his numbers improve.
As we just saw in Iowa, Mayor Pete's support among the people who tabulate the votes is quite high. (Every rounding resulting in a delegate resolved in Pete's favor over Bern.)
In the Democrat Party and Democrat states like Minnesota, the people who count and recount the votes matter more than the people who, you know, just vote.
Pete’s isssue is that he only campaigned in Iowa. He had no presence anywhere else. If he’s able to do well in NH, then maybe that’s enough to raise his chances. But, as if this moment, Iowa, and the debacle there, only helps him inasmuch as it opens the door in NH. If he gets beat bad in NH, I don’t think he’ll have a chance in SC.
As always, follow the money.
and the press except for fox, covered up commissar jurek's promise to go berserker,
buttigeg was the banker's candidate, deutsche, chase, Citibank, he split their take with warren, after gillebrand dropped out,
Pete was a failure as mayor in South Bend, a town dominated by left-wing loons. 20% of the adults there have to travel each day to Republican controlled Elkhart, Indiana for work, the police hate Pete, the blacks hate Pete, the schools are failing, etc. If it weren't for the presence of Notre Dame, South Bend would be in pretty sorry shape.
Pete would not carry Indiana, perhaps that's why he wants to throw his home state under the bus by abolishing the Electoral College
Who gains from Biden’s decline?
If it's a pharmaceutical company, please let me know the ticker symbol.
the tories had an insubstantial candidate, a legacy of the firm, all but admitted, his father was deputy chief of mi 6, he was in Indonesia, Kosovo, Afghanistan and Iraq, he ultimately washed out, they de selected him, and now he's running to keep sadik khan in power as a spoiler,
""You want to start out in national politics, as PRESIDENT son??" Lolol.”
Why would a kid who supposedly has an IQ just this side of Einstein want a job with no room for advancement?
Quick, become president before you have the time to learn that all of the beautiful theories they taught you in school, and that your commie Papa told you bouncing you on his knee, are wrong.
It’s like the old joke about how teenagers should “Move out now! While you still know everything!"
The whole debacle benefits Bernie the most. Mayor Pete is a flash in the pan and the rest of the field is irretrievable at this point. I'd be surprised if Sanders didn't win New Hampshire. But it will be all for naught. Biden will most likely win South Carolina, Alabama, Arkansas and pretty much all the rest.
Sanders went up to 50% chance of getting the majority of delegates since Silver wrote the article. Wow.
I see now why Pres. Trump spent so much time at the SOTU on socialism. He expects to (maybe?) be running against Sanders.
Warren and McKinsey Pete are competing for the Whine Cave Vote. Pete is nearing her there. The Whine Cave Dwellers don’t appreciate Warren’s socialistic overtures, even if they are insincere.
Also, Rich Whites feel good about voting for The Gay Candidate.
They voted for The Woman Candidate last time. And The Black Candidate before that.
I know it's off topic, and who am I to say. But I think Aunty's avatar beats them all.
And I wonder if Petey ran against Trump, who our moderator would vote for?
Why does anyone listen to Nate Silver at all? He got the 2016 election completely wrong.
Here's a crazy thought. While watching a muted Tom Steyer ad last night it occurred to me that given his less than slim chances of winning the nomination maybe he's in this thing so he can spend unlimited funds on the campaign attacking Trump and ostensibly helping one or two of the candidates that he would support? He hasn't got much else to do, I guess.
At least Silver is no longer claiming to be accurate to three decimal places!
He is as ever though misrepresenting his subjective (though model based) probabilities as objective fact. He is really consistently awful that way.
Public polls are manipulated!
My seat of the pants chance of winning ranking at the moment gives 4 of them a shot: Sanders, Biden, Klobuchar, Bloomberg. The others are running for veep or next time or ego.
So, blacks are not enchanted by transgender trendiness, and are not pacified by projections of trans/homophobia. Perhaps Democrats should lose their religion and forsake their diversity doctrine.
Citizens! Don't make Pete go back to working in the Studebaker factory.
It's not there anymore.
If he wants to pay his bills he will have to be the "Fighting Irish" leprechaun mascot.
I think Birkel is right. Sanders won the popular vote. He just didn’t win the most delegates, due to democrat party rules. Deliciously ironic really.
Picture Pelosi ripping up vote totals.
GOP voters wouldn't even consider a candidate with Buttigieg's flimsy qualifications. He would need to get at least 20 years of money laundering under his belt to get any traction at all with the red pom-pom set.
Why does anyone listen to Nate Silver at all? He got the 2016 election completely wrong
As I recall on election night 2016 ee pulled the plug on his predict-o-meter before it could be wrong...
He serves a political purpose- the appeal to authority lefties need to lend an air of legitimacy to their propaganda. It's true because Nate's math and science!!!
Rehajm
I remember Nate giving moment by moment updates on election night, to three significant figures. Malpractice.
"That’s because... Buttigieg still has his work cut out for him in building a broader coalition; it’s going to require a big bounce in states and among demographic groups where the former mayor is not currently strong."
I think they mean "building a breeder coalition", and that's going to take more than just a little bouncing.
He just didn’t win the most delegates, due to democrat party rules. Deliciously ironic really.
Democracy dies with Democrats. Perhaps they need a system to ensure that votes matter. Perhaps an electoral system, a virtual firewall, that preserves minority rights.
MadisonMan said...
When will Biden step down? This week? Or After NH, with tears flowing in the snow as he ends his very lucrative political life? Will he try to hang on 'til after SC?
There are two NH polls that came out after Iowa and in both, Biden's support is cut in half. But Sanders isn't the beneficiary, Buttigeig is. Biden is in danger of another 4th place finish.
There are no recent polls in SC or NV, but from the beginning to the middle of January, Biden's lead shrank pretty hard. He might not even win his "firewall." If that's how it plays out, then he is out by the end of the month.
If Buttigeig weren't gay, would anyone in the Democrat Party consider him a serious candidate? What if his gayness is as phony as Warren's Cherokeeness? Or Bill Clinton's feminism? Or Obama's Afro-Americano? Identity politics is Halloween for the Deep State.
Blogger Big Mike said...
"I see that a lot of people are accepting the spin that blacks and Latinos won’t vote for gay candidates."
I suspect there is a lot of polling and focus group data behind that "spin".
Buttuvwxyz did not win Iowa. He lost in both rounds of voting. I think, at best, he is going to eventually end up with the exact same numbers of national delegates as Sanders, but Sanders might win on that metric, too.
Watching the returns be dripped in is illuminating- it is pretty clear that the results have been manipulated to maintain the fiction that Sanders lost- leaving to the latest point possible those result most favorable to Sanders. This is why it has taken three days to get to 97% counted- they have had the count since Tuesday, but they didn't want Sanders to be able to use an entire week of victory speeches before New Hampshire. With Sanders almost pulling even with Buttuvwxyz in the SDE metric, they may wait until next week to release the last 3%.
Prediction, if Sanders wins New Hampshire next week, I predict there will be problems in that count, too, necessitating a week long recount that will be held close to the vest. The DNC has basically stopped making any pretensions of fairness altogether. The view Sanders as a mortal threat for some reason, and are prepared to do whatever is necessary to stop him.
Yancey
What an honest bunch would do is declare him ineligible, as not being a member of the party. A reasonable rule actually! But they won't.
Why did Warren's chance improve?
I think she finally managed to win Pocahontas county.
they are this not clueless,
https://twitter.com/ChuckRossDC/status/1225455454425436160
MadisonMan said...
When will Biden step down? This week? Or After NH, with tears flowing in the snow as he ends his very lucrative political life? Will he try to hang on 'til after SC?
Biden cannot step down.
Ever.
The whole Ukraine Quid-pro-quo narrative is based on him being a rival to Trump.
per DJT Jr:
Wow! They let Pete run around with a fake win for 3 days to screw Bernie, but you all know that was part of the Democrat’s plan.
So: With 97% of vote counted, Iowa caucus results are:
Sanders 44,753 26.5%
Buttigieg 42,235 25.0%
Warren 34,312 20.3%
Biden 23,051 13.7%
If no big changes in last 3 percent of vote, bottom line: Sanders won, Buttigieg did well, Warren OK, Biden bad, bad, bad.
"What? Me Worry?? About "rounding errors"???
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EQE9t1zXYAIYLjI?format=jpg&name=small
The impeachment drama fanned the radicals in the Democrat base into an irrational inferno.
That doomed Biden.
So Democrats have backed into a corner with unelectable candidates. They would have an electable candidate in that bunch if President Trump wasn't running.
But President Trump is running.
do we want to hear Mayor Petite's victory described as
... 'coming from behind' n??
Biden has to win SC- there are no other options for him. If he can't win there, he won't win anywhere other than Delaware.
I still don't see Sanders as the nominee- I think his ceiling of support is just too low, but here is the thing- with Bloomberg in the race spending unlimited money, and if Biden and Warren don't drop out after Super Tuesday, it is entirely possible that Sanders wins a plurality of the delegates in the primaries along with the popular vote. For me, this would be the dream popcorn eating scenario- the Democrats having to deny the leading vote and delegate garnerer to deliver the nomination to someone else. That would be hilarious!
why is his line going down when he just (I think) won the Iowa caucuses?
This is what they mean when they say:
Assumes facts NOT in evidence.
The democrat party will never nominate a gay man or woman. The first gay president, or openly gay one, will have to be a republican, and I'd nominate Ric Grenell.
AA states, "....Why does Pete Buttigieg only have 1 chance in 40....?" Because the Dems are going to self-destruct and the fix is in for Bloomberg - 'Mr. Big Gulp'!
Howard said...
Exactly the low-information Bernie voters if Bernie doesn't get the nomination will vote for Trump, naturally
More, Howie, more! More disrespect. More taunting. More bullying. Give it to those Bernie-backing jerks! Hey kids, the Democrats think you suck! You don't know nothing, otherwise you would vote for whoever Boomer Howie tells you to. So shut up and obey!
The Dude: It's like what Lenin said... you look for the person who will benefit, and, uh, uh...
Donny: I am the walrus.
The Dude: You know what I'm trying to say...
Nichevo
Shhh. Never interrupt your opponent when he is making a mistake.
Bernie does not want to win.
He has always had one job. Keep the Marxists in line. But they aren't staying in line this time and they feel their power.
If Bernie wanted to win he would be demanding justice in the Iowa caucus count and promising to go 3rd party if he loses. He could easily win this in a cake walk.
But he isn't doing that.
He does not want to win. He is in it for the payday.
Pope Francis calls for global wealth redistribution, takes lead in Iowa.
--Stilton
@Tommt Duncan (11:16), can you actually point to real surveys and polls? Or is this an “everybody knows” sort of thing, like heavy items falling faster than light ones in a vacuum?
______
* Yes, I know. 😏
Twitter thinks it’s funny that Sanders’ votes were redistributed.
From Slate, explaining why Buttguy's chances of winning are so low:
In short, Buttigieg is helping to consolidate the left and split the moderates, creating ideal conditions for a Sanders win. Meanwhile, there’s still little sign the man from McKinsey has a real shot himself. Even with his recent success, he’s still polling at fifth nationally, now behind Bloomberg, and hasn’t shown a pulse with minority voters yet. If he does somehow manage to knock out Biden entirely, it might actually be counterproductive. According to Morning Consult, the most popular second choice among the ex-VP’s voters is Sanders, followed by Bloomberg, and then Warren (this is your regular reminder that Americans don’t vote strictly based on ideology). There’s a reason that FiveThirtyEight is giving the democratic socialist a roughly 50 percent shot at the nomination right now, versus 1 in 30 for Buttigieg.
Aunty Trump said...
Twitter thinks it’s funny that Sanders’ votes were redistributed.
Are you kidding? Every person with a sense of humor thinks that's funny
well there is a crunchy irony, there,
Aunty Trump said...
"so I'm not sure "winning Iowa" actually means anything at all this year.”
Iowa is little more than a bloody shirt for Bernie supporters to rally around, at this point. It was such a major fuckup. Way beyond the app. This counting behind closed doors under control of Clinton operatives is beyond the pale.
All True, but a huge part of this is on Bernie
1600 precincts in the State. They should have had, and I believe did have, volunteers at every precinct. They should have uploaded pictures of the final results.
40 people who are capable of using Excel, or a Google spreadsheet, type in the results. At 2 minutes per precinct per person, an hour and a half after the data started coming in they'd have a complete view of what happened in Iowa.
Either Bernie didn't win Iowa, or he's incompetent. This failure is on him
Bootyjuice ain't gonna get elected to nothing. That gay dog don't hunt in the black voting block.
I remember Nate giving moment by moment updates on election night, to three significant figures. Malpractice.
That burns me. My eighth grade science teacher would have failed him with that kind of unethical error.
Greg the class traitor said...
Aunty Trump said...
Twitter thinks it’s funny that Sanders’ votes were redistributed.
Are you kidding? Every person with a sense of humor thinks that's funny
2/6/20, 2:17 PM
It is also "only fair", amiright?
Big Mike said...
I see that a lot of people are accepting the spin that blacks and Latinos won’t vote for gay candidates. Perhaps they will, perhaps they won’t, but I suspect that if Buttigieg had done a good job for the black and Latino residents of his city, that they’d pass the word to others of their ethnicity that he’s a good man.
Bingo!
Any person with a functioning IQ knows that, if you want to be a success in Democrat National politics, you have to have minority voters on your side. Pete was Mayor of South Bend for 8 years, and never got them on his side.
Either they all really hate gays, he hates minorities, he's incompetent, and / or he's an idiot. Take your picks
Aunty Trump said...
I would rather the choice was between Trump and the open commie, not the stealth commie, so I am going to vote for Bernie in Florida primary.
Nah. We want it to be a stealth commie, who then loses (because the "Blue Wall" will remain GOP so long as the Dems are anti-fracking).
Because the Democrats who want a non-stealth commie will go absolutely insane if a "moderate" gets the nomination, then loses.
2024, then we get the non-stealth commie, who loses, hard, to Pence.
Then, maybe, the Dems might be willing to jettison the commies
pouncing on the wrong party
https://twitter.com/ChuckRossDC/status/1225492293366538240?s=20
Ok. The dnc is openly changing votes in Iowa.
The people who run things never really gave any power to the DNC.
But this is out of control.
The only option I see for them is open violence.
DNC chairman Tom Perez calls for recanvas of Iowa votes.
Why do people think that a recount will be more accurate??
More likely, a recount is an opportunity to corrupt the vote.
If there is a big change between an original vote and the recount, then what? Such a result would indicate that the entire process should be thrown out.
indeed I showed the worksheets, that wouldn't pass muster in a high school math class, they tupolev'd themselves
"Ok. The dnc is openly changing votes in Iowa. “
Ahem, redistributing. These votes aren’t Bernies property. Property is theft.
Such a result would indicate that the entire process should be thrown out.
Better to just chuck the whole primary thing and let the DNC pick...says Hillary 2020.
And indeed Bernie won the popular vote by a lot, but lost the delegate contest
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/iowa-democrat-final-caucus-vote-totals-buttigieg-sanders
Will Buttigieg give up some delegates? Isn’t this like the electoral college?
So what happened to Klobuchar? It looks like too many of her bruised and beaten ex-staffers came out of the closet.
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