July 6, 2019

Why I'm not convinced by Scott Adams's reasons for thinking Trump is not considering dropping Mike Pence as VP.



Two words: Nikki Haley.

Trump didn't choose Pence in 2016 because he'd make the best Vice President. He chose him because he was the best help in winning. The question is who will be the best help in 2020. And we know Trump loves political theater.

Adams goes on about how Pence has "subjugated" his own ambition. Subjugation lends itself to more subjugation. If Trump wants Pence to gracefully withdraw, he will. Don't you think? There doesn't need to be anything "wrong" with Pence for Trump to move him aside. Adams says Pence has "earned it" and asks his viewers don't they all agree that Pence has "earned it." I don't think that's the test!

147 comments:

Virgil Hilts said...

I want it to be true. I think it would bring more votes to Trump and increase his chances of winning. I did not vote last time, but I would vote for this ticket.

Francisco D said...

Pence helped Trump in the Midwest. He is a sober, serious and unexciting person who balances Trump's over-the-top personality.

Nikki Haley as Trump's running mate would be fascinating, but she does not help him in the Midwest. That she is a woman only matters if she was a Democrat. Remember Sarah Palin?

Birkel said...

It would make for an interesting discussion.
But for now it's so much hot air.

I do like Nikki Haley.
Mike Pence has been predictably boring.

Expat(ish) said...

Trump needs to find a tough as nails ex military black lesbian in a wheelchair.

I’d buy popcorn futures so fast....

_XC

Big Mike said...

Reasons why I think Althouse is wrong:

1) Trump is very loyal to people who are loyal to him. Fiercely loyal.

2) ...

Dave Begley said...

Tough call.

But the polling probably shows that Trump's weakest identity group is women and if he added a woman to the ticket that might help. OTOH, people don't vote on the basis of VP.

LYNNDH said...

Expat(ish), you forgot Transgender.

The dump Pence thing is, to me, just another lefty wetdream.

Dave Begley said...

Trump's key states are MN, WI, IA, OH, MI and PA. Pence helps greatly there. Nikki doesn't.

On the Dem side it will be Harris and either Klobuchar or Castro as VP.

Ralph L said...

Haley needs to run on her own steam, though I think she's learned to fight against Palinization.

Big Mike said...

Towards the end of nearly every president's first term the bubble that is Washington, DC, gets filled with speculation that the President is planning to dump his VP. Boooooorrrrrring.

I recall it happening with JFK (until Lee Harvey Oswald changed matters). I recall it happening with Reagan (he stuck with Pappy Bush). It certainly happened with Bush the Younger and Obama. They never change their VPs, and no President has since FDR dumped Wallace in favor of Truman.

Not an oldster. said...

This is pussy thinking.
Pence has been a solid and loyal partner to Trump, like a helpmate. You don't dump your partner midstream. Pence is solid and not disloyal. He is the religious vote Trump needed that Ann's libs discount.

What does adding a brown pussy to the ticket make him but a demographic panderer? That is not how he won, counting and courting is more a girls' game. Or for fellas like Clinton scheming to use other people and groups to advance himself.

Learn to stick with who brung ya ladies, and stop looking around at the dance for someone with a bigger warmer car/backseat.

Mattman26 said...

Slightly OT, I just looked and Pence is only 60!

Henry said...

They never change their VPs, and no President has since FDR dumped Wallace in favor of Truman.

That worked out well.

Also: Lincoln dropping Hannibal Hamlin.

That worked out not so well.

Ralph L said...

I believe changing VPs for the second run was the norm until Ike, but there weren't really that many. Who was Taft's VP?

At what point did the VP nominee become hand-picked by the Pres nominee and not by the convention/smoke-filled room?

Limited blogger said...

Pence locks up the 'Evangelical vote'

Not gonna mess with that now.

traditionalguy said...

I agree. Trump has the evangelical vote with no help from Pence. They get along well, but he was originally forced on Trump by Ryan and Priebus. And Trump is a realist. Pence is not.

Anonymous said...

Much as I like the idea of Nikki Haley being put in a position leading to the Presidency I tend to agree with Adams. !. If you look at Trump's daily schedule at Liz Shields' blog you will see that Trump lunches with Pence several times a week. I suspect that many of the discussions revolve around the political gamesmanship that Trump is weak on and that Pence has a lot of experience with. 2. My impression of Trump is that he is quick on the trigger if one fucks up, but if you are doing the job for him he is very loyal.

Pence has done a good job for Trump and as mentioned above he is a big positive in the midwest. If Pompeo were not as good as he seems I would push for Haley as Secretary of State. Hillary not withstanding it is a very visible step to the Presidency.

rhhardin said...

A vagina at any cost.

mockturtle said...

Trump would be smart to show confidence in his own choice by keeping Pence on the ticket. Women voters who didn't vote for him in 2016 won't do so in 2020 just because he puts a woman on the ticket.

rhhardin said...

You'd think women could get their fill by watching Veep seasons 1-7, now on DVD.

Earnest Prole said...

Personal loyalty for me but not for thee.

Bob Boyd said...

I have no idea what Trump will do re Pence.
But just thinking out loud, so to speak, why was it Pence in the first place?

1) The religious right vote. Candidate Trump wasn't exactly part of the moral majority.
2) Pence was a serious man, sober and judicious, a calm head and a steady hand to possibly restrain an unpredictable Trump.
3) He was from the midwest. Trump was NY NY.
4) Pence was establishment GOP.

Trump doesn't need those things anymore. He needs other things.

Michael said...

In order to stay on the ticket, Pence comes out as a woman.

Michael K said...

Pence helped Trump in the Midwest. He is a sober, serious and unexciting person who balances Trump's over-the-top personality.<

Agreed.

It was the GOP convention that chose Johnson over Hamlin, not Lincoln. He might have had a word with some.

I recall it happening with JFK (until Lee Harvey Oswald changed matters).

That was serious. Life Magazine had a special issue on Johnson's crimes set to go the next week. They had an editorial meeting the day Kennedy was shot. When the word came of the shooting, the issue vanished.

doctrev said...

Not just no, FUCK no. The problem with marinating in liberal wet dreams is that you start to unconsciously assume things they declare are facts. Don't do that.

Pence has stuck with Trump and done his job of liaising with the worthless Congress. The idea that Trump can gain tons of minority votes by putting up a minority woman is the kind of cuck move that a Rubio would make, but that Trump never does. Besides which, it showed terrible lack of judgement when Haley tried to be assertive against Trump, yet submitted to the anti-Confederate iconoclasts when she was governor. I guarantee Trump thinks that too, and it's why Haley is on the outside instead of having been shuffled to a new position in the Administration. She gambled, and she lost. No shame in that, if you were never an American loyalist, but it means her federal career is finished, and her state career might result in a primary from proud Southerners. Just enjoy the private sector, Nirindra.

Browndog said...

Haley is a NeverTrump neo-con. I despise her. Let's not forget she caved to the rage mob and had the rebel flag removed from the Capital grounds when she was governor, and created a nationwide shit storm still active to this day.

She won't be getting my vote, even if that means Trump doesn't either.

traditionalguy said...

Loyalty has to be a two way street. The Deep State’s agents seriously embedded in our Government and at war to the death with Trump got fingered by envelopes specially delivered to these loyal agents during the Bush I funeral service. Surprisingly, the Carters were left out, but the Pence family got one.

Michael said...

I have thought for some time that Mike Pence might soon realize that what he had always wanted to be was Ambassador to Israel, or president of Oral Roberts (if it's still around), or some such. What Haley would do for Trump is answer the question "apres moi?" She would become the presumptive candidate in 2024 - a capable, experienced, reliably conservative but generally attractive successor to Trump without the P.T. Barnum aspect. That she is a woman (of color, yet! Sorta.) might not matter now, but it would then.

rcocean said...

This enthusiasm for Nikki Halley is insane. She's not Conservative. She's a globalist who opposed Trump in 2016 and spoke out against everything he stood for. She's John McCain with a pretty face.

And she's never done anything of importance. Throw in the fact that she's Indian, and who is going to vote for Trump because she's on the ticket? No one. The Democrats/Press aren't going to give Trump credit for putting a "Woman of Color" on the ticket.

Carol said...

Oh god no, please don't dump Pence. Pence has been good for Trump and Haley's just a neocon. She's got a clear path to 2024 on her own if she stays in the limelight. You know, take a stand while waiting, the way mousey, low energy Jeb! never did.

Why do we have to play this cuckish game anyway. Got so sick of fellow GOPers and their pining for Condi Rice. Bleah! .

rcocean said...

The 2020 election will about Trump. who voted Republican in 2016, because Pence was on the ticket? Maybe a few people in the Midwest.

If you want to get rid of Pence, replace him with a qualified Conservative Hispanic or Black. Good luck in finding one.

rcocean said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
rcocean said...

Remember Dan Quayle? All the Republican losers wanted Bush to dump him in 1992. jerry ford - Mr. moron - led the charge. He thought that replacing Quayle with a liberal-moderate would win more votes. What an idiot! Even George Bush realized that was stupid. Changing VP's just makes you look weak and disloyal.

The Cracker Emcee Refulgent said...

“Adams goes on about how Pence has "subjugated" his own ambition.”

Bollocks. Pence is the Same Old Face personified. He wasn’t going anywhere, anymore than Biden is. If anything, Trump lifted him up a scootch.

Bob Boyd said...

Is there an enthusiasm for Nikki Haley out there? This Althouse post is the first I've heard about the idea of replacing Pence with Haley.

If Haley was out selling Trump's asylum law changes and building the wall, she could potentially bring a certain amount of cred to it in the minds of some in the mushy middle. She could make it harder to portray the ideas as xenophobic, motivated by racism, etc.
Don't interpret that as "enthusiasm for Nikki Haley", I'm just spit-balling here.

rcocean said...

Ford Dumped Rocky in 1975, because he never should have been on ticket in the first place. Ford knew he couldn't win the nomination with a Rocky-Ford ticket. Later, Ford said that was his biggest regret as POTUS - caving in to "Right-wing extremists" and booting Rocky for Dole.

Wallace was kicked off, because no one except FDR had wanted him in 1944. Even leftists like Ickes, Morgenthau, and Hopkins thought Wallace wasn't fit for the job. Some Party regulars convinced FDR that he's lose if he kept Wallace on the ticket, so he got rid of him. Right after telling him, he's stand by him 100%. But that's how FDR operated.

John henry said...

I hope not. I think Haley would make a good president.

Making her vp would be the kiss of death to her presidential ambitions.

I do think she should be given some prominent role to play.

Just not vp. A waste of current and future talent.

John Henry

Browndog said...

What is a conservative these days?

I thought I was one, but got kicked out of the club for supporting Trump. You say Haley is a conservative based on what? Fiscal responsibility rhetoric?

I remember all the "conservative" women swept into Congress with the tea party movement in 2010/2012. I think only Joni Ernst remains. She was just bad mouthing Trump a couple weeks ago. Every single one went full swamp after a short time in D.C.

She's another Martha McSalley, having to scrub her anti-Trump rhetoric from the web.

By "Trump" I don't mean the man personally. I mean his MAGA agenda.

rcocean said...

If you support Trump why would you support Haley? If you remember, Haley had several leaks to the press making it clear she didn't support Trump during Charlottsville and several other occasions. She worked for Trump at the UN - but she was constantly winking and nodding to the Press that she didn't agree with a lot of what Trump was doing.

There's a certain kind of Republican that always falls for this crap. They dream that if we put Condi Rice or Colin Powell or some woman/person of color (who's more conservative than Hillary Clinton) on the ticket, we'll gather millions of votes and win.

Marcus said...

There will be no change. Trump values loyalty very highly. Adams right, Althouse wrong.
Leftist, feminist thinking on display.

THEOLDMAN


Bob Boyd said...

I'll support Trump no matter who he picks as VP. I learned back in the last Primary that I have no idea what Trump should do to win an election.

mockturtle said...

One thing about Pence does concern me: His nostrils. They are so incredibly narrow, I can't see how he can breathe through them.

rcocean said...

"She could make it harder to portray the ideas as xenophobic, motivated by racism,"
etc."

No, the MSM would attack her as racist/xenophobe who as an wealthy Hindu Indian didn't care about poor Hispanics at the border. That she has a brown skin wouldn't stop them from painting her as a "Hater". They aren't going to stop playing their smear game. Having Haley talk about the Border might pick up six additional female independents in Omaha - But that's it.

rcocean said...

Pence has executive hair. that must be worth something.

iowan2 said...

Pence locks up the 'Evangelical vote'

Not gonna mess with that now.


Nope. Talk the the Evangelicals. Unless President Trump would switch to anti Religous, Evangelicals will not put a Democrat in office. Democrats are anti Religion. President Trump has shown by word and action, his commitment to Faith.

mockturtle said...

No pandering!!! None! No concessions to the Left! Appeasement never works.

Francisco D said...

Changing VP's just makes you look weak and disloyal.

Sort of like McGovern and Eagleton?

That worked out well.

/sarc

Heartless Aztec said...

President Haley does have a certain ring to it.

Big Mike said...

Marcus is right; those of you who think repacking Pence with anyone doesn’t understand Trump. Those who further think he’d replace a loyal subordinate with Haley are simply delusional. She had opportunities to demonstrate that she could be a team player; she flubbed too many of them.

Browndog said...

If Trump chooses a VP that will work behind the scenes to undermine his agenda just to cater to a certain demographic for the sole purpose of staying in power tells me two things:

He's not as smart as I give him credit.

He's just like all the rest (power over principle) and loses my support. I will stand mute when voting for the next President.

Yancey Ward said...

I think it would cost him more votes than it would gain. It would be seen by some as a disloyal act against someone who didn't deserve to get dumped from the ticket. It wouldn't change my vote, but I could see it changing quite a few.

Rory said...

"It was the GOP convention that chose Johnson over Hamlin, not Lincoln. He might have had a word with some."

Non-Radical Republicans and War Democrats held a "National Union Party" convention. They had to nominate a War Democrat.

readering said...

Remember in 2016 Trump was ready to select Christie when Manafort maneuvered him into going with Pence instead at the last minute. I suspect Trump will go back and forth multiple times on this one depending on the polls. One problem would be how to do it. Ford telephoned Rocky directly. Trump has trouble with firing people directly. Who would he use to dump VP?

wendybar said...

Browndog said...
What is a conservative these days?

I thought I was one, but got kicked out of the club for supporting Trump. You say Haley is a conservative based on what? Fiscal responsibility rhetoric?

I remember all the "conservative" women swept into Congress with the tea party movement in 2010/2012. I think only Joni Ernst remains. She was just bad mouthing Trump a couple weeks ago. Every single one went full swamp after a short time in D.C.

She's another Martha McSalley, having to scrub her anti-Trump rhetoric from the web.

By "Trump" I don't mean the man personally. I mean his MAGA agenda.
7/6/19, 11:41 AM

Hear!! Hear!!!

Unknown said...

It doesn't matter if Pence has done a good job.

If the Democrats nominate a Pres. or VP candidate who is young and/or female, Trump has to go young and female--to capture those voters.

wwww said...

I would like to see more of Nikki Haley but doubt she'd get involved in drama. And if Trump moves to remove his VP there would be drama. There would be drama if any Pres did so unless the VP was ill.

vanderleun said...

Adams was once (and on occasion still is) interesting to listen to. Of late, however, he's become very very impressed with himself and is busy building a little shell of acolytes who love all the little squblets he emits on a daily basis. ("Today I shall block those who say I cannot hypnotize!")Like others who are too impressed with themselves, he reveals his smallness the more he tries to underscore his "importance." His periscope these days is just one huff and puff after another and he has descended into the ranks of the dull.

khematite said...

Six VPs were not renominated in the 19th century, under varying circumstances: Aaron Burr, John C. Calhoun, Richard Johnson, Hannibal Hamlin, Schuyler Colfax, and Levi P. Morton.

Three VPs were not renominated in the 20th century, again under varying circumstances: John Nance Garner, Henry Wallace, and Nelson Rockefeller. Garner opposed FDR's third term and actually ran against him for the nomination. FDR wrote a letter declaring that, were he a delegate to the 1944 Democratic convention, he would vote to renominate Wallace. He had earlier indicated, however, that either Wallace or Truman was acceptable to him. Wallace's enemies within the Democratic party out-organized him and Truman ended up winning a majority of the delegates. Rockefeller is the only 20th century VP to be directly asked by his president to withdraw himself from consideration (but of course he had never actually been elected to the office of VP, in the first place).

Annie C. said...

Has anyone found out what Pence was called to the White House for the other day?

He ended up cancelling a trip to New England. It was very mysterious at the time. Could that be why the subject of replacing him is being put out there?

Drago said...

readering: "Remember in 2016 Trump was ready to select Christie when Manafort maneuvered him into going with Pence instead at the last minute."

LOL

So much fake and made up news that readering swallows whole without a moments hesitation.

WK said...

Nikki Haley has started “Stand forAmerica” which seems to be trying to get her policies out there. For 2024?
Standforamericanow.com

Browndog said...

WK said...

Nikki Haley has started “Stand forAmerica” which seems to be trying to get her policies out there. For 2024?
Standforamericanow.com


Unmoved.

You'll hear all kinds of Trump sounding rhetoric from the commies trying to take his job next election.

Drago said...

Browndog: "You'll hear all kinds of Trump sounding rhetoric from the commies trying to take his job next election."

Quite true.

Similar to May's claims that she is "fighting for Brexit"....while undermining it every step of the way in every possible way.

elkh1 said...

In 2016, only Pence agreed to be Trump's VP even after his "grab the pussy" comment when "Republicans" told him to ditch Trump.

Trump needs to survive 2020 for Pence to have the slightest chance in 2024. Would he survive 2020 with Pence as his running mate?

Is Trump trying to ditch his conservative VP and pivot left?

mockturtle said...

If the Democrats nominate a Pres. or VP candidate who is young and/or female, Trump has to go young and female--to capture those voters.

Nonsense! These are two entirely different groups of voters. Women are either pro-Trump or anti-Trump. No neutral ground

Browndog said...

Is Trump trying to ditch his conservative VP and pivot left?

No, just another example of the message makers trying to drive a wedge between Trump and his supporters.

bleh said...

Pence helped ideologically, by reassuring social and religious conservatives, and geographically, by appealing to Midwesterners. His ideological appeal probably somewhat undercut and mitigated his regional appeal, but it was good enough to help Trump win the battleground states.

I think Trump already has the social conservatives on board and doesn’t really need Pence for that. They sense Trump is going to fight for them in the ongoing cultural wars, and that’s good enough. His foibles and heathenism are baked in already and they’ve chosen him in spite of all that. The question now is, what does Trump need to win?

I think he probably needs to shore up his support in those battleground states, which have drifted leftward in elections since 2016. Evangelicals won’t deliver those states. The non-evangelical white working class in those states was willing to roll the dice on Trump because he made a lot of promises regarding trade and he was an outsider. With them, the obvious issue for Trump is whether he followed through on what he promised. Mike Pence can’t do much to help cushion that blow, nor can Haley.

Unless the battleground can be moved elsewhere, I don’t see how Haley can be of any help to Trump electorally. Are there states where suburban moms and squishy moderates might be turned off by whoever the Democrats nominate and will pull the lever for Trump because he picked a sensible conservative woman as his running mate? Maybe Arizona, Nevada, Colorado, North Carolina, Florida? Is that worth ceding Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, etc.?

J. Farmer said...

I’ve never been impressed by Haley. Her tenure as UN ambassador looked like little more than resume building, and I suspect she’d sell out on immigration in a heartbeat.

Sarah Rolph said...

I think it's absurd to imagine Haley would take the VP spot. There's nothing in it for her. She is nicely positioned to run as the strongest GOP candidate in 2024. Why would she want to tie herself to Trump for the next four years?

Nichevo said...

Three questions:

Why not Pence?

Why Haley?

Why/not someone else?



Haley adds nothing. She is a weak backstabber who would be more likely to help the President to lose SC than win it.

The only other "fresh face" in sight, to my misunderinformed political mind, is this Dan Crenshaw. He may add a certain something something, je ne sais quoi, to the ticket, but PDT hardly needs his help to carry Texas or the military/patriotic vote. I also need more harrumph out of this guy.

Pence, assuming he and his people were not involved in any anti-Trump activity, have not obviously offended. I do not see any upside in a fresh face unless the face were to contribute to winning a swing state, which conceivably Pence did in the Midwest. Is there someone like a Pence-plus who might say peel off Illinois?

Is there anyone out there doing for the President, trying to earn recognition and reward? Giuliani maybe? A bit old and, though I'm a fan, not evidently brilliant in managing Mueller. Who else?

One person in the VP role will not help but might hurt. Haley is poison. People should be all over trying to earn the Trumpian mantle. Who is? Name them.

Ray said...

Two points:
1. Although I'm not sure Pence is the one in 2024, Trump will honor his loyalty. I'm also not sure Pence hasn't been the difference in President Trump's strong pro-Christian actions.
2. Haley will get Rubio's previous supporters. Ugh. The one politician who thinks outside the box is Greg Abbott. I'm really impressed, and I think he'll keep the important part of the Trump agenda.

cf said...

i thoroughly agree with you, Althouse, and I figure Vice President Pence would be heroic in standing aside if that was what was asked of him. He has proved a most honorable statesman, his ego seems translucent, wholly devoted to service.

I especially liked the video of when he swore in the exciting new free-thinker from Arizona, Sen. Sinema. she looked Smashing, & it seemed she might have been prepared for a bit of kitsch on all this, but instead got struck by the pure, real, respectful sincerity and weight of the moment from the man delivering the oath, and seemed truly moved. A Mind Changed. (A Changeable Mind. Hurrah!)

Either way it goes is good with me.

I like Nikki Halley well enough, but, dang, the weaponized teams of the Obamabot-nation really know how to shred women, they get sharper, fuller and more lightning quick vicious at it every cycle.

Godspeed, all who dare challenge the Leftie Borg.

Unknown said...

On FDR: The convention knew perfectly well that they were picking the next President when they put in Truman. Nobody in close contact with FDR could deny his decline. FDR himself was perfectly content to backstab Wallace: "If I were a member of the convention, I would vote for Wallace" as if he were just a passive observer and the voting members would pay him no heed..

On Haley. She's a pretty good conservative IMHO. She came out of the Tea Party, and her parents ran a small business for years. She did pointlessly tick off the General Assembly early on, which is counter productive since the SC Governor has little real power, but seems to have learned her lesson. She was tested and good in the 2015 floods. On the flag thing she took the initiative to lance a boil that was going to burst someday anyway. For the nonce, the SC black population was willing to leave it alone and let us crackers have our flag to keep peace in the family, but eventually that equilibrium would have shifted.

Unknown said...

But Haley is academic at this point. Trump is not going to backstab a loyal guy who's doing a decent job.

mockturtle said...

CF: While I disagree with your opinion here, I will say that, as an Arizona Republican, I am pleasantly surprised and impressed with the practical opinions and policies of Senator Sinema so far. I think she will be a far more important Senator than McSally and not just because she looks good, although that does help.

Michael K said...

Every single one went full swamp after a short time in D.C.

She's another Martha McSalley, having to scrub her anti-Trump rhetoric from the web.


This is so typical of politics. Even local politics. I have seen it over and over in local politics.

Martha is very impressive in person but ran a weak campaign in 2018. I do think vote harvesting was a big part of her loss to Sinema, who seems to have vanished. Had Martha run a better campaign (refused a debate !) it might not have been close enough to cheat,.

tcrosse said...

So far we have neglected the traditional role of the VP as the President's life insurance, somebody the President's enemies want even less to be President. Nixon did this for Ike, then Agnew for Nixon, Quayle for Bush pére, Cheney for Bush fils, Biden for Obama.

Browndog said...

CF: While I disagree with your opinion here, I will say that, as an Arizona Republican, I am pleasantly surprised and impressed with the practical opinions and policies of Senator Sinema so far

From a Code Pink activist to a Reagan democrat type Senator?

Yep, that actually happened.

Guildofcannonballs said...

"He chose him because he was the best help in winning. The question is who will be the best help in 2020."

Wow, have I rubbed off on Althouse.

Trump chose Pence for many reasons, one of which, probably we can conclude without much evidence beyond the only thing that really matters, the choice, but saying it as if reaching levels of a mathematical proof is ridiculous.

I'll tone it down, I never meant for Althouse to start dropping to my levels of precision, although everybody has to agree our accuracy is astounding.

Trump couldn't have known who was the best help to win, and he might have had ulterior doubts about winning and ergo protected people he liked, whose career might be ruined accepting a losing VP nod, ergo Althouse is being uncharacteristically flippant regarding the mind of Donald J. Trump, citizen, when he chose Mike Pence to second the ticket.

I had recommended Justice Breyer or J. Goldstein of P. Wisdom fame as vpotUS for Trump.

mezzrow said...

Mike Pence represents the past, Nikki Haley represents the future. That's why.

Simple as. Pence has earned a comfortable retirement. Plus, staging for 2024 and that first woman president thing. Not a leftist and female? Just wait four years and we'll help.

It will be a litmus test for Trump on ruthlessness vs loyalty. An impressive test of longterm strategy as well.

Browndog said...

Michael K said...

I know you're a McSalley supporter and worked on her campaign. As I have utmost respect for you, I have to call them as I see them, though it does pain me so.

Guildofcannonballs said...

"... The question is who will be the best help in 2020."

It is inherently helpful for Pence to be the same guy Trump chose to be his sidekick for his first inauguration be by his side again for the second.

This might be some Great Bu Bu deep state psychology re NH. Like with Iran's big win killing our unmanned $100,000,000 drone. The DOD will doubtless have many sleepless nights over just exactly what happened to that $100,000,000.

Damn soldiers sleeping without tents, eating food in the field Not Ready to Eat. Bugs. Paper cuts. Bad traffic. Farts.

Under Trump, it never ends.

Browndog said...

Mike Pence represents the past, Nikki Haley represents the future. That's why.

Turn Nikki into a white male in your mind, then explain how she's the future.

Original Mike said...

I don't have a strong opinion of Pence either way, but I do value loyalty. Pence has been loyal and Trump needs to return the favor (which I think he will). Plus, only democrats are real woman, so the pander wouldn't work anyways and would look awful. Bad idea.

Rockport Conservative said...

Ralph L said...
"I believe changing VPs for the second run was the norm until Ike, but there weren't really that many."
I was a young school kid when FDR died, he had Wallace for two terms and was forced to change for his third term, the one that made Truman president.

walter said...

That would make the affair a lot easier to maintain...

Original Mike said...

"I recall it happening with JFK (until Lee Harvey Oswald changed matters)."

"That was serious. Life Magazine had a special issue on Johnson's crimes set to go the next week. They had an editorial meeting the day Kennedy was shot. When the word came of the shooting, the issue vanished."

Wow. I don't know my grassy knoll conspiracy theories, but LBJ did it must be one.

dreams said...

I'm with Scott Adams, no way is Trump dropping Pence, he's done a good job and been loyal to Trump. Also, it's not consistent with our modern history, the last time that happened was when FDR was president. If it ain't broke, don't fixed it, why rock the boat. And another reason is, it wouldn't be the honorable thing to do and Trump is actually an honorable man. Believe it or not, liberals.

victoria said...

Scott Adams, total tool.


Vicki from Pasadena

David in Cal said...

Haley was great as UN Ambassador, but that doesn't make her a great President. I admire her a lot, but don't think she would help the ticket.

Francisco D said...

Martha is very impressive in person but ran a weak campaign in 2018.

I voted for her but was terribly unimpressed with her media persona. She seems to need some coaching. She does not show any leadership presence.

Sinema has hotness and the smarts to pretend that she is somewhat bipartisan. I was shocked that she won despite her antipathy for the state of Arizona.

In retrospect, many AZ conservatives stayed out of the race because McSally seemed to be another McCain. If she wants to win against Giffords' husband, she needs to fix that problem.

rcocean said...

"If the Democrats nominate a Pres. or VP candidate who is young and/or female, Trump has to go young and female--to capture those voters."

Yeah, that's why Trump lost in 2016. No female on the ticket. And why McCain won in 2008.

khematite said...

Blogger Rockport Conservative said...
Ralph L said...
"I believe changing VPs for the second run was the norm until Ike, but there weren't really that many."
I was a young school kid when FDR died, he had Wallace for two terms and was forced to change for his third term, the one that made Truman president.

No, it was John Nance Garner for FDR's first two terms, then Wallace for the third term, and Truman for the fourth. And at least in the 20th century, no president changed his vice-president until FDR.

rcocean said...

As for the youth vote. I can understand balancing the ticket with a young man if you have someone super-old and vice-versa although usually more was involved. Ike picked Nixon - not just because he was young but because of California and Nixon was thought of as "Conservative" back then. LBJ balanced JFK's youth but again you had Texas and the fact that LBJ was supposedly "Conservative" compared to "Liberal" JFK. And finally Bush chose Quayle because he was young, conservative, and from the Midwest.

FDR picked old man James Garner in 1932, but suddenly decided in 1940, that he needed a younger man on the ticket, or so FDR said. James Farley and several others were crossed off the list because they were "too old". Everyone was shocked when FDR chose "young" Henry Wallace who was 52 vs. FDR's 58!

Michael K said...

many AZ conservatives stayed out of the race because McSally seemed to be another McCain.

Yes, Chuck's heroes. Thank God there are not that many Chucks and their heroes anymore.

dreams said...

"Scott Adams, total tool.


Vicki from Pasadena"

Little old lady from Pasadena?

rcocean said...

No one, even FDR, has ever given a good reason for choosing Wallace in 1940. He lost the ticket votes, he was an extreme leftist, who'd never run for office and wasn't even a Democrat in 1932. No one in FDR's cabinet, even his fellow Leftists, respected him. He wasn't a great campaigner and the Democrats were so unhappy with the choice a revolt at the convention occurred. Paul McNutt saved Wallace by declining to to challenge him. FDR later "rewarded" McNutt by making him head of the Manpower Commission and then undercutting him at every opportunity

Narayanan said...

Professora assignment on another thread was for class to work with and on fraud model.

Since this is Trump we are discussing I suggest divorce prenup model appropriate.

Can Trump be eligible bachelor going into convention ?!

Different states can present their choice of VP mate candidate!

Drago said...

"Scott Adams, total tool.
Vicki from Pasadena"

Speaking of "tools", recall vicki completely bought into the transparently false hoax dossier/hoax collusion lies.

Some people are simply more "toolish" than others.

Michael K said...

Wow. I don't know my grassy knoll conspiracy theories, but LBJ did it must be one.

Robert Caro's biography of Johnson, volume four. LBJ's crimes were bribery by Brown and Root who built his career in return for mammoth construction projects like Cam Rahn Bay and The Johnson Space Flight Center.

Unless, of course, you think Caro writes "conspiracy theories ."

I'd have the page number for you but my wife puts away books randomly,.

rcocean said...

John Nance Garner quit - FDR didn't fire him. He'd had enough of the New Dealers, and was 72. So, he ran for the Presidency, when FDR Refused to say if he would run in 1940. Once FDR declared at the last minute - Garner was out as VP.

Incredibly he lived until 1967.

rcocean said...

"Scott Adams, total tool."

Yeah, poor Scott. He was a great favorite of the Liberals until he made the mistake of saying Trump would win in 2016. Then the Liberals blacklisted him. His speaking dates at colleges and Tech Companies fell to zero. But he doubled down on trump and make a career out of being a slightly right of center on some issues, quasi-Trump supporter.

Which makes the Liberal/Left hate him even more.

rcocean said...

The Liberal/Left maintains party discipline. You follow the party line or you're labeled a right-wing "hater" and tossed out.

rcocean said...

The KGB and American communist party started the JFK assassination conspiracy industry. They wanted to deflect attention away from Communist Oswald and his hatred of JFK over Cuba. Fidel Castro was afraid for a while after the assassination that the USA would invade or bomb out of retaliation. Fortunately, for them, there are a lot of "Useful idiots" who find the truth boring. More people want to believe Nixon or the CIA killed Kennedy then the Communists.

Ray said...

Trump has Pence doing too many important and semi-important things. Pence appears to be #2 behind Pompeo when it comes to important foreign meetings. He would have sidelined him if he was intending to change VP's.

narciso said...

yes max Holland, discovered the dezinforma, that went through Italian and French papers, (that was recycled into jfk a quarter century later) but brian latell, corroborating the research of gus russo, suggests Oswald was very tied to dgi, from his time in minsk, where two up and coming officers, one who was later involved in the Ochoa sanchez, and another fabian escalante, who has pushed the right wing narrative,

Original Mike said...

Not sure you understood my comment, Michael K. I'm saying it looks like LBJ had a motive to kill Kennedy.

narciso said...

or rather the narrative that the right wing did it, I went to school with the son of the one who said he saw david Attlee phillips communicate with Oswald,

Steven said...

At what point did the VP nominee become hand-picked by the Pres nominee and not by the convention/smoke-filled room?

When the "primary" method of selecting delegates reached the point that you could win the nomination through elections.

Prior to the primary system, delegates were chosen by state and local party bosses, and generally took direction from those bosses. So after they nominated a specific candidate for President under direction from those bosses, they also nominated the VP under direction from those same bosses. A President could only pick his VP insofar as he had influence over the bosses.

Under the primary system, delegates to the convention are chosen by the campaign of the candidates that win the vote in the primaries. These delegates will generally take direction from the campaigns that selected them. So a candidate that won enough personally-pledged delegates in the primaries to win the nomination has enough personally-pledged delegates to select whomever he wishes as VP.

Guildofcannonballs said...

On some level Hardin is trolling as he knows we wouldn't actually want women to know why women are women and men are me.

The most natural allies in history are rednecks and butch lesbians.

The both ivwerkt love all the same things.

The abosolute genus behind i democatics is the combining of hated factions. KKK-razy glue Set Sailor says I thing. Coalition of fringes.

It is amazing. Still, given all that, Trump is more amazing.

And all he did was love the lands that made him rich, and never made a single secret about it.

Roy Lofquist said...

I would not be surprised if he chose Bozo the Clown and called it outreach to his loyal opposition.

Narayanan said...

Trump <<==>> Kim Jong Un

Tulsi <<==>> Assad

Why not T<<==>>T

Looking like syllogism to me.

Can Mike Pence JD go to SC to provide competition to Gorsuch in looks department.!

Inga...Allie Oop said...

“President Trump has shown by word and action, his commitment to Faith.”

Maybe he was just worshipping Stormy Daniels body? Just when did his big “Faith” begin?

Guildofcannonballs said...

"gus russo,"

There are two Max' masquerading as one.

Guildofcannonballs said...

Not in real life, in real life two men named Max.

In real life.

But authors...

Guildofcannonballs said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Guildofcannonballs said...

This is a link you ought know by now.

https://cumulus.hillsdale.edu/Buckley/

What ain't you doing, now that you ain't at Buckly no mo?

Michael McNeil said...

readering makes a solid prediction! It will be amusing seeing what actually happens. I doubt she's correct in this regard.

Drago said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
narciso said...

No this one:


https://www.amazon.com/Brothers-Arms-Kennedys-Castros-Politics/dp/1596915323/ref=pd_sbs_14_19?_encoding=UTF8&pd_rd_i=1596915323&pd_rd_r=492bb80b-a03a-11e9-ae12-fbad7273ae80&pd_rd_w=qrdJx&pd_rd_wg=kGIZe&pf_rd_p=588939de-d3f8-42f1-a3d8-d556eae5797d&pf_rd_r=G0XH5ZGVSAGCCE4NJ637&psc=1&refRID=G0XH5ZGVSAGCCE4NJ637

Drago said...

Hoax Collusion Cultist Inga: "Maybe he was just worshipping Stormy Daniels body? Just when did his big “Faith” begin?"

When would it have to have begun to "count"?

I am personally pleased to see Trump fighting hard against the dem/left/LLR-left pro-infanticide policies.

You know, the ones where they cheer and celebrate letting babies born alive...
....die.

Purposefully.

Drago said...

Speaking of being a "good Christian", is it an approved practice to falsely accuse an innocent man of being a gang rape leader for decades?

Where do you stand on that one Inga?

If memory serves, you were at the forefront of those monstrous lies here at Althouse.

Ill bet you never even lost a moment of sleep over that.

Not even one.

Tell us more of your "faith".

kate said...

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My son have been suffering from ADHD since the year 2016 and it was really tough and heartbreaking for me because he was my all and the symptoms were terrible, he always have difficulty with communication,and he always have problem paying attention . we tried various therapies prescribed by our neurologist but none could cure him. I searched for a cure and i saw a testimony by someone who was cured and so many other with similar body problem, and they left the contact of this doctor who have the herbal cure to ADHD. I never imagined ADHD has a natural cure not until i contacted him and he assured me my son will be fine. I got the herbal medication he recommended and my son used it and in one months time he was fully okay even up till this moment he is so full of life.ADHD has a cure and is a herbal cure,you can contact the doctor for more info on drwilliams098675@gmail.com on how to get this medication, Thanks.

Guildofcannonballs said...

"... ergo Althouse is being uncharacteristically flippant regarding the mind of Donald J. Trump, citizen, when he chose Mike Pence to second the ticket."

I don't concede nor deny there is a neat, happy little small definition we can just bill billions and trillions more to really be able to be transparent about what it is we do.

How couldn't someone with credentials get in on that is the question.

JackWayne said...

I would avoid Haley at all costs. I would like to see Pence dumped and Trump choose someone like himself - a businessman who doesn’t take any prisoners. A guy like Bernard Marcus maybe. I would absolutely avoid any politician especially anyone Trump beat for the nomination.

Guildofcannonballs said...

Trump Pence.

Trumpence.

UmPence.

Guildofcannonballs said...

I've eaten the finest meat in the world.

Elk tenderloin, 1 day old, 30 miles West of Loveland.

Penn Neff said...

The press would love it. They would never let up. What does Haley think of this Trump accuser? How does she feel about the fake news women’s issue of the day? Is r Trump a sob? “Sources say NH is furious over latest Trump gaffe” Train wreck. Haley has a future of her own. She is not suited to sitting there and enduring the feminist full court press.

Josephbleau said...

"Scott Adams, total tool.
Vicki from Pasadena"

One questions what engendered such a comment. But one can guess.

"Feed the birds, Trumppence a bag? No, nothing there."

Josephbleau said...

Guildofcannonballs said...
I've eaten the finest meat in the world.

Elk tenderloin, 1 day old, 30 miles West of Loveland.


No, you must cut out the liver before clinical death and consume it raw in bloody teeth to capture the true spirit of the Elk.

Josephbleau said...

Just ask Elizabeth Warren.

Ken B said...

Last time Pence helped the serial adulterer who used to support abortion with the evangelicals. This time Trump has the evangelicals sewn up.

Josephbleau said...

Vicki's comment above sounds like an academic paper in Psychology, A clear confirmation of the hypothesis... with absolutely no apparent formal evidence.

Ken B said...

The best argument that Trump will keep Pence has been made above: Trump is loyal. Pence has been loyal, which matters to Trump.

Josephbleau said...

Ken B. History demonstrates that more Presidents were serial adulterers than were not.

Michael K said...

I would like to see Pence dumped and Trump choose someone like himself - a businessman who doesn’t take any prisoners.

No, I thought that would work with T Rex but two giant egos are tough. Pence is fine.

Michael K said...

Just when did his big “Faith” begin?

About the time the judge ordered the blackmailer to pay attorney's fees.

Nice try, dummy.

Ken B said...

Josephbleau
Which is completely irrelevant to Trump needing to convince evangelicals to vote for him last time. JFK was not after the Jerry Falwell constituency.

Automatic_Wing said...

Pence isn't getting dropped. The only reason it's even being talked about is that the political junkies are bored.

Guildofcannonballs said...

Because he couldn't conceive, no crime, the son of a bitch declared the Constitution a fucking suicide pact.

WTF

Maybe we can outsource kids to China and overlook the thousands per year not up to Spartacus stamards? They don't matter to him, we know for sure.

Corey we know.

DanTheMan said...

Trump should wait until the Dems select their nominee. And then choose the same person as his VP.

veni vidi vici said...

If Pence is off the ticket for Trump's second term, he's arguably stronger as a 2024 contender b/c he's not just a "third term" of Trump since he'd have been out of the administration for the previous 4 years. If we get the expected recession and all the pain that brings in the next 4 years of a Trump presidency, Pence is also stronger b/c then he can say, "I was the good times; I left and the wheels fall off" as his value proposition if he can support it with policy (and as the former Republican Study Cmte chair, this is pretty much a given), and if he can present a moderate/laissez faire social issues face to the national electorate he'll have a better shot than he would going into 24 as Trump's 2-term VP whose EvangeliCon credentials are baked on like tattoos.

Mike Wallens said...

God help us if Haley is the strongest candidate for 24. She is a neocon lightweight who would do the bidding of the Boltons, Kristols, Wolfowitz... of the world. Hell no.

Bay Area Guy said...

I predict Trump will NOT drop Pence from the ticket. Trump would only do that to shake things up if he were losing.

However, if it came to that I would prefer Dan Crenshaw over Nikki Haley. Yes, probably won't happen. But I like the idea of Trump tapping a younger heir (Reagan's one big mistake) and Crenshaw is the best.

Achilles said...

Inga...Allie Oop said...
“President Trump has shown by word and action, his commitment to Faith.”

Maybe he was just worshipping Stormy Daniels body? Just when did his big “Faith” begin?

This person voted for Bill Clinton.

It takes faith to vote for a known rapist.

Lots of faith.

Achilles said...

Bay Area Guy said...
I predict Trump will NOT drop Pence from the ticket. Trump would only do that to shake things up if he were losing.

However, if it came to that I would prefer Dan Crenshaw over Nikki Haley. Yes, probably won't happen. But I like the idea of Trump tapping a younger heir (Reagan's one big mistake) and Crenshaw is the best.


I agree with everything said here.

Probably wont happen.

Want Crenshaw.

Pence is GHW Bush v 2.0.

Joe said...

Why assume Pence wants to keep doing the job?