August 8, 2019

"The Scary Proposition That Trump Is Gradually Becoming More Popular."

Headline at NY Magazine.

From the article by Ed Kilgore:
[F]ormidable number cruncher Nate Cohn... calls attention to something most of us have ignored since Trump took office: the president’s personal favorability ratings.... "Millions of Americans who did not like the president in 2016 now say they do. Over all, his personal favorability rating has increased by about 10 percentage points among registered voters since Election Day 2016, to 44 percent from 34 percent...."...

Cohn acknowledges that the odds are pretty good Democrats will nominate a more popular opponent for Trump than Hillary Clinton was in 2016, though nobody knows how she or he will compare to the president in personal favorability. I think it’s pretty important to remember that Trump won among the 18 percent of the electorate who disliked both candidates by a robust 47/30 margin....

From a longer perspective, my guess is that the narrow band of favorability and job approval numbers for Trump is just another testament to the partisan polarization that made it possible for him to win in 2016, despite his unpopularity.... 
ADDED: Another scary thing about Trump in NY Magazine: "The Owner of SoulCycle and Equinox Is Throwing a Fancy Trump Fundraiser." I find that especially funny. If you were relying on riding a stationary bike to meet the needs of something you like to think of as a soul, you deserve disillusionment.



I thought that picture would help understand the problem under discussion here. I clicked to that from "The Owner of SoulCycle and Equinox Is Throwing a Fancy Trump Fundraiser." It's an ad for Equinox that predates Trump's election, an ad discussed at "See Steven Klein’s Muscly, Freaky Fitness Ads," a New York Magazine article from January 2016. Doesn't it eerily presage the nation's "white supremacy" fetish?

73 comments:

rhhardin said...

Maybe it's a decline in the popularity of the media.

Big Mike said...

Cohn acknowledges that the odds are pretty good Democrats will nominate a more popular opponent for Trump than Hillary Clinton was in 2016

They could scarcely do worse, though Warren, Harris, and De Blasio are still in the race.

rehajm said...

What is it with Nates and their crappy political analytic skills?

rehajm said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Shouting Thomas said...

Bike riding season is 8 to 8-1/2 months here in the NE.

So, stationary cycling is all I've got for 3-1/2 to 4 months.

The presidential race can wait for another year.

Certainly, as the prof has said, articles must be written.

Mr. Forward said...

Pro tip: if you are fundraising on a stationary bike do not charge by the mile.

rehajm said...

Would he happen to have the name of this more popular than Hillary candidate? Is it one of the over two dozen on offer or a player to be named later.

He also leaves out the possibility its Hillary again. Clinton loyals have been making the talking head shows again.

Mary Beth (the commenter) said...

I'm not awake enough to click through. Does he explain why it's scary for people to like Trump or is it just a given that this is a Bad Thing? Does he acknowledge that an increase in popularity might be tied to job performance or does he think it's some random disaster like earthquakes or hurricanes?

rehajm said...

The ad is kind of sci fi, like a planet where everyone is Hanson.

Bushman of the Kohlrabi said...

You mean the Democrat's "white supremacy" fetish?

traditionalguy said...

Perhaps the great awakening has evolved by lateral transfer knowledge in Trump's Q operation.

tim maguire said...

his personal favorability rating has increased by about 10 percentage points ...[snip]...
Trump won among the 18 percent of the electorate who disliked both candidates by a robust 47/30 margin...[snip]...the narrow band of favorability and job approval numbers for Trump is just another testament to the partisan polarization


Does this idiot read his own work? Do his editors?

Maybe it's a framing issue. Maybe I should see his dedication to narrative in the face of overwhelming opposing facts as an admirable show of loyalty, which is a virtue. But no, he's an idiot. His real loyalty is to maintaining his readers' delusions even if it means continuing to lose.

Leland said...

Doesn't it eerily presage the nation's "white supremacy" fetish?

I don't know, but they could have used the same ad for Midsommar.

Peter said...

What the Dems and the talking heads don't get, other than that they are largely talking amongst themselves, is that for many people there is a big difference between liking a politician and approving of him/her. Asking "Do you approve of President Trump's performance?" is not the same as asking "Would you like to have President Trump as your neighbor?".

Ralph L said...

Kudos to any CEO brave enough to support Trump publicly, though I wish it weren't necessary to push back against one-sided corporate partisanship.

How does any man walk, much less cycle, in pants like those without constantly worrying they'll fall further? I say "any," but once we hit a certain age, we don't care who sees what.

Ann Althouse said...

"You mean the Democrat's "white supremacy" fetish?"

You figure it out.

AAT said...

That’s because the real reason the left hates Trump’s tweets is that they don’t get to interpose themselves between him and the America people and they know their arguments are unpopular. “No borders?” Really? "We are being too mean to China?” Honestly?
A .2 percent drop in people insured, when it probably represents a choice people made is more important than all time low unemployment figures for blacks and Hispanics? “Let’s pit the farmers against industrial workers! China promises to help! Europe and Canada too!”

These are not really popular positions.

Roy Lofquist said...

Ignore the polls. Ignore the analysts. Ignore the talking heads. Ignore this Nate guy, whoever he is. Open your eyes and take a real good look at what they can't hide, what they can't lie about.

Donald Trump is filling, overflowing major arenas week after week, every week, in the dog days of summer, in a year without an election. I have never seen anything like this. You have never seen anything like this. No living soul has ever seen anything like this.

AAT said...

They were handed the power in the form of control of almost all forms of media, and they blew it by trusting too much in that power. Abe Lincoln had it right and they are confusing the ability to fool some of the people all of the time with the power to fool all of the people all of the time.

AAT said...

Trumplemania!

wildswan said...

Eagerly trying to help the Dems, I propose this slogan:

Open Borders, Open Genders, Open Pockets - Any Dem 2020

With this slogan, it doesn't matter who they run so Hillary or DeBlasio or anyone really, (Any Dem, see) could pop in at the last minute when Good Ol' Joe suddenly has to quit because he sees Trump steadily becoming more popular and he's sick of all the winning.

Scott Patton said...

The ad reminds me of the casting of Jake Busey portraying the whitest crazy Christian terrorist possible, in the movie "Contact".

Mr. Forward said...

Is there any truth to the story a drunken Beto O’Rourke tried to ride away from a stationary bicycle accident?

traditionalguy said...

The Dems need to cast AOC as President. She has the Obama smile power. And to meet the Constitution's age qualification, they can just issue her a fake birth certificate like they did for Obama.

Mr. Forward said...

When Bernie Sanders was the Mayor of Vermont he instituted a free shuttle service for stationary bikes.

Fernandistein said...

"The Scary Proposition That Trump Is Gradually Becoming More Popular."

That's not true because it's not scary.

.. calls attention to something most of us have ignored since Trump took office: the president’s personal favorability ratings....

That's not true either.

Bob Boyd said...

The photo looks like a Swedish flygskam retreat than a white supremacy compound.

Peter said...

These are not really popular positions

With the possible exception of Pelosi, this doesn't seem to be a priority for the main Dem leaders and candidates, as least not at this point. The internal bickering and righteous positioning is more important. When one of the beautiful people, like Bill Maher, openly makes this very point, he gets swarmed.

After Trump won in 2016 and the earth stood still for the prog world, a few leftist journalists like the ever-astute and interesting Matt Taibbi wrote that the left was going to have to look in the mirror and ask themselves how they lost the support of so many they used to champion and assumed they still did. Then they were going to have to roll up their sleeves and do the tough, grinding work of winning them back. Indiviuals can sometimes admit mistakes and repent, but rarely crowds, and that spirit barely lasted a few week. Since then it's been non-stop self-righteous demonizing of, first Trump, then anyone in a MAGA hat and now more and more anyone who supports him. I assume they don't care about converting the infamous "Trump base", but I can't see how they expect to win over moderates and independents who don't particularly like Trump but who like the Dems' divisive extremism even less.

Bob Boyd said...

If you were relying on riding a stationary bike to meet the needs of something you like to think of as a soul, you deserve disillusionment.

It's true you don't get very far, but it's no worse than sitting in the lotus position. And it decreases the odds of your soul being separated from your body by a garbage truck.

Rory said...

"Matt Taibbi wrote that the left was going to have to look in the mirror and ask themselves how they lost the support of so many they used to champion and assumed they still did. Then they were going to have to roll up their sleeves and do the tough, grinding work of winning them back. Indiviuals can sometimes admit mistakes and repent, but rarely crowds, and that spirit barely lasted a few week."

They have to figure out how they ended up subservient to Hillary Clinton, which would also answer why they couldn't look in the mirror. Their problem is that if they faced up to that, they'd have to push probably 50,000 people out of political, academic, media offices, and disavow hundreds of major donors.

Jersey Fled said...

I get the feeling that the left reacts more to the strawman Trump that they have created in their own minds than the real Trump. They way they twist every word and action into the Trump that exists only in their own minds is truly amazing to me. Ivanka gets her daughter a white puppy and it is a clear signal that Trump (really strawman Trump) is a "white supremacist".

Incidentally, calling someone a racist has apparently lost its impact (suprisingly) so now both Trump and his supporters are "white supremacists". Look for more and more of this.

Otto said...

"Doesn't it eerily presage the nation's "white supremacy" fetish?"
Ann at her Goebbel's best. Note how she is cleverly associating Trump with the concept of "white supremacy" and "weird". She has repeated this meme quite often recently in prep of 2020 elections. Its called the Mamet principle.

Mr. Forward said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
gilbar said...

in 1980, half the country hated, and feared Reagan
in 2016, half the country hated, and feared Trump

by 1983, more and more of the country was okay with Reagan
by 2019, more and more of the country was okay with Trump

by 2010, Most of the country (including Dems) looked back on the Reagan years with fond remembrance
by 2046, The Dem candidate will be saying: "why must our President be divisive, can't she be like Trump?"

Annie C. said...

The first thing I thought of when I saw that ad was the movie Avatar.

Mr. Forward said...

Only Bernie and Beto survive the debate when candidates are asked, “can you ride a stationary bike with no hands.”

wendybar said...

It would be WAY scarier if any of the Democrats win.

J. Farmer said...

I love a lot of Steven Klein's photography. This photo reminds me of a lot of Bruce Weber's work in the old Abercrombie & Fitch product catalog from the late 90s and early 00's.

JPS said...

To the left, if Trump wins both an Electoral College majority and a popular majority, we are officially a majority-white-supremacist nation.

If he wins the Electoral College but with less than 50% of all votes cast, that means there’s a frighteningly huge minority of white supremacist voters. Since the Electoral College is enabling them to win, and not just as a one-off, it’ll have to go, more than ever.

Left unexamined will be the possibilities that (a) Trump is a racist but that’s not why most of his supporters support him; or, (b) Trump is not a racist.

whitney said...

People always root for the underdog. It's taken years to realize that a billionaire real estate developer is the underdog but people are catching on and since the media is 'the man' in this scenario, they're the ones responsible. I hope they choke on it

Peter said...

Incidentally, calling someone a racist has apparently lost its impact

Same with concentration camp, genocide, etc. Up here in Canada, the current high-profile battle over "human rights" is the case of a trans-gender type who has launched a legal complaint because estheticians refuse the shave his junk. This is a concept born in the horrific aftermath of the Holocaust.

Progs want words like racist to be expanded to reflect the rhetorical advocacy of BLM activists or professors of African-American Studies, but they want it nonetheless to retain the emotional punch felt by those who recoiled in horror at Jim Crow and lynch mobs. When they see that's not happening, they have to up the rhetorical ante with new, even scarier, words, because that's what professional activists do.

BleachBit-and-Hammers said...

There you have it folks. The left's totalitarian road map.

You're all racists, and the constitution must be destroyed so that the left can grab ultimate power over you.

BleachBit-and-Hammers said...

"white supremacist" is the new "racist"

Danno said...

Doesn't it eerily presage the nation's "white supremacy" fetish?

Maybe the ad shoot was done in Scandinavia by locals. (pre-Muslim invasion)

Michael K said...

White Supremacist is the fall back since Mueller was not the lethal blow expected.

Keep reading Extraordinary popular delusions and the madness of crowds, Maybe it will be explained in the next chapter,

Meanwhile, Oberlin college is in a death watch on Mr Gibson, hoping he will died before they have to pay up.

Phidippus said...

Nate Cohn: "...Cohn acknowledges that the odds are pretty good Democrats will nominate a more popular opponent for Trump than Hillary Clinton was in 2016..."

Probably true, but it won't be for lack of trying.

BleachBit-and-Hammers said...

America Is Drowning in the Left's Lies About Trump

Big Mike said...

Doesn't it eerily presage the nation's "white supremacy" fetish?

No. And, as others have pointed out, "the nation" is manifestly not caught up in a "white supremacy fetish." It's the latest cynical effort on the part of the Democrats and their smarmy allies in the media to shame Americans out of supporting Donald Trump. Won't work with real human beings, though perhaps it works with people who live in deep blue cities and drink the Kool Aid.

Big Mike said...

Speaking of polls, I have read that Harris polls in the single digits among black women. Can anyone confirm this with a link to real poll? So much for identity politics being more important than your actions in office.

John henry said...

I think the really scary thing is the erosion of black support. I think that's the reason for the heavy emphasis on RACISM!!!

I suspect blacks are even more scared than whites to admit that they like him. But every week we see another black like Charles Barkley say good things about him. Things that make it sound like he might even vote Trump.

How many blacks now working realize that they owe their jobs to the Trump economy? I suspect a lot will show their gratitude in their vote.

Nobody talks about this because to do so would tell others that it's OK to leave the plantation.

John Henry

John henry said...

Scary to the "deep thinkers" at ny mag etc.

Not to me and other true Americans

John Henry

John henry said...

Big Mike,

Don't know about black women specifically but Quinnipiac showed that Harris' support among blacks overall dropped from 27% up 1-2% her tulsi cut her head off in the debate ladt week.

Maybe American blacks are realizing that she has nothing,absolutely nothing, in common with them.

Has spent her political life harassing them as a prosecutor.

Just barely the same color.

John Henry

Marc said...

"Of course, Democrats might benefit from a more popular candidate than they had in 2016."

Never let it be said that pollsters don't have a sense of humor.

n.n said...

We are conceived with a color bias. We progress with a color prejudice. Diversity breeds adversity.

The Cracker Emcee Refulgent said...

The photo looks like a lost UFO album cover.

"Cohn acknowledges that the odds are pretty good Democrats will nominate a more popular opponent for Trump than Hillary Clinton was in 2016,"

Not to pile on, but I like to celebrate absurdity. I just can't wait to see who this paragon will be.

doctrev said...

Gee, how did the most ADMIRED woman in America do against one of its most unpopular men? Remind me again. The manifold weaknesses of feminist ideology, it seems.

By the way, this is also why Michelle Obama isn't dumb -enough- to take on Trump. She knows that Most Admired Woman is a poisoned chalice, and has no intent of grasping it when she can enjoy a very wealthy life without spending a year of intense humiliation on a futile quest.

Char Char Binks said...

"The photo looks like a lost UFO album cover."

Yes, it's clearly a play on the "Tall White Alien" joke theory.

Wilbur said...

The individual who is hosting the fund-raiser for President Trump also happens to own the Miami Dolphins. One of the Dolphin players (Kenny Stills) is having a shitfit over this. He was also one of the anthem kneelers.

Michael K said...

One of the Dolphin players (Kenny Stills) is having a shitfit over this. He was also one of the anthem kneelers.

The solution is obvious. Give up his million dollar contract and join Kaepernick among the unemployed.,

Michael K said...

Harris' support among blacks overall dropped from 27% up 1-2% her tulsi cut her head off in the debate ladt week.

Remember that they did not support Obama until he was going to win. Harris is not very "authentic." Much less than the hated Thomas or Carson.

Francisco D said...

Harris' support among blacks overall dropped from 27% up 1-2% her tulsi cut her head off in the debate ladt week.

Harris is not African-American. She is Indian and Jamaican. Many immigrants from those countries despise American Blacks and they know it.

Her support base is White liberals, just like Obama. The political kingmakers in Chicago taught him to reach out to the Black Community (e.g., embrace Reverend Wright). He was trounced in his first election in a mostly Black district.

Craig Howard said...

there is a big difference between liking a politician and approving of him/her

Liberals I’ve known seem to adore their party’s candidates no matter what they have or haven’t accomplished. Hillary accomplished virtually nothing during her political and diplomatic careers, but it was never talked about. It seemed not to matter.

In a similar vein, I once had a long discussion with a liberal friend about Trayvon Martin and George Zimmerman. I laid out the facts of the case — I thought Zimmerman was justified in shooting — and, of course, she was completely unconvinced.

Several weeks later, Zimmerman was in the news for some dunderhead move and she asked me what I thought of my “friend” now.

It dawned on me that her attachment to Martin was almost personal; she admired him. I really never cared about Zimmerman one way or the other as a person. Just thought he was justified in defending himself in that one situation. Very odd.

narciso said...

Because the first impression sticks, the way ABC NBC and the times along with the Atlantic nor first presented the story, the correction never caught up.

Yancey Ward said...

Right-leaning third party candidates won about 4% of the vote nationally and upwards of 6% in several true swing states. Left-leaning 3rd party candidates won about 1% when they were on the ballot.

What you are seeing in those changes in Trump's favor is the complete collapse of the NeverTrump wing of the Republican Party. Just to give you an example of how this effected the 2016 race- in 2012, the right leaning 3rd parties only won 1% of the vote nationwide and the left-leaning 3rd parties were at 0.3%. My prediction for Trump is that the 3rd parties will return to their 2012 numbers of 1% right leaning and 0.3% left leaning. This will give Trump a boost of at least 2% vs the Democrat candidate regardless of who it is. Indeed, given the incumbency and the withering of the right leaning 3rd party vote, Trump will likely win states like Virginia, New Hampshire, Nevada, and maybe even Colorado. He easily hang on to the midwest states, too, though he wouldn't have to if he picked up the more natural swing states he lost in 2016.

Of course, if the election is run during a recession, the incumbency won't be a benefit and he would likely lose.

EDH said...

The Cracker Emcee Refulgent said...
The photo looks like a lost UFO album cover.

Those album covers were done by Hipnosis.

http://www.hipgnosiscovers.com/ufo.html

Ignatius Acton Chesterton OCD said...

"Cohn acknowledges that the odds are pretty good Democrats will nominate a more popular opponent for Trump than Hillary Clinton was in 2016, though nobody knows how she or he will compare to the president in personal favorability."

This is an idiotic statement.

Considering the current Democrat field -- which is angry, has no vision, and is humorless -- how are the odds "pretty good" that they will nominate a "more popular opponent"? Based on what data?

The most important part of this silly sentence: "... nobody knows..."

rcocean said...

sorry, 47% of the country voted for fucking Hillary Clinton. These D voters are brain-dead losers and will vote for ANY D in 2020. They will vote for Bernie, Biden, Warren, or Harris. They'd even vote for De Blasio.

We will be incredibly lucky to beat them.

Gahrie said...

Has anyone else noticed that the political Left and the MSM in the UK are saying exactly the same things about the Brexiters that the political Left and the MSM are saying about those on the Right here in the U.S.?

Gahrie said...

These D voters are brain-dead losers and will vote for ANY D in 2020.

Well, to be fair, many of them are literally dead.

Michael said...

And why shouldn't Trump be becoming more popular? People's lives are improving up and down the economic scale. And the American people (those who are not insufferable prigs of the Progressive or the NeverTrump variety) are coming to realize that Trump's affect - boisterous and provocative - is an act, which has considerable entertainment value as well as being effective politics. At a minimum, people notice that despite all the screaming of the NYT, WaPo, CNN, the Atlantic, the New Yorker, etc., no apocalypse has occurred nor can any be seen on the horizon.

Grand Beagle Fen said...

I think the problem is the media has had a "dampening effect" on Trump's popularity. More and more, as their bias and outright lies are exposed, the effect is lifted. And besides that, they couldn't dampen him forever. Romney or Bush maybe, but not a fighter like Trump.

Rush was on today and one of his key takeaways was that polling is revealing Trump has not yet peaked re support. He has room to get even higher approval ratings.

It's a deceptive stat anyway with someone like Trump. How many voters would choose: "I don't like him personally but I admit he is getting it done the way I wanted". I know I'm one. I sometime wish he would back off on Twitter, but I'm tired of Republicans always erring on the side of caution. If overplaying his hand now and then is the cost of being aggressive, so be it.

Go for the ball. If you don't inncur at least 4 fouls then you aren't really trying and should be benched with Romney and McCain and French and all the other losers who are more concerned with Surrendering Gracefully than representing our interests.

Grand Beagle Fen said...

is just another testament to the partisan polarization

Right. In NYC, posters are being circulated calling for Trump supporters to be sent to Death Camps.

"both sides"

I guess our skirt was too short, we were asking for it.

Grand Beagle Fen said...

Now would be a good time for inconography like this

TRUMP 2020 across the top

AMERICA FIRST across the bottom