February 1, 2020

"It has always been ugly and a little nuts in our huge, complicated country. We last had a relatively stable consensus during George Washington’s first term..."

"Since then, right and left in the United States regularly vie for and lose power, frequently giving us deeply flawed leaders. And the world doesn’t end, even though it sometimes feels that way. As I grew up, I started to see the narrative pattern: Democrats were going 'extinct' in 1972 with Richard M. Nixon’s landslide. Republicans were 'finished' after Watergate and the 1976 election. In 1984, Democrats were really 'doomed' this time, wiped out by the 'Reagan Revolution.' Of course, the way Republicans are acting today means they will inevitably lose power, and for a very long time — an exile they will richly deserve. But neither party will disappear because the American center — that great lump of us clustered around the middle — always holds.... That lump is our national ballast. To survive, our two political parties compete for that center, forcing them to change as we do. They regularly miss the mark, which is why the parties, not the United States, suffer repeated near-death experiences, always followed by miraculous revival."

Writes James Comey (of all people) in "Trump won’t be removed. But we’ll be fine" (WaPo).

I agree with some of that, but certainly not the part about the Republicans inevitably losing power. That's a talking point today, I think, that the Democrats are losing in the impeachment trial, but they'll win in the coming elections.

248 comments:

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Ken B said...

He is NOT part of that lump centered around the middle. He voted for communists. Another self serving lie.

Ray - SoCal said...

2018 was more about the eGOP deciding they did not want a Republican Majority in the house. Lots of strange retirements. In California that Democrats did some tricks that killed Republicans, that I don't think the local GOP has figured out how to counter yet. The 2018 aftermath was a HUGE swing to Trump's vision of the GOP, both in those elected, and among GOP voters.

At the house level, the betting by contributors seems to be the house will stay Democratic. The Democrats seem to be doing a better job of fund raising, than the GOP. Plus there seems to be more retirements this year.

Senate should stay GOP.

Trump, unless a miracle happens, should be reelected.

Trump is doing an amazing job with what he has to work with. Lots of unexpected events since Trump was elected President. A huge one is he is keeping his promises.

What Trump has done with Deregulation, China Trade Deal, tariffs, not flattening Iran, New Nafta, surviving Impeachment, Syria, Brexit, deregulation, A+ Judges, and the discrediting of the deep state, success on reducing illegal immigration, have pleasantly surprised me.

Black Swan stuff is the Corona Virus, Boeing, Stock Market Bubble, successful major terrorist attack in the US, and Derivatives.

Narayanan said...

Thought:

Democratics could be trying out Theory :

no need for control Presidency - All power in Congress.

USA Constitution can be managed by lawfare.

Can Federalist Society put up fight resistance?

Discuss.

Ray - SoCal said...

Trump is making the US more business friendly, which helps the economy:

1. Reduced business tax rate

2. Making regulations more business friendly. Two recent changes that surprised me, and the emotional support animal airplane and HUD regulations are being tightened.

3. Increasing oil and natural gas exports, by fracking and more pipelines, easier permitting for pipelines, reduced time for environmental reports, and opening more land, and redoing the navigational water acts. Cheap Oil and Gas help the US economy a huge amount, and actually create more jobs that use oil and gas as feed stock.

4. New treaty / NAFTA with Mexico and Canada

5. Judges that are not so anti business

6. Deregulation - His 2 old for 1 new regulation was brilliant. I think the actual ratio is 21 to 1.

7. Withdrawing from the Paris Environmental Treaty

8. In process, but getting rid of some of the requirements that give us dishwashers that don't clean, washer machines that don't wash, etc.

9. Reducing the illegal immigrant labor force, that competes with the legal work force.

10. Stopping the China Postal to US scam. It was cheaper to ship an item from China to the Us, than within the US, due to the International Postal Treaty. That change happens in April, and will help a lot of US businesses.

11. Stopping the dumping via Nafta loopholes through Mexico and Canada into the US market. This has helped US manufacturing a lot.

12 Tariffs that are forcing businesses to move back to the Us to manufacture (I was anti Tariff).

13. Stopping China from ripping off the US left and right. This is huge. The arrest of that Harvard Chemistry Department Head was very significant.

14. Pushing back on the climate change scam. There were lots of regulations that were job killers, that did not help the environment much.

I wish more would be done on the deficit, but unfortunately the House and Senate have little interest on dealing with that mess.

Achilles said...

Ray - SoCal said...

Black Swan stuff is the Corona Virus, Boeing, Stock Market Bubble, successful major terrorist attack in the US, and Derivatives.

That stuff is all normal river of history stuff.

Trump is the Black Swan.

Drago said...

Leland: "How many jobs do you create at full employment?"

When millions of long term unemployed persons (who are not counted "officially" in the unemployment rate) re-enter the workforce, you create apoarently....millions.

traditionalguy said...

Trump is no swan. He is the Screaming Eagle.

Achilles said...

Ray - SoCal said...

12 Tariffs that are forcing businesses to move back to the Us to manufacture (I was anti Tariff).

This is the biggest change in perceptions on the right. A real free trade agreement fits on 1 page double spaced with 12 font.

Tariffs are taxes. Period. There is no difference between them.

If you tax things produced in your country at a higher rate than you tax things made in other countries you are committing economic suicide.

The US was the only country in the world not charging tariffs.

Fuck that and fuck the globalist grifters.

Big Mike said...

A couple of points for everyone to consider.

First, Comey is being ahistorical. From 1817 until circa 1824 there was only one party, the Democrats. This was called the "Era of Good Feelings." The Federalists had collapsed (1816 was when they fielded their last candidate), the Whigs wouldn't start up until 1832 and the Republicans not until 1854. In their inimitable fashion the Democrats then split into two wings -- the Jackson Democrats versus what had been the party mainstream under Jefferson, Madison, and Monroe. So, when Comey writes that "we last had a relatively stable consensus under Washington's first term," it's incompletely true -- we had a second one less than quarter century later when Monroe was President.

That one's a bit of a nit. The larger point is where I agree with Comey. We are not a 50-50 nation. Roughly 37% of us identify as Republicans, Gallup says that 44% call themselves Democrats, and the rest, roughly 20%, are independent. Neither party can win without winning most of the independents. But I think Comey is wrong in suggesting that "the way Republicans are acting today means they will inevitably lose power, and for a very long time." From where I sit, out in Flyover Country, it's the Democrats who are out of line, and more likely to "lose power, and for a long time." But we shall see, won't we.

Ray - SoCal said...

Thanks Achilles, very good point.

>Trump is the Black Swan.

I'm still amazed Trump won in 2016.

And picked up Senate Seats in 2018.

And has survived everything thrown at him by the establishment in the last 3 years.

And is still destroying and resetting ossified Overton Windows left and right.

Interesting thought experiment, is what has been the greatest surprise of the last 3 years. My vote would be the exposing the deep state coup against Trump.

The corruption and incompetence of the so called Elites (FISA, FLYNN set up, etc), has changed my world vie.

narciso said...


shirley

https://legalinsurrection.com/2020/02/cnn-condemns-trump-coronavirus-task-force-for-lack-of-diversity/

Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...

A Danes perspective on Brexit...
As we say in Denmark: There two kinds of nations in Europe, small nations, and those who have yet to realize they are small nations.

In the EU the UK is uniquely unequal. The wealth, income and real services not remotely evenly distributed among UK regions and with fast rising inequality among citizens. The UK bureaucracy is also the least effective among comparable Western European nations. It has very little to do with the EU, and leaving the EU will not solve any of these challenges for the UK.

All this talk about EU "bureaucracy" is a hoax. Yes, we democratically decide common rules and regulations, but they are not anymore "bureaucratic" than for instance US rules and regulations. The entire "bureaucratic" body in the EU is less than 40,000 employees for a population of +500 million.

The flawed propaganda concerning "immigration" in the UK is very illustrative. Refugees from the constant Anglo-American wars in the Middle East is not a EU matter but a matter of sharing the burden. Freedom of movement inside the EU is only for those who can get a work within 3 months, and there are other limitations too, though the UK never cared to employ them. The vast majority of UK "immigrants" are not EU citizens or refugees, but from the UK commonwealth."


Ray - SoCal said...

I wonder...

If Barr had been appointed back before the mid terms, and wrapped up the Mueller fiasco, would the GOP has still lost the house?

How much impact did Mueller's ongoing investigation have on the mid terms?

narciso said...

I think the chances were 50/50, they aimed fire at whittaker, calling in favors from the ftc, to rubbish him, 'it was the sword of Damocles' with fusion supplements, provided by dan jones,

Narayanan said...

Blogger Leora said...
For people who are distressed by our current politics I recommend a course of reading Gore Vidal's Empire series
___&&&&&+++++
I have not read any Gore Vidal.

How does he compare to Allen Drury? I have read some while ago.

Leland said...

When millions of long term unemployed persons (who are not counted "officially" in the unemployment rate) re-enter the workforce,

Well sure, but not at the rate possible when you had millions more on short term unemployment looking for a job, as was the case 6 years ago and just 3 years ago. The point is that job growth may be slowing, but only because supply is declining. When supply becomes less while demand is still there, then the cost of the supplied items increases and... Wage growth, particularly amongst the lower income earners is happening. This happy event could be destroyed in a moment with open borders.

narciso said...

Drury is much closer, as was the recently deceased Charles mccarry, from shade of difference on, he illustrated how the Dems were rocketing to the left, and he used walter dobius, who was probably modeled on lippman if not Cronkite to illustrate the corrupt media,

mccarry because he predicted a pro life pro American former businessman, who would challenge the establishment, what we would now call the deep state, in this world the company was disbanded in favor of the fis, an organization that operated under business cover in the third world, but still entertained their own private agendas, one such official howard hubbard, had recruited a prince of a country, that is unmistakably Saudi arabia, called hagreb, for reasons, in this nation, a fickle ruler, ibn awad had provided monies to a nihilist terrorist group, called the eye of gaza, which specializes in suicide bombings, this was written in 1979, before Khomeini took over, there is a left wing media contingent in Patrick graham, a left wing reporter, who is a conduit for the agency,

narciso said...

vidal was a left wing gadfly, on the same wavelength as norman mailer, but personally at odds, he was a critic of 'the deep state' if you will then, because it was against the soviet union,
but his criticism probably goes back to the founders, as you can guess if burr is the hero, then he moves on to Lincoln, which he paints with a dark brush, then the scandal of 1876, not the fact that the Klan had discouraged the black voters in those states, and of course, Empire, because of the Spanish American War,

narciso said...

Drury was a long time wire reporter on Capitol Hill in the 50s and 60s, that's where he developed his perspective, mccarry was an ex army company operative operating over seas in that same period, in an almost entirely wasp brahmin milieu,

Narayanan said...

Blogger wholelottasplainin' said...
Inga is an opera singer?

Whodathunkit
_____&&&&&&+++++
I vaguely recall she is ballerina who can jete while carry bedpan!

Not really. I'm Just being cute.

Seeing Red said...

I’m hoping the Coronavirus lets the air out of the stock bubble.

Birkel said...

Comparing European bureaucracy to American bureaucracy is pretty damning. Wouldn't it be nice if the United States, like Britain, could cut off so many regulations as Britain just did?

ARM thinks that missive is persuasive because he is a Leftist Collectivist.

n.n said...

12 Tariffs that are forcing businesses to move back to the Us to manufacture (I was anti Tariff).

Tariffs are a supply-side tax, useful to compensate for labor, environmental, and regulatory arbitrage that distorts market economies. So, we got the low prices, but also cheep labor, environmentalism, and recurring resets.

Birkel said...

Seeing Red:
There is no stock bubble. There are more dollars chasing fewer stocks. A lot of those dollars are repatriated. A lot are foreigners fleeing risk overseas. The fewer stocks are caused by buybacks.

minnesota farm guy said...

I hope Comey is putting whatever he got paid for this into the defense fund kitty.

Drago said...

ARM: "A Danes perspective on Brexit...
As we say in Denmark:..."

Shorter: those dumb Britons didnt know what they were voting for or why.

What a perfect "analysis" leading to the Brits telling their smug pals to sod off.

Reminiscent of Chief Dan George as Lone Watie in The Outlaw Josey Wales describing his trip to Washington DC where all the political leaders looked at the Indians dressed up in white mans clothes and said "ain't you boys civilized". Then later, Lone Watie relates how the President told the indians "endeavor to persevere"

"So we thought about that, endeavor to persevere. And when we had thought about it enough we declared war on the white man".

Perfect.

Seeing Red said...

bbkingfish said...
+$1 Trillion annual fed budget deficits as far as the eye can see while economy is at full employment. Manufacturing sector is in recession, while 2019 GDP growth just checked in at 2.3%. Job creation down almost 1 Million 2017-19 vs 2014-2016."


Did u have a problem when Obama doubled the debt?

Obamacare isn’t cheap.

Birkel said...

Obama ran average annual debt increases of 1.25 trillion.
Nary a word from the Leftist Collectivists.

Seeing Red said...

—-Slowly improved to what?

Over 90% of new jobs created after 2010 were PART TIME.

Real Wages were falling faster than manufacturing jobs.

Labor Participation was falling.

Every real metric was getting worse. The only ones that were improving were fake metrics like U3 unemployment.

We were on a path to economic stagnation. Capital was fleeing the country. Obama was telling us there was no magic wand.

You were just being gullible like Ann does when the media coddles her "normal" and "competent" fetish. We were on the economic road to becoming Europe under Obama——


How come no one ever talks about how the economy was distesting the 1/6 government grab Obamacare? How nant exchanges are still in operation?

What about the digesting of student loans? Talk about a fiasco.

Mark said...

His best chance is to pay all the money back immediately. Get a loan, raid the retirement account, sell something, but pay it pay now. And, although it is counter-intuitive to most people's thinking, don't try to minimize in hopes of getting off light.

If he's guilty and they got the goods on him, most prosecutors and judges will cut a guy some slack if he comes clean as to deeds and motivations, without making excuses. Try to minimize or deflect or play the victim, though, and that will only make things worse.

Seeing Red said...

—2018 was a referendum on Trump and 2020 will be more so.

So the American people want a divided Congress so Trump can't get all his policies through, but want the Senate in Republican hands, so that the Federal Judiciary can be filled with conservative judges?

2/1/20, 10:36 AM—-


Did you ever think the lessons of 2009-11 and giving all 3 branches to the same party was learned?

But after that House debacle, 2020 might get interesting.

Mark said...

An imagined Brits response to a Danes perspective on Brexit --

What the people of Denmark think about what we do in Britain is none of your bloody business. That's why we left.

Seeing Red said...

70 million fuck offs.

Gahrie said...

From 1817 until circa 1824 there was only one party, the Democrats.

Close..there was only one party, and it was called the Democratic-Republican Party. It was not the Democratic Party of today.

The Federalists had collapsed (1816 was when they fielded their last candidate), the Whigs wouldn't start up until 1832 and the Republicans not until 1854. In their inimitable fashion the Democrats then split into two wings -- the Jackson Democrats versus what had been the party mainstream under Jefferson, Madison, and Monroe.

Jackson formed a new party, the Democratic Party to oppose the Democratic Republicans who he felt had stolen the election of 1824 from him. This is the modern Democratic Party, who symbol is a donkey because people called Jackson a jack ass.

Anonymous said...

The movie Joker is prescient. The Left's abject, repeated failures and justifications showcase: American Leftists are completely insane. It is ironic the way DeNiro's character is killed in the end. Completely. Insane. How can our dear Author identify with these crazies?

Greg the class traitor said...

If sure the Republicans will lose the upcoming elections in 2026. because by then the Democrats will accept that they need to actually pretend to be sane if they want the voters to trust them.

Before then? They're getting smoked in 2020

Narayanan said...

Are prognosticators factoring in all the resets by Trump in world geopolitics and global economy?

Gk1 said...

Does anyone think it weird we are reading political analysis from a fired, disgraced, FBI director? The Horowitz report lays bare (at best) what a nincompoop Comey was (and at worst)a corrupt, political weasel. Neither are a good look. Are these periodical OP-eds he writes for Washpo some swamp way of pretending he is some apolitical, elder statesmen?

Narr said...

Why do ex-officials have to have books cleared, but they can apparently bloviate and blabber in magazines and on TV all they want? 'Tis a puzzlement.

Vidal was an interesting figure and a good writer. Some of the recent threads here put me in mind of Myra Breckenridge; Kalki speculated about a genocidal cult causing a pandemic; Creation (one of my faves) is set in the ancient world and one of the better such novels IMHO.

His Empire Trilogy is a good read, just realize Vidal was a bitchy elitist leftist and make allowances; IIRC the very first page of the novel contains this delicious blunder: he refers to Dewey's flagship as the Olympic!

Narr
Drury put me to sleep, the one time I tried

narciso said...

The golden age was kind of interesting, I eonder what he would make of trump, would be a principled lefty like taibbi.

Ralph L said...

I tried reading Drury, but it was so clunky, I quit after a few pages. The one Vidal I did get through wasn't much better.

Sammy Finkelman said...

Well, the Republican Party really was in trouble after 1934 or 1936. t the parties were too strong institutionally then.

Major political parties have gone down the drain n the past.

In the United States, the Federalist Party, around 1816, and later the Whigs around 1854. In Great Britain, the Liberal Party - substantially replaced by the Labour Party in the 1920s. More recently, many parties in Western Europe.

Sammy Finkelman said...

it was called the Democratic-Republican Party. It was not the Democratic Party of today.

It was not called the Democratic-Republican Party. A Post Civil war Congress used that name in its history.

It was called the Republican Party.

It kind of split into factions for the Election of 1824.

The Republican Party got its name in 1854. It was a deliberate attempt to use Jefferson's party's name which was still remembered.

Gahrie said...

It was not called the Democratic-Republican Party. A Post Civil war Congress used that name in its history.

From wiki...but you can get the same information from every US History book I've used:

The Democratic-Republican Party was an American political party founded by Thomas Jefferson and James Madison in the early 1790s that championed republicanism, political equality, and expansionism. The Democratic-Republicans became increasingly dominant after the 1800 elections as the opposing Federalist Party collapsed, and the party splintered during the 1824 presidential election.

There were four candidates from the Democratic-Republicans in 1824. Andrew Jackson got the most electoral votes and the highest percentage of the popular vote, but not enough to win outright. The election got thrown into the House, and a corrupt bargain between John Q. Adams and Henry Clay gave the election to Adams. This infuriated Jackson, who immediately formed the Democratic Party to run with in 1828. In 1828's Jackson's Democratic Party defeated Adams who was now running as a National Republican (which was not the modern Republican Party)

bagoh20 said...

The depth of the current divide does not produce much of a middle, The sides are pretty equal in size, but not a lot of people are undecided. The policy desires are virtually opposite, and the personality choices un-bridgeable. The only movement I see is toward Trump out of disappointment for being lied to and a natural respect for results among people who do reside near where the middle used to be.

bagoh20 said...

The divide is mostly created by the media. Just watch both FOX and any other network, and you can see how our political dichotomy is inspired, nurtured, and maintained with extreme efforts. I have very hard time using facts and reason to make FOX out as the more deceptive. They may be cheer-leading, but they do it on a much more fact-based platform, and are not afraid to let alternative voices get a word in now and then.

Big Mike said...

@Gahrie, as long as we agree about “The Era of Good Feelings.”

The way I was taught it — back in 1965 — Jackson split an existing party that was already losing the second part of the name “Democratic Republicans.” My time machine blew out a couple widgets that won’t be invented for another nineteen years so I can’t go back and ask anybody, and I don’t trust today’s historians to have the common sense to open an umbrella in the rain so no sense asking any of them.

I always thought that the use of an elephant to represent Republicans and a jackass for the Democrats was due to Thomas Nast in the 1870s, however it it turns out (according to Wikipedia) that the earliest use of a jackass to represent the Democrats was its application to Jacksonian Democrats in the election of 1828. That’s what’s cool about Althouse comment threads — learning new things.

If Nast could see the Democrat candidates in Iowa right now he’s appreciate how appropriate the jackass symbol really is.

bagoh20 said...

"The other day, Bag gave the best rebuttal to this stupid talking point that I have seen."

Thanks, man.

The national debt didn't really matter to politicians or voters all these years, even when it was actually fixable. Now it's beyond repair, so it's like arguing about an Earth-ending meteor, or the Yellowstone supervolcano. They are all just catastrophic inevitabilities that we will not address until they knock on the front door with a warrant. I can't care about stuff I know we will not do anything about.

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