June 17, 2019

"The key to dealing with the Islamic Republic is to appreciate that it is an exhausted regime, perhaps well on its way to extinction."

"A vulnerable, resentful enemy is a dangerous one. The U.S. should shore up its military might in the region and harden defenses around bases and diplomatic compounds. But the regime's essential weakness means it can't muster sufficient strength for a prolonged conflict with a determined superpower. The mullahs' clenched fists, slogans of martyrdom, and staged demonstrations shouldn't be confused with real power. The Trump administration's strategy of maximum pressure shouldn't be diluted as the two sides edge closer to the negotiating table. Despite the criticisms from Democrats and Europeans, Mr. Trump's Iran policy has had considerable success. He abrogated a deficient agreement that was smoothing Iran's path to a nuclear weapon. He restored sanctions, which many Iran-deal partisans insisted couldn't be done effectively. The economic pain Tehran feels today is as great as when the Europeans implemented their oil embargo in 2012. Iran's oil exports have contracted rapidly, denying the regime billions of dollars in hard currency. The key challenge for the Trump administration now is to sustain its strategy as the Iranians start dangling the possibility of a diplomatic opening."

From "America Can Face Down a Fragile Iran" by Reuel Marc Gerecht and Ray Takeyh (Wall Street Journal).

75 comments:

Automatic_Wing said...

The same neocon loonies who sold us Operation Iraqi Freedom have another middle east war to peddle.

Let's hope we're not dumb enough to fall for it twice.

Birkel said...

Speaking of exhausted, is RBG still alive?

Trump wants no war.
He wants the internal contradictions of the Islamic State in Iran and Managed Economy in China to collapse of their own respective accords.

J. Farmer said...

An Iraq War Won't Destabilize the Mideast

Perhaps we should be wary of following Mr. Gerecht's sage advice.

blnelson2 said...

Good.

MikeD said...

Iran will never be a trust-worthy negotiating partner as long as the Supreme Leader and his mad mullahs rule the Nation. Just continue the sanctioning of ever more individuals serving the regime.

Mark said...

Iran has been an exhausted regime on its way to extinction for 40 years.

Mark said...

He wants the internal contradictions of the Islamic State in Iran and Managed Economy in China to collapse of their own respective accords.

The Islamic State has been an exhausted regime on its way to extinction for 1300 years.

narciso said...

Sanctions are affecting Hezbollah and the houthi (broke the ceasefire again, but whose counting)

traditionalguy said...

Latest threat to the EU allies if they support Trump’s embargo is to spill the beans on the EU leaders who shared in the literal cash from the Obama-Jarret payments to Iran. #1 recipient being Hussein the Kenyan himself.

Do it.

Swede said...

Wars need to be defined in their scope.

Take out their navy and air force, and hold the threat of boots on the ground over their heads. That whole area would be better off with an Iran that had no navy and air force.

They've been punching way over their weight for too long. Breaking their toys has been in order for a while now. Wouldn't be sorry to see it happen.

narciso said...

Yes but the next step is they fire missiles at manama al Udeid the local emirate field

Mark said...

They've been punching way over their weight for too long. Breaking their toys has been in order for a while now.

It was time to "settle all family business" 18 years ago. We didn't. And now it just gets harder to do as they would almost certainly lob a dirty missile or two on Israel, just for the fun of it, if substantial military action is taken against them.

narciso said...

Consider the source:
https://www.counterpunch.org/2019/05/29/why-war-with-iran-is-not-a-rational-strategy-for-saudi-arabia/

But also retaliatory steps, if we engage.

Virgil Hilts said...

Spengler has been making this point for years. Iran cannot avoid collapse. Do the demographic math and then consider water. The WSJ article is behind a firewall so haven't read it, but curious if it discussed water. "In 2013, the former head of Iran's environmental protection agency reported that 85 percent of the country's groundwater was gone, while the population had doubled in the last 40 years." Iran Suicide by Dehydration

Swede said...

You know what separates the powers that be in Iran from their European and American counterparts?

Nothing. They're in power because they want to be in power and they did what they had to do to get in power. They're quite invested. In other words, they don't want to lose power.

They can lose their navy and air force (all air assets) and still cling to power.

Do something foolish like send a missile towards Israel?

Game over.

TJM said...

Obozo the Magnificent, a closet Muslim, did his very best to preserve despotic Islam. Trump should ship him there to enjoy the "fruits" of his labors

J. Farmer said...

@Swede:

Take out their navy and air force, and hold the threat of boots on the ground over their heads. That whole area would be better off with an Iran that had no navy and air force.

That would be a foolish escalation, would undoubtedly invite retaliatory strikes, and would almost inevitably put the US on a collision course with Iran. We are 18 years out on the Afghanistan War, 16 years out on the Iraq War, and we have yet to extricate ourselves from either conflict. Iran is almost five times the area of Iraq and has more than double the population.

narciso said...

That's largely because we thought to occupy than to punish Iraq same with Afghanistan

Swede said...

Again, the Iranian regime's goal, once threatened, is to stay in power.

As a local observer to the events in Iraq, they saw how quickly the levers of power were eradicated there. The army was destroyed in less than 2 months. The air force, the one's that didn't hightail it to Iran (of all places) lasted about 72 hours.

The error, in my opinion, was in staying.

America's military is good at 2 things:

1. Killing people
2. Breaking things.

It's what we train for. Nation building? Thank you, no.

I'm not suggesting that we occupy Iran. I don't see the need. Again, the scope of war can be limited, devastating, and short. With no navy and no air force, their ground forces would be extremely vulnerable. That's not a gamble that a government, that wants to stay in power, would be willing to risk.

narciso said...

Gerecht was the one who quit his company job to travel to Iran on his own dime

Birkel said...

Swede > J Farmer

Smug < Experience

gilbar said...

J Farmer said... Iran is almost five times the area of Iraq
I'd put it at almost four times the area of Iraq , but see your point
Iraq Area• Total 437,072 km2
Iran Area• Total 1,648,195 km2
(437,072*4== 1,748,288)

narciso said...

More significantly they have a full air sea and missile complement that can reach as far as europe.

Swede said...

I don't want to come across as being overly critical or unfriendly, not my point at all.

These kinds of conversations happen all the time in the military.

Because what we're really talking about is risk: how to mitigate it, what's acceptable, what's unacceptable.

People have their risk settings at different levels, and that's fine.

Prudent people are wary, and that's a good thing, but there are also times when action is called for. I think this is one of those times. Others don't. Make your arguments, for or against, but then pray it doesn't come down to it.

David Begley said...

The Dems want Iran to win. Why else did Obama give them billions and that insane deal?

Guildofcannonballs said...

Simpletons want the Dems to win, otherwise why offer simple arguments ignoring the lure of $ to Obama?

Guildofcannonballs said...

At any given moment proggies might support Iran, but it is all contingent on power.

They could execute slaves then argue they defended against slavery.

They can enable sex offenders and then claim that is there highest priority when it comes to fighting.

They don't care about who "wins"* as long as the checks are cashed into their account.

*Unrefined term, like Reagan used re the fuckin' Soviet Goddamned Fucking Union.

Guildofcannonballs said...

Iran is going to act with all the bluster they can muster because Trump has, although very tough trade-wise, opened himself up to accepting belligerence so as not to go against his campaign promise of another war paid for by dead patriots greater than the fucking rubble they fight on behalf of.

Not to mention Trump does give a shit about soldiers/etc. dead or not so he would never lie to the faces of bereaved by claiming "it's this video and we'll get 'em" like cunt Clinton.

Michael K said...

Perhaps we should be wary of following Mr. Gerecht's sage advice.

Farmer's Iranlophilia and IsraelophobiA are on full display.

I would take Gerecht's advice on Iran in a New York minute over yours. How much Farsi do you speak ?

Iran's birth rate has crashed. Mosque attendance is at 2 %

The IRGC is holding on as the rest of the country slips away. We have no argument with the 80% of the country that hates the Mul,lahs.

Guildofcannonballs said...

The greatest argument against the National Popular Vote is A) the Constitution and B) the 17th Amendment.

Imagine a world where senators had to respond to local office-holders not mega-donors.

This is what the proggies cry about but would kill, and have, to prevent.

Admire these progs: they never will be slaves like they have made others, they would rather die.

They did learn that, one, lesson. Fucking J M Keynes, what a cunt.

narciso said...

Yes you couldn't get away with indefinitely long wars before the 17th amendment.

Guildofcannonballs said...

One thing important to note: the suffering is real in this world for men like Keynes. Avoiding that fate at all haste is proscribed for all. It takes work and needs to be taught.

Congrats to those who have been teaching.

Jupiter said...

Blogger narciso said...
"More significantly they have a full air sea and missile complement that can reach as far as europe."

Even more significantly, they are actively exploring an EMP strike against the entire continental US, launched from a missile carrier in the Atlantic.

Dear corrupt left, go F yourselves said...

The Mullahs need to topple. Free the people of Iran.

Sprezzatura said...

I think BHO used the deeps state to spy on DJT so that he could get the money re his Mooooslim bros in Iran.

Bomb, bomb, bomb...bomb Iran.

You cons are smart!

Guildofcannonballs said...


My music, in my head, is a composite of that song from The Hills over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and oave*

*all typed in a row, no copy paste.

But that/this is what it is. Unbelevably know brain washing is seen as hip and to be desired.

Why I love the Great BuBu revolves around this seemingly innopportune time to be one of the most amazing of specimens: The American.

Twain knew. Talked about it. Wrote about it too if indeed my reccolection is of sufficeness.

J. Farmer said...

@Swede:

I'm not suggesting that we occupy Iran. I don't see the need.

You are advocating a costly and dangerous escalation in response to an attack on a foreign-owned vessel whose owner himself has cast doubt on the official narrative. I did not say anything about nation-building. What I said that such a course of action "would undoubtedly invite retaliatory strikes, and would almost inevitably put the US on a collision course with Iran." Saying you oppose nation-building is not a response to that critique. Iran has a never of asymmetric options at its disposal for retaliation, including activating proxy forces in places like Iraq and Syria to agitate against US targets. And such actions by Iran will most likely result in people like you calling for the US to response by even further escalating the conflict. You don't have to enter a conflict with the intent of occupying to end up occupying. And that would be an extremely costly conflict for the US.

J. Farmer said...

@Michael K:

Farmer's Iranlophilia and IsraelophobiA are on full display.

Yawn. Please wake me when you get new material. As I've said ad nauseam, even if that were 100% (instead of the 0% it is), it would be completely beside the point and would not challenge or disqualify any argument I have made. That a man of your education cannot grasp that basic logic is frightening.

I would take Gerecht's advice on Iran in a New York minute over yours. How much Farsi do you speak ?

None. And yet I get Iraq right, and Gerecht got it wrong. Wow. It's almost as if government "experts" don't know everything.

Guildofcannonballs said...

"Even more significantly, they are actively exploring an EMP strike against the entire continental US, launched from a missile carrier in the Atlantic."

Wow, humans are thinking about scenarios like that?

Wow.

AND THEY AIN'T EVEN AMERICAN!!

Oh shit, Ima bout the light this mofo up!!!

Only we can consider thoughts verboten, because of our advancement and all.

Really, have actions ever meant less?

Sprezzatura said...

JFarm,

You don't understand that us changing the leadership in Iran with an extremely minimal presence will result in a victory.

Just like happened last time we did that there.

Yur dumb.

narciso said...

The oranians want to see what they can get away with, recall this happened the same day there was a Houthi attack on a Saudi airport.

Guildofcannonballs said...

As a non-active explorer, I can tell you tings.

I sure can tell you tings.

narciso said...

But I pointed out how it could go sideways fast.

Guildofcannonballs said...

It's not the show itself, but the regimene.

The 8-10 Sunday through Friday.

But you know what they did, I ain't making this up, they changed it. No more Sunday.

Now Sunday is Kojak.

I love the shots of NY and appreciate the talent of everyone involved.

So M-F The Office on Cozi or Khozi or sometin' and Kojak on Sunday.



narciso said...

The former, they have the six million dollar man on Saturdays and sundays

Guildofcannonballs said...

http://www.skeptictank.org/white.htm

Packers' Reggie White
Spouts Insane
Extremist Bigotry and Hate
---Rod:

"When you put all of that together, guess what it makes: It forms a complete image of God," White said.

"When you put all of this message together, guess what it makes?: A lying, racist, homophobic bigot of the big JuJu," Swift said...Packers' White discusses 'sin' homosexuality in speech..CBS SportsLine wire reports
March 25, 1998..MADISON, Wis. -- Most people invited to speak to the Wisconsin Legislature give five minutes of pleasantries, get a few moments of applause and go home...Lawmakers weren't expecting the earful Reggie White had in store for them Wednesday...They thought the Green Bay Packers star and ordained minister came to talk about his community work and a recent trip to Israel...White did, but his nearly hour-long speech also included remarks on homosexuality, race and slavery that turned the Assembly's applause to stunned silence.

White said the United States has gotten away from God, in part by allowing homosexuality to "run rampant."

HOMOSEXUALITY IS a sin, and the plight of gays and lesbians should not be compared to that of blacks, White told lawmakers.

"Homosexuality is a decision, it's not a race," White said. "People from all different ethnic backgrounds live in this lifestyle. But people from all different ethnic backgrounds also are liars and cheaters and malicious and back-stabbing."

White said he has thought about why God created different races. Each race has certain gifts, he said.

Blacks are gifted at worship and celebration, White said.

"If you go to a black church, you see people jumping up and down because they really get into it," he said.

Whites are good at organization, White said.

"You guys do a good job of building businesses and things of that nature, and you know how to tap into money," he said.

"Hispanics were gifted in family structure, and you can see a Hispanic person, and they can put 20, 30 people in one home."

THE JAPANESE AND other Asians are inventive, and "can turn a television into a watch," White said. Indians are gifted in spirituality, he said.

"When you put all of that together, guess what it makes: It forms a complete image of God," White said.

White said later that his comments were about coming together as a society and were not meant to stereotype the races.

"This is the first time I've been at a loss for words," Assembly Minority Leader Walter Kunicki, D-Milwaukee, said after White's speech. "You can still tell from the tension in the room that much of this was offensive."

White was invited to speak by Assembly Speaker Scott Jensen, R-Waukesha.

Jensen called White's comments about homosexuality "disappointing." Homosexuality is a genetic predisposition, not a decision, Jensen said.

Rep. Tammy Baldwin, a Madison Democrat and the Legislature's only openly gay member, said she disagreed with White's remarks, but as a lawmaker believed in putting aside personal feelings to promote a "healthy debate."

CBS SPORTS spokeswoman Leslie Ann Wade declined to comment on White's speech or whether his remarks would affect his chances for a studio analyst's job. White has auditioned for a commentating job at the network.

CBS fired football analyst Jimmy "The Greek" Snyder in 1988 for saying that blacks had been "bred from slavery" to make better athletes.

"CBS doesn't accept bias from any of its announcers of any kind," Wade said.

White declined to comment on whether he will leave the Packers before the 1998 season.

---

The views and opinions stated within this web page are those of the author or authors which wrote them and may not reflect the views and opinions of the ISP or account user which hosts the web page.
Return to The Skeptic Tank's main Index page.

E-Mail Fredric L. Rice / The Skeptic Tank

Guildofcannonballs said...

Reggie White is the greatest Packer of all time.

Guildofcannonballs said...

I am sure that victim Baldwin would love to replay her pain pain pain.

Pain inconceivable.

Tottally real. It could make her potUS that pain, because of the pain pain pain.

Guildofcannonballs said...

Washington v. Lincoln I always side with the originator.

But White V. Lombardi I take White.

White owns the Greatest Packer Ever legend.

Guildofcannonballs said...

I would never say that, and Vince knows, unless we all, Reggie firstly foremostly, that the greatest coach of all time in anything is of course whom the NFL names its trophy after.

Coach-wise now.

Guildofcannonballs said...

Vince grew up with blood und guts as a hero.

You know. Ol' 'slap the shell-shocked' Patton.

What do you know?

Guildofcannonballs said...

If J. Wooden didn't say, and dollars to donuts I bet he has but give fuck all to look it up, Vince Lombardi was and remains the best coach of all time regardless anything.

I think Bellicek would agree with me.

He sees what he is and has done as almost childish to Vince creating the NFL in 1965.

Guildofcannonballs said...

Trump should voice support for an only Black owner's league.

Tempt him, more, please.

Guildofcannonballs said...

What % of young, ultra-tough, aggressive, take-no-prisnor warriors also like getting paid instead of going off to Obama's jails?

Obama can take those jails and shove 'em.

Josephbleau said...

The problem with Iran is, that it is full of Iranians. Edward Longshanks knew his trade.

Josephbleau said...

Actually in contra to my quip above. In the south south suburbs there are many Iranian groups of doctors and shop keepers who are the salt of the earth. But hate Israel and would admittedly hide a terrorist if asked. These folks are some of my wife’s friends.

Freder Frederson said...

I'm not suggesting that we occupy Iran. I don't see the need. Again, the scope of war can be limited, devastating, and short. With no navy and no air force, their ground forces would be extremely vulnerable. That's not a gamble that a government, that wants to stay in power, would be willing to risk.

Although I am sure we could indeed destroy the Iranian military and cause the complete collapse of the regime fairly easily, the question is what then? I don't know what your rank is, but you are thinking tactically, not strategically. I guarantee you, the general officers and senior civilians at the Pentagon are having entirely different discussions. Do we really want another Libya stuck between Iraq and Afghanistan?

As for Trump, he may indeed not want war (since he is changes his mind so often, I don't think he holds any beliefs sincerely), there are certainly people whispering in his ear (e.g., Bolton and Pompeo) who would like nothing more than to go to war with Iran.

War with Iran would be an unmitigated disaster for the entire world.

And it is rich that we complain about oppressive Iran while the even more oppressive Saudi Arabia and the UAE are our best buds.

Freder Frederson said...

Oh my God, we have a complete blithering idiot invading the thread. Ann, please block GuildofCannonballs. I bet even Michael K. would agree with me on this one.

Fen said...

Farmer: Saying you oppose nation-building is not a response to that critique

I think he is responding to this point you made:

16 years out on the Iraq War

American forces neutered Iraq in the span of 30 days, their military and political leadership rendered impotent. Saddam was caught 8 months later hiding in a hole outside of Ad-Dawr.

Your "16 years out" includes the additional 15 years we spent nation building. Hence his response that we won't bother with 15 years of nation-building is a valid response to your critique.

And I think you are wrong about Iraq. We should have stayed.

Fen said...

Freder: I don't know what your rank is, but... I guarantee you, the general officers and senior civilians at the Pentagon are having entirely different discussions

You have NO IDEA what they are discussing.

bbear said...

It seems largely to have been forgotten that Britain and Russia invaded Iran in 1941, partitioned it between them, and occupied it for the duration of the war.

President-Mom-Jeans said...

Oh, the Commmie Freder wants mama althouse to censor people. Boo fucking hoo. Consume a satchel of phalli, you disgusting pinko douchebag.

Freder Frederson said...

You have NO IDEA what they are discussing.

No I don't know what they are specifically discussing. But their job is to think strategically and "what happens after we destroy Iran's economy and military and then walk away" is something they better goddamn be thinking about. And before you bring up Obama's fiasco in Libya, that was a disaster because he didn't bother to think about what would happen after Qaddafi was deposed. Hopefully, we can learn from our mistakes.

Freder Frederson said...

Oh, the Commmie Freder wants mama althouse to censor people. Boo fucking hoo. Consume a satchel of phalli, you disgusting pinko douchebag.

If his comments were on the subject of the post or made the least bit of sense, I wouldn't want to censor him. But they were neither.

Caligula said...

Iran is a regional power, the USA remains a superpower. And thus the logic becomes, (superpower > regional power).

And, indeed, the USA could decapitate Iran and Iran could not do so to the USA.

At least not yet, as it has not yet acquired our age's "great equalizer," nuclear weapons. Once it does it will effectively be protected against invasion.

Thus, the obvious question remains: Does the USA have any options to prevent Iran going nuclear and, if not, can we live with that?

J. Farmer said...

@Fen:

Hence his response that we won't bother with 15 years of nation-building is a valid response to your critique.

The Iraq War was sold as a short conflict. We did not go into it with the intention of staying 15+ years. However, conflicts once started have a way of escalating. And considering that we have yet to extricate ourselves from two wars we thought would be relatively quick and easy victories should give one pause before starting another war, regardless if one intends to nation-build or not.

J. Farmer said...

@Caligula:

Thus, the obvious question remains: Does the USA have any options to prevent Iran going nuclear and, if not, can we live with that?

We had one, and the current administration decided to violate the agreement without cause, pull out of it, and reimpose sanctions on the regime in support of a "maximum pressure" strategy and a "better deal." But of course the anti-Iran fanatics like Pompeo and Bolton in the administration and Cotton in Congress don't want a "better deal." They want escalation and conflict.

Robert Cook said...

"'An Iraq War Won't Destabilize the Mideast'

"Perhaps we should be wary of following Mr. Gerecht's sage advice."


Especially since the Middle East has been destabilized for, oh, at least the past 17 years or so. Only a dolt can't recognize specious bullshit such as this as pro-war propaganda.

Robert Cook said...

"Prudent people are wary, and that's a good thing, but there are also times when action is called for. I think this is one of those times."

Why? We are not at risk of an attack by Iran. Absent a self-defense necessity, (or approval by the UN Security Council), attacking Iran would be, as with Iraq, a war crime. Anyone speaking about attacking Iran, when we have failed (or choose not) to disentangle ourselves from our other middle east quagmires, is not just imprudent, but insane.

Robert Cook said...

"The Mullahs need to topple. Free the people of Iran."

That's for the people of Iran to do, not us. In attempting to topple the Mullahs to "free the people," we will end up killing, maiming and rendering homeless hundreds of thousands or millions of those Iranians you say we should free.

J. Farmer said...

“Personally, I think, uh... they don't really want to be involved in this war. You know, I mean... they sort of took away our freedom and gave it to the, to the gookers, you know. But they don't want it. They'd rather be alive than free, I guess. Poor dumb bastards.”

-Private Eightball, Full Metal Jacket

Robert Cook said...


Hmmm...maybe the U.S. or one of our strategic allies in the region used drones to shot missles at the Japanese oil tankers.
(Other U.S. skullduggery also discussed.)

Fen said...

Farmer: We had one, and the current administration decided to violate the agreement without cause, pull out of it, and reimpose sanctions on the regime

You think the old deal was an attempt to STOP Iran from nuking up?

J. Farmer said...

@Fen:

You think the old deal was an attempt to STOP Iran from nuking up?

Indeed it was. If you have evidence to the contrary, please provide it. If you, like many of the commenters here want to simply assert it was a bad deal, then I will quote David Lewis: "I don't know how to refute an incredulous stare."

ken in tx said...

If you don't appreciate Guildofcannonballs, that probably means that you have not been around here as long as he has.