From "National 2020: Biden and Sanders Battle in Two-Way Race for Democratic Nomination" (Emerson College).
In potential head-to-head matchups for the November election, all top candidates are well within the margin of error, President Trump trails Sanders 51% to 49%, is tied with Warren and Biden at 50% each and leads Buttigieg at 51% to 49%.Okay, what I want to know then is what's the gender difference in support for the various Democrats. That new Emerson poll seems to nudge Democrats to think they need to focus on whether they want Sanders or Biden. Let's say you're a Democrat and the main thing you want is to beat Trump. It's complicated to try to think about whether you'd want the Democrat who has more appeal for women or more appeal for men, but I'd guess that it would be better to go with the one who has more appeal to men, because there are far more males than females in the category of potential Trump voters.
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67 comments:
Another category would help. How many watch soap opera?
How is it possible that men and women think differently, in the current narrative.
Vicki Hearne does the sex difference in thought in _Bandit_ chapter 8, "Beastly Behaviors."
yeah, I was going t say what rhhardin said. Are we still allowed to talk about men and women thinking differently? Are we allowed to categorize men and women. Is there no asterisk to explain to us that they mean people who identify as men and people who identify as women.
Not all women have vaginas. Not all women hate Trump.
This is so stupid. It’s like betting on a football based only on win/loss without any regard for the strength of schedule. I guess it’s better than nothing, but still you are likely to get taken to the cleaners.
Why only two genders?
By this, I mean trying to handicap the race based on polls now, before the campaign even starts. You have to ask yourself whether Biden’s promise to the energy extraction industry in PA, for example, that he is going to take away their current jobs and give them new ones bolting on Chinese made solar panels is going to fly.
All of them have issues like this, they are saying things now to get the nomination, but there is no Etch-a-Sketch reset any more. This stuff used to be said in small gatherings without recording devices present.
Girls like pink, are pretty, and want to grow up to be princesses.
It drives me bonkers when I try to get something outdoorsy, for hunting, fishing, boating, whatever, the standard for women is:
Shrink it
Pink it
Charge twice as much.
None of them are going to have anything unique to say against Trump. Warren’s promise to go full banana republic and work from day one to imprison him is maybe more extreme. But this. goes to rhhardin’s point about women having difficulty appreciating the consequences of their actions.
Are they implying that there are 2 genders?
Wait for the outrage................./s
Can we get a comparison of the breakdown of men vs. women to the breakdown of practical people who look at results vs. feel good people who like pretty words?
Now presenting the most non-plussed graph in the world.
How come they NEVER ask me or my friends??
How come they NEVER ask me or my friends??
If they do, lie. It's better if they underestimate how much they have to cheat, like Hillary did.
I would think that devising a winning strategy would depend a lot more on the strength of the support that Trump has with each group, not the raw numbers of those who’ve responded with a simple yes or no.
Of course the real strategy which all politicians has nothing to do with reaching out to people who support the opposing candidate in order to flip them. It’s all about turnout, which means ratcheting up the outrage of their own base.
"but I'd guess that it would be better to go with the one who has more appeal to men, because there are far more males than females in the category of potential Trump voters."
My guess is the best stategy, genderwise, would be to go with the more persuadable of the two. In my small subslice of experience that would be females.
How come these polls have only two genders? Not woke!
How about, instead of pandering to men or women, the Democrat candidate be honest about what he or she intends to do, and what they believe. I have no intention of ever again voting for someone who holds his finger in the air to determine what he believes.
The idiots are producing Elizabeth Warren action figures and posting pictures of their daughters on Instagram sleeping with Warren for protection.
It's not likely that anyone who voted for Trump in 2016 will decide to vote Democrat. The Dems would be better off trying to appeal to their Lefties and nominate Sanders.
mockturtle said...
It's not likely that anyone who voted for Trump in 2016 will decide to vote Democrat.
IF there WAS someone, ANYONE, who DID vote for Trump (or, Even Claimed to have); I'd be personally interested in WHY they were NOT going to vote for him this time?
Please; IF there is ANYONE out there, that voted for Trump on 2016 (or, even if you just Claimed to have voted republican in 2016); Please Let Us Know?
WHAT Policies did Trump implement, that made you change your stated position?
WAS it all the Judges? Or, maybe the tax cuts?
If you could stoop to voting for the untested Citizen Trump; What is it about President Trump that breaks your support?
inquiring minds want to know
"How about, instead of pandering to men or women, the Democrat candidate be honest about what he or she intends to do,”
Ha ha ha ha! Good one.
19% of the fairer sex could use a good faradization and a vibratory release from their hysteria? I don't know what else to conclude.
How different would the country be if women were not given the means to vote? It's fascinating the contemplate to force it's been for the nation's leftward trajectory.
And the decline in marriage. Married women are more likely to vote Republican. Fewer married women = more Democrat voting women. No one really talks about the direct link between crumbling families and more Democrats/liberal government.
Appealing to men?
Well, since that's a politically fuzzy question, I'll answer as I perceive my male friends define appeal:
Tulsi.....
Oh,OK politically?
Men admire dynamic, strong men and dynamic, strong women.
This does not include male BS false bravado or screeching harpies TELLING us they are alphas.
"I am Asparagus!"
Biden's school yard taunts do NOT come across as he believes. Bernie has strong convictions, but many think he has a (very passionate) 30 percent cap.
Angry schoolmarm is not at all the sexy librarian image. And even the left is starting to notice Lizzie thinks "math is hard".
The tall billionaire, puleez. Dull as dishwater.
Mayor Pete? Uhhh, no. Cute little guy. Seems more reasonable than the nut cases. What are his accomplishments again? I might reconsider when he starts wearing long pants.
That leaves Trump (yeah, I know there are more D candidates than genders). Alpha male, was before he ran for office. Demonstrated during his campaign and for three plus years.
Mayor Pete? Uhhh, no. Cute little guy. Seems more reasonable than the nut cases. What are his accomplishments again? I might reconsider when he starts wearing long pants.
Few people are going to vote for a Presidential candidate whose name they can't pronounce.
Few people are going to vote for a Presidential candidate whose name they can't pronounce.
You mean like Barack Obama?
You struggled with Barack Obama?
mock: It's not likely that anyone who voted for Trump in 2016 will decide to vote Democrat.
No, but I suspect this particular sort of unicorn will make an appearance in concern-trolling election ads.
IIRC Trump's relatively poor approval with women mostly derives from a big difference between how unmarried women view Trump vs married women. Married women view Trump much more favorably. Maybe we should ponder why that is. "Women" is much too broad a catagory.
As a liberated (S]cientartist in an Empathetic Collective Of Global Citizens, I don’t see a mere graph.
Graphs represent data gathered in a process, in an attempt to identify and understand patterns in the world. These graphs should have predictive validity of some kind or, at least, be a place to rest your thoughts.
I see numbers AND purple shapes in a symmetry which resembles our Temple Columns at Peace Pavilion West.
We are about to radically transform Humanity into a genderless, raceless, borderless, classless Community, Equal and Liberated, away from the oppressor and into Earth Harmony.
"The symmetry of gender politics."
Or perhaps there is eventually some asymmetric chirality in every gender mirror image?
Chirality is a property of asymmetry important in several branches of science.
An object or a system is chiral if it is distinguishable from its mirror image; that is, it cannot be superposed onto it. Conversely, a mirror image of an achiral object, such as a sphere, cannot be distinguished from the object. A chiral object and its mirror image are called enantiomorphs (Greek, "opposite forms") or, when referring to molecules, enantiomers. A non-chiral object is called achiral (sometimes also amphichiral) and can be superposed on its mirror image...
Human hands are perhaps the most universally recognized example of chirality. The left hand is a non-superimposable mirror image of the right hand; no matter how the two hands are oriented, it is impossible for all the major features of both hands to coincide across all axes. This difference in symmetry becomes obvious if someone attempts to shake the right hand of a person using their left hand, or if a left-handed glove is placed on a right hand. In mathematics, chirality is the property of a figure that is not identical to its mirror image.
Freder, we have implicit bias tests which demonstrate in approaching The Other, say an African name like Barack Obama, you are approaching the boundaries of your Self and your own bias. This kind of racism can be cured, partly through activism and politics, partly through group dynamics.
PLEASE come and see us at The Psychological Human Resource Unit before you start typing so haphazardly.
For now: Level III Race
Say a secular protest chant or two, voice your Twitter support against evil, and go about your day.
BUT PLEASE make an appointment as we believe you are still a good person.
While not entirely useless, when presented without context this data is misleading for a number of reasons.
Is it possible to still vote for someone who you "don't approve" of? I mean, I don't approve of getting punched in the face, but I'd rather be punched it the face than shot in the face with a gun. As we've seen before, if the Dems offer up a weak candidate...
And "don't approve" is too unspecific anyways. You want to ask, "What don't you approve of?". Are these women are reacting to Trump's general borishness, his taunting and mocking of people who they may like, or do they have a specific policy that they disagree with?
Helpful Hint for Dem candidates. Your campaign platform consists of two planks. They are:
Tuck Frump
and
More Free Stuff
Would it be possible to get the two gender categories broken down a little further? I would propose the following:
a) Male, non-feminist
b) Male Feminists
c) Female, non-feminist
d) Female Feminists
I think the results would be "telling"...
That's super cute. Auntie Trump still thinks that issues matter to voters.
Another category would help.
1. Those who are close enough to be grabbed by Biden.
2. Those who feel they're far enough away.
I bring to you an Exchange between a responsible adult and E Warren. (not seen or reported on CNN)
Man:
“My daughter is in school,” the man said, ... “I saved all my money just to pay my student loans. Can I have my money back?”
“Of course not,” Warren responded.
“So you want to help those who don’t save any money and the ones that do the right thing get screwed?” he responded.
[The Hill notes that the man cited his friend who makes more money than he does and, instead of paying off his loans, the friend bought a car and went on expensive vacations.]
“I saved my money,” the man said. “He made more than I did. I worked a double shift, worked extra ... so you’re laughing at me.”
“No I’m not,” Warren responded.
“Yes that’s exactly what you’re doing,” the man said. “We did the right thing and we get screwed.”
LOL - Check out George Clintonopolis
Cut!
Blogger Michael K said...
“Another category would help. How many watch soap opera?”
It’s not so much that anti-Trump women watch soap operas as that they ARE soap operas.
Pussy hats, #metoo, free birth control, abortion, rape chants, infanticide, Christine Blasey Ford, Believe Women, Title IX assaults, etc. They aren’t adults. They are children in women’s (or men’s) array.
Rogan endorses Burnie!
Tweet-war between the white wine-moms, Burnie bros, broads, trans, various species of civet cats, and descendants of Powhattan currently underway.
If I could just collect the tears, I swear I could heal the blind with such a once-in-a-lifetime elixir.
Barack is actual arab its a legacy of at least two centuries of omani influence in the pre colonial kenya.
BleachBit-and-Hammers @ 10:02: yes! That exchange right there was the end of Warren’s campaign. She may run on momentum for a while, in the way a capital ship hit below the waterline by six torpedoes might take a while to sink; but she’s done.
The same attack can be made, if perhaps not always quite as brilliantly, on all the Free Stuff promises of all the campaigners.
Bernie the commie, or Biden, the deep state puppet.
Owen.
How dare the deplorables get a voice, tho!
The problem of vote-buying promises for cheap non-adults who expect others to pay their pay thru life - is that it isn't only Warren making that offer. I believe all of the D-candidate are making that offer. no?
Howard said...
That's super cute. Auntie Trump still thinks that issues matter to DEMOCRAT voters.
FIFY.
Men can respect Biden for taking on Black gangsta "Corn Pop" at the public swimming pool. But women won't like it that he formed a white gang of his own, adopting the moniker "Jack Cracker."
That is the sort of result that didn't happen randomly. Not a chance.
Masculine, feminine approval? They're people... persons, not merely physical and mental attributes. The Pro-Choice religion is an insidious philosophy with progressive effects.
Same as it’s be3n for decades.
Big Daddy will take care of me, no responsibility and abortion.
Joe will get morons like Inga to vote for him but not sentient women
Yes that’s exactly what you’re doing,” the man said. “We did the right thing and we get screwed.”
Just like housing.
And saving for retirement. You bad person, you can afford 2 loaves of bread.
These polls should terrify the Democrats. Just compare them to the hypothetical matchups from March 2016. I am starting to think Trump could easily win 52% plus of the vote which will result in 350+ electoral votes.
Nationwide polls are meaningless. Winning California by 20% or 2% is the same.
How's he polling in Michgian, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania...
"Okay, what I want to know then is what's the gender difference in support for the various Democrats."
That's available if you follow the links. Sanders and Warren are roughly evenly split male/female but Biden, oddly, is 71-29 female. The numbers on the others are meaninglessly small.
If you understand the female support for Biden then you understand something I don't.
doing a search for Trump approval in California, i see that as of September he was down 69 to 31. National polls should have a footnote saying that the national approval rating is misleading because California has 12% of US population and electoral college votes. A rule of thumb is that Trump is doing 4.5% better in national polls when adjusted for the surplus Dem votes in California.
I thought we lived in the Land of A Thousand Genders. Where is the polling results of the other 998 genders?
I mostly agree with you Howard, but elections are won and lost on the margins, that small slice of voters to whom the issues do matter.
You're asking me to believe a poll again. I haven't done that since November 9, 2016.
gilbar said...
mockturtle said...
It's not likely that anyone who voted for Trump in 2016 will decide to vote Democrat.
IF there WAS someone, ANYONE, who DID vote for Trump (or, Even Claimed to have); I'd be personally interested in WHY they were NOT going to vote for him this time?
Please; IF there is ANYONE out there, that voted for Trump on 2016 (or, even if you just Claimed to have voted republican in 2016); Please Let Us Know?
WHAT Policies did Trump implement, that made you change your stated position?
Being a Republican?
In 2016, i did NOT vote for Trump, because I believed him to be a NY Democrat pretending to be a Republican.
I was wrong.
In 2020, I will vote for Trump, because he's governed as a Republican President.
I can easily see people who couldn't stand Hillary, voting for Trump in 2016 because they thought he'd govern like an NY Democrat.
Besides, she was going to win, which meant that "voting for Trump" was a free protest vote against Hillary.
Now, i fully expect Trump to win in 2020. Because national polls, by their very nature, overweight voters from States like NY and CA.
Yay! Trump's going to lose CA by 25%!!11!
Doesn't matter, kids. What matters is how he's going to do in the industrial midwest. The people there who took a flyer on Trump in 2016 either got jobs, got better jobs, or are getting raises because of Trump's economic policies. They're going to vote for him again, and so are a bunch of their friends.
And all the pussy hats in the world won't change that
JAORE said...
Angry schoolmarm is not at all the sexy librarian image
Oh, my, I'm stealing that one
Owen said...
BleachBit-and-Hammers @ 10:02: yes! That exchange right there was the end of Warren’s campaign. She may run on momentum for a while, in the way a capital ship hit below the waterline by six torpedoes might take a while to sink; but she’s done.
The same attack can be made, if perhaps not always quite as brilliantly, on all the Free Stuff promises of all the campaigners.
Not so. "Henceforth, we will give free X to everyone." You can complain, but that's like complaining about a company cutting its prices after you bought.
"We will make school 'free' going forward" is very different from "we will pay off your existing student loans."
If you've been saving for your kids education, and now it's "free", you get to keep all that money you saved, and spend it on something else.
If you busted your backside to pay for school / pay off your loans, and now the grasshoppers who didn't do that get a cut of your paycheck to pay off their loans, then you're a chump who's getting screwed.
Two significantly different situations
Rabel said...
"Okay, what I want to know then is what's the gender difference in support for the various Democrats."
That's available if you follow the links. Sanders and Warren are roughly evenly split male/female but Biden, oddly, is 71-29 female. The numbers on the others are meaninglessly small.
If you understand the female support for Biden then you understand something I don't.
Sure. They're women who want the gov't to take care of them. To be their "husband / daddy".
They've bought the line that Biden can beat Trump, they don't think a "transwoman" (read: a man) should rank higher than them, and they think Biden will be "no drama Obama II"
IOW, LIVs who aren't on Twitter. Which is the vast majority of Democrat voters
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