August 26, 2019

"The poll finds a virtual three-way tie among Sanders (20%), Warren (20%), and Biden (19%) in the presidential nomination preferences of registered Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters across the country."

Monmouth reports.
Compared to Monmouth’s June poll, these results represent an increase in support for both Sanders (up from 14%) and Warren (up from 15%), and a significant drop for Biden (down from 32%). Results for the rest of the field are fairly stable compared to two months ago. These candidates include California Sen. Kamala Harris at 8% support (identical to 8% in June), New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker at 4% (2% in June), South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg at 4% (5% in June)....

Biden... lost ground with white Democrats (from 32% to 18%) and voters of color (from 33% to 19%), among voters without a college degree (from 35% to 18%) and college graduates (from 28% to 20%), with both men (from 38% to 24%) and women (from 29% to 16%), and among voters under 50 years old (from 21% to 6%) as well as voters aged 50 and over (from 42% to 33%). Most of Biden’s lost support in these groups shifted almost equally toward Sanders and Warren....
MEANWHILE:

UPDATE, the next morning: There's a new political poll from Politico that shows nothing of this new 3-way tie development. Biden's way ahead, as usual (with 33%), Sanders is firmly in second place (with 20%), and Warren is a solid third (with 15%).

90 comments:

Peter said...

Not buying this at all.

Bay Area Guy said...

"I want to be clear, I’m not going nuts."

We will know this is true, if Biden returns to his healthy habit of sniffing women's hair.

readering said...

Your lips to God's ears (not that I like either of them).

wildswan said...

Pathetic. But I don't think Biden is crazy; he's just older and not up to being rushed around to event after event. He gets tired easily. He's still the best candidate the Dems have. Although he'll lose, so will anyone else.

Mike Sylwester said...

Biden... lost ground with ... voters of color (from 33% to 19%)

Biden's key strategy is to win the colored voters.

Harris upset that strategy when she revealed that Biden tried to prevent her from attending an integrated school when she was a little girl.

Biden is supposed to be making the racism accusations against his political opponents. It was not supposed to happen that his political opponents made racism accusations against him.

JPS said...

"I want to be clear, I'm not going nuts."

If you have to say that, you've lost.

"I know - I just want to hear the sonofabitch deny it."

madAsHell said...

When did Joe Biden morph into Rodney Dangerfield?

mccullough said...

Looks like Trump is moving the pawns around.

tim maguire said...

Wasn't “Let me be clear” Obama’s catch phrase for when he was about to lie?

Drago said...

LLR's everywhere (who dream of "dream-perfect economies") hardest hit.

The great news for Biden? In about 15 minutes he wont remember this poll...

Mike Sylwester said...

Correction to my comment at 4:53 PM

I inadvertently wrote the expression colored voters.

I meant to write Voters of Color.

Please make the mental correction.

readering said...

Weird

Hagar said...

"There's a rumor Grandma Death may rise from the crypt."

I take this to be a reference to Hillary! Clinton. She may turn out to be the Democrats' best bet in the end.

traditionalguy said...

He's already gone. Scott Adams wants the Dems to invoke the mercy rule. But I want to see Lizzie scalp him and whoop and holler waiving his bloody hair. No Surrender Warren has the nomination won.

pacwest said...

I think Biden would have been Trump's easiest opponent in 2020. A majority of the Bernie Bros would have set the election out with Biden as the nominee. They may back Warren though, and she may be able to hold the middle. Bernie can't do that. Warren seems to be the Dems best chance, but she will have to tack back to the center in the general very carefully.

Bay Area Guy said...

It's a razor close race. Senator Warren has barely edged ahead by 1/1024 of a percentage point.

Jim at said...

"I want to be clear, I’m not going nuts."

Well, technically he's correct.

Bay Area Guy said...

I ask again, Is it better to have a confused, besieged, not yet crazy Biden limp across the DNC finish line in July 2020, or Senator Paleface?

mccullough said...

The Socialist New England Senators.

Ingachuck'stoothlessARM said...

tapping on the water bottle to see if it was on, Dem candidate Biden
cleared his throat, leaned towards it, and assured us he's not nuts.

just senile.

Dave Begley said...

China Joe not going nuts; just senile.

He was in New Hampshire last week and said he was happy to be in Vermont. Vermont.

This is embarrassing.

Watch the vultures pounce at the next debate. KH and CB will have their claws out. Maybe Mayor Pete too. "Old man take a look at your life."

The Cracker Emcee Refulgent said...

Hopefully Joe can manage it. Warren will be a tougher opponent.

Skeptical Voter said...

Well shucks--looks like a troika is in the lead. Ms. Harris, Spartacus and Booty Gig hurt worst. Beto is so far back in the dust that the can't be seen. Still it's a long way to November 2020. Biden may need to be put in a strait jacket by then.

AllenS said...

I was very wrong to think that Biden was inevitable.

Bay Area Guy said...

Maybe, Biden can try to cop a feel of Kammy at the next debate, and then claim elderly confusion.

Ingachuck'stoothlessARM said...

and a significant drop for Biden

"I've Fallen & I Cant Get Up"

He's cranking out about a gaffe per day. 14 more MONTHS to go--
do the math--he wont recover.

The Godfather said...

Biden made the right decision not to run in 2016, but that was his best shot at the presidency. As for 2020? No, he's not really a moderate, but he's played one on TV for decades, and there's nobody else (no credible candidate) who can make a plausible claim to being a moderate Democrat. And that's what the Democrats need to win.

Think about that. In today's Democrat Party, would Truman have a chance of getting the nomination? ANY Kennedy? Johnson? Carter? Bill Clinton? Hillary Clinton?

I still think Michelle Obama is their best hope (and only if she runs a silent campaign (i.e., appears only on Oprah and The View).

Bay Area Guy said...

@Begley,

Your next question at a Democrat forum:

"Please raise your hand if you are NOT insulted, irritated, angered or confused by the Early Bird Dinner Menu at Denny's?"

JackWayne said...

Clearing the way for Hillary. Is there a Deadpool on when the first poll will emerge comparing her to these three?

Drago said...

The Godfather: "I still think Michelle Obama is their best hope (and only if she runs a silent campaign (i.e., appears only on Oprah and The View)."

Ive been saying this since January.

Sebastian said...

It's too bad that Slow Joe is too slow. He would have been easy to beat, and if not, he would have been the one Dem not to hate non-Dem America.

Lizzie actually has brains, though no charm. She will be an easy second choice for the Sanders acolytes. Unless someone else makes inroads with minorities, she can cruise.

Question for Althouse: you say you want someone ethical, competent, and hard-working, who expresses American values. Let's grant the hard-working. Do you believe that Warren is ethical, competent, and faithful to American values?

n.n said...

Reports of DNC's Choice were premature. They're still viable.

Bill Peschel said...

The Godfather: "I still think Michelle Obama is their best hope (and only if she runs a silent campaign (i.e., appears only on Oprah and The View)."

Oh I hope so, if only to see Trump tweet that the Democrats are following George Wallace's strategy when he ran his wife for governor of Alabama.

The heads exploding over that will rival the end of "Kingsman."

Arashi said...

So a senile old man, a 1/1024th Native American and a communist walk into a bar..

It sounds like a skit idea for SNL back when it was funny, not the three front runners for the Democrats for the 2020 Presidential run.

Does anyone else get the feeling that they are trapped in a never ending Twilight Zone episode?

Drago said...

Arashi: "So a senile old man, a 1/1024th Native American and a communist walk into a bar..

It sounds like a skit idea for SNL back when it was funny, not the three front runners for the Democrats for the 2020 Presidential run."

There is much speculation that up until last week the Chinese believed Biden would be the nominee and could easily defeat Trump.

With LLR Chuck's beloved Biden collapsing like a wet noodle suddenly the Chinese are making nice guy noises again.

Looks like someone in Beijing is reevaluating Trump's improving reelection prospects....(which also explains LLR Chuck's transparent flop sweat desperation)...

rcocean said...

If you've listened to a rambling Joe Biden "interrogation" of Bork, Thomas, or Alioto, you know that Joe isn't going Senile. He's just as stupid as he ever was. "Slow Joe" has always been protected by the MSM, and his prior runs for the POTUS were cut-off due to gaffes, plagiarism, and lack of interest. This is the "real Joe". Exposed to the national spotlight, with the other D's attacking him, not protecting him.

Bay Area Guy said...

"So a senile old man, a 1/1024th Native American and a communist walk into a bar.."

Heh!

You could do this for the second tier too:

So, an obscure gay Mayor, a Jamaican fellatio specialist and an Irish Mexican from Texas walk into a bar.....

rcocean said...

I'm rooting for Bernie but doubt he can get nominated.

rcocean said...

Bernie's big mistake? Not marrying Oprah.

Drago said...

rcocean: "I'm rooting for Bernie but doubt he can get nominated."

Why should the dems let him get the nomination? He already proved he would curl up in a ball and surrender the last time around.

walter said...

Warren offers a return to the bleating scold and not Obama's wet blanket, but a lead one.
Plans!

Mark said...

Sixty percent for privileged white dinosaurs.

This is what the Democrat Party looks like.

Yancey Ward said...

That Biden was forced to say that means it is already over for him. I expect in the September debates that the other candidates will make this a big issue and finish Biden off. I don't think he even makes it to New Hampshire.

David Begley said...

These jokes are hilarious.

Ingachuck'stoothlessARM said...

"My giraffes?!? C'mon, Man! I dont even have any giraffes !!"

Mark said...

To all of you bad-mouthing Joe Biden -- Shut up.

He's a lot better than all of you combined.

Like he said himself, “I think I have a much higher I.Q. than you do I suspect. I went to law school on a full academic scholarship – the only one in my class to have a full academic scholarship.” -- April 3, 1987

I remember it like it was yesterday.

stevew said...

All he had to do was not fuck up, and he fucked up. He campaigned way more than he had to in an attempt to disprove Trump's "Sleepy Joe" moniker. But he's not running against Trump, he's running against Warren and Sanders and the rest of the clowns. Make minimal appearances. Appear electable. Appear competent and articulate. That's all he had to do. Now's he's irreparably damaged the best thing he had going. Odds are good that he's done. Kinda like the Red Sox and the playoffs.

Yancey Ward said...

"Kinda like the Red Sox and the playoffs."

The Red Sox are showing some signs of life, and there is still 5 weeks of the regular season left. They can still make it to the playoffs, but they have no chance of winning the division.

Unknown said...

I saw Biden speak recently and was close enough to him to touch the button holes on the sleeve of his bespoke suit.

Talk of his mental decline is way exaggerated and likely fueled by his opponents.

He delivered a speech via teleprompter for about 20-25 minutes and then fielded questions for an hour. Yes, he moved slowly, but he looked fit and trim, and with the exception of one brief slip, he was most coherent and often passionate.

I came away impressed, and I'm a very strong Trump supporter.

He can get closer to the political center than any other candidate, and that's why he might get the nod.

That said, however, I don't think that he or any of the other Democratic candidates can beat Trump.

Drago said...

Mark: "To all of you bad-mouthing Joe Biden -- Shut up.
He's a lot better than all of you combined."

The Chinese, Russians and Iranians certainly believe corrupt 5-deferment chickenhawk Joe is better than us.

Thats why the Chinese gave Hunter Biden a sweet sweet $Billion+ cash infusion for his family slush fund "Investment" Group AND Russian backed energy oligarchs in Ukraine threw millions more to Hunter after little Joey used the power of his office to threaten the Ukrainian Govt with US govt financial retaliation if they didnt quash an investigation into those oligarchs.

BTW, this is what LLR Chuck might term a "dream-perfect" non-corrupt scenario!!

Just imagine what little old Mark would say if it was PDJT and Donald Jr pulling that!!

gilbar said...

in fairness to Jo Biden;
He is Not Losing his mind; he LOST it quite some time ago

Yancey Ward said...

Unknown,

I watched him in both debates, and especially in the second one he became literally incoherent more than once. If someone wants to take him out in the 3rd round, I suspect he is toast.

gilbar said...

so, pick your poison

A) a senile white male, that just happens to be a sexual harasser (of LITTLE girls)
B) a geriatric white female, that got her tenure by fraudulently saying she was a person of color
C) a cranky old crank; that thinks that Sweden is a socialist country

Mark said...

Sarcasm
noun - mocking, contemptuous, or ironic language intended to convey scorn or insult

You can lead some people to it, but you can't make them understand it for what it is.

Beasts of England said...

With three significant front runners - twenty percent each - I think the analysis is who the primary voters break to as their favorite candidates drop out. Biden is the moderate of the three, but will he attract enough from the other forty percent to remain in the hunt? Is the combined support of Warren and Bernie the maximum traction for the hard left? It may be too soon to divvy up the pie, but the next debate will be must see tv.

Clyde said...

In other news, 100% of registered Democrats and Democrat-leaning voters are in favor of bad ideas, because that's what all of the remaining 20-odd Democrat candidates (and Independent Socialist Bernie) have on offer. If they had good ideas, they'd be Republicans. And that's all that I have to say about that.

wbfjrr2 said...

take a deep breath everybody. The poll results are of 298 democrat or dem leaning registered voters--margin of error 6%.

Silly poll. Not that I like any of them, but just plain silly.

rcocean said...

From 1988 AP:

Biden released his law school records showing he had graduated 76th in a law school class of 85. In the videotape, Biden went on to say, ″I went to Syracuse law school on a full academic scholarship.″ The records he released last week indicated he had a $800 scholarship from the school out of a total tuition of $1,620.

"Slow Joe" - always Slow.

rcocean said...

Except for meeting debate standards, national polls are meaningless. All that matters is how they are polling in Iowa, and the first 4-5 sates.

Yancey Ward said...

"I think the analysis is who the primary voters break to as their favorite candidates drop out"

I think the supporters of Booker, Harris, Buttuvwxyz, DeBlasio, Gabbard, Gillibrand etc. are likely to go in vast preference to Warren or Sanders. I just can't imagine a supporter of one of these candidates going for Joe Biden. A lot might just sit it out once their preferred candidate drops out.

Clyde said...

traditionalguy said...
He's already gone. Scott Adams wants the Dems to invoke the mercy rule. But I want to see Lizzie scalp him and whoop and holler waiving his bloody hair. No Surrender Warren has the nomination won.


Which brings to mind this musical interlude, with Biden in the Custer role.

Custer - Steve Earle & The Milk Carton Kids

rcocean said...

Biden is well positioned in "The Establishment/Moderate Lane" but Harris/Warren/Bernie are fighting for position in the "Crazy Left Lane". 2 out of those 3 have to drop out.

Drago said...

Clyde: "In other news, 100% of registered Democrats and Democrat-leaning voters are in favor of bad ideas"

In other news, 100% of registered Democrats and Democrat-leaning voters and LLR-leftist voters are in favor of bad ideas

FIFY

Ingachuck'stoothlessARM said...

"Mesa not goin' nuts!!" --Jar Jar Biden

maybe he'll ruin another franchise

rcocean said...

As stated by others, Biden is the most well-known of the all the candidates, and supposedly the "moderate/establishment" choice. And yet he only has 20-30%. Which indicates 70-80% know about him, and don't want him. Definitely an opportunity for the challengers.

Hagar said...

I am starting to think Hillary! is their only choice.

Narayanan said...

"I'm not going nuts."
Is it acceptable to parse that to mean "I'm nuts already"!

BleachBit-and-Hammers said...

As seen on the interwebz:

"Spreading Bull and Hugo Bernie"

Ingachuck'stoothlessARM said...

will the next debate be Biden's Little Bighorn? --

He'll be surrounded by Indians--West, East, and 1/1024th Native

stevew said...

@Yancey Ward RE: The Red Sox. I like the way you think, but closing a six game gap with 30 to play is a big task, especially when the folks ahead of us are playing well, enough. They are certainly capable. Losses like yesterday's undermine my confidence.

narciso said...

Problem going forward:

https://www.foxnews.com/us/young-americans-care-less-about-patriotism-religion-and-family-than-previous-generations-study-says?fbclid=IwAR0q04AxvU0LBGeuJW_OKcI1WD_WVd51daf5Ke-a4_CJaOpdkqiIvjv1-0k#

Phidippus said...

"I want to be clear, I’m not going nuts."

Perhaps, but you are losing your marbles. Not that you ever had many to spare.

***

rcocean said: "Bernie's big mistake? Not marrying Oprah."

Oprah's had black, she's not going back.

***

Seriously, both Oprah and Michelle are too lazy to run. They like living the life, without all the hard work.

I do wonder, if she (it?) somehow avoids indictment, the Daughter of Satan might arise, and, floating on a misty cloud, in a white pantsuit brighter than a thousand suns, accompanied by a celestial choir in ecstatic vocalise, attempt to rescue the Democrat party from itself?

Nah.

bagoh20 said...

The American Gothic ticket

Big Mike said...

Harris upset that strategy when she revealed that Biden tried to prevent her from attending an integrated school when she was a little girl.

You do know she was lying, right?

FWIW, I agree with gilbar at 6:51.

Fen said...

wbfjrr2 take a deep breath everybody. The poll results are of 298 democrat or dem leaning registered voters--margin of error 6%.

Ah nice catch. 298? Not even "likely" voters? An MOE of SIX percent? LOL.

Why not just make the numbers up, saves time and will have the same credibility.

Fen said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Fen said...

He campaigned way more than he had to in an attempt to disprove Trump's "Sleepy Joe" moniker.

Smart move by Trump. Reminds me how he got Bush to wear himself out trying to prove he was not Low Energy Jeb. The more he flailed the quicker he gassed out*

*For those unfamiliar with the term, gassed out is when your limbs go weak because your are not delivering enough oxygen to your muscles. You see it alot with MMA fighters who come out thrashing hard and then peter out. Or if you have ever climbed several flights of stairs and felt your thigh muscles turn to jello.

And this is the key reason I like Trump: He fights. The GOP has a bad pattern of refusing to even get on the field. If you forfeit and never make your opponent take the field, even when you have no chance of winning, you rob yourself of the opportunity to force them to make own goals, as Warren did by performing a DNA test. Or as Biden has done by making multiple gaffs "after 5 PM" trying to prove he wasn't Sleepy Joe.

Fen said...

298? Not even "likely" voters? An MOE of SIX percent?

Yah, the more I think about it the more like this seems like a fake poll designed to get the "conversation" started about pulling Biden out.

Can't let the "Democratic" Party make it's own decision.

Which reminds me, why is Bernie even running this time around? Did he not understand the DNC last time around? They will only steal the nomination from him again.

Tommy Duncan said...

The Democrat polls favor a "generic Democrat" over Trump. The DNC mistakenly delivered a field of "geriatric Democrats".

exiledonmainstreet, green-eyed devil said...

Biden is not nuts. It's just getting harder for him to conceal his stupidity.

Michael K said...

I came away impressed, and I'm a very strong Trump supporter.

Another LLR.

RK said...

I like polls of people who are stupid enough to talk to pollsters.

Bay Area Guy said...

Maybe, Warren should take another DNA test - who knows, she may be able to bump up her Injun blood to 2 or 3/1052.

Michael The Magnificent said...

I'm a conservative in an open primary state. This could be fun!

Bay Area Guy said...

I'm voting for Bernie Sanders in the primary. The man is a lunatic, but he's our lunatic.

eric said...

I've been saying for awhile now, there's no way today's Democrat party will nominate a straight, white, male.

Which means Biden and Bernie are out.

Crazy World said...

Who will lead us into 2020? So psycho all these fools.
Rock on Mr.President

MikeR said...

Stick to the RCP summary https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html or the 538 version. Polls bounce around and it's bad for your brain to let your head bounce around.

Roy Jacobsen said...

"I'm not going nuts."

Papoon's campaign slogan was better: "Not Insane."

PM said...

This generation's "I am not a crook."